Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
Speaker 1: for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
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Speaker 1: I'm sure many of you are aware of the war
Speaker 1: happening with Iran and the strikes that are happening in
Speaker 1: all these things. Right, there's a whole political conversation about that,
Speaker 1: and obviously we don't want to make a light of war,
Speaker 1: but rather the situation is what it is. So we
Speaker 1: have to talk about what is the impact on the markets,
Speaker 1: because we're going to have to see how things pan
Speaker 1: out next week, especially when the markets open up on Monday. Now,
Speaker 1: when I say when the market's opened up on Monday,
Speaker 1: i'm talking about the stock market, right, the trad fire world.
Speaker 1: But crypto guys, very good side. Bitcoin held up despite
Speaker 1: short term volatility. It's still held up. It's trading at
Speaker 1: sixty seven thousand dollars, so we didn't have some major collapse.
Speaker 1: And one of the things that this war situation could
Speaker 1: do for the markets. It could further put fear out there,
Speaker 1: and we've been in extreme fear. But the point is
Speaker 1: it continues to add fuel to the fire from markets
Speaker 1: to rally, because the market always does the opposite of
Speaker 1: the herd and what the mainstream or the masses are thinking.
Speaker 1: We're seeing headlines from the New York Times saying crypto
Speaker 1: is useless and pointless and all these things. Right, so
Speaker 1: you have these conditions that are all there for a
Speaker 1: major relief rally, and that's what we've been waiting for.
Speaker 1: So a good sign that Bitcoin and all coins held
Speaker 1: up for the most part, because we've seen historically that
Speaker 1: certain blackswan events and things along those lines could cause
Speaker 1: markets to collapse. So there's no major panic here, guys.
Speaker 1: For bitcoins. That's a very good sign. And the charts
Speaker 1: are still telling the story here. You know. It's kind
Speaker 1: of like show me the charts and I'll tell you
Speaker 1: the news. Right. Well, Bitcoin is still within that range,
Speaker 1: just chopping in that range, and of course the RSI
Speaker 1: is moving away from the over soul zone but still
Speaker 1: has room to run. The mac D on the daily
Speaker 1: is in control by the bulls on the weekly, we
Speaker 1: are bottoming out. You can see a green candle forming here.
Speaker 1: Even though it's small. The RSI on the weekly is
Speaker 1: starting to curve. It's currently in the over soul zone,
Speaker 1: so it's starting to move away from that. So that's
Speaker 1: a good sign. And here one analyst highlighted the following
Speaker 1: chart saying Bitcoin is playing off the same five day
Speaker 1: RSI regression going back to November twenty eighteen and June
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, so times in the market when we
Speaker 1: saw extreme volatility and some bottoming. So this is a
Speaker 1: very good sign. And again I'm not saying we're going
Speaker 1: to new all time highs. I give that maybe a
Speaker 1: one to two percent chance. You know, as far as probabilities,
Speaker 1: there is maybe a ten percent probability that we dump lower,
Speaker 1: but I believe the higher probability is a relief rally.
Speaker 1: Then we roll over two lower lows. Now is that guaranteed?
Speaker 1: Of course not, guys, right, that's where we're talking probabilities.
Speaker 1: The people who are telling you this is exactly what's
Speaker 1: going to happen, they're lying to because they don't have
Speaker 1: a crystal ball. And if they can see the future,
Speaker 1: please ask them for the winning lottery numbers next week,
Speaker 1: so this is very good. Now, one comparison that people
Speaker 1: are highlighting here and here analyst Benjamin Cohen put together
Speaker 1: a chart is that the Ukraine Russia war, which was
Speaker 1: announced in February twenty twenty two, bitcoin rallied had a
Speaker 1: relief rally before ultimately rolling over. Now what's different this
Speaker 1: time around is that we are extremely over sold. We're
Speaker 1: actually at the levels that we saw with FTX in
Speaker 1: the December of twenty twenty two. So it's not apples
Speaker 1: to apples, but rather how did the market react, you know,
Speaker 1: based on the war announcement and these things happening. And again,
Speaker 1: setup is there for a relief rally, and we've been
Speaker 1: talking about a move to potentially eighty to eighty five.
Speaker 1: Possibly it overshoots, goes to the nineties. Some people are
Speaker 1: saying one hundred and five, then rerollover. Now, some other
Speaker 1: supporting metrics for this thesis is that USDT dominance, which
Speaker 1: has been on the rise obviously since the market has
Speaker 1: been down, staple coin liquidity has been rising, that is
Speaker 1: in the overbought zone, so it looks like it's on
Speaker 1: the verge of rolling over. And of course that liquidity
Speaker 1: makes its way into the market, So again you have
Speaker 1: some supporting data points here. And another factor is that
Speaker 1: bitcoin whales have been buying it. And for the first
Speaker 1: time in a long time, retail wallets have been dumping
Speaker 1: and the bitcoin whales are accumulating. Now it's not anything
Speaker 1: to call home about. We want to see more of
Speaker 1: a disparity between these two because they're still closely aligned
Speaker 1: here as far as the degree of separation, so we
Speaker 1: want to see more and more of it. But I
Speaker 1: think again, guys, all the factors that we want to see,
Speaker 1: they are in place before. A relief rally is certainly
Speaker 1: showing us a high probability, and even many different charts,
Speaker 1: even like the bitcoin rainbow charts, is showing that we
Speaker 1: are in the dolo cost average zone. So all these things,
Speaker 1: historical metrics and much more are just screaming some sort
Speaker 1: of local bottom here. A relief rally is due because
Speaker 1: the masses the mainstream are in fear. Whether it be
Speaker 1: because the prices are down or macro factors like the
Speaker 1: Iran war, all these things are setting up for a reversal, right,
Speaker 1: a counter trend move. So let's be patient and let's
Speaker 1: see what the month of March brings us as far
Speaker 1: as that major move. I love the chart that crypto
Speaker 1: currently put together where he outlined three major bitcoin scenarios
Speaker 1: saying prepare for multiple outcomes. So his base case is
Speaker 1: that this is a shallow bear market, so we're not
Speaker 1: going to the fifty k's or the forty k's, right,
Speaker 1: but rather the sixty k's is the bottom. And there's
Speaker 1: obviously tons of metrics to support that, such as extreme
Speaker 1: fear touch such as the RSI touching levels that we've
Speaker 1: seen in previous beer market bottoms. So I'm in agreement
Speaker 1: with that, you know. I think it's a shallow bear
Speaker 1: with a relief rally before we go down and test
Speaker 1: some lows, but not necessarily breaking sixty K. The other
Speaker 1: one is a normal beer market where we continue to
Speaker 1: go down and we go touch like thirty eight k
Speaker 1: or forty k, and then the low is in is
Speaker 1: what he's saying. But he's saying this is unlikely where
Speaker 1: this is the low and we start climbing to higher highs.
Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to happen. I think even
Speaker 1: if we don't go below sixty k or whatever it is,
Speaker 1: we still chop sideways for a while. So again you
Speaker 1: got to look at multiple scenarios because we don't have
Speaker 1: a crystal ball, and we'll see how the market plays out,
Speaker 1: but we want to be educated about all these things. Now.
Speaker 1: Another factor here, highlighted by Matthew Hyland, is that all
Speaker 1: Coin Dominance monthly has broken out, flashing signals not seen
Speaker 1: since June twenty twenty. So the all coin market so depleted, right,
Speaker 1: which really hurts? Right, Yeah, I mean I look at my portfolio,
Speaker 1: I'm like, oh, that's brutal. But you know, I tend
Speaker 1: not to look at my porfolo too much because it's
Speaker 1: too depressing. But anyway, this is a very good sign
Speaker 1: that it's breaking out. The MACD has slipped green, so
Speaker 1: the bulls are in control. So the trend lines that
Speaker 1: were used to analyze this shows a breakout, so all
Speaker 1: in due time. Another macro factor, which I'm sure many
Speaker 1: of you saw, is that the ISM specifically for Chicago
Speaker 1: saw a move upward, a breakout upward. And we're waiting
Speaker 1: for the full ISM data, which is the manufacturing data
Speaker 1: on Monday, and if that follows that trend, again, just
Speaker 1: more data points, more factors, right, that are piling up here,
Speaker 1: setting the stage for a relief rally. So we're gonna
Speaker 1: have to be patient here, guys. And you know, our
Speaker 1: hope is that Bitcoin goes as high as possible, even
Speaker 1: though it's not going to new all the time highs,
Speaker 1: so that that liquidity hits the all coins and we
Speaker 1: see somebody's alt rally, at which point I'm going to
Speaker 1: take some small profits. I'm not in a position where
Speaker 1: I absolutely need the money and that type of thing,
Speaker 1: so I'll take some profits, I'll bitcoin some of the
Speaker 1: all coins, and then I'm going to look to continue
Speaker 1: to accumulate and wait for the next bull market, you know,
Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven into twenty twenty eight. So this is where, guys,
Speaker 1: we absolutely absolutely have to be patient, and you've got
Speaker 1: to check your emotions and have the macro view. I
Speaker 1: know many of us were disappointed with the last bull market.
Speaker 1: I certainly was, but this is how it goes. And
Speaker 1: one of the important things to keep in mind is
Speaker 1: we are seeing adoption like never before. We're at the
Speaker 1: cusp of getting crypto market structure legislation, and I think
Speaker 1: as these on rams and infrastructure is being set up
Speaker 1: by trad fi and then you get the legislation. It's
Speaker 1: going to allow trillions to come into this market. So
Speaker 1: the valuations of these blockchains and their native tokens, they're
Speaker 1: going to skyrocket, but we got to be patient now, folks.
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Speaker 1: would be in the description. Folks, we continue to see
Speaker 1: that on LinkedIn. These major banks are hiring crypto people.
Speaker 1: So it's part of the infrastructure build out. And despite
Speaker 1: the banks pushing back on stable cord legislation, they're all in. Guys.
Speaker 1: They're all building, looking to launch crypto trading, launch their
Speaker 1: own stable coins, tokenization custody. You know, yesterday we talked
Speaker 1: about Morgan Stanley filing with the OCC to custody crypto,
Speaker 1: Sofi Bank opening up Solana deposits, and Barclay's Bank, which
Speaker 1: is a UK bank. They are looking to build some
Speaker 1: sort of blockchain for payments and much more so, these
Speaker 1: banks are all in. So here's an example. Goldman Sachs
Speaker 1: is hiring someone for equity research large banks, brokers and crypto.
Speaker 1: In addition, Jeffries is looking to have a equity research
Speaker 1: associate crypto and digital assets. So if you're on LinkedIn,
Speaker 1: go check it out, guys, go see it for yourself.
Speaker 1: They're building out their divisions, they're hiring the talent and
Speaker 1: they're getting ready to integrate the blockchain technology and crypto
Speaker 1: as much as possible. So this is very very bullish news. Okay,
Speaker 1: now this is interesting. Eleven US senators request federal probe
Speaker 1: into Binance's sanctions compliance. Now there's a lot of drama
Speaker 1: with Binance because of the Trump administration, Caz getting pardoned
Speaker 1: and much more so. Some politics involved here, But I
Speaker 1: don't know where this leads. Look, Brinnance already went through this,
Speaker 1: you know where they paid their fine and all that.
Speaker 1: Sez went to jail and all those things. So I
Speaker 1: don't know where this leads. I don't know if this
Speaker 1: is some posturing politically. But in a letter on Friday
Speaker 1: to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Attorney General Pam Bondi,
Speaker 1: the lawmakers urged a prompt, comprehensive review of the exchange's
Speaker 1: compliance controls and its adherents to settle agreements reached in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. The senators pointed to allegations that approximately
Speaker 1: one point seven billion dollars in digital assets flowed through
Speaker 1: Binance to Iranian entities linked to terrorism, including groups can I,
Speaker 1: to the Hutus and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpse. So again
Speaker 1: I don't know where this goes. I don't know if
Speaker 1: this is some political posturing and then you know, obviously
Speaker 1: you throw in the war that's happening. So we shall see.
Speaker 1: But just something you guys should be aware of. Final
Speaker 1: news item Ethereum smart accounts are finally coming within a year,
Speaker 1: says Vitallic Booterm. So the Etheroreum Foundation and developers are
Speaker 1: certainly looking to make some big upgrades to EAT to
Speaker 1: continue its usability. So Ethereum account abstraction or smart accounts
Speaker 1: will be shipped with the Hagoda upgrade within a year.
Speaker 1: Of Metallic booteran set on Saturday, we have been talking
Speaker 1: about account abstraction ever since early twenty sixteen. He added
Speaker 1: that now we finally have EIP eight one four one
Speaker 1: and omnibus that wraps up and solves every remaining problem
Speaker 1: that account abstraction was intended to address, plus more and
Speaker 1: is slated to deploy this year. He said, Finally, after
Speaker 1: a decade of research and refinement of these techniques, this
Speaker 1: all looks possible to make within a year via the
Speaker 1: Goota fork. So guys, many of you know I hold
Speaker 1: Ethan my portfolio. It is getting incredible adoption by institutions,
Speaker 1: and recently we heard about you know, Vitalics saying that, look,
Speaker 1: L twos are not as important. We want to continue
Speaker 1: to build out the layer one of E theorem and
Speaker 1: looks I don't know how that fares for somebody's L twos.
Speaker 1: I think there's too many L two's out there, but
Speaker 1: that's okay. This is the free market, and eventually there
Speaker 1: might be some consolidation and some may not work out,
Speaker 1: but there will be L twos. I think that exists,
Speaker 1: but just not the amount that we're seeing today. But ETH,
Speaker 1: I believe is going to be one of the winners
Speaker 1: coming out of this technology. And I think it's going
Speaker 1: to continue to do well, and I'm betting on it
Speaker 1: and I'm staking as well, and I hold a good
Speaker 1: amount of ETH token, so looking forward to it hitting
Speaker 1: new all time highs in the next ball market. Anyway, folks,
Speaker 1: that's the news. Let me know what you think. Leave
Speaker 1: your thoughts and comments below, hit the thumbs up button,
Speaker 1: and guys, be sure to subscribe to my free email newsletter.
Speaker 1: I'll be putting on a write up on Monday. You
Speaker 1: don't want to miss it, especially after the big Macro
Speaker 1: news with Iran and all these things and what the
Speaker 1: charts are doing. I held off on writing up a
Speaker 1: report yesterday just because of the news. I'm like, you
Speaker 1: know what, let the dust settle and let's see how
Speaker 1: the market's open on Monday, and then we can, you know,
Speaker 1: go from there. So make sure you subscribe. It's one
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Speaker 1: to know about crypto. Knowledge is power to expand your knowledge.
Speaker 1: And all the links would be in a description. Thank
Speaker 1: you so much for tuning in, folks. I appreciate you all,
Speaker 1: and I'll talk to you all later