Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. We are live. It is Friday.
Speaker 2: It is time for Total Bases Opening Day Part two.
I guess I suppose at least for six teams, still
six teams in Major League Baseball that will play their
very first game today. The other I think ten that
are in action played yesterday or the day before. We're
here today and then every day for the foreseeable future.
So I've got Brian Leonard to my left, Tokyo Brandon
to my right. We're gonna be talking probably most of
the games today. There's only eight on the slate. We'll
start with the Yankees Giants. We'll talk some Dodgers Diamondbacks.
But first before we get into it and get into
this Yankees Giants game, we're always going to recap the
day before. Now, We're mostly gonna do that at the
end of the show on a day to day basis.
It's gonna fit better when we get to like sort of,
you know, recap the parlay and talk about best. But
it's important to bring it up today because I think
it it it sort of is a good segue into
our opening game Giants Yankees.
Speaker 1: Listen.
Speaker 2: I went on to yesterday first game, first day of
the year. I had Pirates, I had White Sox. Neither
were close. Am I at all concerned about that? Not really.
I made four hundred and seventy four baseball bets last year.
Thats a and that's low volume. That As a lower
volume guy, that's kind of like my sweet spot. I
want to make about five hundred bets a year over
the course of I mean, we're going to do this
up until god.
Speaker 1: The end of October.
Speaker 2: It's just not that big of a deal to have
to have one day where that happens. I would say
the same for you know, the Cubs are probably sitting
there saying, you know what, that's not that big of
a deal. Yeah, we got destroyed by the Nationals. You know,
maybe the White Sox are sitting there saying, ah, another
twelve run loss. That might be a bit deal for
a team like that. But the point is I saw
so much overreaction, not only on in the comments on Twitter,
and now I'm seeing it just the in the odds
for today's games.
Speaker 1: And so let's go.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go to Tokyo Brandon first, and then we'll
bring in Brian. But tb he got this game right
on on Wednesday Opening Night Yankees Giants. Tokyo Brand was
on the Yankees. He got the win, and they won
the game seven to nothing. We have a very similar
matchup today in terms of, like you look at one
pitcher the other pitcher, the two teams are still the
same two teams, Tokyo Brand, and suddenly the Yankees are
minus one thirty. They went off like minus one oh
five minus one ten the other day. So as someone
that bet the Yankees, you were right about it, I
gotta imagine it'd be much harder to come back and
take the Yankees at this price here. That's a very
drastic jump for one game, is the point I'm trying
to make. So kick us off Yankees Giants and just
talk to me a little bit about that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of like Cam Slittler. Actually, not only
do I like well, I'm.
Speaker 2: Not saying I'm not saying that like that's fine, but yeah,
do you like the Yankees as much as minus one
thirty when you just got them at minus one oh
five and a similar matchups?
Speaker 1: I guess what I'm asking, Well.
Speaker 3: The pitchers are different, but you're right, it is kind
of a similar matchup. The Yankees have a much better
bullpen in my opinion. But you know, you guys know
how I like to do it. I like to do
a lot of current form, and there's no current form
right now because they've only played one game, So my
cap is pretty hazy at the moment. But you're right,
I did get the first day. I nailed the first day.
Robbie Ray has control problems sometimes, You're right, though. The
price is a little steep considering they're on the road
and the Giants are not the Nationals, So yeah, it
is a bit of an inflated price. There's a Yankee tax,
but considering the Yankee tax, the price is actually not
that steep. Actually, I'm not gonna play it though.
Speaker 2: All right, Brian, let's bring I'm gonna go to you then,
because here's here's where I'm at with this game. Very
similar power rating type matchup from the first night. Suddenly
Yankees go from minus one ten to minus one thirty
twenty cent jump based on one game. Giants are better
against right handed pitching, so you know, that's you know,
that's something here where and now and now I've got
to just you know, the coming back into baseball season
is it is like you know, you got to start
making sure that you've got the correct handedness on pictures.
I had to go and check and make sure Cam
Schlitzer was a righty. In my head he was, and
then I'm like, wait a minute, but yes, he's a
right handed pitcher. That was the point I wanted to
make here in my notes was Giants last year really
struggled against lefties. It was something I noted on Wednesday.
Sure enough they go out and get shut out by
Max Freed. So, Brian, they come here with a right
handed pitcher on the mound. Entire lineup profiles better against
right handed pitchers or right handed pitching. You got Devers,
you got Jung Ho Lee, they bring in Luisa Rise.
Giants got to be tempting you a little bit, now,
I know the way you bet you got to be
looking at the Giants here.
Speaker 4: Actually, I'm in a little bit more agreement with the TV.
Speaker 1: I think I love this show.
Speaker 4: The reason why youse take a little bit of money.
Max fred is a boring veteran. Very good picture. Obviously
we saw that yesterday. Kam Schlitzler and Will Warren, who's
going tomorrow's game, and as well as Ryan Weathers goes
after that. They've all looked really good in the preseason.
They've been talked up Schlittler. Everybody thinks Schlitzler's going to
be the ace of this team. So there's not a
drop off in that regard. The Yankees are facing a
lefty here, which means Paul Goldschmidt will be in the lineup.
Gold Schmidt last year. Say what you want about it
being an older guy. He kills lefties and that's a
big deal. And if you take a look at what's
going on with the San Francisco starting pitchers, Logan Webb
has been an All Star. He's been a star in
the tournament the recent tournament. People know him, people trust him.
Robbie Ray. I was on Robbie Ray a lot last year.
He had a great season a year ago. There are
some concerns about regression for Robby Ray this year, which
is one of the reasons why I think the Yankees
were taking money here. And you were talking about overreactions.
Aaron Judge went over yesterday. I believe he struck out
three times? Was it after four? Four times? After not
doing anything in the final game of the tournament. Everybody's
saying he's not a big game player. He's not. He
hit like five hundred or something in the tournament. Come on, guys,
everybody's taking small sample size. As we had a guy
in our in our forum yesterday talking about he goes, oh,
guys went aye, you're terrible. You're terrible. I go, dude,
it's just one day, come on now. And I didn't
do well either. I went on three, I lost to
one percent plays and I split my three percents. I
won the hockey and lost the baseball. And the baseball
was a good handicap. I had the under in the
Tampa Bay game, and so the first five easily easily
under and it was just happened to be the next
inning or whatever, next couple of innings where it went over.
But it we could have all if we just switched
it to team total, you know, because it the end, yougo,
Do I play team total? Do I play over? Do
I play under? Do I play side? It's all a
little bit different, and if you could, if you lose
them all, like the White Sox yesterday, the White Sox
was a bad pick. I'll we I both of us
kind of liked the trigger high. It was a bad pick.
But if you go look at the numbers, the games
that we had talked about, the teams we had talked
about the day before, all those teams with the Angels win,
the Cardinals win. It's just a lot of those bad
teams were able to get that victory. Cleveland Beach, Seattle.
And I hope you joined in on my video I
put out later on the day. I had Cleveland in
that one. So uh yeah, you're gonna find that early on.
It's gonna happen. That's just the way sports betting is.
Speaker 2: So I got to point this out because, like so again,
I'm glad.
Speaker 1: We don't we don't rehearse anything with this show.
Speaker 2: And I had a Rob Vino was out with you,
Brian in Vegas last week. I saw you guys, you know,
got to go to the show and stuff like that.
And so I had a post fill in and I
told my co host Matt on the College Basketball Show.
He published this whole like really nice write up for
one of the regions. I said, listen, I'm not going
to read that prior to the show.
Speaker 1: I don't want to like like subconsciously have my opinion,
you know, agree with you. I don't want to know
what you think prior to the show. That's the thing.
The three of us never talk before the show.
Speaker 2: And so it makes for a better It makes a
better show for you guys, because you want that sort
of you really want that disagreement if it's there. So
for me, like I'm very anti Yankees here, I don't
see any merit to backing the Yankees at this price.
Speaker 1: That is a.
Speaker 2: Major overreaction in the number to the first day. It
has nothing to do with like, oh my handicap is this? Listen,
Cam Schlitzler throw who cares throw him out? I want
to I want to read off some eras for starting
pitchers after yesterday. Freddie we're out to seven point two zero,
Paul Skien's sixty seven. Okay, Shane's Smith Smith from the
White Sox sixteen point two, Matthew Boyd fourteen point seventy three.
Speaker 1: All Right.
Speaker 2: The point here is starting pitching at this point in
the season matters as little as it's going to all year.
So if you're like taxing this up based and that's
your only reason for it would be the starter you
got to like probably go back to the drawing board
with how you're looking at these games for now, like Tokyo,
Brandon says, when you get into the year and you've
got some like in season data, then you might want
to wait the starting pitching more. For me, I'm gonna
be very like adamant about that. It's how the teams
are power rated, and you let the chips fall where
they land when it comes to the pitch and go ahead.
Speaker 1: Brian, would you have.
Speaker 4: To say My question for you is you were comparing
it to yesterday's line. If yesterday's game wasn't played and
this is the first game of the season, I still
think it's an overlay for the Yankees.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I do. I have.
Speaker 2: I personally had I had these two teams in.
Speaker 1: San Francisco closer to even.
Speaker 2: So yes, I thought the first number that the price
on opening night was correct, and so yeah, now I
would have this about twenty cents off of where I
think it should be.
Speaker 3: I had TV Everyone's saying how they had a horrible day.
Speaker 1: My day was great.
Speaker 3: I've won my five percent play. Yamamoto strikeouts over five
and a half and I you know, people in the
comments are saying baseball is tough to bet and early
actually I think the numbers are really soft at the beginning.
You're never gonna see a Yamamoto strikeouts five and a
half for the rest of the season. But you saw
it yesterday and I jumped on it with five percent
and cashed it, So all right, I like the soft
numbers at the beginning of the season.
Speaker 2: I like it well, Tokyo Brandon, I'm gonna I'm gonna
come to you. We're gonna talk about that point and
I'm gonna segue into the next game. But like, I
don't disagree with you with numbers being soft, but I'm
gonna make a comparison to like something I experienced at
the beginning of college basketball season, where with the way
college basketball works now there's so many transfers, Like I
can beat numbers all day, Like I can identify soft
numbers all day. It's not the numbers being soft, it's
it's the sort of like crazy variance at the beginning
of the season. And so like that's what I think
makes it more challenging. It's not like, yeah, it worked
out for you with Yamamoto, but then like talk to
someone that had something schemes related yesterday and it's like
that's more what I'm talking I guess what I refer
to is there's so much early season variants that I
think skewing a handicap based on a starting pitcher at
the beginning of the year is I feel like if
you do that more often than not, you're you're probably
going to end up not coming out ahead. Obviously on
a one off that's great, But I'm gonna go back
to you for this game because this was one where
I feel like the market was pretty skewed yesterday toward
the Dodgers in favor of the Dodgers. It's still skewed
that way today. No, you won yesterday with Yamamodo. Anyone
that bet the Dodgers yesterday would have cashed their ticket.
We go again today, Ryan Nelson, Emmett Shean, Are you
still trying to go Dodgers related here or would you
go the other way in this one?
Speaker 3: I'm going neither way. And actually my Partlayleg is going
to be in this game. I don't know if we
want to do it this early, but I'll just break
the game down in general, or should I just throw
it out there?
Speaker 1: Throw it out there, we'll recap at the end, but
go ahead yeah.
Speaker 3: I'm I really like, you know, I look at the
numbers at the beginning with kind of an idea in
my head of what they're going to be, and sometimes
a number just jumps out at me and I have
to take a double take. And this is one of
those eight and a half for the game total. I thought,
that's crazy. I think this is going to go way over.
I like the over in this one. I put out
a free video on wager Talks YouTube channel today. It's
probably not published yet, but it will be, and I
broke this down. But yeah, Ryan Nelson not the greatest
picture in the world, but he does have five recent
starts against the Dodgers where he did well, So that's
why this number I think is posted this low. But
the Dodgers are just a juggernaut. I think they can
get the over by themselves. Perhaps, but we got Shean
Shan has looked good, but he's not exactly the most
reliable picture in the world. I don't know why the
Dodgers are starting him on day two. They have a
lot of pictures to go to besides him. I'm I'm
not knocking him, but I think I think the Diamondbacks
can get to him, and I think the Diamondbacks have
one of the worst bullpens I've ever seen once. Ryan
Nelson's not a guy who goes six an innings generally speaking.
So I think the Dodgers are going to be able
to tee off on this bullpen for a good four
or five innings. And I'm all in on the over here.
That's gonna be my parlay. Leg is over eight and
a half, Brian.
Speaker 2: I want to get you in here on this one
because I'm not disagreeing with your total. By the way,
I don't have much of an opinion on the total,
but again, like I'm I mean, there is like a
substant you are paying a massive tax in my opinion,
to do anything like Dodgers related. The other thing, someone
corrected us yesterday and said, the ring ceremony is today.
But here's the thing, it doesn't. The whole weekend is
the ceremony. Yesterday, they raised the banner. Today, it'll do
the rings. It'll be like a wedding where everyone goes
to breakfast before the Sunday game. These things used to
be like, hey quick, here's your rings. I think it
was like the Braves five years ago. That was like No,
we're doing the whole weekend and now it's like a
four day thing, so you still have all the distractions.
The Dodgers are still sitting there well over a two
dollars favorite Brian Leonard or do you have any desire
to punch back with the Dbacks here?
Speaker 4: Well as for the ceremonies, it'd be different if it
was the Angels, but it's the Dodgers. How many Dodgers
the one like twelve out the last thirteen divisions. They've
had a lot of success. I don't think it's a
big deal for them. It's probably more of a pain
and they asked for Arizona and probably an inspiration for
them to get back to where they were just a
couple of years ago. But I'm a big San fan.
I'm a Shapan and I follow him a lot on
social media and everything, and he is a very good picture.
He may be the ace of this picture by the
end of the season. But going into the seat, going
into the beginning of the year, they were talking about
piggybacking him because the last time he went out he
had he had decreased velocity. So there were so cons
After all the talk about Emma Chan and the future
of this guy. They were not going to start him.
Now they are going to start it, which means I'm
assuming they had they had a throwing session or whatever
between his last start and his velocity was back up.
But you do get that during this year. We see
it in the preseason. They in the spring training, a
lot of guys get the tired arm and it happens
a lot guys. Guys want to get out and they
want to start throwing early, want to be ready for
the season. And I think that's part of the reason
why I think there's value here on Ry Nelson. Nelson
had a really good year last year. He doesn't have
great a great repertoire pitches, but what he throws, he
has success and he's finally gotten confidence. And for so
long we have faded Ry Nelson that a lot of
people just blindly to Dodgers against Arizona, and I think
there's value on Arizona. I agree with the bullpen, but
if you take a look at the bullpen, it's not
a good bullpen. But none of their key guys pitched yesterday,
so they've got the full bullpen, and the Dodgers used
they're not eighth in a guy and he know it
threw up your pitcher, so he'll be available. But if
there's anything to play in this game, I may find
a way to play Arizona. I just think it's the
line's a little bit pumped up. And I love the Dodgers,
but you know they were losing at one point yesterday
and you know, until they got to a pitcher, I'm
not even that happy with I would rather hate Ryan.
Nelson's an upgrade from a starting pitcher standpoint to Gallon
right now, So I prefer Arizona.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you ninety nine percentile fast while we
talked about it.
Speaker 1: Nelson has a great heater. Arizona. You can get plus
one and a half minus one ten right now. That's,
in my opinion, a pretty solid way to attack that
game with them being on the road.
Speaker 2: But again, it doesn't that doesn't change my like TV's
opinion on the over has absolutely nothing to do with that.
For me, I think both teams can absolutely contribute to
the offense there.
Speaker 1: So yeah, but I do lean toward Arizona on the side. TV.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna come to you, so next ten minutes or so,
we'll go a little bit quicker.
Speaker 1: We'll go through the chat.
Speaker 2: I spent more time on two of the games because
we only have eight games today, so we'll go a
little bit more rapid fire on these. I'm gonna come
to TV first.
Speaker 1: He says. I agree. TV went five and two in
two days.
Speaker 2: Question, So I'm assuming this is a question for Tokyo
Brandon King. That would be Michael King. Horrible spring, absolutely
awful spring for him, fifteen and a half outs and
even our chat person here, Adrenaline Junkie Dave. That's a
great name, by the way, Adrenaline Junkie Dave says, tough
spring for King? Does he get over that number? So
Tokyo Brandon, talk to me about Michael King. But also
if you have anything in that game that's gonna be
Padres Tigers out well today.
Speaker 3: Let me see. I gotta find my my outs projections.
I have them. So people in the chat are asking me,
what do you think of the strikeouts for this? What
do you think of the outs for this? My strikeouts
projections for the pictures, I've already put it on my
Twitter x at Tokyo under Barb Brandon. The outs I'll
put up later. So it's very hard to like look
things up on the spot.
Speaker 2: When I'm gimm anytime someone asks for strikeouts or outs,
if you posted it to Twitter, that's a great spot
to just be like, go to my Twitter.
Speaker 1: I love that.
Speaker 3: Yes, So that's what I'm saying now. So here's the
strikeouts and the outs. So Michael King. Actually, my projection
for Michael King is seventeen outs. I don't know if
he's going to get there though, because that's what seventeen
outs is, two outs in the sixth inning. Man. You
know Mike King last year, didn't he start as kind
of a reliever and you know, a start like he'd
come in for like four innings. And I don't think
of him as a guy who goes long, deep into games.
But my projection is seventeen I don't know if I
agree with my own projection, though.
Speaker 2: I want to bring Ran in on the same game
because I want him to just talk about like horrific
spring and how he sort of evaluates a player now
coming into the regular season.
Speaker 4: I believe I read an article that Michael King's velocity
was back up last game. I could be wrong, but
there's so many players baseball. I tend to lose track.
I do say that I like Michael King. He's a
very good pitcher. I don't think the Detroit offense is
as good as it was yesterday. My projection on this
game is San Diego should be favored and probably about
you know, probably about the one thirty range and right
now we're looking at them and probably about the one
twenty one, twenty five range. So to me, slight value
on King. Valdez is another one of those pitchers, and
I said it yesterday and talking about the Mets pitcher
that I usually like to fade guys their first start
with a new team. Valdez was the big golf season
signing for the Tigers. Tigers blew out San Diego yesterday,
or I'm looking at this game. I had the teams
rated similarly. I think Detroit overall is a slightly better team.
They don't get a lot of credit because they play
in the Central of the America League. But I think
overall San Diego is going to be able a little
bit down this year as compared to last year. But
this game, the line on this game is about what
I would make it, so I don't have a lot
on it. It is going to be a low scoring game.
I would expect more out of King than what we've
seen in the preseason. And if even if he runs
into trouble, hey we've got you know, it's on the
second game of the season. San Diego's got plenty of ball.
They got one of the best, if not the best
bullpens in Major League Baseball. So if he can only
if he only goes four innings, then I'm not worried
about San Diego. Is they've got the better bullpen going
the rest of the way out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe maybe you do trust TV's projection of that
seventeen you know, plus outs, and maybe you are getting
a little bit of a discount on anything King related
because of the bad spring TB coming to you for
this game. We're going to raise an energy drink to
you right now because maybe we're two days in. Maybe
the best point anyone's made yet on the show would
be guys that just played in the World Baseball Classic,
like kind of not being ready to play in their
opening day game. Aaron Judge four strikeouts and the opener
Paul Skens, doesn't get out of the first inning. He
can thank O'Neil Cruz for that, although I doubt he
would have had a sharp outing even if only careers
could play center field. The reason I'm bringing this up
is I want to come to you because we have
a chat question about the A's.
Speaker 1: Chat.
Speaker 2: In the chat, they want to know just general, how
are the A's going to be? We actually talked about
that on the show on Wednesday. So for the general
take on the A's, head back to Wednesday's preview show.
But the reason I'm coming to you for this game, Tokyo, Brandon,
is is you kind of circle Luis Severino as maybe
a fade when he pops up in his first, you know,
in his season debut. And here he goes up to
up north of the border to a very very good
Blue Jays team. So talk to me as J's. Is
that how you're looking at this?
Speaker 3: Yeah, and let's see, let me get this time stamp
in here real quick. We're at twenty four, okay, So, uh, Severino,
this is a good spot, not for Severino, but it's
a good betting spot for us. So yesterday you guys
mentioned how per Alta got hammered, but I had his
strikeout prop and he got seven k's even though he
gave up just about as many earned runs. So Severino,
you know when you get an underdog like this. And
regarding the World Baseball Classic, yes, he pitched in a
very high leverage situation for his country in the knockout
round for the World Baseball Classic, So yes, I do
expect a little bit of regression. Also, the Blue Jays
excellent home team. And let's not forget they won their division.
They're a good team. They went to the World Series.
They're a very good team. A couple of changes in
the offseason for them, but they're still a good team. Severino,
I never really liked him that much, and I think
he might get hammered, but I think he'll have kind
of a peralta kind of outing today. But his strikeout
prop I'm projecting him at five strikeouts and the book
has him at three and a half, So I think
that might be a spot. If you really want to
back Severino in one way or another, I wouldn't do
it on the SIE because I think he's going to
have a Parleta type outing.
Speaker 2: Coming to Brian on the same game, uh, Severino has
been a lot better on the road. He seems to
enjoy pitching on the road and not in Sacramento. Is
does that play in at all?
Speaker 1: Do you hear?
Speaker 4: Uh? You had mentioned players who play BOYD was another
one boy BOYD similar to the to the last guy
that Tokyo was talking about. He had a seven to
one streckout to walk Ratio still got hit and he
played in the in the tournament. Also, I'm a little
torn on sever Reno. Uh and the comment about he
doesn't do well at home. You're going to find a
lot of pitchers that don't do well out in Sacramento.
It's I've been out there. It's yeah, it's it's a
good hitters ballpark. We all know that now. Uh So
you would expect all their pitchers to actually do a
little bit better on the road. I do have the
same concerns about sever Reino. I had seen a lot
of a lot of those pitchers that I thought were
washed up because if you looked at you know, the
Venezuela pitching staff and in the DC pitching staff, some
of the ODR pitching staff, they had a lot of
older veterans and they all pitched well. It just it
was their game. Rodriguez for Arizona, they were great and
I'm taking, oh, what a mismatch schemes again. But if
you have that emotion behind you now, it is the
opening game of the season for these two teams, so
maybe he'll have that again here. I'm looking to Faye
Gousman a little bit this year. I just don't think
this is a good division for him to be in
a lot of good hitting teams here. He's getting up
there in Age and the Oakland A's or Sacramento as
Vegas Age, whichever you will prefer. They're a good hitting team.
They're able to hit on the road. I kind of
like the Athletics in this game. You're getting them at
plus you know, anywhere from plus one forty five to
one fifty seven. I'm lucky to fade Toronto a little bit.
They've had major injuries from starting pitchers. They've got some
key relievers that have been hurt. Toronto everybody, you know,
everybody remembers what he did in the playoffs. Look at
their record season record, and then look at the rend
score and run against that kind of thing, and then
coming into the stations a little bit overrated in my mind.
So I'm mking a piece of the Athletics here. Some way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and listen, Brian, you know there's a couple of
people in the chat that were, you know, kind of
alluding to, well, Ken Gossman be trusted. Well, the A's
are going to hit. Hitting is not going to be
their problem. So the A's can absolutely get to Gossman.
It's it's can they keep Toronto from scoring enough runs
to you know, to win that game. They will hit
the ball TV you're nodding, Do you do you want
to like kind of hammer that point home?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Mark Lambert in the comments, he asked me, he said,
do you trust Gusman today? And I just wrote back
in the comments, I said, he's going to be shaky,
but that lineup will back him up, so he could
It could be one of those where he gives up
five and runs and still gets the win. Kind of
kind of starts. Probably this game is probably going to
be one of those, you know, ten to seven kind
of games. It looks to me, but you know, you
never know, but it's opening day, so but me, that's
what it looks like. It looks like Gausman's gonna give
up maybe four or five earned runs but still get
the win.
Speaker 4: Kind of thing to me, internal line on the athletics
just three and a half.
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness. Yeah, well Gousman is a good pitcher,
but I think his name is better than his skill
at this point in his career.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I a lot of good points made right there.
Speaker 2: I couldn't really push back on any of those, just
to answer and then we'll move on. But the original
question of like, where are you at on the A's,
I do not think the A's are a good baseball
team from a win loss perspective.
Speaker 1: I think they will.
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna win as many games as
people think they're gonna win. But it's not because of
their offense. It's because they lack pitching. No starting pitching
on that team, in my opinion. And I don't think
they're bulltens as good as people think it's going to be.
They're gonna need they're gonna need to catch lightning in
a bottle a couple of places. They're gonna need some
young guys to really show out, and I just don't
know if you can, Like, I'm just not trusting that.
So they're gonna be a team that I think is
gonna be fun to watch. We're gonna score a ton
of runs, but they may give up as many as
anyone in the American League. Queen Rock says, let's win
the parlay for my birthday today. Yeah, first of all,
happy birthday. Second of all, we absolutely.
Speaker 1: Want to do that.
Speaker 2: Tokyo Brandon has already revealed what is parlay leg is
gonna be. So I'm just gonna give you the floor
here TV Dealer's Choice. Talk about one of the games
that we have not talked about yet, and then you
can tell us you can just recap your parlay leg
at the end of that.
Speaker 3: Okay, sounds good. Let's talk about the game that everyone's
gonna have their eyes on the Rockies in Marlins. So
this is an interesting game because the Marlins are generally
known as being a poor team, but I think they're
on the up. They've got a starter here who used
kind of similar to Gausman. He used to be an
absolute stud and he's fading a little bit, but he's
still a good pitcher, kind of like Gausman going against Freeland,
who I actually think Freeland has some skills. It's just
unfortunate that he plays for Colorado and he actually has
pretty good road numbers in his career, So this will
be an interesting game. I'm not gonna, you know, come
out and say, oh, definitely this way or definitely that way.
The price seems a little steep from Miami, but they
do have the better bullpen, and they, in my opinion,
have the better lineup and the better starting pitcher. But
minus one eighty little steep. But to me, to a
normal casual fan, this game looks maybe kind of crappy,
But to me, this is going to be a really
interesting game. I want to see how Freelin does and
I want to see how the Marlins have improved. I
said on a previous show, I have the Marlins team
total for the season over seventy three. I expect a
breakout for them. But you know, every time I criticize
the Brewers, they go sky high, and every time I
back a team, they take a dump. So we'll see
what happens. But this is the game I have my
eye on. I don't really know which way it's going
to go, though.
Speaker 1: I think it's listen.
Speaker 2: I can't put anyone off of thinking both of these
teams are probably like I'm higher than the market on
both Marlin's Rockies. Peter Bendix is just going to continue
to do his thing down there with that farm system,
and they're both I see tons of upside relative to
where the market is on both the Marlins and the
Rockies this year. It will be interesting to just see,
like kind of how that series plays out this weekend.
Speaker 1: Brian's kind of nodding over there.
Speaker 2: You may get a scenario where like one of these
teams sweeps or something and then is massively overrated going
into the next week, or very undervalued.
Speaker 1: But Tokyo, Brandon.
Speaker 2: Before I go to Brian for his best bet, recap
your parlay leg, and you had the five percent winner yesterday,
So tell the folks what you're looking at today, what
you've got up for sale.
Speaker 3: So, as I said earlier recapping my parlay leg, I'm
going to take the Dodgers Diamondbacks over eight and a half.
And as I said earlier in the show, on my Twitter,
I usually put up the outs props and my projections
for outs and strikeouts. So take a look there if
you're gonna because during the show when I'm talking, I'm
fifty five. I can't multitask anymore. I used to, but
I can't now. So take a look at my Twitter.
It's all there. I'm sorry to be rude to you
guys in not answer. So I have another five percent
play out today. As I said earlier, I love the
beginning of the season. I just think the numbers are
soft and I think it's a chance to take advantage.
So I do have another five percent play out, and
I won yesterday's. Yes. People in the comments are saying, oh,
you got lucky. Look, good luck and bad luck happen
at exactly the same rate. So don't you know you
remember the bad ones more than you remember the good ones, but.
Speaker 1: They have you never apologize for a winever.
Speaker 3: Ever, it's not apologizing. I'm saying shut out because good
luck and bad luck happened exactly the same rate the
bad beats. You get just as many good beats as
bad beats. And I'll take a good beat on my
five percent any day. It's the second best beat I've
ever had in my career, so I'll take it. And
I have another one today, which I'm actually more confident of.
So let's go.
Speaker 2: All right, Brian Leonard, I'm coming to you for your
parlay le, your best bet, and also what you've got
going on today at wager talk.
Speaker 4: I actually just want one final comment about the lucky.
The better handicapper you are, the more bad beats you're
going to have, because you're going to win more games.
At least you should win more games. And Brandon's already
pointed out over the years is a very good baseball handicapper.
So I just leave it at that. I'm gonna go
back to the same game. I'm gonna look at Colorado Miami.
I got to get a little bit of a grin
when he said the game everybody is excited for. I
actually am excited for this game. And the reason being
is Colorado traditionally has been a good home team terrible
on the road. What makes them that way the air
in Colorado. Your breaking balls don't break and it throws
them off. So when Colorado, this is the first game
of the season Colorado, when they play in Colorado and
play a series or whatever, then they go on the road,
then you want to fade them because they have no
confidence in their breaking balls, and the breaking balls actually
are normal when they pitch anywhere else. So this is
the first game of the season, so that's not a worry.
Freeland's going for Colorado he's a lefty. Miami doesn't have
a lot of power anyway. Their biggest power bat is
Hurt and if you take a look at Miami's guys,
their power guys are all left handed hitters. So the
number nine guy for call Or for Miami, Connor Norby,
maybe their best home run hitter in this game. You
don't want that because they're going to have co nine
and Cassie are going to be out and we're likely
to see Austin Slater, who hasn't it a home run
probably ten years, and so they're not going to have
the power. So you're taking away the home runs. It's
not a good home run park in the first place,
but you're taking away the home runs here. And I
like the Colorado side. I like the offense for Colorado
the book. The pitching is still going to be Colorado pitching.
They're going to give up some runs. I don't like
anything that they've done in that regard. But Friedland's a veteran.
He's taken the opening day pitch to opening day many times. Oktara,
the guy had Timmy John surgery a couple years ago.
It was really terrible in the first half, as you
would expect coming back from TJ, and then as the
season went on, he pitched pretty well. So a lot
of people are buying into him right now, which is
why where the line is, there's no way that Miami
should be what a one anywhere from a one eighty
to a two dollars favorite. I don't care who they're playing.
Colorado can have all their batteries batting the opposite hand
and I still wouldn't late two to one on Miami.
So give me Colorado and maybe the first time all year,
maybe the last time all year, I'll be on Colorado
on the road. But there's value in the Rockies in this.
Speaker 1: Game, Brian, What is your are you going Rockies? Money line?
Speaker 4: Right there?
Speaker 1: Is that the play?
Speaker 4: Let me see, you could get like the one sixty
five range. If you're looking at spread, you can get
one and a half minus one thirty Let's do that.
Let's go one and a half plus one and a
half minus one thirty five because the totals only seven
and a half, so they're not expecting many runs, so
that extra run means a lot, so for the people
in the parlay where they don't have to sweat out
colroad bullpen to hold the league. Let's stick to plus
one and a half here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do the best arms.
Speaker 1: Listen, I'll say this.
Speaker 2: Probably you're gonna hear me say this a whole bunch,
probably over the next month, the next two months. The
Rockies on a day to day basis, are probably going
to be a play this year, and they're probably gonna
be They're gonna be value, but they're gonna be a play,
so going I just want to make a quick point
on the Rockies. Last year, they showed value a lot
of times, but that was a historically bad team. This
team is, in my opinion, much better than last year's team.
So I think you're gonna see this team follow a
similar trajectory of last year's White Sox, where they're they're
gonna have a good chance to win more than sixty games.
So last year's White Sox finished sixty to one oh two.
But the reason that I like that Brian's going to
the plus one and a half here is I think
some of those losses are gonna turn into wins. But
from last year, if you remember, the Rockies were getting
blown out like on a they were losing, and they
were losing big. I think some of their losses are
going to turn into close losses. And if you go
back to last year's White Sox, we said it yesterday,
fifteen and thirty six in one run games. So the
White Sox were actually pretty profitable against the one and
a half last year. Because though that fifteen and thirty
six and one run games, what is that quick twenty
one losses that you would have cashed if you had
the plus one and a half. I think you're gonna
see something similar for the right Rockies this year. Not
only are they going to probably drastically improve on their
win total, but they're probably gonna lose a lot of
one run games because that's what teams sort of figuring
out how to win.
Speaker 1: Do usually they usually have to lose. That's another reason
I like the White Sox this year because I think
they were in so many games last year that maybe
they'll figure out how to win some of them, or
maybe they'll just get lucky.
Speaker 2: Maybe they just had bad luck last year losing that
many close games. So I love where your head's at
right there on the Rockies. All I have to promo
today is the double play. So that is our package.
On the page, you can get any of us too.
Speaker 1: Listen.
Speaker 2: If you want a baseball play today by Tokyo Brandon's play.
He's got a five percenter. He's coming off a five
percent win. I don't even know what it is. If
I were to promo something here, I would say, go
get his. I have a client play locked in, thank you,
but I would go get his. I'm gonna I doubt
I'm even gonna put it up for individual sale.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 2: If you want a college too play, check out your boy.
I hit with Texas last night, Nevada the night before.
I've got a five percent college basketball play. So that's
what you're looking at for me. TV's got the five
percent baseball play. Brian Leonard, jump in here. What else
do you've got here?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I forgot to promote myself. I'm sorry about that. Yeah,
I've got a five percent going in college basketball today
in the Sweet sixteen two and oh so far in
the big Dance on the five percent plays. Love this play.
Put it up really early, and I'll be working on
more baseball. I've got hockey show coming up after that,
So my players are going to be a little bit
delayed today, but not totally in love with the baseball cards,
so you may not be missing a whole lot in baseball,
but I do like the Rockets.
Speaker 3: Can I mention something? Sorry to cut in here asking
me if my five percent is a picture prop. It
is not a picture prop, it's a side bet, but.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I believe you should put that in there. Yeah,
every day they would know, he probably did.
Speaker 3: I did, And I just want to give a quick
detail on our double play package. You can pick two
of us on this show and you get three days
all access to two of us for I think it's
forty nine dollars. Price of a five percent play is
thirty five, so it's fourteen dollars less for a five
percent play, So you probably get two five percent plays
in that in three days with two of us. So
pick two of us. It's a great deal, I think.
Speaker 2: Now from a from that standpoint, without a doubt, tremendous deal.
If you're a I can't see why you would just
buy the five percenter when you can get when just
three days for two people is not that much more.
So that's a really good point TV. I'm I'm gonna
go to a different game for my best bet and
I'll close it out. Mariners money line will be my
parlay lake. I think the Mariners are the best team
in the American League this year. I think it's going
to be very difficult to find value with them. Maybe
on the road is where you'll actually find value with them.
At home, they just get priced up to oblivion. But
last night, you know, they lose their opener. I'm not
saying that like we're getting like some sort of bargain here,
but for the parlay, like minus one sixty five is
not is not that that? That's actually kind of where
I make the number right, There is in that minus
sixty one one sixty five minus one range. But I'm
willing to put it in the three teamer because of
course we're gonna get plus money anyway. And second, I
just love the matchup for the Mariners to bounce back. Listen,
the Guardians they win six to four last night, they
have to use some bullpen arms. That bullpen took a
big step back in my opinion, Like, I don't think
the Guardians are just gonna be able to ride their
bullpen to win after win. This isn't two years ago,
it's not even last year really, And I just really
questioned where all their offense is coming from now again.
Nice went on Opening Day for them. But you're giving me,
George Kirby, You're giving me the Mariners at home. You're
giving me the best team in the American League in
my opinion, to not start owing two. I like the Mariners.
So that is going to be my parlay leg Mariner's
money line, and that wow where I am shocked that
we are nailing the timing of this new show.
Speaker 1: I was certain. I was certain I would go over
and have a slack message from Kelly at some point
early in this season.
Speaker 2: We're right on the dot both shows. We're going to
finish right at the forty five minute mark. That's perfect
the three team parlay today. I am on Mariners on
the money line, Brian Leonard is on Rockies plus one
and a half minus one thirty five, and then we've
got Tokyo Brandon Dodgers Diamondbacks over eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Minus one ten.
Speaker 2: The parlay will be based on those odds yesterday's parlay loss,
so that's just a minus one unit right there.
Speaker 1: Obviously, shop around. I will recap that.
Speaker 2: Tomorrow win or lose, and we'll always come on here
and talk about the day before. We'll usually do it
at the end of the show. Brian and I looking
for a nice bounce back. Tokyo Brandon coming off a
big time five percent win, hopefully he's got another one
in there today, and check out the double play package.
And also one quick programming note before we leave. I
will be starting Under the Radar today. I filmed it
yesterday and kind of saved it incorrectly, so the reason
you did not see that yesterday is because I kind
of messed it up so well. The first Under the
Radar will be today, and that'll be a daily segment.
Check out Brian Leonard and Tokyo Brandon. They're both doing
solo videos, so if we missed a game on here,
there's a good chance it's there. We will be back
Monday morning, nine am. Have a great weekend everyone, and
we'll see you guys next week.