WEBVTT 1 00:00:07.440 --> 00:00:09.960 We are back here on the XRP podcast and joining me, 2 00:00:10.000 --> 00:00:12.439 of course, is Stephen McClure coming in from Canary Capital. 3 00:00:12.480 --> 00:00:14.679 Today we're going to break down a lot on clarity 4 00:00:15.000 --> 00:00:17.519 what's going on in the ETFs. We also i'll talk 5 00:00:17.559 --> 00:00:19.719 a little bit about the thirty year yield. This is 6 00:00:19.719 --> 00:00:21.719 starting to shake things up. You guys want to stick 7 00:00:21.760 --> 00:00:25.079 around for that. And where will bitcoin and ethereum be 8 00:00:26.120 --> 00:00:26.800 over the summer? 9 00:00:26.800 --> 00:00:27.760 Are we going to see a big move? 10 00:00:27.760 --> 00:00:29.120 Before you get into it, I do want to thank 11 00:00:29.160 --> 00:00:32.759 our sponsor and this is a special offer for you guys. 12 00:00:32.880 --> 00:00:36.320 Okx is running an exclusive affiliate offer where you can 13 00:00:36.399 --> 00:00:39.200 earn up to five hundred dollars in XRP rewards just 14 00:00:39.240 --> 00:00:43.240 by hitting a few simple milestones. Step one, Tier one, 15 00:00:43.479 --> 00:00:46.799 you can complete the KYC you get ten dollars in XRP. 16 00:00:47.560 --> 00:00:49.520 If you go to step two, which is one hundred 17 00:00:49.560 --> 00:00:52.719 dollars on a deposit, you get another forty. 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There's a 30 00:01:28.480 --> 00:01:32.680 few things that have been brewing, and I think one 31 00:01:32.719 --> 00:01:35.000 of the biggest issues that we are facing right now. 32 00:01:35.040 --> 00:01:37.519 I put out a tweet this morning. Actually I want 33 00:01:37.519 --> 00:01:40.719 to showcase this first because I think this is more 34 00:01:41.640 --> 00:01:45.239 more important is the fact that we saw a very 35 00:01:45.480 --> 00:01:51.480 big move happen right here, and it kind of I 36 00:01:51.719 --> 00:01:54.239 was surprised by this. So gold sackx liquidates there one 37 00:01:54.280 --> 00:01:57.560 hundred and fifty four million dollar XRP position, they pivot 38 00:01:57.640 --> 00:02:02.000 to hyper Liquids Treasury. But there was also a liquidation 39 00:02:02.200 --> 00:02:05.840 of Salona in this one as well. So when you 40 00:02:06.040 --> 00:02:09.240 is this normal for major institutions to do these kind 41 00:02:09.240 --> 00:02:12.080 of moves where they just literally go from one to another. 42 00:02:12.439 --> 00:02:13.840 Is this something you see all the time. 43 00:02:14.360 --> 00:02:18.280 Well yet, yes and no, it can be So I 44 00:02:18.319 --> 00:02:23.400 don't know which ETF that Goldman Sachs liquidated, you know, 45 00:02:23.520 --> 00:02:28.360 haven't looked at the data on where inflows possibly happened 46 00:02:28.439 --> 00:02:33.680 last week. It wasn't our ETF. We've had pretty pretty 47 00:02:33.680 --> 00:02:36.879 steady inflows for the last few weeks with no outflows, 48 00:02:36.919 --> 00:02:40.680 so that's been great. But the way that a lot 49 00:02:40.680 --> 00:02:44.400 of organizations work is they might seed an ETF, yeah, 50 00:02:44.439 --> 00:02:47.039 and then when a new ETF comes out, they pull 51 00:02:47.120 --> 00:02:49.639 the seed to move it over to the other one. Yeah, 52 00:02:49.719 --> 00:02:53.560 that's one possible explanation. I've been watching this with a 53 00:02:53.599 --> 00:02:57.439 couple of other ETFs that have been coming out, where 54 00:02:57.520 --> 00:02:59.719 it gets seeded and then two weeks later the seed 55 00:02:59.719 --> 00:03:02.080 gets and then it moves to the next one. Yeah, 56 00:03:02.159 --> 00:03:05.199 So it's not something that we do, but there are 57 00:03:05.360 --> 00:03:07.520 other ETF issues that will do this. 58 00:03:07.800 --> 00:03:10.960 But again case, but that's what theirs. 59 00:03:10.719 --> 00:03:13.520 Was a little different because it was distributed across several funds. 60 00:03:13.520 --> 00:03:17.639 You'll see here in the article. It was in Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin, 61 00:03:17.639 --> 00:03:21.400 Templeton and twenty one Share so this was in their 62 00:03:21.439 --> 00:03:24.840 thirteen F filing. So that's happened but at the same 63 00:03:24.919 --> 00:03:28.759 time we're hearing rumors. And this is the thing that's 64 00:03:28.800 --> 00:03:31.479 a little unusual to me. I'll show you this one, 65 00:03:32.039 --> 00:03:35.360 and that is Citadel is reportedly investing another one point 66 00:03:35.400 --> 00:03:38.639 seven mil. That's not much, but it is putting money 67 00:03:38.639 --> 00:03:43.719 into an XRP ETF potentially. Why do you see one 68 00:03:43.879 --> 00:03:48.360 major moving out and another one start to dabble into this. 69 00:03:48.599 --> 00:03:51.039 Is this a commonality that we see in Wall Street? 70 00:03:51.080 --> 00:03:52.560 Now? Yeah? 71 00:03:52.639 --> 00:03:56.319 I mean, and again, each each group has different reasons 72 00:03:56.400 --> 00:04:01.960 why they're investing or or taking chips off the table. 73 00:04:02.719 --> 00:04:05.680 In the case of Goldman, my guess is it's probably 74 00:04:06.159 --> 00:04:10.319 again seed capital that they're moving to another product. Citadel 75 00:04:10.800 --> 00:04:15.240 isn't necessarily the same type of shop, and they're probably 76 00:04:15.240 --> 00:04:20.199 seeing a basis trade. Again, I don't know, I'm speculating here, Yeah, 77 00:04:20.240 --> 00:04:24.079 but Citadel might see a basis opportunity an XRP, which, 78 00:04:24.160 --> 00:04:26.360 by the way, we see a pretty good basis trade 79 00:04:26.360 --> 00:04:29.560 here as well. So it doesn't shock me that you know, 80 00:04:29.560 --> 00:04:34.600 they're using their prop desks to potentially trade basis. 81 00:04:34.839 --> 00:04:38.600 Yeah, so interesting move there. You can see right here 82 00:04:38.720 --> 00:04:43.800 Coitdas reported, xrp's ETF pulled in sixty million in net 83 00:04:43.839 --> 00:04:48.439 inflows last week, this was the strongest weekly performance for 84 00:04:48.639 --> 00:04:56.920 twenty twenty six, inflows to one point thirty nine billion overall. 85 00:04:57.040 --> 00:05:00.319 When you look at the accumulative inflows, where do you 86 00:05:00.319 --> 00:05:01.800 think this will be at the end of the year. 87 00:05:03.480 --> 00:05:06.879 That's that's a tough one because you know, you also 88 00:05:06.920 --> 00:05:10.319 have to look at the market. I believe that XRP 89 00:05:10.439 --> 00:05:13.680 could probably double in price by the end of the year. 90 00:05:14.439 --> 00:05:17.279 So from that it is today oh yeah, yeah, And 91 00:05:17.680 --> 00:05:21.879 that's that's definitely a factor. And the second factor is 92 00:05:21.920 --> 00:05:26.959 of course growing interest. You know, I do believe the 93 00:05:26.959 --> 00:05:30.439 summer is going to be a tough summer for equities 94 00:05:30.480 --> 00:05:33.879 and crypto across the board once we go into the 95 00:05:34.279 --> 00:05:38.879 midterm election season, and then after midterms, that's when I 96 00:05:38.920 --> 00:05:43.120 believe that you'll see a lot more influence coming in 97 00:05:43.120 --> 00:05:46.240 into the ETF. So I think in addition to the 98 00:05:46.279 --> 00:05:50.439 double in price, we also probably see a thirty percent 99 00:05:50.519 --> 00:05:53.199 increase in interest by the end of the year as well. 100 00:05:53.680 --> 00:05:57.519 So that being drawn in just because of what we 101 00:05:57.600 --> 00:06:02.240 are seeing in general, token is security RWAs moving on. 102 00:06:02.399 --> 00:06:07.000 This of course rises the interest of institutional maybe clarity, 103 00:06:07.040 --> 00:06:09.759 which we'll talk about in a second. Do you think 104 00:06:09.800 --> 00:06:12.480 all of that comes together as just a nice cocktail 105 00:06:12.480 --> 00:06:15.319 and that's driving interest. Well, what do you think it 106 00:06:15.399 --> 00:06:18.439 is or is there something completely more macro oriented here? 107 00:06:19.360 --> 00:06:21.720 Yeah, I mean a lot of my statement came because 108 00:06:21.759 --> 00:06:26.160 of macro okay, but but but also clarity is important too. 109 00:06:26.639 --> 00:06:30.839 One of the important features of the XRP Ledger is 110 00:06:32.160 --> 00:06:35.800 r w a's and stable coins, and clarity will certainly 111 00:06:35.879 --> 00:06:40.199 help promote that network. You know, if you're asking me 112 00:06:40.399 --> 00:06:43.199 who the top five chains are that are going to 113 00:06:43.279 --> 00:06:47.959 win in tokenization, the XRP Ledger is definitely in the 114 00:06:48.000 --> 00:06:49.360 top five top five. 115 00:06:49.439 --> 00:06:50.639 Who else would you put in there? 116 00:06:51.879 --> 00:06:54.839 Like? I like Suee a lot, Okay, I think that 117 00:06:54.879 --> 00:06:57.319 they're they're they're a great team, They're doing some really 118 00:06:57.319 --> 00:07:03.639 interesting things. I like in j I like SCI. I 119 00:07:03.720 --> 00:07:06.040 think I think all of those are are are are 120 00:07:06.120 --> 00:07:10.480 really good spots for tokenization. And then HBAR is kind 121 00:07:10.480 --> 00:07:14.600 of unique as well, where they won't they won't necessarily 122 00:07:14.639 --> 00:07:18.279 win in my opinion on the what what people traditionally 123 00:07:18.279 --> 00:07:23.040 think about tokenization, but more enterprise data, which you know, 124 00:07:23.079 --> 00:07:26.839 you can tokenize the data it's it's itself, and I. 125 00:07:26.839 --> 00:07:29.120 Think that's going to be a really interesting prospect. 126 00:07:29.360 --> 00:07:33.639 Well, and in in tokenized data, you're you're or I 127 00:07:33.639 --> 00:07:37.079 should say, in tokenize tokenization, I think we're going to 128 00:07:37.160 --> 00:07:39.480 see a lot of use cases that a lot of 129 00:07:39.519 --> 00:07:44.759 people just did not have the capacity to imagine what 130 00:07:44.800 --> 00:07:47.399 that innovation is going to affect in terms of where 131 00:07:47.480 --> 00:07:48.120 markets will go. 132 00:07:48.240 --> 00:07:49.639 So I would agree with you. 133 00:07:49.720 --> 00:07:51.800 I think there's a lot of interesting points. I'm still 134 00:07:51.959 --> 00:07:56.160 stuck on this point of you thinking that XRP doubles 135 00:07:56.920 --> 00:07:59.079 by year end. I mean, you're it's running at one 136 00:07:59.160 --> 00:08:03.199 thirty seven after two pre significant days or this morning. 137 00:08:03.199 --> 00:08:04.480 It's been down over. 138 00:08:04.360 --> 00:08:07.279 The last couple hours, but over the last couple of 139 00:08:07.360 --> 00:08:12.279 days it has been trending down, and that would be 140 00:08:12.319 --> 00:08:15.319 a big move to double from here up to two sixty. 141 00:08:15.480 --> 00:08:19.199 So that was after, of course, we saw you know, 142 00:08:19.439 --> 00:08:24.360 continued macro pressure both off the China trip from Trump, 143 00:08:24.399 --> 00:08:26.839 but also just in general not getting out of Iran, 144 00:08:26.920 --> 00:08:28.040 which I think is a big deal. 145 00:08:28.759 --> 00:08:32.480 Yeah, I mean that there are some big variables out there. Yeah, 146 00:08:32.799 --> 00:08:35.519 and Iran is a very big variable. 147 00:08:35.639 --> 00:08:42.240 So everything, the Clarity Act gets through the Senate fifteen 148 00:08:42.279 --> 00:08:45.200 to nine. The Committee, I shouldn't say the Senate gets 149 00:08:45.200 --> 00:08:49.159 through the Committee. The Banking Committee fifteen to nine, and 150 00:08:49.240 --> 00:08:52.240 it's getting ready to go into the Senate. Now if 151 00:08:52.240 --> 00:08:55.320 it goes in here shortly, A sixteen Z is over 152 00:08:55.360 --> 00:08:58.000 here saying, you know, listen, we think this thing is 153 00:08:58.039 --> 00:09:02.519 going to really create a whole new domestic boom for 154 00:09:02.679 --> 00:09:08.200 innovation and possibly affect the global markets, which I would 155 00:09:08.240 --> 00:09:11.519 agree with the genius that that does kind of set 156 00:09:11.559 --> 00:09:15.360 a little bit of a tone. What area do you think? Well, 157 00:09:15.360 --> 00:09:19.720 first of all, let's talk about your percentage now for 158 00:09:19.879 --> 00:09:23.320 passage in twenty twenty six. Where are you today? 159 00:09:25.039 --> 00:09:27.559 Probably closer to ninety percent, And I know that's your feeling. 160 00:09:27.720 --> 00:09:33.000 Oh wow, okay, yeah, so you're feeling very good about this. 161 00:09:33.679 --> 00:09:37.360 Clearly A sixteen disease is setting on a position where 162 00:09:37.399 --> 00:09:39.480 they think this is going to go through. I am 163 00:09:39.600 --> 00:09:44.399 still concerned that the ethics issue is going to stall this. 164 00:09:44.799 --> 00:09:46.360 You're not as much concerned about that. 165 00:09:47.159 --> 00:09:50.120 No, I mean, what's what's come, What's what's happened since 166 00:09:50.279 --> 00:09:52.840 the last time we spoke, and when I was the 167 00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:55.960 opposite side of that, you were on the other side. Yes, 168 00:09:56.679 --> 00:09:59.960 you've got two political parties right now that are death 169 00:10:00.080 --> 00:10:03.919 spertly trying to win Congress in any way that they can, 170 00:10:04.679 --> 00:10:08.840 and making crypto a dividing factor isn't. 171 00:10:09.080 --> 00:10:09.840 A great idea. 172 00:10:10.399 --> 00:10:15.120 So you know, the Republicans are really coming from a 173 00:10:15.159 --> 00:10:17.360 place of weakness. They're they're obviously going to have to 174 00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:20.480 vote for it, even if there's a few dissenters, right. 175 00:10:20.559 --> 00:10:23.440 And then the Democrats, you know, they want they want 176 00:10:23.440 --> 00:10:26.159 to win both houses so bad that they don't want 177 00:10:26.600 --> 00:10:29.360 it's used to be in their way, despite the fact 178 00:10:29.399 --> 00:10:31.279 that you have the bank lobbyists trying to trying to 179 00:10:31.279 --> 00:10:33.840 shut it down. But at the end of the day, 180 00:10:33.840 --> 00:10:35.480 it's the voters that matter, and you know. 181 00:10:35.679 --> 00:10:39.320 Anything to fact that, the fact that it made it 182 00:10:39.440 --> 00:10:44.440 through the committee. When you look at the Centate Banking Committee, 183 00:10:44.440 --> 00:10:50.000 that was a very strong mm hmm process that we 184 00:10:50.039 --> 00:10:54.559 went through for six months literally between the ABA, all 185 00:10:54.600 --> 00:10:59.080 the different regional bank uh you know little you know, 186 00:10:59.159 --> 00:11:02.919 lobbyist groups. Then what we've got with both coinbase and 187 00:11:02.960 --> 00:11:05.919 the major portion of the industry, with these major packs 188 00:11:05.919 --> 00:11:08.519 that are moving, you know, massive. 189 00:11:08.200 --> 00:11:09.639 Power in d C. 190 00:11:09.960 --> 00:11:13.840 Do you think that power has shifted in terms of 191 00:11:13.879 --> 00:11:14.720 how this dictates. 192 00:11:15.039 --> 00:11:18.240 No, I don't think necessarily the power has shifted, you 193 00:11:18.279 --> 00:11:21.639 know it, But certainly when when you're this close to 194 00:11:22.039 --> 00:11:26.799 a to an important midterm election. Yeah, you want to 195 00:11:26.799 --> 00:11:29.840 focus on the broad general public instead of the lobbyist. 196 00:11:30.360 --> 00:11:32.240 So it's less of a power thing. It's more of 197 00:11:32.279 --> 00:11:35.879 a hey, let's stay in power thing. But what I 198 00:11:35.879 --> 00:11:40.320 will say is a lot of the crypto industry people 199 00:11:41.240 --> 00:11:43.320 have changed their mind a little bit on what they're 200 00:11:43.320 --> 00:11:45.440 willing to take and what they're willing to accept, right 201 00:11:45.480 --> 00:11:48.320 exactly right, you know, And this is why, you know, 202 00:11:48.399 --> 00:11:51.279 my my ninety percent number kind of kind of aligns 203 00:11:51.320 --> 00:11:55.840 with the ninety percent of crypto companies that are saying, no, 204 00:11:55.879 --> 00:11:58.000 we just need to get something passed because we don't 205 00:11:58.200 --> 00:11:59.840 got to happen in the next two years, the next 206 00:12:00.000 --> 00:12:02.159 war years. And then you still have a couple of 207 00:12:02.200 --> 00:12:08.320 holdouts like Coinbase, who have almost killed the bill, and 208 00:12:08.320 --> 00:12:11.799 and now they're feeling the pressure from other people in 209 00:12:11.840 --> 00:12:12.480 the industry. 210 00:12:12.840 --> 00:12:15.080 Okay, so let's let's break that down a little bit. 211 00:12:15.240 --> 00:12:18.799 As far as yields, we have this kind of loophole 212 00:12:19.360 --> 00:12:23.639 in there right now. It is still ban on yields 213 00:12:23.679 --> 00:12:26.240 for passive but there are some ways in which it 214 00:12:26.279 --> 00:12:29.159 could be done that's a little bit more finagaled of 215 00:12:29.240 --> 00:12:32.159 how institutions or you know, companies could bring this to market. 216 00:12:32.799 --> 00:12:35.480 Do you think that will end up on the compromise table. 217 00:12:36.840 --> 00:12:39.919 Yeah, it certainly will be a compromised item. And that's 218 00:12:39.960 --> 00:12:43.000 probably the biggest compromise item. And and I've said this 219 00:12:43.039 --> 00:12:47.159 before to you, I'm I'm actually aligned with the banks 220 00:12:47.559 --> 00:12:51.519 on that particular issue because there's there's a KAY follow Yeah, 221 00:12:51.600 --> 00:12:54.080 and if you just have another player that doesn't have 222 00:12:54.120 --> 00:12:56.159 to follow it just because it's new tech, I mean 223 00:12:56.240 --> 00:12:59.039 that that that doesn't make any sense. And as a 224 00:12:59.360 --> 00:13:03.879 money manager who used to manage money market mutual funds 225 00:13:03.919 --> 00:13:06.240 and play by the rules and registered as a security 226 00:13:06.679 --> 00:13:09.879 and be licensed and you know, and and uh, you 227 00:13:09.919 --> 00:13:12.240 know and go and follow all the rules. 228 00:13:12.960 --> 00:13:13.960 You know, either you. 229 00:13:13.919 --> 00:13:18.840 Eliminate the rules for everybody, or you make the stable 230 00:13:18.879 --> 00:13:21.159 coins follow the same rules if they want to distribute guilt. 231 00:13:21.480 --> 00:13:22.480 I mean, that's my opinion. 232 00:13:23.279 --> 00:13:26.960 But at the same time, we're talking about issuers here. 233 00:13:27.039 --> 00:13:30.879 But if you're a distributor of this stable coin, or 234 00:13:30.919 --> 00:13:34.399 you're a wallet, or you're you know, you're in DeFi 235 00:13:34.960 --> 00:13:37.360 and you want to pay yield on something because you 236 00:13:37.399 --> 00:13:39.240 can go out and make it work and you know, 237 00:13:39.720 --> 00:13:42.759 generate a revenue system on this and be able to 238 00:13:42.799 --> 00:13:45.279 come back and pay yield or rewards, whatever you want 239 00:13:45.279 --> 00:13:48.960 to call it back to the participant. Would you agree 240 00:13:49.000 --> 00:13:54.120 with that. 241 00:13:51.639 --> 00:13:54.000 That that's a little bit more fuzzy. I mean, I'm 242 00:13:54.080 --> 00:13:56.600 kind of talking from the camp of Okay, if you're 243 00:13:57.159 --> 00:13:59.639 buying securities and putting them in a vehicle and then 244 00:13:59.639 --> 00:14:01.799 this stry beating the yield that comes from those securities, 245 00:14:02.480 --> 00:14:05.919 your security. Yeah, you're you're you're you're a rick, and 246 00:14:06.519 --> 00:14:10.080 they're you know, I think there's just because of the structure, 247 00:14:10.080 --> 00:14:11.159 they're trying to avoid that. 248 00:14:11.240 --> 00:14:13.480 Now, all you got to do is register it. It's 249 00:14:13.519 --> 00:14:16.600 not that hard. Registers a rick. Register's a forty a product. 250 00:14:16.679 --> 00:14:21.039 Interesting, you know, there's there's there's nothing stopping you from 251 00:14:21.080 --> 00:14:23.679 doing that, right. But but you're talking about okay, well, 252 00:14:23.679 --> 00:14:27.000 what if you take the token and then you you 253 00:14:27.399 --> 00:14:30.559 you place it for you know, for for for lending, 254 00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:34.240 then you know, look if it if it's DeFi lending, 255 00:14:34.320 --> 00:14:35.720 I don't think that that's a security. 256 00:14:35.960 --> 00:14:39.679 Yeah, okay, let's well let's talk about DeFi. So do 257 00:14:39.759 --> 00:14:43.320 you feel good that DeFi gets saved in this bill? 258 00:14:43.960 --> 00:14:46.200 I do, I really do? Now? 259 00:14:46.320 --> 00:14:48.840 No, Technically, though, if you're now if you're doing that 260 00:14:48.919 --> 00:14:51.600 on behalf of others and distributing that then the yield, Well, 261 00:14:51.600 --> 00:14:54.519 then you're an issuer. Yeah, you're an issuer. 262 00:14:54.559 --> 00:14:58.000 Sure man, this is such a well you know, in reality, 263 00:14:58.080 --> 00:14:59.879 I mean, these rules have been around for a long time, 264 00:15:00.000 --> 00:15:04.559 but there's those nuances that it creates questions that everybody 265 00:15:04.600 --> 00:15:07.559 I think is trying to answer here now. So you 266 00:15:07.639 --> 00:15:12.919 look at the situation right now at the CFTC and 267 00:15:13.120 --> 00:15:16.080 tell me if this is important. Let me share this 268 00:15:16.120 --> 00:15:21.519 tweet with everybody you've got. This is kind of this 269 00:15:21.679 --> 00:15:26.480 everybody in urgent mode right now because they're worried about 270 00:15:26.759 --> 00:15:30.120 the AG leaders urging President Trump to fill these banked 271 00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:34.159 CFTC seats, mainly because they feel that this is going 272 00:15:34.240 --> 00:15:36.679 to be an onslaught of governance that they have to 273 00:15:36.679 --> 00:15:40.600 do because of clarity possibly going through here. How important 274 00:15:40.799 --> 00:15:44.279 is and are the seats in the CFTC. 275 00:15:45.320 --> 00:15:47.039 I think it's extremely important. 276 00:15:47.240 --> 00:15:52.080 And Okay, you know, CFTC is actually historically done a 277 00:15:52.080 --> 00:15:56.360 lot for crypto. Even in the days when the SEC 278 00:15:56.759 --> 00:16:01.519 was fighting against it, the CFTC was a lot more favorable. 279 00:16:02.080 --> 00:16:06.000 So they've they've done a lot and they now have 280 00:16:06.120 --> 00:16:10.200 a lot more of a burden as mentioned here, looking 281 00:16:10.200 --> 00:16:13.840 at crypto as a commodity and monitoring it with with 282 00:16:13.840 --> 00:16:18.440 with other commodities. I think that the CFTC probably needs 283 00:16:18.480 --> 00:16:21.080 to be beefed up a little bit even to help 284 00:16:21.120 --> 00:16:23.240 prevent fraud and theft. 285 00:16:23.919 --> 00:16:26.039 So there's a lot, there's a lot. 286 00:16:25.840 --> 00:16:27.799 Here, and I do think these seats need to be 287 00:16:27.799 --> 00:16:33.919 filled pretty quickly, and that probably some funding needs to intrease, 288 00:16:34.639 --> 00:16:37.480 you know, increased for the CFTC. And and I hate saying, 289 00:16:37.480 --> 00:16:41.039 you know, extra funding for government, right, but I think 290 00:16:41.159 --> 00:16:43.759 in this case it's pretty important, and they probably are 291 00:16:43.799 --> 00:16:44.559 into funded. 292 00:16:44.559 --> 00:16:49.240 Well, and you are opening up a massive innovation lane 293 00:16:49.639 --> 00:16:52.840 now with if Clarity does go through it, you're ninety percent. 294 00:16:53.320 --> 00:16:56.320 That's an innovation lane that is very similar to the 295 00:16:56.360 --> 00:16:58.600 era of the Internet, where you're going to see that 296 00:16:58.679 --> 00:17:01.879 many new products and service is coming out. So now 297 00:17:01.879 --> 00:17:05.039 that they're financial services, having the CFTC involved, I could 298 00:17:05.039 --> 00:17:09.000 see that being a problem which could be a little 299 00:17:09.039 --> 00:17:14.119 bit sticky down the road, especially into the next presidential term. 300 00:17:14.480 --> 00:17:17.119 These could kind of backfire, some of these, So I'm 301 00:17:17.200 --> 00:17:21.759 concerned about that. Are you at all concerned about reversal 302 00:17:21.839 --> 00:17:24.480 of all this work that's done in this administration in 303 00:17:24.519 --> 00:17:27.200 the next administration, if in fact they were, I mean 304 00:17:27.279 --> 00:17:29.559 the Republicans were to lose a White House. 305 00:17:31.039 --> 00:17:33.279 Now, I think it's hard to put the cat back 306 00:17:33.279 --> 00:17:38.920 into the bag. We've were largely regulated by opinion from 307 00:17:38.960 --> 00:17:42.599 the SEC over the last few years, and now that 308 00:17:42.680 --> 00:17:46.400 opinion has changed. So if there were a situation and 309 00:17:46.440 --> 00:17:47.960 it was even taken a court, it's like, no, there 310 00:17:48.000 --> 00:17:51.240 was guidance given, they followed the guidance, and now you 311 00:17:51.240 --> 00:17:54.039 want to take that guidance, walk it back and pun 312 00:17:54.119 --> 00:17:58.599 It's very hard to walk that back. So I do 313 00:17:58.720 --> 00:18:01.000 believe that it's going to be very difficult. Now we 314 00:18:01.000 --> 00:18:04.279 won't see as much progress as we've had in the 315 00:18:04.319 --> 00:18:07.640 last two years, but we're at a pretty good spot. 316 00:18:07.880 --> 00:18:10.640 Yeah. I like to hear that from you, man, because 317 00:18:11.039 --> 00:18:13.000 I feel like you kind of know what's up there. 318 00:18:14.119 --> 00:18:16.759 Talk to me about this right here, I'm gonna share this. 319 00:18:17.759 --> 00:18:22.640 US thirty US thirty year treasuries now rose now as 320 00:18:22.720 --> 00:18:25.680 high as five point one percent one point six percent 321 00:18:26.559 --> 00:18:28.559 this morning. So this is the highest level in the 322 00:18:28.599 --> 00:18:32.039 run up since we saw the global financial crisis. So 323 00:18:33.680 --> 00:18:36.640 that's a little scary to me. What does this do 324 00:18:36.799 --> 00:18:38.160 to markets? 325 00:18:38.559 --> 00:18:42.279 Well, it's by the way, it's not entirely shocking. 326 00:18:44.160 --> 00:18:47.599 I remember in twenty sixteen I called the top of 327 00:18:47.640 --> 00:18:51.599 the bond market and left my bond manager job. 328 00:18:51.440 --> 00:18:54.319 To give it to crypto. So we're ten years. 329 00:18:54.599 --> 00:18:58.599 We're now ten years into a generational bear market and 330 00:18:58.720 --> 00:19:03.119 bonds and will probably last another twenty We are moving 331 00:19:03.319 --> 00:19:05.880 fairly quickly here. And if you look at tenure, which 332 00:19:06.000 --> 00:19:08.960 which a lot of things are priced to right around 333 00:19:08.960 --> 00:19:13.359 four sixty right now, I see a scenario where in 334 00:19:13.400 --> 00:19:17.519 the short run the tenure gets above five percent, okay, 335 00:19:17.839 --> 00:19:20.559 thirty year, probably above five and a half. 336 00:19:21.440 --> 00:19:24.680 So it creates a funding crutch for the US government. 337 00:19:24.799 --> 00:19:29.640 So government's going to have to probably either increase taxes 338 00:19:29.759 --> 00:19:36.359 or cut expenses. I'm for cutting expenses, but they're for raising. 339 00:19:36.079 --> 00:19:40.839 Taxes, yeah, no doubt. 340 00:19:41.720 --> 00:19:45.160 In addition to that, it probably will also track inflation, 341 00:19:45.759 --> 00:19:48.960 and I do expect inflation to continue to go higher, 342 00:19:49.400 --> 00:19:51.960 particularly with gasoline prices as high as they are. I 343 00:19:51.960 --> 00:19:53.599 think it's going to take a very long time for 344 00:19:53.640 --> 00:19:57.599 gasoline prices to come back down. But high gas high 345 00:19:57.720 --> 00:20:02.039 energy prices, whether it's from you know, world based or 346 00:20:02.240 --> 00:20:07.839 other energy, which is now fueling AI data Sanders we've 347 00:20:07.839 --> 00:20:12.440 got an energy crisis potentially in our hands across the board, 348 00:20:12.559 --> 00:20:15.240 and that energy crisis spills into the cost of goods 349 00:20:15.240 --> 00:20:20.519 of everything going up in price. So it's not a 350 00:20:20.559 --> 00:20:23.240 shocker at all that rates continue to go up and 351 00:20:23.279 --> 00:20:24.680 the curve continues to steep in. 352 00:20:25.079 --> 00:20:27.559 So you've got growth in tech stocks, which I think 353 00:20:27.599 --> 00:20:30.200 will get hit the hardest. Here, I want to take 354 00:20:30.240 --> 00:20:33.119 a minute, guys and just invite you to join the 355 00:20:33.119 --> 00:20:36.880 Barren Market Edge private member group. You guys can do 356 00:20:37.000 --> 00:20:39.799 that by just clicking the link down in our description. 357 00:20:39.960 --> 00:20:43.200 This is your insider's edge to the AI and crypto 358 00:20:43.240 --> 00:20:46.400 money revolution, which is what we really focus on here 359 00:20:46.480 --> 00:20:50.680 on PBN. This is additional research that I do along 360 00:20:50.680 --> 00:20:52.880 with our team, and we have a pretty significant team 361 00:20:52.920 --> 00:20:56.359 on our research around not only what guides our episodes, 362 00:20:56.400 --> 00:20:59.440 but a lot of that research gets built into more 363 00:20:59.480 --> 00:21:02.000 content than I drop here on the Barren Market Edge. 364 00:21:02.319 --> 00:21:05.480 We do market trends and sentiment analysis, which can be 365 00:21:05.519 --> 00:21:08.640 anything from tokens to all sorts of strategies. 366 00:21:09.079 --> 00:21:11.200 This, of course will also guide. 367 00:21:10.880 --> 00:21:13.519 You over to our Telegram group and we give this 368 00:21:13.559 --> 00:21:17.559 as elite community access. You get bonus content over there, 369 00:21:17.599 --> 00:21:22.039 including tax guides, as well as different kinds of asset 370 00:21:22.119 --> 00:21:25.559 guides out there that we drop all the time. This 371 00:21:25.640 --> 00:21:28.759 is your ten year vision in action. All you have 372 00:21:28.799 --> 00:21:31.240 to do, of course, is just hit that little subscribe 373 00:21:31.240 --> 00:21:33.880 button or join the community and get in on it. 374 00:21:33.880 --> 00:21:36.359 It's absolutely free. It doesn't cost you a thing, so 375 00:21:36.440 --> 00:21:38.920 check it out. Look at maybe even real estate and 376 00:21:38.960 --> 00:21:42.359 mortgage markets that freeze up a little bit. This seems 377 00:21:42.359 --> 00:21:44.920 a little bit more concerning to me in terms of 378 00:21:45.240 --> 00:21:49.440 at least how the market responds to this. You, I mean, 379 00:21:49.440 --> 00:21:53.119 because obviously that affects risk markets like crypto in a 380 00:21:53.160 --> 00:21:56.079 big way. What would come that's good out of this? 381 00:21:58.720 --> 00:22:00.880 Well, I mean, I guess the thing that's coming out 382 00:22:00.920 --> 00:22:03.640 of this is we now have a normalized curve again 383 00:22:03.799 --> 00:22:07.400 almost for the longest time it was inverted, which means 384 00:22:07.440 --> 00:22:10.440 that it makes it actually easier to understand risk and 385 00:22:10.519 --> 00:22:14.880 invest I say, it is normal again, and that's really 386 00:22:14.880 --> 00:22:16.200 the only good thing. 387 00:22:16.039 --> 00:22:17.240 Out of it. 388 00:22:17.240 --> 00:22:21.759 It is rising too quickly for the economy to support it, 389 00:22:21.839 --> 00:22:26.279 so interest rates where they're going, not necessarily even where 390 00:22:26.279 --> 00:22:29.640 they are now, but where they're going plus inflation will 391 00:22:29.759 --> 00:22:32.839 likely drive us into a recession twenty twenty seven. 392 00:22:32.920 --> 00:22:35.640 Doesn't this kind of go in opposition of what Scott 393 00:22:35.680 --> 00:22:39.000 Besson has been trying to do because this strength thans 394 00:22:39.079 --> 00:22:42.720 the US dollar, well, it's streamemaking US polar. 395 00:22:42.799 --> 00:22:44.240 But nobody can buy anything. 396 00:22:44.319 --> 00:22:48.359 I mean, you know, It's what's what's interesting is if 397 00:22:48.400 --> 00:22:51.039 you look at government, you know, they only hang out 398 00:22:51.039 --> 00:22:52.000 with their rich friends. 399 00:22:52.079 --> 00:22:54.319 Right, So ten percent of the country is doing just fine. 400 00:22:54.480 --> 00:22:55.200 They can't see it. 401 00:22:55.319 --> 00:22:58.240