Speaker 1: I want me some Glorio.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Hello, Welcome to Deep Football Gloria Hold Podcast.
Speaker 3: Listen to Apple Podcasts, Sound Foul Spreaker, watch us live
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Speaker 3: and every glory whole six for tuning in this week.
Speaker 4: I'm your name, Welcome to my money born.
Speaker 5: What all right? All ride bo ciphas Here we go.
Speaker 5: NFL Week numbers seven and oh baby, do we have
Speaker 5: some action this week? Lots of underdog winners, sounders, big,
Speaker 5: big picks, danger zones. We got them all this week.
Speaker 5: And as we are watching Joe Fleackel live on our
Speaker 5: TVs win maybe as an outright underdog, it makes me
Speaker 5: feel like this week that I have cooked up with
Speaker 5: all these underdog winners are gonna pay off. Big could
Speaker 5: be there, or it could be the six pack of
Speaker 5: booze I've already drank before we even started this fucking podcast.
Speaker 5: Either way, we all win boceivahs hit with that. But
Speaker 5: for the funny, it's a question fun.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna have fun and you're gonna have fun.
Speaker 5: We're all gonna have so much fucking fun.
Speaker 4: When the classic surgery to.
Speaker 5: Remove our goddamn s files you'll be whistling symphony due
Speaker 5: to out of your assholes. Are you out here for
Speaker 5: the money?
Speaker 4: And money is the root of all evil? Doesn't fucking
Speaker 4: have any They say money can't buy happiness.
Speaker 5: Look at the fucking smile on my face. Here to
Speaker 5: hear baby, you have come to the right place. Two
Speaker 5: questions for you people. Do you like football? What a
Speaker 5: stupid question that has What a stupid question? You ask
Speaker 5: a lot of stupid questions. My apologies, mister President's I
Speaker 5: will do better. Do you like money?
Speaker 4: I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I
Speaker 4: use it. I have a little I keep it in
Speaker 4: a jar on top of my refrigerator.
Speaker 5: I'd like to put more in that jar. That's where
Speaker 5: you come in. That's right, Adams Center. That's exactly where
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Speaker 5: underscore FGH. Become our football partners for life so that
Speaker 5: you can bet football the right way, the winning way,
Speaker 5: the bet FGH way, and as all ways. Here on
Speaker 5: the sports patio. We got that TeVeS glowing, We got
Speaker 5: the bear heavily flowing tonight and right now it is
Speaker 5: everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of the shoe. My friend,
Speaker 5: tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting wo choice
Speaker 5: of the week.
Speaker 2: I still drunk.
Speaker 5: I feel right, Donna.
Speaker 3: Thank you very much, sir, search Tonight, I'm drinking any
Speaker 3: hard way. I p a from Chicago Brewing Company and
Speaker 3: Lost Vegas, Nevada located Longhorn inside of the Four Queens,
Speaker 3: one of our favorite spots for drunken food.
Speaker 5: Great smelling. What a great smelling casino is? You know
Speaker 5: you can never forget the smell of the Four Queens.
Speaker 5: Let me tell you well.
Speaker 3: I'm drinking tonight speaking of smells, because I recently learned
Speaker 3: the story of how the Fourth Queens got its name.
Speaker 3: So apparently, in nineteen seventy two, there were a group
Speaker 3: of four ladies that would come into the sportsbook every
Speaker 3: Sunday and bet on the Dolphins to win.
Speaker 4: And at first We're like, hey, sweat Italian guy, can we.
Speaker 3: Like bet on the Dolphins to win? And the bookie
Speaker 3: was like, of course you can't, sweetheart. You just can
Speaker 3: bet on anythings you want. And after about a month
Speaker 3: of these ladies coming in here and bet and winning,
Speaker 3: the bookies got curious and nests, Hey, why you guys
Speaker 3: always be betting on the dolphins, And the ladies were like,
Speaker 3: because Monica's favorite animal is a dolphin, so like it's
Speaker 3: a sure thing. And to that, the bookie said, the
Speaker 3: only fucking sure thing is is is your assistance? Fucking
Speaker 3: an stick kid, Get the fuck out of here with
Speaker 3: that bullshit. But the ladies kept winning as the Dolphins
Speaker 3: went seventeen and oh that season, and eventually they got
Speaker 3: buried in four holes in the desert just for being
Speaker 3: that stupidly lucky. But the wise guys did have enough
Speaker 3: respect for them to rename the casino the Four Queens
Speaker 3: in their honor.
Speaker 4: So all good, you know, all good, that ends good,
Speaker 4: long one.
Speaker 5: Yeah. All I heard from about the moral of that
Speaker 5: story that I heard was like I heard women and
Speaker 5: heard holes, and I connected those two dots and I
Speaker 5: kind of just kind of checked out from the rest
Speaker 5: of it. I don't know.
Speaker 3: Oh shit, Well, boys and girls, whether your lady, whether
Speaker 3: you're man, we are gonna get into the podcast now.
Speaker 3: We're gonna go over every game in the NFL in
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Speaker 4: Oh my god, okay, it's happening.
Speaker 5: God, what do you think is happening right now? Excuse me?
Speaker 4: What is happening here? What is happening?
Speaker 5: What the fuck just happened?
Speaker 4: Oh? You know what's happening. It's time for all those
Speaker 4: men's coming to the ads.
Speaker 5: And night member.
Speaker 3: Alright, boys and girls, it is that time to go
Speaker 3: over every game and.
Speaker 5: Then shut your mouth. Phil Callings, don't be don't be
Speaker 5: coming here with all your copywriting ship.
Speaker 4: That's right, we're gonna start.
Speaker 5: Oh, speaking of witch, let's let's uh, let's get a
Speaker 5: little bit of that right here, Bosts.
Speaker 4: Right, communicate some towns for me, please, I really blunt?
Speaker 5: You sound like, yeah, yeah, gotta get the real things sometimes.
Speaker 4: That's good ship.
Speaker 5: All right.
Speaker 3: Those Jacksonville, those London Jacks as we all know that
Speaker 3: they are, that this is their true home stadium over
Speaker 3: there in London.
Speaker 4: They're facing those.
Speaker 5: The stadium Yanks, the stadium that the Jaguars built, as
Speaker 5: they say, over there somewhere, Yeah, that's yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 3: So they they're facing these Yanks, these Yanks from Los Angeles.
Speaker 3: And let's see, they're currently three point dogs at home,
Speaker 3: three point basically home Kohorn.
Speaker 4: Now, season on this one.
Speaker 3: Was I had Jacksonville three point dogs. Vegas had them
Speaker 3: three and a half. So we're basically right in line here.
Speaker 3: We're still where these teams are who we thought?
Speaker 4: So what are you going on this one?
Speaker 5: Well, I don't know where's my board. I don't think
Speaker 5: either one of us had Jaguars winning ten games. They're
Speaker 5: they're kind of, they're kind I don't know yet that
Speaker 5: they are well we thought they were leaving that most people.
Speaker 5: But I will say this a lot. I like a
Speaker 5: lot of dogs this week, A lot of a lot
Speaker 5: of dogs to keep the games close, a lot of
Speaker 5: dogs to sneak out some wins. Having a hard time
Speaker 5: with this one. There's a really smart guy that I
Speaker 5: know once told me that you can only pick the
Speaker 5: Jaguars if they're gonna be able to be successful running
Speaker 5: the football. And of course that guy was you and
Speaker 5: the Rams are they're middle of the pack, at least
Speaker 5: the metrics that I look at, they're they're run the
Speaker 5: middle of the pack at stopping the run. So what
Speaker 5: that tells me is Jacksonville is probably a live dog here.
Speaker 5: I would probably lean to the three points. Certainly at
Speaker 5: the three I know that this. I think this line
Speaker 5: open at two and a half. Don't don't like that,
Speaker 5: although two and a half lands, you know that that's
Speaker 5: a key number, more of a key number than than
Speaker 5: has been in the past. But at three, I can
Speaker 5: only lean to the Jacksonville Jaguars. But I'm not sure
Speaker 5: about the pook. Do you know if Puka is for
Speaker 5: sure in or out as Yeah, so there there's still
Speaker 5: just need more information. Yeah, I think so too. So
Speaker 5: this is just a lean to the Jaguars at three,
Speaker 5: and I think they're gonna they will have some success.
Speaker 5: But big picture, I'm gonna stick with what with what
Speaker 5: I've been saying the whole time is that I don't
Speaker 5: think we've seen the best of Jacksonville. Even in some
Speaker 5: of the losses, I've been somewhat impressed by the overall team.
Speaker 5: There's obviously friction going on between the quarterback and the
Speaker 5: head coach, which I love. I think this head coach,
Speaker 5: I really like him. He's you know, we saw some
Speaker 5: friction between We saw a friction between Jesus Ben Johnson
Speaker 5: and Caleb Williams. He kind of had to like break
Speaker 5: him and like just fuck you, I'm gonna go out
Speaker 5: there and fail. We're seeing some of the same things
Speaker 5: with Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence to be like, just dude,
Speaker 5: There's been a video of him not calling a time out,
Speaker 5: like when it's clearly like the quarterbacks, letting them, let
Speaker 5: the clock drain down and get the leg game, and
Speaker 5: he's just stand He's literally standing there with his arms
Speaker 5: folded next to the ref where he could clearly call
Speaker 5: time out, and he's just like, you're really gonna I
Speaker 5: almost you're gonna fuck us off. Fuck it off. So
Speaker 5: it's like there's some growing pains going here, which I
Speaker 5: really like from a from a young rookie head coach
Speaker 5: to be like, dude, come on, like you're you're one
Speaker 5: hundred million dollars quarterback, You're the franchise quarterback. Get with it.
Speaker 5: So but that's big picture, a small picture in this one.
Speaker 5: I like Jack's plus three, but it's not one of
Speaker 5: my any of the sounders or anything like that. What
Speaker 5: do you you got agreement over there with the numbers
Speaker 5: was what are the big brain computers? Say bo saves?
Speaker 4: All right, So full transparency.
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna let everybody know U I did not
Speaker 3: get to get all my research done going to this podcast.
Speaker 5: So it's gonna be your best week ever in the NFL.
Speaker 4: Of course. I'm in the middle of a transition.
Speaker 3: I'm getting my tests cut off and my vagina sewed
Speaker 3: up into a penis. I'm gonna be the man that
Speaker 3: God always intended me to be. I feel like that's
Speaker 3: how I feel. I just want to Everybody needs to
Speaker 3: support me on this, Okay, everybody needs to support me.
Speaker 4: And if you don't support me, you are a Nazi.
Speaker 4: So just don't make fun of me. Don't make fun
Speaker 4: of me.
Speaker 5: As long as you keep winning. I don't really give
Speaker 5: a fuck what you do with your private so I
Speaker 5: mean that's all. Just keep winning, dude, chop whatever you
Speaker 5: want off because I don't really care.
Speaker 3: All right, So the power of grads grade has the
Speaker 3: rams here now the BBG.
Speaker 4: I did it through all those It's a no call
Speaker 4: at three.
Speaker 3: I've got the Rams running twenty four to twenty two,
Speaker 3: so that's within the margin being and no co it
Speaker 3: is over though the forty four and a half. Look
Speaker 3: this should be you know, it's a raider game for Goldielocks.
Speaker 3: But Matthew Savage should have success in this game. He's
Speaker 3: plus one point through the BBG. Both running games are flat.
Speaker 3: You talked about the Rams running defenses. Looked at those
Speaker 3: stats as you're pulling them. The Rams are seventh in
Speaker 3: the NFL at rushing success rate on defense.
Speaker 4: So now I didn't break it down again.
Speaker 3: I have not had time to break down as far
Speaker 3: as that one matchup that I talked about before with
Speaker 3: ETN So just because of the seventh ranked you know,
Speaker 3: rushing success rate, doesn't that one matchup I broke down
Speaker 3: when I said he was not gonna have success. That
Speaker 3: was against a twenty ninth success rate rush defense in
Speaker 3: Kansas City. But I said, they defend the one run
Speaker 3: that he does that he needs very well and he
Speaker 3: didn't do shit in that game. So I didn't get
Speaker 3: down to that level. But if you just look at
Speaker 3: the rush scess rate seventh NFL, the Jaguars, the Longhorn,
Speaker 3: surprisingly enough, sprizingly enough, second best rushing success rate in
Speaker 3: the entire NFL. So the Rams are going to struggle
Speaker 3: to run the ball here. And if Pooka can't go,
Speaker 3: If pook can't go, you're absolutely right Rams or the
Speaker 3: Jaguars are alive.
Speaker 5: Dog.
Speaker 3: However, I do have one trend. I got to pull
Speaker 3: some trends this week. So I've got a bunch of
Speaker 3: guys on the BY going into the next week and
Speaker 3: by and guys coming off the BI, and I will
Speaker 3: give those trends as we go. The Rams are on
Speaker 3: a bye going into next week, so I pulled information
Speaker 3: from twenty eighteen. If you're in neutral sizs we're playing
Speaker 3: you know, the London game. Since about then we got
Speaker 3: fourteen games in the sample size, decent sample size for
Speaker 3: you know, seven.
Speaker 4: Years, basically two games a year.
Speaker 3: If you're going into the buy on a neutral site
Speaker 3: and you are the favorite twelve and two straight up,
Speaker 3: eleven and three ats with the average line of minus
Speaker 3: four with a plus three point five ats. So that's
Speaker 3: as you're right there, the Rams gonna win this game
Speaker 3: about seven points historically.
Speaker 4: Now I do have grade over.
Speaker 3: The under though, is three and eleven, so it's heavily
Speaker 3: graded to the under and minus seven on forty four
Speaker 3: point six is this total is forty four point five,
Speaker 3: so it tells about overs.
Speaker 4: Kind of bullshit.
Speaker 3: On that one, But this trend is heavy, heavy, heavy
Speaker 3: on the Rams.
Speaker 4: To cover this game.
Speaker 3: Like I said, I have one in twenty four to
Speaker 3: twenty two, it's three points, take it or leave with
Speaker 3: what you want, but that it tells me it's probably gonna.
Speaker 4: Be a RAMS victory, probably be a RAMS cover.
Speaker 3: I don't I'm probably not gonna have anything on this game,
Speaker 3: but either way, I'm not I'm not going against a
Speaker 3: seventy eight.
Speaker 4: Point six percent trend. I'm not doing that. I'm not
Speaker 4: betting the Jaguars at all. I can promise you that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I'm not eager to bet Jacksonville either. But
Speaker 5: i will say this on pick EM's and against the
Speaker 5: spread contests and all that that you're in, it's kind
Speaker 5: of depending on what number you get. Some needs contest
Speaker 5: lock in early, some of them locking late. If I've
Speaker 5: got a contest lock in against the spread that you
Speaker 5: have to pick every single game, and I'm getting a
Speaker 5: two and a half with the Rams probably taking that
Speaker 5: probably taking that.
Speaker 3: Like I said, again, the Acs eleven and three plus
Speaker 3: three point five on an average line of minus four,
Speaker 3: we're sending it three. So they've been this game by
Speaker 3: seven and a half points at a seventy eight point
Speaker 3: six percent clip.
Speaker 4: For our trend line and our history.
Speaker 3: So again, you don't have to bet with every trend,
Speaker 3: but you don't bet against those kinds of trends, especially
Speaker 3: they're this specific neutral site and you're the favorite right
Speaker 3: before bye, you're on vacation, you're about to go on vacation,
Speaker 3: you're living life high like the you just don't go
Speaker 3: against that.
Speaker 5: You don't know the Rams are on the buy next week, Yes, sir?
Speaker 5: Yeahs not playing then? I mean like he hasn't he
Speaker 5: hasn't practiced all week. And if they're on a buye then.
Speaker 3: Why by And they're already they're already projected to win,
Speaker 3: so him not to play it maybe that's what cous
Speaker 3: them not to win by margin. However, like I said,
Speaker 3: if Jacksonville struggles run the ball, which they are project
Speaker 3: they're projected to run the extra ball flat, so they're
Speaker 3: projected to get their normal amount of points through the
Speaker 3: BBG through the running game.
Speaker 4: But so are the Rams.
Speaker 3: But Stafford is projected to have a very very good
Speaker 3: game in this game.
Speaker 4: And that should be the difference. What would get the
Speaker 4: Rams the win and the cover here?
Speaker 5: All right? I don't want to spend too much time
Speaker 5: on on a on a game that doesn't sound like
Speaker 5: he's the one of us love a lot. So Oh
Speaker 5: my god, Flacco just ran like ten yard. But take
Speaker 5: the over Flacco rush yards for ten in one play.
Speaker 5: You just cast that fucking team. How does a forty
Speaker 5: nine year old run ten yards all getting tackled the
Speaker 5: NF not not just tackled, decapitated in the NFL. I
Speaker 5: don't know. I just saw it, though it happened under.
Speaker 4: I guarantee you on fucking like a draft game. Was
Speaker 4: half a yard?
Speaker 5: Oh my god, Tolman just looked like he had the
Speaker 5: What the fuck just happened? What is wrong with my
Speaker 5: goddamn defense? Yes, he he might kill somebody to this game,
Speaker 5: because they're working on giving up thirty plus points to
Speaker 5: the Bengals with a really good defense. In theory to
Speaker 5: Joe motherfucking Flacco after he just told everybody, what fuck
Speaker 5: you trade in Division A starter week one to your
Speaker 5: goddamn division rival Cleveland Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals. They
Speaker 5: are they're the stepsisters of this division, and they're in kohoots.
Speaker 5: They're in coddamn kohoots against those fucking Pittsburgh Steelers and
Speaker 5: Baltimore Rates. I'm telling you, like they like they just
Speaker 5: build a team up. Hey, how can one of us?
Speaker 5: How does one of us beat the bullies? You want,
Speaker 5: you want flac oh, We'll give you flac oh. Just
Speaker 5: just I don't care. I'm gonna shit, go go go
Speaker 5: beat them.
Speaker 3: No, this is a true story. We were in the
Speaker 3: draft in Cleveland. We asked there was Cleveland brown fans
Speaker 3: buying us shots the Cincinnati fans standing right behind us,
Speaker 3: and we said, hey, you hate this guy. He's like,
Speaker 3: I don't this fun guy hat. He's like, we hate
Speaker 3: those fucking guys. And they literally all that and the
Speaker 3: dude behind them all point of the fucking Steelers fans.
Speaker 4: Ye hate these guys like they all hate the Steelers.
Speaker 5: So Miss Slippy. The part of the story that I
Speaker 5: like the most is that when you're talking about all
Speaker 5: the shots that they were by because these motherfuckers on
Speaker 5: the East Coast, Oh my god, drink. Taking a shot
Speaker 5: to them is just like, hey, you want to you
Speaker 5: want some water, you need you need a bottle of water.
Speaker 5: That to them, you need a bottle of water? Is
Speaker 5: would you like a shot of tequila? It's it's or that.
Speaker 5: That's it's what it is to them. God damn it.
Speaker 5: They drink a lot. They do.
Speaker 4: It's like a sport up there.
Speaker 3: Let's move on to those New York jay t They're
Speaker 3: holding those Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 4: All right preseason on this one. Let's see, I had
Speaker 4: Carolina minus two. Uh they said the Jets minus more
Speaker 4: and a half.
Speaker 3: They were currently setting at Carolina minus one and a half.
Speaker 4: So I was Carolina minus one one and a half. Uh,
Speaker 4: So I was a lot closer to the Vegas was
Speaker 4: on this one. So long one, What are you gonna?
Speaker 5: What do I What do I have on the Carolina
Speaker 5: versus Jets game? Let me say, so, this is gonna
Speaker 5: be the game that I cannot take my eyes off for.
Speaker 5: They're all the wrong reasons like this is this is
Speaker 5: a train wreck, car crash casualties everywhere that I just
Speaker 5: cannot wait to watch. Uh Carolina. I was higher on
Speaker 5: Carolina than than almost anybody I know actually coming in
Speaker 5: the season. This has been two years in a row.
Speaker 5: I've got them winning, can bear spon board. I think
Speaker 5: it was seven games, maybe eight, and they're three and three. Well,
Speaker 5: but they're three and three. Now here's the deal, though,
Speaker 5: like I got, I got you pegged Carolina and not
Speaker 5: that kind of peg, the other kind of pegged, like
Speaker 5: you are great, They're they're doing the they're doing the
Speaker 5: Cleveland thing. Good at home, trash on the road, unbettable
Speaker 5: on the road. But here's the problem. They're betting a
Speaker 5: team that's on betable anywhere you cannot bet on on
Speaker 5: the on the Jets. The Jets are the new Titans
Speaker 5: from the whole last year and a half before. They
Speaker 5: just fired their coach. So now the new Titans where
Speaker 5: you can't bet on them bet on them is the Jets.
Speaker 5: Can't win with them, can't bet on them. That's that's it.
Speaker 5: That's the Aaron Glenn, this is what you get when
Speaker 5: you do de I just I don't know what to
Speaker 5: tell you. It's it's and this isn't like recency bias.
Speaker 5: I've been saying this since the summer. He sucks. He
Speaker 5: got promoted for for reasons I do not know. Someone can,
Speaker 5: maybe maybe someone can, really someone smarter than me, can
Speaker 5: explain to me how he got that job and and
Speaker 5: what he did, you know on the field as a coach,
Speaker 5: that that gave him a job. But in this situation,
Speaker 5: I got to I got a movable object versus you know,
Speaker 5: irresistible force. Which one do you go with? And as
Speaker 5: ugly and disgusting as it is, the Jets somehow when
Speaker 5: the tug of war of the ship, that they win
Speaker 5: the shit tug of war for me, I guess just
Speaker 5: because they're at home, and because at some point are
Speaker 5: they gonna go O seventeen? I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 5: if they're gonna get a win, maybe it's here against
Speaker 5: a team it's that's terrible on the road. I hate
Speaker 5: this pick. It's not a sounder, it's not a it's
Speaker 5: not a it's not anything except I have to pick somebody.
Speaker 5: So give me the Jets, and and you know it's
Speaker 5: a win win bo steem because if they lose then
Speaker 5: I get to stay on my airing. Glynn is the
Speaker 5: worst hire of all time at minus Callahan for Callahan
Speaker 5: and Callahan for Tennessee.
Speaker 3: All right, So I haven't again full transfers have not
Speaker 3: done my full board yet. However, early on, this is
Speaker 3: one of my favorite bets of the week.
Speaker 4: Power is on with the Jets.
Speaker 5: The Jets are your favorite bet.
Speaker 4: It is one of my favorite bets of the week.
Speaker 5: Okay, so powering is on the Jets.
Speaker 3: I've got the Jets winning through the VBG twenty four
Speaker 3: to twenty. That's over the forty two home match.
Speaker 4: He's gonna be what he is. You know, he sucks.
Speaker 4: It's actually a decent matchup.
Speaker 3: Bradshawing games a half a point to the VPG. However,
Speaker 3: here's where the rub comes in.
Speaker 4: This should be this should be the best running game
Speaker 4: the Jets have for the entire season. So if you
Speaker 4: have what's Longhorn, what's the guy's name, the running back
Speaker 4: for the Jets, brisall, yeah, Brisaw.
Speaker 3: On your fantasy team, if you're on daily fantasy, if
Speaker 3: you do any of that shit, put your money on
Speaker 3: this guy. He should have a fucking great game here
Speaker 3: against this Carolina defense, with the scheme of the Jets
Speaker 3: run versus what Carolina does on defense, he should be really, really,
Speaker 3: really good. Regal Dalla has been a revelation for the
Speaker 3: for the Panthers. However, he grades out flat here versus
Speaker 3: what the defense gives up. So in other words, what
Speaker 3: that tols you is he should be around his market price.
Speaker 5: It doesn't mean well, Cheeper Hubbard, Cuber Hubbard is probably
Speaker 5: playing this week. So it's gonna be a dual threat
Speaker 5: running back for Carolina, for whatever that's worth.
Speaker 3: They should probably make it a single threat because fucking
Speaker 3: Rigo has been killing but whatever.
Speaker 4: I'm not a coach. I don't know who is better
Speaker 4: or whatever.
Speaker 3: But either way, what they run versus what the Jets do,
Speaker 3: it should come out about what their normal productivity is.
Speaker 3: So I've got that, I've got the Jets winning this
Speaker 3: game by four points, and.
Speaker 4: I've got this.
Speaker 3: You know what, fuck it, I'm gonna make this the
Speaker 3: it's gonna be the numbers get picked the wikis. I
Speaker 3: got a nice trend on this one, and I'm gonna
Speaker 3: start that over because because we didn't hear it, I got.
Speaker 4: The volume down. Why would I have the volume off?
Speaker 4: I want you to fucking nerd with your nerd, yeah me,
Speaker 4: my nerd hair. All right, here we go.
Speaker 3: Since and I had to go back to two thousand,
Speaker 3: yeah two just to get some just to get a
Speaker 3: few games into this, and then the dog get into
Speaker 3: this trend for a while. So the reason why I
Speaker 3: went back this far week seven, you literally have a
Speaker 3: zero percent winning percentage. You're own six.
Speaker 4: You're the dog, y'are the.
Speaker 3: And the line is three or less two and one
Speaker 3: straight up two and one ats all time average line
Speaker 3: two point two. Look, this is just one of those.
Speaker 3: And I've called this several times.
Speaker 4: I mean, we've been long horn, We're doing this for
Speaker 4: a long time.
Speaker 3: There's been several moments, even with teams I hate, like
Speaker 3: the Jets, I've got the under I called this a
Speaker 3: couple of years.
Speaker 4: Ago in Carolina. I actually called both. They won two games.
Speaker 4: I called them both.
Speaker 3: And it's just one of those burned the boat's moments. So,
Speaker 3: either this team decides to play for your boy Aaron
Speaker 3: Glenn this Sunday, or he's fired.
Speaker 5: No, he won't be fine. Now that that's where Okay.
Speaker 3: Yeah, fired on Sunday, but he's fired at the end
Speaker 3: of the year if they don't win this game. This
Speaker 3: is one of those burned the boats moments. Like you said,
Speaker 3: they're not gonna go oh to seventeen.
Speaker 5: Most likely probably not.
Speaker 4: This is the game. This is the game.
Speaker 3: They have a strategical matchup advantage here. Field should be fun,
Speaker 3: not great.
Speaker 4: But fun.
Speaker 5: Well is it? Is it gonna be filled? There's there's
Speaker 5: murmurs of Tyrod Taylor.
Speaker 4: Maybe I.
Speaker 5: Actually actually I would I prefer Tyrod Taylor. Jesus Christ,
Speaker 5: please put him in.
Speaker 3: But either way they should be able to run the
Speaker 3: ball very very well in this game. Control the fucking game,
Speaker 3: control the fucking clock. This this has got to be
Speaker 3: the game They're gonna win again. This has to be
Speaker 3: the game Jets win. Jets covered. This is one of
Speaker 3: my favorite bets of the week. Again, I haven't maybe
Speaker 3: and officially because I don't have on my data in yet,
Speaker 3: but as I've looked at it so far, this is
Speaker 3: literally my favorite bet of the entire week.
Speaker 5: Jets. Yeah. Some of the some of the talking points
Speaker 5: on Justin Fields this week coming out of locker room
Speaker 5: has been something along the lines of this or something.
Speaker 5: Yeah that's that. I mean, that's you know, I'm confirmed,
Speaker 5: but I think that's along along those lines.
Speaker 4: I also heard this baptized laughing. That's what he's been.
Speaker 5: Doing, been doing anything but getting first downs?
Speaker 4: Oh I God, so bad.
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to those Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 3: Oh as they start their march touch another World Championship Longhorn.
Speaker 4: Nope, nope, they're hosting are Lost Vegas ratest. Good lord,
Speaker 4: the line of.
Speaker 3: I can't wait to see what I had on this one. Okay,
Speaker 3: this is so gross. Like I knew it was so wrong.
Speaker 3: I had Kansas City minus seven, Vegas had a minus
Speaker 3: nine and a half. There's get eleven and a half
Speaker 3: points now favored Stros enough because well, you know, we
Speaker 3: just powerings throughout the year.
Speaker 4: This is an call about the powering.
Speaker 3: So the numbers fair to me along one of the
Speaker 3: BBG just says otherwise, but I've also have more data. Look,
Speaker 3: this is one of those games where it's a hold
Speaker 3: your nose game if you're gonna go for the Raiders
Speaker 3: for store.
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, but what do you yeah? I mean like
Speaker 5: this this is your first day on the job, of course,
Speaker 5: like this, this is a you have to take Vegas
Speaker 5: in this spot. This is just like we've we've cashed
Speaker 5: this ticket several times through the years. Like this is
Speaker 5: just a must play if you're going to bet, if
Speaker 5: you're gonna be a football or professional football better. And
Speaker 5: certainly if you're gonna do a you know, a handicapping podcast,
Speaker 5: like you can't come out and say, yeah, I think
Speaker 5: I think Case lay the point like that. That's the
Speaker 5: fucking dumbest thing in the world. This is a must
Speaker 5: play on Vegas. Mahomes does not cover these big lines historically.
Speaker 5: That's number one. Mahomes as a favorite. We've talked, I've
Speaker 5: talked about for so many years now that Mahomes as
Speaker 5: a small favorite under three or a dog is his
Speaker 5: smash spot. You get over three, and we had one
Speaker 5: of those last week, like last week against Detroit, small
Speaker 5: favorite at home. That's just that's just his that's just
Speaker 5: his spot, man. And well we can always we can
Speaker 5: always get drunk and talk about all the fucking is
Speaker 5: of this and that and this and that, but he
Speaker 5: always comes out on the on the right side.
Speaker 4: That the fact that there was no real motion violation.
Speaker 5: Oh my god, we're gonna talk about they get the calls.
Speaker 5: They're the best team, just like the Cowboys in the nineties,
Speaker 5: like the Patriots in the odds. This is the way
Speaker 5: it goes when you're the best team.
Speaker 3: But you can't get like a fake motion call, I
Speaker 3: can I get, I get the.
Speaker 5: Whole Are you telling me the call in the first quarter? Yes,
Speaker 5: the first okay, really come on, But that means that
Speaker 5: changed the whole fucking game. They changed the whole change
Speaker 5: which I mean there was, there was fifty eight minutes
Speaker 5: you have to play with that changed everything.
Speaker 3: Okay, Like you're gonna pretend like one fucking call doesn't
Speaker 3: say you fucking nobody, you fucking know better. When you're
Speaker 3: on the road facing the fucking champs and you go
Speaker 3: up seven to nothing versus three to you know that
Speaker 3: changes the game.
Speaker 5: Look, I know you got to pick on them, so well,
Speaker 5: I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna go
Speaker 5: hard on you know that I do.
Speaker 3: If you're on my side on that, you would say
Speaker 3: the same fucking thing. Well, wind of call changes the
Speaker 3: whole fucking dynamic of that game.
Speaker 5: I would say, yes, But didn't Detroit have the lead
Speaker 5: after that?
Speaker 4: No they didn't.
Speaker 5: They never got the lead. I'll go back and check
Speaker 5: the boss if you if they never had the lead,
Speaker 5: then I will I will agree with you. But I
Speaker 5: think they had the lead in that game, which throws
Speaker 5: that all out the winter because once you had the lead,
Speaker 5: you got the lead. How fuck yeah? Since is about
Speaker 5: to win this game, by the way, with the men
Speaker 5: and a half left and there and inside the ten,
Speaker 5: they came back and scored through the lead. Now, since
Speaker 5: he's about to fucking just say fuck you, we were
Speaker 5: taking this one. It's the week of the dogs, baby,
Speaker 5: it's the wig of the dogs. We're winning some games
Speaker 5: out right, but not in this one. Not Vegas ain't
Speaker 5: winning out right, They're not doing that. But yeah, of
Speaker 5: course I'm on Vegas just to finish out.
Speaker 3: So the Lions, they're losing six to three at the
Speaker 3: first quarter, they were losing thirteen to ten out of
Speaker 3: the second quarter, twenty ten out of the third quarter,
Speaker 3: and thirty seventeen finals.
Speaker 4: So no, they never, they never.
Speaker 3: But they would have been up seven to six as
Speaker 3: the first quarter, fourteen to thirteen after at halftime, if
Speaker 3: all the if all the scoring, just say the same,
Speaker 3: fair enough, just because you had the other fucking side.
Speaker 5: No, I've been No, that's a spot that I always
Speaker 5: a mahomes. This is not just that's that's a spot.
Speaker 4: I'm not saying that. You Yes, I'm not saying that.
Speaker 3: All I'm saying is that one call changed the dynamic
Speaker 3: of that fucking game, and it was a bullshit no
Speaker 3: again the whole thing, the passing Affearce.
Speaker 4: I know they're gonna get that. I know they're gonna
Speaker 4: get those calls.
Speaker 5: That call was which was it or was it the
Speaker 5: actual rules? And and he re knew it and and
Speaker 5: called it out?
Speaker 3: He didn't call it out, New York fucking sit down
Speaker 3: a fucking review.
Speaker 4: It's it's been a whole controversy.
Speaker 5: All right, fair enough, fair enough. So I can't wait
Speaker 5: to see how AI decides how to cut up this
Speaker 5: conversation between half talking about about cac and Vegas and
Speaker 5: half talking about Casey, Like figure this one out. Let's
Speaker 5: tell smart you are AI? Can you figure out this
Speaker 5: cut up? And this and this chop job? So back
Speaker 5: on this game, mahomes as a favorite, however, as a
Speaker 5: favorite of seven and more, there's a lot of trends
Speaker 5: and a lot of things that I saw throughout the
Speaker 5: week that tells me to take Vegas. But I'm gonna
Speaker 5: pull this one because I just love this one so much.
Speaker 5: As a favorite of seven and more. My homes is
Speaker 5: thirty six and two straight up. That's great, right, here's
Speaker 5: a problem. Those two losses. There's a Vegas so like
Speaker 5: this is his kind of and we and we've we've
Speaker 5: seen this and and go favorite seven more. Yeah he yeah,
Speaker 5: he wins these games. He just doesn't cover. But it's
Speaker 5: just interesting that the two losses he has are against
Speaker 5: this Vegas team. Now the offensive tackle shuffle that's going
Speaker 5: on with with Kansas City because the rookie that they
Speaker 5: have who's played pretty pretty pretty well pretty okay, uh,
Speaker 5: he he got hurt. I don't know if he's coming
Speaker 5: back this week, but they got they got a decent
Speaker 5: backup that they signed from San Francisco as a kind of.
Speaker 3: Almost killed somebody this week too.
Speaker 5: Yeah, they got, they got. I don't I don't really
Speaker 5: care about that. He's coming off a blown out knee
Speaker 5: or whatever it was and a felony. So like, I mean,
Speaker 5: I'm sure he'll work his way in and be fine eventually.
Speaker 5: I don't expect a whole lot from him week one.
Speaker 5: We'll see though. But but there's a game wrecker, a
Speaker 5: true game record like TJ. Watt in his prime, top
Speaker 5: type game wrecker for the for Vegas, and that's that's
Speaker 5: Max Crosby. He can just he can literally just and
Speaker 5: we've seen him in these matchups almost win the game
Speaker 5: by himself. So yeah, I'm on Vegas plus the points.
Speaker 5: I'm I was kind of hoping to get it up
Speaker 5: to thirteen. It looks like it's getting bought back down
Speaker 5: and it's going the other way. I don't I don't
Speaker 5: think I'm gonna get up to the thirteen. I don't
Speaker 5: know most obviously, if you've got the if you've got
Speaker 5: the which way this line's going. But it appears that
Speaker 5: it's it's peaking at twelve twelve and a half, So.
Speaker 3: Yeah, money coming back in on Vegas now plus four,
Speaker 3: so probably we've seen this off the market, So UH.
Speaker 4: Agrees with you. So we got it's.
Speaker 3: Actually a no call about power racking because I had
Speaker 3: to upgrade Kansas City pretty significantly over what I was
Speaker 3: in the last two weeks because their offense appears to
Speaker 3: be back.
Speaker 4: They're scoring thirty points a game.
Speaker 3: Again, my homes look like mahomes and Vegas. I mean, dude,
Speaker 3: Gino just can't fucking figure it out. However, if you
Speaker 3: go all the way through the VBG, unbelievably, it has
Speaker 3: Kansas City win this game twenty three twenty two, so
Speaker 3: one point game and mostly because it's not a great
Speaker 3: matchup for Mahomes versus Stevens. He grades up flat minus
Speaker 3: half a point for Gino though, but both running games.
Speaker 4: Great out is flat. So if if Vegas.
Speaker 3: Can somehow spark the running game, that will give them
Speaker 3: advantage there. And again I'm only going over the numbers
Speaker 3: that I have.
Speaker 4: It. It hasn't worked with gent so far this year.
Speaker 3: I mean, his literally every yard he gains is after
Speaker 3: contact and long horn.
Speaker 4: You you go through all.
Speaker 3: The grades of the PFF scores of the fucking offensive line.
Speaker 4: You study that shit like a mad man.
Speaker 3: They don't run block worth a fuck like he just
Speaker 3: like if you just watch the games, every time he
Speaker 3: hits the ball, he gets hit immediately and literally every
Speaker 3: yard he gains is after contact. And that's just that's
Speaker 3: not recipes for success for running game. You have to
Speaker 3: give these guys holes.
Speaker 4: You're gonna give him a fucking chance to get started.
Speaker 3: And he's telling me do he does good things because
Speaker 3: that's what he is, but they just don't fucking do it.
Speaker 3: And this Kansas City defense is bad again as it's
Speaker 3: been against the run. This Vegas offense has been shitty
Speaker 3: running the fucking football. Now, it's where I've since I
Speaker 3: started the BBG. This is where I've seen these numbers.
Speaker 3: There's a possibility of flip here where you know, just
Speaker 3: because of the matchup.
Speaker 4: Me is I haven't been able to dig in just
Speaker 4: because of the matchup.
Speaker 3: Maybe Vegas can some lanes here against a very poorest
Speaker 3: defense against the run. It's Kansase has been all year,
Speaker 3: and I think that's the avenue that they're gonna have
Speaker 3: if they're gonna.
Speaker 4: Keep this game close.
Speaker 3: That's it, other than the fact that Kansase, like you said,
Speaker 3: just likes to play with their food.
Speaker 4: Now, what you do have working against.
Speaker 3: You on your Vegas pick here is if you're going
Speaker 3: to Dubai and you are a road dog to twenty eighteen,
Speaker 3: twenty five, twenty seven and one, so forty eight point
Speaker 3: one percent against the spread average line six point one.
Speaker 3: That's this is way higher than that though, and it's
Speaker 3: only minus point seven, So it's a coin flip trend.
Speaker 4: It's not a terrible thing.
Speaker 3: So it's nothing to keep you off a plane Vegas
Speaker 3: at all. They probably will make my card at some point.
Speaker 4: I just got to get to the rest of it.
Speaker 3: But it's Vegas for pass for me here, I'm with
Speaker 3: you one hundred percent.
Speaker 4: There's a zero chance I'm laying eleven and a half points.
Speaker 3: I don't care how good and hopefully long when we
Speaker 3: get back to that. You know, we had a sweet
Speaker 3: spot there for about that's a year and a half
Speaker 3: where you you know, you kind of came up with
Speaker 3: the Mahomes thing and we rode it and it was like,
Speaker 3: so money because they got so overvalued in the marketplace, right,
Speaker 3: so they were laying seven eight nine point like old
Speaker 3: Patriot shit. The difference was Tommy covered those fucking numbers
Speaker 3: and Patrick never fucking did. And that was like it
Speaker 3: was a golden era of just.
Speaker 5: It's it go the way it's been since it was
Speaker 5: since they traded or you know, they traded Tyreek Hill
Speaker 5: and like after that and they stopped being like the
Speaker 5: explosive offense. Since then, it's been like they win but
Speaker 5: don't cover. Yeah.
Speaker 3: So, but the market has definitely adjusted on that. So,
Speaker 3: like we didn't get those fat ass numbers for about
Speaker 3: the last year or so, we got.
Speaker 4: More even marketplace numbers. It was harder to just pick
Speaker 4: against them because sometimes they would.
Speaker 3: Cover a five or four, when in previous years they'd
Speaker 3: be laying seven or eight. So now I think we're
Speaker 3: getting back to those more inflated numbers, which is good for.
Speaker 4: Us because we can take advantage.
Speaker 3: On the other side, that's not what they do, just
Speaker 3: like you said, it's not what they do. So unless
Speaker 3: fucking Geno goes out there and those three picks, which
Speaker 3: obviously he's shown he's fucking capable of.
Speaker 5: Nah, Gino doesn't do that. That's he would uh uh,
Speaker 5: he never. He's grown out of that, grown out of that.
Speaker 3: After fourteen years in the league, he's finning fourteen years
Speaker 3: and five weeks of doing anything so far this year,
Speaker 3: he's grown out of it.
Speaker 4: All right, let's move.
Speaker 3: On to those Cleveland Browns versus Hamma Dolphins.
Speaker 4: I can't wait to see what this preseason line was.
Speaker 3: Okay, I had, Oh my god, this is embarrassing.
Speaker 5: I had.
Speaker 3: I had Miami minus seven and a half. Jesus Vegas
Speaker 3: out of minus one and a half. Cleveland is now
Speaker 3: the new favorites of two and a half. How could
Speaker 3: we be this wrong?
Speaker 4: Longhorn?
Speaker 3: Me and I mean, of course I was ten points wrong.
Speaker 3: So I have been early on, I was wrong the Dolphins, obviously,
Speaker 3: but I thought I was wrong on the Browns too
Speaker 3: until they started playing football and I was like, no,
Speaker 3: I was wronging those guys. But clearly my evaluation of
Speaker 3: the brown or the Dolphins is what led me to this.
Speaker 3: But even Vegas was wrong by five points here the Longhorn.
Speaker 4: So are we are we.
Speaker 3: Really in the position where Cleveland starting a quarterback? What
Speaker 3: is this third start, third start or second start is
Speaker 3: laying two and a half points to the Dolphins.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so this one and get the get the get
Speaker 5: the b bet the BDP ready because and it's not
Speaker 5: your normal big day pick that you would think, but
Speaker 5: this is gonna be the big Dick pick of the week.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna pop off a piece of my dick, floppy
Speaker 4: donkey dick.
Speaker 5: Sire, fuck up, we've my deck. Last thing.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna put some.
Speaker 5: My dick in oh Cleveland is gonna put it in Miami,
Speaker 5: so goddamn hard. And as you're riding down the units
Speaker 5: by Stevens, I'm gonna put you. I'm You're gonna do
Speaker 5: a little homework here because I'm doing one unit on
Speaker 5: the minus two and a half for Cleveland. I'm doing
Speaker 5: a half unit each on alternate lines because this one's
Speaker 5: gonna be a blowout. Cleveland's gonna blow the goddamn doors
Speaker 5: off this Miami team, and that's what makes the big
Speaker 5: day pick. So I want a half unit on the
Speaker 5: on the minus six and a half. I want a
Speaker 5: half unit on the minus nine and a half. Whatever
Speaker 5: those numbers come out to, and I can look them
Speaker 5: up to. I don't have as much access to to
Speaker 5: the ultimate lines as you do. Uh yes, sir, cleve
Speaker 5: one at home. I talked about it with with what
Speaker 5: Carolina's doing. Cleveland at home is just a different animal.
Speaker 5: They play well at home. They stink on the fucking road.
Speaker 5: Miami outdoors now, Miami outdoors in Cleveland. We've been to Cleveland.
Speaker 5: We know, we know what it's like in Cleveland. It ain't.
Speaker 5: It ain't the greatest weather even in like typically not
Speaker 5: bad type of weather situations. What's the weather like this
Speaker 5: weekend in Cleveland? Ninety fucking percent chance of rain. This
Speaker 5: is a fucking Cleveland won the ball pass rush the
Speaker 5: fuck out of to what he's gonna be just seeing
Speaker 5: start like this is a blowout. I'm calling for a
Speaker 5: blowout of a team that is one in five Like that.
Speaker 5: I know it's not your typical big dick pick of
Speaker 5: me picking a big underdog. This is me picking a
Speaker 5: one in five team to blow the doors off another team,
Speaker 5: albeit another one in five team. Another team is not
Speaker 5: very good. A team is imploding, having having player only meetings.
Speaker 5: That that the quarterbacks calling out about people being late
Speaker 5: to that he that reportedly he's been late to himself
Speaker 5: in years past. Like this is just chaos there. There's
Speaker 5: talks about Wattle being traded, the coach being fired, Like
Speaker 5: Miami is the biggest ship show in the world right now,
Speaker 5: and you're telling me they're gonna go to Cleveland in
Speaker 5: a rainstorm on grass that's this fucking tall and and
Speaker 5: full of water and win a game. Get the motherfuck
Speaker 5: out of here, give me Cleveland, give me them to
Speaker 5: win by ten points or more. And let's catch these tickets.
Speaker 3: I gotta plus one six and a half plus two
Speaker 3: thirty four on the nine and a half.
Speaker 5: Let's go, baby, Let's go half you know each on those.
Speaker 4: One ns half straight up?
Speaker 5: Now now before I go, before I go piss, well,
Speaker 5: you do your handicap. Do I have agreement from the
Speaker 5: big brain numbers or.
Speaker 4: Not you got nothing for me?
Speaker 5: Are you gonna you're gonna talk long enough for me
Speaker 5: to go to the party? Or do we wait for
Speaker 5: the next one.
Speaker 4: I will start the next one.
Speaker 5: You can go, okay, go ahead, all right, good, all right.
Speaker 3: We're gonna move on to those Tennessee Titans host those
Speaker 3: New England Patriots.
Speaker 5: All right.
Speaker 4: Preseason line on this one, boys and girls.
Speaker 5: You can go to party. No, go ahead, I'm good.
Speaker 4: Uh, preseason line on this one. I had, I actually
Speaker 4: had ten.
Speaker 3: This is the only game I had Tennessee favorite in.
Speaker 3: I had had Tennessee minus one. Vegas had Tennessee minus
Speaker 3: one and a half, or sorry, a New England minus
Speaker 3: one half. It's New England minus seven minus seven. This team,
Speaker 3: I mean, I said this team is gonna be bad.
Speaker 4: This team was even worse than I ever fucking imagine this,
Speaker 4: much worse. Seven. You're laying seven points on the road. WHOA,
Speaker 4: I don't know. I don't know about this well.
Speaker 5: I mean, first of all, you're they got rid of
Speaker 5: the worst coach in NFL history. And I don't say
Speaker 5: that like flippingly, like Callahan may have.
Speaker 4: Two years ago, like I don't fucking like this higher
Speaker 4: at all.
Speaker 3: Yeah, first offensive line, I was like, yeah, and he
Speaker 3: was a great offensive line coach, a shitty head coach.
Speaker 5: And he still is a great old line coach. And
Speaker 5: that's and like, that's scary too, because the the dad left. Obviously,
Speaker 5: the son got fired. So you know, usually when when
Speaker 5: the head coach gets fired, your staff stays put and
Speaker 5: they just elevate, you know, somebody to head coach. Everybody
Speaker 5: else stays the same. Well, the dad was the old
Speaker 5: line coach. The sun got fired, So obviously Dad's like, yeah,
Speaker 5: I guess I'm kind of out of here too, and
Speaker 5: he kind of did the I'll exit stage left. You
Speaker 5: don't have to plenty of money he could do that, yes,
Speaker 5: for sure. Now, but back to the point, how do
Speaker 5: you not get a huge boost just just automatically from
Speaker 5: when you don't have the worst head coach in the
Speaker 5: NFL anymore? And it wasn't like forget I know what
Speaker 5: you be. No, I can't like that that that stuff's
Speaker 5: gone now because I don't have the free square No,
Speaker 5: and and I and I gave the caveat until Callahan's fire.
Speaker 5: Well it's a good thing. These are on fucking video
Speaker 5: and we can and we can see them and play
Speaker 5: them back. So you do have the dead coach bounce
Speaker 5: obviously in this spot. And New England and so I'm
Speaker 5: gonna be on Tennessee and now I prefer seven and
Speaker 5: a half. I don't know if it's gonna take I
Speaker 5: don't know if it's gonna take back up. It is
Speaker 5: at seven and a half on some of the some
Speaker 5: of the early contest lines. You it popped at seven
Speaker 5: and a half earlier in the week. I don't know
Speaker 5: if it's gonna go back there. New England is coming
Speaker 5: off three. This is their third straight road game. They
Speaker 5: won and covered the first two one and they won
Speaker 5: and covered the first two. This is terrible. This is this,
Speaker 5: This is just to get out of town, get the win.
Speaker 5: I'm back on Tennessee. It's safe to be back on
Speaker 5: Tennessee again, I think, uh so, so yeah, give me
Speaker 5: Tennessee in the seven and a half and and I'll go.
Speaker 5: I'll be right back in thirty seconds. But I know,
Speaker 5: I fucking know I've got agreement here.
Speaker 4: Oh you're a giant liar. You told us all you
Speaker 4: would stand said first of all, now that he's gone.
Speaker 4: He never said he never said that. He never said that,
Speaker 4: he never said it. So I'm just gonna put it
Speaker 4: out there while he's gone. Uh.
Speaker 3: Now, the money is still coming in on the Patriots
Speaker 3: plus five percent, so we'll see where the market goes.
Speaker 3: We could probably wait for the seven and a half
Speaker 3: for being honest, but as far as the powering.
Speaker 4: Is go, it's a no goal here on the power rings.
Speaker 3: However, the DPG has this game great out in New
Speaker 3: England winning twenty eight to eighteen and a real fucking
Speaker 3: snooze that kid to the under forty two and a half.
Speaker 4: I like the under here.
Speaker 3: Look, both these quarterbacks are going to struggle. The running
Speaker 3: game for Tennessee is going to struggle at home. The
Speaker 3: running game for New England should be about what it
Speaker 3: normally is. There's just not gonna be a lot of
Speaker 3: scoring in this game. You know, I fully agree with
Speaker 3: taking Tennessee plus the seven. I fully indoors betting betting.
Speaker 5: I knew it. I knew it.
Speaker 4: Oh long, horseback, stop everybody's about everbody's talking about.
Speaker 5: Yeah, how much shit was he talking like that? How much?
Speaker 4: Shut up? No?
Speaker 3: I got Tennis, I got New England winning twenty to eighteen.
Speaker 3: I hope to God that I flicked that score and
Speaker 3: Tennessee actually wins this game for my under eight and
Speaker 3: a half on New England.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I need that one.
Speaker 3: Like I said, it's fully possible both these quarterbacks should struggle.
Speaker 3: The problem with this one is, like I said, Tennessee's
Speaker 3: running game is.
Speaker 4: Going to struggle here. I don't like that at all.
Speaker 3: But again, I don't have all all of my grades
Speaker 3: in front of me right now. It will be Tennessee
Speaker 3: or pass for me, so they're gonna.
Speaker 4: Be on my card. But New England will not.
Speaker 5: Be on my card. I can promise you that all right.
Speaker 4: Now, New England is ku.
Speaker 3: You missed that New England's catching four percent of the
Speaker 3: money right now, so we could get a seven and
Speaker 3: a half if we wait, if we just be patient.
Speaker 5: Oh okay, good, good, good seven and a half.
Speaker 4: So let's just let it trickle. Let's let the trickle happen.
Speaker 3: Oh I'm so in just interested to hear your opinion
Speaker 3: on this game, even though I also do have to
Speaker 3: say a rushroom break, but I will hold it for
Speaker 3: as long as I can want to hear your thoughts
Speaker 3: on this game. It's so chicgo bes and they're red
Speaker 3: hot gay quarterback. He's here, he's queer, and Longhorn is
Speaker 3: gonna have to fucking deal with him because right now
Speaker 3: to the first so many games of his career, he.
Speaker 4: Looked like no bullshit.
Speaker 3: He literally has some of the best measures of any
Speaker 3: quarterback that's ever been one all fucking time for the
Speaker 3: worst franchise for quarterbacks of all fucking time. Now, I
Speaker 3: told you when this kid was dripping, I believed in him.
Speaker 3: A newsgay, that's fine, a newsgay, it's fine.
Speaker 4: Gay whatever.
Speaker 3: But I said, this kid has the fucking talent. Can
Speaker 3: he be developed?
Speaker 4: Can he learn? That's all?
Speaker 3: That's always the fucking question with these it's and it's maddening, Longhorn,
Speaker 3: as you know you you are the draft guru, guy.
Speaker 3: It is maddening to watch these kids and all this
Speaker 3: talent and how they do or don't develop at every
Speaker 3: position and quarterback, you know, being the number one watch
Speaker 3: or whatever, but you watch them all, you guy guys.
Speaker 3: You come in like this guy's gonna be a badass
Speaker 3: offensive line, he's gonna do this and do that, and
Speaker 3: he just doesn't develop right or you got your pet
Speaker 3: cast like this kid, he's been under scouted, he's a badass,
Speaker 3: he just needs developing, and then he does. And you
Speaker 3: you've picked amazing players all through the years, like this
Speaker 3: is the guy. Just fucking listen and then they do.
Speaker 3: They pop right. But it's so maddening because it's such
Speaker 3: a personal experience with these kids. And he finally has
Speaker 3: a coach that will not not literally but figuratively, get
Speaker 3: into his ass.
Speaker 4: And fucking make him do what he wants.
Speaker 5: That's that's the key. It is the key.
Speaker 3: The fucking football on time, onto a design play that's
Speaker 3: designed to fucking work. Just get rid of the god
Speaker 3: damn ball anyway, Chicago, Uh, preseason on this one, I
Speaker 3: know it was high. I had I had the minus seventh,
Speaker 3: Vegas had my seven and a half.
Speaker 4: We're both hot. Vegas is even higher than me. We're
Speaker 4: sitting at four and a half currently. Long warn what
Speaker 4: do you go on?
Speaker 5: I'm definitely gonna land on new Ormans in this game.
Speaker 5: It's not a sounder, it's not a big day pick.
Speaker 5: It's it's nothing like that. But yeah, you got Chicago
Speaker 5: coming off three straight wins, three straight wins. This is
Speaker 5: that some might some people might call that a winning streak.
Speaker 5: I don't know, but yeah, you're one hundred percent of
Speaker 5: right to just a deva for a second, Like it's
Speaker 5: all coaching. I'm so more convinced now than ever that
Speaker 5: this league is just so much more coaching than we have.
Speaker 4: Coach.
Speaker 5: Yes man, because when we just talked about with Callahan,
Speaker 5: like like, don't be shocked, even though it's a short
Speaker 5: short time, don't be shocked if you see Ward cam
Speaker 5: Ward for Tennessee play some of his better games, Like
Speaker 5: he won't he won't go crazy with with not a
Speaker 5: reset in an offseason and all that, but like, don't
Speaker 5: be surprised if he just talent. True, yeah, so he'll
Speaker 5: still suck and have and struggle, but don't be surprised
Speaker 5: if you're like everyone's well, oh shit, he he there's
Speaker 5: a real quarterback, like like like flashes, You'll see flashes
Speaker 5: of it, just like we saw with Caleb of so
Speaker 5: you're like his very.
Speaker 3: First throw when he threw literally from the right sideline
Speaker 3: almost to the left back pie line. Yeah throw obviously, yeah,
Speaker 3: no talent, But like with Caleb Williams, we saw flashes
Speaker 3: when he had bad coaches of like oh, ship that's
Speaker 3: that's a real NFL throw, more than we seen mccam
Speaker 3: so far.
Speaker 5: But like, but now he's got a real NFL head
Speaker 5: coach years like, like someone that's a noble shit you're
Speaker 5: doing in my way with the highway type of guy.
Speaker 5: And he's taken to it. So credits a Kali. He's
Speaker 5: taking to it. He could he could reject it because
Speaker 5: he could be he could have that attitude like I'm
Speaker 5: the number one pick, I'm bigger than you, I'm making
Speaker 5: more money than you, blah blah blah. But he's taking
Speaker 5: it and they're starting to win. But with that said,
Speaker 5: there's ninety percent chance of rain coming into this. The
Speaker 5: weather's going to be an issue in some of these games.
Speaker 5: So that's not that's not all that people are talking
Speaker 5: about it, but it's gonna be an issue. And with
Speaker 5: that rain and the fact that Chicago doesn't particularly run
Speaker 5: the ball that well. They did last week we saw
Speaker 5: them run all over Chicago. That hasn't been the case
Speaker 5: for them for the most of the year. New Orleans
Speaker 5: is decent at stopping the run. So if they can't
Speaker 5: run the ball, and New Orleans does run the ball
Speaker 5: against the Chicago defense, that that's I think they're I
Speaker 5: think they were in the middle of the pack, you know,
Speaker 5: and run efficiency, run defensive efficiency. So it just lines
Speaker 5: up for New Orleans to be able to hang around
Speaker 5: in this game like they had almost every sale game
Speaker 5: besides one and then one other factor which means absolutely nothing.
Speaker 5: It's just for it's just for talking heads, which I
Speaker 5: am uh is the Spencer Rattler versus versus Caleb Williams.
Speaker 5: This goes this, this you know situation ship goes back
Speaker 5: to the Oklahoma days, the you know, Caleb taking his
Speaker 5: job and then and then Caleb transferring to to USC
Speaker 5: and then Raller, then Raleer having to going to to
Speaker 5: having to go to South Carolina. For a team that
Speaker 5: isn't very good at New Orleans to have a little
Speaker 5: bit of a chip on its shoulder as a dog
Speaker 5: weather on its side. It just lines up for the
Speaker 5: five five and a half points that they're getting. Is
Speaker 5: it's still open? Is it down to four and a half? Ah?
Speaker 5: Fuck me, So that that number is dropping. I'm on
Speaker 5: New Orleans. You gotta get it at four and a half.
Speaker 5: That that's the rock bottom number you got to get
Speaker 5: in this game. So New Orleans for me.
Speaker 4: All right, so powering is out of Chicago.
Speaker 3: However, the BBG has New Orleans six to twenty three. Okay,
Speaker 3: and that's over the total forty six and a half.
Speaker 3: But again, like Longhorner just mentioned, with the weather factor,
Speaker 3: I wouldn't trust the total on.
Speaker 4: This one, just to be honest.
Speaker 3: Now, TALEB does great out well, gaus half a point
Speaker 3: to the BBG. However, this is the best game, the
Speaker 3: best game I've ever grated.
Speaker 4: Spencer Rattler at he gains two points.
Speaker 5: Oh oh.
Speaker 3: And for the running game both running systems, So Chicago
Speaker 3: games they're not good to running ball, but they gain
Speaker 3: a half a point to what they do versus what
Speaker 3: New Orleans does it wells isn't great run the ball,
Speaker 3: but they gain a full.
Speaker 4: Point is what Chicago does.
Speaker 5: And just just for reference, that's what significant? Why is
Speaker 5: what is that? What does that tell you? With the numbers?
Speaker 4: I mean, a full point is generally like.
Speaker 5: You know, the best, the best, the best upgrade you're
Speaker 5: gonna get is that.
Speaker 4: In a running game? Yeah okay, now for quarterbacks usually
Speaker 4: three point.
Speaker 5: Right, but for running game that's about as good as
Speaker 5: an upgrades you're gonna get situational.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 3: I've seen a couple of two's pop here and there,
Speaker 3: but yeah, that's if anything. One and over is pretty elite.
Speaker 3: So from the ball, Spencer should be able.
Speaker 5: To and that.
Speaker 4: And that's the reason why they're total so hot.
Speaker 3: Because both these teams basically grade out score a lot
Speaker 3: versus each other. It should be a decently matched shootouts. However,
Speaker 3: with the weather, we'll see how that works out. But
Speaker 3: that's the reason why I've got the game at forty
Speaker 3: nine points the over runners forty six and a half.
Speaker 3: The weather may affect that, it may bog it down
Speaker 3: a little bit, but again, schematically, both these teams should
Speaker 3: have success scorning the ball. So you know, if both
Speaker 3: teams going to score the football, you always want to
Speaker 3: take the fucking dog because they're gonna be live the
Speaker 3: entire time. They should be able to move the ball
Speaker 3: and score the ball like it's it's New Orleans pass
Speaker 3: from here too, So I agree. All right, rememberving on
Speaker 3: to those Minnesota likings, they're hosting those.
Speaker 4: Philadelphia Eagles. I'm interested to see what the preseason line
Speaker 4: on was this. All right, I had Philly.
Speaker 3: Minus three and Vegas had Philly minus three, so we
Speaker 3: were locked up.
Speaker 4: On this one.
Speaker 3: Philly is now minus one and a half or so
Speaker 3: across the board.
Speaker 4: Let's see. I think that's still accurate.
Speaker 3: And the money currently is coming in on.
Speaker 4: What the fucking same.
Speaker 3: Money's plus eleven percent on the vikings right now, Longhorn,
Speaker 3: So money caming in on the vikings. Here's my problem
Speaker 3: in this game, though, if I look across the lines,
Speaker 3: it's basically one and a half. But the two sharpest
Speaker 3: books in Vegas are still setting it to at even
Speaker 3: Jews in Westgate and Circa. So the rest of the
Speaker 3: market has moved against the Eagles into the vikings, but
Speaker 3: the two sharpest books are holding it too.
Speaker 4: That gives me a little bit of pause here. But
Speaker 4: what are you going to?
Speaker 5: Well, I want the two at least to be on
Speaker 5: Minnesota here and I but I'm not liking some of
Speaker 5: the things. Like I mean, I know that the quarterback
Speaker 5: JJ McCarthy is practicing, and there has been a lot
Speaker 5: of talk from the coach that he's like gonna start him,
Speaker 5: but I haven't heard anything for sure as of our
Speaker 5: recording here right now. I don't want it to be
Speaker 5: Jj McCarthy. I like, I like the way this team
Speaker 5: is coming into form with Carson Wentz, and now that
Speaker 5: may not last the whole the whole season, because Carson
Speaker 5: Wentz has a shelf life because he's not a you know,
Speaker 5: he's he's proven that he's not a long term solution
Speaker 5: at quarterback. But I don't know that that J. J.
Speaker 5: McCarthy is a solution right now at at any point
Speaker 5: this season. So I hope that it stay that he
Speaker 5: stays with with with with Carson Wentz. Now, Carter and
Speaker 5: Mitchell are probably back for Philadelphia, so that those are
Speaker 5: those are two key pieces coming back for Philadelphia. But
Speaker 5: that offense is still dysfunctional. It's in dysfunction. It's not
Speaker 5: gonna be fixed because they hired within the building, and
Speaker 5: they hired so far down. Apparently the the the the
Speaker 5: ladder that the guy is overwhelming. He doesn't know, he
Speaker 5: doesn't know how to fix this, at least at least
Speaker 5: it's proven that he doesn't want to fix it as
Speaker 5: of yet. So there's probably gonna be a firing at
Speaker 5: some point during this year at offensive coordinator for Philly. Now,
Speaker 5: is it is it after this game? Is it is
Speaker 5: it two or three weeks from now? I don't know.
Speaker 5: We've seen this before with Philly. They will fire AOC
Speaker 5: mid year. I expected to come and and when you
Speaker 5: have a struggling offense and you've got I don't know. Okay,
Speaker 5: let's not DERAILINGO. That conversation with with with a guy.
Speaker 5: That's that's But I will say this that that that
Speaker 5: transmission transitions me into hurts off of a loss. Usually
Speaker 5: you think about teams, really good teams off a loss,
Speaker 5: that's their sweet spot. You bounce back on them. It's
Speaker 5: not the case of Philly. We've seen Philly go on
Speaker 5: these like are they are they? Yes, that's what they
Speaker 5: did and that's not typical with winning teams, but they
Speaker 5: do it. So Philly off off of a loss with hurts,
Speaker 5: they're ten and eleven straight up in the next game,
Speaker 5: seven and fourteen against the spread in the next game.
Speaker 5: So this is not the spot for them. So yeah,
Speaker 5: I'm on Minnesota. And when you were going I really
Speaker 5: want the two two and a half, I missed the
Speaker 5: boat on that. I don't know was gonna get back
Speaker 5: up there. I was there flirting with JJ McCarthy, or
Speaker 5: at least he's practicing. I don't think that the coach
Speaker 5: is gonna that's gonna help. They're not gonna go that way,
Speaker 5: and I don't think they're going to. I think I
Speaker 5: think the coach is gonna be like, let's just ride
Speaker 5: out with with Carson Wentz. Let's see how far it's
Speaker 5: gonna take us. But but you know, Minnesota is getting
Speaker 5: healthy on the old line and on defense Cashman Green
Speaker 5: van Grienkle might play. The old line is back to
Speaker 5: four fists healthy from the from the start of the year.
Speaker 5: So they're starting to They're starting to get healthy on
Speaker 5: that Minnesota side. And yeah, I like Minnesota. Oh is
Speaker 5: this a no, this isn't a sounder. You know what
Speaker 5: I pulled it. It's what this was gonna be a sounder,
Speaker 5: but I pulled it. But just because of the J J.
Speaker 5: McCarthy thing, like until I hear that it's gonna be
Speaker 5: Carson Wentz and not JJ, I can't play with with
Speaker 5: a sounder like that. But but I do like Minnesota
Speaker 5: plus one and a half, plus two, whatever highest number
Speaker 5: you can get them at.
Speaker 3: Just look up some stats here again, because I don't
Speaker 3: get to go through everything. Now the power ringing has
Speaker 3: Philly here. I've got this. It's forty three and a
Speaker 3: half as the total. I've got it graded slightly under.
Speaker 3: I've got Minnesota.
Speaker 4: Winning this game twenty to twenty through the BBG.
Speaker 3: This is a really, really, really.
Speaker 4: Bad matchup for Carson Wentz.
Speaker 3: He loses three points to the BBG, so that's as
Speaker 3: bad as you can get. However, Jalen Hurst loses half
Speaker 3: a point and Minnesot's run game grades out as flat.
Speaker 3: So that's fine. But again, Philly, this cavalst for this
Speaker 3: Philly team. And I said it to start the year.
Speaker 3: If Barkley is not gonna be Barklay, Jalen Hurts is.
Speaker 4: Not the quarterback.
Speaker 3: He's not the quarterback to carry your team for a season.
Speaker 3: And they grade up minus one point five.
Speaker 4: To the BBG against this defense.
Speaker 3: So that makes all the difference in the world. Because
Speaker 3: all of their points to the BBG last year when
Speaker 3: I had them win about seven blah blah, it all
Speaker 3: came from the running game. It all came from they
Speaker 3: were gaining that they were the only team them in
Speaker 3: Baltimore last year were the only team to gain like
Speaker 3: two points to the VBG the running game. And now
Speaker 3: both those teams are losing that much in the running,
Speaker 3: because that's how bad.
Speaker 4: It's fucking suffering.
Speaker 3: And even as bad as Scarson wins grades out, which
Speaker 3: he is, he grades up terribly versus scene, they still
Speaker 3: grade out to win because Philly's not gonna be able
Speaker 3: to score the ball without that running attack, because Jalen
Speaker 3: Hursts can't score the fucking football.
Speaker 4: He just that's not who he is. If you look
Speaker 4: at so, I just look at some stats.
Speaker 3: You mentioned their defense long morning, Philly's nineteenth right now,
Speaker 3: nineteenth and ep April play. This was the best defense
Speaker 3: in the league last year. Nineteenth and success rate, So
Speaker 3: that's just a straight nineteen. They're below average on defense.
Speaker 3: Just straight up, they are below average on defense. I'm
Speaker 3: pulling off their offense. Now, if you look at their
Speaker 3: success rate on offense overall, where are.
Speaker 4: We setting at? They can't be that low. I must
Speaker 4: have missed them.
Speaker 5: They can be that low.
Speaker 4: Jesus wait, where is Philly.
Speaker 5: Go to the bottom third.
Speaker 3: I'm looking. I'm looking for the stupid Eagles. Fine, I'm
Speaker 3: not seeing Oh they're Oh that's because I have it.
Speaker 3: Oh I've got it inverted. Sorry, boys and girls.
Speaker 4: Uh, twenty first, twenty first success rate in offense. So
Speaker 4: they are all definitions. And I said this was it
Speaker 4: last week when I had a handicap it. They're blo
Speaker 4: Irish football team.
Speaker 3: They're below average football team. That's just what. That's the reality.
Speaker 3: What the stats says the reality with their performance. I
Speaker 3: know the record doesn't quite say so right now, but
Speaker 3: like you said, they go on these streets and they
Speaker 3: are in a fucking funk right now. I don't want
Speaker 3: to bet Minnesota, particularly with Carson wins, especially as bad
Speaker 3: as he grades out. But I will give you a
Speaker 3: trend here, and this is on Minnesota.
Speaker 4: They are on the bye. Uh no, sorry, they're they're run.
Speaker 4: This is not on this game?
Speaker 5: Sorry?
Speaker 4: Uh is it not Minnesota?
Speaker 5: No? Okay, sorry they don't have a buy apparently not.
Speaker 4: Let's see week eight looking up? No, no bye?
Speaker 3: Okay, my bad, So I plugged this on the wrong spot.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, just overall, Minnesota grades have to win.
Speaker 3: I don't want Minnesota to win for sure, but why
Speaker 3: not with Carson they have an under on them. M
Speaker 3: hm No, I don't think I had, so I don't care.
Speaker 3: But either way Carson wentz he grades it's so bad.
Speaker 3: This is one of those games I'm looking at back
Speaker 3: on my board three two right now in Minnesota. We'll
Speaker 3: see when I get all the grades up there. I
Speaker 3: would not be very excited to bet either one of
Speaker 3: these teams.
Speaker 5: To be honest with you, if this was Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 5: playing quarterback for Minnesota, would you like Minnesota in this spot?
Speaker 4: Depending on how your graded out versus defense and that
Speaker 4: and that's what keeps calling because this defense.
Speaker 3: Isn't good, not gooding out terribly terribly.
Speaker 5: It was a it was a trick question because er,
Speaker 5: because I was trying to trap because Carson Wentz and
Speaker 5: Aaron Rodgers have basically the same PFF quarterback score. So
Speaker 5: if you yeah, so if you just said Aaron Rodgers,
Speaker 5: you feel good with Aaron Rodgers here, then you should
Speaker 5: feel good with Carson Wentz. But neither one or grading
Speaker 5: out particularly well, yeah I don't.
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, look, I respect the PFF grades
Speaker 3: or whatever, but we've built pretty good successor at the BBG.
Speaker 3: Just because it's such matchup base data, this is just
Speaker 3: a terrible and maybe Aaron were grade out you know,
Speaker 3: minus one versus minus three, and this would just be
Speaker 3: the matchup for him, even though there even though basically
Speaker 3: the same player, they both suck whatever, It's fine.
Speaker 5: Yeah, but teams, But teams, you can win a game
Speaker 5: nineteen to seventeen where both quarterbacks play like shit like
Speaker 5: that at the end, I'm expecting that. Yeah, at the
Speaker 5: end of the day, I don't. I don't care if
Speaker 5: Carson Wentz scores thirty winners game or if Carson Wentz
Speaker 5: scores thirteen at winters game, as long as Minnesota gets
Speaker 5: the cover because if honestly, if it gets back to
Speaker 5: two and a half, you can probably you can probably
Speaker 5: find this on my on my premium card. I missed
Speaker 5: the boat early in the week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the money's coming down on Minnesota.
Speaker 5: Too, so it's not gonna happen.
Speaker 4: Probably not going that way. Yeah, but yeah, to your point,
Speaker 4: I mean, yes, I don't.
Speaker 3: I don't expect. I don't expect either. On the offense,
Speaker 3: I expect the under. I expect the under in this game.
Speaker 3: I don't expect either offense. I mean, outside of a
Speaker 3: whatever bus to play fucking turnover touchdown something. Well, Philly
Speaker 3: loves to score touchdowns on fucking special teams, so they
Speaker 3: love doing that. Ship Outside of that, no, I expect
Speaker 3: a very low scoring game. That'sh game. One of them
Speaker 3: wins by I Field going the end. We'll see who
Speaker 3: it is, all right's one of those Sandy Diego super
Speaker 3: Chargers and they're hosting those Indiana Joneses.
Speaker 4: Oh in the preseason in this one.
Speaker 3: I know, I know, me and Vegas is gonna be
Speaker 3: wrong here just because seth Indiana Jones.
Speaker 4: So I had.
Speaker 3: I had Indy plus four and a four and a half,
Speaker 3: Vegas had them plus six. We're said that the Chargers
Speaker 3: minus one and a half long minus one and a half.
Speaker 3: Huge downgrade on your boy, Herbs. I don't know, it's
Speaker 3: it seems like a lot. It seems like a lot.
Speaker 5: Yeah, look, I love the Chargers here. This is gonna
Speaker 5: be the most the Colts are gonna be the most
Speaker 5: public dog spot ever. Everyone everyone's gonna tease them up,
Speaker 5: Everyone's gonna take them plus the two. How can how
Speaker 5: can the best team in the NFL be underdogs? They're
Speaker 5: the best, Like this is just gonna be the public dog,
Speaker 5: and look, the public dog, the public wins sometimes.
Speaker 4: We just saw this.
Speaker 3: We just saw this and we called it and we
Speaker 3: had a trend on it when they were undefeated and
Speaker 3: where they go to.
Speaker 5: The Rams, the Rams, same building, same building.
Speaker 3: Bad dog, Like, how could you be a dog when
Speaker 3: you're undefeated?
Speaker 5: Yes, so, And to be fair, there was some fuckery
Speaker 5: they could have won. They could have won that game.
Speaker 5: But that that the way foot ball go. And in
Speaker 5: this spot, look the Chargers are. They started the season
Speaker 5: underrated and they were beating teams as dogs, and we
Speaker 5: had value on them as the dogs. When when the
Speaker 5: year started, then they got overrated. And so huh, no,
Speaker 5: I'm talking without Chargers. They start remember three and oh
Speaker 5: against their own division, like and they weren't dogs in
Speaker 5: every game, but you know what I mean, Like they
Speaker 5: started three and oh uh certainly first week against against
Speaker 5: uh Kansas City when they were dug. Yeah, so like
Speaker 5: so like they overachieved to start the year. Then they
Speaker 5: had some injuries, were overinflated off the three and o,
Speaker 5: and the value was the other way. I gainst the
Speaker 5: teams that were playing, and we had some cashes on
Speaker 5: some of that. Now we're getting I think to the
Speaker 5: other side. You know, Joe Waltz coming back this week.
Speaker 5: This is a hardball spot. I just think that that
Speaker 5: that the all the public and all the money is
Speaker 5: gonna be on Indy and that's that. That's enough right there.
Speaker 5: Both Steven's like like, I'm not a I don't have
Speaker 5: the models like like bos stephas does like like just
Speaker 5: to put peel the curtain back, like like both Stephas
Speaker 5: has all the numbers, like he tells you about every week.
Speaker 5: He's got all the models and this and that and
Speaker 5: all these different things that he tells you. I don't
Speaker 5: have that. I have historical knowledge. And I fade the public.
Speaker 5: I fade the narrative, whatever the narrative is. That's what
Speaker 5: I'm looking to fade always. Now I look for other
Speaker 5: things to back me up along that way. But that's
Speaker 5: how I do it. And nobody wants to fucking Chargers here.
Speaker 5: Nobody wants the Chargers here. Everyone wants the underdog best
Speaker 5: team in the NFL. So give me, give me, give
Speaker 5: me harball to just to just this is a hardball spot.
Speaker 5: He's a he's a sixty percent ish head coach in
Speaker 5: the NFL. That's just what he is. And these are
Speaker 5: the top of games that he wins. So give me
Speaker 5: the Charges at home to get the coach the second
Speaker 5: loss of their season and the same goddamn building through seven.
Speaker 3: Weeks all right, so on this one, look to be
Speaker 3: honest with you feeling wise, like spot wise, I'm one
Speaker 3: with you.
Speaker 4: Mathematically, I just can't get there.
Speaker 3: Just because I mean, both these teams grade out literally
Speaker 3: like the BPG hasn't twenty three to twenty three.
Speaker 4: Tie, which is to the under which you know, forty
Speaker 4: eight and a half.
Speaker 3: I kind of feel a little bit good about that.
Speaker 3: The reason why I do herbs grades out flat here.
Speaker 3: This is a bad grade out for Indiana Jones. He
Speaker 3: loses a point in half of the VPG and they
Speaker 3: lose half a point in the running game. Now, the
Speaker 3: Chargers grade out flat with their running game. But the
Speaker 3: Chargers running game has been so hit or miss this year,
Speaker 3: you know, so overall it grades out of the tie. Now,
Speaker 3: everything Longhorn said is correct. This is the spot for
Speaker 3: the Chargers. This is not the spot for Indy. It
Speaker 3: would have to be the Chargers passed from me here.
Speaker 3: I look back at the buckets. Indy is getting the money,
Speaker 3: so and that's the money. When I said the money,
Speaker 3: that's a that's a bet for splinter or bet split
Speaker 3: percentage between tickets and money.
Speaker 4: They're getting it.
Speaker 3: And that's been a very good indicator for us for
Speaker 3: the last years, basically whoever's.
Speaker 4: Getting the money, it's basically been hitting at sixty percent.
Speaker 3: So if you just took one indicator overall, you're winning
Speaker 3: sixty percent. So now it's a long time between when
Speaker 3: we're recording now and game day to where that metric lands.
Speaker 3: I usually grade it on Saturday afternoon, and that's generally
Speaker 3: when I try to put the picks. If I'm betting
Speaker 3: the whole board, which I will again this week, that's
Speaker 3: when I'll wait to We could see it's only like
Speaker 3: eleven percent right now, that could easily flip. I wanted
Speaker 3: to flip because I definitely don't want to be on
Speaker 3: Indy here.
Speaker 4: I think everything one Horne just said is correct.
Speaker 3: It's it's this is one of those games the Chargers
Speaker 3: are gonna go achieve their goals.
Speaker 4: That they've set before them.
Speaker 3: This has to be the game that they This has
Speaker 3: to be a game they wins.
Speaker 5: And and how long is Daniel Jones. It's a great story.
Speaker 5: Love the story. Look, and I don't think he's gonna
Speaker 5: like turn into a pumpkin obviously as we're as we're
Speaker 5: approaching Halloween. But he's not gonna be perfect like that.
Speaker 5: He is still Daniel M f and Jones, so like
Speaker 5: he's got a game in him coming that's just gonna
Speaker 5: be a.
Speaker 3: It's a bad match up for him for what San
Speaker 3: Diego does schematically, for what he thrives, and so he's
Speaker 3: set up to.
Speaker 4: Fail in this game.
Speaker 5: San Diego slash La working on La Chargers. We're not
Speaker 5: quite got there yet.
Speaker 4: Win a playoff game. Win a playoff game, and I'll
Speaker 4: consider calling.
Speaker 5: You there you go, there you go, Chargers. That's all
Speaker 5: you gotta do.
Speaker 4: All right, let's move one of.
Speaker 3: Those Dan Burr Broncos Hilsen, oh those New York football jus.
Speaker 3: All right, in this one, I had the Giants plus nine,
Speaker 3: Vegas seven plus seven and a half.
Speaker 4: We're sitting at.
Speaker 5: Seven seven consensus.
Speaker 4: Let's see where it opened at though, eight, so it
Speaker 4: opened closer to my number.
Speaker 3: But the market has spoken, and the market loves the
Speaker 3: bash bros In New York with those fucking two monkeys.
Speaker 5: Or I'm glad they're white and when you're calling the monkeys,
Speaker 5: that's that's gonna be problematic.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're white boys. Nobody, nobody can cancel us over that.
Speaker 4: So uh, fair enough? What do you got on your
Speaker 4: New York Giants.
Speaker 5: Oh man, they're coming in with all this white boy swag.
Speaker 5: I mean, like, this feels like the most trappy.
Speaker 3: This is the whitest game of all, Like these two
Speaker 3: white boys leading seem into one of the whitest towns
Speaker 3: in all of America, and.
Speaker 4: Then we're like, it's like the White Boy Bowl, I
Speaker 4: mean basically.
Speaker 5: Pretty much pretty much. And I want to be on
Speaker 5: the seven and a half for sure. Now at seven,
Speaker 5: I'm losing. I'm losing. This feels like a seven point game.
Speaker 5: I don't even I don't know how this is good. Now,
Speaker 5: this either feels like a seven point game or the
Speaker 5: most trappy seven and a half, if that's what the
Speaker 5: number that you're looking at is in the world. And
Speaker 5: we get slow death to a twenty three to ten
Speaker 5: spare me to death bow Knicks performance that somehow they get.
Speaker 5: They get a fucking pick six that takes it from
Speaker 5: a seventeen sixteen to ten Denver lead to a twenty
Speaker 5: three to ten Denver win. Like, just this feels trappy,
Speaker 5: Like I don't have a big feeling either way on this.
Speaker 5: I'm I'm probably staying away from this one certainly at seven.
Speaker 5: I'm staying away because you can't bet Denver. You just
Speaker 5: you can't lay these points with the way Bonicks play.
Speaker 5: You literally can't. You're you're just I mean, you might
Speaker 5: win if you do, but you just logically you cannot
Speaker 5: make a case points. Yeah, you can't do it. Like so,
Speaker 5: so I won't do it until until I see Bownicks
Speaker 5: play the way he played towards the end of last year.
Speaker 5: He is a can't bet player at a big number.
Speaker 5: But on the other side, you know the the I
Speaker 5: mean I don't they're they're coming off these wins and
Speaker 5: all this swag, they're this crash is coming like it's
Speaker 5: it is still a rookie quarterback. It is still a
Speaker 5: white running back. That is, he plays hard as fuck.
Speaker 5: Don't get me wrong. I would love give me players
Speaker 5: like that on my team all day long. Like I
Speaker 5: want a player like that on my team.
Speaker 6: But but not because he's a wife, But it's just
Speaker 6: because he plays hard. But like, but like a player
Speaker 6: like that is gonna be maximized when you get a
Speaker 6: player like uh.
Speaker 5: A Jamier Gibbs with Detroit. If if if the Giants
Speaker 5: want to be serious about what they're building. That's fine.
Speaker 5: You can have your David Montgomery slash scatter Bow. You
Speaker 5: can have him, but you've got to have the lightning
Speaker 5: to go with it. If you're just running at Scatterbow
Speaker 5: and you're just punching in there for three and a
Speaker 5: half four yards of care, that ain't gonna work. It's
Speaker 5: not going to work. You gotta have the lightning with
Speaker 5: the thunder. So it just feels long story short. It
Speaker 5: feels trappy to take the seven and a half with
Speaker 5: the Giants, but I cannot take Denver. So it's a
Speaker 5: stay away game from me, all right.
Speaker 3: So I didn't run any numbers on this game because
Speaker 3: I don't have enough data on uh, what's his name
Speaker 3: the quarterback.
Speaker 5: For Jackson Dark, Jackson Dark.
Speaker 3: But we've got the just looking at the eighth best
Speaker 3: success rate rush defense in Denver. So look, I'm I
Speaker 3: would never lay these points, but this is it's a
Speaker 3: past man.
Speaker 4: I'll just keep it simple one, all right, all right?
Speaker 3: Moving all those Arizona bien I don't know, maybe who knows,
Speaker 3: who knows they're holds.
Speaker 4: Those green bar packers though, and preseason on this.
Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna be will So I had this pick them.
Speaker 3: Vegas had it at Arizona plus one and a half.
Speaker 3: We're sitting at six and a half with girls, So
Speaker 3: me and Vegas way the fuck off on this game.
Speaker 4: So long home? What do you got?
Speaker 5: What I am drawing? I don't know if it's a
Speaker 5: seven beers or it's just I don't know what it is.
Speaker 5: But what's the what's the quarterback for? Yeah? B set,
Speaker 5: that's it's it's look I rolled down.
Speaker 3: Because by the way, six and a half and market
Speaker 3: moving towards seven.
Speaker 5: Jesus, So I don't I don't care literally which quarterback
Speaker 5: it is. I'm at the point I don't care because
Speaker 5: because this is the sweet spot for Arizona. Now I'm
Speaker 5: not This isn't gonna be on my card more than likely,
Speaker 5: this isn't gonna be in any of my contents, more
Speaker 5: than likely. But this is the spot for Arizona, no
Speaker 5: matter what quarterback you got. And and green Bay wake
Speaker 5: me up the next time Green Bay plays a full
Speaker 5: game on offense and defense to where they look like,
Speaker 5: oh my god, this is is green Bay gonna win
Speaker 5: Super Bowl? Is Greenmay gonna win a game that that
Speaker 5: that that against a good team. I don't know, so
Speaker 5: you are so like they're.
Speaker 4: So Philadelphia, Like, yes, it looks like they look.
Speaker 3: Interested and then uninterested so often like remember when Philly
Speaker 3: went on I mean even last year when they won
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl run like there were points and games
Speaker 3: like do they even care that we're playing football right now?
Speaker 4: What what are they doing?
Speaker 5: Yeah? And you don't. And you don't go on the
Speaker 5: road in the NFL against a team that's historically a
Speaker 5: good dog spot and win games by margin when you're
Speaker 5: playing like that. So yeah, this is a quick, easy
Speaker 5: handicap for me. Give me Arizona. And I don't care
Speaker 5: who's playing quarterback.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't have.
Speaker 3: Any numbers on this game again because I don't know
Speaker 3: what quarterback explained, not that it really fucking matters, as
Speaker 3: we said, But if you look at success right on offense, though,
Speaker 3: green Bay is the number two success right on offense,
Speaker 3: right behind Indiana Jones and the Colts. And if you
Speaker 3: look at defense, oh, let's just look, let's just pull
Speaker 3: up Arizona Dolphins. Sorry, Arizona on offense is twenty ninth,
Speaker 3: twenty nine. They're only ahead of the Dolphins, the Titans,
Speaker 3: and the fucking Browns. They have been awful, like Kyler
Speaker 3: has been so bad. He's been so bad on defense.
Speaker 3: You've got green Bay sitting at eleventh, Arizona twenty third.
Speaker 3: There's seven point home dogs for a reason. But again,
Speaker 3: like you said, green Bay likes to play with their food.
Speaker 4: Six and a half. Ah, I mean, green Bay is
Speaker 4: not gonna make my card.
Speaker 3: But if I had to throw a nickel on it,
Speaker 3: if I had to bet it, I'd lay the six
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 4: I'm not laying seven. Just a bad number to.
Speaker 5: Lay, all right. Well, if if I had anything, just
Speaker 5: give me the point, like a in an online contest
Speaker 5: where you got to pick every game. I'm taking the
Speaker 5: points and I'm i mean, hats off to green Bay
Speaker 5: if you can.
Speaker 4: I'm not taking the six and a half. I'm just
Speaker 4: not gonna do it, all right.
Speaker 3: So I do have one trend on this though, and
Speaker 3: it is for the Cardinals. Actually, sorry, change my opinion.
Speaker 3: I forgot I have the trend. If you're all going
Speaker 3: on to the Bay home dog to twenty eighteen, twenty eight,
Speaker 3: and twenty and two fifty eight point three percent against
Speaker 3: the spread, one point seven percent ats marginal, a line
Speaker 3: of four point three that gets us exactly through the seven.
Speaker 3: So again, I wouldn't lay seven. Six and a half
Speaker 3: is very iffy on that trend.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's not huge, that's not I was one and better,
Speaker 5: but that's that's good enough, good enough.
Speaker 3: But it literally gets you exactly to seven points with
Speaker 3: the ats margin on the average line, so literally you're
Speaker 3: on the cutting line. So this game historically is gonna
Speaker 3: come down to one mistake by green Bay that lets
Speaker 3: Arizona cover or one mistake by Arizona that lets screen
Speaker 3: Bay beat them by fucking double digits. All right, all right,
Speaker 3: let's go on to Oh it's one of the one
Speaker 3: of the oldest robberies.
Speaker 4: Definitely one of the games of the week. It's those Dallas.
Speaker 5: Oh boys, now we got some action. We got some action.
Speaker 4: All right on this one.
Speaker 3: I had Washington minus three, Vegas had them minus two
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 4: Money been coming in, pouring in on Dallas.
Speaker 3: Here, it's down to one and a half or so.
Speaker 3: Here live, let's refresh this.
Speaker 4: And get a correct number here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's fuck drafting size of two and a half.
Speaker 3: So if you like the cows, go there. Let's call
Speaker 3: it about one point two five because minus one anywhere.
Speaker 3: It's at its minus one seventeen, so one one and
Speaker 3: a half. Skins road favorites your long horder.
Speaker 5: You got Draft Kings just giving out the candy. So yeah,
Speaker 5: I'm all over the Cowboys here. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 5: both he was get that sounder ready because we're definitely
Speaker 5: gonna be hitting that sounder on this one. So let
Speaker 5: me know. I need to hear it. I want to
Speaker 5: hear it. Hit that sounder, baby.
Speaker 4: I'm looking.
Speaker 5: Where is the head hit that sounder?
Speaker 4: I am looking for the sounder.
Speaker 5: No, that's not it.
Speaker 4: Hold on, I thought.
Speaker 5: You didn't.
Speaker 4: I didn't.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, yeah we st.
Speaker 5: That ain't What did you do? Oh? Here we go?
Speaker 5: There we go. Hit that sound there it is. Hey,
Speaker 5: forget the last twenty seconds. Did you heard? Because Dallas
Speaker 5: is gonna win this game. I don't know how AI
Speaker 5: is gonna cut this up. But let me you know what,
Speaker 5: let's let's let's trick Ai po Steve's let's trick them
Speaker 5: in this game. Bosiphas hit that sounder because Dallas is
Speaker 5: gonna win this game against now one unit on the
Speaker 5: money line. I'm not I'm not doubling up. I'm not
Speaker 5: taking I'm not I'm not taking the one and a half.
Speaker 5: It's just it's just not a it's not a good
Speaker 5: to double up. Now. If you can get the DraftKings
Speaker 5: two and a half, yeah, give me some of that
Speaker 5: two and a half and the money line. But but
Speaker 5: based on how we're gonna great to hear, just give
Speaker 5: me the money line for one unit. As far as
Speaker 5: the game goes, we got CD coming back. That that's
Speaker 5: basically the big line movement here is just CD coming back.
Speaker 5: He's worth of the least a full point. You'll probably
Speaker 5: see this line moved even further once it gets more
Speaker 5: and more out of the public. We're not one hundred
Speaker 5: percent sure on who's playing receiver for Washington. More than
Speaker 5: likely mcclarin's come up plus one oh five. That's what
Speaker 5: I got last eight games in this matchup seven and
Speaker 5: one to the Cows, Ats Dak ten to three ats
Speaker 5: versus Washington on his in.
Speaker 4: His last division.
Speaker 5: He fucking owns this division. He owns the team, Like
Speaker 5: you've got to have a real good reason to go
Speaker 5: against him here. And the way Deck's playing right like
Speaker 5: if he was playing bad, you know, like like currently
Speaker 5: like okay, Dak own the division. But he's playing back.
Speaker 5: Uh uh, he's playing lights out, he's playing MVP level
Speaker 5: on offense, and he's got his guy coming back. Just
Speaker 5: give me the Cols here. Let's not overthink this one,
Speaker 5: all right.
Speaker 3: So Kyle ranking here has Washington. I've got Washington win
Speaker 3: this game twenty eight to twenty four. That's to the
Speaker 3: under the kid at fifty.
Speaker 4: Four and a half.
Speaker 5: Yeah, massive over under massive massive.
Speaker 3: Now Dak does gain having point to the BBG versus
Speaker 3: Washington defense. However, this is Jay Daniels's best game.
Speaker 4: He's great. Out with me, say this every against Cowboys.
Speaker 4: This defense is of course to the historical bat. Historical bat. Yes,
Speaker 4: he ain't two point five.
Speaker 3: Now the Cal's game half a point. Also on the
Speaker 3: rushing game versus Washington rushing defense. Again, this defense isn't great,
Speaker 3: but the Redskins in a point and a half against
Speaker 3: this Cowboys rushing defense.
Speaker 4: Look, the Cows right now.
Speaker 3: Are leading the board three to two. But again, I
Speaker 3: still have several buckets left the grade and they do
Speaker 3: have the money coming in, so I don't totally disagree
Speaker 3: with it. But as the numbers great out, it's gonna
Speaker 3: have to be if if the money shifts anymore. If
Speaker 3: it gets down to one, it shifts back to Washington.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to be opposite.
Speaker 4: Of you here.
Speaker 3: I can't take a Cowboys team versus Here's what I'm
Speaker 3: open with the cows.
Speaker 4: It's very, very hard.
Speaker 3: And I was on Carolina last week and we want
Speaker 3: we won outright.
Speaker 4: We got three and a half points.
Speaker 3: We won outright, And that was the mass of the
Speaker 3: team that can't score the ball, cannot score the football
Speaker 3: this Washington can't absolutely score the football.
Speaker 5: They do at home. Carolina scores at home. They can't
Speaker 5: score on the road. But but point point taking, point taking.
Speaker 3: Versus a team that absolutely can score the football. I mean,
Speaker 3: Dak almost has to be perfect. Never Now City Lamb
Speaker 3: come back, that's a huge, huge get. But again, the
Speaker 3: offense hasn't been the problem even that. Like I was
Speaker 3: wrong with my handicapping them in the first week of
Speaker 3: the mount I think I lost that game against them.
Speaker 3: They said, hey, they can't score with that Citdee Lamb.
Speaker 3: The fuck they can't. Dak's throwing bombs to fuck whatever
Speaker 3: the fucking.
Speaker 5: Other guy's name is, sorry, George Pickens.
Speaker 3: George Pickens. So the offense has not been the problem.
Speaker 3: So them scoring the ball not gonna be a problem.
Speaker 3: Them stopping anybody else from scoring is always gonna be problem.
Speaker 3: And now you have an offense so that comes in
Speaker 3: that absolutely can score the football and does score the
Speaker 3: football every week.
Speaker 4: I can't do it.
Speaker 3: I cannot get there on the cows here because and
Speaker 3: not not to say that they won't or whatever win,
Speaker 3: but it's.
Speaker 5: Just the trends, man, that's the that's the that's the trends.
Speaker 3: Happen in a shootout tide game like this, like you know,
Speaker 3: again the over runners fifty in a week full of
Speaker 3: overrunners between forty two and forty four, and it's gross
Speaker 3: ass league with shitty quarter back play.
Speaker 4: This fifty four and a half.
Speaker 5: Now watch this one be a twenty three or twenty
Speaker 5: just like what the fuck happened? That's the way that
Speaker 5: will go. But no, I just think that if you're low.
Speaker 3: Scoring until like the second half, and then they're both
Speaker 3: gonna just explode.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think, all right.
Speaker 3: What's uh, what's your over runner on the first half
Speaker 3: of this week?
Speaker 5: Well, if if it's fifty four and a half, it's
Speaker 5: probably gonna be twenty seven and a half. I would guess,
Speaker 5: you know, if it was twenty eight and a half,
Speaker 5: but then you're gonna have a total more like fifty
Speaker 5: six fifty seven, which you're not gonna get in the NFL,
Speaker 5: then I might be inclined. But at that twenty seven,
Speaker 5: twenty seven and a half, Nah, it's not it's not
Speaker 5: a bad thought. It's not a bad thought. But you know,
Speaker 5: like these these two quarterbacks could come out against these
Speaker 5: shitty defenses and just and just light them up to start.
Speaker 5: But I don't.
Speaker 3: BPG said they're going to and the BBG said they're
Speaker 3: both gonna be able to run the ball. Now I think,
Speaker 3: I honestly think the difference in this game is going
Speaker 3: to be which team actually commits to the run so
Speaker 3: that they both should have success. Now, it was said
Speaker 3: early on about uh Shoddy as they like to call him,
Speaker 3: that he was gonna be very committed to run. He's
Speaker 3: not been committed to the run now for a good reason.
Speaker 3: They haven't been able to run the ball very well.
Speaker 3: Upside of like maybe one game their offensive line has
Speaker 3: not done very well. Longworre told you about them going
Speaker 3: in the season. But here they do actually have a
Speaker 3: matchup which they should be successful. So if the Cowboys
Speaker 3: will be committed to the run, that's really their avenue
Speaker 3: of victory here because they should have success running the
Speaker 3: ball against the Washington defense. We know Washington's gonna be
Speaker 3: committed to the run, is what they fucking do. They
Speaker 3: have all their plays and stuff that they run off
Speaker 3: of that that's where Daniels has all of success. I
Speaker 3: think the difference in this one is gonna be the
Speaker 3: fact that Daniels should have more success than Dak Buoba
Speaker 3: Ceedee Lamb coming back.
Speaker 4: Who knows.
Speaker 3: I think they're definitely live dogs. It's just with the
Speaker 3: numbers great out right now, it's definitely I gotta be
Speaker 3: on the office side of those.
Speaker 5: One very eleven dogs, very eleven dogs. All right.
Speaker 3: Moving on, it's those San Francisco I guess forty nine
Speaker 3: ers with left of them hosting those hot Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 4: I'll go ahead and quote the preseason lines on.
Speaker 3: This, although it's not even the same football football team.
Speaker 3: I had than minus seven. Vegas had a minus six
Speaker 3: and a half. We're sitting at one and a half. Obviously,
Speaker 3: long were huge down grades to the injury. This is
Speaker 3: not the same Fancisco team. That we thought was coming
Speaker 3: into the season. So you know we're left of what
Speaker 3: we got.
Speaker 4: What do you got on those.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll go ahead and take care for you because
Speaker 5: that sounder we're taking Atlanta two units this one, bo
Speaker 5: seves two units on the money line in this game.
Speaker 5: Fred Warner being out on this defense is the death
Speaker 5: the death of this defense. Like they were already dealing
Speaker 5: with Bosa being out number one and young players that
Speaker 5: that Sala has trying to, like, you know, get in
Speaker 5: the right spots, make plays when they can here and
Speaker 5: there and the only one nineteen I'll take it. The
Speaker 5: only way that that Sala can have success from the
Speaker 5: sideline of getting all these young players to be in
Speaker 5: the right spots to play, to play sound defense is
Speaker 5: if you have a field general on the field line
Speaker 5: of people out the correct way. They've played a lot
Speaker 5: of games without without Bosa in their in their history
Speaker 5: as the forty nine ers, because he's injury prone. They
Speaker 5: don't have a history of playing without Fred Warner. So
Speaker 5: so and I've got it right here, seven and fourteen
Speaker 5: straight up without Bosa? What's there are they own? Fourteen
Speaker 5: without Warner and Bosa together, Like I don't know what
Speaker 5: that normal people like it, it can't be good. So yeah,
Speaker 5: everything points to an offense with a lot of moving
Speaker 5: parts and misdirection for Atlanta, with weapons that can hit
Speaker 5: you at all points of the field. Bijon Pitts has
Speaker 5: had a resurgon with Pennix and Drake London becoming a
Speaker 5: true number one. This is gonna be chaos for San France.
Speaker 5: Like I know that the quarterback's coming back, I know
Speaker 5: the Kittle's coming back. Great. The quarterback is still not healthy.
Speaker 5: And is he good if everything's perfect around him? Yeah,
Speaker 5: he's good. If everything's not perfect around him, is he
Speaker 5: just a run of the meal, your average starting quarterback? Whatever.
Speaker 5: I love the team that Atlanta has right now. I
Speaker 5: don't love the team that San Frans actually putting on
Speaker 5: the field because of injury. Wrong team favor, wrong team favor.
Speaker 5: Give me Atlanta to win this game.
Speaker 3: I didn't grade this game just because all the injuries
Speaker 3: and everything and the quarterback n startainty.
Speaker 4: But I agree with you on.
Speaker 3: Look, there's no difference to me between Mac Jones and
Speaker 3: Rock Party. Rock Party was the last pick of the
Speaker 3: draft for a reason. I watched the kid play his
Speaker 3: whole career in college. I've been saying it, Yeah he's fine,
Speaker 3: He's not that dude. If he comes back, fine, They're
Speaker 3: so beat up and so injured, you know. And I
Speaker 3: had this funny thing is as far as Vegas and
Speaker 3: I were off on this line, I was higher than Vegas.
Speaker 5: By quite a bit.
Speaker 3: We talked about the preseason podcast. I was so much
Speaker 3: higher in Vegas than Atlanta coming into the season, and
Speaker 3: I was still this fucking wrong on this line. And
Speaker 3: that just should tell you what the downgrade has been
Speaker 3: because of the injuries to this team.
Speaker 4: I don't know to make the San Francisco team anymore.
Speaker 3: You know, we you know, Longhorn, we had we both
Speaker 3: lost a teaser on the Rams two weeks ago when
Speaker 3: this was a mass unit going in to face them.
Speaker 3: And the Rams are a better team than Atlanta, there's
Speaker 3: no doubt about that. And they beat them, So can
Speaker 3: they can they steal that same kind of resiliency at home?
Speaker 4: Maybe maybe they can. I don't know.
Speaker 3: I don't know that I can get involved in this game.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 3: I don't know if Atlanta is ready to go on
Speaker 3: the road and win this game again. And I was
Speaker 3: hired on Atlanta. Then you was hired Atlanta in the market,
Speaker 3: but I still don't know if they're ready to go
Speaker 3: do this.
Speaker 5: So to that point, we talked about in the summer
Speaker 5: podcast that we did like like talking without these teams
Speaker 5: going in the season, Atlanta being so bad drafting on
Speaker 5: defense in their history. Well, and we talked about how
Speaker 5: they took the two first round pass rushers Jalen Walker
Speaker 5: out of Georgia, James Price Junior out of Tennessee mortgage
Speaker 5: the future a little bit to do that, and then
Speaker 5: they also took Watts Xavier Watts out of out of
Speaker 5: Notre Dame in the second or third round. I can't
Speaker 5: remember all three of them starting, all three of them producing,
Speaker 5: sprinkling some some free angines. They brought on the defense,
Speaker 5: this defense, Leonard Floyd being one of them. This defense
Speaker 5: has turned into Okay, we've got something here. We've got now,
Speaker 5: we got something we can build around. A mix of old,
Speaker 5: a mix of young. It's all coming together. And when
Speaker 5: you have this this type of this cohesion going, it
Speaker 5: only gets better. As the season gets going. And we
Speaker 5: already see what's going on with the offense on on
Speaker 5: that side of the ball. It just we we got
Speaker 5: two ships passing in the night. Here, we got San
Speaker 5: Fran sitting at whatever their record is, their record that
Speaker 5: they're they're four and two, and we got and and
Speaker 5: they're going the wrong way and in the night, and
Speaker 5: we got Atlanta three and two going the other way
Speaker 5: to night. So I think I think by the end
Speaker 5: of the year, these two ships are heading in opposite directions.
Speaker 5: And this this line here is gonna look ridiculous in
Speaker 5: about six seven weeks. So yeah, give me a Lanta
Speaker 5: to win this game.
Speaker 4: I mean it already does if you look at it.
Speaker 3: Like I said, press projection between me and Vegas said,
Speaker 3: I mean, we're already six points away.
Speaker 4: Yeah, what we had.
Speaker 3: So Atlanta defense eighteenth right down success rate, that's a
Speaker 3: big improvement from where they started the season.
Speaker 5: So yeah, with three rookie starting look at.
Speaker 3: The offense success rate twelve again, big improvement from starting
Speaker 3: the season. So I agree with you. They're trending the
Speaker 3: right direction. They're trending more towards what my numbers said
Speaker 3: that they would be.
Speaker 4: Now we'll see where they end up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, let's move on to those d Detroit Lions.
Speaker 4: They got what just.
Speaker 5: A Monday night. You know, I can do the Monday
Speaker 5: night at the double header.
Speaker 3: We got the double header Monday night. That all right,
Speaker 3: free season. On this one, I had Detroit minus four.
Speaker 3: Vegas had them minus three and a half. We're sitting
Speaker 3: currently at minus five and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, minus five and a half.
Speaker 3: More money, money, money, money, money, money coming in on
Speaker 3: the lines.
Speaker 4: That opened four and a half. So even bigger favorites
Speaker 4: than I projected them, Longhorn on this one. So what
Speaker 4: do you got here?
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is kind of the exact opposite of how
Speaker 5: I felt about the Kansas City Detroit matchup last week.
Speaker 5: It was just a spot for Kansas City for me
Speaker 5: the way I do it, this one, it's a spot
Speaker 5: for Detroit. You've got you've got against the spread, goliaths
Speaker 5: going up against each other. Here, Baker against the spread,
Speaker 5: just a monster at Tampa Bay sixteen and eight against
Speaker 5: the spread since he's been there. You just as at
Speaker 5: sixteen and eight as a dog against the spread. You
Speaker 5: you literally have to have a great fucking reason. Yes,
Speaker 5: you have a great reason to go against them. But
Speaker 5: on the other side, you got Detroit. That's basically a
Speaker 5: seventy seventy percent cover Ats almost put them in any situation.
Speaker 5: They're seventy percent across the board. And but then add
Speaker 5: to that Detroit off of a straight up loss, which
Speaker 5: are coming off a loss against against Kansas City. They're
Speaker 5: twenty and eight ATS the next game, including eleven straight
Speaker 5: ATS wins. Coming off a loss like this is just
Speaker 5: like something has to give in this tug of war
Speaker 5: of ATS strengths and what's gonna what's gonna be the
Speaker 5: deciding factor for me? Are the injuries for Detroit. You
Speaker 5: got you got McNeil coming back there. They're Pro Bowl
Speaker 5: defensive tackle. Adding to that to that defensive mix, and
Speaker 5: you've got Taylor Decker their Pro Bowl off. It's a
Speaker 5: tackle coming back. So they're getting healthier in the trenches.
Speaker 5: And on the other side, Baker is on his fourth, fifth,
Speaker 5: and sixth receiver and his three receivers and his three
Speaker 5: receiver set. He's on number four, five, and six. Look,
Speaker 5: the dude's been playing like an MVP. He's overcome all
Speaker 5: this and will he do some bakers stupid ridiculous magic
Speaker 5: in this game. One hundred percent he will. But I
Speaker 5: have to be something has to give. I has to
Speaker 5: be on Detroit.
Speaker 4: Here did you see the test Johnson.
Speaker 5: Yes, where he thought they were tanning MVP for him.
Speaker 5: That was not for you, homeboy. Now you gotta do
Speaker 5: a little more. But like but but to that, like
Speaker 5: like Baker is taking these guys that are you know,
Speaker 5: late draft picks nobody's anyway has heard of and still
Speaker 5: winning games. That has to give us some point, or
Speaker 5: does it. But but for me, I'm wanna be on Detroit.
Speaker 5: This is a spot for Detroit for me. And you
Speaker 5: gotta get it under six though, don't don't wait for
Speaker 5: to get to six and might get to six. Get
Speaker 5: it under the key number six, all right.
Speaker 3: So powering is great out Tampa Bay at this number.
Speaker 3: The money is still coming on Detroit though, And I
Speaker 3: don't have a full bucket.
Speaker 4: Grade, so I could get to six, could get to six,
Speaker 4: so total fifty two and a half, it's a no
Speaker 4: call for me. I have it at fifty two.
Speaker 3: I've got Detroit winning this game twenty seven to twenty five,
Speaker 3: which would be a Tampa Bay cover. However, you know,
Speaker 3: it should be a decent matchup for golf against a
Speaker 3: half point, should be a decent matchup for Baker, though
Speaker 3: gains a full point what I don't like about the
Speaker 3: Detroit side is they lose a half a point that
Speaker 3: the BBG on their running game.
Speaker 4: I don't like that.
Speaker 3: But they have had some offensive line introduce to your point,
Speaker 3: so maybe that canceled it out. It's a flat output
Speaker 3: for the Tampa Bay running game, so they should do
Speaker 3: what they do. However, I do have this trend. Detroit
Speaker 3: is going on the buy next week. They are at home,
Speaker 3: and they are the favorites to twenty eighteen. In that situation,
Speaker 3: forty four and twenty six ATS sixty two point nine
Speaker 3: percent plus one point nine ATS margin on an average
Speaker 3: line of you guessed it was and girls five and
Speaker 3: a half, which is exactly where we're sitting at. So
Speaker 3: winning this game by seven historically is Detroit or passed
Speaker 3: from me here.
Speaker 5: It does feel like it does feel like a seven game.
Speaker 5: That's what exactly what it feels like exactly.
Speaker 3: And if we get beat on that, it's because Baker
Speaker 3: pulls some shit.
Speaker 5: Up his ass, which he could.
Speaker 4: He always can. All right on to the second. By
Speaker 4: bright up, bright.
Speaker 3: Up Monday night football game, Oh Seattle, Oh Seahawks pustles Houston.
Speaker 3: That's Houston with an h taxans on this one the
Speaker 3: preseason line. Let's see, I had Seattle minus one, Vegas
Speaker 3: had a minus one and a half. We're sitting at
Speaker 3: three and a half currently, girls, so long horred.
Speaker 5: To go on this? Oh well, Steefests, you better get
Speaker 5: it ready because I'm feeling a little dangerous here, so
Speaker 5: you better get that sounder ready for it. I'm going
Speaker 5: big on this one. So let's let's call this one
Speaker 5: the danger Zone game of the week. So, dude, is
Speaker 5: this three? Is this grade at three and a half
Speaker 5: or three?
Speaker 3: Let me check the current board. We're looking at um
Speaker 3: and that's more like three point two five three. It's
Speaker 3: three and three the West, it's three.
Speaker 4: And a half. It been online three and a half.
Speaker 5: I see, all right, fine, I'll I'll just do the
Speaker 5: plus three for one unit and then the one unit
Speaker 5: on the money line. Then I was gonna do two
Speaker 5: units if it was three and a half, but we
Speaker 5: gotta we gotta be fair of what the time we
Speaker 5: put it out. So it was three and a half
Speaker 5: three and now so one in one and the money.
Speaker 4: Is coming on on Houston, So I think.
Speaker 5: You're getting okay, okay, uh So in this game, weird
Speaker 5: weird thing going on with Seattle where there and this
Speaker 5: goes back to last year with their new coach that
Speaker 5: came from Baltimore. I always forget his fucking name. What
Speaker 5: is his name? It's not McDonald, isn't McDonald, I don't
Speaker 5: know whatever, the new coach that came from the de
Speaker 5: guy the game from Baltimore to Seattle. We're a lot
Speaker 5: of beers in this is the last game of the week.
Speaker 5: So this is they're four and eight straight up at home.
Speaker 5: I'll take it. Four and eighth straight out, straight up
Speaker 5: at home for Seattle, three and nine eight t s
Speaker 5: run at home. For whatever reason, it's it's and that
Speaker 5: and that. That's a that's the home of the twelfth
Speaker 5: Man that they stole from from Texas, A and M
Speaker 5: like this. This is doesn't make any sense that they
Speaker 5: had to pay. You get a pamp when you steal.
Speaker 5: You know, we're coming up on Christopher Columbus Day. You
Speaker 5: gotta you gotta pay when you steal like this is
Speaker 5: the way. That's the way it goes. The shutdown corner
Speaker 5: factor for Houston, whether it's whether it's Lasseter or it's
Speaker 5: their best one Stingley. They have two guys. They can
Speaker 5: throw a J s N. And if you take away
Speaker 5: J s N, which I don't know that they will,
Speaker 5: but if you if you can at least slow him down,
Speaker 5: that is a one man wrecking game for Donald to
Speaker 5: go to. So if you can take him out, if
Speaker 5: you if they take him out, forget about it. This
Speaker 5: is this is a Houston win if they if they
Speaker 5: slow him down, though they can they can stay within
Speaker 5: these three points and we'll see what happens at the end.
Speaker 5: I like the trend up for the Houston offense that
Speaker 5: the old line hasn't looked as bad the last two
Speaker 5: or three weeks as they did the first two or
Speaker 5: three weeks. And then and in the pass rush for Houston,
Speaker 5: if they can get the Donald and they can fluster him,
Speaker 5: we've seen in the past that that's his downfall. Now
Speaker 5: he's he's kind of turned his career around and maybe
Speaker 5: he can be able to deal with this. But even
Speaker 5: if he deals with a pass rush, he still has
Speaker 5: to deal with the fact that there's some lockdown corners
Speaker 5: taking away his number one target, and he's got to
Speaker 5: find some alternative places to go. Even if he does
Speaker 5: deal with the pass rush. So everything points to Houston.
Speaker 5: For me, would have loved the three and a half.
Speaker 5: I'll take the three and give you the money line
Speaker 5: at plus. What'd you say one's That's what I'm on,
Speaker 5: all right.
Speaker 3: Longharn has been red hot on the danger zone. Hit
Speaker 3: both of them last week on Atlanta and on Chicago Chicago,
Speaker 3: so red hot there. It's been his number one play
Speaker 3: this season. He's in the black of the season. I
Speaker 3: don't have the numbers befrom of me. I apologize for that.
Speaker 3: I have not told them up yet. However, uh in
Speaker 3: this one, the power record has Seattle graded there forty one.
Speaker 3: We're sitting it over under. I've got it over that.
Speaker 3: I've got Seattle win in twenty three twenty So it's
Speaker 3: a no call through the BBG. Now, this is a
Speaker 3: flat matchup for Sammy D. It's not a good match
Speaker 3: up for straw though, loses the point of the BBG.
Speaker 3: Both run a game great out as flat. I expect
Speaker 3: you this to be the close Skins. We have dueling
Speaker 3: trends here too, so you've got the away dog going
Speaker 3: into or coming off of the buye.
Speaker 5: So that is this is a great spot.
Speaker 4: Houston.
Speaker 3: It's fifty to fifty, so thirty five, thirty four and
Speaker 3: one minus point six cumulative to the spread of a
Speaker 3: line of five point three, So they're still in the
Speaker 3: covers on there, however, better spot for Seattle, so they're
Speaker 3: going onto the by home favorite. Same trend as we
Speaker 3: just gave out forty four to twenty six and one
Speaker 3: sixty two point nine percent average line of five and
Speaker 3: a half winning by one point nine percent margins is
Speaker 3: to win this game by seven and then I even
Speaker 3: brought it down a little bit further.
Speaker 4: If you're going on the buy and you.
Speaker 3: Are a favorite, and you're at home, and you won
Speaker 3: your last football games, in other words, you're feeling good
Speaker 3: going on vacation. Since twenty eighteen thirty seven and seven
Speaker 3: straight up winning by eight point six points a game
Speaker 3: eighty four point one percent twenty nine fourteen and one
Speaker 3: sixty seven point four percent ats with a plus two
Speaker 3: point nine eight ts margin on a line of five
Speaker 3: point seven.
Speaker 4: Again, so winning about seven to eight.
Speaker 3: Points there and over the total as I do have
Speaker 3: predicted twenty four eighteen and two fifty seven percent of
Speaker 3: the time on an average total forty seven point one,
Speaker 3: we're only at forty one here. So and that's that's
Speaker 3: plus one point seven on that so basically forty eight
Speaker 3: points and they win by seven. It's I mean, the
Speaker 3: buckets right now are split from what I have greated.
Speaker 3: Houston is taking the money. I'm gonna wait till Seattle,
Speaker 3: maybe they get down to two and a half.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna hammer Seattle. I'm one against long Horn on
Speaker 4: this pick.
Speaker 3: It's just it's too too many things, too many factors,
Speaker 3: and I already have one of my three on top
Speaker 3: of all that. It's just it's a bad it's a
Speaker 3: bad spot for us. It's just a bad spot. It's
Speaker 3: a bad spot. But Longhorn has been red hot, and uh,
Speaker 3: I'm glad I didn't go against someone any dangers done
Speaker 3: last week, I would have lost both of them. So
Speaker 3: I'm glad I didn't do that. But on this one,
Speaker 3: it's gonna be number dependent on me. We'll see what
Speaker 3: I put out on the Patreon page later on if
Speaker 3: it gets a two and a half.
Speaker 5: Though there's I wouldn't bet Houston under three, So you
Speaker 5: gotta you gotta agree with the locked in three. Yeah, No,
Speaker 5: I get that we could both win for sure. I
Speaker 5: like I like when we both man, Well, of course
Speaker 5: I would, you would push, but I know that's why
Speaker 5: I You know what, I'll just leave it the same
Speaker 5: because I really wanted the three and a half just
Speaker 5: to just to steal unit in case they don't win.
Speaker 5: But I'll just leave the same.
Speaker 3: We're good to go, all right, boys and girls, that
Speaker 3: was all the wins coming to the as and baby.
Speaker 3: All right, Longhorn on some of those free I said,
Speaker 3: free picks of the week, you said you weren't gonna
Speaker 3: go with your word and stay to Tennessee.
Speaker 4: So what do you got from.
Speaker 5: Well, I'm not taking Tennessee because they have a new coach,
Speaker 5: but I will take those Vegas Raiders getting twelve. I'm looking.
Speaker 5: I'm stirring at twelve. So I'm taking the twelve Vegas
Speaker 5: Raiders plus twelve free pick out the week?
Speaker 4: All right, now you college pre pick the week.
Speaker 3: Oh we're going up to Montana, baby, with those fucking fighting.
Speaker 5: Cougars, I think, Josh Allens.
Speaker 4: Yeah, taking on Sacred Heart.
Speaker 5: What yep is this? We're doing basketball games?
Speaker 4: Now, we're doing basketball.
Speaker 3: We're going over fifty three and a half on the total.
Speaker 5: That kid a lot of three pointers, a lot of
Speaker 5: three pointers.
Speaker 4: They're good at shooting threes.
Speaker 3: Don't even worry about it, and take the over fifty
Speaker 3: three and a half. I like it up to let's
Speaker 3: say fifty seven. Thinking sitting about fifty four right now,
Speaker 3: So let's get it in while we can get it in.
Speaker 3: Boys and Girls, Montana and sack sacred hearts over the fifty.
Speaker 4: Three and a half.
Speaker 3: Alright, I'm telling me the fablius Patreon page, we were already.
Speaker 4: Already went in on the week. Let's go baby, tell
Speaker 4: me one more.
Speaker 5: Time, gotta love it. Go to that Patreon page, patreon
Speaker 5: dot com, slash bet, underscore f g H and joining
Speaker 5: in the fun of busting up these bookies both. Stephen
Speaker 5: is on a heater. I'm looking to get back on
Speaker 5: the winning side of things. I'm hitting the danger zones,
Speaker 5: hitting all that's good, But we gotta we gotta win
Speaker 5: on the Patreon side because that's where we give you
Speaker 5: our our heavy hitting. So people, stop throwing away your
Speaker 5: hard money on a guessing game. Let the pross do
Speaker 5: that heavy ling. So sign up tele a friend and
Speaker 5: join in on the fun of watching football, drinking beer
Speaker 5: in never pay a bookie again.
Speaker 3: Come on, a damn people, never pay a book again, Stevens.
Speaker 4: I guess you talk about you as you know about