Speaker 1: What's up?
Speaker 2: Everybody?
Speaker 3: Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you are new.
We always start this show by being transparent and didn't
do any show yesterday. The things have been going well though.
WNBA playoffs. I think I've hit ten out of twelve,
so we'll try to keep that going here today. Tennis
as Beijing has been a disaster for me, so I
got to clean up the tennis. What else to I
have to recap? NFL was profitable. My best bet on
the Lions was a winner. Not too much else going
on robo so have been I've been making a little
bit of money lately. We do have MLB playoffs here now,
how's everything for you?
Speaker 4: Things are good, Ski. The NFL weekend once again was
tremendous six and one. Closed it out with a five
percent on the Denver team total last night over twenty
six and a half, and as I'm you know, I
jumped at that play specifically because obviously I've been rooting
for the Brics for some fifty years, and it reminded
me when we were off air last week how well
people know their own teams. Like you saw the Chargers
minus six and a half and you're like.
Speaker 2: Hell no.
Speaker 4: I don't get if it is the Giants, even if
they don't have Elik neighbors, hell no. And it worked
out right and for me with the Broncos ever since
bow Knicks became quarterback with Sean Payton, it's their offense
bullies bad defenses, which Cincinnati fits the category, and then
they get stoned by every good defense in the league.
Speaker 2: They just they beat.
Speaker 4: The bad ones and they can't do anything against the
good ones. Last night just another case. I think bo
Nicks had three hundred and fifty three yards passing against
the sorry Cincinnati defense. And now they'll play Philadelphia this
week and they'll probably go back to score thirteen points
because they just can't play offense against good teams. But
it did remind me how well you know if you
follow a team, how well you know it. And NFL
just to get back to that point eighteen and five.
Speaker 2: The last three weeks absolutely good for us.
Speaker 4: So we'll get to the WNBA here because I know
this is a WNBA show, and we'll see if we
can make a little extra tonight.
Speaker 3: It's a money show. We'll talk about whatever's going to
put some money in the pocket. I don't care if
it's table to this, if you got it is, I
want to hear it. But one thing I mentioned too
before you started going forward with the Chargers. You know,
I'm not betting on them playing anything. I mean, I
already don't want to bet on them land points.
Speaker 1: But I'm nervous.
Speaker 3: No Joe aught like Joe at for anybody who doesn't know,
that's like that's like Tom Brady of the offensive line,
like he allows literally no pressure, like zero pressures. You
can't replace that guy, and they're already down Rashaun Slater
from the preseason.
Speaker 1: I'm worried about the offensive line for the Chargers. I'm
not looking. I'm not.
Speaker 3: You won't be seeing my money on them and in
their future, I'll tell you that they're have to show me.
Speaker 2: Robbio.
Speaker 3: All right, let's see a couple couple comments. Shout out
to Duffel. Cole says, long time listener, first time caller,
appreciate you tapping in. We got Mark b Man in
the chat. Casey listening as well. Casey says, w NBA,
CFL cricket. We only want the Moulah, don't sure how
we get it.
Speaker 1: And this Mar says, just watched fees W interview. Wow.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Hey, they're lighting Kathy and they're lighting them up
over there in the W Sell Reeve, Becky Hammond, Stephanie White,
ne FISA, she pretty much did you see it, Robbine,
No or no.
Speaker 4: I have not seen the interview. I saw Cheryl Reeve
get fined for her comments, but heat of the moment,
and she's probably right.
Speaker 3: So to sum it up, she said pretty much like
we got the best league in the world. We have
it was something else, the best something else in the world.
We have the absolute word leadership in the world. So
she's throwing some shots over there. People are not happy.
They want some change in the W. So if you're
if you're into the W, which if you watch the
show you probably are, you may want to check out
that interview. But let's see all we can get paid today.
We do have one game, and it's a big one.
Speaker 1: WNBA Game five.
Speaker 3: In the semifinals at least and before is equivalent to
an NBA Game seven, and for this one, it opened
aces minus seven. I'm seeing pretty much eight everywhere is
eight and a half still out there seven and a
half at a couple of shops, depending what you like.
Make sure you line shop total open one fifty seven
and a half. I'm looking we'll call it one fifty
eight the current consensus. As far as an injury report,
we know everybody who's been out for Indiana, Dantees, Damirs,
Dante's out again for the ass.
Speaker 1: They look to be healthy.
Speaker 3: So Raveno in that last game, I mean, speaking of
interviews Asia, I mean she let it be known. She says,
you know quote she are not not all the way quota,
but pretty much what she said was Lia Boston is
always saying Asia has a special whistle. She said, Lia
shot thirteen free throws tonight. And I mean that goes
back to I mean we talked about it, Robino. Yes, yes,
the Fever all season long.
Speaker 1: They get that good home cooking.
Speaker 3: Like they got more than five players on the court
in those Fever games, and we saw once again they
shot with thirty four free throws compared to the Aces eleven.
Speaker 1: That's a big that's a big part of how they
how they win that game.
Speaker 3: Now it's saying that, you know, I guess before I
break it down too much, I want to ask you,
is that just you know, mostly home cooking.
Speaker 1: Is that are the fever doing.
Speaker 3: Something to allow themselves to get to the free throw
line more efficiently. If I have to think about it,
I would say maybe it's a Leah Boston just being
you know, extremely physical.
Speaker 1: That's that's how they're doing it. But what's your thought
on that?
Speaker 4: Well, in the series overall, Ski, it didn't show up
until that last game. Right, Indiana, for what it's worth,
is plus twenty six in free throw attempts for the series.
They were plus twenty three in that game you just
mentioned it, thirty four to eleven. So it was only
a plus three advantage through three games. And I think
we noted here on the show that because of their
you know, depth shy rotation, I had noticed that they
had gone to more.
Speaker 2: Physical style play inside.
Speaker 4: It seemed to me like a Leah Boston was getting
tougher the series before that got them through. So I
don't expect any plus twenty three free throw differential as
far as attempts goes in this particular game, especially when
you know the other side makes it known. Hey, they
got a little more favorable whistle than we did in
this case, a lot more. Can't take anything away from
Indiana the fact that they're here. Skiing a game five
in the semi finals is ridiculous, to tell you the truth,
but they've done what they had to do. Las Vegas
has found a way to score on this team though.
The last three games of this series for the Aces
ninety points, eighty four points, eighty three points. Their offense
is not sporadic like Indiana's. Indiana has shown US sixty
eight points in one game seventy two points in another game.
They can be contained offensively, and of course it is
because they just don't.
Speaker 2: Have an array of scorers. I would expect Las Vegas
to be.
Speaker 4: Extremely and nothing either team, both teams won't be fully focused.
But I think there's a little chip on the Ace's
shoulder in this game. And I think through four games,
even though it's a two to two tie, to me,
when I go through this whole thing and break it down,
they show to be the better team. And when they've
won in this series, it's been by twelve and thirteen.
So the eight shouldn't be scary here. Know that there's
a lot of in football, we call it backdoor ability,
but I don't know that there's a lot of, you know,
last second three point worries that Indiana could shoot a
three and cover. They've got a couple of players, But
I don't worry about that too much. I think Las
Vegas is probably the right side. Where I came into
a little bit of issue was with the total, just
thinking it's a game five, it's for all the marbles,
and in game sevens in the NBA generally we would
be on under knowing that it would be a physical style.
Speaker 2: It would maybe be.
Speaker 4: A more you take, more seriousness of each possession, not
wanting to commit turnovers, and it kind of slows the
game down. So maybe an underlook, But I think mostly
the Aces are the better team here and it'll show
up tonight in a double digit win.
Speaker 3: Well, so what you're saying and Chip Guy's mission, anybody
else taking second half under if they go way over
in the first have I mean, this will be a
game where I would expect the second half get a
little tighter. If the first half does, it is higher scoring.
B Man says fever number one pace postseason, they run
straight to the hoop and draw fouls. Look at the
Dream series, same thing. Maybe that's part of how they're
getting to that free throw line. You're saying there that
total rob you know, Quincy Eskin over under full game,
that total. The one thing I'll say is like, when
I think about it, the Fever, either team really an
elimination game. We're not going to see them give up
and just you know, they're like that one game the
Fever had it's still stayed under. It was not the
prep Pass game, but the game before it stayed under.
But they were fouling, filing, They were down ten within
the last minute, still filing, filing, filing. We're gonna see
that as long as this game doesn't get out of control.
So that's something that makes me hesitate. As far as
less points in this game, I think the Fever are
going to continue to shoot a lot of threes because
the Aces are trying to force them to shoot threes
and cut off the paint.
Speaker 1: Whether they shoot them well or not, we shall see.
Speaker 3: I think they can and I think that they can
get to the free throw line because what we said
with the Pace getting to the basket, drawing, drawing foules
in transition or just the physical play from Boston down low.
So I do think Fever have figured out how to
put up some of their share of the points.
Speaker 1: The ass.
Speaker 3: I do think they can score as well, you know more,
I don't know more I think about it.
Speaker 1: One.
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe that comment, I mean, I did pull it
up here, let's pull it back up here. Maybe this
comment I don't feel so strong on.
Speaker 1: I mean.
Speaker 3: The second half, like in this elimination game, Like I said,
you know they're going to keep filing. That could mess
up a second half under real quick, So I like
more points in this game than less. Yeah, I like
more points in this game than less. And to what
you said about the Aces being the better team, I
agree with you one thousand percent. Would it be the
better team tonight? I mean, but yes, they had that
seventeen game win streak, but they've also been pretty inconsistent
for other parts of the season.
Speaker 1: So I couldn't.
Speaker 3: I couldn't lay eight with the Aces and feel comfortable
and good about my bet. I just couldn't, even if
I think they're the better team. So it would be
either fever over for me. Ravino Mark wants to look
at that first half only any thoughts from you before
we wrap up this game.
Speaker 4: Well, just real quick. If we're looking for ways that
Indiana stays in the game, I'm just noticing here Ski
that they are plus twenty seven and rebounds that shouldn't
happen against us.
Speaker 2: Fore they gotta take a little more pride.
Speaker 4: And I'm sure he's harping on it for sure, but
the last two games in particular plus thirteen and plus
twelve for the fever on the boards, which just shows
that they've been kind of the tougher team, the more
go and get it type team. You would think Las
Vegas shows that mindset here tonight to close that gap. Boy,
it's tough because and to your point about over real quick,
this is the other thing I want to say. The
odds maker has really baked that into the line, so
to speak, right, because these totals in these games were
all one sixty two, one sixty two, one sixty two
even higher in the first couple of games, and now
we're down to fifty eight and a half. So they've
automatically taken four points off of this total because it's
a game five, simply because of the game five, and
so to your point, and overplay is a so called
value play here. If we look at the results of
these four games, you have a one sixty two or
one seventy three a one fifty eight, which would be
either push your a half shot here and then fifty six.
So they've been all around this number for sure, So
and overplay certainly not out of the question here, all right.
Speaker 1: I think we did a good job on that game.
Speaker 3: Let's just I mean, we're not gonna get too far
into it, but we do have three It might be
playoffs coming up.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go super deep.
Speaker 3: I'll just throw out initial thoughts because I'm not one
who is betting the entire MLB regular season. I'm doing
a little bit of catch up and betting on some
of these numbers and what I'm thinking right now currently.
So it might be playoffs. Oops, yeah, okay, there we go.
So Padres and Cubs. That's probably my least strong opinion.
You know, I'm gonna just throw them all out there
at once, and then you can come back and let
me know before we get out of here. I don't
know how long I can trust Boyd. I do trust Paveta,
I trust the bullpen for the Padres, I think I
might be able to trust Boyd early maybe like like this,
this could be the one where you know it's no runs,
Early and boys starts to give it up later. That's
my initial thought. But I don't have anything strong on
that game. I haven't played yet. I'm gonna try to
look up some stuffhen I get off of here. Other
than that Freed, I want to try to bet on
him first five. I don't want to deal with that
Yankees bullpen and you know what, the Boston bullpen, I
don't want to deal with either. I'm thinking maybe a
first five under there or or maybe a first five
Yankees And for the last game, hundred Green for home
road splits are pretty bad, Lake Snell. I think his
last few starts were pretty good, if I'm not mistaken.
Speaker 1: So I do.
Speaker 3: I didn't watch baseball all season, but I did follow
my hometown Dodgers a little bit. So I want to
bet on the Dodgers some way, shape or form. Maybe
maybe just fade Hunter Green early. Any thoughts on MB
playoffs today, Robo, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Real quick.
Speaker 4: I was going to bet the Pogis, And let me
just preface this by telling everybody watching and that we'll
watch like you. I did not bet Major League Baseball.
I would say after the second week of the season.
I played a little early and then just stopped focused
on the w and focused on the NBA playoffs and
then some Canadian Football League stuff. So for me, it
was a weekend worth of catchup. I was going to
play San Diego, but then I ran into Michael Boyd's
home numbers at Wrigley Field and that stopped me dead
in my tracks. Or Matt Boyd, excuse me, Matt Boyd
at Matt Boyd in Wrigley Field this year twelve and
one with a two five to one ERA seventy nine.
Speaker 2: K's only fourteen walks.
Speaker 4: So you were talking about home road splits for somebody
prior to this.
Speaker 2: These home roads splits are legit. So he's got a.
Speaker 4: Little playoff experience from pitching prior. His playoff numbers were like, oh,
seven seven ERA. So I didn't play Paveta. But I'm
with you on the fact that if you're going to
play the Padres, you want to play full game because
there is a discrepancy. This is the largest discrepancy between
bullpens in the In these opening four series, the Cub's
bullpen is horrendous and the Padre's bullpen is lights out.
So maybe if you're going to play San Diego, you
play him full game. If you're going to play the Cubs,
you might want to get on Boyd and then get
out Yankees and Red Sox. You know, again, Crochet is
an underdog, and we know Croche is one of the
five best pitchers in the American League.
Speaker 2: Not that Max Freed isn't.
Speaker 4: But if you want to just take a price plus price,
you probably want to play Crochet. They are missing a
couple guys, and well they're not missing a couple, they're
missing one. Roman Anthony and Alex Bregman I think is sick,
but he's still going to play tonight. Stayed off of that,
and then of course, I to am a Dodger fan,
would love to be on Blake Snell in some way,
shape or form. For what it's worth, the Dodgers starting
pitching the last three weeks of the season was, I
mean credible, the numbers that that starting rotation put up.
The bullpen failed them in many.
Speaker 2: Instances, But.
Speaker 4: The difference between the playoffs is you really don't have
to use your relievers as relievers. The Dodgers have seven
starters and they're gonna You're gonna see Clayton Kershaw out
of the pen you're gonna see a lot of starting
pitchers from the pen. They got Ory Sacky back and
he looked good as well. So I think the Dodgers
the worries about the bullpen are lessened for me because
they'll use starters out of the pen.
Speaker 1: Fair enough. I like I like this play from Mark
in the chat.
Speaker 3: This is a straight fate of Hunter Green, Like how
I'm thinking of playing right there, first five team total
for the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: I like that play right there.
Speaker 3: I think we did a good enough job here today, Robino,
and my computer is dying anyway, so we're gonna move
it on over.
Speaker 1: To Best Bets. I don't have anything to put up.
Speaker 3: Actually, we're still doing Weekend Warrior a right, so yes,
we can go ahead and put that up there. Just
remind everybody, if you want to be involved with every
football play for the weekend, and Robno just told you
he's been killing it the past three weeks, you can
get every football release for only forty nine dollars.
Speaker 1: So on that note, you know.
Speaker 3: I'll pass it back to you, and maybe if you
want to put some numbers again to you know how
much you're killing it in football. And also if you
have a best bet for the show or anything else
you'd like to promote. We'd love to hear it real quick.
Speaker 4: Just the numbers are off of the NFL the last
three weeks eighteen and five, twenty and five would be
eighty percent. So I'm going to guess that that's about
seventy seven to seventy eight percent off the top of
my head. But it's been great. It was six and
one this week and had a couple of four percent wins,
the five percent win last night, so every five percents,
by the way, this year four and out so far
in any form of football, college or pro.
Speaker 2: So it's been good best bet.
Speaker 4: And again we hate to do this, We hate to
leave it dry in this area, but it's just I
don't have a real good feel, not enough to recommend
as the best bet on the Las Vegas Indiana game five.
Speaker 2: You guys heard my thoughts on it.
Speaker 4: I do think Las Vegas is the better team and
if they win, it'll probably be by more than eight,
but I'm not I don't have any real conviction on
that game, so I'm gonna.
Speaker 2: Let best bets go.
Speaker 4: Because I didn't play any of the nighttime baseball and
we'll get back with it.
Speaker 2: I don't know when do we come back. Can we
come back on Friday, I guess? Or Thursday football?
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, Thursday night football, Thursday night football.
Speaker 4: So we'll get back to best bets then for today,
I'll just leave it empty, all right?
Speaker 1: Fair enough?
Speaker 3: And uh, you know, for myself, I don't like to
get best at. I haven't placed, and like I said,
I still need to think about a couple of these
baseball or you know, do these baseballs I'm looking at.
I do have a five percent up in the W tonight,
and I can't give it to you guys because it's
just not fair. So if you I want to be
involved with me on the W, I hit ten out
of twelve in the playoffs. I have a best bet
up and available for tonight. But yeah, I mean maybe
it's the Dodgers first five ever first five teams total over,
But like I said, I haven't bet. A check wouldn't
feel right making it official best bet for the show. Yeah, oh,
you know, how do we forget? It is five dollars
Tuesday too, right? So oh you got.
Speaker 1: Something up for five dollars Tuesday?
Speaker 4: I do, as a matter of fact, well, no, it's
already gone guys. So you know what, though, remember last
week we talked about this ski. We're now allowed to
put two five dollars plays up. We can put an
advanced football play up, and I actually am in the
middle of the write up, so you will find a
college football play for five dollars. It'll only be available
till midnight Pacific time, because that's when we're mandated to
take these down. But yes, I did have a Tiger
first five inning play as the original five Tuesday bet,
and now I will put a college football playoff, so
you can still get that from me.
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff, you know, we'll wrap it up here.
Speaker 3: I do have an NFL top play up as well
for five dollars Tuesday, and I'm three and ozho so
far this season on those So Vino, it's great doing
the show with you. Appreciate you taking the time to
break the games down with me. Everybody in the chat,
we appreciate you as well. We'll be back for Thursday
night football and then we'll WNBA Finals resume. So until then,
best of luck on all of your action and we
will catch you all later.