Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Wednesday.
Speaker 2: It is time for total Bases, and we have eighteen
games in Major League Baseball today. Three games rained out yesterday,
which means three double headers today.
Speaker 1: Excellent slate of games morning till night.
Speaker 2: And yeah it's we're gonna talk Yankees, Blue Jays. We'll
probably touch on Brewers met the doubleheader. So a lot
of good action to talk about your one stop show
for all your Major League Baseball free picks right here
on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
Speaker 1: And we're gonna get right into it. I'm going to
Brian Leonard.
Speaker 2: He made a great call yesterday and Yankees Blue Jays
Canada Day. Sorry Canada, I got it. I didn't know
that at the beginning of the show yesterday. I know now,
hope you guys had a great Canada Day up there yesterday.
The Blue Jays certainly did, Brian Leonard. They went off.
They're playing unreal ball right now and they come in tonight.
Will Warren, Jose Barrios, how do you see this one?
Speaker 3: Before we get to that, there was a game yesterday
but suspended, the Boston game. I had Boston as one
of my two plays. The other was the Cleveland team
total under two to one, suspended after three innings. Let
us know if in this chat if that was called
a suspended game or if you still have action on
at today, be able to take a look at that
for future reference in that regard mine was suspended. We'll
see what happens.
Speaker 1: And it will vary book to books.
Speaker 3: Real very book to book. That's correct.
Speaker 2: We're just curious if you're if you played Red Sox Reds,
We're curious, is your bet pending or did they did
they cancel it?
Speaker 1: Did they call it? No action?
Speaker 2: So we'll talk Yankees, Blue Jays. We'll then go to
that sort of game and series. But let us know
in the chat so we can get the uh to
just get a gauge of how many people have action
and how many people.
Speaker 3: Don't yeap much to you, Yeah, Yankees Budgets Warren going
against the Barrios, two hot pitchers. Barrios is surprising me. Uh.
He's usually a guy I look to fade because of
his name, but he's been pitching very well this year.
Warren's when he's on, he's one of the best pitchers
in baseball. Still inconsistent in that regard the current line
on this is the Yankees with Warren about one twenty
two total of about nine slightly to the under will
Warren on the season comes in with a four point
three seven ERA three point four to six expected, so
he's had a little bit of bad luck. One point
three to two whip, that's been his problem in his career.
He's got a one point four to five whip in
two seasons. His walk rate is ten point one right now.
Strike out rate twenty nine point six, still excellent, nineteen
point five strike out much walk ratio, but he's still
a guy who has control issues. It's hard. Hit rate
is in the ninth percentile averag Jacus Velosty eleven, so
when he does get hit, he has been hit pretty hard.
But he's got a great strikeout percentage in the eighty
nine percentile extension in the eighty third. Throw six pitches
and his four seas is his primary at thirty nine percent.
If you take a look at what he has done
so far this year with each of his pitches, he's
done pretty well. His work percentage is really good on
the sweeper thirty five point four percent. His sinker not
really thirteen point seven. That's the only one where he's
not much of a strikeout pitch and he can't get
him off off the sweet sinker. But other other than that,
he's pitched pretty well this season. And as I said
earlier that Baryos is a guy right now who is
pitching very well as of late. Comes in with a
three point two six ERA four point five to five expected,
so there's some luck involved in his success. One point
two one whip very similar to his career numbers. If
you look at statcast page Baseball Savant, there's really no red,
which kind of surprises me for a guy that's has
that ERA. In fact, the last three years he's had
really good ERA three point two six, three point six
zero three point sixty five, pitching in a really good
hitting division. And so for him now haven't he read
it is kind of surprising barrel rates in the eighteenth percentile.
So he's another guy that can be hit. But in
this game, I'd like the way Toronto's playing. Came back
yesterday and we talked about that on the show. Whereas
we were looking to fade the starter yesterday freed for
the Yankees. It took a while to get there, but
you finally got hit later on in the game, and
Toronto performers very well. Current line on this there's seems
to be at least to me that it's where the
line should be, So I probably will not be getting
involved in this one.
Speaker 4: The way I see this is looking at the sides. Yeah,
I mean, yes, Toronto seems to be the hot team
right now, but actually they're just batting a little bit
better than the Yankees. The Yankees have picked it up
a little bit. I got them ranked fifteen and I
got the Blue Jays ranked twelve. Bullpen wise, Yankees have
a huge advantage as far as I can see, and
I have the starting pitchers pretty equal. So I'm not
going to play a side or a total in this.
But I did look up the outs props and there
is one that kind of caught my eye on this. Now.
I haven't played it officially yet, but Will Warren's outs
recorded seventeen and a half seems quite high to me.
What that means is over or under will he finish
six innings. Will Warren on the road has a five
plusdra He's been horrible on the road. I don't have
any sample size against these particular bats, but my projection
for his outs is fifteen point three, so basically just
over five innings. I don't think he's going to finish
six innings here. Toronto's hitting it pretty well. It's a
hitters park. I don't think he's going to finish six
innings here. So under the seventeen and a half might
be a pretty decent play, although I haven't played it yet.
Speaker 1: See, I think Warren's going to pitch pretty good here.
Speaker 3: He is.
Speaker 1: I'm coming around on this guy.
Speaker 2: He's someone that you know, maybe wasn't quite ready in
April when he was like in the starting rotation right
off the bat, but he's always sort of projected as
someone I thought would would find success at the big
league level at some point.
Speaker 1: Last couple months.
Speaker 2: I mean, with the exception of that start against the Dodgers,
he's been fantastic. Last time out, you know, navigated a
couple of walks, but really very minimal, minimal traffic on
the basis against the A's five innings, gave up two hit,
did walk for guys, but seven strikeouts. Pitched into the
seventh against the Orioles six innings, eleven strikeouts against the
Angels five and two thirds, scoreless ball against the Royals,
so there's been a lot to like. He's got a
very in my opinion, he spots his fastball. Well that's,
you know, kind of what I've noticed about him. I
feel like he throws to the corner. So you go
back to the A's start. Yeah, he walked a couple
of guys, but he wasn't missing out over the plate.
He really wasn't giving them a great chance to do
big time damage. Now the Blue Jays. Do I want
to bet against this team right now? Not really, because
I've I like this team. I feel like I've been
sort of driving the Blue Jays bus a little bit
over the last couple of weeks. I've bet them a
few times, so I don't really want to go against them,
but I wouldn't put anyone off of going against them here.
If you if you like the you know, if you
also like the Yankees. In the spot, Jays have used
a lot of bullpen in the past couple of days.
And you know, Barrios I've talked about really being like
a veteran guy that makes big pitches. He's a guy
that's gonna battle. But can can the Yankees get to him?
Of course, at least in my opinion, So minus won
twenty five felt. I don't like a tad cheap here,
maybe a little bit of a discount on the Yanks,
especially with the bultpen usage from the Blue Jays Lean Yankees.
Speaker 1: Not sure I'm going to bett, go ahead, Bryant.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. If Brandon Huma spoke, you say
the Warren was seventeen and a half on his Yes, okay,
So if it's seventeen and a half, he doesn't have
to go six, gotta go five and two thirds? Is
that correct?
Speaker 4: No, Yeah, you have to go get over seventeen and
a half. He has to finish six innings if.
Speaker 2: You go, because you need eighteen outs, so eighteen.
Speaker 3: But if it goes five and two thirds, it's only
sixteen seventeen, seventeen seventeen and go over under seventeen and
a half. Yeah, I almost heard that also in the chat.
It looks like a fifty to fifty split. And some
of them had a good kind of These sharper books
are the ones that canceled. The less sharp books, the
public books are the ones that let it go on.
So I'll keep that in mind in the future if
there is rain delays and you've got the better team,
Chances are you're probably better off playing at a if
you could still bet at like a DraftKings or a
FanDuel or something like that.
Speaker 2: So, Brian, let me ask you this, like, do you
have as someone that has action in that game one?
We actually have eighteen and a half games today. I
forgot about Red Sox Reds still going on as someone
that has action in game one? If like, is there
a way to get back in if you have a
canceled ticket, like based on the score right now, and
then let's just talk about game two.
Speaker 1: If you see anything there, Nick Martinez Brian Baya.
Speaker 3: I haven't seen anything. I mine was canceled and I
haven't seen anything about getting back into it or not.
Boston does have the leads, so you'd have to be paying.
It was basically a pick them yesterday, sure, so you'd
have to pay more for that. They've already said, you know,
obviously they're not bringing those guys back again. I believe
BeO is picking up for Boston in the game, and
at this point they don't know who they're gonna use
in in the the second game they normally schedule. We'll
have to say on that one. So what game? What
game would you like to talk about? Now?
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I guess that's a really good point.
Speaker 2: If they're gonna use Beao in game one, then we'll
have to see. I mean, there's really not much sense
in talking reds red Sox because you really kind of
need to see what's what's going on there.
Speaker 1: So let's move on to the chat.
Speaker 2: And I guess this is one I do like I
want to talk about this doubleheader. We'll mostly probably focus
on game two. So game one is the same matchup
as yesterday. We broke down Game one, Brewers Met. I'm
very curious to see what kind of goes on through
this doubleheader. I have a little bit of a plan myself,
so I'll go back to you, Brian Leonard. Any anything
in this doubleheader for you that's like different from yesterday?
Speaker 1: And are you looking at game two at all?
Speaker 2: I believe it's Miseroski and then maybe Tidwell for the Mets.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we obviously don't know who the relievers, what they
do in the first game, which is why I never
make any full judgments on the second game until the
first game is over. The Hans Peralta still lean with
Parolta here. Holmes has been a little bit shaky as
he goes on a little bit, and we all know
how the Mets are playing right now. In the second game,
I lean with Misrowski. Tidwell is one of the better
prospects for the Mets. He did get a little relief
action the other day. Did not pitch well. You can
understand that, but he's highly touted also, So I got
two of the better young pitchers in this game in
this second game. But I don't know how you can
go against miss Rowski right now. The way he's pitching.
He's obviously in the minors he had control problems. He
has not hit any of the majors. It's going to have.
It's it's somewhat similar to what we had with the
with Burns the other day with Cincinnati. Any any game
that those guys pitch, they are if there's if there's
such chance to for the other team to find some
flaws like they did with Burns, And that has come
out now that yes, they do know that he was
tipping us pitches, but you could tell when you watch
that game so slightly and for Milwaukee on both sides
probably won't get involved.
Speaker 4: Before I do the analysis. Look down at the scroller there.
To our websites on wager talk dot com, we all
always have something available. I have two plays out for
Major League Baseball today, also one comment. Management reached out
to all three of us yesterday and told us that
our video got great response from the crowd. So I
just want to thank you guys for being interactive with
us and being active in the chat. Management did reach
out to us and congratulate us yesterday, so that was
a good thing. It's a good thing for our show.
So appreciate We didn't do it, you guys did it,
so we appreciate it. Let's get onto this game. I
generally don't like to do the game two of double headers,
but I certainly am interested in this one because we
have an extremely talented picture, although he only has sixteen
innings of experience this year. But Miserowski versu Tidwell, I'll
take Miserowski any day, and I have no idea even
in the first game. Why the Mets are favored doesn't
make sense to me. Brewers. I got them ranked hitting
six in MLB. I got the Mets ranked twenty one
A bullpen. I got the Brewers ranked nine and I
got the Mets ranked twenty. So Brewers have extreme advantages,
and almost everything I see here Clay home Holmes is
a decent picture, Peralta is a good picture. So that's
pretty much the only area where I think they can
stand even ground with the Brewers. What scares me a
little bit is the Mets are a really good home team.
But I said this on yesterday's show, What Trump's what
you know, being extremely cold or being a really good
home team, I think being extremely cold gets the upper
hand here. I don't know why the Mets are favored,
probably because of their home record and because Holmes is
a decent picture. But Game two they don't have a
decent picture, and the Mets the Brewers do have a
decent picture. So I really like the Brewers in Game two.
I don't care who they rest, I don't care who
they use in their bullpen. I don't care any of that.
The Brewers advantage is so huge I am probably going
to take a rare game to bet here.
Speaker 3: Can I just ask a question? The problem with Bett
and Mesrowsky is we've been taught when we handicap, you
want to buy low, sell high. Well, obviously his by
price right now is hot higher than it may ever be.
He may turn out to be a very good picture,
but right now you're buying high. And that's my only
concern about that.
Speaker 4: The one thirty I think for Game two for the Brewers.
Speaker 1: Well, here's here's what I would say.
Speaker 2: I think if you like Brewers Game two, I think
you should bet it now. Like so, this is what
I'm hoping happens. I'm gonna paint a little picture here.
If you want to hear me talk and you want
to hear us talk about game one. Deep dive Game one.
We did that on yesterday's show. You can always go
back to yesterday's show click the timestamp we talked about
game one.
Speaker 1: It's the same matchup.
Speaker 2: I'm very interested in Game two, and here's what I
hope happens. I would love to see the Brewers win
a close game in Game one where they use some
bullpen arms and win the game.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 2: Because here's the other thing, I don't think the masses
have really gotten involved with game two yet from a
betting standpoint.
Speaker 1: A lot of books haven't even put this up yet.
Speaker 2: So what I'm hoping is throughout the day now as
people realize, because I think this is a true a
day night doubleheader, it's not like a true doubleheader. I
think they're gonna empty the stadium and then sell game
two as a separate ticket. You know, New York. They're
they're never leaving a dollar on the table. They're not free,
no free baseball there. This is a one o'clock game.
Clear the stadium, different ticket for the night game, So
you're gonna have some time where like the game one
is gonna be over and you're gonna have hours elapse
before Game two kicks off. I'd love to see the
Brewers win a close game in Game one where they
use some bullpen arms, and I will I hope.
Speaker 1: What I hope happens is that minus one.
Speaker 2: Thirty on Miserroski becomes more like minus one fifty or
minus one sixty, maybe even brings the plus one and
a half run line in range. For me, Tidwell can
hold his own. I'm not gonna sit here and tell
you that he's on the same on the same plane
as Miserroski from a talent standpoint, but he certainly can.
Speaker 1: Hold his own.
Speaker 2: The one thing I've noticed with Miserowski so far, even
he's been elite since being called up, no question about that.
Five innings, six innings, five innings. Is he gonna go
into city field and exceed that?
Speaker 1: From a length.
Speaker 2: Standpoint, I don't know. I could see him getting six.
I don't think he's gonna go seven. I think, like
you know, a solid five to six inning outing from
him is what I would expect from him today. Now,
if the Brewers use the good bullpen arms in game one,
at worst, I'd beginning the Mets in what could be
a very desperate spot if they win game If they
lose Game one, the spot becomes very desperate, and I
at least get three innings where Miserski is not in yet,
the price is gonna be you know, it's gonna be
based on him being out there. So I'll be looking
at Mets Game two. But I really just want to see.
It's gonna take some stuff to happen in game one,
specifically using up bullpen arms and the price to jump,
because I do think as people that the recreational better
start to see, Oh, miss Roski against Tidwell game two.
Pulling up my betting abb at four pm now I'm
gonna just bet the Brewers. I do think the line
is gonna jump, and maybe we can take advantage of that.
So I'll be looking at nets in some fashion. In
game two, Mark Kinsen did the parlay hit? It sure did,
Brian Leonard getting us with an under last night Tokyo
Brandon of the Dodgers either the Rangers plus two twenty six,
which means the parlay now for every dollar that we
if you've played them evenly, every dollar is returned thirteen
to ninety.
Speaker 1: I believe we are we are.
Speaker 2: I think the high water mark for this was like
nineteen and change, so we're at some point the season
we are going to break that twenty unit mark. Who knows,
maybe we take a step in that direction today. Throughout
the rest of the show, we will be locking in
our show parlay legs, So you know, feel free to
like subscribe listen if you've got stuff to do and
you got to come back forty minutes from now to
check the parlay out. We're cool with that, But we'd
love for you to hang around and watch the rest
of the show because we will be talking about these
games the next forty minutes or so. All Right, moving on,
let's go to let's go to the chat here and
grab a different game because there's a there's plenty of
them today and chat that the chat is popping off. Well,
Titans CT, how many innings is Tidwell gonna give you?
He is a starter at triple A, I would say, like,
Tidwell's not gonna he'll go five or six unless he's
getting killed. I mean, if he's if he's yeah, like
if he's throwing. Like now that being said, it's a
really good question if the Mets, the Mets are gonna
be like, they'll take him out quicker if he gets
into trouble. But if he's throwing a decent game, it's
gonna be five or six. And that's why game one
is so important, because if the Mets don't use their
bullpen up in game one, then they're gonna be, you know,
I would say, more inclined to to use their good
arms in game two. It's why you have to really
kind of watch game one before you make a decision
on that game. Okay, Colin Gregory Marlins Twins over the
hottest team in Major League Baseball, the Miami Marlins. They
just continue to win It's been fun to watch. They're
a team that I've been high on since the beginning
of the year. I'm actually kicking myself that I haven't
made more money on them on this run.
Speaker 1: I haven't bet him that often, but it's.
Speaker 2: Been fun to watch and Brian Leonard they might be
in position to win again today. Jansen Junk's been great.
Simeon Woods Richardson for the Twins, how are you seeing
Marlins Twins?
Speaker 3: Yeah, my first look last night. I just every night
I look at the schedule before to try to get
an idea if there's something I really want to use,
because I think the line's going to move. My first
thought was Jackson Junk was going to be a nice
value here. Some money has come in on Miami a
little bit, but Simeon Woods Richardson, unfortunately the luck has
run out on him in his career now in four
seasons four point four to two ERA, one point three
to three whip. That's not going to get it done.
Considering his home park is not a bad pitcher's part
and he's had a lot of opportunities there. The only
red on his stat cast page is his extent in
the seventieth percentile, his barrel rate six percentile, ground ball
right ninth. So he gets hit hard and he gives
up fly balls. Not something I'm looking to back. Has
expected era is four point seventy four, very similar to
his era on the season, Jackson junk. He's looked better
than his number. Show One thing he has done very well,
and we talked about this last time. He doesn't walk anybody.
He's into one hundredth percentile and walks one point six
percent Now that was a little bit of a surprise
because the last three years it was eight point three,
six point one, eight point one all around the league
average even a little bit better. But this year he's
really put it together in that regard. The only problem
is because he throws the ball in the zone and
he's not walking people, he's getting hit hard. His expected
batting average is in the first percentile, his average EXA
velocity is in the first percentile, and his hard hit
rate is in the first percentile. So instead of playing
Miami in this game, I kind of let the over.
These are two guys that can get hit. We know
that Miami is on a really good hitting streak right now.
We've talked about this for the last month. They've done
very well here for their young hitters, and Minnesota their
oft injured third basement back yesterday. He's probably hurt again today,
but they're coming around with some of their guys that
are getting a little bit healthy in the lineup. I
think they'll get to Junk a little bit too. So
I'm going to play this one over the total, and
that's one of the ones that I'm thinking of for
my parley happen. I'm not looking at any yet, but
that's something I'm looking at. Total right now in that
game is eight and a half to the over, maybe
minus won eighteen. So I'm looking for that one over
and that's the best game I see right now that
we've talked about so far.
Speaker 4: Brian is correct. Junk does not throw balls or he
doesn't walk people. He does throw balls, he doesn't walk people.
Two walks all season I project him though at only
twelve point seven outs recorded. He does not go deep
into games at all. Will he start, I don't know,
but he's only thrown seventy nine pitches once. Every other
start he's gone under seventy nine pitches, so but progressively
he's getting further and further so maybe they're trying to
stretch him out a little bit or getting used to it.
You guys are down on Woods. I'm not so down
on him. Actually, I have him ranked a little higher
than Junk, but pretty much the same, right around the
same level. But Miami's just better at everything else than
the Twins. The Twins are very mediocre as far as
their bullpen is concerned. They're hitting. I have them ranked
nineteen in current form, not very good. Miami ranked six
and hitting or an eight and bullpen. So what Adam and
Brian were teaching me at the beginning when we started
doing this show that the Miami young arms are being
coached really well. It's starting the show now because their
bullpen's playing quite well. I think Miami would be the
only way you could go here. The question is how
deep is junkn to go doesn't really matter though, because
he's backed by a pretty good bullpen and the better lineup,
so that would probably be the only way to go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you're right about that, Marlins.
Speaker 2: They've put together kind of a little bit of a
pitching staff.
Speaker 1: They're hitting the ball. I'm with you.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't play the Twins here. I don't like what's
richardson at all. I don't know if I want to
like jump in now with the Marlins, as I think
they've won eight straight, I definitely lean toward the over.
My number falls right on where that what's this total
Brian half something like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, over, So my numbers like kind of right in
line with that.
Speaker 2: But you know, I look at I look at the
I think the Twins. Someone in the chat pointed out,
and I just want to confirm this. The Twins have
been shut out back to back games. Yep, that's correct.
Three nothing lost on Sunday night to Detroit, two nothing
lost last night to the Marlins. Twins will probably get
something here. You know, Junk is someone that remember, this
was a guy. I mean, he was terrible in the
Brewers organization, and the Brewers are an organization that tends
to do well with pitching as well. The Marlins have
definitely fixed him to an extent, but I wouldn't be
surprised if there's some regression there because he gives up
some absolute rockets. He is giving up some serious hard
hit and so yeah, listen, it's nice that you're not
walking guys, but if you're gonna give up one oh
eight off the bat.
Speaker 1: Every once in a while, that can turn into a
big inning.
Speaker 2: You know, you get a couple guys on base, you know,
string a couple of hits together, and suddenly someone gaps
want hits it out. There's your crooked number for the Twins.
That being said, like this Marlin's offense is just rolling
right now. And I've talked about these young teams the
snowball effect. There's a reason the Marlins are winning right now.
This team could turn around and lose seven in a row.
Like That's how when you've got a lot of young
guys that don't know better, it tends to be run
of really good, run of really bad. Right now, it's
really good for the Marlins, and there's nothing that I've
seen to suggest that it's not going to continue to
be really good, because there's no we don't know the
ceiling for a lot of these guys in this Marlins lineup.
And so I think you either have to ride the
Marlins or pass. And I lean with Brian Leonard. I
think there's probably runs in this game. All right, let's
move it, let's move along. We're olling, we're cruising. I
feel like we're making good time today. It's only nine
to twenty six. We've got a full half hour left
and change a bunch of games. So let's let me
go grab one from the chat.
Speaker 4: Here a lot of people saying they wanted to see Guardians. U.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to this one first. Well, we'll, we'll, we'll,
we'll get to him.
Speaker 2: Ethan says, plus one and a half of the White
Sox is at appetizing today, and I have a feeling.
Adam agrees, Well, I have to be honest, it wasn't
on It wasn't on my you know, sort of an
initial first pass through that being said, I don't think
there is. I mean, there's definitely value there. And the reason,
Brian Leonard is because I don't buy Clayton Kershaw being
a favorite of this of this magnitude at this point
against pretty much anyone. I think you're still paying for
the name, and then of course you're paying for Dodgers
at home. Not sure I'm gonna do it, but I
can't disagree with Ethan that the White Sox might be
some value here.
Speaker 1: How are you seeing White Sox Dodgers?
Speaker 3: I agree Brandon Eiser, his numbers aren't overly dominating four
point three three ERA, one point three three whip. His
UH expected ERA comes in at three point three to one,
So he's pitching with a little bit of bad luck.
He's not a big strikeout guy. His fastball velocity is
in the third percentile. But he does get good strikeouts.
I spoke there, he does get good strikeouts. In fact,
you look at his numbers, and I mentioned the past,
I play fantasy baseball. This is a guy who's showing
up under you know, the whiffs. He's always a chase leader,
a whiff leader, strikeout leader when he pitches. He just
hasn't pitched a lot. He's coming out of the bullpen mostly,
and he will do that. He won't go along in
this game, but when he's in the game, yes, they're
going to be very competitive. He's a lefty and the
Dodgers haven't seen him obviously, and so it's a situation
where I'm in agreement with you. I'm really surprised that
Kershaw is doing as well as he has done, considering
he really has no fastball any longer. So I looked
at that and I said, if I could play Chicago
White Sox and maybe the first half that would be
something I would take a look at. So let's let's
take a quick look at the line, and that one.
The current line for the full game is the Dodgers
about three to twenty total of nine. Let's see what
we're looking at here for the first.
Speaker 2: Half, right, I think it's going to be Sean Burke
that comes in behind Ier.
Speaker 1: So that's that's what I think they're doing today.
Speaker 3: Okay, and he's pitched a little bit better as of late.
If I remember correctly, it's looking at two sixty five
for the Dodgers in the first five. The thing is,
when you get a team as good as the Dodgers
the Yankees, the better teams in baseball, the longer the
game goes, the more chances they're gonna win in the
short term, first inning, first five, you'll find a lot
of the lesser teams have leads in that regard. And
so those are the better times. And the line is
telling you that you go on for three to two
to sixty to sixty five for Kers shop. But if
I could get Chicago plus, you can get up to
two thirty right now, A plus no money in the
first half. And if you take a look at the
spread in the first half of this game. We're looking
at Chicago plus in the first half plus a half
plus upwards of one. That's a pretty good bet. Chicago
first half plus one forty five plus plus a half
a run. Yeah, I'm interested in that. I think I
think there's ways to play Chicai. I wouldn't want to
play the Dodgers here. You just have an easy early game.
Or at least last last night, they scored early, took
a lead, and like said, on the rest of the game.
I don't think they're excited to play the White Sox.
And I searched the guy I like, so yeah, I
like the first half of that game. Also, So let's
go with the White Sox plus half in the first
half and see how that works out. I think that's
a pretty good bet that your parlay leg still thinking
about it.
Speaker 4: Okay, I'm gonna push back. I'm going to be the
devil's advocate here because I think Clayton Kershaw is having
a pretty good season. Actually, he's gone twenty three innings,
he's only given up four earned six inning, five inning,
seven inning, five inning. He's given up one two zero one.
I think he's pitching pretty good actually, But yes, he
is an old dog, and old dogs lose their juice
as the as the season progresses. Totally agree with that.
But Clayton Kershaw his whole career has been a good
regular season guy who just absolutely barfs on the mound
when the playoffs start. He's been like that his whole career. Right,
But yes, he's older now, but he's not starting as
many games as he was when he was in his primes,
So I don't understand all the Kershaw hate. Actually, I
think he's still pitching pretty good in my opinion. He
started out a little rough, but I think he's coming around.
These old veterans they find a way, you know, we
call it. I've said this before. It's it's like the
Maddox rule. You know, as you get older, you outsmart
the batters instead of overpowering them. It's just how you
how you do when you get older. Right. I think
he's cerebral enough to be able to do that. And
the White Sox are just a bad team. But White
Sox bullpen is playing better than the Dodgers bullpen currently,
and I have Sean Burke if he's gonna shoulder most
of the load in this game as the better pitcher
than Kershaw, but it's negligible. The lineups are no comparison,
so the question is, yeah, we probably will see a
lot of this Dodger bullpen, so uh, a little dicey,
but I kind of like Kershaw actually, But let.
Speaker 3: Me cut that in real quick. Here is what you're
talking about.
Speaker 4: Minus three hundred though.
Speaker 3: Yeah, uh, he does have a three point oh three, right,
but it's expected at three point nine zero. His problem
is he was always very good in walks, and now
he's at eight point three this season, which is basically
league average. His strikeout ray was always in the twenties
and thirties. This year it's only eighteen point six, So
you got him at ten point three strike out minus walk,
and on his chart he's in the first percentile a
hard hit rate, first percentile in averageackson of velocity, third
percentile in fastball velocity. He can't get hit, so he's
surprised me how well he's pitching. But there's no red
on his stackcast page, which tells me that he's doing
it with guile, but he's not doing it with the
actual ability that he's had in the past. Obviously in
three dollars is awful high price to have to pay
three sixty in some pass on the Dodgers. Here's d I.
Speaker 2: Agree that that is the problem with the Dodgers and
Kershaw in this game and some of these like older
veteran guys, you're always almost always going to pay for
the name, and you're especially gonna pay for the name
when they're when they're running good. So like a Verlander,
even though they don't have it like they used to,
they will run good at times. And when guys like that,
like a Scherzer, a Verlander, a Kershaw, start to really
run good, you're gonna pay for it. And that's what
you're being asked to do here. There's it's a very
appealing setup for the White Sox so as far as
like listen, Iert's in there to open because the White
Sox like the matchup with him against Otani and Freeman.
So my guess is the goal is to get Iceert's
gonna go from Otani to Freeman. That's probably the plan.
So that might be an inning, it might be an
inning and his third. It'll then be Sean Burke, and
then I think it's gonna be Grant Taylor, who is
someone that Brian Leonard talked about because he hasn't pitched
since Saturday, where he threw two innings. He's been awesome,
So he's one of these younger bullpen arms that are
under the radar. Brian Leonard talked about him before he
was called up. Since his call up on June tenth,
A zero point eight zero whip in the majors. That's
a pretty appealing pitching setup for the White Sox. There
ier against the good lefties and the Dodgers lineup Sean Burke,
Pray gives you three or four innings, doesn't get blown up.
Taylor probably for two. He might go in and shut
them down for two innings. They've never seen him before
and he's pretty nasty. All of a sudden, you're in
the seventh or eighth inning with a big price money
line potentially in position to win. So yeah, I like
that White Sox money. I like that White Sox money
line from a value perspective. I think from a numbers perspective,
that's a very good bet. Will it hit, Not sure,
but hey, it's one of the better like plus two
fifty plus two eighty.
Speaker 1: Money line bet you can make in my opinion, Go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the White Sox against lefties since the beginning of
Junior at one o two WRC plus, which is better
than the league average. So they've hit lefties pretty well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's an interesting one. I'm I'm glad.
Speaker 2: I wasn't thinking about I didn't know if we would
talk about that one today, And I guess I like
the White Sox more than I expected when I sort
of did my first run through this, so interesting, interesting
convo right there, we'll we'll continue on.
Speaker 3: I need good money on the White Sox this year,
we can at all.
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, we got a day game here. I see,
I see a couple we'll go to Steve Duke and
there's a couple others in the chat that have brought
this one up. Raise a's. I believe this is one
of the first ones the early games this afternoon. Raise a's.
We've got my quick notes earlier today, Brian Leonard I said, wow,
we've got used up bullpens on both sides. I didn't
go much past that, but you know, that was one
of the things that stood out to me was that
that both teams have kind of used their pent up
the last couple of days.
Speaker 1: It looks like it's gonna be Pepio.
Speaker 2: And what do we have Spence for the A's early
game out Steinbernerfield?
Speaker 1: How you seeing this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not getting too involved in this one because
the weather does have an effect here. The wind's blown
out to the left field at ten miles an hour,
which is pretty good. Probably has right field is where
the short porch is. It's time Brenner Field. There's a
lot of rain here starting at ten am fifty four
time the game is supposed to go off sixty three
seventy eight. This is a very good chance of being
one of those games it's either rained out or delayed,
which means when you take a look at the starters,
if you're looking to bet Pepio here, who Although I
like Spence overall, I think he's better than what his
number show. Pepio may only go three innings here, and
they may have a delay of some sort, so I
cannot lay Tampa Bay at this number. They're currently about
two ten. If I was to play this at all,
it would be the athletics and the A's hitting very well,
playing pretty well right now, they're playing much better on
the road than they do at home. We've seen that
all season long, even from a hitting perspective, I don't
know why they don't hit in their own ball park.
Suffarrenos come out and just hate this ballpark. And I
think that if they hadn't given him so much money,
he would be on the trending block. But I don't
know anybody who's willing to pay that kind of price
for Sava Reno, so they may be stuck with him.
But in this one right here, because of the rain
and everything, lean with the athletics, but we don't know
what's going to happen, if it's going to be able
to get fully played or not.
Speaker 4: I don't really know how to approach this one because
the Rays hit really well, but their bullpens performing poorly,
which generally makes me lean to an over. But then
you look at the A's, who are not really hitting
very well and have a pretty good bullpen, at least
in current form. I got both of these pictures Spence.
I got him ranked nine on a curve of thirty,
where I have Hippio rank eleven on a curve of thirty.
So both pictures, Yeah, I mean, my first inclination would
be to lean to an over but at further look,
I probably wouldn't play that Rays are a little bit
better team. It's just not enough for me to play aside.
So yeah, that's pretty much where I'm at. I'm kind
of grid locked on this one.
Speaker 1: I agree with Chad.
Speaker 2: He says, born and raised in South Florida, it's not
going to rain for more than fifteen minutes. Yeah, Like
my family's got a place in Hollandale Beach. It is
like the worst rain for like fifteen twenty minutes and
then it's ninety degrees and sunny out again. I always
forget that we even have to deal with it with
raised games. Not used to still not use to them
playing outdoor. Another chat comment from the chat in or
from Chad that I kind of agree with that the
ball does kind of fly out of there during the
day at least, and that.
Speaker 1: Might be a little bit anecdotal for me.
Speaker 2: I don't have like exact numbers in front of me,
but there's been a couple of day games at steinbrin
Or Field this year where I just felt like pop
ups were ending in the fifth row of right field
seats right like it was like literal just balls that
I thought you had an outfield er camped under and
they left the ball. So that that's an interesting point
to bring up. I'll go back to the fact that
I think both bullpens have some usage. That nine over
at a discount minus one oh five, I think is
a reasonable look here, because I don't see how there's
not scoring one to nine in this game. Like I
don't see any spot in this game, in any inning
where the other team is just like a guarantee to
lock down their opponent. And with the nine flat you
get to four to four and at least you're you're
kind of free rolling.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I lean over there. Gee hurt.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember that one well because I lost in
this game, the Hunter Brown game. He pop ups and
they were six rows deep. Yeah, I took a loss
on that one when Hunter Brown, I literally thought it
was a can of corn and it was in the
fifth row of the outfield. So interesting stuff. That was
a day game earlier this season at Steinbrenner Field.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go.
Speaker 2: We are at the final third of the show where
cruise right along. I'm gonna go back in the chat
and grab Yeah, let's go Tokyo.
Speaker 1: Brandon brought this one up.
Speaker 2: Jay Dot says Guardians plus Money resident Guardian expert here,
Brian Leonard.
Speaker 1: Hit in this game last night. We're going back to
you Guardian's Cubs and.
Speaker 3: Managa a lefty going against Cleveland, tenn or Biby. Anytime
you got a lefty going against Cleveland. They've struggled since
beginning of June. Cleveland is at sixty eight on the
WRC plus just better in San Francisco the Athletics, which
you pointed out about a month ago, Trigg that they
were ended up struggling with versus lefties they have and
then the New York Mets in dead last of sixty two.
Cleveland is not. It's just not the last month either.
Cleveland just cannot hit lefties. They have two guys that
Fry and the center fielder that they brought in to
hit lefties. Neither one of them hit lefties this year.
So but yeah, we had that under yesterday in the
first or for the U for Cleveland, and that wouldn't
be a bad one once again here, but you know,
if you're looking at the Cleveland part, we have had
Bobby's pitch better as of late. He was playing more
to contact earlier in the year. Now he's now that
he's getting settled in, he's getting more strikeouts lately. His
stat cat page has a lot of red on it.
He comes in with a three point nine oh e RA,
a three point five eight expected one point one eight whip.
He's been very good. His only drawback really is his
chaser eight. He can't get people to chase. He's in
the tenth percentile in that in that run. The good
thing is but he's got a lot of pitches to throw.
He throws his for seam excuse me, the most, but
it's only twenty eight percent. So he's got six pitches
and he's using some of his other pitches more lately,
and he's having more success in that regard. Taking a
look at the Cubs that got in Monaga out there,
and he's he's a lefty in his second season. Comes
in with a two point five to four ARRA, but
is expected the RA four point three to two. His
whip is one point oh three. Last year, I only
walked four percent of the batters. This year's up to
seven point six still better than average, but he is
a flyball pitcher. He's only in the third percent tile
on ground ball right fastball velocity ten percentile. So when
I take a look at this game, I don't want
Cleveland because they can't hit lefties. So I'm either playing
Cleveland team total under. Both bullpens will be available here
and there. They're all should be in pretty good shape
here Cleveland, since they haven't been winning, they haven't been
using their best pitchers in the back of the bullpen.
They're to the point now right now that they need
to get those guys in the game. They need to
get them in even if it's even if they're not
winning the game. So in the second half of the game,
I think Cleveland's bullpen is going to be a big
help to holding down Chicago. So therefore, instead of just
playing Cleveland under, I'm looking to play the whole game under.
It opened seven and a half to the over. It
was bet up to eight to the over. Right now
we're looking eight over fifteen. I would play the under. There,
I would play the under eight. It may be minus
one oh five. I think that's a pretty good bet
because Bobby is pitching better than he has. He did
have one bet outing lately, but overall, I've watched all
of his starts and he's pitching much better. And him
and Iagoa being a lefty that Cleveland doesn't see very
often being in the National League, obviously they're going to
struggle with him. So give me that game. Under will
not be my best bet on the show, but it's
something I'm taking a look at.
Speaker 4: Guys. I went four and one in MLB yesterday, up
eighty six units on the year. I have an MLB
feature play. You can get it at the scroll thing
down there. Brian's page down there, Adam's page down there.
We are wonderful baseball cappers, so give us some love
and check out our page. Also, please go to the
replay and leave a comment and like it. We would
extremely appreciate your generosity in giving us those five seconds
of your time about this game. I'm gonna make this
my parley leg I like the Cubs on the money
line Cleveland. I have them ranked twenty nine out of
thirty and hitting they can't hit lefties. Brian says, they
can't hit anything right now, including lefties. Imanaga is kind
of the X factor, but I don't think he's much
of an X factor because I've seen him in Japan.
He did miss some time in Japan as well, and
every time he came back he was just fine. He's
one of those guys. He's just so durable, he's just
so reliable. He never was flashy. He never was one
of those guys like Darvish who just overpowers people and
strikes out thirteen guys. But he holds things down really well.
Mister reliable. I like him. I have him ranked slightly
higher than bb here or Biby. Bibby does walk fewer people.
His walk ratio is a little bit better than Ema Naga's,
but I have Imanaga ranked slightly higher. I have him
both ranked pretty close to each other, though, in the
top one third of starting pitchers. I you know, I
updated my numbers today and the Guardians are the only
team in Major League Baseball who rank twenty fifth or
worse in batting and bullpen at the same time in
all of Major League Baseball right now. According to my rankings.
These are not you know, these are my rankings. But yeah,
give me the Cubs all day here. I think Imanaga
can hold it down for at least going into the
sixth inning. I have him at sixteen point six outs recorded,
which means he should go into the sixth inning. Maybe
one or two outs in the sixth inning. Looks good
to me. Cubs bullpen is holding things down to have
them ranked twelve. So I don't see any reason why
the Cubs can't win this game. I don't know what
the odds are for that though, Brian, what do you
have for fair odds.
Speaker 3: On the Cubs minus one fifty five?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Oh, that's a play. That's cool.
Speaker 1: That's what I have as well.
Speaker 2: I'm in agreement when I you know, you have to
put the Dodgers at one if I feel like, if
you're power rating National League teams, you have to put
the Dodgers at one right now.
Speaker 1: It just it is what it is.
Speaker 2: That being said, when you look at the whole league, like,
I think Cubs would be my number two team from
a power rating standpoint, and I do think that they
kind of get maybe lost in the shovel a little bit,
especially because up until two weeks ago, you still had
the Mets up. You know you have You've had to
downgrade the Mets after the last couple of weeks. I
still think the Cubs fly under the radar. Just a
little bit with with just how good this team is.
Speaker 1: Minus one fifty five.
Speaker 2: Very fair in my opinion for the Cubs at home,
I don't like this Guardian's team one bit. I think
they're a bad baseball team. They don't hit, they don't
have the pitching they did last year. So TV, I
have nothing else to add. I think that's a very
good call.
Speaker 4: And I just have one thing to add when you're doing.
Speaker 1: So, I have nothing else. Cubs are just.
Speaker 4: One thing to add as we're trashing the Guardians. Sorry, Brian,
that's all I have.
Speaker 3: The first one very lucky the last few years.
Speaker 1: He came in.
Speaker 2: He came into the season saying that their their bullpen
was shot, and he's been one hundred percent right about that.
Speaker 4: So yeah they are. And actually they came into the
season ranked like top three bullpen, right, so that's pretty surprising.
They're playing so bad.
Speaker 3: The bullpen is so it's it's every year, it's different.
It all depends. Like for one of the reasons why
their bullpen numbers are bad is because they're not taking
leads and laid into the game, so they can't use
their best bullpen arms.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, all right, let's keep it going. I want
to go to this game because our friend Kaz in
the chat has asked about it. I may actually have
a parlay leg here and it's another early game, and
I know you guys want to talk some of the
games that are going to start in a couple hours.
So Cardinals, Pirates, don't look.
Speaker 1: Now. The other team that's starting to play good ball
is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Brian Leonard.
Speaker 2: I don't know if they it's going to take a
while for them to get back into any sort of
you know, get back in the mix. But hey, they've
played much better and they've got some really good pitchings.
Speaker 1: So who knows. Pirates, Cardinals, how you seeing this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mentioned about a week or two ago how
they were fifteen and fifteen. I believe since the coaching change,
a manager change, they've got to be better than that.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're playing really good ball. If you are a
guy who refuses to play underdogs, you're loosing on on
a lot of money. With Miami and Pittsburgh lately, Sonny
Gray going for Saint Louis. He is the best non
skeens pitcher in the for either one of these teams.
He's been very good. Line's about one twenty uh total
is about eight to the under twenty or seven to
the over twenty, whichever you prefer. But Sonny Gray's got
a lot of red on his statcass Page comes in
with a three point three six c RA three point
six to one expected one point zho nine whip. His
fastball velocity is only in the sixteenth percentile, but he's got,
you know, seven pitches he throws, and he slider is
only one percent of the time, but it's changed up
eight percent, So he's got anywhere from eight percent to
twenty one percent on any pitch out of six pitches.
So I love that. I love the veteran pitcher, especially
against a young team like Pittsburgh that if you watch
Pittsburgh bat against guys with breaking pitches, they look really
bad sometimes. And that's the situation we'll be in today.
Mitch Keller inning Xeter comes in with a three point
nine ORA three point ninety five expected one point two
two whip. Pretty decent, but he's not getting people to
swing and miss. His withif rages in the twelve percent
suspective batting average in the eighteenth percent strikeout percent twenty fourth,
So his strike out to Walker a show is only
twelve point five at a little less than what we
would like. But still Pittsburgh's playing very well right now.
I think because of the way Pittsburgh's playing right now,
I'm finding a little bit of value here on Saint Louis.
We've got the age of the Saint Louis staff against
a young team, a young hitting team. I would prefer
Gray in this game over Pittsburgh, and in Pittsburgh has
always been the team for me when growing up as
a little kid in Cleveland, I needed to pick a
National League team. Pittsburgh's close to Cleveland, I've always urd
it for the Pirates. But I think the line favored
Saint Louis a little bit in this game.
Speaker 4: Yeah, looking at these two teams, I have him almost deadlocked.
Every point I make, there's a counterpoint for the other team.
I see a little bit of a discrepancy between Sonny
Gray and Mitch Keller. Like Brian said, Mitch Keller innings eater.
Sonny Gray is just solid as heck. His road stat's
not as good as his homestats, but it's not that
much of a worry. Historically, he's pretty good against these
batters and he's eight and two. Can't argue with that.
I agree. We've talked before that wins don't really mean
a lot. But when you're eight and too, you're a
pretty good pitcher. I mean you can't. You can't become
eight and two without being good. And to prove the
point that wins don't matter, Mitch Keller's two and ten
and he's not a two in ten pitcher. It just
shows that when wins, win records, win loss record really
doesn't matter when you're when you're grading a starting pitcher,
unless he's eight and two, then you can say, wow,
I mean he earned those eight wins, you know, but
yes you could. You can be a terrible pitcher and
have the Dodgers line up behind you and be eight
and two. It's very true. So how do I break
this down? Batting wise? Unbelievably, the Pirates are batting like
number two in Major League Baseball in current form, where
the Cardinals are pretty toiling in mediocrity. But both bullpens
extremely solid, and Sonny Gray is extremely solid. I mean,
I think the only way you could go in this
is an under because both bullpens are so good right now.
And yes, the Pirates hitting is a little bit scary.
But do we really think the Pirates are the second
best offense in MLB? I don't think so current form
they are, but I think Sunny Gray can stop them
a little bit, so under would be the only way
I would go here.
Speaker 3: By the way, when's lost with games is four and
seven on the season, you tell me.
Speaker 4: Exactly exactly, it doesn't mean and keller Is is two
and ten. He's not that bad.
Speaker 2: So I was sort of ready to make a case
for the Pirates and look toward the plus one and
a half. This Pirates just took a considerable amount of money,
at least since I sort of jotted lines down before
the show. So Brian pointed out the value on the Cardinals.
He's right, because that was like I think the the Pirates.
Someone bet the Pirates to knock that down at least
from what it was earlier.
Speaker 1: I really they've been playing really good ball. I don't
want to go against him.
Speaker 2: I have no interest in the Pirates at this price,
and there's no value in the plus one and a half,
So I'm gonna give out my parlay league here. In
a different game, and then we can kind of talk
about this game, but I'm not gonna go into it
crazy because it's gonna be the Detroit Tigers in game
one of the doubleheader. We broke this game down yesterday.
I talked about liking the Tigers yesterday in that matchup.
Now it looks like the Tigers are going to go
with like the whole in opener, tight bullpen game, and
I'm pretty much fine with whatever they're gonna do because
they've got all their bullpen they can use just about
a j Hinch will do pretty much whatever he wants
to do to win the game in game one because
he knows he's got flarity in Game two.
Speaker 1: He knows that he's probably gonna let Flerity go six
in Game two.
Speaker 2: So I think you see Hinch really mix and match
if he needs to, Brian Leonard, he might not need to,
because I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers put a
crooked number on Trevor Williams at some point. So Tiger's
money line Game one is my parlay leg and I'll
throw it to you guys anything in this double header
in either game Game one or Game two.
Speaker 3: Ree Salston is back he may be following. They haven't
announced anything that I've seen. We've got Tigers fans in
the chat. Maybe they've seen something. But he's gonna be available,
and I really like him. He's a great pitcher. So
let me give you the current number on that. This
would be a Detroit first game of the double header.
Holton the Williams basically minus won fifty across the board.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that.
Speaker 2: And Olsen. So here's the thing. It probably will be Olsen.
He's Olson's pitched for a while at Toledo and they
used Kiedro. Montero made the start for the mud Heads
last night, so it's not gonna be Montero. If it's
Alsin's turn to pitch at Toledo, it's probably gonna be
Olsen in a in a bulk roll.
Speaker 1: So that's actually, that's actually very appealing.
Speaker 2: Holtand Olson better bullpen arms under those circumstances. I think
the Tigers should be closer to a two dollars favorite
in that first game. So minus one fifty sounds great.
We'll go Tiger's game one as the parlay lake.
Speaker 4: I normally have an opinion on this game.
Speaker 1: So that's all right.
Speaker 2: I want to go to Brian Leonard because we've only
got about four minutes left and he needs to close
out this parlay.
Speaker 1: So do you know what you want to put in this?
For the part?
Speaker 3: I do know I'm gonna do slightly different on one
of the games that I said I liked earlier. I'm
gonna take a look at that Miami game where I
originally said the over eight. I'm gonna play the first
half over four and a half at minus one twenty five.
I looked at the bullpens for both the teams, and
they both have especially the Twins have a very good bullpen.
They're all available tonight, so I don't want to get
where they got five or six runs in the first
five innings and then all of a sudden the bullpens
come in. So let me play the over four and
a half in the first five at minus one twenty five.
So we've got we're eating some talk again today. It
worked out for us yesterday we got that parlay win.
Let's see if we can get another one today.
Speaker 1: I'll go back to you, Tokyo, Brandon.
Speaker 2: As I calculate the parlay Tigers Nationals Game two of
that doubleheader is a pretty well known pitching matchup, so
it's like not much to not much guesswork. It's gonna
be Jack Flarity against Mackenzie Gore. Anything you'd look at
to potentially get involved. Tiger's Nationals Game two.
Speaker 4: So I'm not sure if I'll get involved yet. But
I have Gore ranked quite a bit higher than Flarity.
But I have have the Tigers bullpen ranked way higher
than Washington, and I have both lineups ranked number six
in current form, so good hitting one bad bullpen. Gore,
where do I have him ranked? I think I have
him ranked like seven out of all out of all
the pictures right now. Let me find where I have
that Gore. Yeah, I have Gore ranked number nine out
of all the major league pictures right now are starters,
so he's on fire. Flarity, Uh, I just I don't
like Flarity, just because now I'm not saying he's a
bad picture. But every time I back him, I lose.
Every time I go against him, I lose, So I
probably won't take that. He's one. You know, when you
when you sports bet thousands of bets a year, you
get these guys that you just hate to bet their games.
And Flarity is my guy.
Speaker 2: So to ask you guys, let me ask you guys,
called the question because you made a really good point, Flarity,
And especially depending on how the game the first game goes,
he might be asked to go out there and and
and give six, and Hinch might leave him out there
even if he doesn't have his best stuff. Is there
any like does that lead you to get involved in
any way in any market?
Speaker 1: We'll go to Brian first.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Flarry on the road home road economy is major.
It's been that way for a few years now. He's
very good pitching in Detroit, which is a good pitcher's ballpark, wah,
it is more of a good hitters ballpark. So I'm
lucky to go against Flerity a little bit and Gore
being a lefty. And as much as I like Gore,
Detroit is the number one team in the last month
with the WRC plus of one for hitting against lefties,
so they've been raking against lefties as of late. So
I kind of like the over. It's you can get
an eight over minus one fifteen. That's pretty much around there,
So obviously you have to take a look at So
I'm in no hurry to play it you got because
you got to take a look who's available. But if
they use some key bullpont arms, that it's not going
to stay. So if it gets late in that game
and they're starting to use their best ballpont arms, you
know you can bet the over in the second game
and get a little bit of value because I'm sure
it'll go up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's a.
Speaker 4: Lot on It depends on how game one goes. So yeah, well.
Speaker 2: And I was just going to point out that's another
it looks like that's another day night doubleheader. So they're
going to play the game, clear out the ballpark and
then bring them back in. So you're gonna have time,
probably a couple hours between games to to kind of
decide if you if you want to do that or not.
Speaker 4: One spot where you can take advantage of the Washington
Nationals is the books don't like them, but they hit
really well. They got a lot of young young guys
who can swap the ball really good. They got base steelers. Uh,
this team can make can produce runs, and the books
don't like them, So you can take advantage. If you
ever see a Washington team total three and a half,
you can take advantage of that on the OVERKZ.
Speaker 1: No energy dre for me anymore. I gave them up.
Speaker 2: This is a low calorie sweet tea right here that
I'm drinking with very minimal caffeine.
Speaker 1: So it's my version.
Speaker 2: It's like my version of the smoking patch for a
caffeine addict pretty much, because you know, I still got
to have something, but uh yeah, no, no more energy
drinks for me.
Speaker 1: I was.
Speaker 2: I was doing like six hundred milligrams of caffeine a
day at one point, trying you know, I turned thirty
nine today. We're trying to make it another you know,
another forty years. So I had to had to chill
out on the uh on the caffeine.
Speaker 1: Gee hurt.
Speaker 2: No, the caffeine and the coffee is fine. I don't
I don't go DCAF coffee. I just don't want to
see like you don't want to see Adam hopped up
on caffeine. No, I just gave up the two hundred
milligram of pop like ghost energy drinks.
Speaker 1: How to give those up?
Speaker 3: So happy birthday? A good president would be a three
taine parlay for the second day in a row. Here.
That's how we can get that.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it would be a great present, and yeah,
that would be It would be a great way to
cap off the birthday with another parlay win we won yesterday.
If anyone missed the show, our three team er hit
yesterday and uh before I sign off fourth of July
special up on everyone's page seven day all access go
check that out.
Speaker 1: Give us those likes and subscribes. That's what I want
for my birthday.
Speaker 2: Likes and subscribes on this show and on the wager
Talk YouTube channel. So we appreciate it. Comment on the
appreciate that and the parlay without further ado a lot
of debt. I think we're in action during the day
in most of these, uh, I am going with Tiger's
Game one on the moneyline minus one fifty.
Speaker 1: We've got Brian Leonard with Twins Marlin's.
Speaker 2: First five over four and a half, it's minus one
twenty five, and then Tokyo Brandon has the Cubs, so
two full game money lines. Tiger's Game one money line,
Cubs money line, and then Brian Leonard with a first
five over four and a half in the Marlins Twins
game that comes out to plus three ninety three and
hopefully comes out to another winner for US programming.
Speaker 1: Noe.
Speaker 2: We will be here on Friday, fourth of July. We
will have a fourth of July show, so put that
in your schedules if you guys have the day off,
we're going to be here for our normal hour and
then of course back tomorrow nine am Eastern for another
total basis.
Speaker 1: Brian, did you have something you wanted to add there?
Speaker 3: I just wanted to thank Jesse Shul for being in
the chat. He's been active in the chat today. Another
one of the really good handicappers over it over a
wager talk. That's the one thing about this show. We've
had a lot of the other handicappers pop in. A
lot of us just don't have the time to watch
other shows. They take the time to watch us because
they say they're learning something. And if these guys have
been around for as long as Jesse and some others Andy,
they come in and they watch a show, it really
helps them in a mex Us feel good because we're
a team effort. Even though we talk about ourselves a
lot on the show, we're a team effort. For why
you're talking, and we'd love everybody to have a lot
of success on the site.
Speaker 2: Yeah, shout out to Jesse Carmine comes in every once
in a while. Andy Laying, who I know, is like
busy as hell, so the fact that he's like popping
in is awesome. Appreciate all of you guys and over
eleven hundred live viewers on Twitter, which is fantastic as well.
Appreciate you guys, and we will be back tomorrow morning,
nine am for another total basis.
Speaker 1: Have a great day everyone,