WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.240 --> 00:00:05.120 You're listening to Bill Handle on demand from KFI AM 2 00:00:05.160 --> 00:00:10.519 six forty, KFI. 3 00:00:09.919 --> 00:00:15.519 AM six forty Live everywhere on the iHeart Radio app. 4 00:00:15.599 --> 00:00:16.120 Good Morning. 5 00:00:16.199 --> 00:00:18.760 This is the Bill Handles Show, and he is on 6 00:00:18.839 --> 00:00:22.719 holiday vacation, but he returns on Monday. I'm Wayne Resnik. 7 00:00:23.600 --> 00:00:27.120 I'm filling in till nine and I'll be here tomorrow 8 00:00:27.160 --> 00:00:32.000 and Friday, and then I am officially retired. 9 00:00:32.799 --> 00:00:33.320 Completely. 10 00:00:34.679 --> 00:00:39.719 Now we're following some stories for you here at KFI, 11 00:00:39.799 --> 00:00:44.640 and the big one today, unfortunately, is not a nice one. 12 00:00:45.640 --> 00:00:48.399 Officials at New Orleans say at least ten people have 13 00:00:48.479 --> 00:00:54.320 been killed another thirty injured when somebody intentionally drove a 14 00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:57.200 car into a large crowd of people in the French Quarter. 15 00:00:57.240 --> 00:01:01.000 People are celebrating New Year's Eve. It was about four 16 00:01:01.039 --> 00:01:05.760 am local time there. Then this person, according to many witnesses, 17 00:01:05.879 --> 00:01:08.560 and the police got out and started firing a gun. 18 00:01:09.120 --> 00:01:12.280 Police engaged him in a gunfight. 19 00:01:12.599 --> 00:01:19.239 Two cops injured, the perpetrator dead, and some reports that 20 00:01:19.280 --> 00:01:24.719 they have found improvised explosive devices in the area. There's 21 00:01:24.879 --> 00:01:30.040 a press conference that's supposed to be happening sometime around 22 00:01:30.439 --> 00:01:34.640 eight o'clock our time, and when it happens we will 23 00:01:34.840 --> 00:01:37.040 dip in and see what new information they have for 24 00:01:37.200 --> 00:01:41.079 us from this tragedy. 25 00:01:41.760 --> 00:01:43.359 This may be good news. 26 00:01:44.920 --> 00:01:49.239 Illegal border crossings dropped to a four year low in November. 27 00:01:49.640 --> 00:01:53.719 According to data from the US Customs at Border Protection Agency. 28 00:01:54.799 --> 00:02:00.000 In November forty six six and ten people were stopped 29 00:02:00.159 --> 00:02:01.719 between ports of entry. 30 00:02:02.359 --> 00:02:03.799 In other words, we have. 31 00:02:03.799 --> 00:02:08.360 Designated places where you are allowed to show up, even 32 00:02:08.400 --> 00:02:11.080 if you don't have permission to come into the country. 33 00:02:11.520 --> 00:02:14.479 You are allowed to show up at a port of 34 00:02:14.759 --> 00:02:18.319 entry and say hi, I'm here. And you can do 35 00:02:18.439 --> 00:02:22.719 this if you're requesting asylum. Hello, I'm here, I need asylum, 36 00:02:22.800 --> 00:02:26.800 and then there are processes that we go through to 37 00:02:26.960 --> 00:02:28.800 determine whether you will get the asylum. 38 00:02:29.080 --> 00:02:30.159 But if you're not at. 39 00:02:30.080 --> 00:02:32.879 One of those things, man, it's game over for you 40 00:02:34.280 --> 00:02:37.759 now it used to be, and under federal law this 41 00:02:37.800 --> 00:02:39.080 is an interesting quirk. 42 00:02:39.199 --> 00:02:40.840 Really, it doesn't. 43 00:02:40.439 --> 00:02:44.159 Matter where you are when you present yourself if you're 44 00:02:44.199 --> 00:02:48.960 looking for asylum. But what the Biden administration did, after 45 00:02:49.000 --> 00:02:56.039 getting hammered by Donald Trump and many Republicans and other 46 00:02:56.120 --> 00:03:01.000 people as well, hammered over borders urges in the first 47 00:03:01.000 --> 00:03:05.520 part of Joe Biden's administration, they adopted a carrot and 48 00:03:05.599 --> 00:03:08.439 stick approach where they tried to make. 49 00:03:08.360 --> 00:03:09.680 It easier. 50 00:03:10.680 --> 00:03:13.680 To turn yourself in at a port of entry, in 51 00:03:13.719 --> 00:03:16.840 other words, do it the correct way if you will, 52 00:03:16.919 --> 00:03:22.439 or the preferred way, and then saying if you don't, 53 00:03:22.680 --> 00:03:26.039 if you come in between ports of entry, we're gonna 54 00:03:26.039 --> 00:03:33.240 declare you're automatically ineligible for asylum. And that is probably 55 00:03:33.879 --> 00:03:36.360 what is responsible for the drop in the number of 56 00:03:36.479 --> 00:03:40.560 encounters between these ports of entry, because I guess the 57 00:03:40.599 --> 00:03:42.639 word filtered out that if you try to come in 58 00:03:42.680 --> 00:03:45.919 that way, you're never, never, never, going to get asylum. 59 00:03:47.439 --> 00:03:51.439 So that is what's happening at the national level. That's 60 00:03:51.479 --> 00:03:57.840 still a lot of people, but it's headed in the 61 00:03:58.400 --> 00:04:02.879 correct direct action. And if you are someone who really 62 00:04:02.919 --> 00:04:06.039 wants to see those numbers go down even more, then 63 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:07.599 you are in luck. 64 00:04:07.800 --> 00:04:08.479 I suppose. 65 00:04:08.560 --> 00:04:11.719 With the new administration coming in, I imagine they're going 66 00:04:11.759 --> 00:04:14.199 to be even more What they will probably do is 67 00:04:14.280 --> 00:04:15.960 keep the stick and get rid of the carrot. 68 00:04:16.800 --> 00:04:20.519 That will be my guess. In the meantime, a memo has. 69 00:04:20.439 --> 00:04:28.040 Leaked from Sacramento somewhere up there. A memo has come 70 00:04:28.079 --> 00:04:34.759 out that is a draft memo, and it's called Immigrant 71 00:04:34.839 --> 00:04:40.439 Support Network concept, and it's a game plan for how 72 00:04:40.480 --> 00:04:44.240 the state of California plans to help people who are 73 00:04:44.360 --> 00:04:51.240 here unlawfully. They're going to build regional hubs to coordinate 74 00:04:51.319 --> 00:04:56.759 support for undocumented immigrants. It'll be run by the California 75 00:04:56.839 --> 00:05:01.000 Department of Social Services, and it will help connect people 76 00:05:01.360 --> 00:05:09.439 to legal services, to unions, to their low sources. Funding 77 00:05:09.720 --> 00:05:13.560 from the Social Services Department for community outreach will be 78 00:05:13.600 --> 00:05:15.079 given to nonprofits. 79 00:05:16.040 --> 00:05:22.480 We've seen this business model before. We've seen this business model. 80 00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:25.439 Where the government gives a bunch of money to nonprofits 81 00:05:25.480 --> 00:05:29.680 to help them raise awareness of whatever the goal is. 82 00:05:30.120 --> 00:05:33.439 Most recently we've seen this with homelessness. 83 00:05:33.000 --> 00:05:38.279 And that usually does not pay off very well. So, 84 00:05:38.360 --> 00:05:42.600 in any event, this was not meant for public disclosure, 85 00:05:44.439 --> 00:05:47.279 and the deputy Public Affairs director up there at California 86 00:05:47.319 --> 00:05:50.800 Department of Social Services named Scott Murray, he says, hey, 87 00:05:51.160 --> 00:05:54.519 we haven't finalized any planned This is a draft. It 88 00:05:54.560 --> 00:05:59.040 was for internal discussion only, so let's don't yell at 89 00:05:59.079 --> 00:06:03.600 us yet. Is basically, don't yell at us yet for 90 00:06:03.639 --> 00:06:06.839 what's in this memo. If we ever release it publicly 91 00:06:06.839 --> 00:06:09.160 and it becomes the official plan, I guess then you 92 00:06:09.199 --> 00:06:13.920 can start yelling at us. Let's get some news from 93 00:06:13.959 --> 00:06:17.199 the wonderful Michael Monks and then when we come back. 94 00:06:17.879 --> 00:06:23.439 What is the secret to happiness? What even is happiness? 95 00:06:24.279 --> 00:06:27.800 Is there something specific I could tell you to do 96 00:06:28.000 --> 00:06:30.800 today that would increase your happiness? 97 00:06:31.480 --> 00:06:32.279 Nobody knows. 98 00:06:32.639 --> 00:06:38.399 However, a bunch of scientists wanna find out. I'm gonna 99 00:06:38.439 --> 00:06:43.399 tell you about this massive mega study that they have planned. 100 00:06:43.800 --> 00:06:48.040 It's KFI AM six forty Live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app. 101 00:06:48.439 --> 00:06:55.000 There are moving companies that exist. KFI AM six forty 102 00:06:55.040 --> 00:06:57.000 Live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app. 103 00:06:57.399 --> 00:06:59.079 It's the Bill Handles Show, He's back. 104 00:06:58.959 --> 00:07:02.160 From his vacation on Wayne Resnik sitting in until nine, 105 00:07:02.879 --> 00:07:05.319 and some stories that we are watching for you here 106 00:07:05.360 --> 00:07:09.040 at KFI. There is a homicide investigation underway. A guy 107 00:07:09.160 --> 00:07:15.000 was found shot dead in the city of Paramount earlier 108 00:07:15.079 --> 00:07:19.120 this morning, about two am this morning, near the seven 109 00:07:19.160 --> 00:07:21.319 ten Freeway in Rose Krantz Avenue. 110 00:07:21.360 --> 00:07:22.720 If you know where that area is. 111 00:07:23.720 --> 00:07:26.680 All we know for sure is there is a person. 112 00:07:26.800 --> 00:07:29.839 He is a man, and he is dead from a gunshot. 113 00:07:29.839 --> 00:07:33.160 We don't have other details about who he is. There's 114 00:07:33.199 --> 00:07:36.199 no description of any shooters or suspects at this time. 115 00:07:36.839 --> 00:07:39.000 If you know something about it, and we like to 116 00:07:39.040 --> 00:07:42.279 do this, but I understand the chances are almost nil, 117 00:07:42.439 --> 00:07:46.240 but they're not entirely nil that someone hearing me right 118 00:07:46.279 --> 00:07:50.439 now might know something about it. Call the homicide Bureau 119 00:07:50.480 --> 00:07:53.759 at the Sheriff's Department three two three eight nine zero 120 00:07:54.120 --> 00:07:58.279 five five zero zero, or if you want to, if 121 00:07:58.279 --> 00:08:00.000 you have some information but you don't really want to 122 00:08:00.079 --> 00:08:04.839 get involved, you can call crime Stoppers anonymously eight hundred 123 00:08:04.879 --> 00:08:09.800 two two two eight four seven seven. We are awaiting 124 00:08:09.839 --> 00:08:12.639 a press conference sometime in the next forty forty five 125 00:08:12.680 --> 00:08:16.120 minutes about the incident in New Orleans where a man 126 00:08:16.160 --> 00:08:18.360 plowed his car into a large crowd of people in 127 00:08:18.360 --> 00:08:22.079 the French Quarter, killing ten injuring thirty, got out of 128 00:08:22.079 --> 00:08:29.959 the car started shooting. He was eventually killed by police. 129 00:08:30.120 --> 00:08:33.960 Boy doesn't see with news like that, it seems, how 130 00:08:34.000 --> 00:08:37.840 are you gonna be happy? But even on a good day, 131 00:08:39.039 --> 00:08:42.559 it's tough to know what you can do to be happy. 132 00:08:43.600 --> 00:08:47.679 And the Dalai Lama goes around and says, the purpose 133 00:08:48.159 --> 00:08:52.240 of life is to be happy, thank you, except can 134 00:08:52.279 --> 00:08:53.279 you tell me how? 135 00:08:56.000 --> 00:08:56.200 No? 136 00:08:56.279 --> 00:08:59.559 He can't, so he's of no help the Dalai Lama, 137 00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:05.840 but maybe Professor Elizabeth Dunn from the University of British 138 00:09:05.879 --> 00:09:09.000 Columbia will be of some help in answering the question 139 00:09:09.120 --> 00:09:11.039 what's the secret to happiness? 140 00:09:11.600 --> 00:09:13.399 Because she's teaming up with over. 141 00:09:13.200 --> 00:09:17.720 One thousand scientists in over seventy countries and they are 142 00:09:17.720 --> 00:09:22.360 going to try to get thirty thousand volunteers minimum for 143 00:09:22.519 --> 00:09:26.720 the Global Happiness Mega Study. They're really gonna try to 144 00:09:26.799 --> 00:09:31.480 quantify practical things that you could do. 145 00:09:33.080 --> 00:09:34.600 To increase your happiness. 146 00:09:36.320 --> 00:09:38.440 So what's gonna happen is they're gonna get all these 147 00:09:38.639 --> 00:09:41.600 volunteers and they are going. 148 00:09:41.399 --> 00:09:46.720 To have them do each of them one of seven. 149 00:09:46.480 --> 00:09:52.679 Different interventions, if you will short happiness interventions. The most 150 00:09:52.679 --> 00:09:57.240 obvious example would be say taking a walk or doing 151 00:09:57.879 --> 00:10:01.919 fifteen minutes of yoga, or engaging in some kind of 152 00:10:01.960 --> 00:10:08.080 social interaction. And then I with surveys and crunching of data, 153 00:10:08.559 --> 00:10:13.519 they're going to find those activities or actions which can 154 00:10:13.559 --> 00:10:19.279 be shown to reliably increase your happiness. Now, this is 155 00:10:19.320 --> 00:10:24.159 all science, and science is supposed to be objective, but happiness. 156 00:10:25.200 --> 00:10:26.919 Is subjective. 157 00:10:29.240 --> 00:10:37.320 Joni Mitchell wants famously saying sometimes I'm happy, Sometimes I'm blue, 158 00:10:37.519 --> 00:10:39.720 I forgot the next part. My mood depends on you, 159 00:10:39.919 --> 00:10:43.399 or something like that. And there are people, by the way, 160 00:10:43.440 --> 00:10:49.360 this really complicates for me defining happiness. Usually in science, 161 00:10:49.399 --> 00:10:56.480 if you're trying to measure the effect of interventions on something, 162 00:10:57.000 --> 00:11:01.200 you define the something. So here they would start with 163 00:11:01.320 --> 00:11:06.720 some kind of scientific objective definition of happiness. Happiness looks 164 00:11:07.039 --> 00:11:11.879 different to you, to me, to anybody. In fact, you know, 165 00:11:11.960 --> 00:11:16.200 there are a lot of people who they're only happy 166 00:11:16.559 --> 00:11:21.320 when they're mad, or they're only happy when they're sad. 167 00:11:22.120 --> 00:11:23.960 I don't know if people. 168 00:11:24.080 --> 00:11:26.799 I guess I'm speaking about myself here, but I don't 169 00:11:26.799 --> 00:11:31.519 think I'm that weird. I don't know if people themselves 170 00:11:31.559 --> 00:11:34.279 can ever say in any given moment if they're happy 171 00:11:34.360 --> 00:11:36.919 or not. There's certain moments in your life when clearly 172 00:11:37.200 --> 00:11:39.279 you are happy and you feel happy, and if someone 173 00:11:39.320 --> 00:11:40.639 said are you happy right now? 174 00:11:40.919 --> 00:11:42.039 You would say, I'm happy. 175 00:11:42.039 --> 00:11:47.399 But a lot of times you don't even know, are 176 00:11:47.440 --> 00:11:52.080 am I happy right now? They've tried this before, but 177 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:55.759 not to this scale, not this rigorously. Harvard one of 178 00:11:55.759 --> 00:11:58.240 the most famous studies on happiness was out of Harvard, 179 00:11:58.759 --> 00:12:01.720 where they followed to twoe hundred and sixty eight men 180 00:12:02.279 --> 00:12:05.240 who went into Harvard over the period of the late 181 00:12:05.320 --> 00:12:09.320 nineteen thirties, and they followed their lives, and that was 182 00:12:09.360 --> 00:12:12.440 the study that said, and you've heard this people this. 183 00:12:12.519 --> 00:12:15.519 Anytime anybody talks about happiness, they bring up this study. 184 00:12:16.120 --> 00:12:19.720 You know, you know what's important for happiness. It's not 185 00:12:19.879 --> 00:12:27.159 the money, it's not fame. It's having close relationships, and 186 00:12:27.279 --> 00:12:30.879 not only that, but having close relationships. 187 00:12:30.279 --> 00:12:31.159 You live longer. 188 00:12:32.440 --> 00:12:34.519 And that may be all well and good for these 189 00:12:34.559 --> 00:12:36.799 two hundred and sixty eight men. The thing about it 190 00:12:36.840 --> 00:12:39.360 is it's kind of a it's kind of a useless 191 00:12:39.360 --> 00:12:43.039 study because they were all the same kind of people. 192 00:12:44.240 --> 00:12:48.320 They were all white guys from well to do families. 193 00:12:48.399 --> 00:12:51.519 People like this is true some of the people who 194 00:12:51.519 --> 00:12:52.759 were in this study. 195 00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:54.440 John F. 196 00:12:54.519 --> 00:12:57.240 Kennedy, who would go on to be president, and Ben Bradley, 197 00:12:57.240 --> 00:12:58.759 who would go on to be the editor of the 198 00:12:58.840 --> 00:13:03.399 Washington Post. So when you have a group that's that 199 00:13:03.799 --> 00:13:06.559 is that homogeneous, it's not gonna help anybody, because guess what, 200 00:13:06.720 --> 00:13:10.879 not everybody is that. So this study is trying to 201 00:13:10.879 --> 00:13:15.799 get people from all genders, nationalities, generations, all of it, 202 00:13:17.000 --> 00:13:20.000 so that the results should. 203 00:13:19.639 --> 00:13:23.120 Be applicable no matter who you are. 204 00:13:26.039 --> 00:13:31.320 It's it's the only study I've ever seen that seems 205 00:13:31.360 --> 00:13:35.879 like it at least has a possibility of getting some answers. 206 00:13:36.240 --> 00:13:37.720 It's still got a flaw. 207 00:13:39.080 --> 00:13:44.600 Which is they they've identified seven specific interventions that they're 208 00:13:44.600 --> 00:13:45.159 going to test. 209 00:13:45.240 --> 00:13:48.799 And you know, how many things are there in life? 210 00:13:49.440 --> 00:13:51.799 How many things could you do today? 211 00:13:52.159 --> 00:13:54.799 How many things are out in the world that affect 212 00:13:54.840 --> 00:13:59.480 your life that might be relevant to whether or not 213 00:13:59.519 --> 00:14:03.960 you're happy, and that you could try to manipulate to 214 00:14:04.039 --> 00:14:06.519 be happier. You know, how do we know there's not 215 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:11.799 something about how many particulates are in the air that 216 00:14:11.879 --> 00:14:14.360 affect your happiness, And so if you really wanted to 217 00:14:14.399 --> 00:14:16.360 be happy, you would have to move to a place 218 00:14:16.440 --> 00:14:19.559 with really clean air. So they still are only gonna 219 00:14:19.559 --> 00:14:21.759 be able to test a small part of what it 220 00:14:21.840 --> 00:14:24.919 is to be alive. But at least they're going to 221 00:14:25.000 --> 00:14:26.879 do it with a ton of people, and they got 222 00:14:26.879 --> 00:14:30.320 a bunch of scientists, and they're gonna have meticulous records, 223 00:14:30.519 --> 00:14:34.559 and they're gonna have the best, you know, data crunching 224 00:14:34.600 --> 00:14:39.080 algorithms that money can buy. And I am curious to 225 00:14:39.120 --> 00:14:40.840 see what those results are. It's not going to be 226 00:14:40.840 --> 00:14:42.919 for a while, and undertaking this big is going to 227 00:14:42.960 --> 00:14:46.440 take a very long time, and that makes me unhappy. 228 00:14:47.559 --> 00:14:49.360 So hurry up, guys. 229 00:14:50.120 --> 00:14:52.440 Now, let's get some news from Michael Monks. And then 230 00:14:52.799 --> 00:14:56.159 with all the talk about how President elect Donald Trump 231 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:59.720 is big on tariffs and the different arguments that take 232 00:14:59.720 --> 00:15:02.240 place about what are tariffs and does he understand what 233 00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:06.039 tariffs are? And is it really gonna work or is 234 00:15:06.039 --> 00:15:08.720 it just going to cause inflation? Here's the thing. There's 235 00:15:08.759 --> 00:15:15.120 another there's another angle here, which is what if the countries. 236 00:15:15.440 --> 00:15:17.399 Find a way around them. 237 00:15:17.919 --> 00:15:21.279 What if you imposed tariffs and nobody had to pay 238 00:15:21.360 --> 00:15:25.240 them because they were too clever. That's what I'm gonna 239 00:15:25.240 --> 00:15:28.039 talk about next right here on KFI AM six forty 240 00:15:28.440 --> 00:15:31.240 Live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app. 241 00:15:32.000 --> 00:15:35.840 You're listening to Bill Handle on demand from KFI AM 242 00:15:35.879 --> 00:15:36.799 six forty. 243 00:15:38.399 --> 00:15:42.720 KFI AM six forty Live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app. 244 00:15:43.120 --> 00:15:46.759 Good morning, It's the Bill Handles Show. Wayne Resnik sitting 245 00:15:46.759 --> 00:15:50.159 in Bill's back from his vacation. On Monday, we are 246 00:15:50.279 --> 00:15:54.759 expecting a a news conference in New Orleans about the 247 00:15:54.799 --> 00:15:58.600 incident overnight where somebody plowed their car into a bunch 248 00:15:58.639 --> 00:16:02.440 of people in the French quarter. Ten killed, thirty injured. 249 00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:06.480 The perpetrator taken out by the cops in a in 250 00:16:06.559 --> 00:16:09.480 a gunfight because he came out of the car and 251 00:16:09.519 --> 00:16:14.440 started shooting a gun. And when that news conference happens, 252 00:16:15.320 --> 00:16:17.080 we're gonna We're gonna take it now. 253 00:16:17.240 --> 00:16:18.000 I'll tell you right now. 254 00:16:18.039 --> 00:16:19.840 I don't think it's happening till nine. I just saw 255 00:16:19.840 --> 00:16:22.480 an update. Oh not till nine now, okay, Well then 256 00:16:22.559 --> 00:16:26.440 that will be all right. Well that'll be somebody else's 257 00:16:26.480 --> 00:16:30.720 issue to deal with. Thank you, Michelle. Some other stories 258 00:16:30.720 --> 00:16:32.120 that we're watching for you. 259 00:16:33.399 --> 00:16:36.720 Oh yeah, we're only about a little less than half 260 00:16:36.759 --> 00:16:38.759 an hour away from the start of the one hundred 261 00:16:38.759 --> 00:16:44.200 and thirty sixth the annual Rose Parade, that historic five 262 00:16:44.240 --> 00:16:48.799 and a half mile route floats will start at Orange 263 00:16:48.840 --> 00:16:49.759 Grove Boulevard. 264 00:16:49.879 --> 00:16:53.200 I love they have the whole route in here. Listen, nobody. 265 00:16:53.240 --> 00:16:54.679 I don't need to read the whole route to you. 266 00:16:54.840 --> 00:16:57.399 Everybody knows the route goes up Colorado Boulevard. 267 00:16:57.840 --> 00:17:01.559 That's roads are clut Look, here's the thing. Obviously roads 268 00:17:01.559 --> 00:17:05.160 are closed over there near the parade. Don't go over 269 00:17:05.200 --> 00:17:07.839 there unless you're gonna go to watch the parade. If 270 00:17:07.880 --> 00:17:09.960 you're going for some other reason, you're going to be 271 00:17:10.319 --> 00:17:14.039 a very angry puppy. But they say the roads and 272 00:17:14.079 --> 00:17:19.240 traffic should be back to normal by two o'clock this afternoon. 273 00:17:20.000 --> 00:17:24.200 And then guess what else happens the Rose Bowl game 274 00:17:24.279 --> 00:17:25.400 Ohio State v. 275 00:17:25.839 --> 00:17:30.920 Oregon. That should be a good all right, we'll see. 276 00:17:32.319 --> 00:17:35.920 All right, let's talk about this President elect Donald Trump 277 00:17:37.359 --> 00:17:39.400 wants to put a bunch of tariffs. I'm going to 278 00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:43.200 talk specifically about China right now. China's not the only 279 00:17:43.240 --> 00:17:48.559 country that he's talking about, but China is a makes 280 00:17:48.599 --> 00:17:53.039 a point about what we might expect as to the 281 00:17:53.119 --> 00:17:56.799 success of tariffs imposed by the new administration. 282 00:17:58.319 --> 00:18:00.640 So here's a little story for you. Mm hmm. 283 00:18:01.960 --> 00:18:07.960 In twenty eighteen, there was a president and his name 284 00:18:08.000 --> 00:18:14.200 was Donald J. Trump, and there was a country called China. Kids, 285 00:18:15.799 --> 00:18:19.200 and in China, amongst all the other things they made, 286 00:18:19.400 --> 00:18:25.640 they made bicycles. And this president, Donald J. Trump slapped 287 00:18:25.680 --> 00:18:29.279 some tariffs on these Chinese bicycles. He didn't fly over 288 00:18:29.319 --> 00:18:34.160 there and slapped the bicycles, but he imposed stiff tariffs 289 00:18:34.359 --> 00:18:40.160 on these bicycles twenty five percent. So if you're a 290 00:18:40.279 --> 00:18:44.440 seller of bicycles, in the United States and you want 291 00:18:44.440 --> 00:18:50.119 to import bicycles from China, you're gonna have to pay 292 00:18:50.160 --> 00:18:53.119 a twenty five percent tariff in addition to whatever you 293 00:18:53.200 --> 00:18:54.000 have to pay. 294 00:18:53.920 --> 00:18:54.519 For the bike. 295 00:18:55.039 --> 00:18:58.440 And the idea was, that'll teach China to make a 296 00:18:58.480 --> 00:19:02.480 bunch of bikes and send them to us. And then 297 00:19:02.519 --> 00:19:07.000 here's what happened. China said, Oh, here's what we're gonna do. 298 00:19:07.759 --> 00:19:12.119 We look at the rules of the tariffs. Okay, we'll 299 00:19:12.160 --> 00:19:17.319 take the final assembly of these bikes, and we won't 300 00:19:17.319 --> 00:19:26.079 do it in China. We'll open facilities in Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Cambodia. 301 00:19:26.279 --> 00:19:27.000 And then guess what. 302 00:19:28.079 --> 00:19:34.039 Now, those bikes no tariff. They are Chinese bikes, the 303 00:19:34.079 --> 00:19:37.839 parts are Chinese. They were largely still made in China, 304 00:19:38.319 --> 00:19:41.119 but because of the way tariff rules were, because the 305 00:19:41.160 --> 00:19:44.000 final assembly was in a different country, they weren't subject 306 00:19:44.039 --> 00:19:47.799 to the tariff in the first place. And there's a 307 00:19:47.799 --> 00:19:52.319 guy named Arnold Kamler. He's the chief executive of a 308 00:19:52.400 --> 00:20:00.000 bike company called Kent International, and he said, what happened 309 00:20:00.079 --> 00:20:05.799 and the result of the tariffs was not an increase 310 00:20:05.960 --> 00:20:11.359 in domestic production of bicycles. The net effect of the 311 00:20:11.480 --> 00:20:16.480 terraffs was that Chinese factories and China set up Chinese 312 00:20:16.480 --> 00:20:24.759 factories in other countries. That's what happened, and that is 313 00:20:24.960 --> 00:20:30.480 likely to happen again if tariffs are put on goods 314 00:20:30.480 --> 00:20:35.240 from China other countries. I'm not talking about them because 315 00:20:35.319 --> 00:20:37.480 number one, I don't have a nice story for you 316 00:20:37.559 --> 00:20:42.440 about how another country evaded terriffs. And also China can 317 00:20:42.480 --> 00:20:46.119 do it because it's such a big country and they 318 00:20:46.160 --> 00:20:49.880 do everything at such scale. It does cost money to 319 00:20:50.079 --> 00:20:55.519 move part of your manufacturing to another country. It's less 320 00:20:55.559 --> 00:20:59.680 expensive than I guess whatever happens to your manufacturing with 321 00:20:59.759 --> 00:21:04.319 these big tariffs. But smaller countries subject to terrafts wouldn't 322 00:21:04.359 --> 00:21:08.319 necessarily be able to make these moves. But also other 323 00:21:08.400 --> 00:21:12.119 countries subject to terrifts, perhaps Mexico for example. 324 00:21:12.599 --> 00:21:15.519 Aren't really the target. 325 00:21:17.359 --> 00:21:22.240 This is really a battle between the United States and China, 326 00:21:22.440 --> 00:21:25.960 and so it's what China can or can't do that's 327 00:21:26.000 --> 00:21:26.680 gonna matter. 328 00:21:29.400 --> 00:21:32.160 Some Chinese companies just moved. 329 00:21:31.960 --> 00:21:37.680 Their factories to other parts of Asia or even Latin America, 330 00:21:37.839 --> 00:21:39.880 so it's the same Chinese product. 331 00:21:40.200 --> 00:21:42.599 Basically, it takes the long. 332 00:21:42.400 --> 00:21:46.440 Way around the world to come into the United States. 333 00:21:46.839 --> 00:21:52.880 And it does not produce a tariff. What are the 334 00:21:53.000 --> 00:21:56.400 purposes of the tariff? What are you trying to do? 335 00:21:56.680 --> 00:22:01.240 There's actually two reasons. The I believe this is the 336 00:22:01.319 --> 00:22:05.599 reason that President elect Trump is talking about, which is 337 00:22:05.880 --> 00:22:09.519 there's a competition tariff. This is where what you're trying 338 00:22:09.519 --> 00:22:16.240 to do is you're trying to punish foreign makers who 339 00:22:16.559 --> 00:22:20.640 undercut the marketplace and ship a bunch of cheap crap 340 00:22:20.680 --> 00:22:24.200 to the United States. Although remember, you know, we make 341 00:22:24.240 --> 00:22:27.799 it sound like there's a guy in China who wakes 342 00:22:27.880 --> 00:22:31.519 up and he goes today, Today, I shall ship ten 343 00:22:31.599 --> 00:22:36.200 thousand cheap bicycles to the United States, flooding the market 344 00:22:36.240 --> 00:22:40.240 with cheap bicycles and making it impossible for US bike 345 00:22:40.400 --> 00:22:43.519 manufacturers to compete. But you're not going to get up 346 00:22:43.559 --> 00:22:47.119 and send ten thousand bicycles to another country just because 347 00:22:48.359 --> 00:22:52.880 let's keep in mind that we are part of this equation. 348 00:22:54.359 --> 00:22:57.279 That guy wakes up and he sends ten thousand cheap 349 00:22:57.319 --> 00:23:01.359 bicycles to somebody here in the United States who asked 350 00:23:01.359 --> 00:23:10.359 for them. So in any event, the idea is, well, 351 00:23:10.799 --> 00:23:16.000 they won't be cheap because there's let's say, a twenty 352 00:23:16.039 --> 00:23:20.519 five percent additional cost to bring in a cheap bicycle 353 00:23:20.559 --> 00:23:25.000 from China, which means really a tariff is a punish. 354 00:23:25.160 --> 00:23:28.200 It's not a punishment against China. 355 00:23:28.400 --> 00:23:32.359 It's a punishment against American businesses who are. 356 00:23:32.319 --> 00:23:35.000 Importing stuff from China. 357 00:23:35.480 --> 00:23:39.039 It's basically saying, we're gonna make it more expensive for you, 358 00:23:39.559 --> 00:23:44.440 some distributor in the United States to sell cheap Chinese 359 00:23:44.480 --> 00:23:48.640 bikes instead of more expensive American bikes. But the idea 360 00:23:48.880 --> 00:23:53.839 is to prop up and protect the American in this case, 361 00:23:53.920 --> 00:24:04.359 bicycle makers by making the competition less robust. Well, if 362 00:24:04.400 --> 00:24:08.839 the Chinese bike makers find ways around the tariffs, then 363 00:24:08.960 --> 00:24:13.119 you can't accomplish your goal. There's another kind of tariff. 364 00:24:13.160 --> 00:24:16.160 It's actually a revenue tariff. It's not really designed to 365 00:24:17.240 --> 00:24:21.240 help American companies compete. It's really designed just to raise 366 00:24:21.279 --> 00:24:24.200 money for the American government. And they have been used 367 00:24:24.640 --> 00:24:29.400 in the history of this government. And I know that 368 00:24:29.559 --> 00:24:33.079 President elect Trump has talked about not as much as 369 00:24:33.079 --> 00:24:36.960 he's talked about, you know, dinging these countries for their 370 00:24:37.039 --> 00:24:40.680 cheap goods with tariffs, even though that's not what happens. 371 00:24:41.240 --> 00:24:44.000 He's also mentioned a few times that maybe we won't 372 00:24:44.039 --> 00:24:46.400 have an income tax anymore because we'll raise so much 373 00:24:46.400 --> 00:24:49.160 money from tariffs. So he's I don't know if he's 374 00:24:49.200 --> 00:24:54.680 talking about one set of protective tariffs and another different 375 00:24:54.920 --> 00:25:01.559 set of revenue tariffs, or he's he's thinking these terraffs 376 00:25:01.599 --> 00:25:04.319 will be both kinds of tariffs at the same time. 377 00:25:04.720 --> 00:25:06.799 It's a it's a what was that skit? It's a 378 00:25:06.799 --> 00:25:10.640 floor wax and a dessert topping from Saturday Night Live, 379 00:25:10.720 --> 00:25:15.160 some product two in one. But here's the thing, So 380 00:25:15.319 --> 00:25:18.079 that discussion, what is it? Do they work? Who's really 381 00:25:18.160 --> 00:25:25.279 paying it? It almost it's irrelevant if they're not being paid. 382 00:25:25.559 --> 00:25:30.480 And China has is already pretty dang good at adjusting 383 00:25:30.519 --> 00:25:35.000 how they do business, and right now in China they 384 00:25:35.000 --> 00:25:37.440 are at least three big companies. 385 00:25:37.480 --> 00:25:39.960 There may be more, but there's at least three big ones. 386 00:25:40.960 --> 00:25:46.799 Their business is helping Chinese companies find factory space in 387 00:25:46.960 --> 00:25:53.000 Mexico and hire workers in Mexico so that they'll have 388 00:25:53.119 --> 00:25:56.039 a base to make things and send them to the 389 00:25:56.119 --> 00:25:57.640 United States and not pay teriffs. 390 00:26:00.400 --> 00:26:01.720 One of their ads says. 391 00:26:01.519 --> 00:26:07.559 Seize the opportunity in Mexico and sees the market. So 392 00:26:07.640 --> 00:26:10.519 if we're gonna argue about tarras, let's first argue about 393 00:26:10.519 --> 00:26:13.039 how are we gonna make it so the tariffs have 394 00:26:13.119 --> 00:26:17.559 to be paid otherwise there's no point. Let's get some 395 00:26:17.640 --> 00:26:20.880 news from Michael Monks and then this trend. Now, look, 396 00:26:20.920 --> 00:26:22.000 I'm not upset about this. 397 00:26:22.400 --> 00:26:25.039 I don't. I don't, I don't. I don't understand it. 398 00:26:25.039 --> 00:26:27.400 It's not for me. I'm not mad about it. 399 00:26:27.680 --> 00:26:32.359 But there's a big trend going on, particularly amongst gen 400 00:26:32.640 --> 00:26:37.440 z and it makes my feet hurt just reading about it. 401 00:26:37.599 --> 00:26:38.519