Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Friday. It is time
for total bases. Brian Leonard. I had the Mariners yesterday.
It did not go well. I'm punishing myself by wearing
this hoodie or this sweatshirt Fairfield Stags. Of course arrival
of my college, the Siena College Saints. But I also
just like the Sweatcher and they're not a real rival
because they're not going to challenge us at the top
of the league. So at any rate, we're here to
talk some baseball, me and you today. We've got two games.
Let's just get right into it. Let's go back to
that game Mariners Blue Jays. I had the Mariners yesterday, Brian,
and they didn't really show up. Once again, the bats
weren't there, and I'll tip the cap. I didn't think
Max Suers are how to do him. He pitched well,
and the Blue Jays are back in this series to too.
We head to a game five tonight. So how's your
day going? Then kick us off with Mariners Blue Jays.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I'm in the same way I stuck in baseball. Yesterday.
I had small play on the Mariners. When it got
down to all the money came in on Toronto. You
can get Seattle at home at like one seventeen. I
couldn't pass that up, So I had the small one
and a half star whatever percentage on that. Well, my
big play yesterday was Seattle's a score over one and
a half runs in the first five, which, as I said,
Sureser had gone twenty five innuing he's given up twenty
five earned runs. I thought it was a desperate situation
to throw him out there. Hats off to Max Scherzer.
He made me look like an idiot, and I feel
like an idiot is they scored one round in the
second inning and that was it. He shut him down
the rest of the way. It happens. He's a professional pitcher,
and these things happened. And I also was wrong. I go, well,
he's forty one years old. When they come out to
get him, he's you know, and he pulled his old self,
which you'd like to have. But still as a manager,
you hate to get embarrassed like that. But uh, yeah,
I was wrong. I was completely wrong. I apologize for
everybody who bought that five percent yesterday, and I'll try
to get it back. I'd been so hot in baseball
I just assumed that that was that was gonna happen,
and it didn't happen. I was wrong. Yeah, Seattle's Seattle's
bats just didn't show up again, Brian.
Speaker 1: I'll I'm right, I'm right there with you. That game
did not go as I thought it would at all.
I thought Luis Castillo would be I thought he would
at least at minimum match sureser. I felt like he
came in just the far better option he had a
he had been pitching great for a month or so,
had some nice time off between starts. But I guess
I'll go back to the kind of point I've I've made,
you know, at different points in time during the playoffs.
I did the the MGM show a couple of days ago,
and they put a they quoted me from the show
and I said something to the respect of, you know,
these series, like the series can flip on a moment's notice, right,
Like maybe not the other series we're going to talk about,
when you see that one team is out classing the other.
But even through the first two games, like to me,
there was never anything to suggest that, like these two
teams still weren't very evenly matched. Now, I didn't play
Game three. Yeah, yesterday I got the I got the
game wrong, But it was like my mindset was never, oh, like,
well Seattle's just going to come in and dominate. I
just liked how Game four set up better for them.
So it's like that. I think is is because this
is a handicapping show and we're trying to also talk about,
you know, just our thought process and how we approach
these games in this series and almost any of these
Playoffs series. I'm still it's almost like a reset every day, right,
It's like a fresh slate. I'm still looking at the
game for what the game is, for, who the two
starting pitchers are, what the usage is from out of
the bull pen. I will I will say though, I
do think being up to oh kept me off the
Mariners game in Game three, which I'm kind of happy
about because they obviously lost Game three. I'll just throw
it over to you, is is does your process vary
from that at all in the Playoffs, because like it's
it's I think it's an interesting conversation.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you on that. I went with
just the over in game three, and I my first
thing I thought of with this this last game, I said, well,
seven and a half. I said, you got to play
the over. I wish I had one of my initial thought,
but yeah, you got to look at your sister. Like
yesterday I talked about in the game, I said, this
is this is the Brewers one game where I think
they have a chance. And I used the Brewers as
a free play and it looked pretty good when it
was one to one. But the better team and the
healthier team came out, the healthier pitching staff came out
and won that game. And but now that it's three
and all, it's gonna be tough for the Brewers to
go at this point. So yeah, it matters a lot
of what happened in the last game, which kind of
sucks because we've tried to put ourself up as early
as possible. The show is that, you know, like I said,
six am out here in Pacific the Hockey Show, a
lot of times they'll want my player ahead and not
from the night before. I don't know what's happened, but
they got to set up the graphics and the whole bit.
So yeah, your mind changes based on what happened in
the prior game, and as it should.
Speaker 1: Well, Brian, it's certainly how the market teams to work, right, Like,
maybe not after one game, but it does seem like
if after you get two results, and I'll make this
parallel to the game that we're going to talk about
right now, it seems like after you get two results
that go a certain way, that's when the shift occurs.
And that's what we're seeing here. So the Mariners, they've
now this will be their third home game, they've lost
the first two. In the first two games, it was
a minus one one, minus one twenty five. Yesterday I
jumped into I couldn't. I sat there all day and
then when it got down to minus one fourteen, I
had to grab it yesterday. Now you're looking at the
Mariners as a slight underdog at home. So do you
think that that's an overreaction or do you think this
matchup warrant the Blue Jays being a slight favor on
the road.
Speaker 2: Well, we're looking at right now according to the Odds
Logic website, which I just rolled out of bed just
again today, bad day. H gotsit's going against Miller and
you're right, got Gossman's about a one to ten favorite
here total of about seven seven. But it's one twenty
to the over a little bit. Well, Gotsman is more
established than Miller is. Miller did have a good star
last time out, and he's had a lot of bad
starts before that. So yeah, any time he scored, his
money runs as Toronto has scored the last two days,
you're expect money to come that way. So I'm not
surprised that Toronto's favorite. And it is the lesser of
the starters for Seattle, whereas it's probably your best starter
for Toronto. So yeah, it makes sense that Toronto would
be favored in this one.
Speaker 1: So you know, I guess as far as the game
is concerned and kind of so this is this is
where I sort of I think makes betting postseason baseball
so challenging, right, is that you're in a series. It's
no different than the regular season, where you've got teams
that you know play series, right, Like, that's the one
nice thing about baseball as opposed to some of the
other sports I think is you know, you're not that
you get to a postseason in like the NBA or
the NHL, And it's kind of like this four in
oh Okay. So we've been traveling all over the country
now we're going to play a team seven times in
the span of however, right like, however many days baseball
this is, this is kind of the norm playing a
team three or four times. But like so for me,
the last two days, I've liked Seattle the last two
days that that's just where my handicap landed. The last
two days they've lost. Starting pitching dictates a lot of
what the handicap is. I look here and say, okay,
you know, I played Bryce Miller and I cashed my
game one bet on the Mariners plus one and a half.
This was the pitching matchup. This was the pitching matchup
Bryce Miller on the mound. I was getting a run
in a half though, and I felt like, given the situation,
that was good value and that he could be good
enough going into this matchup. Though I look at the
stat past page, there's a lot to be concerned with
in my opinion. Suddenly the Mariners aren't hitting, which is
also a concern, and I think, I mean, I think
Gosvin's just the better option. So even this is the
challenge for me personally is like I want to you know,
part of me wants to be stubborn and say, well,
the Mariners get it today, right, like I was wrong
about them in Game three and Game four. They got
to get it here. But then I look at this
matchup and I'm like, well that my my numbers like
the Jays. My brain tells me Gossmin is the superior
starter to Miller, and suddenly the Blue Jays are hitting.
So it's like that that, you know, if let's just
say game three and Game four and my brain never happened, right,
Like I didn't have I didn't have to sit there
miserable last night and watch my Mariner's bet lose and
go up in flames. I'm probably on the Blue Jays here,
but I did have to experience that, And now I'm
sitting here like do I am? I just gonna look
like a fool coming out and betting the Blue Jays
and then the Mariners show up in game five. That's
I guess the challenge of betting playoff baseball and probably
why I won't be on this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's also guys that have faced the opponent before.
In Pat Miller, you know he's at two playoff, He's
struggled dirt reggage season. We all know that. But he's
at two playoff games. He went against the Tigers, gave
up two runs and four and a third not bad,
only four hits, no walks, oh zero point nine two whips.
So he pitched pretty well in that one. And then
he faced this Toronto team up in Toronto in US
six innings, give up one honed run, two hits. He
did struggle with his walks. He had three walks in
that game, only three strikeouts. He has not been dominant
from the strikeout perspective. He's only struck out five guys
in the playoffs and ten and the third innings. Usually,
when you see a team that just saw that starter recently,
I like to go opposite of what happened earlier. And granted,
Galsman pitched pretty well in his game. I believe he
gave up two runs when he faced Seattle, but I
wouldn't expect another start out of that like Miller had
in this in his last time. From a hitting standpoint,
both these teams are very good hitting teams. You're still
looking at that seven on the total, and since both
teams have seen these pitchers and both pitchers had success
against them before, I hate to go back to the
over but hey, if it ain't broken, that's the way
I would take a look at this. I would think
Toronto would have a little bit more success against Miller
this time. So yeah, Toronto, team total over the game
total over seems to be the way I would look
at this one. Uh, Seattle's got to be a little
bit shocked because they've been a really good team at
home all year long, just as Toronto has, and yet
nobody has won a home game in this series of fact.
I believe last night the Dodgers went at home was
the first one in the round of the playoffs where
the home team has won. So I always say that
the home the home field doesn't have nearly the advantage
in any sport when you get to the playoffs because
the teams that are there are good, they've won on
the road before, and so it's less of a home
advantage during the playoffs as it is for the for
the regular season. So uh, I, after as bad as
my pick was yesterday, I'm a little self shocked myself
in that regard. But still I've seen nothing to think
that this game is going to go under the total.
I think the over is probably the way of play this.
Speaker 1: Three straight overs so far in this series all pretty
much easy. I mean the game two and Game three
were over by a mile even yesterday. I mean it
kind of gets there with some room despair. I'm from
a number standpoint. Seven is too light like that to
me when you look at some of the struggles Miller's had.
The fact that, like you know, I pulled Gossman's lineup
from Game one, he bitched pretty good five and two thirds.
He still gave up two runs on three hits. It's
not that the Mariners couldn't get to him. Yeah, that
seven flat seems very well like the fact that you
could the fact that you could get to three to
three and have a free role opportunity seems like almost
too good to be true in a game like this.
So the more we kind of talk about it back
and forth. From just from a straight up numbers value
perspective on the total, I would have to say you
have to play over seven, especially if it's like minus
one ten, minus one fifteen, which it does appear to
be right now, you really like it. I think they're
gonna look at it, and people are gonna look at
it and say, well, these two teams, these two pitchers,
and these two teams faced off in Game one and
it was a three to one final. But that was
like a much, in my opinion, a much different scenario
than this game. On the same token, Brian, you had
game one, you had Kevin Gosman was like a dollar
seventy five dollars eighty favorite at one point in this
same pitching matchup in game one. I mean, it really
was not a maybe. It was a competitive game and
the Mariners just happened to end up on the right
side of a three to one game. So so now
Gossmin's now you're now he's only minus one ten, same matchup.
We're gonna move that seventy cents in the matter of
a couple of days. I actually think the JS and
the over are the value you here, and I just
don't know if I can I can stomach either, but
I think that's where the value is in this game.
Speaker 2: You can find Gospan out there right now at about well,
let's just the Toronto team total over at three and
a half even money or basically even money just about
everywhere right now. So if Toronto has four runs, I
think it accomplishes both and the way Miller's pitch for
most of the year, that would that would be something
to take a look at. But once again, because Toronto
has had the lead the last couple of games, the
Seattle bullpen is in pretty good shape. But that's maybe
maybe first half with first step deep total over yesterday
I got burned. But that might not be a bad situation. Here,
let me check that out right here.
Speaker 1: Well, you check that out. While you check that out,
throw it out there, like, yes, the Seattle bullpen hasn't
been used. But when the Blue Jays are hitting, and
they are now, I think we can now officially say
they're hitting. I mean, this lineup one to nine is
going to be able to make some noise against just
about anyone. Like yeah, maybe if they get into the
ninth inning and it's Immunos coming in and slam the door.
I'm like, Okay, I'm a little bit worried about the
Jays against the Mariners bullpen. Anyone else not that concerned
with with when the jit when this lineup is clicking
one to nine, Uh, that's that's really something that I
think you're gonna if the Blue Jays win this series,
we get to the World Series and you look back
on how things went for them. You're gonna look at
the bottom of that order, guys like Ernie Clement Andres
Jimenez and the at bats they put together, and you're
just like one through nine, there's no breaks in this lineup.
That that is a kind of like the mark of
a championship team in my opinion a little bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the first half Toronto team total is one and
a half over minus one twenty five and one minus
one thirty. That was That's a better line than what
we saw yesterday with sure, so I believe I had
delay one fifty in that regard. So, yeah, any of
those ways to play this game, either the team team
totals over for saffer game and the game total over
is the way I would look at it. I'm not yeah, yeah,
that's it. That's it. Yeah, that's way I would look
at it.
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I'm at about seven point eight
on the total. So the fact that you can get
a flat seven I think is good value. That's probably
the best of anything in that game that I think
we've talked about. I think that's flat seven. It is
really nice value on the total. I want to go
to the chat for a second. Great question here. I
think it's worth especially since we have a little extra
time and a two game show. Think it's worth some attention.
Jersey Tugging Sports in the chat says, can you explain
how to use the Odds logic screen? Brian Leonard, Let's
say you look at it. What does money come that
way mean? And what it means and what it means
when the odds change. I'll throw it to you. I
think this is more like general like how to read
an odd screen, which it will will kind of sort
of come with experience using the site. Uh do you
do you have? I guess can you? Can? You throw him?
Just some general tips as to how to read the
Odds logic screen.
Speaker 2: Sure. First of all, you can rearrange any books you
want on here, and which is what I do. I
I put to the left the places where I have
bet and I've struggled, I haven't had a lot of profit.
I put on the right the weaker books. You know,
your your DraftKings, your fandels, your ESPN bets, and also
all the places I've had success. So if you see
one half where for example, well, quick a quick look
at the right. Now if you're watching it right now.
We've got in the w or excuse me, in the
NBA preseason. We're looking in Minnesota, Philadelphia. The Sharper books
are about to nineteen on the total, and some of
the others are a little bit different. You're looking at DraftKings,
you're looking at ESPN bet and you can bet MGM
basically Vantul two nineteen and a half. Well now, HERODAG
just went down to two eighteen. So the sharp books
are telling you that should be under. And what you
want to do is you want to look across you say, ooh,
Fandels Vandels got a certain number out there to nineteen
and a half to the under. So it's early. I
wouldn't look at it this way now because it's so
early and none of the big money's come in. But
as the day goes on, you could see where the
move lines are moving at certain books, and if it's
the sharp books, those are the ones where you by
that time of the day when they're getting the bigger
money in, you could take a look at that and say, hey,
I think this that's where this is going. If you
already like that side, you can take the number at
the other place and get a little bit better number
than what's available the Sharper books. But yeah, it's telling
you what they brought in. And I've talked in the
past about certain certain books being being places that really
every sport, there's certain places that I don't I don't
bet soccer, I don't follow soccer, don't know anything about it.
But there's certain books out there. And Carmine is a
soccer guy. You can always ask him that what books
are the ones that are the sharp books and soccer
and you can take a look at that because there's
a lot of these places don't bring in a lot
of money like here in Vegas for the most part,
I don't think they bring in a lot of money
in soccer, so you can maybe play the local Vegas books.
But that's what I look at. And if I see
all the Sharper books, at least for me that I
consider sharp, going one direction and the lesser books that
I've had success in not moving it yet I can
go in there and grab a good number.
Speaker 1: Great stuff. And that adologic screen is very helpful. Like
here's the thing, like any other any of the products
out there, the more you sort of use it and
and trial and error, asking questions is absolutely the way
to go. You'll just kind of get used to it.
And any product like that, I've used it. It really just
takes time kind of using it and figuring it out.
But I think, I mean, I feel like I've seen
them all at this point, and I'm very impressed with
odds logic. I think it's great. So uh and at
for the for the cost, it's like a kind of
a no brainer is relative to like what some of
the other products out there costs, so a very good option. Yeah, No,
that's that would Uh, that was great, Brian. Let's uh,
let's continue on. We have a we have another uh,
we have another game to talk about here. Believe it
or not, the series is still going on. It feels
like as I watch it, it's like, oh, it's like
a foregone conclusion that it's ending. But hey, you know what,
there's something to be said for, Like it's a new day.
The score is zero zero, the Brewers still get to
come out and play baseball today. It's for they pulled
a fast one on me. I thought we were gonna
se Jose Quintana yesterday. They made the move to go
to Miserski after the opener and that move, I mean
it backfired, but hey, the Dodgers just continue to play
great ball. I didn't think the Brewers necessarily played I
don't think the Brewers have necessarily played poorly. They're just
running into the best team in the league, playing great ball,
getting great efforts from all of their pitchers. What do
you even do there, Brian, Like, you know what, we
almost just have to tip the cap. But at the
same token, it's a new day. Do you have any
faith in Milwaukee getting back in this series tonight?
Speaker 2: Yeah? You mentioned the Quintana situation, and as I said
on the Hockey Show yesterday, as they changed goalies on
one of my free plays the day before, you can
only go with the information you have, and Quintana was
supposed to be the guy, the bulkaning guy. Yesterday when
Miserski came in, I thought Miszeroski pitched very well, dominating strikeouts,
didn't didn't have the walk problems that he had in
the past. The last two times out, he's taken a
little bit off of his fastball and it's worked for him.
So I'm excited about his future with Milwaukee. I'm sure
they are too, because if you can get a guy
that throws can blow it by somebody like he can,
and he can control it a little bit better than
what he's had in the minors and somewhat in the majors,
it's something to look forward to. We had mentioned off
air all the pitchers that Milwaukee has had, and they
were so many grid starters all year long, and now
they'd come up with injuries and some guys have missed
and the Dodgers the opposite. The Dodgers all season long
struggled with their rotation, had a lot of guys in there,
but now their best guys are all healthy. So if
this series had been played a month ago, I may
have had a different outcome. But right now you're looking
at the Dodgers with their full starting rotation out there
in Milwaukee at this point, just trying to find somebody
who can get him some innings. It's it's undecided right
now who the starter is, but it'll probably be a
one inning guy coming in as an opener. It won't
be Ashby again. Uh, he's pitched three the last four days.
But we will see, like like you said, we will
see a little bit of Jose Quintana. I have more
faith than Quatana than a lot of people do. But
I don't know if I want Milwaukee in this game.
We're looking at Otani's on the mound and he has
not done anything with the bats, So I, knowing his
personality and the way he works, I would expect him
to be on in this In this game from a
pitching standpoint, at least he can help his team. You're
looking at about one one eighty five to one ninety
out there for the Dodgers right now, total of eight
slightly to the under, seven and a half slightly to
the over. I said yesterday that game for Milwaukee was
the one they needed to have. They used Miserowski for
seventy three pitches. They had you Rebay out there. He
pitches now pitched three out of the last four games.
He's been their closure lately. They don't really trust McGill,
who's coming back from injury and conig through twenty four Ashby,
as I mentioned, it's throwing three out of the last
four days. So they're going to lose a little bit
of the back end of the bullpen in that. But
you know the Dodgers. You take a look at what
the Dodgers have done. And obviously the closure came out
yesterday and he looked great again. You had one little
miss step. He's the first pitcher in history to have
no saves in the regular season and have three saves
in the playoffs. Sazaki's pitched great, but they did use
four or five bullpen arms yesterday. I had she and
warming up in the bullpen. I really like she and
I think he's got a really good future for this team.
But they've got they've got quality guys. Casper right is
out there, Kershaw. They haven't used them in the playoffs
as have yet, so the Dodgers are pretty well set.
They had the last two days, didn't need them at all,
and they've got to, in my opinion, a pretty good
pitching advantage here. And it's clear now that Will Smith
will catch every game, and that means that the Brewers
will not be able to steal bases. And the way
pitching's gone for the Dodgers, they've got to get on
base and they haven't had many hits. So only one
way for me to look in this game, and that
would be all Twani and the Dodgers. And normally a
team is down three nothing in the playoffs. I think
they're done. But this Milwaukee team, if you follow them
all year long, how many times would we expect or
were we expecting them to have a letdown or this
is the time that they're gonna let the opposition back in. No,
they've been full bore all year long. But some of
the looks and some of the comments out of this
Milwaukee the players, the interviews are the players. They're saying
what they're supposed to say, but the tone in their voice,
looks on our faces are like they're shell shocked. And
it's not a team I want to play right now.
So it'll be the Dodgers or nothing for me, and
I'll look to play something for the Dodgers, but I
don't want to lay two dollars in the game. So
that's how I would look at it.
Speaker 1: All right. Let me let me make the counter argument
just for argument's sake here, since we're trying to break
down the game and do it from all angles, like,
so a couple of things here, someone asked in the chat.
Of course I somehow managed to lose the comment. Not
sure how I clicked off of that, but anyway, they said,
they said, you know something to the extent of like
you know, who's the starter for the Brewers. They haven't
really been announcing their starters. So yeah, that, like I
said in the open, that took me for for me
for a little bit of a loop. Yesterday. I thought
they would probably use Katana. They didn't. They went mis
Zeroski in Game three after an opener. It will be
Jose Quintana today as as from a from a standpoint
of he's going to throw the most innings at least
unless they unless Pat Murphy has you know, a surprise
for us that no one expects, like he's likely going
to be the person that throws the ball at the
innings today. Now, I assume he's just gonna start because
he's a lefty and and the idea is the only,
the only, really time, the only really reason to use
an opener if you're the Brewers against the Dodgers like
an Ashby like yesterday, is to bring in the lefty
to face Otani and Freeman before you bring in your
right handed starter. So with the fact that Quintana is
a lefty, I don't see any reason for the Brewers
to use an opener. It's likely just gonna be Quintana
and then they'll go from there. So I'm gonna go
back to the last series if you if you look
at who the Dodger struggled with a little bit against
the Phillies, it was Ranger Suarez after he came in
in Game three after Aaron Nola five innings of one
run ball. You know, he's kind of a lefty that
I'm not saying Quintana is better than him by any means,
but they throw some of the same stuff. I think
they have some of the same idea in terms of
how they they want to attack opposing hitters. And then
the following day was of course the day that the
Phillies ended up losing an extra innings. That was Christopher Sanchez,
who pitched a pretty good game. He went six and
a third one run on five hits. So the Dodgers
like against that. I'm not saying Quintana is those two.
I certainly think Suarez and Sanchez are better, but he's
a veteran and they've got, you know, almost the same
thing with Max Scherzer almost supplies here to Quintana like
he's been around forever. The moment is not going to
be too big for him right, and if he's going
out there and executing his pitches, he can turn in
a start that looks like one of those starts from
the Phillies last round when they're two lefties did very
well against this lineup. Now, the other thing that I
think you have to note here is Otani when he pitches,
his numbers are worse. So if you're looking at the Dodgers,
it's not like I mean, it's not like the Dodgers
have absolutely knocked the cover off the ball in this series.
It's been very much pitching that's won the Dodgers these games.
First game, Game one, they scored two runs, ended up
winning two to one. Game two, they kind of tacked
on here and there, but it was like a two
out hit. I think it was a two out. It
was a solo home run followed by a couple two
out hits to get the lead in Game two. And
then last night's game is three to one. So you know,
it's not like the Dodgers are out here playing Beer
League softball, Brian, where it's ten eleven runs and everyone's hitting.
They're just doing enough just to win. And so to me,
it's like you're gonna probably lower Otani's value from an
offensive standpoint with the fact that he's on the mount.
Now you gotta look at lineups. I assume Will Smith
will be behind the dish. But hey, three games in
three days, you got a three to nothing lead in
the series. Does he decide maybe? Does maybe he say, well,
we'll throw him a day off. Probably not, but it's
it's I guess it's something to keep an eye on.
I don't think this is the worst matchup for the Brewers.
And then I start to look at the market and
I'm hoping that everyone else has the same thought process
of like, wow, this is over. Dodgers are nothing like
it can't possibly go any other way, because I think
it just came down ten to fifteen cents. I'd be
down to take a shot with Brewers plus one and
a half. You're getting the road team, you get the
extra at that se these games, even though these games
really have been close, I mean it's been Dodgers tacking
on runs all three games. It was a close game
where the Dodgers just kind of tacked on a run.
Even Game one was a one nothing game, they score
to nothing, they win two to one. So I think
the best thing on the board for me today, at
least as it stands right now, is Brewers plus one
and a half. And I'm hoping that the as the
masses start to wake up, I know, shout out to
Brian Leonard again. He does the show at six am
West Coast time every morning, and I see every time
we do this show, as the show goes on, I
see I see the viewer count go up, and I
think it's because for two reasons. I think, you know,
maybe we do have some live viewers in here, but
the West Coast people start to wake up. And when
the West Coast people start to wake up, and as
the day goes on and they start to bet, it's
playoff baseball. It's probably the one time of the year
where the betting public can sort of influence the number,
maybe a little bit more. I don't think the pub,
the betting public's ever influencing a number in the regular season,
but with the postseason handle, I feel like it works
more like a like a standalone football game in a sense.
If it's just an influx of Dodgers money and this
Brewer's line moves a little bit and suddenly I can
get plus one and a half at let's say minus
one twenty minus one fifteen, that might be where your
boy ends up today. I something's telling me the Brewers
might have one in them at least an effort. And
if they give an effort and they lose by one,
your cash and your ticket anyway. So that's my counter
to your argument right there, Brian.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's six point thirty. I know in Vegas the
sportsbooks don't actually open until but they do. They all
have chaosques and have telephone accounts, but they're limited. You
you can't get as much in at this time of
the day as you could later. That's not going to
affect the general public, but it will affect the guys
who were betting for a living. So that will be
come later on, So you'll see that later on. I
went back and looked at Quinn and he did pitch
three innings against the Cubs in the playoffs on the
on the eighth, and he was it was very good. Then.
His last start in in the regular season was August fourteenth,
he threw four innings against the Cardinals, so he hasn't
pitched a lot lately. They do throw on the side
and all, so that made it's not a huge deal,
but we saw Shares are coming back from a big
layoff and look good yesterday. The thing that got me
was that I was wrong about was his velocity because
he was more arrested. I didn't give that enough credit
because he's throwing two miles an hour faster yesterday than
it had been his last few starts. But yeah, I'm
not I'm not gonna change my opinion on the game,
which isn't much. But yeah, good, good breakdown. But I
just haven't seen enough out of this Milwaukee team. Now.
If they're in the game and they have a big inning,
let's say they score three in the first or second,
then they then they may wake up and say, hey,
you know this is our game, and you'll see the
old Brewers. But right now, that's that's atainus a little
bit shell shocked. I believe I'm.
Speaker 1: Gonna go to a comment here. We've got a lot
of viewers here, and I want to take some questions
from the chat all we have time. I got to
disagree with this one, but I think it's I think
a lot of people don't understand why teams use an opener.
So I'm gonna try to explain this, and then you
can you can counter so using an openers dumb. Dodgers
went left, right, left yesterday to counter that move. Okay,
so yes, the Dodgers had a he and I guess
an answer for anything that Bruce was gonna was gonna do.
But now I'm gonna were going to bring up Collins
question just as the second part of as a Collins
statement at best. Kintanago's five. Okay. The reason that you
use an opener, and the reason it's not dumb, is
because you you're basically saying, I know that this starting
pitcher is gonna go probably only go four or five innings.
I know at some point we are going to need
to use a reliever in a big spot against the
Dodgers' best hitters. So what these teams are doing? Shout
out lou Panella. I think he was the one that
figured this out when he was with the Ras. Was like,
I'm gonna take my best reliever and put them in
the situation that they might be in the fifth or
sixth inning, and I'm gonna do it in the first inning.
The reason it's not dumb, it's more it's something out
of necessity. Brian, Like, if I go to the gym,
okay me. If I go to the gym and I
throw weights on the bench press, like, you can bet
I'm having someone spot me because I'm just not strong
enough to be banging out bench press, is no problem.
Not kill myself. Okay. It's kind of like baseball. If
you got Tarik Skouble, you're not really worried about the
spot or you're like, no problem, go go rep one
P fifty or whatever you got on the bar there,
you're good. Okay. If you got Yamamoto or something like that,
you're good. That's not a problem. We expect you to
go seven when you don't, when you have someone that
you don't trust to go more than four or five innings,
or that the plan is not to go more than
four or five innings, the opener makes complete sense because
you are now guaranteeing you are guaranteeing that you get
the matchup with your reliever, the one that you want
against the hitters that you wanted to get. So that
is why teams have adopted that team's more of a
widespread thing. Teams have adopted the opener, and that's why
as a better you actually I think you sort of
like having the opener because it's it's basically you're you
go into the game knowing, okay, at least okay, I
know Ashby is a lefty. Now again it backfire yesterday,
but you're you're going into the game knowing, I'm gonna
get Ashby here, who's been a pretty good lefty relief
against two left handed hitters, right Like, you know that's
what you're gonna get. I actually I found myself gravitating
toward betting on sides that have the opener where I
know the guy coming in after him is someone I like.
So that's just my comment to that. I don't. I
actually think it's that. It's the opposite. I think it's
sort of genius. And yeah, every once in a while
it's going to a back player, but I would say
it works more often than not.
Speaker 2: Well, Toronto or Tampa Bay was the team that started it.
And yeah, granted it's frustrating. It's more frustrating from a
betting standpoint because you I've been around for doing this
for forty five years. You know to bet list your
starters because if all of a sudden they make a
change and you don't want that guy in there, so
you're stuck with that line. So that's something that's happened
years ago when they didn't have such a thing such
as the starters or the opener. Excuse me, but Tampa
Bay did it, and Tampa Bay is one of the
smartest organizations baseball. Then other team started to doing the
copy of it. The reason why Milwaukee does it is,
let's just take a look at Otani. This is this
is regular season, this is before this slump in the playoffs.
He's basically had twice as many played appearances against Reddies
then lefties. So all you really have to do is
double up his numbers against lefties to show you the
differential between lefties and righties. First of all, the ops
against lefties eight ninety eight, the ops against rheties ten
seventy seven, almost two hundred points higher in that regard,
slugging five point fifty four against lefties six sixty six
or sixty sixty one. Slugging on base percentage three forty four,
four sixteen. The way they really He's had fifteen home
runs in two hundred and forty four at bats against lefties.
He's had forty home runs and four hundred and eighty three.
So if you were to double home runs basically is
what we've done and everything else, he would have thirty
home runs versus lefties, forty home runs versus righties. That's
a big reason to bring a lefty in there. And
you do bring a lefty in there because that's one
less a bat that he's going to have against the
guy pitching, and that gives the if Milwaukee's using a
right hander in this game, that's one less tanya bet
that he has to face. And most hitters the lefty right.
I know a lot of people don't like the left
e right. There's a reason why the teams that do
the lefty righty splits have all had a lot of success.
Look at Cleveland, look at Tampa Bay. There's Minnesota, to
a pretty good extent, does a lot of that. But
the teams that do it have had success over the
years with lower payroll teams. Now you get a team
like say the Doctors, want to do something like that,
a huge payroll team, or the Yankees. They don't do
a lot of that. The Yankees a little bit more
than what the Dodgers do from a pitching standpoint. But
when you've got the excellent starters the Dodgers have, you
don't need to do that. But when you're a lower
level team from you can't afford the players that the
Dodgers do, The Brewers have to do that, and the
other teams do it. It makes the teams more competitive.
And anytime you can make a team that's not nearly
paying the players as much as the other teams are,
you've got to find ways to do it. And that's
one of the ways that they have done it over
the last few years. And even in the sportsbooks now
a lot of times where you used to have to
specify the starting pitchers, you've got to do that now.
And it doesn't automatically come that way. You've got to
hit a button to specify them, as opposed before you
had to specify No, no, you're not back in all
the starters there. So times have changed. A lot of
us don't like change, but it's I believe it's for
the better of the lesser teams in baseball. I mean,
it's made the league more competitive over the ears if
you just discount teams like Colorado Rockies.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and David says, if it isn't dumb, then then
why hasn't been the norm in the regular season. It
is the norm. There's like probably one or two games
a day that minimum, at least one or two a
day that are using an opener. And it's not that
it really is just out of necessity and the reason
that you're seeing it so often. Starting pitchers are just
unicorns now. They're just the way that these kids throw,
the way that that the the demand on the pitcher's body,
and the way that they throw. You're just not finding
many guys that can go out consistently throw six or
seven innings and not get hurt. So it's like, I
don't think I truly don't think any team wants to
use an opener. Okay, I don't think any team's out
there like, yeah, I can't wait to try Andy Ashby
out there for an inning. Right here, it is totally
something they do out of necessity, and the Brewers have
gotten themselves into a position where like they just don't
have they don't have starters right now. Wood Drift hurt,
a couple other guys hurt, and then the ones they
do have are not guys that they want to they
want another team to see a third time through the order,
so it's the lesser of two evils. It's do we
start the game with this guy, have them go three
innings and bring our guy in, or do we start
the game traditional and under and know that we might
be in the bullpen in the fourth or fifth inning.
That I think is just a judgment call and the coach.
I don't think there's a right or wrong answer. I
think it just it's just the way that some guys
play it as opposed to others. I do think so
the person in the chat that asked about Miserawski, it's
probably a case by case, person by person basis. Like
some guys have have thrived coming in after the opener,
like guys that have. Colin Ray was one where I
felt like as a starter he wasn't great, but you
gave him an inning to chill and bring him after
the opener and he was awesome. Priester had a really
good run this year for a long time coming in
after the opener. So again I don't I don't know
there's a rhyme or reason to it, but I do
think it's more of a necessity thing, and and that's
just you know, it's a good conversation. We had a
few minutes to chat, but but I would not I
don't think a team using an opener should be putting
you off playing that team. That's that's sometimes where I
think the people gloss over the handicap and they're like, oh, well,
this guy is starting. It's like, you need to know
that that's not the starter. You need to know that
the starter is Quinquintana or whoever it's going to be.
That's how you should be basic. Your your handicap should
be based off the guy that's pitching bulk and so
I think during the regular season there's a lot of
value if you if you sort of know and can
kind of track what teams are going to do with
their pitching, because oftentimes they just throw a number out
based on whoever that opener is. Okay, we have we
have sort of beat these two games to death, talked
about openers, talked about odds logic. Try to give you
forty five minutes of good betting content even though there's
only two games with the last two minutes. Brian Leonard,
do you have anything to promote for today?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got this is the Friday college football been
on a tremendous ground. I believe twelve and four in
college football, I've got two plays up on this limited
card on Friday out of the four games still working
on the Saturday card, I've got one play up there
now with more to come. And hockey. Yesterday I split
out in hockey after sweeping the day before, So hockey's
going very well. Baseball had gone well till that damn
five starry yesterday. But everything's up the right there. They
do have that great weekend special, weekend Warrior special. We
can get all of our football plays. That's a great
week to take care of that. I'll have a lot
of plays up. I've got an NFL play up already,
and you've already got probably my best baseball play. So
if I do put that up, no need to buy
that is. I will be using the over in the
tront again.
Speaker 1: I it makes me laugh because it's the will. I
will joke that it's like a market that's borderline impossible
to beat long term. NFL very very tough market to beat,
But right now that's where my wins are coming. I'm
not gonna I'm not gonna ask questions, Brian if they're
cashing I'm just gonna I'm just gonna keep firing him in,
not gonna ask questions. So going for my fifth straight
NFL winner this Sunday, five percenter, back to back five
percent wins in the NFL last week and going it
going back to the to the prior week. I think
I'm up fifteen or sixteen units roughly in the NFL
this season. So even though I you know that league
is again it's it's it'll likely come to an end
at some point. It is. There is a reason that
sportsbooks like like are offering you minus one oh three
lines on NFL sides and totals. I'm not gonna complain,
Well it's going good. I'm going to uh lean into it.
So I have a five percent play in the NFL
on Sunday that I really like. And that's what I'm
I'm going to promote on the show. In the chat
someone yeah we got rained out. Yeah that I was
all ready to get my Mariner's money back in the
KBO this morning and they got rained out. So we'll
see what the really. The thing that sucks about that
is I usually beat the number in KBO and then
if the matchup, if it gets pushed back today the
books know they like they correct, So it's like, I
don't know if I'll have my line value. I don't
know if I'll be able to make that same bet.
But if I can, I'll just be betting it again.
I don't I don't see any reason why I wouldn't
be on that. It would be tonight technically a late
night game, so that one I gave out for free
on Last Call, yes or not last Call, whatever we'll
call on the show with Joe Matt in Primetime Picks.
I gave it out there. If you're smart, you can
go into you can go into last twenty on my
wager Talk page and just see the game that got
rained out. That'll be the KBO play that's up for
the night because it automatically goes there. It'll say no action,
So little trick for you guys right there, and you
know I'll actually because of that, I will likely post
it to my free picks page. So on wager Talk,
we all try to put up as many free picks
as possible. You can access them all by just going
right to the website clicking free Picks at the top
of the site. Everyone that's got a free pick loaded
will be in a nice order. You can see what
people are giving away for free, and then you can
also right underneath and see what people have for sale.
We'll be back, I think we'll assuming we have games.
Let me just do a quick check of the schedule.
So basically the way Total Base is going to work
the rest of the year. As long as there's a
game on a given day, on a weekday, we will
be here. So my gut tells me that Monday, you
know what. So Monday, we'll see if there's a game
seven in Mariners Brewer, in Mariners Blue Jays, we'll be here.
If there's a game six and Dodgers Brewers, we'll also
be here. With that one looks less likely, so uh,
the shows for early next week are TBA. But if
these two series somehow end before Monday, we'll see you
when the when the World Series starts. So that's just
kind of a programming note right there. But we're not
going anywhere. We're gonna finish out the season. It's been
a great season. I think this is our Brian. I
think this is our highest view count live of the
whole playoffs so far. So appreciate you stopping by. Hopefully
you guys learned something today that's always the goal. Maybe
it helped you make a bet, And I hope everyone
has a great week at cash your tickets, enjoy the football,
and we'll see you when we see you, hopefully Monday.
I'd love, I'd love to come back here Monday morning
to talk game seven Mariners, Blue Jays. That would that
would make me happy. So hopefully we'll see you guys
on Monday. Six