Speaker 1: This is the In This League Fantasy Podcast network, In
Speaker 1: This League Fantasy Baseball podcast online at in This League
Speaker 1: dot Com. Now here's your host, Bogman and the Welsh.
Speaker 2: What is a friend Oza. Welcome back to the In
Speaker 2: This League Fantasy Baseball podcast with Bogman and the Welsh.
Speaker 2: We are back in the baseball primers. We are doing
Speaker 2: second base today. Primers to us. We are literally sitting
Speaker 2: here kind of going through the process of you know
Speaker 2: how anybody is going to break down players literally if
Speaker 2: you know, I'm riding for the Fantasy Black Book. I
Speaker 2: go through, look through the savant find different areas that
Speaker 2: are going to jump up of interest. So we might
Speaker 2: stumble upon some interesting things today as we are going
Speaker 2: through the second base position again our primer to this
Speaker 2: whole bad boy and happy to speak to you all.
Speaker 2: Mister Bogman, how do you feel about the Dodgers signing
Speaker 2: another two hundred almost two hundred million dollar player and
Speaker 2: maybe we won't get into a whole disgusting defertive contracts,
Speaker 2: don't pay luxury tax, gaming the system conversation, But how
Speaker 2: about those Dodgers Blake Snell now.
Speaker 3: A Dodger, I mean at least we get to hate him.
Speaker 3: You know, that's I'm back to hating him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, like he was kind of like lovable, Like I
Speaker 2: shared my picture with the with the what was it
Speaker 2: when he was of the Padres and then you know
Speaker 2: the Giants. He really stunk and you know, like there
Speaker 2: were a lot of redeeming factors. Straight hate. We're back
Speaker 2: into that voice that I do with Blake Snell victory.
Speaker 3: Oh, I got to get paid.
Speaker 1: Man.
Speaker 2: Did you see I did a Uh, I did a
Speaker 2: short for Fantasy Pros. We're trying to, you know, do
Speaker 2: more baseball content, and I came up with this idea,
Speaker 2: well not like an idea, but I was like, hey, listen,
Speaker 2: we should do like social shorts for the big signings.
Speaker 2: And then Blake Snell signs last night and then I'm like, okay,
Speaker 2: I'll do it. I'll write it and then i'll do
Speaker 2: it the next day. And I was like, you know what,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna do it tonight and I put the impression
Speaker 2: in and then when I sent it to all the editors,
Speaker 2: I was like, I did a Blake Snell impression. Leave it,
Speaker 2: don't take it out. Leave it in there because they
Speaker 2: don't probably understand it. Yeah, but you're gonna leave my
Speaker 2: impression of Blake snow. So I started off the short
Speaker 2: with a oh man, I got hyted man. Unfortunately that
Speaker 2: was actually due. That was like one of the first
Speaker 2: comments someone posted because I posted the picture of me instill. Yes, no,
Speaker 2: it wasn't. It was some some random person was just
Speaker 2: like they did the hydrated comment all time favorite thing.
Speaker 2: But yeah, no, he's definitely now in the hated range
Speaker 2: because he's a Dodger, and you know, kudos to them
Speaker 2: for just having amazing book makers who know exactly how
Speaker 2: to get people to come to defer state taxes, to
Speaker 2: defer luxury taxes, to keep you know, everything financially set.
Speaker 2: But from the fantasy perspective, it's I. I ended the
Speaker 2: short to say it's the best destination he could go
Speaker 2: for his fantasy value. And he had the tail of
Speaker 2: two seasons where it was like he didn't he wasn't
Speaker 2: in spring training really awful the first part of the year.
Speaker 2: He was dominant one point four or five ERA in
Speaker 2: the second half in his last twelve starts five to zero. Record.
Speaker 2: Dude at a career high strikeout percentage this past year
Speaker 2: thirty four point seven percent K percentage. And now he's
Speaker 2: going to go be a Dodger with run support of Shoho, Tawny,
Speaker 2: Mookie Bets, Freddy Freeman the defensive support. It's crazy. And
Speaker 2: there's a couple decent hitter or pitcher kind of environments.
Speaker 2: You know you're going to be pitching. I mean, he's
Speaker 2: trying to collect all the nls. By the way, he's
Speaker 2: never going to be a Rocky or a Diamondback. Maybe
Speaker 2: he's thirty eight, you know, he's thirty six, he can
Speaker 2: be a Diamondback. When he's thirty nine, he can be
Speaker 2: a Rocky and collect the whole set. But like, you know,
Speaker 2: there's some there's some environments in there that he's going
Speaker 2: to do well. It's just like, what do you say.
Speaker 2: It's an incredible destination for him, and he's gonna rank
Speaker 2: even higher now I think in sp ranks.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's great. Yeah, it's awesome. I love it. Prog
Speaker 3: Uh Yeah, I mean it is a really good spot
Speaker 3: for fantasy. And I mean, are they gonna let him
Speaker 3: throw the ball a little bit more and go deeper
Speaker 3: into games? You'd think now that he signed a long
Speaker 3: term deal, maybe a team would be more willing to
Speaker 3: let him go. Obviously last year he had the whole
Speaker 3: you know, Scott wars thing, not you know, no, not
Speaker 3: signing until after You don't think he's I mean, he
Speaker 3: has been bad when he gets to that point.
Speaker 2: No, But I think they've openly said, like they want
Speaker 2: to do a six man rotation this year. If you're
Speaker 2: going to do a six man rotation, get Blake Snell.
Speaker 2: They let it.
Speaker 3: He would. If he's gonna do a six man rotation,
Speaker 3: it should allow you to let those starters go a
Speaker 3: little bit longer because they get the extra day.
Speaker 2: But he did. But see, like, okay, so you're saying
Speaker 2: per game, not on the season, because that's where like.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah's all on the season, and I.
Speaker 2: Just per game he did. July eighth, he had the
Speaker 2: no hitter. He went not so well.
Speaker 3: That was his first time pitching into the ninth inning ever.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to the ninth But check this out. Here are
Speaker 2: his games pass. How many games he had past the
Speaker 2: six inning this year? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten,
Speaker 2: eleven of six or higher. That's amazing for Blake Snell.
Speaker 2: And past the sixth inning he had I think it's
Speaker 2: four in the seventh and one in the ninth. So
Speaker 2: I mean, like he finally pushed that boundary of going
Speaker 2: deeper into games, and all of that he had twenty starts,
Speaker 2: only went like one hundred innings. They're gonna do like
Speaker 2: a six man type of rotation. They're gonna probably let
Speaker 2: him go seven and he's still gonna chalk up like
Speaker 2: maybe one hundred and eighty innings. I think this is
Speaker 2: the perfect I mean, the only bad thing but he
Speaker 2: doesn't do it anyways, would be that he's not They're
Speaker 2: not gonna probably allow him on a six manter rotation
Speaker 2: if they do fully commit to that to going like
Speaker 2: two hundred plus innings. But he doesn't do that anyways.
Speaker 2: Like you get one hundred and seventy five innings out
Speaker 2: of Blake Snell, you're jumping for joy with that run
Speaker 2: support and because right now it's him, you have a
Speaker 2: Moto Glass now Otani and then you they're probably gonna
Speaker 2: sign Kershaw back, and then you've also got May, maybe Sasaki.
Speaker 2: You've got May, and then you've got Tony Gonsolin. So
Speaker 2: like between that, they're gonna run six out every single week.
Speaker 2: I don't know, dude, Like they might piggyback o Tawny
Speaker 2: with let's say, like Dustin May and then you've got
Speaker 2: Kershaw and Gonsolin, Like I think Snell will be one
Speaker 2: of the few guys on that team that goes deep
Speaker 2: into the physical game but just doesn't get like, you know,
Speaker 2: he's gonna have a few less starts than other guys, and.
Speaker 3: Who cares if he needs to skip a start or
Speaker 3: whatever because they have so many guys. I the one
Speaker 3: good thing that I think is coming from this is
Speaker 3: this not just the nl wes that hates the Dodgers now.
Speaker 3: Now it's everybody. Now it's the Dodgers versus the world.
Speaker 3: So that is kind of that's kind of making me
Speaker 3: a little bit happier. Here.
Speaker 2: Definitely is a little bit of contingency online though, of
Speaker 2: people that are like, what is itybody really just hate
Speaker 2: the Dodgers And it's just like, shut up, dude, just
Speaker 2: everybody hate the Dodge unless your Dodger fan. Zip it.
Speaker 2: Like I don't want to hear your excuses about blah
Speaker 2: blah blah, Like it's dumb, it's stupid, And there is
Speaker 2: a megor Bob behind the whole thing, Like you and
Speaker 2: I had this big thing behind before the show of
Speaker 2: you know, it's not just deferred money, it's gaming the
Speaker 2: luxury tax and uh, you know the California tax thing.
Speaker 2: They're like, yeah, well defer all your money until you
Speaker 2: move out of state, so.
Speaker 3: Your tax out of Well, I think the bottom line
Speaker 3: there is it's just not good for parody in the game,
Speaker 3: you know. And look, MLB doesn't want parody. They want
Speaker 3: the teams in New York, in Chicago and LA to
Speaker 3: win a.
Speaker 2: Million dollars and then they want Miami to spend thirty
Speaker 2: million dollars in their day.
Speaker 3: They don't want the d Backs and the Rockies and
Speaker 3: the Marlins in the Rays in the playoffs. Those they're
Speaker 3: small markets. They want the big markets in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: So well, I get it, but it is, uh, you know,
Speaker 3: it's aggravating to the rest of the fan base that
Speaker 3: isn't Dodger fans.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, Diamondbacks don't belong that conversation anymore
Speaker 2: because they are a top twenty market and they're spending
Speaker 2: almost two hundred million dollars on there.
Speaker 3: The top twenty market, there's thirty teams, so you know,
Speaker 3: I mean, uh, it's yeah, they're mid payroll.
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, we can argue about it, like I'm
Speaker 2: just saying, like they're not like the Rockies, but to
Speaker 2: your point, like they were, they've been seen as a
Speaker 2: small market team. They're not because they they spend a boatload,
Speaker 2: but they're still not spending what the Dodgers and the
Speaker 2: Red Sox and the Yankees and stuff are doing. And
Speaker 2: that's due to more than ever, it's not due to
Speaker 2: baseball rules. It's due to the person that owns the
Speaker 2: team like that, like Steve Cohen will just go out
Speaker 2: and spend every dollar because he's twenty billion dollars and
Speaker 2: it's like, that's not good for the game when the
Speaker 2: owner outside of it is the breaker, not like some
Speaker 2: type of cap. And again, it just doesn't matter. But
Speaker 2: it kind of all jumped out with Blake Snell signing
Speaker 2: because it's a super team. The Dodgers are a super team.
Speaker 2: But for fantasy, it's gonna be very interesting talking about
Speaker 2: him in the sp ranks because you know, if you
Speaker 2: if you were comfortable with what the bad of the
Speaker 2: beginning of the year was, where it's like he didn't
Speaker 2: get to play spring training and he struggled, and you
Speaker 2: can like cross that out of your eye and you
Speaker 2: only see what he was when he was good to go.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's going to be a top five sp
Speaker 2: and Fantasy Baseball. But like, if he gets back into
Speaker 2: his bad ways, or maybe he really is just going
Speaker 2: to be tail of two sides, you know, then maybe
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a little bit overblown while also only
Speaker 2: pitching like once a week. But hey, man, first domino
Speaker 2: has dropped as we are recording this. Many more Dominoes
Speaker 2: seem to be on the way with big trades and whatever.
Speaker 2: And yeah, lava cakes.
Speaker 3: What's the reference Dominoes? You just said Dominoes. What is
Speaker 3: Domino's pizza?
Speaker 2: Oh, Domino's pizza. I was like, what does the game
Speaker 2: of Dominoes have to do with it? You're saying Dominoes.
Speaker 3: I'm not Yeah, you're also not a puzzle guy either.
Speaker 3: You're not putting these pieces together at all. Not man. Sorry,
Speaker 3: that was like, I don't know, I'm a skinny guy now,
Speaker 3: I don't know about domino.
Speaker 2: I've never had a Domino's lava cake. I know you
Speaker 2: you know the inner workings of the pizza industry, but
Speaker 2: I don't know what a lava cake?
Speaker 3: What is a lava cake is just it's just a
Speaker 3: cake with fudge, yeah, with lava in the middle of right,
Speaker 3: everyone lives in their mouth. It's actually called the hot Pocket.
Speaker 2: Let's send it to Blake Snell. Then, oh man, this
Speaker 2: is hot.
Speaker 3: It's really hot. Man's actual lava gonna cost me my
Speaker 3: whole contract to fix my mouth now, man, oh man.
Speaker 2: Dude drives it like a Bugatti too. By the way,
Speaker 2: his car is so ridiculous. Is it bake so it's
Speaker 2: like a Bugatti or it's it's some it's some insane
Speaker 2: looking car, like a lot of guys just drive like
Speaker 2: nice expensive cars. His is this like like it's like
Speaker 2: I don't even know how to describe it, like gray
Speaker 2: with like lights under it, Like it's very Paul wall esque.
Speaker 2: But you know that's that's blaky. That's Nelly for you.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into it. It is second base primer. Again.
Speaker 2: These are not ranks, though we will be going off
Speaker 2: of n FBC, just just like in how they're being
Speaker 2: drafted in kind of the order that we're going to
Speaker 2: talk about them. And it's also you know, good for
Speaker 2: you guys to understand the early reference of where these
Speaker 2: guys are going. But this isn't based on are necessarily
Speaker 2: built around us talking about like this is who we
Speaker 2: are going to hundred percent have and these are the ranks. No,
Speaker 2: we're going to be going through this where this is
Speaker 2: part of the process. We are going to be telling
Speaker 2: you positionally about what we're finding on the guys. We'll
Speaker 2: have some fun with it, and we will do it
Speaker 2: right after this. I swear to God, I'll pistol whip
Speaker 2: the next guy that says.
Speaker 1: In this league, Hey, Barva, what's the name of that
Speaker 1: restaurant you like? Of all the Mazirella stif me in
Speaker 1: this league?
Speaker 2: All right, second base again, n FBC will be kind
Speaker 2: of the gauge of where we're going to talk about
Speaker 2: these guys. And it is very nice to say, you know,
Speaker 2: there's some guys that are going to kind of be
Speaker 2: leaving the position as well. I feel like it's been
Speaker 2: a little bit bear with me girth here, if you will.
Speaker 2: From a positional standpoint, it's funny. It doesn't have to
Speaker 2: mean that. I'm just saying it was, you know, it
Speaker 2: was built a little bit stronger.
Speaker 3: Very moist. Position is very vainy.
Speaker 2: Though I will say that this is probably been a
Speaker 2: very long standing like every time we're like ooh hard standing. No, No,
Speaker 2: it's not like we're always kind of doing this where
Speaker 2: it's like, oh, yeah, you know, second base isn't great.
Speaker 2: Already saw the discourse going on in the spay, Oh
Speaker 2: second base is bad. And then you get like the
Speaker 2: deep league NFC guys that are like, well it's a matter,
Speaker 2: and it's like, okay, dude, well you're drafting fifty rounds.
Speaker 2: But from a starting perspective you could probably get away with.
Speaker 2: There's fifteen there's fifteen second base starters that you're not
Speaker 2: going to like be sick to your stomach about. But
Speaker 2: there's some of these guys are going to qualify at
Speaker 2: other positions, and I think the position can get away
Speaker 2: from you.
Speaker 3: So that's like the everybody needs an MI too, So yeah, exactly,
Speaker 3: and it.
Speaker 2: Might not come from short stuff, but getting to it,
Speaker 2: the first second baseman and the only inside the top fifty,
Speaker 2: there's only one second basement inside the top fifty. The
Speaker 2: good exciting thing we get to tell you it is
Speaker 2: Catell Martea with MVP votes last season, thirty six homers,
Speaker 2: a two ninety two batting average. He hits or he
Speaker 2: had seven stolen bases, which is not too shabby. Ninety
Speaker 2: three runs, ninety five RBI. He was so close to
Speaker 2: just putting up that one hundred one hundred with it
Speaker 2: an absolutely I know the term I want to say,
Speaker 2: it's when Bagman says, but it's not appropriate for the show.
Speaker 2: Red is the ansels. You know what I'm saying. Yeah,
Speaker 2: it is a very beautiful red savant page. And what
Speaker 2: that means our high percentiles across the board. He is
Speaker 2: top four percentile at least summer higher in expected wOBA
Speaker 2: at three ninety two. Expected batting average of two ninety four,
Speaker 2: which by the way, is higher than his batting average
Speaker 2: expected slug of five thirty eight. This is the league,
Speaker 2: by the way, expected slug top four percentile of the league.
Speaker 2: Average ex velocity ninety four, hard hit percentage fifty three
Speaker 2: point eight, dramatically higher than he has ever done before.
Speaker 2: And that kind of correlates as well, because he's always
Speaker 2: been a dude that hits the ball hard. You and
Speaker 2: I have been talking about it for eight years. We're like,
Speaker 2: dude always is going to put up a one to fifteen.
Speaker 2: But what has happened gradually over time? He has learned
Speaker 2: to tap into that more consistently, and it happened this year.
Speaker 2: Ninety four average average X velocity one seventeen max, but
Speaker 2: the barrel percentage jumped up to twelve percent to go
Speaker 2: with that hard hit rate. It's it's easy to say,
Speaker 2: Katell Mark Da Ka Tell Marte has done this before.
Speaker 2: That's the other thing I want to throw out, Like
Speaker 2: everyone's like, oh, the thirty two home run season. These
Speaker 2: were career highs. This was a career high in RBI,
Speaker 2: career high in homers, not a career high in runs,
Speaker 2: and not a heid soul and basis. But you know,
Speaker 2: like way up their highest batting average or second highest
Speaker 2: bating average has had in the last five years. It's
Speaker 2: a lot of me talking here just to say that,
Speaker 2: like listen, he clicked in in a completely different way
Speaker 2: in a weird diamondback season where lots of I struggled.
Speaker 2: He was as dominant as you can be and made
Speaker 2: these jumps that maybe will end up being like was
Speaker 2: this an anomaly? But they are also jumps that make
Speaker 2: him an elite player. And he's the only second baseman
Speaker 2: from NFBC that is going inside the top fifty, right
Speaker 2: outside the top thirty bugs.
Speaker 3: It's because last year I jumped off the train. It's like,
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna get hurt again. He does it
Speaker 3: every other year. And look, this is all missing twenty
Speaker 3: six games. He played one hundred and thirty six games,
Speaker 3: so he missed a big grip of games here, and
Speaker 3: he still put up these really good numbers, and the
Speaker 3: expected stats are right in line, not sinking a lot
Speaker 3: in batting average or slugging or x well. But you know,
Speaker 3: everything seems like this. These are just the numbers that
Speaker 3: he's gonna put up when he's healthy. So a great
Speaker 3: year for KTL. And I mean he faded a little
Speaker 3: bit down the stretch. That's when he had his injuries, right,
Speaker 3: was kind of closer to the end of the season,
Speaker 3: but he came back strong. So yeah, I mean he
Speaker 3: is the only one in the top fifty for a reason.
Speaker 3: It's because these numbers are really ridiculous.
Speaker 2: I mean, you want a ridiculous number two he hit.
Speaker 2: I mean you say he faded in the second half,
Speaker 2: maybe towards the end, because he just got hurt in yeah,
Speaker 2: he didn't the bat yeah that yeah, Because that's why
Speaker 2: I want to clarify because he hit two ninety two
Speaker 2: in the first half, he hit two ninety in the
Speaker 2: second half. But listen to this, three hundred and fifty
Speaker 2: nine at bats in the first half, he hit nineteen homers.
Speaker 2: That's phenomenal, by the way, in one hundred and forty
Speaker 2: five at bats in the second half, seventeen homers. He
Speaker 2: hit two less homers in two hundred less at bats.
Speaker 3: Point raising in the second half. Yeah, so you know
Speaker 3: they're like, his homer to fly ball rate was twenty
Speaker 3: five point seven. Well, it's his career is thirteen percent,
Speaker 3: So maybe there's a little something there. But maybe that's
Speaker 3: just he's you know, hitting the ball better and putting
Speaker 3: it out more.
Speaker 2: Babbop numbers are right in line. There's no like overtly
Speaker 2: high Babbitt numbers. Here's the thing that stands out kind
Speaker 2: of tracking. If you listen to the first base series.
Speaker 2: And I don't know what to make of this, because
Speaker 2: I'm going to go in and be like, hey, listen,
Speaker 2: he hit the ball harder. That's great, better I making
Speaker 2: better decisions equated to him barreling the ball. Like, I
Speaker 2: don't know if there's something he like physically did in
Speaker 2: his game outside of standing. Yeah, yeah, well let me
Speaker 2: fin like when you like, I don't know if he
Speaker 2: did anything like you know, you go to drive line
Speaker 2: or whatever that changed how he was barreling outside of
Speaker 2: making better decisions against pitchers and not like he had
Speaker 2: an eighteen percent k rate. So like what I'm getting
Speaker 2: at is he barreled the ball more. So I'm not
Speaker 2: surprised because of high barrel rates that he tapped into
Speaker 2: big hard hit numbers and that might be like the
Speaker 2: big key for him to be this elite players, He's
Speaker 2: got to get to barrels. So getting to focusing on
Speaker 2: barrels for a second, when you go to the pitch types,
Speaker 2: he hit three thirty six against fastballs. He hit two
Speaker 2: ninety six the prior year, So that's an uptick. Check
Speaker 2: this out. Ninety one point three average exit velocity the
Speaker 2: year prior against fastballs ninety five point one. That's a
Speaker 2: four mile an hour increase. So he was barreling fastballs.
Speaker 2: How else do you learn this? In twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: he hit specifically against four seams, he hit two ninety
Speaker 2: with a two eighty three expected batting average, a run
Speaker 2: value of six. That's like, you know, it's like, fine,
Speaker 2: that's nothing crazy. The run value specifically this year, he
Speaker 2: hit three fifty four against four seam fastballs, but had
Speaker 2: a three twenty six expected batting average, which is amazing,
Speaker 2: and his run value twenty one. That might be one
Speaker 2: of the highest run values on a pitch type ever.
Speaker 2: So what I'm getting at here is like, dude overperformed
Speaker 2: against fastballs and had this crazy second half. Could he
Speaker 2: see less fastballs next year? That's a possibility. He doesn't
Speaker 2: really struggle against him. And by the way, he hit
Speaker 2: almost before exit velocity against breaking pitches and sliders, he
Speaker 2: hit two seventy nine. So like, if I'm trying to
Speaker 2: pick a knit here, it feels hard that he's going
Speaker 2: to be able to like completely repeat this, but I'm
Speaker 2: just not seeing any ground ball rate was a tiny
Speaker 2: bit up, but he pulled the ball more. Okay, he
Speaker 2: knew with a high barrel rate zone contact.
Speaker 3: Less selective this year because he had the highest swing
Speaker 3: percentage of his career ever forty eight point one percent,
Speaker 3: but his lowest contact percentage. So it seems like he's
Speaker 3: just not waiting around as much. He's trusting what he sees,
Speaker 3: and he's taken more hacks, So that was a big
Speaker 3: part of it as well.
Speaker 2: I think yeah, And so like what does that equate to,
Speaker 2: because like the worst thing that you can do is
Speaker 2: pay for the player's performance last year. That maybe doesn't
Speaker 2: have a baseline. I kind of think Katzel does have
Speaker 2: a relative baseline for what I think is semi positive
Speaker 2: as projections are lower, which I think is right, like
Speaker 2: to project him to be thirty five homers again, no,
Speaker 2: they got twenty seven homers, about the same stolen bases,
Speaker 2: batting average is roughly it's good. It's almost too eighty
Speaker 2: and really good counting stats across as it should be.
Speaker 2: I like what I see, and you know, in trying
Speaker 2: to pick the knits here, like I said, of finding
Speaker 2: something that you might not like, there just really isn't
Speaker 2: Like as long as he gets to barrels, he's gonna
Speaker 2: smash baseballs. And he overperformed it looks like against fastballs.
Speaker 2: So if that downtick, but he's just a good hitter.
Speaker 2: So like all the baseline from a primer perspective, a
Speaker 2: ka tell Marte is like he's worth investing. I'm kind
Speaker 2: of surprised his ADP is twenty eight. If I'm being
Speaker 2: honest with you here, it's probably an NFBC because he
Speaker 2: doesn't steal elite bases that he doesn't go higher. But
Speaker 2: from a second to third round pick at a position
Speaker 2: that does have some falloffs, maybe there's some Maybe we're
Speaker 2: going to get to some guys that are better values
Speaker 2: at the end of the day. I mean we haven't
Speaker 2: looked at them yet, but you know, Simeon is going
Speaker 2: off super low, and if he had a bounce back
Speaker 2: like that would.
Speaker 3: Be there's sure going to be better values because he's first.
Speaker 2: Right now, we're in the top one one hundred of
Speaker 2: second base, so like anyone could be a better value.
Speaker 2: But like from a safety net standpoint, oh, no Homer
Speaker 2: could tell it's kind of the dude, this is what
Speaker 2: we always were hoping for. So I don't know if
Speaker 2: you have anything else on Cautel. From a primer.
Speaker 3: Perspective, I just like that you invented no Homer, So,
Speaker 3: oh my, we'll love the d Backs. Can tell Marte,
Speaker 3: no Homer, we just love him. His production is great.
Speaker 2: So I very carefully said that, so that that is
Speaker 2: how we talk about the Diamondbacks, all right, So could
Speaker 2: tell Marte in the books he is kind of your
Speaker 2: own tier. Move off to number two, who is outside
Speaker 2: the top fifty. His ADP is actually fifty one. On
Speaker 2: the next two guys are kind of really close together.
Speaker 2: It's Ozzie Albi's where you know Ozzi just he does
Speaker 2: miss some games. I guess in twenty twenty three we
Speaker 2: did get the full season thirty three Homer's, thirteen stolen bases,
Speaker 2: he hit two to eighty, and then this year, you know,
Speaker 2: we kind of paid up for that, and then he
Speaker 2: got hurt. He had just under four hundred bats, ten homers,
Speaker 2: eight stolen bases, with a two fifty one batting average.
Speaker 2: The Savant page all almost except him not striking out.
Speaker 2: Everything was below average. He dropped two percent and his
Speaker 2: barrel percentage down to six not good. Hard hit percentage
Speaker 2: fell seven percent, also not good. His expected his overall
Speaker 2: batting average obviously dropped thirty points. His expected dropped twenty
Speaker 2: points from that prior year, which was really good, and
Speaker 2: it looked more reminiscent to twenty twenty two. So I'll
Speaker 2: stop there for a moment. In kind of the early assessment,
Speaker 2: it was a massively down year. Production just was not there.
Speaker 2: But I don't know, if you chalk you know how
Speaker 2: much you want to chalk up the injuries. He just
Speaker 2: he didn't barrel, he downticked his hard hit. He didn't
Speaker 2: strike out as much, which is really good. But what
Speaker 2: say you on Ozzie Alvi's.
Speaker 3: Yeah, A lot of that was the second half. He
Speaker 3: was pretty miserable in the second half after he came
Speaker 3: back from the injury. Maybe he came back too quick,
Speaker 3: I don't know, but he only hit two hundred in
Speaker 3: the second half. He only played twelve games in the
Speaker 3: second half as well, so maybe just came back a
Speaker 3: little bit too quick. But he's never really been good
Speaker 3: against you, or I should say he's been much better
Speaker 3: against lefties in his career than Riotyes, I think he
Speaker 3: has a two forty seven average in his career against righties.
Speaker 3: So most pictures are righties. So the batting average is
Speaker 3: probably never going to be impressive. But we know what
Speaker 3: Ozzy is when he's out there and working well. It's just,
Speaker 3: you know, how much do we need to shade the
Speaker 3: injury that he had in the second half not being
Speaker 3: very productive? Do we see enough? Is this more of
Speaker 3: a hey, look, I don't really care. He's had enough
Speaker 3: time to you know, recover, and I think he's going
Speaker 3: to be back to the normal Ozzie he is coming
Speaker 3: in or is to say, I kind of want to
Speaker 3: see him in spring training. Do you have like a
Speaker 3: an initial thought in terms of that.
Speaker 2: I mean, I haven't really even gotten into that. I mean, again,
Speaker 2: this is the primary, this is the trick. Yeah, like yeah, sure,
Speaker 2: Like I think Ozzie's one of It's kind of like
Speaker 2: could tell he's one of those dudes that's had these
Speaker 2: big ups and these big downs, So it's hard to gauge,
Speaker 2: like looking through here, just to give a couple other pieces,
Speaker 2: worst year against righty's in his career he hit two
Speaker 2: twenty five. He had never hit rightys worse than he
Speaker 2: and now he's had some bad years. By the way,
Speaker 2: again of hitting righty's. Uh, a switch hitter dramatically better
Speaker 2: against lefties. But this was the first year he ever
Speaker 2: hit under two thirty against right handed hitters. And that's uh,
Speaker 2: looks like that's where the predominant power is hit.
Speaker 3: Fig he have more power. He hits six homers.
Speaker 2: Okay, well check that, yeah, no, but his power comes
Speaker 2: from the righties because look at this in twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: he hit twoint fifty against righty's. Twenty eight of his
Speaker 2: thirty three homers came against right handed hitters. So his power,
Speaker 2: I'm just going through it. Yoh yeah, just not even
Speaker 2: it comes from the right handed side. So if he's
Speaker 2: struggling to hit right handed hitters, every single year of
Speaker 2: his career he has been a predominant power hitter, I
Speaker 2: guess that would be from the left side hitting against
Speaker 2: righties as a switch hitter, So if he's struggling there,
Speaker 2: the power is going to be depleted. Also, just throwing
Speaker 2: this in, this could be maybe a portion of this
Speaker 2: is he saw an uptick in sinkers. So sinkers became
Speaker 2: the second highest pitch usage against him this season and
Speaker 2: he hit only two thirty nine against them, where he
Speaker 2: hit three p thirty eight the previous year. He hit
Speaker 2: him harder, but sinker what a sinkers do? They can
Speaker 2: get into the ground more. And then I come over
Speaker 2: to here, did his ground ball rate go up? Yep,
Speaker 2: about a percent and a half. He wasn't able to
Speaker 2: pull the ball quite as much. And then the only
Speaker 2: other thing to add in was I'm looking at the
Speaker 2: usages here. Yeah, I mean it was like the sinker.
Speaker 2: The sinker went up a percent and a half, change
Speaker 2: ups went down. These are pitched again him. Change ups
Speaker 2: went down, and slider usage also went down. That's a
Speaker 2: weird one when sliders go down. But maybe it was
Speaker 2: like you know, sinker usage. When he's from the left
Speaker 2: hand side, he's hitting you know, ground balls a little
Speaker 2: bit more. Because dude didn't barrel, he didn't hit well.
Speaker 2: His expected batting average was just really bad. I leave
Speaker 2: it to be like, I don't know what you take
Speaker 2: from that. Like that, that seems like, oh, people found
Speaker 2: a way that they want to attack him, and he
Speaker 2: kind of fell apart. I'd love it if we had
Speaker 2: bat speed numbers too, because he's actually got a really
Speaker 2: slow bat speed sixty nine point seven with oh, actually
Speaker 2: we do have oh you know that's from left and
Speaker 2: right handed side. Also look at this right so wait,
Speaker 2: when he's batting lefty, that's against righty's Check this out, dude,
Speaker 2: His swing gets longer seven point three swing length against
Speaker 2: lefties or as a lefty six point nine as a righty.
Speaker 2: So his swing gets longer.
Speaker 3: Probably just gets pitched differently. He gets pitched to the
Speaker 3: outside more. One way and gets pitched to the inside
Speaker 3: more the other way. That's probably what it is.
Speaker 2: I'm just saying I think that's interesting because where his
Speaker 2: power comes from, it gets longer, and it's a tad
Speaker 2: bit slower. The bat speed is close, it's well below average.
Speaker 2: They're relatively close, but that would say that's a relatively
Speaker 2: more dramatic line. Also, his blast contact percentage four point
Speaker 2: six percent as a lefty, fifteen point nine as a righty,
Speaker 2: and his overall squared up contact percentage nine percent lower
Speaker 2: as a lefty. So again, what I'm getting at is
Speaker 2: like where he makes the prominent power side really struggle
Speaker 2: this year, and he's got to make up the batting
Speaker 2: average from the other side, and that swing's getting long again.
Speaker 2: I mean, I wish I had correct answers here. I
Speaker 2: feel like those are things I don't love.
Speaker 3: I don't like.
Speaker 2: Those are things that don't I'm not like, oh, hey,
Speaker 2: you know, he's gonna pull this back around, Like he
Speaker 2: does have a history. Just the year prior he was
Speaker 2: really good. But I just don't know how how great
Speaker 2: I feel about some of these things. Like maybe they're
Speaker 2: learning how to pitch to him, so.
Speaker 3: He's going around the other players are like James Wood.
Speaker 3: Would you feel comfortable taking Ozzie over James Wood?
Speaker 2: No, I'd rather have James Wood.
Speaker 3: I think man a lot of pitchers. It's like Williams
Speaker 3: Hater Crochet d as young Man.
Speaker 2: I think he's in a tough spot. I think he's
Speaker 2: in a tough spot. Shoreber or Ozzie m I don't know.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Uh and then Al two base behind him. Well
Speaker 3: let's just go there. Yeah, because he's the next guy. Anyway,
Speaker 3: would you rather have Jose al Tube or would you
Speaker 3: rather have Ozzie Alvis?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, let's do the breakdown before I even
Speaker 2: start to say that again, I haven't I haven't even
Speaker 2: gone through my second basement. So al tuve last year
Speaker 2: two ninety five, twenty homers, twenty stolen bases. It was
Speaker 2: three straight years of hitting at least two ninety five
Speaker 2: or higher. But funny enough, he's just gonna be. He's
Speaker 2: just one of these guys. Expect a batting average dramatically
Speaker 2: lower every single year. So in twenty twenty he hit
Speaker 2: three hundred XBA to twenty. I'm sorry, twenty twenty two,
Speaker 2: three hundred expected batting average thirty points lower, two sixty nine.
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty three hit three to eleven expected batting average
Speaker 2: two forty five. This past year he hit two ninety five.
Speaker 2: Expected was two sixty two. So it is like always
Speaker 2: dramatically lower, so we can't really pick that apart. He dropped,
Speaker 2: his barrel percentage went down, but he got the ball
Speaker 2: in the air more again, which is really nice. He
Speaker 2: this looks like the second lowest walk percentage of his career,
Speaker 2: so that kind of dipped down a little bit, and
Speaker 2: he didn't really pop off in any other statistical like
Speaker 2: Baseball Savante, you know, type of percentile. But he was
Speaker 2: a twenty twenty guy. He stole at a much higher clip.
Speaker 2: I mean, the twenty two stolen bases were the highest
Speaker 2: since two thousand and seventeen. He had not gone over twenty,
Speaker 2: so he kind of made up for it in that standpoint.
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, like maybe like al two Vay's
Speaker 2: getting older. I don't want to be on the too
Speaker 2: wrong side of it, you know, because it's like a
Speaker 2: lot of these things look the same, like for sure, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: Like his average X velocity's the same, maxiv's about the same.
Speaker 2: He stopped barreling as much, but he got the ball
Speaker 2: in the air. That to me, I'm like, okay, that's
Speaker 2: like a compensation type of thing. He hit two eighty
Speaker 2: or higher against the three major pitch types, which I
Speaker 2: really loved to see, and he just kind of got
Speaker 2: it in the air a little bit more. I don't know,
Speaker 2: he's just so old, but I think like I would
Speaker 2: probably rather Altuve at this point than than Ozzie. And
Speaker 2: that might be reading too much into just some of
Speaker 2: like the standard like primary.
Speaker 3: I'm the same, I'm the same. I think I'd rather
Speaker 3: have al two bay, although I do like the thing
Speaker 3: I worry about this season is the power. Right, his
Speaker 3: homer to fly ball rate was twelve percent, which is
Speaker 3: his lowest sense twenty nineteen, twenty twenty actually, and then
Speaker 3: before that, I guess twenty eighteen. But yeah, I mean
Speaker 3: it's it's still above his average in his career. But
Speaker 3: he did play one hundred and fifty three games this
Speaker 3: year and only at twenty bombs. But I love the
Speaker 3: twenty two stolen bases that got a new manager a spot.
Speaker 3: I just ran more UH for the Astros this year,
Speaker 3: and he was on the healthy end of that, so
Speaker 3: being close to a twenty twenty, guy, you know, getting
Speaker 3: those games back, which kind of we were starting to
Speaker 3: question because he was getting older and he had, you know,
Speaker 3: he broke his hand in the World Baseball Classic the
Speaker 3: year before. But yeah, playing one hundred and fifty three
Speaker 3: was impressive. Putting up these stolen bases again was impressive.
Speaker 3: And doing it all with a decent batting average of
Speaker 3: two ninety five still three hundred and three eleven two
Speaker 3: ninety five, and his steamer projections are not very favorable
Speaker 3: to that batting average two sixty eight. His expected stats.
Speaker 3: Let me just take a look. His batting average was
Speaker 3: two ninety five. He is the lowest qualified second basement
Speaker 3: in terms of the batting average was projected and expected
Speaker 3: at two sixty two, and he hit two ninety five,
Speaker 3: So a thirty three point dip a lot. Yeah, well,
Speaker 3: I guess I was looking at something else when you
Speaker 3: were talking about Oh.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was going I was going through the OK.
Speaker 2: But that's kind of the thing where I'm saying, like,
Speaker 2: I'm actually not surprised that the projections are low like that,
Speaker 2: because projections are going to read off of like hard
Speaker 2: to hit barrel and expected numbers and the expected numbers
Speaker 2: are lower. It's funny though, because if you go a
Speaker 2: three year average, buddy boys hit two ninety five or
Speaker 2: higher for three straight years, so like to be under
Speaker 2: So it's reading off of expected, but he overperforms his expected.
Speaker 2: Another thing I see in here, you know that might
Speaker 2: maybe breed a little bit of confidence when you're talking
Speaker 2: about power. So he hit let me open this up here, Okay,
Speaker 2: so this is interesting when I open it up a
Speaker 2: little bit more, because I wasn't say last in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three, he hit thirteen homers against fastballs. He did
Speaker 2: the same thing this year. What was different and positive
Speaker 2: was he he had a better hard hit percentage against
Speaker 2: four seams and sinkers than the previous year forty one
Speaker 2: percent to thirty nine and twenty nine percent to twenty percent.
Speaker 2: So you actually hit the ball harder against fastballs, which
Speaker 2: is his primary fastball place. But when you expand in
Speaker 2: the pitch types, he had hit twenty or more homers
Speaker 2: against fastballs three straight years prior. So that's where he
Speaker 2: makes his money, is off of because some guys will
Speaker 2: have an even distribution. Because I don't want people to
Speaker 2: be like, oh no, it's like no, that some guys
Speaker 2: will like more evenly distribute some of that, like Altuve
Speaker 2: does it off of fastballs. Why I'm encouraged is he
Speaker 2: had the career high pole percentage, he lowered his ground
Speaker 2: ball percentage, and he hit fastball types harder. I think
Speaker 2: the age works against him, but I just wouldn't be
Speaker 2: shocked if he pulls together another twenty. So I think
Speaker 2: you have to have reasonable expectations. Twenty twenty, twenty fifteen
Speaker 2: is probably a little bit. What are his projections right now?
Speaker 2: What are like the counting stats, not the average? You're muted?
Speaker 3: Sorry I was coughing. I went away from it, so
Speaker 3: let me pull it back up here.
Speaker 2: Oh okay, because because I'm curious, I would guess, like,
Speaker 2: in my brain, I'm gonna I'm not looking at it,
Speaker 2: twenty one homers and fourteen stolen bases.
Speaker 3: What I'm gonna guess twenty one and nineteen. Oh kay,
Speaker 3: so that's twenty two and nineteen excuse me? On Steamer
Speaker 3: to sixty eight average.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I don't care about the average on it.
Speaker 2: I care about the counting stats. That's interesting if you've
Speaker 2: ben come, because I think he every single year overperforms
Speaker 2: his projected expected stuff.
Speaker 3: They were missing Tucker for a huge grip of games
Speaker 3: last year in this lineup, so getting him back will help,
Speaker 3: you know, boost everything.
Speaker 2: I feel like, yeah, because his RBI numbers are actually
Speaker 2: RBI numbers. I even shocked at this in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: two when he hit twenty eight homers. He had more
Speaker 2: RBI this year than that year and he I mean
Speaker 2: he played like twelve more games, but he still had
Speaker 2: more RBI.
Speaker 3: He only wasting lead off that year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he had fifty seven RBIs of those twenty eight homers,
Speaker 2: just more opportunities runs were ninety four was still pretty good.
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, Like I kind of come back
Speaker 2: to that. I feel like I saw more warning signs
Speaker 2: out in Albi's though. It's a powerful lineup, but they've
Speaker 2: had a pass of moving him around, and like, I
Speaker 2: don't know, yeah, yeah, I mean, become an only left
Speaker 2: handed hitter, Albi's please and focus on hitting the ball
Speaker 2: better from an average standpoint, because that's where your power is.
Speaker 2: I think that messes with him. I kind of think
Speaker 2: there's a baseline of two eighty twenty fifteen for Altuve
Speaker 2: with ninety plus runs. If I have to spend it
Speaker 2: in the fifties pick. I think it's gonna I think
Speaker 2: it's gonna be l tub.
Speaker 3: But I guess my question is do you think you're
Speaker 3: going to right, because no, I don't think I'll do
Speaker 3: it with you. Yeah, I don't think either. I think
Speaker 3: Marte is the only one, and he might cost a
Speaker 3: little too much in that area as well. So I
Speaker 3: don't know if this is the group of second Basement
Speaker 3: I want to be picking from and they are the best,
Speaker 3: but you know second base is not very good, So
Speaker 3: I don't know. Do you feel after going over the
Speaker 3: top three do you feel more or less encouraged about
Speaker 3: second Base?
Speaker 2: I mean, right now I feel I think I feel fine,
Speaker 2: but it'll start to be grosser. And that's why, Like
Speaker 2: I think, once you get through the other names, that's
Speaker 2: gonna help determine, like a little bit more like Katel
Speaker 2: is the one. If you were like, you got to
Speaker 2: spend pick thirty, Katel fifty or Albi's fifty seven for Altuve,
Speaker 2: what are you doing, I'd be like, I'm doing it
Speaker 2: for Catel. I'm doing it for Copel a hundred percent,
Speaker 2: because you know, the oldest here is Altuve. Like I said,
Speaker 2: the only thing I feel good about is regardless of
Speaker 2: him getting older. It kind of seemed like three years
Speaker 2: ago that age decline happened, and now this is the
Speaker 2: new Altuve and there's nothing that's really changed year over
Speaker 2: year for me to be like, I don't think. I
Speaker 2: think he could repeat and he could have a nice
Speaker 2: high average and maybe he even hits a few more
Speaker 2: homers this coming year. That's a possibility. You just worry
Speaker 2: that stops running, but the team seems to want him
Speaker 2: to run a little bit. So let's go into the
Speaker 2: next year, and this is like, this is the big change.
Speaker 2: This is where things really move off. That was, you know,
Speaker 2: fifty seven in now you jump to pick ninety. That's
Speaker 2: the fourth second baseman on the primer we're going to
Speaker 2: do here, and that is Marcus Simeon, who Marcus Simeon
Speaker 2: was darling for everybody. Marcus Simeon was like essentially in
Speaker 2: Kutel Marte's spot, and frankly, you know, maybe it's that
Speaker 2: general spot. It's almost probably picked for pick that you
Speaker 2: want to be careful of. Simeon homer potential was still there.
Speaker 2: He had twenty three homers this past year. Stole late bases,
Speaker 2: which definitely was a decline. I think that was the
Speaker 2: lowest he's had since twenty twenty with those eight stolen bases,
Speaker 2: and it was his lowest home run total since twenty
Speaker 2: twenty one, where he hit forty five in twenty twenty one.
Speaker 2: The biggest thing that jumps out to is the batting average.
Speaker 2: It tanked down to two thirty seven. He scored over
Speaker 2: one hundred runs. RBI opportunities weren't really there from if
Speaker 2: I remember correctly, last year was a really nice savant page.
Speaker 2: It looks pretty gross right now. Where he really thrives
Speaker 2: is he is a higher walk doesn't chase doesn't strike out.
Speaker 2: That kind of breeds to a points league player. But
Speaker 2: you know, some of the counting stats struggled. I'll stop
Speaker 2: there for a second, let you go, and I'll kind
Speaker 2: of keep digging in here thoughts on Marcus Simeon.
Speaker 3: It just that he's always consistently inconsistent, right, Like you know,
Speaker 3: you look at this his splits from month to month.
Speaker 3: It was two fifty eight and then two thirty nine,
Speaker 3: not bad from April to May, down to two oh
Speaker 3: two in June to two eighty seven in July back
Speaker 3: to two oh seven in August and then two thirty one.
Speaker 3: I mean it ends up looking okay a first hap,
Speaker 3: second half splits two forty two to two thirty. But
Speaker 3: you just the Marcus Simeon. Uh, you know, he will
Speaker 3: carry you and then he will sink you. And that's
Speaker 3: the inconsistency that I don't typically like in a daily league.
Speaker 3: At least in a daily league, you can get him
Speaker 3: out when he's struggling a little bit, so he's he's
Speaker 3: a very good player at the end of the year.
Speaker 3: That is frustrating in season, is how I just consistently
Speaker 3: feel about Marcus Simeon.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking here. Uh, he barreled at the same rate.
Speaker 2: His expected batting average was higher. There's a if we're
Speaker 2: going to build some optimism that was it was higher
Speaker 2: two fifty one. He still get he got the ball
Speaker 2: in the air a little bit less nineteen the previous year.
Speaker 2: He'd actually been over nineteen. Since twenty twenty, that fell
Speaker 2: to seventeen, but that still went with a good barrel,
Speaker 2: higher max the actually highest max ev of his career,
Speaker 2: but one of the lower average evs. His hard hit
Speaker 2: percentage went down by about two percent something to keep
Speaker 2: an eye on, and he underperformed pretty much against every
Speaker 2: single pitch type. He did a much better job on
Speaker 2: breaking in off speed pitches. The previous year two seventy
Speaker 2: six two fifty, his expected numbers were lower, but his
Speaker 2: numbers this year were under the expected numbers from the
Speaker 2: previous year, and those are trash. The fastballs though, two
Speaker 2: fifty four against expected to ninety big launch degrees. He
Speaker 2: gets under pull the ball the same lot more ground
Speaker 2: balls as you might expect in there, and I'm just
Speaker 2: trying to look if there's anything else. It's his own
Speaker 2: swing percentage was up, contact percentage was the same. He
Speaker 2: did chase more than he had done in some time.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I look at that and I think there might be
Speaker 2: some optimism as far as like where he can hit.
Speaker 2: I will say it looks like he underperformed Babbit Lois
Speaker 2: Babbit of his entire career at two fifty, so that's
Speaker 2: kind of a telling sign. Though he's not a three
Speaker 2: hundred babbit guy, so it looks like there's a little
Speaker 2: bit of underperformance there. I tend to think maybe he
Speaker 2: is losing some of that big max power because he
Speaker 2: was still barreling and not getting to it. But if
Speaker 2: the batting average goes up, maybe he's a twenty five
Speaker 2: homer ten stolen base and if you got Corey segerback
Speaker 2: and White Langford's playing well, maybe you could get back to,
Speaker 2: you know, hitting in some serious runs. I mean, Simeon
Speaker 2: they like to run Simi and out as the leadoff
Speaker 2: hitter and then they'll go Corey Seeger two.
Speaker 3: Maybe they screw with that a little bit, so he's
Speaker 3: more inconsistent. Altov without the stolen bases is kind when
Speaker 3: you look at.
Speaker 2: It well, and he scored one hundred runs with Seger
Speaker 2: missing time too, so that's kind of like a semi
Speaker 2: positive in there. I think there might be something there
Speaker 2: with him. But when you look at like his slug
Speaker 2: was down, his wOBA was down. His hard hit by
Speaker 2: the way, I mean, I understold it bottom twenty two
Speaker 2: percentile of the league. That's essentially like the bottom fifth
Speaker 2: of the league is as his hard hit. He never
Speaker 2: was a big hard hit guy. I guess in general,
Speaker 2: he reminds me of remember the conversations we had last
Speaker 2: year with like C. J. Abrams and Hassan Kim, where
Speaker 2: I was a little picky on them where it was like, man,
Speaker 2: these guys they don't barrel, they don't hit the ball hard.
Speaker 2: But what they do is they get they optimized by
Speaker 2: just getting the ball in the freaking air. And some
Speaker 2: guys can do that. And I felt like that's something
Speaker 2: hard to keep repeating, but I don't know. Some of
Speaker 2: these guys just do it. And Simeon has been doing
Speaker 2: it forever.
Speaker 3: Dudes had like a I mean again, he goes on
Speaker 3: these hot white hot. He cannot miss the ball. We
Speaker 3: saw it even in the World Series last year, right
Speaker 3: whereas like the first three games he did nothing and
Speaker 3: then the last two he was crushing it. So he
Speaker 3: just he is an up and down player. He's inconsistent.
Speaker 3: He's the numbers at the end of the year are
Speaker 3: pretty consistent. But the daily grind with Simeon is he
Speaker 3: is going to be wildly inconsistent. He's going to go
Speaker 3: through high highs and low lows. It has always been
Speaker 3: that way for him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what I do like about it is he's coming
Speaker 2: at a cheaper cost. This is another one of those likes. Ozzie,
Speaker 2: by the way, he just really struggled against Righty's I mean,
Speaker 2: let's see twenty twenty one. It is the lowest he's
Speaker 2: hit against rdy since twenty twenty and that's where like
Speaker 2: a lot of power comes from from him, and he
Speaker 2: only hit two twenty eight. He had eighteen homers against
Speaker 2: ridies this year while hitting only two twenty eight. So like,
Speaker 2: if you have low babbit, maybe you can you could
Speaker 2: foresee that and you, by the way, you hadn't expected
Speaker 2: batting average higher against fastballs. That the low babbit higher
Speaker 2: XB against fastballs, and your predominant power in there, maybe
Speaker 2: some of that power comes. I kind of don't buy
Speaker 2: the batting average going up too high. So two fifty
Speaker 2: call it twenty five homers. What's his steamer projection.
Speaker 3: On? Simeon? Yeah, uh, simeon steamer projection currently is this
Speaker 3: thing he wants to take forever to load. I had
Speaker 3: like just clicked away from it. Two fifty three, ninety
Speaker 3: four runs, twenty five homers, seventy three RBI, and twelve
Speaker 3: stolen bases.
Speaker 2: That's almost is exactly what I said. I actually think
Speaker 2: that is palatable at ninety that like that late pick that.
Speaker 3: Like I would rather have that at ninety than Altuve
Speaker 3: at fifty seven or fifty five or whatever he was,
Speaker 3: So I.
Speaker 2: Think I agree, and Albi's I think it's Kutel and
Speaker 2: then it moves on to Simeon. Let's go to another
Speaker 2: one that's exciting. So this guy is in this, I
Speaker 2: guess there's a couple guys in this this four to five. Yeah,
Speaker 2: And I think a lot of people are gonna like,
Speaker 2: we'll have to see where he goes. It's Jordan Westberg.
Speaker 2: Who Jordan Westburg is just outside the top one hundred
Speaker 2: eighteen homers in a little over four hundred bats, six
Speaker 2: dolen bases, he hit two sixty four. That batting average
Speaker 2: carried over from the year prior, where he had like
Speaker 2: two hundred at bats. Great barrel percentage numbers eleven point
Speaker 2: eight percent love it. He raised his hard hit percentage
Speaker 2: year over a year to above average forty six point
Speaker 2: one percent.
Speaker 3: Love it.
Speaker 2: His expected batting average higher than his batting average. Love it.
Speaker 2: Why do those all things equate to like higher expected numbers?
Speaker 2: Because that is a red baseball savant page Top twelve
Speaker 2: percent tile x wOBA XBA x slug, top twentieth percentile
Speaker 2: of average ex velocity and barrel percentage Top twenty four
Speaker 2: in the league and hard hit percentage, and he had
Speaker 2: a top nine percentile sprint speed dudes, fast dude to
Speaker 2: hit the ball consistently hit it hard by the way,
Speaker 2: twenty one point seven percent k percentage, which lowered from
Speaker 2: the year over year. Anybody who starts to do research
Speaker 2: on the position, we're gonna love Jordan Westburg. The thing is,
Speaker 2: we're gonna hope that we don't get fooled. But man,
Speaker 2: I will tell you Westburg, if he is outside the
Speaker 2: top one hundred, he's gonna be all of our targets.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, you didn't even mention his expected stats
Speaker 3: like his batting average. Uh you know, I was expected
Speaker 3: to be to eighty one though too sixty four, so
Speaker 3: seventeen points higher. And you know, you you look at
Speaker 3: the splits and everything. What was bad about his game?
Speaker 3: What was the second half? But the second he had
Speaker 3: the hand injury July thirty. First, he didn't play it
Speaker 3: all in August. He only played six games to finish
Speaker 3: the season, so he never really got he was slowing
Speaker 3: down a little bit in July that I think the
Speaker 3: batting average was down at like two thirty two. But
Speaker 3: I don't know, man, everything just seems wheels up as
Speaker 3: a young player that's still figuring everything out. And I
Speaker 3: just in this third year, this is where it really
Speaker 3: should take off. So like you said, I think I
Speaker 3: think the cost is going to start to rise the
Speaker 3: closer we get to actual draft season here. But yeah,
Speaker 3: he's a good investment, and I just there's not a
Speaker 3: lot to poke holes in and dislike with Westbroog.
Speaker 2: Right now, Yeah, and I got something there.
Speaker 3: He qualifies as second and third by the way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he he did struggle on the second half, as
Speaker 2: you mentioned, but he.
Speaker 3: Only played six games in uh like in September. He
Speaker 3: didn't play it all in August and that so that
Speaker 3: second half is really those six games and then the
Speaker 3: two weeks after the All Star Game.
Speaker 2: Now here's something to pay attention to. But this works
Speaker 2: positively and negatively, got big home road splits. His power
Speaker 2: was the same, but he hit over three hundred at
Speaker 2: home and he hit two twenty eight on the road.
Speaker 2: But here is so that's like a negative. But here's
Speaker 2: where the positive comes in. The Orioles are looking at
Speaker 2: changing the left field dimensions to make it more hitter
Speaker 2: friendly for right handed hitters. They made left field more
Speaker 2: pitcher friendly, which is why you see like expected numbers.
Speaker 2: They are changing the dimensions and that could be something
Speaker 2: good for Westbrook. Except this he was like a dead
Speaker 2: center center field type of power hitter. He actually had
Speaker 2: a really bad poll percentage, So like what I'm getting
Speaker 2: at is it's gonna be something to watch. He was
Speaker 2: forty five in his rookie year. Then he just started
Speaker 2: like middle fielding everything thirty eight percent pole percentage. So
Speaker 2: you wonder and you hope, like, don't change yourself too much,
Speaker 2: but if you pull the ball more, you're going to
Speaker 2: probably see more homers. And he gets a ball in
Speaker 2: their thirteen degree launch angle, which you absolutely love to see.
Speaker 2: So you know, if there is a if a change
Speaker 2: in that pole percentage for the positive, we love that
Speaker 2: his chase rate was a little bit higher. That's something
Speaker 2: to watch out for. And kind of a low ze
Speaker 2: zone contact percentage. It was under eighty percent, so that's
Speaker 2: like below average, So you know that makes me think
Speaker 2: I want to look at his bad and see was
Speaker 2: at high No. Three zero five. That's like a he
Speaker 2: was three thirty five the year before. That looks pretty good.
Speaker 2: It's hard to pick the knits, like the home road
Speaker 2: split would be one, but then I would go, well,
Speaker 2: you know, the home park is going to get even better.
Speaker 2: He did struggle against lefties a little bit this year,
Speaker 2: he only hit two thirty. He really dominated right handed hitters.
Speaker 2: That can tend to maybe change a little bit, but
Speaker 2: I don't know, there's some good balance in Like if
Speaker 2: he struggled with fastballs a little bit, he still hit
Speaker 2: almost two fifty against breaking pitches. He crushed EV's highest
Speaker 2: EV was against off speed pitches this year. Dude, he's
Speaker 2: a trip. I don't know how we're not going to
Speaker 2: love him. And the ballpark factor is going to just
Speaker 2: make left field even better. So what what are his projections?
Speaker 3: You want to guess?
Speaker 2: Yes I do. Let's see eighteen homers in four hundred.
Speaker 2: I'm going to guess twenty six homers. What's the stolen bases?
Speaker 2: Six twenty six homers? Ten stolen bases with a two
Speaker 2: it was two dy one with a two sixty eight average.
Speaker 3: Two sixty one, nineteen homers and only eight stone or
Speaker 3: only nineteen homers and eight stone bases. So I'm the
Speaker 3: homers is all that you were off of? And look
Speaker 3: if they're bringing the fence in a little you know,
Speaker 3: it's not gonna be a one for one and like
Speaker 3: it was before, but they are bringing it in, so uh,
Speaker 3: they're going to bring the fence in. Hopefully it gets
Speaker 3: a little bit better on the road, as you mentioned,
Speaker 3: but you know, his splits are more positive towards right.
Speaker 3: He's two seventy five vers right. He's against two thirty
Speaker 3: first lefties. We'll take that all day. Most pictures are righty,
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I just there's room for growth
Speaker 3: here for him. Thirteen homers against righties as well and
Speaker 3: only five against lefties, So yeah, I mean, I Jordan
Speaker 3: Westburg is definitely a player that's going to start moving up.
Speaker 3: Once people start doing their dives and they're digging, he's
Speaker 3: going to start picking up and up and up.
Speaker 2: I feel like it'd be really interesting to watch, though,
Speaker 2: because eight of his homers did go opposite field and
Speaker 2: he really just didn't pull like you want to talk
Speaker 2: about true pulling. It looks like two of those homers
Speaker 2: maybe let me call it four, or we're like actual
Speaker 2: big pull homers. And if I'm looking at the chart,
Speaker 2: I maybe see three hits that could have been homers
Speaker 2: on that side. But it's hard to be like, you know,
Speaker 2: can you repeat opposite field stuff? So I don't know
Speaker 2: either way. Like I think the cost is just really nice.
Speaker 2: I think I will bet you right now that once
Speaker 2: we get like what is it ATC and stuff and
Speaker 2: what's the what's CARDI? I'm completely blanking on CARDI is ATC?
Speaker 3: Is he not? No? The bat?
Speaker 2: Yeah, the bat, the bat, I will bet you those
Speaker 2: are going to be more aggressive on his power. I
Speaker 2: fully believe that. Next up on the list is a
Speaker 2: guy that I just watched a ton of in the AFL.
Speaker 2: He is around one fifteen, he is six. We've only
Speaker 2: got to six here. But that's why things are going
Speaker 2: to get plowing, Matt McClain. We really don't have a
Speaker 2: ton to go off of because we're looking what.
Speaker 3: Did you see? What do you see from the AFL?
Speaker 3: That's what I want to know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, yeah, one hundred percent because the only twenty
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three numbers we had it was sixteen fourteen,
Speaker 2: two ninety league average ish like decent barrel and stuf.
Speaker 2: So in the AFL he played multiple positions. He played
Speaker 2: center field, which I mean they moved they traded India.
Speaker 2: But I don't know if that's a one hundred percent
Speaker 2: just from mcclan They played him, and they played mclan
Speaker 2: at third, short, second, Well, I think you know he
Speaker 2: didn't play short. He played second, third and center field
Speaker 2: out there. My problem with him is that twenty eight
Speaker 2: point five percent k percent from twenty twenty three that
Speaker 2: is still in play. Nude was wild swinging still, I
Speaker 2: mean he was. I'm trying to yeah, argue no, not
Speaker 2: even he was the most pro guy there. He had
Speaker 2: the most pro at bats and he was I mean guy,
Speaker 2: you can get him high on high fastballs. Incredible bat speed,
Speaker 2: I mean, what was We don't have bat speed numbers,
Speaker 2: but I will bet you he's above league average and
Speaker 2: bat speed. He's still got a major strikeout issue. He
Speaker 2: does try to get the ball in the air. If
Speaker 2: he barrels, that's going to help him. But I am
Speaker 2: worried that the batting average his XBA from that twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three season was about thirty points lower. I'm worried
Speaker 2: he's more of a two forty two fifty hitter with
Speaker 2: high strikeouts. But like dude, freaking runs. He hit a
Speaker 2: couple homers when he was out there. I think those
Speaker 2: are things to be excited about, but it is really
Speaker 2: hard to to look at him and be like, you know,
Speaker 2: he hasn't played any year, what the hell is he
Speaker 2: going to do? Yeah, it looked like he was trying
Speaker 2: to pull the ball a little bit more out here,
Speaker 2: like he was more aggressive in that standpoint. He didn't
Speaker 2: pull the ball. Only five of his sixteen homers were
Speaker 2: even on like the left field side. It was a
Speaker 2: whole bunch of opposite field stuff he hit in that
Speaker 2: first year. And then let's look at.
Speaker 3: Well, he's in Sincy.
Speaker 2: You know it's yeah, I wanted to look at that
Speaker 2: shoe box. Ten of his six homers came from Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: probably all those opposite field ones, and he hit three
Speaker 2: h four. I'm not as optimistic about Matt McClain, if
Speaker 2: I'm being brutally honest. I remember you and I having
Speaker 2: the conversation last year in the Ranks episode. It was like,
Speaker 2: freaking mout McClain, let's go.
Speaker 3: I was excited, man, And yeah, obviously the shoulder injury
Speaker 3: just screwed the whole year for him. So I I
Speaker 3: was hoping we get maybe a little more of a
Speaker 3: discount on McLean, but no such luck. I still think
Speaker 3: I'm pretty.
Speaker 2: You hate the discount. I mean it's it's it's kind
Speaker 2: of decent.
Speaker 3: I mean post one hundred is fine, So it's fine.
Speaker 3: I was just hoping for a little bit more. Maybe
Speaker 3: with Garcia's good year, Terrain's good year, he would go
Speaker 3: fulow those guys. But no such luck there. But you know,
Speaker 3: maybe he's gonna qualify multiple positions too. We'll see what happens.
Speaker 3: As you said, they're bouncing them around all over the place.
Speaker 3: But I like, I just I want to see him
Speaker 3: back hitting because the lineup has gotten better and since
Speaker 3: he as well. So, uh, there's just there's a lot
Speaker 3: there for Matt McLean. So I think I'm going to
Speaker 3: be back in, maybe not as aggressive as I was
Speaker 3: last year, which you know, thank god we hold our
Speaker 3: drafts late for the most part. But yeah, last year,
Speaker 3: uh sucked. But I think he's gonna be pretty decent.
Speaker 3: But like you said, I I expect with this high
Speaker 3: strike strikeout rate at batting average come down this two
Speaker 3: nineties not realistic. You know, It's projections right now are
Speaker 3: a uh two sixty with twenty five homers an eighteen
Speaker 3: solen bases.
Speaker 2: So and I think me too high.
Speaker 3: You think it's too high.
Speaker 2: I think that's just too high. Like I don't know
Speaker 2: for just the version that but see, here's the problem.
Speaker 2: The version that I saw was a Matt McClain that
Speaker 2: hadn't done anything the whole year. I saw him in
Speaker 2: instructs before the AFL and he was just getting going
Speaker 2: and you know, so like he didn't have big reps,
Speaker 2: so he can't pick too much into it. Like there
Speaker 2: the skills are still there. Dude can fly, but he's
Speaker 2: just very hyper aggressive, and I just don't know what
Speaker 2: that's going to look like. I'm really worried about the
Speaker 2: batting average, but he does feel like a guy that
Speaker 2: could hit two forty and still be a twenty twenty guy.
Speaker 2: Like if he's on the base paths, he's going to run.
Speaker 2: He's got some uh some you know, real actual power potential.
Speaker 2: But it's just like league average eighty nine average x
Speaker 2: velocity about one ten the year before.
Speaker 3: I will even see in the second half of twenty
Speaker 3: twenty three that the strikeout rate was over thirty percent.
Speaker 3: And I'm worried that he is going to be a
Speaker 3: big swing and miss guy for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, like he might be a struggles first half click
Speaker 2: second half type of guy. Will say, also massively overperformed
Speaker 2: breaking pitches. In twenty twenty three, he had a two
Speaker 2: seventy five average against two oh seven expected batting average.
Speaker 2: I mean, dude, like way overperform there. It kind of
Speaker 2: comes back to it. He's not an all ball hitter.
Speaker 2: He's a fastball hitter.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: He hit two seventy eight and three seventy one against
Speaker 2: sinkers and fastballs, which are the two highest pitches he saw.
Speaker 2: Guess what, I'm gonna imagine he's going to see quite
Speaker 2: a bit of off speed stuff. Dude. He hit two
Speaker 2: eighty eight and twenty twenty three against sliders. Guess what
Speaker 2: his XBA was, no idea one sixty four over one
Speaker 2: hundred points lower. So I think he's gonna see some
Speaker 2: more off speed stuff which happened to AFL, and he
Speaker 2: might struggle a tiny bit. Luis Garcia new name to
Speaker 2: the field because he finally did counting stats. He's just
Speaker 2: one of those weird dudes that it was like, man,
Speaker 2: he'd be sweet with his contact if he could start
Speaker 2: doing something with it, and he did eighteen homers, twenty
Speaker 2: two stolen bases with the two eighty two batting average.
Speaker 2: He was out in the AFL some time back, top
Speaker 2: almost top ten percent tile expected batting average, so it
Speaker 2: supports it. Two seventy eight XBA. It's very supportive of
Speaker 2: his batting average. He increased his barrel percentage to eight percent,
Speaker 2: which is very doable career high forty one point seven
Speaker 2: percent hard hit. I like that, got the ball in
Speaker 2: the air more. Eight point two degree launch angle was
Speaker 2: four point six the year before, sixteen percent k rate,
Speaker 2: walks five percent of the time, not as.
Speaker 3: Either, dude, like average two eighty one in the first half,
Speaker 3: two eighty four in the second half. ISO won sixty
Speaker 3: three in the first half, one to sixty in the
Speaker 3: second half. Sole what was look, Yeah, twelve to ten
Speaker 3: in ten.
Speaker 2: Yes, I went to look at the exact same thing,
Speaker 2: like he's still all of it in like two months,
Speaker 2: Like no.
Speaker 3: He just right. This was just consistent production throughout the year,
Speaker 3: which is nice.
Speaker 2: He also hit lefties almost two sixty. He's a lefty.
Speaker 2: He hit two sixty the year prior, so I mean
Speaker 2: that's really positive. But seventeen of his eighteen homers came
Speaker 2: against right handed hitters. But he's going to face them more. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so like that's something to you know, consider into it.
Speaker 2: He definitely was heavy on that side pitch type. This
Speaker 2: is one of those guys he's this is what I
Speaker 2: when I say all type pitcher. This is an all
Speaker 2: types type of pitcher.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: It's three zero one against fastballs, three eighteen against off
Speaker 2: speed breaking was two thirty seven, which you know, it's
Speaker 2: not great, but it's like still doable. He hit more
Speaker 2: homers against breaking pitches, or hit the same amount of
Speaker 2: homers as breaking pitches against fastballs and off speed combined.
Speaker 2: Nine against breaking five and four were fastball and off
Speaker 2: speed combined. So that's again that's another positive. So that
Speaker 2: means like he's killing sliders, you know, and he was.
Speaker 2: He was putting him out to sixty seven batting average.
Speaker 2: So I'm trying to find the things that I don't
Speaker 2: like U Low's swing percentage because he would just like
Speaker 2: really look for that pitch. But he had a high
Speaker 2: zone contact rate, really high chase rate though Jesus, thirty
Speaker 2: six percent zone percentage went up. Trying to find the
Speaker 2: things that I don't like about it. I guess it's
Speaker 2: I think he's more fifteen to fifteen than I think
Speaker 2: he is, Like, he's probably get it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, even the projections are you know, they're almost
Speaker 3: like Rinson repeated what he had last year. It's more runs,
Speaker 3: sixty six runs, eighteen homers, seventy two RBI, which is
Speaker 3: two more than last year, and sixteen stone bases, which
Speaker 3: is six fewer than the previous season. But yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: you know, look, he's one of those guys where you
Speaker 3: get down to it at second base and you're looking
Speaker 3: at who's left. I think he's gonna go behind like
Speaker 3: Bryce Terrang I think he's maybe go behind some of
Speaker 3: these other guys with better names or more upside. But
Speaker 3: he's a safe play, I think, is what we're gonna
Speaker 3: end up saying with Luis Carcier, I.
Speaker 2: Wonder if this is one of those guys that has
Speaker 2: benefited from the new rules with stolen bases as well,
Speaker 2: because here's something interesting. Twenty two stolen bases.
Speaker 3: But he's in the bottom.
Speaker 2: He's below league average sprint speed, so it's not a
Speaker 2: dramatically fast guy. He attempted twenty seven stolen bases, he
Speaker 2: was caught five times. There's just nothing abnormal there, maybe
Speaker 2: just a really smart based stealer. He knows how to
Speaker 2: pick on and find the right catcher to steal against.
Speaker 2: I almost now want to, like, I just do a
Speaker 2: quick little glance, see if there's like a game lot.
Speaker 2: Was he still a lot of two bases? Let's see
Speaker 2: he had two there? Just trying to see like the distribution.
Speaker 2: I get, well, he had a couple of multi stolen
Speaker 2: based games. One was against the Cardinals. Maybe not particularly
Speaker 2: great at throwing out I mean, I'm just grasping at
Speaker 2: straws here. One was against the Dodgers.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Everything else was just singular ones. He just found his spots.
Speaker 2: But I guess where I'm going with.
Speaker 3: That is like maybe he just finally let him do it.
Speaker 2: I just don't maybe don't believe him as much. That's more,
Speaker 2: I don't believe this still.
Speaker 3: Look, his projections are six fewer, so drop from twenty
Speaker 3: two to sixteen. So projections aren't really buying all of
Speaker 3: it either.
Speaker 2: So but if he and if he does increase, because
Speaker 2: the one thing you can really count on is you
Speaker 2: can count on that he's a higher contact guy, and
Speaker 2: that can make you feel good about it. He did
Speaker 2: not score a lot of runs this past year. I
Speaker 2: actually think he would be the Nationals. Where the hell
Speaker 2: did he hit? He hit primarily fifth was he had
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty two of his back. He hit
Speaker 2: all over the place.
Speaker 3: Let's six, seven, eight nine for Washington's probably not the
Speaker 3: best spot.
Speaker 2: But if he was hitting like two, I think that'd
Speaker 2: be a semi positive. And if he grows the barrel
Speaker 2: and hits the ball a little bit harder than their's
Speaker 2: growth there, I just don't think the stolen bases are
Speaker 2: probably real. I would did you give me his projections?
Speaker 2: Because I feel like he's yeah, there were there was
Speaker 2: a right in line. Yeah it was sixteen and uh
Speaker 2: it was eighteen and sixteen. Okay, yeah, so I'm probably
Speaker 2: not going to be like massively interested Bryce Safe.
Speaker 3: He's a good floor player. I feel like contact, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: Bryce trying is super interesting though, because this is the
Speaker 2: first encounter of a player that like is devoid. He's
Speaker 2: devoid at homers. He had seven home this past year,
Speaker 2: but he stole fifty bases while hitting two fifty four.
Speaker 2: His expected batting average was higher at two sixty one, which.
Speaker 3: You love to see.
Speaker 2: But he is in this making of like the Luisa
Speaker 2: Rise type of play. Actually, who Luis Garcia used to
Speaker 2: be absolutely bottom barrel barrel percentage, horrific, hard hit percentage,
Speaker 2: one of the worst in the league. He dropped his
Speaker 2: launch angle, so this was like, I'm not I don't
Speaker 2: care about hitting homers down to six percent from twelve
Speaker 2: the previous year. But he doesn't strike out, he doesn't walk.
Speaker 2: And the only thing particularly besides his speed and the
Speaker 2: not striking out is the higher batting average, Like.
Speaker 3: That's what he does. Yeah, but he hit two to
Speaker 3: twenty in the second half, which is much closer to
Speaker 3: his twenty twenty three two eighteen batting average, So that
Speaker 3: kind of scares me a little bit and it could
Speaker 3: be scary.
Speaker 2: One thing, he hit three or two against fastballs. Expected
Speaker 2: was two seventy five, so there's a cool baseline. Struggled
Speaker 2: against breaking an off speed but had a higher expected
Speaker 2: batting average. Technically, his expected batting average is two fifty
Speaker 2: or higher against all those pitch types when they break
Speaker 2: them down into three pitch types, when you start to
Speaker 2: get individual like he killed sinkers, he killed fastballs, he
Speaker 2: killed sliders as well, and then you're starting to get
Speaker 2: into like the bottom twenty five percent of pitches seen,
Speaker 2: and that means a little bit less really really high
Speaker 2: zone contact, which actually I really like to see. I
Speaker 2: think the stolen bases are going to continue if not
Speaker 2: be more aggressive, especially if he if he had a
Speaker 2: higher expected batting average, you know, like maybe it's in
Speaker 2: the Lewis Rise range. Like what's his swing type two?
Speaker 2: His bats? Yeah, bottom two, so he does the Luise
Speaker 2: Rise thing. This is bottom barrels swing percentage sixty six
Speaker 2: point two, which is bottom two percent of the fricking league.
Speaker 2: But it is also massively short swing one of the
Speaker 2: shortest in the league six point one. League average is
Speaker 2: seven point three, So he is just short, compact, get
Speaker 2: to contact, use my speed, no power projection if you
Speaker 2: want tubes. I think he can get to two seventy
Speaker 2: two to seventy batting average with forty plus stolen bases.
Speaker 2: This is your guy. And then where was he hitting.
Speaker 2: He was primarily hit. He was leadoff, So I mean,
Speaker 2: if he got if he can continue that, uh, that's
Speaker 2: where we're gonna make our money. He did bat ninth
Speaker 2: the whole bunch as well, so I don't know, you know,
Speaker 2: with Churio and Yelich back, are they gonna do?
Speaker 3: Are they gonna do?
Speaker 1: What?
Speaker 2: Trang? Yelich? Yeah, well, you know with Willia Domis gone,
Speaker 2: that actually might work. It might go Trang then Yelich,
Speaker 2: then Churio and then Hoskins.
Speaker 3: Right, and I'm and I'm looking here. That makes me
Speaker 3: feel better is they have his projected batting averages two
Speaker 3: fifty four. I just don't know if that's believable.
Speaker 2: Well, but it was only to sixty one expected bout it.
Speaker 2: Oh you're you're saying you're really focused on the second half. Well, no, no,
Speaker 2: I mean just too sixty one.
Speaker 3: Though, Okay, I mean maybe I just uh, you know,
Speaker 3: having a full season before two eighteen and then the
Speaker 3: whole second half to twenty that that's I mean, I
Speaker 3: don't like it. Well, but we're not gonna be drafting
Speaker 3: by String at his current cost. He dips a little bit,
Speaker 3: I'll get in, well, so many solen bases, so many
Speaker 3: stole basis where the hell players? You can get stolen
Speaker 3: bases from almost all of them, but these.
Speaker 2: Are like elite, elite stole basis. Here's one thing I
Speaker 2: just want to throw out to when you're focusing on
Speaker 2: the second half. July he hit one sixty nine. August
Speaker 2: he hit two thirteen, so that's carrying it. But he
Speaker 2: ended the year hitting two fifty eight in September, so
Speaker 2: he did have a bounce back. Eleven stolen bases was
Speaker 2: the number one stolen bases that you know of any
Speaker 2: singular month. I don't know, he's probably better. Well it's
Speaker 2: not even a better point le guy, because he steals
Speaker 2: a lot of bases, but there's some value in there.
Speaker 2: So that is like a big course. So this next
Speaker 2: Tier'm gonna do some little bit quicker breakdowns on Zander
Speaker 2: Bogarts really fell, even though he was such a popular
Speaker 2: pick from previous years. I remember, like all of us
Speaker 2: were like, we're gonna draft Xander Bogarts. Xander Bogart's EIGHTYP
Speaker 2: fell down to one sixty two. He finished the season
Speaker 2: eleven homers, thirteen stolen bases, two sixty four, batting average
Speaker 2: like one hundred and seventy less. It pats. Everything was
Speaker 2: pullsided by the way he dipped in barrel percentage. His
Speaker 2: expected batting average kind of supported and it's kind of
Speaker 2: actually where it actually was higher than it had been
Speaker 2: in the previous years. Small dip and hard hit. Nothing
Speaker 2: to talk about in kasum percentage. I guess where I'm
Speaker 2: kind of getting at. Kind of looks like the same
Speaker 2: Ish player to me, he got the launch angle was better.
Speaker 2: I mean, I know talking to him, he didn't love
Speaker 2: second base. Maybe that was in his head. He pulled
Speaker 2: the ball a little bit more. I don't know, man,
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if I hate all of this that
Speaker 2: he might be a better value. What are his projections
Speaker 2: right now?
Speaker 3: To seventy one batting average, seventeen homers, and fourteen stolen bases.
Speaker 2: So the counting stats have gone away for people, that
Speaker 2: excitement because remember it was like twenty twenty was the projection,
Speaker 2: so they've killed that while improving his batting average.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's I mean, he's been on a three
Speaker 3: year decline in batting average as well. Three zero seven,
Speaker 3: two eighty five, two sixty four h only one hundred
Speaker 3: and eleven games because of the entries last year. But yeah,
Speaker 3: I don't know, he's just not exciting. He offers a
Speaker 3: decent floor. We you know, he's a productive player when
Speaker 3: he's in the lineup, but getting a little bit older.
Speaker 3: That batting average dipping three years in a row, at
Speaker 3: least the stolen bases have come back a little bit,
Speaker 3: so that's nice. But I think I don't know.
Speaker 2: By the way, if you like, you like your second
Speaker 2: half stuff. He hit two thirty one in the first half,
Speaker 2: two ninety two in the second half, about the same
Speaker 2: amount of at bats, so he finished really strong, I
Speaker 2: mean really strong. He had this crazy July. He hit
Speaker 2: two fifty nine in September, but two ninety two in
Speaker 2: the second half.
Speaker 3: That's I just feel I feel lukewarm on Xander.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he had some bad home roums. He's two forty
Speaker 2: six at home to eighty on the road. I guess
Speaker 2: I feel maybe I feel lukewarm ish as well. But
Speaker 2: who is it we were talking about earlier that I
Speaker 2: was like, that's like a fifteen to fifteen average guy,
Speaker 2: Like that's what Bogarts is, but cheaper the hell was
Speaker 2: was Garcia? Yeah, Luis Garcia. That's forty picks later than
Speaker 2: Garcia for Xander Bogarts and in a better offense. I
Speaker 2: don't know, man, I might I might lean into that a.
Speaker 3: Little bit more. I think the only thing that you
Speaker 3: don't have there is I think Xander's on the way
Speaker 3: down and Garcia might be on the way up.
Speaker 2: That's a fair point. Yeah, and Garcia had like positive
Speaker 2: like you know, barrel percentage went up, hard hit went
Speaker 2: up like Bogarts doesn't have that. I guess when I
Speaker 2: look at it, though, I think there are some positives
Speaker 2: that he's kind of a value. Nico Horner was one
Speaker 2: of the biggest guys I picked on last year. He
Speaker 2: comes in at ten one sixty nine. I hated his
Speaker 2: value last year, dead right about that, but he was
Speaker 2: still productive. Seven homers, thirty one stolen bases. You know
Speaker 2: that's not bad if it's post one fifty. It's just
Speaker 2: the problem is it was like top fifty or sixty.
Speaker 2: Last year. He hit two seventy three, which is very
Speaker 2: supportive of his average. His XBA was the best of
Speaker 2: his career except his rookie year. But like Terrang, one
Speaker 2: point two barrel, one of the worst hard hits in
Speaker 2: the league. But a doesn't strikeout, so this is like
Speaker 2: Terrang all over again. You could maybe argue, why take
Speaker 2: Terrang when you can get Nico for free?
Speaker 3: That's what I was about to say. Yeah, I mean
Speaker 3: it's not free. But he also hit two ninety seven
Speaker 3: in the second half. He had more stolen bases seventeen
Speaker 3: in the second half. In uh, you know what would
Speaker 3: that be twenty five fewer games to fourteen in the
Speaker 3: first half. Yeah, I mean he just looks better down
Speaker 3: the stretch as well, and lives.
Speaker 2: A ninety two point seven zone contact percentage. I mean
Speaker 2: he is making contact, it's just not good contact. Here's
Speaker 2: the thing we don't know, though, might get traded. There's
Speaker 2: a lot of rumors that he could get traded and
Speaker 2: they could put Matt Shaw in there. I guess I
Speaker 2: look at this and I just I guess I feel
Speaker 2: comfortable with who he is now. All my picking on
Speaker 2: him last year was like, we're out of our minds.
Speaker 2: There's no power projection, We're out of our minds for
Speaker 2: paying the costs that we were this post one point
Speaker 2: fifty for thirty stolen bases.
Speaker 3: I'm down with this.
Speaker 2: I don't I don't think that's a baud. It's just
Speaker 2: if he gets traded to like the Marlins or something,
Speaker 2: that's gonna stink, I'm gonna hate that.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I don't think that doesn't happen. You know,
Speaker 3: I don't see.
Speaker 2: Growth in Nico, but I still see the same player.
Speaker 2: Super low strikeouts. He ran a little bit less, but
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna like they haven't picked on that. They
Speaker 2: haven't projected for twenty seven swipes.
Speaker 3: Oh really yeah, what's his batting average? Projection should be
Speaker 3: to seventy seven? Okay, yeah, eight homers, I mean, I
Speaker 3: think everything else, but twenty fewer runs as well. Sixty
Speaker 3: six down from eighty six, fifty six r The RBI
Speaker 3: went up and OBP went up a little bit, but yeah,
Speaker 3: down to twenty seven stolen bases, don't interesting.
Speaker 2: The next guy on here, you've got bright Actually, well,
Speaker 2: I'm jumping it's secondly twelve. There's another guy that moved
Speaker 2: up recently, but let's do Bryson Stott, who's around one
Speaker 2: seventy five. Bryson Stott's average tanked. He didn't. It's funny
Speaker 2: because he didn't grow in any other areas. But he
Speaker 2: still kind of put up the same thing. Second straight
Speaker 2: season of thirty stolen bases, second straight season of double
Speaker 2: digit homers. It just went from fifteen to eleven. His
Speaker 2: batting average sunk a decent amount. His expected batting average
Speaker 2: is a little bit higher though, and is closer to
Speaker 2: what we've seen. But he dropped in his barrel. He
Speaker 2: dropped in his hard hit, kind of like these other guys.
Speaker 2: Low K percentage, high walk percentage. He did get the
Speaker 2: ball in the air a bit more, but I guess
Speaker 2: you would look and you'd be like, well, what how
Speaker 2: do I project that he can become a better hitter,
Speaker 2: And it's I think the answer is you can't. Like
Speaker 2: fifteen thirty is like the cap of him, especially that
Speaker 2: he drops some of these stats. Like I like that
Speaker 2: he got the ball in the air more, but he
Speaker 2: just doesn't barrel. I think he hits decent contact, he's
Speaker 2: okay against the pitch types and eighty six percent zone
Speaker 2: contact percentage. Man, it's really hard to discern. Like Bryce
Speaker 2: terrang him and Nico Horner, they're all kind that's back
Speaker 2: to what you were saying, like when I'm like, you
Speaker 2: could take Nico Horner or you could take Bryce training,
Speaker 2: and you're like, well, those guys exist over here, Like
Speaker 2: this guy doesn't have the batting average, but there's a
Speaker 2: little bit more power potential. But jesus, it is all
Speaker 2: pull side. He has no real raw power to pull
Speaker 2: anywhere else. So it is going to be every single
Speaker 2: homer was pull side.
Speaker 3: This year. Yeah, I mean being in Philly is nice
Speaker 3: for that at least, so that's good. But yeah, I
Speaker 3: would say he's firmly third in this group, but this
Speaker 3: group probably needs to be a little closer. But Train
Speaker 3: definitely has way more upside than both those guys. But yeah,
Speaker 3: I just I'm kind of standing firm on you know,
Speaker 3: why pay for Traynga where he is when you can
Speaker 3: get these guys significantly later.
Speaker 2: I guess the difference for me is, like those guys
Speaker 2: have better stolen base potential. I look at Stott as
Speaker 2: a guy that has better power potential. He did underperform
Speaker 2: his babbitt but tiny bit, and he's had three straight
Speaker 2: seasons of double digit homers. So if I'm chasing a
Speaker 2: little bit more average and stolen bases, it's the other
Speaker 2: guys if I'm chasing. I don't even want to call
Speaker 2: it more of a complete player because he only had
Speaker 2: fifty seven RBIs, But I think the potential for him
Speaker 2: to be a little bit higher RBI is there. But
Speaker 2: did only score ninety sixty five runs when he hit
Speaker 2: like ninth all year, he hit uh fifth and sixth.
Speaker 2: It's amazing the RBI opportunities didn't show up when he
Speaker 2: hit almost three hundred at bats were between fifth and
Speaker 2: six like that.
Speaker 3: It should have been, but it just especially in Philly.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I'm saying exactly. Only a couple more
Speaker 2: in the actual breakdown, and we'll just throw a couple
Speaker 2: names out Andres Jimenez another thirty stolen base nine homer
Speaker 2: guy hit two point fifty two. Is that offense really
Speaker 2: picked up left handed hitter who was one of the
Speaker 2: few that did not see a benefit and an uptick
Speaker 2: on that right field that they changed on the Guardians,
Speaker 2: probably because he lost five degrees on his launch angle.
Speaker 2: He also his garrel percentage was cut in half. It's
Speaker 2: hard to hit percentage with down. I hate all of
Speaker 2: that stuff. Maybe it can change because he had a
Speaker 2: thirteen degree launch agal the year before that. That's what
Speaker 2: you need to do. But he lost his barreling and
Speaker 2: it looks like, I mean, I'm trying to did it
Speaker 2: come from losing fastballs? He hit the same uh sliders,
Speaker 2: He hit sinkers a lot worse this year. That's about
Speaker 2: the pitch that I can tell.
Speaker 3: He hit in the first half and two fifty two
Speaker 3: in the second half. Is insanely predictable. It looks like
Speaker 3: for him and as Ower, the power just went away,
Speaker 3: like you said, the.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I like him a lot less too. One
Speaker 2: eighty seven, uh is his ADP. He's thirteenth on the list.
Speaker 2: I like him less too, because he's got the lowest
Speaker 2: zone contact percentage of all these dudes we've been talking about,
Speaker 2: like all these base guys. It's the lowest there, but
Speaker 2: it's one of the most friendly environments for his handed
Speaker 2: bat right being able to hit to right field. He
Speaker 2: just didn't do it. So maybe if he could get
Speaker 2: back to that and make that a focus this year,
Speaker 2: and you can get back into a thirteen degree launch angle,
Speaker 2: you get that catch up little wind pocket, maybe he
Speaker 2: could hit more homers. Is there any projection that is
Speaker 2: on that side or nay?
Speaker 3: I mean they have him back to normal, but it's
Speaker 3: fourteen homers, you know, it's His batting average is two
Speaker 3: sixty three. They have him at which is up ten points,
Speaker 3: eleven points from last season. Fourteen homers, which would add
Speaker 3: five stolen base is twenty seven, down three. So what'd
Speaker 3: you say the average was?
Speaker 2: Sorry, two sixty three, that's not bad. I mean, that's
Speaker 2: still his career to sixty one, So that's the hell
Speaker 2: is better than his career one eighty seven. I mean
Speaker 2: that is forty five spots lower than Bryce Terrang. Bryce
Speaker 2: Ring's got a higher batting average and probably uh stolen
Speaker 2: base potential.
Speaker 3: But I don't know.
Speaker 2: I guess there's some These are all middle infielders to me,
Speaker 2: by the way, Like I coming back to your question
Speaker 2: from before, not to believor this, You're like, how do
Speaker 2: I feel about the position now that we've gone you know,
Speaker 2: twelve thirteen deep. It's like, well, I really want like
Speaker 2: like if I don't get Westburg, Simeon or Marte, I'm
Speaker 2: going to feel the stress and then I would love
Speaker 2: to get one of these dudes in that middle infield
Speaker 2: you want. You want to chase some stolen bases and
Speaker 2: go get a Nico at one sixty nine, or you know,
Speaker 2: Getjmenez near two hundred, Like I could I could stomach that.
Speaker 2: We did talk about a rise, I think in the
Speaker 2: first basement, didn't we Yes, we did. So he comes
Speaker 2: in at fourteen the last why I do want to
Speaker 2: mention Ring gifo, but because he is higher in ADP
Speaker 2: right now, he's actually the eleventh second baseman here, but
Speaker 2: Glabor Torres, who we do not know where he's going
Speaker 2: to go, that maybe plays a slight role in it.
Speaker 2: That one year seemed kind of an anomaly I was,
Speaker 2: I wrote last year. I was like, oh, he just
Speaker 2: hit sliders so much better, and look he's changed and
Speaker 2: he's not whiffing, and that just fell apart.
Speaker 3: This year.
Speaker 2: Homer's way down fifteen only four stolen bases, two fifty
Speaker 2: seven average. All of those were just stinky barrel percentage
Speaker 2: is on a three year decline. Hard hit percentage three
Speaker 2: year decline down to thirty five point four. His expected
Speaker 2: batting average was the lowest it's ever been in his career.
Speaker 3: Seventeen points worse than what he actually hit too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but Lonchek was good, the max EV was good,
Speaker 2: but he lost the overall hard hit stuff. And part
Speaker 2: of that is is coming back to twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: he hit that off speed stuff. Well that was gone
Speaker 2: this year, Like he just hit fastballs to ninety six.
Speaker 2: That's all he did. Horrific exit velocities versus breaking and
Speaker 2: off speed stuff. He just got back to whiffan through everything.
Speaker 2: And by the way, he saw less sliders. This year
Speaker 2: he saw, Yeah, that's it. He just saw more fastballs,
Speaker 2: less sliders, and he just stunk. And that tells me, oh,
Speaker 2: that was an anomaly from the year before. So I
Speaker 2: don't love that, and it's you know, maybe the home
Speaker 2: park is going to go in there. But the baseball
Speaker 2: savant stuff all below average thirty nine percent alex Woa,
Speaker 2: But like, I just don't love any of that stuff.
Speaker 2: I don't feel super optimistic because he just regressed back
Speaker 2: to the hitter that he was and the hard hit
Speaker 2: went away. I just kind of hate it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it just it doesn't look good and the expected
Speaker 3: numbers being bad as well. It kind of looks like
Speaker 3: this dude should not be in this range. He should
Speaker 3: be in the next group, which kind of is. But
Speaker 3: just with all these guys stealing bases, right, I don't
Speaker 3: I don't know that he really belongs in this group.
Speaker 3: I think he belongs to the next group. Like the
Speaker 3: post two hundred and his one ninety nine ADP ADP
Speaker 3: currently that's probably gonna sink.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure. So the last one of the actual
Speaker 2: breakdown and then I just want to throw it out
Speaker 2: if there's a guy or too just to look I
Speaker 2: probably should look at Jackson holiday ring gifo was on
Speaker 2: this list. Just missed a lot of time, twenty four
Speaker 2: stolen bases in two hundred and eighty three at bats,
Speaker 2: he hit three hundred, He had six homers. It's kind
Speaker 2: of hard because of the injury stuff, but like his
Speaker 2: barrel just tanked. His hard hit went way down his.
Speaker 3: Ex I mean it's every year too, you know, with
Speaker 3: the injuries seventy eight, one, six, twenty seven. You know,
Speaker 3: he's just been banged up.
Speaker 2: A lot, lost launch angle, couldn't get the ball in
Speaker 2: the air. He did have a better expected batting average
Speaker 2: this year than any other year, so it kind of
Speaker 2: looks like he just conformed as a player. Really high
Speaker 2: batting average against fastballs and off speed, but dramatically low
Speaker 2: ex velocity against fastballs, so that's probably where that power was. Lastly,
Speaker 2: he stopped pulling the ball. A lot of ground balls,
Speaker 2: but he has a really high zone contact percentage, So
Speaker 2: I guess it's got to be like just do you
Speaker 2: love him? You know he's he's a switch hitter. He
Speaker 2: hit two eighty or higher against both pitch types in
Speaker 2: his limited bats this past year, which is solid. But
Speaker 2: he had a look at this home road split three
Speaker 2: point fifty one in LA two forty four.
Speaker 3: On the road. He's also just a much better hitter,
Speaker 3: you know, versus lefties as a righty, and you know,
Speaker 3: he's a switch hitter, so to seventy six as a
Speaker 3: right handed batter, and then two forty three is a
Speaker 3: left handed batter, and most of his have bats in
Speaker 3: his career has been as a you know, batting against righties.
Speaker 3: So I don't know, man, it's just the injuries, the inconsistency,
Speaker 3: and I'm probably doing a little bit of the over
Speaker 3: correction because I had him in so many spots last
Speaker 3: year because he qualified at so many spots, and that
Speaker 3: that has gone away as well. So yeah, I'm just
Speaker 3: not gonna be in on him so much. So second, second,
Speaker 3: and third, which is still it's nice for dueal eligibility,
Speaker 3: but last year was like second, third, short outfield. He
Speaker 3: had everything.
Speaker 2: So yeah, he's at one seventy. It's not the best,
Speaker 2: it's not the worst.
Speaker 3: It's fine.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure. I'm not sure where I I This
Speaker 2: is one I'm not gonna walk away from, like us
Speaker 2: primering this to know exactly how I feel, because he
Speaker 2: way overperformed against Righty's where he typically looks like he
Speaker 2: just struggles, Like he hit two forty the year before,
Speaker 2: two thirty eight, the year before that, one ninety seven
Speaker 2: before that. Maybe that's him maturing as a hitter. But
Speaker 2: then when we go and look at some of the
Speaker 2: underlying stuff, well, he got worse at beryling. He doesn't
Speaker 2: have a great launch angle, you know, like his hert
Speaker 2: hit went down like okay, So then let me look here.
Speaker 2: Did I look at Babbitt here?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I didn't.
Speaker 2: He way over performed. I was just about to say,
Speaker 2: does this mean he had to hire Babbitt almost three
Speaker 2: forty and he's a two ninety career Babbit guy, So
Speaker 2: babbit overperformed kind of feels like he does get to
Speaker 2: hit two. But if he's a two sixty guy and
Speaker 2: is a ten thirty, he actually could be a deal.
Speaker 2: I could stomach it. I think I could stomach it.
Speaker 2: But again, it doesn't feel good. That's the genda here.
Speaker 2: That five through or really that's six through eight or
Speaker 2: six through nine, you're like allight, and then it's like
Speaker 2: ten through fifteen, it's like would you like thirty stolen bases?
Speaker 2: And then no, homers.
Speaker 3: These are guys that you take asmin l infielders when
Speaker 3: you're low on stolen bases. That's what they are, and
Speaker 3: that's not good because that's a big chunk of the
Speaker 3: second base position itself. So it looks like just really
Speaker 3: you need to invest early in whoever you like up top.
Speaker 3: Whatever the guy is up top that you like, just
Speaker 3: go for it and make sure you have him before
Speaker 3: you have to dig into this area.
Speaker 2: You're not wrong. It looks like there's five real second basemen.
Speaker 2: There's probably another five that you can talk yourself into,
Speaker 2: and there's a bunch of middle infielders. So that's positionally
Speaker 2: outside the top two hundred. Mikel Garcia, Jackson Holiday, Geloff, Colt, Keith, Brendan, Donovan,
Speaker 2: Brandon Law, Willie Castro, India Cabalio, cronin Worth who's first baseman.
Speaker 2: And Chris Morel, who qualifies a couple different spots. Think
Speaker 2: it might be more primary third now, but Jackson Holiday
Speaker 2: is super interesting, Like, you know, will you want to
Speaker 2: buy back in he hit one eighty nine. His XBA stunk,
Speaker 2: but I will say good barrel, good hard hit percentage.
Speaker 2: He just didn't know what the hell he was hitting
Speaker 2: hit a thirty three percent strikeout rate. If he just
Speaker 2: improves as a hitter in the next year, he has
Speaker 2: a lot of underlying stuff that I love on almost
Speaker 2: ten percent a launch angle, good hard hit numbers. I
Speaker 2: think he could bounce back. I'm gonna be honest with you,
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna buy back in on the cheap. What
Speaker 2: are his his projections?
Speaker 3: Yeah, let me pull him up here. I just this
Speaker 3: is one of those things like he will be if
Speaker 3: he starts spring hot, he will be the fast this
Speaker 3: riser of anybody. Two thirty four is a batting average
Speaker 3: projector ten homers, eight stolen bases in one hundred and
Speaker 3: twelve games.
Speaker 2: Okay, so that's what I wanted to ask. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean I was so wrong about him last year, probably
Speaker 2: going to go down with the ship again. I think
Speaker 2: that's wrong again. I think, if you know, with a
Speaker 2: whole offseason of work at the major league level, the tweaking,
Speaker 2: how well they've done in developing those guys, he already
Speaker 2: has this good underlying base. If he is a two
Speaker 2: thirty hitter, I think he's hitting eighteen homers. If he's
Speaker 2: a two to fifty hitter, I think he's going over
Speaker 2: twenty and maybe you see him be more aggressive and
Speaker 2: his ADP is too ten, So I don't hate him
Speaker 2: at all. Also, just wanted to mention Jonathan India who's
Speaker 2: now a Royal, really good expected wOBA and batting average
Speaker 2: expected numbers. He hit fifteen thirty thirteen, fifteen homers, thirteen
Speaker 2: stolen bases last year in a pretty hitter friendly environment.
Speaker 2: It was kind of always the same hitter. He just
Speaker 2: learned to walk more and strike out a little bit less.
Speaker 2: Getting out of the ballpark. It does look like there's
Speaker 2: some squeakers that he might end up losing, but one
Speaker 2: of the lowest chase rates in all of baseball, one
Speaker 2: of the highest walk rates in baseball, and he gets
Speaker 2: the ball in the frickin air. Maybe he scores more runs.
Speaker 2: Maybe he's a fifteen to fifteen guy. He's probably pretty average,
Speaker 2: but I do feel like he could score quite a
Speaker 2: few more runs. You have anything on Jonathan India with
Speaker 2: the Royals now?
Speaker 3: I mean just excited to see him in a new spot, right,
Speaker 3: just a new environment, a new spots, not fighting for
Speaker 3: playing time every single day, so maybe he can relax
Speaker 3: and hit a little better. So That's what I'm keeping
Speaker 3: my fingers crossed for.
Speaker 2: You want a negative though, all ballpark. If he played
Speaker 2: all his games in Cincinnati, he'd have had twenty homers
Speaker 2: last year. If he played all his games in Kansas
Speaker 2: City last year the lowest home run total of eight. Yeah,
Speaker 2: had eight, which that would have shared with Boston, the A's,
Speaker 2: the Marlins. Those were the worst for him. So something
Speaker 2: to keep an eye on out. I don't think he's
Speaker 2: ever going to bounce crazy back. I do think maybe
Speaker 2: he could steal more that team does, like Aron, I know,
Speaker 2: Cincinnati did. You just got to stay healthy. India might
Speaker 2: be kind of cheap. He's down in the two seventies,
Speaker 2: but it's a it's another list of other players, like
Speaker 2: I think col Keith is interesting. We'll talk about him
Speaker 2: in the ranks. Geloff had a pretty rough year. Mikeel
Speaker 2: Garcia is probably the CVS version of those same guys,
Speaker 2: and as the Scott's like, he could steal thirty bases
Speaker 2: and whatnot.
Speaker 3: Bad batting averages in this area here. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 3: Cole Keith two away, morell way down there as well.
Speaker 3: Willie Castro in the second half was miserable after being
Speaker 3: an All Star, So yeah.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with I guess I'm gonna go with
Speaker 2: the echo chamber a little bit. His position does stink,
Speaker 2: it's not great. Can you make do with it? Absolutely? Man,
Speaker 2: you miss out and you want to go and be like,
Speaker 2: all right, you know you can get two of the
Speaker 2: same type of players.
Speaker 3: I screwed up.
Speaker 2: I'm going to dominate stolen bases and I'm going to
Speaker 2: get Nico Horner and under as Jiminez. But then you
Speaker 2: are playing from behind him power. I just don't want
Speaker 2: to play from behind in power and not sure you
Speaker 2: need to make up stolen bases, But there you go.
Speaker 2: Let us do what you guys think On the second
Speaker 2: base primer, who the guys that you're digging? What did
Speaker 2: you dig out of this? And hopefully we brought some
Speaker 2: new insights to you guys. Next step, what do you want?
Speaker 2: What are we doing? Shortstop or third base?
Speaker 3: People are right in shortstop, we're going around the horn,
Speaker 3: So shorting.
Speaker 2: Around the horn perfect, We're gonna pass it over for
Speaker 2: a double play on shortstops. Next then going to third base,
Speaker 2: and then we'll have a big old outfield which we'll
Speaker 2: be dealing with. So make sure to go and check
Speaker 2: us out at in this League dot Com. That's where
Speaker 2: the ranks live. I am working on the redraft ranks
Speaker 2: hopefully going to be right around December, First plus Prospect
Speaker 2: and Dynasty. I'm also writing for the Black Book right now,
Speaker 2: we're doing stuff over on Fantasy Pro. So we got
Speaker 2: ranks coming, We got the whole thing happening. Also, looking
Speaker 2: in December is probably when I'm gonna be doing a
Speaker 2: best Ball or two maybe, and we will shoot that
Speaker 2: over to the ITL Army members if people want to
Speaker 2: check it out, so come and support us and join
Speaker 2: the groups as well at in this League dot Com.
Speaker 2: That's what you can do for indoes. Find us on
Speaker 2: the twitters at is it the Welsh, at Bogman Sports.
Speaker 2: We're on the other so socials as well. And you
Speaker 2: know we're doing this right around Thanksgiving, Happy holidays, and
Speaker 2: we will talk to you next time right here on
Speaker 2: in this league.
Speaker 3: Soil m HM