Speaker 1: I think that as long as the dry powder is
Speaker 1: going up here with top exchange addresses just holding more
Speaker 1: and more stable coins, it's indicative of the buying power
Speaker 1: clearly being ready to shoot us right back above one
Speaker 1: hundred K, and the limited cell power right now from
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is only going to strengthen that argument.
Speaker 2: Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host Tony Edward,
Speaker 2: and my guest today is Brian from Santiment and folks,
Speaker 2: you all know we're going to cover crypto metrics. We're
Speaker 2: going to do a deep dive on Bitcoin, XRP and
Speaker 2: all coins to give you the lay of the land
Speaker 2: and what's happening using data. Brian, great to see you, Good.
Speaker 1: To see you, Tony. We're back after I think three
Speaker 1: weeks off here together, but I'm excited to talk about
Speaker 1: lots of different price changes. The party has at least
Speaker 1: temporarily come to an end, and I think that's changed
Speaker 1: the outlook from.
Speaker 2: A lot of the retail traders out there absolutely, And
Speaker 2: we saw incredible price run ups were Bitcoin and many
Speaker 2: all coins, and now we're having that pullback, cool down phase.
Speaker 2: So we want to look at the data to see
Speaker 2: what's happening. You know, what was your first thought or
Speaker 2: impression of bitcoin cracking one hundred thousand dollars?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think because of my time spent
Speaker 1: at santiment, my first thought was, honestly, this is really cool,
Speaker 1: it's super historic. Now, how greedy is the crowd coin? Again?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: Because once they start to show euphoria and a lot
Speaker 1: of fomo, that's usually when the party comes to an end.
Speaker 1: So we saw a little bit of that, which I'll
Speaker 1: show in the graphs here in a moment, but it
Speaker 1: wasn't to an extreme degree, not like we saw in
Speaker 1: like twenty seventeen or twenty twenty one. So now that
Speaker 1: we've fallen back down, now my opposite question is is
Speaker 1: the crowd get getting too scared? And if so, we
Speaker 1: can be bouncing right back up because prices move the
Speaker 1: opposite direction of crowds expectations.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, So how about you show us the charts and
Speaker 2: we can start at looking at the sentiment around when
Speaker 2: bitcoin hit one hundred k and what it is now
Speaker 2: with this pullback.
Speaker 1: Let's do it all, right, So just looking at the
Speaker 1: past week here, So the obvious story that pops out
Speaker 1: is price is definitely corrected. Bitcoin's actually about right where
Speaker 1: it was a week ago, actually up about a half
Speaker 1: a percent, believe it or not. Because we have that
Speaker 1: early dip last week where we got to the low
Speaker 1: ninety four k's almost the exact same thing happened this week.
Speaker 1: We got to like ninety four point three, ninety four
Speaker 1: point four. Currently at the time of this recording, we've
Speaker 1: actually bounced a little bit back, just shy of ninety
Speaker 1: six k. But most assets, especially the ones that have
Speaker 1: been really partying hard, a lot of those og large
Speaker 1: caps like XRP, Cardono here, they're both down about twenty percent,
Speaker 1: Stellar another one. These were kind of the big three
Speaker 1: that a lot of people were noticing during those like
Speaker 1: five x six x breakouts that each of them had
Speaker 1: throughout November. So call it regression to the mean. But
Speaker 1: a lot of those same assets that we're doing really
Speaker 1: well are now kind of letting the math be the
Speaker 1: math and coming back down a little more than the
Speaker 1: rest of the ald coin pack at this time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense. Some of these had incredible run
Speaker 2: ups and really many parabolic run ups where you might
Speaker 2: see something like that near to top, but we're not
Speaker 2: near to top, you know. Based on different metrics, and
Speaker 2: this pullback I think is very healthy, very necessary for
Speaker 2: us to continue to go to higher prices. So I
Speaker 2: know there's a big leverage flush out and are you
Speaker 2: seeing some fear in the market, you know, with this
Speaker 2: significant pullback.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So we can talk about that a little bit.
Speaker 1: I pulled up this chart which I find pretty fascinating.
Speaker 1: It's measuring the amount of mentions of buy buying or
Speaker 1: bought with the combination of bitcoin or BTC in it.
Speaker 1: So naturally you would think when greed is starting to
Speaker 1: get really prevalent, these bars are going to go up.
Speaker 1: When it's starting to go down, the bars go down.
Speaker 1: And that's essentially what we've been seeing. We kind of peaked,
Speaker 1: if you you know, don't include the Trump pump that
Speaker 1: was going on in mid November where everyone was just
Speaker 1: very euphoric and got rewarded for that euphoria. We eventually
Speaker 1: hit this point here where on December fifth, people were
Speaker 1: enthusiastic about buying the dip. They got like a mini
Speaker 1: bounce right here that got them excited. And then you
Speaker 1: can see how the buy calls for bitcoin as well,
Speaker 1: by the way, as ethereum and mean coins, which are
Speaker 1: here in red and yellow, respectively. They're all kind of
Speaker 1: shrinking down now after really getting high during this dip
Speaker 1: in late November, one more hurrah in late December, and
Speaker 1: it looks like we're kind of at the most fearful
Speaker 1: point that we've been at for about a month now.
Speaker 1: It's funny, you know, it's smart investors. They look for
Speaker 1: fear and blood on the streets to buy. That's the
Speaker 1: time they're not tweeting about it, but they're actually doing it.
Speaker 1: But the real retail crowd will tweet out about buying
Speaker 1: when the things when the price is pumping, which is
Speaker 1: the wrong time exactly. It's funny how quiet the crowd
Speaker 1: is in terms of buying when the price is at
Speaker 1: fifty or sixty K, like it was what three months ago,
Speaker 1: and then how vocal they are when it's at one
Speaker 1: hundred K. You always scratch your head and you go,
Speaker 1: why didn't you say that before? You could have doubled
Speaker 1: your money. So it's fascinating the psychology of crypto and
Speaker 1: even advanced traders, and you know people who look at
Speaker 1: charts all day like you and I. I won't speak
Speaker 1: for you, but for me, like even I have that
Speaker 1: natural inclination to go like, oh, prices have been going
Speaker 1: up now, therefore they're more likely to continue going up
Speaker 1: as opposed to expecting prices to go up when we're
Speaker 1: on that huge downswing, especially when it's been going on
Speaker 1: for so long, like back in twenty twenty two, right
Speaker 1: before the FTX collapse and all that stuff came out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it took me years to unlearn that herd mentality,
Speaker 2: you know, watching financial news and to look at the
Speaker 2: charts and to do the opposite of the herd. And
Speaker 2: was it challenging, of course, But I've been rewarded for
Speaker 2: doing that, buying the blood, buying the fear. So come
Speaker 2: December twenty twenty two, I was buying bitcoin at sixteen
Speaker 2: seventeen K early January twenty twenty three. So I say
Speaker 2: that not to boast, but to help others understand this
Speaker 2: is how this is investing. It's not running with the herd.
Speaker 2: They're usually coming in with that dumb money crowd, which.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that turn up, but it is what it is.
Speaker 1: And congrats, by the way, that's incredible that you were
Speaker 1: one of the few that was bind during that time.
Speaker 1: But I was going to say the blood in the
Speaker 1: streets saying you know that Warren Buffett kind of made
Speaker 1: famous in the traditional equities markets. There's a reason for that,
Speaker 1: especially in crypto. There's a reason why people who buy
Speaker 1: when there's blood in the streets tend to get rewarded.
Speaker 1: For one, there's the simple math explanation where what goes
Speaker 1: down usually goes up. What goes up usually goes down,
Speaker 1: and crypto is obviously here to stay. Anyone who doesn't
Speaker 1: believe that, who's watching this video, you know, watch a
Speaker 1: few videos and read a few books, and I guarantee
Speaker 1: you you'll find something that eventually changes your mind on that.
Speaker 1: But when you do see a lot of blood in
Speaker 1: the streets, right, the vocal majority, they're not the whales.
Speaker 1: Those are the retail traders who are selling off, running
Speaker 1: around like chickens with their heads cut off, explaining that
Speaker 1: bitcoin's dead and you should believe them and follow their
Speaker 1: lead and all this. Well, who's buying those coins, right,
Speaker 1: They're not just disappearing when they're selling them. They're going
Speaker 1: into the large wallets, which might be exchange wallets. Yes,
Speaker 1: but it's also a lot of whales that just have
Speaker 1: these huge limit buys that are being fired off because
Speaker 1: of all the small retail wallets that are selling off
Speaker 1: their fractions of coins hundreds or thousands or tens of
Speaker 1: thousands at a time, and making the whale wallets richer.
Speaker 1: And then the whales, when necessary, use their heavy hands
Speaker 1: and heavy bags to push prices up further and punish
Speaker 1: all of the people who are capitulating. And that's kind
Speaker 1: of the psychology behind it and the real explanation as
Speaker 1: to why prices typically move the opposite direct of the
Speaker 1: crowd's beliefs at any time.
Speaker 2: Absolutely so, speaking of whales, can we take a look
Speaker 2: at what whales are doing as far as accumulation and
Speaker 2: even supply and exchanges and so forth.
Speaker 1: Totally so. One of my favorite charts that I think
Speaker 1: we almost always go over on this call is just
Speaker 1: the overall collective holdings of any wallets that are ten
Speaker 1: BTC or greater. It's obviously a very widespread way of
Speaker 1: looking at the supply distribution a bitcoin, but it gives
Speaker 1: you a good understanding between all the exchange addresses and
Speaker 1: all the real sharks and whales out there that are
Speaker 1: accumulating or dumping at any time, getting an idea of
Speaker 1: what they're doing. And how much it correlates with prices.
Speaker 1: It's pretty fascinating and it's always been the case, and
Speaker 1: you can see especially right around November fourth, this was
Speaker 1: literally the twenty four hour period that Trump had been
Speaker 1: elected right here, and you can see how they really
Speaker 1: just started accumulating aggressively right as that news broke. Now
Speaker 1: it is slowing down a little bit. In fact, when
Speaker 1: I refreshed this like ten hours ago, I was actually
Speaker 1: seeing the first downtick in about two months since like
Speaker 1: October fourteenth. That would be the last time we saw
Speaker 1: an actual like drop like way back here tenth or so.
Speaker 1: So now we're up here, it's up again, meaning that
Speaker 1: as of today, this current twenty four hour cycle, there's
Speaker 1: actually started to be a little more accumulation once again.
Speaker 1: Perhaps prices going below ninety five k was enough to
Speaker 1: get whales and sharks interested again, but regardless, we're not
Speaker 1: quite seeing the same level of accumulation. It's just flattening
Speaker 1: out a tiny bit. So if you're worried that we're
Speaker 1: about to see a huge collapse, one thing that kind
Speaker 1: of validates that that probably won't happen is when the
Speaker 1: whale whiles continue to go up collectively.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense because we saw a lot of
Speaker 2: long term holders were selling bigcoin at near one hundred thousand,
Speaker 2: and then of course you've crossed one hundred thousand, you
Speaker 2: touch one hundred and three, there's going to be some
Speaker 2: folks who are selling, whether it's traders or whoever it else.
Speaker 2: And I think there were showing some wallets that have
Speaker 2: been around for eight to ten years, right, people have
Speaker 2: been holding, they haven't moved it, and there was some
Speaker 2: distribution there, so it makes sense. But to your point,
Speaker 2: with this pullback, many of these whales could start buying
Speaker 2: the dips so to speak, and holding for maybe the
Speaker 2: final leg of this bullmarket.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you touched on literally the next point I wanted
Speaker 1: to make, and that is exactly how the dormant, older
Speaker 1: stagnant coins are looking right now. And this is an
Speaker 1: extremely good boat of confidence because this line here that
Speaker 1: will make a little more prominent here an orange. It
Speaker 1: indicates the average a in which coins have been sitting
Speaker 1: in their wallets. It's called mean dollar invested age. Sentiment's
Speaker 1: been using it for about four or five years now,
Speaker 1: and basically the theory that's been back tested and proven
Speaker 1: time and time again is that when this line moves
Speaker 1: down and coins get younger, it's indicative of older large
Speaker 1: shark and whale wall. It's moving their stagnant coins back
Speaker 1: into circulation, thus creating more network activity and allowing a
Speaker 1: bull market to essentially bull to allow it to come
Speaker 1: to fruition and continue. And we've seen over history, if
Speaker 1: I go back to like twenty sixteen, we'll go back
Speaker 1: eight years here in every bull cycle. I know these
Speaker 1: green bars representing the price or small way back here,
Speaker 1: but you can see how the mean dollar invested age
Speaker 1: way back in twenty sixteen started to move down and
Speaker 1: continued all all the way until the bull market was
Speaker 1: just ending here in mid December twenty seventeen, and then
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you see it start to rise.
Speaker 1: This rise indicates that these stagnant coins are becoming more
Speaker 1: and more stagnant again, and then we see the price
Speaker 1: doing this and going down over time until we see
Speaker 1: another poolmarket mini one right here in May twenty nineteen,
Speaker 1: and then another one in late twenty twenty as COVID
Speaker 1: was really starting to invoke a ton of fear in
Speaker 1: the markets, and then we kind of went on this
Speaker 1: long stagnant cycle here until October November of twenty twenty three,
Speaker 1: and ever since then. You can see how the price
Speaker 1: has exploded. If I hold down shift and I just
Speaker 1: go to the right, you can see on the left
Speaker 1: top left side of my screen the ten plus BTC
Speaker 1: wallets since mid October of last year have accumulated three
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five thousand bitcoin and the mean dollar
Speaker 1: invested age has dropped just about one hundred and ninety
Speaker 1: eight days on average, meaning during this bull market stretch.
Speaker 1: If you want to call this fourteen month cycle a
Speaker 1: stretch of bullish momentum, which I think you should, the
Speaker 1: decrease or the age in which coins have been sitting
Speaker 1: in their wallets has decreased decreased by almost one third,
Speaker 1: which is just a ton and helps validate that we
Speaker 1: are still in a bull cycle long term.
Speaker 2: This is such an interesting metric. I need to get
Speaker 2: this chart from you to bookmarket definitely telling you just
Speaker 2: see it from the macro and what's happening now in
Speaker 2: regards to supply and exchanges. Are you continuing to see
Speaker 2: that decline as well?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's looked pretty good. It's little zoom in a
Speaker 1: little bit here just to the last three months, But overall,
Speaker 1: it's it's business as usual. Bitcoin just continuing over time
Speaker 1: to move off of known exchange wallets and into cold storage,
Speaker 1: which is more a good thing than a bad thing.
Speaker 1: The bad argument is that if they're sitting around for
Speaker 1: a long time, they can't circulate and it tends to
Speaker 1: create stagnation, whereas if they're on exchanges it implies that
Speaker 1: there's going to be a little more network movement. But overall,
Speaker 1: the reason it's good is because when there are less
Speaker 1: coins on exchanges, there is a decreased chance of future
Speaker 1: mass selloffs, especially by whales, who make up a very
Speaker 1: large chunk of this supply in exchanges, as you would imagine,
Speaker 1: So it's continuing to move down. If we go back
Speaker 1: to around, let's just go exactly three months ago, the
Speaker 1: supplant exchanges has dropped by about one point four percent,
Speaker 1: which is great. And on top of that, the tether
Speaker 1: and USD coin supplies on exchanges the top two stable
Speaker 1: coins in crypto by market cap. They're continuing to rise.
Speaker 1: Usdc's kind of being a little choppy right now, but
Speaker 1: you can see tether and red here since just November fourth,
Speaker 1: the night before Trump was elected. It was, it was
Speaker 1: sitting at twenty five point three five billion on supply
Speaker 1: of coins on exchanges, and now it's at about forty
Speaker 1: point seventy nine billion. And this, by the way, is
Speaker 1: supply held by top exchange addresses. So for stable coins,
Speaker 1: we're specifically looking at just the ten largest wallets and
Speaker 1: how much they're holding, so you can see just what
Speaker 1: a massive increase it's been for the tether and supply
Speaker 1: and USD coin top exchange wallets, you know.
Speaker 2: So I'm assuming as soon as we start to see
Speaker 2: an updick V shaped recovery, if you want to call
Speaker 2: that brain, it's gonna we gotta start sounding the alarms
Speaker 2: a bit, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think. I think that as long as the
Speaker 1: dry powder is going up here with top exchange addresses
Speaker 1: just holding more and more stable coins, it's indicative of,
Speaker 1: you know, the buying power clearly being ready to shoot
Speaker 1: us right back above one hundred K, and the limited
Speaker 1: cell power right now from Bitcoin is only going to
Speaker 1: strengthen that argument. So yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 2: Wow, this is why I love the data. Man. No feelings,
Speaker 2: no emotions, What is happening? What are the whales doing?
Speaker 2: It's it really tells the clear story of what where
Speaker 2: we're at and what we can anticipate. Now, let's talk
Speaker 2: about XRP because we've been seeing incredible price movement. I
Speaker 2: don't know what's going on this cycle, but there's a
Speaker 2: ton of retail interests. You look at Google trends, I'm
Speaker 2: seeing XRP being mentioned on random YouTube channels that have
Speaker 2: they're not cryptospecifics, so there's a lot of retail hype here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny what a crazy thirty day run will do.
Speaker 1: Even after this little retrace here we've seen it's still
Speaker 1: up about three hundred and twenty nine percent in the
Speaker 1: past month from its top roughly about eight days ago.
Speaker 1: The price is down about fifteen and a half percent.
Speaker 1: But just between November twenty fifth to December tewod to
Speaker 1: call it about a week, give or take a day
Speaker 1: or two, it went up more than double just in
Speaker 1: this one little stretch here, And you can see how
Speaker 1: the top really was precisely called by the amount of
Speaker 1: transaction volume here, and we can even see how it's matched.
Speaker 1: We make sure these are one day candles here, it's
Speaker 1: matched by the high spike and daily active addresses and circulation.
Speaker 1: This wasn't necessarily like this massive warning sign. I think
Speaker 1: we all can agree that XRP, just like any other
Speaker 1: ald coin, is still going to be at the whim
Speaker 1: of Bitcoin being able to stay stable itself. And this
Speaker 1: is of course when Bitcoin started dropping also. But xrp's
Speaker 1: utility was showing just tons and tons of fomo signs.
Speaker 1: So there's a difference between like a gradual level of
Speaker 1: growth like we saw back here, and then just a sharp,
Speaker 1: like reactionary spike from all the fomoers who are suddenly
Speaker 1: moving XRP as a result of just the price instead
Speaker 1: of the fundamental opportunities that XRP provides that other all
Speaker 1: coins don't.
Speaker 2: Interesting and one other coin that was really going nuts
Speaker 2: was dogecoin as well. I think it was early November
Speaker 2: if I'm not mistaken or I remember the timeline, but
Speaker 2: dogecoin was really rallying hard the same thing. You had
Speaker 2: a lot of retail being drawn in because of its
Speaker 2: price movement.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there were a few reasons. Meme coin
Speaker 1: mania was going nuts as Bitcoin's price was beginning to climb,
Speaker 1: and every time there was a big step up or
Speaker 1: a new milestone made from Bitcoin a lot of that
Speaker 1: profit redistribution went straight into meme coins, and of course
Speaker 1: Doje being the king of the memes in terms of
Speaker 1: market capital least, it benefited greatly, especially after Trump was elected.
Speaker 1: As you remember, mister Elon Musk is a big doge
Speaker 1: coin fan, at least he memes about it a lot
Speaker 1: and talks about it a lot. So with him having
Speaker 1: his presidential candidate win the election, I think a lot
Speaker 1: of people had increased confidence, not just in crypto, but
Speaker 1: specifically in anything that Musk has been promoting over the
Speaker 1: last couple of years, and dose cooin was one of
Speaker 1: the biggest beneficiaries of the election result, going from was
Speaker 1: it about yeah, fifteen cents here in early November to
Speaker 1: around thirty two cents in late November. Obviously, it's been
Speaker 1: followed by many other meme coins that have done great
Speaker 1: as well. I've seen some five x and ten x
Speaker 1: returns from meme coins we had never heard of before
Speaker 1: just during the month of November. So those was kind
Speaker 1: of just a representation of the meme coin euphoria and
Speaker 1: how crazy it had been. And you can see, just
Speaker 1: like with XRP, a big spike in circulation signaled the
Speaker 1: top here in November eleventh, and then it settles down,
Speaker 1: we get a rebound, and then daily active addresses goes
Speaker 1: off and then we kind of see the last top
Speaker 1: that we ended up seeing. So look for any more
Speaker 1: utility spikes here as a clear sign that the fomo
Speaker 1: is starting to become a bit too much. But as
Speaker 1: of now it looks pretty healthy again. So I think
Speaker 1: Doje and the rest of the meme coin options out
Speaker 1: there are waiting for Bitcoin to just pick up steam
Speaker 1: once again so it can get rolling again. It's else.
Speaker 2: It's so interesting how cyclical this is. And to your point,
Speaker 2: this all follows Bitcoin, right, And I often tell people
Speaker 2: about that, watch what bitcoin's doing and use it as
Speaker 2: a measuring stick to get an idea where we're at
Speaker 2: and where we're going. So, if Bitcoin's going to do
Speaker 2: its next leg up, a lot of that liquidity will
Speaker 2: eventually be rotated to all coins and then you got
Speaker 2: the stable coin supply, it's going to hit some of
Speaker 2: these all coins as well.
Speaker 1: Exactly. Yeah, Bitcoin, just like it was doing fifteen years ago.
Speaker 1: It always starts the lead and then other coins will follow.
Speaker 1: There are occasional short term exceptions, but if you're regardless
Speaker 1: of whether you like or hate Bitcoin, then maybe you're
Speaker 1: only into all coins. You should still be watching Bitcoin
Speaker 1: for its signal to allow the rest of the markets
Speaker 1: to flourish the way they've been doing throughout most of
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I see you have here funding rates, and I
Speaker 2: don't do it liquidations yesterday exactly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So funding rates are kind of a sentiment measurement,
Speaker 1: at least the way I like to perceive it. It's
Speaker 1: the way people are really putting their money where their
Speaker 1: mouths are. So they may talk bullish or bearish about
Speaker 1: dose or any other coin on any given day, but
Speaker 1: this is showing their true level of interest in going
Speaker 1: long or going short and how many margin or leverage
Speaker 1: positions are being opened on any given day. And especially
Speaker 1: over the past week or so prior to today, we were
Speaker 1: seeing quite a bit of greed toward dose coin in
Speaker 1: the ratio of longs compared to shorts. When there's more shorts,
Speaker 1: that's when you'll see these little red lines over here,
Speaker 1: and that's usually an indication that short liquidations could occur
Speaker 1: and cause prices to move up. The opposite happens when
Speaker 1: you see huge, huge long ratios compared to shorts, and
Speaker 1: then the price moves down thereafter. Essentially, funding rates are
Speaker 1: always trying to get back down to even if it's
Speaker 1: too high. That means that lungs are literally paying shorts
Speaker 1: a premium so that they can benefit from prices moving
Speaker 1: up and up and up more. But that premium causes
Speaker 1: the ability for the price to move up in a
Speaker 1: more difficult manner. So essentially this is one of the
Speaker 1: primary reasons that you can benefit from going against the crowd.
Speaker 1: If there's blood in the streets and they're literally trying
Speaker 1: to bet against dose coin, optimal time to buy. If
Speaker 1: they're betting in huge droves in favor of dose coin,
Speaker 1: it's at the very least a more advantageous time to
Speaker 1: take some profit than usual. I'll leave it at that.
Speaker 2: Are you seeing the same type of pattern for bitcoin
Speaker 2: and XRP.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's take a look at both really quick. They
Speaker 1: they are fairly similar, give or take. You know, any
Speaker 1: eight hour period might be slightly different. Xrps actually seeing
Speaker 1: more current lungs than than those so people are still
Speaker 1: quite confident, especially on bitmes, which is quite interesting here,
Speaker 1: just huge, huge lungs, more than we've seen throughout most
Speaker 1: of the year, going back to March is the last
Speaker 1: time we saw this high level of lungs compared to shorts,
Speaker 1: and Finance is not quite as extreme, but yeah, they're
Speaker 1: both pretty long right now. And then switching to bitcoin,
Speaker 1: bitcoin's a little more on the neutral side because I
Speaker 1: think personally there's a little more rationality for bitcoin because
Speaker 1: it's not going up five hundred percent in any given month.
Speaker 1: It's more just a steady, you know, ten twenty thirty
Speaker 1: percent in a given month. Therefore, the lungs don't get
Speaker 1: quite as extreme. But yeah, on bidmes right at the top,
Speaker 1: you can see it was really starting to get high.
Speaker 1: Let me make sure it's refreshed here. Yeah, bid mechs
Speaker 1: really high on this second, fourth and fifth really and
Speaker 1: then Finance right around the same time, and then it
Speaker 1: actually went up a little bit more and then just
Speaker 1: fell off and now we're kind of back at neutral.
Speaker 1: But yeah, XRP seems to be the one that's still
Speaker 1: getting quite a bit of undeniable. You know, Fomo, I
Speaker 1: don't care that the prices are going down. I'm still
Speaker 1: going to along. I'm just going to buy the dip
Speaker 1: more and more, and that can get people in trouble sometimes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I noticed some folks are looking at short XRP.
Speaker 2: I see a lot of people looking at to do that,
Speaker 2: and which I guess.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just going to say, according to the data,
Speaker 1: there isn't enough evidence that that's making up the major
Speaker 1: majority of people. So maybe it's a small minority people
Speaker 1: saying that, but the data shows people are still overwhelmingly
Speaker 1: long toward XRP. Oh.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's what I meant. Like, because they notice
Speaker 2: that they heard is so bullish and long, they're like,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna short this thing after.
Speaker 1: That, parable right, Yeah. Well it's interesting because they sometimes
Speaker 1: they're going to say it, but they're maybe they're just
Speaker 1: trying to manipulate the crowd a little bit when they
Speaker 1: say things that they intend to do but don't actually
Speaker 1: do it. That's one of the really fun things about
Speaker 1: checking out, you know, what they're saying versus what's actually
Speaker 1: happening on exchanges.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, Brian, let's a little let's wrap it up
Speaker 2: around the total all coin market cap, you know, if
Speaker 2: you can give us a view of that and what's
Speaker 2: happening there from maybe a sentiment standpoint.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So if we look at just the overall numbers
Speaker 1: right now, the market cap among the thirty six hundred
Speaker 1: assets or so that we have is down about one
Speaker 1: and a half percent in the past, but volume is
Speaker 1: actually up. So this volatility that we're seeing is certainly
Speaker 1: causing more activity than we saw even during the crazy
Speaker 1: all time highs of last week, going from late November
Speaker 1: to early December, and I find that fascinating. So there
Speaker 1: is definitely some interest in dip buying. And the other
Speaker 1: thing I can show is the well, actually, this chart
Speaker 1: two is just a quick representation of the amount of
Speaker 1: positive versus negative comments here in green versus red that
Speaker 1: I'm going back and forth on with my mouse across
Speaker 1: social media, and then this gold line indicates the ratio
Speaker 1: of those two metrics positive versus negative multiplied by the
Speaker 1: amount of discussions. So in short, when it's really high,
Speaker 1: that's an indication of fomo. You can see, just while
Speaker 1: I'm highlighting this, there's a big spike right at the
Speaker 1: top here, big spike kind of at the top here. Yes,
Speaker 1: it trickled up a little bit more, and then this
Speaker 1: was a top as well, So you don't want to
Speaker 1: see arbitrarily anything above this line that would be an
Speaker 1: indication that we're seeing too much fomo. At the same time,
Speaker 1: you do want to see a lot of sentiment below
Speaker 1: this line. Right now, we're smack dab in the middle
Speaker 1: and nobody quite knows what to think, and it's just
Speaker 1: causing bulls and bears to kind of have friction, and
Speaker 1: the panic sellers are getting scooped up by the dip buyers,
Speaker 1: and it's kind of just havoc at the moment. But
Speaker 1: I think eventually the crowd is going to start leaning
Speaker 1: one way or another. If we see anything below ninety four,
Speaker 1: which seems to be the support level right now, that's
Speaker 1: when you can start to expect lines like these, which
Speaker 1: would be a very good indication that it's time to
Speaker 1: truly dip by and go against the crowd.
Speaker 2: Interesting, it's interesting that we're stuck in that limbo or
Speaker 2: right in the middle. And well, I know a lot
Speaker 2: of people are thinking, hey, we may rally into Christmas
Speaker 2: into the new year, or you know, maybe it dips
Speaker 2: down and then the rally continues in January. We'll have
Speaker 2: to wait and see.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'll say for what it's worth, you know,
Speaker 1: in twenty seventeen and twenty twenty one, we actually had
Speaker 1: some rough decembers. I'm not going to say that that's
Speaker 1: exactly what will be the case this time, but taxes
Speaker 1: are a thing in most areas of the world, and
Speaker 1: when we have such crazy good performance years, there has
Speaker 1: been a bit of a letdown for the last month,
Speaker 1: sometimes two months of the year. I know this November
Speaker 1: was huge, but don't be shocked if there's a little
Speaker 1: bit of trepidation and whales and sharks kind of go
Speaker 1: on cruise control a little bit for the next few weeks,
Speaker 1: where bitcoin might in crypto might actually become a little
Speaker 1: bit boring for once, and suddenly in January February that's
Speaker 1: where we might start to see fireworks in either direction
Speaker 1: once again. But holidays kind of tend to pull back
Speaker 1: the amount of volume as we get toward the second
Speaker 1: half of December, and profit taking for tax purposes can
Speaker 1: be a thing. So i'd be in the very short term,
Speaker 1: I'd be aware of that phenomenon and how prior huge
Speaker 1: years like we saw in seventeen and twenty one had
Speaker 1: that result and it could happen again.
Speaker 2: Great great advice, great insights, Brian. Thank you so much,
Speaker 2: and we'll have to do this. I think I know
Speaker 2: the holidays that coming up, but we got a touch
Speaker 2: base before Christmas to see what this market is doing.
Speaker 2: Maybe it goes up, maybe it goes down. We'll have
Speaker 2: to wait and see.
Speaker 1: I'd love to man. Yeah, I'm looking forward to catching
Speaker 1: up in one to two weeks and we look back
Speaker 1: at just how you know the very end of this
Speaker 1: year is going to shape the markets. I think it's
Speaker 1: gonna be kind of chaotic and just strong opinions in
Speaker 1: both directions. But you know, it's always fun looking at
Speaker 1: the data with you, and I appreciate the time as
Speaker 1: always