Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. Welcome to Props and Parlays, your host,
Andy Lane, being joined as always by my fellow NFL
props betting specialist Andrew McGinnis. Andrew, we're breaking down my colts.
It's being a breaking down. That's what my colts have
done at the quarterback position. But we're gonna break down
the colts in the forty nine ers. Happy Monday? How
are you so far?
Speaker 2: Happy Monday? Andy?
Speaker 3: Was not my Bengo car to be talking about some
of the players we're gonna be talking about today, that's
for sure. But looking forward to a fun week of
NFL betting, I really am. And obviously this week ends
off tonight, but yeah, not a bad prop slate, not
a bad prop slate, looking forward to it. And it
was a quiet night for me and a quiet weekend
for me as far as sports betting, kind of took
it very lately. So looking forward to getting back in
action tonight. How about yourself?
Speaker 1: Pretty decent. This is the second week in a row
where we have a winning record in NFL. But we
lost our big one, Jacoby Brissett. We had his over
a big players, Jacob's over one and a half touchdown passes.
You think the game when gods are looking down on
you because he gets this kind of lucky catch by
Michael Wilson, and then Harrison drops one and McBride drops
one and they can't stop anybody and their entire team
gets hurt. But we move on to tonight, and yes,
in the year twenty twenty five, we have to talk
about philip rivers and passing props, a phrase that I
can't believe we're gonna do. But going to you, first, man,
what are we doing with passing props in this game?
Speaker 2: Am I boring?
Speaker 3: If I just don't want to touch those props there?
Like I mean, I think the answer is probably yes.
If I don't want to look towards anything to do
with him, I think when it comes down to it,
you probably just want to look towards Brock Purdy. I've
locked him in at at least two hundred and fifty passing.
Speaker 2: Yards at plus one oh five.
Speaker 3: You know, when you've got a team that ranks so
well against the run but so poorly against the pass,
when there's that big of a discrepancy, you have to
bet against it.
Speaker 2: And so I think that the move.
Speaker 3: Here is to take a look at pretty over on
his passing yards. I wouldn't talk anybody oulsese the completions
as well, but just taking a look at some of
the guys that have had success against this Colts team recently.
You've got Sam Darnold two seventy one, CJ. Stroud two
seventy six, Mahomes three point fifty two, Justin Herbert four
to twenty, Jacoby Brissett you were just mentioning him three twenty,
uh Stafford three seventy five.
Speaker 2: A lot of guys have put some numbers up against.
Speaker 3: This team, and overall, Andy, if we if we look
past just the just the yards and look towards attempts
as well, you know we've seen some thirty six, some
thirty five, some forty six, some thirty eight.
Speaker 2: There has been those numbers there.
Speaker 3: So when you're going from a team that does so
well against the run but just pretty much the opposite
against the pass, sometimes you you know, use that kiss
method and keep it simple, stupid, and you just target
a very big weakness for them. I'm sure on the
same page as me with that. How do you plan on,
uh the Colts defense in the passing game?
Speaker 1: Okay, So here's what you have to know about the Colts.
We traded for Sauce Gardner and he's been out with
the calf injury, and they're doing the right thing. Do
not bring him back. We've just been snake bitten since
he's been out. We've been one of the worst secondaries
in the league. We were bad before, that's why we
made the trade, but it's been really bad. I'm talking
bottom three secondary. So you can throw all over this team.
Add to that, DeForest Buckner is back. And by the way,
I didn't know how scary his injury was. He was
dealing with the neck injury and they were having real
serious talks about can he come back. He's going to
come back. When he is playing for the Colts, this
rush defense goes from mediocre to really, really good. I
expect the pass heavy attack from San Francisco. I don't
know why they would mess around with trying to send
Christian McCaffrey into the middle of this defensive line. So
how does this equate to passing props? Andrew, I think
you're spot on. Brock party over his passing yard without
Sauce it, you can just exploit this, and I know
they don't have Piercel and I know that. By the way,
I know they don't have Ayuk. What is going on
with that situation. As far as Philip Rivers Andrew, I'm
leaning into it. Give me the unders. He was horrible
last week four point four yards per attempt. Did you
watch him try and throw the ball? They weren't throws,
they were pushes it like he had absolutely no velocity
on it. And now San Francisco knows this. There is
no deep threat. So I think my favorite Philip Rivers
is under twenty six and a half longest reception. This
is just gonna have to be a screen pass that
guys break tackles or some short pass because he's not
throwing the ball twenty six and a half yards unless
like there's completely blown covered. So I like, is under
one fifty eight and a half passing, I like is
under twenty six and a half longest reception. I know,
I know they're indoors, and I know it's you know,
it should be a fast track, but I just don't
think this offense is going to be that difficult to
defend it. On top of that, you gotta believe they're
gonna be running the ball as many times as they
possibly can. With Jonathan Taylor, they're hanging on by a
thread to save their season. So you're gonna ride Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 3: So that's that's completions prop Andy eighteen and a half.
Heavily favored to the under right, heavily favored to the unders.
Speaker 2: So that's how you know.
Speaker 3: It's like, yeah, this guy's not gonna throw the ball
very much, or maybe he is, but his his percentage
is gonna be so bad it won't even matter.
Speaker 2: Like what we use. We talked under over on percentage.
Passing percentage for him tonight.
Speaker 1: Probably high, probably pretty high.
Speaker 2: It's completion percent yeah.
Speaker 1: A high completion percent It's a lot of dump offs
and a lot of really short pass we talk about
like these these you could parlay things that don't make
any sense over completions and underyards. You probably get in
five or six to one on something like that. So
I watched I watched him play last week and it
was it was a fun story, but was it effective. Na,
not really an offense. So I'll go with Rivers under
party on the overs.
Speaker 3: He started like three for eight, I think maybe three
for nine, and then they were like, all right, we
don't throw it farther than fifteen yards, don't throw it
more than ten yards. Easy, But Andy, I gotta ask you, like,
does it make it down? And this question has to
be asked. Does it make a difference that this is
the second week?
Speaker 1: Like?
Speaker 3: Is there a difference here with it being the second week?
Is that part of the handicap at all? You mentioned
the weather indoor, Like, does it make a difference being
the second week for him with this team? Or it's
like it the only difference it makes is that we
know it's going to be just what we saw.
Speaker 2: Simple plays, Okay.
Speaker 1: Is there a world where he's still sore? The guys
for forty four? He hasn't played in five years, good boy, Andrew,
I turned forty six tomorrow. If I turn the wrong
way in my sleep, I get up. I'm like, ah, man,
I didn't and he just played his first professional football
game in five years. Like you tell me he's one
hundred percent healed. There's a there's a world where he
looks way worse.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: You know, he's a he's an animal, he's a dog.
Maybe he comes out and he plays great, but I'm
not willing to bet on you have a full game
of film for san Fran to go over. You have
a forty four year old guy that just played his
first game in however many years. I think he still
could be a little sore. So no, I'm out.
Speaker 2: Primetime too.
Speaker 3: I love that it's like a Monday night game, Phil Rivers,
like it's not getting buried in like a one pm slate.
It's like primetime Monday night football.
Speaker 1: This has not been a kind week of primetime games
for quarterbacks with Jordan Love and Lamar and Phil Rivers.
So I added that the poor Chiefs are now down
to their third string quarterback. So I mean we're to
the point now where you know, if we Tyler Warren
could be taking snaps. He's one of our backup quarterbacks. Right,
We got to move on to receiving props. But Edge,
real quick, tell her what you have up before we
move on.
Speaker 2: Look, Andy, we're up.
Speaker 3: I think you know, close to twenty units this year
with NFL player props. Number one with props pretty much
no sides, no totals for me at the website. But
I do go bigger on the props. You know, with hockey,
I do you know half percent one percent with the props.
I have been going three, four or five percent, doing
very well with them, but again it remains low volumes.
You guys can get that four percent play tonight over
at wager talk dot com. My only play of the
day as far as NFL is concerned. And NHL guys,
we've got two more days the NHL before the break
kicks in, so make sure you get involved. If you
want to get action today or tomorrow, you guys can
get my NHL plays, get my packages.
Speaker 2: I will have two packs available.
Speaker 3: For most of the day, so instead of buying just
one play, you guys can go ahead and get every
play in one package. We also recommend the day passes
on the busy days, Andy, you know Christmas Day with
the NBA, with the NFL, with so much stuff going on.
Speaker 2: Boxing Day, I'm going to.
Speaker 3: Have the World Hockey so there's always so much stuff
going on, and I think the best thing that I
recommend is the all access stuff.
Speaker 2: Don't miss anything.
Speaker 3: You know, you buy one play, you know sometimes for
four dollars more, you're gonna get every single play that
we release. So Andy, you know what you said at
the top of the show, I completely agree with you.
It's gonna be very frustrating when that happens. By the
end of the day, you had a winning day, and
so I'm here to tell you that's a good thing
that you had a winning day. You know, everyone wants
to hit the big one, and I understand that, but
you're rolling, and you've also been rolling on primetime for
what feels like two and a half months now, so
I know you're ready to go for tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we got one play that is up for for
Monday Night Football to play. I absolutely love. So we
have one play in that. We're gonna have an nbup
as well. But we are celebrating my birthday, Andrew. It
is my forty six birthday tomorrow, So how do we
celebrate with one of our infamous promo codes. Of course,
you could use the promo code Andy forty six. This
is a smoking deal. Seven days for just forty six dollars.
This include all plays, all percentages. It's pretty much the
biggest no brainer out out there. One one five percent
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You're gonna get everything. So let's let's let's celebrate my
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Use the promo code Andy forty six and get there
with the shortcut WT dot buzz slash al. All right,
Andrew coming to you. Let's go to receiving props. You
already know my stands on You probably can already guess
a few of my props. Where are you going with receiving?
Speaker 3: I'll throw one out there, and I'm pretty sure you're
gonna be on the same page as me, or maybe
it'll be a different person, but a mere abdullah for
me for the dump offs, I think that, you know,
when I looked at Phil Rivers, and I'll be honest,
I didn't watch much of the game last week, but
I just like, what was texting?
Speaker 2: Buddies?
Speaker 3: Asked people, walked in the room, somebody was watching the game,
and I was like, so, how's he doing? They're like,
not bad. I was like, so how's that completion percentage?
Well it's okay. Now, I was like, well how many
times he thrown the ball far? And They're just like, well,
not very many times. I'm just like, okay, and we
kind of get that feeling. Jonathan Taylor is going to
be the one that's just gonna have an insane amount
of carries, so they might want to keep him away
from the actual receiving game. But a mere abdula coming
off a performance thirty two yards. But other than that,
he hasn't been too too involved this year in the
receiving game. But this could be a day to do it.
And obviously, Andy, with these player props, you only need
a few yards for a guy like this, so it
could be worth it. The other guy I wanted to
look towards. I constantly love looking at these type of
bets when you've got like a player that has a
certain matchup against the team where they're pretty good overall
against one position but not great against the other. And
of course you've got the Colts fourth fourth against the rush,
but thirtieth ranked against receiving, twenty eighth against tight ends.
I think this is a good day for George Kittle.
I've locked him in at at least seventy receiving guards
at plus one hundred even odds there. He's been getting
steady targets, And the one thing I like about him
is that if you look at his chart, if you're
a recent history type of guy, it looks very, very consistent,
like a lot of the numbers are the same. We got,
you know, eighty eight, seventy eight, eighty four, Like it's
it's buzzing around the exact same number. And now we
have a very favorable matchup against the team that doesn't
just struggle overall against the past, they struggle one against
tight ends especially, So those are two that I like.
Am I crazy andy for the Abdullah one I know
that we were talking about.
Speaker 2: I actually love that.
Speaker 3: I want to figure out what that the same game
parlay would be that you mentioned the over on completions
and undrawn passing guards. But what do you think, because
I think that we'll get to it in a second.
But for Tailor, I feel like he'll be so so
heavily involved in the running game. We got to find
somebody else to use for the dumpoffs.
Speaker 1: I think you and I talking about Philip Rivers throwing
to a mirror of Dulah this year is one of
the craziest things ever. And it's even crazy is I
have to agree? Yeah, you're looking at some of these
guys that are gonna catch shorter passes. A mirror duel
and Philip the old mirror duel Philip Rivers conversation. Listen,
I started Jawar Jordan in a fantasy league in a
championship yesterday. That's that's where we're at. I'm with you
some of these short pass I like Alec Pierce over
one and a half receptions. I can't believe it's one
and a half. This guy was at like five and
a half earlier this season. He only had one catch
last week. But just on sheer principle, this is this
is just too low. Uh, he's he should get multiple targets.
So I just on just on sheer principle, I cannot
let the books get away with putting out Pierce at
one and a half receptions. I will take Michael Pittman
under fifteen and a half on his longest reception. His
longest was twelve last week he only had three catches.
And Pittman not really the short kind of catch guy.
He's kind of a little Him and Piers kind of
depend on some of these bigger plays. But I just
don't see Pittman going deep for one, and then I'll
look at Kendrick Bourne over twenty two and a half receiving.
Ricky Piersoll is out and he's gone over this short
total in four out of six games with Pearsaw out
of the lineup, and again, I just expect the heavy
San Francisco passing attack, So that's what I'm looking at receiving.
Let's move to rushing props. I will go first on
this one. I'm going brock Party over eleven and a
half rushing yards for forty four last week. The Colts
rush defense I think is going to be much better
against Christian McCaffrey. But brock Party seems to be healthy now,
and when he's healthy, mobility is one of his strong suits.
So this is a play that could easily go over
in one play. And then I will take Christian McCaffrey
under his rushing I think he's going to be utilized
a little bit more in the passing game as under
fifty nine and a half run defense I've talked about
it with Buckner is just way better, and you just
attack the Colts by throwing the ball. Don't be surprised
if Brian Robinson gets some play here. So I think
Christian McCaffrey is going to be a little bit more
deadly in the passing attack as opposed to rushing. What
do you like for rushing props, Andrew.
Speaker 2: Andy, You know what, I've got just two attempts.
Speaker 3: I'm going CMAC under and I'm going Jonathan Taylor over.
And I know that number is just sky high for
Jonathan Taylor, but I just feel like it's going. Sometimes
you just have to think it's going to be what
you think that the script should be, and it's protect
Phil Rivers at all costs. He's gonna go out there
and be a quarterback tonight. But how much are they
going to actually make him pass the ball? You know,
that's the question, And as much as they don't have to,
they will. I think that Jonathan Taylor will get a
ton of carries, but I like the under on carries
for Christian McCaffrey. Just in case he just breaks off
for like a fifty yard run, it only counts as
one carry. You know, That's my favorite part about it
with these type of situations. So I do worry about
that with Semac if I can follow what I think
is going to be the case here with a high
pass offense tonight for this Sanfran team, and what you
just said that makes me feel even better about my
bet andy with him being involved in the receiving game.
But I'm going with the carries option just because if
he does break off for one or two, you know,
the number is still seventeen and a half and I'm
actually getting close to even money on the under in
this one. So we'll look for semac under on his carries.
Speaker 1: We'll move to any time touchdown and guys, first off,
thank you so much for watching a Notees holiday week.
We really appreciate you taking the time out of a
day to watch. Hopefully we can give out some winning
plays here and point in the right direction. If you could,
please do us favorite hit The like button really helps
the algorithm, and leave us comment. Tell us what's your
what's your favorite prop for tonight? Tell us if you
agree disagree, try and do it before the game. Don't
wait till after the game, and tell us what you
disagree with. Do it before the game.
Speaker 3: So like one in the morning, someone's commenting that happens
every week.
Speaker 1: We love you all, We love you all dearly, So
let's do any time touchdown Andrew and then we were
running out of time on these damn same game parlays.
But let's do anytime touchout. This one's tough. I'll throw
out Kittle at plus one oh five. I'll throw out
Tyler Warren just because I get maybe a carry around
the goal line. He can do that, and then I've
got I've got the big one here for you, Andrew
Philip Rivers at twenty to.
Speaker 2: One, Arena is he gonna fall over?
Speaker 1: It was a cute story for him starting at age
four before. How incredible would this be if they actually
get him a touchdown some kind of tush push or
broken play late. I just I could see Philip Rivers
going into the end zone and the announcers going nuts
and this being like one of the craziest things ever.
So Philip Rivers at twenty to one, that might be
worth just a just a small little sprinkle. What do
you think about any time touchdowns?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I circled Warren Kittle and then that plus four
seventy five for the not so exciting quarterback, We'll go
with Rock Praidy plus four.
Speaker 2: Seventy five for him to get in there. So those
three kind of stick out for me. Andy.
Speaker 3: We've talked about this a lot, like whether you're just
betting the props overall or you bet in the same
game part lays, Like look at the numbers here, like
minus two forty one is two hundred, like even for
Kittle is plus one point fifteen, Like like that is
a little bit frustrated to look at because let's say, like, okay,
how many how many receptions is he gonna get tonight?
Speaker 2: And how many is he gonna get in the red zone?
Speaker 3: Right, yeah, so he probably yeah, like he drops one
red zone target, you lose this bet. Like he's not
gonna get multiple I don't think like he could. But
you know that's why it's interesting to look towards these
and and you know the thing is there's that argument
where people would say, like, well, it's not a good
bet to put a plus you know, minus two hundred
in your same game parlay or something.
Speaker 2: It's like, well, you.
Speaker 3: Know, tell that to the people that bet on like
Saquon or Hurts to get a touchdown like every single
week last year, or you know when CMAC was on
that insane run. There's a reason why these guys are
these certain prices. But then you look at Kendrick Bourne
plus four twenty five and you'll see send social media.
Speaker 2: Hey hey, hey, I was that guy, you know what
I mean.
Speaker 3: But like, I'm sure those people have also lost like
hundreds of slips with guys that were plus five hundred
that didn't hit. Like someday, I'd love to see those
people that make all these crazy bets like put on
Twitter like you guys aren't gonna believe the six slips
I lost tonight on this plus five hundred, Like you
never see that.
Speaker 1: You don't get a lot of clicks for putting out
losing bag tickets Andrew.
Speaker 3: People want to tell you about that win they had
and not the six other guys they took. Like I'd
be curious if some people don't just go down the
list and just bet one hundred bucks on like every guy,
just for the social engagement in case this one guy
hit it.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: But I think the two the two tight ends do
warrant to bet tonight and then rock pretty you know what,
let's just go with both both qbs Andy, Yours is
a little bit more exciting than mine, though.
Speaker 1: All right, well, I'm not going to be putting Philip
Rivers to score rushing touchdown in our anytime touchdown our
same game parlay.
Speaker 2: So let's get really go three for four again.
Speaker 1: We yeah, all right, we do a same game parlay
every week. This shows you how how hard this is.
Adrew gets two legs. I get two legs. We have
yet to hit one this year, so we're running out
of time on a four legger. So I will go
first here, Andrew. I will start brought perty two hundred
and sixty yards passing at plus one twenty four, So
purty to have over two sixty again, just beating this
drum that the Colts you can throw all over him.
Running is gonna be a lot harder with Buckner, so
I expect Perdy to throw the ball with a lot
of success. So I'll get a starter with two hundred
and sixty passing. What's your first leg?
Speaker 3: I'll go with George Kittle sixty plus receiving yards here.
Not only bad against the pass in general, but have
consistently struggled against tight ends. And just what we've seen
from Kittle every single week, he hasn't really had any letdowns.
It's been relatively the same give or take number every
single week. Targets have been there obviously getting those receptions,
so I think he'll do well in this one. We'll
take that number I think I said on the show
seventy plus. Will take that number down to sixty for
the for the purposes of the same game parlay, I'm.
Speaker 1: Gonna move to a race to twenty points, and I'll
take the forty nine ers to get to twenty points.
I think this is gonna be a tough task for
the Colts to get a whole lot going on offense,
and I think the forty nine ers are set up
pretty pretty good on offense tonight. So I'll add forty
nine ers to be the first team to get to
twenty points tonight. Leads us to our final leg. What
are we closing out with?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I gave this out last week and
it did pretty well. Andy, We're gonna go alternate under
first half twenty four.
Speaker 1: Half twenty four and a half. All right, So to recap,
we have brought Pridy to throw two hundred and sixty
plus passing yards. We have George Kittle sixty plus receiving yards.
We have the forty nine ers first to twenty points,
and we have the under twenty four and a half
alternate total in the first half that gets us to
a crisp, clean seven to one same game parlay. We
just got to see when going this week.
Speaker 2: Man, just not that.
Speaker 3: And honestly, I know there has been some like alternative
legs that's mostly just recently throughout the season. If people
have been taking any of ours that we put in
this as, you still had success, like we're we're going
three for four, three for four, two for four, three
for four, Like I'd still say.
Speaker 2: We've hit had a pretty good clip.
Speaker 3: Like I know we've got some alternate numbers in here
the past few weeks, but we're still heading out a
decent clip. So, but we need to see a full
one go through the net.
Speaker 1: We gotta have one going. It's gonna be so disappointing
if we go the whole Christmas miracle. Well, like the
Jets still don't have an interception with like Andy and
Andrews still don't have the same game parlay winner.
Speaker 3: So and we're having great years and we're both like
at wager Talk, doing well with our picks.
Speaker 1: We can the same game parlay. All right, Andrew, one
more time, what do you have up for everyone for Monday?
Speaker 2: Night Football. Yeah, four percent. Best bet.
Speaker 3: It is a player prop here in this game Niners
and Colts. And again we're up close to twenty units
this season alone on player props in the NFL, and
if I do add anything in the NHL, it will
be a two pack of one side and one total.
Don't buy just one play, guys, get the day Pass.
We always recommend day Pass. Both Andy and I do
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Speaker 2: Guys, Happy holidays.
Speaker 3: I really appreciate everyone for watching us every single week
on this show. Andy and I have so much fun.
And let's have a great night here on Monday Night, Andy.
Speaker 1: Let's do it running the promo code Andy forty six
get you seven days for forty six bucks. Best deal
we're gonna run all year. Why not celebrate my birthday
which is tomorrow on the twenty thirty. Yes, I am
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this is our our this is our time to shine
Christmas and Birthday. So thanks very much for watching guys,
Please like leave us a comment, good luck on your
best tonight, and we'll see everyone next week. Take care,