WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:02.439 Rate hikes in coming or not today. We'll break it 2 00:00:02.439 --> 00:00:04.200 down for you because there is a lot starting to 3 00:00:04.320 --> 00:00:07.839 move in terms of where the FED is going to 4 00:00:07.839 --> 00:00:09.839 impose rate hikes. Let's just get into it. I do 5 00:00:09.880 --> 00:00:11.880 want to thank our sponsor, and that's I Trust Capital. 6 00:00:12.240 --> 00:00:13.800 For you guys to go out there and start your 7 00:00:13.800 --> 00:00:16.640 own cryptoira. You can do that with I Trust Capital. 8 00:00:17.079 --> 00:00:20.480 And now did you know this company has seventeen billion 9 00:00:20.559 --> 00:00:24.440 in transactions and over three hundred thousand accounts. This is 10 00:00:24.559 --> 00:00:29.160 one of the cornerstones of getting a cryptoira underway. All 11 00:00:29.160 --> 00:00:31.440 you have to do to get one started is use 12 00:00:31.440 --> 00:00:33.439 our link down down below. It's going to give you 13 00:00:33.479 --> 00:00:35.960 a one hundred dollars funding reward, so that way it 14 00:00:36.000 --> 00:00:38.799 gets you going. And then once you're in there, guys, 15 00:00:38.840 --> 00:00:41.280 it's very easy. You can roll over an IRA. You 16 00:00:41.280 --> 00:00:44.320 can also start one from fresh transfer. A lot of 17 00:00:44.359 --> 00:00:47.159 options here. Reach out to the I Trust team and 18 00:00:47.439 --> 00:00:48.920 let them know we sent you. Let's go over and 19 00:00:48.960 --> 00:00:52.799 I want to lead off with President Trump's economy speech 20 00:00:53.439 --> 00:00:55.560 in Las Vegas. This was something to listen to. Take 21 00:00:55.560 --> 00:00:55.960 a look. 22 00:00:56.679 --> 00:01:04.719 Dating trip alone American the stock market all time highs, 23 00:01:04.920 --> 00:01:08.359 the highest stock markets in history. 24 00:01:08.439 --> 00:01:11.799 Yesterday went up almost a thousand points. Right. The tariffs 25 00:01:11.799 --> 00:01:14.760 have made us rich. Remember I used to say that 26 00:01:14.920 --> 00:01:18.920 tariffs are my favorite word. Their pressed was killing me, 27 00:01:19.480 --> 00:01:21.879 so I moved it to my fifth favorite word. And 28 00:01:21.959 --> 00:01:25.200 now I say it's number five, and I'm in good shape. 29 00:01:25.200 --> 00:01:27.760 But it has it's made as rich, it's made as rich. 30 00:01:27.879 --> 00:01:31.280 All these companies are moving in and building their plants. 31 00:01:31.480 --> 00:01:36.640 Manufacturing is exploding at the fastest pace in many years. 32 00:01:36.640 --> 00:01:39.920 Nobody thought this would ever happen again. Last month, inflation 33 00:01:40.120 --> 00:01:43.200 dropped at the fastest rate it's dropped in many years. 34 00:01:43.680 --> 00:01:48.599 More Americans are working in the United States right now 35 00:01:49.000 --> 00:01:51.959 than at any point in the history of our country. 36 00:01:52.519 --> 00:01:53.040 Speak of it. 37 00:01:53.959 --> 00:01:57.400 You don't hear that Donald's Trump polls on the economy 38 00:01:57.400 --> 00:02:00.280 aren't good. The economy is the greatest economy we've ever 39 00:02:00.359 --> 00:02:03.640 had by far. That man right there, miss the wall, 40 00:02:03.719 --> 00:02:04.480 please stand up. 41 00:02:04.480 --> 00:02:05.000 Look at him. 42 00:02:05.079 --> 00:02:07.359 He's a rich guy. And they checked him out. They 43 00:02:07.400 --> 00:02:08.800 said he's a very rich man. 44 00:02:08.879 --> 00:02:09.439 He has to be. 45 00:02:09.479 --> 00:02:12.199 He goes to so many rallies, the great Phil Ruffin. 46 00:02:12.599 --> 00:02:14.879 He made a fortune here. He just makes money out 47 00:02:14.919 --> 00:02:18.039 of these a money machine. They loaded, They're loaded. They 48 00:02:18.080 --> 00:02:22.000 owned this hotel, the sleepy Joe Biden, and the very corrupt, 49 00:02:22.080 --> 00:02:24.840 and it was the most corrupt administration. 50 00:02:25.479 --> 00:02:25.800 All right. 51 00:02:25.879 --> 00:02:28.520 So there you have it, guys. Obviously, the point behind 52 00:02:28.560 --> 00:02:30.719 this is a lot of the claims that Trump is 53 00:02:30.759 --> 00:02:33.919 making are just not necessarily happening. What you have right 54 00:02:33.960 --> 00:02:36.280 now is a split market, and the split market is 55 00:02:36.360 --> 00:02:39.840 mostly rewarding a lot of billionaires and a lot of 56 00:02:39.960 --> 00:02:43.120 major corporations that of course have benefited from these teriffs 57 00:02:43.159 --> 00:02:46.719 now getting big paychecks back on these tariff refunds. And 58 00:02:46.800 --> 00:02:50.719 I think also the job consistency has started to stabilize 59 00:02:50.719 --> 00:02:53.960 in a sense that it may not be increasing the 60 00:02:53.960 --> 00:02:56.159 way that we thought it was, so that in itself 61 00:02:56.240 --> 00:02:59.039 is going to continue to put more pressure on the FED. 62 00:02:59.280 --> 00:03:02.039 And as we look at the FED chair, he is 63 00:03:02.080 --> 00:03:06.599 reportedly open to a September rate hike if inflation continues 64 00:03:06.599 --> 00:03:09.400 to run hot. And this is coming in from three 65 00:03:09.639 --> 00:03:12.719 FOMC members, And this is something we already saw in 66 00:03:12.759 --> 00:03:16.319 the previous month when we looked at the last closer 67 00:03:16.400 --> 00:03:19.639 vote than I thought in terms of dissension among the 68 00:03:19.639 --> 00:03:23.439 FED chairs in the last FOMC meetings. So likelihood here 69 00:03:23.520 --> 00:03:27.159 is could he deviate away from Trump's plan. That is 70 00:03:27.199 --> 00:03:30.759 the real question. I don't know that he will, but 71 00:03:31.439 --> 00:03:34.719 there may be some situations here that force him into 72 00:03:34.759 --> 00:03:38.680 a really hard position. Bank of America CEO Brian Monahan. 73 00:03:38.840 --> 00:03:41.759 He says he reiterated that the banks forecast is three 74 00:03:41.800 --> 00:03:45.400 FED rate hikes in September, October, December. Some people are 75 00:03:45.400 --> 00:03:48.680 pointing at two FED rate hikes. This is where I 76 00:03:48.719 --> 00:03:53.240 get on the fence, because the current economic condition does 77 00:03:53.360 --> 00:03:56.719 warrant it. The problem is is that I think what's 78 00:03:56.800 --> 00:04:00.280 going on between Warsh and Trump, whether this is going 79 00:04:00.319 --> 00:04:04.919 to be a pause and that's a win, or if 80 00:04:04.919 --> 00:04:07.840 there may end up being a rake cut. This is 81 00:04:07.879 --> 00:04:11.080 one of those situations that with this particular FED, because 82 00:04:11.080 --> 00:04:14.719 you're getting no forward guidance, is starting to show a 83 00:04:14.719 --> 00:04:16.920 little bit of inconsistency here. And one of the things 84 00:04:16.959 --> 00:04:18.560 that will trigger this, of course, is going to be 85 00:04:18.639 --> 00:04:21.480 energy prices. Here you have Trump saying all prices are 86 00:04:21.480 --> 00:04:24.439 going down, but we may have to send it up again. 87 00:04:24.519 --> 00:04:26.480 So what does that mean? Does he know something? Is 88 00:04:26.480 --> 00:04:29.120 he's starting to give us some insights that there is 89 00:04:29.279 --> 00:04:32.680 more trouble brewing in the Middle East that would cause 90 00:04:33.240 --> 00:04:36.560 obviously West Texas crew and more energy sources to continue 91 00:04:36.560 --> 00:04:39.000 to spike. Remember, this has been hovering around seventy five 92 00:04:39.000 --> 00:04:42.439 to eighty bucks a barrel, which is somewhat tolerable. Once 93 00:04:42.480 --> 00:04:45.439 you get over eighty to ninety bucks a barrel, it 94 00:04:45.439 --> 00:04:48.480 gets a little bit outside of the range of most Americans. 95 00:04:48.639 --> 00:04:50.839 One hundred bucks of barrel, now you have a problem. 96 00:04:50.839 --> 00:04:53.800 And of course that's when the FED starts to feel 97 00:04:53.800 --> 00:04:56.720 the pinch. And if you look at this right here, 98 00:04:57.160 --> 00:05:00.399 Trump has repeatedly spoken with Warsh over the phone, and 99 00:05:00.480 --> 00:05:02.839 I think the pressure is going to continue to come 100 00:05:03.519 --> 00:05:07.800 on Wsh to hold rates at least and possibly be 101 00:05:07.839 --> 00:05:10.839 in a position where he starts to maybe look at 102 00:05:10.839 --> 00:05:13.199 a rate cut. I don't think that's going to happen, though. 103 00:05:13.199 --> 00:05:15.680 I think he's going to at very best hold rates. 104 00:05:16.439 --> 00:05:20.000 If we do get into a nastier position right now economically, 105 00:05:20.199 --> 00:05:23.360 if Trump is already pivoting on oil prices, could he 106 00:05:23.480 --> 00:05:27.000 pivot in reference to Warsh trying to get him into 107 00:05:27.040 --> 00:05:30.879 a rate hike understanding the presence of the economy being 108 00:05:31.319 --> 00:05:34.959 a huge force driving what I think will be a 109 00:05:35.120 --> 00:05:38.360 big major pullback on the overall market. I think these 110 00:05:38.399 --> 00:05:40.959 are the things that right now are on Morsh's mind, 111 00:05:40.959 --> 00:05:42.839 and maybe that's why we're starting to see a lot 112 00:05:42.839 --> 00:05:47.079 of analysts pointing to rate hikes later this year. Let 113 00:05:47.079 --> 00:05:48.720 me know what you guys think, though, Do you think 114 00:05:48.759 --> 00:05:50.600 we'll get a rate hike? If not, just put rate 115 00:05:50.680 --> 00:05:52.480 hike or no rate hike down in the comments. I'm 116 00:05:52.560 --> 00:05:54.920 kind of curious because we're getting a lot of mixed 117 00:05:55.879 --> 00:05:58.519 a lot of mixed signals coming out of both sides 118 00:05:58.600 --> 00:06:00.920 on whether or not this is going to happen. One 119 00:06:00.920 --> 00:06:02.639 other thing you have to look at is, of course 120 00:06:03.279 --> 00:06:06.839 you got the Secretary Treasurer Scott Bessett kind of hitting 121 00:06:06.839 --> 00:06:11.560 on Wall Street Journals Nick Timmerosen. Basically, it's point too 122 00:06:12.199 --> 00:06:13.959 right now we have nothing coming out of the FED, 123 00:06:13.959 --> 00:06:16.839 and when I say we meeting the media has nothing 124 00:06:16.879 --> 00:06:19.079 really coming out in terms of forward guidance. So Wall 125 00:06:19.079 --> 00:06:20.959 Street journal is out there trying to figure out what 126 00:06:21.120 --> 00:06:24.040 is happening. Does anybody know anything? Is there any kind 127 00:06:24.079 --> 00:06:27.879 of potential opportunity on the FED back room side, much 128 00:06:27.959 --> 00:06:31.959 like backchannels work in a lot of policymaking, I think 129 00:06:32.040 --> 00:06:34.639 now is getting into the point of where news is 130 00:06:34.680 --> 00:06:36.439 going to have to come from, since we're not seeing 131 00:06:36.480 --> 00:06:39.759 that coming in from the FED themselves, like what it 132 00:06:39.839 --> 00:06:42.040 used to be with CHERA. Powell, where he was fairly 133 00:06:42.079 --> 00:06:45.879 open and you could somewhat navigate this. This, I think 134 00:06:46.000 --> 00:06:49.639 is a very interesting time ahead right now. I want 135 00:06:49.639 --> 00:06:52.600 to play a clip here because this where people actually 136 00:06:52.680 --> 00:06:54.720 start thinking that we're going to get two fed rake hikes. 137 00:06:54.759 --> 00:06:57.959 Take a look, Thank America thinks three rate hikes. I 138 00:06:58.000 --> 00:07:00.160 don't think it's going to I think they're wrong. Think 139 00:07:00.160 --> 00:07:01.600 they're going to have to say, oops. 140 00:07:02.199 --> 00:07:04.399 I don't think we get a three. But I came 141 00:07:04.439 --> 00:07:08.079 from a possibility of two this time or this year 142 00:07:08.160 --> 00:07:11.560 or early next year, because I think the inflation pressures 143 00:07:11.680 --> 00:07:14.759 are not going to subside quickly enough, and I think 144 00:07:14.800 --> 00:07:17.160 the kid and this year, I want to hold onto 145 00:07:17.279 --> 00:07:20.560 their credibility, assuming that that oil does not come back 146 00:07:20.600 --> 00:07:23.360 down very quickly, and even if it does, is inflation 147 00:07:23.360 --> 00:07:25.600 in the pipeline. And finally you got the fact that 148 00:07:25.680 --> 00:07:27.600 you know, the chair has been very clear that five 149 00:07:27.680 --> 00:07:30.399 years of missing the target is really unacceptable. 150 00:07:30.399 --> 00:07:34.519 Did you see the whole netimber. You probably didn't like that. 151 00:07:34.639 --> 00:07:35.279 I didn't love it. 152 00:07:35.560 --> 00:07:37.839 Well, I didn't. I know that as a reporter, me 153 00:07:37.959 --> 00:07:41.600 as as not a journalist, sort of was tickled by 154 00:07:41.639 --> 00:07:42.199 the whole thing. 155 00:07:42.240 --> 00:07:42.600 Did you hear? 156 00:07:42.600 --> 00:07:45.759 I said me is not a yeah? I like, yeah, 157 00:07:45.839 --> 00:07:47.839 quit the whole But that's not a surprise to you. 158 00:07:47.959 --> 00:07:51.279 Clear the FED needs to commute clear influence communication. 159 00:07:51.879 --> 00:07:52.199 All right. 160 00:07:52.279 --> 00:07:55.439 So a couple of points there is that you've got 161 00:07:55.480 --> 00:07:59.000 CNBC Joe kind of pointing at the issue that they 162 00:07:59.040 --> 00:08:01.279 may have to back drag the Bank of America backtracking 163 00:08:01.319 --> 00:08:04.160 three rate hikes. This analyst coming in at two. If 164 00:08:04.160 --> 00:08:06.839 you look at the oil situation right now, and you 165 00:08:06.839 --> 00:08:10.360 can go back here right there in February, this essentially 166 00:08:10.399 --> 00:08:12.600 is when we were around sixty four bucks a barrel, 167 00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:16.680 which is somewhat the market median, and right now, of 168 00:08:16.680 --> 00:08:19.160 course that has retraced down to seventy eight. But of 169 00:08:19.160 --> 00:08:21.639 course we've seen this kind of volatility that has floated 170 00:08:21.680 --> 00:08:24.519 through in and around what's happening in Iran. So if 171 00:08:24.519 --> 00:08:28.240 this doesn't correct itself, then yes, you've got more pressure 172 00:08:28.279 --> 00:08:32.840 on the FED for the issue of inflation. And if 173 00:08:32.879 --> 00:08:34.399 you look at the poly market, let me go to 174 00:08:34.480 --> 00:08:37.639 this right here. This is weird because polymarket is actually 175 00:08:37.720 --> 00:08:40.919 showing a declining trend here on a potential FED rate hike, 176 00:08:40.960 --> 00:08:43.039 but yet at the same time, you've got the market 177 00:08:43.559 --> 00:08:45.639 saying that we might get a FED rate hike. So 178 00:08:46.240 --> 00:08:49.919 that's the kind of conflict that is happening because of 179 00:08:49.960 --> 00:08:53.240 the Fed not providing forward guidance at least on some 180 00:08:53.279 --> 00:08:56.039 sort of indication of how this market may move. Let's 181 00:08:56.080 --> 00:08:57.919 go over to the S and P five hundred. This, 182 00:08:58.000 --> 00:09:01.919 of course, is recorded its largest bullish bet ever in history, 183 00:09:01.919 --> 00:09:04.600 with more than four million call options traded on Tuesday. 184 00:09:05.200 --> 00:09:07.320 This also came as the index rally to an all 185 00:09:07.320 --> 00:09:09.960 time high at seventy seven, so one hundreds. So that 186 00:09:10.080 --> 00:09:12.360 in itself, could we make the eight thousand mark is 187 00:09:12.399 --> 00:09:14.159 the real question, and I think a lot of people 188 00:09:14.159 --> 00:09:16.879 are kind of pointing to that. My next clip kind 189 00:09:16.879 --> 00:09:19.759 of goes to that very question, is eight thousand, The 190 00:09:19.799 --> 00:09:20.240 next stop? 191 00:09:20.360 --> 00:09:22.320 Take a look, is the next stop? 192 00:09:22.320 --> 00:09:25.440 Eight thousand? Ed Yard Denny yesterday on closing Bill with 193 00:09:25.480 --> 00:09:28.759 Me eighty two fifty, he said that might look too conservative. 194 00:09:28.919 --> 00:09:31.720 I'm sitting here saying to myself, Okay, what can possibly 195 00:09:31.759 --> 00:09:32.279 go wrong? 196 00:09:32.639 --> 00:09:35.720 Where does that begin to reverse itself? What if we're 197 00:09:35.759 --> 00:09:38.159 though entering a market where you need to start thinking 198 00:09:38.159 --> 00:09:40.679 about what else can go right? If you're getting broadening 199 00:09:40.679 --> 00:09:43.600 earnings growth like Waldron's talking about, and others are obviously 200 00:09:43.960 --> 00:09:46.600 focused on to why stocks can can continue to go 201 00:09:47.039 --> 00:09:51.279 up from here. Maybe that's the more apropos question today. 202 00:09:51.559 --> 00:09:56.720 It's no longer fomo, it's femo. It's the earnings momentum. 203 00:09:57.039 --> 00:09:59.039 Don't just tell me about what tech is doing. I 204 00:09:59.080 --> 00:10:01.120 get that the numbers are enormous in terms of the 205 00:10:01.159 --> 00:10:04.039 earnings growth, but if you're talking about twelve percent for 206 00:10:04.159 --> 00:10:06.360 other areas of the market, that's pretty darn good too. 207 00:10:06.960 --> 00:10:08.639 A couple of points there that you want to kind 208 00:10:08.639 --> 00:10:11.879 of look at here is we continue to see inflation 209 00:10:12.000 --> 00:10:14.200 moving into the market, which is now starting to showcase 210 00:10:14.240 --> 00:10:18.440 on earnings. Earnings of course continuing to outsize, and that 211 00:10:18.480 --> 00:10:21.720 of course means we see these ridiculous numbers on the 212 00:10:21.799 --> 00:10:24.200 S and P five hundred, and now you add the 213 00:10:24.200 --> 00:10:27.399 potential rebates that are coming back in from all these terriffs, 214 00:10:27.440 --> 00:10:30.559 which could be literal windfalls for some of these Fortune 215 00:10:30.559 --> 00:10:33.519 five hundred companies, and they're not necessarily passing that on 216 00:10:33.679 --> 00:10:36.519 that's essentially going into I guess into profits. So we 217 00:10:36.519 --> 00:10:41.840 could see this continuation above eight thousand. The question is 218 00:10:41.919 --> 00:10:43.799 is when would a pullback actually occur? 219 00:10:43.879 --> 00:10:44.039 Now? 220 00:10:44.039 --> 00:10:46.799 Tom Lee has talked about this before, is we could 221 00:10:46.840 --> 00:10:50.240 see a little bit of a pullback. Here's Jamie Diamond 222 00:10:50.279 --> 00:10:53.399 talking about that very same thing. Take a look market. 223 00:10:53.159 --> 00:10:57.720 Leverage, prime, broken leverage, headstrong leverage, eachf's leverage, treasure, arbitrage leverage. 224 00:10:57.840 --> 00:11:01.000 I'm double counting some of that. So leverage is pretty high. 225 00:11:01.120 --> 00:11:03.399 When you have that, you do have a higher chance 226 00:11:03.440 --> 00:11:05.639 of somebody will disrupt the market in a quick way 227 00:11:05.679 --> 00:11:08.000 and people get rattled over, and so that is a 228 00:11:08.000 --> 00:11:11.000 little high batu. A leverage of margin debt is the 229 00:11:11.039 --> 00:11:13.320 highest of event. There's a lot of margin debt you 230 00:11:13.360 --> 00:11:15.279 don't see because it's not cold margin debt. It's called 231 00:11:15.320 --> 00:11:17.879 other things. So it's that kind of leverage, some hidden, 232 00:11:18.159 --> 00:11:20.919 some public. We see a lot of it, and it's high. 233 00:11:21.320 --> 00:11:23.519 You know, it's not I'm not gonna say it's systemic high. 234 00:11:23.519 --> 00:11:27.000 It's going to cause a disaster, but it's high. 235 00:11:27.320 --> 00:11:29.759 It is high. And maybe there is a little bit 236 00:11:29.759 --> 00:11:32.840 of an indicator if you saw this situation with Leopold 237 00:11:33.000 --> 00:11:37.759 on situational awareness. Of course, deleveraging to a level that 238 00:11:37.960 --> 00:11:40.440 of course put them in a position. And now this 239 00:11:40.519 --> 00:11:43.200 is somewhat being corrected right now by guess who Ken 240 00:11:43.240 --> 00:11:46.840 Griffin and Citadel, So I don't know, very interesting times 241 00:11:46.919 --> 00:11:50.039 right here, guys. Could this be what Diamond is talking about? 242 00:11:50.320 --> 00:11:52.840 And is it the precursor to maybe even what Tom 243 00:11:52.919 --> 00:11:56.600 Lee had indicated in the past where we could see 244 00:11:56.639 --> 00:11:59.559 maybe a ten to even greater pullback off of the 245 00:11:59.720 --> 00:12:03.279 essen five hundred. Either this is in a position right 246 00:12:03.279 --> 00:12:06.000 now that we are ready for the next shoot to drop, 247 00:12:06.720 --> 00:12:10.879 or we're going to see something that is maybe a 248 00:12:10.919 --> 00:12:14.080 forever up kind of market, if in fact the AI 249 00:12:14.200 --> 00:12:17.600 trade can continue to hold. But to counter that, here's 250 00:12:17.600 --> 00:12:20.840 a clip on why the Leopold blow up was so 251 00:12:20.960 --> 00:12:21.720 much of a warning. 252 00:12:21.759 --> 00:12:22.200 Take a look. 253 00:12:23.120 --> 00:12:25.600 He of course had a very large following, So not 254 00:12:25.679 --> 00:12:29.320 only was his leverage on his forty five billion dollars, 255 00:12:29.679 --> 00:12:32.000 let's say it was levered one hundred and fifty billion, 256 00:12:32.519 --> 00:12:34.919 but there was a lot of money piggybacking on his trade. 257 00:12:34.960 --> 00:12:39.320 So I think in some ways, you know, the unwind 258 00:12:39.440 --> 00:12:42.879 and even last week was due to a lot of 259 00:12:42.879 --> 00:12:45.159 funds being aware that he might have been in trouble. 260 00:12:45.279 --> 00:12:49.960 This is probably the single weird way, greatest, most catastrophic 261 00:12:50.600 --> 00:12:52.759 hedge fund blow up of our careers. 262 00:12:52.799 --> 00:12:56.639 A former Open AI employee, also an FTX employee. 263 00:12:56.639 --> 00:12:59.039 I might add this guy built a forty five billion 264 00:12:59.080 --> 00:13:01.600 dollar as a manager company in eighteen months as a 265 00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:03.519 twenty four year old. Think about it. That's like a 266 00:13:03.519 --> 00:13:05.840 top ten headspoot in the world. People have worked thirty 267 00:13:05.919 --> 00:13:08.240 years on that. And I kept saying, well, what could 268 00:13:08.279 --> 00:13:08.679 go wrong? 269 00:13:11.679 --> 00:13:14.320 Yeah, what could go wrong? Well, that we know now, 270 00:13:14.519 --> 00:13:17.840 and deleveraging is really what makes bottoms. This is Tom 271 00:13:17.919 --> 00:13:20.519 Lee talking about that, because do you think we are 272 00:13:20.559 --> 00:13:23.600 finally at that point? Is this just one of the 273 00:13:23.639 --> 00:13:26.960 indicators that could push us into a bottom. Listen to 274 00:13:27.000 --> 00:13:27.960 what Tom said. 275 00:13:28.360 --> 00:13:31.200 That's exactly what makes a bottom is. You know, you 276 00:13:31.320 --> 00:13:36.320 deleverage people and then you reset expectations. Crypto has so 277 00:13:36.360 --> 00:13:40.360 many catalysts. Since the end of June, Ethereum has outperformed 278 00:13:40.360 --> 00:13:43.919 memory stocks by seventy two percentage points. That's pretty huge. 279 00:13:44.159 --> 00:13:46.159 And now the Clarity Act, as they say in the 280 00:13:46.159 --> 00:13:49.799 one yard line, that's a bigger market than anything that's 281 00:13:49.840 --> 00:13:53.559 existed in crypto before. Robinhood wants to tokenize everything. And 282 00:13:54.000 --> 00:13:56.080 by the way, they could have built on any blockchain. 283 00:13:57.000 --> 00:13:59.440 They built robin Hood chain on Ethereum. More than a 284 00:13:59.480 --> 00:14:03.159 billion dollar of volume daily. Robinhood might make a billion 285 00:14:03.200 --> 00:14:06.120 a year from this chain, all. 286 00:14:06.080 --> 00:14:09.720 Right, so you can see the upside. Is there the 287 00:14:09.799 --> 00:14:13.120 de leveraging is starting to occur. Is there a rotation 288 00:14:13.440 --> 00:14:18.279 of capital incoming? Usually what indicates a little bit of 289 00:14:18.279 --> 00:14:22.000 a shift in the market is when you see degen activities. 290 00:14:22.200 --> 00:14:24.480 Remember that's kind of on the last leg of what 291 00:14:24.559 --> 00:14:27.039 happens in these markets. We saw that in twenty twenty one, 292 00:14:27.879 --> 00:14:31.159 and maybe we're seeing that right now at least on 293 00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:34.279 this bear market, and that is with Robinhood listing cash Cat. 294 00:14:34.879 --> 00:14:36.960 This of course was a meme that's been out there. 295 00:14:36.960 --> 00:14:38.840 If you look at the chart over on deck screener, 296 00:14:38.919 --> 00:14:41.600 you can see this is the movement right now that 297 00:14:41.759 --> 00:14:45.799 cash Cat is having after the listing. I anticipate this 298 00:14:45.840 --> 00:14:47.759 could just be a short term pop and you can 299 00:14:47.840 --> 00:14:51.519 kind of see a lot of potential here for just that. 300 00:14:51.679 --> 00:14:53.360 Not saying you guys should go in this at all. 301 00:14:53.399 --> 00:14:55.559 In fact, this is probably a bad move. But the 302 00:14:55.600 --> 00:14:58.559 point is is this is the kind of Degen type 303 00:14:58.559 --> 00:15:00.679 tokens that starts to make their way in to mainstream 304 00:15:00.720 --> 00:15:04.480 and Robinhood courses kind of that gateway. Other things that 305 00:15:04.519 --> 00:15:07.840 are happening as institutional investors now are betting against the 306 00:15:07.919 --> 00:15:11.720 Japanese yend and this is moving at a very fast rate. 307 00:15:12.200 --> 00:15:15.120 It's their second largest on record as of July twenty eighth, 308 00:15:15.200 --> 00:15:18.080 So this is just shy of twenty four all coming 309 00:15:18.159 --> 00:15:22.120 from THEFCFTC data. So let's look at this, guys. This 310 00:15:22.159 --> 00:15:24.000 is the thing I'm getting at right here. This is 311 00:15:24.039 --> 00:15:26.960 the kind of recoil that is happening right now with 312 00:15:27.080 --> 00:15:30.440 the end. And remember this has been a narrative that 313 00:15:30.639 --> 00:15:34.320 kind of started with that little note from Bessent. And 314 00:15:34.360 --> 00:15:37.720 now of course we've seen Japan in a position where 315 00:15:37.720 --> 00:15:42.320 they're trying to reroute their entire ecosystem of digital assets 316 00:15:42.600 --> 00:15:45.000 and trying to run to the finish line very quickly 317 00:15:45.159 --> 00:15:49.279 with a lot of advanced regulation, tax loopholes, etc. That 318 00:15:49.320 --> 00:15:51.360 has started to play. I just wonder I was starting 319 00:15:51.360 --> 00:15:54.559 to see a lot more opportunity brewing in Japan pushing 320 00:15:54.639 --> 00:15:58.600 into what's happening with digital assets. Now here's John or 321 00:15:58.679 --> 00:16:02.399 Andre Jig who talk about what Bessent was actually trying 322 00:16:02.399 --> 00:16:02.600 to do. 323 00:16:03.799 --> 00:16:07.360 But what that note could end up being is the 324 00:16:07.480 --> 00:16:13.440 perfect psychological weapon to discourage traders from betting against the yen, 325 00:16:14.240 --> 00:16:17.200 which is also why the yen is actually getting stronger 326 00:16:17.279 --> 00:16:21.399 right now because Scott Besson is making the world believe 327 00:16:21.960 --> 00:16:26.240 the US government's promise to buy yen is real and 328 00:16:26.399 --> 00:16:29.840 if he happens to be successful, he might never have 329 00:16:29.960 --> 00:16:33.440 to spend that much money. He's using the market's psychology 330 00:16:33.480 --> 00:16:37.799 against itself and all that does. What buying the yen 331 00:16:38.279 --> 00:16:41.360 or the illusion of it strengthens it and has measured 332 00:16:41.399 --> 00:16:45.440 in dollars, it makes dollars go down, which seems like 333 00:16:46.080 --> 00:16:49.399 that's exactly been the plan that Donald Trump has wanted 334 00:16:49.840 --> 00:16:53.559 for a really long time now, because think about Kevin 335 00:16:53.600 --> 00:16:58.960 Warsh's position, but his entire reputation is this inflation hawk 336 00:16:59.080 --> 00:17:03.559 right right, but in a real crisis with layoffs and 337 00:17:03.720 --> 00:17:07.240 a lot of fear, that's when printing trillions of dollars 338 00:17:07.279 --> 00:17:09.599 is not a betrayal of his principles, right. 339 00:17:11.119 --> 00:17:13.519 All right, So you can see there are a lot 340 00:17:13.559 --> 00:17:17.160 of chess pieces in motion right now. Another chess piece 341 00:17:17.200 --> 00:17:20.480 that plays into all of this macro is what's happening 342 00:17:20.559 --> 00:17:23.200 right now with Iran. If you got a deal between 343 00:17:23.240 --> 00:17:26.920 Iran and Oman declaring that the Strait is a transit corridor, 344 00:17:26.960 --> 00:17:30.640 it's expected to be announced on today. We think so 345 00:17:30.920 --> 00:17:33.720 if we see a little bit of movement there, what 346 00:17:33.759 --> 00:17:36.319 does that look like in the coming months, and what 347 00:17:36.359 --> 00:17:38.920 does that look like for energy prices, not only in 348 00:17:39.079 --> 00:17:42.640 the US, but you know, especially in China and in Europe, 349 00:17:42.680 --> 00:17:44.720 because those are two of the major markets that are 350 00:17:44.720 --> 00:17:49.000 affected by this. Now Mark Cudmore talks about this because 351 00:17:49.240 --> 00:17:52.640 it starts to position a couple of assets in a 352 00:17:52.680 --> 00:17:54.359 different way. Take a look. 353 00:17:55.559 --> 00:17:59.039 People are kind of pretty cynical about any kind of deal, 354 00:17:59.119 --> 00:18:01.599 given all the number the number of promises we've had before. 355 00:18:01.720 --> 00:18:04.559 I would say Gold's probably been the biggest topic of 356 00:18:04.559 --> 00:18:06.400 debate in my team the last twenty four hours. We 357 00:18:06.480 --> 00:18:09.759 had this sudden four percent surge yesterday, which just seemed 358 00:18:09.759 --> 00:18:12.200 completely out of line with almost everything else that was 359 00:18:12.279 --> 00:18:15.759 kind of happening. It's extraordinary interesting. I think that this 360 00:18:15.920 --> 00:18:19.000 move fundamentally makes sense. I was somebody to turn bearish 361 00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:20.880 gold at the start of the war. I have been 362 00:18:20.960 --> 00:18:23.640 burished now until this flow. I now see this as 363 00:18:23.640 --> 00:18:25.720 a valid move higher and maybe the start of the 364 00:18:25.720 --> 00:18:29.720 bull trend reasserting and ultimately longer term. Gold is just 365 00:18:29.880 --> 00:18:32.519 traded off dollar and real yields, and if both of 366 00:18:32.519 --> 00:18:34.160 them are going to be lowered, gold will be higher, 367 00:18:34.960 --> 00:18:35.279 all right. 368 00:18:35.319 --> 00:18:36.960 If you look at the gold chart, this is what 369 00:18:37.000 --> 00:18:39.319 he's talking about. Is this wik right here coming off 370 00:18:39.359 --> 00:18:43.680 of four thousand dollars gold per troy ounce now hovering 371 00:18:43.680 --> 00:18:46.079 at a forty two hundred So a nice move on 372 00:18:46.119 --> 00:18:49.799 the day. And the question is if this does start 373 00:18:49.839 --> 00:18:53.000 to put more pressure on other assets, do we see 374 00:18:53.000 --> 00:18:55.759 more liquidity started to find its way into gold, because 375 00:18:55.799 --> 00:18:57.559 remember there's a lot of people that are sitting on 376 00:18:57.559 --> 00:18:59.799 the sidelines trying to figure out what route to take, 377 00:19:00.079 --> 00:19:03.079 especially if we do see a rotation coming out of 378 00:19:03.119 --> 00:19:06.119 the Ai trade. Now Chinese investors are now rotating back 379 00:19:06.160 --> 00:19:09.880 into gold. You've got China's gold black ets recording fourteen 380 00:19:09.920 --> 00:19:13.640 consecutive daily inflow. This of course is ending on Monday. 381 00:19:13.640 --> 00:19:15.960 It was the longest street since March, and you can 382 00:19:16.039 --> 00:19:19.960 kind of see the market right there. China's gold ets 383 00:19:20.000 --> 00:19:23.240 fourteen days. Man, that's crazy. And then to see the 384 00:19:23.319 --> 00:19:26.599 kind of movement that we saw just yesterday. So is 385 00:19:26.640 --> 00:19:30.880 this maybe gold's bottom around four thousand dollars an ounce? 386 00:19:31.200 --> 00:19:33.480 And are we in a position right now where maybe 387 00:19:33.480 --> 00:19:35.799 Peter Ship's going to be very happy about this? So 388 00:19:35.880 --> 00:19:38.400 let's roll this all into one thing and that is 389 00:19:38.519 --> 00:19:42.279 course is going to really come down to bear on clarity. 390 00:19:42.480 --> 00:19:42.640 Now. 391 00:19:42.640 --> 00:19:46.079 Clarity is the real issue for digital assets for the 392 00:19:46.119 --> 00:19:48.559 most part. I think there's some assets out there that 393 00:19:48.559 --> 00:19:50.079 will continue to do and I think a lot of 394 00:19:50.079 --> 00:19:54.599 companies have strategies already in play around clarity. We'll talk 395 00:19:54.640 --> 00:19:57.400 about that soon, but I want to play this clip 396 00:19:57.480 --> 00:20:00.200 talking about clarity. If it's going to happen. You don't 397 00:20:00.240 --> 00:20:01.279 think Clarity Act will happen. 398 00:20:01.319 --> 00:20:03.119 You think this year is off the table. 399 00:20:03.240 --> 00:20:03.440 Really. 400 00:20:03.480 --> 00:20:05.160 I mean it's we're already in August right now, and 401 00:20:05.200 --> 00:20:07.920