Speaker 1: With the ron segle and from London and Gerard read
Speaker 1: from Berlin.
Speaker 2: This is Redefining Energy.
Speaker 1: Minutes today Onredefend Energy job. The number is six minutes,
Speaker 1: which is exactly the number of minutes have been talking
Speaker 1: the past six episodes. Because there's just been you, You
Speaker 1: and Michael Barna, I've decided to talk a lot. Now
Speaker 1: can I kick off for the question? Come on, okay?
Speaker 2: How many employees do you think Northfold has, which is
Speaker 2: the biggest battery manufacturer in Europe?
Speaker 1: Oh my god? Thousands, six thousands, Oh my god. So
Speaker 1: we're talking about batteries a top of We're going to
Speaker 1: talk about batteries and a lot of other things, but
Speaker 1: mainly about batteries. Let would give you a second question,
Speaker 1: mm hmm.
Speaker 2: How many people do c ATL the biggest BA Manu
Speaker 2: facturer in the world. Haven't Orange?
Speaker 1: Oh? I must be six thousand, eighteen thousand, Oh my god.
Speaker 2: Who's gonna win, Lauren.
Speaker 1: That's the point of having that conversation today. I said,
Speaker 1: I'm going to talk a lot, so don't interrupt me please.
Speaker 1: I want to remind you what John Wick said. People
Speaker 1: ask me all the time. If I'm back, I think
Speaker 1: I'm back, pledge you back, Okay because it's September. A
Speaker 1: bit of music now.
Speaker 3: Come yeah, man on, you're a bit of an idiot, honest.
Speaker 1: Okay. We're going to talk about by and my theory
Speaker 1: and I want to discuss it with you. Is called
Speaker 1: a great consolidation. It's going to be a consolidation of suppliers.
Speaker 1: It's a consolidation of fum factors and the consolidation in chemistry.
Speaker 1: We follow battery a lot, but I like to pay
Speaker 1: tribute to a lot of young people who are really
Speaker 1: the expert. And we had the Carma Coloire on the show.
Speaker 1: I want to talk about Aaron Waite from the Volta
Speaker 1: Foundation that we have invited later this year, Dom Sug,
Speaker 1: Christopher Chico, Chris Berry, all the team at Benchmark. They
Speaker 1: are remarkable and they have a a shoot called row
Speaker 1: Motion that publish extraordinary research on batteries, and especially a
Speaker 1: young lady called Jola Jug And I can tell you
Speaker 1: a star is bomb because she's absolutely remarkable.
Speaker 2: Yes, Leral and this, and I suppose we actually have
Speaker 2: to ask answer one question is why do we keep
Speaker 2: talking about batteries? And I think we both agree that
Speaker 2: we think this is one of the technologies that revolutionizes
Speaker 2: our one is revolutionary at our world, and we just
Speaker 2: ignore it. We don't even think about it.
Speaker 1: Why we do that is because the prices have gone
Speaker 1: down so fast. The adoption rate ivis are developing from
Speaker 1: say fourteen million last year to seventeen million this year,
Speaker 1: so this is unstoppable. But ESS is going twice as fast,
Speaker 1: and this is really going to change totally the way
Speaker 1: the grids are being managed.
Speaker 2: Absolutely with you one hundred percent, but I'm going to
Speaker 2: let you talk given that you weren't able to talk
Speaker 2: and all.
Speaker 1: This, we're so frustrated. First of all, internal market share.
Speaker 1: I've got the market share for EV's batteries or doesn't
Speaker 1: cover ESS, but it's pretty much the same suppliers. If
Speaker 1: I look at the first half of TOR two four Kettle,
Speaker 1: you talk about Kettle as thirty eight percent of the
Speaker 1: world market. Then BYD sixteen, so just the two of them,
Speaker 1: they're above fifty percent. Then come LG from Korea thirteen percent,
Speaker 1: sk C Alb from China, SDI Panasonic, Ava from China, Gautchan,
Speaker 1: So we have nine company ninety percent of the market.
Speaker 2: And meanwhile, back in Sleepy Europe.
Speaker 1: Where we go, we get Moro in Norway they opened
Speaker 1: their factory five giga what our, which compares to cattle
Speaker 1: next year six hundred giga what Our. But we're very
Speaker 1: happy for morow. Yep, it's a start. And what we've
Speaker 1: seen is an incredible story of what I've called the
Speaker 1: canceled Giga factories in Europe. And I've got the list
Speaker 1: of all those plants has been canceled or postponed Abe Romania,
Speaker 1: acc in Germany, i MTE, British World, far As, this Ino,
Speaker 1: lith Ino, bad ital Vault, Cock Holding, Turkey, Chreissel, Microvast,
Speaker 1: north voltas canceled one plant in Sweden, Poerko and Vault
Speaker 1: in Germany. So certainly it's a bit boring, but I
Speaker 1: mean that list is phenomenal considering the enthusiasm were two
Speaker 1: three years ago. And what does that tell us, Well,
Speaker 1: it's consolidation. People are just gonna use one of the
Speaker 1: top nine. And you asked the question about north Volt Well,
Speaker 1: I don't know, but from the outside looking in, it
Speaker 1: doesn't look great.
Speaker 2: No, Listen, they can't cancel their IPO and the miss
Speaker 2: execute just be really clear enough. The thing we learned
Speaker 2: from Solar as you have to get scale weekly and
Speaker 2: ten years is not getting the scale quickly.
Speaker 1: And I think one of the mistakes, but it's easy
Speaker 1: now to analyze compared to when they launch five years ago,
Speaker 1: is that they get the wrong technology, because what we
Speaker 1: see is that the market is absolutely converging towards LFP,
Speaker 1: LIAMP for Spade, and that NMC is being abandoned. Now
Speaker 1: Nikkel and Cobalt are as cheap as they've been in
Speaker 1: twenty years. But I believe that the market and it's
Speaker 1: the case even for my personal investments, we're all going
Speaker 1: for LFP period.
Speaker 2: By the way, since I with last chatter, I got
Speaker 2: a new car, I've got to tel the model, why
Speaker 2: it's got a battery from.
Speaker 1: No BYD BYD and what technology is? Are LFP exactly exactly?
Speaker 1: What is very also interesting? So we talk about the
Speaker 1: consolidation of suppliers, we talk about the consolidation of chemistry.
Speaker 1: It's the consolidation in the foam factor.
Speaker 2: Need you explain to people what that is?
Speaker 1: You've got three form factors. The first one is pouch,
Speaker 1: which you find in the bid blade. How would you
Speaker 1: describe pouch rectangular shape? Yeah, but it's soft cylindricurl, so
Speaker 1: that's kind of easy. It's like your triple A batteries. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and Prismatic and Prismatic is a Cuba is a cube
Speaker 1: of two kilos and theanoes and the ketoes are on
Speaker 1: the top. In two nineteen, Pouch was forty six percent,
Speaker 1: cylindric curl was thirty five percent. It's mostly testa. It
Speaker 1: starts doing cylindric curl, and Prismatic was only nineteen percent.
Speaker 1: This year, Pouch is down to thirty five, cylindricil is
Speaker 1: down to sixteen, and Prismatic has rich fifty percent. It's cattle.
Speaker 1: The Prismatic consolidation were going Prismatic. I've seen those batteries.
Speaker 1: I've touched those batteries, and I'm not an engineer, but
Speaker 1: they feel right.
Speaker 2: To feel right, Yeah, yeah, Yeah.
Speaker 1: What we're saying is we're witnessing an incredible growth but
Speaker 1: also the considation of suppliers, chemistries and fum factors.
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, I agree with you, and that means it's very,
Speaker 2: very difficult for new players to actually compete the reality
Speaker 2: is that the Asians are just too far ahead of
Speaker 2: anything we have in North America Europe. So you have
Speaker 2: to team up at them. That's what we have to do.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you have to team up with them. You
Speaker 1: have to team up them. But it's not going to
Speaker 1: be a very located market. It's going to be really
Speaker 1: a high volume, low margins. Yeah, like solar absolutely, which
Speaker 1: is good for us because what's the price now fifty
Speaker 1: dollars killer one hour and it's going to go to
Speaker 1: thirty and this is great for all the use case. Now,
Speaker 1: this is going to kill probably eighty percent of the
Speaker 1: non legium long duration algy storage along the way. But
Speaker 1: you know, the market cannot cope with hundreds of different
Speaker 1: technology and the moment you see consolidation, amouth, you see convergence.
Speaker 1: This is where you've got mass adoption.
Speaker 2: And by the way, let's be really clear, all these
Speaker 2: new technologies are up against eighteen thousand R and D
Speaker 2: staffs in c atl or cattle as you call it.
Speaker 1: Right, eighteen thousand okajah. In conclusion, a few things, we
Speaker 1: had those episodes with Bill Gates one forty three, one
Speaker 1: forty four extremely popular. Have you been contacted by Smell
Speaker 1: or Bill Gates or Breakthrough to correct what we have announced?
Speaker 2: The nobody has come to correct a.
Speaker 1: But I've been invited to sea weeks. That's very good.
Speaker 1: I've been invited to pay ten thousand dollars to go
Speaker 1: in the basement in the booth call wind Meals and
Speaker 1: Alternative Energy, to which I said thanks, but no thanks.
Speaker 1: There's been two articles in d FT over the summer.
Speaker 1: One was about the externary development of solar in Pakistan.
Speaker 1: One of the King of Sala in Pakistan is a
Speaker 1: friend of the show. He has contacted me. I've met
Speaker 1: him in London. His name is Suleiman or Reiman Suleiman.
Speaker 1: You're doing a great job. Thank you so much for
Speaker 1: supporting the show, and congratulations on all the works you're
Speaker 1: doing in Pakistan to put solar on every roof.
Speaker 2: And we'll get him on the show.
Speaker 1: And we will get him on the show. Yes, next year,
Speaker 1: next year, because we are very very busy. Our planning
Speaker 1: is almost full until the end of the year. And
Speaker 1: every day, okay, we receive all those p agency. Would
Speaker 1: you get this guy on the show? Yes, yes, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: no no. But there's one person that is invited on
Speaker 1: the show, and that person is Bill Gates. I'm not
Speaker 1: even interested by Bill. He's just gonna tell his not
Speaker 1: Big Gates. No. The person I'm interested is mister Farras Ahmad,
Speaker 1: and it's one of the top head of energy at Amazon.
Speaker 1: They're doing a lot for the PPA front and the data.
Speaker 1: Mister f A. Mad is welcome on the show to
Speaker 1: explain why he wants to rewrite the Greenhouse Gas potocord.
Speaker 1: He wants to rewrite the ic v CN, he wants
Speaker 1: to rewrite the Article six of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement,
Speaker 1: and probably two European directives because the way Amazon reports
Speaker 1: their emissions is a new system that nobody understands except
Speaker 1: it looks good. Let's see Cherob great, my friend for
Speaker 1: speaking next week. Chairs.
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy.
Speaker 1: Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
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