Speaker 1: Hey thirty on a Tuesday. Regular listeners know it is
Speaker 1: that time for the Daniel Davis deep dive, tucking to
Speaker 1: retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis about, Oh my god, the
Speaker 1: whole world's coming unglued almost overnight. The world has changed,
Speaker 1: kind of like the fall of the Berlin Wall in Syria.
Speaker 1: Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It is a pleasure to have
Speaker 1: you on, particularly in these very interesting times.
Speaker 2: Well interesting times is an understatement, Yeah, it is. It
Speaker 2: is a lot of chaos and lots and lots of uncertainty.
Speaker 1: That's a fact. Well, and that's the bottom line. Everybody's
Speaker 1: got their popcorn out to find out what's going to
Speaker 1: happen after the fall of Bashar al Aside obviously he's
Speaker 1: been in civil war for thirteen years. The Iranians are
Speaker 1: heavily involved, the Russians are heavily involved. You got the
Speaker 1: Turkish involvement, you got the Israeli situation because you know
Speaker 1: the goal on Heights and the issues there. It's just
Speaker 1: in a mess. Charlie Foxtrot I think out of accurately
Speaker 1: summarizes it. But Ba Charlot's side bad guy, So nobody's
Speaker 1: really that disappointed that he's gone, considering his murderous regime.
Speaker 1: But what is gonna fill the void? Here? We had
Speaker 1: multiple factions of different organizations, some of them are the
Speaker 1: lo most fundamentalists. And okay, so the way I've been
Speaker 1: viewing it, and please correct me if you think this
Speaker 1: is an inaccurate assessment, the enemy of my enemy is
Speaker 1: my friends. You got all these different factions. We are
Speaker 1: more than happy to sort of fight collectively the Bashar
Speaker 1: al Assad regime. But now that he's gone, who fills
Speaker 1: the power void? Yeah, that's exactly the right, one hundred
Speaker 1: percent agree with you. I think your assessment is spought
Speaker 1: on because we had seen You may recall when the
Speaker 1: Obama administration had tried to affect the regime change in
Speaker 1: Syria with Bashar al Assade and we were, you know,
Speaker 1: funding all these allegedly moderate rebel groups which were nothing
Speaker 1: more than offshoots of al Qada and several other kinds
Speaker 1: of violent Islamic agreements. But hey, we were engaging in
Speaker 1: the friend of my enemy of my enemy is my
Speaker 1: friends situation.
Speaker 3: So we were funding all these groups. But you famously remember.
Speaker 2: That some of the Obama CIA funds went to one group,
Speaker 2: some of the Obama Pentagon funds went to another group,
Speaker 2: and then they end up turning on each other, and
Speaker 2: so they were as distracted as anybody else. Well, this
Speaker 2: guy here appears to have figured out how to solve
Speaker 2: part of that problem by getting all these different factions
Speaker 2: working together, or at least he assembled enough factions that
Speaker 2: could effectively work together. And so they did, and then
Speaker 2: they started this march. But then because of the absolute
Speaker 2: rot of the internal security forces in Syria, they basically
Speaker 2: just marched on the capitol, not unlick the Taliban did
Speaker 2: against the Afghanistan security forces because of the rot there,
Speaker 2: and there wasn't even much fighting, and it was very
Speaker 2: similar how those two things came about. But now comes
Speaker 2: the real question. This guy is saying. Jolani, the leader
Speaker 2: of the HTS that was the umbrella group over all
Speaker 2: this has said, you know, hey, we're kind of modern now.
Speaker 3: We just want to govern.
Speaker 2: We don't want to start this Islamic caliphaith that's going
Speaker 2: to suppress all these people, all these Christians and drus
Speaker 2: and you know, other kinds of minorities.
Speaker 3: They're fine, we're not going to harm them.
Speaker 2: But that's not what he said earlier in his career
Speaker 2: in twenty fourteen, he said almost exact opposite.
Speaker 3: So now it's going to depend on what happens later on.
Speaker 2: I'm guessing that he's going to act like a good
Speaker 2: guy for now. But we'll see if this coalition holds together,
Speaker 2: as you just mentioned, and then we'll see whoever comes out.
Speaker 2: Do they still have that same moderate view or do
Speaker 2: they go Taliban esque and start changing when they get
Speaker 2: into power.
Speaker 1: Well, during this period of absolute dysfunction, I mean I
Speaker 1: just talked with Joe Pollock from Breitbart, and the Israelis
Speaker 1: retook that base that Siria had and the goal on Heights,
Speaker 1: which of course helps Israel in terms of its security.
Speaker 1: The Turks now have an opportunity to advance into this
Speaker 1: you know, disarray, this this defenseless region, and they've course
Speaker 1: had their eyes on the situation for a while. And
Speaker 1: the Turks, I understand, will be very influential on a
Speaker 1: going forward basis to see who actually comes into power.
Speaker 1: Iranians it looks like they pulled the plug. The Russians
Speaker 1: looks like they pulled the plug. So you don't have
Speaker 1: them coming to the aid of the sad regime. And
Speaker 1: I'm not sure where either of those two countries thin
Speaker 1: to the equation now, because their hands seem to be full.
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I'm just kind of at a law.
Speaker 1: That's why I say, am a popkar. It is going
Speaker 1: to be out for a long time on this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: See.
Speaker 2: Interestingly, so Israel has done more than just you know,
Speaker 2: secure the gold on hots. They're actually, as of this morning,
Speaker 2: continuing to move closer to Damascus, and we don't know
Speaker 2: how far they're going to go yet, how much territory
Speaker 2: they're going to take, what they're gonna do with it.
Speaker 2: They have been bombing incessantly throughout Syria and destroying all
Speaker 2: kinds of ammunition, deposed weapons, e posts, basically just crushing
Speaker 2: the ability of anyone to rise up to even use
Speaker 2: this for the foreseeable future. Right then in the north
Speaker 2: you have the Turks who have been the actual Turkish
Speaker 2: army has been making some in roads and they've had
Speaker 2: troops in Syria for a long time, and there's Turkish back.
Speaker 2: Here's the biggest problem for US is moving more aggressively
Speaker 2: against the Syrian democratic forces our proxy. So you have
Speaker 2: two NATO countries has proxies going against each other in
Speaker 2: the north east part of Syria, and this just has
Speaker 2: a lot of opportunities.
Speaker 3: To go bad.
Speaker 2: There's already a lot of bad blood between the US
Speaker 2: and Turkey on a number of other fronts. And you know,
Speaker 2: obviously Turkey and Israel are not on the best of
Speaker 2: terms as well. So there's you may need a bucket
Speaker 2: of popcorn for this one.
Speaker 1: And maybe it's fair exactly well, insofar as the Turks concern,
Speaker 1: is this a potential opportunity to perhaps right the ship
Speaker 1: a little bit in terms of our relations with Turkey.
Speaker 1: Could a Trump administration sort of, you know, diplomatically reach
Speaker 1: out in an effort to you know, forestall the Turks
Speaker 1: supporting some radical Islamic form of government in Syria.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2: That's gonna be tough to do, because the air to
Speaker 2: one is an opportunities and he will exploit any and
Speaker 2: everybody he can, and he'll work with somebody only to
Speaker 2: the extent gives him benefit. And if Trump doesn't come
Speaker 2: in and have some benefit for him, then he's probably
Speaker 2: not very willing to do that. And Trump has got
Speaker 2: a difficult task to navigate with the Syrian democratic forces
Speaker 2: because does he just say okay, everything that we've done
Speaker 2: up to this point, to include when he supported them
Speaker 2: during his first term, that now he's just gonna say, okay, well,
Speaker 2: aired one wants to so you guys are all on
Speaker 2: your own.
Speaker 3: We're gonna withdraw all our guys and good luck to
Speaker 3: you now.
Speaker 2: I will say that that should be the first thing
Speaker 2: he does, is withdraw our troops for our sake. But
Speaker 2: it's gonna be it's gonna, I don't deny, it's gonna
Speaker 2: be a tough play to what do you do with
Speaker 2: the Syrian Democratic forces? Do you give them some other
Speaker 2: kind of support? Do you negotiate something with AIRED one?
Speaker 2: And what if air to one doesn't do it and
Speaker 2: they literally kill thousands upon thousands of the Kurds in
Speaker 2: that area?
Speaker 1: It could get ugly, very ugly. And insofar as israel
Speaker 1: I know they've been striking chemical weapons facilities, rocket missile
Speaker 1: arsenals to to you know, again, take away any ability
Speaker 1: of whatever future government might have to launch it against them.
Speaker 1: Some have suggested that by doing so, that frees up
Speaker 1: the airspace and gives them free reiin to hit Iran
Speaker 1: and maybe wipe out the Iranian nuclear program during this
Speaker 1: period of time before Trump's takes over. Any thoughts on
Speaker 1: that theory, Yeah.
Speaker 2: There's I mean practical whether that was the intention or not,
Speaker 2: that certainly is the effect because now then there's no
Speaker 2: Serian to even worry about what the air defense or
Speaker 2: anything else, and they have destroyed much of what might
Speaker 2: have existed on top of all the other targets that
Speaker 2: they've been servicing. But and you've had Jack Keen on
Speaker 2: Fox News a couple of days ago, it recommend exactly
Speaker 2: that that Trump should go in and basically go to
Speaker 2: war with Iran, which I'm one hundred percent against. That
Speaker 2: is not a good play. We do not need to
Speaker 2: go to war with Iran. In fact, what all this
Speaker 2: has shown is that Iran is substantially weaker than we thought,
Speaker 2: and now they're even weaker still the area. Oh, they
Speaker 2: are no threat to us, So going to war with
Speaker 2: them gains us absolutely nothing and could cost us a
Speaker 2: great deal. So we can contain them. We do not
Speaker 2: need to go to war with Iran.
Speaker 1: Well, I like hearing that because I don't want to
Speaker 1: engage in another war. But let's face it, the Israelis
Speaker 1: told the Biden administration where to go. They went and
Speaker 1: defended themselves, They went into the uh Uh to Gaza.
Speaker 1: They dealt with the the Huthis and the Hama or
Speaker 1: Hesbala and Hamas very successfully. So maybe maybe Israel just decides,
Speaker 1: you know what, well, Iran is weak, while Siria is decimated,
Speaker 1: We're just going to blow up ourselves some nuclear facilities.
Speaker 1: So there's that, There's that military angle, But then there's
Speaker 1: also the question I have burning in the back of
Speaker 1: my head as I read about the Israel strikes on
Speaker 1: the on the chemical weapons facilities. Isn't there any collateral
Speaker 1: concern about blowing up chemical weapons facilities and releasing the
Speaker 1: chemical weapons out into the atmosphere. Same question goes for
Speaker 1: radiation when you're bombing all these centrifuges. Is that is
Speaker 1: that a legitimate concern?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it absolutely is.
Speaker 2: But that also causes me to to be a little
Speaker 2: skeptical that there are all of these chemical weapons factories,
Speaker 2: you know, and all the places here, because that's exactly
Speaker 2: what you would see you released into the air. It
Speaker 2: can't be any other way, and at least so far,
Speaker 2: and there's plenty of international organizations that monitor that stuff
Speaker 2: that we haven't had any reports of that. I think
Speaker 2: all the targets up to this point have genuinely been military.
Speaker 3: Targets the regime.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm talking about tanks and artillery pieces, conventional
Speaker 2: weapons depots, arms depots, et cetera.
Speaker 3: So I don't think that's going on.
Speaker 2: I will say though, that don't get too much ahead
Speaker 2: of our sales on the Israeli success, because they have
Speaker 2: had enormous tactical success, it's spectacularly so. But the medium
Speaker 2: and long term issues because none of the issues that
Speaker 2: will caused ten to seven, for example, have been resolved,
Speaker 2: and a lot of the civilians that have been killed
Speaker 2: in Lebanon and in the West Bank, in the Gaza,
Speaker 2: there's going to be some medium and long term difficulties
Speaker 2: for Israel to have to navigate what's happened as a
Speaker 2: result of those.
Speaker 1: So they're not out of the woods by any Daniel
Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive. Enjoy talking to you every week, and wow,
Speaker 1: we've got an entire year's worth of conversation just sticking
Speaker 1: with this one subject matter. You know or maybe not.
Speaker 1: We're gonna find out together again. Your bucket of popcorns out,
Speaker 1: mine's out, and I will enjoy another conversation with you
Speaker 1: next Tuesday. Between now and then, my friend will encourage
Speaker 1: my listeners to search for your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep
Speaker 1: Dive and tune in next Tuesday for another another discussion.
Speaker 1: Take care of my good friend.
Speaker 3: Always my pleasure, my friend.
Speaker 1: See next week. Take care. It's a forty fifty five KR.
Speaker 1: See the talk station. Got my buddy John Roman coming up.
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