Speaker 1: We are back here on the XRP podcast and joining me,
Speaker 1: of course, is Stephen McClure coming in from Canary Capital.
Speaker 1: Today we're going to break down a lot on clarity
Speaker 1: what's going on in the ETFs. We also i'll talk
Speaker 1: a little bit about the thirty year yield. This is
Speaker 1: starting to shake things up. You guys want to stick
Speaker 1: around for that. And where will bitcoin and ethereum be
Speaker 1: over the summer?
Speaker 2: Are we going to see a big move?
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Speaker 1: You guys are not want to go to miss this one.
Speaker 1: It is an awesome one. So Steven, welcome to the show.
Speaker 2: Hey, thanks for having me, Paul.
Speaker 1: So we got a lot to talk about. There's a
Speaker 1: few things that have been brewing, and I think one
Speaker 1: of the biggest issues that we are facing right now.
Speaker 1: I put out a tweet this morning. Actually I want
Speaker 1: to showcase this first because I think this is more
Speaker 1: more important is the fact that we saw a very
Speaker 1: big move happen right here, and it kind of I
Speaker 1: was surprised by this. So gold sackx liquidates there one
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty four million dollar XRP position, they pivot
Speaker 1: to hyper Liquids Treasury. But there was also a liquidation
Speaker 1: of Salona in this one as well. So when you
Speaker 1: is this normal for major institutions to do these kind
Speaker 1: of moves where they just literally go from one to another.
Speaker 1: Is this something you see all the time.
Speaker 3: Well yet, yes and no, it can be So I
Speaker 3: don't know which ETF that Goldman Sachs liquidated, you know,
Speaker 3: haven't looked at the data on where inflows possibly happened
Speaker 3: last week. It wasn't our ETF. We've had pretty pretty
Speaker 3: steady inflows for the last few weeks with no outflows,
Speaker 3: so that's been great. But the way that a lot
Speaker 3: of organizations work is they might seed an ETF, yeah,
Speaker 3: and then when a new ETF comes out, they pull
Speaker 3: the seed to move it over to the other one. Yeah,
Speaker 3: that's one possible explanation. I've been watching this with a
Speaker 3: couple of other ETFs that have been coming out, where
Speaker 3: it gets seeded and then two weeks later the seed
Speaker 3: gets and then it moves to the next one. Yeah,
Speaker 3: So it's not something that we do, but there are
Speaker 3: other ETF issues that will do this.
Speaker 2: But again case, but that's what theirs.
Speaker 1: Was a little different because it was distributed across several funds.
Speaker 1: You'll see here in the article. It was in Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin,
Speaker 1: Templeton and twenty one Share so this was in their
Speaker 1: thirteen F filing. So that's happened but at the same
Speaker 1: time we're hearing rumors. And this is the thing that's
Speaker 1: a little unusual to me. I'll show you this one,
Speaker 1: and that is Citadel is reportedly investing another one point
Speaker 1: seven mil. That's not much, but it is putting money
Speaker 1: into an XRP ETF potentially. Why do you see one
Speaker 1: major moving out and another one start to dabble into this.
Speaker 1: Is this a commonality that we see in Wall Street?
Speaker 2: Now? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean, and again, each each group has different reasons
Speaker 3: why they're investing or or taking chips off the table.
Speaker 3: In the case of Goldman, my guess is it's probably
Speaker 3: again seed capital that they're moving to another product. Citadel
Speaker 3: isn't necessarily the same type of shop, and they're probably
Speaker 3: seeing a basis trade. Again, I don't know, I'm speculating here, Yeah,
Speaker 3: but Citadel might see a basis opportunity an XRP, which,
Speaker 3: by the way, we see a pretty good basis trade
Speaker 3: here as well. So it doesn't shock me that you know,
Speaker 3: they're using their prop desks to potentially trade basis.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so interesting move there. You can see right here
Speaker 1: Coitdas reported, xrp's ETF pulled in sixty million in net
Speaker 1: inflows last week, this was the strongest weekly performance for
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, inflows to one point thirty nine billion overall.
Speaker 1: When you look at the accumulative inflows, where do you
Speaker 1: think this will be at the end of the year.
Speaker 3: That's that's a tough one because you know, you also
Speaker 3: have to look at the market. I believe that XRP
Speaker 3: could probably double in price by the end of the year.
Speaker 3: So from that it is today oh yeah, yeah, And
Speaker 3: that's that's definitely a factor. And the second factor is
Speaker 3: of course growing interest. You know, I do believe the
Speaker 3: summer is going to be a tough summer for equities
Speaker 3: and crypto across the board once we go into the
Speaker 3: midterm election season, and then after midterms, that's when I
Speaker 3: believe that you'll see a lot more influence coming in
Speaker 3: into the ETF. So I think in addition to the
Speaker 3: double in price, we also probably see a thirty percent
Speaker 3: increase in interest by the end of the year as well.
Speaker 1: So that being drawn in just because of what we
Speaker 1: are seeing in general, token is security RWAs moving on.
Speaker 1: This of course rises the interest of institutional maybe clarity,
Speaker 1: which we'll talk about in a second. Do you think
Speaker 1: all of that comes together as just a nice cocktail
Speaker 1: and that's driving interest. Well, what do you think it
Speaker 1: is or is there something completely more macro oriented here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean a lot of my statement came because
Speaker 3: of macro okay, but but but also clarity is important too.
Speaker 3: One of the important features of the XRP Ledger is
Speaker 3: r w a's and stable coins, and clarity will certainly
Speaker 3: help promote that network. You know, if you're asking me
Speaker 3: who the top five chains are that are going to
Speaker 3: win in tokenization, the XRP Ledger is definitely in the
Speaker 3: top five top five.
Speaker 1: Who else would you put in there?
Speaker 3: Like? I like Suee a lot, Okay, I think that
Speaker 3: they're they're they're a great team, They're doing some really
Speaker 3: interesting things. I like in j I like SCI. I
Speaker 3: think I think all of those are are are are
Speaker 3: really good spots for tokenization. And then HBAR is kind
Speaker 3: of unique as well, where they won't they won't necessarily
Speaker 3: win in my opinion on the what what people traditionally
Speaker 3: think about tokenization, but more enterprise data, which you know,
Speaker 3: you can tokenize the data it's it's itself, and I.
Speaker 2: Think that's going to be a really interesting prospect.
Speaker 1: Well, and in in tokenized data, you're you're or I
Speaker 1: should say, in tokenize tokenization, I think we're going to
Speaker 1: see a lot of use cases that a lot of
Speaker 1: people just did not have the capacity to imagine what
Speaker 1: that innovation is going to affect in terms of where
Speaker 1: markets will go.
Speaker 3: So I would agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of interesting points. I'm still
Speaker 1: stuck on this point of you thinking that XRP doubles
Speaker 1: by year end. I mean, you're it's running at one
Speaker 1: thirty seven after two pre significant days or this morning.
Speaker 2: It's been down over.
Speaker 1: The last couple hours, but over the last couple of
Speaker 1: days it has been trending down, and that would be
Speaker 1: a big move to double from here up to two sixty.
Speaker 1: So that was after, of course, we saw you know,
Speaker 1: continued macro pressure both off the China trip from Trump,
Speaker 1: but also just in general not getting out of Iran,
Speaker 1: which I think is a big deal.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that there are some big variables out there. Yeah,
Speaker 3: and Iran is a very big variable.
Speaker 1: So everything, the Clarity Act gets through the Senate fifteen
Speaker 1: to nine. The Committee, I shouldn't say the Senate gets
Speaker 1: through the Committee. The Banking Committee fifteen to nine, and
Speaker 1: it's getting ready to go into the Senate. Now if
Speaker 1: it goes in here shortly, A sixteen Z is over
Speaker 1: here saying, you know, listen, we think this thing is
Speaker 1: going to really create a whole new domestic boom for
Speaker 1: innovation and possibly affect the global markets, which I would
Speaker 1: agree with the genius that that does kind of set
Speaker 1: a little bit of a tone. What area do you think? Well,
Speaker 1: first of all, let's talk about your percentage now for
Speaker 1: passage in twenty twenty six. Where are you today?
Speaker 2: Probably closer to ninety percent, And I know that's your feeling.
Speaker 1: Oh wow, okay, yeah, so you're feeling very good about this.
Speaker 1: Clearly A sixteen disease is setting on a position where
Speaker 1: they think this is going to go through. I am
Speaker 1: still concerned that the ethics issue is going to stall this.
Speaker 1: You're not as much concerned about that.
Speaker 3: No, I mean, what's what's come, What's what's happened since
Speaker 3: the last time we spoke, and when I was the
Speaker 3: opposite side of that, you were on the other side. Yes,
Speaker 3: you've got two political parties right now that are death
Speaker 3: spertly trying to win Congress in any way that they can,
Speaker 3: and making crypto a dividing factor isn't.
Speaker 2: A great idea.
Speaker 3: So you know, the Republicans are really coming from a
Speaker 3: place of weakness. They're they're obviously going to have to
Speaker 3: vote for it, even if there's a few dissenters, right.
Speaker 3: And then the Democrats, you know, they want they want
Speaker 3: to win both houses so bad that they don't want
Speaker 3: it's used to be in their way, despite the fact
Speaker 3: that you have the bank lobbyists trying to trying to
Speaker 3: shut it down. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 3: it's the voters that matter, and you know.
Speaker 1: Anything to fact that, the fact that it made it
Speaker 1: through the committee. When you look at the Centate Banking Committee,
Speaker 1: that was a very strong mm hmm process that we
Speaker 1: went through for six months literally between the ABA, all
Speaker 1: the different regional bank uh you know little you know,
Speaker 1: lobbyist groups. Then what we've got with both coinbase and
Speaker 1: the major portion of the industry, with these major packs
Speaker 1: that are moving, you know, massive.
Speaker 3: Power in d C.
Speaker 1: Do you think that power has shifted in terms of
Speaker 1: how this dictates.
Speaker 3: No, I don't think necessarily the power has shifted, you
Speaker 3: know it, But certainly when when you're this close to
Speaker 3: a to an important midterm election. Yeah, you want to
Speaker 3: focus on the broad general public instead of the lobbyist.
Speaker 3: So it's less of a power thing. It's more of
Speaker 3: a hey, let's stay in power thing. But what I
Speaker 3: will say is a lot of the crypto industry people
Speaker 3: have changed their mind a little bit on what they're
Speaker 3: willing to take and what they're willing to accept, right
Speaker 3: exactly right, you know, And this is why, you know,
Speaker 3: my my ninety percent number kind of kind of aligns
Speaker 3: with the ninety percent of crypto companies that are saying, no,
Speaker 3: we just need to get something passed because we don't
Speaker 3: got to happen in the next two years, the next
Speaker 3: war years. And then you still have a couple of
Speaker 3: holdouts like Coinbase, who have almost killed the bill, and
Speaker 3: and now they're feeling the pressure from other people in
Speaker 3: the industry.
Speaker 1: Okay, so let's let's break that down a little bit.
Speaker 1: As far as yields, we have this kind of loophole
Speaker 1: in there right now. It is still ban on yields
Speaker 1: for passive but there are some ways in which it
Speaker 1: could be done that's a little bit more finagaled of
Speaker 1: how institutions or you know, companies could bring this to market.
Speaker 1: Do you think that will end up on the compromise table.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it certainly will be a compromised item. And that's
Speaker 3: probably the biggest compromise item. And and I've said this
Speaker 3: before to you, I'm I'm actually aligned with the banks
Speaker 3: on that particular issue because there's there's a KAY follow Yeah,
Speaker 3: and if you just have another player that doesn't have
Speaker 3: to follow it just because it's new tech, I mean
Speaker 3: that that that doesn't make any sense. And as a
Speaker 3: money manager who used to manage money market mutual funds
Speaker 3: and play by the rules and registered as a security
Speaker 3: and be licensed and you know, and and uh, you
Speaker 3: know and go and follow all the rules.
Speaker 2: You know, either you.
Speaker 3: Eliminate the rules for everybody, or you make the stable
Speaker 3: coins follow the same rules if they want to distribute guilt.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's my opinion.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, we're talking about issuers here.
Speaker 1: But if you're a distributor of this stable coin, or
Speaker 1: you're a wallet, or you're you know, you're in DeFi
Speaker 1: and you want to pay yield on something because you
Speaker 1: can go out and make it work and you know,
Speaker 1: generate a revenue system on this and be able to
Speaker 1: come back and pay yield or rewards, whatever you want
Speaker 1: to call it back to the participant. Would you agree
Speaker 1: with that.
Speaker 3: That that's a little bit more fuzzy. I mean, I'm
Speaker 3: kind of talking from the camp of Okay, if you're
Speaker 3: buying securities and putting them in a vehicle and then
Speaker 3: this stry beating the yield that comes from those securities,
Speaker 3: your security. Yeah, you're you're you're you're a rick, and
Speaker 3: they're you know, I think there's just because of the structure,
Speaker 3: they're trying to avoid that.
Speaker 2: Now, all you got to do is register it. It's
Speaker 2: not that hard. Registers a rick. Register's a forty a product.
Speaker 3: Interesting, you know, there's there's there's nothing stopping you from
Speaker 3: doing that, right. But but you're talking about okay, well,
Speaker 3: what if you take the token and then you you
Speaker 3: you place it for you know, for for for lending,
Speaker 3: then you know, look if it if it's DeFi lending,
Speaker 3: I don't think that that's a security.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, let's well let's talk about DeFi. So do
Speaker 1: you feel good that DeFi gets saved in this bill?
Speaker 2: I do, I really do? Now?
Speaker 3: No, Technically, though, if you're now if you're doing that
Speaker 3: on behalf of others and distributing that then the yield, Well,
Speaker 3: then you're an issuer. Yeah, you're an issuer.
Speaker 1: Sure man, this is such a well you know, in reality,
Speaker 1: I mean, these rules have been around for a long time,
Speaker 1: but there's those nuances that it creates questions that everybody
Speaker 1: I think is trying to answer here now. So you
Speaker 1: look at the situation right now at the CFTC and
Speaker 1: tell me if this is important. Let me share this
Speaker 1: tweet with everybody you've got. This is kind of this
Speaker 1: everybody in urgent mode right now because they're worried about
Speaker 1: the AG leaders urging President Trump to fill these banked
Speaker 1: CFTC seats, mainly because they feel that this is going
Speaker 1: to be an onslaught of governance that they have to
Speaker 1: do because of clarity possibly going through here. How important
Speaker 1: is and are the seats in the CFTC.
Speaker 2: I think it's extremely important.
Speaker 3: And Okay, you know, CFTC is actually historically done a
Speaker 3: lot for crypto. Even in the days when the SEC
Speaker 3: was fighting against it, the CFTC was a lot more favorable.
Speaker 3: So they've they've done a lot and they now have
Speaker 3: a lot more of a burden as mentioned here, looking
Speaker 3: at crypto as a commodity and monitoring it with with
Speaker 3: with other commodities. I think that the CFTC probably needs
Speaker 3: to be beefed up a little bit even to help
Speaker 3: prevent fraud and theft.
Speaker 2: So there's a lot, there's a lot.
Speaker 3: Here, and I do think these seats need to be
Speaker 3: filled pretty quickly, and that probably some funding needs to intrease,
Speaker 3: you know, increased for the CFTC. And and I hate saying,
Speaker 3: you know, extra funding for government, right, but I think
Speaker 3: in this case it's pretty important, and they probably are
Speaker 3: into funded.
Speaker 1: Well, and you are opening up a massive innovation lane
Speaker 1: now with if Clarity does go through it, you're ninety percent.
Speaker 1: That's an innovation lane that is very similar to the
Speaker 1: era of the Internet, where you're going to see that
Speaker 1: many new products and service is coming out. So now
Speaker 1: that they're financial services, having the CFTC involved, I could
Speaker 1: see that being a problem which could be a little
Speaker 1: bit sticky down the road, especially into the next presidential term.
Speaker 1: These could kind of backfire, some of these, So I'm
Speaker 1: concerned about that. Are you at all concerned about reversal
Speaker 1: of all this work that's done in this administration in
Speaker 1: the next administration, if in fact they were, I mean
Speaker 1: the Republicans were to lose a White House.
Speaker 3: Now, I think it's hard to put the cat back
Speaker 3: into the bag. We've were largely regulated by opinion from
Speaker 3: the SEC over the last few years, and now that
Speaker 3: opinion has changed. So if there were a situation and
Speaker 3: it was even taken a court, it's like, no, there
Speaker 3: was guidance given, they followed the guidance, and now you
Speaker 3: want to take that guidance, walk it back and pun
Speaker 3: It's very hard to walk that back. So I do
Speaker 3: believe that it's going to be very difficult. Now we
Speaker 3: won't see as much progress as we've had in the
Speaker 3: last two years, but we're at a pretty good spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like to hear that from you, man, because
Speaker 1: I feel like you kind of know what's up there.
Speaker 1: Talk to me about this right here, I'm gonna share this.
Speaker 1: US thirty US thirty year treasuries now rose now as
Speaker 1: high as five point one percent one point six percent
Speaker 1: this morning. So this is the highest level in the
Speaker 1: run up since we saw the global financial crisis. So
Speaker 1: that's a little scary to me. What does this do
Speaker 1: to markets?
Speaker 2: Well, it's by the way, it's not entirely shocking.
Speaker 3: I remember in twenty sixteen I called the top of
Speaker 3: the bond market and left my bond manager job.
Speaker 2: To give it to crypto. So we're ten years.
Speaker 3: We're now ten years into a generational bear market and
Speaker 3: bonds and will probably last another twenty We are moving
Speaker 3: fairly quickly here. And if you look at tenure, which
Speaker 3: which a lot of things are priced to right around
Speaker 3: four sixty right now, I see a scenario where in
Speaker 3: the short run the tenure gets above five percent, okay,
Speaker 3: thirty year, probably above five and a half.
Speaker 2: So it creates a funding crutch for the US government.
Speaker 3: So government's going to have to probably either increase taxes
Speaker 3: or cut expenses. I'm for cutting expenses, but they're for raising.
Speaker 2: Taxes, yeah, no doubt.
Speaker 3: In addition to that, it probably will also track inflation,
Speaker 3: and I do expect inflation to continue to go higher,
Speaker 3: particularly with gasoline prices as high as they are. I
Speaker 3: think it's going to take a very long time for
Speaker 3: gasoline prices to come back down. But high gas high
Speaker 3: energy prices, whether it's from you know, world based or
Speaker 3: other energy, which is now fueling AI data Sanders we've
Speaker 3: got an energy crisis potentially in our hands across the board,
Speaker 3: and that energy crisis spills into the cost of goods
Speaker 3: of everything going up in price. So it's not a
Speaker 3: shocker at all that rates continue to go up and
Speaker 3: the curve continues to steep in.
Speaker 1: So you've got growth in tech stocks, which I think
Speaker 1: will get hit the hardest. Here, I want to take
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Speaker 1: It's absolutely free. It doesn't cost you a thing, so
Speaker 1: check it out. Look at maybe even real estate and
Speaker 1: mortgage markets that freeze up a little bit. This seems
Speaker 1: a little bit more concerning to me in terms of
Speaker 1: at least how the market responds to this. You, I mean,
Speaker 1: because obviously that affects risk markets like crypto in a
Speaker 1: big way. What would come that's good out of this?
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I guess the thing that's coming out
Speaker 3: of this is we now have a normalized curve again
Speaker 3: almost for the longest time it was inverted, which means
Speaker 3: that it makes it actually easier to understand risk and
Speaker 3: invest I say, it is normal again, and that's really
Speaker 3: the only good thing.
Speaker 2: Out of it.
Speaker 3: It is rising too quickly for the economy to support it,
Speaker 3: so interest rates where they're going, not necessarily even where
Speaker 3: they are now, but where they're going plus inflation will
Speaker 3: likely drive us into a recession twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 1: Doesn't this kind of go in opposition of what Scott
Speaker 1: Besson has been trying to do because this strength thans
Speaker 1: the US dollar, well, it's streamemaking US polar.
Speaker 2: But nobody can buy anything.
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, It's what's what's interesting is if
Speaker 3: you look at government, you know, they only hang out
Speaker 3: with their rich friends.
Speaker 2: Right, So ten percent of the country is doing just fine.
Speaker 1: They can't see it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, ninety percent of the countries where the real pain is.
Speaker 3: So imagine if you're friends of a retiree on a
Speaker 3: fixed income, how are you able to pay for things?
Speaker 2: Right now?
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, So I want to go back to
Speaker 1: the point you said, going into a recession. Potentially here
Speaker 1: would into a recession like this because we haven't seen
Speaker 1: a real recession in a while. What would be the
Speaker 1: assets that you think would be protected in such a recession.
Speaker 3: So right now, what I'm seeing is it's real estate,
Speaker 3: but it's selectoral estate. So if you look at I
Speaker 3: would say, any any homes, let's see single family homes
Speaker 3: that are under a million dollars that those are in
Speaker 3: a really bad space right now.
Speaker 2: People can't afford them, They can't afford the loans on them.
Speaker 3: But the million dollar and over or even probably more
Speaker 3: of like the three million dollar in over do.
Speaker 2: It's just fine.
Speaker 3: Again, ten percent of the country's doing great. They're invested
Speaker 3: in x stocks, they're buying up real state, and they're
Speaker 3: continuing to make money where the other ninety percent are
Speaker 3: so so select real estate is fine.
Speaker 2: Gold interesting.
Speaker 1: Well, there you go, real estate gold into a recession.
Speaker 1: So you guys need to think about that as we
Speaker 1: we move on to this because this treasury yield and
Speaker 1: the tenure is going to be another one to kind
Speaker 1: of keep an eye on it. What would what would
Speaker 1: flip this? What do you think could happen? What would
Speaker 1: cause this to move inverted?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean well, and and even just a situation
Speaker 3: where the where the curve continues to stay normal but
Speaker 3: just lower rates. Yeah, really, we would have to in
Speaker 3: the war in Iran, you would have to probably begin
Speaker 3: to pull out of you know, other areas as well,
Speaker 3: so you know, military spending super high and uh and
Speaker 3: then and then cut government programs, which you know, I
Speaker 3: think I think Trump tried it in the first three
Speaker 3: months with Elon and then and then gave up. But
Speaker 3: those those are really the only things that can I
Speaker 3: think can help.
Speaker 1: Here, reduce spending, get out of the wars. Possibly our
Speaker 1: exposure in Europe maybe that would be it. I mean
Speaker 1: they're kind of they're kind of throwing that out there
Speaker 1: in terms of a possibility. Yeah, beyond that, let's go
Speaker 1: over too, because this is something that is also moving quickly,
Speaker 1: and that's token is socks. You also look at the
Speaker 1: surge in ardb A real world assets. This is a
Speaker 1: big deal. I mean, we are seeing literally a transformational
Speaker 1: shift in our financial system right now. What chains do
Speaker 1: you think win this race?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I'm still I'm still really big on
Speaker 3: x or p Ledger primarily for the financial chains. Sue
Speaker 3: is super interesting as well. You know, they're now so
Speaker 3: they just released the first you know, dollar based on
Speaker 3: the Sweet network, which I think is super interesting. And
Speaker 3: then also they're doing a lot of interesting things with
Speaker 3: the bitcoin network too, so I know that they're you know,
Speaker 3: they're exploring tokenizing hash rate for bitcoin mining companies as
Speaker 3: well as tokenizing bitcoin itself and a rap vehicle that
Speaker 3: moves along the Sweet network. These are really this is
Speaker 3: a really smart team. You know a lot of them
Speaker 3: came from Facebook when they were building Libra, and they've
Speaker 3: had all these ideas that they've been wanting to implement
Speaker 3: for a long time, and they finally have the chance
Speaker 3: to do it over at Miston Labs.
Speaker 2: So I'm just.
Speaker 3: I'm just super impressed by Sweet. It's what they're growing
Speaker 3: over there, and it's very technically feasible.
Speaker 1: I think some of the advancements they've made have have
Speaker 1: been good. I'm still a on the fence with Suite
Speaker 1: in the sense of does it have the distribution and
Speaker 1: the kind of network it needs to really kind of
Speaker 1: accelerate up because sometimes you could, and this has happened
Speaker 1: so many times in Silicon Valley, you can have one
Speaker 1: of the best products out there, but if you don't
Speaker 1: have distribution, then really you just don't have anything, you know,
Speaker 1: So that's always a concern on that. You look at eight,
Speaker 1: you look at XRP. I think those two are going
Speaker 1: to continue to be very and even Salata to a
Speaker 1: certain extent. So I don't know, I don't know, this
Speaker 1: is I'm on the fence with that one. Let's talk
Speaker 1: about Bitcoin though, and its current price. It plunged below
Speaker 1: seventy seven K. We saw eight XRP both slide these
Speaker 1: are I think they were around three percent in an overnight.
Speaker 1: So where do you put bitcoin this summer? Do you
Speaker 1: give me your low entry for Bitcoin for the summer?
Speaker 3: Yes, So, you know, we've had a bit of a
Speaker 3: rally in May, which is which has been fantastic, But
Speaker 3: I still believe the summer is going to be tough
Speaker 3: given uncertainty around midterms. So Bitcoin back down to sixty
Speaker 3: five isn't entirely shocking.
Speaker 2: To me, Okay, all right?
Speaker 3: And then and then rallying back up to you know,
Speaker 3: north of eighty, maybe even ninety by the end of
Speaker 3: the year also wouldn't be a big shock to me,
Speaker 3: but likely wouldn't happen until closer to midterms or after
Speaker 3: the midterms.
Speaker 1: Interesting, I've got a sixty seven k target right now
Speaker 1: with bitcoin. I'm not sure where that would put XRP
Speaker 1: or ethereum or even Solana, but that is the one
Speaker 1: I'm watching the most in terms of dictating how some
Speaker 1: of these assets are going to move, So you can
Speaker 1: kind of see where it's heading. But I agree with you,
Speaker 1: I think the summer is going to be a little
Speaker 1: bit more difficult for sure, and to your price prediction
Speaker 1: right here on XRP may explode now this guy is
Speaker 1: way out there compared to where you are. I wish,
Speaker 1: But wouldn't that be something that would be great for ETFs?
Speaker 1: People would be flying flying into ETFs if we saw
Speaker 1: that kind of price action. Let me ask you my
Speaker 1: last question here. When you have a market like this,
Speaker 1: a potential recession underway, high inflation. You know, these these
Speaker 1: yields at ridiculous rates right now, both of them, the
Speaker 1: ten and the thirty. What what happens for an investor
Speaker 1: to structure a strategy beyond that? So you're coming out
Speaker 1: of these bad things, right, and as we all know,
Speaker 1: wealth is made right at the cusp when everybody has
Speaker 1: lost hope and somebody is willing to risk, you know,
Speaker 1: knowing that, whether it's toward the end of recession or
Speaker 1: it's toward the end of an inflation cycle, what's the
Speaker 1: trigger that you think helps people go, oh, okay, this
Speaker 1: is it, this is the all end time.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Look, uh, I mean and right now, I mean I'm
Speaker 3: primarily in bond's right, so trading around you know.
Speaker 2: The short end.
Speaker 3: But it's going to be tough to see because again,
Speaker 3: there's there's there's there's a lot of variables and it's
Speaker 3: hard to predict how those variables are going to play out.
Speaker 3: You know, the the recent trip to China was a
Speaker 3: bit of a shocker to me as well. Yeah, you
Speaker 3: know that, you know, statements about Taiwan, the Iran war.
Speaker 2: I mean, these are.
Speaker 3: I would just say, these are extreme variables, and without
Speaker 3: knowing how they play out or what's going to happen,
Speaker 3: it's really hard to predict the macro markets. The things
Speaker 3: that we can look at though, is okay, what is
Speaker 3: what's the bond market going to do, what's you know,
Speaker 3: general stocks going to do, what's general crypto going to do?
Speaker 3: But I think some of these variables need to be
Speaker 3: removed before people and really start, you know, yeah, playing
Speaker 3: the markets again, so to speak.
Speaker 1: Well, you've got I'm showing the uh, the S, the
Speaker 1: sp X right here, we've seen this hit all time high.
Speaker 1: We continue to see up only but here over the
Speaker 1: last couple of days, a couple of red candles. But
Speaker 1: there are a lot of people that are still placing
Speaker 1: this above eight thousand for.
Speaker 2: The S and P.
Speaker 1: What do you what's your feeling on this?
Speaker 2: My feeling is I don't.
Speaker 3: Know that he's so ambivalent there, but it's it really
Speaker 3: is a wait and see. I don't know the type
Speaker 3: of situation you know. Do you do you want to
Speaker 3: be out of stocks entirely? No, But it is a
Speaker 3: it is a time precaution is it is a time
Speaker 3: to wait and see how other macro events play out.
Speaker 3: But I'm not betting the farm on the S and
Speaker 3: P right now.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that there's gold going the sideways a
Speaker 1: little bit over the past few three weeks. I guess
Speaker 1: it's been trading up and down slightly. But if we
Speaker 1: do get into those more horrendous financial conditions, this may
Speaker 1: be a play for sure. I'm still what is your
Speaker 1: theory on token ized gold or do you are you
Speaker 1: more of a physical guy or do you like the
Speaker 1: idea of tokenized gold.
Speaker 3: I don't really care about token ice gold. I like
Speaker 3: physical gold. I even like gold ETFs. But like I mean,
Speaker 3: if golditfs are available, why do you need token ized gold? Sure,
Speaker 3: there's no market for it. So there's a massive market
Speaker 3: for gold ETFs, So you need to sell you've got
Speaker 3: liquidity for for token ized gold. Who's going to buy
Speaker 3: it when you need liquidity? It's just there's a great
Speaker 3: two way market at the moment.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a little bit more more of an angle,
Speaker 1: even though I do think the dejons that are out
Speaker 1: there like to trade it, which isn't an obvious thing,
Speaker 1: especially if you look at the gold on that run
Speaker 1: up that we saw there. I mean, this was a
Speaker 1: fantastic run up on gold for you as seeing it
Speaker 1: coming in for back of August last year, almost a
Speaker 1: year into that cycle. Even though this cycle now does
Speaker 1: show a downward trend. But you think that could stop. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, but here's the other thing too. Gold usually
Speaker 1: rallies ahead of inflation and ahead of recession. Okay, it
Speaker 1: usually starts losing steam once those two things to occur.
Speaker 1: Now that we're moving into a real inflationary environment, gold
Speaker 1: has lost steam. But if recession starts heating up, I
Speaker 1: expect to see gold heat up into the recession and
Speaker 1: there once profession hits, people shou sell off the gold
Speaker 1: because they need money. Well, there you go, Steve, it's
Speaker 1: always fun having you on the show. Thanks for these insights,
Speaker 1: because I think right now it is a very unusual
Speaker 1: market and I think everybody's waiting for this clarity to
Speaker 1: go through. I'm still concerned that that's probably gonna end
Speaker 1: up with a little market bump and then a retracement
Speaker 1: back into the macro reality, which is where I see
Speaker 1: it going. But thanks for coming into that.
Speaker 2: We appreciate it. Thank you so much, Paul.
Speaker 3: You bet all right.
Speaker 1: You guys know what to do.
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Speaker 2: We'll catch you next
Speaker 1: Time right here on the x r PE pot check
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