Speaker 1: All right, welcome in.
Speaker 2: It is Thursday time for Total Basis, your daily three
pick Major League Baseball show right here on wager Talk TV.
We don't have the full slate today, but still a
pretty healthy slated games for a Thursday. We've got Mariners, Yankees,
among others. We'll get to as many as possible while
still going deep on the ones that we do talk about.
Speaker 1: So we're just gonna get right into it. It is.
Speaker 2: I think this is a pretty big series. I'm still
I got into it on Twitter last night. I was
on Texas Rangers Twitter for a while. Why I'm not
quite sure, but I was going back and forth with
some people about the Rangers and I got in a
little bit of an Al West banter on social media
last night and Brian Leonard, I'm still taking the position
that I still think the Mariners win this division. We
saw the Astros come back to earth a little bit,
getting swept by your Cleveland Guardians. I know the Mariners
haven't showed up in this series yet, but I still
think someone cat catches the Astros. I'm not buying this
Astros team, and the most logical team to do it,
in my opinion, is the Mariners, So I want to
talk Mariners Yankees, but first I'm curious to see what
you guys think about the AO West. Does the Astros
get it done or is there some futures value here
picking another team, and for me that other team would
be Seattle.
Speaker 1: We'll go to Brian first.
Speaker 3: I don't know what the actual odds are right now,
so I can't really answer that. I will say Seattle
sit in six and a half behind right now, the
Angels nine and a half behind, Rangers ten, Athletic seventeen
and a half. It's still up for grabs. It's still early.
They've only played what ninety three games or so, But
you'd have to think to Houston's got the advantage here.
If you take a look at net runs on the season,
they're plus sixty three. The Rangers are next to plus
thirty three, Seattle plus twelve, and the Angels minus fifty
seven and the Athletics minus one thirty eight. I'd have
to look at who's who they've got on the schedule
and all Houston. Yeah, they have been a little bit fortunate,
but they've had maybe they just got some good young players.
They will be getting some people back the Mariners. You know,
they started the season with two of their best pitchers
have spent time on the il, especially Kirby. He's been
out for quite some time, so we'll have to see
how it goes. I do have some concerns about the
back of the Mariners starting rotation, and we saw that
a little bit yesterday. They're pretty good one through three,
one through four, it is not bad, but they need
to pick up another starter, or at least get a
minor leaguer up here that can do better than what
they have right now.
Speaker 2: I want to get Tokyo Brandon's tape, but real quick,
the Astros are a five dollars favorite to win this division.
Speaker 1: They are minus five hundred to win the Aos.
Speaker 2: That's why I'm bringing it up, and I want to
point Colin Gregory makes a really good comment in the chat.
Look who they're missing? Walker paying you you're on. Myers
has been out this week. They've had pitching out, so
maybe Tokyo Brandon, they just need to get healthy. But
I don't know if minus five hundred, I mean, you
could get the Texas Rangers right now at twenty two
to one or the Mariners five to one. I don't know,
does either of those options interest you? In the Aos TV.
Speaker 4: The only team that I think would have a shot
is the Mariners because they're well put together. They have
a great rotation when they're clicking on all cylinders, and
they have a really good bullpen. So I think they
would be the team. But I think the Astros hitting
is just a little too superior when they have all
their players there. But it's definitely worth a flyer. You know,
at Wayja Talk, we put one percent, two percent up
to five percent on our plays. If you know, I
have several one percent plays out on plus six hundreds
or plus one thousands, So depending if the Marior are
like plus nine hundred or something, it's definitely worth a
one percent of your bank for all bet on them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean chop around, like I think you could
probably depending on what book you're at, like the odds
on these types of futures very greatly. Like I would say,
if you can get like a seven to one or
something on the Mariners, absolutely absolutely worth a look, I think. Again,
I just I don't know if they'll do it, but
I do think the Astros give like let someone back
into the mix at some point. I feel like they've
just played so far above what they were supposed to
be that that will tighten up at some point. I'm
gonna go back to Brian Leonard, though, I gotta be honest,
I had higher hopes for the Mariners in this series.
I thought this was a big series for them to
come in swept Pittsburgh. It's sort of a high profile
series at Yankee Stadium. I thought the Mariners were going
to show up in this series. They get blown out
on Tuesday and then they lose last night to a
kid making his major league debut, essentially Brian Leonard. I
think this is their best spot to potentially win in
a game in this series. Can they avoid the sweep
at Yankee Stadium today?
Speaker 3: Well, they definitely had the pitching advantage. Brian wu going
against Marcus stroman Seattle right now is basically about a
one to fifteenth favorite total of nine. Brian Wu is
a guy we like, comes in with a two point
seven seven ERA, three point one to nine expected, zero
point ninety six whip. His key to his game. He
doesn't walk anybody, and last year he had a two
point eight walk grade on the entire season, one hundred
and twenty one innings. This year, he's at one hundred
and seven innings. He's a four point five a little
bit worse. You're not gonna be able to keep that
two point eight very often in major leagues. But he's
a guy who doesn't walk people. It keeps you a
little bit off balanced. It's the kind of guy we like.
You take a look at Marcus Stroman, and he's had
a decent career eighty eight and eighty six and eleven
seasons three point seven seven ERA, that's pretty good. His
whip has been a little high at one two point
two eight. It's even worse the last couple of years.
Last year one point sixty six. The year before one
point four to seven. He's only pitched nineteen innings, so
there's not a lot on stat cast, but his fastball
veloss season, the third percent titles extension and the ninth
those come around. You can figure those out early without
a whole lot of pitches. Right now, he's you know,
he's only thrown three hundred and fifty six pitches on
the season. But he's a guy we can go against.
But you know, he seems to be at the end
of the season most of the times his team is
able to win the games. Last couple of years, he
was ten and nine in his games, which on a
normal team would be okay. On the Yankees, not so
much this year one and one, So you know what
we're gonna get out of him. I prefer the Seattle side.
I agree. I thought Seattle had a good chance to
win at least one, maybe two in this series. I
thought yesterday, going up against the rookie, who is the
right hander, I usually don't look to back rookie right handers.
I pissed very well. He's one of those guys. Had
they had a listing of how many players on the
Yankees or how many times they've hit one hundred miles
an hour, and out of the first ten, he was
nine of them and he only pitched one game. So
tell you the Yankees don't have a lot of flight
throwers in their rotation. But I prefer Seattle. But I
would have preferred them at a pick the price. It's
some places are going down well that now, so we
may see that by the time the day is over.
If I get Seattle plus money, I'll be on that side.
Speaker 4: I just like to say the name Schlitler. I think
that's great. They say that five times fast. Anyway, he
had a great game yesterday. Seattle's problem, I mean, if
they had a good lineup, they would be an elite team. Unfortunately,
their lineup is a little bit inconsistent. Sometimes their bats
get really quiet, and that's not what elite teams do.
Like even the Dodgers generally don't get that quiet. You know,
when a good team is good, they don't get as
quiet as the Mariners have been. A Rosarine is coming around,
he's batting, he's swinging a hot bat right now, but
not too many guys were given him support right now.
So I actually don't like the Seattle lineup right now,
so that would kind of keep me off a side
in this one. But I do love like Brian said, Brian.
Speaker 5: Woo woo, woo woo. He's really good.
Speaker 4: And I think what is the number three in their
rotation to start the season. That's a heck of a
number three guy in your rotation. It just tells you
how good Seattle's rotation is. So Brian wo if I
want to attack that, how do we do it? Yankees
are hitting pretty well right now, so I don't know
if I would like his outs prop. Maybe his strikeout
prop or his walks under prop would be a good
play on this one. But either way I would like
to single him out and make a play on that.
I don't like either team on the side because this
looks like one of those like four to three games
going into the ninth inning kind of thing. Don't really
know how it's going to turn out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you make a good point about the Mariners lineup there.
They're very home run dependent. So when you have a
team that relies on hitting home runs to generate offense
and collectively they get a little cold, you know, it's
it's they're they're really not manufacturing runs. They're not it's
not there's no situational hitting. They're not like draw you know,
they're not drawing a ton of walks and getting on base.
So that that kind of makes sense that Mariners can
have a boomer bust offense to an extent, because it
seems like it's a little bit contagious.
Speaker 1: It's like when the.
Speaker 2: Balls flying out of the yard, it seems like it
does it for a couple of them. Suddenly you get
two three home runs in a game. That's usually enough
offense for the Mariners. To win a lot of games
when it when it's like one through nine is a
little bit cold. You're just not getting a ton of
runners on base, and it's almost like they're sitting around
waiting for the home run and if they don't get it,
they're not doing They're not scoring a ton of runs.
So I totally, I totally see those con I don't
disagree with that. I agree with Brian big pitching edge
here for the Mariners at the front of this game
with wou But Stroman's been you know, when he's on,
he keeps the ball down and gets ground balls. And
when he's getting ground ball like he's if he's keeping
the ball down on his own getting ground balls, it's
obviously tough to hit a guy like that out of
the ballpark. So I thought for sure that I was
going to be on the Mariners here. I saw the
starting pitching matchup, Mariners lost a couple. I was like,
this is just this is the spot that I've got
to be on the Mariners. I'm kind of starting to
maybe lean towards the Steve Steve Duke makes a good
point in the chat Stacey He'll Alasky said Mariners are
not hitting right now the Yankees are Steve agrees with Stacy,
and I agree with both of them, like maybe and
Brian kind of said this as well, maybe Yankees take
some steam. Suddenly you're getting plus money on the Mariners,
like or like it's really close to even money. That's
a spot that I might have to to take a
shot with Brian Wu and just hoping that the Mariners
offense comes around a little bit here, because we do
know that when Stroman is off and he's bad, he
can be bad. Like that's you know, there's there's definitely, uh,
there's definitely.
Speaker 1: Evidence of that being the case.
Speaker 2: I was just like, he did more than I expected
last time out, and so I'm pumping the brakes a
little bit on the Stroman fade, but I do still
lean toward the Mariners here. And Mark Martin says he
played Wu seven k's and a cold say he's gonna
ladder some WU strikeouts. Any opinion on that TV You're
the strikeout guy he likes.
Speaker 5: Woo oh, I like that. I like that.
Speaker 4: Actually, if you look at his strikeouts against Well, it's
the sample size is a little small. I'm projecting his
strikeouts today at six two five, but you know he
could get to seven. He could get to seven. You know,
these guys are human, and when they play the Yankees,
they get pumped up, especially in Yankee Stadium, they get
pumped up. So usually you're gonna you're gonna get their
best outing against the Yankees.
Speaker 5: So yeah, it's it's it's possible, and I like the price.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we has had very few poor outings this year.
He's been he's been fantastic, So uh, let's move it along.
Speaker 2: This is this is a series I've been completely wrong. Thankfully,
I haven't bet it yet, but I've been completely wrong
about this Cubs twin series. And I think it might
be going back to a point I made earlier in
the week, where it is it is almost vacation time
for some of these guys. The Cubs have done more
than enough. The Cubs have done more than enough in
the first half. They could lose every game the rest
of the way. They still had a tremendous first half.
Bryan Leonard, are we just not getting the Cubs fully
focused in this series because they have not looked good
the last couple of days.
Speaker 3: You know, they have not been without the Cubs and
the Astros this week. I'm having a great week. I
don't think I've picked a game one game correct on
either of those series. It's amazing to me how they
can go up and down. But that's baseball, that's sports betting,
and we got to learn from it. Colin Ray comes
in with a four point one three ERA five point
zero two expected one point three to one whip. He
is a guy who doesn't walk a lot. Is it
five point nine walk percentage right now? Which is good
enough for the eighty second percentile, it's extension seventieth, but
everything else on his chart is blue. Expected batting average
only in the eighth percent with rate twelve percent, average,
eights of velocity fifteenth. He's a guy if you could
tell by looking at the expected ERA compared to regular
that he's had some good luck and some regressions coming
his way. Chris Paddick, who I believe we talked about
just the other day and you had mentioned you weren't
a Paddock fan. He's three and seven on the season,
four point six four ERA, four point five to two
expected one point two two whip. Chase rate excellent eighty
nine percentile, walk rate excellent, eightieth percentile extension ninety second.
Then again after that everybody everything else just about is
in the blue. Also not a big strikeout pitcher fifteenth percentile,
sixteenth percentile and the whifts. So we've got two guys here.
They don't walk a lot of batters, and that's a
good thing, but neither one of them are a big
strikeout guys. We're looking at it's near a pickham. The
Chicago right now is basically about one oh eight, one no. Nine,
and we're looking at Glad that's one ten or so,
and then we're looking at Minnesota at nine and a half,
and so the offenses woke up against some pretty good pitching.
I don't know if I believe in it entirely. Still
prefer Because as a team over Minnesota, but the pitching
pitching spot right now probably favors Pattic a little bit.
So if I'm going to play any it would be
the over. But it's an early game and teams have
to travel. We'll see how that goes. A lot of
times we get burned on these Thursday and Sunday get
away games when you're playing totals, So I likely pass
on this.
Speaker 4: Guys, do us a huge favor and go to the
replay this and click the like and leave a comment
for us. Just show wager Talk that you like our
show and they'll let us keep going. And if you
look down there, you can see all of our pages.
I already have a free play out and an MLB
feature play up for sale, so I'm sure Brian and
Adam will too. So pick one of us and go
to our pages. Take for five seconds and go check
it out. Regarding this series, I would love the Cubs
in this spot, but the way they're playing right now,
you just can't back them right now. I think Adam
is one hundred percent on. They have pretty much the
first half already.
Speaker 5: I don't think.
Speaker 4: I mean, say, s Tuzuki is playing horrible. I mean,
not only is he not producing anything striking every time.
Speaker 5: He's up to that.
Speaker 4: I lost the Cubs, I lost the astros Man. Both
of those teams just have their heads up their rears
right now, and I don't see him pulling it out
before the All Star breaks, so I will not be
backing the Cubs.
Speaker 5: Paddock.
Speaker 4: I have him ranked really low in my rankings. On
a curve of thirty, I got him ranked twenty seven However,
if you look how he's performed against these hitters in
his career, he's done really well. So this is another
one of those games where Yan Yang cancel each other out.
So I won't be playing this game if I were
to play. One thing, I do have a note right
here and it says Ray Ray walks under, so I'll
share something with you. He's walking one point one guys
per start and Minnesota is walking two point five per nine,
so that projects out to one point eight walks. So
I just check DraftKings. The walks over under is not
out yet. When it comes out, maybe his under one
and a half walks would be a good play. Like
Brian said, he doesn't walk many people.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have virtually no opinion from like an actionable
standpoint in this game, so I'll be very quick here.
One thing I will point out is the NL Central standings,
like the Cubs are a little bit different than the
Dodgers and some of these other teams where it's like
the Brewers are coming. The Brewers are a game and
a half back of the Cubs, and if they don't
wake up, they could very well go into the All
Star Break in second in the division. Which is insane
to think considering how the first half has gone. The
Cubs had the Yankee Stadium this weekend, rest assured you
will get their full attention from Friday to Sunday most likely,
especially if they drop this game. I think that would
be a big time wake up call as far as
this game's concerned. I can't bet an over because the
Cubs have looked lethargic offensively the last two days. I
don't want to bet on them just suddenly waking up.
I can't bet the Cubs to bounce back because I
don't want to bet on Colin Ray. And I can't
bet the Twins because I really don't care for Paddock
and I feel like I've missed the spot to bet
the Twins.
Speaker 1: So I'm out of this game.
Speaker 2: But that's a big series all of a sudden, that's
a very big series this weekend for the Cubs out
at Yankee Stadium. That's something I would would maybe pay
attention to, you know this weekend. That again, the Brewers
they if the Cubs lose today, they are one game
back in the Central. Incredible stuff based on where these
team teams were a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 1: All right, I want to talk about a doubleheader.
Speaker 2: You guys know I love my double headers, and we've
got one today in Baltimore. So we'll do this the
way we always do doubleheaders. We know the Game one starters.
It was the matchup last night, and I don't think
I don't think we talked about this games on yesterday's show,
so we'll give it the full treatment here. I'm more
interested in Game two, so I'm gonna go to Brian
Leonard kick us off Mets Orioles. I'll take thoughts in
either game one or Game two, but me personally, I'm
going to focus on Game two. So are you seeing
anything here?
Speaker 1: Do you want to get involved in this double header
at any point today?
Speaker 3: Well, from a weather standpoint, this is the one series,
the one doubleheader, I guess you have to worry about.
It's gonna be some randy in Chicago for the Guardians game,
somewhat of a concern, but this one, They've got to
get two games in and it's supposed to rain all
day there, which is going to be a problem because
they are non conference games, and if you've played future
bets like some of us that have taken the Orioles
under you want to make sure we get all enough
games in because these are less likely to be made
up again because they're in a different league, and it's
probably not important unless either one of these is in
a playoff position where the game means something, they may
not be played and then it hurts our totals for
the season.
Speaker 1: Ryan, I jump in real quick.
Speaker 2: It looks it looks like the rain is about it
is gonna stop for the day around eleven am, so
there's no there's no continued rain in the forecast until
way later tonight, So they really should get these games in.
Speaker 1: That's what that's where my weather app is showing.
Speaker 3: Mine is showing the first game starts at twelve eastern
twenty three thirty six, forty three thirty seven, thirty eight,
and then the second game forty fifty two forty seven.
So it depends on how much how hard it rains.
You know, a little bit of rain. Is it gonna
help or is it gonna hurt anything? But I did
want to make that out there so people could keep
track of that. Uh, yeah, we're getting in in the
first game, We've got Peterson against Morton. I thought it
was Stagano was originally scheduled.
Speaker 1: He's gonna start game two.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought he was originally yesterday supposed to start
game once. So maybe it does a pitching change. Peterson
left you going against Baltimore, and right now mets her
about a one twenty eight favorite total of nine nine
and a half obviously a nine over nine and a
half under. Peterson's on the road, And as I was
pointed out by somebody and I can't remember who it was,
in the chat the other day, they talked about Peterson's
home road dichotomy. And so let's take a look at
his splits on this season at home five and zero
two point one one era on the road one in
four four point four to four. Still smaller sample sizes totally.
He's only pitched about one hundred innings so far this season,
but he's very good with his extension ninety fifth percentile,
ground ball rate, ninety fourth, barrel rate eighty second all good.
But he does get head a little bit, but because
of his ground ball rate, not a lot of fly balls,
and that's always a good thing. Charlie Morton, who looked
like he was washed earlier in the season. His year
to date records series look like he still. Washby's pitched
a lot better as of late five point four to
seventy ra four point three four, So some good luck
Chynick in his way one point five to five whip
that has been his weakness the last few years. Fifth
percentage sixty seven percentile, that's what he does the best
from walking walk right twenty fifth percentile, average ex velosity
eighteen stension twenty three. More bad than good with Charlie Morton,
but as I said, he has pitched better as of late.
With the line currently what it is, I'm probably going
to pass on this game. And right now the Mets
don't know who they're going to use, at least it's
not on this on the our Odds Logic website as
to who they're going to go against Sagana in the
second game, but they should have some success against Sarghano.
Speaker 4: This is one of those games where my numbers point
one way, but the eye test points the other way.
My numbers like Baltimore here, my number is like Charlie
Morton a lot.
Speaker 5: I don't know why.
Speaker 4: My numbers are kind of a recent recency biased and
also a lot of expected era is mixed in so
maybe he's just being unlucky, but his home era and
his away era both are five plus. That's a guy
I really don't want to trust, but my numbers really like.
Speaker 5: Him, and I don't know why.
Speaker 4: Now. Looking at the bullpens, both bullpens pretty good. Baltimore's
is performing slightly better. I still have Morton performing better
than Peterson also, and the lineups are both negligible pretty even.
I might take a flyer on Baltimore here in game
one because my numbers like him and the price is
really good plus one thirty or in that range. I
think it would be worth worth a play here because
I think they're playing better than the Mets right now.
Speaker 2: I will be a spectator in game one. I have
no interest in betting Game one. However, I am looking
at the Mets in game two, so I'm gonna tell
you what I hope happens, and if it all shakes out,
I'll probably have a client play on the Mets in
game two. So bullpen depth huge advantage for the Mets.
Mets have a much deeper a collection of bullpen arms,
and so for me, that's where the edge is here
in this sort of series for the Mets the two
game series today the doubleheader. I once you get past
the Orioles couple high leverage arms, there's a big drop
off in their bullpen.
Speaker 1: And it's why.
Speaker 2: I mean, if you just pull up very quickly look
at like bullpen e RA and some of the surface metrics,
the Orioles are near the bottom of the league in
all of those categories. Mets are probably you know, the
Mets are not. They don't have the elite bullpen I
thought they might have this year, but they certainly have
more arms than the Orioles. Now, what I think the
Mets are gonna do with pitching in Game two is
call up twenty seventh man to be a bulk guy.
Speaker 1: I don't know who it's gonna be.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna be tid Well because he
pitched the other day for Syracuse in that role, so
I don't think he's ready to turn around and pitch
again yet. Maybe it's Justin Hagenman. He has been very
solid in this role for the Mets this year. Like
he's someone I've got to watch quite a bit over
at Syracuse and he's like the perfect guy to have
in your organization, where I think he knows he's not
really a big leaguer, Like, he just knows his place.
He's happy to come up, get the opportunity to throw
three four relief innings. He knows he's going back down.
He embraces that role. He was really good in that
role earlier this year when the Mets sort of used
him as like the twenty seventh man doubleheader guy. And
I have a feeling based on like who's available down
there in that Mets Syracuse Mets rotation in bullpen right now,
that it's.
Speaker 1: Probably gonna be him.
Speaker 2: They could go one of a couple of ways, because
all of a sudden, Syracuse has some really good young
relief pitchers. I just don't think the way the Mets
treat they're pitching, they tend to like to go veteran.
So it's more likely that it's a guy like Brandon
Wadeo or Justin Hagenman that comes up as the bulk guy.
Speaker 1: But either would be fine with me.
Speaker 2: Well, because either as fine with me because you got
Hageman who's been good in this role, or Whydell, who's
a lefty and the Orioles really struggle more with left
handed pitching. So if I can get the Mets against Sugano,
who I don't think is very good, who I think
they could absolutely generate some offense against, and I like
how the bullpen sets up.
Speaker 1: They'll probably use an opener.
Speaker 2: I think they've used Brazzavan in this opening role before.
They If they're gonna do something like that, and you're
gonna give me minus one ozh five or like even
money on the Mets in Game two, that's a home
run spot for the Mets in my opinion. Again, it's
contingent on what happens in game one. If David Peterson
wins a four to three game and they use every
leverage bullpen arm to close that game out, I probably
can't do it. But if the game, if Game one
goes a little bit differently, where it's maybe it's a
Mets blowout win, maybe it's an Orioles win where the
Mets don't really use their top guys, I'm absolutely.
Speaker 1: Coming back with the Mets in Game two. So I'll
leave it like that. I'm not going to use it
in the parlay because we don't know how Game one
is gone, but if that scenario pops up, it'll likely
be a client play for me.
Speaker 2: So very strong. Look to me for the Mets in
game two of this doubleheader today. All right, let's move
on Rogue Energy. Rogue Energy says might be the White
Sox again today. Want to see what y'all think. Well,
we've got a Guardians expert on the panel, so we're
going to go right to him. White Sox and suddenly
the White Hot Guardians. Brian Leonard, how are you seeing
this one?
Speaker 3: Well, when he got the best player on the team
on fire, and that's we are, Rigez Ramerez, excuse me,
that is something we like. Problemz. He was on I
believe it all for twenty one streak before that. So
baseball is very streaky. It's one of those sports that
a lot of highs and lows. Logan Allen going today
for Cleveland. He's a lefty going against the White against Cannon.
All right, now we're finding Cleveland about a one twenty
five one to twenty six favorite total eight and a
half here, Logan Allen, I usually try to avoid. He
comes in with a four point oh seventy ra four
point four to six expected, one point four to three whip.
The whip is a concern. He's been in the majors
three years now, and every single year his walk rate
has been highs in the twenty fifth percentile in that
and as good as he's been so far, he doesn't
have much fastball velocity six percent ofle with eight ninth
percentle eleventh percentile in chase rate, so he's walks a
lot of people. He's walked sixty five players in eighty
four are going to be struck out sixty five players
in eighty four innings, but his struck outline, his walk
grade is only eight eight point zero, not good enough
to be a major leaguer at this point, and so
he's usually somebody I'm looking to fade. Jonathan Cannon comes
in four point five ERA, four point eight six expected,
one point four to six whip. Though his whip is high,
walk grade is actually a little bit less than the
league average is an eighty point one. The garage is
eight point four. But when you take a look at
the stack, caspage just all blue. The best thing he
does he's in the fifty percentile walk rate, and that's
by zero point three percent. So not a guy I'm
looking to back here, going against another picture I'm not
looking to back, which means, let's take a look at
the total. We're looking at eight and a half here
in Chicago. I did mention there will be lightly likely
some rain there. They're going from a dome in which
they didn't have to deal with any kind of weather
to Chicago. They're somewhat like the over end this game.
I don't know if I trust the the Cleveland offense overall,
but when your best hitter is red hot, that can
change in no time, so slightly to the over probably
won't get involved.
Speaker 5: The way I would approach this game.
Speaker 4: Well, the first thing I do is I lay out
the starters and the pitchers and see what's up, and
then I see how they perform against each other. Yes,
baseball is very streaky. Cleveland was ice cold until the
last two games. Now they're starting to hit home runs
and they're starting to score. The White Socks never really
that much of a scoring team. Their strength is more
they have some decent arms, the White Socks do, and
they got some decent arms in their bullpen as well.
I think both of these teams have pretty decent bullpens.
Cleveland's is finally coming around a little bit. They were
ranked quite low in my rankings, but now they're up
above the Mendoza line as far as mediocrity, toiling and mediocrity.
So if I look at how each starting pitcher goes
against the batters that they're facing today, they both have
pretty bad numbers OPS over seven fifty for both of them.
That is kind of a red flag for me. If
I don't really like a side and both pitchers perform
poorly against the other team, I would see which one
I'm projecting to the outs under. And Cannon is a
guy who does not go deep into games. The book
right now has him at fifteen point five outs recorded.
If you don't know what that means, fifteen outs is
exactly five innings, So fifteen point five means he has
to record an out in the sixth inning. If you
look at how he's done the season, he rarely does that.
And I project him at around thirteen or thirteen point
nine or about fourteen outs just under the fifth inning'll
he might finish the fifth inning. I highly doubt Jonathan
Cannon will be recording an out in the sixth inning.
You know, I could be wrong. It's gambling, but if
I were to bet this game, I would do Jonathan
cannon under fifteen and a half outs recorded. I haven't
done it yet, TB.
Speaker 2: You hit with Howser yesterday on the over, and I
think for many of the same reasons that I talked
about yesterday, you're probably going to be right on Cannon under.
Here's why go back to exactly what I said yesterday.
Will Venable is managing the White Sox like a Triple
A team. It is a developmental team right now and
and and it's actually it's making them very appealing to
bet On because I think I think he's sort of
creating this culture of like it's all young guys, it's
all guys that are that are thrilled to be playing
Major League baseball. He's trying to put basically everyone in
a position to see succeed. And what that means is
he's platooning guys, He's putting a lineup out that's never
the same back to back days. You know, he's he's
he's just playing matchups. But more importantly, no one's sitting
on the bench for more than a day or two.
Speaker 1: And he's going to use all of his pitchers.
Speaker 2: So last yesterday I told you I said, Howsard's gonna
go until he gives him he gets in trouble, right
because that he's been he's been good, so there's no
reason to take him out of the game. Cannon is
probably like after a game like that, I don't think
he wants to put Jonathan Cannon in a position to fail. Now, Cannon,
if you look at his numbers, he's no Adriane Hawser
right now, He's a guy that I think Venable's more
likely to protect, similar similar to like what they do
with guys to triple A. They're gonna let him go
once through if he gets his pitch count up, no problem.
If you know, if it's the fourth inning and he's
he's there at like seventy pitches, they're just gonna take
him out. They don't care. They've got the next thing.
He wants to get the next guy innings. So unless
the unless he's in absolute cruise control mode, you're probably
right TV. He's not gonna be forced to go deep
in this game. They're gonna be fine with four innings
and they're gonna go to the next guy to give
him three innings and then they'll you know, it's just
it is exactly how big teams manage triple A, and
I think that's what you're gonna continue to see out
of the White Sox here. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean
the White Socks are a fade. I think it's the opposite,
because again, you've got a team that is showing up
each day.
Speaker 1: They're ready to play.
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna have the dip of like, oh,
we're going into the All Star break and we're tired,
we're ready for a break, because none of these guys
were here a couple months ago, at least half of
them weren't. So in my opinion, they're like, no, we
just want to keep playing baseball, right Kyle Teal wants
to be in a big league lineup every day. Colson
Montgomery wants to play big league baseball every day. So
I think right now the next few days, the White
Sox might be the most energized team.
Speaker 1: They got a.
Speaker 2: Nice win yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised if they won
this game today. I don't know if I'm getting the
right price. I would have loved a White Sox plus
one and a half. It's about twenty cents off of
where I want it, so a slight lean toward White
Sox money line. Definitely like the plus one and a
half if you want to like pair it with something,
because I don't really want to lay a dollar forty five.
Speaker 1: To back them plus one and a half.
Speaker 2: And I also do think you could see some offense
because I don't like Logan Allen either. I think he's
aside from generating some soft contact, he will give up runs.
Speaker 1: Cannon is not trustworthy.
Speaker 2: It's only eight and a half, So I would say
White Sox and over brote energy saxon over is how
I look at this game. All right, let's continue on.
Let's continue on. We might get to most of them today.
Uh I got one. Yeah, let's let's go back to well,
let's let's see we've.
Speaker 3: Got let me let me throw one out. Yeah, go ahead.
I want it to be my part of the parlor.
Uh So, while we're deciding on yours, I'll throw ours out.
I'm gonna look at the Washington Saint Louis game. Currently
Soroka against michaelas michaelis Michaels is about one thirty five
and the total is eight and a half to the
over minus twenty five. Michael Soroka, and I'm pretty stubborn
in this way. When you go into a game and
you're looking at expected DRA against the regularly RA. Regularly
RA five point four zero, expected d RA three point
one nine, he's got a lot of positives coming towards him.
Sometimes it happens in one game. Sometimes it takes all
year to get there. But he's a guy that has
some positive numbers looking at him. He's got a one
point one four whip. His strikeout minus walk RAYIHOW sixteen
is about league average. He is at nineteen point eight now.
The problem being the last two years Michael Soroka is
three and sixteen. That's his record teams. Last year he
wasn't very good. He's coming back from injury, did not
perform very well. But still we've seen this from certain teams.
We see from schemes all the time. A lot of
these guys just don't get any reun support, and that
may be the case with Soroka because his numbers are
really good. He's in the eighty second percent on and
expected batting gabage, seventy eighth in walk percentage seventy six
to barrel percentage. He's very good all around, and his
number show he is not getting the credit for as
well as he is pitching. I got to keep going
back there. And a lot of people will look at
that three and sixteen the last two years say I
don't want any part of them. Well, somebody I don't
want any part of is Miles Michelis. He's got a
five point two six ERA after a five point three
five ERA last year, four point seven to eight ERA
the year before, five point twenty five is expected right now,
and a one point three to four whip. His walk
rate overall's that's what he does. He throws the ball
right down the middle of the plate and if you
can hit it, you can hit it, and is at
five point three right now in his career walk great
is four point three, so he's very good in that position. Unfortunately,
he's never been a strikeout guy, so his strikeout on
his walk ray show is ten point seven on the season,
walk grate eighty nine percent ole. He's great, that's what
he's known for. But check out some of these other numbers.
Fifth rate, second percentile, barrel rate, fifth percent out, strike
that rate, ninth percentile. This is a guy that gets
hit hard, and this Washington team, we've seen it they've
been up and down off actually, but they got a
lot of young guys that can hit. I like Washington here,
and you're getting them, in my opinion, with a much
better starting pitcher, and you're getting them at plus money
here against Saint Louis. Give me Washington as my parlay
it plus plus one twenty three. Let's say.
Speaker 4: I agree with everything that Brian said, and I'll add
a little bit more. I was very skeptical when Soroka
started this season.
Speaker 5: I thought he was washed.
Speaker 4: He gave up maybe an average three to four runs
every start when he was out at the beginning. He
had one little stretch there where he only gave up
one or two earned runs in like four starts straight,
and then his last start he got blown up by Boston.
Speaker 5: But my numbers don't really like him.
Speaker 4: But he does pass the eye test, and he's striking
out ten guys per nine inning. That's very impressive. If
you bet his strikeout prop, you don't have to worry
about him getting blown up, although they might take him
out of the game early, which does negatively affect your
strikeout prop. His outs right now are sixteen and a
half by the book, sixteen and a half outs recorded
or I'm sorry, seventeen and a half outs. So the
book is asking you, will he or will he not
finish the sixth inning? I have him not finishing the
sixth inning, but I do have his strikeouts rather high.
So that's how I would approach that Micholas is awful.
Did he pitch in Korea?
Speaker 5: Out him?
Speaker 2: He pitched in Japan a long time ago. Yeah, I
know he got for like a decade he picked.
Speaker 4: He wasn't in Korea though, right, No, not in careak Okay.
He was terrible in Japan too. I was really surprised
that Major League Baseball took him back because he was
not good out here. But the way I would approach
it is I would I would single out one of
the pitchers and either take their strikeouts or outs props
soroka strikeouts over or outs under would be a way
I would go here, and guys go to the replay,
click the like and leave a comment for us. Tell
wage to talk that you like our show.
Speaker 2: Uh, Shawn's got me scrambling. I did not if he
got demoted to triple A, I missed that. I didn't
think Michael has got sent down. I thought that would
have been a bigger deal if he did. I'm not
saying that they wouldn't wouldn't be considering it. Uh, the
Cardinals have a couple of guys down there right now
that are I think, you know, Quinn Matthews is starting
to build back up. So I'm not saying they wouldn't
consider it. But I did not see that. I I mean,
I don't disagree. He's probably a guy that you know,
could could end up at Triple A at some point,
but he's still here as far as I know, I
am in full agreement.
Speaker 1: With Brian Leonard.
Speaker 2: I gave out Nationals as my parlay leg yesterday. My rationale,
they're much better against right handed pitching, and they went
out and knocked around a pretty good uh you know
they Polante was the pitcher yesterday. No problem there. They
generated offense. Uh, it's we've Tokyo Brand has made this
point all year. The books shade the Gnats. They treat
him as a bad team, which which they are. I
mean in the context of Major League Baseball. In the league,
the Nats are not a great baseball team. However, they're
they're one of these young teams. That's that's you know,
infusing their roster with with tomorrow's talent, if you will,
right the James Woods, uh, James Wood, Dalen Lyle's been up.
Speaker 1: I know Robert Hassel's back down at Triple A right now.
Speaker 2: But like, these are the types of guys that have
played a lot of innings for them this year. And
and yes, you're you're absolutely right. They're a little bit
shaded by the books. But where they thrive, like where
you want to bet this team is when they're up
against right handed pitching because their lineup is so left heavy.
The splits, even if the splits on paper don't jump
off the page right now, the way that lineup is
currently constructed is to bang around right handed pitching. They
did it yesterday, they'll probably do it today. And as
far as Mike sarc is concerned, he's healthy. This year,
he hasn't been healthy.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: He was battling a multitude of injuries during his time
in Atlanta and then and then with the White Sox.
I mean he had two or three injuries completely derail
his career. This year, he's healthy. I don't think he'll
ever get back to what we thought he could have
been with the braves, but he's been a pretty consistent
like he's been a pretty solid option for five innings
for the Nationals.
Speaker 1: So yeah, Brian, I'm with you. Why not the Nationals
at plus money here?
Speaker 2: I think it makes complete sense and I think you
get another good effort from the Nats again today.
Speaker 5: Go ahead, yeah, go ahead, five seconds real quick.
Speaker 4: I forgot to say the Washington Nationals team total is
always a good choice in their games because, like you said,
the book, slide them.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And one other thing to point out, they won that
game big yesterday, so that NAT's bullpen that doesn't have
a ton of depth not really a concern.
Speaker 1: They didn't use the bullpen arms.
Speaker 2: I think Brian made my life easier because I would
have one hundred percent used that as my parlay leg
and I had like three I was going to use.
Speaker 1: So I've we've narrowed it down. Chris b not sure
why that Nats line went up so hi yesterday. Yeah,
I couldn't.
Speaker 2: I couldn't get that either, and it scared me off
from a client play standpoint, I was sitting there. Unfortunately
I hit with pirates plus one and a half, but
I kind of pumped the brakes on Nats. I was like,
why are the Cardinals taking so much money? Turned out
to not matter. It was an easy winner. And Spencer
Paris says, Nashals have been on fire to another team.
These young teams, young kids, young teams snowball right, Like,
when they're playing good, it's good. They can string wins together.
When they're playing bad, it can go the complete other direction.
The Nats certainly fall into that category in my opinion.
Speaker 1: So good points all around.
Speaker 2: From the chat from Brian from Tokyo, Brandon and we've
got the first leg of our parlay locked in with
the Nats. Okay, we're rolling here. Still seventeen minutes left,
still a lot of games to talk about.
Speaker 4: Adam, let me hijack the comment real quick, is this true?
Has he given up twelve home runs in six games?
Speaker 1: I would have to check that real quickly now.
Speaker 5: If that's take the Washington team total right now.
Speaker 3: He's given up six home runs against the Cups the
other day. If you remember that game, believe, oh yeah
that was again yep.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: Then he gave up too against Cleveland, which is almost
giving up the Cubs.
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, that's I mean, listen, he rarely are you
gonna like propose a fade of Micholas and it's going
to be a bad bet at this point. Like, he's
he's someone that I think is there because they lack
better options. He's a veteran, they're trying to grind a
one hundred and sixty two game season. He's a professional.
They know he can go out. Give him five to
six innings. He'll probably give up a couple of bombs,
but he's like, he's just one of those guys that
is going to sit in that fifth spot in a
rotation until the Cardinals have someone come up and grab it.
And I know they wanted it to be Quinn Matthews,
but he was hurt at the beginning of the year.
So it's really just no one else has stepped up
and taken that spot at this point, although there are
guys coming for it. So if you want to keep
betting against Nicholas, this might be one of your last
chances to do so with him as a starter in
that mutation. Chris b raised minus one and a half
or might raise minus one oh five. This one was
on my radar. I could see it. It's Walker Buehler
for the Red Sox. Where is my raised starter here?
I just clicked out, Oh is it Todz Bradley, Taz Bradley.
I am. I had Todz Bradley on Saturday against the Twins,
Brian Leonard. He pitched great, he got a big strikeout,
and then Kevin Cash took him out of this game
because his TI eighty nine calculator told him to do so,
and the game got blown up in my face. I
don't think he should have taken him out of the
game in that spot in lieu of a worst right
handed pitcher that he brought in to then give up
the home run that let the Twins back.
Speaker 1: In the game.
Speaker 2: But he only went eighty eight pitches and I thought
he was pretty good. Todz Bradley's a guy that he's
got upside in my opinion, whereas Walker Bueler, we know
what he can be, but he hasn't really shown it
much this year. I lean toward the race here helped
me get either get me to the window or get
me off of this game.
Speaker 1: Brian.
Speaker 3: Before we get to this game, I do want to
bring something up over at wager talk with the All
Star Game coming up. They did put up us nice special.
This is for all three of us, as well as
anybody else that sells baseball at Wayger Talk. It's the
MLB Midseason Special for under three point fifty a day.
You get all of our baseball through the World Series.
That's everything from now through the World Series. Your favorite handicapper.
It's normally four hundred and seventy nine dollars. It's only
three hundred and forty nine dollars right now. So if
you're in with us for the rest of the baseball season,
this'd be a great way to get it from any
of us, as well as any of the handicappers on
the site. We talked about another guy, Yes, that's been
on the hot run. If you'd like to get him,
you can get that one also here on this special. Yeah,
Tampa Bay one of the ones that I was taking
a look at today. Also Taz Bradley going. We've got
a line right now of basically Boston minus one eight
one nine against Tampa, Bradley and Bueller. I don't I
don't want anything to do with Bueller. We'll get to
that in a second. You mentioned pulling Bradley early. They've
always had that problem with their pictures, especially Bradley. In
that regard, this guy comes out with a four point
seven to nine e RA three point sixty five expected,
So better things on the horizon for tage one point
three to zero whip, strike out minus walk ratio eleven
point four. Not the greatest, uh. Keep in mind, these
Tampa Bay pitchers are coming from a very good pitching
situation inside the Dome. They don't have that this year,
so all of their numbers are going to be higher
than what they were last year as the season goes on.
Very good barrel rate eighty second percentile, fastball velocity eightieth percentile,
but he doesn't get a lot of whiffs twenty six percentile. Still,
he's a hell of a lot better than Walker Buehler
is right now. First of all, his name is Walker,
and that's for TB. He walks nine point four percent
on the walk rate, which is one percentage higher than
Major League Baseball ERA six point three five expected ERA
five point one two. Yes, some positive aggression coming his way,
but with a one point five eight whip you really
need to worry about that. I don't think he's a
very good pitcher. Last year he had a five point
three eighty RA and he was very good in just
a few innings in the playoffs, and then he gets
signed to a big contract. This is why management loses
their jobs, and that's what could happen in Boston with
some of the things that they have done lately. He's
eleventh percent tile expected fourteenth and with right fifteen expected
batting average. I don't want Bueler, So it's either you
take Tampa Bay or you take nothing, and I prefer
the Tampa Bay side. I was just hoping to get
a little bit better right now because this Boston team
is hitting the ball much better than they were. Like,
where you go?
Speaker 5: Yeah, in this game.
Speaker 4: I'm focusing on Buehler here because he is a chronic walker,
as we've said many many times, and he's appropriately named walker.
His parents gave him the right name. How often does
he walk? Well, let's take a look. In the first
for the season, he's walking four guys per nine, but
in the last thirty days he's walking five point seventy
nine guys per nine. So I like to compare that
with the team that they're playing. So how often do
the Rays walk? They're only walking about two times per nine.
They have a low walk rate. Which means they're they're
not really taking a lot of walks according to my
numbers and so his But still Walker, Bueller is just
a walk machine.
Speaker 5: When I checked DraftKings, the walks was.
Speaker 4: Only they were only giving out over In other words,
they were only doing the plus one or plus two walks.
They didn't have the over unders yet, So wait for
the over unders to come out and take a Bueller over. Actually,
since they have the two plus is the same thing
as over one and a half, so you could take
a two plus for him. It's probably going to be
heavily juiced, though, because the books also know that Walker
is a chronic walker, that would probably be the only
way I would go. I would really like to take
Tampa Bay in this one, but Boston's bats are so hot,
and as Brian pointed out before we came on air,
as soon as I trashed someone like the Brewers or
what was his name, Corey Steeker or someone like that,
they get hot. Well, Brian, Brian, I'm going to give
it back to you. You trashed your Hida yesterday and
he had a great game, so it goes two ways.
My friend da Yoshida is I think he's a difference
maker in that line. I know both of you guys
say you don't think he is. I think he will be.
I think I think he can. He can fill the
the the Dever's gap.
Speaker 5: I think I think he can. We'll see.
Speaker 3: He can fuel it as well. As Devers has been
playing in San Francisco right now.
Speaker 5: Yeah, he got a little cold.
Speaker 2: So yeah, the Red Sox had been hitting, but look
who they'd been hitting. They had the Gnats for three,
who have very little bullpen depth. So no, no, not
totally surprising that they were able to score a bunch
of runs in that series. And then they had the
Rockies at home, who are are truly as close to
a Triple A team that I can ever remember over
the course of the season in Major League Baseball. Like
we will jokingly say that sometimes, oh, this is a
Triple A team, and usually that's that's not you know,
that's a little bit far fetched. The Rockies, this year's
Rockies are it is a literal team that you would
expect to see at Triple A, almost top to bottom,
Like it's almost entirely made up of guys that either
could or should be at Triple A. So I gotta
I gotta pump the brakes on being like, oh, the
Red Sox are just like so hot. Well, yeah, against
the pitchers they faced the last week, probably should be
putting up a little bit of offense, Todz. Bradley could
quiet them down, quiet these bats a little bit, because
again he has upside in my opinion, he throws ninety
you know, he sits at like ninety seven on his fastball,
throws it at about fifty percent of the time. But
I do like the way he mixes his other stuff
in off of that basketball, So I don't think his
fastball is like elite by any means in terms of
like he's not gonna blow You're not blowing guys away
with ninety seven at the big league level anymore. But
he's he's throwing the other stuff effectively enough off of
it where you know, he had, like i'll go back
to his start last Saturday, got in trouble in one inning.
He's probably he's probably going to get himself into trouble
at least once, and if you can work around the
big inning, he tends to be pretty good. Tokyo, Brandon,
you talked about the walks with Buehler. You can't walk
the Rays. That's the one thing. You cannot put these
dudes on base for free like because that's where the
Rays thrive.
Speaker 1: That's why, that's why the Rays are like Tigers two.
Speaker 2: Point zero in a lot of cases where if you
give them free base runners, they will one thousand percent
find a way to make you pay. It is the
reason the Rays are what they are this year. This
collection of players should not be Brian Leonard, do you
have the standings right there? What are the Rays come
into They're how many games over five hundred? Let me
see if I can get that quick.
Speaker 3: They are seven games over five hundred rights and plus
sixty seven run differential.
Speaker 2: This team has no business being fifty and forty three
with this collection of players, but they are because when
they get on base, they they can steal. They on
at the right times, they go first to third, well,
they take the extra base. They constantly put constant pressure
on a team's defense to make a play. And it's
those are the types of things that I think the
Red Sox maybe still lack in that department a little bit.
I think if you put pressure on their defense, they'll
they'll give you a run here and there, and if
you give, if you're giving the raise base runners, you
just can't do it. And so for that reason, the
Rays are going to be my parlay leg What what's
the money line there, Brian, I know they were taking
a little bit of money earlier.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's about minus minus one oh four.
Speaker 1: Maybe we'll call it minus one oh five.
Speaker 2: I think again, I just think that the scrappiness of
this team, and then you get the Red Sox sort
of there's sort of been on cruise control over the
last week playing teams that it's like, you know, I
didn't even think they played their best ball at times
in that Rocky series, but the Rockies are just so
horrifically bad. They're throwing guys like sends a ten, Like uh,
who was Freeland pitched the other day?
Speaker 1: Gomber? These are Albuquerque starters, not not big league starters.
Speaker 2: In my opinion at this point, Bradley's a step up
raise are are a team that means business right now.
I think the Rays get them here and end this
winning streak. I don't know what is that's insane. I
don't know what he meant by that, But.
Speaker 4: If you go to his comment up here, he's saying
that the rays have the rays are actually good and
should have that record.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, that's that. That's true. Like Cam and Arrow's
a stud. Uh around is having a great year low
at a twenty game hit streak that I I gotta
be honest, I missed that.
Speaker 1: I didn't.
Speaker 2: I didn't know about that hit streak until hit number nineteen,
and then I was like, like that was like the
best kept secret in sports.
Speaker 1: The fact that that dude at a twenty game hitting streak.
It's another bay.
Speaker 3: I mean, nobody knows anything about that.
Speaker 4: So if they were Yankees famers, that's right, that's right.
Speaker 2: Chandler Simpson, get that guy on base and try to
deal with him. It's I may talk myself into to
the race for clients.
Speaker 1: I'm certainly on it. In the parlay, which means.
Speaker 2: We go to we go to uh, we're going to
Tokyo brand and we got six four minutes of show left.
I saw the people caught the TI eighty nine calculator
reference right there. That was a big deal.
Speaker 1: When I was in high school, everyone had a hat
that stupid graphic calculator. I got a real quick story.
That's very funny.
Speaker 2: Like in high school, we used to try to play
dice in the hallway and the teachers were like, yeah,
you can't do that. Like we were like rolling dice
and like gambling on it in the hallway at school, and.
Speaker 5: They were like, yeah, in the hallway.
Speaker 1: They were like, you know, you can't play that that
game in the hallway, Like that's gambling. We're not gonna
do that.
Speaker 2: So we programmed the TI eighty nine calculator to have
six equally weighted dice, and then we played dice on
the calculator in study hall and they eventually figured that
out too, and they shut that that down. But for
a while we had a really good dice game going
that the teachers didn't know about because we were doing
it on the calculator. They thought we were doing work.
So that's my t I eighty nine grapping calculator story.
Calculator story. If you're in like your mid thirties or
mid forties, you'll totally get that.
Speaker 1: Reference. That was life when you.
Speaker 2: Were in high school back in the early two thousands.
All right, Tokyo Brandon, Yeah, we have two parlay legs
locked in.
Speaker 1: We need a third. What game are you looking at?
Speaker 4: May may I do a strikeout prop for the parlay leg?
Speaker 5: Is that okay or not?
Speaker 1: It's fine if you can't listen.
Speaker 2: If people can't get the strikeout prop in the parlay,
I think it's a reasonable two teamer today with Raisin Nats.
Neither are big odds, So go for it. Put whatever
leg you want the part.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Frankly, I don't see a lot that I like as
far as sides and totals today, so I think a
strikeout prop is the best way to go. And I'm
going to go to the Diamondbacks game against the Padres.
Eduardo Rodriguez is striking out ten and a half guys
per nine, and he's a guy that the books don't like,
just like the Washington Nationals don't like. His strikeout prop
today is four and a half. I think that's insane.
I haven't projected it five to two, and if you
look at his numbers against this team, he's he's he's
striking out four point eight per start, which is a
little I would like it to be higher than that
to make this play, but it's not going to be
a huge, you know, a huge percent play. But I
think I think he's going to get five strikeouts against
the Padres today, so I project him it at five to two.
So my leg is going to be Eduardo Rodriguez over
four and a half strikeouts?
Speaker 3: What the line you got on?
Speaker 4: That the line I got on it was plus one hundred?
Speaker 3: Now do you know it was?
Speaker 4: It was plus one hundred an hour ago?
Speaker 1: Is that what you over four and a half strikeouts
for EDWARDO Rodrigez?
Speaker 4: Yes, it was plus one hundred and it looks like
people in the chat are seeing plus one hundred as well.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll call it. That's fine, we can call
it even money.
Speaker 5: You can tell because it's probably dropped.
Speaker 2: So I have some comments on this game. So I
want to finish the show talking about this game. I'll
I'll go to Brian Leonard first, anything d Backs Padres
for you?
Speaker 3: No, you can go ahead?
Speaker 2: So what I really the only thing I was going
to say here, I was going to throw out the
alternative if you cannot bet the strikeout prop, I think
the Diamondbacks is worth a look in this game. So
if you really want a three teamer, I think you
know you could use d Backs either first five money
line or full game money line, and then just blame
me if the parlay wins but your parlay loses, I'll
I'll take the blame there. I'm confident enough going against
Randy Vasquez that I think the Diamondbacks is a decent
is a decent bet so Tokyo. Brandon is betting the
d Backs in some fashion, right he thinks Rodriguez is
going to have a good game. If Rodriguez is racking
up the strikeouts, chances are Arizona is in a pretty
good position to win here. If you want to cut
their bullpen out, maybe a Diamondbacks first five.
Speaker 1: I feel like you're kind of betting on the same
thing right there.
Speaker 2: That yeah, and again for our parlay, we're gonna go
with Rodriguez over four and a half strikeouts. That's what
we're gonna grade it on. But Diamondbacks was a play
that was sort of on my radar for today, and
for me, it's just the willingness to fade Randy Vasquez
with that Diamondbacks lineup. I'm not the biggest Rodriguez guy,
but again, I think he can do enough here where
the offense might be able to do the work. I've
been watching Randy Vasquez for weeks. I don't know how
he constantly wiggles out of it. This guy should be
getting lit up at the big league level. He's gonna
at some point. And this is a plot.
Speaker 1: You know, for the the issues that the Diamondbacks have
had this year, it has not extended to this lineup,
which is very good. And I could see them putting
a crooked number on Vasquez.
Speaker 2: So I like the Diamondbacks, but for the parlay, we
are going to go with Rodriguez ed Ward Rodriguez over
four and a half strikeouts. It's raised minus one five
for the full game. And then we've got what was
that line on the Nationals. I didn't write it down.
What you get from.
Speaker 1: Plus one twenty three?
Speaker 4: All right, it's gonna be a nice price today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, we we we need one parlay.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So again, we're still gonna go into the All Star
Break ahead on these. But right now we are up
seven point nine units on the parlay. All I'm basing
that off of is like one dollar. For every one
dollar you've placed on these, you should be up seven
dollars and ninety cents, assuming you played them all equally.
Not where we were at one point on the year,
but that's still I mean, that's still pretty good. The
fact that we've been doing them daily for over two
months and we're still ahead.
Speaker 1: Coming.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rich Milkins, that's my guy, Rich. I see him
at Turning Stone every once in a while. Appreciate you
tuning in.
Speaker 1: Rich. Always love running into you down at the casino.
Speaker 2: He says, plus eight fifty nine with that parlay boost
that DraftKings love that we will grade this plus seven
to seventy.
Speaker 1: This would be a nice one.
Speaker 2: I don't think we've had a seven a seven to
one parlay in a while. That's gonna be raised money line,
NAT's money line. And then over four and a half
strikeouts for Edward Rodriguez. Hopefully today is the day. And yeah,
regardless win or lose, we will be back tomorrow. Final
show for a week. So we'll be back tomorrow nine am.
It's our last show until the following Friday, because of
course we are hitting the All Star break. So hope
all you guys join us, see you at nine am tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Good luck. Cash all your tickets today and we'll talk
to you later.