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<v Speaker 1>Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast, your home

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<v Speaker 1>for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.

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<v Speaker 1>On your way in a Please sit that subscribe button

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<v Speaker 1>as well as the thumbs up button and leave a

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<v Speaker 1>comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such

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<v Speaker 1>as Spotify or Apple Police, leave a five star rating

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<v Speaker 1>and review. Folks, for all the dads that are watching listening,

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<v Speaker 1>Happy Father's Day, I hope you had a great day.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's kick it off by talking about bitcoin, because obviously

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<v Speaker 1>there's macro uncertainty out there with the war between Israel

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<v Speaker 1>and Iran, and of course wars are never a good thing.

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<v Speaker 1>You have a lot of innocent people that lose their

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<v Speaker 1>lives and you go through a lot of hardships. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think I need to go through that. But

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<v Speaker 1>the question is is this ending the crypto bullmarket? Is

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<v Speaker 1>this going to stop everything? Right? That is the big question.

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<v Speaker 1>That is something a lot of people are talking about

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<v Speaker 1>and with the uncertainty around it, and I want to

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<v Speaker 1>take a look at the charts, and I also want

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<v Speaker 1>to remind you that remember the Russia Ukraine War. Remember

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<v Speaker 1>COVID and they're shut down the the economy. Do those

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<v Speaker 1>things stop the bull markets? They did not, because bull

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<v Speaker 1>markets are not tied to these things, they're tied to

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<v Speaker 1>global liquidity, any software financial cycle. So we of course

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<v Speaker 1>went through the quantitative tightening cycle. Starting at the top

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<v Speaker 1>of the last bullmarket, which was about November December twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one, the Fed came out, started raising rates, stopped

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<v Speaker 1>purchasing securities, and much more, stop supporting the markets, and

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<v Speaker 1>then full bear market. Then they pause rate heights and

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<v Speaker 1>central banks around the globe started printing money again, and

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<v Speaker 1>global liquidity has been on the rise since. So we're

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<v Speaker 1>still in a bullmarket by those respective signals and metrics,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're going to talk a bit much about that,

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<v Speaker 1>but I want to make sure that you understand that

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<v Speaker 1>despite war being a bad thing, or they're being bad

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<v Speaker 1>news or things like that, it doesn't mean the bullmarket

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<v Speaker 1>it's over. So we have to pay attention to the facts,

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<v Speaker 1>the data of the metrics, not our emotions, because yes

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<v Speaker 1>we can feel feared, Yes we can feel uncertainty and

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<v Speaker 1>feel bad about what's happening in the war and much more,

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<v Speaker 1>but that does not mean the bull market's over. So

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin on the daily chart still hovering around the one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and three to one hundred and five thousand level.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we could potentially keep going down and touch

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<v Speaker 1>ninety eight k, a kind of a key support level there.

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<v Speaker 1>We are still comfortably above the two hundred day moving average,

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<v Speaker 1>and as I always say, nothing good happens below the

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred day moving average. If you're below it at

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<v Speaker 1>an extended period of time in a downtrend, that's a

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<v Speaker 1>bear market. But if you're above it and you've got

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<v Speaker 1>an uptrend like we've been seeing, we're in a bull market.

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<v Speaker 1>So I know that's a very simplistic way of looking

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<v Speaker 1>at it, and it's just one metric. We're going to

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<v Speaker 1>look at multiple things. But overall, things are still on

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<v Speaker 1>track here despite the headwinds and the volatility we may face.

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<v Speaker 1>If you look at the stock market, specifically the S

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<v Speaker 1>and P five hundred, we have v shaped recovered out

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<v Speaker 1>of that Tarerff crash that took place in March and April,

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<v Speaker 1>and the stock market is cooling down a bit, but

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<v Speaker 1>nothing goes up in a straight line. It is above

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<v Speaker 1>the two hundred day moving average as well, and here

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<v Speaker 1>Titan of crypto Analysts on x highlighted bitcoin from a

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<v Speaker 1>weekly standpoint, said Bitcoin is sitting right at the key

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<v Speaker 1>structural level holding it would preserve the bullet structure. The

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<v Speaker 1>weekly clothes will be crucial. So we're seeing bitcoin still

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<v Speaker 1>holding the key support levels, which is good. And some

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<v Speaker 1>of the macro metrics that we've been following for a

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<v Speaker 1>long time, such as global liquidity shows global equidity continues

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<v Speaker 1>to rise. So this is all the central banks around

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<v Speaker 1>the globe and what they've been doing as far as

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<v Speaker 1>currency debasement and more liquidity goes into the economy, the

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<v Speaker 1>markets and much more. That there is a lag you know,

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin and other risk assets lag global equity by three months.

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<v Speaker 1>So everything is still on track here. Now if there's

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<v Speaker 1>a deviation, we'll go back to the drawing board and say, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>what happened right what was the catalyst that changed? But

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<v Speaker 1>right now it's still on track. And in addition, the DXY,

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<v Speaker 1>the Dollar currency index continues to break down. And here

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<v Speaker 1>the folks at Global Macro investor Julian Battel, who works

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<v Speaker 1>with Rol Powell, showed in the last Trump administration when

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<v Speaker 1>they were looking for a week dollar. Because of course

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<v Speaker 1>that's great for risk assets and the markets and much more.

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<v Speaker 1>We see the current dxy pattern in this downtrend is

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<v Speaker 1>following that as well, so there's room for this to

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<v Speaker 1>keep going down, and of course that's very good for

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<v Speaker 1>risk assets. So you see these macro metrics, if you

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<v Speaker 1>want to call them, that are aligning to bull market. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>all feelings and emotions aside. You're going to see people say,

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<v Speaker 1>see that's it, it's over see war. Yet they would

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<v Speaker 1>simply forget about the Ukraine Russia war when everybody was

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<v Speaker 1>saying the same thing, see war. No oh bullmarket. Bull

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<v Speaker 1>market's canceled this time around, And it's like, yeah, that's

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<v Speaker 1>just sentiment, that's just your emotions that is not based

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<v Speaker 1>on data. So the data is showing is something very different. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>if you go to the Fed's website, you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the M two money supply, and you know we were

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<v Speaker 1>just talking about global liquidity. Look at this. It is

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<v Speaker 1>just spiking going higher and higher. So they've got some

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<v Speaker 1>pseudo quantitative easing going on here. They're inserting liquidity in

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<v Speaker 1>different ways, so the numbers don't lie here. And of course,

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<v Speaker 1>like I said, assets are correlated to this. I love

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<v Speaker 1>what expert traders Fenn Henrik had to say. You usually

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<v Speaker 1>see him on CNBC. He says, all I know is

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<v Speaker 1>that the final missile will be QE. He's absolutely right.

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<v Speaker 1>Whether it's war or COVID or whatever it is, what

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<v Speaker 1>are they going to have to do? Print right? This

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<v Speaker 1>is the status quo. There's no way around it. This

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<v Speaker 1>is the Fiat system, and your asset prices will rise

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<v Speaker 1>as a result. So that's why you want to be

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<v Speaker 1>positioned in assets. You want to buy the dims, buy

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<v Speaker 1>the blood on the street, and of course sell the

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<v Speaker 1>blow off top, sell the euphoric reed phase. That is

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<v Speaker 1>what we're looking to do. This bullmarket's not over. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's validate this thesis with some more data on chain.

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<v Speaker 1>Data from Sentiment shows Bitcoin whales with ten or more

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin in their wallets continue to accumulate. There was a

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<v Speaker 1>massive spike at the end of May into early June

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<v Speaker 1>and that calmed down a bit, but now it's slowly

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<v Speaker 1>on the rise again. So the whales are not exiting

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<v Speaker 1>the market. They continue to accumulate. So when I look

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<v Speaker 1>at all these things global liquidity, DXY, the stock market,

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<v Speaker 1>the bitcoin chart, and the structures that are still in place,

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<v Speaker 1>and whales keep accumulating. I have all the respective facts

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<v Speaker 1>and there's more, but these are the key ones that

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<v Speaker 1>we are still in the bullmarket despite what the news

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<v Speaker 1>tells you, despite what people will post, Oh it's over

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<v Speaker 1>see fear or fear fear. They want you to feel fear,

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<v Speaker 1>but they won't give you any data. They won't give

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<v Speaker 1>you any chart analysis, they won't give you on chain data,

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<v Speaker 1>they won't say look at the macro, despite what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on in the news. So guys, make sure you're listening

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<v Speaker 1>and watching the right things and not falling for nonsense

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<v Speaker 1>and people who are pushing fear. And on the topic

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<v Speaker 1>of whales accumulating, we are seeing bitcoin ETFs, so we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking black rock and all the big issuers continue to

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<v Speaker 1>see inflows, so they're not seeing out of flows despite

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<v Speaker 1>the geopolitical tensions. So here the headline bitcoin ETFs record

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<v Speaker 1>five day inflow streak amid geopolitical tension. So people are

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<v Speaker 1>buying the dips and buying the fear. And look, that's

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<v Speaker 1>the principle of markets, as Warren Buffett said, right, be

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<v Speaker 1>greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

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<v Speaker 1>If you've been here long enough. You know the cycles folks.

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<v Speaker 1>You know that when the grandma's and taxicab drivers and

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<v Speaker 1>uber drivers are talking about crypto investment and everybody's bullish

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<v Speaker 1>and they think it's not going to end, it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to keep going, that's when you want to be fearful.

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<v Speaker 1>I know it seems weird to say that despite once

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<v Speaker 1>again war in the Middle East, and look, there's always

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<v Speaker 1>been war in the Middle East. I mean, it's been

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<v Speaker 1>going on forever. But regardless of these things that are happening,

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<v Speaker 1>you got to look at the data to see what's happening,

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<v Speaker 1>especially global liquidity, and I'll tell you the story of

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<v Speaker 1>where things are going. So in flows continue here and

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<v Speaker 1>look at this, Michael Saylor says he's looking to buy

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin despite the Israel Iran conflict, so we could hear

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<v Speaker 1>an announcement tomorrow that you know, him and the folks

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<v Speaker 1>of Strategy bought some bitcoins. So I think the signs

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<v Speaker 1>are there right in multiple ways. The signs are there

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<v Speaker 1>as to where we're at and where we're going. So

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<v Speaker 1>at this point we've got to be patient. And I

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<v Speaker 1>know that's a big part that people struggle with the patients.

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<v Speaker 1>I want the money. Now, I've been waiting too long.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm tired of all these things. Leave your emotions at

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<v Speaker 1>the door. If you leave your emotions and just look

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<v Speaker 1>at the data, it becomes a lot easier. And if

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the price bothers, you take a break from it.

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<v Speaker 1>If nothing's happening right now, bigqoin's just consolidating, and in fact,

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<v Speaker 1>you may go lower before we go higher. Then step

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<v Speaker 1>away from the charts. That's a great thing to do.

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<v Speaker 1>I do that. I don't look at my portfolio on

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<v Speaker 1>days like this and when things like this are happening.

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<v Speaker 1>I've mentioned that before. I don't open my you know,

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<v Speaker 1>lead Treasure sweet or or hardware wallets sweet and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>take a look at my portfolio value. I just don't

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<v Speaker 1>do it. I've learned my lesson because look, it sucks

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<v Speaker 1>to see your portfolio declining or even in some sort

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<v Speaker 1>of pullback despite being up significantly from the bear market bottom.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're all human and we get to do the

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<v Speaker 1>things that help us to navigate the markets. Now, folks,

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<v Speaker 1>quick word from our sponsor, and that is Treasure makes

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<v Speaker 1>safely store your crypto I'm a user of the product.

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<v Speaker 1>I use the Treasure Save five and Treasure they were

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<v Speaker 1>the ones that created hardware wallets. They started doing this

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty thirteen. They created the seed phrase setup and

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<v Speaker 1>much more. And Treasure supports all your major crypto tokens Bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 1>e Theorem, XRP, Solana and all the latest tokens as well.

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<v Speaker 1>They even have a software called Treasure Suite that helps

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<v Speaker 1>you to manage your crypto assets and their hardware wallets.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, guys, are open source, and you can

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<v Speaker 1>check out Treasure. They make great devices. Like I said,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a user, so check them out. Guys. All the

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<v Speaker 1>links will be in the description. Now here's some interesting news.

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<v Speaker 1>We know Trump and his companies, quite a few of

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<v Speaker 1>them are involving crypto. You got Word Liberty, financially, you

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<v Speaker 1>got Trump Media, a truth social all getting involved with

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<v Speaker 1>crypto in one way or the other. So here's the headline,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump Media clears sec hurdle for two point three billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars share resale. So many may recall they are looking

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<v Speaker 1>to do a bitcoin treasury strategy and they raise two

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<v Speaker 1>point three billion dollars to buy bitcoins. So incredible, And

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<v Speaker 1>then you got truth Social If I'm not mistaken, they're

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<v Speaker 1>looking to launch a bitcoin ETF, and of course we're

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<v Speaker 1>Liberty Financial. The only thing I'm not a fan of

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<v Speaker 1>is the meme coin, but it is what it is

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<v Speaker 1>at this point. But Trump is making progress. And once

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<v Speaker 1>again read between the lines here. You could hate Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump or you could love him. That's not the point, right,

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<v Speaker 1>put that to the side. How you feel about the man.

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<v Speaker 1>Just look at the business moves he's making, what his

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<v Speaker 1>kids are doing. If you know Trump, he's about making money.

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<v Speaker 1>He wouldn't be doing this to lose money. He knows

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<v Speaker 1>legislation's coming, he knows his markets are going to go higher.

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<v Speaker 1>So he's positioning himself, especially around crypto, because he knows

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to go higher. I don't think he's going

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<v Speaker 1>to do this to lose his money. All of a sudden,

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<v Speaker 1>bear bull market's over. We're entering too a bear market.

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<v Speaker 1>And everything goes down by eighty percent. Obviously he's not

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<v Speaker 1>going to do that. So again read between the lines,

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<v Speaker 1>right and once get all politics, all feelings aside. Once again,

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<v Speaker 1>if you hate their love the man, that's not the point.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at this strictly from an investment standpoint of

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<v Speaker 1>who's making what moves, who's getting involved. Watch what they do,

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<v Speaker 1>not what they say, right, folks. So this is a

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<v Speaker 1>very bullish sign. Now, something interesting came up. Someone on

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<v Speaker 1>x tweeted about how if you go on coinbase, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and bitcoin is currently trading at one hundred and five thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>three hundred dollars, but if you look to buy some

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<v Speaker 1>of that bigcoin at that price, they charge you one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and six thousand, nine hundred and if you want

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<v Speaker 1>to sell, it's one hundred and three nine fifty. Why

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<v Speaker 1>is that it's fees? Right? There's a markup, and these

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<v Speaker 1>exchanges are making a lot of money. And Eric Balchuniz,

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<v Speaker 1>who's an ETF expert at Bloomberg, says, like I've been saying,

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<v Speaker 1>crypto exchanges have commissions that would make a nineteen seventy

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<v Speaker 1>stockbroker blush, especially for newbies. No wonder ETF's growing like wildfire.

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<v Speaker 1>They blow this shit out of the water. So he's saying,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's along the lines what I've been saying for

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<v Speaker 1>a long time. These crypto exchanges better up their game

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<v Speaker 1>because Wall Street's here for the takeover and they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to look to steal market share from these crypto exchanges,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it be coinbase and binance and much more, because

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<v Speaker 1>they charge a very low fee and they're able to

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<v Speaker 1>do that because they're dealing with volume, right and they

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<v Speaker 1>have the brand, they have the existing customer base, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they're pushing this to the mainstream. While crypto exchanges,

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<v Speaker 1>don't get me wrong, are catering to mainstream, but they're

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<v Speaker 1>not able to make that major push like a blow

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<v Speaker 1>Rocker Fidelity, which is already established, you know what I mean.

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<v Speaker 1>So these crypto exchanges better watch what they're doing. If

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to charge an arm and a leg, they're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna lose business to people who are gonna go with

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<v Speaker 1>et aps. And if the tradi fi folks start saying

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<v Speaker 1>stuff about the exchanges like, hey, you got to be

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<v Speaker 1>careful with these guys. You can't custody with them. They

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<v Speaker 1>don't know what they're doing. Trust us. We've been doing

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<v Speaker 1>this for a long time, longer than they have. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a plausible narrative to put out there to take

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<v Speaker 1>business away. Right. I'm not saying I want all these

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<v Speaker 1>things to happen. I'm just thinking logically here of what

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<v Speaker 1>may take place. So it's something that you need to

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<v Speaker 1>be aware of. Now. You know, exchanges like Coinbase and

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<v Speaker 1>even other platforms have advanced features like Coinbase has the

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<v Speaker 1>advanced feature where the fees are lower, but you got

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<v Speaker 1>to know what you're doing as far as doing these things.

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<v Speaker 1>You can set limit orders for buy and sell, and

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<v Speaker 1>there's a maker taker fee, but it's not like you

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<v Speaker 1>know what they're charging here. So something to keep in mind.

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<v Speaker 1>And like I said, if these exchanges don't up their game,

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street's going to come in and say, hey, the ETFs,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have to worry about anything. We've custodied your

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<v Speaker 1>traditional assets like stocks and gold and much more. We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna cust to your crypto for you, and it'll be

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<v Speaker 1>a lot easier for you then going to exchanges and

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<v Speaker 1>much more. So this is just an interesting conversation that

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<v Speaker 1>took place today that I think you guys should know

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<v Speaker 1>about and be aware of with with how exchanges charge

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<v Speaker 1>fees and the markups and much more. Folks, that's the news.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and

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<v Speaker 1>comments below hit the thumbs up button. A great way

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<v Speaker 1>you can support me is by subscribing to my free

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<v Speaker 1>email newsletter. It's one hundred percent free. Check out my

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<v Speaker 1>book on Amazon, it's available in paperback, in digital, and

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<v Speaker 1>my course at mycrypto course dot com. Thank you for

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<v Speaker 1>watching and listening. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk

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<v Speaker 1>to you all later