1 00:00:02,439 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Friday. It is time 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:09,279 for total bases. Brian Leonard. I had the Mariners yesterday. 3 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,199 It did not go well. I'm punishing myself by wearing 4 00:00:13,199 --> 00:00:17,120 this hoodie or this sweatshirt Fairfield Stags. Of course arrival 5 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,280 of my college, the Siena College Saints. But I also 6 00:00:20,359 --> 00:00:23,879 just like the Sweatcher and they're not a real rival 7 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:25,559 because they're not going to challenge us at the top 8 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,160 of the league. So at any rate, we're here to 9 00:00:28,199 --> 00:00:32,520 talk some baseball, me and you today. We've got two games. 10 00:00:32,799 --> 00:00:35,079 Let's just get right into it. Let's go back to 11 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:39,280 that game Mariners Blue Jays. I had the Mariners yesterday, Brian, 12 00:00:39,399 --> 00:00:43,600 and they didn't really show up. Once again, the bats 13 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:46,439 weren't there, and I'll tip the cap. I didn't think 14 00:00:46,439 --> 00:00:48,640 Max Suers are how to do him. He pitched well, 15 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:51,119 and the Blue Jays are back in this series to too. 16 00:00:51,399 --> 00:00:53,679 We head to a game five tonight. So how's your 17 00:00:53,759 --> 00:00:56,600 day going? Then kick us off with Mariners Blue Jays. 18 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:01,479 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I'm in the same way I stuck in baseball. Yesterday. 19 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,439 I had small play on the Mariners. When it got 20 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,760 down to all the money came in on Toronto. You 21 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:08,799 can get Seattle at home at like one seventeen. I 22 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:12,599 couldn't pass that up, So I had the small one 23 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:15,560 and a half star whatever percentage on that. Well, my 24 00:01:15,599 --> 00:01:20,879 big play yesterday was Seattle's a score over one and 25 00:01:20,879 --> 00:01:24,799 a half runs in the first five, which, as I said, 26 00:01:27,519 --> 00:01:29,719 Sureser had gone twenty five innuing he's given up twenty 27 00:01:29,719 --> 00:01:31,879 five earned runs. I thought it was a desperate situation 28 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:35,280 to throw him out there. Hats off to Max Scherzer. 29 00:01:35,439 --> 00:01:38,040 He made me look like an idiot, and I feel 30 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,640 like an idiot is they scored one round in the 31 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:42,239 second inning and that was it. He shut him down 32 00:01:42,239 --> 00:01:47,359 the rest of the way. It happens. He's a professional pitcher, 33 00:01:47,519 --> 00:01:50,200 and these things happened. And I also was wrong. I go, well, 34 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:51,920 he's forty one years old. When they come out to 35 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:56,120 get him, he's you know, and he pulled his old self, 36 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,400 which you'd like to have. But still as a manager, 37 00:01:59,519 --> 00:02:03,079 you hate to get embarrassed like that. But uh, yeah, 38 00:02:03,239 --> 00:02:05,920 I was wrong. I was completely wrong. I apologize for 39 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:10,000 everybody who bought that five percent yesterday, and I'll try 40 00:02:10,039 --> 00:02:12,039 to get it back. I'd been so hot in baseball 41 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:16,080 I just assumed that that was that was gonna happen, 42 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:22,439 and it didn't happen. I was wrong. Yeah, Seattle's Seattle's 43 00:02:22,439 --> 00:02:25,680 bats just didn't show up again, Brian. 44 00:02:25,759 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 1: I'll I'm right, I'm right there with you. That game 45 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,919 did not go as I thought it would at all. 46 00:02:31,039 --> 00:02:33,560 I thought Luis Castillo would be I thought he would 47 00:02:33,599 --> 00:02:36,919 at least at minimum match sureser. I felt like he 48 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,840 came in just the far better option he had a 49 00:02:41,039 --> 00:02:43,080 he had been pitching great for a month or so, 50 00:02:43,479 --> 00:02:46,159 had some nice time off between starts. But I guess 51 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,479 I'll go back to the kind of point I've I've made, 52 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:53,360 you know, at different points in time during the playoffs. 53 00:02:53,599 --> 00:02:56,240 I did the the MGM show a couple of days ago, 54 00:02:56,319 --> 00:02:59,159 and they put a they quoted me from the show 55 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,439 and I said something to the respect of, you know, 56 00:03:02,599 --> 00:03:06,960 these series, like the series can flip on a moment's notice, right, 57 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:09,280 Like maybe not the other series we're going to talk about, 58 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,120 when you see that one team is out classing the other. 59 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,639 But even through the first two games, like to me, 60 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,159 there was never anything to suggest that, like these two 61 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,199 teams still weren't very evenly matched. Now, I didn't play 62 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,520 Game three. Yeah, yesterday I got the I got the 63 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,319 game wrong, But it was like my mindset was never, oh, like, 64 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:31,039 well Seattle's just going to come in and dominate. I 65 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,639 just liked how Game four set up better for them. 66 00:03:33,719 --> 00:03:36,439 So it's like that. I think is is because this 67 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:40,319 is a handicapping show and we're trying to also talk about, 68 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,199 you know, just our thought process and how we approach 69 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,439 these games in this series and almost any of these 70 00:03:46,439 --> 00:03:50,599 Playoffs series. I'm still it's almost like a reset every day, right, 71 00:03:50,599 --> 00:03:54,039 It's like a fresh slate. I'm still looking at the 72 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,479 game for what the game is, for, who the two 73 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,639 starting pitchers are, what the usage is from out of 74 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,039 the bull pen. I will I will say though, I 75 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:05,400 do think being up to oh kept me off the 76 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,280 Mariners game in Game three, which I'm kind of happy 77 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:12,039 about because they obviously lost Game three. I'll just throw 78 00:04:12,039 --> 00:04:15,639 it over to you, is is does your process vary 79 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:17,920 from that at all in the Playoffs, because like it's 80 00:04:17,959 --> 00:04:19,560 it's I think it's an interesting conversation. 81 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you on that. I went with 82 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,399 just the over in game three, and I my first 83 00:04:26,439 --> 00:04:28,639 thing I thought of with this this last game, I said, well, 84 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,240 seven and a half. I said, you got to play 85 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,560 the over. I wish I had one of my initial thought, 86 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,920 but yeah, you got to look at your sister. Like 87 00:04:37,959 --> 00:04:39,759 yesterday I talked about in the game, I said, this 88 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,879 is this is the Brewers one game where I think 89 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,480 they have a chance. And I used the Brewers as 90 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,120 a free play and it looked pretty good when it 91 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:52,680 was one to one. But the better team and the 92 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:56,439 healthier team came out, the healthier pitching staff came out 93 00:04:56,439 --> 00:04:59,959 and won that game. And but now that it's three 94 00:05:00,079 --> 00:05:01,920 and all, it's gonna be tough for the Brewers to 95 00:05:01,959 --> 00:05:05,720 go at this point. So yeah, it matters a lot 96 00:05:05,759 --> 00:05:08,879 of what happened in the last game, which kind of 97 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:12,560 sucks because we've tried to put ourself up as early 98 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:14,600 as possible. The show is that, you know, like I said, 99 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,560 six am out here in Pacific the Hockey Show, a 100 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:19,920 lot of times they'll want my player ahead and not 101 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:23,279 from the night before. I don't know what's happened, but 102 00:05:23,319 --> 00:05:24,959 they got to set up the graphics and the whole bit. 103 00:05:25,079 --> 00:05:29,360 So yeah, your mind changes based on what happened in 104 00:05:29,399 --> 00:05:31,759 the prior game, and as it should. 105 00:05:32,519 --> 00:05:36,759 Speaker 1: Well, Brian, it's certainly how the market teams to work, right, Like, 106 00:05:36,879 --> 00:05:39,399 maybe not after one game, but it does seem like 107 00:05:39,439 --> 00:05:42,160 if after you get two results, and I'll make this 108 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,000 parallel to the game that we're going to talk about 109 00:05:44,079 --> 00:05:46,839 right now, it seems like after you get two results 110 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,839 that go a certain way, that's when the shift occurs. 111 00:05:49,879 --> 00:05:53,240 And that's what we're seeing here. So the Mariners, they've 112 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,560 now this will be their third home game, they've lost 113 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,120 the first two. In the first two games, it was 114 00:05:58,199 --> 00:06:02,839 a minus one one, minus one twenty five. Yesterday I 115 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,319 jumped into I couldn't. I sat there all day and 116 00:06:05,319 --> 00:06:07,079 then when it got down to minus one fourteen, I 117 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,079 had to grab it yesterday. Now you're looking at the 118 00:06:10,079 --> 00:06:13,879 Mariners as a slight underdog at home. So do you 119 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,600 think that that's an overreaction or do you think this 120 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,439 matchup warrant the Blue Jays being a slight favor on 121 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:19,759 the road. 122 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 2: Well, we're looking at right now according to the Odds 123 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,879 Logic website, which I just rolled out of bed just 124 00:06:31,879 --> 00:06:36,399 again today, bad day. H gotsit's going against Miller and 125 00:06:36,439 --> 00:06:39,279 you're right, got Gossman's about a one to ten favorite 126 00:06:39,319 --> 00:06:42,319 here total of about seven seven. But it's one twenty 127 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:46,040 to the over a little bit. Well, Gotsman is more 128 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,079 established than Miller is. Miller did have a good star 129 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,480 last time out, and he's had a lot of bad 130 00:06:51,519 --> 00:06:55,319 starts before that. So yeah, any time he scored, his 131 00:06:55,399 --> 00:06:59,000 money runs as Toronto has scored the last two days, 132 00:06:59,399 --> 00:07:02,800 you're expect money to come that way. So I'm not 133 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:07,959 surprised that Toronto's favorite. And it is the lesser of 134 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:11,759 the starters for Seattle, whereas it's probably your best starter 135 00:07:11,959 --> 00:07:15,240 for Toronto. So yeah, it makes sense that Toronto would 136 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:16,199 be favored in this one. 137 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: So you know, I guess as far as the game 138 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,720 is concerned and kind of so this is this is 139 00:07:23,759 --> 00:07:28,040 where I sort of I think makes betting postseason baseball 140 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:32,800 so challenging, right, is that you're in a series. It's 141 00:07:32,839 --> 00:07:35,399 no different than the regular season, where you've got teams 142 00:07:35,439 --> 00:07:38,360 that you know play series, right, Like, that's the one 143 00:07:38,439 --> 00:07:40,319 nice thing about baseball as opposed to some of the 144 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,839 other sports I think is you know, you're not that 145 00:07:42,959 --> 00:07:45,600 you get to a postseason in like the NBA or 146 00:07:45,639 --> 00:07:47,920 the NHL, And it's kind of like this four in 147 00:07:48,279 --> 00:07:50,600 oh Okay. So we've been traveling all over the country 148 00:07:50,759 --> 00:07:53,360 now we're going to play a team seven times in 149 00:07:53,399 --> 00:07:56,759 the span of however, right like, however many days baseball 150 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:58,519 this is, this is kind of the norm playing a 151 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,240 team three or four times. But like so for me, 152 00:08:02,879 --> 00:08:05,160 the last two days, I've liked Seattle the last two 153 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,959 days that that's just where my handicap landed. The last 154 00:08:07,959 --> 00:08:12,439 two days they've lost. Starting pitching dictates a lot of 155 00:08:12,439 --> 00:08:15,319 what the handicap is. I look here and say, okay, 156 00:08:15,759 --> 00:08:18,680 you know, I played Bryce Miller and I cashed my 157 00:08:18,759 --> 00:08:21,240 game one bet on the Mariners plus one and a half. 158 00:08:21,839 --> 00:08:24,279 This was the pitching matchup. This was the pitching matchup 159 00:08:24,319 --> 00:08:27,680 Bryce Miller on the mound. I was getting a run 160 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,439 in a half though, and I felt like, given the situation, 161 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,559 that was good value and that he could be good 162 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:37,240 enough going into this matchup. Though I look at the 163 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,679 stat past page, there's a lot to be concerned with 164 00:08:39,879 --> 00:08:44,960 in my opinion. Suddenly the Mariners aren't hitting, which is 165 00:08:45,039 --> 00:08:48,360 also a concern, and I think, I mean, I think 166 00:08:48,399 --> 00:08:51,480 Gosvin's just the better option. So even this is the 167 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:55,120 challenge for me personally is like I want to you know, 168 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,399 part of me wants to be stubborn and say, well, 169 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,519 the Mariners get it today, right, like I was wrong 170 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:01,480 about them in Game three and Game four. They got 171 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:03,480 to get it here. But then I look at this 172 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,759 matchup and I'm like, well that my my numbers like 173 00:09:06,799 --> 00:09:10,440 the Jays. My brain tells me Gossmin is the superior 174 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,360 starter to Miller, and suddenly the Blue Jays are hitting. 175 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:17,679 So it's like that that, you know, if let's just 176 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:21,120 say game three and Game four and my brain never happened, right, 177 00:09:21,159 --> 00:09:23,519 Like I didn't have I didn't have to sit there 178 00:09:23,759 --> 00:09:27,279 miserable last night and watch my Mariner's bet lose and 179 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,279 go up in flames. I'm probably on the Blue Jays here, 180 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,000 but I did have to experience that, And now I'm 181 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,120 sitting here like do I am? I just gonna look 182 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,159 like a fool coming out and betting the Blue Jays 183 00:09:38,159 --> 00:09:40,919 and then the Mariners show up in game five. That's 184 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,159 I guess the challenge of betting playoff baseball and probably 185 00:09:44,159 --> 00:09:45,440 why I won't be on this game. 186 00:09:46,159 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's also guys that have faced the opponent before. 187 00:09:49,919 --> 00:09:54,799 In Pat Miller, you know he's at two playoff, He's 188 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,600 struggled dirt reggage season. We all know that. But he's 189 00:09:57,639 --> 00:09:59,919 at two playoff games. He went against the Tigers, gave 190 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,559 up two runs and four and a third not bad, 191 00:10:02,639 --> 00:10:07,000 only four hits, no walks, oh zero point nine two whips. 192 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:08,440 So he pitched pretty well in that one. And then 193 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:12,240 he faced this Toronto team up in Toronto in US 194 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:14,679 six innings, give up one honed run, two hits. He 195 00:10:14,759 --> 00:10:17,279 did struggle with his walks. He had three walks in 196 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,879 that game, only three strikeouts. He has not been dominant 197 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,480 from the strikeout perspective. He's only struck out five guys 198 00:10:23,519 --> 00:10:26,480 in the playoffs and ten and the third innings. Usually, 199 00:10:26,799 --> 00:10:29,679 when you see a team that just saw that starter recently, 200 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:33,519 I like to go opposite of what happened earlier. And granted, 201 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,000 Galsman pitched pretty well in his game. I believe he 202 00:10:36,039 --> 00:10:39,039 gave up two runs when he faced Seattle, but I 203 00:10:39,039 --> 00:10:41,720 wouldn't expect another start out of that like Miller had 204 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:45,200 in this in his last time. From a hitting standpoint, 205 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:50,200 both these teams are very good hitting teams. You're still 206 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:57,440 looking at that seven on the total, and since both 207 00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,879 teams have seen these pitchers and both pitchers had success 208 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:03,240 against them before, I hate to go back to the 209 00:11:03,279 --> 00:11:06,080 over but hey, if it ain't broken, that's the way 210 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:07,759 I would take a look at this. I would think 211 00:11:07,799 --> 00:11:10,200 Toronto would have a little bit more success against Miller 212 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:14,600 this time. So yeah, Toronto, team total over the game 213 00:11:14,759 --> 00:11:17,519 total over seems to be the way I would look 214 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,279 at this one. Uh, Seattle's got to be a little 215 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:22,799 bit shocked because they've been a really good team at 216 00:11:22,799 --> 00:11:25,600 home all year long, just as Toronto has, and yet 217 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,480 nobody has won a home game in this series of fact. 218 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,960 I believe last night the Dodgers went at home was 219 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,840 the first one in the round of the playoffs where 220 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,000 the home team has won. So I always say that 221 00:11:39,519 --> 00:11:42,639 the home the home field doesn't have nearly the advantage 222 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,519 in any sport when you get to the playoffs because 223 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,120 the teams that are there are good, they've won on 224 00:11:49,159 --> 00:11:51,960 the road before, and so it's less of a home 225 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,720 advantage during the playoffs as it is for the for 226 00:11:55,840 --> 00:12:01,799 the regular season. So uh, I, after as bad as 227 00:12:01,799 --> 00:12:03,919 my pick was yesterday, I'm a little self shocked myself 228 00:12:04,159 --> 00:12:08,080 in that regard. But still I've seen nothing to think 229 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:09,919 that this game is going to go under the total. 230 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,320 I think the over is probably the way of play this. 231 00:12:14,279 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: Three straight overs so far in this series all pretty 232 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,240 much easy. I mean the game two and Game three 233 00:12:21,279 --> 00:12:24,120 were over by a mile even yesterday. I mean it 234 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:27,840 kind of gets there with some room despair. I'm from 235 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:31,840 a number standpoint. Seven is too light like that to 236 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,879 me when you look at some of the struggles Miller's had. 237 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:38,519 The fact that, like you know, I pulled Gossman's lineup 238 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:41,639 from Game one, he bitched pretty good five and two thirds. 239 00:12:41,639 --> 00:12:44,320 He still gave up two runs on three hits. It's 240 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,759 not that the Mariners couldn't get to him. Yeah, that 241 00:12:46,919 --> 00:12:49,720 seven flat seems very well like the fact that you 242 00:12:49,759 --> 00:12:52,000 could the fact that you could get to three to 243 00:12:52,039 --> 00:12:56,000 three and have a free role opportunity seems like almost 244 00:12:56,039 --> 00:12:58,120 too good to be true in a game like this. 245 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,159 So the more we kind of talk about it back 246 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,600 and forth. From just from a straight up numbers value 247 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,240 perspective on the total, I would have to say you 248 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,399 have to play over seven, especially if it's like minus 249 00:13:09,399 --> 00:13:11,519 one ten, minus one fifteen, which it does appear to 250 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:17,519 be right now, you really like it. I think they're 251 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:18,919 gonna look at it, and people are gonna look at 252 00:13:18,919 --> 00:13:20,799 it and say, well, these two teams, these two pitchers, 253 00:13:20,799 --> 00:13:22,679 and these two teams faced off in Game one and 254 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,240 it was a three to one final. But that was 255 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,080 like a much, in my opinion, a much different scenario 256 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,320 than this game. On the same token, Brian, you had 257 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,840 game one, you had Kevin Gosman was like a dollar 258 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:38,559 seventy five dollars eighty favorite at one point in this 259 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:43,159 same pitching matchup in game one. I mean, it really 260 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:45,279 was not a maybe. It was a competitive game and 261 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:46,879 the Mariners just happened to end up on the right 262 00:13:46,879 --> 00:13:49,279 side of a three to one game. So so now 263 00:13:49,519 --> 00:13:53,200 Gossmin's now you're now he's only minus one ten, same matchup. 264 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:55,840 We're gonna move that seventy cents in the matter of 265 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:58,879 a couple of days. I actually think the JS and 266 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,039 the over are the value you here, and I just 267 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,399 don't know if I can I can stomach either, but 268 00:14:04,519 --> 00:14:06,279 I think that's where the value is in this game. 269 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 2: You can find Gospan out there right now at about well, 270 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,759 let's just the Toronto team total over at three and 271 00:14:13,799 --> 00:14:18,200 a half even money or basically even money just about 272 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,879 everywhere right now. So if Toronto has four runs, I 273 00:14:20,919 --> 00:14:25,080 think it accomplishes both and the way Miller's pitch for 274 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:30,159 most of the year, that would that would be something 275 00:14:30,159 --> 00:14:33,440 to take a look at. But once again, because Toronto 276 00:14:33,559 --> 00:14:35,879 has had the lead the last couple of games, the 277 00:14:35,879 --> 00:14:39,919 Seattle bullpen is in pretty good shape. But that's maybe 278 00:14:39,919 --> 00:14:44,480 maybe first half with first step deep total over yesterday 279 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,679 I got burned. But that might not be a bad situation. Here, 280 00:14:47,759 --> 00:14:49,120 let me check that out right here. 281 00:14:50,559 --> 00:14:52,559 Speaker 1: Well, you check that out. While you check that out, 282 00:14:52,639 --> 00:14:55,440 throw it out there, like, yes, the Seattle bullpen hasn't 283 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,399 been used. But when the Blue Jays are hitting, and 284 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,600 they are now, I think we can now officially say 285 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,200 they're hitting. I mean, this lineup one to nine is 286 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,600 going to be able to make some noise against just 287 00:15:07,639 --> 00:15:09,879 about anyone. Like yeah, maybe if they get into the 288 00:15:09,919 --> 00:15:12,320 ninth inning and it's Immunos coming in and slam the door. 289 00:15:12,559 --> 00:15:14,879 I'm like, Okay, I'm a little bit worried about the 290 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:19,279 Jays against the Mariners bullpen. Anyone else not that concerned 291 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,759 with with when the jit when this lineup is clicking 292 00:15:22,039 --> 00:15:24,639 one to nine, Uh, that's that's really something that I 293 00:15:24,639 --> 00:15:26,519 think you're gonna if the Blue Jays win this series, 294 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:28,360 we get to the World Series and you look back 295 00:15:28,559 --> 00:15:30,600 on how things went for them. You're gonna look at 296 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:33,200 the bottom of that order, guys like Ernie Clement Andres 297 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:36,000 Jimenez and the at bats they put together, and you're 298 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:40,039 just like one through nine, there's no breaks in this lineup. 299 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,360 That that is a kind of like the mark of 300 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:44,399 a championship team in my opinion a little bit. 301 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, the first half Toronto team total is one and 302 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,399 a half over minus one twenty five and one minus 303 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,080 one thirty. That was That's a better line than what 304 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:56,720 we saw yesterday with sure, so I believe I had 305 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:02,279 delay one fifty in that regard. So, yeah, any of 306 00:16:02,279 --> 00:16:04,879 those ways to play this game, either the team team 307 00:16:04,919 --> 00:16:08,360 totals over for saffer game and the game total over 308 00:16:09,519 --> 00:16:15,919 is the way I would look at it. I'm not yeah, yeah, 309 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,000 that's it. That's it. Yeah, that's way I would look 310 00:16:18,039 --> 00:16:18,320 at it. 311 00:16:18,879 --> 00:16:21,039 Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I'm at about seven point eight 312 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,080 on the total. So the fact that you can get 313 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,720 a flat seven I think is good value. That's probably 314 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,159 the best of anything in that game that I think 315 00:16:28,159 --> 00:16:30,799 we've talked about. I think that's flat seven. It is 316 00:16:30,879 --> 00:16:32,759 really nice value on the total. I want to go 317 00:16:32,799 --> 00:16:35,360 to the chat for a second. Great question here. I 318 00:16:35,399 --> 00:16:37,799 think it's worth especially since we have a little extra 319 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,519 time and a two game show. Think it's worth some attention. 320 00:16:41,759 --> 00:16:45,360 Jersey Tugging Sports in the chat says, can you explain 321 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,960 how to use the Odds logic screen? Brian Leonard, Let's 322 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,519 say you look at it. What does money come that 323 00:16:51,639 --> 00:16:55,399 way mean? And what it means and what it means 324 00:16:55,399 --> 00:16:58,879 when the odds change. I'll throw it to you. I 325 00:16:58,919 --> 00:17:01,320 think this is more like general like how to read 326 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:05,319 an odd screen, which it will will kind of sort 327 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:09,880 of come with experience using the site. Uh do you 328 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:11,960 do you have? I guess can you? Can? You throw him? 329 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,759 Just some general tips as to how to read the 330 00:17:14,759 --> 00:17:15,799 Odds logic screen. 331 00:17:16,279 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 2: Sure. First of all, you can rearrange any books you 332 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,519 want on here, and which is what I do. I 333 00:17:26,519 --> 00:17:29,480 I put to the left the places where I have 334 00:17:29,599 --> 00:17:31,920 bet and I've struggled, I haven't had a lot of profit. 335 00:17:32,759 --> 00:17:35,039 I put on the right the weaker books. You know, 336 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,319 your your DraftKings, your fandels, your ESPN bets, and also 337 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,359 all the places I've had success. So if you see 338 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:49,400 one half where for example, well, quick a quick look 339 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,559 at the right. Now if you're watching it right now. 340 00:17:51,599 --> 00:17:53,960 We've got in the w or excuse me, in the 341 00:17:54,039 --> 00:17:59,519 NBA preseason. We're looking in Minnesota, Philadelphia. The Sharper books 342 00:17:59,559 --> 00:18:04,440 are about to nineteen on the total, and some of 343 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,799 the others are a little bit different. You're looking at DraftKings, 344 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:12,680 you're looking at ESPN bet and you can bet MGM 345 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:17,240 basically Vantul two nineteen and a half. Well now, HERODAG 346 00:18:17,319 --> 00:18:20,000 just went down to two eighteen. So the sharp books 347 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,279 are telling you that should be under. And what you 348 00:18:23,319 --> 00:18:25,200 want to do is you want to look across you say, ooh, 349 00:18:25,279 --> 00:18:30,559 Fandels Vandels got a certain number out there to nineteen 350 00:18:30,599 --> 00:18:33,599 and a half to the under. So it's early. I 351 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:35,640 wouldn't look at it this way now because it's so 352 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:37,720 early and none of the big money's come in. But 353 00:18:37,799 --> 00:18:41,279 as the day goes on, you could see where the 354 00:18:41,319 --> 00:18:43,599 move lines are moving at certain books, and if it's 355 00:18:43,599 --> 00:18:46,920 the sharp books, those are the ones where you by 356 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:48,599 that time of the day when they're getting the bigger 357 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,240 money in, you could take a look at that and say, hey, 358 00:18:51,519 --> 00:18:53,920 I think this that's where this is going. If you 359 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,200 already like that side, you can take the number at 360 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,079 the other place and get a little bit better number 361 00:18:59,079 --> 00:19:03,960 than what's available the Sharper books. But yeah, it's telling 362 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:05,559 you what they brought in. And I've talked in the 363 00:19:05,599 --> 00:19:12,400 past about certain certain books being being places that really 364 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,160 every sport, there's certain places that I don't I don't 365 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,319 bet soccer, I don't follow soccer, don't know anything about it. 366 00:19:18,759 --> 00:19:21,279 But there's certain books out there. And Carmine is a 367 00:19:21,319 --> 00:19:25,480 soccer guy. You can always ask him that what books 368 00:19:25,559 --> 00:19:27,599 are the ones that are the sharp books and soccer 369 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,440 and you can take a look at that because there's 370 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:30,960 a lot of these places don't bring in a lot 371 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,559 of money like here in Vegas for the most part, 372 00:19:33,559 --> 00:19:34,960 I don't think they bring in a lot of money 373 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,160 in soccer, so you can maybe play the local Vegas books. 374 00:19:38,599 --> 00:19:40,720 But that's what I look at. And if I see 375 00:19:40,759 --> 00:19:43,519 all the Sharper books, at least for me that I 376 00:19:43,559 --> 00:19:47,240 consider sharp, going one direction and the lesser books that 377 00:19:47,279 --> 00:19:51,279 I've had success in not moving it yet I can 378 00:19:51,279 --> 00:19:52,880 go in there and grab a good number. 379 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: Great stuff. And that adologic screen is very helpful. Like 380 00:19:58,559 --> 00:20:01,039 here's the thing, like any other any of the products 381 00:20:01,039 --> 00:20:04,119 out there, the more you sort of use it and 382 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:08,119 and trial and error, asking questions is absolutely the way 383 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,359 to go. You'll just kind of get used to it. 384 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,680 And any product like that, I've used it. It really just 385 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,880 takes time kind of using it and figuring it out. 386 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,240 But I think, I mean, I feel like I've seen 387 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,839 them all at this point, and I'm very impressed with 388 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,960 odds logic. I think it's great. So uh and at 389 00:20:24,039 --> 00:20:26,279 for the for the cost, it's like a kind of 390 00:20:26,279 --> 00:20:28,480 a no brainer is relative to like what some of 391 00:20:28,519 --> 00:20:33,799 the other products out there costs, so a very good option. Yeah, No, 392 00:20:33,839 --> 00:20:36,559 that's that would Uh, that was great, Brian. Let's uh, 393 00:20:36,759 --> 00:20:40,720 let's continue on. We have a we have another uh, 394 00:20:40,759 --> 00:20:43,960 we have another game to talk about here. Believe it 395 00:20:44,039 --> 00:20:46,519 or not, the series is still going on. It feels 396 00:20:46,559 --> 00:20:48,799 like as I watch it, it's like, oh, it's like 397 00:20:48,839 --> 00:20:52,759 a foregone conclusion that it's ending. But hey, you know what, 398 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,039 there's something to be said for, Like it's a new day. 399 00:20:56,039 --> 00:20:58,519 The score is zero zero, the Brewers still get to 400 00:20:58,519 --> 00:21:01,880 come out and play baseball today. It's for they pulled 401 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,759 a fast one on me. I thought we were gonna 402 00:21:03,759 --> 00:21:07,559 se Jose Quintana yesterday. They made the move to go 403 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,920 to Miserski after the opener and that move, I mean 404 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,279 it backfired, but hey, the Dodgers just continue to play 405 00:21:15,279 --> 00:21:17,880 great ball. I didn't think the Brewers necessarily played I 406 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,319 don't think the Brewers have necessarily played poorly. They're just 407 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,200 running into the best team in the league, playing great ball, 408 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,920 getting great efforts from all of their pitchers. What do 409 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,559 you even do there, Brian, Like, you know what, we 410 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,759 almost just have to tip the cap. But at the 411 00:21:32,759 --> 00:21:35,720 same token, it's a new day. Do you have any 412 00:21:35,759 --> 00:21:38,400 faith in Milwaukee getting back in this series tonight? 413 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 2: Yeah? You mentioned the Quintana situation, and as I said 414 00:21:43,519 --> 00:21:46,440 on the Hockey Show yesterday, as they changed goalies on 415 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,839 one of my free plays the day before, you can 416 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,640 only go with the information you have, and Quintana was 417 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,960 supposed to be the guy, the bulkaning guy. Yesterday when 418 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:59,559 Miserski came in, I thought Miszeroski pitched very well, dominating strikeouts, 419 00:21:59,599 --> 00:22:02,240 didn't didn't have the walk problems that he had in 420 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,720 the past. The last two times out, he's taken a 421 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:08,440 little bit off of his fastball and it's worked for him. 422 00:22:08,519 --> 00:22:11,839 So I'm excited about his future with Milwaukee. I'm sure 423 00:22:11,839 --> 00:22:14,440 they are too, because if you can get a guy 424 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,880 that throws can blow it by somebody like he can, 425 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,079 and he can control it a little bit better than 426 00:22:20,079 --> 00:22:23,400 what he's had in the minors and somewhat in the majors, 427 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,960 it's something to look forward to. We had mentioned off 428 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,000 air all the pitchers that Milwaukee has had, and they 429 00:22:30,039 --> 00:22:33,200 were so many grid starters all year long, and now 430 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,119 they'd come up with injuries and some guys have missed 431 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,400 and the Dodgers the opposite. The Dodgers all season long 432 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,079 struggled with their rotation, had a lot of guys in there, 433 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,559 but now their best guys are all healthy. So if 434 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,160 this series had been played a month ago, I may 435 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,880 have had a different outcome. But right now you're looking 436 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,920 at the Dodgers with their full starting rotation out there 437 00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,000 in Milwaukee at this point, just trying to find somebody 438 00:23:00,079 --> 00:23:04,200 who can get him some innings. It's it's undecided right 439 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,799 now who the starter is, but it'll probably be a 440 00:23:06,799 --> 00:23:09,480 one inning guy coming in as an opener. It won't 441 00:23:09,519 --> 00:23:12,880 be Ashby again. Uh, he's pitched three the last four days. 442 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:17,480 But we will see, like like you said, we will 443 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,839 see a little bit of Jose Quintana. I have more 444 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,519 faith than Quatana than a lot of people do. But 445 00:23:22,839 --> 00:23:24,960 I don't know if I want Milwaukee in this game. 446 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:29,119 We're looking at Otani's on the mound and he has 447 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:33,200 not done anything with the bats, So I, knowing his 448 00:23:33,319 --> 00:23:35,799 personality and the way he works, I would expect him 449 00:23:35,799 --> 00:23:38,519 to be on in this In this game from a 450 00:23:38,519 --> 00:23:41,480 pitching standpoint, at least he can help his team. You're 451 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,599 looking at about one one eighty five to one ninety 452 00:23:44,799 --> 00:23:47,720 out there for the Dodgers right now, total of eight 453 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,279 slightly to the under, seven and a half slightly to 454 00:23:50,319 --> 00:23:53,880 the over. I said yesterday that game for Milwaukee was 455 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,640 the one they needed to have. They used Miserowski for 456 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:02,519 seventy three pitches. They had you Rebay out there. He 457 00:24:02,599 --> 00:24:04,920 pitches now pitched three out of the last four games. 458 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,440 He's been their closure lately. They don't really trust McGill, 459 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,920 who's coming back from injury and conig through twenty four Ashby, 460 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:14,359 as I mentioned, it's throwing three out of the last 461 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,359 four days. So they're going to lose a little bit 462 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,480 of the back end of the bullpen in that. But 463 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,079 you know the Dodgers. You take a look at what 464 00:24:23,079 --> 00:24:26,200 the Dodgers have done. And obviously the closure came out 465 00:24:26,279 --> 00:24:28,680 yesterday and he looked great again. You had one little 466 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,880 miss step. He's the first pitcher in history to have 467 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,640 no saves in the regular season and have three saves 468 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:39,920 in the playoffs. Sazaki's pitched great, but they did use 469 00:24:40,279 --> 00:24:43,440 four or five bullpen arms yesterday. I had she and 470 00:24:43,519 --> 00:24:45,400 warming up in the bullpen. I really like she and 471 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,440 I think he's got a really good future for this team. 472 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,279 But they've got they've got quality guys. Casper right is 473 00:24:50,319 --> 00:24:53,079 out there, Kershaw. They haven't used them in the playoffs 474 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:57,680 as have yet, so the Dodgers are pretty well set. 475 00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,559 They had the last two days, didn't need them at all, 476 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,599 and they've got to, in my opinion, a pretty good 477 00:25:02,599 --> 00:25:07,160 pitching advantage here. And it's clear now that Will Smith 478 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,160 will catch every game, and that means that the Brewers 479 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,200 will not be able to steal bases. And the way 480 00:25:14,279 --> 00:25:16,440 pitching's gone for the Dodgers, they've got to get on 481 00:25:16,519 --> 00:25:19,480 base and they haven't had many hits. So only one 482 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,119 way for me to look in this game, and that 483 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:26,200 would be all Twani and the Dodgers. And normally a 484 00:25:26,279 --> 00:25:30,920 team is down three nothing in the playoffs. I think 485 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,000 they're done. But this Milwaukee team, if you follow them 486 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,680 all year long, how many times would we expect or 487 00:25:36,759 --> 00:25:39,839 were we expecting them to have a letdown or this 488 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,680 is the time that they're gonna let the opposition back in. No, 489 00:25:42,799 --> 00:25:46,200 they've been full bore all year long. But some of 490 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:47,960 the looks and some of the comments out of this 491 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:52,920 Milwaukee the players, the interviews are the players. They're saying 492 00:25:53,039 --> 00:25:57,200 what they're supposed to say, but the tone in their voice, 493 00:25:57,279 --> 00:26:00,359 looks on our faces are like they're shell shocked. And 494 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,960 it's not a team I want to play right now. 495 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,079 So it'll be the Dodgers or nothing for me, and 496 00:26:06,799 --> 00:26:09,279 I'll look to play something for the Dodgers, but I 497 00:26:09,279 --> 00:26:11,359 don't want to lay two dollars in the game. So 498 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:12,559 that's how I would look at it. 499 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,519 Speaker 1: All right. Let me let me make the counter argument 500 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,720 just for argument's sake here, since we're trying to break 501 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:24,119 down the game and do it from all angles, like, 502 00:26:24,519 --> 00:26:27,240 so a couple of things here, someone asked in the chat. 503 00:26:27,279 --> 00:26:30,759 Of course I somehow managed to lose the comment. Not 504 00:26:30,839 --> 00:26:33,400 sure how I clicked off of that, but anyway, they said, 505 00:26:34,039 --> 00:26:36,400 they said, you know something to the extent of like 506 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,599 you know, who's the starter for the Brewers. They haven't 507 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,279 really been announcing their starters. So yeah, that, like I 508 00:26:41,279 --> 00:26:43,839 said in the open, that took me for for me 509 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,519 for a little bit of a loop. Yesterday. I thought 510 00:26:45,559 --> 00:26:48,079 they would probably use Katana. They didn't. They went mis 511 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:52,000 Zeroski in Game three after an opener. It will be 512 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,680 Jose Quintana today as as from a from a standpoint 513 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,000 of he's going to throw the most innings at least 514 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:03,759 unless they unless Pat Murphy has you know, a surprise 515 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,279 for us that no one expects, like he's likely going 516 00:27:07,319 --> 00:27:09,400 to be the person that throws the ball at the 517 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,880 innings today. Now, I assume he's just gonna start because 518 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,000 he's a lefty and and the idea is the only, 519 00:27:16,039 --> 00:27:18,000 the only, really time, the only really reason to use 520 00:27:18,039 --> 00:27:21,319 an opener if you're the Brewers against the Dodgers like 521 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,079 an Ashby like yesterday, is to bring in the lefty 522 00:27:24,079 --> 00:27:26,480 to face Otani and Freeman before you bring in your 523 00:27:26,519 --> 00:27:29,319 right handed starter. So with the fact that Quintana is 524 00:27:29,319 --> 00:27:32,160 a lefty, I don't see any reason for the Brewers 525 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,279 to use an opener. It's likely just gonna be Quintana 526 00:27:35,759 --> 00:27:38,599 and then they'll go from there. So I'm gonna go 527 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,039 back to the last series if you if you look 528 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,119 at who the Dodger struggled with a little bit against 529 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,519 the Phillies, it was Ranger Suarez after he came in 530 00:27:47,519 --> 00:27:50,000 in Game three after Aaron Nola five innings of one 531 00:27:50,079 --> 00:27:52,640 run ball. You know, he's kind of a lefty that 532 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,000 I'm not saying Quintana is better than him by any means, 533 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,680 but they throw some of the same stuff. I think 534 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,640 they have some of the same idea in terms of 535 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,759 how they they want to attack opposing hitters. And then 536 00:28:03,799 --> 00:28:06,759 the following day was of course the day that the 537 00:28:06,759 --> 00:28:11,319 Phillies ended up losing an extra innings. That was Christopher Sanchez, 538 00:28:11,319 --> 00:28:13,559 who pitched a pretty good game. He went six and 539 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:18,279 a third one run on five hits. So the Dodgers 540 00:28:18,319 --> 00:28:21,480 like against that. I'm not saying Quintana is those two. 541 00:28:21,759 --> 00:28:25,440 I certainly think Suarez and Sanchez are better, but he's 542 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,680 a veteran and they've got, you know, almost the same 543 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,200 thing with Max Scherzer almost supplies here to Quintana like 544 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,119 he's been around forever. The moment is not going to 545 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,200 be too big for him right, and if he's going 546 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,559 out there and executing his pitches, he can turn in 547 00:28:40,599 --> 00:28:43,480 a start that looks like one of those starts from 548 00:28:43,519 --> 00:28:46,119 the Phillies last round when they're two lefties did very 549 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,920 well against this lineup. Now, the other thing that I 550 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:52,079 think you have to note here is Otani when he pitches, 551 00:28:52,119 --> 00:28:54,519 his numbers are worse. So if you're looking at the Dodgers, 552 00:28:54,519 --> 00:28:56,319 it's not like I mean, it's not like the Dodgers 553 00:28:56,319 --> 00:28:59,519 have absolutely knocked the cover off the ball in this series. 554 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,640 It's been very much pitching that's won the Dodgers these games. 555 00:29:04,119 --> 00:29:07,599 First game, Game one, they scored two runs, ended up 556 00:29:07,599 --> 00:29:10,440 winning two to one. Game two, they kind of tacked 557 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,039 on here and there, but it was like a two 558 00:29:12,079 --> 00:29:15,640 out hit. I think it was a two out. It 559 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,839 was a solo home run followed by a couple two 560 00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:19,839 out hits to get the lead in Game two. And 561 00:29:19,839 --> 00:29:21,920 then last night's game is three to one. So you know, 562 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,039 it's not like the Dodgers are out here playing Beer 563 00:29:24,119 --> 00:29:27,799 League softball, Brian, where it's ten eleven runs and everyone's hitting. 564 00:29:27,799 --> 00:29:31,920 They're just doing enough just to win. And so to me, 565 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,640 it's like you're gonna probably lower Otani's value from an 566 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,880 offensive standpoint with the fact that he's on the mount. 567 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,960 Now you gotta look at lineups. I assume Will Smith 568 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,440 will be behind the dish. But hey, three games in 569 00:29:43,519 --> 00:29:45,079 three days, you got a three to nothing lead in 570 00:29:45,119 --> 00:29:48,720 the series. Does he decide maybe? Does maybe he say, well, 571 00:29:48,759 --> 00:29:50,920 we'll throw him a day off. Probably not, but it's 572 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:52,759 it's I guess it's something to keep an eye on. 573 00:29:54,839 --> 00:29:57,400 I don't think this is the worst matchup for the Brewers. 574 00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,680 And then I start to look at the market and 575 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,880 I'm hoping that everyone else has the same thought process 576 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:07,359 of like, wow, this is over. Dodgers are nothing like 577 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,920 it can't possibly go any other way, because I think 578 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,079 it just came down ten to fifteen cents. I'd be 579 00:30:12,119 --> 00:30:14,240 down to take a shot with Brewers plus one and 580 00:30:14,279 --> 00:30:16,359 a half. You're getting the road team, you get the 581 00:30:16,359 --> 00:30:20,119 extra at that se these games, even though these games 582 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:24,279 really have been close, I mean it's been Dodgers tacking 583 00:30:24,319 --> 00:30:26,799 on runs all three games. It was a close game 584 00:30:27,039 --> 00:30:29,519 where the Dodgers just kind of tacked on a run. 585 00:30:29,759 --> 00:30:32,440 Even Game one was a one nothing game, they score 586 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:35,720 to nothing, they win two to one. So I think 587 00:30:35,759 --> 00:30:38,279 the best thing on the board for me today, at 588 00:30:38,359 --> 00:30:41,119 least as it stands right now, is Brewers plus one 589 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:44,480 and a half. And I'm hoping that the as the 590 00:30:44,599 --> 00:30:47,759 masses start to wake up, I know, shout out to 591 00:30:47,759 --> 00:30:49,759 Brian Leonard again. He does the show at six am 592 00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,720 West Coast time every morning, and I see every time 593 00:30:53,759 --> 00:30:55,640 we do this show, as the show goes on, I 594 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,559 see I see the viewer count go up, and I 595 00:30:58,599 --> 00:31:01,519 think it's because for two reasons. I think, you know, 596 00:31:02,039 --> 00:31:04,240 maybe we do have some live viewers in here, but 597 00:31:04,359 --> 00:31:06,480 the West Coast people start to wake up. And when 598 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,160 the West Coast people start to wake up, and as 599 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,640 the day goes on and they start to bet, it's 600 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,640 playoff baseball. It's probably the one time of the year 601 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,960 where the betting public can sort of influence the number, 602 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,119 maybe a little bit more. I don't think the pub, 603 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,319 the betting public's ever influencing a number in the regular season, 604 00:31:21,839 --> 00:31:23,960 but with the postseason handle, I feel like it works 605 00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,640 more like a like a standalone football game in a sense. 606 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,039 If it's just an influx of Dodgers money and this 607 00:31:30,119 --> 00:31:32,599 Brewer's line moves a little bit and suddenly I can 608 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,559 get plus one and a half at let's say minus 609 00:31:34,559 --> 00:31:38,319 one twenty minus one fifteen, that might be where your 610 00:31:38,319 --> 00:31:42,720 boy ends up today. I something's telling me the Brewers 611 00:31:42,799 --> 00:31:45,279 might have one in them at least an effort. And 612 00:31:45,319 --> 00:31:46,920 if they give an effort and they lose by one, 613 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,240 your cash and your ticket anyway. So that's my counter 614 00:31:50,319 --> 00:31:51,920 to your argument right there, Brian. 615 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's six point thirty. I know in Vegas the 616 00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,920 sportsbooks don't actually open until but they do. They all 617 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:03,640 have chaosques and have telephone accounts, but they're limited. You 618 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,119 you can't get as much in at this time of 619 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,759 the day as you could later. That's not going to 620 00:32:08,799 --> 00:32:11,599 affect the general public, but it will affect the guys 621 00:32:11,599 --> 00:32:14,799 who were betting for a living. So that will be 622 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,880 come later on, So you'll see that later on. I 623 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,039 went back and looked at Quinn and he did pitch 624 00:32:20,079 --> 00:32:23,079 three innings against the Cubs in the playoffs on the 625 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:28,680 on the eighth, and he was it was very good. Then. 626 00:32:28,759 --> 00:32:35,119 His last start in in the regular season was August fourteenth, 627 00:32:35,599 --> 00:32:38,359 he threw four innings against the Cardinals, so he hasn't 628 00:32:38,359 --> 00:32:40,519 pitched a lot lately. They do throw on the side 629 00:32:40,559 --> 00:32:44,119 and all, so that made it's not a huge deal, 630 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,480 but we saw Shares are coming back from a big 631 00:32:46,559 --> 00:32:49,640 layoff and look good yesterday. The thing that got me 632 00:32:49,839 --> 00:32:52,480 was that I was wrong about was his velocity because 633 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,680 he was more arrested. I didn't give that enough credit 634 00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,920 because he's throwing two miles an hour faster yesterday than 635 00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:06,039 it had been his last few starts. But yeah, I'm 636 00:33:06,039 --> 00:33:07,960 not I'm not gonna change my opinion on the game, 637 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:14,880 which isn't much. But yeah, good, good breakdown. But I 638 00:33:15,319 --> 00:33:18,039 just haven't seen enough out of this Milwaukee team. Now. 639 00:33:18,119 --> 00:33:20,960 If they're in the game and they have a big inning, 640 00:33:21,039 --> 00:33:23,000 let's say they score three in the first or second, 641 00:33:23,079 --> 00:33:25,279 then they then they may wake up and say, hey, 642 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,720 you know this is our game, and you'll see the 643 00:33:28,759 --> 00:33:31,680 old Brewers. But right now, that's that's atainus a little 644 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,319 bit shell shocked. I believe I'm. 645 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 1: Gonna go to a comment here. We've got a lot 646 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,200 of viewers here, and I want to take some questions 647 00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:42,079 from the chat all we have time. I got to 648 00:33:42,119 --> 00:33:43,599 disagree with this one, but I think it's I think 649 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,839 a lot of people don't understand why teams use an opener. 650 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:48,519 So I'm gonna try to explain this, and then you 651 00:33:48,559 --> 00:33:53,480 can you can counter so using an openers dumb. Dodgers 652 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,240 went left, right, left yesterday to counter that move. Okay, 653 00:33:56,319 --> 00:34:00,000 so yes, the Dodgers had a he and I guess 654 00:34:00,079 --> 00:34:02,599 an answer for anything that Bruce was gonna was gonna do. 655 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,200 But now I'm gonna were going to bring up Collins 656 00:34:04,319 --> 00:34:06,319 question just as the second part of as a Collins 657 00:34:06,319 --> 00:34:10,239 statement at best. Kintanago's five. Okay. The reason that you 658 00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,480 use an opener, and the reason it's not dumb, is 659 00:34:12,519 --> 00:34:16,800 because you you're basically saying, I know that this starting 660 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,719 pitcher is gonna go probably only go four or five innings. 661 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,119 I know at some point we are going to need 662 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,639 to use a reliever in a big spot against the 663 00:34:24,679 --> 00:34:28,320 Dodgers' best hitters. So what these teams are doing? Shout 664 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:29,960 out lou Panella. I think he was the one that 665 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,400 figured this out when he was with the Ras. Was like, 666 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:36,239 I'm gonna take my best reliever and put them in 667 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,440 the situation that they might be in the fifth or 668 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,679 sixth inning, and I'm gonna do it in the first inning. 669 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,719 The reason it's not dumb, it's more it's something out 670 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:45,760 of necessity. Brian, Like, if I go to the gym, 671 00:34:46,039 --> 00:34:48,239 okay me. If I go to the gym and I 672 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,360 throw weights on the bench press, like, you can bet 673 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,960 I'm having someone spot me because I'm just not strong 674 00:34:54,079 --> 00:34:56,920 enough to be banging out bench press, is no problem. 675 00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:00,400 Not kill myself. Okay. It's kind of like baseball. If 676 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,480 you got Tarik Skouble, you're not really worried about the 677 00:35:03,519 --> 00:35:06,559 spot or you're like, no problem, go go rep one 678 00:35:06,599 --> 00:35:08,480 P fifty or whatever you got on the bar there, 679 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,840 you're good. Okay. If you got Yamamoto or something like that, 680 00:35:12,039 --> 00:35:13,920 you're good. That's not a problem. We expect you to 681 00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,639 go seven when you don't, when you have someone that 682 00:35:16,679 --> 00:35:19,800 you don't trust to go more than four or five innings, 683 00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:22,079 or that the plan is not to go more than 684 00:35:22,079 --> 00:35:25,039 four or five innings, the opener makes complete sense because 685 00:35:25,039 --> 00:35:28,920 you are now guaranteeing you are guaranteeing that you get 686 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,599 the matchup with your reliever, the one that you want 687 00:35:31,679 --> 00:35:34,039 against the hitters that you wanted to get. So that 688 00:35:34,199 --> 00:35:36,599 is why teams have adopted that team's more of a 689 00:35:36,679 --> 00:35:39,719 widespread thing. Teams have adopted the opener, and that's why 690 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:43,519 as a better you actually I think you sort of 691 00:35:43,679 --> 00:35:46,320 like having the opener because it's it's basically you're you 692 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:51,000 go into the game knowing, okay, at least okay, I 693 00:35:51,039 --> 00:35:54,360 know Ashby is a lefty. Now again it backfire yesterday, 694 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,559 but you're you're going into the game knowing, I'm gonna 695 00:35:56,559 --> 00:35:59,920 get Ashby here, who's been a pretty good lefty relief 696 00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,800 against two left handed hitters, right Like, you know that's 697 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:08,280 what you're gonna get. I actually I found myself gravitating 698 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:12,599 toward betting on sides that have the opener where I 699 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,239 know the guy coming in after him is someone I like. 700 00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:17,559 So that's just my comment to that. I don't. I 701 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,800 actually think it's that. It's the opposite. I think it's 702 00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,119 sort of genius. And yeah, every once in a while 703 00:36:23,119 --> 00:36:24,840 it's going to a back player, but I would say 704 00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,039 it works more often than not. 705 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,559 Speaker 2: Well, Toronto or Tampa Bay was the team that started it. 706 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,119 And yeah, granted it's frustrating. It's more frustrating from a 707 00:36:34,199 --> 00:36:38,679 betting standpoint because you I've been around for doing this 708 00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:43,440 for forty five years. You know to bet list your 709 00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,639 starters because if all of a sudden they make a 710 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,639 change and you don't want that guy in there, so 711 00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,360 you're stuck with that line. So that's something that's happened 712 00:36:51,559 --> 00:36:54,119 years ago when they didn't have such a thing such 713 00:36:54,159 --> 00:36:57,760 as the starters or the opener. Excuse me, but Tampa 714 00:36:57,800 --> 00:36:59,239 Bay did it, and Tampa Bay is one of the 715 00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:03,039 smartest organizations baseball. Then other team started to doing the 716 00:37:03,119 --> 00:37:07,320 copy of it. The reason why Milwaukee does it is, 717 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:11,360 let's just take a look at Otani. This is this 718 00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,199 is regular season, this is before this slump in the playoffs. 719 00:37:15,559 --> 00:37:19,239 He's basically had twice as many played appearances against Reddies 720 00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,079 then lefties. So all you really have to do is 721 00:37:22,159 --> 00:37:25,039 double up his numbers against lefties to show you the 722 00:37:25,039 --> 00:37:28,760 differential between lefties and righties. First of all, the ops 723 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:33,280 against lefties eight ninety eight, the ops against rheties ten 724 00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,920 seventy seven, almost two hundred points higher in that regard, 725 00:37:37,039 --> 00:37:40,760 slugging five point fifty four against lefties six sixty six 726 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:44,920 or sixty sixty one. Slugging on base percentage three forty four, 727 00:37:45,039 --> 00:37:50,239 four sixteen. The way they really He's had fifteen home 728 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,079 runs in two hundred and forty four at bats against lefties. 729 00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:58,360 He's had forty home runs and four hundred and eighty three. 730 00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,519 So if you were to double home runs basically is 731 00:38:01,519 --> 00:38:03,440 what we've done and everything else, he would have thirty 732 00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:07,000 home runs versus lefties, forty home runs versus righties. That's 733 00:38:07,039 --> 00:38:11,440 a big reason to bring a lefty in there. And 734 00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:14,280 you do bring a lefty in there because that's one 735 00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:18,840 less a bat that he's going to have against the 736 00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:22,599 guy pitching, and that gives the if Milwaukee's using a 737 00:38:22,679 --> 00:38:28,199 right hander in this game, that's one less tanya bet 738 00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,480 that he has to face. And most hitters the lefty right. 739 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:32,760 I know a lot of people don't like the left 740 00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,199 e right. There's a reason why the teams that do 741 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,320 the lefty righty splits have all had a lot of success. 742 00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:44,280 Look at Cleveland, look at Tampa Bay. There's Minnesota, to 743 00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:47,280 a pretty good extent, does a lot of that. But 744 00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,400 the teams that do it have had success over the 745 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:53,199 years with lower payroll teams. Now you get a team 746 00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:55,039 like say the Doctors, want to do something like that, 747 00:38:55,119 --> 00:38:58,000 a huge payroll team, or the Yankees. They don't do 748 00:38:58,039 --> 00:39:00,519 a lot of that. The Yankees a little bit more 749 00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,760 than what the Dodgers do from a pitching standpoint. But 750 00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:08,039 when you've got the excellent starters the Dodgers have, you 751 00:39:08,079 --> 00:39:10,599 don't need to do that. But when you're a lower 752 00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,559 level team from you can't afford the players that the 753 00:39:14,599 --> 00:39:17,159 Dodgers do, The Brewers have to do that, and the 754 00:39:17,159 --> 00:39:20,159 other teams do it. It makes the teams more competitive. 755 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:23,920 And anytime you can make a team that's not nearly 756 00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,800 paying the players as much as the other teams are, 757 00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,199 you've got to find ways to do it. And that's 758 00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,519 one of the ways that they have done it over 759 00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:35,119 the last few years. And even in the sportsbooks now 760 00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,159 a lot of times where you used to have to 761 00:39:37,159 --> 00:39:41,119 specify the starting pitchers, you've got to do that now. 762 00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,639 And it doesn't automatically come that way. You've got to 763 00:39:43,679 --> 00:39:46,719 hit a button to specify them, as opposed before you 764 00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:51,159 had to specify No, no, you're not back in all 765 00:39:51,199 --> 00:39:54,119 the starters there. So times have changed. A lot of 766 00:39:54,199 --> 00:39:57,199 us don't like change, but it's I believe it's for 767 00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:00,480 the better of the lesser teams in baseball. I mean, 768 00:40:00,519 --> 00:40:02,920 it's made the league more competitive over the ears if 769 00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,960 you just discount teams like Colorado Rockies. 770 00:40:07,039 --> 00:40:09,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, and David says, if it isn't dumb, then then 771 00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:12,079 why hasn't been the norm in the regular season. It 772 00:40:12,199 --> 00:40:14,760 is the norm. There's like probably one or two games 773 00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:18,800 a day that minimum, at least one or two a 774 00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,519 day that are using an opener. And it's not that 775 00:40:22,079 --> 00:40:25,239 it really is just out of necessity and the reason 776 00:40:25,599 --> 00:40:28,719 that you're seeing it so often. Starting pitchers are just 777 00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:32,159 unicorns now. They're just the way that these kids throw, 778 00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:36,840 the way that that the the demand on the pitcher's body, 779 00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,679 and the way that they throw. You're just not finding 780 00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,880 many guys that can go out consistently throw six or 781 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,880 seven innings and not get hurt. So it's like, I 782 00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:50,519 don't think I truly don't think any team wants to 783 00:40:50,639 --> 00:40:53,000 use an opener. Okay, I don't think any team's out 784 00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:56,119 there like, yeah, I can't wait to try Andy Ashby 785 00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,679 out there for an inning. Right here, it is totally 786 00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,480 something they do out of necessity, and the Brewers have 787 00:41:02,599 --> 00:41:06,000 gotten themselves into a position where like they just don't 788 00:41:06,039 --> 00:41:09,440 have they don't have starters right now. Wood Drift hurt, 789 00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:11,760 a couple other guys hurt, and then the ones they 790 00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:15,239 do have are not guys that they want to they 791 00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,119 want another team to see a third time through the order, 792 00:41:18,199 --> 00:41:20,480 so it's the lesser of two evils. It's do we 793 00:41:20,519 --> 00:41:24,280 start the game with this guy, have them go three 794 00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,599 innings and bring our guy in, or do we start 795 00:41:26,599 --> 00:41:29,360 the game traditional and under and know that we might 796 00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,039 be in the bullpen in the fourth or fifth inning. 797 00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,360 That I think is just a judgment call and the coach. 798 00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:35,440 I don't think there's a right or wrong answer. I 799 00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,119 think it just it's just the way that some guys 800 00:41:38,159 --> 00:41:40,639 play it as opposed to others. I do think so 801 00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:44,280 the person in the chat that asked about Miserawski, it's 802 00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:47,039 probably a case by case, person by person basis. Like 803 00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:52,519 some guys have have thrived coming in after the opener, 804 00:41:52,599 --> 00:41:55,480 like guys that have. Colin Ray was one where I 805 00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,199 felt like as a starter he wasn't great, but you 806 00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:00,760 gave him an inning to chill and bring him after 807 00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,320 the opener and he was awesome. Priester had a really 808 00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,280 good run this year for a long time coming in 809 00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:08,880 after the opener. So again I don't I don't know 810 00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:10,519 there's a rhyme or reason to it, but I do 811 00:42:10,559 --> 00:42:13,800 think it's more of a necessity thing, and and that's 812 00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:15,679 just you know, it's a good conversation. We had a 813 00:42:15,679 --> 00:42:19,360 few minutes to chat, but but I would not I 814 00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,239 don't think a team using an opener should be putting 815 00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:26,000 you off playing that team. That's that's sometimes where I 816 00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:28,559 think the people gloss over the handicap and they're like, oh, well, 817 00:42:28,599 --> 00:42:30,880 this guy is starting. It's like, you need to know 818 00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:32,840 that that's not the starter. You need to know that 819 00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:36,920 the starter is Quinquintana or whoever it's going to be. 820 00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,800 That's how you should be basic. Your your handicap should 821 00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:43,400 be based off the guy that's pitching bulk and so 822 00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,320 I think during the regular season there's a lot of 823 00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:48,360 value if you if you sort of know and can 824 00:42:48,519 --> 00:42:49,920 kind of track what teams are going to do with 825 00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,679 their pitching, because oftentimes they just throw a number out 826 00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:59,639 based on whoever that opener is. Okay, we have we 827 00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,719 have sort of beat these two games to death, talked 828 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,880 about openers, talked about odds logic. Try to give you 829 00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,480 forty five minutes of good betting content even though there's 830 00:43:09,519 --> 00:43:11,840 only two games with the last two minutes. Brian Leonard, 831 00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:13,360 do you have anything to promote for today? 832 00:43:14,199 --> 00:43:17,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got this is the Friday college football been 833 00:43:17,679 --> 00:43:20,280 on a tremendous ground. I believe twelve and four in 834 00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:23,840 college football, I've got two plays up on this limited 835 00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,039 card on Friday out of the four games still working 836 00:43:27,079 --> 00:43:29,000 on the Saturday card, I've got one play up there 837 00:43:29,039 --> 00:43:33,639 now with more to come. And hockey. Yesterday I split 838 00:43:33,679 --> 00:43:37,760 out in hockey after sweeping the day before, So hockey's 839 00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,599 going very well. Baseball had gone well till that damn 840 00:43:40,599 --> 00:43:44,559 five starry yesterday. But everything's up the right there. They 841 00:43:44,599 --> 00:43:47,079 do have that great weekend special, weekend Warrior special. We 842 00:43:47,079 --> 00:43:48,840 can get all of our football plays. That's a great 843 00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,679 week to take care of that. I'll have a lot 844 00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,880 of plays up. I've got an NFL play up already, 845 00:43:54,519 --> 00:43:59,000 and you've already got probably my best baseball play. So 846 00:43:59,119 --> 00:44:01,320 if I do put that up, no need to buy 847 00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:03,360 that is. I will be using the over in the 848 00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:03,920 tront again. 849 00:44:06,519 --> 00:44:10,840 Speaker 1: I it makes me laugh because it's the will. I 850 00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:14,800 will joke that it's like a market that's borderline impossible 851 00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:18,119 to beat long term. NFL very very tough market to beat, 852 00:44:18,119 --> 00:44:20,039 But right now that's where my wins are coming. I'm 853 00:44:20,039 --> 00:44:23,360 not gonna I'm not gonna ask questions, Brian if they're 854 00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:25,679 cashing I'm just gonna I'm just gonna keep firing him in, 855 00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,840 not gonna ask questions. So going for my fifth straight 856 00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:33,039 NFL winner this Sunday, five percenter, back to back five 857 00:44:33,079 --> 00:44:37,440 percent wins in the NFL last week and going it 858 00:44:37,519 --> 00:44:40,199 going back to the to the prior week. I think 859 00:44:40,199 --> 00:44:43,000 I'm up fifteen or sixteen units roughly in the NFL 860 00:44:43,039 --> 00:44:47,400 this season. So even though I you know that league 861 00:44:47,519 --> 00:44:50,360 is again it's it's it'll likely come to an end 862 00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,719 at some point. It is. There is a reason that 863 00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:55,199 sportsbooks like like are offering you minus one oh three 864 00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:58,440 lines on NFL sides and totals. I'm not gonna complain, 865 00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,920 Well it's going good. I'm going to uh lean into it. 866 00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,360 So I have a five percent play in the NFL 867 00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,639 on Sunday that I really like. And that's what I'm 868 00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:10,320 I'm going to promote on the show. In the chat 869 00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,119 someone yeah we got rained out. Yeah that I was 870 00:45:13,159 --> 00:45:15,000 all ready to get my Mariner's money back in the 871 00:45:15,079 --> 00:45:19,199 KBO this morning and they got rained out. So we'll 872 00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,559 see what the really. The thing that sucks about that 873 00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,159 is I usually beat the number in KBO and then 874 00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:26,960 if the matchup, if it gets pushed back today the 875 00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,320 books know they like they correct, So it's like, I 876 00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:33,039 don't know if I'll have my line value. I don't 877 00:45:33,039 --> 00:45:35,199 know if I'll be able to make that same bet. 878 00:45:36,079 --> 00:45:38,679 But if I can, I'll just be betting it again. 879 00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:41,079 I don't I don't see any reason why I wouldn't 880 00:45:41,079 --> 00:45:45,000 be on that. It would be tonight technically a late 881 00:45:45,119 --> 00:45:47,760 night game, so that one I gave out for free 882 00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:50,199 on Last Call, yes or not last Call, whatever we'll 883 00:45:50,199 --> 00:45:52,559 call on the show with Joe Matt in Primetime Picks. 884 00:45:52,559 --> 00:45:55,800 I gave it out there. If you're smart, you can 885 00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,480 go into you can go into last twenty on my 886 00:45:58,519 --> 00:46:00,880 wager Talk page and just see the game that got 887 00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:03,519 rained out. That'll be the KBO play that's up for 888 00:46:03,559 --> 00:46:06,800 the night because it automatically goes there. It'll say no action, 889 00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,480 So little trick for you guys right there, and you 890 00:46:09,519 --> 00:46:12,159 know I'll actually because of that, I will likely post 891 00:46:12,199 --> 00:46:17,159 it to my free picks page. So on wager Talk, 892 00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:18,960 we all try to put up as many free picks 893 00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:22,039 as possible. You can access them all by just going 894 00:46:22,119 --> 00:46:24,559 right to the website clicking free Picks at the top 895 00:46:24,599 --> 00:46:28,280 of the site. Everyone that's got a free pick loaded 896 00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,280 will be in a nice order. You can see what 897 00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,639 people are giving away for free, and then you can 898 00:46:33,679 --> 00:46:37,559 also right underneath and see what people have for sale. 899 00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,960 We'll be back, I think we'll assuming we have games. 900 00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,400 Let me just do a quick check of the schedule. 901 00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:46,280 So basically the way Total Base is going to work 902 00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:47,719 the rest of the year. As long as there's a 903 00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:50,599 game on a given day, on a weekday, we will 904 00:46:50,679 --> 00:46:57,119 be here. So my gut tells me that Monday, you 905 00:46:57,119 --> 00:47:00,440 know what. So Monday, we'll see if there's a game 906 00:47:00,519 --> 00:47:05,079 seven in Mariners Brewer, in Mariners Blue Jays, we'll be here. 907 00:47:05,639 --> 00:47:08,320 If there's a game six and Dodgers Brewers, we'll also 908 00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:12,920 be here. With that one looks less likely, so uh, 909 00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:16,679 the shows for early next week are TBA. But if 910 00:47:16,679 --> 00:47:20,360 these two series somehow end before Monday, we'll see you 911 00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:22,400 when the when the World Series starts. So that's just 912 00:47:22,519 --> 00:47:25,000 kind of a programming note right there. But we're not 913 00:47:25,039 --> 00:47:27,519 going anywhere. We're gonna finish out the season. It's been 914 00:47:27,519 --> 00:47:29,360 a great season. I think this is our Brian. I 915 00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,559 think this is our highest view count live of the 916 00:47:32,559 --> 00:47:36,840 whole playoffs so far. So appreciate you stopping by. Hopefully 917 00:47:38,199 --> 00:47:40,760 you guys learned something today that's always the goal. Maybe 918 00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:43,559 it helped you make a bet, And I hope everyone 919 00:47:43,559 --> 00:47:46,760 has a great week at cash your tickets, enjoy the football, 920 00:47:47,079 --> 00:47:48,960 and we'll see you when we see you, hopefully Monday. 921 00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:50,960 I'd love, I'd love to come back here Monday morning 922 00:47:51,159 --> 00:47:54,119 to talk game seven Mariners, Blue Jays. That would that 923 00:47:54,159 --> 00:47:56,119 would make me happy. So hopefully we'll see you guys 924 00:47:56,119 --> 00:48:00,760 on Monday. Six