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<v Speaker 1>With the ron segle and from London and Gerard read

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<v Speaker 1>from Berlin.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Redefining Energy.

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<v Speaker 1>Minutes today Onredefend Energy job. The number is six minutes,

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<v Speaker 1>which is exactly the number of minutes have been talking

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<v Speaker 1>the past six episodes. Because there's just been you, You

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<v Speaker 1>and Michael Barna, I've decided to talk a lot. Now

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<v Speaker 1>can I kick off for the question? Come on, okay?

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<v Speaker 2>How many employees do you think Northfold has, which is

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<v Speaker 2>the biggest battery manufacturer in Europe?

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<v Speaker 1>Oh my god? Thousands, six thousands, Oh my god. So

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about batteries a top of We're going to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about batteries and a lot of other things, but

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<v Speaker 1>mainly about batteries. Let would give you a second question,

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<v Speaker 1>mm hmm.

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<v Speaker 2>How many people do c ATL the biggest BA Manu

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<v Speaker 2>facturer in the world. Haven't Orange?

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<v Speaker 1>Oh? I must be six thousand, eighteen thousand, Oh my god.

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<v Speaker 2>Who's gonna win, Lauren.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the point of having that conversation today. I said,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to talk a lot, so don't interrupt me please.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to remind you what John Wick said. People

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<v Speaker 1>ask me all the time. If I'm back, I think

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<v Speaker 1>I'm back, pledge you back, Okay because it's September. A

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<v Speaker 1>bit of music now.

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<v Speaker 3>Come yeah, man on, you're a bit of an idiot, honest.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay. We're going to talk about by and my theory

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<v Speaker 1>and I want to discuss it with you. Is called

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<v Speaker 1>a great consolidation. It's going to be a consolidation of suppliers.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a consolidation of fum factors and the consolidation in chemistry.

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<v Speaker 1>We follow battery a lot, but I like to pay

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<v Speaker 1>tribute to a lot of young people who are really

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<v Speaker 1>the expert. And we had the Carma Coloire on the show.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to talk about Aaron Waite from the Volta

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<v Speaker 1>Foundation that we have invited later this year, Dom Sug,

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<v Speaker 1>Christopher Chico, Chris Berry, all the team at Benchmark. They

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<v Speaker 1>are remarkable and they have a a shoot called row

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<v Speaker 1>Motion that publish extraordinary research on batteries, and especially a

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<v Speaker 1>young lady called Jola Jug And I can tell you

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<v Speaker 1>a star is bomb because she's absolutely remarkable.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, Leral and this, and I suppose we actually have

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<v Speaker 2>to ask answer one question is why do we keep

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<v Speaker 2>talking about batteries? And I think we both agree that

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<v Speaker 2>we think this is one of the technologies that revolutionizes

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<v Speaker 2>our one is revolutionary at our world, and we just

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<v Speaker 2>ignore it. We don't even think about it.

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<v Speaker 1>Why we do that is because the prices have gone

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<v Speaker 1>down so fast. The adoption rate ivis are developing from

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<v Speaker 1>say fourteen million last year to seventeen million this year,

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<v Speaker 1>so this is unstoppable. But ESS is going twice as fast,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is really going to change totally the way

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<v Speaker 1>the grids are being managed.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely with you one hundred percent, but I'm going to

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<v Speaker 2>let you talk given that you weren't able to talk

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<v Speaker 2>and all.

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<v Speaker 1>This, we're so frustrated. First of all, internal market share.

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<v Speaker 1>I've got the market share for EV's batteries or doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>cover ESS, but it's pretty much the same suppliers. If

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<v Speaker 1>I look at the first half of TOR two four Kettle,

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<v Speaker 1>you talk about Kettle as thirty eight percent of the

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<v Speaker 1>world market. Then BYD sixteen, so just the two of them,

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<v Speaker 1>they're above fifty percent. Then come LG from Korea thirteen percent,

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<v Speaker 1>sk C Alb from China, SDI Panasonic, Ava from China, Gautchan,

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<v Speaker 1>So we have nine company ninety percent of the market.

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<v Speaker 2>And meanwhile, back in Sleepy Europe.

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<v Speaker 1>Where we go, we get Moro in Norway they opened

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<v Speaker 1>their factory five giga what our, which compares to cattle

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<v Speaker 1>next year six hundred giga what Our. But we're very

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<v Speaker 1>happy for morow. Yep, it's a start. And what we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen is an incredible story of what I've called the

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<v Speaker 1>canceled Giga factories in Europe. And I've got the list

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<v Speaker 1>of all those plants has been canceled or postponed Abe Romania,

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<v Speaker 1>acc in Germany, i MTE, British World, far As, this Ino,

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<v Speaker 1>lith Ino, bad ital Vault, Cock Holding, Turkey, Chreissel, Microvast,

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<v Speaker 1>north voltas canceled one plant in Sweden, Poerko and Vault

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<v Speaker 1>in Germany. So certainly it's a bit boring, but I

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<v Speaker 1>mean that list is phenomenal considering the enthusiasm were two

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<v Speaker 1>three years ago. And what does that tell us, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's consolidation. People are just gonna use one of the

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<v Speaker 1>top nine. And you asked the question about north Volt Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know, but from the outside looking in, it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't look great.

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<v Speaker 2>No, Listen, they can't cancel their IPO and the miss

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<v Speaker 2>execute just be really clear enough. The thing we learned

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<v Speaker 2>from Solar as you have to get scale weekly and

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<v Speaker 2>ten years is not getting the scale quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think one of the mistakes, but it's easy

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<v Speaker 1>now to analyze compared to when they launch five years ago,

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<v Speaker 1>is that they get the wrong technology, because what we

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<v Speaker 1>see is that the market is absolutely converging towards LFP,

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<v Speaker 1>LIAMP for Spade, and that NMC is being abandoned. Now

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<v Speaker 1>Nikkel and Cobalt are as cheap as they've been in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty years. But I believe that the market and it's

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<v Speaker 1>the case even for my personal investments, we're all going

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<v Speaker 1>for LFP period.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, since I with last chatter, I got

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<v Speaker 2>a new car, I've got to tel the model, why

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<v Speaker 2>it's got a battery from.

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<v Speaker 1>No BYD BYD and what technology is? Are LFP exactly exactly?

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<v Speaker 1>What is very also interesting? So we talk about the

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<v Speaker 1>consolidation of suppliers, we talk about the consolidation of chemistry.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the consolidation in the foam factor.

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<v Speaker 2>Need you explain to people what that is?

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<v Speaker 1>You've got three form factors. The first one is pouch,

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<v Speaker 1>which you find in the bid blade. How would you

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<v Speaker 1>describe pouch rectangular shape? Yeah, but it's soft cylindricurl, so

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<v Speaker 1>that's kind of easy. It's like your triple A batteries. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and Prismatic and Prismatic is a Cuba is a cube

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<v Speaker 1>of two kilos and theanoes and the ketoes are on

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<v Speaker 1>the top. In two nineteen, Pouch was forty six percent,

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<v Speaker 1>cylindric curl was thirty five percent. It's mostly testa. It

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<v Speaker 1>starts doing cylindric curl, and Prismatic was only nineteen percent.

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<v Speaker 1>This year, Pouch is down to thirty five, cylindricil is

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<v Speaker 1>down to sixteen, and Prismatic has rich fifty percent. It's cattle.

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<v Speaker 1>The Prismatic consolidation were going Prismatic. I've seen those batteries.

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<v Speaker 1>I've touched those batteries, and I'm not an engineer, but

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<v Speaker 1>they feel right.

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<v Speaker 2>To feel right, Yeah, yeah, Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>What we're saying is we're witnessing an incredible growth but

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<v Speaker 1>also the considation of suppliers, chemistries and fum factors.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, listen, I agree with you, and that means it's very,

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<v Speaker 2>very difficult for new players to actually compete the reality

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<v Speaker 2>is that the Asians are just too far ahead of

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<v Speaker 2>anything we have in North America Europe. So you have

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<v Speaker 2>to team up at them. That's what we have to do.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, you have to team up with them. You

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<v Speaker 1>have to team up them. But it's not going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a very located market. It's going to be really

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<v Speaker 1>a high volume, low margins. Yeah, like solar absolutely, which

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<v Speaker 1>is good for us because what's the price now fifty

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<v Speaker 1>dollars killer one hour and it's going to go to

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<v Speaker 1>thirty and this is great for all the use case. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>this is going to kill probably eighty percent of the

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<v Speaker 1>non legium long duration algy storage along the way. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the market cannot cope with hundreds of different

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<v Speaker 1>technology and the moment you see consolidation, amouth, you see convergence.

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<v Speaker 1>This is where you've got mass adoption.

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<v Speaker 2>And by the way, let's be really clear, all these

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<v Speaker 2>new technologies are up against eighteen thousand R and D

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<v Speaker 2>staffs in c atl or cattle as you call it.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, eighteen thousand okajah. In conclusion, a few things, we

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<v Speaker 1>had those episodes with Bill Gates one forty three, one

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<v Speaker 1>forty four extremely popular. Have you been contacted by Smell

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<v Speaker 1>or Bill Gates or Breakthrough to correct what we have announced?

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<v Speaker 2>The nobody has come to correct a.

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<v Speaker 1>But I've been invited to sea weeks. That's very good.

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<v Speaker 1>I've been invited to pay ten thousand dollars to go

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<v Speaker 1>in the basement in the booth call wind Meals and

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<v Speaker 1>Alternative Energy, to which I said thanks, but no thanks.

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<v Speaker 1>There's been two articles in d FT over the summer.

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<v Speaker 1>One was about the externary development of solar in Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the King of Sala in Pakistan is a

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<v Speaker 1>friend of the show. He has contacted me. I've met

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<v Speaker 1>him in London. His name is Suleiman or Reiman Suleiman.

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<v Speaker 1>You're doing a great job. Thank you so much for

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<v Speaker 1>supporting the show, and congratulations on all the works you're

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<v Speaker 1>doing in Pakistan to put solar on every roof.

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<v Speaker 2>And we'll get him on the show.

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<v Speaker 1>And we will get him on the show. Yes, next year,

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<v Speaker 1>next year, because we are very very busy. Our planning

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<v Speaker 1>is almost full until the end of the year. And

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<v Speaker 1>every day, okay, we receive all those p agency. Would

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<v Speaker 1>you get this guy on the show? Yes, yes, no, no, no,

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<v Speaker 1>no no. But there's one person that is invited on

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<v Speaker 1>the show, and that person is Bill Gates. I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>even interested by Bill. He's just gonna tell his not

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<v Speaker 1>Big Gates. No. The person I'm interested is mister Farras Ahmad,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's one of the top head of energy at Amazon.

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<v Speaker 1>They're doing a lot for the PPA front and the data.

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<v Speaker 1>Mister f A. Mad is welcome on the show to

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<v Speaker 1>explain why he wants to rewrite the Greenhouse Gas potocord.

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<v Speaker 1>He wants to rewrite the ic v CN, he wants

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<v Speaker 1>to rewrite the Article six of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement,

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<v Speaker 1>and probably two European directives because the way Amazon reports

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<v Speaker 1>their emissions is a new system that nobody understands except

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<v Speaker 1>it looks good. Let's see Cherob great, my friend for

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<v Speaker 1>speaking next week. Chairs.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

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<v Speaker 1>or the platform of your choice.