Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast, your home
Speaker 1: for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
Speaker 1: On your way in a Please sit that subscribe button
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Speaker 1: comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such
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Speaker 1: and review. Folks, for all the dads that are watching listening,
Speaker 1: Happy Father's Day, I hope you had a great day.
Speaker 1: Let's kick it off by talking about bitcoin, because obviously
Speaker 1: there's macro uncertainty out there with the war between Israel
Speaker 1: and Iran, and of course wars are never a good thing.
Speaker 1: You have a lot of innocent people that lose their
Speaker 1: lives and you go through a lot of hardships. You know,
Speaker 1: I don't think I need to go through that. But
Speaker 1: the question is is this ending the crypto bullmarket? Is
Speaker 1: this going to stop everything? Right? That is the big question.
Speaker 1: That is something a lot of people are talking about
Speaker 1: and with the uncertainty around it, and I want to
Speaker 1: take a look at the charts, and I also want
Speaker 1: to remind you that remember the Russia Ukraine War. Remember
Speaker 1: COVID and they're shut down the the economy. Do those
Speaker 1: things stop the bull markets? They did not, because bull
Speaker 1: markets are not tied to these things, they're tied to
Speaker 1: global liquidity, any software financial cycle. So we of course
Speaker 1: went through the quantitative tightening cycle. Starting at the top
Speaker 1: of the last bullmarket, which was about November December twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one, the Fed came out, started raising rates, stopped
Speaker 1: purchasing securities, and much more, stop supporting the markets, and
Speaker 1: then full bear market. Then they pause rate heights and
Speaker 1: central banks around the globe started printing money again, and
Speaker 1: global liquidity has been on the rise since. So we're
Speaker 1: still in a bullmarket by those respective signals and metrics,
Speaker 1: and we're going to talk a bit much about that,
Speaker 1: but I want to make sure that you understand that
Speaker 1: despite war being a bad thing, or they're being bad
Speaker 1: news or things like that, it doesn't mean the bullmarket
Speaker 1: it's over. So we have to pay attention to the facts,
Speaker 1: the data of the metrics, not our emotions, because yes
Speaker 1: we can feel feared, Yes we can feel uncertainty and
Speaker 1: feel bad about what's happening in the war and much more,
Speaker 1: but that does not mean the bull market's over. So
Speaker 1: Bitcoin on the daily chart still hovering around the one
Speaker 1: hundred and three to one hundred and five thousand level.
Speaker 1: I think we could potentially keep going down and touch
Speaker 1: ninety eight k, a kind of a key support level there.
Speaker 1: We are still comfortably above the two hundred day moving average,
Speaker 1: and as I always say, nothing good happens below the
Speaker 1: two hundred day moving average. If you're below it at
Speaker 1: an extended period of time in a downtrend, that's a
Speaker 1: bear market. But if you're above it and you've got
Speaker 1: an uptrend like we've been seeing, we're in a bull market.
Speaker 1: So I know that's a very simplistic way of looking
Speaker 1: at it, and it's just one metric. We're going to
Speaker 1: look at multiple things. But overall, things are still on
Speaker 1: track here despite the headwinds and the volatility we may face.
Speaker 1: If you look at the stock market, specifically the S
Speaker 1: and P five hundred, we have v shaped recovered out
Speaker 1: of that Tarerff crash that took place in March and April,
Speaker 1: and the stock market is cooling down a bit, but
Speaker 1: nothing goes up in a straight line. It is above
Speaker 1: the two hundred day moving average as well, and here
Speaker 1: Titan of crypto Analysts on x highlighted bitcoin from a
Speaker 1: weekly standpoint, said Bitcoin is sitting right at the key
Speaker 1: structural level holding it would preserve the bullet structure. The
Speaker 1: weekly clothes will be crucial. So we're seeing bitcoin still
Speaker 1: holding the key support levels, which is good. And some
Speaker 1: of the macro metrics that we've been following for a
Speaker 1: long time, such as global liquidity shows global equidity continues
Speaker 1: to rise. So this is all the central banks around
Speaker 1: the globe and what they've been doing as far as
Speaker 1: currency debasement and more liquidity goes into the economy, the
Speaker 1: markets and much more. That there is a lag you know,
Speaker 1: bitcoin and other risk assets lag global equity by three months.
Speaker 1: So everything is still on track here. Now if there's
Speaker 1: a deviation, we'll go back to the drawing board and say, okay,
Speaker 1: what happened right what was the catalyst that changed? But
Speaker 1: right now it's still on track. And in addition, the DXY,
Speaker 1: the Dollar currency index continues to break down. And here
Speaker 1: the folks at Global Macro investor Julian Battel, who works
Speaker 1: with Rol Powell, showed in the last Trump administration when
Speaker 1: they were looking for a week dollar. Because of course
Speaker 1: that's great for risk assets and the markets and much more.
Speaker 1: We see the current dxy pattern in this downtrend is
Speaker 1: following that as well, so there's room for this to
Speaker 1: keep going down, and of course that's very good for
Speaker 1: risk assets. So you see these macro metrics, if you
Speaker 1: want to call them, that are aligning to bull market. Right,
Speaker 1: all feelings and emotions aside. You're going to see people say,
Speaker 1: see that's it, it's over see war. Yet they would
Speaker 1: simply forget about the Ukraine Russia war when everybody was
Speaker 1: saying the same thing, see war. No oh bullmarket. Bull
Speaker 1: market's canceled this time around, And it's like, yeah, that's
Speaker 1: just sentiment, that's just your emotions that is not based
Speaker 1: on data. So the data is showing is something very different. Now,
Speaker 1: if you go to the Fed's website, you look at
Speaker 1: the M two money supply, and you know we were
Speaker 1: just talking about global liquidity. Look at this. It is
Speaker 1: just spiking going higher and higher. So they've got some
Speaker 1: pseudo quantitative easing going on here. They're inserting liquidity in
Speaker 1: different ways, so the numbers don't lie here. And of course,
Speaker 1: like I said, assets are correlated to this. I love
Speaker 1: what expert traders Fenn Henrik had to say. You usually
Speaker 1: see him on CNBC. He says, all I know is
Speaker 1: that the final missile will be QE. He's absolutely right.
Speaker 1: Whether it's war or COVID or whatever it is, what
Speaker 1: are they going to have to do? Print right? This
Speaker 1: is the status quo. There's no way around it. This
Speaker 1: is the Fiat system, and your asset prices will rise
Speaker 1: as a result. So that's why you want to be
Speaker 1: positioned in assets. You want to buy the dims, buy
Speaker 1: the blood on the street, and of course sell the
Speaker 1: blow off top, sell the euphoric reed phase. That is
Speaker 1: what we're looking to do. This bullmarket's not over. Now.
Speaker 1: Let's validate this thesis with some more data on chain.
Speaker 1: Data from Sentiment shows Bitcoin whales with ten or more
Speaker 1: bitcoin in their wallets continue to accumulate. There was a
Speaker 1: massive spike at the end of May into early June
Speaker 1: and that calmed down a bit, but now it's slowly
Speaker 1: on the rise again. So the whales are not exiting
Speaker 1: the market. They continue to accumulate. So when I look
Speaker 1: at all these things global liquidity, DXY, the stock market,
Speaker 1: the bitcoin chart, and the structures that are still in place,
Speaker 1: and whales keep accumulating. I have all the respective facts
Speaker 1: and there's more, but these are the key ones that
Speaker 1: we are still in the bullmarket despite what the news
Speaker 1: tells you, despite what people will post, Oh it's over
Speaker 1: see fear or fear fear. They want you to feel fear,
Speaker 1: but they won't give you any data. They won't give
Speaker 1: you any chart analysis, they won't give you on chain data,
Speaker 1: they won't say look at the macro, despite what's going
Speaker 1: on in the news. So guys, make sure you're listening
Speaker 1: and watching the right things and not falling for nonsense
Speaker 1: and people who are pushing fear. And on the topic
Speaker 1: of whales accumulating, we are seeing bitcoin ETFs, so we're
Speaker 1: talking black rock and all the big issuers continue to
Speaker 1: see inflows, so they're not seeing out of flows despite
Speaker 1: the geopolitical tensions. So here the headline bitcoin ETFs record
Speaker 1: five day inflow streak amid geopolitical tension. So people are
Speaker 1: buying the dips and buying the fear. And look, that's
Speaker 1: the principle of markets, as Warren Buffett said, right, be
Speaker 1: greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
Speaker 1: If you've been here long enough. You know the cycles folks.
Speaker 1: You know that when the grandma's and taxicab drivers and
Speaker 1: uber drivers are talking about crypto investment and everybody's bullish
Speaker 1: and they think it's not going to end, it's going
Speaker 1: to keep going, that's when you want to be fearful.
Speaker 1: I know it seems weird to say that despite once
Speaker 1: again war in the Middle East, and look, there's always
Speaker 1: been war in the Middle East. I mean, it's been
Speaker 1: going on forever. But regardless of these things that are happening,
Speaker 1: you got to look at the data to see what's happening,
Speaker 1: especially global liquidity, and I'll tell you the story of
Speaker 1: where things are going. So in flows continue here and
Speaker 1: look at this, Michael Saylor says he's looking to buy
Speaker 1: bitcoin despite the Israel Iran conflict, so we could hear
Speaker 1: an announcement tomorrow that you know, him and the folks
Speaker 1: of Strategy bought some bitcoins. So I think the signs
Speaker 1: are there right in multiple ways. The signs are there
Speaker 1: as to where we're at and where we're going. So
Speaker 1: at this point we've got to be patient. And I
Speaker 1: know that's a big part that people struggle with the patients.
Speaker 1: I want the money. Now, I've been waiting too long.
Speaker 1: I'm tired of all these things. Leave your emotions at
Speaker 1: the door. If you leave your emotions and just look
Speaker 1: at the data, it becomes a lot easier. And if
Speaker 1: looking at the price bothers, you take a break from it.
Speaker 1: If nothing's happening right now, bigqoin's just consolidating, and in fact,
Speaker 1: you may go lower before we go higher. Then step
Speaker 1: away from the charts. That's a great thing to do.
Speaker 1: I do that. I don't look at my portfolio on
Speaker 1: days like this and when things like this are happening.
Speaker 1: I've mentioned that before. I don't open my you know,
Speaker 1: lead Treasure sweet or or hardware wallets sweet and you know,
Speaker 1: take a look at my portfolio value. I just don't
Speaker 1: do it. I've learned my lesson because look, it sucks
Speaker 1: to see your portfolio declining or even in some sort
Speaker 1: of pullback despite being up significantly from the bear market bottom.
Speaker 1: So we're all human and we get to do the
Speaker 1: things that help us to navigate the markets. Now, folks,
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Speaker 1: links will be in the description. Now here's some interesting news.
Speaker 1: We know Trump and his companies, quite a few of
Speaker 1: them are involving crypto. You got Word Liberty, financially, you
Speaker 1: got Trump Media, a truth social all getting involved with
Speaker 1: crypto in one way or the other. So here's the headline,
Speaker 1: Trump Media clears sec hurdle for two point three billion
Speaker 1: dollars share resale. So many may recall they are looking
Speaker 1: to do a bitcoin treasury strategy and they raise two
Speaker 1: point three billion dollars to buy bitcoins. So incredible, And
Speaker 1: then you got truth Social If I'm not mistaken, they're
Speaker 1: looking to launch a bitcoin ETF, and of course we're
Speaker 1: Liberty Financial. The only thing I'm not a fan of
Speaker 1: is the meme coin, but it is what it is
Speaker 1: at this point. But Trump is making progress. And once
Speaker 1: again read between the lines here. You could hate Donald
Speaker 1: Trump or you could love him. That's not the point, right,
Speaker 1: put that to the side. How you feel about the man.
Speaker 1: Just look at the business moves he's making, what his
Speaker 1: kids are doing. If you know Trump, he's about making money.
Speaker 1: He wouldn't be doing this to lose money. He knows
Speaker 1: legislation's coming, he knows his markets are going to go higher.
Speaker 1: So he's positioning himself, especially around crypto, because he knows
Speaker 1: it's going to go higher. I don't think he's going
Speaker 1: to do this to lose his money. All of a sudden,
Speaker 1: bear bull market's over. We're entering too a bear market.
Speaker 1: And everything goes down by eighty percent. Obviously he's not
Speaker 1: going to do that. So again read between the lines,
Speaker 1: right and once get all politics, all feelings aside. Once again,
Speaker 1: if you hate their love the man, that's not the point.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at this strictly from an investment standpoint of
Speaker 1: who's making what moves, who's getting involved. Watch what they do,
Speaker 1: not what they say, right, folks. So this is a
Speaker 1: very bullish sign. Now, something interesting came up. Someone on
Speaker 1: x tweeted about how if you go on coinbase, right,
Speaker 1: and bitcoin is currently trading at one hundred and five thousand,
Speaker 1: three hundred dollars, but if you look to buy some
Speaker 1: of that bigcoin at that price, they charge you one
Speaker 1: hundred and six thousand, nine hundred and if you want
Speaker 1: to sell, it's one hundred and three nine fifty. Why
Speaker 1: is that it's fees? Right? There's a markup, and these
Speaker 1: exchanges are making a lot of money. And Eric Balchuniz,
Speaker 1: who's an ETF expert at Bloomberg, says, like I've been saying,
Speaker 1: crypto exchanges have commissions that would make a nineteen seventy
Speaker 1: stockbroker blush, especially for newbies. No wonder ETF's growing like wildfire.
Speaker 1: They blow this shit out of the water. So he's saying,
Speaker 1: and it's along the lines what I've been saying for
Speaker 1: a long time. These crypto exchanges better up their game
Speaker 1: because Wall Street's here for the takeover and they're going
Speaker 1: to look to steal market share from these crypto exchanges,
Speaker 1: whether it be coinbase and binance and much more, because
Speaker 1: they charge a very low fee and they're able to
Speaker 1: do that because they're dealing with volume, right and they
Speaker 1: have the brand, they have the existing customer base, and
Speaker 1: you know, they're pushing this to the mainstream. While crypto exchanges,
Speaker 1: don't get me wrong, are catering to mainstream, but they're
Speaker 1: not able to make that major push like a blow
Speaker 1: Rocker Fidelity, which is already established, you know what I mean.
Speaker 1: So these crypto exchanges better watch what they're doing. If
Speaker 1: they're going to charge an arm and a leg, they're
Speaker 1: gonna lose business to people who are gonna go with
Speaker 1: et aps. And if the tradi fi folks start saying
Speaker 1: stuff about the exchanges like, hey, you got to be
Speaker 1: careful with these guys. You can't custody with them. They
Speaker 1: don't know what they're doing. Trust us. We've been doing
Speaker 1: this for a long time, longer than they have. Right,
Speaker 1: that's a plausible narrative to put out there to take
Speaker 1: business away. Right. I'm not saying I want all these
Speaker 1: things to happen. I'm just thinking logically here of what
Speaker 1: may take place. So it's something that you need to
Speaker 1: be aware of. Now. You know, exchanges like Coinbase and
Speaker 1: even other platforms have advanced features like Coinbase has the
Speaker 1: advanced feature where the fees are lower, but you got
Speaker 1: to know what you're doing as far as doing these things.
Speaker 1: You can set limit orders for buy and sell, and
Speaker 1: there's a maker taker fee, but it's not like you
Speaker 1: know what they're charging here. So something to keep in mind.
Speaker 1: And like I said, if these exchanges don't up their game,
Speaker 1: Wall Street's going to come in and say, hey, the ETFs,
Speaker 1: you don't have to worry about anything. We've custodied your
Speaker 1: traditional assets like stocks and gold and much more. We're
Speaker 1: gonna cust to your crypto for you, and it'll be
Speaker 1: a lot easier for you then going to exchanges and
Speaker 1: much more. So this is just an interesting conversation that
Speaker 1: took place today that I think you guys should know
Speaker 1: about and be aware of with with how exchanges charge
Speaker 1: fees and the markups and much more. Folks, that's the news.
Speaker 1: Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and
Speaker 1: comments below hit the thumbs up button. A great way
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Speaker 1: my course at mycrypto course dot com. Thank you for
Speaker 1: watching and listening. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk
Speaker 1: to you all later