Speaker 1: Rate hikes in coming or not today. We'll break it
Speaker 1: down for you because there is a lot starting to
Speaker 1: move in terms of where the FED is going to
Speaker 1: impose rate hikes. Let's just get into it. I do
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Speaker 1: I want to lead off with President Trump's economy speech
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. This was something to listen to. Take
Speaker 1: a look.
Speaker 2: Dating trip alone American the stock market all time highs,
Speaker 2: the highest stock markets in history.
Speaker 3: Yesterday went up almost a thousand points. Right. The tariffs
Speaker 3: have made us rich. Remember I used to say that
Speaker 3: tariffs are my favorite word. Their pressed was killing me,
Speaker 3: so I moved it to my fifth favorite word. And
Speaker 3: now I say it's number five, and I'm in good shape.
Speaker 3: But it has it's made as rich, it's made as rich.
Speaker 3: All these companies are moving in and building their plants.
Speaker 3: Manufacturing is exploding at the fastest pace in many years.
Speaker 3: Nobody thought this would ever happen again. Last month, inflation
Speaker 3: dropped at the fastest rate it's dropped in many years.
Speaker 3: More Americans are working in the United States right now
Speaker 3: than at any point in the history of our country.
Speaker 4: Speak of it.
Speaker 3: You don't hear that Donald's Trump polls on the economy
Speaker 3: aren't good. The economy is the greatest economy we've ever
Speaker 3: had by far. That man right there, miss the wall,
Speaker 3: please stand up.
Speaker 5: Look at him.
Speaker 3: He's a rich guy. And they checked him out. They
Speaker 3: said he's a very rich man.
Speaker 4: He has to be.
Speaker 3: He goes to so many rallies, the great Phil Ruffin.
Speaker 3: He made a fortune here. He just makes money out
Speaker 3: of these a money machine. They loaded, They're loaded. They
Speaker 3: owned this hotel, the sleepy Joe Biden, and the very corrupt,
Speaker 3: and it was the most corrupt administration.
Speaker 6: All right.
Speaker 1: So there you have it, guys. Obviously, the point behind
Speaker 1: this is a lot of the claims that Trump is
Speaker 1: making are just not necessarily happening. What you have right
Speaker 1: now is a split market, and the split market is
Speaker 1: mostly rewarding a lot of billionaires and a lot of
Speaker 1: major corporations that of course have benefited from these teriffs
Speaker 1: now getting big paychecks back on these tariff refunds. And
Speaker 1: I think also the job consistency has started to stabilize
Speaker 1: in a sense that it may not be increasing the
Speaker 1: way that we thought it was, so that in itself
Speaker 1: is going to continue to put more pressure on the FED.
Speaker 1: And as we look at the FED chair, he is
Speaker 1: reportedly open to a September rate hike if inflation continues
Speaker 1: to run hot. And this is coming in from three
Speaker 1: FOMC members, And this is something we already saw in
Speaker 1: the previous month when we looked at the last closer
Speaker 1: vote than I thought in terms of dissension among the
Speaker 1: FED chairs in the last FOMC meetings. So likelihood here
Speaker 1: is could he deviate away from Trump's plan. That is
Speaker 1: the real question. I don't know that he will, but
Speaker 1: there may be some situations here that force him into
Speaker 1: a really hard position. Bank of America CEO Brian Monahan.
Speaker 1: He says he reiterated that the banks forecast is three
Speaker 1: FED rate hikes in September, October, December. Some people are
Speaker 1: pointing at two FED rate hikes. This is where I
Speaker 1: get on the fence, because the current economic condition does
Speaker 1: warrant it. The problem is is that I think what's
Speaker 1: going on between Warsh and Trump, whether this is going
Speaker 1: to be a pause and that's a win, or if
Speaker 1: there may end up being a rake cut. This is
Speaker 1: one of those situations that with this particular FED, because
Speaker 1: you're getting no forward guidance, is starting to show a
Speaker 1: little bit of inconsistency here. And one of the things
Speaker 1: that will trigger this, of course, is going to be
Speaker 1: energy prices. Here you have Trump saying all prices are
Speaker 1: going down, but we may have to send it up again.
Speaker 1: So what does that mean? Does he know something? Is
Speaker 1: he's starting to give us some insights that there is
Speaker 1: more trouble brewing in the Middle East that would cause
Speaker 1: obviously West Texas crew and more energy sources to continue
Speaker 1: to spike. Remember, this has been hovering around seventy five
Speaker 1: to eighty bucks a barrel, which is somewhat tolerable. Once
Speaker 1: you get over eighty to ninety bucks a barrel, it
Speaker 1: gets a little bit outside of the range of most Americans.
Speaker 1: One hundred bucks of barrel, now you have a problem.
Speaker 1: And of course that's when the FED starts to feel
Speaker 1: the pinch. And if you look at this right here,
Speaker 1: Trump has repeatedly spoken with Warsh over the phone, and
Speaker 1: I think the pressure is going to continue to come
Speaker 1: on Wsh to hold rates at least and possibly be
Speaker 1: in a position where he starts to maybe look at
Speaker 1: a rate cut. I don't think that's going to happen, though.
Speaker 1: I think he's going to at very best hold rates.
Speaker 1: If we do get into a nastier position right now economically,
Speaker 1: if Trump is already pivoting on oil prices, could he
Speaker 1: pivot in reference to Warsh trying to get him into
Speaker 1: a rate hike understanding the presence of the economy being
Speaker 1: a huge force driving what I think will be a
Speaker 1: big major pullback on the overall market. I think these
Speaker 1: are the things that right now are on Morsh's mind,
Speaker 1: and maybe that's why we're starting to see a lot
Speaker 1: of analysts pointing to rate hikes later this year. Let
Speaker 1: me know what you guys think, though, Do you think
Speaker 1: we'll get a rate hike? If not, just put rate
Speaker 1: hike or no rate hike down in the comments. I'm
Speaker 1: kind of curious because we're getting a lot of mixed
Speaker 1: a lot of mixed signals coming out of both sides
Speaker 1: on whether or not this is going to happen. One
Speaker 1: other thing you have to look at is, of course
Speaker 1: you got the Secretary Treasurer Scott Bessett kind of hitting
Speaker 1: on Wall Street Journals Nick Timmerosen. Basically, it's point too
Speaker 1: right now we have nothing coming out of the FED,
Speaker 1: and when I say we meeting the media has nothing
Speaker 1: really coming out in terms of forward guidance. So Wall
Speaker 1: Street journal is out there trying to figure out what
Speaker 1: is happening. Does anybody know anything? Is there any kind
Speaker 1: of potential opportunity on the FED back room side, much
Speaker 1: like backchannels work in a lot of policymaking, I think
Speaker 1: now is getting into the point of where news is
Speaker 1: going to have to come from, since we're not seeing
Speaker 1: that coming in from the FED themselves, like what it
Speaker 1: used to be with CHERA. Powell, where he was fairly
Speaker 1: open and you could somewhat navigate this. This, I think
Speaker 1: is a very interesting time ahead right now. I want
Speaker 1: to play a clip here because this where people actually
Speaker 1: start thinking that we're going to get two fed rake hikes.
Speaker 7: Take a look, Thank America thinks three rate hikes. I
Speaker 7: don't think it's going to I think they're wrong. Think
Speaker 7: they're going to have to say, oops.
Speaker 8: I don't think we get a three. But I came
Speaker 8: from a possibility of two this time or this year
Speaker 8: or early next year, because I think the inflation pressures
Speaker 8: are not going to subside quickly enough, and I think
Speaker 8: the kid and this year, I want to hold onto
Speaker 8: their credibility, assuming that that oil does not come back
Speaker 8: down very quickly, and even if it does, is inflation
Speaker 8: in the pipeline. And finally you got the fact that
Speaker 8: you know, the chair has been very clear that five
Speaker 8: years of missing the target is really unacceptable.
Speaker 7: Did you see the whole netimber. You probably didn't like that.
Speaker 4: I didn't love it.
Speaker 7: Well, I didn't. I know that as a reporter, me
Speaker 7: as as not a journalist, sort of was tickled by
Speaker 7: the whole thing.
Speaker 8: Did you hear?
Speaker 7: I said me is not a yeah? I like, yeah,
Speaker 7: quit the whole But that's not a surprise to you.
Speaker 8: Clear the FED needs to commute clear influence communication.
Speaker 9: All right.
Speaker 1: So a couple of points there is that you've got
Speaker 1: CNBC Joe kind of pointing at the issue that they
Speaker 1: may have to back drag the Bank of America backtracking
Speaker 1: three rate hikes. This analyst coming in at two. If
Speaker 1: you look at the oil situation right now, and you
Speaker 1: can go back here right there in February, this essentially
Speaker 1: is when we were around sixty four bucks a barrel,
Speaker 1: which is somewhat the market median, and right now, of
Speaker 1: course that has retraced down to seventy eight. But of
Speaker 1: course we've seen this kind of volatility that has floated
Speaker 1: through in and around what's happening in Iran. So if
Speaker 1: this doesn't correct itself, then yes, you've got more pressure
Speaker 1: on the FED for the issue of inflation. And if
Speaker 1: you look at the poly market, let me go to
Speaker 1: this right here. This is weird because polymarket is actually
Speaker 1: showing a declining trend here on a potential FED rate hike,
Speaker 1: but yet at the same time, you've got the market
Speaker 1: saying that we might get a FED rate hike. So
Speaker 1: that's the kind of conflict that is happening because of
Speaker 1: the Fed not providing forward guidance at least on some
Speaker 1: sort of indication of how this market may move. Let's
Speaker 1: go over to the S and P five hundred. This,
Speaker 1: of course, is recorded its largest bullish bet ever in history,
Speaker 1: with more than four million call options traded on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: This also came as the index rally to an all
Speaker 1: time high at seventy seven, so one hundreds. So that
Speaker 1: in itself, could we make the eight thousand mark is
Speaker 1: the real question, and I think a lot of people
Speaker 1: are kind of pointing to that. My next clip kind
Speaker 1: of goes to that very question, is eight thousand, The
Speaker 1: next stop?
Speaker 8: Take a look, is the next stop?
Speaker 6: Eight thousand? Ed Yard Denny yesterday on closing Bill with
Speaker 6: Me eighty two fifty, he said that might look too conservative.
Speaker 4: I'm sitting here saying to myself, Okay, what can possibly
Speaker 4: go wrong?
Speaker 6: Where does that begin to reverse itself? What if we're
Speaker 6: though entering a market where you need to start thinking
Speaker 6: about what else can go right? If you're getting broadening
Speaker 6: earnings growth like Waldron's talking about, and others are obviously
Speaker 6: focused on to why stocks can can continue to go
Speaker 6: up from here. Maybe that's the more apropos question today.
Speaker 6: It's no longer fomo, it's femo. It's the earnings momentum.
Speaker 6: Don't just tell me about what tech is doing. I
Speaker 6: get that the numbers are enormous in terms of the
Speaker 6: earnings growth, but if you're talking about twelve percent for
Speaker 6: other areas of the market, that's pretty darn good too.
Speaker 1: A couple of points there that you want to kind
Speaker 1: of look at here is we continue to see inflation
Speaker 1: moving into the market, which is now starting to showcase
Speaker 1: on earnings. Earnings of course continuing to outsize, and that
Speaker 1: of course means we see these ridiculous numbers on the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred, and now you add the
Speaker 1: potential rebates that are coming back in from all these terriffs,
Speaker 1: which could be literal windfalls for some of these Fortune
Speaker 1: five hundred companies, and they're not necessarily passing that on
Speaker 1: that's essentially going into I guess into profits. So we
Speaker 1: could see this continuation above eight thousand. The question is
Speaker 1: is when would a pullback actually occur?
Speaker 9: Now?
Speaker 1: Tom Lee has talked about this before, is we could
Speaker 1: see a little bit of a pullback. Here's Jamie Diamond
Speaker 1: talking about that very same thing. Take a look market.
Speaker 10: Leverage, prime, broken leverage, headstrong leverage, eachf's leverage, treasure, arbitrage leverage.
Speaker 10: I'm double counting some of that. So leverage is pretty high.
Speaker 10: When you have that, you do have a higher chance
Speaker 10: of somebody will disrupt the market in a quick way
Speaker 10: and people get rattled over, and so that is a
Speaker 10: little high batu. A leverage of margin debt is the
Speaker 10: highest of event. There's a lot of margin debt you
Speaker 10: don't see because it's not cold margin debt. It's called
Speaker 10: other things. So it's that kind of leverage, some hidden,
Speaker 10: some public. We see a lot of it, and it's high.
Speaker 10: You know, it's not I'm not gonna say it's systemic high.
Speaker 10: It's going to cause a disaster, but it's high.
Speaker 1: It is high. And maybe there is a little bit
Speaker 1: of an indicator if you saw this situation with Leopold
Speaker 1: on situational awareness. Of course, deleveraging to a level that
Speaker 1: of course put them in a position. And now this
Speaker 1: is somewhat being corrected right now by guess who Ken
Speaker 1: Griffin and Citadel, So I don't know, very interesting times
Speaker 1: right here, guys. Could this be what Diamond is talking about?
Speaker 1: And is it the precursor to maybe even what Tom
Speaker 1: Lee had indicated in the past where we could see
Speaker 1: maybe a ten to even greater pullback off of the
Speaker 1: essen five hundred. Either this is in a position right
Speaker 1: now that we are ready for the next shoot to drop,
Speaker 1: or we're going to see something that is maybe a
Speaker 1: forever up kind of market, if in fact the AI
Speaker 1: trade can continue to hold. But to counter that, here's
Speaker 1: a clip on why the Leopold blow up was so
Speaker 1: much of a warning.
Speaker 8: Take a look.
Speaker 11: He of course had a very large following, So not
Speaker 11: only was his leverage on his forty five billion dollars,
Speaker 11: let's say it was levered one hundred and fifty billion,
Speaker 11: but there was a lot of money piggybacking on his trade.
Speaker 11: So I think in some ways, you know, the unwind
Speaker 11: and even last week was due to a lot of
Speaker 11: funds being aware that he might have been in trouble.
Speaker 9: This is probably the single weird way, greatest, most catastrophic
Speaker 9: hedge fund blow up of our careers.
Speaker 6: A former Open AI employee, also an FTX employee.
Speaker 9: I might add this guy built a forty five billion
Speaker 9: dollar as a manager company in eighteen months as a
Speaker 9: twenty four year old. Think about it. That's like a
Speaker 9: top ten headspoot in the world. People have worked thirty
Speaker 9: years on that. And I kept saying, well, what could
Speaker 9: go wrong?
Speaker 1: Yeah, what could go wrong? Well, that we know now,
Speaker 1: and deleveraging is really what makes bottoms. This is Tom
Speaker 1: Lee talking about that, because do you think we are
Speaker 1: finally at that point? Is this just one of the
Speaker 1: indicators that could push us into a bottom. Listen to
Speaker 1: what Tom said.
Speaker 11: That's exactly what makes a bottom is. You know, you
Speaker 11: deleverage people and then you reset expectations. Crypto has so
Speaker 11: many catalysts. Since the end of June, Ethereum has outperformed
Speaker 11: memory stocks by seventy two percentage points. That's pretty huge.
Speaker 11: And now the Clarity Act, as they say in the
Speaker 11: one yard line, that's a bigger market than anything that's
Speaker 11: existed in crypto before. Robinhood wants to tokenize everything. And
Speaker 11: by the way, they could have built on any blockchain.
Speaker 11: They built robin Hood chain on Ethereum. More than a
Speaker 11: billion dollar of volume daily. Robinhood might make a billion
Speaker 11: a year from this chain, all.
Speaker 1: Right, so you can see the upside. Is there the
Speaker 1: de leveraging is starting to occur. Is there a rotation
Speaker 1: of capital incoming? Usually what indicates a little bit of
Speaker 1: a shift in the market is when you see degen activities.
Speaker 1: Remember that's kind of on the last leg of what
Speaker 1: happens in these markets. We saw that in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 1: and maybe we're seeing that right now at least on
Speaker 1: this bear market, and that is with Robinhood listing cash Cat.
Speaker 1: This of course was a meme that's been out there.
Speaker 1: If you look at the chart over on deck screener,
Speaker 1: you can see this is the movement right now that
Speaker 1: cash Cat is having after the listing. I anticipate this
Speaker 1: could just be a short term pop and you can
Speaker 1: kind of see a lot of potential here for just that.
Speaker 1: Not saying you guys should go in this at all.
Speaker 1: In fact, this is probably a bad move. But the
Speaker 1: point is is this is the kind of Degen type
Speaker 1: tokens that starts to make their way in to mainstream
Speaker 1: and Robinhood courses kind of that gateway. Other things that
Speaker 1: are happening as institutional investors now are betting against the
Speaker 1: Japanese yend and this is moving at a very fast rate.
Speaker 1: It's their second largest on record as of July twenty eighth,
Speaker 1: So this is just shy of twenty four all coming
Speaker 1: from THEFCFTC data. So let's look at this, guys. This
Speaker 1: is the thing I'm getting at right here. This is
Speaker 1: the kind of recoil that is happening right now with
Speaker 1: the end. And remember this has been a narrative that
Speaker 1: kind of started with that little note from Bessent. And
Speaker 1: now of course we've seen Japan in a position where
Speaker 1: they're trying to reroute their entire ecosystem of digital assets
Speaker 1: and trying to run to the finish line very quickly
Speaker 1: with a lot of advanced regulation, tax loopholes, etc. That
Speaker 1: has started to play. I just wonder I was starting
Speaker 1: to see a lot more opportunity brewing in Japan pushing
Speaker 1: into what's happening with digital assets. Now here's John or
Speaker 1: Andre Jig who talk about what Bessent was actually trying
Speaker 1: to do.
Speaker 5: But what that note could end up being is the
Speaker 5: perfect psychological weapon to discourage traders from betting against the yen,
Speaker 5: which is also why the yen is actually getting stronger
Speaker 5: right now because Scott Besson is making the world believe
Speaker 5: the US government's promise to buy yen is real and
Speaker 5: if he happens to be successful, he might never have
Speaker 5: to spend that much money. He's using the market's psychology
Speaker 5: against itself and all that does. What buying the yen
Speaker 5: or the illusion of it strengthens it and has measured
Speaker 5: in dollars, it makes dollars go down, which seems like
Speaker 5: that's exactly been the plan that Donald Trump has wanted
Speaker 5: for a really long time now, because think about Kevin
Speaker 5: Warsh's position, but his entire reputation is this inflation hawk
Speaker 5: right right, but in a real crisis with layoffs and
Speaker 5: a lot of fear, that's when printing trillions of dollars
Speaker 5: is not a betrayal of his principles, right.
Speaker 1: All right, So you can see there are a lot
Speaker 1: of chess pieces in motion right now. Another chess piece
Speaker 1: that plays into all of this macro is what's happening
Speaker 1: right now with Iran. If you got a deal between
Speaker 1: Iran and Oman declaring that the Strait is a transit corridor,
Speaker 1: it's expected to be announced on today. We think so
Speaker 1: if we see a little bit of movement there, what
Speaker 1: does that look like in the coming months, and what
Speaker 1: does that look like for energy prices, not only in
Speaker 1: the US, but you know, especially in China and in Europe,
Speaker 1: because those are two of the major markets that are
Speaker 1: affected by this. Now Mark Cudmore talks about this because
Speaker 1: it starts to position a couple of assets in a
Speaker 1: different way. Take a look.
Speaker 4: People are kind of pretty cynical about any kind of deal,
Speaker 4: given all the number the number of promises we've had before.
Speaker 4: I would say Gold's probably been the biggest topic of
Speaker 4: debate in my team the last twenty four hours. We
Speaker 4: had this sudden four percent surge yesterday, which just seemed
Speaker 4: completely out of line with almost everything else that was
Speaker 4: kind of happening. It's extraordinary interesting. I think that this
Speaker 4: move fundamentally makes sense. I was somebody to turn bearish
Speaker 4: gold at the start of the war. I have been
Speaker 4: burished now until this flow. I now see this as
Speaker 4: a valid move higher and maybe the start of the
Speaker 4: bull trend reasserting and ultimately longer term. Gold is just
Speaker 4: traded off dollar and real yields, and if both of
Speaker 4: them are going to be lowered, gold will be higher,
Speaker 4: all right.
Speaker 1: If you look at the gold chart, this is what
Speaker 1: he's talking about. Is this wik right here coming off
Speaker 1: of four thousand dollars gold per troy ounce now hovering
Speaker 1: at a forty two hundred So a nice move on
Speaker 1: the day. And the question is if this does start
Speaker 1: to put more pressure on other assets, do we see
Speaker 1: more liquidity started to find its way into gold, because
Speaker 1: remember there's a lot of people that are sitting on
Speaker 1: the sidelines trying to figure out what route to take,
Speaker 1: especially if we do see a rotation coming out of
Speaker 1: the Ai trade. Now Chinese investors are now rotating back
Speaker 1: into gold. You've got China's gold black ets recording fourteen
Speaker 1: consecutive daily inflow. This of course is ending on Monday.
Speaker 1: It was the longest street since March, and you can
Speaker 1: kind of see the market right there. China's gold ets
Speaker 1: fourteen days. Man, that's crazy. And then to see the
Speaker 1: kind of movement that we saw just yesterday. So is
Speaker 1: this maybe gold's bottom around four thousand dollars an ounce?
Speaker 1: And are we in a position right now where maybe
Speaker 1: Peter Ship's going to be very happy about this? So
Speaker 1: let's roll this all into one thing and that is
Speaker 1: course is going to really come down to bear on clarity.
Speaker 9: Now.
Speaker 1: Clarity is the real issue for digital assets for the
Speaker 1: most part. I think there's some assets out there that
Speaker 1: will continue to do and I think a lot of
Speaker 1: companies have strategies already in play around clarity. We'll talk
Speaker 1: about that soon, but I want to play this clip
Speaker 1: talking about clarity. If it's going to happen. You don't
Speaker 1: think Clarity Act will happen.
Speaker 8: You think this year is off the table.
Speaker 10: Really.
Speaker 11: I mean it's we're already in August right now, and
Speaker 11: you like sixty days once you it's going to I mean,
Speaker 11: at some point it's going to happen.
Speaker 8: But it's not going to happen, you know, this year.
Speaker 8: That's at least what our experts are saying.
Speaker 1: All right, well, the US puts a thwart on clarity
Speaker 1: at least right now, we have one more day twenty
Speaker 1: four hours essentially before the August recess occurs, and that's
Speaker 1: if they don't hold over on the weekend. Then of
Speaker 1: course you go across to Russia and they have signed
Speaker 1: their own Clarity Act into correlation with what's happening right
Speaker 1: now in the US, and that is the US is
Speaker 1: getting left behind. So now crypto is regulated within Russia,
Speaker 1: Hong Kong, most of the Pacific RIM, and we're also
Speaker 1: looking at now the EU. Where else can we go
Speaker 1: besides South America? Maybe in a handful of those countries
Speaker 1: are already in that position. The US could be the
Speaker 1: last to the game on one of the most important
Speaker 1: asset classes maybe in the history of finance. Bad times
Speaker 1: ahead here you go. This, of course, is thirteen governments
Speaker 1: now holding a combined twenty six point eight billion in bitcoin.
Speaker 1: This is coming in on bitwise. US leads, but yet
Speaker 1: we don't lead in clarity. So very very unusual things
Speaker 1: going on in DC right now, the politics that are
Speaker 1: happening in DC, and that will force the economic condition,
Speaker 1: I think right now into the FED, because the FED
Speaker 1: is going to be in a position where they have
Speaker 1: to make a decision very soon on a rate cut
Speaker 1: or a rate hike. And I think this is now
Speaker 1: the drawdown time that most of the market has been anticipating,
Speaker 1: and the FED may lead the way on a rate hike.
Speaker 1: So get ready, guys. We'll cover more soon. If you
Speaker 1: like this video, like and subscribe, drop a comment down below,
Speaker 1: and also join our free private member group. The link
Speaker 1: is in the description