Speaker 1: I'd be more concerned about how the US gets further
Speaker 1: pulled into the conflict than about specifically what Iran does
Speaker 1: in reaction to it, because the regime is very weak.
Speaker 1: It has been weak even before this, It's been weakened
Speaker 1: for years. So their ability to actually conduct an offense
Speaker 1: against the United States is pretty low, even against like
Speaker 1: Bahram where we have fifth Fleet, or in Katar where
Speaker 1: we have the Air Force, or you know, Afcent, but
Speaker 1: it'd be very tough for them to kind of have
Speaker 1: a sustained campaign against those. They only have two thousand missiles,
Speaker 1: so they've already fired about thirty to fifty percent of them.
Speaker 1: So I mean, you've got a Swan song there at
Speaker 1: the end where they can launch the rest, but then
Speaker 1: then what right. But I'd be more concerned about, Okay,
Speaker 1: the US goes in there kind of like operational Anaconda
Speaker 1: in Afghanistan. We went in there and we had executed
Speaker 1: a flawless invasion, did what we wanted to do in
Speaker 1: a few weeks, and we stayed for twenty years. And
Speaker 1: that's that's more concerning to me, because that is more
Speaker 1: likely because it's easy for us to get wrapped up,
Speaker 1: you know, bit by bit by bit pulled into this thing,
Speaker 1: and now you're in a position that you can't get
Speaker 1: out of.
Speaker 2: Everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics, especially
Speaker 2: one today with Jonathan Hackett. John did a great, great
Speaker 2: interview on the Team House where we talked a bit,
Speaker 2: not a bit, a good amount about his uh career
Speaker 2: in the Marines. MARSK. I mean, you definitely did have
Speaker 2: a very interesting career, dude, Like you know, you worked
Speaker 2: at the NSA. D I A like, it doesn't seem
Speaker 2: like a prototypical enlisted Marines career. I would say, definitely.
Speaker 1: Definitely.
Speaker 2: Uh so, yeah, I definitely. I'm recommending everybody go check
Speaker 2: that out. I'll put the link in the description too,
Speaker 2: for for that, for that episode, for your books too.
Speaker 2: All the links will be in the scripture. If you
Speaker 2: want to find Jonathan, the links are in the description.
Speaker 2: Do not ask me, please, it's in the description because
Speaker 2: people like to ask. Even though I put all the
Speaker 2: links in the description. Today's gonna be a little bit different.
Speaker 2: We're gonna talk more about what's going on obviously in
Speaker 2: the world. A lot cooking as usual. It's been about
Speaker 2: a week, I would say about a week right since
Speaker 2: Israel started bombing Iran and Iran's nuclear facilities. They're nuclear scientists,
Speaker 2: their IRGC guys, and shockingly, which I'm saying that sarcastically,
Speaker 2: they're trying to bring us into it. I think we've
Speaker 2: all seen like the build up of our own you know,
Speaker 2: a ton of tankers heading towards the Middle East. F
Speaker 2: twenty two's you know, landing in the UK. I think
Speaker 2: getting ready to go to the Middle East. The nimits
Speaker 2: like Carrier made it like we're stacking up a ton
Speaker 2: of equipment in and around that area. Give me your like,
Speaker 2: what you're thinking and what you're tracking.
Speaker 1: Well. A really interesting indicator of what's going on in
Speaker 1: the US side is pizza sales in DC. If you
Speaker 1: look at pizza sales outside of the Pentagon, they're like
Speaker 1: five times hired and usual even at meal time, which
Speaker 1: is very similar to nineteen ninety one, nineteen ninety when
Speaker 1: we're doing more plans for the aerial campaign in Iraq
Speaker 1: for the first gol War, there was a similar pizza
Speaker 1: drive that actually people did a lot of analysis on
Speaker 1: and saw, you know, there's more going on than usual,
Speaker 1: more than the regular just advising the president on options.
Speaker 1: There's an NSC meeting this afternoon where they're going to
Speaker 1: probably present him with a menu of options. But I
Speaker 1: would I would imagine that it's not just options they're presenting.
Speaker 1: They've already got packages in place that once he chooses
Speaker 1: one of those options, if he does, it would be
Speaker 1: ready to launch instantly. Even Netanyahu said, you know, he
Speaker 1: made some light of it on I think it was
Speaker 1: Twitter about the Iranians will see something amazing this weekend,
Speaker 1: you know, and kind of like bringing that up. So
Speaker 1: whether it's Israel doing something or the US doing something,
Speaker 1: whether that's Kamani being assassinated, or US using a GBU
Speaker 1: fifty seven on ford aw, maybe something, it might be
Speaker 1: a third thing that we are just not aware of
Speaker 1: could happen. My thought is, what if Comani is not
Speaker 1: even in Iran? What if he's in Russia right now, protected?
Speaker 1: And how does that change Israel's calculus on that threat,
Speaker 1: because without consummating the threat, it's kind of meaningless, especially
Speaker 1: if they're they're waving in about the way that they
Speaker 1: are today on the media.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it was super interesting the last couple
Speaker 2: of days, super interesting and also scary and frustrating because
Speaker 2: you did see Nan Yahu going around doing their rounds
Speaker 2: like American media, like he was on Fox News with
Speaker 2: Brett Baer and it was like a lah fucking two
Speaker 2: thousand and fucking two when we're like gearing up for Iraq,
Speaker 2: and you know, even in Bbe's speech right after they
Speaker 2: started hitting it Iran, it was they're a year away,
Speaker 2: Like we've heard it year away, year away for so long.
Speaker 2: And I understand they've enriched a certain amount and they
Speaker 2: need to weaponize it and that takes time. But again,
Speaker 2: it wasn't like they have three or four nukes sitting
Speaker 2: around pointed at Israel on one of those ballistic missiles.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: It's extremely frustrating, especially I'm gonna editorialize a little bit
Speaker 2: because I don't give a shit really seeing a lot
Speaker 2: of like the talking heads out there on Twitter and
Speaker 2: stuff like that, like guys who have been in Iraq,
Speaker 2: been in Afghanistan, seeing like seen war firsthand, seen the
Speaker 2: mistakes we've made, and stuff like that, where they're just
Speaker 2: like beating the drums. It's not just like the Lindsey Grahams,
Speaker 2: you know, who's a fucking ghoul. Let's be honest, or
Speaker 2: like Fetterman who are like pro pro Israel, like yeah,
Speaker 2: let's do it. It's you know, those guys I understand
Speaker 2: because they've probably never been outside of like an air
Speaker 2: conditioned room. But like the natural security analyst guys who
Speaker 2: have been there and have seen it and they're like
Speaker 2: they know better, are like kind of cheering this on,
Speaker 2: and it's unreal to me. It's like, have we not
Speaker 2: learned anything over the last twenty years.
Speaker 1: It's pretty similar though to the Gulf War, the first one,
Speaker 1: because you had a lot of Vietnam vets that were
Speaker 1: generals at that time. Even in the First Iraq War,
Speaker 1: you still had some holdovers from that period, especially from
Speaker 1: the eighties when special operations became the doctrinal thing. A
Speaker 1: lot of people died in those conflicts, and yet those
Speaker 1: people were the loudest saber rattlers trying to get us
Speaker 1: in immediately, you know, like in the president's ear saying
Speaker 1: like no, we got to go right now. And if
Speaker 1: you go back to the nineties when Netnaho first became powerful, essentially,
Speaker 1: especially the mid nineties, his advisors basically came to him
Speaker 1: with a paper called the Clean Break Memo that talked
Speaker 1: about overthrowing three countries in the Middle East, first Iraq,
Speaker 1: second Syria, and third Iran. And if you look at today,
Speaker 1: they've been working on that ever since then. In two
Speaker 1: thousand and three, the Masad actually changed their number one
Speaker 1: priority targets from Palestinian focused targets like the PFLP of
Speaker 1: the PLO to Iran number one, number two Hesboa and
Speaker 1: number three Hamas. And that was a clear shift that
Speaker 1: Nennyahu actually pushed toward that goal. And as you said,
Speaker 1: the year after that, we invaded Iraq. We overthrew Iraq
Speaker 1: as they told us to. And then we've been working
Speaker 1: against the Syrian government ever since then. Even though Syria
Speaker 1: helped us in the very beginning of the war, they
Speaker 1: gave us intel, they gave us satellite imagery, they told
Speaker 1: us where guys were at in Syria, we brushed that aside,
Speaker 1: and ever since then we did COVID action in Syria
Speaker 1: under Timber Sycamore, where we tried to overthrow the government
Speaker 1: and eventually it actually succeeded. Last December. Yeah, it was
Speaker 1: check mark number two. And then you've got the final
Speaker 1: check mark, which is the most difficult piece for them
Speaker 1: for Israel to move and that is Iran and it's
Speaker 1: happening right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's incredible when you lay it out like that.
Speaker 2: You know it's taken thirty years or more, but it's
Speaker 2: it's almost there. I mean also a bit of like
Speaker 2: the wishful thinking you see from you know, because I'm
Speaker 2: not I'm a dumb civilian, right, but I've talked enough
Speaker 2: like salty CIA guys, especially CIA guys who were like
Speaker 2: involved are working while Iraq was building, where they talk
Speaker 2: about it like where the wishful thinking is where you
Speaker 2: get in trouble, right totally, And I see a lot
Speaker 2: of that, like talking about regime change, like are people
Speaker 2: protesting in the streets really? I mean obviously not because
Speaker 2: you're getting bombed, but.
Speaker 1: Well, actually, interesting you say that they just executed some
Speaker 1: protesters that were protesting two days ago. They captured them
Speaker 1: the same day and killed them the same day. So
Speaker 1: they are violently tapping down any resistance in the country.
Speaker 1: The strongest resistance of the regime that exists is the
Speaker 1: Mujahedini khalk MK, which was also an enemy of the
Speaker 1: Shah back in the seventies. They had a mutual understanding
Speaker 1: with the regime in the first couple of years after
Speaker 1: the revolution, and then the regime executed three thousand plus
Speaker 1: prisoners of the Mek prisoners essentially in the nineteen eighties
Speaker 1: late eighties. Ibrahim Raysi was named the hanging judge back then.
Speaker 1: He became president later and then died in a helicopter.
Speaker 1: But that is the largest resistance group. Believe me, you
Speaker 1: do not want that group leading Iran. It's a quasi
Speaker 1: Marxist cult essentially, that's based out of Albania. Israel. Masad
Speaker 1: has been working with them. That's their number one group
Speaker 1: they work with outside of Iraq and Iran to actually
Speaker 1: get stuff in. Like when you see all this stuff
Speaker 1: smuggled into Iran, most of the time, it's Mujahidini Kalk
Speaker 1: moving it in, not Masad. It's Masad running agents. Those
Speaker 1: agents are Iranian and they're moving stuff in. But the
Speaker 1: way Israel advertises it to kind of like upsell their footprint,
Speaker 1: like oh, we got inside Iran, it's like you didn't.
Speaker 1: Actually you've had guys recruited that did that. Guys that
Speaker 1: are not the right people you want leading ninety million people,
Speaker 1: which Ted Cruz can't even name. The number of inside
Speaker 1: the country is going Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean it's actually I really appreciate you bringing that up, right, like,
Speaker 2: because we really haven't really i mean general public layman's
Speaker 2: like myself don't really know, like, yeah, what's the resistance
Speaker 2: in Iran look like? And like you said, like I'm
Speaker 2: not surprised that they're not going to come in and
Speaker 2: be like this lib democracy that loves fucking elections and
Speaker 2: all that stuff. So yeah, and also a great point
Speaker 2: bringing up like yeah, like the you know, because everyone
Speaker 2: was talking about how, oh my god, Mussad did this
Speaker 2: drone thing and like hit the ballistic missiles before they
Speaker 2: you know, they had guys on the ground and I'm
Speaker 2: sure they had a couple you know, singletons and operators
Speaker 2: on the ground and stuff. But like you said, the
Speaker 2: facilitated all they need. Irani's right, who can go in
Speaker 2: and out? And I did see a couple of days
Speaker 2: ago they executed like twenty or so agents that they
Speaker 2: call it, like Mussad agents. It's just insane, honestly, man,
Speaker 2: I'm like so taken aback by this that, like the
Speaker 2: drums of war are just like spinning and bat and
Speaker 2: baying so loud. Also, like there was you gov did
Speaker 2: a poll, like sixteen percent of Americans do not want
Speaker 2: to do this. H sixteen percent of Americans do want
Speaker 2: to do this, the rest do not.
Speaker 1: Like that's pretty significant.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean so in terms it's like political suicide.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess like Trump definitely is teflon and
Speaker 2: he doesn't really have that to worry about. You do
Speaker 2: see a split in the base there, like the MAGA
Speaker 2: base and stuff like that. There are people like streaming
Speaker 2: from the rooftops, but I don't know what that really
Speaker 2: is gonna end up doing for Trump anyway, in terms
Speaker 2: of like politically, talk a little bit about more like, yeah,
Speaker 2: the inner dynamics of what it looks like in Iran
Speaker 2: right now. I mean, especially a little bit more about
Speaker 2: the resistance group.
Speaker 1: So, first of all, big problem in Iran right now
Speaker 1: for the regular Iranians is fear. They're afraid of what's happening,
Speaker 1: because even though Israel says they're there to help, they've
Speaker 1: killed hundreds of people that are not involved in anything,
Speaker 1: and we know that they do that frequently. But because
Speaker 1: of that fear, Iranians don't know what to do, where
Speaker 1: to go. They're trying to get out of Tehran. A
Speaker 1: lot of them are they're trying to go up into
Speaker 1: the mountains, like in the west, which is courage, or
Speaker 1: down south. The problem is down south, sixty miles south
Speaker 1: is ford out. So if they try to go south,
Speaker 1: now they're entering a new conflict zone that probably tomorrow
Speaker 1: or tonight will become you know, the center of the
Speaker 1: conflict zone.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're.
Speaker 1: Trying to get out. And a lot of these people
Speaker 1: in Tehran, they're they're city people. They don't they don't
Speaker 1: live outside, you know, like probably outside this big metropolitan area.
Speaker 1: So for them, I mean, imagine if you're living in
Speaker 1: New York your entire life and someone says, like, evacuate
Speaker 1: up to get the cat skills, I'm far Yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: like that's crazy.
Speaker 2: I'm a concrete princess, dude, exactly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's what's going through a lot of people's minds.
Speaker 1: Plus like food and water and think about you always
Speaker 1: got to think about the day after. So let's say
Speaker 1: that Khmani dies today, what happens tomorrow? I mean, if
Speaker 1: you already took out all these top leaders, who, don't
Speaker 1: get me wrong, are murderous villains, you know, these IRGC generals,
Speaker 1: these guys have killed thousands of Iranians inside the country,
Speaker 1: of course, but what will replace them as far as
Speaker 1: law and order and social structure, and you're going to
Speaker 1: see just I predict, just like Iraq, there was looting,
Speaker 1: widespread violent crime, just totally unrestrained. You know, once you
Speaker 1: once you take the framework off of a society, it
Speaker 1: doesn't matter where it is. Look at France in the
Speaker 1: eighteen hundreds, after Napoleon, there was Napoleon, then there was
Speaker 1: a monarch, then there was Napoleon, then there was a monarch.
Speaker 1: That's where communism actually came from, because there was a
Speaker 1: Paris Commune twice, you know, and it was really really violent.
Speaker 1: It was totally unrestrained. And I think that Iran that's
Speaker 1: probably the most likely outcome. If this happened tonight, that's
Speaker 1: what would happen tomorrow. And that's very scary because whatever
Speaker 1: Israel says rhetoric, why is whatever netyah who says, where's
Speaker 1: the actual help that will come the day after? And
Speaker 1: I don't think it doesn't seem that that is part
Speaker 1: of the plan. In fact, I think chaos is probably
Speaker 1: more preferred, especially if you look at Israeli domestic politics
Speaker 1: the longer conflict goes on, the more netnya who's survival
Speaker 1: is assured. He's a human being, everyone's a human being.
Speaker 1: Everyone wants to keep doing the thing they want to do,
Speaker 1: and he sees the writing on the wall. You know,
Speaker 1: before October seventh, hundreds of thousands of people were protesting
Speaker 1: against his government in the streets. That switched off immediately
Speaker 1: and has not started up again. So the longer this
Speaker 1: can go on, the slower burn this could be. Yeah,
Speaker 1: better domestically it is for him against his own you know,
Speaker 1: opponents in the country.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I did. I remember, like they were like talking
Speaker 2: or spin it up like a possible no confidence vote
Speaker 2: or whatever in the parliament, and that kind of like
Speaker 2: went away.
Speaker 1: But that was the day before the launch of the strikes.
Speaker 2: That'll do it, I guess, right, Like you have a
Speaker 2: bigger enemy to fry now, and it's it's Iran, and
Speaker 2: it's like the big boogeyman. And again, like I'm not
Speaker 2: the type of guy that's like saying like Israel shouldn't
Speaker 2: be secure, right, I think they've done a relatively great
Speaker 2: job of staying secure. Their armed to the teeth, right,
Speaker 2: they have the best military in the region probably by
Speaker 2: a lot. Right, Like there's some talk about like Egypt
Speaker 2: being like as good, but like I don't technologically, I
Speaker 2: don't believe it. So it's like Israel is pretty much secure.
Speaker 2: I mean, the only time we've ever seen even last
Speaker 2: year when they hit like Irani and U air defence
Speaker 2: radars and stuff like that, Like the response was like
Speaker 2: a coordinated response, right ye, just saying like hey, we
Speaker 2: have to respond, no one's actually gonna die. I think
Speaker 2: one person died and it was an Arabic girl, but
Speaker 2: it was very coordinated, very like you know, for for
Speaker 2: lack of a better word, for show really now like
Speaker 2: ballistic missiles are hitting in downtown Tel Aviv. People are
Speaker 2: dying in downtown Tel Aviv, where like I don't think
Speaker 2: they're exactly used to it. I know, I know they're
Speaker 2: used to living in like a world like that where
Speaker 2: they hear rockets come in from other tamasu the Hesbola,
Speaker 2: but it's relatively it was at least relatively few and
Speaker 2: far between. Now they're getting peppered right.
Speaker 1: In different munitions this time because the ones from Hesbal
Speaker 1: are smaller ordnate, smaller order, you know, explosions, these are
Speaker 1: medium range ballistic missiles or larger which have a very
Speaker 1: large impact. So again that fear factor when you hear
Speaker 1: an explosion that's this small, like small you know, around
Speaker 1: your city block versus one that's heard around the whole city,
Speaker 1: big difference in how people feel in the city, you know.
Speaker 2: Totally going back to like the GBU fifty seven, right,
Speaker 2: which only the B two can carry. They can carry
Speaker 2: two a pop. There was like reporting, I believe it
Speaker 2: was washed Wall Street Journal where like Trump was asking
Speaker 2: his generals and his NFC, like, hey, is can this
Speaker 2: actually work? Like can it really take out or really
Speaker 2: degrade their nuclear program? According to the article, they're saying
Speaker 2: that the general said yes, it can. Of course, prior
Speaker 2: to like this going down and when this was just
Speaker 2: conjecture everyone talking about and analyzing it they said, people
Speaker 2: were saying, no, it'll probably center back maybe three six months,
Speaker 2: and then they'll redouble their efforts. So what's changed besides like, oh, no,
Speaker 2: it's time to go to war and like we don't
Speaker 2: give a shit about like the actual truth that's on
Speaker 2: the ground or what actually can happen.
Speaker 1: Well, the way our mind works is we try to
Speaker 1: arrange information in a way that makes our desired outcome
Speaker 1: the more accepted outcome. And I think because people are
Speaker 1: being pushed in the direction of using the weapon, a
Speaker 1: lot more of the rhetoric in support of it is
Speaker 1: getting center stage, while the other information is being pushed
Speaker 1: to the side, especially when you have hawks around in
Speaker 1: the administration saying, oh, no, we just got to do it.
Speaker 1: But you look at the maximum effective depth of that
Speaker 1: it's two hundred feet. Well, the site in ford Ou
Speaker 1: is at least three hundred feet, so you're already looking
Speaker 1: at a math problem. Doesn't make sense, and that's at
Speaker 1: least three hundred feet. What if it's deeper. What if
Speaker 1: the material composition of that mountain is such that you
Speaker 1: require even more for a shorter depth, you require more munition.
Speaker 1: And of course they've done measurements signature intelligence to know
Speaker 1: what the composition is of the mountain. But I would
Speaker 1: question that math right up front, and then I would
Speaker 1: also look at the other nuclear facilities, because there's only
Speaker 1: one thousand cent reviews is at Ford Out. The fact
Speaker 1: that it's deeply buried makes us suspicious that perhaps this
Speaker 1: is a location that has either a bomb almost constructed
Speaker 1: or constructed, or the best part of their uranium stockpile
Speaker 1: could be there. Maybe. But I just saw Vladimir Putin
Speaker 1: talking yesterday about Boucher, because in Boucher, which is another facility,
Speaker 1: there's two hundred Russian scientists and technicians from rosatoone working
Speaker 1: there right now, and apparently he reached a separate piece
Speaker 1: with neat Yahoo where Netanyahu agreed not to strike Boucher
Speaker 1: in this conflict, which is very interesting because if the
Speaker 1: Iranians see the news like we see the news, that
Speaker 1: would probably stimulate them to perhaps move their uranium right now,
Speaker 1: or maybe they already did and we just don't know it.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of unknown here because the noise floor
Speaker 1: is very high in this situation, and there's a lot
Speaker 1: of misinformation and misunderstanding going on because in this type
Speaker 1: of conflict, a lot of experts just kind of emerge
Speaker 1: out of the woodwork, throwing around things that they remember
Speaker 1: from their time maybe ten years ago, twenty years ago
Speaker 1: is not accurate today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, I mean again, I'm gonna keep saying it's
Speaker 2: freaking scary, dude, because it also seems to be happening
Speaker 2: a lot faster now than what I remember from like Iraq,
Speaker 2: you know, like Iraq was like a year long kind
Speaker 2: of media blitz, and that's probably having to do with
Speaker 2: like social media and how stuff is so fast.
Speaker 1: But well, I'll say, back then, it took longer, I
Speaker 1: think because Israel had to convince the American public to act. Now, Israel,
Speaker 1: every country does intelligence work, right. There are no allies
Speaker 1: in the intelligence world. There are only interests. Israel collects
Speaker 1: intelligence just like we do on everybody. They're doing assessments
Speaker 1: not only of Ayatola Kameni, they're also doing assessments of
Speaker 1: Donald Trump about his decision making ways. And they've probably
Speaker 1: determined that they don't have to convince the American public
Speaker 1: of this. All they have to do is convince Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: and they probably know how to do it because they're
Speaker 1: looking at how he reacts a different things and they're
Speaker 1: seeing which pressure points can we push today to make
Speaker 1: an outcome tomorrow. Doing the same thing with Putin right,
Speaker 1: and that's not unusual, I mean, that's what states do.
Speaker 1: It's just unfortunate in the situation like this where so
Speaker 1: many lives are at stake, both Israeli lives, Iranian lives,
Speaker 1: and most of all American lives. We don't need to
Speaker 1: be sending our troops to go die in Iran. And
Speaker 1: if people remember the Iran Iraq war in nineteen eighty
Speaker 1: to eighty eight, the way that Iran thought that war
Speaker 1: was brutal, right, and very similar situation actually to right now.
Speaker 1: Saddam hussein'sa on opportunity. A few months after the revolution
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy nine, he said, oh, it's a weak country.
Speaker 1: Now I can just go in and invade and we'll
Speaker 1: take it. He went in and he was met with
Speaker 1: massive opposition. And it's interesting because before that there was
Speaker 1: a revolutionary situation where you had at least eight different factions.
Speaker 1: One of them is the regime today, but the other
Speaker 1: seven were also vying for power. All of them put
Speaker 1: their weapons down against each other and forced them against
Speaker 1: Sudan Vasain. And I think a similar situation could arise
Speaker 1: today because imagine if you disagree. Let's say your party
Speaker 1: A and someone else's party B, and you guys want
Speaker 1: to go fight each other, but suddenly someone invades your country.
Speaker 1: You're not concerned about fighting each other anymore. Now you're
Speaker 1: looking at this bigger threat and standing next to each other.
Speaker 1: And that's this very scary situation and one that doesn't
Speaker 1: have to happen. That's that's the sad thing. It's completely
Speaker 1: avoidable to have all these lives put in danger on
Speaker 1: all fronts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean great, well said, right, because everyone's talking
Speaker 2: about like regime change and stuff like that and how
Speaker 2: it'll TAPA, But like what happens if yeah, if they
Speaker 2: meet it with you know, unity, right exactly and like
Speaker 2: get together and fight. Plus, like, is Israel willing to
Speaker 2: send one hundred thousand or so troops or even like
Speaker 2: a Tier one team like you know, I'm sure Delta
Speaker 2: and Jaysck there if they're not training up for their
Speaker 2: other mission, which is not just Hassa's rescue, right, it's
Speaker 2: also like nuclear proliferation or nuclear deterrence this, I mean
Speaker 2: they in their mos right, there's skill said, is to
Speaker 2: go into places like this and get nuclear weapons out
Speaker 2: or like neutralize a nuclear facility. So is Israel willing
Speaker 2: to do that without the US's help? And is the
Speaker 2: US willing.
Speaker 1: To do that?
Speaker 2: I hope not?
Speaker 1: Well, Israel's done it twice before they bomb the Osra
Speaker 1: react nuclear reactor in Iraq, and they bomb the Syrian
Speaker 1: nuclear reactor as well, without US support. The important thing
Speaker 1: is they didn't do anything afterward to secure the nuclear material.
Speaker 1: And actually in one of those there was a bunch
Speaker 1: of North Korean engineers that were discovered under the rubble,
Speaker 1: which is very interesting. But what if they do that again?
Speaker 1: What if they because I saw another statement today saying
Speaker 1: it doesn't have to be an air strike, it could
Speaker 1: be something else that blows up. For now, maybe they've
Speaker 1: got guys inside, or maybe it's like a stuck snet
Speaker 1: type thing where they disrupt the centrifugias or some other thing. Okay,
Speaker 1: that happens. Then what You've got hundreds of pounds of
Speaker 1: enriched uranium near weapons grade? What happens? Then? There's a
Speaker 1: lot of separatist groups in Iran. There's the Baluchi's, there's
Speaker 1: the Kurds, there's Azeri and other smaller groups that for
Speaker 1: several hundred years have been in opposition to any government
Speaker 1: in your own What happens if a Balucci group gets
Speaker 1: a hold of some of that uranium and brings it
Speaker 1: to Afghanistan, then what you know? And that's a really
Speaker 1: big question. I mean, that's a lot of nuclear material.
Speaker 1: It's hundreds of pounds of nuclear material. You can't just
Speaker 1: go put it in your backpack, right take it out.
Speaker 1: You've got to do a lot of stuff to get
Speaker 1: rid of it. And in the meantime, look in Livia,
Speaker 1: what happened when Gaddafi toppled, those weapons proliferated around the
Speaker 1: world in like days and weeks. Same thing with the
Speaker 1: in Yemen with the Huthis. As soon as the Many
Speaker 1: government fell, all those weapons stores were cleared out like
Speaker 1: same day, you know, and these other groups that now
Speaker 1: we hate are armed with all the equipment that we
Speaker 1: freed up. When I say we any collectively, you know,
Speaker 1: the world freed up for this these groups to get
Speaker 1: a hold of. And now you're talking uranium. I would
Speaker 1: hope to see an exit strategy advertised with along with
Speaker 1: these threats of invasion and attack.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that'd be amazing.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're not going to get it right on
Speaker 1: purpose too, because the incertain team makes it makes it
Speaker 1: more pressure for the other side.
Speaker 2: So for self, So I'm gonna ask one of my buddies.
Speaker 2: Asked right, one of my buddies, New York guy works
Speaker 2: in Manhattan, And it's interesting, this Israel Iranian conflict has
Speaker 2: like kind of elevated past, like people that really are
Speaker 2: interested in like foreign policy, geopoliticans stuff, it's elevated past
Speaker 2: like the general public. My buddy who's not really like
Speaker 2: concerned about that. He's concerned about making money like you know,
Speaker 2: and taking care of his family like most people, he's like, Oh,
Speaker 2: what's gonna happen? Like in terms of like blowback? Right,
Speaker 2: what does blowback look like? If the US gets involved
Speaker 2: in striking facilities and like an open ended, you know,
Speaker 2: air campaign against Iran.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would be more concerned about how the US
Speaker 1: gets further pulled into the conflict than about specifically what
Speaker 1: Iran does in reaction to it. Because the regime is
Speaker 1: very weak. It has been weak even before this. It's
Speaker 1: been weakened for years. So their ability to actually conduct
Speaker 1: an offense against the United States is pretty low. Even
Speaker 1: against like Bahram where we have fifth Fleet or in
Speaker 1: Katar where we have the Air Force, or you know, Afcent,
Speaker 1: it'd be very tough for them to kind of have
Speaker 1: a sustained campaign against those. They only have two thousand missiles,
Speaker 1: so they've already fired about thirty to fifty percent of them.
Speaker 1: So I mean, you've got a Swan song there at
Speaker 1: the end where they can launch the rest. But then
Speaker 1: what right. But I'd be more concerned about, Okay, the
Speaker 1: US goes in there, kind of like Operation Anaconda in Afghanistan.
Speaker 1: We went in there and we had executed a flawless invasion,
Speaker 1: did what we wanted to do in a few weeks,
Speaker 1: and then we stayed for twenty years. And that's that's
Speaker 1: more concerning to me, because that is more likely because
Speaker 1: it's easy for us to get wrapped up, you know,
Speaker 1: bit by bit by bit, pulled into this thing, and
Speaker 1: now you're in a position that you can't get out of.
Speaker 1: You're in a dilemma. And it seems as though we're
Speaker 1: already moving toward that dilemma now, the way we're getting
Speaker 1: pulled in the way we brought the D two bombers
Speaker 1: even a few months ago in April, you know, doing
Speaker 1: those small little things without us even realizing it pulls
Speaker 1: us into the conflict in a way that's very challenging
Speaker 1: for us to get out of on our own. It's
Speaker 1: not that the enemy is doing something specifically, is that
Speaker 1: we are doing something that cements us into further conflict.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I basically told my friend, I try to
Speaker 2: dumb it down to where it's like, listen, if we
Speaker 2: do get involved, likely like because like you said, I,
Speaker 2: RAN's pretty weak regime, right, Like they don't really have
Speaker 2: the reach that they people think they do. But like
Speaker 2: if we were to get involved and it's like two
Speaker 2: three years down the road, I'm like, at that point,
Speaker 2: like maybe you can worry about like a bomb going
Speaker 2: off somewhere in the United States, right like where it's
Speaker 2: like a smaller terrorist attack kind of thing rather than
Speaker 2: like ballistic missiles raining down And I told them, like
Speaker 2: they can't reach here and they don't have as many,
Speaker 2: like we're fine. Yeah, it's nuts, man, It's so crazy
Speaker 2: because people are just so fucking like it's just like
Speaker 2: they have like goldfish memories.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, there's one thing that's very important to remember,
Speaker 1: and that's nineteen fifty three. That's when the US, the CIA,
Speaker 1: and Great Britain went in and overthrew Mohammad Mosadic, who
Speaker 1: was a democratically elected Prime minister of Iran under Operation Ajax,
Speaker 1: which I encourage listeners to read about. Very fascinating point
Speaker 1: in our history. We did that to bring the Shah
Speaker 1: to power that was the son of the original Shaw
Speaker 1: who we in the British also brought to power after
Speaker 1: World War One. Right, So there's a history of foreign involvement,
Speaker 1: not just the US, but foreign involvement in Iran that
Speaker 1: tends to turn Iranians against certain foreign interests. Like there's
Speaker 1: a great opportunity for the United States to be friends
Speaker 1: with Iran in the future with a new new government
Speaker 1: and new situation. But if we repeat or do something
Speaker 1: similar to Operation Ajax, there is a very high chance
Speaker 1: that we will have no friends in Iran, which is
Speaker 1: very sad because that country has great people, amazing culture
Speaker 1: and history obviously, but also amazing natural resources that are
Speaker 1: just sitting there. And they also have the Straits of
Speaker 1: Wour moves right south of them, and they could help
Speaker 1: secure that area rather than make it threatened. Right that
Speaker 1: the country has such potential to be a positive actor
Speaker 1: for us, and it did during the entire Shas period
Speaker 1: from nineteen fifty three through nineteen seventy nine, which is
Speaker 1: a quarter of a century. That was our best friend
Speaker 1: in the Middle East. Who replaced that best friend Israel,
Speaker 1: And I think it would threaten Israel to have that
Speaker 1: friend again, because now that would threaten the balance. That's
Speaker 1: been set up. It would threaten the aid that's set up.
Speaker 1: It would that lifeline that we have set up, all
Speaker 1: that work that they've done over the years to get
Speaker 1: those things in their country, to get guaranteed six billion
Speaker 1: dollars a year foreign assistance, no strings attached, et cetera.
Speaker 1: All that stuff is now in jeopardy because there's another
Speaker 1: country with more resources, more people, more industry, all this,
Speaker 1: you know, so many more things to offer the United
Speaker 1: States economically that I think it would not be in
Speaker 1: Israel's interest to allow us to be friends with a
Speaker 1: new Iranian government. It would be instead they'd prefer probably
Speaker 1: to have a more chaotic outcome because that would keep
Speaker 1: them at the top as far as middle the politics goes.
Speaker 2: Bro I don't understand. I never feel happy after these
Speaker 2: these conversations with people, Like even when I'm doing with
Speaker 2: the guys, it's like, when do we get some good news, right, like,
Speaker 2: and like, honestly, I'm not a Trump guy, but obviously
Speaker 2: I have to give him a little bit of credit
Speaker 2: of like not jumping into this completely half cocked. I
Speaker 2: really do hopefully this is a move to like try
Speaker 2: and bring Iran to the table. The one wild card,
Speaker 2: in my opinion is Israel because like, even if we
Speaker 2: did have like a deal right in place, right, I
Speaker 2: can't see Israel stopping.
Speaker 1: Right what's in their interest to continue, especially if we're
Speaker 1: approaching a deal, because that, as I said, it shatters
Speaker 1: their ability to maintain the balance in the region.
Speaker 2: Good lord, all right, let's talk a little bit about
Speaker 2: because it's like seems like everybody forgot about Gaza and
Speaker 2: what's going on there. The genocide that's going on there,
Speaker 2: I'll say it, the war crimes that are going on
Speaker 2: over there. Not a fan of Hamas guys, just FYI,
Speaker 2: I know they are a terrorist organization, and I hate
Speaker 2: that I have to qualify the fact that I think
Speaker 2: that I believe that Israel should be secure and you know,
Speaker 2: keep their security. But what they've been doing over the
Speaker 2: last two years, close to two years, has been just
Speaker 2: like like Genghis Khan type stuff, you know, where it's
Speaker 2: just we'll starve them out. Well, you know, it's fine,
Speaker 2: We'll be fine. There's no endgame there, much like there
Speaker 2: seems to be no endgame in Iran either. I just
Speaker 2: don't understand what the move is. What do you what
Speaker 2: are your thoughts? I have no questions. I just speak
Speaker 2: in them like it's like jazz.
Speaker 1: So the former director of mazade Back and I think
Speaker 1: it was two thousand and five, said that every Palestinian
Speaker 1: either is a terrorist, gives birth to terrorists, or is
Speaker 1: a relative of a terrorist. And I think that is
Speaker 1: that explains the behavior toward Gaza. Yeah, because as you
Speaker 1: qualified what you said, there is no qualification for how
Speaker 1: they're describing Palestinian And it was interesting today, is ironic
Speaker 1: that Netnyahu said that, you know, Iran hit a hospital,
Speaker 1: nobody was hurt, but that's in a red line that
Speaker 1: Iran hit a hospital. And I was thinking, well, it's
Speaker 1: a good thing there's no more hospitals in Gaza to
Speaker 1: accidentally hit, right, sarcastically and sadly saying that, But look
Speaker 1: at the double standard here. You know, why is that okay?
Speaker 1: But it doesn't make it just doesn't make sense. It's
Speaker 1: very hard to wrap your head around from a logical
Speaker 1: perspective because it's not logical. It's emotional. You know, it's ideological.
Speaker 1: The way that they're framing these things, and that's how
Speaker 1: they're able to keep people supporting it is through ideology
Speaker 1: rather than logic, which is very scary because ideology knows
Speaker 1: no bounds.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, I'm assuming a person who was
Speaker 2: like pro this the operation in Gaza would be like, oh,
Speaker 2: because Hamasa has their command and control there, and that
Speaker 2: might be true, but like you know, in Tel Aviv
Speaker 2: Ministry of Defense or like some important buildings are in
Speaker 2: downtown tel Aviv, right, Like at the same time, look
Speaker 2: at you know, your marines in two thousand and four
Speaker 2: in Fallujah, right they went house to fucking house to
Speaker 2: clear out stuff. They lost a lot of guys. They
Speaker 2: didn't just make it place rubble completely wipe it off
Speaker 2: the map. They literally went house to fucking how Andy
Speaker 2: Milburn was there. You know, it was unbelieve it was insane,
Speaker 2: you know then like the kind of urban warfare that
Speaker 2: was going on there.
Speaker 1: Well, even a more direct comparison, if you look at
Speaker 1: the strike that killed Mohammed Bagheri, who was one of
Speaker 1: the IRGC commanders that they killed, it's a very small
Speaker 1: hole about the size of a grapefruit that they struck
Speaker 1: him with. Why can't they use that level of precision
Speaker 1: in Gaza to kill these quote unquote leaders The forty
Speaker 1: thousand to fifty thousand leaders that they've killed, which again
Speaker 1: very questionable description of these people. Why haven't they used that?
Speaker 1: If Masad has such exquisite intelligence and Shinbet has such
Speaker 1: exquisite intelligence, why can't they do these precision strikes there?
Speaker 1: If you're looking at it though from a logical perspective,
Speaker 1: what they're doing is they're purposely destroying gos It. They're
Speaker 1: flattening it to the ground so that they can take
Speaker 1: it back. And although many Israelis don't agree with that,
Speaker 1: those who are in decision making positions do, and those
Speaker 1: are the ones with their ability to send these forces
Speaker 1: out to do these things. And I think a lot
Speaker 1: of Israelis don't want this to happen. A lot of
Speaker 1: them before October seventh were very pro Palestinian rights. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of organizations in Israel that actually help Palestinians,
Speaker 1: you know, but there are also a lot that to
Speaker 1: the opposite. I saw an interview today with a Palestinian
Speaker 1: Israeli citizen who has denied entry into a bunker in
Speaker 1: his city inside of Israel because he spoke Arabic. They
Speaker 1: actually changed the towed him the door, and he actually
Speaker 1: was exposed to a bomb landing nearby because he wasn't
Speaker 1: allowed in a bunker because he's Palestinian, even though he's
Speaker 1: a citizen of Israel. Yeah, that tells you something. And
Speaker 1: again it doesn't characterize the entire state. But there are
Speaker 1: absolutely people with decision making power that are pushing this agenda.
Speaker 2: I mean, we'll look at this mute, that mutant Ben Gevier.
Speaker 2: You know, his party is the Jewish Power Party. Man
Speaker 2: if I was like, hey, guys, I'm joining the new party,
Speaker 2: this new party on Korean it's called White Power Party.
Speaker 2: That's going to be looked at as like, yo, relaxed, dude,
Speaker 2: what the fuck's going on?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: It's incredible, Like because Jews, for you know, during in
Speaker 2: Europe got fucking annihilated, right, it was horrible. So I
Speaker 2: would assume at least like you'd have some affection and
Speaker 2: some like care about people who are not you, who
Speaker 2: are not your religion. You wantn't be interest, just didn't
Speaker 2: wiping them out. And again I'm not saying all of
Speaker 2: Israelis are like that, but the people that you said
Speaker 2: are in power, right, the war cabinet, Ben Yahu and
Speaker 2: his coalition are very much about that. Uh. I just
Speaker 2: think they would you would have a little bit more
Speaker 2: sensitivity to that, to where like we should be able
Speaker 2: to live with these people in a relative piece, work
Speaker 2: together to you know, root out the bad actors and
Speaker 2: stuff like that. But what they're just doing, like just
Speaker 2: going into Gaza and bulldozing Gaza, taking more settlements in
Speaker 2: the West Bank. It's like, dude, if I live there
Speaker 2: and I was Palestinian, what the fuck you? What is
Speaker 2: anyone doing? Man? Like you see your family dying and
Speaker 2: stuff like that, I'm picking up a fucking ak two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, look at Hezbla. You know, people say like, oh, Hesbla.
Speaker 1: It came out of nowhere. It was this crazy organization,
Speaker 1: which yeah, again have to qualify. It's a terrible organization
Speaker 1: that did a lot of violence. But where did it
Speaker 1: come from. Israel invade Lebanon in June sixth, nineteen eighty two.
Speaker 1: There was resistance. Israel was getting their asses handed to
Speaker 1: them in Beirut. Ariel Sharon had called on the United
Speaker 1: States to come support them. The United States sent the
Speaker 1: multinational forces to there to Lebanon. The Marines went there,
Speaker 1: the French went there, the Italians went there, and two
Speaker 1: years later or one year later. The bombings on those
Speaker 1: barracks occurred by these different groups, some were controlled by Syrians,
Speaker 1: and you know, you can get to the long history
Speaker 1: of all this. Hesbla didn't exist till nineteen eighty five.
Speaker 1: There was no Hesbela in nineteen eighty two when Israel invaded,
Speaker 1: and even then Hesbola was very small. Then you look
Speaker 1: at two thousand and six when Israel invaded Lebanon again
Speaker 1: the Thirty Day War. There Hesbola tripled in size after
Speaker 1: that and they gained twelve seats in parliament after Israel
Speaker 1: left Lebanon. Right, So you have this kind of weird
Speaker 1: thing where there's a Israeli action, a military action that causes,
Speaker 1: as you said, people there suddenly changed the way they
Speaker 1: think about things and say, you know what, I don't
Speaker 1: like this. I'm going to resist this. I didn't do
Speaker 1: this before, but because they're threatening my homeland, you better
Speaker 1: believe the pick up a weapon and defend my village.
Speaker 1: Doesn't matter whose bomb it belongs to. You know where
Speaker 1: that came from, Like, I just don't want these people here.
Speaker 1: And that behavior continues to generate resistance that didn't exist,
Speaker 1: It did not exist before and it's it's a very
Speaker 1: short sighted way of going after these conflicts, just like
Speaker 1: in Iran, just like in Gaza and West Bank. It's like, Oh,
Speaker 1: let's hurt them today and that's all that matters. And
Speaker 1: it doesn't seem or feel like they're thinking twenty to
Speaker 1: thirty years in the future about what does this due
Speaker 1: to even our country. To Israel. For example, in twenty eighteen,
Speaker 1: they passed the Jewish Purity Law that says that it's
Speaker 1: a purely Jewish state and there's no other religion recognized
Speaker 1: or all that. If you read the article, it's very
Speaker 1: crazy to read, but doing I mean that article is
Speaker 1: threatened by what they're doing. Right now, twenty five percent
Speaker 1: of their citizens are Palestinian two percent. What about those people?
Speaker 1: How will they feel? You know, especially if they're shut
Speaker 1: out of bunkers today. They're not going to forget that
Speaker 1: and their families won't forget that. You like that is
Speaker 1: that is an idea that lives for a very long
Speaker 1: time and it's not forgotten. And I feel like people
Speaker 1: need to think more about the future, like what does
Speaker 1: this mean down the road? Okay, yeah, what's the second
Speaker 1: and third order effect? Not on just US, but on
Speaker 1: the region and on the greater world area. You know,
Speaker 1: kind of rambling on about that, but it kind of
Speaker 1: blows my mind.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we don't think about it, even like
Speaker 2: even with like in the US with when we went
Speaker 2: into Iraq Afghanistan, we didn't think about the blowback, right,
Speaker 2: we didn't. We didn't go into it thinking like you know,
Speaker 2: we made bad decisions. We didn't think about the you know,
Speaker 2: debatification of what blowback that would look like, uh, destabilizing
Speaker 2: an entire region that did bring on like you know,
Speaker 2: from two thousand and three on, when you get rid
Speaker 2: of Saddam Iran, Iran had was able to like fill
Speaker 2: the vacuum right and cause a civil war in Iraq
Speaker 2: because it's major it's majority Shia right in Iraq. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean so, I'm sure sure there are smart people
Speaker 2: in our govern Obviously they are, right. I've met a
Speaker 2: bunch of them, and it's like when I meet them,
Speaker 2: guys like you are like other people who are like,
Speaker 2: all right, these guys are fucking locked in like they
Speaker 2: they you know, thank God, like they choose to do
Speaker 2: something of service rather than make triple or quadguble the
Speaker 2: money they can make outside somewhere else using their smarts.
Speaker 2: But it just seems so often that the people in
Speaker 2: power don't listen to them, don't listen to the people
Speaker 2: that are like the actual subject matter experts that know
Speaker 2: and then you know, game this out. It's their whole job.
Speaker 2: And when they tell them like clear as day that
Speaker 2: these leaders don't listen, and it's what kind of leaderships
Speaker 2: is that?
Speaker 1: I don't know, what's political decisions that are being made
Speaker 1: without policy information, you know, I don't know if you
Speaker 1: saw that Tulsea Gabbard came out again and said basically
Speaker 1: the regime did not have a nuclear weapon, basically saying
Speaker 1: the same thing we've been saying since two thousand and
Speaker 1: three when we first put out that very first memo
Speaker 1: that said Aaron stopped doing their nuclear program for weaponization.
Speaker 1: And apparently she's getting sidelined because she said that, which
Speaker 1: is it just Actually when I heard that, I was
Speaker 1: thinking about the Abraham Lincoln period when his advisors were
Speaker 1: picked purposely in opposition to each other and to him
Speaker 1: so that way they could come out with it. They
Speaker 1: have a synthesis outcome for a policy debate where like
Speaker 1: I don't agree with you but what if we get
Speaker 1: a better outcome because we because we disagree, we actually
Speaker 1: sit down and listen to it, We talked through it
Speaker 1: and come out with option C. And that is so
Speaker 1: the opposite of what's going on now. And I remember
Speaker 1: during the first administration, the president actually stopped reading the
Speaker 1: Daily CI, the President's Daily Brief, And that's that's amazing
Speaker 1: because that information is the most pure, accurate, up to
Speaker 1: date information. Intelligence is never perfect. Yes, it's gotten certainty
Speaker 1: built into it, but if you want the ground truth
Speaker 1: as close as possible the truth, you can't ignore that stuff.
Speaker 1: And if your entire intelligence community is telling you, hey,
Speaker 1: it's not the way it's being told to you by
Speaker 1: these foreign interests aka Israel, maybe you should take a
Speaker 1: second look at it. But instead you can see it
Speaker 1: political decision is being made rather than an informed decision,
Speaker 1: that political decision or emotional decision is based on individual
Speaker 1: thought rather than constructive sitting down at the table and
Speaker 1: kind of like game planning. I hope that happens today
Speaker 1: at the NFC. I hope generals come in, the IC
Speaker 1: comes in, the OD and I comes in. They all
Speaker 1: sit down and kind of work through this and pick
Speaker 1: the option that makes the most sense for the United
Speaker 1: States and for the world, because people forget we are
Speaker 1: a world power. Even if if someone wants to be isolationists. Okay,
Speaker 1: but you can't change the fact that we are actually
Speaker 1: affecting every corner of this earth right now and will
Speaker 1: be for a very long time, right, and our actions
Speaker 1: have far reaching consequences for everybody, including ourselves.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you can't just decouple from being you know,
Speaker 2: a world power, like an economic world power, right, like
Speaker 2: we make sure the trains run on time. We're a
Speaker 2: huge consumer goods too, like, so yeah, exactly, It's not
Speaker 2: like overnight you could just flip the switch. The interesting
Speaker 2: thing about the NSC is like how many people are left.
Speaker 2: You know, there's probably like nine people in that room,
Speaker 2: you know, like, yeah, I just really hope there are
Speaker 2: some policy wonks in there, some analysts who are like
Speaker 2: sobering analysts who are like, listen, we don't know what
Speaker 2: this is going to happen, you know, And you know
Speaker 2: mentioned that the resistance group that most likely is going
Speaker 2: to have going to be able to like, you know,
Speaker 2: be the if there's a vacuum in Iran, like they're
Speaker 2: probably going to take it over.
Speaker 1: It's possible that Israel tries to push the Shaw's Sun
Speaker 1: into I did see him.
Speaker 2: He's doing TV hits and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, which again, looking back, we've done that twice
Speaker 1: already and both times it worked out badly, and this
Speaker 1: time I don't think it will be any different. Nothing
Speaker 1: against him, The problem is he's been so out of
Speaker 1: it since the eighties. He has not been involved vocal.
Speaker 1: You know, there's no unified opposition besides the Mujahidini Kalk
Speaker 1: in the country and outside the country, and most of
Speaker 1: the Iranians that fled during the revolution didn't go back. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's a disconnect between these two sets of Iranians. Without
Speaker 1: that unification, there's probably going to be some kind of
Speaker 1: chaos right afterward war for a long period of time.
Speaker 2: Weren't we also trying to do this with the guy
Speaker 2: in Iraq who was out of the country for like,
Speaker 2: however thirty years or whatever.
Speaker 1: You mean, Ahmed Shalabi. Yes, yeah, so he was actually
Speaker 1: working for the Iranian government, which actually came out afterward.
Speaker 1: He was like a full fledged Iranian agent, and we
Speaker 1: brought him in and he was the dude that said that,
Speaker 1: Oh there's definitely nukes, there's definitely all this stuff. There's
Speaker 1: these refrigerator trucks driving around with chemical weapons. And then
Speaker 1: we put him in power immediately as soon as we
Speaker 1: over threw the government, which he got what he wanted, right, yeah,
Speaker 1: and then we eventually pushed him away. But I mean,
Speaker 1: something very similar could happen again.
Speaker 2: Right oh man? So yeah, listen, my fingers are crossed.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: I hope, like it's just insane because Trump is so
Speaker 2: unpredictable and like day to day it seems to change.
Speaker 2: And I really hope there is a general in there, somebody.
Speaker 2: There's no natural security advisor. I mean, it's ruby, but
Speaker 2: how you can how can you be the Secretary of
Speaker 2: State and the national security advisor.
Speaker 1: He's also in charge of the archives. By the way,
Speaker 1: he's got three hats.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's just it's it's gnarly to me.
Speaker 2: Uh And you know, I saw another report to where
Speaker 2: like Trump's been talking with Lindsey Graham like all the time,
Speaker 2: Like Lindsay Graham is a proper fucking ghoul demon. I'll
Speaker 2: say it, bro. And it's not because he's a Republican.
Speaker 2: Because Fetterman is also a ghoul demon. It's just it's
Speaker 2: just not smart, it's not strategic, it's not at all
Speaker 2: like it's just like, you guys have a serious job, senators, right,
Speaker 2: you have a serious there's only one hundred of you.
Speaker 2: It's a serious job. It's a sobering job. You should
Speaker 2: take it seriously about going into another country, of bombing
Speaker 2: another country that it might not even work if i'm
Speaker 2: if I'm Iron and they bomb Uh, what's the name
Speaker 2: of the frog? Frog? Though FORDA, Sorry, I am tripling
Speaker 2: my efforts to get a nuclear weapon. Right, Yeah, there's
Speaker 2: a reason why they get him is because it's regime security.
Speaker 2: McK moilroy says that he's like, you could be Libya
Speaker 2: like Kadafi who gave him up, or try and be
Speaker 2: North Korea. The guy's there for one reason, and one
Speaker 2: reason it's because he's got nuclear weapons. Man, I don't know.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be an interesting few weeks for sure. This
Speaker 2: is rarely campaign. They said it's gonna last at least weeks.
Speaker 2: I mean I could see it being a completely indefinite
Speaker 2: Any final thoughts, Well, my.
Speaker 1: Thought is about the Iranian people, because almost every Iranian
Speaker 1: that you meet is anti regime. There's a very very
Speaker 1: tiny minority of people in the country that actually support
Speaker 1: the regime, and most of them are government employees. You know,
Speaker 1: let's say eighty million of these people hate the regime.
Speaker 1: That does not mean that they want the regime just
Speaker 1: eliminated period without an exit strategy. They like, there needs
Speaker 1: to be a way that the people who actually live
Speaker 1: there have a positive outcome, right, That should really be
Speaker 1: the top priority in this situation, not just destroying this
Speaker 1: alleged nuclear bomb that exists somewhere. Instead, it should be
Speaker 1: let's get regional security and regional peace by looking at
Speaker 1: the people that will be affected by our choices in
Speaker 1: those countries. And just today's CNN finally showed footage from
Speaker 1: inside Iran that was the very first Western media outlet
Speaker 1: I saw where there's actually an American journalist walking around
Speaker 1: inside Tehran showing you and of course the regime is
Speaker 1: behind them and the regime is controlling what they see
Speaker 1: for sure. But the destruction that's there is destruction that's there.
Speaker 1: It is not made up. It's not staged.
Speaker 2: Building production design, Yeah.
Speaker 1: Exactly, it's not a set. So if you look at
Speaker 1: the Israeli side, though, how much media coverage is there
Speaker 1: of inside Tel Aviv right now? Oh my god, twenty
Speaker 1: four hours a day. Right. I saw an advertisement it said,
Speaker 1: please send forty five dollars to us because Iran is
Speaker 1: bombing Israel. Israel needs your forty five dollars. I mean,
Speaker 1: there are people making money off this, Yeah, And it's
Speaker 1: sickening to think, like you're putting children and women and
Speaker 1: husbands and all these people at risk in both countries
Speaker 1: and all the countries because you're you ork like not you,
Speaker 1: but you know, some people are so shortsighted and so
Speaker 1: self centered on the situation. They don't understand that this
Speaker 1: is going to have a negative impact on you, you know.
Speaker 2: Right and for generations. Man. Like I was listening to
Speaker 2: some podcasts with a former UH former deputy NSA for
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris. I forget the guy's name anyway, It was
Speaker 2: around foreign affairs, and he said he's like, we don't
Speaker 2: know what, like, you know, the next twenty or thirty
Speaker 2: years are going to look like because it's such a
Speaker 2: disaster in there, like and it's so I'm obviously paraphrasing
Speaker 2: because I'm not as well spoken as this dude, but
Speaker 2: it just doing this like into the unknown, right, Like
Speaker 2: we didn't know that Isis was going to come about
Speaker 2: when we went into Iraq, right, we had no idea
Speaker 2: and like, sure there were gi hotties in Iraq before
Speaker 2: we went in, but AQI was not a didn't exist, right,
Speaker 2: So it's just the blowback is incredible. Also, like in
Speaker 2: across Africa, the fundamental you know, the jihad Is are
Speaker 2: it's proliferated to an extent where it's like almost unbelievable
Speaker 2: to think about.
Speaker 1: I mean, look at the French, they're like, oh, we
Speaker 1: did operations serval, we fixed the problem. And then you
Speaker 1: look fast forward to now and it is so widespread
Speaker 1: across the Sahelmgreb region. There were some effects for sure,
Speaker 1: but it's morphed into something else. You go to Nigeria
Speaker 1: right now, I mean like you are in danger at
Speaker 1: risk from these groups all across the continent, especially in
Speaker 1: the central Sahel region. And that wasn't an accident or
Speaker 1: it didn't come out of coal cloth. That was because
Speaker 1: conditions were set inadvertently by outside action that led to
Speaker 1: these groups expanding.
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, it's really scary. I mean I'm gonna be
Speaker 2: like locked into my fucking phone and Twitter over the
Speaker 2: next like forever. I mean it, and it feels like
Speaker 2: the last they just to end on this. It feels
Speaker 2: like the last few days especially, it's been like a
Speaker 2: waiting game super on Edge, just like I'm like literally
Speaker 2: my thought in my head is like, all right, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna refresh Twitter and I'm gonna see oh yeah, us bombs.
Speaker 2: Fuck what's this? What's it called? Ford Ow? Sorry? Ford
Speaker 2: Ow you know, and you'll see like the rest of
Speaker 2: the people freaking, you know, celebrating like we've done something
Speaker 2: like we you know, like it's V Day or V Day,
Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Like, yeah, all right, Jonathan,
Speaker 2: I want you guys to go and check out. First off,
Speaker 2: Jonathan's episode on the Team House really cool, interesting military career,
Speaker 2: very different than most marines. One of my favorite episodes
Speaker 2: of the recent in recent history in recent times of
Speaker 2: the Team House. His book Threory of a Regular Warfare
Speaker 2: that's out now. People can diet that right now. And
Speaker 2: other book that's coming out I ran Shadow Weapons, which
Speaker 2: goes into like all their covert action and uh, you
Speaker 2: know has be like all the stuff that they do
Speaker 2: that's coming out soon.
Speaker 1: Right, yep, it's coming out in September.
Speaker 2: Okay, so I'm going to put links in the description.
Speaker 2: Make sure everybody grabs that pre orders the new book.
Speaker 2: John's a good egg, really fun time. We should definitely
Speaker 2: do this again, John, this is awesome. Anything else I'm
Speaker 2: trying to think I'm doing the housekeeping. Oh, if you
Speaker 2: want to support the show, you can get to Teamhouse
Speaker 2: and Eyes On Geopolitics completely AD free and early. You
Speaker 2: can go to patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. Of course,
Speaker 2: the rest of the guys all their links are in
Speaker 2: the description. You can check them out there. And yeah, John,
Speaker 2: this is great, bro, Thank you, Yeah, thanks, I appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Hey, guys, it's Jack. I just want to talk to
Speaker 3: you for a moment about how you can support the show.
Speaker 3: If you've been watching it enjoying it, but you'd like
Speaker 3: to get a little bit more involved and help us
Speaker 3: continue to do this, you can check out our patreon.
Speaker 3: It is patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse, and for
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Speaker 3: of these episodes of The Teamhouse ad free. The same
Speaker 3: goes with our affiliated podcast, eyes On with Andy Milburn,
Speaker 3: Jason Lyons, mcmulroy that one. You will also get all
Speaker 3: of those episodes add free and you support the channel
Speaker 3: and the show, and we really appreciate it. The Patreon
Speaker 3: members are literally what has helped this company, this small business, survive,
Speaker 3: especially during our early years, and you are what continues
Speaker 3: to help this thing going even as we navigate the
Speaker 3: turbulent world of YouTube advertising. So we really appreciate all
Speaker 3: of you.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 3: There's going to be a link down in the description
Speaker 3: to that Patreon page, and there is also going to
Speaker 3: be a link to our new merch shop, so if
Speaker 3: you guys want to go and get some Team House merchandise,
Speaker 3: we got stickers and we also have patches, and I
Speaker 3: should mention if you sign up for Patreon at ten
Speaker 3: dollars a month, we will mail you this patch as well,
Speaker 3: so we really appreciate that. But they're also for sale
Speaker 3: on the merch shop and additionally, they got t shirts
Speaker 3: up there, water bottles, a tote bag, coffee mugs, all
Speaker 3: that good stuff, so please go and check them out
Speaker 3: and support the show.
Speaker 2: We really appreciate it, guys.
Speaker 3: Thank you,