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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in.

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Speaker 2: It is Thursday time for Total Basis, your daily three

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pick Major League Baseball show right here on wager Talk TV.

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We don't have the full slate today, but still a

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pretty healthy slated games for a Thursday. We've got Mariners, Yankees,

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among others. We'll get to as many as possible while

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still going deep on the ones that we do talk about.

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Speaker 1: So we're just gonna get right into it. It is.

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Speaker 2: I think this is a pretty big series. I'm still

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I got into it on Twitter last night. I was

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on Texas Rangers Twitter for a while. Why I'm not

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quite sure, but I was going back and forth with

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some people about the Rangers and I got in a

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little bit of an Al West banter on social media

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last night and Brian Leonard, I'm still taking the position

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that I still think the Mariners win this division. We

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saw the Astros come back to earth a little bit,

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getting swept by your Cleveland Guardians. I know the Mariners

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haven't showed up in this series yet, but I still

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think someone cat catches the Astros. I'm not buying this

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Astros team, and the most logical team to do it,

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in my opinion, is the Mariners, So I want to

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talk Mariners Yankees, but first I'm curious to see what

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you guys think about the AO West. Does the Astros

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get it done or is there some futures value here

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picking another team, and for me that other team would

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be Seattle.

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Speaker 1: We'll go to Brian first.

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Speaker 3: I don't know what the actual odds are right now,

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so I can't really answer that. I will say Seattle

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sit in six and a half behind right now, the

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Angels nine and a half behind, Rangers ten, Athletic seventeen

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and a half. It's still up for grabs. It's still early.

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They've only played what ninety three games or so, But

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you'd have to think to Houston's got the advantage here.

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If you take a look at net runs on the season,

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they're plus sixty three. The Rangers are next to plus

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thirty three, Seattle plus twelve, and the Angels minus fifty

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seven and the Athletics minus one thirty eight. I'd have

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to look at who's who they've got on the schedule

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and all Houston. Yeah, they have been a little bit fortunate,

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but they've had maybe they just got some good young players.

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They will be getting some people back the Mariners. You know,

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they started the season with two of their best pitchers

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have spent time on the il, especially Kirby. He's been

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out for quite some time, so we'll have to see

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how it goes. I do have some concerns about the

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back of the Mariners starting rotation, and we saw that

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a little bit yesterday. They're pretty good one through three,

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one through four, it is not bad, but they need

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to pick up another starter, or at least get a

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minor leaguer up here that can do better than what

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they have right now.

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Speaker 2: I want to get Tokyo Brandon's tape, but real quick,

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the Astros are a five dollars favorite to win this division.

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Speaker 1: They are minus five hundred to win the Aos.

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Speaker 2: That's why I'm bringing it up, and I want to

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point Colin Gregory makes a really good comment in the chat.

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Look who they're missing? Walker paying you you're on. Myers

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has been out this week. They've had pitching out, so

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maybe Tokyo Brandon, they just need to get healthy. But

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I don't know if minus five hundred, I mean, you

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could get the Texas Rangers right now at twenty two

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to one or the Mariners five to one. I don't know,

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does either of those options interest you? In the Aos TV.

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Speaker 4: The only team that I think would have a shot

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is the Mariners because they're well put together. They have

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a great rotation when they're clicking on all cylinders, and

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they have a really good bullpen. So I think they

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would be the team. But I think the Astros hitting

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is just a little too superior when they have all

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their players there. But it's definitely worth a flyer. You know,

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at Wayja Talk, we put one percent, two percent up

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to five percent on our plays. If you know, I

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have several one percent plays out on plus six hundreds

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or plus one thousands, So depending if the Marior are

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like plus nine hundred or something, it's definitely worth a

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one percent of your bank for all bet on them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean chop around, like I think you could

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probably depending on what book you're at, like the odds

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on these types of futures very greatly. Like I would say,

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if you can get like a seven to one or

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something on the Mariners, absolutely absolutely worth a look, I think. Again,

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I just I don't know if they'll do it, but

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I do think the Astros give like let someone back

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into the mix at some point. I feel like they've

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just played so far above what they were supposed to

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be that that will tighten up at some point. I'm

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gonna go back to Brian Leonard, though, I gotta be honest,

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I had higher hopes for the Mariners in this series.

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I thought this was a big series for them to

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come in swept Pittsburgh. It's sort of a high profile

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series at Yankee Stadium. I thought the Mariners were going

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to show up in this series. They get blown out

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on Tuesday and then they lose last night to a

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kid making his major league debut, essentially Brian Leonard. I

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think this is their best spot to potentially win in

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a game in this series. Can they avoid the sweep

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at Yankee Stadium today?

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Speaker 3: Well, they definitely had the pitching advantage. Brian wu going

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against Marcus stroman Seattle right now is basically about a

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one to fifteenth favorite total of nine. Brian Wu is

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a guy we like, comes in with a two point

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seven seven ERA, three point one to nine expected, zero

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point ninety six whip. His key to his game. He

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doesn't walk anybody, and last year he had a two

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point eight walk grade on the entire season, one hundred

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and twenty one innings. This year, he's at one hundred

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and seven innings. He's a four point five a little

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bit worse. You're not gonna be able to keep that

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two point eight very often in major leagues. But he's

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a guy who doesn't walk people. It keeps you a

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little bit off balanced. It's the kind of guy we like.

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You take a look at Marcus Stroman, and he's had

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a decent career eighty eight and eighty six and eleven

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seasons three point seven seven ERA, that's pretty good. His

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whip has been a little high at one two point

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two eight. It's even worse the last couple of years.

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Last year one point sixty six. The year before one

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point four to seven. He's only pitched nineteen innings, so

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there's not a lot on stat cast, but his fastball

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veloss season, the third percent titles extension and the ninth

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those come around. You can figure those out early without

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a whole lot of pitches. Right now, he's you know,

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he's only thrown three hundred and fifty six pitches on

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the season. But he's a guy we can go against.

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But you know, he seems to be at the end

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of the season most of the times his team is

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able to win the games. Last couple of years, he

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was ten and nine in his games, which on a

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normal team would be okay. On the Yankees, not so

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much this year one and one, So you know what

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we're gonna get out of him. I prefer the Seattle side.

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I agree. I thought Seattle had a good chance to

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win at least one, maybe two in this series. I

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thought yesterday, going up against the rookie, who is the

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right hander, I usually don't look to back rookie right handers.

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I pissed very well. He's one of those guys. Had

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they had a listing of how many players on the

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Yankees or how many times they've hit one hundred miles

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an hour, and out of the first ten, he was

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nine of them and he only pitched one game. So

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tell you the Yankees don't have a lot of flight

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throwers in their rotation. But I prefer Seattle. But I

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would have preferred them at a pick the price. It's

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some places are going down well that now, so we

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may see that by the time the day is over.

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If I get Seattle plus money, I'll be on that side.

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Speaker 4: I just like to say the name Schlitler. I think

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that's great. They say that five times fast. Anyway, he

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had a great game yesterday. Seattle's problem, I mean, if

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they had a good lineup, they would be an elite team. Unfortunately,

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their lineup is a little bit inconsistent. Sometimes their bats

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get really quiet, and that's not what elite teams do.

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Like even the Dodgers generally don't get that quiet. You know,

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when a good team is good, they don't get as

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quiet as the Mariners have been. A Rosarine is coming around,

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he's batting, he's swinging a hot bat right now, but

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not too many guys were given him support right now.

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So I actually don't like the Seattle lineup right now,

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so that would kind of keep me off a side

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in this one. But I do love like Brian said, Brian.

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Speaker 5: Woo woo, woo woo. He's really good.

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Speaker 4: And I think what is the number three in their

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rotation to start the season. That's a heck of a

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number three guy in your rotation. It just tells you

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how good Seattle's rotation is. So Brian wo if I

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want to attack that, how do we do it? Yankees

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are hitting pretty well right now, so I don't know

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if I would like his outs prop. Maybe his strikeout

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prop or his walks under prop would be a good

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play on this one. But either way I would like

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to single him out and make a play on that.

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I don't like either team on the side because this

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looks like one of those like four to three games

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going into the ninth inning kind of thing. Don't really

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know how it's going to turn out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you make a good point about the Mariners lineup there.

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They're very home run dependent. So when you have a

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team that relies on hitting home runs to generate offense

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and collectively they get a little cold, you know, it's

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it's they're they're really not manufacturing runs. They're not it's

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not there's no situational hitting. They're not like draw you know,

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they're not drawing a ton of walks and getting on base.

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So that that kind of makes sense that Mariners can

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have a boomer bust offense to an extent, because it

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seems like it's a little bit contagious.

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Speaker 1: It's like when the.

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Speaker 2: Balls flying out of the yard, it seems like it

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does it for a couple of them. Suddenly you get

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two three home runs in a game. That's usually enough

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offense for the Mariners. To win a lot of games

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when it when it's like one through nine is a

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little bit cold. You're just not getting a ton of

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runners on base, and it's almost like they're sitting around

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waiting for the home run and if they don't get it,

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they're not doing They're not scoring a ton of runs.

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So I totally, I totally see those con I don't

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disagree with that. I agree with Brian big pitching edge

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here for the Mariners at the front of this game

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with wou But Stroman's been you know, when he's on,

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he keeps the ball down and gets ground balls. And

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when he's getting ground ball like he's if he's keeping

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the ball down on his own getting ground balls, it's

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obviously tough to hit a guy like that out of

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the ballpark. So I thought for sure that I was

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going to be on the Mariners here. I saw the

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starting pitching matchup, Mariners lost a couple. I was like,

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this is just this is the spot that I've got

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to be on the Mariners. I'm kind of starting to

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maybe lean towards the Steve Steve Duke makes a good

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point in the chat Stacey He'll Alasky said Mariners are

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not hitting right now the Yankees are Steve agrees with Stacy,

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and I agree with both of them, like maybe and

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Brian kind of said this as well, maybe Yankees take

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some steam. Suddenly you're getting plus money on the Mariners,

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like or like it's really close to even money. That's

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a spot that I might have to to take a

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shot with Brian Wu and just hoping that the Mariners

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offense comes around a little bit here, because we do

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know that when Stroman is off and he's bad, he

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can be bad. Like that's you know, there's there's definitely, uh,

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there's definitely.

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Speaker 1: Evidence of that being the case.

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Speaker 2: I was just like, he did more than I expected

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last time out, and so I'm pumping the brakes a

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little bit on the Stroman fade, but I do still

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lean toward the Mariners here. And Mark Martin says he

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played Wu seven k's and a cold say he's gonna

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ladder some WU strikeouts. Any opinion on that TV You're

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the strikeout guy he likes.

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Speaker 5: Woo oh, I like that. I like that.

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Speaker 4: Actually, if you look at his strikeouts against Well, it's

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the sample size is a little small. I'm projecting his

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strikeouts today at six two five, but you know he

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could get to seven. He could get to seven. You know,

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these guys are human, and when they play the Yankees,

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they get pumped up, especially in Yankee Stadium, they get

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pumped up. So usually you're gonna you're gonna get their

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best outing against the Yankees.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, it's it's it's possible, and I like the price.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we has had very few poor outings this year.

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He's been he's been fantastic, So uh, let's move it along.

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Speaker 2: This is this is a series I've been completely wrong. Thankfully,

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I haven't bet it yet, but I've been completely wrong

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about this Cubs twin series. And I think it might

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be going back to a point I made earlier in

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the week, where it is it is almost vacation time

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for some of these guys. The Cubs have done more

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than enough. The Cubs have done more than enough in

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the first half. They could lose every game the rest

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of the way. They still had a tremendous first half.

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Bryan Leonard, are we just not getting the Cubs fully

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focused in this series because they have not looked good

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the last couple of days.

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Speaker 3: You know, they have not been without the Cubs and

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00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,559
the Astros this week. I'm having a great week. I

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don't think I've picked a game one game correct on

259
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either of those series. It's amazing to me how they

260
00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,840
can go up and down. But that's baseball, that's sports betting,

261
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and we got to learn from it. Colin Ray comes

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in with a four point one three ERA five point

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00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,360
zero two expected one point three to one whip. He

264
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:16,919
is a guy who doesn't walk a lot. Is it

265
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,200
five point nine walk percentage right now? Which is good

266
00:13:19,279 --> 00:13:22,720
enough for the eighty second percentile, it's extension seventieth, but

267
00:13:22,919 --> 00:13:26,720
everything else on his chart is blue. Expected batting average

268
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,840
only in the eighth percent with rate twelve percent, average,

269
00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:33,480
eights of velocity fifteenth. He's a guy if you could

270
00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,919
tell by looking at the expected ERA compared to regular

271
00:13:37,519 --> 00:13:40,720
that he's had some good luck and some regressions coming

272
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his way. Chris Paddick, who I believe we talked about

273
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just the other day and you had mentioned you weren't

274
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a Paddock fan. He's three and seven on the season,

275
00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:53,519
four point six four ERA, four point five to two

276
00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:58,320
expected one point two two whip. Chase rate excellent eighty

277
00:13:58,399 --> 00:14:03,279
nine percentile, walk rate excellent, eightieth percentile extension ninety second.

278
00:14:03,879 --> 00:14:06,639
Then again after that everybody everything else just about is

279
00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:10,240
in the blue. Also not a big strikeout pitcher fifteenth percentile,

280
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:14,159
sixteenth percentile and the whifts. So we've got two guys here.

281
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:18,519
They don't walk a lot of batters, and that's a

282
00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:20,639
good thing, but neither one of them are a big

283
00:14:20,679 --> 00:14:26,799
strikeout guys. We're looking at it's near a pickham. The

284
00:14:26,879 --> 00:14:30,519
Chicago right now is basically about one oh eight, one no. Nine,

285
00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:36,120
and we're looking at Glad that's one ten or so,

286
00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,080
and then we're looking at Minnesota at nine and a half,

287
00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,759
and so the offenses woke up against some pretty good pitching.

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I don't know if I believe in it entirely. Still

289
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:53,039
prefer Because as a team over Minnesota, but the pitching

290
00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:58,399
pitching spot right now probably favors Pattic a little bit.

291
00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:01,080
So if I'm going to play any it would be

292
00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:05,320
the over. But it's an early game and teams have

293
00:15:05,399 --> 00:15:07,600
to travel. We'll see how that goes. A lot of

294
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,639
times we get burned on these Thursday and Sunday get

295
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away games when you're playing totals, So I likely pass

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on this.

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Speaker 4: Guys, do us a huge favor and go to the

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replay this and click the like and leave a comment

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00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,720
for us. Just show wager Talk that you like our

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00:15:23,759 --> 00:15:27,080
show and they'll let us keep going. And if you

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00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,159
look down there, you can see all of our pages.

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00:15:29,279 --> 00:15:32,000
I already have a free play out and an MLB

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00:15:32,159 --> 00:15:35,960
feature play up for sale, so I'm sure Brian and

304
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,799
Adam will too. So pick one of us and go

305
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,039
to our pages. Take for five seconds and go check

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00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,320
it out. Regarding this series, I would love the Cubs

307
00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,519
in this spot, but the way they're playing right now,

308
00:15:47,559 --> 00:15:49,720
you just can't back them right now. I think Adam

309
00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:54,360
is one hundred percent on. They have pretty much the

310
00:15:54,399 --> 00:15:55,360
first half already.

311
00:15:55,679 --> 00:15:56,240
Speaker 5: I don't think.

312
00:15:56,279 --> 00:15:59,919
Speaker 4: I mean, say, s Tuzuki is playing horrible. I mean,

313
00:16:00,159 --> 00:16:04,120
not only is he not producing anything striking every time.

314
00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 5: He's up to that.

315
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,399
Speaker 4: I lost the Cubs, I lost the astros Man. Both

316
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:09,639
of those teams just have their heads up their rears

317
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,840
right now, and I don't see him pulling it out

318
00:16:11,879 --> 00:16:14,600
before the All Star breaks, so I will not be

319
00:16:14,679 --> 00:16:15,600
backing the Cubs.

320
00:16:15,919 --> 00:16:16,320
Speaker 5: Paddock.

321
00:16:16,559 --> 00:16:19,919
Speaker 4: I have him ranked really low in my rankings. On

322
00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:22,480
a curve of thirty, I got him ranked twenty seven However,

323
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,799
if you look how he's performed against these hitters in

324
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,799
his career, he's done really well. So this is another

325
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:33,480
one of those games where Yan Yang cancel each other out.

326
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,480
So I won't be playing this game if I were

327
00:16:36,519 --> 00:16:38,399
to play. One thing, I do have a note right

328
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:43,120
here and it says Ray Ray walks under, so I'll

329
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,559
share something with you. He's walking one point one guys

330
00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:50,320
per start and Minnesota is walking two point five per nine,

331
00:16:50,679 --> 00:16:53,080
so that projects out to one point eight walks. So

332
00:16:53,879 --> 00:16:56,879
I just check DraftKings. The walks over under is not

333
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,720
out yet. When it comes out, maybe his under one

334
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:01,720
and a half walks would be a good play. Like

335
00:17:01,759 --> 00:17:04,039
Brian said, he doesn't walk many people.

336
00:17:06,079 --> 00:17:11,079
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have virtually no opinion from like an actionable

337
00:17:11,079 --> 00:17:13,880
standpoint in this game, so I'll be very quick here.

338
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,720
One thing I will point out is the NL Central standings,

339
00:17:17,759 --> 00:17:19,920
like the Cubs are a little bit different than the

340
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:21,839
Dodgers and some of these other teams where it's like

341
00:17:22,039 --> 00:17:25,000
the Brewers are coming. The Brewers are a game and

342
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:29,480
a half back of the Cubs, and if they don't

343
00:17:29,519 --> 00:17:31,359
wake up, they could very well go into the All

344
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:35,160
Star Break in second in the division. Which is insane

345
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,920
to think considering how the first half has gone. The

346
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:41,079
Cubs had the Yankee Stadium this weekend, rest assured you

347
00:17:41,519 --> 00:17:45,640
will get their full attention from Friday to Sunday most likely,

348
00:17:45,759 --> 00:17:48,480
especially if they drop this game. I think that would

349
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,359
be a big time wake up call as far as

350
00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:54,599
this game's concerned. I can't bet an over because the

351
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,119
Cubs have looked lethargic offensively the last two days. I

352
00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,720
don't want to bet on them just suddenly waking up.

353
00:18:00,079 --> 00:18:01,960
I can't bet the Cubs to bounce back because I

354
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,240
don't want to bet on Colin Ray. And I can't

355
00:18:04,279 --> 00:18:06,839
bet the Twins because I really don't care for Paddock

356
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:08,519
and I feel like I've missed the spot to bet

357
00:18:08,519 --> 00:18:08,920
the Twins.

358
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:10,160
Speaker 1: So I'm out of this game.

359
00:18:10,519 --> 00:18:13,920
Speaker 2: But that's a big series all of a sudden, that's

360
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,319
a very big series this weekend for the Cubs out

361
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,920
at Yankee Stadium. That's something I would would maybe pay

362
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:24,599
attention to, you know this weekend. That again, the Brewers

363
00:18:24,759 --> 00:18:26,640
they if the Cubs lose today, they are one game

364
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:30,400
back in the Central. Incredible stuff based on where these

365
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,240
team teams were a couple of weeks ago.

366
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 1: All right, I want to talk about a doubleheader.

367
00:18:34,039 --> 00:18:36,279
Speaker 2: You guys know I love my double headers, and we've

368
00:18:36,319 --> 00:18:40,200
got one today in Baltimore. So we'll do this the

369
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:44,160
way we always do doubleheaders. We know the Game one starters.

370
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,559
It was the matchup last night, and I don't think

371
00:18:46,839 --> 00:18:49,680
I don't think we talked about this games on yesterday's show,

372
00:18:49,759 --> 00:18:52,319
so we'll give it the full treatment here. I'm more

373
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,319
interested in Game two, so I'm gonna go to Brian

374
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,519
Leonard kick us off Mets Orioles. I'll take thoughts in

375
00:18:57,559 --> 00:19:00,160
either game one or Game two, but me personally, I'm

376
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,200
going to focus on Game two. So are you seeing

377
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:03,680
anything here?

378
00:19:03,759 --> 00:19:05,519
Speaker 1: Do you want to get involved in this double header

379
00:19:05,519 --> 00:19:06,359
at any point today?

380
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,200
Speaker 3: Well, from a weather standpoint, this is the one series,

381
00:19:10,279 --> 00:19:13,880
the one doubleheader, I guess you have to worry about.

382
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,920
It's gonna be some randy in Chicago for the Guardians game,

383
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,759
somewhat of a concern, but this one, They've got to

384
00:19:21,759 --> 00:19:24,240
get two games in and it's supposed to rain all

385
00:19:24,319 --> 00:19:28,359
day there, which is going to be a problem because

386
00:19:29,319 --> 00:19:34,039
they are non conference games, and if you've played future

387
00:19:34,079 --> 00:19:38,960
bets like some of us that have taken the Orioles

388
00:19:39,039 --> 00:19:41,400
under you want to make sure we get all enough

389
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,839
games in because these are less likely to be made

390
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,880
up again because they're in a different league, and it's

391
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,720
probably not important unless either one of these is in

392
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,079
a playoff position where the game means something, they may

393
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,319
not be played and then it hurts our totals for

394
00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:58,000
the season.

395
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,039
Speaker 1: Ryan, I jump in real quick.

396
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:05,119
Speaker 2: It looks it looks like the rain is about it

397
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,160
is gonna stop for the day around eleven am, so

398
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,720
there's no there's no continued rain in the forecast until

399
00:20:11,759 --> 00:20:14,799
way later tonight, So they really should get these games in.

400
00:20:15,319 --> 00:20:17,359
Speaker 1: That's what that's where my weather app is showing.

401
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:22,160
Speaker 3: Mine is showing the first game starts at twelve eastern

402
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,319
twenty three thirty six, forty three thirty seven, thirty eight,

403
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,839
and then the second game forty fifty two forty seven.

404
00:20:30,599 --> 00:20:32,519
So it depends on how much how hard it rains.

405
00:20:32,519 --> 00:20:33,920
You know, a little bit of rain. Is it gonna

406
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,319
help or is it gonna hurt anything? But I did

407
00:20:36,319 --> 00:20:39,200
want to make that out there so people could keep

408
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,680
track of that. Uh, yeah, we're getting in in the

409
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:47,880
first game, We've got Peterson against Morton. I thought it

410
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,240
was Stagano was originally scheduled.

411
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,279
Speaker 1: He's gonna start game two.

412
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought he was originally yesterday supposed to start

413
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,920
game once. So maybe it does a pitching change. Peterson

414
00:20:57,039 --> 00:21:00,440
left you going against Baltimore, and right now mets her

415
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,599
about a one twenty eight favorite total of nine nine

416
00:21:03,599 --> 00:21:06,519
and a half obviously a nine over nine and a

417
00:21:06,559 --> 00:21:12,920
half under. Peterson's on the road, And as I was

418
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,559
pointed out by somebody and I can't remember who it was,

419
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,759
in the chat the other day, they talked about Peterson's

420
00:21:18,799 --> 00:21:21,440
home road dichotomy. And so let's take a look at

421
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:25,000
his splits on this season at home five and zero

422
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,079
two point one one era on the road one in

423
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:32,599
four four point four to four. Still smaller sample sizes totally.

424
00:21:32,599 --> 00:21:36,000
He's only pitched about one hundred innings so far this season,

425
00:21:36,599 --> 00:21:39,680
but he's very good with his extension ninety fifth percentile,

426
00:21:39,839 --> 00:21:43,680
ground ball rate, ninety fourth, barrel rate eighty second all good.

427
00:21:44,039 --> 00:21:47,599
But he does get head a little bit, but because

428
00:21:47,599 --> 00:21:49,720
of his ground ball rate, not a lot of fly balls,

429
00:21:49,759 --> 00:21:53,519
and that's always a good thing. Charlie Morton, who looked

430
00:21:53,559 --> 00:21:57,680
like he was washed earlier in the season. His year

431
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,720
to date records series look like he still. Washby's pitched

432
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,480
a lot better as of late five point four to

433
00:22:02,519 --> 00:22:05,519
seventy ra four point three four, So some good luck

434
00:22:05,559 --> 00:22:08,240
Chynick in his way one point five to five whip

435
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,920
that has been his weakness the last few years. Fifth

436
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,920
percentage sixty seven percentile, that's what he does the best

437
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:21,000
from walking walk right twenty fifth percentile, average ex velosity

438
00:22:21,039 --> 00:22:25,759
eighteen stension twenty three. More bad than good with Charlie Morton,

439
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,519
but as I said, he has pitched better as of late.

440
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,440
With the line currently what it is, I'm probably going

441
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,200
to pass on this game. And right now the Mets

442
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:37,839
don't know who they're going to use, at least it's

443
00:22:37,839 --> 00:22:42,519
not on this on the our Odds Logic website as

444
00:22:42,519 --> 00:22:44,400
to who they're going to go against Sagana in the

445
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,640
second game, but they should have some success against Sarghano.

446
00:22:49,799 --> 00:22:53,079
Speaker 4: This is one of those games where my numbers point

447
00:22:53,079 --> 00:22:55,519
one way, but the eye test points the other way.

448
00:22:56,079 --> 00:22:59,200
My numbers like Baltimore here, my number is like Charlie

449
00:22:59,240 --> 00:22:59,960
Morton a lot.

450
00:23:00,079 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 5: I don't know why.

451
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:06,039
Speaker 4: My numbers are kind of a recent recency biased and

452
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:09,799
also a lot of expected era is mixed in so

453
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,759
maybe he's just being unlucky, but his home era and

454
00:23:13,799 --> 00:23:17,160
his away era both are five plus. That's a guy

455
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,519
I really don't want to trust, but my numbers really like.

456
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 5: Him, and I don't know why.

457
00:23:22,039 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 4: Now. Looking at the bullpens, both bullpens pretty good. Baltimore's

458
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:30,160
is performing slightly better. I still have Morton performing better

459
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:34,599
than Peterson also, and the lineups are both negligible pretty even.

460
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,240
I might take a flyer on Baltimore here in game

461
00:23:38,279 --> 00:23:42,039
one because my numbers like him and the price is

462
00:23:42,079 --> 00:23:45,200
really good plus one thirty or in that range. I

463
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,519
think it would be worth worth a play here because

464
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:49,880
I think they're playing better than the Mets right now.

465
00:23:52,559 --> 00:23:55,599
Speaker 2: I will be a spectator in game one. I have

466
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,880
no interest in betting Game one. However, I am looking

467
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:00,640
at the Mets in game two, so I'm gonna tell

468
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,720
you what I hope happens, and if it all shakes out,

469
00:24:04,759 --> 00:24:07,240
I'll probably have a client play on the Mets in

470
00:24:07,319 --> 00:24:12,160
game two. So bullpen depth huge advantage for the Mets.

471
00:24:12,559 --> 00:24:17,240
Mets have a much deeper a collection of bullpen arms,

472
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,759
and so for me, that's where the edge is here

473
00:24:20,759 --> 00:24:24,079
in this sort of series for the Mets the two

474
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:28,759
game series today the doubleheader. I once you get past

475
00:24:28,799 --> 00:24:31,240
the Orioles couple high leverage arms, there's a big drop

476
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:32,039
off in their bullpen.

477
00:24:32,079 --> 00:24:32,559
Speaker 1: And it's why.

478
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: I mean, if you just pull up very quickly look

479
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,079
at like bullpen e RA and some of the surface metrics,

480
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,559
the Orioles are near the bottom of the league in

481
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,400
all of those categories. Mets are probably you know, the

482
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,440
Mets are not. They don't have the elite bullpen I

483
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,960
thought they might have this year, but they certainly have

484
00:24:47,799 --> 00:24:50,000
more arms than the Orioles. Now, what I think the

485
00:24:50,039 --> 00:24:52,640
Mets are gonna do with pitching in Game two is

486
00:24:52,759 --> 00:24:56,200
call up twenty seventh man to be a bulk guy.

487
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:57,599
Speaker 1: I don't know who it's gonna be.

488
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna be tid Well because he

489
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,240
pitched the other day for Syracuse in that role, so

490
00:25:02,279 --> 00:25:04,440
I don't think he's ready to turn around and pitch

491
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:09,119
again yet. Maybe it's Justin Hagenman. He has been very

492
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,720
solid in this role for the Mets this year. Like

493
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,480
he's someone I've got to watch quite a bit over

494
00:25:14,519 --> 00:25:16,759
at Syracuse and he's like the perfect guy to have

495
00:25:16,839 --> 00:25:20,440
in your organization, where I think he knows he's not

496
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,839
really a big leaguer, Like, he just knows his place.

497
00:25:23,839 --> 00:25:26,279
He's happy to come up, get the opportunity to throw

498
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,559
three four relief innings. He knows he's going back down.

499
00:25:28,599 --> 00:25:31,799
He embraces that role. He was really good in that

500
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,599
role earlier this year when the Mets sort of used

501
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,119
him as like the twenty seventh man doubleheader guy. And

502
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,799
I have a feeling based on like who's available down

503
00:25:40,839 --> 00:25:44,480
there in that Mets Syracuse Mets rotation in bullpen right now,

504
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:45,079
that it's.

505
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 1: Probably gonna be him.

506
00:25:46,559 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 2: They could go one of a couple of ways, because

507
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,839
all of a sudden, Syracuse has some really good young

508
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,680
relief pitchers. I just don't think the way the Mets

509
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,480
treat they're pitching, they tend to like to go veteran.

510
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,240
So it's more likely that it's a guy like Brandon

511
00:25:59,279 --> 00:26:02,400
Wadeo or Justin Hagenman that comes up as the bulk guy.

512
00:26:02,839 --> 00:26:04,319
Speaker 1: But either would be fine with me.

513
00:26:05,079 --> 00:26:07,039
Speaker 2: Well, because either as fine with me because you got

514
00:26:07,039 --> 00:26:09,799
Hageman who's been good in this role, or Whydell, who's

515
00:26:09,799 --> 00:26:13,759
a lefty and the Orioles really struggle more with left

516
00:26:13,759 --> 00:26:17,640
handed pitching. So if I can get the Mets against Sugano,

517
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,759
who I don't think is very good, who I think

518
00:26:19,799 --> 00:26:22,920
they could absolutely generate some offense against, and I like

519
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:24,240
how the bullpen sets up.

520
00:26:24,519 --> 00:26:26,039
Speaker 1: They'll probably use an opener.

521
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:30,279
Speaker 2: I think they've used Brazzavan in this opening role before.

522
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:31,799
They If they're gonna do something like that, and you're

523
00:26:31,839 --> 00:26:33,920
gonna give me minus one ozh five or like even

524
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,720
money on the Mets in Game two, that's a home

525
00:26:36,799 --> 00:26:39,920
run spot for the Mets in my opinion. Again, it's

526
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,880
contingent on what happens in game one. If David Peterson

527
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,160
wins a four to three game and they use every

528
00:26:45,319 --> 00:26:48,440
leverage bullpen arm to close that game out, I probably

529
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,039
can't do it. But if the game, if Game one

530
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:52,960
goes a little bit differently, where it's maybe it's a

531
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,599
Mets blowout win, maybe it's an Orioles win where the

532
00:26:55,599 --> 00:26:59,079
Mets don't really use their top guys, I'm absolutely.

533
00:26:58,519 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 1: Coming back with the Mets in Game two. So I'll

534
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:02,119
leave it like that. I'm not going to use it

535
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,480
in the parlay because we don't know how Game one

536
00:27:04,599 --> 00:27:08,680
is gone, but if that scenario pops up, it'll likely

537
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:09,680
be a client play for me.

538
00:27:09,759 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 2: So very strong. Look to me for the Mets in

539
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:16,079
game two of this doubleheader today. All right, let's move

540
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,559
on Rogue Energy. Rogue Energy says might be the White

541
00:27:19,559 --> 00:27:22,480
Sox again today. Want to see what y'all think. Well,

542
00:27:22,519 --> 00:27:24,720
we've got a Guardians expert on the panel, so we're

543
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,319
going to go right to him. White Sox and suddenly

544
00:27:27,759 --> 00:27:30,160
the White Hot Guardians. Brian Leonard, how are you seeing

545
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:30,680
this one?

546
00:27:31,799 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 3: Well, when he got the best player on the team

547
00:27:34,559 --> 00:27:39,359
on fire, and that's we are, Rigez Ramerez, excuse me,

548
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:46,400
that is something we like. Problemz. He was on I

549
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,279
believe it all for twenty one streak before that. So

550
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,839
baseball is very streaky. It's one of those sports that

551
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,759
a lot of highs and lows. Logan Allen going today

552
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:01,200
for Cleveland. He's a lefty going against the White against Cannon.

553
00:28:01,839 --> 00:28:04,079
All right, now we're finding Cleveland about a one twenty

554
00:28:04,079 --> 00:28:06,640
five one to twenty six favorite total eight and a

555
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,960
half here, Logan Allen, I usually try to avoid. He

556
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,519
comes in with a four point oh seventy ra four

557
00:28:13,519 --> 00:28:16,200
point four to six expected, one point four to three whip.

558
00:28:16,599 --> 00:28:19,279
The whip is a concern. He's been in the majors

559
00:28:19,279 --> 00:28:22,359
three years now, and every single year his walk rate

560
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,000
has been highs in the twenty fifth percentile in that

561
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:30,440
and as good as he's been so far, he doesn't

562
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:34,480
have much fastball velocity six percent ofle with eight ninth

563
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:39,640
percentle eleventh percentile in chase rate, so he's walks a

564
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,440
lot of people. He's walked sixty five players in eighty

565
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,759
four are going to be struck out sixty five players

566
00:28:45,759 --> 00:28:49,160
in eighty four innings, but his struck outline, his walk

567
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,640
grade is only eight eight point zero, not good enough

568
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,799
to be a major leaguer at this point, and so

569
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:59,640
he's usually somebody I'm looking to fade. Jonathan Cannon comes

570
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,759
in four point five ERA, four point eight six expected,

571
00:29:03,119 --> 00:29:07,279
one point four to six whip. Though his whip is high,

572
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,240
walk grade is actually a little bit less than the

573
00:29:10,279 --> 00:29:12,880
league average is an eighty point one. The garage is

574
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,359
eight point four. But when you take a look at

575
00:29:15,359 --> 00:29:17,960
the stack, caspage just all blue. The best thing he

576
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:22,799
does he's in the fifty percentile walk rate, and that's

577
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,200
by zero point three percent. So not a guy I'm

578
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,880
looking to back here, going against another picture I'm not

579
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,559
looking to back, which means, let's take a look at

580
00:29:32,559 --> 00:29:34,319
the total. We're looking at eight and a half here

581
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,559
in Chicago. I did mention there will be lightly likely

582
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,400
some rain there. They're going from a dome in which

583
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,000
they didn't have to deal with any kind of weather

584
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:46,000
to Chicago. They're somewhat like the over end this game.

585
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,680
I don't know if I trust the the Cleveland offense overall,

586
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,759
but when your best hitter is red hot, that can

587
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,440
change in no time, so slightly to the over probably

588
00:29:58,440 --> 00:29:59,680
won't get involved.

589
00:30:01,319 --> 00:30:03,119
Speaker 5: The way I would approach this game.

590
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 4: Well, the first thing I do is I lay out

591
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,680
the starters and the pitchers and see what's up, and

592
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:12,119
then I see how they perform against each other. Yes,

593
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,960
baseball is very streaky. Cleveland was ice cold until the

594
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,119
last two games. Now they're starting to hit home runs

595
00:30:19,119 --> 00:30:23,920
and they're starting to score. The White Socks never really

596
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,640
that much of a scoring team. Their strength is more

597
00:30:26,839 --> 00:30:29,559
they have some decent arms, the White Socks do, and

598
00:30:29,599 --> 00:30:31,680
they got some decent arms in their bullpen as well.

599
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,480
I think both of these teams have pretty decent bullpens.

600
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,839
Cleveland's is finally coming around a little bit. They were

601
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,119
ranked quite low in my rankings, but now they're up

602
00:30:41,359 --> 00:30:46,920
above the Mendoza line as far as mediocrity, toiling and mediocrity.

603
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,359
So if I look at how each starting pitcher goes

604
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,440
against the batters that they're facing today, they both have

605
00:30:52,519 --> 00:30:56,440
pretty bad numbers OPS over seven fifty for both of them.

606
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,640
That is kind of a red flag for me. If

607
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,359
I don't really like a side and both pitchers perform

608
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,680
poorly against the other team, I would see which one

609
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,240
I'm projecting to the outs under. And Cannon is a

610
00:31:10,279 --> 00:31:13,359
guy who does not go deep into games. The book

611
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,319
right now has him at fifteen point five outs recorded.

612
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,039
If you don't know what that means, fifteen outs is

613
00:31:19,359 --> 00:31:22,240
exactly five innings, So fifteen point five means he has

614
00:31:22,279 --> 00:31:24,960
to record an out in the sixth inning. If you

615
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,119
look at how he's done the season, he rarely does that.

616
00:31:27,839 --> 00:31:32,039
And I project him at around thirteen or thirteen point

617
00:31:32,119 --> 00:31:35,839
nine or about fourteen outs just under the fifth inning'll

618
00:31:36,079 --> 00:31:38,400
he might finish the fifth inning. I highly doubt Jonathan

619
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,680
Cannon will be recording an out in the sixth inning.

620
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,519
You know, I could be wrong. It's gambling, but if

621
00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:47,240
I were to bet this game, I would do Jonathan

622
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,240
cannon under fifteen and a half outs recorded. I haven't

623
00:31:50,279 --> 00:31:53,079
done it yet, TB.

624
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,039
Speaker 2: You hit with Howser yesterday on the over, and I

625
00:31:57,079 --> 00:31:59,240
think for many of the same reasons that I talked

626
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,240
about yesterday, you're probably going to be right on Cannon under.

627
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,519
Here's why go back to exactly what I said yesterday.

628
00:32:05,559 --> 00:32:08,119
Will Venable is managing the White Sox like a Triple

629
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,440
A team. It is a developmental team right now and

630
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,440
and and it's actually it's making them very appealing to

631
00:32:14,519 --> 00:32:17,920
bet On because I think I think he's sort of

632
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,200
creating this culture of like it's all young guys, it's

633
00:32:21,279 --> 00:32:23,920
all guys that are that are thrilled to be playing

634
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,160
Major League baseball. He's trying to put basically everyone in

635
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:31,039
a position to see succeed. And what that means is

636
00:32:31,039 --> 00:32:33,960
he's platooning guys, He's putting a lineup out that's never

637
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,640
the same back to back days. You know, he's he's

638
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:41,000
he's just playing matchups. But more importantly, no one's sitting

639
00:32:41,079 --> 00:32:42,759
on the bench for more than a day or two.

640
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,119
Speaker 1: And he's going to use all of his pitchers.

641
00:32:45,119 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: So last yesterday I told you I said, Howsard's gonna

642
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,839
go until he gives him he gets in trouble, right

643
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:56,240
because that he's been he's been good, so there's no

644
00:32:56,279 --> 00:32:59,240
reason to take him out of the game. Cannon is

645
00:32:59,279 --> 00:33:02,200
probably like after a game like that, I don't think

646
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,160
he wants to put Jonathan Cannon in a position to fail. Now, Cannon,

647
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,039
if you look at his numbers, he's no Adriane Hawser

648
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,599
right now, He's a guy that I think Venable's more

649
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,599
likely to protect, similar similar to like what they do

650
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,319
with guys to triple A. They're gonna let him go

651
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:19,200
once through if he gets his pitch count up, no problem.

652
00:33:19,519 --> 00:33:21,720
If you know, if it's the fourth inning and he's

653
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,400
he's there at like seventy pitches, they're just gonna take

654
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,920
him out. They don't care. They've got the next thing.

655
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,119
He wants to get the next guy innings. So unless

656
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,960
the unless he's in absolute cruise control mode, you're probably

657
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,039
right TV. He's not gonna be forced to go deep

658
00:33:36,039 --> 00:33:38,440
in this game. They're gonna be fine with four innings

659
00:33:38,839 --> 00:33:41,039
and they're gonna go to the next guy to give

660
00:33:41,119 --> 00:33:43,759
him three innings and then they'll you know, it's just

661
00:33:43,839 --> 00:33:47,000
it is exactly how big teams manage triple A, and

662
00:33:47,039 --> 00:33:48,960
I think that's what you're gonna continue to see out

663
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,880
of the White Sox here. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean

664
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,079
the White Socks are a fade. I think it's the opposite,

665
00:33:54,119 --> 00:33:56,960
because again, you've got a team that is showing up

666
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:57,359
each day.

667
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 1: They're ready to play.

668
00:33:58,359 --> 00:34:01,039
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna have the dip of like, oh,

669
00:34:01,079 --> 00:34:03,519
we're going into the All Star break and we're tired,

670
00:34:03,559 --> 00:34:05,839
we're ready for a break, because none of these guys

671
00:34:05,839 --> 00:34:07,720
were here a couple months ago, at least half of

672
00:34:07,759 --> 00:34:10,239
them weren't. So in my opinion, they're like, no, we

673
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,039
just want to keep playing baseball, right Kyle Teal wants

674
00:34:13,079 --> 00:34:15,079
to be in a big league lineup every day. Colson

675
00:34:15,119 --> 00:34:17,599
Montgomery wants to play big league baseball every day. So

676
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,880
I think right now the next few days, the White

677
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,320
Sox might be the most energized team.

678
00:34:22,639 --> 00:34:23,119
Speaker 1: They got a.

679
00:34:23,159 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 2: Nice win yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised if they won

680
00:34:25,519 --> 00:34:27,199
this game today. I don't know if I'm getting the

681
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,239
right price. I would have loved a White Sox plus

682
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,679
one and a half. It's about twenty cents off of

683
00:34:33,079 --> 00:34:35,800
where I want it, so a slight lean toward White

684
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,119
Sox money line. Definitely like the plus one and a

685
00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:39,920
half if you want to like pair it with something,

686
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,679
because I don't really want to lay a dollar forty five.

687
00:34:42,559 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: To back them plus one and a half.

688
00:34:44,199 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 2: And I also do think you could see some offense

689
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,800
because I don't like Logan Allen either. I think he's

690
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,800
aside from generating some soft contact, he will give up runs.

691
00:34:53,159 --> 00:34:54,559
Speaker 1: Cannon is not trustworthy.

692
00:34:54,639 --> 00:34:57,159
Speaker 2: It's only eight and a half, So I would say

693
00:34:57,159 --> 00:35:01,760
White Sox and over brote energy saxon over is how

694
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:05,119
I look at this game. All right, let's continue on.

695
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,039
Let's continue on. We might get to most of them today.

696
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:15,519
Uh I got one. Yeah, let's let's go back to well,

697
00:35:15,639 --> 00:35:16,719
let's let's see we've.

698
00:35:16,559 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 3: Got let me let me throw one out. Yeah, go ahead.

699
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,199
I want it to be my part of the parlor.

700
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:27,039
Uh So, while we're deciding on yours, I'll throw ours out.

701
00:35:27,079 --> 00:35:31,159
I'm gonna look at the Washington Saint Louis game. Currently

702
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:35,440
Soroka against michaelas michaelis Michaels is about one thirty five

703
00:35:36,079 --> 00:35:38,039
and the total is eight and a half to the

704
00:35:38,159 --> 00:35:46,519
over minus twenty five. Michael Soroka, and I'm pretty stubborn

705
00:35:46,519 --> 00:35:49,639
in this way. When you go into a game and

706
00:35:49,679 --> 00:35:53,800
you're looking at expected DRA against the regularly RA. Regularly

707
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:57,639
RA five point four zero, expected d RA three point

708
00:35:57,679 --> 00:36:01,639
one nine, he's got a lot of positives coming towards him.

709
00:36:01,679 --> 00:36:04,679
Sometimes it happens in one game. Sometimes it takes all

710
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,039
year to get there. But he's a guy that has

711
00:36:07,039 --> 00:36:10,039
some positive numbers looking at him. He's got a one

712
00:36:10,079 --> 00:36:14,000
point one four whip. His strikeout minus walk RAYIHOW sixteen

713
00:36:14,039 --> 00:36:18,920
is about league average. He is at nineteen point eight now.

714
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:23,599
The problem being the last two years Michael Soroka is

715
00:36:23,679 --> 00:36:28,079
three and sixteen. That's his record teams. Last year he

716
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:32,039
wasn't very good. He's coming back from injury, did not

717
00:36:32,599 --> 00:36:36,800
perform very well. But still we've seen this from certain teams.

718
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,400
We see from schemes all the time. A lot of

719
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:41,920
these guys just don't get any reun support, and that

720
00:36:42,039 --> 00:36:44,320
may be the case with Soroka because his numbers are

721
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,239
really good. He's in the eighty second percent on and

722
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:51,280
expected batting gabage, seventy eighth in walk percentage seventy six

723
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,719
to barrel percentage. He's very good all around, and his

724
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:58,199
number show he is not getting the credit for as

725
00:36:58,199 --> 00:37:01,440
well as he is pitching. I got to keep going

726
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,320
back there. And a lot of people will look at

727
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,280
that three and sixteen the last two years say I

728
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,960
don't want any part of them. Well, somebody I don't

729
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,280
want any part of is Miles Michelis. He's got a

730
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,119
five point two six ERA after a five point three

731
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,400
five ERA last year, four point seven to eight ERA

732
00:37:16,559 --> 00:37:20,199
the year before, five point twenty five is expected right now,

733
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,320
and a one point three to four whip. His walk

734
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,519
rate overall's that's what he does. He throws the ball

735
00:37:26,599 --> 00:37:28,039
right down the middle of the plate and if you

736
00:37:28,039 --> 00:37:30,199
can hit it, you can hit it, and is at

737
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,440
five point three right now in his career walk great

738
00:37:33,559 --> 00:37:38,400
is four point three, so he's very good in that position. Unfortunately,

739
00:37:38,519 --> 00:37:41,280
he's never been a strikeout guy, so his strikeout on

740
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,880
his walk ray show is ten point seven on the season,

741
00:37:44,519 --> 00:37:46,960
walk grate eighty nine percent ole. He's great, that's what

742
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,719
he's known for. But check out some of these other numbers.

743
00:37:50,199 --> 00:37:54,239
Fifth rate, second percentile, barrel rate, fifth percent out, strike

744
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,039
that rate, ninth percentile. This is a guy that gets

745
00:37:57,079 --> 00:38:00,199
hit hard, and this Washington team, we've seen it they've

746
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,119
been up and down off actually, but they got a

747
00:38:02,119 --> 00:38:05,000
lot of young guys that can hit. I like Washington here,

748
00:38:05,039 --> 00:38:07,519
and you're getting them, in my opinion, with a much

749
00:38:07,559 --> 00:38:10,400
better starting pitcher, and you're getting them at plus money

750
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:14,719
here against Saint Louis. Give me Washington as my parlay

751
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:18,519
it plus plus one twenty three. Let's say.

752
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 4: I agree with everything that Brian said, and I'll add

753
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,960
a little bit more. I was very skeptical when Soroka

754
00:38:28,039 --> 00:38:28,960
started this season.

755
00:38:29,639 --> 00:38:30,800
Speaker 5: I thought he was washed.

756
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 4: He gave up maybe an average three to four runs

757
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,280
every start when he was out at the beginning. He

758
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,719
had one little stretch there where he only gave up

759
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:43,519
one or two earned runs in like four starts straight,

760
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,519
and then his last start he got blown up by Boston.

761
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,519
Speaker 5: But my numbers don't really like him.

762
00:38:49,519 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 4: But he does pass the eye test, and he's striking

763
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:56,079
out ten guys per nine inning. That's very impressive. If

764
00:38:56,119 --> 00:38:58,320
you bet his strikeout prop, you don't have to worry

765
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,199
about him getting blown up, although they might take him

766
00:39:01,199 --> 00:39:04,800
out of the game early, which does negatively affect your

767
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:10,000
strikeout prop. His outs right now are sixteen and a

768
00:39:10,039 --> 00:39:13,360
half by the book, sixteen and a half outs recorded

769
00:39:14,039 --> 00:39:16,800
or I'm sorry, seventeen and a half outs. So the

770
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,920
book is asking you, will he or will he not

771
00:39:19,079 --> 00:39:22,119
finish the sixth inning? I have him not finishing the

772
00:39:22,199 --> 00:39:25,239
sixth inning, but I do have his strikeouts rather high.

773
00:39:25,519 --> 00:39:28,840
So that's how I would approach that Micholas is awful.

774
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:30,119
Did he pitch in Korea?

775
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:30,639
Speaker 5: Out him?

776
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,559
Speaker 2: He pitched in Japan a long time ago. Yeah, I

777
00:39:34,599 --> 00:39:36,960
know he got for like a decade he picked.

778
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:41,119
Speaker 4: He wasn't in Korea though, right, No, not in careak Okay.

779
00:39:41,199 --> 00:39:43,760
He was terrible in Japan too. I was really surprised

780
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,599
that Major League Baseball took him back because he was

781
00:39:46,599 --> 00:39:50,440
not good out here. But the way I would approach

782
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,000
it is I would I would single out one of

783
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:57,679
the pitchers and either take their strikeouts or outs props

784
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:02,519
soroka strikeouts over or outs under would be a way

785
00:40:02,559 --> 00:40:05,159
I would go here, and guys go to the replay,

786
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,440
click the like and leave a comment for us. Tell

787
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:08,840
wage to talk that you like our show.

788
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 2: Uh, Shawn's got me scrambling. I did not if he

789
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,639
got demoted to triple A, I missed that. I didn't

790
00:40:16,679 --> 00:40:18,800
think Michael has got sent down. I thought that would

791
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,599
have been a bigger deal if he did. I'm not

792
00:40:20,639 --> 00:40:23,840
saying that they wouldn't wouldn't be considering it. Uh, the

793
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,239
Cardinals have a couple of guys down there right now

794
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,320
that are I think, you know, Quinn Matthews is starting

795
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,039
to build back up. So I'm not saying they wouldn't

796
00:40:31,039 --> 00:40:33,920
consider it. But I did not see that. I I mean,

797
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,599
I don't disagree. He's probably a guy that you know,

798
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,760
could could end up at Triple A at some point,

799
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:43,119
but he's still here as far as I know, I

800
00:40:43,159 --> 00:40:44,639
am in full agreement.

801
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 1: With Brian Leonard.

802
00:40:45,639 --> 00:40:49,039
Speaker 2: I gave out Nationals as my parlay leg yesterday. My rationale,

803
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:52,320
they're much better against right handed pitching, and they went

804
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:54,559
out and knocked around a pretty good uh you know

805
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,920
they Polante was the pitcher yesterday. No problem there. They

806
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:02,119
generated offense. Uh, it's we've Tokyo Brand has made this

807
00:41:02,159 --> 00:41:05,559
point all year. The books shade the Gnats. They treat

808
00:41:05,639 --> 00:41:08,800
him as a bad team, which which they are. I

809
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,639
mean in the context of Major League Baseball. In the league,

810
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,559
the Nats are not a great baseball team. However, they're

811
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:17,760
they're one of these young teams. That's that's you know,

812
00:41:18,639 --> 00:41:22,679
infusing their roster with with tomorrow's talent, if you will,

813
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:27,360
right the James Woods, uh, James Wood, Dalen Lyle's been up.

814
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:30,119
Speaker 1: I know Robert Hassel's back down at Triple A right now.

815
00:41:30,119 --> 00:41:31,639
Speaker 2: But like, these are the types of guys that have

816
00:41:31,639 --> 00:41:33,639
played a lot of innings for them this year. And

817
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,000
and yes, you're you're absolutely right. They're a little bit

818
00:41:36,039 --> 00:41:39,400
shaded by the books. But where they thrive, like where

819
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:41,159
you want to bet this team is when they're up

820
00:41:41,159 --> 00:41:44,199
against right handed pitching because their lineup is so left heavy.

821
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,039
The splits, even if the splits on paper don't jump

822
00:41:47,119 --> 00:41:50,280
off the page right now, the way that lineup is

823
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:53,840
currently constructed is to bang around right handed pitching. They

824
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:55,920
did it yesterday, they'll probably do it today. And as

825
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,400
far as Mike sarc is concerned, he's healthy. This year,

826
00:41:58,760 --> 00:41:59,719
he hasn't been healthy.

827
00:42:00,119 --> 00:42:00,280
Speaker 1: You know.

828
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 2: He was battling a multitude of injuries during his time

829
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,519
in Atlanta and then and then with the White Sox.

830
00:42:06,559 --> 00:42:09,119
I mean he had two or three injuries completely derail

831
00:42:09,159 --> 00:42:12,000
his career. This year, he's healthy. I don't think he'll

832
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:13,719
ever get back to what we thought he could have

833
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:15,960
been with the braves, but he's been a pretty consistent

834
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,719
like he's been a pretty solid option for five innings

835
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:19,360
for the Nationals.

836
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,079
Speaker 1: So yeah, Brian, I'm with you. Why not the Nationals

837
00:42:22,079 --> 00:42:22,840
at plus money here?

838
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,159
Speaker 2: I think it makes complete sense and I think you

839
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:28,280
get another good effort from the Nats again today.

840
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 5: Go ahead, yeah, go ahead, five seconds real quick.

841
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:33,519
Speaker 4: I forgot to say the Washington Nationals team total is

842
00:42:33,519 --> 00:42:36,000
always a good choice in their games because, like you said,

843
00:42:36,039 --> 00:42:37,599
the book, slide them.

844
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:38,119
Speaker 1: Yeah.

845
00:42:38,119 --> 00:42:39,760
Speaker 2: And one other thing to point out, they won that

846
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,480
game big yesterday, so that NAT's bullpen that doesn't have

847
00:42:42,519 --> 00:42:44,400
a ton of depth not really a concern.

848
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:45,679
Speaker 1: They didn't use the bullpen arms.

849
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 2: I think Brian made my life easier because I would

850
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:52,199
have one hundred percent used that as my parlay leg

851
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,039
and I had like three I was going to use.

852
00:42:54,079 --> 00:42:58,519
Speaker 1: So I've we've narrowed it down. Chris b not sure

853
00:42:58,559 --> 00:43:00,960
why that Nats line went up so hi yesterday. Yeah,

854
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:01,320
I couldn't.

855
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:04,199
Speaker 2: I couldn't get that either, and it scared me off

856
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:08,000
from a client play standpoint, I was sitting there. Unfortunately

857
00:43:08,039 --> 00:43:10,000
I hit with pirates plus one and a half, but

858
00:43:10,079 --> 00:43:11,920
I kind of pumped the brakes on Nats. I was like,

859
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:14,719
why are the Cardinals taking so much money? Turned out

860
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,360
to not matter. It was an easy winner. And Spencer

861
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:20,519
Paris says, Nashals have been on fire to another team.

862
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:25,039
These young teams, young kids, young teams snowball right, Like,

863
00:43:25,079 --> 00:43:28,679
when they're playing good, it's good. They can string wins together.

864
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:32,039
When they're playing bad, it can go the complete other direction.

865
00:43:32,119 --> 00:43:35,559
The Nats certainly fall into that category in my opinion.

866
00:43:35,639 --> 00:43:36,840
Speaker 1: So good points all around.

867
00:43:37,199 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 2: From the chat from Brian from Tokyo, Brandon and we've

868
00:43:41,039 --> 00:43:44,360
got the first leg of our parlay locked in with

869
00:43:45,119 --> 00:43:48,719
the Nats. Okay, we're rolling here. Still seventeen minutes left,

870
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:50,039
still a lot of games to talk about.

871
00:43:50,039 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 4: Adam, let me hijack the comment real quick, is this true?

872
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,679
Has he given up twelve home runs in six games?

873
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,639
Speaker 1: I would have to check that real quickly now.

874
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 5: If that's take the Washington team total right now.

875
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:10,519
Speaker 3: He's given up six home runs against the Cups the

876
00:44:10,599 --> 00:44:13,239
other day. If you remember that game, believe, oh yeah

877
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:14,480
that was again yep.

878
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 2: Uh.

879
00:44:15,159 --> 00:44:19,760
Speaker 3: Then he gave up too against Cleveland, which is almost

880
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:24,079
giving up the Cubs.

881
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, that's I mean, listen, he rarely are you

882
00:44:29,039 --> 00:44:33,840
gonna like propose a fade of Micholas and it's going

883
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:36,079
to be a bad bet at this point. Like, he's

884
00:44:36,079 --> 00:44:39,079
he's someone that I think is there because they lack

885
00:44:39,159 --> 00:44:42,039
better options. He's a veteran, they're trying to grind a

886
00:44:42,079 --> 00:44:44,280
one hundred and sixty two game season. He's a professional.

887
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,119
They know he can go out. Give him five to

888
00:44:46,159 --> 00:44:48,199
six innings. He'll probably give up a couple of bombs,

889
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:50,800
but he's like, he's just one of those guys that

890
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:52,559
is going to sit in that fifth spot in a

891
00:44:52,639 --> 00:44:56,079
rotation until the Cardinals have someone come up and grab it.

892
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,519
And I know they wanted it to be Quinn Matthews,

893
00:44:58,559 --> 00:45:00,000
but he was hurt at the beginning of the year.

894
00:45:00,159 --> 00:45:02,760
So it's really just no one else has stepped up

895
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:08,039
and taken that spot at this point, although there are

896
00:45:08,119 --> 00:45:09,639
guys coming for it. So if you want to keep

897
00:45:09,679 --> 00:45:11,599
betting against Nicholas, this might be one of your last

898
00:45:11,679 --> 00:45:14,320
chances to do so with him as a starter in

899
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:18,679
that mutation. Chris b raised minus one and a half

900
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,239
or might raise minus one oh five. This one was

901
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:24,239
on my radar. I could see it. It's Walker Buehler

902
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:28,599
for the Red Sox. Where is my raised starter here?

903
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:32,599
I just clicked out, Oh is it Todz Bradley, Taz Bradley.

904
00:45:32,679 --> 00:45:38,079
I am. I had Todz Bradley on Saturday against the Twins,

905
00:45:38,079 --> 00:45:41,559
Brian Leonard. He pitched great, he got a big strikeout,

906
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:43,960
and then Kevin Cash took him out of this game

907
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:48,159
because his TI eighty nine calculator told him to do so,

908
00:45:48,599 --> 00:45:50,840
and the game got blown up in my face. I

909
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:52,280
don't think he should have taken him out of the

910
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,840
game in that spot in lieu of a worst right

911
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:57,960
handed pitcher that he brought in to then give up

912
00:45:58,199 --> 00:46:00,360
the home run that let the Twins back.

913
00:46:00,119 --> 00:46:00,599
Speaker 1: In the game.

914
00:46:01,199 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 2: But he only went eighty eight pitches and I thought

915
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:06,159
he was pretty good. Todz Bradley's a guy that he's

916
00:46:06,159 --> 00:46:10,719
got upside in my opinion, whereas Walker Bueler, we know

917
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,480
what he can be, but he hasn't really shown it

918
00:46:13,559 --> 00:46:17,039
much this year. I lean toward the race here helped

919
00:46:17,039 --> 00:46:19,199
me get either get me to the window or get

920
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:20,039
me off of this game.

921
00:46:20,039 --> 00:46:20,280
Speaker 1: Brian.

922
00:46:21,159 --> 00:46:23,159
Speaker 3: Before we get to this game, I do want to

923
00:46:23,199 --> 00:46:26,599
bring something up over at wager talk with the All

924
00:46:26,599 --> 00:46:29,320
Star Game coming up. They did put up us nice special.

925
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,079
This is for all three of us, as well as

926
00:46:32,119 --> 00:46:35,360
anybody else that sells baseball at Wayger Talk. It's the

927
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:39,079
MLB Midseason Special for under three point fifty a day.

928
00:46:39,119 --> 00:46:41,360
You get all of our baseball through the World Series.

929
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,920
That's everything from now through the World Series. Your favorite handicapper.

930
00:46:45,639 --> 00:46:48,039
It's normally four hundred and seventy nine dollars. It's only

931
00:46:48,079 --> 00:46:51,280
three hundred and forty nine dollars right now. So if

932
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:53,800
you're in with us for the rest of the baseball season,

933
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:55,679
this'd be a great way to get it from any

934
00:46:55,679 --> 00:46:57,599
of us, as well as any of the handicappers on

935
00:46:57,639 --> 00:47:00,639
the site. We talked about another guy, Yes, that's been

936
00:47:00,639 --> 00:47:02,159
on the hot run. If you'd like to get him,

937
00:47:02,519 --> 00:47:07,360
you can get that one also here on this special. Yeah,

938
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:09,280
Tampa Bay one of the ones that I was taking

939
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:13,000
a look at today. Also Taz Bradley going. We've got

940
00:47:13,039 --> 00:47:17,559
a line right now of basically Boston minus one eight

941
00:47:17,679 --> 00:47:21,360
one nine against Tampa, Bradley and Bueller. I don't I

942
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:23,039
don't want anything to do with Bueller. We'll get to

943
00:47:23,039 --> 00:47:26,360
that in a second. You mentioned pulling Bradley early. They've

944
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:30,800
always had that problem with their pictures, especially Bradley. In

945
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,960
that regard, this guy comes out with a four point

946
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,519
seven to nine e RA three point sixty five expected,

947
00:47:37,199 --> 00:47:40,320
So better things on the horizon for tage one point

948
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,559
three to zero whip, strike out minus walk ratio eleven

949
00:47:43,639 --> 00:47:48,119
point four. Not the greatest, uh. Keep in mind, these

950
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:52,119
Tampa Bay pitchers are coming from a very good pitching

951
00:47:52,159 --> 00:47:55,719
situation inside the Dome. They don't have that this year,

952
00:47:56,039 --> 00:47:58,400
so all of their numbers are going to be higher

953
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,079
than what they were last year as the season goes on.

954
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:06,159
Very good barrel rate eighty second percentile, fastball velocity eightieth percentile,

955
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:10,239
but he doesn't get a lot of whiffs twenty six percentile. Still,

956
00:48:11,039 --> 00:48:13,840
he's a hell of a lot better than Walker Buehler

957
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,920
is right now. First of all, his name is Walker,

958
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:22,280
and that's for TB. He walks nine point four percent

959
00:48:22,599 --> 00:48:25,199
on the walk rate, which is one percentage higher than

960
00:48:25,199 --> 00:48:29,840
Major League Baseball ERA six point three five expected ERA

961
00:48:30,039 --> 00:48:34,159
five point one two. Yes, some positive aggression coming his way,

962
00:48:34,559 --> 00:48:36,639
but with a one point five eight whip you really

963
00:48:36,679 --> 00:48:39,679
need to worry about that. I don't think he's a

964
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:41,960
very good pitcher. Last year he had a five point

965
00:48:42,039 --> 00:48:45,519
three eighty RA and he was very good in just

966
00:48:45,559 --> 00:48:47,719
a few innings in the playoffs, and then he gets

967
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:51,039
signed to a big contract. This is why management loses

968
00:48:51,079 --> 00:48:54,639
their jobs, and that's what could happen in Boston with

969
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,719
some of the things that they have done lately. He's

970
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:02,679
eleventh percent tile expected fourteenth and with right fifteen expected

971
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,840
batting average. I don't want Bueler, So it's either you

972
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:09,039
take Tampa Bay or you take nothing, and I prefer

973
00:49:09,119 --> 00:49:11,039
the Tampa Bay side. I was just hoping to get

974
00:49:11,079 --> 00:49:14,280
a little bit better right now because this Boston team

975
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:17,000
is hitting the ball much better than they were. Like,

976
00:49:17,079 --> 00:49:17,559
where you go?

977
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:21,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, in this game.

978
00:49:23,519 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 4: I'm focusing on Buehler here because he is a chronic walker,

979
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:32,519
as we've said many many times, and he's appropriately named walker.

980
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:37,280
His parents gave him the right name. How often does

981
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:41,000
he walk? Well, let's take a look. In the first

982
00:49:41,159 --> 00:49:44,480
for the season, he's walking four guys per nine, but

983
00:49:44,599 --> 00:49:47,320
in the last thirty days he's walking five point seventy

984
00:49:47,599 --> 00:49:51,199
nine guys per nine. So I like to compare that

985
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:55,679
with the team that they're playing. So how often do

986
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:59,519
the Rays walk? They're only walking about two times per nine.

987
00:50:00,119 --> 00:50:02,840
They have a low walk rate. Which means they're they're

988
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:04,800
not really taking a lot of walks according to my

989
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:10,360
numbers and so his But still Walker, Bueller is just

990
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:11,440
a walk machine.

991
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 5: When I checked DraftKings, the walks was.

992
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 4: Only they were only giving out over In other words,

993
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,119
they were only doing the plus one or plus two walks.

994
00:50:21,119 --> 00:50:23,559
They didn't have the over unders yet, So wait for

995
00:50:23,599 --> 00:50:28,360
the over unders to come out and take a Bueller over. Actually,

996
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,159
since they have the two plus is the same thing

997
00:50:31,159 --> 00:50:32,679
as over one and a half, so you could take

998
00:50:32,679 --> 00:50:34,519
a two plus for him. It's probably going to be

999
00:50:34,559 --> 00:50:38,360
heavily juiced, though, because the books also know that Walker

1000
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:40,880
is a chronic walker, that would probably be the only

1001
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:42,840
way I would go. I would really like to take

1002
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:46,760
Tampa Bay in this one, but Boston's bats are so hot,

1003
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,239
and as Brian pointed out before we came on air,

1004
00:50:49,599 --> 00:50:52,599
as soon as I trashed someone like the Brewers or

1005
00:50:53,199 --> 00:50:55,840
what was his name, Corey Steeker or someone like that,

1006
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:58,679
they get hot. Well, Brian, Brian, I'm going to give

1007
00:50:58,679 --> 00:51:01,159
it back to you. You trashed your Hida yesterday and

1008
00:51:01,199 --> 00:51:03,960
he had a great game, so it goes two ways.

1009
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:08,119
My friend da Yoshida is I think he's a difference

1010
00:51:08,119 --> 00:51:09,920
maker in that line. I know both of you guys

1011
00:51:10,159 --> 00:51:11,920
say you don't think he is. I think he will be.

1012
00:51:12,079 --> 00:51:15,159
I think I think he can. He can fill the

1013
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:16,119
the the Dever's gap.

1014
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:18,719
Speaker 5: I think I think he can. We'll see.

1015
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:22,280
Speaker 3: He can fuel it as well. As Devers has been

1016
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:23,960
playing in San Francisco right now.

1017
00:51:27,079 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, he got a little cold.

1018
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, the Red Sox had been hitting, but look

1019
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:37,000
who they'd been hitting. They had the Gnats for three,

1020
00:51:37,039 --> 00:51:40,920
who have very little bullpen depth. So no, no, not

1021
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,599
totally surprising that they were able to score a bunch

1022
00:51:43,599 --> 00:51:45,599
of runs in that series. And then they had the

1023
00:51:45,679 --> 00:51:49,559
Rockies at home, who are are truly as close to

1024
00:51:49,639 --> 00:51:53,719
a Triple A team that I can ever remember over

1025
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:55,960
the course of the season in Major League Baseball. Like

1026
00:51:56,239 --> 00:51:58,920
we will jokingly say that sometimes, oh, this is a

1027
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:02,599
Triple A team, and usually that's that's not you know,

1028
00:52:02,639 --> 00:52:06,239
that's a little bit far fetched. The Rockies, this year's

1029
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:10,440
Rockies are it is a literal team that you would

1030
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:13,719
expect to see at Triple A, almost top to bottom,

1031
00:52:14,119 --> 00:52:18,079
Like it's almost entirely made up of guys that either

1032
00:52:18,159 --> 00:52:20,599
could or should be at Triple A. So I gotta

1033
00:52:20,679 --> 00:52:22,559
I gotta pump the brakes on being like, oh, the

1034
00:52:22,599 --> 00:52:25,519
Red Sox are just like so hot. Well, yeah, against

1035
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:28,480
the pitchers they faced the last week, probably should be

1036
00:52:28,519 --> 00:52:31,079
putting up a little bit of offense, Todz. Bradley could

1037
00:52:31,119 --> 00:52:33,440
quiet them down, quiet these bats a little bit, because

1038
00:52:34,039 --> 00:52:37,239
again he has upside in my opinion, he throws ninety

1039
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:39,639
you know, he sits at like ninety seven on his fastball,

1040
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,360
throws it at about fifty percent of the time. But

1041
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:45,440
I do like the way he mixes his other stuff

1042
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:47,599
in off of that basketball, So I don't think his

1043
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:50,119
fastball is like elite by any means in terms of

1044
00:52:50,199 --> 00:52:52,480
like he's not gonna blow You're not blowing guys away

1045
00:52:52,519 --> 00:52:55,079
with ninety seven at the big league level anymore. But

1046
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:58,519
he's he's throwing the other stuff effectively enough off of

1047
00:52:58,559 --> 00:53:01,519
it where you know, he had, like i'll go back

1048
00:53:01,519 --> 00:53:04,719
to his start last Saturday, got in trouble in one inning.

1049
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:07,079
He's probably he's probably going to get himself into trouble

1050
00:53:07,079 --> 00:53:09,400
at least once, and if you can work around the

1051
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:13,199
big inning, he tends to be pretty good. Tokyo, Brandon,

1052
00:53:13,199 --> 00:53:16,880
you talked about the walks with Buehler. You can't walk

1053
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:19,719
the Rays. That's the one thing. You cannot put these

1054
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,960
dudes on base for free like because that's where the

1055
00:53:23,119 --> 00:53:23,719
Rays thrive.

1056
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:26,519
Speaker 1: That's why, that's why the Rays are like Tigers two.

1057
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 2: Point zero in a lot of cases where if you

1058
00:53:28,639 --> 00:53:31,920
give them free base runners, they will one thousand percent

1059
00:53:32,039 --> 00:53:33,960
find a way to make you pay. It is the

1060
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:36,559
reason the Rays are what they are this year. This

1061
00:53:36,639 --> 00:53:39,280
collection of players should not be Brian Leonard, do you

1062
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,679
have the standings right there? What are the Rays come

1063
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,559
into They're how many games over five hundred? Let me

1064
00:53:44,599 --> 00:53:45,719
see if I can get that quick.

1065
00:53:46,199 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 3: They are seven games over five hundred rights and plus

1066
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:50,639
sixty seven run differential.

1067
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:53,639
Speaker 2: This team has no business being fifty and forty three

1068
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:57,000
with this collection of players, but they are because when

1069
00:53:57,000 --> 00:54:00,119
they get on base, they they can steal. They on

1070
00:54:00,159 --> 00:54:02,519
at the right times, they go first to third, well,

1071
00:54:02,559 --> 00:54:05,719
they take the extra base. They constantly put constant pressure

1072
00:54:06,079 --> 00:54:09,119
on a team's defense to make a play. And it's

1073
00:54:09,199 --> 00:54:11,880
those are the types of things that I think the

1074
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:14,679
Red Sox maybe still lack in that department a little bit.

1075
00:54:15,559 --> 00:54:17,599
I think if you put pressure on their defense, they'll

1076
00:54:17,599 --> 00:54:19,920
they'll give you a run here and there, and if

1077
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,000
you give, if you're giving the raise base runners, you

1078
00:54:22,079 --> 00:54:24,159
just can't do it. And so for that reason, the

1079
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:26,039
Rays are going to be my parlay leg What what's

1080
00:54:26,079 --> 00:54:30,519
the money line there, Brian, I know they were taking

1081
00:54:30,559 --> 00:54:31,719
a little bit of money earlier.

1082
00:54:32,039 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's about minus minus one oh four.

1083
00:54:37,039 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 1: Maybe we'll call it minus one oh five.

1084
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:44,199
Speaker 2: I think again, I just think that the scrappiness of

1085
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:46,239
this team, and then you get the Red Sox sort

1086
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:48,760
of there's sort of been on cruise control over the

1087
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:51,880
last week playing teams that it's like, you know, I

1088
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:55,199
didn't even think they played their best ball at times

1089
00:54:55,199 --> 00:54:57,280
in that Rocky series, but the Rockies are just so

1090
00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:01,199
horrifically bad. They're throwing guys like sends a ten, Like uh,

1091
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:04,679
who was Freeland pitched the other day?

1092
00:55:05,159 --> 00:55:09,559
Speaker 1: Gomber? These are Albuquerque starters, not not big league starters.

1093
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:12,719
Speaker 2: In my opinion at this point, Bradley's a step up

1094
00:55:13,079 --> 00:55:15,519
raise are are a team that means business right now.

1095
00:55:15,559 --> 00:55:18,400
I think the Rays get them here and end this

1096
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:22,239
winning streak. I don't know what is that's insane. I

1097
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:24,599
don't know what he meant by that, But.

1098
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:27,599
Speaker 4: If you go to his comment up here, he's saying

1099
00:55:27,679 --> 00:55:30,719
that the rays have the rays are actually good and

1100
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:32,000
should have that record.

1101
00:55:32,119 --> 00:55:34,559
Speaker 2: No, no, no, that's that. That's true. Like Cam and Arrow's

1102
00:55:34,559 --> 00:55:38,239
a stud. Uh around is having a great year low

1103
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,280
at a twenty game hit streak that I I gotta

1104
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:41,519
be honest, I missed that.

1105
00:55:41,599 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 1: I didn't.

1106
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:44,960
Speaker 2: I didn't know about that hit streak until hit number nineteen,

1107
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:47,159
and then I was like, like that was like the

1108
00:55:47,199 --> 00:55:48,719
best kept secret in sports.

1109
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:51,119
Speaker 1: The fact that that dude at a twenty game hitting streak.

1110
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:52,480
It's another bay.

1111
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 3: I mean, nobody knows anything about that.

1112
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:59,039
Speaker 4: So if they were Yankees famers, that's right, that's right.

1113
00:55:59,639 --> 00:56:02,440
Speaker 2: Chandler Simpson, get that guy on base and try to

1114
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:06,360
deal with him. It's I may talk myself into to

1115
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:07,679
the race for clients.

1116
00:56:07,679 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 1: I'm certainly on it. In the parlay, which means.

1117
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:13,119
Speaker 2: We go to we go to uh, we're going to

1118
00:56:13,119 --> 00:56:16,480
Tokyo brand and we got six four minutes of show left.

1119
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:19,800
I saw the people caught the TI eighty nine calculator

1120
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:21,679
reference right there. That was a big deal.

1121
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:23,800
Speaker 1: When I was in high school, everyone had a hat

1122
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:26,880
that stupid graphic calculator. I got a real quick story.

1123
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:27,679
That's very funny.

1124
00:56:27,719 --> 00:56:30,079
Speaker 2: Like in high school, we used to try to play

1125
00:56:30,159 --> 00:56:32,480
dice in the hallway and the teachers were like, yeah,

1126
00:56:32,519 --> 00:56:35,199
you can't do that. Like we were like rolling dice

1127
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:37,679
and like gambling on it in the hallway at school, and.

1128
00:56:37,639 --> 00:56:39,280
Speaker 5: They were like, yeah, in the hallway.

1129
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,559
Speaker 1: They were like, you know, you can't play that that

1130
00:56:41,639 --> 00:56:44,239
game in the hallway, Like that's gambling. We're not gonna

1131
00:56:44,320 --> 00:56:44,599
do that.

1132
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 2: So we programmed the TI eighty nine calculator to have

1133
00:56:48,079 --> 00:56:50,920
six equally weighted dice, and then we played dice on

1134
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:53,719
the calculator in study hall and they eventually figured that

1135
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:56,000
out too, and they shut that that down. But for

1136
00:56:56,039 --> 00:56:58,559
a while we had a really good dice game going

1137
00:56:58,559 --> 00:57:00,639
that the teachers didn't know about because we were doing

1138
00:57:00,679 --> 00:57:03,039
it on the calculator. They thought we were doing work.

1139
00:57:03,079 --> 00:57:05,840
So that's my t I eighty nine grapping calculator story.

1140
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:08,480
Calculator story. If you're in like your mid thirties or

1141
00:57:08,559 --> 00:57:10,800
mid forties, you'll totally get that.

1142
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:12,880
Speaker 1: Reference. That was life when you.

1143
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:15,840
Speaker 2: Were in high school back in the early two thousands.

1144
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:19,320
All right, Tokyo Brandon, Yeah, we have two parlay legs

1145
00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:19,679
locked in.

1146
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:22,199
Speaker 1: We need a third. What game are you looking at?

1147
00:57:22,519 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 4: May may I do a strikeout prop for the parlay leg?

1148
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:26,880
Speaker 5: Is that okay or not?

1149
00:57:27,559 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 1: It's fine if you can't listen.

1150
00:57:29,079 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 2: If people can't get the strikeout prop in the parlay,

1151
00:57:31,559 --> 00:57:34,480
I think it's a reasonable two teamer today with Raisin Nats.

1152
00:57:34,639 --> 00:57:37,719
Neither are big odds, So go for it. Put whatever

1153
00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:38,519
leg you want the part.

1154
00:57:38,639 --> 00:57:39,039
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1155
00:57:39,079 --> 00:57:41,440
Speaker 4: Frankly, I don't see a lot that I like as

1156
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:44,000
far as sides and totals today, so I think a

1157
00:57:44,039 --> 00:57:47,239
strikeout prop is the best way to go. And I'm

1158
00:57:47,280 --> 00:57:51,079
going to go to the Diamondbacks game against the Padres.

1159
00:57:51,239 --> 00:57:54,280
Eduardo Rodriguez is striking out ten and a half guys

1160
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:57,639
per nine, and he's a guy that the books don't like,

1161
00:57:58,559 --> 00:58:01,639
just like the Washington Nationals don't like. His strikeout prop

1162
00:58:01,679 --> 00:58:03,559
today is four and a half. I think that's insane.

1163
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:08,039
I haven't projected it five to two, and if you

1164
00:58:08,079 --> 00:58:11,480
look at his numbers against this team, he's he's he's

1165
00:58:11,519 --> 00:58:14,039
striking out four point eight per start, which is a

1166
00:58:14,039 --> 00:58:15,920
little I would like it to be higher than that

1167
00:58:16,039 --> 00:58:18,400
to make this play, but it's not going to be

1168
00:58:19,199 --> 00:58:22,920
a huge, you know, a huge percent play. But I

1169
00:58:23,039 --> 00:58:25,440
think I think he's going to get five strikeouts against

1170
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:29,039
the Padres today, so I project him it at five to two.

1171
00:58:29,519 --> 00:58:32,400
So my leg is going to be Eduardo Rodriguez over

1172
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:33,679
four and a half strikeouts?

1173
00:58:34,039 --> 00:58:35,119
Speaker 3: What the line you got on?

1174
00:58:35,159 --> 00:58:41,079
Speaker 4: That the line I got on it was plus one hundred?

1175
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:44,119
Speaker 3: Now do you know it was?

1176
00:58:44,239 --> 00:58:46,159
Speaker 4: It was plus one hundred an hour ago?

1177
00:58:48,239 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 1: Is that what you over four and a half strikeouts

1178
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:52,440
for EDWARDO Rodrigez?

1179
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:56,119
Speaker 4: Yes, it was plus one hundred and it looks like

1180
00:58:56,199 --> 00:58:59,599
people in the chat are seeing plus one hundred as well.

1181
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:02,519
Speaker 1: All right, we'll call it. That's fine, we can call

1182
00:59:02,559 --> 00:59:03,239
it even money.

1183
00:59:03,599 --> 00:59:06,199
Speaker 5: You can tell because it's probably dropped.

1184
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,440
Speaker 2: So I have some comments on this game. So I

1185
00:59:09,519 --> 00:59:11,480
want to finish the show talking about this game. I'll

1186
00:59:11,559 --> 00:59:14,639
I'll go to Brian Leonard first, anything d Backs Padres

1187
00:59:14,679 --> 00:59:14,960
for you?

1188
00:59:15,119 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 3: No, you can go ahead?

1189
00:59:17,239 --> 00:59:19,239
Speaker 2: So what I really the only thing I was going

1190
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:22,119
to say here, I was going to throw out the

1191
00:59:22,159 --> 00:59:26,119
alternative if you cannot bet the strikeout prop, I think

1192
00:59:26,119 --> 00:59:29,280
the Diamondbacks is worth a look in this game. So

1193
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:31,519
if you really want a three teamer, I think you

1194
00:59:31,559 --> 00:59:34,559
know you could use d Backs either first five money

1195
00:59:34,559 --> 00:59:36,960
line or full game money line, and then just blame

1196
00:59:37,039 --> 00:59:39,880
me if the parlay wins but your parlay loses, I'll

1197
00:59:40,000 --> 00:59:43,079
I'll take the blame there. I'm confident enough going against

1198
00:59:43,159 --> 00:59:46,239
Randy Vasquez that I think the Diamondbacks is a decent

1199
00:59:46,599 --> 00:59:49,920
is a decent bet so Tokyo. Brandon is betting the

1200
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:52,559
d Backs in some fashion, right he thinks Rodriguez is

1201
00:59:52,559 --> 00:59:54,599
going to have a good game. If Rodriguez is racking

1202
00:59:54,679 --> 00:59:57,239
up the strikeouts, chances are Arizona is in a pretty

1203
00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:59,239
good position to win here. If you want to cut

1204
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:01,880
their bullpen out, maybe a Diamondbacks first five.

1205
01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:03,599
Speaker 1: I feel like you're kind of betting on the same

1206
01:00:03,639 --> 01:00:04,280
thing right there.

1207
01:00:04,719 --> 01:00:08,559
Speaker 2: That yeah, and again for our parlay, we're gonna go

1208
01:00:08,599 --> 01:00:12,320
with Rodriguez over four and a half strikeouts. That's what

1209
01:00:12,360 --> 01:00:15,199
we're gonna grade it on. But Diamondbacks was a play

1210
01:00:15,199 --> 01:00:18,280
that was sort of on my radar for today, and

1211
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:21,599
for me, it's just the willingness to fade Randy Vasquez

1212
01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:26,480
with that Diamondbacks lineup. I'm not the biggest Rodriguez guy,

1213
01:00:26,559 --> 01:00:29,039
but again, I think he can do enough here where

1214
01:00:29,199 --> 01:00:31,800
the offense might be able to do the work. I've

1215
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:34,480
been watching Randy Vasquez for weeks. I don't know how

1216
01:00:34,519 --> 01:00:36,760
he constantly wiggles out of it. This guy should be

1217
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:39,199
getting lit up at the big league level. He's gonna

1218
01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:41,639
at some point. And this is a plot.

1219
01:00:41,719 --> 01:00:44,679
Speaker 1: You know, for the the issues that the Diamondbacks have

1220
01:00:44,679 --> 01:00:47,119
had this year, it has not extended to this lineup,

1221
01:00:47,159 --> 01:00:49,400
which is very good. And I could see them putting

1222
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:51,119
a crooked number on Vasquez.

1223
01:00:51,159 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 2: So I like the Diamondbacks, but for the parlay, we

1224
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:57,800
are going to go with Rodriguez ed Ward Rodriguez over

1225
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:02,440
four and a half strikeouts. It's raised minus one five

1226
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:04,920
for the full game. And then we've got what was

1227
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:07,239
that line on the Nationals. I didn't write it down.

1228
01:01:07,320 --> 01:01:08,280
What you get from.

1229
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:11,920
Speaker 1: Plus one twenty three?

1230
01:01:12,239 --> 01:01:14,519
Speaker 4: All right, it's gonna be a nice price today.

1231
01:01:15,599 --> 01:01:19,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, we we we need one parlay.

1232
01:01:20,199 --> 01:01:20,679
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1233
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:23,199
Speaker 2: So again, we're still gonna go into the All Star

1234
01:01:23,239 --> 01:01:25,519
Break ahead on these. But right now we are up

1235
01:01:25,719 --> 01:01:28,800
seven point nine units on the parlay. All I'm basing

1236
01:01:28,800 --> 01:01:30,960
that off of is like one dollar. For every one

1237
01:01:31,000 --> 01:01:33,679
dollar you've placed on these, you should be up seven

1238
01:01:33,719 --> 01:01:36,280
dollars and ninety cents, assuming you played them all equally.

1239
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:39,199
Not where we were at one point on the year,

1240
01:01:39,239 --> 01:01:41,840
but that's still I mean, that's still pretty good. The

1241
01:01:41,880 --> 01:01:44,800
fact that we've been doing them daily for over two

1242
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:46,440
months and we're still ahead.

1243
01:01:46,519 --> 01:01:46,800
Speaker 1: Coming.

1244
01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:50,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rich Milkins, that's my guy, Rich. I see him

1245
01:01:50,960 --> 01:01:53,000
at Turning Stone every once in a while. Appreciate you

1246
01:01:53,039 --> 01:01:53,440
tuning in.

1247
01:01:53,559 --> 01:01:55,800
Speaker 1: Rich. Always love running into you down at the casino.

1248
01:01:56,119 --> 01:01:58,920
Speaker 2: He says, plus eight fifty nine with that parlay boost

1249
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:02,079
that DraftKings love that we will grade this plus seven

1250
01:02:02,079 --> 01:02:02,599
to seventy.

1251
01:02:03,239 --> 01:02:04,159
Speaker 1: This would be a nice one.

1252
01:02:04,400 --> 01:02:06,639
Speaker 2: I don't think we've had a seven a seven to

1253
01:02:06,679 --> 01:02:10,239
one parlay in a while. That's gonna be raised money line,

1254
01:02:10,639 --> 01:02:13,039
NAT's money line. And then over four and a half

1255
01:02:13,079 --> 01:02:19,519
strikeouts for Edward Rodriguez. Hopefully today is the day. And yeah,

1256
01:02:19,679 --> 01:02:22,920
regardless win or lose, we will be back tomorrow. Final

1257
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:26,480
show for a week. So we'll be back tomorrow nine am.

1258
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:29,079
It's our last show until the following Friday, because of

1259
01:02:29,119 --> 01:02:31,519
course we are hitting the All Star break. So hope

1260
01:02:31,559 --> 01:02:34,239
all you guys join us, see you at nine am tomorrow.

1261
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:37,119
Speaker 1: Good luck. Cash all your tickets today and we'll talk

1262
01:02:37,119 --> 01:02:37,559
to you later.