WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.400 --> 00:00:04.160 I think that as long as the dry powder is 2 00:00:04.200 --> 00:00:08.400 going up here with top exchange addresses just holding more 3 00:00:08.439 --> 00:00:13.439 and more stable coins, it's indicative of the buying power 4 00:00:13.919 --> 00:00:16.480 clearly being ready to shoot us right back above one 5 00:00:16.519 --> 00:00:20.760 hundred K, and the limited cell power right now from 6 00:00:20.760 --> 00:00:24.000 Bitcoin is only going to strengthen that argument. 7 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:32.359 Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host Tony Edward, 8 00:00:32.359 --> 00:00:35.119 and my guest today is Brian from Santiment and folks, 9 00:00:35.159 --> 00:00:37.679 you all know we're going to cover crypto metrics. We're 10 00:00:37.679 --> 00:00:39.719 going to do a deep dive on Bitcoin, XRP and 11 00:00:39.759 --> 00:00:41.960 all coins to give you the lay of the land 12 00:00:42.000 --> 00:00:46.399 and what's happening using data. Brian, great to see you, Good. 13 00:00:46.200 --> 00:00:50.320 To see you, Tony. We're back after I think three 14 00:00:50.399 --> 00:00:53.320 weeks off here together, but I'm excited to talk about 15 00:00:54.240 --> 00:00:57.759 lots of different price changes. The party has at least 16 00:00:57.960 --> 00:01:01.600 temporarily come to an end, and I think that's changed 17 00:01:01.840 --> 00:01:03.520 the outlook from. 18 00:01:03.280 --> 00:01:06.799 A lot of the retail traders out there absolutely, And 19 00:01:07.319 --> 00:01:10.079 we saw incredible price run ups were Bitcoin and many 20 00:01:10.120 --> 00:01:13.359 all coins, and now we're having that pullback, cool down phase. 21 00:01:13.400 --> 00:01:15.200 So we want to look at the data to see 22 00:01:15.200 --> 00:01:18.239 what's happening. You know, what was your first thought or 23 00:01:18.239 --> 00:01:21.319 impression of bitcoin cracking one hundred thousand dollars? 24 00:01:21.840 --> 00:01:26.760 Yeah, I mean, I think because of my time spent 25 00:01:26.879 --> 00:01:30.480 at santiment, my first thought was, honestly, this is really cool, 26 00:01:30.519 --> 00:01:34.319 it's super historic. Now, how greedy is the crowd coin? Again? 27 00:01:34.560 --> 00:01:34.760 Right? 28 00:01:34.879 --> 00:01:39.319 Because once they start to show euphoria and a lot 29 00:01:39.319 --> 00:01:41.840 of fomo, that's usually when the party comes to an end. 30 00:01:43.000 --> 00:01:45.560 So we saw a little bit of that, which I'll 31 00:01:45.640 --> 00:01:48.200 show in the graphs here in a moment, but it 32 00:01:48.319 --> 00:01:51.000 wasn't to an extreme degree, not like we saw in 33 00:01:51.079 --> 00:01:54.159 like twenty seventeen or twenty twenty one. So now that 34 00:01:54.280 --> 00:01:59.439 we've fallen back down, now my opposite question is is 35 00:01:59.480 --> 00:02:02.079 the crowd get getting too scared? And if so, we 36 00:02:02.159 --> 00:02:05.239 can be bouncing right back up because prices move the 37 00:02:05.239 --> 00:02:07.400 opposite direction of crowds expectations. 38 00:02:07.959 --> 00:02:11.240 Absolutely, So how about you show us the charts and 39 00:02:11.280 --> 00:02:14.039 we can start at looking at the sentiment around when 40 00:02:14.080 --> 00:02:16.280 bitcoin hit one hundred k and what it is now 41 00:02:16.319 --> 00:02:17.159 with this pullback. 42 00:02:18.080 --> 00:02:20.199 Let's do it all, right, So just looking at the 43 00:02:20.199 --> 00:02:26.080 past week here, So the obvious story that pops out 44 00:02:26.199 --> 00:02:29.879 is price is definitely corrected. Bitcoin's actually about right where 45 00:02:29.879 --> 00:02:32.199 it was a week ago, actually up about a half 46 00:02:32.240 --> 00:02:35.560 a percent, believe it or not. Because we have that 47 00:02:35.759 --> 00:02:39.400 early dip last week where we got to the low 48 00:02:39.479 --> 00:02:43.719 ninety four k's almost the exact same thing happened this week. 49 00:02:43.759 --> 00:02:45.800 We got to like ninety four point three, ninety four 50 00:02:45.800 --> 00:02:48.960 point four. Currently at the time of this recording, we've 51 00:02:48.960 --> 00:02:51.439 actually bounced a little bit back, just shy of ninety 52 00:02:51.479 --> 00:02:55.400 six k. But most assets, especially the ones that have 53 00:02:55.479 --> 00:03:00.400 been really partying hard, a lot of those og large 54 00:03:00.400 --> 00:03:05.479 caps like XRP, Cardono here, they're both down about twenty percent, 55 00:03:05.960 --> 00:03:08.400 Stellar another one. These were kind of the big three 56 00:03:08.520 --> 00:03:12.240 that a lot of people were noticing during those like 57 00:03:12.360 --> 00:03:15.120 five x six x breakouts that each of them had 58 00:03:15.479 --> 00:03:19.840 throughout November. So call it regression to the mean. But 59 00:03:19.960 --> 00:03:22.280 a lot of those same assets that we're doing really 60 00:03:22.319 --> 00:03:25.639 well are now kind of letting the math be the 61 00:03:25.680 --> 00:03:29.599 math and coming back down a little more than the 62 00:03:29.639 --> 00:03:32.080 rest of the ald coin pack at this time. 63 00:03:33.319 --> 00:03:36.199 Yeah, that makes sense. Some of these had incredible run 64 00:03:36.319 --> 00:03:41.560 ups and really many parabolic run ups where you might 65 00:03:41.599 --> 00:03:43.800 see something like that near to top, but we're not 66 00:03:43.879 --> 00:03:47.400 near to top, you know. Based on different metrics, and 67 00:03:47.479 --> 00:03:51.159 this pullback I think is very healthy, very necessary for 68 00:03:51.240 --> 00:03:53.879 us to continue to go to higher prices. So I 69 00:03:53.919 --> 00:03:56.840 know there's a big leverage flush out and are you 70 00:03:56.879 --> 00:03:59.439 seeing some fear in the market, you know, with this 71 00:04:00.080 --> 00:04:01.039 significant pullback. 72 00:04:01.639 --> 00:04:03.560 Yeah, So we can talk about that a little bit. 73 00:04:03.719 --> 00:04:06.800 I pulled up this chart which I find pretty fascinating. 74 00:04:06.919 --> 00:04:11.319 It's measuring the amount of mentions of buy buying or 75 00:04:11.400 --> 00:04:15.120 bought with the combination of bitcoin or BTC in it. 76 00:04:15.560 --> 00:04:18.680 So naturally you would think when greed is starting to 77 00:04:18.720 --> 00:04:21.360 get really prevalent, these bars are going to go up. 78 00:04:21.720 --> 00:04:24.360 When it's starting to go down, the bars go down. 79 00:04:24.680 --> 00:04:27.560 And that's essentially what we've been seeing. We kind of peaked, 80 00:04:27.879 --> 00:04:31.759 if you you know, don't include the Trump pump that 81 00:04:31.879 --> 00:04:34.199 was going on in mid November where everyone was just 82 00:04:34.439 --> 00:04:39.199 very euphoric and got rewarded for that euphoria. We eventually 83 00:04:39.279 --> 00:04:43.920 hit this point here where on December fifth, people were 84 00:04:44.040 --> 00:04:47.240 enthusiastic about buying the dip. They got like a mini 85 00:04:47.759 --> 00:04:50.439 bounce right here that got them excited. And then you 86 00:04:50.480 --> 00:04:54.519 can see how the buy calls for bitcoin as well, 87 00:04:54.560 --> 00:04:58.079 by the way, as ethereum and mean coins, which are 88 00:04:58.120 --> 00:05:01.240 here in red and yellow, respectively. They're all kind of 89 00:05:01.399 --> 00:05:05.439 shrinking down now after really getting high during this dip 90 00:05:05.439 --> 00:05:09.120 in late November, one more hurrah in late December, and 91 00:05:09.560 --> 00:05:12.160 it looks like we're kind of at the most fearful 92 00:05:12.240 --> 00:05:14.439 point that we've been at for about a month now. 93 00:05:15.800 --> 00:05:20.920 It's funny, you know, it's smart investors. They look for 94 00:05:21.800 --> 00:05:24.600 fear and blood on the streets to buy. That's the 95 00:05:24.600 --> 00:05:27.439 time they're not tweeting about it, but they're actually doing it. 96 00:05:27.759 --> 00:05:30.600 But the real retail crowd will tweet out about buying 97 00:05:30.759 --> 00:05:32.920 when the things when the price is pumping, which is 98 00:05:33.040 --> 00:05:37.439 the wrong time exactly. It's funny how quiet the crowd 99 00:05:37.519 --> 00:05:40.439 is in terms of buying when the price is at 100 00:05:40.480 --> 00:05:43.920 fifty or sixty K, like it was what three months ago, 101 00:05:44.439 --> 00:05:46.319 and then how vocal they are when it's at one 102 00:05:46.439 --> 00:05:48.240 hundred K. You always scratch your head and you go, 103 00:05:48.800 --> 00:05:51.120 why didn't you say that before? You could have doubled 104 00:05:51.160 --> 00:05:56.120 your money. So it's fascinating the psychology of crypto and 105 00:05:56.160 --> 00:06:00.480 even advanced traders, and you know people who look at 106 00:06:00.560 --> 00:06:03.639 charts all day like you and I. I won't speak 107 00:06:03.680 --> 00:06:06.439 for you, but for me, like even I have that 108 00:06:06.680 --> 00:06:10.439 natural inclination to go like, oh, prices have been going 109 00:06:10.519 --> 00:06:13.959 up now, therefore they're more likely to continue going up 110 00:06:14.000 --> 00:06:18.360 as opposed to expecting prices to go up when we're 111 00:06:18.399 --> 00:06:21.160 on that huge downswing, especially when it's been going on 112 00:06:21.240 --> 00:06:24.240 for so long, like back in twenty twenty two, right 113 00:06:24.240 --> 00:06:27.240 before the FTX collapse and all that stuff came out. 114 00:06:28.319 --> 00:06:32.279 Yeah, and it took me years to unlearn that herd mentality, 115 00:06:32.519 --> 00:06:34.920 you know, watching financial news and to look at the 116 00:06:35.040 --> 00:06:37.399 charts and to do the opposite of the herd. And 117 00:06:38.199 --> 00:06:41.759 was it challenging, of course, But I've been rewarded for 118 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:45.120 doing that, buying the blood, buying the fear. So come 119 00:06:45.160 --> 00:06:47.879 December twenty twenty two, I was buying bitcoin at sixteen 120 00:06:47.920 --> 00:06:52.920 seventeen K early January twenty twenty three. So I say 121 00:06:52.959 --> 00:06:56.040 that not to boast, but to help others understand this 122 00:06:56.120 --> 00:06:59.160 is how this is investing. It's not running with the herd. 123 00:06:59.439 --> 00:07:02.120 They're usually coming in with that dumb money crowd, which. 124 00:07:02.120 --> 00:07:04.120 Yeah, that turn up, but it is what it is. 125 00:07:04.720 --> 00:07:08.480 And congrats, by the way, that's incredible that you were 126 00:07:08.639 --> 00:07:10.519 one of the few that was bind during that time. 127 00:07:11.800 --> 00:07:14.759 But I was going to say the blood in the 128 00:07:14.800 --> 00:07:18.279 streets saying you know that Warren Buffett kind of made 129 00:07:18.279 --> 00:07:22.360 famous in the traditional equities markets. There's a reason for that, 130 00:07:22.560 --> 00:07:26.639 especially in crypto. There's a reason why people who buy 131 00:07:26.680 --> 00:07:28.800 when there's blood in the streets tend to get rewarded. 132 00:07:28.839 --> 00:07:33.920 For one, there's the simple math explanation where what goes 133 00:07:33.959 --> 00:07:36.600 down usually goes up. What goes up usually goes down, 134 00:07:36.639 --> 00:07:40.079 and crypto is obviously here to stay. Anyone who doesn't 135 00:07:40.120 --> 00:07:44.480 believe that, who's watching this video, you know, watch a 136 00:07:44.519 --> 00:07:47.519 few videos and read a few books, and I guarantee 137 00:07:47.560 --> 00:07:50.240 you you'll find something that eventually changes your mind on that. 138 00:07:50.720 --> 00:07:53.959 But when you do see a lot of blood in 139 00:07:54.000 --> 00:07:57.759 the streets, right, the vocal majority, they're not the whales. 140 00:07:57.800 --> 00:08:01.319 Those are the retail traders who are selling off, running 141 00:08:01.360 --> 00:08:05.319 around like chickens with their heads cut off, explaining that 142 00:08:06.079 --> 00:08:09.519 bitcoin's dead and you should believe them and follow their 143 00:08:09.600 --> 00:08:12.439 lead and all this. Well, who's buying those coins, right, 144 00:08:12.480 --> 00:08:17.120 They're not just disappearing when they're selling them. They're going 145 00:08:17.160 --> 00:08:21.680 into the large wallets, which might be exchange wallets. Yes, 146 00:08:21.800 --> 00:08:24.639 but it's also a lot of whales that just have 147 00:08:24.720 --> 00:08:29.079 these huge limit buys that are being fired off because 148 00:08:29.079 --> 00:08:32.559 of all the small retail wallets that are selling off 149 00:08:32.600 --> 00:08:36.799 their fractions of coins hundreds or thousands or tens of 150 00:08:36.840 --> 00:08:40.000 thousands at a time, and making the whale wallets richer. 151 00:08:40.440 --> 00:08:46.159 And then the whales, when necessary, use their heavy hands 152 00:08:46.200 --> 00:08:49.559 and heavy bags to push prices up further and punish 153 00:08:49.600 --> 00:08:51.840 all of the people who are capitulating. And that's kind 154 00:08:51.840 --> 00:08:56.639 of the psychology behind it and the real explanation as 155 00:08:56.679 --> 00:09:00.399 to why prices typically move the opposite direct of the 156 00:09:00.440 --> 00:09:02.919 crowd's beliefs at any time. 157 00:09:03.559 --> 00:09:06.120 Absolutely so, speaking of whales, can we take a look 158 00:09:06.159 --> 00:09:09.279 at what whales are doing as far as accumulation and 159 00:09:09.720 --> 00:09:12.240 even supply and exchanges and so forth. 160 00:09:12.679 --> 00:09:15.720 Totally so. One of my favorite charts that I think 161 00:09:15.759 --> 00:09:18.120 we almost always go over on this call is just 162 00:09:18.240 --> 00:09:24.360 the overall collective holdings of any wallets that are ten 163 00:09:24.480 --> 00:09:28.720 BTC or greater. It's obviously a very widespread way of 164 00:09:28.799 --> 00:09:33.679 looking at the supply distribution a bitcoin, but it gives 165 00:09:33.679 --> 00:09:37.759 you a good understanding between all the exchange addresses and 166 00:09:37.799 --> 00:09:41.320 all the real sharks and whales out there that are 167 00:09:41.440 --> 00:09:45.279 accumulating or dumping at any time, getting an idea of 168 00:09:45.320 --> 00:09:49.759 what they're doing. And how much it correlates with prices. 169 00:09:50.000 --> 00:09:54.039 It's pretty fascinating and it's always been the case, and 170 00:09:54.080 --> 00:09:57.639 you can see especially right around November fourth, this was 171 00:09:58.240 --> 00:10:01.600 literally the twenty four hour period that Trump had been 172 00:10:01.639 --> 00:10:04.360 elected right here, and you can see how they really 173 00:10:04.399 --> 00:10:09.519 just started accumulating aggressively right as that news broke. Now 174 00:10:09.519 --> 00:10:12.000 it is slowing down a little bit. In fact, when 175 00:10:12.039 --> 00:10:15.440 I refreshed this like ten hours ago, I was actually 176 00:10:15.519 --> 00:10:20.480 seeing the first downtick in about two months since like 177 00:10:20.600 --> 00:10:23.559 October fourteenth. That would be the last time we saw 178 00:10:23.559 --> 00:10:27.600 an actual like drop like way back here tenth or so. 179 00:10:27.600 --> 00:10:31.279 So now we're up here, it's up again, meaning that 180 00:10:31.559 --> 00:10:35.159 as of today, this current twenty four hour cycle, there's 181 00:10:35.200 --> 00:10:38.080 actually started to be a little more accumulation once again. 182 00:10:38.480 --> 00:10:41.399 Perhaps prices going below ninety five k was enough to 183 00:10:41.399 --> 00:10:45.639 get whales and sharks interested again, but regardless, we're not 184 00:10:46.639 --> 00:10:50.080 quite seeing the same level of accumulation. It's just flattening 185 00:10:50.080 --> 00:10:53.879 out a tiny bit. So if you're worried that we're 186 00:10:53.919 --> 00:10:57.799 about to see a huge collapse, one thing that kind 187 00:10:57.799 --> 00:11:02.120 of validates that that probably won't happen is when the 188 00:11:02.159 --> 00:11:05.240 whale whiles continue to go up collectively. 189 00:11:05.600 --> 00:11:07.799 Yeah, that makes sense because we saw a lot of 190 00:11:07.840 --> 00:11:12.360 long term holders were selling bigcoin at near one hundred thousand, 191 00:11:12.399 --> 00:11:14.480 and then of course you've crossed one hundred thousand, you 192 00:11:14.559 --> 00:11:16.679 touch one hundred and three, there's going to be some 193 00:11:16.720 --> 00:11:19.840 folks who are selling, whether it's traders or whoever it else. 194 00:11:19.960 --> 00:11:21.840 And I think there were showing some wallets that have 195 00:11:21.840 --> 00:11:23.720 been around for eight to ten years, right, people have 196 00:11:23.759 --> 00:11:26.159 been holding, they haven't moved it, and there was some 197 00:11:26.960 --> 00:11:30.000 distribution there, so it makes sense. But to your point, 198 00:11:30.120 --> 00:11:33.799 with this pullback, many of these whales could start buying 199 00:11:33.799 --> 00:11:36.519 the dips so to speak, and holding for maybe the 200 00:11:36.559 --> 00:11:38.320 final leg of this bullmarket. 201 00:11:39.120 --> 00:11:42.159 Yeah, you touched on literally the next point I wanted 202 00:11:42.200 --> 00:11:45.399 to make, and that is exactly how the dormant, older 203 00:11:45.480 --> 00:11:49.000 stagnant coins are looking right now. And this is an 204 00:11:49.120 --> 00:11:54.960 extremely good boat of confidence because this line here that 205 00:11:55.080 --> 00:11:58.320 will make a little more prominent here an orange. It 206 00:11:58.480 --> 00:12:01.320 indicates the average a in which coins have been sitting 207 00:12:01.320 --> 00:12:04.840 in their wallets. It's called mean dollar invested age. Sentiment's 208 00:12:04.879 --> 00:12:07.480 been using it for about four or five years now, 209 00:12:08.440 --> 00:12:12.080 and basically the theory that's been back tested and proven 210 00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:16.000 time and time again is that when this line moves 211 00:12:16.039 --> 00:12:21.039 down and coins get younger, it's indicative of older large 212 00:12:21.240 --> 00:12:24.759 shark and whale wall. It's moving their stagnant coins back 213 00:12:24.840 --> 00:12:29.919 into circulation, thus creating more network activity and allowing a 214 00:12:30.039 --> 00:12:34.919 bull market to essentially bull to allow it to come 215 00:12:34.960 --> 00:12:39.480 to fruition and continue. And we've seen over history, if 216 00:12:39.480 --> 00:12:42.600 I go back to like twenty sixteen, we'll go back 217 00:12:42.639 --> 00:12:45.799 eight years here in every bull cycle. I know these 218 00:12:45.919 --> 00:12:48.919 green bars representing the price or small way back here, 219 00:12:49.320 --> 00:12:52.720 but you can see how the mean dollar invested age 220 00:12:52.799 --> 00:12:56.000 way back in twenty sixteen started to move down and 221 00:12:56.080 --> 00:12:59.360 continued all all the way until the bull market was 222 00:12:59.639 --> 00:13:03.159 just ending here in mid December twenty seventeen, and then 223 00:13:03.200 --> 00:13:04.960 all of a sudden, you see it start to rise. 224 00:13:05.440 --> 00:13:08.559 This rise indicates that these stagnant coins are becoming more 225 00:13:08.559 --> 00:13:11.480 and more stagnant again, and then we see the price 226 00:13:11.840 --> 00:13:16.600 doing this and going down over time until we see 227 00:13:16.600 --> 00:13:20.000 another poolmarket mini one right here in May twenty nineteen, 228 00:13:20.080 --> 00:13:24.480 and then another one in late twenty twenty as COVID 229 00:13:24.639 --> 00:13:28.320 was really starting to invoke a ton of fear in 230 00:13:28.360 --> 00:13:30.559 the markets, and then we kind of went on this 231 00:13:30.720 --> 00:13:36.639 long stagnant cycle here until October November of twenty twenty three, 232 00:13:37.120 --> 00:13:39.559 and ever since then. You can see how the price 233 00:13:39.600 --> 00:13:42.279 has exploded. If I hold down shift and I just 234 00:13:42.320 --> 00:13:46.080 go to the right, you can see on the left 235 00:13:46.200 --> 00:13:49.440 top left side of my screen the ten plus BTC 236 00:13:49.600 --> 00:13:53.879 wallets since mid October of last year have accumulated three 237 00:13:54.000 --> 00:13:57.279 hundred and twenty five thousand bitcoin and the mean dollar 238 00:13:57.320 --> 00:14:00.759 invested age has dropped just about one hundred and ninety 239 00:14:00.799 --> 00:14:05.159 eight days on average, meaning during this bull market stretch. 240 00:14:05.200 --> 00:14:07.679 If you want to call this fourteen month cycle a 241 00:14:07.759 --> 00:14:12.519 stretch of bullish momentum, which I think you should, the 242 00:14:13.639 --> 00:14:16.720 decrease or the age in which coins have been sitting 243 00:14:16.799 --> 00:14:20.360 in their wallets has decreased decreased by almost one third, 244 00:14:20.600 --> 00:14:23.519 which is just a ton and helps validate that we 245 00:14:23.679 --> 00:14:26.240 are still in a bull cycle long term. 246 00:14:26.879 --> 00:14:30.639 This is such an interesting metric. I need to get 247 00:14:30.879 --> 00:14:35.519 this chart from you to bookmarket definitely telling you just 248 00:14:35.559 --> 00:14:38.960 see it from the macro and what's happening now in 249 00:14:39.000 --> 00:14:42.200 regards to supply and exchanges. Are you continuing to see 250 00:14:42.519 --> 00:14:44.080 that decline as well? 251 00:14:44.960 --> 00:14:48.200 Yeah, it's looked pretty good. It's little zoom in a 252 00:14:48.240 --> 00:14:51.639 little bit here just to the last three months, But overall, 253 00:14:51.679 --> 00:14:55.600 it's it's business as usual. Bitcoin just continuing over time 254 00:14:56.159 --> 00:15:01.000 to move off of known exchange wallets and into cold storage, 255 00:15:01.679 --> 00:15:04.279 which is more a good thing than a bad thing. 256 00:15:04.320 --> 00:15:07.200 The bad argument is that if they're sitting around for 257 00:15:07.240 --> 00:15:10.360 a long time, they can't circulate and it tends to 258 00:15:10.720 --> 00:15:16.200 create stagnation, whereas if they're on exchanges it implies that 259 00:15:16.240 --> 00:15:19.360 there's going to be a little more network movement. But overall, 260 00:15:19.440 --> 00:15:23.200 the reason it's good is because when there are less 261 00:15:23.240 --> 00:15:27.759 coins on exchanges, there is a decreased chance of future 262 00:15:27.919 --> 00:15:31.639 mass selloffs, especially by whales, who make up a very 263 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:35.840 large chunk of this supply in exchanges, as you would imagine, 264 00:15:36.200 --> 00:15:38.919 So it's continuing to move down. If we go back 265 00:15:38.960 --> 00:15:44.039 to around, let's just go exactly three months ago, the 266 00:15:44.120 --> 00:15:47.480 supplant exchanges has dropped by about one point four percent, 267 00:15:48.360 --> 00:15:51.360 which is great. And on top of that, the tether 268 00:15:52.039 --> 00:15:55.919 and USD coin supplies on exchanges the top two stable 269 00:15:55.919 --> 00:15:59.279 coins in crypto by market cap. They're continuing to rise. 270 00:16:00.480 --> 00:16:02.960 Usdc's kind of being a little choppy right now, but 271 00:16:03.039 --> 00:16:07.519 you can see tether and red here since just November fourth, 272 00:16:07.639 --> 00:16:14.120 the night before Trump was elected. It was, it was 273 00:16:14.200 --> 00:16:18.639 sitting at twenty five point three five billion on supply 274 00:16:19.639 --> 00:16:24.399 of coins on exchanges, and now it's at about forty 275 00:16:24.440 --> 00:16:27.960 point seventy nine billion. And this, by the way, is 276 00:16:28.279 --> 00:16:31.799 supply held by top exchange addresses. So for stable coins, 277 00:16:32.120 --> 00:16:36.240 we're specifically looking at just the ten largest wallets and 278 00:16:36.240 --> 00:16:38.879 how much they're holding, so you can see just what 279 00:16:39.000 --> 00:16:43.159 a massive increase it's been for the tether and supply 280 00:16:43.200 --> 00:16:47.360 and USD coin top exchange wallets, you know. 281 00:16:47.759 --> 00:16:49.559 So I'm assuming as soon as we start to see 282 00:16:49.559 --> 00:16:52.559 an updick V shaped recovery, if you want to call 283 00:16:52.639 --> 00:16:55.440 that brain, it's gonna we gotta start sounding the alarms 284 00:16:55.440 --> 00:16:56.159 a bit, right. 285 00:16:56.759 --> 00:17:01.759 Yeah, I think. I think that as long as the 286 00:17:02.039 --> 00:17:06.640 dry powder is going up here with top exchange addresses 287 00:17:06.680 --> 00:17:10.200 just holding more and more stable coins, it's indicative of, 288 00:17:11.160 --> 00:17:14.440 you know, the buying power clearly being ready to shoot 289 00:17:14.519 --> 00:17:18.079 us right back above one hundred K, and the limited 290 00:17:18.160 --> 00:17:21.880 cell power right now from Bitcoin is only going to 291 00:17:21.920 --> 00:17:24.119 strengthen that argument. So yeah, I'm with you. 292 00:17:25.240 --> 00:17:28.359 Wow, this is why I love the data. Man. No feelings, 293 00:17:28.400 --> 00:17:31.680 no emotions, What is happening? What are the whales doing? 294 00:17:31.839 --> 00:17:35.640 It's it really tells the clear story of what where 295 00:17:35.640 --> 00:17:39.319 we're at and what we can anticipate. Now, let's talk 296 00:17:39.319 --> 00:17:43.759 about XRP because we've been seeing incredible price movement. I 297 00:17:43.799 --> 00:17:45.880 don't know what's going on this cycle, but there's a 298 00:17:46.039 --> 00:17:49.039 ton of retail interests. You look at Google trends, I'm 299 00:17:49.079 --> 00:17:52.839 seeing XRP being mentioned on random YouTube channels that have 300 00:17:53.160 --> 00:17:56.519 they're not cryptospecifics, so there's a lot of retail hype here. 301 00:17:57.319 --> 00:18:01.160 Yeah, it's funny what a crazy thirty day run will do. 302 00:18:01.359 --> 00:18:04.599 Even after this little retrace here we've seen it's still 303 00:18:04.680 --> 00:18:07.200 up about three hundred and twenty nine percent in the 304 00:18:07.240 --> 00:18:12.359 past month from its top roughly about eight days ago. 305 00:18:12.440 --> 00:18:14.680 The price is down about fifteen and a half percent. 306 00:18:15.240 --> 00:18:21.519 But just between November twenty fifth to December tewod to 307 00:18:21.519 --> 00:18:23.519 call it about a week, give or take a day 308 00:18:23.640 --> 00:18:27.640 or two, it went up more than double just in 309 00:18:27.680 --> 00:18:30.480 this one little stretch here, And you can see how 310 00:18:30.519 --> 00:18:34.960 the top really was precisely called by the amount of 311 00:18:35.000 --> 00:18:38.680 transaction volume here, and we can even see how it's matched. 312 00:18:39.440 --> 00:18:42.720 We make sure these are one day candles here, it's 313 00:18:42.839 --> 00:18:46.880 matched by the high spike and daily active addresses and circulation. 314 00:18:47.440 --> 00:18:51.039 This wasn't necessarily like this massive warning sign. I think 315 00:18:51.039 --> 00:18:54.079 we all can agree that XRP, just like any other 316 00:18:54.119 --> 00:18:57.039 ald coin, is still going to be at the whim 317 00:18:57.160 --> 00:19:00.759 of Bitcoin being able to stay stable itself. And this 318 00:19:00.839 --> 00:19:05.079 is of course when Bitcoin started dropping also. But xrp's 319 00:19:05.200 --> 00:19:09.079 utility was showing just tons and tons of fomo signs. 320 00:19:09.519 --> 00:19:12.559 So there's a difference between like a gradual level of 321 00:19:12.599 --> 00:19:15.680 growth like we saw back here, and then just a sharp, 322 00:19:15.920 --> 00:19:21.079 like reactionary spike from all the fomoers who are suddenly 323 00:19:21.160 --> 00:19:24.920 moving XRP as a result of just the price instead 324 00:19:24.920 --> 00:19:30.240 of the fundamental opportunities that XRP provides that other all 325 00:19:30.319 --> 00:19:31.519 coins don't. 326 00:19:32.039 --> 00:19:37.000 Interesting and one other coin that was really going nuts 327 00:19:37.119 --> 00:19:40.599 was dogecoin as well. I think it was early November 328 00:19:40.599 --> 00:19:43.759 if I'm not mistaken or I remember the timeline, but 329 00:19:44.559 --> 00:19:48.519 dogecoin was really rallying hard the same thing. You had 330 00:19:48.519 --> 00:19:51.319 a lot of retail being drawn in because of its 331 00:19:51.359 --> 00:19:51.960 price movement. 332 00:19:52.680 --> 00:19:56.400 Yeah, I mean there were a few reasons. Meme coin 333 00:19:56.519 --> 00:20:01.920 mania was going nuts as Bitcoin's price was beginning to climb, 334 00:20:02.000 --> 00:20:05.039 and every time there was a big step up or 335 00:20:05.079 --> 00:20:08.039 a new milestone made from Bitcoin a lot of that 336 00:20:08.119 --> 00:20:11.279 profit redistribution went straight into meme coins, and of course 337 00:20:11.319 --> 00:20:14.559 Doje being the king of the memes in terms of 338 00:20:14.599 --> 00:20:21.559 market capital least, it benefited greatly, especially after Trump was elected. 339 00:20:21.880 --> 00:20:25.960 As you remember, mister Elon Musk is a big doge 340 00:20:25.960 --> 00:20:28.279 coin fan, at least he memes about it a lot 341 00:20:28.319 --> 00:20:32.039 and talks about it a lot. So with him having 342 00:20:32.119 --> 00:20:37.279 his presidential candidate win the election, I think a lot 343 00:20:37.279 --> 00:20:40.519 of people had increased confidence, not just in crypto, but 344 00:20:40.599 --> 00:20:44.480 specifically in anything that Musk has been promoting over the 345 00:20:44.559 --> 00:20:48.119 last couple of years, and dose cooin was one of 346 00:20:48.119 --> 00:20:55.200 the biggest beneficiaries of the election result, going from was 347 00:20:55.240 --> 00:20:59.079 it about yeah, fifteen cents here in early November to 348 00:20:59.319 --> 00:21:05.839 around thirty two cents in late November. Obviously, it's been 349 00:21:05.880 --> 00:21:08.279 followed by many other meme coins that have done great 350 00:21:08.359 --> 00:21:11.359 as well. I've seen some five x and ten x 351 00:21:11.960 --> 00:21:14.839 returns from meme coins we had never heard of before 352 00:21:15.440 --> 00:21:18.720 just during the month of November. So those was kind 353 00:21:18.720 --> 00:21:22.759 of just a representation of the meme coin euphoria and 354 00:21:22.759 --> 00:21:24.640 how crazy it had been. And you can see, just 355 00:21:24.720 --> 00:21:28.720 like with XRP, a big spike in circulation signaled the 356 00:21:28.759 --> 00:21:32.039 top here in November eleventh, and then it settles down, 357 00:21:32.119 --> 00:21:34.960 we get a rebound, and then daily active addresses goes 358 00:21:35.000 --> 00:21:38.359 off and then we kind of see the last top 359 00:21:39.160 --> 00:21:41.799 that we ended up seeing. So look for any more 360 00:21:42.000 --> 00:21:45.519 utility spikes here as a clear sign that the fomo 361 00:21:45.720 --> 00:21:48.160 is starting to become a bit too much. But as 362 00:21:48.160 --> 00:21:50.400 of now it looks pretty healthy again. So I think 363 00:21:50.880 --> 00:21:55.400 Doje and the rest of the meme coin options out 364 00:21:55.400 --> 00:21:58.079 there are waiting for Bitcoin to just pick up steam 365 00:21:58.079 --> 00:22:00.279 once again so it can get rolling again. It's else. 366 00:22:01.200 --> 00:22:04.920 It's so interesting how cyclical this is. And to your point, 367 00:22:05.039 --> 00:22:07.559 this all follows Bitcoin, right, And I often tell people 368 00:22:07.559 --> 00:22:10.279 about that, watch what bitcoin's doing and use it as 369 00:22:10.319 --> 00:22:12.480 a measuring stick to get an idea where we're at 370 00:22:12.480 --> 00:22:14.839 and where we're going. So, if Bitcoin's going to do 371 00:22:14.880 --> 00:22:18.039 its next leg up, a lot of that liquidity will 372 00:22:18.039 --> 00:22:21.519 eventually be rotated to all coins and then you got 373 00:22:21.519 --> 00:22:23.160 the stable coin supply, it's going to hit some of 374 00:22:23.160 --> 00:22:24.160 these all coins as well. 375 00:22:24.640 --> 00:22:28.079 Exactly. Yeah, Bitcoin, just like it was doing fifteen years ago. 376 00:22:28.200 --> 00:22:33.319 It always starts the lead and then other coins will follow. 377 00:22:33.519 --> 00:22:38.599 There are occasional short term exceptions, but if you're regardless 378 00:22:38.599 --> 00:22:41.720 of whether you like or hate Bitcoin, then maybe you're 379 00:22:41.759 --> 00:22:45.160 only into all coins. You should still be watching Bitcoin 380 00:22:45.359 --> 00:22:49.079 for its signal to allow the rest of the markets 381 00:22:49.119 --> 00:22:52.799 to flourish the way they've been doing throughout most of 382 00:22:52.799 --> 00:22:53.240 this year. 383 00:22:54.240 --> 00:22:57.559 Absolutely, I see you have here funding rates, and I 384 00:22:57.559 --> 00:23:00.960 don't do it liquidations yesterday exactly. 385 00:23:01.039 --> 00:23:06.920 Yeah, So funding rates are kind of a sentiment measurement, 386 00:23:07.160 --> 00:23:09.559 at least the way I like to perceive it. It's 387 00:23:09.640 --> 00:23:12.359 the way people are really putting their money where their 388 00:23:12.359 --> 00:23:15.160 mouths are. So they may talk bullish or bearish about 389 00:23:15.200 --> 00:23:17.799 dose or any other coin on any given day, but 390 00:23:17.880 --> 00:23:23.799 this is showing their true level of interest in going 391 00:23:23.880 --> 00:23:27.519 long or going short and how many margin or leverage 392 00:23:27.680 --> 00:23:32.400 positions are being opened on any given day. And especially 393 00:23:32.960 --> 00:23:37.920 over the past week or so prior to today, we were 394 00:23:37.920 --> 00:23:41.559 seeing quite a bit of greed toward dose coin in 395 00:23:41.599 --> 00:23:45.599 the ratio of longs compared to shorts. When there's more shorts, 396 00:23:46.000 --> 00:23:48.400 that's when you'll see these little red lines over here, 397 00:23:48.799 --> 00:23:52.880 and that's usually an indication that short liquidations could occur 398 00:23:53.079 --> 00:23:56.759 and cause prices to move up. The opposite happens when 399 00:23:56.799 --> 00:24:00.400 you see huge, huge long ratios compared to shorts, and 400 00:24:00.440 --> 00:24:06.240 then the price moves down thereafter. Essentially, funding rates are 401 00:24:06.279 --> 00:24:09.160