1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. We are live. It is Friday. 2 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:11,839 Speaker 2: It is time for Total Bases Opening Day Part two. 3 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,000 I guess I suppose at least for six teams, still 4 00:00:15,039 --> 00:00:17,920 six teams in Major League Baseball that will play their 5 00:00:18,039 --> 00:00:22,039 very first game today. The other I think ten that 6 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:26,480 are in action played yesterday or the day before. We're 7 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:29,239 here today and then every day for the foreseeable future. 8 00:00:29,559 --> 00:00:32,320 So I've got Brian Leonard to my left, Tokyo Brandon 9 00:00:32,359 --> 00:00:35,560 to my right. We're gonna be talking probably most of 10 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:37,640 the games today. There's only eight on the slate. We'll 11 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:41,000 start with the Yankees Giants. We'll talk some Dodgers Diamondbacks. 12 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,439 But first before we get into it and get into 13 00:00:44,439 --> 00:00:48,600 this Yankees Giants game, we're always going to recap the 14 00:00:48,679 --> 00:00:51,920 day before. Now, We're mostly gonna do that at the 15 00:00:52,079 --> 00:00:54,960 end of the show on a day to day basis. 16 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,880 It's gonna fit better when we get to like sort of, 17 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,719 you know, recap the parlay and talk about best. But 18 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,000 it's important to bring it up today because I think 19 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:08,120 it it it sort of is a good segue into 20 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,719 our opening game Giants Yankees. 21 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:11,719 Speaker 1: Listen. 22 00:01:11,719 --> 00:01:14,359 Speaker 2: I went on to yesterday first game, first day of 23 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,040 the year. I had Pirates, I had White Sox. Neither 24 00:01:17,079 --> 00:01:21,319 were close. Am I at all concerned about that? Not really. 25 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,959 I made four hundred and seventy four baseball bets last year. 26 00:01:25,239 --> 00:01:27,959 Thats a and that's low volume. That As a lower 27 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,400 volume guy, that's kind of like my sweet spot. I 28 00:01:30,439 --> 00:01:32,799 want to make about five hundred bets a year over 29 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:34,200 the course of I mean, we're going to do this 30 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:35,840 up until god. 31 00:01:35,799 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: The end of October. 32 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,359 Speaker 2: It's just not that big of a deal to have 33 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,560 to have one day where that happens. I would say 34 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:47,719 the same for you know, the Cubs are probably sitting 35 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,439 there saying, you know what, that's not that big of 36 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:54,599 a deal. Yeah, we got destroyed by the Nationals. You know, 37 00:01:54,719 --> 00:01:57,799 maybe the White Sox are sitting there saying, ah, another 38 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,439 twelve run loss. That might be a bit deal for 39 00:02:00,519 --> 00:02:03,519 a team like that. But the point is I saw 40 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:08,039 so much overreaction, not only on in the comments on Twitter, 41 00:02:08,439 --> 00:02:11,800 and now I'm seeing it just the in the odds 42 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:13,919 for today's games. 43 00:02:14,439 --> 00:02:15,159 Speaker 1: And so let's go. 44 00:02:15,199 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go to Tokyo Brandon first, and then we'll 45 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,520 bring in Brian. But tb he got this game right 46 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:26,560 on on Wednesday Opening Night Yankees Giants. Tokyo Brand was 47 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,560 on the Yankees. He got the win, and they won 48 00:02:29,599 --> 00:02:33,400 the game seven to nothing. We have a very similar 49 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,639 matchup today in terms of, like you look at one 50 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:38,840 pitcher the other pitcher, the two teams are still the 51 00:02:38,879 --> 00:02:42,560 same two teams, Tokyo Brand, and suddenly the Yankees are 52 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:46,520 minus one thirty. They went off like minus one oh 53 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,599 five minus one ten the other day. So as someone 54 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,400 that bet the Yankees, you were right about it, I 55 00:02:53,439 --> 00:02:56,199 gotta imagine it'd be much harder to come back and 56 00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:00,560 take the Yankees at this price here. That's a very 57 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,479 drastic jump for one game, is the point I'm trying 58 00:03:04,479 --> 00:03:07,560 to make. So kick us off Yankees Giants and just 59 00:03:07,599 --> 00:03:09,360 talk to me a little bit about that. 60 00:03:12,759 --> 00:03:16,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of like Cam Slittler. Actually, not only 61 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:17,520 do I like well, I'm. 62 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:21,039 Speaker 2: Not saying I'm not saying that like that's fine, but yeah, 63 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:23,840 do you like the Yankees as much as minus one 64 00:03:23,879 --> 00:03:26,240 thirty when you just got them at minus one oh 65 00:03:26,319 --> 00:03:27,599 five and a similar matchups? 66 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,439 Speaker 1: I guess what I'm asking, Well. 67 00:03:30,319 --> 00:03:33,039 Speaker 3: The pitchers are different, but you're right, it is kind 68 00:03:33,039 --> 00:03:35,199 of a similar matchup. The Yankees have a much better 69 00:03:35,199 --> 00:03:39,400 bullpen in my opinion. But you know, you guys know 70 00:03:39,439 --> 00:03:41,039 how I like to do it. I like to do 71 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:45,240 a lot of current form, and there's no current form 72 00:03:45,319 --> 00:03:48,960 right now because they've only played one game, So my 73 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,879 cap is pretty hazy at the moment. But you're right, 74 00:03:52,919 --> 00:03:56,240 I did get the first day. I nailed the first day. 75 00:03:57,439 --> 00:04:03,360 Robbie Ray has control problems sometimes, You're right, though. The 76 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:05,960 price is a little steep considering they're on the road 77 00:04:06,319 --> 00:04:10,400 and the Giants are not the Nationals, So yeah, it 78 00:04:10,479 --> 00:04:12,840 is a bit of an inflated price. There's a Yankee tax, 79 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:16,319 but considering the Yankee tax, the price is actually not 80 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,360 that steep. Actually, I'm not gonna play it though. 81 00:04:20,319 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 2: All right, Brian, let's bring I'm gonna go to you then, 82 00:04:23,079 --> 00:04:26,920 because here's here's where I'm at with this game. Very 83 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:31,480 similar power rating type matchup from the first night. Suddenly 84 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:36,480 Yankees go from minus one ten to minus one thirty 85 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:41,639 twenty cent jump based on one game. Giants are better 86 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:46,399 against right handed pitching, so you know, that's you know, 87 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:50,120 that's something here where and now and now I've got 88 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,639 to just you know, the coming back into baseball season 89 00:04:54,319 --> 00:04:57,759 is it is like you know, you got to start 90 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:01,240 making sure that you've got the correct handedness on pictures. 91 00:05:01,319 --> 00:05:03,800 I had to go and check and make sure Cam 92 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:06,360 Schlitzer was a righty. In my head he was, and 93 00:05:06,399 --> 00:05:08,439 then I'm like, wait a minute, but yes, he's a 94 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,800 right handed pitcher. That was the point I wanted to 95 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:14,319 make here in my notes was Giants last year really 96 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,519 struggled against lefties. It was something I noted on Wednesday. 97 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:19,759 Sure enough they go out and get shut out by 98 00:05:19,759 --> 00:05:23,199 Max Freed. So, Brian, they come here with a right 99 00:05:23,199 --> 00:05:26,879 handed pitcher on the mound. Entire lineup profiles better against 100 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,600 right handed pitchers or right handed pitching. You got Devers, 101 00:05:29,759 --> 00:05:32,160 you got Jung Ho Lee, they bring in Luisa Rise. 102 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:35,639 Giants got to be tempting you a little bit, now, 103 00:05:35,639 --> 00:05:37,120 I know the way you bet you got to be 104 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:38,079 looking at the Giants here. 105 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:42,519 Speaker 4: Actually, I'm in a little bit more agreement with the TV. 106 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 1: I think I love this show. 107 00:05:46,439 --> 00:05:51,079 Speaker 4: The reason why youse take a little bit of money. 108 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,600 Max fred is a boring veteran. Very good picture. Obviously 109 00:05:55,639 --> 00:05:59,399 we saw that yesterday. Kam Schlitzler and Will Warren, who's 110 00:05:59,439 --> 00:06:02,439 going tomorrow's game, and as well as Ryan Weathers goes 111 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:06,800 after that. They've all looked really good in the preseason. 112 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,000 They've been talked up Schlittler. Everybody thinks Schlitzler's going to 113 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,639 be the ace of this team. So there's not a 114 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,600 drop off in that regard. The Yankees are facing a 115 00:06:16,639 --> 00:06:19,439 lefty here, which means Paul Goldschmidt will be in the lineup. 116 00:06:19,519 --> 00:06:21,959 Gold Schmidt last year. Say what you want about it 117 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,720 being an older guy. He kills lefties and that's a 118 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,160 big deal. And if you take a look at what's 119 00:06:28,199 --> 00:06:32,360 going on with the San Francisco starting pitchers, Logan Webb 120 00:06:32,519 --> 00:06:35,160 has been an All Star. He's been a star in 121 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:40,759 the tournament the recent tournament. People know him, people trust him. 122 00:06:40,959 --> 00:06:44,319 Robbie Ray. I was on Robbie Ray a lot last year. 123 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,279 He had a great season a year ago. There are 124 00:06:47,399 --> 00:06:51,000 some concerns about regression for Robby Ray this year, which 125 00:06:51,079 --> 00:06:53,959 is one of the reasons why I think the Yankees 126 00:06:53,959 --> 00:06:58,120 were taking money here. And you were talking about overreactions. 127 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,560 Aaron Judge went over yesterday. I believe he struck out 128 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:10,399 three times? Was it after four? Four times? After not 129 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,759 doing anything in the final game of the tournament. Everybody's 130 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,600 saying he's not a big game player. He's not. He 131 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:20,560 hit like five hundred or something in the tournament. Come on, guys, 132 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:22,879 everybody's taking small sample size. As we had a guy 133 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:27,240 in our in our forum yesterday talking about he goes, oh, 134 00:07:27,399 --> 00:07:31,279 guys went aye, you're terrible. You're terrible. I go, dude, 135 00:07:31,319 --> 00:07:33,879 it's just one day, come on now. And I didn't 136 00:07:33,959 --> 00:07:37,199 do well either. I went on three, I lost to 137 00:07:37,199 --> 00:07:40,600 one percent plays and I split my three percents. I 138 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:43,639 won the hockey and lost the baseball. And the baseball 139 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:45,240 was a good handicap. I had the under in the 140 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:49,680 Tampa Bay game, and so the first five easily easily 141 00:07:49,759 --> 00:07:51,560 under and it was just happened to be the next 142 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,000 inning or whatever, next couple of innings where it went over. 143 00:07:54,079 --> 00:07:57,120 But it we could have all if we just switched 144 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,480 it to team total, you know, because it the end, yougo, 145 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,240 Do I play team total? Do I play over? Do 146 00:08:02,319 --> 00:08:05,439 I play under? Do I play side? It's all a 147 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:08,439 little bit different, and if you could, if you lose 148 00:08:08,439 --> 00:08:10,480 them all, like the White Sox yesterday, the White Sox 149 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,879 was a bad pick. I'll we I both of us 150 00:08:13,959 --> 00:08:16,800 kind of liked the trigger high. It was a bad pick. 151 00:08:17,079 --> 00:08:19,519 But if you go look at the numbers, the games 152 00:08:19,519 --> 00:08:21,399 that we had talked about, the teams we had talked 153 00:08:21,439 --> 00:08:24,879 about the day before, all those teams with the Angels win, 154 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:31,079 the Cardinals win. It's just a lot of those bad 155 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:33,879 teams were able to get that victory. Cleveland Beach, Seattle. 156 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,080 And I hope you joined in on my video I 157 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:37,960 put out later on the day. I had Cleveland in 158 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,159 that one. So uh yeah, you're gonna find that early on. 159 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,320 It's gonna happen. That's just the way sports betting is. 160 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:48,879 Speaker 2: So I got to point this out because, like so again, 161 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:49,639 I'm glad. 162 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: We don't we don't rehearse anything with this show. 163 00:08:52,639 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 2: And I had a Rob Vino was out with you, 164 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,039 Brian in Vegas last week. I saw you guys, you know, 165 00:08:59,159 --> 00:09:00,720 got to go to the show and stuff like that. 166 00:09:00,759 --> 00:09:03,840 And so I had a post fill in and I 167 00:09:03,879 --> 00:09:06,799 told my co host Matt on the College Basketball Show. 168 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,159 He published this whole like really nice write up for 169 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:11,960 one of the regions. I said, listen, I'm not going 170 00:09:12,039 --> 00:09:14,600 to read that prior to the show. 171 00:09:14,639 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: I don't want to like like subconsciously have my opinion, 172 00:09:19,159 --> 00:09:21,360 you know, agree with you. I don't want to know 173 00:09:21,399 --> 00:09:23,879 what you think prior to the show. That's the thing. 174 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,919 The three of us never talk before the show. 175 00:09:26,879 --> 00:09:29,759 Speaker 2: And so it makes for a better It makes a 176 00:09:29,759 --> 00:09:32,440 better show for you guys, because you want that sort 177 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:35,639 of you really want that disagreement if it's there. So 178 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:39,879 for me, like I'm very anti Yankees here, I don't 179 00:09:39,919 --> 00:09:42,919 see any merit to backing the Yankees at this price. 180 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:43,879 Speaker 1: That is a. 181 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 2: Major overreaction in the number to the first day. It 182 00:09:47,159 --> 00:09:50,000 has nothing to do with like, oh my handicap is this? Listen, 183 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,600 Cam Schlitzler throw who cares throw him out? I want 184 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,039 to I want to read off some eras for starting 185 00:09:56,039 --> 00:09:59,480 pitchers after yesterday. Freddie we're out to seven point two zero, 186 00:10:00,039 --> 00:10:05,840 Paul Skien's sixty seven. Okay, Shane's Smith Smith from the 187 00:10:05,879 --> 00:10:10,360 White Sox sixteen point two, Matthew Boyd fourteen point seventy three. 188 00:10:11,279 --> 00:10:11,639 Speaker 1: All Right. 189 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:15,399 Speaker 2: The point here is starting pitching at this point in 190 00:10:15,399 --> 00:10:20,360 the season matters as little as it's going to all year. 191 00:10:20,759 --> 00:10:24,440 So if you're like taxing this up based and that's 192 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,200 your only reason for it would be the starter you 193 00:10:27,279 --> 00:10:29,759 got to like probably go back to the drawing board 194 00:10:29,799 --> 00:10:32,799 with how you're looking at these games for now, like Tokyo, 195 00:10:32,879 --> 00:10:36,440 Brandon says, when you get into the year and you've 196 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:39,799 got some like in season data, then you might want 197 00:10:39,799 --> 00:10:42,519 to wait the starting pitching more. For me, I'm gonna 198 00:10:42,519 --> 00:10:46,039 be very like adamant about that. It's how the teams 199 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,320 are power rated, and you let the chips fall where 200 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,559 they land when it comes to the pitch and go ahead. 201 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:51,399 Speaker 1: Brian, would you have. 202 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 4: To say My question for you is you were comparing 203 00:10:53,759 --> 00:10:57,879 it to yesterday's line. If yesterday's game wasn't played and 204 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,279 this is the first game of the season, I still 205 00:11:00,279 --> 00:11:02,080 think it's an overlay for the Yankees. 206 00:11:03,799 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I do. I have. 207 00:11:05,799 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 2: I personally had I had these two teams in. 208 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,159 Speaker 1: San Francisco closer to even. 209 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,799 Speaker 2: So yes, I thought the first number that the price 210 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,720 on opening night was correct, and so yeah, now I 211 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,279 would have this about twenty cents off of where I 212 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:23,000 think it should be. 213 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:29,639 Speaker 3: I had TV Everyone's saying how they had a horrible day. 214 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 1: My day was great. 215 00:11:30,639 --> 00:11:34,799 Speaker 3: I've won my five percent play. Yamamoto strikeouts over five 216 00:11:34,799 --> 00:11:37,399 and a half and I you know, people in the 217 00:11:37,399 --> 00:11:40,159 comments are saying baseball is tough to bet and early 218 00:11:40,399 --> 00:11:43,080 actually I think the numbers are really soft at the beginning. 219 00:11:43,399 --> 00:11:45,919 You're never gonna see a Yamamoto strikeouts five and a 220 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,039 half for the rest of the season. But you saw 221 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,480 it yesterday and I jumped on it with five percent 222 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:52,919 and cashed it, So all right, I like the soft 223 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:54,320 numbers at the beginning of the season. 224 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 2: I like it well, Tokyo Brandon, I'm gonna I'm gonna 225 00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,320 come to you. We're gonna talk about that point and 226 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,720 I'm gonna segue into the next game. But like, I 227 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,360 don't disagree with you with numbers being soft, but I'm 228 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,440 gonna make a comparison to like something I experienced at 229 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:13,120 the beginning of college basketball season, where with the way 230 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,679 college basketball works now there's so many transfers, Like I 231 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,360 can beat numbers all day, Like I can identify soft 232 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:21,840 numbers all day. It's not the numbers being soft, it's 233 00:12:21,879 --> 00:12:24,960 it's the sort of like crazy variance at the beginning 234 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,440 of the season. And so like that's what I think 235 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:30,399 makes it more challenging. It's not like, yeah, it worked 236 00:12:30,399 --> 00:12:33,240 out for you with Yamamoto, but then like talk to 237 00:12:33,279 --> 00:12:36,879 someone that had something schemes related yesterday and it's like 238 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,600 that's more what I'm talking I guess what I refer 239 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:44,159 to is there's so much early season variants that I 240 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:48,879 think skewing a handicap based on a starting pitcher at 241 00:12:48,879 --> 00:12:51,000 the beginning of the year is I feel like if 242 00:12:51,039 --> 00:12:53,519 you do that more often than not, you're you're probably 243 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:57,679 going to end up not coming out ahead. Obviously on 244 00:12:57,720 --> 00:12:59,799 a one off that's great, But I'm gonna go back 245 00:12:59,799 --> 00:13:02,320 to you for this game because this was one where 246 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,120 I feel like the market was pretty skewed yesterday toward 247 00:13:05,159 --> 00:13:08,759 the Dodgers in favor of the Dodgers. It's still skewed 248 00:13:08,799 --> 00:13:11,519 that way today. No, you won yesterday with Yamamodo. Anyone 249 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,120 that bet the Dodgers yesterday would have cashed their ticket. 250 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,759 We go again today, Ryan Nelson, Emmett Shean, Are you 251 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:22,000 still trying to go Dodgers related here or would you 252 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,960 go the other way in this one? 253 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,799 Speaker 3: I'm going neither way. And actually my Partlayleg is going 254 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:30,039 to be in this game. I don't know if we 255 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:32,399 want to do it this early, but I'll just break 256 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:34,320 the game down in general, or should I just throw 257 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:34,799 it out there? 258 00:13:36,039 --> 00:13:37,759 Speaker 1: Throw it out there, we'll recap at the end, but 259 00:13:37,799 --> 00:13:39,600 go ahead yeah. 260 00:13:39,039 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 3: I'm I really like, you know, I look at the 261 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,679 numbers at the beginning with kind of an idea in 262 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,440 my head of what they're going to be, and sometimes 263 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:50,480 a number just jumps out at me and I have 264 00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:52,120 to take a double take. And this is one of 265 00:13:52,159 --> 00:13:55,159 those eight and a half for the game total. I thought, 266 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,639 that's crazy. I think this is going to go way over. 267 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,360 I like the over in this one. I put out 268 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:06,000 a free video on wager Talks YouTube channel today. It's 269 00:14:06,039 --> 00:14:08,000 probably not published yet, but it will be, and I 270 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:14,559 broke this down. But yeah, Ryan Nelson not the greatest 271 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,360 picture in the world, but he does have five recent 272 00:14:18,399 --> 00:14:20,879 starts against the Dodgers where he did well, So that's 273 00:14:20,919 --> 00:14:23,840 why this number I think is posted this low. But 274 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:26,279 the Dodgers are just a juggernaut. I think they can 275 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:31,879 get the over by themselves. Perhaps, but we got Shean 276 00:14:32,919 --> 00:14:36,919 Shan has looked good, but he's not exactly the most 277 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,480 reliable picture in the world. I don't know why the 278 00:14:39,519 --> 00:14:42,679 Dodgers are starting him on day two. They have a 279 00:14:42,679 --> 00:14:46,039 lot of pictures to go to besides him. I'm I'm 280 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:51,320 not knocking him, but I think I think the Diamondbacks 281 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,600 can get to him, and I think the Diamondbacks have 282 00:14:53,679 --> 00:14:58,120 one of the worst bullpens I've ever seen once. Ryan 283 00:14:58,159 --> 00:15:01,559 Nelson's not a guy who goes six an innings generally speaking. 284 00:15:01,679 --> 00:15:04,159 So I think the Dodgers are going to be able 285 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,519 to tee off on this bullpen for a good four 286 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,279 or five innings. And I'm all in on the over here. 287 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,279 That's gonna be my parlay. Leg is over eight and 288 00:15:11,279 --> 00:15:13,320 a half, Brian. 289 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 2: I want to get you in here on this one 290 00:15:14,879 --> 00:15:17,639 because I'm not disagreeing with your total. By the way, 291 00:15:17,799 --> 00:15:19,559 I don't have much of an opinion on the total, 292 00:15:19,639 --> 00:15:22,799 but again, like I'm I mean, there is like a 293 00:15:22,879 --> 00:15:25,879 substant you are paying a massive tax in my opinion, 294 00:15:25,919 --> 00:15:30,200 to do anything like Dodgers related. The other thing, someone 295 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,720 corrected us yesterday and said, the ring ceremony is today. 296 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,120 But here's the thing, it doesn't. The whole weekend is 297 00:15:37,159 --> 00:15:40,200 the ceremony. Yesterday, they raised the banner. Today, it'll do 298 00:15:40,279 --> 00:15:42,960 the rings. It'll be like a wedding where everyone goes 299 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:45,480 to breakfast before the Sunday game. These things used to 300 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,320 be like, hey quick, here's your rings. I think it 301 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:50,639 was like the Braves five years ago. That was like No, 302 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,360 we're doing the whole weekend and now it's like a 303 00:15:53,399 --> 00:15:56,720 four day thing, so you still have all the distractions. 304 00:15:56,879 --> 00:15:59,159 The Dodgers are still sitting there well over a two 305 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,440 dollars favorite Brian Leonard or do you have any desire 306 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:03,879 to punch back with the Dbacks here? 307 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 4: Well as for the ceremonies, it'd be different if it 308 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:12,600 was the Angels, but it's the Dodgers. How many Dodgers 309 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,000 the one like twelve out the last thirteen divisions. They've 310 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:16,480 had a lot of success. I don't think it's a 311 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,360 big deal for them. It's probably more of a pain 312 00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:22,440 and they asked for Arizona and probably an inspiration for 313 00:16:22,519 --> 00:16:25,320 them to get back to where they were just a 314 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:31,600 couple of years ago. But I'm a big San fan. 315 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:38,159 I'm a Shapan and I follow him a lot on 316 00:16:38,279 --> 00:16:43,639 social media and everything, and he is a very good picture. 317 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,159 He may be the ace of this picture by the 318 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,840 end of the season. But going into the seat, going 319 00:16:49,879 --> 00:16:52,120 into the beginning of the year, they were talking about 320 00:16:52,159 --> 00:16:55,120 piggybacking him because the last time he went out he 321 00:16:55,159 --> 00:17:00,200 had he had decreased velocity. So there were so cons 322 00:17:01,159 --> 00:17:04,400 After all the talk about Emma Chan and the future 323 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:08,519 of this guy. They were not going to start him. 324 00:17:09,039 --> 00:17:11,400 Now they are going to start it, which means I'm 325 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:15,160 assuming they had they had a throwing session or whatever 326 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,680 between his last start and his velocity was back up. 327 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,160 But you do get that during this year. We see 328 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,160 it in the preseason. They in the spring training, a 329 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:27,119 lot of guys get the tired arm and it happens 330 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,319 a lot guys. Guys want to get out and they 331 00:17:29,319 --> 00:17:31,200 want to start throwing early, want to be ready for 332 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,240 the season. And I think that's part of the reason 333 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:38,839 why I think there's value here on Ry Nelson. Nelson 334 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,119 had a really good year last year. He doesn't have 335 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:47,359 great a great repertoire pitches, but what he throws, he 336 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,720 has success and he's finally gotten confidence. And for so 337 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:55,240 long we have faded Ry Nelson that a lot of 338 00:17:55,279 --> 00:17:59,559 people just blindly to Dodgers against Arizona, and I think 339 00:17:59,599 --> 00:18:02,920 there's value on Arizona. I agree with the bullpen, but 340 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,000 if you take a look at the bullpen, it's not 341 00:18:05,039 --> 00:18:07,799 a good bullpen. But none of their key guys pitched yesterday, 342 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,799 so they've got the full bullpen, and the Dodgers used 343 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:12,839 they're not eighth in a guy and he know it 344 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,160 threw up your pitcher, so he'll be available. But if 345 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,799 there's anything to play in this game, I may find 346 00:18:18,799 --> 00:18:21,119 a way to play Arizona. I just think it's the 347 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:25,799 line's a little bit pumped up. And I love the Dodgers, 348 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,160 but you know they were losing at one point yesterday 349 00:18:29,319 --> 00:18:32,880 and you know, until they got to a pitcher, I'm 350 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,359 not even that happy with I would rather hate Ryan. 351 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,720 Nelson's an upgrade from a starting pitcher standpoint to Gallon 352 00:18:38,799 --> 00:18:41,319 right now, So I prefer Arizona. 353 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you ninety nine percentile fast while we 354 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:46,119 talked about it. 355 00:18:46,519 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 1: Nelson has a great heater. Arizona. You can get plus 356 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:51,759 one and a half minus one ten right now. That's, 357 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,640 in my opinion, a pretty solid way to attack that 358 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:55,960 game with them being on the road. 359 00:18:56,519 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 2: But again, it doesn't that doesn't change my like TV's 360 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,720 opinion on the over has absolutely nothing to do with that. 361 00:19:03,839 --> 00:19:07,160 For me, I think both teams can absolutely contribute to 362 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:07,960 the offense there. 363 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 1: So yeah, but I do lean toward Arizona on the side. TV. 364 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 2: I'm gonna come to you, so next ten minutes or so, 365 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:16,079 we'll go a little bit quicker. 366 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:17,039 Speaker 1: We'll go through the chat. 367 00:19:17,319 --> 00:19:19,799 Speaker 2: I spent more time on two of the games because 368 00:19:19,799 --> 00:19:22,160 we only have eight games today, so we'll go a 369 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,160 little bit more rapid fire on these. I'm gonna come 370 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:28,519 to TV first. 371 00:19:27,079 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 1: He says. I agree. TV went five and two in 372 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:29,440 two days. 373 00:19:29,519 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 2: Question, So I'm assuming this is a question for Tokyo 374 00:19:32,039 --> 00:19:37,119 Brandon King. That would be Michael King. Horrible spring, absolutely 375 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:41,160 awful spring for him, fifteen and a half outs and 376 00:19:40,799 --> 00:19:46,119 even our chat person here, Adrenaline Junkie Dave. That's a 377 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:50,240 great name, by the way, Adrenaline Junkie Dave says, tough 378 00:19:50,279 --> 00:19:53,200 spring for King? Does he get over that number? So 379 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,279 Tokyo Brandon, talk to me about Michael King. But also 380 00:19:56,599 --> 00:19:58,640 if you have anything in that game that's gonna be 381 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:05,599 Padres Tigers out well today. 382 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 3: Let me see. I gotta find my my outs projections. 383 00:20:07,319 --> 00:20:10,759 I have them. So people in the chat are asking me, 384 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:12,960 what do you think of the strikeouts for this? What 385 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,319 do you think of the outs for this? My strikeouts 386 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,079 projections for the pictures, I've already put it on my 387 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,599 Twitter x at Tokyo under Barb Brandon. The outs I'll 388 00:20:22,599 --> 00:20:25,119 put up later. So it's very hard to like look 389 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:26,720 things up on the spot. 390 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:32,319 Speaker 2: When I'm gimm anytime someone asks for strikeouts or outs, 391 00:20:32,319 --> 00:20:34,799 if you posted it to Twitter, that's a great spot 392 00:20:34,799 --> 00:20:36,359 to just be like, go to my Twitter. 393 00:20:36,519 --> 00:20:37,039 Speaker 1: I love that. 394 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,880 Speaker 3: Yes, So that's what I'm saying now. So here's the 395 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:48,920 strikeouts and the outs. So Michael King. Actually, my projection 396 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,200 for Michael King is seventeen outs. I don't know if 397 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:55,240 he's going to get there though, because that's what seventeen 398 00:20:55,279 --> 00:20:59,559 outs is, two outs in the sixth inning. Man. You 399 00:20:59,599 --> 00:21:02,440 know Mike King last year, didn't he start as kind 400 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,680 of a reliever and you know, a start like he'd 401 00:21:06,759 --> 00:21:10,160 come in for like four innings. And I don't think 402 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,680 of him as a guy who goes long, deep into games. 403 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,240 But my projection is seventeen I don't know if I 404 00:21:15,279 --> 00:21:16,839 agree with my own projection, though. 405 00:21:17,799 --> 00:21:19,680 Speaker 2: I want to bring Ran in on the same game 406 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,279 because I want him to just talk about like horrific 407 00:21:23,319 --> 00:21:26,440 spring and how he sort of evaluates a player now 408 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:27,799 coming into the regular season. 409 00:21:28,759 --> 00:21:33,319 Speaker 4: I believe I read an article that Michael King's velocity 410 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:37,799 was back up last game. I could be wrong, but 411 00:21:38,319 --> 00:21:41,079 there's so many players baseball. I tend to lose track. 412 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:47,400 I do say that I like Michael King. He's a 413 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:51,039 very good pitcher. I don't think the Detroit offense is 414 00:21:51,079 --> 00:21:55,319 as good as it was yesterday. My projection on this 415 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,960 game is San Diego should be favored and probably about 416 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,440 you know, probably about the one thirty range and right 417 00:22:01,519 --> 00:22:03,880 now we're looking at them and probably about the one 418 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,799 twenty one, twenty five range. So to me, slight value 419 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,200 on King. Valdez is another one of those pitchers, and 420 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,359 I said it yesterday and talking about the Mets pitcher 421 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,839 that I usually like to fade guys their first start 422 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,240 with a new team. Valdez was the big golf season 423 00:22:23,319 --> 00:22:26,880 signing for the Tigers. Tigers blew out San Diego yesterday, 424 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,240 or I'm looking at this game. I had the teams 425 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:37,559 rated similarly. I think Detroit overall is a slightly better team. 426 00:22:37,839 --> 00:22:39,599 They don't get a lot of credit because they play 427 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:43,039 in the Central of the America League. But I think 428 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,160 overall San Diego is going to be able a little 429 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,519 bit down this year as compared to last year. But 430 00:22:48,319 --> 00:22:50,480 this game, the line on this game is about what 431 00:22:50,559 --> 00:22:52,640 I would make it, so I don't have a lot 432 00:22:53,039 --> 00:22:56,480 on it. It is going to be a low scoring game. 433 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,799 I would expect more out of King than what we've 434 00:22:59,799 --> 00:23:04,480 seen in the preseason. And if even if he runs 435 00:23:04,519 --> 00:23:07,400 into trouble, hey we've got you know, it's on the 436 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,440 second game of the season. San Diego's got plenty of ball. 437 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,440 They got one of the best, if not the best 438 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,400 bullpens in Major League Baseball. So if he can only 439 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,680 if he only goes four innings, then I'm not worried 440 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,279 about San Diego. Is they've got the better bullpen going 441 00:23:19,279 --> 00:23:20,119 the rest of the way out. 442 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,599 Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe maybe you do trust TV's projection of that 443 00:23:23,799 --> 00:23:26,720 seventeen you know, plus outs, and maybe you are getting 444 00:23:26,759 --> 00:23:29,039 a little bit of a discount on anything King related 445 00:23:29,279 --> 00:23:32,519 because of the bad spring TB coming to you for 446 00:23:32,599 --> 00:23:35,079 this game. We're going to raise an energy drink to 447 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,559 you right now because maybe we're two days in. Maybe 448 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,400 the best point anyone's made yet on the show would 449 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,720 be guys that just played in the World Baseball Classic, 450 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,480 like kind of not being ready to play in their 451 00:23:47,519 --> 00:23:52,480 opening day game. Aaron Judge four strikeouts and the opener 452 00:23:52,559 --> 00:23:54,400 Paul Skens, doesn't get out of the first inning. He 453 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,680 can thank O'Neil Cruz for that, although I doubt he 454 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,319 would have had a sharp outing even if only careers 455 00:24:00,319 --> 00:24:02,599 could play center field. The reason I'm bringing this up 456 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:04,200 is I want to come to you because we have 457 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,480 a chat question about the A's. 458 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 1: Chat. 459 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 2: In the chat, they want to know just general, how 460 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,119 are the A's going to be? We actually talked about 461 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,799 that on the show on Wednesday. So for the general 462 00:24:15,839 --> 00:24:18,680 take on the A's, head back to Wednesday's preview show. 463 00:24:19,279 --> 00:24:21,559 But the reason I'm coming to you for this game, Tokyo, Brandon, 464 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,359 is is you kind of circle Luis Severino as maybe 465 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,519 a fade when he pops up in his first, you know, 466 00:24:28,559 --> 00:24:30,920 in his season debut. And here he goes up to 467 00:24:31,559 --> 00:24:34,240 up north of the border to a very very good 468 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,440 Blue Jays team. So talk to me as J's. Is 469 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:37,440 that how you're looking at this? 470 00:24:38,279 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, and let's see, let me get this time stamp 471 00:24:42,039 --> 00:24:50,440 in here real quick. We're at twenty four, okay, So, uh, Severino, 472 00:24:50,559 --> 00:24:53,720 this is a good spot, not for Severino, but it's 473 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:58,160 a good betting spot for us. So yesterday you guys 474 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,960 mentioned how per Alta got hammered, but I had his 475 00:25:01,039 --> 00:25:03,480 strikeout prop and he got seven k's even though he 476 00:25:03,559 --> 00:25:07,200 gave up just about as many earned runs. So Severino, 477 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,079 you know when you get an underdog like this. And 478 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,279 regarding the World Baseball Classic, yes, he pitched in a 479 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:17,720 very high leverage situation for his country in the knockout 480 00:25:17,799 --> 00:25:20,240 round for the World Baseball Classic, So yes, I do 481 00:25:20,319 --> 00:25:23,799 expect a little bit of regression. Also, the Blue Jays 482 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:29,000 excellent home team. And let's not forget they won their division. 483 00:25:29,759 --> 00:25:31,839 They're a good team. They went to the World Series. 484 00:25:32,759 --> 00:25:35,559 They're a very good team. A couple of changes in 485 00:25:35,599 --> 00:25:39,519 the offseason for them, but they're still a good team. Severino, 486 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:43,319 I never really liked him that much, and I think 487 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,240 he might get hammered, but I think he'll have kind 488 00:25:45,279 --> 00:25:48,680 of a peralta kind of outing today. But his strikeout 489 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:53,000 prop I'm projecting him at five strikeouts and the book 490 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,559 has him at three and a half, So I think 491 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,440 that might be a spot. If you really want to 492 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,519 back Severino in one way or another, I wouldn't do 493 00:25:59,559 --> 00:26:02,440 it on the SIE because I think he's going to 494 00:26:02,519 --> 00:26:03,920 have a Parleta type outing. 495 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 2: Coming to Brian on the same game, uh, Severino has 496 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,440 been a lot better on the road. He seems to 497 00:26:10,519 --> 00:26:12,960 enjoy pitching on the road and not in Sacramento. Is 498 00:26:13,039 --> 00:26:14,440 does that play in at all? 499 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 1: Do you hear? 500 00:26:15,759 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 4: Uh? You had mentioned players who play BOYD was another 501 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:24,240 one boy BOYD similar to the to the last guy 502 00:26:24,279 --> 00:26:26,000 that Tokyo was talking about. He had a seven to 503 00:26:26,039 --> 00:26:29,319 one streckout to walk Ratio still got hit and he 504 00:26:29,319 --> 00:26:34,920 played in the in the tournament. Also, I'm a little 505 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:39,119 torn on sever Reno. Uh and the comment about he 506 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,920 doesn't do well at home. You're going to find a 507 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:43,920 lot of pitchers that don't do well out in Sacramento. 508 00:26:44,039 --> 00:26:47,839 It's I've been out there. It's yeah, it's it's a 509 00:26:47,839 --> 00:26:50,799 good hitters ballpark. We all know that now. Uh So 510 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,960 you would expect all their pitchers to actually do a 511 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,079 little bit better on the road. I do have the 512 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:59,720 same concerns about sever Reino. I had seen a lot 513 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,240 of a lot of those pitchers that I thought were 514 00:27:02,319 --> 00:27:04,359 washed up because if you looked at you know, the 515 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,559 Venezuela pitching staff and in the DC pitching staff, some 516 00:27:07,559 --> 00:27:09,680 of the ODR pitching staff, they had a lot of 517 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,279 older veterans and they all pitched well. It just it 518 00:27:12,319 --> 00:27:16,680 was their game. Rodriguez for Arizona, they were great and 519 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,720 I'm taking, oh, what a mismatch schemes again. But if 520 00:27:20,799 --> 00:27:23,240 you have that emotion behind you now, it is the 521 00:27:23,279 --> 00:27:25,640 opening game of the season for these two teams, so 522 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,079 maybe he'll have that again here. I'm looking to Faye 523 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,640 Gousman a little bit this year. I just don't think 524 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:33,480 this is a good division for him to be in 525 00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:35,960 a lot of good hitting teams here. He's getting up 526 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:40,480 there in Age and the Oakland A's or Sacramento as 527 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,119 Vegas Age, whichever you will prefer. They're a good hitting team. 528 00:27:44,319 --> 00:27:46,400 They're able to hit on the road. I kind of 529 00:27:46,519 --> 00:27:49,119 like the Athletics in this game. You're getting them at 530 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,039 plus you know, anywhere from plus one forty five to 531 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:54,480 one fifty seven. I'm lucky to fade Toronto a little bit. 532 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,920 They've had major injuries from starting pitchers. They've got some 533 00:27:58,039 --> 00:28:03,079 key relievers that have been hurt. Toronto everybody, you know, 534 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,720 everybody remembers what he did in the playoffs. Look at 535 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,000 their record season record, and then look at the rend 536 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,119 score and run against that kind of thing, and then 537 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,359 coming into the stations a little bit overrated in my mind. 538 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,559 So I'm mking a piece of the Athletics here. Some way. 539 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,799 Speaker 2: Yeah, and listen, Brian, you know there's a couple of 540 00:28:19,799 --> 00:28:21,759 people in the chat that were, you know, kind of 541 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,559 alluding to, well, Ken Gossman be trusted. Well, the A's 542 00:28:25,559 --> 00:28:27,720 are going to hit. Hitting is not going to be 543 00:28:27,759 --> 00:28:31,680 their problem. So the A's can absolutely get to Gossman. 544 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,799 It's it's can they keep Toronto from scoring enough runs 545 00:28:35,799 --> 00:28:38,440 to you know, to win that game. They will hit 546 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,880 the ball TV you're nodding, Do you do you want 547 00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,960 to like kind of hammer that point home? 548 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 3: Yeah? Mark Lambert in the comments, he asked me, he said, 549 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,559 do you trust Gusman today? And I just wrote back 550 00:28:50,599 --> 00:28:52,359 in the comments, I said, he's going to be shaky, 551 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,000 but that lineup will back him up, so he could 552 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:56,759 It could be one of those where he gives up 553 00:28:56,799 --> 00:28:58,920 five and runs and still gets the win. Kind of 554 00:28:59,079 --> 00:29:04,440 kind of starts. Probably this game is probably going to 555 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:06,880 be one of those, you know, ten to seven kind 556 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,680 of games. It looks to me, but you know, you 557 00:29:09,799 --> 00:29:13,160 never know, but it's opening day, so but me, that's 558 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,079 what it looks like. It looks like Gausman's gonna give 559 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,160 up maybe four or five earned runs but still get 560 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:17,440 the win. 561 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 4: Kind of thing to me, internal line on the athletics 562 00:29:21,079 --> 00:29:21,960 just three and a half. 563 00:29:22,359 --> 00:29:26,559 Speaker 3: Oh my goodness. Yeah, well Gousman is a good pitcher, 564 00:29:26,759 --> 00:29:29,799 but I think his name is better than his skill 565 00:29:29,839 --> 00:29:31,079 at this point in his career. 566 00:29:33,519 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 1: Yeah. I a lot of good points made right there. 567 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,960 Speaker 2: I couldn't really push back on any of those, just 568 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,279 to answer and then we'll move on. But the original 569 00:29:43,359 --> 00:29:45,480 question of like, where are you at on the A's, 570 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:47,720 I do not think the A's are a good baseball 571 00:29:47,759 --> 00:29:49,200 team from a win loss perspective. 572 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:50,319 Speaker 1: I think they will. 573 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:52,839 Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna win as many games as 574 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,880 people think they're gonna win. But it's not because of 575 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:59,400 their offense. It's because they lack pitching. No starting pitching 576 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,759 on that team, in my opinion. And I don't think 577 00:30:01,759 --> 00:30:04,160 they're bulltens as good as people think it's going to be. 578 00:30:04,279 --> 00:30:06,519 They're gonna need they're gonna need to catch lightning in 579 00:30:06,559 --> 00:30:08,599 a bottle a couple of places. They're gonna need some 580 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:13,359 young guys to really show out, and I just don't 581 00:30:13,359 --> 00:30:15,799 know if you can, Like, I'm just not trusting that. 582 00:30:16,079 --> 00:30:17,720 So they're gonna be a team that I think is 583 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:19,279 gonna be fun to watch. We're gonna score a ton 584 00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:21,920 of runs, but they may give up as many as 585 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,720 anyone in the American League. Queen Rock says, let's win 586 00:30:24,759 --> 00:30:27,359 the parlay for my birthday today. Yeah, first of all, 587 00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,799 happy birthday. Second of all, we absolutely. 588 00:30:30,279 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: Want to do that. 589 00:30:31,759 --> 00:30:34,279 Speaker 2: Tokyo Brandon has already revealed what is parlay leg is 590 00:30:34,319 --> 00:30:37,279 gonna be. So I'm just gonna give you the floor 591 00:30:37,319 --> 00:30:40,839 here TV Dealer's Choice. Talk about one of the games 592 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,359 that we have not talked about yet, and then you 593 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,119 can tell us you can just recap your parlay leg 594 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:46,720 at the end of that. 595 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:53,599 Speaker 3: Okay, sounds good. Let's talk about the game that everyone's 596 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:57,920 gonna have their eyes on the Rockies in Marlins. So 597 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:03,279 this is an interesting game because the Marlins are generally 598 00:31:03,319 --> 00:31:06,799 known as being a poor team, but I think they're 599 00:31:06,799 --> 00:31:10,799 on the up. They've got a starter here who used 600 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,440 kind of similar to Gausman. He used to be an 601 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,759 absolute stud and he's fading a little bit, but he's 602 00:31:16,759 --> 00:31:20,599 still a good pitcher, kind of like Gausman going against Freeland, 603 00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:24,200 who I actually think Freeland has some skills. It's just 604 00:31:24,319 --> 00:31:29,160 unfortunate that he plays for Colorado and he actually has 605 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:34,000 pretty good road numbers in his career, So this will 606 00:31:34,039 --> 00:31:37,039 be an interesting game. I'm not gonna, you know, come 607 00:31:37,079 --> 00:31:39,759 out and say, oh, definitely this way or definitely that way. 608 00:31:40,039 --> 00:31:42,920 The price seems a little steep from Miami, but they 609 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:47,240 do have the better bullpen, and they, in my opinion, 610 00:31:47,279 --> 00:31:49,480 have the better lineup and the better starting pitcher. But 611 00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:54,720 minus one eighty little steep. But to me, to a 612 00:31:54,759 --> 00:31:58,720 normal casual fan, this game looks maybe kind of crappy, 613 00:31:58,759 --> 00:32:00,319 But to me, this is going to be a really 614 00:32:00,319 --> 00:32:03,799 interesting game. I want to see how Freelin does and 615 00:32:03,839 --> 00:32:08,000 I want to see how the Marlins have improved. I 616 00:32:08,079 --> 00:32:11,279 said on a previous show, I have the Marlins team 617 00:32:11,359 --> 00:32:14,920 total for the season over seventy three. I expect a 618 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,599 breakout for them. But you know, every time I criticize 619 00:32:18,599 --> 00:32:21,559 the Brewers, they go sky high, and every time I 620 00:32:21,599 --> 00:32:24,279 back a team, they take a dump. So we'll see 621 00:32:24,319 --> 00:32:26,400 what happens. But this is the game I have my 622 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:28,880 eye on. I don't really know which way it's going 623 00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:29,599 to go, though. 624 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:32,279 Speaker 1: I think it's listen. 625 00:32:32,519 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 2: I can't put anyone off of thinking both of these 626 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:40,200 teams are probably like I'm higher than the market on 627 00:32:40,279 --> 00:32:44,279 both Marlin's Rockies. Peter Bendix is just going to continue 628 00:32:44,319 --> 00:32:47,119 to do his thing down there with that farm system, 629 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:51,279 and they're both I see tons of upside relative to 630 00:32:51,279 --> 00:32:53,640 where the market is on both the Marlins and the 631 00:32:53,759 --> 00:32:56,359 Rockies this year. It will be interesting to just see, 632 00:32:56,400 --> 00:33:00,119 like kind of how that series plays out this weekend. 633 00:33:01,119 --> 00:33:02,359 Speaker 1: Brian's kind of nodding over there. 634 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,359 Speaker 2: You may get a scenario where like one of these 635 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:09,000 teams sweeps or something and then is massively overrated going 636 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,079 into the next week, or very undervalued. 637 00:33:11,119 --> 00:33:12,279 Speaker 1: But Tokyo, Brandon. 638 00:33:12,279 --> 00:33:15,279 Speaker 2: Before I go to Brian for his best bet, recap 639 00:33:15,319 --> 00:33:18,480 your parlay leg, and you had the five percent winner yesterday, 640 00:33:18,519 --> 00:33:20,519 So tell the folks what you're looking at today, what 641 00:33:20,559 --> 00:33:21,599 you've got up for sale. 642 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 3: So, as I said earlier recapping my parlay leg, I'm 643 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:30,039 going to take the Dodgers Diamondbacks over eight and a half. 644 00:33:31,519 --> 00:33:34,400 And as I said earlier in the show, on my Twitter, 645 00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:39,519 I usually put up the outs props and my projections 646 00:33:39,519 --> 00:33:43,240 for outs and strikeouts. So take a look there if 647 00:33:43,519 --> 00:33:46,039 you're gonna because during the show when I'm talking, I'm 648 00:33:46,039 --> 00:33:49,200 fifty five. I can't multitask anymore. I used to, but 649 00:33:49,279 --> 00:33:51,240 I can't now. So take a look at my Twitter. 650 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:52,880 It's all there. I'm sorry to be rude to you 651 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,319 guys in not answer. So I have another five percent 652 00:33:56,440 --> 00:34:00,480 play out today. As I said earlier, I love the 653 00:34:00,519 --> 00:34:02,559 beginning of the season. I just think the numbers are 654 00:34:02,559 --> 00:34:04,759 soft and I think it's a chance to take advantage. 655 00:34:05,039 --> 00:34:07,079 So I do have another five percent play out, and 656 00:34:07,119 --> 00:34:10,400 I won yesterday's. Yes. People in the comments are saying, oh, 657 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,280 you got lucky. Look, good luck and bad luck happen 658 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,880 at exactly the same rate. So don't you know you 659 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,519 remember the bad ones more than you remember the good ones, but. 660 00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:23,840 Speaker 1: They have you never apologize for a winever. 661 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:28,679 Speaker 3: Ever, it's not apologizing. I'm saying shut out because good 662 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:32,039 luck and bad luck happened exactly the same rate the 663 00:34:32,079 --> 00:34:34,239 bad beats. You get just as many good beats as 664 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,119 bad beats. And I'll take a good beat on my 665 00:34:36,159 --> 00:34:39,079 five percent any day. It's the second best beat I've 666 00:34:39,079 --> 00:34:41,960 ever had in my career, so I'll take it. And 667 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,000 I have another one today, which I'm actually more confident of. 668 00:34:45,599 --> 00:34:46,639 So let's go. 669 00:34:49,679 --> 00:34:51,719 Speaker 2: All right, Brian Leonard, I'm coming to you for your 670 00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,840 parlay le, your best bet, and also what you've got 671 00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:56,119 going on today at wager talk. 672 00:34:57,079 --> 00:34:59,880 Speaker 4: I actually just want one final comment about the lucky. 673 00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,719 The better handicapper you are, the more bad beats you're 674 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:05,840 going to have, because you're going to win more games. 675 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:09,880 At least you should win more games. And Brandon's already 676 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:13,000 pointed out over the years is a very good baseball handicapper. 677 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:14,639 So I just leave it at that. I'm gonna go 678 00:35:14,679 --> 00:35:17,199 back to the same game. I'm gonna look at Colorado Miami. 679 00:35:17,559 --> 00:35:19,280 I got to get a little bit of a grin 680 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,840 when he said the game everybody is excited for. I 681 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,920 actually am excited for this game. And the reason being 682 00:35:26,199 --> 00:35:31,679 is Colorado traditionally has been a good home team terrible 683 00:35:31,679 --> 00:35:35,000 on the road. What makes them that way the air 684 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:40,599 in Colorado. Your breaking balls don't break and it throws 685 00:35:40,599 --> 00:35:44,199 them off. So when Colorado, this is the first game 686 00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,559 of the season Colorado, when they play in Colorado and 687 00:35:46,559 --> 00:35:48,760 play a series or whatever, then they go on the road, 688 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,320 then you want to fade them because they have no 689 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:54,199 confidence in their breaking balls, and the breaking balls actually 690 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:58,000 are normal when they pitch anywhere else. So this is 691 00:35:58,039 --> 00:36:01,039 the first game of the season, so that's not a worry. 692 00:36:02,199 --> 00:36:05,400 Freeland's going for Colorado he's a lefty. Miami doesn't have 693 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,920 a lot of power anyway. Their biggest power bat is 694 00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:11,000 Hurt and if you take a look at Miami's guys, 695 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:16,880 their power guys are all left handed hitters. So the 696 00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:21,079 number nine guy for call Or for Miami, Connor Norby, 697 00:36:21,119 --> 00:36:23,920 maybe their best home run hitter in this game. You 698 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,840 don't want that because they're going to have co nine 699 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,519 and Cassie are going to be out and we're likely 700 00:36:29,559 --> 00:36:31,440 to see Austin Slater, who hasn't it a home run 701 00:36:31,519 --> 00:36:34,800 probably ten years, and so they're not going to have 702 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:36,880 the power. So you're taking away the home runs. It's 703 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:38,400 not a good home run park in the first place, 704 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,199 but you're taking away the home runs here. And I 705 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:45,760 like the Colorado side. I like the offense for Colorado 706 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:49,079 the book. The pitching is still going to be Colorado pitching. 707 00:36:49,159 --> 00:36:51,280 They're going to give up some runs. I don't like 708 00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:55,079 anything that they've done in that regard. But Friedland's a veteran. 709 00:36:55,440 --> 00:37:01,519 He's taken the opening day pitch to opening day many times. Oktara, 710 00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,719 the guy had Timmy John surgery a couple years ago. 711 00:37:05,679 --> 00:37:07,760 It was really terrible in the first half, as you 712 00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:10,639 would expect coming back from TJ, and then as the 713 00:37:10,639 --> 00:37:12,320 season went on, he pitched pretty well. So a lot 714 00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,679 of people are buying into him right now, which is 715 00:37:15,679 --> 00:37:18,599 why where the line is, there's no way that Miami 716 00:37:18,639 --> 00:37:21,320 should be what a one anywhere from a one eighty 717 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,639 to a two dollars favorite. I don't care who they're playing. 718 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,559 Colorado can have all their batteries batting the opposite hand 719 00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:28,880 and I still wouldn't late two to one on Miami. 720 00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:31,920 So give me Colorado and maybe the first time all year, 721 00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,400 maybe the last time all year, I'll be on Colorado 722 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,480 on the road. But there's value in the Rockies in this. 723 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:41,480 Speaker 1: Game, Brian, What is your are you going Rockies? Money line? 724 00:37:41,519 --> 00:37:41,840 Speaker 4: Right there? 725 00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:42,519 Speaker 1: Is that the play? 726 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,719 Speaker 4: Let me see, you could get like the one sixty 727 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:51,719 five range. If you're looking at spread, you can get 728 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,000 one and a half minus one thirty Let's do that. 729 00:37:54,079 --> 00:37:56,000 Let's go one and a half plus one and a 730 00:37:56,039 --> 00:37:59,639 half minus one thirty five because the totals only seven 731 00:37:59,679 --> 00:38:02,159 and a half, so they're not expecting many runs, so 732 00:38:02,199 --> 00:38:05,079 that extra run means a lot, so for the people 733 00:38:05,079 --> 00:38:06,840 in the parlay where they don't have to sweat out 734 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:11,639 colroad bullpen to hold the league. Let's stick to plus 735 00:38:11,639 --> 00:38:12,360 one and a half here. 736 00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:17,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I do the best arms. 737 00:38:18,599 --> 00:38:19,760 Speaker 1: Listen, I'll say this. 738 00:38:20,599 --> 00:38:22,800 Speaker 2: Probably you're gonna hear me say this a whole bunch, 739 00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,920 probably over the next month, the next two months. The 740 00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,840 Rockies on a day to day basis, are probably going 741 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,159 to be a play this year, and they're probably gonna 742 00:38:32,159 --> 00:38:33,920 be They're gonna be value, but they're gonna be a play, 743 00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:35,760 so going I just want to make a quick point 744 00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,360 on the Rockies. Last year, they showed value a lot 745 00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,800 of times, but that was a historically bad team. This 746 00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,800 team is, in my opinion, much better than last year's team. 747 00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:47,239 So I think you're gonna see this team follow a 748 00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:51,360 similar trajectory of last year's White Sox, where they're they're 749 00:38:51,639 --> 00:38:54,960 gonna have a good chance to win more than sixty games. 750 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,880 So last year's White Sox finished sixty to one oh two. 751 00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,039 But the reason that I like that Brian's going to 752 00:39:01,079 --> 00:39:03,159 the plus one and a half here is I think 753 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,840 some of those losses are gonna turn into wins. But 754 00:39:06,119 --> 00:39:08,239 from last year, if you remember, the Rockies were getting 755 00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:11,599 blown out like on a they were losing, and they 756 00:39:11,599 --> 00:39:14,079 were losing big. I think some of their losses are 757 00:39:14,079 --> 00:39:16,480 going to turn into close losses. And if you go 758 00:39:16,519 --> 00:39:18,719 back to last year's White Sox, we said it yesterday, 759 00:39:19,039 --> 00:39:22,800 fifteen and thirty six in one run games. So the 760 00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:25,400 White Sox were actually pretty profitable against the one and 761 00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,079 a half last year. Because though that fifteen and thirty 762 00:39:28,119 --> 00:39:32,239 six and one run games, what is that quick twenty 763 00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,320 one losses that you would have cashed if you had 764 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,480 the plus one and a half. I think you're gonna 765 00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:38,800 see something similar for the right Rockies this year. Not 766 00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:42,199 only are they going to probably drastically improve on their 767 00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,440 win total, but they're probably gonna lose a lot of 768 00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:49,199 one run games because that's what teams sort of figuring 769 00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:50,559 out how to win. 770 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,199 Speaker 1: Do usually they usually have to lose. That's another reason 771 00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,199 I like the White Sox this year because I think 772 00:39:56,199 --> 00:39:58,760 they were in so many games last year that maybe 773 00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:00,599 they'll figure out how to win some of them, or 774 00:40:00,639 --> 00:40:01,679 maybe they'll just get lucky. 775 00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,360 Speaker 2: Maybe they just had bad luck last year losing that 776 00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,719 many close games. So I love where your head's at 777 00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,840 right there on the Rockies. All I have to promo 778 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:13,519 today is the double play. So that is our package. 779 00:40:13,519 --> 00:40:15,400 On the page, you can get any of us too. 780 00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:15,760 Speaker 1: Listen. 781 00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,480 Speaker 2: If you want a baseball play today by Tokyo Brandon's play. 782 00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,559 He's got a five percenter. He's coming off a five 783 00:40:20,599 --> 00:40:23,239 percent win. I don't even know what it is. If 784 00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,440 I were to promo something here, I would say, go 785 00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,400 get his. I have a client play locked in, thank you, 786 00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,480 but I would go get his. I'm gonna I doubt 787 00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:33,440 I'm even gonna put it up for individual sale. 788 00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:33,639 Speaker 4: Now. 789 00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,320 Speaker 2: If you want a college too play, check out your boy. 790 00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,159 I hit with Texas last night, Nevada the night before. 791 00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,840 I've got a five percent college basketball play. So that's 792 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:43,920 what you're looking at for me. TV's got the five 793 00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,599 percent baseball play. Brian Leonard, jump in here. What else 794 00:40:46,639 --> 00:40:47,159 do you've got here? 795 00:40:47,199 --> 00:40:49,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I forgot to promote myself. I'm sorry about that. Yeah, 796 00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,719 I've got a five percent going in college basketball today 797 00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:55,840 in the Sweet sixteen two and oh so far in 798 00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,840 the big Dance on the five percent plays. Love this play. 799 00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,480 Put it up really early, and I'll be working on 800 00:41:01,519 --> 00:41:03,760 more baseball. I've got hockey show coming up after that, 801 00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,760 So my players are going to be a little bit 802 00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:09,960 delayed today, but not totally in love with the baseball cards, 803 00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,519 so you may not be missing a whole lot in baseball, 804 00:41:12,559 --> 00:41:15,039 but I do like the Rockets. 805 00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:19,880 Speaker 3: Can I mention something? Sorry to cut in here asking 806 00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:21,840 me if my five percent is a picture prop. It 807 00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,039 is not a picture prop, it's a side bet, but. 808 00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:29,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, I believe you should put that in there. Yeah, 809 00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:31,599 every day they would know, he probably did. 810 00:41:32,639 --> 00:41:35,920 Speaker 3: I did, And I just want to give a quick 811 00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,960 detail on our double play package. You can pick two 812 00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:42,079 of us on this show and you get three days 813 00:41:42,119 --> 00:41:44,400 all access to two of us for I think it's 814 00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:47,800 forty nine dollars. Price of a five percent play is 815 00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:52,920 thirty five, so it's fourteen dollars less for a five 816 00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,880 percent play, So you probably get two five percent plays 817 00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:57,719 in that in three days with two of us. So 818 00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,400 pick two of us. It's a great deal, I think. 819 00:42:02,079 --> 00:42:07,440 Speaker 2: Now from a from that standpoint, without a doubt, tremendous deal. 820 00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,320 If you're a I can't see why you would just 821 00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,519 buy the five percenter when you can get when just 822 00:42:13,559 --> 00:42:16,280 three days for two people is not that much more. 823 00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:19,440 So that's a really good point TV. I'm I'm gonna 824 00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:21,519 go to a different game for my best bet and 825 00:42:21,559 --> 00:42:24,239 I'll close it out. Mariners money line will be my 826 00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:26,639 parlay lake. I think the Mariners are the best team 827 00:42:26,679 --> 00:42:29,639 in the American League this year. I think it's going 828 00:42:29,679 --> 00:42:34,559 to be very difficult to find value with them. Maybe 829 00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:37,679 on the road is where you'll actually find value with them. 830 00:42:38,679 --> 00:42:41,920 At home, they just get priced up to oblivion. But 831 00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:46,039 last night, you know, they lose their opener. I'm not 832 00:42:46,119 --> 00:42:48,800 saying that like we're getting like some sort of bargain here, 833 00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,280 but for the parlay, like minus one sixty five is 834 00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,840 not is not that that? That's actually kind of where 835 00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,320 I make the number right, There is in that minus 836 00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,280 sixty one one sixty five minus one range. But I'm 837 00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,079 willing to put it in the three teamer because of 838 00:43:03,079 --> 00:43:07,000 course we're gonna get plus money anyway. And second, I 839 00:43:07,159 --> 00:43:09,519 just love the matchup for the Mariners to bounce back. Listen, 840 00:43:09,559 --> 00:43:11,559 the Guardians they win six to four last night, they 841 00:43:11,599 --> 00:43:13,840 have to use some bullpen arms. That bullpen took a 842 00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,199 big step back in my opinion, Like, I don't think 843 00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:18,400 the Guardians are just gonna be able to ride their 844 00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,679 bullpen to win after win. This isn't two years ago, 845 00:43:21,679 --> 00:43:24,760 it's not even last year really, And I just really 846 00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:27,599 questioned where all their offense is coming from now again. 847 00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,400 Nice went on Opening Day for them. But you're giving me, 848 00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,480 George Kirby, You're giving me the Mariners at home. You're 849 00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:34,800 giving me the best team in the American League in 850 00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,480 my opinion, to not start owing two. I like the Mariners. 851 00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:40,840 So that is going to be my parlay leg Mariner's 852 00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:45,280 money line, and that wow where I am shocked that 853 00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,880 we are nailing the timing of this new show. 854 00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,800 Speaker 1: I was certain. I was certain I would go over 855 00:43:52,039 --> 00:43:55,119 and have a slack message from Kelly at some point 856 00:43:55,199 --> 00:43:56,920 early in this season. 857 00:43:57,599 --> 00:43:59,360 Speaker 2: We're right on the dot both shows. We're going to 858 00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,639 finish right at the forty five minute mark. That's perfect 859 00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:05,559 the three team parlay today. I am on Mariners on 860 00:44:05,599 --> 00:44:09,000 the money line, Brian Leonard is on Rockies plus one 861 00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:11,960 and a half minus one thirty five, and then we've 862 00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,760 got Tokyo Brandon Dodgers Diamondbacks over eight and a half. 863 00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:16,559 Speaker 1: Minus one ten. 864 00:44:16,679 --> 00:44:20,400 Speaker 2: The parlay will be based on those odds yesterday's parlay loss, 865 00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,639 so that's just a minus one unit right there. 866 00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:26,360 Speaker 1: Obviously, shop around. I will recap that. 867 00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:29,960 Speaker 2: Tomorrow win or lose, and we'll always come on here 868 00:44:30,199 --> 00:44:33,280 and talk about the day before. We'll usually do it 869 00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:36,119 at the end of the show. Brian and I looking 870 00:44:36,119 --> 00:44:38,639 for a nice bounce back. Tokyo Brandon coming off a 871 00:44:38,639 --> 00:44:41,079 big time five percent win, hopefully he's got another one 872 00:44:41,119 --> 00:44:44,079 in there today, and check out the double play package. 873 00:44:44,079 --> 00:44:48,000 And also one quick programming note before we leave. I 874 00:44:48,079 --> 00:44:50,960 will be starting Under the Radar today. I filmed it 875 00:44:51,079 --> 00:44:54,400 yesterday and kind of saved it incorrectly, so the reason 876 00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:56,800 you did not see that yesterday is because I kind 877 00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:58,800 of messed it up so well. The first Under the 878 00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:01,559 Radar will be today, and that'll be a daily segment. 879 00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:04,360 Check out Brian Leonard and Tokyo Brandon. They're both doing 880 00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:06,760 solo videos, so if we missed a game on here, 881 00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,920 there's a good chance it's there. We will be back 882 00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,440 Monday morning, nine am. Have a great weekend everyone, and 883 00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:14,719 we'll see you guys next week.