Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It's Monday morning. It's time
for full court press. Robino.
Speaker 2: I saw you last prior to going to Allen Field House,
and it's like that, that's you know, there's there's life before,
there's life before you go there, and then there's life
after you go there. So I'm a changed person since
we last, since we last spoke. On Saturday, I got
to go to the Kansas BYU game. Not the outcome
that I was hoping for as someone with b YU
plus four and a half, though they almost got there
at the very end. But but what a tremendous experience.
That was a much better day for me. Yesterday I
swept yesterday three and oh so all in all, a
good weekend. There's no way your weekend could have been
good as good as mine because you did not go
to allen Field House.
Speaker 1: But how was your weekend aside from that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, wait a minut, how about Schaefitz because Saint Louis
was rocking on Friday night they destroys.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Tula, listen, Tulsa was great yesterday I got uh.
Both had had tremendous crowds. Both those are two teams
and I'll say this to if you can get to
a Saint Louis game or a Tulsa game in the
next month, you should absolutely try to do so. Like,
if you're in the Midwest somewhere and it's a couple
hour drive to yourself a favor, go watch that Saint
Louis team play in person. Go watch Tulsa play in person.
Two tremendous offensive teams and both Like I was so
impressed with the game like production from Tulsa yesterday.
Speaker 1: Just like that.
Speaker 2: That was like the sort of pleasant surprise of the
weekend for me in terms of like all the places
I went. I knew Alan field House was gonna be insane,
and it was. The crowd at Saint Louis on Friday
night was awesome. I knew that was sold out. What
I was not expecting was like six or seven thousand
people to show up at the Tulsa game and all
of the different stuff they had, just like production wise
for that game, the light show, like they it was awesome.
So yeah, those are two teams though that I mean,
if you can get to one of those games this year,
I think both Robino could make potentially make some noise
in March.
Speaker 1: So, yeah, it was a good weekend.
Speaker 3: Yeah. C Then let's go back to how the weekend went.
You had a three and oh yesterday I had a
two and one. So for anybody who was on board,
we'll start early here the double, the CBB firepower package.
You got five and one yesterday on Saturday, Adam, I
believe I was five and three in college hoop on Saturday.
Real heartbreaker on Saturday, where I would have had all
five top play winners. I had USC over seventy eight
and a half. And what happened in the last five
minutes of that game is a sixteen point lead and
you have seventy four points with about five to go,
and you can't score five points the rest of the way,
even though Rutgers closed the gap and you can get
to the free throw line. But it was crazy. USC
just never really had any chances. I don't know how
to explain it, but that aside, we had a good weekend.
Friday night, obviously two and zero had the Saint Louis
team total over. I forget what we left here for
the parlay. Oh it was Sacred Heart. Sacred Heart dropped
another ninety plus on Quinnipiac that night. So great weekend overall.
If I calculate that in my head real quick, that's
four and one, five and three, that's nine and four
over the weekend college hoops so again, weekend package, three
day package, double the CBB firepower fifty nine bucks for
three days and Adam, like you said, off to a
huge start in February.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a good weekend. We have people have
now filed in. I was trying to just kind of
chat it up for a couple of minutes because it
looked like the stream wasn't going.
Speaker 1: But the stream is up.
Speaker 2: The count of people here has increased, so I think
it's time to get into it. Rob not a huge
slate tonight, but we have one game that absolutely deserves
the attention.
Speaker 1: You know, should should.
Speaker 2: Probably be the game that's on your main screen come
nine pm Eastern time tonight. The Kansas Jayhawks very impressive
over the weekend. I have to be honest, I was
I was not expecting them to just sort of bully
BYU the way they did in that game. The final
scores was a little bit misleading. I was sitting there
with a chance to cover four and a half somehow
at the end of that game.
Speaker 1: But Kansas ended up getting it done.
Speaker 2: They deserve to win, They deserved to probably win by
double digits. The big takeaway from the second half of
that game, Robino, is Darren no Peterson in the second half, right,
and you know he leaves with cramps. I thought it
made sense because they were up. I mean, they were
up twenty more than twenty at one point, I believe
if I remember correctly, I know it was right around
twenty eighteen at half. I think in the second half
at multiple points it got two twenty and maybe even
over a twenty point margin. So when you've had a
guy dealing with injury, rob and you've got a guy
that's cramping, absolutely no reason to put him out there.
Maybe it's why Byu came back a little bit, though
I have a theory that that's a little bit different
than that. So talk to me about this game. Now,
Kansas hits the road. They go to Lubbock, Texas Tech
had had an interesting loss over the weekend, one I
certainly wasn't expecting. So how do you see this Kansas
on the road tonight in love with Texas.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's start with Kansas Adam, it's a team that's
red hot inside the Big twelve right now, five consecutive covers.
It started with Iowa State in that blowout game eighty
four to sixty three. It's bracketed by what happens Saturday
that you witnessed the ninety to eighty two win against BYU,
which wasn't really as close as the final score would indicate,
like you mentioned, and they did a lot of it
without Darren Eaters in second half. I think he said
the final sixteen minutes or so. But you know, Melvin
Counsel Junior talked about him earlier this year, what a
pickup from St. Bonnie. Melvin Council Junior has been and
the starting starting group for Kansas put in a ton
of minutes, put in a lot of work, got the
job done against b YU. If I get the Texas
Tech on Saturday, Adam, I'm maybe it's gonna sound like
I'm justifying this, but I'm just gonna call it a
Houston hangover. Some of the numbers that came out of
that game on Saturday for Texas Tech lose by eight,
give up eighty eight to UC, which is a high
scoring team, but eighty eight. It's a lot to give up.
Get beat on the free throw line minus ten and
free throw attempts minus eleven in free throw makes so
you lose eleven points right there at the foul line.
But Texas Tech, which contested Houston so well on the
glass twice in two meetings this year, could only pull
away four offensive rebounds while the other side got thirteen.
Central Florida lots of second chances. Texas Tech just almost
like they were gassed, had thirteen turnovers, only four to six.
Not that they're a big turnover forcing team, but when
you start to go over some of these numbers. They
shot it really well, but it wasn't enough because they
just didn't do the little things, the hustle things that
I think Houston can take out of you because of
the energy that you have to extend against Houston. Go
ahead and travel to Florida Orlando and get beat. So
it's the life of the Big Twelve Conference. Obviously, there's
never an easy out or an easy win in this
particular league. But Texas Tech overall has been good. And
if I just use Houston as a comp they played
them twice now, they've played them extremely tough, but Texas
Tech at home is really where I want to go here,
because they beat BYU fairly sound eighty four to seventy one. Again,
that was a game that was close, and then Texas
Tech broke away last five minutes or so. Really they
changed the game at that point. And then they've beaten
Houston here. So when you've beaten BYU by thirteen, when
you've beaten Houston by four, here asking you to beat
Kansas by four and a half on this home floor,
after Kansas comes away with the win that they had
the other day and now travels and you both six
and two inside the league, it's a big game record
wise for Big twelve seeding. The matchups are gonna be
the matchups, Adam. I mean, we both know they have
great players. We don't have to discuss personnel at that
depth anymore. But some of the things that Kansas and
Texas Tech do well they could be advantages. Texas Tech
shoots the three better than any team in the Big
twelve and Big twelve play KU doesn't defend the three
tenth in the league. Defending the three, that could be
a difference maker here for Texas Tech. Just not a
great rebounding team. I only bring that up because Texas
Tech has been so good the combatively on the glass
against a team like Houston. Now you get Kansas. It's
almost a step down in rebounding class. So there's some
things here that Texas Tech fundamentally has advantages in. Got
to keep Ku off the foul line they like to
get there. We'll see. I'd imagine Peterson gets his full
minutes here, Adam, because for those wanting to back Kansas, say, hey,
we just wanted home with Darren Peterson playing after game
and now he's going to play a full game. But
I think Texas Tech's the right side here. It's a
lot of situational college basketball team off a bad loss,
team off the absolutely terrific win, now has to travel.
Other team gets to, you know, a tone for their
loss on their home floor. I like, excuse me, Texas
Tech here minus to four and a half. Recent results
at home have proven they can handle it, and I
think the situation sets up nice for him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that four and a half numbers is
probably pretty like what I you know, right, I think
I made it four point nine, So I'm not surprised
that it's it's in the four and a half range.
I feel like some people might be surprised that Texas
Tech coming off the loss and Kansas looking as good
as they did this weekend is like a five point
home favorite.
Speaker 1: But I think that's about where it should be. Robin.
Speaker 2: I think I lean your way just in the in
the respect that you know, if Texas Tech shoots the
ball well and they can sort of ride that that
home energy here and then the shots start falling, they
could create some separation.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: The interesting thing to me is like, yes, Kansas has
this big win over BYU, but I think it's less
likely for Kansas to to let down for a couple
of reasons. One, you know, you go back to Peterson, Well,
they were it was.
Speaker 1: I just pulled it up.
Speaker 2: It was fifty three thirty three at halftime like it was.
I was sitting next to a couple of BYU fans,
like there's like four of them right in front of me,
and I feel like every every other Kansas fan like
these four. And that's credit to BYU fans because they
are like they're like the best fans. They never that
they're gonna ride or die with their teams no matter
what they like. They don't get mad at their teeth
like they're they're just cheering them on. And I'm like
watching these four them like these four are like the
only four people in the building that that think b
YU has a chance to get back in this game.
And then I'm sitting back here with a Kansas zip
up bomb. But I've got b YU plus four and
a half, so I'm I'm like, let's go. And it
was weird. It was like BYU just kind of like
lulled Kansas to like they were Kansas like pretty much
felt like they had the game one. BYU started just
chucking threes and hitting them. I think that's what Texas
Tech might do right from the rip here like that
that might that's probably their their path to like blowing
this game open. You know, don Donovan Apple was a
guy that it came over from UNC Greensborough who I
really liked at Greensboro. That I think, if I mean,
if they just start chucking and a tim In Watts
can knock down a couple of threes, like Tech could
open this game up, and then you're and then you're
probably covering your five or whatever whatever that number is.
Speaker 1: You know, something from sun a Saturday.
Speaker 2: That I felt was really good that Kansas did well
was they never really let the Vans to get in
the flow of the game. They had him clamped early
and they were all over, the fans were all over
the overrated chance and and he couldn't do much one
on one.
Speaker 1: But I just think, like going to.
Speaker 2: Your point, Texas Tech has more shooters and if they
just you know, they're gonna have to make shots though, right,
But it's it's They're a good three point shooting team.
They have a couple of guys that can really cook
from from the perimeter. So if Texas Tech is making shots,
they they could blow this game open and they could
create that margin. That being said, the flip side that
you could look at for Kansas is like just how
dominant they were when peters And was on the floor
for that first twenty minutes where he played about seventeen
of them, that that Kansas team looked like that they
look like you could beat anyone in the country. That
was as impressive of twenty minutes of basketball to do
that to BYU, who I think is a very good
team that I've seen in person all year, and I've
been to a lot of different games.
Speaker 1: Peterson comes out in the second half.
Speaker 2: What I'm curious to know and my gut says self
looked at the scoreboard a couple of minutes in the
second half and was like, I think we're okay here,
Like I think we could hold off a twenty point
lead for the final seventeen minutes of the game. I
think the decision was made right there. Hey, you got
a big game on Monday. Hang it up, like just
we're good and you know, like I said, credit to
BYU for cutting it to four at one point, but
that was as close as it got. So Rob, I'll
throw another lean out here. I think there's points in
this game because if Peterson plays the whole game, that
offense is like it's so much different than when he's
not on the floor. So I think I agree with
your Texas Tech lean, but I'll add another one.
Speaker 1: I'll go over in.
Speaker 2: This one Tech Texas Tech Kansas because I think if
the threes are falling for the Red Raiders, you're probably
gonna have a high scoring game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we're BYU is concerned. Let's just get back
to that for an instant adam against top quality competition
this year, they've kind of shown that ability to dig
a hole and get out of that hole and make
it close at the end. Right, you take back to
the Yukon game, they were in a hole, they made
it close at the end. The prior game to Saturday
against Arizona, we talked about the final fifty five seconds
in that game. They were in a huge hole, almost insurmountable.
Somehow they found their way out, and then they almost
find their way out against Kansas. It's almost like BYU
has to learn how to be a little bit closer,
you know, throughout the game so they don't have to
shovel themselves out of trouble. And to your point, I
mean on the on the Texas tech side, you've got
Christian Anderson, and these are guys that aren't small sample size.
One hundred and sixty five threes he's thrown up this
year forty four percent, forty three point six to be exact,
from three point range. Atwell, who you mentioned Donovan Atwell,
another guy one hundred and sixty five threes this year
forty four point two percent. You've got Petty who's put
up one hundred and two three pointers shooting thirty seven
percent there's so many options that you know, Richie Saunders
had a big game Saturday, Adam to your point about
Kansas saying, hey, we're gonna lock up the Bansta, And
I'll just expand on what you said a little bit
that there's a lot of options to guard here. Because
we didn't even mention J. T. Toppins's name in the
three point shot. I mean, if are you gonna guard
the perimeter, which you don't guard well anyway tenth in
the league in guarding the three, or are you gonna
if you focus on topping, these guys could kill you
from the perimeter. So there's a lot more to worry about,
I think Texas Tech as far as options are concerned
than BYU where Cada is, you know, kind of a
alley oop type guy or a lob guy on offense
and not much else. While we were speaking at him,
while you were speaking, this game went as low as
three and a half, and then the three and a
half's almost every one of them got bought back to four.
So we went from four and a half down to
three and a half back to mostly four. There's still
a couple of straight three and a half's out there,
but within this you know, ten seventeen. We've been talking
about this game for about nine eight nine minutes now.
In that span of time, we've seen line movement both ways. Here,
one group going KU, another group pushing back with Texas Tech. Again.
Game did open three and a half, for what it's worth,
got to four and a half and to the total
open one fifty and a half now staring at one
fifty four and a half. So the money agrees with
your look at the over in this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, had to do a thorough in there.
Speaker 2: They'll probably clip this one, so we had to give
him side in total. But yeah, and it's the game
of the night and on a Monday night where there's
not as many other games. Got to give that one
the full attention, Rob Vino. There was a point in time,
although it feels like a distant memory to me and
everyone in the five to one, the three to one
five area code. Of course, I'm from the five to
one eight area code, where there is a very large
concentration of Syracuse fans as well. There was a point
in time where this game on a Monday night would
have been just as big of a deal. But Syracuse
basketball has seen better days. You could say the same
thing a little bit about North Carolina, though there I
would say having a fairly good season this year. Though
I don't know that this is like to North Carolina
standards what they would consider a great season.
Speaker 1: I think it's a good season.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 1: They're back and they're in the top twenty five, so
that's good.
Speaker 2: Cues calmed the fan base down finally over the weekend
with the win over Notre Dame because because folks are
getting rid to riot after the losing by twenty to
NC State, so q's gets back in the win column.
Now they have to head to Chapel Hill was not
surprised at the fact that they opened a double digit underdog.
I'm a little bit surprised that this one has moved
to where it's where it is now, So Robbino, does
Syracuse have any chance to pull.
Speaker 1: The upset at the Dean Dog tonight?
Speaker 3: You know what's interesting to me, Adam digging through and
I'm so glad that you have like paperwork all over
when you're doing the show, because I'm that same guy,
Like I have paperwork everywhere here on this desk. But
when I was going through this game this morning, it's
interesting we started this season. I hadn't know a couple
of months ago, and in the early stages November December,
let's let's talk maybe mid December, we were talking about
the height of UNC, right and how big they are
across the front line, and how they're gonna be a
little bit better defensively and maybe there's more rim protection
and more interior score, et cetera, et cetera. Only to
get to this point in the year and find North
Carolina just being North Carolina. Seven and zero over the
total their games are the last seven games. Six and
one over the total is their team total last seven games.
They haven't scored less than seventy eight points in any
ACC game so far this year they've played nine. UNC
is the same, although differently built. They're the same dynamic offense.
I won't say they're the same, you know, vulnerable defense,
but there's still not a great defense considering all of
that height. Have to approach UNC very very different nowadays.
That's why this total went from one fifty two and
a half all the way to one fifty six and
a half. Because how else you're gonna play North Carolina
games anymore? You gotta look total first, if you're over first,
if you're looking at total the Syracuse side, I'm gonna
say a couple of things here and have you explain
them to me. We've talked about William Kyle, a bunch
rim defender, et cetera, et cetera. It's true they're fourth
in the ACC and blocks in as or block percentage
in ACC play, but man, they don't defend real well.
Effect The field goal percentage eleventh from two point range
inside the arc, they're twelfth in the conference, which is
kind of surprising because we constantly say here on the
show that they should provide pretty good rim defense. The
block shots are one thing, but you still got to
stop the other side from scoring, whether it's mid range
or what it is. They just haven't been that good.
Saturday they go out against Notre Dame. They shoot lights out.
A couple of numbers here, Syracuse has played twenty two games.
It's only the seventh time this season out of twenty
two where they shot fifty percent or better. It's the
second highest field goal percentage they've shot all season. They
were really, really good. And when you go down the
box from Saturday and you start seeing you know, who
did the score here? You say to yourself, man, these
guys are pretty good. How come they're not better? Donnie
Freeman basically didn't even contribute in that game, and we
spent a lot of time talking about when Donnie Freeman
gets back into the lineup, et cetera. So for Syracuse,
a bit of an enigma on the defensive end. How
much can they put up on the offensive end here?
To get this thing over the way everybody thinks it's
gonna go, They're gonna have to score a little bit.
Maybe North Carolina allows them to score a little bit,
because like I say, they're seven and oh their games
are seven and oh to the over last seven. UNC
is shooting the three really well this year. I don't know, Adam.
I just I've come full circle now on North Carolina,
and all those thoughts I had about them being a
better defensive team and maybe a more methodical team are
all out the window. At this point. They score, they
run the up points. They're an over team. So maybe
I looked that direction. I just want to give a
quick check to the Syracuse team total, because that thought
crossed my mind. Here seventy two and a half. I'll
dig into it a little further during the day, but
for Syracuse to get the seventy three might be a
consideration here because again UNC has been not the greatest
on the defensive end this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'll be interested to see what coach
Autrey does with his starting lineup. Like over the weekend
he decided to bring Donnie Freeman off the bench. You
have to wonder, Rob if that has anything to do
with the fact that they they're better defensive performances were
when he was out with an injury. So if you
go back to the players tournament back you know, the
Vegas MTE that was like Thanksgiving your feast week time period.
One of their best defensive efforts of the game or
of the season was that game against Houston that they
probably should have won, which you know would have been
a tremendous win for a team like Syracuse. And then
the next day against Kansas for the majority of that
game they were pretty good defensively. And then the game
I went to where they played Tennessee, they were tremendous defensively,
probably their best defensive effort of the season in that
game against the Balls where they get the outright win
as an eight point dog in like a sixty I
think both teams barely broke sixty. So and I left
that game thinking, man, like this isn't you know, William
Kyle's blocking everything.
Speaker 1: The defense is is really intense.
Speaker 2: It's all a man to man and they're just locking
up there, you know, their their opponent. And then Freeman
comes back, the defense hasn't been as good. I don't
know that he's the issue, but you know, I mean,
I think Syracuse has a lot of other issues in
addition to like maybe you know, having regressed defensively now
over the weekend. Do we think that that was like
some great defensive performance. No, I think they were just
playing Notre Dame, who's been without their best player, right, Like,
I don't think that that was just some like crazy
defensive performance.
Speaker 1: It was a good effort by Cus.
Speaker 2: They put up eighty six points they never really had,
you know, there was never really a doubt for them
in that game. But I don't think like that having
Donny Freeman come him off the bench is some genius
idea that Red Autry just concocted here, right, So.
Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see what way they go.
Speaker 2: Does he bring him off the bench again and try
to go like ultra defensive to start this game, maybe
to just you know, throw you and see out of
their rhythm. But the problem with that, Rob is how
how does Syracuse hang around with North Carolina if Freeman
doesn't give them twenty or twenty five points?
Speaker 1: Right, you can't have a seven point.
Speaker 2: Game from Freeman like you had over the weekend and
expect to be anywhere near you and see in this game.
So that makes it very challenging. I will wrap it
up with this, just watching this team over the years
Syracuse and in recent years when they've had bad teams
or what I consider it to be teams, like like
bad CUS teams. This is the game. This is the
type of the game that they tend to show up in.
This game on the road, no one really giving them
a chance, double digit underdog. There was one a couple
of years back. I feel like at UNC they maybe didn't.
They played really good for a long stretch and maybe
they like think they might have covered right at the end.
But to me, I think you have to go back
like two years for that one. It was a road game,
cuse at UNC, it was a Saturday afternoon point is
I wouldn't be surprised if if they gave an effort here.
You know, that was a big win over Notre Dame
to just quiet the fan base. I don't know that
they have people back on the side of Autrey or
that the fans are still not furious, but you know,
it was a good win and something to build off of.
If Syracuse can defend a high level here, which they
have it in them because they've done it against Houston, Kansas,
against Tennessee. If they can do that, I think they
can cover twelve and a half, which is where this
is steamed to at this point. I don't know if
this is gonna make my card rob but I do
think that q S might be a be able to
hang around in this game. I don't know if they
can win, but I don't I wouldn't be that surprised
if this was more competitive than people think. All right,
let's uh, I gotta go to Garth here. Sorry, Garth,
that was a premeditated transition to q S UNC, so
I'll get you in here.
Speaker 1: Garth donated. He says, we haven't talked much Big Sky
about ball this season. Yeah, that is that is true.
Speaker 2: I think you know why, Garth, you know why that is?
It's not a slight toward the Big Sky. I think
it's because they always play a league slate on Saturday,
and on Saturday, they're pretty much never gonna come up
in conversation unless you're really noisy.
Speaker 1: In the chat.
Speaker 2: I don't I don't know that Kelly Stewart really respects
the Big Sky Conference. That's just what my gut says.
He But yeah, so let's get some Big Sky talking
because Rob. But going into the season, when we were
we had the idea of how do we, you know,
handle all these teams. Maybe we'll we'll split the leagues
up a little bit. You were kind of like, well,
I I like, you know, I stay up and I
bet some totals in this conference quite a bit. The
game Garth wants to talk about specifically is Portland State,
who was sort of running roughshod through this league, and
then they finally had the game that was kind of like,
you know, they were they were always going to be
do a little bit of regression, and it came in
the Montana State. The Montana game over the weekend. I
believe they caught Montana State without their best players, so
maybe a little bit more regression for them, but they
still won the game because Montana State, I think, only
put up fifty four points. Do you see kind of
Portland State getting back to what they were, you know,
prior to the Montana Montana teams, because I don't think
they played their best ball against Montana and Montana State
the last two times out.
Speaker 3: And it was still close and they still did what
their trademark has been. It's very, very interesting to see
Portland State evolve into this dominant of a defensive team
inside league play. Adam Portland State is one of those
teams over the course of the last couple decades where
they're just up and down the floor and scoring points
that most of my success with this particular team last
twenty years has been playing to the over. But you're
not playing to the over and having a lot of
success with Portland State this year. It's where the biggest
discrepancy in this game lies because Idaho State is not
a good defensive team. Idaho State's going to have to
score in order to beat them. First time around, this
game went ninety three to eighty seven. It was seventy
eight seventy eight after regulation, So you had one hundred
and fifty six points in regulation. The game was played
at Idaho State, but it's one of the few games
where Portland State gave up what I would call an
excessive amount of points when you look at what they've
given up to the rest of the league. So it
could be a matchup thing. But you are turning around
and going on the road here to Portland State, just
it's hard to lay a batch of points with this
team simply because they don't score enough to get full separation.
You're asked to lay six and a half here. It's
not an incredibly large amount. They did win by that margin,
as you mentioned against Montana State the other day, without
their best player. But I do wonder, you know, the
dilemma becomes, is Idaho State just a good offensive matchup
against this defense or was that just a one off
way back towards the beginning of Big Sky season where
Portland State is settled in now and just not giving
up anything to the good teams, to the good offensive
teams in the league. So for me, I think I
would probably start by looking under as far as this
conference is concerned. Idaho State is a team I've looked
at a little bit toward overs, but mostly when we're
looking at this league, we're looking at like Sacramento State,
who we've talked about quite a bit. They've had this
tendency to go over. We're looking at Eastern Washington, we
talked about earlier in the year, Northern Colorado, et cetera.
A lot of over teams because that's generally what I
like to play. But if I were going to start here,
I think maybe you have to look over. Portland State
probably doesn't give up seventy eight to this team again today,
So for Garth, I would say, if the number is
low by modern day standards, one thirty seven and a half,
one thirty eight, and sometimes it's difficult to keep these
games under so with the first result, I somewhat shy away,
But I do think Portland State is seven points better
than Idaho State at this point in time. Portland State
just does every single thing well out of the defensive end,
and nobody's been able to rattle them for about h
street games now, So that would probably be my best
look Portland State here. Who has a chance. Honestly, I
don't think they will because I think Montana is better,
but they do have a chance to win this league
this year. They're one of the top contenders when Big
Sky Tournament time comes around.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you pointed out the first meeting.
Speaker 2: You know, there was twenty four extra points in that
in that meeting because it went into overtime. So the
interesting things for me like about the first meeting, right,
Idaho State, I believe, was up big in the second
half at one point, took a kind of a big
comeback by Portland State to four SOT and then they
go and win by six in overtime. So that's certainly
encouraging if you like the Idaho State side. Is the
fact that like that first game, I mean, you could
make a pretty strong case that Idaho State should have won. Now,
what's not to like about the Idaho State side you
brought up is the travel you'll get in this league.
Sometimes every once in a while you get hit with
the double back, with the double road trip. Right where
you're going Thursday Saturday back to back, and then you
come back and you have to do Thursday Saturday.
Speaker 1: Back to back again the following weekend.
Speaker 2: That's tough in this league because this this league covers
some ground, right, Like, I mean, it's not so much
the mileage travel. But these are not you know, Pocatello, Idaho,
like right like aoram Utah or wherever. I don't know
if it's orm it's the other one where where Weaver
State is Okay, the point is Flagstaff, Arizona.
Speaker 1: Flat.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Flagstaff, Arizona where I was last year, you know
for a Northern Arizona game, all the way out to Sacramento, California. Like,
these are not Greeley North Greeley, Colorado. These are tough
places to get to. So having to play a fourth
straight road game, which is what Idaho State is being
asked to do here is not eat.
Speaker 1: I mean that's this would.
Speaker 2: Be the probably the toughest spot for them on this
this sort of swing of their schedule. Right last week
they go to the Montanas. That's a tough trip, having
to go to Bozeman and then to uh to Montana
on the you know the on Saturday. This week they
go down to Utah to play Weaver. Now they got
to go to Portland State. That's a Saturday. That's a
Saturday Monday. So they did give them the week in
between the trips, but still that's a tough trip. Saturday
and then having to hang out Monday for this game.
Four straight road greames, So that's tough for Idaho State.
But I still, I still think Portland State might be
a tad just like inflated on the number.
Speaker 1: Right, they had such a hot start to league play.
Speaker 2: I'm kicking myself or not playing the Montana game because
it made it made like so much sense to fade
Portland State in that spot, and then over the weekend
they benefit, Uh, they benefit by Montana State not having
one of their top players. I think if Montana States
have full strength right there, maybe Portland State struggles again
in that game. And then on top of that, they
weren't like overly impressive in that win. So I want,
I want to like the points here with Idaho State,
but I don't know if I can get there with
the fact that they know they're gonna be playing their
four straight road game. It's the back end of like
a road back to back, and like you said, Rob,
if they if the Portland State defense, which has been
so so good, can clamp down, they might be able
to create some some distance on their home floor in
this game.
Speaker 1: So it's a tough one.
Speaker 2: May I maybe I maybe lean under just because I
think that that that that first game got out of
control and then had five extra minutes and twenty four
extra points tacked on to uh to the score.
Speaker 1: So maybe an underlean for me there.
Speaker 2: Okay, real quick promo double firepower CBB package myself and Rob.
We had a really good weekend Rob promo to at
the top. That's up on our page. Uh, I'm sure
we'll each have something for tonight. It's uh, it's a
light slate, but there's a lot of good games and
uh we're gonna keep rolling right through. Uh. We we
have a big time back and forth going on in
the chat about this next game. Not Nacha, I'm gonna
I'm gonna do it again.
Speaker 1: I can't. I don't even know why. I'm gonna try
to say it.
Speaker 2: But it's not your dogas, not your dogs by you
spell it out for me phonetically in the chat. Please,
I know you can do that. It's na Goadjas Texas.
The point is McNee State is going to hit the road, Rob.
And if you remember, we talked about mcneice's very first
conference road game in detail on this show, and in
that game, I gave out increnit word and before that game,
I said, I am going to make a conscious effort
to fade McNeice on the road in conference play when
they play the better teams in this league. Okay, and
I want to update what has happened since that game.
So we hit outright with increnit word in that first game, right,
they were like an eleven point underdog something like that,
and they won the game out right. We then cashed
against the spread the next time it came up with
Houston Baptist or Houston Houston Christian whatever the hell they
call it the school now right, I think this app
might still have them the wrong name, But anyway.
Speaker 1: That one covers.
Speaker 2: And if you remember that game, they had McNeice on
the ropes as well. McNeice didn't really create that. That
ten point final was only created right at the end.
I mean, I mean, Houston Christian was never really you know,
never really worried about covering that game. McNeice then had
four straight home games, so the spot didn't come up
again until until mid January, and I kind of said,
you know what, I'm gonna throw these two out because
for me, I couldn't really tell if Grand Valley Rio
Grand Valley and Texas A and i'm Corpus Christie were
in the top.
Speaker 1: Half of the league.
Speaker 2: I was like, these could do, could go either way,
so I'm going to talk these out, and it was
probably I saved myself Juice rob because ute Rio Grand
Valley actually beat McNeice and then mcneesse blew out A
and m Corpus Christie.
Speaker 1: I don't I didn't. I threw louis the Louisiana and
Lamar trip.
Speaker 2: I kind of was like, I have those teams toward
the bottom of the league here a little bit, but
they actually both covered the number. So had I expanded
it to just fading mcneise on the road in league play,
the record would be, what did I just like five
and one right now? Because McNeice went on the road,
didn't cover against Southeast Louisiana and then they only beat
Lamar by one and they were a ten and a
half point road favorite in that game. Now, that's a
long winded intro to get to this game, but I
wanted to illustrate the point where after hearing me talk
that out, you think, oh Trigg, Steven f Austin's and
no brainer tonight, right Because they're they're arguably the best
team in this league. They're at home, they're coming in
nineteen and three.
Speaker 1: They're awesome.
Speaker 2: But Rob, this is what happens in sports betting, right,
Suddenly we're not getting McNeice with like an eight point cushion,
a ten point cushion, a twelve point cushion.
Speaker 1: Now he needs Steven F.
Speaker 2: Austin pretty much to win this game, and that's where
I might have to back out of this strategy. So
I see you by you. I know he loves Steven F.
Austin tonight, and I see like the pro Steven F.
Austin sentiment here. But I don't know if I can
get around the fact that a few weeks ago, I
might I might have been getting six in this game.
I might have been getting six and a half maybe,
you know, maybe maybe between five and six. And now
suddenly I basically need Steven F. Austin to win this
game to cash. That's where I might have to back out.
So even though I see the merit of like this
is a really good team at home, McNeice has struggled
a ton on the road against the spread in play,
I don't know if I can get there with that number,
So I don't know, talk to me about this game,
and it helped me make sense of this one.
Speaker 3: Well, let's go back to the first meeting they played already,
Like you say, that game was in McNee sixty six
sixty four McNee Stephen at Boston hangs in there the
whole way, and here's for by you and maybe he
could help here. To me, the head scratching part of
this particular line movement in this game was affected to
total win up. There's not one single thing inside conference
play the south Land that Steven F. Austin doesn't do
better than just about everybody in this league. The numbers
of you know, the number one appears next to their
name in multiple categories. Defensively here where McNeice block shot
team probably covers up some form of defensive weakness at times.
But I would say that I'm on board with Steven
at Boston here. I mean, it's just been an incredible
run for them. Back when we were talking about McNee Adam,
I think BP was even still on the show and
we were trying to figure out who's going to be
any good in this league aside from McNeice, And I
don't know that at that time, we actually put Steven
at Boston on the pedestal that they should be put
on now to go to McNeice to come within two.
They got beat up on the free throw line in
that game. And when I say beat up, it's just
because they had twice as many free throw attempts against them,
thirteen for McNeice only seven free throws for Steven at Boston.
And what's interesting in that game is McNeice is the
best free throw shoot three throw shooting team in the league,
and they only made eight of thirteen in that game,
so they probably could have won by a couple extra
in that contest. MacNeice, which is really good at turning
people over, turned Steven at Boston over fifteen times as
opposed to seven. They're going to have to overcome those
deficiencies here, but the home floor makes up for or
a lot. McNeice. Do you treat the Saturday game against
Lamar where they snuck by sixty forty sixty three as
a look ahead to this showdown or do you treat
it as you know, somebody's gonna catch them out right
here again? And whichever way you look at it. Twenty
twenty hindsight is always the best way to find things out.
But I think Stephen F. Austin is the is the
side here at home taking a point and a half
and one more time. I'll just say what I'm really
confused about here is why this total goes up to
one forty two and a half. When McNeese State defensive
average time of possession defensively is the slowest in the country.
In other words, you come down and you try to
set up offense against McNeice, that shot clock's gonna run
because you're not getting an immediate shot. You're getting the
slowest possession time in the country, and with Steven F.
Austin you're getting the three hundred and thirty fifth lowest.
So both lockdown half court defenses. Neither side really pushes pace.
You get caught in one of these grinders like sixty
six sixty four that we saw earlier. What could hurt
you is overtime if you're playing under But I don't
know that you can walk to the window and say, man,
I'm so scared of overtime. I can't bet. This game
and a half seems awfully high to me. So in
this contest, I think I would play under and I'd
look to Stephen F. Boston to avenge what happened earlier.
I think at this point in time they probably can't.
And real quick, Adam, the one thing that you said
earlier triggered thought. You said that McNee State is now
in a price range where all we're asking to do
is win the game. And we just saw this Friday.
We talked about it with Michigan, Michigan State, Michigan. Oh,
they have to lay double digits every night, they can't cover.
They'rerow and seven. It gets a spread. But then when
only asked to lay one and a half and win
a game, guess what happened. They won the game pretty
convincingly on the road in a venue that's gonna be
tougher than what Steven F. Austin is gonna present. I
venture to say Bresley Center is a tougher place to play,
as tough as it might be playing Steven F. Austin
not the same.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Listen, I think it'll be a phenomenal crowd tonight.
It's gonna it's gonna be a great atmosphere. Rob, I'm
with you. I like the under here. I don't really
want to like have to pick between McNeice being in
like a good value spot and like you know, showing
up here and Steven F. Austin and like the crazy
like home crowd with the great home record. I don't
really want to want to pick between those two things.
But the undermakes so much sense. We saw the first meeting.
It was cagey. They McNeice did as good of a
job on Kean Thompson as anyone has done this year, really,
and if you look at at Steven F. Austin's games,
I mean Keon Thompson is, I mean, he is the
offense for this team. He's he's what makes the offense go.
The last few games fifty ten points, twenty seven, twenty six,
twenty fifteen, fifteen sixteen, the last time he didn't score
double digits in the game, McNee state eight points, three
of ten shooting. They had him locked up all night
in that game. And so if they could do that
good of a job on him here, which I don't
see why they wouldn't be able to at least sort
of like roll out a similar game plan make someone
else beat them. Like I don't really want any part
of Steven F. Austin especially now one and a half.
That's a I think that you'd be taking a bad number.
I think you'd be taking a bad number there. I
do lean toward the under that that's what I think.
Under is probably the way I would look there.
Speaker 1: I actually rob.
Speaker 2: I think I gave out the under in the first
meeting when those two teams played, and it went under
by a mile, So I'll just call it for a
similar game. Someone says, trigger, who did your makeup this morning?
That's probably the lighting here I am in. I've got
these like little lights. I wonder if I have the
setting wrong. Do you want me more tan? Are you
looking for the tan setting? Should we go in the hybrid?
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I think it's probably the lighting here. If I look
a little flush, it's because I don't. I haven't slept much.
If you if you haven't been following along, I've been
just driving around the Midwest and now I'm trying to
make my way back back home. So uh but yeah,
we ran it back with the white gummy Bear rain
after a three and oh day yesterday I had to
come back with the same energy drink.
Speaker 1: So Ba Bets says, do you ever sleep?
Speaker 3: Was sleep?
Speaker 2: In May right like what Rothstein says, it's Uh, it's
we're in conference play right now. Sleep can wait. We
we'll sleep when the season, sleep when the season is over.
By you says the bang energy is going to hit
the skin.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I've I've worked my way through most of this can
it hasn't really hidden yet, So purple haze bang, I
don't know. I'm not a big grape guy, so ba bets.
I'll have to I'll tell you what once. Uh, I'm
going to ride the white gummy bear out as long
as this wind streak will allow. But once I have
to switch it up, I'll try the purple haze bang.
Speaker 1: Yeah, someone's like to my kidneys?
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, I don't I don't drink so like I'm
hoping that the damage, like you know, some people do
damage to their body with alcohol. Maybe i'll you know,
I'm getting a little bit back there, so you know whatever.
Speaker 1: Hopefully the energy drinks won't won't kill me, but we'll
we'll see.
Speaker 2: Uh that Camsa is that that that energy drink is
not from the BUCkies concourse walk. It's from down the street.
But that was uh, yeah, Rob, have you been to
a BUCkies. Have you been to BUCkies yet?
Speaker 3: I've never been in a Buckiest. Rob.
Speaker 2: This this put BUCkies puts wa in sheets and a
body bag. Instantly, it's it's one of the most incredible
places I've ever seen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, unbelievable.
Speaker 2: All right, back to the games tonight, Rob. You know
it's we got about thirteen minutes left. We're going to
team or today. Do you have any idea where you
want to go with the parlay?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm so. I'm gonna just I'm gonna roll this
way out. And when I came on the show, my
every intention was to go ahead and play Betune, Cookman,
Alabama A and m over the total of one and
a half. But we talked about the game already and
the more I keep doing little investigation here the one
thing that's somewhat of concern, and but I got ripped
in the comments section one day we're talking about travel situations.
Somebody was coming at me for you know, it's only
an inch of eyes and everybody's going to the gaming.
I think when we talk about travel, we're not talking about.
Speaker 1: I defended you there, Rob.
Speaker 2: They were trying to say that, like the ice you
were like, all the ice isn't gonna matter.
Speaker 1: They're like, you don't know what an engine of ice does?
And I said, my sister went to Duke.
Speaker 2: These the you would have to have the world would
have to be ending for that building to not be
completely packed for a Duke game.
Speaker 1: So I had your back there, Rob.
Speaker 3: Sorry, And even for that, I think when I talk
about it in those in that context, it's always about
does the team have difficulty flight wise etc. Getting to
the venue? Not the fans and how you know what
we put chains on our tires. I mean, I grew up.
I know what it is. Syracuse travel to Chapel Hill
tonight probably got a little bit dicey along the way.
I mean, they've read a couple of reports, but everything
seems to be aoka. And the more I think this
game threw, the more I think this underdog side Syracuse
getting above their team total tonight is the right way
to go. It's priced so low seventy two and a half.
Every team except one has gotten to seventy three against
UNC and league play, and so why not Syracuse. They've
got certainly got enough scoring. I don't expect to have
the same shooting performance that they had against Notre Dame
on Saturday, obviously, but I do think there's just too
many components on that Syracuse team and they could get
blown out here at him This final could be ninety
five seventy four, and I could care less if they
get over seventy two and a half points here. I
just think that's the magic number. Like I say, UNC
has been allowing it because they've just been scoring and
either winning by wide margin or winning high scoring close
games or losing high scoring close games. And the other
thing I'll add to it is that I know it's
six days away, but Duke is on deck for UNC,
and the UNC Duke look ahead is always a factor
no matter what. So for me, I'm not gonna worry
about whether or not Syracuse can contend within eleven and
a half points. But I do think they can get
to seventy three here, So that'll be my leg of
the part. Like Syracuse team total over seventy two and
a half, Yeah.
Speaker 1: I co sign that. I think I think C's is
going to hang around.
Speaker 2: And I think if you, if you LIKEQS, that you're
probably gonna need that many to cover anyway, So I'm
with you there. I am going to go well in
the meantime before we move on, did you did you
have something to say about Pathune Cookman or were you
not going to go to that game because I kind
of cut you off there.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, real quick, it still could make the card.
I'm gonna dig just a little bit deeper. But Reggie,
theus's team is certainly they're the class of the league
right now, especially on the defensive end, which wouldn't correlate
to playing a game over. However, Alabama A and M
has been such a good, efficient offensive team, and on
their home floor, you always expect a little more out
of them. I think they can give them half a
go here. I don't know that they'll stick within the number.
It's been bet really heavily toward the Pethune Cookman's side
so far. This morning, I think we saw a rise
from one and a half to maybe four, and rightfully so,
because Bethune Cookman has been that good. Last Monday, I
went with their team total over got there with ease.
I think they can score on anybody in this league.
So if I start with that, if I start with
say seventy eight out of it doing Cookman, can I
get the rest. Can I get you sixty five out
of the other side. I don't know why you can't.
With Alabama A and M as good as Cookman's numbers
are defensively inside this league, and everything they did in
the non con prep them like it does so often
for Southland and Swack teams for this, which I should
put miak in there as well. The teams that play
the really really tough paydays to get ready for a
conference season. I think Alabama A and M, having the
home floor here and being as good as they've been
efficiency wise on their home floor, is good enough to
probably find their way to sixty eight sixty nine. When
I put it into proper context like that, mathematically, it
just seems like an over game to me. So still
may make the card, Adam go and check it to
a couple other things. But that was a consideration of
mind for those in the chat that you know like
to take. Sometimes I drop more than one thought here
when it comes to parlay time, if you're taking note
of them. That was one that I had here today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you've been You've very much nailed the the Thune
Cookman thing. If you go back to earlier in the year,
I said, man, like they're you know, they definitely have
probably the best players, but I felt like the top
half of that Swack was very strong, very like evenly matched.
And I remember you kind of saying like, nah, this
the Thune Cookman team's like marginally better from a talent standpoint,
and it's been like completely correct. They've they've stood out
their seven to one league play and would would Doc
Bradley back. I don't even know that the books have
fully like adjusted to like how much how good this
team is with him back, because it's like, you know,
I mean something like that kind of gets lost in
the shuffle. That's not a huge name, he was, he
just came from another SWACK team last year. But yeah,
seven and one in league play. It almost looks when
I watched Cookman, it almost looks they can name like
they can name their score in a lot of these games.
And it's like, you know, the one game we were
both on where you you ended up getting your team
total but I failed to cover by like a point
or two, they kind of went to sleep, like he
put some of the backups in that. It was the
Alcorn State game, so like they only won that game
by eleven, but they were so much more dominant than that.
And then you know, last time out though against like
an Alabama State, you could see that they wanted to
make a point, right that was a because Alabama State
won this league last year. So that was a game
where you could see, like, you know, Cookman really wanted
to make a point, and they go out and win
the game on the road and win it easily. I
just there's no way I would bet against them at
this point in this league, like unless it was like
you were getting a great number to do.
Speaker 1: So They're just they're a lot better than the rest
of these teams.
Speaker 2: So anything pro Cookman, I think I can get down
with here, all right, Rob, I think I know where
I'm gonna go here. We got National TV tonight for
the Patriot League, and for a league that's in my backyard,
I gotta be honest, I have not done much with
this league this year. I'm usually very very involved in
the Patriot League. This is a league I typically bet
a ton I haven't bet at much this year because
I think all of these teams are awful. Like I
think this is like as as I think the Patriot
League is as bad as it's been I guess, like
from a talent perspective and the fact that a lot
of these teams just aren't very good basketball teams. Like
that's why I haven't been involved with the Patriot League much. Now,
Navy is having a really nice year. They're nine and one,
but the books have known this about Navy since the
beginning of the season. There really hasn't been you haven't
really gotten much value trying to bet on Navy. The
problem is I haven't felt I haven't felt like I
wanted to bet against them, And it's so it's like,
you know what I mean, it's been hard for me
to find good spots to get involved in this league.
That being said, I think we have a situation here
where I am willing to buy low on a team
that I thought was going to be the team pressing
Navy at the top of this league this year, and
that's Boston University. If you go back to the beginning
of the season, we did a show and I said,
the Patriot League is a three horse race this year.
It's gonna be Navy, it's gonna be Colgate, it's gonna
be Boston. You the rest of these teams are awful.
I've nailed two of the three components this league is
Navy and it's Colgate. No one else is did no
one else is close to them right now. Navy nine
and one, Coldgate seven and three. Yes, there's some parody
and some of these other teams are in this in
the middle, like Lee High got a nice win over
Colgate over the weekend. But I'm telling you right now,
those two, it's Navy, it's Colgate.
Speaker 1: It's everyone else.
Speaker 2: The reason Boston you is not in that group is
they kind of have been decimated by injury this year.
Uh they've been they just haven't had the roster and
the group of guys that was that they thought they
were going to have, which is when when you when
I had them in the top three, Ben Roy was
was playing a part in this team. Landrum, I think
is the other guy I'm the name is escaping me,
Cairo and Alexander. These are all guys that were supposed
to be like playing big parts for this team this
year and really haven't played all season. But now as
we talk about injuries, right, like at some point, you
know those guys, you have to just forget about them.
And with b U, right now they're three and seven.
They're never there. They're never gonna be the team they
were supposed to be pre all these injuries happening. But
I still think they're better than being the worst team
in the league. And that's what this matchup is essentially about.
Speaker 1: Right here.
Speaker 2: It's the two worst teams in the league, Boston University
Holy Cross. Both of these teams at three and seven,
they're tied for last place in the league. All I'm saying, Robin,
is I still think the Boston Universe is like at
least a middle of the pack team. With all the
injuries in this league. They've had some tough luck losses
overtime over the week in a buck. Now they had
a game against American they let slip away earlier this year,
So I am going to buy low going forward on
Boston University. I felt like they could have and should
have won over the weekend.
Speaker 1: They didn't. Now they have an easier matchup.
Speaker 2: It's a road game, but it's only holy Cross, it's
right down the street, and this moved a little bit,
So I'm just gonna go Boston University money line here.
I just I still think they're better and I think
this could be the turning point that at least gets
them like back middle of the pack by the end
of conference play.
Speaker 1: So I'll go with the Terriers here on the money line.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I had luck with them a couple of weeks
ago with a team total that got the overtime against
Lafayette and they won seventy seven to seventy three.
Speaker 1: So go be you, that's right. That is the Uh
some great.
Speaker 2: My sister was went to undergrad at b and then
she went to Duke and she was an athlete at
Boston University, so I you know, she knew some of
the players and that was man those BU teams when
she was there was Pat Chambers as the head coach,
and but uh is it John Holland like one of
the better players they've ever had at the school. They
went to the NCAA Tournament, lost a game to Kansas.
I believe there were sixteen seed. But yeah, b you,
I don't really think they've really been back since. And
it's it's too bad because this was a team I
thought this was this was the year BU gets back
in the NCAA Tournament, and the injuries have just straight
up let them down. But like I said, I think
this is the I think this is the time you
buy this team. The pendulum has swung way too far.
They're not the worst team in the league. I can't
see them being at the bottom of these standings. So
Boston University, we'll call it minus one fifty. That number
that that minus one was gone pretty quick. So Boston
University minus one fifty will be my leg of the parlay.
And then Rob Bino's going with the Syracuse team total
over seventy two and a half. Little tea to two
teamer for you on Monday. Let's see if we can,
you know, run these up this week and get back
in the plus for the parley of the day. For
anything Rob and I play, that's going to be available
on wager talk dot com on the double the Firepower
CBB package, all of my plays, all of Rob's plays.
If you grabbed it over the weekend, you probably did
pretty good because I think we've both had a pretty
solid weekend.
Speaker 1: I will be back home.
Speaker 2: By the time we do this show tomorrow morning, so
kind of looking forward to that. Even though the the
hotel backdrop was better to me today than it was
on Saturday when I had the bed in the background, So.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll be back.
Speaker 2: Enjoy the hoops tonight, Let's cash some tickets and we
will see you guys tomorrow ten am Eastern