1
00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:05,280
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. Welcome to Props and Parlays, your host,

2
00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:09,640
Andy Lane, being joined as always by my fellow NFL

3
00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,880
props betting specialist Andrew McGinnis. Andrew, we're breaking down my colts.

4
00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:16,519
It's being a breaking down. That's what my colts have

5
00:00:16,559 --> 00:00:18,879
done at the quarterback position. But we're gonna break down

6
00:00:19,359 --> 00:00:23,320
the colts in the forty nine ers. Happy Monday? How

7
00:00:23,359 --> 00:00:24,079
are you so far?

8
00:00:25,039 --> 00:00:26,079
Speaker 2: Happy Monday? Andy?

9
00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:28,320
Speaker 3: Was not my Bengo car to be talking about some

10
00:00:28,359 --> 00:00:30,559
of the players we're gonna be talking about today, that's

11
00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,039
for sure. But looking forward to a fun week of

12
00:00:33,119 --> 00:00:36,240
NFL betting, I really am. And obviously this week ends

13
00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:39,320
off tonight, but yeah, not a bad prop slate, not

14
00:00:39,359 --> 00:00:41,759
a bad prop slate, looking forward to it. And it

15
00:00:41,799 --> 00:00:43,880
was a quiet night for me and a quiet weekend

16
00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:45,600
for me as far as sports betting, kind of took

17
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,000
it very lately. So looking forward to getting back in

18
00:00:48,039 --> 00:00:49,399
action tonight. How about yourself?

19
00:00:50,719 --> 00:00:52,840
Speaker 1: Pretty decent. This is the second week in a row

20
00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:54,880
where we have a winning record in NFL. But we

21
00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,439
lost our big one, Jacoby Brissett. We had his over

22
00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:01,600
a big players, Jacob's over one and a half touchdown passes.

23
00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:03,640
You think the game when gods are looking down on

24
00:01:03,679 --> 00:01:05,959
you because he gets this kind of lucky catch by

25
00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,519
Michael Wilson, and then Harrison drops one and McBride drops

26
00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:11,959
one and they can't stop anybody and their entire team

27
00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,280
gets hurt. But we move on to tonight, and yes,

28
00:01:16,079 --> 00:01:18,200
in the year twenty twenty five, we have to talk

29
00:01:18,239 --> 00:01:21,599
about philip rivers and passing props, a phrase that I

30
00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,879
can't believe we're gonna do. But going to you, first, man,

31
00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,359
what are we doing with passing props in this game?

32
00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:29,400
Speaker 2: Am I boring?

33
00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,159
Speaker 3: If I just don't want to touch those props there?

34
00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,079
Like I mean, I think the answer is probably yes.

35
00:01:34,439 --> 00:01:36,400
If I don't want to look towards anything to do

36
00:01:36,439 --> 00:01:39,519
with him, I think when it comes down to it,

37
00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,519
you probably just want to look towards Brock Purdy. I've

38
00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:46,959
locked him in at at least two hundred and fifty passing.

39
00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:48,200
Speaker 2: Yards at plus one oh five.

40
00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,799
Speaker 3: You know, when you've got a team that ranks so

41
00:01:51,439 --> 00:01:55,640
well against the run but so poorly against the pass,

42
00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,599
when there's that big of a discrepancy, you have to

43
00:01:58,599 --> 00:01:59,319
bet against it.

44
00:01:59,359 --> 00:02:00,640
Speaker 2: And so I think that the move.

45
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:02,840
Speaker 3: Here is to take a look at pretty over on

46
00:02:02,959 --> 00:02:06,319
his passing yards. I wouldn't talk anybody oulsese the completions

47
00:02:06,359 --> 00:02:08,919
as well, but just taking a look at some of

48
00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:12,360
the guys that have had success against this Colts team recently.

49
00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,240
You've got Sam Darnold two seventy one, CJ. Stroud two

50
00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:20,360
seventy six, Mahomes three point fifty two, Justin Herbert four

51
00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:24,159
to twenty, Jacoby Brissett you were just mentioning him three twenty,

52
00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:26,439
uh Stafford three seventy five.

53
00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,560
Speaker 2: A lot of guys have put some numbers up against.

54
00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,000
Speaker 3: This team, and overall, Andy, if we if we look

55
00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:35,080
past just the just the yards and look towards attempts

56
00:02:35,159 --> 00:02:37,680
as well, you know we've seen some thirty six, some

57
00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,159
thirty five, some forty six, some thirty eight.

58
00:02:40,199 --> 00:02:41,479
Speaker 2: There has been those numbers there.

59
00:02:41,479 --> 00:02:44,759
Speaker 3: So when you're going from a team that does so

60
00:02:44,879 --> 00:02:47,560
well against the run but just pretty much the opposite

61
00:02:47,719 --> 00:02:51,199
against the pass, sometimes you you know, use that kiss

62
00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,360
method and keep it simple, stupid, and you just target

63
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,479
a very big weakness for them. I'm sure on the

64
00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:58,960
same page as me with that. How do you plan on,

65
00:02:59,439 --> 00:03:01,800
uh the Colts defense in the passing game?

66
00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:04,840
Speaker 1: Okay, So here's what you have to know about the Colts.

67
00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,080
We traded for Sauce Gardner and he's been out with

68
00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,120
the calf injury, and they're doing the right thing. Do

69
00:03:10,199 --> 00:03:15,199
not bring him back. We've just been snake bitten since

70
00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,520
he's been out. We've been one of the worst secondaries

71
00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:19,680
in the league. We were bad before, that's why we

72
00:03:19,719 --> 00:03:22,800
made the trade, but it's been really bad. I'm talking

73
00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:26,560
bottom three secondary. So you can throw all over this team.

74
00:03:26,879 --> 00:03:30,120
Add to that, DeForest Buckner is back. And by the way,

75
00:03:30,159 --> 00:03:31,960
I didn't know how scary his injury was. He was

76
00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,479
dealing with the neck injury and they were having real

77
00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,039
serious talks about can he come back. He's going to

78
00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,840
come back. When he is playing for the Colts, this

79
00:03:39,919 --> 00:03:45,479
rush defense goes from mediocre to really, really good. I

80
00:03:45,599 --> 00:03:49,000
expect the pass heavy attack from San Francisco. I don't

81
00:03:49,039 --> 00:03:51,360
know why they would mess around with trying to send

82
00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,560
Christian McCaffrey into the middle of this defensive line. So

83
00:03:54,599 --> 00:03:56,759
how does this equate to passing props? Andrew, I think

84
00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:02,400
you're spot on. Brock party over his passing yard without

85
00:04:02,439 --> 00:04:04,680
Sauce it, you can just exploit this, and I know

86
00:04:04,719 --> 00:04:06,759
they don't have Piercel and I know that. By the way,

87
00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:08,479
I know they don't have Ayuk. What is going on

88
00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:12,639
with that situation. As far as Philip Rivers Andrew, I'm

89
00:04:12,719 --> 00:04:16,319
leaning into it. Give me the unders. He was horrible

90
00:04:16,399 --> 00:04:20,040
last week four point four yards per attempt. Did you

91
00:04:20,079 --> 00:04:22,560
watch him try and throw the ball? They weren't throws,

92
00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:26,560
they were pushes it like he had absolutely no velocity

93
00:04:26,639 --> 00:04:30,199
on it. And now San Francisco knows this. There is

94
00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,120
no deep threat. So I think my favorite Philip Rivers

95
00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,480
is under twenty six and a half longest reception. This

96
00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,279
is just gonna have to be a screen pass that

97
00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:43,000
guys break tackles or some short pass because he's not

98
00:04:43,079 --> 00:04:45,720
throwing the ball twenty six and a half yards unless

99
00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,040
like there's completely blown covered. So I like, is under

100
00:04:49,079 --> 00:04:51,079
one fifty eight and a half passing, I like is

101
00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,040
under twenty six and a half longest reception. I know,

102
00:04:54,519 --> 00:04:56,800
I know they're indoors, and I know it's you know,

103
00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,079
it should be a fast track, but I just don't

104
00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,759
think this offense is going to be that difficult to

105
00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,079
defend it. On top of that, you gotta believe they're

106
00:05:04,079 --> 00:05:05,639
gonna be running the ball as many times as they

107
00:05:05,639 --> 00:05:08,040
possibly can. With Jonathan Taylor, they're hanging on by a

108
00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,839
thread to save their season. So you're gonna ride Jonathan Taylor.

109
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,360
Speaker 3: So that's that's completions prop Andy eighteen and a half.

110
00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:20,560
Heavily favored to the under right, heavily favored to the unders.

111
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:21,879
Speaker 2: So that's how you know.

112
00:05:21,959 --> 00:05:24,279
Speaker 3: It's like, yeah, this guy's not gonna throw the ball

113
00:05:24,439 --> 00:05:27,519
very much, or maybe he is, but his his percentage

114
00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:29,399
is gonna be so bad it won't even matter.

115
00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,399
Speaker 2: Like what we use. We talked under over on percentage.

116
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,560
Passing percentage for him tonight.

117
00:05:34,399 --> 00:05:36,680
Speaker 1: Probably high, probably pretty high.

118
00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:39,879
Speaker 2: It's completion percent yeah.

119
00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:41,959
Speaker 1: A high completion percent It's a lot of dump offs

120
00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:44,160
and a lot of really short pass we talk about

121
00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,160
like these these you could parlay things that don't make

122
00:05:47,199 --> 00:05:51,079
any sense over completions and underyards. You probably get in

123
00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,920
five or six to one on something like that. So

124
00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:57,040
I watched I watched him play last week and it

125
00:05:57,079 --> 00:06:00,959
was it was a fun story, but was it effective. Na,

126
00:06:01,199 --> 00:06:04,399
not really an offense. So I'll go with Rivers under

127
00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:05,680
party on the overs.

128
00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,000
Speaker 3: He started like three for eight, I think maybe three

129
00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,519
for nine, and then they were like, all right, we

130
00:06:12,079 --> 00:06:15,079
don't throw it farther than fifteen yards, don't throw it

131
00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:19,120
more than ten yards. Easy, But Andy, I gotta ask you, like,

132
00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,040
does it make it down? And this question has to

133
00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:24,160
be asked. Does it make a difference that this is

134
00:06:24,199 --> 00:06:24,839
the second week?

135
00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:25,920
Speaker 1: Like?

136
00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:28,399
Speaker 3: Is there a difference here with it being the second week?

137
00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,560
Is that part of the handicap at all? You mentioned

138
00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,360
the weather indoor, Like, does it make a difference being

139
00:06:33,439 --> 00:06:35,399
the second week for him with this team? Or it's

140
00:06:35,439 --> 00:06:37,480
like it the only difference it makes is that we

141
00:06:37,519 --> 00:06:39,079
know it's going to be just what we saw.

142
00:06:39,319 --> 00:06:41,399
Speaker 2: Simple plays, Okay.

143
00:06:41,519 --> 00:06:44,600
Speaker 1: Is there a world where he's still sore? The guys

144
00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:50,800
for forty four? He hasn't played in five years, good boy, Andrew,

145
00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,879
I turned forty six tomorrow. If I turn the wrong

146
00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,639
way in my sleep, I get up. I'm like, ah, man,

147
00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,639
I didn't and he just played his first professional football

148
00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,319
game in five years. Like you tell me he's one

149
00:07:02,399 --> 00:07:05,720
hundred percent healed. There's a there's a world where he

150
00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:07,000
looks way worse.

151
00:07:07,079 --> 00:07:07,279
Speaker 2: Now.

152
00:07:07,519 --> 00:07:10,199
Speaker 1: You know, he's a he's an animal, he's a dog.

153
00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,560
Maybe he comes out and he plays great, but I'm

154
00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:16,680
not willing to bet on you have a full game

155
00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,399
of film for san Fran to go over. You have

156
00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,720
a forty four year old guy that just played his

157
00:07:21,759 --> 00:07:24,600
first game in however many years. I think he still

158
00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,319
could be a little sore. So no, I'm out.

159
00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:29,600
Speaker 2: Primetime too.

160
00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:33,079
Speaker 3: I love that it's like a Monday night game, Phil Rivers,

161
00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,040
like it's not getting buried in like a one pm slate.

162
00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,519
It's like primetime Monday night football.

163
00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,439
Speaker 1: This has not been a kind week of primetime games

164
00:07:42,439 --> 00:07:46,519
for quarterbacks with Jordan Love and Lamar and Phil Rivers.

165
00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,920
So I added that the poor Chiefs are now down

166
00:07:49,959 --> 00:07:53,439
to their third string quarterback. So I mean we're to

167
00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,839
the point now where you know, if we Tyler Warren

168
00:07:55,879 --> 00:08:00,160
could be taking snaps. He's one of our backup quarterbacks. Right,

169
00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:01,800
We got to move on to receiving props. But Edge,

170
00:08:01,879 --> 00:08:03,319
real quick, tell her what you have up before we

171
00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:03,600
move on.

172
00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:05,519
Speaker 2: Look, Andy, we're up.

173
00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:07,839
Speaker 3: I think you know, close to twenty units this year

174
00:08:07,839 --> 00:08:10,560
with NFL player props. Number one with props pretty much

175
00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,720
no sides, no totals for me at the website. But

176
00:08:13,759 --> 00:08:16,079
I do go bigger on the props. You know, with hockey,

177
00:08:16,079 --> 00:08:18,800
I do you know half percent one percent with the props.

178
00:08:18,839 --> 00:08:21,319
I have been going three, four or five percent, doing

179
00:08:21,439 --> 00:08:23,800
very well with them, but again it remains low volumes.

180
00:08:23,879 --> 00:08:26,920
You guys can get that four percent play tonight over

181
00:08:26,959 --> 00:08:30,120
at wager talk dot com. My only play of the

182
00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:34,000
day as far as NFL is concerned. And NHL guys,

183
00:08:34,039 --> 00:08:36,399
we've got two more days the NHL before the break

184
00:08:37,159 --> 00:08:38,919
kicks in, so make sure you get involved. If you

185
00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,559
want to get action today or tomorrow, you guys can

186
00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,720
get my NHL plays, get my packages.

187
00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:46,440
Speaker 2: I will have two packs available.

188
00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,039
Speaker 3: For most of the day, so instead of buying just

189
00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:50,440
one play, you guys can go ahead and get every

190
00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,320
play in one package. We also recommend the day passes

191
00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,279
on the busy days, Andy, you know Christmas Day with

192
00:08:56,399 --> 00:08:59,000
the NBA, with the NFL, with so much stuff going on.

193
00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:00,000
Speaker 2: Boxing Day, I'm going to.

194
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,759
Speaker 3: Have the World Hockey so there's always so much stuff

195
00:09:02,799 --> 00:09:04,200
going on, and I think the best thing that I

196
00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,360
recommend is the all access stuff.

197
00:09:06,399 --> 00:09:07,279
Speaker 2: Don't miss anything.

198
00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,799
Speaker 3: You know, you buy one play, you know sometimes for

199
00:09:09,919 --> 00:09:12,440
four dollars more, you're gonna get every single play that

200
00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,320
we release. So Andy, you know what you said at

201
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:17,759
the top of the show, I completely agree with you.

202
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,639
It's gonna be very frustrating when that happens. By the

203
00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:22,519
end of the day, you had a winning day, and

204
00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:24,240
so I'm here to tell you that's a good thing

205
00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,039
that you had a winning day. You know, everyone wants

206
00:09:26,039 --> 00:09:28,000
to hit the big one, and I understand that, but

207
00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,399
you're rolling, and you've also been rolling on primetime for

208
00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,799
what feels like two and a half months now, so

209
00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:35,159
I know you're ready to go for tonight.

210
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, we got one play that is up for for

211
00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:40,919
Monday Night Football to play. I absolutely love. So we

212
00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:42,639
have one play in that. We're gonna have an nbup

213
00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:46,759
as well. But we are celebrating my birthday, Andrew. It

214
00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,559
is my forty six birthday tomorrow, So how do we

215
00:09:49,639 --> 00:09:52,519
celebrate with one of our infamous promo codes. Of course,

216
00:09:52,799 --> 00:09:55,720
you could use the promo code Andy forty six. This

217
00:09:55,759 --> 00:09:58,879
is a smoking deal. Seven days for just forty six dollars.

218
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,759
This include all plays, all percentages. It's pretty much the

219
00:10:02,799 --> 00:10:06,440
biggest no brainer out out there. One one five percent

220
00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:09,440
plays thirty five bucks, So for just eleven dollars more,

221
00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,000
you're gonna get seven days of every single play. This

222
00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:15,039
also includes our darts plays. This includes any cricket plays,

223
00:10:15,039 --> 00:10:17,320
that we have, we have our NBA, we have NFL.

224
00:10:17,399 --> 00:10:20,879
You're gonna get everything. So let's let's let's celebrate my

225
00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:25,240
birthday in style with doing seven days for forty six bucks.

226
00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,039
Use the promo code Andy forty six and get there

227
00:10:28,039 --> 00:10:32,559
with the shortcut WT dot buzz slash al. All right,

228
00:10:32,639 --> 00:10:35,039
Andrew coming to you. Let's go to receiving props. You

229
00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,799
already know my stands on You probably can already guess

230
00:10:37,799 --> 00:10:40,080
a few of my props. Where are you going with receiving?

231
00:10:41,159 --> 00:10:42,960
Speaker 3: I'll throw one out there, and I'm pretty sure you're

232
00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,399
gonna be on the same page as me, or maybe

233
00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,480
it'll be a different person, but a mere abdullah for

234
00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:52,000
me for the dump offs, I think that, you know,

235
00:10:53,039 --> 00:10:55,519
when I looked at Phil Rivers, and I'll be honest,

236
00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,279
I didn't watch much of the game last week, but

237
00:10:58,159 --> 00:10:59,559
I just like, what was texting?

238
00:10:59,600 --> 00:10:59,960
Speaker 2: Buddies?

239
00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:02,440
Speaker 3: Asked people, walked in the room, somebody was watching the game,

240
00:11:02,519 --> 00:11:04,879
and I was like, so, how's he doing? They're like,

241
00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,000
not bad. I was like, so how's that completion percentage?

242
00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,320
Well it's okay. Now, I was like, well how many

243
00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,639
times he thrown the ball far? And They're just like, well,

244
00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,679
not very many times. I'm just like, okay, and we

245
00:11:15,759 --> 00:11:17,559
kind of get that feeling. Jonathan Taylor is going to

246
00:11:17,639 --> 00:11:19,879
be the one that's just gonna have an insane amount

247
00:11:19,919 --> 00:11:21,919
of carries, so they might want to keep him away

248
00:11:21,919 --> 00:11:24,879
from the actual receiving game. But a mere abdula coming

249
00:11:24,919 --> 00:11:27,200
off a performance thirty two yards. But other than that,

250
00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,000
he hasn't been too too involved this year in the

251
00:11:30,039 --> 00:11:31,879
receiving game. But this could be a day to do it.

252
00:11:31,919 --> 00:11:34,639
And obviously, Andy, with these player props, you only need

253
00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:36,480
a few yards for a guy like this, so it

254
00:11:36,519 --> 00:11:38,679
could be worth it. The other guy I wanted to

255
00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:42,720
look towards. I constantly love looking at these type of

256
00:11:42,759 --> 00:11:47,600
bets when you've got like a player that has a

257
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,879
certain matchup against the team where they're pretty good overall

258
00:11:51,039 --> 00:11:54,559
against one position but not great against the other. And

259
00:11:54,600 --> 00:12:01,720
of course you've got the Colts fourth fourth against the rush,

260
00:12:01,799 --> 00:12:06,360
but thirtieth ranked against receiving, twenty eighth against tight ends.

261
00:12:06,799 --> 00:12:08,679
I think this is a good day for George Kittle.

262
00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:12,440
I've locked him in at at least seventy receiving guards

263
00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:15,879
at plus one hundred even odds there. He's been getting

264
00:12:15,879 --> 00:12:17,919
steady targets, And the one thing I like about him

265
00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,159
is that if you look at his chart, if you're

266
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:25,200
a recent history type of guy, it looks very, very consistent,

267
00:12:25,399 --> 00:12:27,240
like a lot of the numbers are the same. We got,

268
00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:31,039
you know, eighty eight, seventy eight, eighty four, Like it's

269
00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:33,639
it's buzzing around the exact same number. And now we

270
00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,320
have a very favorable matchup against the team that doesn't

271
00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:41,039
just struggle overall against the past, they struggle one against

272
00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,120
tight ends especially, So those are two that I like.

273
00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,919
Am I crazy andy for the Abdullah one I know

274
00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:48,960
that we were talking about.

275
00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:49,679
Speaker 2: I actually love that.

276
00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:51,639
Speaker 3: I want to figure out what that the same game

277
00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,519
parlay would be that you mentioned the over on completions

278
00:12:54,519 --> 00:12:57,600
and undrawn passing guards. But what do you think, because

279
00:12:58,000 --> 00:12:59,600
I think that we'll get to it in a second.

280
00:12:59,639 --> 00:13:04,159
But for Tailor, I feel like he'll be so so

281
00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,559
heavily involved in the running game. We got to find

282
00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:08,320
somebody else to use for the dumpoffs.

283
00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,559
Speaker 1: I think you and I talking about Philip Rivers throwing

284
00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,480
to a mirror of Dulah this year is one of

285
00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,159
the craziest things ever. And it's even crazy is I

286
00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,360
have to agree? Yeah, you're looking at some of these

287
00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:23,120
guys that are gonna catch shorter passes. A mirror duel

288
00:13:23,159 --> 00:13:27,279
and Philip the old mirror duel Philip Rivers conversation. Listen,

289
00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:31,039
I started Jawar Jordan in a fantasy league in a

290
00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:35,759
championship yesterday. That's that's where we're at. I'm with you

291
00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,320
some of these short pass I like Alec Pierce over

292
00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,440
one and a half receptions. I can't believe it's one

293
00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:44,039
and a half. This guy was at like five and

294
00:13:44,039 --> 00:13:47,039
a half earlier this season. He only had one catch

295
00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:49,519
last week. But just on sheer principle, this is this

296
00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:53,519
is just too low. Uh, he's he should get multiple targets.

297
00:13:53,759 --> 00:13:56,960
So I just on just on sheer principle, I cannot

298
00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:59,799
let the books get away with putting out Pierce at

299
00:13:59,799 --> 00:14:02,200
one and a half receptions. I will take Michael Pittman

300
00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,240
under fifteen and a half on his longest reception. His

301
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,720
longest was twelve last week he only had three catches.

302
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:14,519
And Pittman not really the short kind of catch guy.

303
00:14:14,799 --> 00:14:16,919
He's kind of a little Him and Piers kind of

304
00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:18,879
depend on some of these bigger plays. But I just

305
00:14:18,879 --> 00:14:22,879
don't see Pittman going deep for one, and then I'll

306
00:14:22,879 --> 00:14:25,159
look at Kendrick Bourne over twenty two and a half receiving.

307
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,919
Ricky Piersoll is out and he's gone over this short

308
00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,320
total in four out of six games with Pearsaw out

309
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,399
of the lineup, and again, I just expect the heavy

310
00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:37,200
San Francisco passing attack, So that's what I'm looking at receiving.

311
00:14:37,679 --> 00:14:40,759
Let's move to rushing props. I will go first on

312
00:14:40,799 --> 00:14:44,240
this one. I'm going brock Party over eleven and a

313
00:14:44,279 --> 00:14:49,080
half rushing yards for forty four last week. The Colts

314
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,039
rush defense I think is going to be much better

315
00:14:51,039 --> 00:14:54,559
against Christian McCaffrey. But brock Party seems to be healthy now,

316
00:14:54,639 --> 00:14:57,159
and when he's healthy, mobility is one of his strong suits.

317
00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:00,519
So this is a play that could easily go over

318
00:15:00,679 --> 00:15:04,200
in one play. And then I will take Christian McCaffrey

319
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,159
under his rushing I think he's going to be utilized

320
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:08,960
a little bit more in the passing game as under

321
00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,440
fifty nine and a half run defense I've talked about

322
00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,720
it with Buckner is just way better, and you just

323
00:15:14,759 --> 00:15:17,639
attack the Colts by throwing the ball. Don't be surprised

324
00:15:17,639 --> 00:15:20,360
if Brian Robinson gets some play here. So I think

325
00:15:20,399 --> 00:15:22,080
Christian McCaffrey is going to be a little bit more

326
00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,320
deadly in the passing attack as opposed to rushing. What

327
00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,039
do you like for rushing props, Andrew.

328
00:15:28,639 --> 00:15:30,720
Speaker 2: Andy, You know what, I've got just two attempts.

329
00:15:30,759 --> 00:15:33,720
Speaker 3: I'm going CMAC under and I'm going Jonathan Taylor over.

330
00:15:33,799 --> 00:15:35,879
And I know that number is just sky high for

331
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:40,080
Jonathan Taylor, but I just feel like it's going. Sometimes

332
00:15:40,159 --> 00:15:42,600
you just have to think it's going to be what

333
00:15:42,679 --> 00:15:45,639
you think that the script should be, and it's protect

334
00:15:45,759 --> 00:15:47,759
Phil Rivers at all costs. He's gonna go out there

335
00:15:47,799 --> 00:15:50,279
and be a quarterback tonight. But how much are they

336
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,559
going to actually make him pass the ball? You know,

337
00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,480
that's the question, And as much as they don't have to,

338
00:15:56,039 --> 00:15:58,600
they will. I think that Jonathan Taylor will get a

339
00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:03,039
ton of carries, but I like the under on carries

340
00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:07,759
for Christian McCaffrey. Just in case he just breaks off

341
00:16:07,799 --> 00:16:10,600
for like a fifty yard run, it only counts as

342
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,320
one carry. You know, That's my favorite part about it

343
00:16:13,399 --> 00:16:16,240
with these type of situations. So I do worry about

344
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,399
that with Semac if I can follow what I think

345
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,320
is going to be the case here with a high

346
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:24,480
pass offense tonight for this Sanfran team, and what you

347
00:16:24,559 --> 00:16:26,519
just said that makes me feel even better about my

348
00:16:26,559 --> 00:16:28,960
bet andy with him being involved in the receiving game.

349
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,080
But I'm going with the carries option just because if

350
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,120
he does break off for one or two, you know,

351
00:16:35,159 --> 00:16:37,200
the number is still seventeen and a half and I'm

352
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,039
actually getting close to even money on the under in

353
00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:43,159
this one. So we'll look for semac under on his carries.

354
00:16:44,759 --> 00:16:48,159
Speaker 1: We'll move to any time touchdown and guys, first off,

355
00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,879
thank you so much for watching a Notees holiday week.

356
00:16:50,919 --> 00:16:52,440
We really appreciate you taking the time out of a

357
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:54,759
day to watch. Hopefully we can give out some winning

358
00:16:54,759 --> 00:16:56,759
plays here and point in the right direction. If you could,

359
00:16:56,799 --> 00:16:59,360
please do us favorite hit The like button really helps

360
00:16:59,399 --> 00:17:02,120
the algorithm, and leave us comment. Tell us what's your

361
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,559
what's your favorite prop for tonight? Tell us if you

362
00:17:04,799 --> 00:17:08,960
agree disagree, try and do it before the game. Don't

363
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,039
wait till after the game, and tell us what you

364
00:17:11,079 --> 00:17:13,200
disagree with. Do it before the game.

365
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:19,839
Speaker 3: So like one in the morning, someone's commenting that happens

366
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:20,400
every week.

367
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,440
Speaker 1: We love you all, We love you all dearly, So

368
00:17:24,039 --> 00:17:26,359
let's do any time touchdown Andrew and then we were

369
00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:28,880
running out of time on these damn same game parlays.

370
00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:33,240
But let's do anytime touchout. This one's tough. I'll throw

371
00:17:33,279 --> 00:17:37,000
out Kittle at plus one oh five. I'll throw out

372
00:17:37,079 --> 00:17:42,480
Tyler Warren just because I get maybe a carry around

373
00:17:42,559 --> 00:17:45,079
the goal line. He can do that, and then I've

374
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:46,880
got I've got the big one here for you, Andrew

375
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:50,400
Philip Rivers at twenty to.

376
00:17:50,279 --> 00:17:55,599
Speaker 2: One, Arena is he gonna fall over?

377
00:17:56,799 --> 00:17:59,759
Speaker 1: It was a cute story for him starting at age

378
00:17:59,759 --> 00:18:02,559
four before. How incredible would this be if they actually

379
00:18:02,599 --> 00:18:06,920
get him a touchdown some kind of tush push or

380
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:11,200
broken play late. I just I could see Philip Rivers

381
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,880
going into the end zone and the announcers going nuts

382
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,160
and this being like one of the craziest things ever.

383
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,279
So Philip Rivers at twenty to one, that might be

384
00:18:19,319 --> 00:18:21,720
worth just a just a small little sprinkle. What do

385
00:18:21,759 --> 00:18:23,680
you think about any time touchdowns?

386
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:28,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I circled Warren Kittle and then that plus four

387
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:32,720
seventy five for the not so exciting quarterback, We'll go

388
00:18:32,759 --> 00:18:35,240
with Rock Praidy plus four.

389
00:18:35,079 --> 00:18:36,880
Speaker 2: Seventy five for him to get in there. So those

390
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:39,279
three kind of stick out for me. Andy.

391
00:18:39,319 --> 00:18:41,160
Speaker 3: We've talked about this a lot, like whether you're just

392
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,039
betting the props overall or you bet in the same

393
00:18:43,039 --> 00:18:45,599
game part lays, Like look at the numbers here, like

394
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,680
minus two forty one is two hundred, like even for

395
00:18:48,839 --> 00:18:52,440
Kittle is plus one point fifteen, Like like that is

396
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:56,960
a little bit frustrated to look at because let's say, like, okay,

397
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,480
how many how many receptions is he gonna get tonight?

398
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 2: And how many is he gonna get in the red zone?

399
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,799
Speaker 3: Right, yeah, so he probably yeah, like he drops one

400
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,319
red zone target, you lose this bet. Like he's not

401
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,759
gonna get multiple I don't think like he could. But

402
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,640
you know that's why it's interesting to look towards these

403
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,880
and and you know the thing is there's that argument

404
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,200
where people would say, like, well, it's not a good

405
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,440
bet to put a plus you know, minus two hundred

406
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,119
in your same game parlay or something.

407
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:24,759
Speaker 2: It's like, well, you.

408
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 3: Know, tell that to the people that bet on like

409
00:19:26,839 --> 00:19:29,640
Saquon or Hurts to get a touchdown like every single

410
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,400
week last year, or you know when CMAC was on

411
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,599
that insane run. There's a reason why these guys are

412
00:19:34,599 --> 00:19:38,240
these certain prices. But then you look at Kendrick Bourne

413
00:19:38,279 --> 00:19:41,400
plus four twenty five and you'll see send social media.

414
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:42,759
Speaker 2: Hey hey, hey, I was that guy, you know what

415
00:19:42,839 --> 00:19:43,119
I mean.

416
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,400
Speaker 3: But like, I'm sure those people have also lost like

417
00:19:45,839 --> 00:19:48,680
hundreds of slips with guys that were plus five hundred

418
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,119
that didn't hit. Like someday, I'd love to see those

419
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,200
people that make all these crazy bets like put on

420
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,759
Twitter like you guys aren't gonna believe the six slips

421
00:19:57,799 --> 00:20:00,119
I lost tonight on this plus five hundred, Like you

422
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:00,680
never see that.

423
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 1: You don't get a lot of clicks for putting out

424
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:04,640
losing bag tickets Andrew.

425
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,039
Speaker 3: People want to tell you about that win they had

426
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,000
and not the six other guys they took. Like I'd

427
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,000
be curious if some people don't just go down the

428
00:20:12,039 --> 00:20:14,119
list and just bet one hundred bucks on like every guy,

429
00:20:14,279 --> 00:20:17,440
just for the social engagement in case this one guy

430
00:20:17,559 --> 00:20:17,880
hit it.

431
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:18,160
Speaker 2: You know.

432
00:20:18,319 --> 00:20:21,640
Speaker 3: But I think the two the two tight ends do

433
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,480
warrant to bet tonight and then rock pretty you know what,

434
00:20:25,559 --> 00:20:28,200
let's just go with both both qbs Andy, Yours is

435
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:29,640
a little bit more exciting than mine, though.

436
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,160
Speaker 1: All right, well, I'm not going to be putting Philip

437
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:37,039
Rivers to score rushing touchdown in our anytime touchdown our

438
00:20:37,079 --> 00:20:37,960
same game parlay.

439
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:41,119
Speaker 2: So let's get really go three for four again.

440
00:20:41,319 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 1: We yeah, all right, we do a same game parlay

441
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,640
every week. This shows you how how hard this is.

442
00:20:48,759 --> 00:20:50,640
Adrew gets two legs. I get two legs. We have

443
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,200
yet to hit one this year, so we're running out

444
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,920
of time on a four legger. So I will go

445
00:20:57,039 --> 00:21:01,160
first here, Andrew. I will start brought perty two hundred

446
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,880
and sixty yards passing at plus one twenty four, So

447
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,759
purty to have over two sixty again, just beating this

448
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,559
drum that the Colts you can throw all over him.

449
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:12,359
Running is gonna be a lot harder with Buckner, so

450
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,640
I expect Perdy to throw the ball with a lot

451
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:16,920
of success. So I'll get a starter with two hundred

452
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,960
and sixty passing. What's your first leg?

453
00:21:19,799 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 3: I'll go with George Kittle sixty plus receiving yards here.

454
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,559
Not only bad against the pass in general, but have

455
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,319
consistently struggled against tight ends. And just what we've seen

456
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,119
from Kittle every single week, he hasn't really had any letdowns.

457
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,440
It's been relatively the same give or take number every

458
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,400
single week. Targets have been there obviously getting those receptions,

459
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,319
so I think he'll do well in this one. We'll

460
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:44,880
take that number I think I said on the show

461
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:46,960
seventy plus. Will take that number down to sixty for

462
00:21:47,039 --> 00:21:50,880
the for the purposes of the same game parlay, I'm.

463
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,799
Speaker 1: Gonna move to a race to twenty points, and I'll

464
00:21:52,799 --> 00:21:55,000
take the forty nine ers to get to twenty points.

465
00:21:55,079 --> 00:21:57,640
I think this is gonna be a tough task for

466
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,920
the Colts to get a whole lot going on offense,

467
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,119
and I think the forty nine ers are set up

468
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,440
pretty pretty good on offense tonight. So I'll add forty

469
00:22:05,519 --> 00:22:07,519
nine ers to be the first team to get to

470
00:22:07,559 --> 00:22:11,240
twenty points tonight. Leads us to our final leg. What

471
00:22:11,279 --> 00:22:12,160
are we closing out with?

472
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I gave this out last week and

473
00:22:15,279 --> 00:22:19,200
it did pretty well. Andy, We're gonna go alternate under

474
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:20,720
first half twenty four.

475
00:22:20,799 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 1: Half twenty four and a half. All right, So to recap,

476
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,599
we have brought Pridy to throw two hundred and sixty

477
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:34,119
plus passing yards. We have George Kittle sixty plus receiving yards.

478
00:22:34,599 --> 00:22:37,240
We have the forty nine ers first to twenty points,

479
00:22:37,279 --> 00:22:39,480
and we have the under twenty four and a half

480
00:22:39,839 --> 00:22:41,759
alternate total in the first half that gets us to

481
00:22:41,799 --> 00:22:45,799
a crisp, clean seven to one same game parlay. We

482
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:47,400
just got to see when going this week.

483
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 2: Man, just not that.

484
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 3: And honestly, I know there has been some like alternative

485
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:57,200
legs that's mostly just recently throughout the season. If people

486
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,359
have been taking any of ours that we put in

487
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,200
this as, you still had success, like we're we're going

488
00:23:03,319 --> 00:23:05,880
three for four, three for four, two for four, three

489
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,160
for four, Like I'd still say.

490
00:23:08,039 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 2: We've hit had a pretty good clip.

491
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 3: Like I know we've got some alternate numbers in here

492
00:23:11,559 --> 00:23:13,240
the past few weeks, but we're still heading out a

493
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,039
decent clip. So, but we need to see a full

494
00:23:15,079 --> 00:23:16,000
one go through the net.

495
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,519
Speaker 1: We gotta have one going. It's gonna be so disappointing

496
00:23:18,519 --> 00:23:21,000
if we go the whole Christmas miracle. Well, like the

497
00:23:21,079 --> 00:23:24,279
Jets still don't have an interception with like Andy and

498
00:23:24,279 --> 00:23:26,519
Andrews still don't have the same game parlay winner.

499
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,519
Speaker 3: So and we're having great years and we're both like

500
00:23:29,559 --> 00:23:31,440
at wager Talk, doing well with our picks.

501
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,039
Speaker 1: We can the same game parlay. All right, Andrew, one

502
00:23:35,039 --> 00:23:36,720
more time, what do you have up for everyone for Monday?

503
00:23:36,759 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 2: Night Football. Yeah, four percent. Best bet.

504
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 3: It is a player prop here in this game Niners

505
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,839
and Colts. And again we're up close to twenty units

506
00:23:43,839 --> 00:23:47,079
this season alone on player props in the NFL, and

507
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,400
if I do add anything in the NHL, it will

508
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,680
be a two pack of one side and one total.

509
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,039
Don't buy just one play, guys, get the day Pass.

510
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,839
We always recommend day Pass. Both Andy and I do

511
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,680
multiple sports, so if you buy just one player, that's

512
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:01,200
all you can to get. You buy a day Pass,

513
00:24:01,279 --> 00:24:04,039
you'll get every single thing that we release at Wager Talk.

514
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:05,839
Speaker 2: Guys, Happy holidays.

515
00:24:06,079 --> 00:24:08,799
Speaker 3: I really appreciate everyone for watching us every single week

516
00:24:08,799 --> 00:24:10,640
on this show. Andy and I have so much fun.

517
00:24:11,279 --> 00:24:13,839
And let's have a great night here on Monday Night, Andy.

518
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 1: Let's do it running the promo code Andy forty six

519
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,519
get you seven days for forty six bucks. Best deal

520
00:24:20,519 --> 00:24:23,440
we're gonna run all year. Why not celebrate my birthday

521
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,079
which is tomorrow on the twenty thirty. Yes, I am

522
00:24:26,079 --> 00:24:29,000
a Christmas baby. Shout out to all you Christmas babies. Uh,

523
00:24:29,279 --> 00:24:31,240
this is our our this is our time to shine

524
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,319
Christmas and Birthday. So thanks very much for watching guys,

525
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,039
Please like leave us a comment, good luck on your

526
00:24:37,079 --> 00:24:39,000
best tonight, and we'll see everyone next week. Take care,

