WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:03.040 I'd be more concerned about how the US gets further 2 00:00:03.160 --> 00:00:06.919 pulled into the conflict than about specifically what Iran does 3 00:00:06.960 --> 00:00:09.320 in reaction to it, because the regime is very weak. 4 00:00:09.359 --> 00:00:11.919 It has been weak even before this, It's been weakened 5 00:00:11.960 --> 00:00:14.679 for years. So their ability to actually conduct an offense 6 00:00:15.160 --> 00:00:17.440 against the United States is pretty low, even against like 7 00:00:17.480 --> 00:00:19.879 Bahram where we have fifth Fleet, or in Katar where 8 00:00:19.920 --> 00:00:22.199 we have the Air Force, or you know, Afcent, but 9 00:00:22.280 --> 00:00:23.679 it'd be very tough for them to kind of have 10 00:00:23.679 --> 00:00:26.480 a sustained campaign against those. They only have two thousand missiles, 11 00:00:26.519 --> 00:00:29.079 so they've already fired about thirty to fifty percent of them. 12 00:00:29.199 --> 00:00:31.559 So I mean, you've got a Swan song there at 13 00:00:31.559 --> 00:00:33.000 the end where they can launch the rest, but then 14 00:00:33.119 --> 00:00:35.159 then what right. But I'd be more concerned about, Okay, 15 00:00:35.359 --> 00:00:37.560 the US goes in there kind of like operational Anaconda 16 00:00:37.560 --> 00:00:40.280 in Afghanistan. We went in there and we had executed 17 00:00:40.280 --> 00:00:42.719 a flawless invasion, did what we wanted to do in 18 00:00:42.759 --> 00:00:45.000 a few weeks, and we stayed for twenty years. And 19 00:00:45.240 --> 00:00:48.359 that's that's more concerning to me, because that is more 20 00:00:48.600 --> 00:00:50.840 likely because it's easy for us to get wrapped up, 21 00:00:51.000 --> 00:00:53.719 you know, bit by bit by bit pulled into this thing, 22 00:00:53.719 --> 00:00:55.240 and now you're in a position that you can't get 23 00:00:55.280 --> 00:00:55.520 out of. 24 00:01:09.519 --> 00:01:12.840 Everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics, especially 25 00:01:12.879 --> 00:01:16.799 one today with Jonathan Hackett. John did a great, great 26 00:01:16.840 --> 00:01:18.920 interview on the Team House where we talked a bit, 27 00:01:19.359 --> 00:01:22.400 not a bit, a good amount about his uh career 28 00:01:22.640 --> 00:01:26.799 in the Marines. MARSK. I mean, you definitely did have 29 00:01:26.840 --> 00:01:29.920 a very interesting career, dude, Like you know, you worked 30 00:01:29.920 --> 00:01:33.079 at the NSA. D I A like, it doesn't seem 31 00:01:33.120 --> 00:01:36.519 like a prototypical enlisted Marines career. I would say, definitely. 32 00:01:36.640 --> 00:01:37.079 Definitely. 33 00:01:37.680 --> 00:01:41.200 Uh so, yeah, I definitely. I'm recommending everybody go check 34 00:01:41.200 --> 00:01:42.959 that out. I'll put the link in the description too, 35 00:01:43.079 --> 00:01:47.640 for for that, for that episode, for your books too. 36 00:01:47.879 --> 00:01:49.359 All the links will be in the scripture. If you 37 00:01:49.359 --> 00:01:52.200 want to find Jonathan, the links are in the description. 38 00:01:52.439 --> 00:01:54.719 Do not ask me, please, it's in the description because 39 00:01:54.760 --> 00:01:56.280 people like to ask. Even though I put all the 40 00:01:56.280 --> 00:01:59.799 links in the description. Today's gonna be a little bit different. 41 00:02:00.079 --> 00:02:02.200 We're gonna talk more about what's going on obviously in 42 00:02:02.200 --> 00:02:06.920 the world. A lot cooking as usual. It's been about 43 00:02:06.920 --> 00:02:08.879 a week, I would say about a week right since 44 00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:13.560 Israel started bombing Iran and Iran's nuclear facilities. They're nuclear scientists, 45 00:02:13.560 --> 00:02:19.439 their IRGC guys, and shockingly, which I'm saying that sarcastically, 46 00:02:19.879 --> 00:02:22.599 they're trying to bring us into it. I think we've 47 00:02:22.639 --> 00:02:25.680 all seen like the build up of our own you know, 48 00:02:25.800 --> 00:02:29.000 a ton of tankers heading towards the Middle East. F 49 00:02:29.039 --> 00:02:32.280 twenty two's you know, landing in the UK. I think 50 00:02:32.479 --> 00:02:35.639 getting ready to go to the Middle East. The nimits 51 00:02:35.759 --> 00:02:39.360 like Carrier made it like we're stacking up a ton 52 00:02:39.400 --> 00:02:46.639 of equipment in and around that area. Give me your like, 53 00:02:46.960 --> 00:02:48.599 what you're thinking and what you're tracking. 54 00:02:49.639 --> 00:02:52.120 Well. A really interesting indicator of what's going on in 55 00:02:52.159 --> 00:02:55.919 the US side is pizza sales in DC. If you 56 00:02:55.960 --> 00:02:58.479 look at pizza sales outside of the Pentagon, they're like 57 00:02:58.960 --> 00:03:02.520 five times hired and usual even at meal time, which 58 00:03:02.599 --> 00:03:04.800 is very similar to nineteen ninety one, nineteen ninety when 59 00:03:04.800 --> 00:03:07.360 we're doing more plans for the aerial campaign in Iraq 60 00:03:07.439 --> 00:03:10.479 for the first gol War, there was a similar pizza 61 00:03:10.560 --> 00:03:12.759 drive that actually people did a lot of analysis on 62 00:03:12.840 --> 00:03:15.759 and saw, you know, there's more going on than usual, 63 00:03:16.039 --> 00:03:19.240 more than the regular just advising the president on options. 64 00:03:19.639 --> 00:03:21.919 There's an NSC meeting this afternoon where they're going to 65 00:03:21.919 --> 00:03:24.520 probably present him with a menu of options. But I 66 00:03:24.560 --> 00:03:27.919 would I would imagine that it's not just options they're presenting. 67 00:03:27.919 --> 00:03:31.680 They've already got packages in place that once he chooses 68 00:03:31.680 --> 00:03:33.919 one of those options, if he does, it would be 69 00:03:33.960 --> 00:03:38.000 ready to launch instantly. Even Netanyahu said, you know, he 70 00:03:38.080 --> 00:03:40.000 made some light of it on I think it was 71 00:03:40.000 --> 00:03:44.719 Twitter about the Iranians will see something amazing this weekend, 72 00:03:44.800 --> 00:03:46.879 you know, and kind of like bringing that up. So 73 00:03:47.680 --> 00:03:50.039 whether it's Israel doing something or the US doing something, 74 00:03:50.159 --> 00:03:55.080 whether that's Kamani being assassinated, or US using a GBU 75 00:03:55.120 --> 00:03:58.319 fifty seven on ford aw, maybe something, it might be 76 00:03:58.360 --> 00:04:00.719 a third thing that we are just not aware of 77 00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:04.919 could happen. My thought is, what if Comani is not 78 00:04:04.919 --> 00:04:07.680 even in Iran? What if he's in Russia right now, protected? 79 00:04:08.120 --> 00:04:11.800 And how does that change Israel's calculus on that threat, 80 00:04:12.319 --> 00:04:15.120 because without consummating the threat, it's kind of meaningless, especially 81 00:04:15.159 --> 00:04:16.720 if they're they're waving in about the way that they 82 00:04:16.720 --> 00:04:18.120 are today on the media. 83 00:04:18.920 --> 00:04:23.000 Yeah, I mean it was super interesting the last couple 84 00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:28.439 of days, super interesting and also scary and frustrating because 85 00:04:29.199 --> 00:04:32.079 you did see Nan Yahu going around doing their rounds 86 00:04:32.160 --> 00:04:34.079 like American media, like he was on Fox News with 87 00:04:34.120 --> 00:04:36.040 Brett Baer and it was like a lah fucking two 88 00:04:36.040 --> 00:04:40.079 thousand and fucking two when we're like gearing up for Iraq, 89 00:04:40.279 --> 00:04:46.160 and you know, even in Bbe's speech right after they 90 00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:50.279 started hitting it Iran, it was they're a year away, 91 00:04:50.480 --> 00:04:52.839 Like we've heard it year away, year away for so long. 92 00:04:52.879 --> 00:04:54.920 And I understand they've enriched a certain amount and they 93 00:04:54.959 --> 00:04:57.879 need to weaponize it and that takes time. But again, 94 00:04:57.959 --> 00:05:00.279 it wasn't like they have three or four nukes sitting 95 00:05:00.319 --> 00:05:03.839 around pointed at Israel on one of those ballistic missiles. 96 00:05:03.879 --> 00:05:04.040 Right. 97 00:05:04.480 --> 00:05:08.079 It's extremely frustrating, especially I'm gonna editorialize a little bit 98 00:05:08.079 --> 00:05:12.040 because I don't give a shit really seeing a lot 99 00:05:12.120 --> 00:05:14.000 of like the talking heads out there on Twitter and 100 00:05:14.040 --> 00:05:16.160 stuff like that, like guys who have been in Iraq, 101 00:05:16.199 --> 00:05:20.040 been in Afghanistan, seeing like seen war firsthand, seen the 102 00:05:20.079 --> 00:05:22.759 mistakes we've made, and stuff like that, where they're just 103 00:05:22.800 --> 00:05:25.959 like beating the drums. It's not just like the Lindsey Grahams, 104 00:05:26.040 --> 00:05:30.040 you know, who's a fucking ghoul. Let's be honest, or 105 00:05:30.120 --> 00:05:33.360 like Fetterman who are like pro pro Israel, like yeah, 106 00:05:33.399 --> 00:05:35.800 let's do it. It's you know, those guys I understand 107 00:05:35.800 --> 00:05:38.759 because they've probably never been outside of like an air 108 00:05:38.759 --> 00:05:44.279 conditioned room. But like the natural security analyst guys who 109 00:05:44.319 --> 00:05:46.639 have been there and have seen it and they're like 110 00:05:47.519 --> 00:05:51.279 they know better, are like kind of cheering this on, 111 00:05:51.480 --> 00:05:54.360 and it's unreal to me. It's like, have we not 112 00:05:54.519 --> 00:05:57.120 learned anything over the last twenty years. 113 00:05:57.759 --> 00:05:59.959 It's pretty similar though to the Gulf War, the first one, 114 00:06:00.079 --> 00:06:01.839 because you had a lot of Vietnam vets that were 115 00:06:01.879 --> 00:06:04.600 generals at that time. Even in the First Iraq War, 116 00:06:04.680 --> 00:06:06.920 you still had some holdovers from that period, especially from 117 00:06:06.920 --> 00:06:10.839 the eighties when special operations became the doctrinal thing. A 118 00:06:10.879 --> 00:06:13.519 lot of people died in those conflicts, and yet those 119 00:06:13.560 --> 00:06:16.319 people were the loudest saber rattlers trying to get us 120 00:06:16.360 --> 00:06:19.839 in immediately, you know, like in the president's ear saying 121 00:06:19.879 --> 00:06:21.560 like no, we got to go right now. And if 122 00:06:21.600 --> 00:06:25.680 you go back to the nineties when Netnaho first became powerful, essentially, 123 00:06:25.720 --> 00:06:29.160 especially the mid nineties, his advisors basically came to him 124 00:06:29.160 --> 00:06:31.399 with a paper called the Clean Break Memo that talked 125 00:06:31.399 --> 00:06:35.000 about overthrowing three countries in the Middle East, first Iraq, 126 00:06:35.160 --> 00:06:38.600 second Syria, and third Iran. And if you look at today, 127 00:06:38.879 --> 00:06:41.920 they've been working on that ever since then. In two 128 00:06:41.959 --> 00:06:45.319 thousand and three, the Masad actually changed their number one 129 00:06:45.319 --> 00:06:49.439 priority targets from Palestinian focused targets like the PFLP of 130 00:06:49.480 --> 00:06:53.720 the PLO to Iran number one, number two Hesboa and 131 00:06:53.839 --> 00:06:56.519 number three Hamas. And that was a clear shift that 132 00:06:56.560 --> 00:06:59.959 Nennyahu actually pushed toward that goal. And as you said, 133 00:07:00.120 --> 00:07:03.360 the year after that, we invaded Iraq. We overthrew Iraq 134 00:07:03.439 --> 00:07:06.199 as they told us to. And then we've been working 135 00:07:06.240 --> 00:07:08.800 against the Syrian government ever since then. Even though Syria 136 00:07:08.839 --> 00:07:10.319 helped us in the very beginning of the war, they 137 00:07:10.360 --> 00:07:12.439 gave us intel, they gave us satellite imagery, they told 138 00:07:12.519 --> 00:07:15.360 us where guys were at in Syria, we brushed that aside, 139 00:07:15.600 --> 00:07:18.079 and ever since then we did COVID action in Syria 140 00:07:18.160 --> 00:07:21.399 under Timber Sycamore, where we tried to overthrow the government 141 00:07:21.639 --> 00:07:24.360 and eventually it actually succeeded. Last December. Yeah, it was 142 00:07:24.480 --> 00:07:26.920 check mark number two. And then you've got the final 143 00:07:27.000 --> 00:07:29.480 check mark, which is the most difficult piece for them 144 00:07:29.600 --> 00:07:31.639 for Israel to move and that is Iran and it's 145 00:07:31.639 --> 00:07:32.399 happening right now. 146 00:07:33.680 --> 00:07:35.959 Yeah, it's incredible when you lay it out like that. 147 00:07:38.439 --> 00:07:40.759 You know it's taken thirty years or more, but it's 148 00:07:40.839 --> 00:07:44.240 it's almost there. I mean also a bit of like 149 00:07:44.279 --> 00:07:48.480 the wishful thinking you see from you know, because I'm 150 00:07:48.560 --> 00:07:51.759 not I'm a dumb civilian, right, but I've talked enough 151 00:07:51.800 --> 00:07:56.519 like salty CIA guys, especially CIA guys who were like 152 00:07:56.600 --> 00:08:02.040 involved are working while Iraq was building, where they talk 153 00:08:02.079 --> 00:08:05.000 about it like where the wishful thinking is where you 154 00:08:05.040 --> 00:08:08.360 get in trouble, right totally, And I see a lot 155 00:08:08.399 --> 00:08:10.680 of that, like talking about regime change, like are people 156 00:08:10.720 --> 00:08:13.319 protesting in the streets really? I mean obviously not because 157 00:08:13.360 --> 00:08:14.360 you're getting bombed, but. 158 00:08:14.480 --> 00:08:17.240 Well, actually, interesting you say that they just executed some 159 00:08:17.319 --> 00:08:20.160 protesters that were protesting two days ago. They captured them 160 00:08:20.199 --> 00:08:22.480 the same day and killed them the same day. So 161 00:08:22.519 --> 00:08:26.000 they are violently tapping down any resistance in the country. 162 00:08:26.279 --> 00:08:28.519 The strongest resistance of the regime that exists is the 163 00:08:28.600 --> 00:08:32.279 Mujahedini khalk MK, which was also an enemy of the 164 00:08:32.320 --> 00:08:35.799 Shah back in the seventies. They had a mutual understanding 165 00:08:35.799 --> 00:08:37.360 with the regime in the first couple of years after 166 00:08:37.399 --> 00:08:41.559 the revolution, and then the regime executed three thousand plus 167 00:08:41.879 --> 00:08:44.799 prisoners of the Mek prisoners essentially in the nineteen eighties 168 00:08:44.879 --> 00:08:49.000 late eighties. Ibrahim Raysi was named the hanging judge back then. 169 00:08:49.159 --> 00:08:51.240 He became president later and then died in a helicopter. 170 00:08:51.799 --> 00:08:56.120 But that is the largest resistance group. Believe me, you 171 00:08:56.159 --> 00:08:59.759 do not want that group leading Iran. It's a quasi 172 00:08:59.799 --> 00:09:04.240 Marxist cult essentially, that's based out of Albania. Israel. Masad 173 00:09:04.279 --> 00:09:06.840 has been working with them. That's their number one group 174 00:09:06.879 --> 00:09:10.039 they work with outside of Iraq and Iran to actually 175 00:09:10.080 --> 00:09:11.679 get stuff in. Like when you see all this stuff 176 00:09:11.720 --> 00:09:15.039 smuggled into Iran, most of the time, it's Mujahidini Kalk 177 00:09:15.200 --> 00:09:18.919 moving it in, not Masad. It's Masad running agents. Those 178 00:09:18.960 --> 00:09:21.399 agents are Iranian and they're moving stuff in. But the 179 00:09:21.399 --> 00:09:25.039 way Israel advertises it to kind of like upsell their footprint, 180 00:09:25.080 --> 00:09:26.919 like oh, we got inside Iran, it's like you didn't. 181 00:09:26.919 --> 00:09:30.519 Actually you've had guys recruited that did that. Guys that 182 00:09:30.559 --> 00:09:33.679 are not the right people you want leading ninety million people, 183 00:09:33.799 --> 00:09:36.600 which Ted Cruz can't even name. The number of inside 184 00:09:36.639 --> 00:09:46.440 the country is going Yeah. 185 00:09:42.799 --> 00:09:46.200 I mean it's actually I really appreciate you bringing that up, right, like, 186 00:09:46.200 --> 00:09:49.399 because we really haven't really i mean general public layman's 187 00:09:49.480 --> 00:09:53.759 like myself don't really know, like, yeah, what's the resistance 188 00:09:54.080 --> 00:09:57.559 in Iran look like? And like you said, like I'm 189 00:09:57.559 --> 00:09:59.200 not surprised that they're not going to come in and 190 00:09:59.240 --> 00:10:03.519 be like this lib democracy that loves fucking elections and 191 00:10:03.559 --> 00:10:08.759 all that stuff. So yeah, and also a great point 192 00:10:08.840 --> 00:10:10.879 bringing up like yeah, like the you know, because everyone 193 00:10:10.960 --> 00:10:12.799 was talking about how, oh my god, Mussad did this 194 00:10:12.919 --> 00:10:15.480 drone thing and like hit the ballistic missiles before they 195 00:10:16.200 --> 00:10:17.559 you know, they had guys on the ground and I'm 196 00:10:17.559 --> 00:10:20.919 sure they had a couple you know, singletons and operators 197 00:10:20.960 --> 00:10:22.279 on the ground and stuff. But like you said, the 198 00:10:22.360 --> 00:10:26.000 facilitated all they need. Irani's right, who can go in 199 00:10:26.080 --> 00:10:27.639 and out? And I did see a couple of days 200 00:10:27.679 --> 00:10:31.200 ago they executed like twenty or so agents that they 201 00:10:31.240 --> 00:10:37.679 call it, like Mussad agents. It's just insane, honestly, man, 202 00:10:37.759 --> 00:10:43.320 I'm like so taken aback by this that, like the 203 00:10:43.399 --> 00:10:46.480 drums of war are just like spinning and bat and 204 00:10:46.559 --> 00:10:49.200 baying so loud. Also, like there was you gov did 205 00:10:49.200 --> 00:10:51.679 a poll, like sixteen percent of Americans do not want 206 00:10:51.720 --> 00:10:54.679 to do this. H sixteen percent of Americans do want 207 00:10:54.720 --> 00:10:55.679 to do this, the rest do not. 208 00:10:55.879 --> 00:10:57.360 Like that's pretty significant. 209 00:10:57.600 --> 00:11:01.399 Yeah, I mean so in terms it's like political suicide. 210 00:11:01.399 --> 00:11:03.440 I mean, I guess like Trump definitely is teflon and 211 00:11:03.480 --> 00:11:05.919 he doesn't really have that to worry about. You do 212 00:11:06.000 --> 00:11:08.399 see a split in the base there, like the MAGA 213 00:11:08.399 --> 00:11:10.480 base and stuff like that. There are people like streaming 214 00:11:10.519 --> 00:11:13.159 from the rooftops, but I don't know what that really 215 00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:17.279 is gonna end up doing for Trump anyway, in terms 216 00:11:17.279 --> 00:11:21.840 of like politically, talk a little bit about more like, yeah, 217 00:11:21.840 --> 00:11:24.679 the inner dynamics of what it looks like in Iran 218 00:11:24.759 --> 00:11:27.519 right now. I mean, especially a little bit more about 219 00:11:27.519 --> 00:11:28.559 the resistance group. 220 00:11:29.320 --> 00:11:31.279 So, first of all, big problem in Iran right now 221 00:11:31.360 --> 00:11:34.679 for the regular Iranians is fear. They're afraid of what's happening, 222 00:11:34.679 --> 00:11:37.480 because even though Israel says they're there to help, they've 223 00:11:37.519 --> 00:11:40.039 killed hundreds of people that are not involved in anything, 224 00:11:40.200 --> 00:11:44.799 and we know that they do that frequently. But because 225 00:11:44.799 --> 00:11:47.120 of that fear, Iranians don't know what to do, where 226 00:11:47.159 --> 00:11:48.840 to go. They're trying to get out of Tehran. A 227 00:11:48.840 --> 00:11:50.240 lot of them are they're trying to go up into 228 00:11:50.279 --> 00:11:52.759 the mountains, like in the west, which is courage, or 229 00:11:52.799 --> 00:11:55.480 down south. The problem is down south, sixty miles south 230 00:11:55.600 --> 00:11:57.759 is ford out. So if they try to go south, 231 00:11:58.080 --> 00:12:01.039 now they're entering a new conflict zone that probably tomorrow 232 00:12:01.200 --> 00:12:03.480 or tonight will become you know, the center of the 233 00:12:03.480 --> 00:12:04.159 conflict zone. 234 00:12:04.360 --> 00:12:05.279 Yeah, and they're. 235 00:12:05.080 --> 00:12:06.240 Trying to get out. And a lot of these people 236 00:12:06.240 --> 00:12:08.720 in Tehran, they're they're city people. They don't they don't 237 00:12:08.720 --> 00:12:11.799 live outside, you know, like probably outside this big metropolitan area. 238 00:12:11.840 --> 00:12:13.360 So for them, I mean, imagine if you're living in 239 00:12:13.360 --> 00:12:15.919 New York your entire life and someone says, like, evacuate 240 00:12:15.960 --> 00:12:19.240 up to get the cat skills, I'm far Yeah, you know, 241 00:12:19.360 --> 00:12:20.159 like that's crazy. 242 00:12:20.279 --> 00:12:22.480 I'm a concrete princess, dude, exactly. 243 00:12:22.679 --> 00:12:25.440 Yeah, And that's what's going through a lot of people's minds. 244 00:12:25.440 --> 00:12:27.759 Plus like food and water and think about you always 245 00:12:27.799 --> 00:12:30.200 got to think about the day after. So let's say 246 00:12:30.200 --> 00:12:34.000 that Khmani dies today, what happens tomorrow? I mean, if 247 00:12:34.039 --> 00:12:36.279 you already took out all these top leaders, who, don't 248 00:12:36.279 --> 00:12:39.480 get me wrong, are murderous villains, you know, these IRGC generals, 249 00:12:39.480 --> 00:12:41.919 these guys have killed thousands of Iranians inside the country, 250 00:12:43.440 --> 00:12:46.480 of course, but what will replace them as far as 251 00:12:46.559 --> 00:12:49.200 law and order and social structure, and you're going to 252 00:12:49.240 --> 00:12:52.519 see just I predict, just like Iraq, there was looting, 253 00:12:52.639 --> 00:12:56.679 widespread violent crime, just totally unrestrained. You know, once you 254 00:12:56.759 --> 00:12:58.720 once you take the framework off of a society, it 255 00:12:58.720 --> 00:13:01.000 doesn't matter where it is. Look at France in the 256 00:13:01.000 --> 00:13:04.440 eighteen hundreds, after Napoleon, there was Napoleon, then there was 257 00:13:04.480 --> 00:13:06.480 a monarch, then there was Napoleon, then there was a monarch. 258 00:13:06.480 --> 00:13:08.759 That's where communism actually came from, because there was a 259 00:13:08.799 --> 00:13:12.799 Paris Commune twice, you know, and it was really really violent. 260 00:13:12.879 --> 00:13:16.320 It was totally unrestrained. And I think that Iran that's 261 00:13:16.360 --> 00:13:19.159 probably the most likely outcome. If this happened tonight, that's 262 00:13:19.200 --> 00:13:23.039 what would happen tomorrow. And that's very scary because whatever 263 00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:26.720 Israel says rhetoric, why is whatever netyah who says, where's 264 00:13:26.759 --> 00:13:29.840 the actual help that will come the day after? And 265 00:13:29.879 --> 00:13:33.039 I don't think it doesn't seem that that is part 266 00:13:33.080 --> 00:13:35.879 of the plan. In fact, I think chaos is probably 267 00:13:35.879 --> 00:13:39.320 more preferred, especially if you look at Israeli domestic politics 268 00:13:40.120 --> 00:13:43.120 the longer conflict goes on, the more netnya who's survival 269 00:13:43.200 --> 00:13:46.480 is assured. He's a human being, everyone's a human being. 270 00:13:46.559 --> 00:13:48.600 Everyone wants to keep doing the thing they want to do, 271 00:13:48.960 --> 00:13:50.840 and he sees the writing on the wall. You know, 272 00:13:50.879 --> 00:13:53.840 before October seventh, hundreds of thousands of people were protesting 273 00:13:53.879 --> 00:13:56.720 against his government in the streets. That switched off immediately 274 00:13:56.919 --> 00:14:00.159 and has not started up again. So the longer this 275 00:14:00.200 --> 00:14:03.080 can go on, the slower burn this could be. Yeah, 276 00:14:03.080 --> 00:14:06.559 better domestically it is for him against his own you know, 277 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:07.840 opponents in the country. 278 00:14:08.919 --> 00:14:11.799 Yeah, I did. I remember, like they were like talking 279 00:14:11.919 --> 00:14:15.039 or spin it up like a possible no confidence vote 280 00:14:15.120 --> 00:14:16.840 or whatever in the parliament, and that kind of like 281 00:14:16.879 --> 00:14:17.399 went away. 282 00:14:17.919 --> 00:14:21.279 But that was the day before the launch of the strikes. 283 00:14:21.960 --> 00:14:23.879 That'll do it, I guess, right, Like you have a 284 00:14:23.879 --> 00:14:26.399 bigger enemy to fry now, and it's it's Iran, and 285 00:14:26.440 --> 00:14:29.720 it's like the big boogeyman. And again, like I'm not 286 00:14:29.799 --> 00:14:32.360 the type of guy that's like saying like Israel shouldn't 287 00:14:32.399 --> 00:14:35.720 be secure, right, I think they've done a relatively great 288 00:14:35.799 --> 00:14:38.679 job of staying secure. Their armed to the teeth, right, 289 00:14:39.120 --> 00:14:42.840 they have the best military in the region probably by 290 00:14:42.879 --> 00:14:45.879 a lot. Right, Like there's some talk about like Egypt 291 00:14:45.960 --> 00:14:48.840 being like as good, but like I don't technologically, I 292 00:14:48.879 --> 00:14:54.480 don't believe it. So it's like Israel is pretty much secure. 293 00:14:54.639 --> 00:14:56.840 I mean, the only time we've ever seen even last 294 00:14:56.919 --> 00:15:00.639 year when they hit like Irani and U air defence 295 00:15:00.720 --> 00:15:03.559 radars and stuff like that, Like the response was like 296 00:15:03.639 --> 00:15:06.840 a coordinated response, right ye, just saying like hey, we 297 00:15:06.960 --> 00:15:09.240 have to respond, no one's actually gonna die. I think 298 00:15:09.279 --> 00:15:14.840 one person died and it was an Arabic girl, but 299 00:15:14.919 --> 00:15:17.960 it was very coordinated, very like you know, for for 300 00:15:18.240 --> 00:15:21.399 lack of a better word, for show really now like 301 00:15:21.639 --> 00:15:24.720 ballistic missiles are hitting in downtown Tel Aviv. People are 302 00:15:24.799 --> 00:15:28.440 dying in downtown Tel Aviv, where like I don't think 303 00:15:28.480 --> 00:15:30.759 they're exactly used to it. I know, I know they're 304 00:15:30.879 --> 00:15:32.759 used to living in like a world like that where 305 00:15:32.799 --> 00:15:36.360 they hear rockets come in from other tamasu the Hesbola, 306 00:15:36.440 --> 00:15:39.720 but it's relatively it was at least relatively few and 307 00:15:39.759 --> 00:15:43.240 far between. Now they're getting peppered right. 308 00:15:44.320 --> 00:15:46.720 In different munitions this time because the ones from Hesbal 309 00:15:46.759 --> 00:15:50.679 are smaller ordnate, smaller order, you know, explosions, these are 310 00:15:50.799 --> 00:15:53.440 medium range ballistic missiles or larger which have a very 311 00:15:53.519 --> 00:15:56.240 large impact. So again that fear factor when you hear 312 00:15:56.279 --> 00:16:00.000 an explosion that's this small, like small you know, around 313 00:16:00.039 --> 00:16:03.279 your city block versus one that's heard around the whole city, 314 00:16:03.799 --> 00:16:07.120 big difference in how people feel in the city, you know. 315 00:16:07.559 --> 00:16:13.120 Totally going back to like the GBU fifty seven, right, 316 00:16:13.120 --> 00:16:15.200 which only the B two can carry. They can carry 317 00:16:15.200 --> 00:16:20.240 two a pop. There was like reporting, I believe it 318 00:16:20.320 --> 00:16:23.919 was washed Wall Street Journal where like Trump was asking 319 00:16:23.960 --> 00:16:27.639 his generals and his NFC, like, hey, is can this 320 00:16:27.799 --> 00:16:31.080 actually work? Like can it really take out or really 321 00:16:31.679 --> 00:16:36.559 degrade their nuclear program? According to the article, they're saying 322 00:16:36.559 --> 00:16:40.360 that the general said yes, it can. Of course, prior 323 00:16:40.720 --> 00:16:43.000 to like this going down and when this was just 324 00:16:43.080 --> 00:16:46.679 conjecture everyone talking about and analyzing it they said, people 325 00:16:46.679 --> 00:16:51.200 were saying, no, it'll probably center back maybe three six months, 326 00:16:51.960 --> 00:16:58.000 and then they'll redouble their efforts. So what's changed besides like, oh, no, 327 00:16:58.080 --> 00:16:59.960 it's time to go to war and like we don't 328 00:17:00.200 --> 00:17:02.240 give a shit about like the actual truth that's on 329 00:17:02.279 --> 00:17:03.799 the ground or what actually can happen. 330 00:17:04.319 --> 00:17:05.880 Well, the way our mind works is we try to 331 00:17:06.000 --> 00:17:09.480 arrange information in a way that makes our desired outcome 332 00:17:09.599 --> 00:17:13.359 the more accepted outcome. And I think because people are 333 00:17:13.359 --> 00:17:16.400 being pushed in the direction of using the weapon, a 334 00:17:16.440 --> 00:17:18.359 lot more of the rhetoric in support of it is 335 00:17:18.400 --> 00:17:23.119 getting center stage, while the other information is being pushed 336 00:17:23.119 --> 00:17:25.839 to the side, especially when you have hawks around in 337 00:17:25.880 --> 00:17:27.640 the administration saying, oh, no, we just got to do it. 338 00:17:27.880 --> 00:17:29.839 But you look at the maximum effective depth of that 339 00:17:29.839 --> 00:17:33.359 it's two hundred feet. Well, the site in ford Ou 340 00:17:33.559 --> 00:17:35.839 is at least three hundred feet, so you're already looking 341 00:17:35.880 --> 00:17:39.240 at a math problem. Doesn't make sense, and that's at 342 00:17:39.359 --> 00:17:41.559 least three hundred feet. What if it's deeper. What if 343 00:17:41.599 --> 00:17:44.640 the material composition of that mountain is such that you 344 00:17:44.720 --> 00:17:48.799 require even more for a shorter depth, you require more munition. 345 00:17:49.119 --> 00:17:51.599 And of course they've done measurements signature intelligence to know 346 00:17:51.640 --> 00:17:55.200 what the composition is of the mountain. But I would 347 00:17:55.279 --> 00:17:57.480 question that math right up front, and then I would 348 00:17:57.480 --> 00:17:59.400 also look at the other nuclear facilities, because there's only 349 00:17:59.400 --> 00:18:02.119 one thousand cent reviews is at Ford Out. The fact 350 00:18:02.160 --> 00:18:04.960 that it's deeply buried makes us suspicious that perhaps this 351 00:18:05.079 --> 00:18:07.960 is a location that has either a bomb almost constructed 352 00:18:08.039 --> 00:18:11.240 or constructed, or the best part of their uranium stockpile 353 00:18:11.279 --> 00:18:14.559 could be there. Maybe. But I just saw Vladimir Putin 354 00:18:14.599 --> 00:18:19.599 talking yesterday about Boucher, because in Boucher, which is another facility, 355 00:18:19.960 --> 00:18:23.119 there's two hundred Russian scientists and technicians from rosatoone working 356 00:18:23.160 --> 00:18:26.079 there right now, and apparently he reached a separate piece 357 00:18:26.119 --> 00:18:29.480 with neat Yahoo where Netanyahu agreed not to strike Boucher 358 00:18:29.839 --> 00:18:32.519 in this conflict, which is very interesting because if the 359 00:18:32.519 --> 00:18:35.519 Iranians see the news like we see the news, that 360 00:18:35.559 --> 00:18:40.440 would probably stimulate them to perhaps move their uranium right now, 361 00:18:40.759 --> 00:18:42.559 or maybe they already did and we just don't know it. 362 00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:45.160 There's a lot of unknown here because the noise floor 363 00:18:45.200 --> 00:18:47.559 is very high in this situation, and there's a lot 364 00:18:47.599 --> 00:18:51.880 of misinformation and misunderstanding going on because in this type 365 00:18:51.880 --> 00:18:53.920 of conflict, a lot of experts just kind of emerge 366 00:18:53.960 --> 00:18:57.240 out of the woodwork, throwing around things that they remember 367 00:18:57.279 --> 00:18:59.599 from their time maybe ten years ago, twenty years ago 368 00:19:00.440 --> 00:19:01.559 is not accurate today. 369 00:19:04.559 --> 00:19:07.440 Yeah, man, I mean again, I'm gonna keep saying it's 370 00:19:07.440 --> 00:19:13.000 freaking scary, dude, because it also seems to be happening 371 00:19:13.039 --> 00:19:17.160 a lot faster now than what I remember from like Iraq, 372 00:19:17.400 --> 00:19:19.759 you know, like Iraq was like a year long kind 373 00:19:19.839 --> 00:19:22.920 of media blitz, and that's probably having to do with 374 00:19:22.960 --> 00:19:24.960 like social media and how stuff is so fast. 375 00:19:25.039 --> 00:19:28.440 But well, I'll say, back then, it took longer, I 376 00:19:28.480 --> 00:19:34.839 think because Israel had to convince the American public to act. Now, Israel, 377 00:19:35.079 --> 00:19:38.119 every country does intelligence work, right. There are no allies 378 00:19:38.119 --> 00:19:41.160 in the intelligence world. There are only interests. Israel collects 379 00:19:41.160 --> 00:19:44.519 intelligence just like we do on everybody. They're doing assessments 380 00:19:44.559 --> 00:19:47.799 not only of Ayatola Kameni, they're also doing assessments of 381 00:19:47.839 --> 00:19:51.799 Donald Trump about his decision making ways. And they've probably 382 00:19:51.839 --> 00:19:54.319 determined that they don't have to convince the American public 383 00:19:54.359 --> 00:19:56.440 of this. All they have to do is convince Donald Trump, 384 00:19:56.839 --> 00:19:58.480 and they probably know how to do it because they're 385 00:19:58.519 --> 00:20:00.440 looking at how he reacts a different things and they're 386 00:20:00.440 --> 00:20:02.640 seeing which pressure points can we push today to make 387 00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:05.720 an outcome tomorrow. Doing the same thing with Putin right, 388 00:20:05.960 --> 00:20:08.160 and that's not unusual, I mean, that's what states do. 389 00:20:08.240 --> 00:20:10.400 It's just unfortunate in the situation like this where so 390 00:20:10.440 --> 00:20:14.000 many lives are at stake, both Israeli lives, Iranian lives, 391 00:20:14.000 --> 00:20:16.480 and most of all American lives. We don't need to 392 00:20:16.519 --> 00:20:19.119 be sending our troops to go die in Iran. And 393 00:20:19.119 --> 00:20:21.400 if people remember the Iran Iraq war in nineteen eighty 394 00:20:21.440 --> 00:20:24.200 to eighty eight, the way that Iran thought that war 395 00:20:24.880 --> 00:20:28.799 was brutal, right, and very similar situation actually to right now. 396 00:20:29.039 --> 00:20:32.119 Saddam hussein'sa on opportunity. A few months after the revolution 397 00:20:32.240 --> 00:20:34.160 nineteen seventy nine, he said, oh, it's a weak country. 398 00:20:34.160 --> 00:20:35.720 Now I can just go in and invade and we'll 399 00:20:35.720 --> 00:20:37.960 take it. He went in and he was met with 400 00:20:38.240 --> 00:20:41.519 massive opposition. And it's interesting because before that there was 401 00:20:41.599 --> 00:20:44.720