Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to tea time. It is the Windham Championship.
I am your host, Andy Lang, being joined as always
by my fellow golf betting expert Nick Borman. We're gonna
break down the course. We're gonna give you some outright winners,
some underdogs, some players that can trip you up, and
of course some draft kings darlings.
Speaker 2: Welcome Nick.
Speaker 1: The playoffs is right around the corner where the points
now mean nothing except if you're on the bubble.
Speaker 2: So as always, we start with.
Speaker 1: Our one and done. You are pulling out to a
big lead. I've had a slew of golfers that missed
the cut or play terrible, so let's get back on track.
I'm gonna go with Jake Knapp as my one and done.
Speaker 2: He's just been playing.
Speaker 1: Really really well recently, so I'm gonna depend on current
form here. You look at his recent finishes and he
got third last week, took the week off more than
twenty second twenty first fourth, So it's a guy that's.
Speaker 2: Just playing really well.
Speaker 1: You look at his player stats for the year, they're okay,
but boy, you look over the last like five to
six weeks, he's playing really, really good. Golf, So I'm
gonna use Jake Napp as my one and done.
Speaker 3: Who are you going with Harry Hall? For the record,
I do love Jake Napp as well.
Speaker 4: Another good week last week for him, but Harry Halls.
So I'm looking at Andy. I mean just been riding
the Hall train. Honestly for like the last month. It
feels like he just continues to play very well. He delivers.
Speaker 3: His worst start over that stretch was actually his last start.
It was a tie for twenty eight.
Speaker 4: That was his worst so prior to that seventh s
raight top twenty fives. He's not really anything special off
the tee or on approach, but putting short game ridiculous.
He actually ranks first Andy and putting in this field
in each of the last twelve months, six months and
three months, so putting is no fluke with Harry and
he's number one on tour. At a Scott he had
everybody else in birdie average for a round four point
five to one and another shootout you're gonna have to
make a lot of berdie So I think Carry Hall's
gonna have another good week. I think he'll be easily
in that top twenty area. So I hope you get
a little higher obviously for the one and done it
maybe top five, whatever, but I think he's gonna have
another good week. So I'm on Harry Hall this week.
Speaker 1: Nine straight top forty cashes and I'll just casually throw
up that he's minus one forty again.
Speaker 2: Just to finish top forty in.
Speaker 3: A week weeks field, that's beautiful.
Speaker 1: You know, it's just the gift that keeps on giving.
Speaker 2: Cutting.
Speaker 1: Now, listen, it's a good thing he's good at putting,
because I don't think there's anybody that takes.
Speaker 2: Longer than him.
Speaker 1: But you can't argue with the results. It's absolutely been working, been.
Speaker 4: Working, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1: So as always we take a look at total strokes
gained in this field. I'm sure Harry Hall is going
to make an appearance on this one.
Speaker 2: So let's take a look at the chart. We look
at the last twelve.
Speaker 1: Months, six months and three months. Obviously it's not gonna
be like a major where we have all these big
time names, but there are a few big names playing
this week. You got Keegan Bradley, You've got Matthew Fitzpatrick,
who has to be in the notables. He's on fire.
So there's a couple of big names. Robert McIntyre's on there.
Interesting takeaways from this from this chart walked us through
it this week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely much better names than we saw last week.
You know, the big takeaways is you got a guy
like Hideki Matziama who leads over the last twelve months.
Remember he won the was the very first and under
the year of the century and then won something maybe
it was in the fall fire that there was two
wins in this twelve month stretch for him, So you
know that's inflated.
Speaker 3: We know he's not playing nearly as well.
Speaker 4: Then you got, of course, to Captain Keegan who coming
off a win recently playing towards that Ryder Cup. I'm
surprised he's actually playing this week, knowing that you got
three playoff weeks.
Speaker 3: I don't.
Speaker 4: I didn't expect to see him here, but he's in
the field. Ben Griffin's in an interesting one. I mean,
who was hotter than Ben Griffin for six weeks? Right,
but not a great open, not a great stretch over
in in in Europe, and did the did the did
the allure, did the Sweetheart package? Run run run, you
know the run expired on him, I'm.
Speaker 3: Not really sure.
Speaker 4: So he looks great in the short term three months,
you can see that, but in a shorter window, which
is not here, in a month or six weeks, it's
dropped off quite a bit, So I'm not really sure if.
Speaker 3: He's, you know, ready to just bounce right back.
Speaker 4: But Harry Hall, as you mentioned, yet right there, number five,
playing his best golf as of late, and you can
see that in the in the Strokes Game last three
months graphic.
Speaker 3: A couple of the names on there worth talking about.
Speaker 4: Jordan Spieth making an appearance there, you know, again playing
very steadily. He missed several weeks with injury, came back
for the Open, was respectable there for you, if I think,
but steady as it goes, even though he's one of
those fun golfers to watch. Aaron Raye defending champ on
the list. But really have we talked about him much recently?
Speaker 3: I don't, I feel like.
Speaker 4: Leading into last year and when he won this we
were talking about him quite a bit every week, but
he kind of hasn't had that same play as of late.
Speaker 3: But then you mentioned the guys who are the hottest
right now.
Speaker 4: Fitzpatrick, He's just off the top ten, so he's in
the notables section, but he is number one here over
the last three months. And then Jake Knapp and Nikolai
ho Hoyguard I have that transposed with his name, but Nikolai.
Speaker 3: Horgard two other guys playing very very well.
Speaker 4: And right now, I've just in these type of events
you tend to see on the bigger events, what I've
noticed is the twelve month plays out a little bit
better those rankings. It's your best players in the world,
and they're better for longer periods of time. But in
these lighter fields, I've been having more success with some
of the three month surges. For some of these guys,
they're playing very well in the moment, they have a
weaker field they're going up against and they're just playing
better than everybody in that field, and they tend to
do pretty well. So just throwing it out there that
I would pay a little bit more attention to the
shorter term going into this week, and that is that
right hand Column's my takeaway going into the last regular
season event here of the year. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, It's just so funny to hear you say the
word steady and Jordan Speith.
Speaker 4: Well, I had a strop there that that wasn't supposed
to happen in the same.
Speaker 2: Yeah, happens to all of us.
Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting chart this week, so some of it, you know,
these events, sometimes we have some really big long shots.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to see if we have another
long shot or if some of these guys on that
chart come out ahead. So if you guys could hit
the like button. Uh and Leavis comment, tell us who
you like this week? If you like somebody off that chart,
somebody not off the chart. But real quick, Nick, we
got to talk a little bit of soccer. Soccer season
is starting, you know this week, and I know you
have a special up for League's Cup. Tell us about
that real quick before we get into the course breakdown.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: League's Cup literally just kicked off last night, so Tuesday night.
So it is the World Cup style format tournament MLS
versus Lega MX.
Speaker 3: All the teams from leebag X playing. Most of the
teams were over the last.
Speaker 4: But very fun event. It goes on for a month.
It actually runs through August thirty first, So I have
a package up for ninety nine bucks. It'll get you
every play of that Urnam MLS is of course my
bread and butter, so that includes all these MLS teams
on the second half of the package. The group stage
is the first kind of two weeks, and then once
that the knockout rounds happened, the MLS starts back up again,
so then it'll be regular MLS plays on top of
the league's Cup. Plus Andy Premier League kicks off mid August,
and this package is including include that as well. So
all soccer, including league Scout, MLS and the beginning of
the Premier League season all going to be includer in
this for the next thirty.
Speaker 3: Two ish days.
Speaker 4: So August thirty first is the last day of the package.
But nine to nine bucks available right now on my
page at LEAUP.
Speaker 2: Awesome stuff.
Speaker 1: Yeah, soccer really really good source of profits. Let's break
down the course. We're going to Sedgefield Country Club and
there's really not.
Speaker 2: Much to this course.
Speaker 1: It's going to be the second easiest par seventy that
they play, at least that's what history tells us. Seventy
one hundred yards. Just just be accurate off the tee
and you're gonna leave yourself plenty of birdy opportunities only
a couple of par fives. Obviously, that's why it's the
par seventy. But to me, this just kind of comes
down to really good putting. I don't think guys are
gonna have trouble with these greens. The greens are pretty
good size, not a lot of hazards here. It is
notable that front nine typically plays a lot easier than
the back nine. So you guys need to get off
to good starts here. And I'll bring up the weather.
As of now, Thursday and Friday, Cakewalk weekend, there's gonna
be twenty twenty five mile an hour winds, So you're
gonna see some low scores Thursday and Friday on the weekend.
Maybe not so much. Maybe that brings a little bit
of drama into this course. I'll do the eighteenth hole
rating real quick, Nick, and then i'll get your thoughts
on this eighteenth hole rating. It's a four point one.
There's really nothing to this the members that it plays
as a par five. These guys are gonna play it
as a five hundred yard par four. The only thing
that can be a little tricky is you hit your
t shot in the fair way and it's probably gonna
be a little bit of a downhill lie. There's four
bunkers surrounding the green, but the green is pretty big,
should be really receptive. The only thing that's going to
make this difficult is the winds on Saturday and Sunday.
It's basically your typical par type of hole, so in
order to birdy it, you're probably gonna have to hit
a decent size putt. Bogies is just going to be
spray the ball off the tee or you flub it
out of the bunker. But really not much to this one,
doesn't have a lot of teeth, not very dramatic. So
four point one for the rating on this one. What's
your take on Sedgefield.
Speaker 4: It's kind of rinse and repeat of what we saw
last week. You know, aside from the weather, it's the
winning scores basically fall between eighteen and twenty two under.
In the last like eight years. There was one anomaly
where it was only fifteen under, but aside from that,
you're getting up close to twenty under pretty much every year. Again,
very similar last week. We'll probably see some some sixty
two sixty threes. Kiddyama shot sixty last week. I don't
know if we'll get there, but it'll be pretty pretty close.
We always talk about the field too in these events.
You know, one hundred and fifty six in the field.
This is just the movement group, right, the group that
needs to kind of get in or maybe maybe even
the guys that are on the bubble of like the
top fifty or top thirty to qualify for that second
and third event. But every golfer andy that's ranked sixtieth
to one hundred and nine in the FedEx Cup standings
is in this field clearly.
Speaker 3: In yeah, who's trying to make it right.
Speaker 4: And that's always an angle you can look at as
guys that are on that bubble and looking for make
the cut. Parlays on those type of guys because trust me,
they are going to be grinding over every shot like
it's like it's Master Sunday.
Speaker 3: So it doesn't always pan out.
Speaker 4: Of course, you got to be careful with it, but
it is an angle certainly to pay attention to this
week more so than just looking at, you know, the
outright winner or a top ten market is you know
who needs to make points and who needs to make
a cut. You know, aside from that, I looked I
did this last week that you know who wins this
type of event. You know, it's it's obviously gonna be
a hot putter because you're gonna have to go low.
But once again the best ball striker has proved we're
going to be the solid recipe in the tournament's history.
So last year, Aaron Rye Winter, he ranked first for
the week strokes gain Teagreen twenty twenty three, Lucas Glover first,
TA Green twenty two, Tom Kim first putting. All right,
then you got Kisner Herman. They were both in the
top ten, both Tea Green and putting nineteen posting first
tee de Green, Fran Seneca second Tea Green.
Speaker 3: I think you get the point.
Speaker 4: You got to get that, guys, if you're looking for
the winners, the guy that's going to be the best
Tea Green. And again I think what has shown more
recently this year is it.
Speaker 3: Tends to be the player in the best form.
Speaker 4: And if you go back to just those last two years,
Aaron Rye he was hot coming into this tournament and
Lucas Glover same thing.
Speaker 3: His win was coming, and then he won the.
Speaker 4: Very first playoff event the week after so neither of
those guys were surprises, and they both showed in that
short term three month window strokes game data. So I
would look there. I would look for guys that are
just striking it better than anybody else in this field.
I mean, maybe they don't win because they don't make
enough putts, but I guarantee they're going to be in
that mix, in that top ten, top twenty. So that's
where I'm focusing my energy on the figure out who's
gonna win this event or at least place.
Speaker 1: Well, well, you mentioned ball striking, so let's go to
your favorite favorite, and then I'll do players that can
tribute up a nice little un'st little ying and the yang.
Speaker 2: So let's go to your favorite favorite.
Speaker 1: What's a guy that you think priced pretty high up
there it has the best shot to win.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna rinse and repeat. It's it's Jake Napping. Jake
Napping in for me. Yeah, you mentioned him earlier, the
one and Done. I previewed him as a favorite favorite
last week, Dan Producer, if you could just go ahead
just clip in last week's you know, breakdown.
Speaker 3: For me right here.
Speaker 4: I can just go to sleep for a second. But honestly,
it's it's everything I said. You know, last week I
was basically obviously finished. Typer third last week had a
very good chance to win. He probably does if not
for Kitty Yama having a career round on Saturday. But
before that, Typer twenty second is Scottish taper twenty first
at John Deere tie for fourth of the Rocket Classic.
He hits it a country mile that always helps. His
putter can get very hot. It's just these type of
events set up very well with him. In twenty one
starts the season, he's lost strokes putting just five times.
He ranks seven in this field and the strokes gained
hutting this season. I mentioned Harry Hall is my one
and done who ranks first, so Nap is not far behind,
and he's gonna have a lot of again your seventy
one hundred yards. If he's hitting driver, he's gonna have
a lot of short clubs in these greens, so he's
gonna have a pretty good advantage.
Speaker 3: So I like nappagain.
Speaker 4: He's forty to one once again this week Top ten
plus four to fifty or top twenty plus two to thirty.
Speaker 3: Both of those are easy cashes.
Speaker 4: And I like it beginning this week as well.
Speaker 1: All right, well, good start for me. When your favorite
favorite is my one and done, it's sitting pretty, sitting pretty.
Let's go to players that can trip you up. These
are some guys that I think are priced a little
bit too high, and I think they're overvalued. I think
people are going to play him. I'm gonna start with
someone you mentioned, Aaron Raie. I think he's getting priced
up on last year's win. His recent play has not
been that good. He has one top ten all season.
He hasn't cracked the top eighteens. Yeah, yeah, he was
coming down the stretch last year. He was money like
he was a DFS darling. He was a top forty machine,
like you could make all kinds of money on him.
Not the case hasn't cracked the top fifteen since mid
March twenty first, and total strokes gained in this field
over the last three months. That's not good putting. Glaring
weakness and on a course that you and I agree
that you gotta have a hot putter. Maybe it comes
around this week because he's familiar and you know, basking
in the glow of last year's win. But major red
flag when you haven't been putting well this year. So
at this price, I just think he's overvalued. Easy, easy
pass for Aaron Rye. You mentioned him again. Ben Griffin at.
Speaker 2: Golf is a fickle, fickle sport.
Speaker 1: Nick, you can be the hottest golfer on tour and
then you can miss two cuts in a row. Wheels
have completely come off, missed the cut his last two starts,
last thirty days, is putting minus zero point three run
total strokes gained. Yeah, despite the recent slop, he's priced
as like a top four guy, way too aggressive, way
too aggressive one, a guy that's missed two cuts in
a row. So there's a lot of top tier options
with better trends that I would rather bet on. So
at this number, Griffin is a fade. So I mean,
remember I mean Nick, he was like as hot as
Rory and Scottie there for like a month it was
like he was It was like who's the hottest golfer
on the plane? At Scottie Scheffler and then who Ben Griffin.
So he's just not going to be in any of
my lineups. So and then I have to mention Akha Batilla.
He comes in with pretty decent form, four straight made cuts,
but yet to crack the top twenty in that stretch,
and I got to bring up how awful he has
been at this tournament. Four times he's played here and
he's never made the cut, which is insane considering how
this isn't the us O Been.
Speaker 2: Type field or course. This is an easy course in
a weak fields.
Speaker 1: Have no idea why he struggles so bad here, but
despite the talent, course history, just bad form. I'm not
gonna be betting on Akshay Batilla here. So Aaron Ray,
Ben Griffin and Akshay Batilla are three players that I
think can trip you up. I have one best bet
that is posted for this week's tournament and I just
absolutely love it. Only had one play last week. Unfortunately
we didn't get there. Nick, if you would have told
me that Maverick McNeely missing the cut is going to
derail me, what are you gonna do? But we get
back on track. I love the play this week. Any
bets that we have throughout the tournament will be posted
with that. So I've never had a losing golf season
since being.
Speaker 2: At wager Talk. It's a streak.
Speaker 1: I'm very, very proud of and the play this week
is dynamite.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: So if you're interested in a golf Best bet winner,
go grab that WT dot Buzz slash al. All Right,
we mentioned some players that can trip you up. We
mentioned your favorite. Now let's dig a little bit of
deep here and let's talk an underdog that is kind
of really really well priced here. Who have you pegged
this a little bit of a long shot.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's not a one hundred to one by any means,
but a sixty to one a little bit longer than
we said. We talked about with Jake nap is Hoyguard.
I mentioned him in the breakdown of the strokes gained.
He is just playing very very well. I'm looking at
that short term window. Who's hot right now, who's got
the momentum? You know, he skipped last week, which I
do like, right, you get that extra week the West,
but back to backstrong starts across the Point. He had
the fourth type for fourth finished at the Scottish, then
a type of fourteenth at the Open. Before that was
a solid tip for twenty fourth at the Rocket. He
did struggle admittedly through the summer from basically March through
early June. He took some time off after the PGA Championship.
He played just one event over like a five week
six week stretch until that Rocket Classic, so clearly it
was working on stuff, you know, away from tournament competitive golf,
and at worked, whether it was his practice routeam changing something,
or just pure break He's come back roaring. He was
struggling mightily with his irons. He lost strokes in five
of eight starts during that stretch. Two of them are
basically break even, so there was only one event during
that run that he actually gained strokes with his approach play.
But however, since that little rest then these most recent
three starts, he's gained nearly twelve strokes total over those
three starts on just his approach, So that's basically plus
one a round, which may not sound like a lot,
but honestly, over the course of a twelve month period,
there's only one guy or maybe two guys that are
over plus one with their approach, and now, of course
that's what he's got it. So it's a good number.
And as Potter has gotten pretty hot as well, his
driver has.
Speaker 3: Always been good. He hits at a time.
Speaker 4: He's only lost strokes once off the tee in his
last nine starts, So I'm gonna assume his driver is
gonna continue. If he continues that iron play, which we've seen,
he's gonna be in the next He's just too good
compared to the rest of his field, just again because
of that that driver game.
Speaker 3: So I think he's des iron hots.
Speaker 4: I think tens again, sixty to one to win, Top
ten to six plus six hundred and top twenty plus
two to eighty all very good value. Or if you
can find another way to get on toy guard this week,
I think he's for that one.
Speaker 3: What it's worth. His brother's doing pretty well too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely runs in the family. Love that way on hok.
Speaker 4: Art there, don't make it wrong bad, don't grab the
wrong guy, although it probably is not gonna hurt you.
Speaker 2: True truth.
Speaker 1: So once again, guys, please hit the like button if
we're watching, just a nice little token of appreciation. And
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really helps us out and as always, leave a comment.
Love seeing who you guys are betting on, so leave
it down in the comment section. Let's go to DraftKings Darlings.
These are some more underdogs you can look at. But
DF's been going well this year. Tripped up last week,
had a bad weekend, three guys missed the cut. You're
never going to cash in that one, so try and
get back on the winning track. And I'm gonna go
back to my guy. He's Kevin Roy has just been
the draft Yeah, he's been the darling of the year
DFS gold mine. He's made the cut in ten of
his last eleven tournaments and they're still putting him out
at seven thousand. So consistent weekend scoring what I love.
Over the last three months, he's gained strokes in every
major category, so four top thirty finishes in his last
six starts, so he does have a little bit of upside.
Speaker 2: He's safe, he's got.
Speaker 1: Upside and he's only seven thousand, so this is just
a he's the ultimate DraftKings darling.
Speaker 2: Kevin Roy going to the William Mao.
Speaker 1: I believe that's how you pronounce his name up and
down the season, but he's heating up. Breakthrough win at
the Isco follows it up with a seventh place finish
at the three M Open, So you know, Nick, I'm
just gonna ride the hot train on some of these
guys that are lower priced. Last thirty days, seventh in
the field in total strokes gained. Obviously a win will
help you with that, but sometimes these guys just need
a little bit of confidence and they can go on
a really, really nice run. So at seventy one hundred,
really really good upside if he continues that hot streak,
and I'm gonna go with Gary Woodland. We haven't mentioned
his name much this year, but he's quietly rounding into form.
Offers really good value at this price. Made four straight cuts,
twentieth last week, and he's finished twenty seventh and twenty
eighth here in the last couple of years.
Speaker 2: So I get a guy.
Speaker 1: Who's playing well to make the cut and a guy
that's made the cut the last two years here, so
he knows how to navigate this course. Around the green
has been his real weak spot. But Nick, these greens
are pretty easy to hit. I can't imagine there's gonna
be a ton of up and down chances. So I
think maybe the week part of his game across Thursday
and Friday, especially with not much wind, I think that's
going to eliminate the weakest part of his game. So
putting and approach numbers have been really, really good. So
sneaky strong dfs play in this price range. It's got
Kevin Roy, william Ou and Gary Woodland as your DraftKings darlings.
My article is up on my page wt dot buzz
slash Al It's got the rest of my DraftKings lineups
as well as the course preview and all the write.
Speaker 2: Ups for the players that can trip you up.
Speaker 1: Nick, there was a couple of head to head matchups
someone to throw at you before. Jake Napp is matched
up against the Deki Matsuyama and Jake Knapp is plus money.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, sign me up next right.
Speaker 1: Right? Like it just feels like it just feels like
that's really really miss priced, Like Kdeki is minus one forty.
I'm not really sure what upside he's offering me up
these days.
Speaker 3: There was another value in a long run, but yeah, love, yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Would think so.
Speaker 1: And then uh, Jordan's Speith versus Akha Batilla, I thought
was kind of interesting. I just want nothing to do
with Batilla. Whenever you take Jordan' Speith in the head
to head, you're you're asking for trouble. But I really
like Speath in that one. I'm really down on Batilla.
He's never made the cut at this at this place.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's pretty wild.
Speaker 4: And honestly, last week he kind of came out of
nowhere to even have his name up with it because
he hadn't been doing anything for I feel like a while.
Speaker 3: So I don't know what to make it last week really,
so I do like to speak to.
Speaker 2: Love it, love it.
Speaker 1: So yeah, there's a couple head to heads for you
guys to take a look at. So all right, that's
going to do it for us playoffs to ride around
the corner. Guys, So make sure you're subscribed and to
make sure you join us every single week. We're going
to be breaking down all the playoffs all the way
through the Tour Championship and a really really fun year
of golf. So appreciate you guys joining us and good
looking all your bets this week. Make sure you come
back next week. We'll get you ready for the playoffs.
Have a great weekend and take care