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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Monday. It's time for

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total Bases. I've got the boys with me. Brian Leonard, Tokyo,

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Brandon Hope. Everyone had a great weekend and we even

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day baseball today on a Monday. Always love to see it.

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It's something that listen. I feel like Mondays and Fridays

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should always have a day game. You can, you can

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wrap around in series and play a day game on

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a Monday, and it's inexcusable that someone's not playing day

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base while on a Friday. It's nice when the Cubs

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do it. And Brian Leonard, the Cubs are gonna grace

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us with a day game again today and it happens

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to be one of the biggest games of the day.

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A doubleheader at Wrigley. Brewers Cubs, huge doubleheader. Really, you know,

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in the context of the NL Central, the Brewers finally

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lose one yesterday that I thought they stole at the

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end and then they get walked off. Now they turn around,

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they're going to Wrigley, so let's talk about the doubleheader.

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This is a great place to start. I'm just rambling

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a little bit as we get people into the live broadcast,

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but yeah, let's start there, Brewers Cubs. It looks like

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the early pitching matchup is the one that's sort of announced.

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It's gonna be Horton and Peralta and I and I

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have a couple of thoughts on what we might see later,

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So let's start with game one, Brewers Cubs. Are you

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getting involved in this series? And also I love your

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hat that is the Las Vegas Aviators that they do

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this little copa diversion. I think it's like Latin America

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or Mexican type thing, and that's a great hat, so

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welcome in, and yours is two TV as always.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's called the player is what they

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pay when they play these games, but it's I don't

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like the Aviators, and originally it looks like an ant

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to me, so I don't.

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Speaker 1: Want to So the LV is kind of cool though,

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Brian that that Yeah.

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Speaker 2: That's okay, But I could have got any hat that

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looks like that down on the strip for a dollar

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ninety nine or something. Anyway, I do want to point

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out that I had to comment the other day in

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in the or the yeah, the YouTube replay, saying that

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they thought at this this one person thought that it

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was a waste of time for me to go through

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with the numbers earlier before we get into the handicapping.

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He was more worried. He preferred me to go off

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the top of my head. I've been thinking about this

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for a while because everybody knows what the eras of

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these things are and everything. I was just trying to

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set it up a little bit. So if it's if

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it's important, where where there's some value in that, I

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will do it. But otherwise I'm gonna try to riff

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off the top of my head a little bit longer

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or a little bit more, and maybe the show will

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go a little bit shorter because of that. We maybe

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we can fit some more games in. So let me

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let me just try that this week and see how

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it goes. I did. I didn't give it to clients yesterday,

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but I did bet on Cincinnati against Milwaukee. And the

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reason why was I thought Milwaukee they'd set the record

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with the fourteenth straight or whatever it was, and they

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had this huge double header coming up today, so I thought,

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of any importance that game yesterday was the least important

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that they would have. They've already set the record, and

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they had to set themselves up for this double hitter

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here against the Cubs, which is more much more important

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for the Cubs than it is for Milwaukee because Milwaukee

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has an eight game lead on them and it went

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both ways. Milwaukee doesn't even know how to lose where

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it comes back and the Reds end up winning an

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extra innings. So I got that victory. Now that's out

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of the way. Now they can concentrate here on the Cubs,

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Paroalta and Horton. Current line here is basically the Cubs

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one twenty five and the total is about eight. Some

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Milwaukee rested a few other guys yesterday. They didn't rest everybody. Obviously,

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it's tough to rest everybody when you've only got twenty

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five twenty six guys on the team, twenty six now

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twenty seven if you have a double header, which they'll

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have today. But uh, I've been more impressed by Parolta

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this year than Horton. Horton's got pretty good numbers, but

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his expecting numbers aren't as good, and if you take

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a look at his stack gass page, he's getting more

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lucky than anything. He's done a nice job, no doubt

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about it, for the Cubs. But from a Stanley or

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sorry pitcher standpoint, I prefer Parolta here, but I understand

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why the Cubs are a slave favorite. If most people

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take a look at these two teams, if either one

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of them are on a big winning streak, they would

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say the Cubs are probably the better team. Maybe they are,

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maybe they're not. But the line seems fair to me

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here with Horton in the one twenty five range. But

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because they need the game morals and Milwaukee does, I

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will pass on it. But they do have two games today,

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the second part of the doubleheader. At this point, it's

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undecided on both sides.

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Speaker 1: So I know it's it's gonna be Chad Patrick for

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the Brewers. I don't know exactly who the Cubs are

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gonna use, but I know it's Patrick for the Brewers.

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Speaker 2: That's the thing with the Brewers is there's so low

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to a starting pitching. They've got guys that should be

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up in the majors that aren't right now, and so

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I'm not concerned at all about the starting pitching for

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the Brewers here. The need is there for the Cubs

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the Cups. Cubs get swept in the series somehow, their

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season is over. If they lose three out of four,

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if they won't win the division. Probably we've got, you know,

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less than forty games left in the seasons, so these

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are important games. I I'm gonna pass on this.

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Speaker 1: The Cubs are one. A chief Cub on Twitter, who

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is a Cub season ticket holder here to talk Cubs baseball,

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says it's very likely Jamison ty On for Game two

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for the Cubs. And there's another beat writer MLB guy

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that is confirming that that says Tyn will be the

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starter for Game two. So go ahead, TV. What do

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you think about that?

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Speaker 3: Generally? I think most professional sports betters or regular sports

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betters would say they generally stay away from a game

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two of a doubleheader. There's reasons why that the lineup's

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not announced until after the first game. You don't know

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if their best hitter will get injured in the first game.

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You don't know how many bullpen pitchers they're gonna use

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in game one, So there's a lot of X factors

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for betting a game two. So obviously I'm gonna stay

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away from Game two Game one. Before I get to it, guys,

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I have my MLB play out for today already. I'm

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sure these guys are gonna have something up as well.

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We always put free plays up on our page, so

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see that ticker down there. You can check our pages

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out at wager Talk. I have my picture projection PDF

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up downloadable for free as well, so go grab that

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and I'm gonna use that PDF in this cap. I

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like the Brewers here, and the reason I like the

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Brewers is because Chicago's bats are a little cold right

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now in current form. I got them ranked twenty. That's

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not a little cold, that's ice cold. Best hitters on

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Chicago's team Horner and and Suzuki. I know they have

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a couple of other ones, but neither one of those

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guys bat well against Parlta throughout his career if you

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look at So this is what's good about the numbers

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that I put out there. I put out each pitcher

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how they perform against the batter, the the batters they're facing,

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and I project their outs and their strikeouts. So Peralta,

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he's got a one to sixty five batting average against

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versus these batters in a five ninety six OPS. Anything

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under seven fifty, as I've said before, I think is good.

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So given the fact that the Cubs are in a

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little bit of a quagmire with their bats there. I

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don't see them scoring a lot in this game, which

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makes me think that Milwaukee might might avenge their loss

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from last night. Perhaps t D.

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Speaker 1: I'm very much in agreement with you the fact that

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you're probably getting the Brewers at plus money in both

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games in this doubleheader. I would only probably look to

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find a place to bet the Brewers, and it may

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be game two Patrick first tie on, and I'll just

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talk about generally why I think the Brewers are value here. Okay,

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So Brian, as he said yesterday, they were always gonna

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lose one. You know, they rested a couple of guys yesterday.

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I think they brought in was it Anderson that they

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brought in someone to close the game that they normally

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would not have brought in to close the game. I

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don't think they expected to be up in the ninth

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inning the way they were, kind of like, you know,

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out of nowhere, taking the lead like that. So again,

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I just think yesterday was more of a not a

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throwaway game, but it was just like, hey, if we win,

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we win, that's great. If not, we have an eight

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game lead in the division. I also don't think, like, listen,

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this is a five game series, so we're playing to

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today and it's Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, So like, yeah, theoretically,

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the Cubs, I mean, let's say the Cubs were to

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pull off a five game they'd be back in the

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division race. But I don't even think the Cubs are

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thinking that that's a possibility. I think the Cubs at

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this point are battling it out for the wild card.

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So it's like, but I do think odds makers and

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betters look at that a little bit and they're like,

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oh my god, this is so important for the Cubs.

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It's a must win. So let's juice the the let's

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bake that into the number, right, Let's make it minus

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one twenty six on the Cubs instead of minus one

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ten where it probably should be. And I think you're

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gonna see that in both matchups. Now. I haven't even

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seen a line for Game two, Like I haven't seen

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a price for Game two. I'm assuming it's gonna be

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similar to the price for Game one, because I don't

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think the books are gonna put like if it's patrick

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and tie on which it is at this point, I

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think we can pretty much say that that's what it is.

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And the Game one line with Horton and Peralta is

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like what Cubs minus one twenty five. I think right

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now minus won twenty six. I think you're gonna get

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a similar line in Game two. So you give me

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eighteen innings of Brewers against Cubs, and I'll go back

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to what Tokyo Brandon said. The Cubs are not They're

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not just not hitting right now. This has been going

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on for a while. I mean they were, they just are.

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They haven't been hitting for like a month. And you know,

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you even look at that Pirates series. I talked about

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the Pirates on Friday. We cashed nice four percenter, which

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I gave out on the show on Friday with the Pirates.

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Cubs didn't hit in that game. They didn't hit all series.

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And it's not like they face schemes, right. I think

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he's pitching today. We'll talk about that one in a second.

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The Cubs managed two runs in a loss on Friday,

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the three to one win. On Saturday, they scored two

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in the eighth when the Pirates finally ran out of relievers,

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and then yesterday four runs on six hits. Like this

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team's not hitting at all. Now, could the Brewers go on,

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Could the Brewers maybe not have the best series here

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because they just came off this crazy win streak. Yeah,

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I guess so. But if we're just looking at this

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doubleheader and you're gonna give me Brewers plus money in

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both games, I don't think they lose both of these games.

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So again, I don't I don't know exactly how I

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want to bet it. I don't know if I want

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to like necessarily play against the Cubs in game one.

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But let's say the Cubs win another close game in

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game one. Chad Patricks like the perfect twenty seventh man.

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He knows his role in the organization. I just think that,

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like he's going to be totally fine, knowing he's gonna

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come up, start and probably go back down. He pretty

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much always gives you the same solid effort. I think

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Brewers in game two is a look here, especially if

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the Cubs win a close one in Game one. All right,

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let's let's move let's move on. Let's talk about here's one.

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Mark Mars. First of all, I gotta pull this comment

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up Premium Picks. Oh one, since I feel like I'm

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at a zoo. I'm watching three goats that that is

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very kind of you, and that's also very funny. Thank

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you for uh, you know, tuning in on a daily basis.

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Also TV, I got a five percent play up. I

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probably should promote that because I will definitely get scolded

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if I have a five percent center and don't come

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on here and let you guys know. So, it's been

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a really good baseball run for me, an overall run,

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and five percenter is up, So I want to get

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that out there and now go back to Mark Martin

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because he says, Angels team total is what I played earlier.

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It's plus money. Brian Leonard the Reds to win that

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00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,360
game yesterday. I believe they used all three relievers that

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they used on Saturday to close that game out. I

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think Pegan Ashcraft and Santien Saint Tillan Santien, I don't know, anyway,

242
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I believe all three pitched on Saturday as well. So

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Mark Martin says Angels team total and it's plus money

244
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even before I dig into it. That makes a lot

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of sense because the Reds bullpen isn't great as it is.

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Are you seeing it the same way?

247
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Speaker 2: Yeah, Pagan Centillion, Ashcraft all pitched and Barlow pitched two

248
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in the last three days. That leaves them with suitor

249
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may kind of like May a little bit though, a

250
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suitor May Mal, who's who's been successful in Phillips. So yeah,

251
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they're going to be a little shortthaded in this game.

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The let me give you the current line. We've got

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Singer going against Medros, Medros be league making a second start,

254
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I think for the Angels, Cincinnati comes in about a

255
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one ten, one fifteen favorite total of nine to the

256
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over since the coming off that big comfort behind win

257
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and it has to travel across the country to face

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the Angels, a team that has been really up and

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down all season long. If you take a look at

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the leaderboard for the last two weeks in the WRC plus,

261
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the Angels are hitting pretty well. They attacked at one

262
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on nine and Cincinnati's down to seventy eight. And considering

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Cincinnati had just played some games at home, which is

264
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a good hitter's ballpark, tells you that Cincinna is not

265
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hitting well right now. From a starting pitcher's standpoint, Singer

266
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has been up and down, started the really well struggled

267
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as of late, but it's come on. I think I

268
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think the Angels have a good chance to score runs.

269
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We're looking at a total of nine. Let me get

270
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a quick look at that team total here. The team

271
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total is four and a half, about even money or

272
00:14:22,799 --> 00:14:26,039
plus one ten for cincinnat I got scored five, Scott,

273
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,440
it's gotta score five runs against the Cincinnati team. It

274
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all comes down to how long Singer can go in

275
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this one. Let's see his last few starts here, see

276
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how long he's been going. And of course that's not

277
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showing up on my computer. Okay, so yeah, I understand it.

278
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I kind of like what we're talking about here in

279
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a high scoring game. I do want to point out

280
00:14:54,279 --> 00:14:56,120
in the Cubs game, the wins blowing in a little bit,

281
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but both of those guys are expectedly raised about full

282
00:15:00,559 --> 00:15:06,879
run higher than there. They're actually ra so slightly and

283
00:15:06,919 --> 00:15:10,120
slightly to the over in that game we were talking about,

284
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But this one's slightly in with the Angels. But other

285
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than extension sugar stakes below the gaverage and everything. So

286
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a lot of times you'll get guys who are new

287
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to the league or an unknown picture, and nobody wants

288
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to back them. I wouldn't mind backing them here. I

289
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think the Angels have a little bit of value, and

290
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I wouldn't argue with the team total.

291
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Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian's a nice guy, he said. At the beginning

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of the show, people were saying stuff about his numbers.

293
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I'm not as nice as Brian. So you guys can

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if you don't like the way I'm analyzing games, and

295
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you know, mute, mute while I'm talking, because I'm not

296
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changing anything for anyone. So this is our show and

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this is how we're doing it. Too bad. So you

298
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guys are putting some really funny comments. Now some people

299
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are writing in Japanese. That's funny. I don't have much

300
00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:07,639
of a read on the manderoskuy so I don't really

301
00:16:07,799 --> 00:16:09,720
have a big read on him. So, but he can't

302
00:16:09,759 --> 00:16:11,440
be better than the singer in my opinion.

303
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Speaker 2: Maybe he is.

304
00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:15,919
Speaker 3: I don't know, but he's unproven. There's no doubt about that.

305
00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:21,440
We've got two really bad bullpens. Cincinnati's bullpen in current form,

306
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I got him ranked twenty fifth. That's bad. Angel's not

307
00:16:25,559 --> 00:16:28,120
much better at twenty first. We got two bad bullpens,

308
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,320
and we got two lineups that are actually hitting quite

309
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,399
well right now. So if anything, I would agree with

310
00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,639
Brian and saying over in this one, I'm probably not

311
00:16:36,639 --> 00:16:39,519
gonna play it because there's too many X factors. And

312
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,000
also one thing that kind of scares me. If you

313
00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:46,519
download my picture projections at my page at wager talk

314
00:16:46,559 --> 00:16:49,879
dot com, you'll see that Singer has a two nineteen

315
00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,759
average against versus these batteries, which kind of scares me

316
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,080
a little bit. But just because he's done that in

317
00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,039
the past doesn't mean he's gonna do that every game.

318
00:16:58,559 --> 00:17:01,320
That's why, you know, nothing is one hundred percent lock,

319
00:17:01,759 --> 00:17:05,960
and that's why we lose bets sometimes. But if anything,

320
00:17:06,079 --> 00:17:12,720
I don't know, avoid Singer and maybe take the Cincinnati

321
00:17:12,759 --> 00:17:15,839
team total over or even the game total over. Maybe

322
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,680
I won't play it. There's just too many maybees for me.

323
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:24,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, game total over certainly makes sense. We talked about

324
00:17:24,319 --> 00:17:27,640
the Reds bullpenish, you know, sort of usage. I was

325
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,519
on the Angels yesterday. That was an interesting game, to

326
00:17:31,519 --> 00:17:34,319
say the least. I felt like they blew that lead

327
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,680
for me twice and I was about to take a loss,

328
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,519
and then Kenley Jansen wiggled out of a jam in

329
00:17:39,559 --> 00:17:41,920
the ninth. Then the Angels put up six runs in

330
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,319
the tenth inning for an eleven to five extra innings win.

331
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,039
So we'll start there. Kenley Jansen through twenty eight pitches,

332
00:17:49,079 --> 00:17:51,880
He's not going to pitch today. That was twenty eight pitches,

333
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,799
and every one of them was a sweat, Like every

334
00:17:54,839 --> 00:17:56,880
one of those pitches, because right off the bat it

335
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:58,880
was like first I think he gave up like a

336
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:00,920
leadoff double or something like. Right off the bat it

337
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,839
was an issue, and so he really worked hard. I'd

338
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,839
be shocked if he's out there again today. So again

339
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,000
you have boot bullpen issue on bullpen usage on both sides.

340
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:14,039
As Brian said, the Angels have hit I really want.

341
00:18:14,279 --> 00:18:17,000
I thought I was gonna tell I'm actually not totally

342
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:20,079
against taking the reds. As I've talked about on the

343
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:21,960
show a couple of times, like Brady Singer is a

344
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,039
guy that I've probably been higher on than the market.

345
00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:28,319
He started off really good. He then was awful for

346
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,880
a stretch, and now we're I think we're seeing Brady

347
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,359
Singer sort of you know, if we're looking at his

348
00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:37,200
roller coaster type season. He's on one of his inclines

349
00:18:37,279 --> 00:18:40,880
right now. Last time out, six shutout innings against the Phillies,

350
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:44,000
six strikeouts, no walks, two starts to go against the Braves,

351
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:48,720
six scoreless, ten strikeouts, one walk, and then that's start.

352
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,599
Before that, he pitched into the eighth inning against the

353
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:53,720
Raves and at eight strikeouts. So I don't know how

354
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,960
long it's gonna last because we've seen him go the

355
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,440
other way at times. But right now, Singers is on

356
00:18:59,559 --> 00:19:02,119
one of his runs of good form and I don't

357
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,079
really want to bet against that now. Madeiros is someone

358
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,720
I've I've watched pitch quite a bit. Uh, He's been

359
00:19:07,759 --> 00:19:10,359
at Triple A Salt Lake for the majority of the

360
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,000
past couple of seasons. He's still a younger guy, he's

361
00:19:13,039 --> 00:19:15,359
only like twenty four, but he's been at Triple A

362
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:19,319
for a while. Like he you know. I So this

363
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,640
is just eye test, This is just watching him pitch

364
00:19:22,599 --> 00:19:26,440
like he his stuff doesn't jump off the page. Like

365
00:19:26,519 --> 00:19:29,640
let's say, you know, let's say like watching Nolan MacLean

366
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,440
pitch at Triple A, which I got to see in

367
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,559
person a few times here, I could have I knew

368
00:19:34,559 --> 00:19:36,359
he was gonna look good. I didn't know. I didn't

369
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:38,559
bet it, but like that's someone where you watch him

370
00:19:38,559 --> 00:19:40,559
pitch at Triple A and you're like, yeah, this guy's

371
00:19:40,559 --> 00:19:42,920
probably gonna be pretty freaking good. Like and I'm and

372
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,240
it's one start, but I'm just saying you can you

373
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,680
can see it when you're watching him at Triple A.

374
00:19:48,279 --> 00:19:50,880
Madeiro's It's like I've always kind of sort of rated

375
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,400
him as like a very average sort of Triple A starter.

376
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,279
Went back and looked at some of his numbers. It

377
00:19:57,319 --> 00:19:59,720
was very like not surprised, but it kind of like

378
00:20:00,799 --> 00:20:02,920
it kind of validated I guess the next point on me.

379
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,240
You know, he's got a good era, but some of

380
00:20:05,279 --> 00:20:08,200
the other stuff, like the whip is very high. You know,

381
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,000
he had a good month last month, but his whip

382
00:20:10,079 --> 00:20:12,359
was one five to five, batting average against was like

383
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:17,039
two forty seven. So I just I don't know if

384
00:20:17,039 --> 00:20:19,559
he's going to be like a great MLB pitcher. He

385
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,599
might be a guy that stays around for a while.

386
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:23,920
That can you know that, because he he can navigate

387
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,400
a start at Triple A. He's been doing it for

388
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,200
a couple of seasons, but now throw him against the

389
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,599
Reds lineup. Going off of memory here, Brian, I can't

390
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,640
remember who he pitched against last but I think he

391
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,680
went like three or four innings and wasn't anything special,

392
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:42,319
so kind I want to say again, go ahead. I'm

393
00:20:42,319 --> 00:20:44,079
just saying, like, if I look at the two starters,

394
00:20:44,079 --> 00:20:47,480
I feel like the upside is Singer continuing to pitch well,

395
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,559
because we know when Singer gets in a little groove,

396
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:51,960
he can be very good. Like if you go back

397
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,200
to the beginning of the season, they talked about his

398
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,160
pitch mix and in updating that and he had a

399
00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,000
great month of April struggled, but it feels like he's

400
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,160
back in that form right now, especially with the increase

401
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,519
swing and missed from the strikeout. So I just think

402
00:21:05,519 --> 00:21:08,359
there's so much more upside to the Reds here. And

403
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,079
I really do think the Reds are the better of

404
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,599
these two teams. Like if you're just saying who's the

405
00:21:12,599 --> 00:21:16,759
better team to me, no brainer, the Reds. And they

406
00:21:16,799 --> 00:21:19,039
have some of the same issues with the bullpen. Reds

407
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,480
is Like, So, because I have a five percent around

408
00:21:21,519 --> 00:21:24,319
and I'll use this to promo myself again one more time,

409
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,319
five percent play, I am gonna probably give anything else

410
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,279
I play today for free. The Reds is on that list. Actually, Brian,

411
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,279
I'm gonna put that in the parlor. Reds is gonna

412
00:21:33,279 --> 00:21:35,759
be my parlay. So we'll go Reds money line in

413
00:21:35,799 --> 00:21:38,440
the parlor. I gotta sit here and think about the

414
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,359
bullpens for a second. But you made a point about it.

415
00:21:41,599 --> 00:21:44,160
Is it May that's available. Who's the one you said

416
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:45,000
available that you may?

417
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, May is the one I think is if they're

418
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,359
gonna have to close a game, he's He's probably the

419
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,720
guys gonna do it. We're looking at about a one

420
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,839
twelve right now here on Cincinnati.

421
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, well we'll take that. And like you said, like

422
00:21:59,279 --> 00:22:02,720
you know, they did use Pegan, Santillon and Ashpath, but

423
00:22:02,799 --> 00:22:05,480
the Reds bullpen is not really their strength and it's

424
00:22:05,519 --> 00:22:07,799
not like they're like they have like these amazing leverage

425
00:22:07,799 --> 00:22:11,079
guys you can't live without. So yeah, I'll go Red's part,

426
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,319
like that might actually make the client card go ahead, Bright.

427
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just want to touch on Madro's career. Yeah,

428
00:22:16,599 --> 00:22:19,640
you mentioned he's only twenty four. He's already pitched in

429
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,240
three seasons. This is his third season pitching in the majors.

430
00:22:23,839 --> 00:22:27,119
The numbers are ugly. His career are a eight point

431
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,759
two seven and his whip is two point zero two,

432
00:22:30,839 --> 00:22:32,880
But keep in mind he's only throwing sixteen point one

433
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,960
innings overall, so uh, three innings, five and a third

434
00:22:37,079 --> 00:22:39,359
eight innings for the last three years, we really don't

435
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,680
know what is obviously. I was a small lot of

436
00:22:42,759 --> 00:22:48,079
sample size here for him. Yeah, I agree. I kind

437
00:22:48,079 --> 00:22:50,880
of like the over a little bit more. Uh, Singer's

438
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:55,319
been very hot and cold all season long. But the

439
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,480
Angels has some nice power and they're playing at home here,

440
00:22:58,599 --> 00:23:01,119
So I prefer if I had to play something that

441
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,599
play the over a little bit. But luckily we don't

442
00:23:03,599 --> 00:23:05,039
have to play all these games.

443
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,559
Speaker 1: If you can get an over I was just scanning

444
00:23:07,599 --> 00:23:09,720
the market real quick. If you can get an over nine,

445
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:11,880
I think some sites are at nine and a half

446
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,119
plus money. If you can get an over nine, I

447
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,480
that that makes a lot more sense. So like if

448
00:23:18,519 --> 00:23:20,400
you can find like a nine minus one twenty, I

449
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,559
think that's uh yeah, I think that that makes sense

450
00:23:23,599 --> 00:23:28,519
for sure. All right, let's go back. There's another another

451
00:23:28,559 --> 00:23:31,920
good comment here, Mike Scott. He says, good morning, fellas,

452
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,319
How can I convert my friends' brains from thinking two square?

453
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,359
We like to put in parlays together. I want them

454
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,160
to think value plays like y'all have taught me taught

455
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,880
me just have them watch the show, say, guys, tune

456
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,519
into the show and and you know then they'll start

457
00:23:47,559 --> 00:23:50,680
to think like you are, like we do. So anyway,

458
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:56,039
appreciate the feedback, and yeah, well let's continue on here.

459
00:23:56,599 --> 00:24:00,279
I see the chatter in the chat talking about our

460
00:24:00,319 --> 00:24:03,240
guy Jack Flaherty. So this was one that I that

461
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,720
interests me as well. I know Sean. I know Sean

462
00:24:06,839 --> 00:24:12,720
has been like mostly right. So Sean's a Tigers fan

463
00:24:13,079 --> 00:24:17,000
and he's been mostly correct on Flarity at least him

464
00:24:17,039 --> 00:24:19,400
being good for a stretch. Now, I know he hasn't

465
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,839
been as good of late, and neither have the Tigers.

466
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,519
But Brian Leonard, this is this is like feels like

467
00:24:25,599 --> 00:24:27,720
the spot where it's maybe time to jump back in

468
00:24:27,799 --> 00:24:30,799
with the Tigers a little bit. I'm not high on

469
00:24:30,839 --> 00:24:33,640
this Astros team, and Arragetty hasn't really been a guy

470
00:24:33,759 --> 00:24:36,480
wanded back since he's come back. They've also had a

471
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,480
little bullpen usage from the weekend. So is this your

472
00:24:39,519 --> 00:24:42,000
spot to jump back in with the Detroit Tigers at

473
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:43,160
home as a favorite right here?

474
00:24:44,799 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 2: Not in this price range. We're looking at about a

475
00:24:47,039 --> 00:24:48,720
one fifty five with the top.

476
00:24:49,039 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 1: Wow, Eric, what was that that moved I think the

477
00:24:54,519 --> 00:24:56,519
Tigers before I came on the show were like minus

478
00:24:56,519 --> 00:24:58,920
one thirty minus one thirty. Say they must have just

479
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,000
taken money like big time. If that's the.

480
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,599
Speaker 2: Case, Yeah, I don't know. From what I see, it

481
00:25:04,599 --> 00:25:08,359
would open at one forty and I was up to whatever.

482
00:25:10,279 --> 00:25:13,519
Eric Getty's a guy who I was excited to see

483
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,160
come back, but he hasn't performed very well still coming

484
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,079
back from injury. It's gonna take him a little bit

485
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,480
while of a while here. Houston is getting a few

486
00:25:22,519 --> 00:25:27,599
guys back, at least they're supposedly no longer injured, including

487
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,640
their big bopper. So we'll see what happens here. But

488
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:35,240
that's a team that needs a little bit more offense. Flaherty,

489
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,119
he's not been nearly as good this year as he

490
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,359
was last year. In fact, in twenty twenty three wasn't

491
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,640
very good either, So I do have my concerns with him.

492
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,319
His barrel right in the fourth percentile really bothers me.

493
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:54,039
And he gets away with being a fly ball pitcher

494
00:25:54,039 --> 00:25:57,799
because this is a good pitcher's ballpark. But I don't

495
00:25:57,799 --> 00:26:01,079
know if I'd look to back him on general basis.

496
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:05,200
He's just very consistent. As I mentioned, to Araghetti comes

497
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,279
in with a six point three eight ERA four point

498
00:26:08,319 --> 00:26:11,240
five eight expected, and the whip is high one point

499
00:26:11,279 --> 00:26:13,519
four to seven. He's always had a high whip. This

500
00:26:13,559 --> 00:26:16,400
is the second season his career numbers are four point

501
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,359
seven four ERA one point four to one. Whip got

502
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:23,680
great extension, and his whip rate's pretty good expect to

503
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,279
batting average, but he's had walk problems. Last year ten

504
00:26:27,319 --> 00:26:30,200
point three percent walks, this year thirteen point one. So

505
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,000
I kind of like the over here is I don't

506
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,960
trust either one of these pitchers here. I know it's

507
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,200
a pictures ballpark, but we could still get you know,

508
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,880
eight and a half out there and get that over

509
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,559
without having to pay much juice. That would be the

510
00:26:44,559 --> 00:26:47,119
way I would look as of right now. I don't

511
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,559
trust either one of these starters. And you know, they

512
00:26:50,559 --> 00:26:53,119
do have some pretty good hitters in these lineups. They're

513
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,759
not completely all the way through, like like I mentioned

514
00:26:55,759 --> 00:27:00,279
earlier in the season for Detroit was but there's still

515
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,319
pretty good batch at the bottom of these lineups. So

516
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:03,839
I kind of like the overer in this one.

517
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,839
Speaker 3: Guys, do us a favor and go to the replay

518
00:27:07,839 --> 00:27:11,160
and leave a comment and click the like button on

519
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,160
our replay would greatly appreciate it. Actually, if you click

520
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,559
the like button now, it counts as a like on

521
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,839
the replay, so click that.

522
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 2: Like.

523
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,519
Speaker 3: All of us are great baseball cappers. I'm number one

524
00:27:22,519 --> 00:27:25,279
at wager talk plus ninety units twenty twenty five. I

525
00:27:25,319 --> 00:27:28,039
know Adam's on a good run, Bryan's the all time

526
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,039
baseball winning cap or at wager Talk. So go to

527
00:27:31,079 --> 00:27:33,200
our page and find out what we got and check

528
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:37,480
our free plays out as well. Regarding this game, I

529
00:27:37,519 --> 00:27:40,720
think the Tigers is the only way to go. Astros

530
00:27:40,759 --> 00:27:42,680
bats are pretty cold right now. I know they just

531
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,519
came off a couple wins, but they're cold right now,

532
00:27:46,559 --> 00:27:49,079
and their bullpen is not performing well at all. I

533
00:27:49,079 --> 00:27:52,160
got the Astros bullpen ranked twenty five in current form

534
00:27:52,559 --> 00:27:56,640
very bad. Tiger's not much better, but still better is better.

535
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,799
I got them ranked seventeen batting Tiger a lot better

536
00:28:00,839 --> 00:28:04,119
than the Astros right now according to my numbers, and

537
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:09,519
Flaherty is very average starting pitcher. He's a lot of

538
00:28:09,519 --> 00:28:12,160
people are gonna say he's a great home pitcher, but

539
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,720
he's not really a great home pitcher. It's just he's

540
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:16,920
terrible on the road. So it makes him look better

541
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,720
at home. He's almost got a four ERA at home,

542
00:28:19,759 --> 00:28:23,039
which is not great. But the Astros bats are really

543
00:28:23,039 --> 00:28:27,119
cold right now and are getty. He's walking seventy one

544
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,440
percent of the batter as he's striking out. That's a

545
00:28:29,559 --> 00:28:32,400
huge walk grate. He's gonna get in trouble here. I

546
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,799
think I think Detroit's gonna score more than Houston, which

547
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,960
means usually when you score more than the other team,

548
00:28:40,119 --> 00:28:42,720
you usually win the game. So I would say the

549
00:28:42,759 --> 00:28:45,440
Tigers are gonna win this one. I haven't played it yet,

550
00:28:46,279 --> 00:28:48,319
but all of my numbers point that way. They just

551
00:28:48,359 --> 00:28:51,519
don't point definitively that way, but they do all point

552
00:28:51,519 --> 00:28:51,920
that way.

553
00:28:54,079 --> 00:28:57,839
Speaker 1: I knew I wasn't crazy, Sean said Tiger's remindus one

554
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,480
twenty five at seven am. G said he already played

555
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,920
Tigers minus one forty. I think they were minus one

556
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,119
thirty five when I was sort of doing my notes

557
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,440
this morning. So yeah, the Tigers absolutely took money, and

558
00:29:10,519 --> 00:29:13,599
rightfully so I would not. I would not play the

559
00:29:13,599 --> 00:29:16,200
Tigers now at the current price because I'm just not

560
00:29:16,279 --> 00:29:19,440
gonna take a price that's thirty to forty cents worse.

561
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,400
But if you already have the Tigers in your pocket.

562
00:29:22,519 --> 00:29:25,640
I think it's a good bet. Brian talked about errag Getty.

563
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:27,680
So if you go back a couple of weeks, I

564
00:29:27,759 --> 00:29:30,440
talked about Arrogetty when he came off the IL and

565
00:29:30,519 --> 00:29:33,400
I said, I felt like the Astros rushed him back.

566
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,119
I felt like he probably should have had at least

567
00:29:36,119 --> 00:29:39,559
one more start at TRIPAA, and he came back. In

568
00:29:39,599 --> 00:29:42,039
that start. He came back three and two thirds against

569
00:29:42,079 --> 00:29:46,960
the Marlins, eleven hits, five runs, not very good. Last

570
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:51,039
time out, he actually survived against the Red Sox, but

571
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,960
still five walks, three strikeouts. And that's always been the

572
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,559
thing with Aragetty is is he he's got the good

573
00:29:58,599 --> 00:30:02,240
swing and miss stuff, but if he's not on, if

574
00:30:02,279 --> 00:30:05,920
his command isn't there, he throws too much out. So

575
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,240
he throws too many what you would call non competitive pitches,

576
00:30:09,519 --> 00:30:12,160
meaning he's out of the zone and not no one

577
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,279
in Major League Baseball is going to swing at them.

578
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:16,480
If you go back to the beginning of his career,

579
00:30:17,119 --> 00:30:19,319
his first couple starts, that's what he struggled with because

580
00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:21,400
he was getting a lot of swing and missing the minors,

581
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,079
and then he got up to the big leagues and

582
00:30:23,119 --> 00:30:25,359
it's like, oh no, Like these guys don't swing at

583
00:30:25,359 --> 00:30:29,200
that pitch up here, they're just too good. He was

584
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,400
able to work around that and actually had a run

585
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,720
where he was really pretty solid and he was getting

586
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,200
a lot of strikeouts. Right now, he doesn't clearly doesn't

587
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,079
have that command, probably because he came back from injury

588
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,640
mid listen Tokyo. Brandon will tell you being around baseball

589
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,599
guys forever, it is very difficult, especially for a pitcher

590
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,599
to shut it down in the middle of the season

591
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:54,359
and then come back and not have some sort of issues.

592
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,440
And it's even tougher when you don't get like a

593
00:30:57,519 --> 00:31:00,279
month to really iron it out at Triple A, right

594
00:31:00,319 --> 00:31:02,160
And they didn't give him that he didn't have that

595
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,279
long He kind of you know, I think he had

596
00:31:04,319 --> 00:31:06,039
like one or two starts and it was right back

597
00:31:06,039 --> 00:31:08,000
in the big leagues. And this is still a young

598
00:31:08,039 --> 00:31:12,799
guy in his second season that has never had great

599
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:16,240
command overall, and so you rushed him back. Now he's

600
00:31:16,279 --> 00:31:18,599
he's it's not clicking, and he's got to go out

601
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:22,400
and start on the road tonight in Detroit. Eight and

602
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,839
two thirds innings since he's come back, eight walks like

603
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,119
can't happen, not gonna win, not gonna win a road

604
00:31:29,119 --> 00:31:32,079
game against a good team. Uh and if Flaarty could

605
00:31:32,079 --> 00:31:34,440
be even a little bit respectable, which yeah, he hasn't

606
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,240
been great his last two starts, but for the most

607
00:31:36,279 --> 00:31:38,759
part he's been pretty solid. I think the Tigers are

608
00:31:38,759 --> 00:31:41,039
gonna be in a good position to win. So I

609
00:31:41,279 --> 00:31:45,279
think whoever's bet the Tiger's already great bet, maybe maybe

610
00:31:45,359 --> 00:31:47,240
use it in your parlay at this point because at

611
00:31:47,279 --> 00:31:50,240
minus won fifty five minus one sixty, uh, the value

612
00:31:50,319 --> 00:31:53,599
is gone in my opinion. So uh yeah, good good, uh,

613
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:57,279
good conversation there, And that'll be an interesting one to

614
00:31:57,319 --> 00:32:00,400
watch because those two teams are, I can like, kind

615
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,480
of similar in the sense like they're you know, not

616
00:32:03,599 --> 00:32:05,640
having as good of a run as they did earlier

617
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,279
in the year. We'll see who gets back to being

618
00:32:08,319 --> 00:32:14,319
the playoff caliber team. Okay, let's continue on. I'm gonna

619
00:32:14,319 --> 00:32:16,359
grab one from the chat here. I saw I saw

620
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:20,240
another one that people wanted to talk about. Let me

621
00:32:20,359 --> 00:32:24,559
see here's one. Let's go to Jose Perez. I believe

622
00:32:24,599 --> 00:32:27,240
he's talking about I believe he's talking about Oh yeah,

623
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,440
he is talking about Trevor Rodgers right here, and this

624
00:32:29,559 --> 00:32:32,119
was a game that interested me a little bit. So

625
00:32:32,599 --> 00:32:35,599
Trevor Rodgers. You know, I still think it was an

626
00:32:35,599 --> 00:32:38,519
awful trade, Brian Leonard, it was an awful trade to

627
00:32:38,599 --> 00:32:41,160
give what they gave up for Trevor Rodgers last year.

628
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,680
I believe it was Stours and Norby they gave to

629
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:48,400
the Marlins. So terrible trade. But Trevor Rodgers are starting

630
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,680
to look like the guy they maybe wanted last year

631
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,200
at the trade deadline when they were in the playoff race.

632
00:32:53,599 --> 00:32:55,839
He's been very good. Now he's on the road here

633
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,000
against the Red Sox. Jose Perez says he likes the

634
00:32:58,039 --> 00:33:00,640
over outs, so I'll leave that to you and then

635
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,000
maybe TV can jump in on the outs over since

636
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:06,000
that's his thing. Orioles Red Sox at Benway Park, Tye,

637
00:33:06,039 --> 00:33:06,559
what do you think?

638
00:33:07,319 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bremanton has made some comments about certain teams and

639
00:33:11,039 --> 00:33:14,160
players and has backfired. I think we can all take

640
00:33:14,359 --> 00:33:18,000
into account that we really did not like this Rogers trade.

641
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,839
But I apologize to Trevor Rodgers. He's pitched so much

642
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,559
better this year than I expected. Comes in with that

643
00:33:24,599 --> 00:33:27,559
one point four to three ERA zero point eight one whip.

644
00:33:29,759 --> 00:33:31,839
He has got a lot of red on his on

645
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,960
his statcast page. His hard hit rate is in the

646
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:41,039
fourth percentile, which really stands out considering his ERA. Fourth percentile,

647
00:33:41,039 --> 00:33:42,880
you know, you don't see that for guys that have

648
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,680
an under three e RA. But his numbers have been

649
00:33:46,799 --> 00:33:50,559
very good and I expect that to continue. They saw

650
00:33:50,599 --> 00:33:53,079
something in him, and he's pitching more like you did

651
00:33:53,119 --> 00:33:56,519
in that really big year for the Marlins dustin May

652
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,599
four point sixty seven e R, a one point three

653
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,880
to five whip on the season, a lot of blue unfortunately,

654
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:07,000
and now he's playing in a very good hitters park.

655
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,960
Didn't understand why Boston wanted to bring him in here.

656
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,599
They work out in the future. I don't know if

657
00:34:13,639 --> 00:34:15,639
it's working out this season for him. He's got a

658
00:34:15,679 --> 00:34:18,400
lot of blue on his on his cards, so it's

659
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:23,159
not something I'm looking forward to from from backing him.

660
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,559
We're looking at the line right now, getting a little

661
00:34:25,559 --> 00:34:27,880
bit of hits all around, but we're looking at about a

662
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:31,159
one twenty favorite for Boston here and eight to the

663
00:34:31,199 --> 00:34:35,360
over twenty in the total. I said coming into the

664
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,440
season that if I was going to play Baltimore games,

665
00:34:38,519 --> 00:34:41,199
I was going to play him over for the most part.

666
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,840
The offense has been a little bit disappointing this year.

667
00:34:44,039 --> 00:34:46,000
The pitching has been basically what we thought it was

668
00:34:46,039 --> 00:34:50,719
going to be a lousy starting staff. So with a

669
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:55,679
total of eight in Boston, that's low, isn't it that

670
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,800
I'm not I don't see that very often. And even

671
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:03,880
though Rogers I really like, I think Baltimore is going

672
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:05,400
to get to May a little bit. Let me take

673
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,519
a look at the Baltimore team total that may have

674
00:35:08,639 --> 00:35:11,400
some value. It's three and a half to the over

675
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,239
minus one thirty five or so. That would be what

676
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,320
I would prefer. I think he scored four runs in

677
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:23,880
Boston against May. Let's go Baltimore over team total. I

678
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,679
may end up using that as my parlay, but as

679
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:31,480
of right now, that's just a feeling. And they still

680
00:35:31,519 --> 00:35:33,920
have some pretty good hitters in that Baltimore lineup. It's

681
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,599
just been very striky. So that's the way I'm looking

682
00:35:36,639 --> 00:35:37,559
at this one right now.

683
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 3: To the person who put in the comments, Trevor Rodgers

684
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,559
over seventeen and a half outs recorded, you have been

685
00:35:46,679 --> 00:35:49,599
reading my now. I actually put that out as a

686
00:35:49,639 --> 00:35:51,320
free play earlier.

687
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:51,559
Speaker 2: In the day.

688
00:35:52,119 --> 00:35:56,199
Speaker 3: While everyone in the United States were sleeping. As soon

689
00:35:56,199 --> 00:35:59,039
as this came out on DraftKings, I jumped all over it.

690
00:35:59,079 --> 00:36:03,679
And here's why. Trevor Rodgers has been really good this season,

691
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,280
better than when he was with Miami, much better. I

692
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,840
don't know what happened. Maybe he needs to be tested.

693
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,639
I don't know what's going on, but he's been pitching

694
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:16,000
great and against these batteries. He has a two hundred

695
00:36:16,039 --> 00:36:19,719
average against in a five twenty seven ops against. That's great.

696
00:36:20,039 --> 00:36:24,760
It's only thirty at bats sample, but okay, fine, he's

697
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,559
on the road today, So how's he doing on the road. Well,

698
00:36:29,079 --> 00:36:31,559
forty plus innings pitched, he's got a one ninety nine

699
00:36:31,639 --> 00:36:35,599
ERA on the road. That's pretty good. So combine that

700
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:39,519
together with and if you download my newsletter for free,

701
00:36:40,039 --> 00:36:44,960
my Pitcher Projections pdf. I call it a newsletter. Maybe

702
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,480
it's not technically a newsletter, but you'll see that. I

703
00:36:48,559 --> 00:36:52,400
project Trevor Rodgers at nineteen point eight outs recorded because

704
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,800
in his last few games he's been going over over

705
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:59,480
over over look at his last starts seven innings, six innings,

706
00:36:59,559 --> 00:37:03,440
eight and seven six six point two, six point two.

707
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:08,000
I mean, well it's technically six point six, but so

708
00:37:09,119 --> 00:37:12,760
I mean why is he seventeen and a half outs recorded,

709
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,320
which is six innings? Makes no sense to me, So

710
00:37:15,519 --> 00:37:18,000
I'm all over that over. I only put one percent

711
00:37:18,039 --> 00:37:21,840
on it, though, so because my innings projections have been

712
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,000
a little bit cold, my money lines have been hot,

713
00:37:24,119 --> 00:37:27,880
so I'm not risking too much on it. But yeah,

714
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,880
I like his over seventeen and a half. Baltimore might

715
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:33,239
win this game too. Their bats are a little cold,

716
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:34,360
but they might win.

717
00:37:36,559 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: I think they have a great chance to win. And

718
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,679
to just go off of the pitching outs over, I

719
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,280
mean they do kind of the Orioles do kind of

720
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,360
need length from their starters. They you know, they traded

721
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,760
away was it Sodo? Two of them? I think they

722
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,559
traded Sir Anthony Domingez to the Blue Jays. I believe

723
00:37:54,559 --> 00:37:56,920
they traded Sodo to the Mets. So you know this

724
00:37:57,079 --> 00:37:59,960
is this was never a deep bullpen in the first

725
00:38:00,639 --> 00:38:02,440
and now they've traded some of their better guys. So

726
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,320
if they're if they're in a winnable game and their

727
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:09,119
starter is keeping his pitch count down, you can pretty

728
00:38:09,159 --> 00:38:12,920
much rest assured that they're gonna let him go the

729
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:15,599
full allotment because they just they don't have like a

730
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,880
like much down there in the bullpen, yet like so

731
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,400
that I think that favors the over outs as well.

732
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,840
Too little, too late for the Oriols. It's it's actually

733
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,360
unfortunate that they were so bad out of the gate,

734
00:38:27,639 --> 00:38:29,559
because this is not a bad baseball team. I think

735
00:38:29,559 --> 00:38:31,159
you watch them like you look at what they're doing

736
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:34,000
right now. Man, if they were if they were like

737
00:38:34,119 --> 00:38:37,079
where the Rangers are, or let's say the Rays, or

738
00:38:37,119 --> 00:38:39,199
like the Royals, I'd be like, you know what, this

739
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,639
team might have a chance there. They might be in

740
00:38:41,679 --> 00:38:44,159
the mix. They I like the way they're hitting. I

741
00:38:44,199 --> 00:38:47,800
still think they have a good enough group of players

742
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,320
from a talent perspective. They kind of rake right handed pitching,

743
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:54,440
So I don't have much faith in Dustin May here,

744
00:38:55,559 --> 00:38:57,440
don't they. They don't play as well on the road,

745
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,800
which is I guess a concern. But like when you're

746
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,880
talking talking about getting Rogers as opposed to like Brian

747
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,719
pointed out May, I'm not quite sure what the Red

748
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,079
Sox were doing with that. I think they I think

749
00:39:08,119 --> 00:39:10,559
they wanted Joe Ryan and didn't get him and just

750
00:39:10,639 --> 00:39:13,039
like sort of made the knee jerk move, like, hey,

751
00:39:13,039 --> 00:39:14,800
we have to make a move because we're in it,

752
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:18,000
we need like, but May was never the answer there

753
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,960
in my opinion, And I think you're you have a

754
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,480
great starter in Rogers who has shown no reason. He's

755
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,920
shown really no reason to doubt him. And yeah, Brian,

756
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,559
that the hard hit rate is is puzzling, because how

757
00:39:29,599 --> 00:39:32,239
are you how are you throwing up those numbers as

758
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:36,320
a starter but giving up hard hit it makes no sense.

759
00:39:37,599 --> 00:39:39,840
But the thing is all of his other numbers and

760
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,960
metrics are so good that I'm like almost willing to

761
00:39:43,039 --> 00:39:45,639
just ignore that at this point because he's been so

762
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,800
good everywhere else that I see no reason to doubt him.

763
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:52,599
So you want to talk about, you know, plus money, Orioles,

764
00:39:53,079 --> 00:39:56,679
Orioles hit right hand pitching, Orioles are playing well, I

765
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:00,239
don't mind it. Slick Vick said he's healthy now, Yeah

766
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:04,480
that matters, And Trevor he's you know, are okay. So

767
00:40:04,559 --> 00:40:06,559
Trevor's commenting on May, which is a good I love

768
00:40:06,599 --> 00:40:08,960
that the Devil's advocate. I always want to see both sides.

769
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,400
He said, May tweak this pitch mix and looked really

770
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,159
good last time out against Houston. Yeah, it's a good

771
00:40:14,199 --> 00:40:17,360
point as well. But for me, the way the Oils

772
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,639
are playing right now. You give me this Orioles lineup

773
00:40:19,679 --> 00:40:24,039
against the right handed pitcher you have. Basalo just got

774
00:40:24,079 --> 00:40:26,960
called up. They're gonna give Dylan Beaver some playing time.

775
00:40:27,039 --> 00:40:29,360
Two guys I've been excited about the minor league level.

776
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,280
Jeremiah Jackson's kind of been great since he was called up.

777
00:40:32,519 --> 00:40:34,920
So you got some of these younger guys in the mixed.

778
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,719
The Oriols are an exciting team to me right now.

779
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,119
I'll be looking on spots to play them. I thought

780
00:40:40,159 --> 00:40:42,760
about it here, haven't got to win, got to the

781
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,400
window with it yet, but the only way I would

782
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,159
play this game is the Orioles just to think they're

783
00:40:47,159 --> 00:40:50,199
better than the market at this point. And Colin Gregory says,

784
00:40:50,199 --> 00:40:52,760
Colton Kowser's back. That's a guy that they missed for

785
00:40:53,119 --> 00:40:57,159
stretches this year. So that's I think they're an exciting

786
00:40:57,199 --> 00:41:00,480
team right now. All right, we got to do that one.

787
00:41:02,159 --> 00:41:05,800
Adam Batman Westbury in the chat welcome In says, are

788
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,079
the Jays gonna hit up Skeins Toronto plus money is

789
00:41:09,199 --> 00:41:13,400
very inviting. I was dead wrong. Last week the Brewers

790
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:17,480
took it to Paul Skeins and Brian Leonard. Are we

791
00:41:17,519 --> 00:41:20,840
getting to the end of the season where skeens Maybe

792
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:24,960
it's just like I'm on this bad team. It's August.

793
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:28,119
I don't know, like, is there is there any reason

794
00:41:28,159 --> 00:41:31,039
for him maybe not to go full tilt and risk

795
00:41:31,159 --> 00:41:34,800
like injuring himself or like something stupid happening on a

796
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,239
team that's so far out of the race because he

797
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,159
didn't look good. He didn't look like himself at all

798
00:41:39,159 --> 00:41:41,400
against the Brewers, and now he faces a Blue Jays

799
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,400
lineup that can knock the cover off the ball. So

800
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:44,480
how are you seeing this one?

801
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:48,639
Speaker 2: I think Paul Skins is pitching for Paul Skins as

802
00:41:48,679 --> 00:41:51,320
opposed for pitching for the Pirates. He seems to be

803
00:41:51,519 --> 00:41:56,840
very ray cerebral. He knows he's good. If you take

804
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:59,360
a look at his routines. He does a lot of

805
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,000
things a little bit from Miserawski's kind of picked up

806
00:42:02,039 --> 00:42:05,519
after him. But he's an independent guy. He's out there

807
00:42:05,519 --> 00:42:09,679
trying to prove himself. Obviously free agencies in his future,

808
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:12,199
so I think he's You're going to get the best

809
00:42:12,199 --> 00:42:15,079
out of him every time he goes out there. His

810
00:42:15,159 --> 00:42:18,039
hard hit rate is only a fifty second percentile but

811
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:22,960
everything else is really good. He's a guy that I

812
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:26,280
expect to pitch well, and it's up to the Pittsburgh

813
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:28,400
management to see how long he goes in these games.

814
00:42:29,159 --> 00:42:31,199
Hearing thirty three innings last year and I was at

815
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:36,559
one forty eight. He does throw seven pitches, so he

816
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:39,960
throws everything five percent or more, so he's got a

817
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,800
full arsenal. I love that in case something's not working.

818
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:44,800
A lot of these guys, you know, we talked about

819
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:46,840
Ben Brown in the past with only three pitches and

820
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:50,280
really two. If one of his pitches isn't worker, well,

821
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,119
it's a long day for him. But Skins is able

822
00:42:53,159 --> 00:42:56,679
to make the adjustments and I think you're going to

823
00:42:56,679 --> 00:43:00,119
get a good effort out of him. Kevin Gousman comes in.

824
00:43:01,119 --> 00:43:05,000
He's been a workhouse last three years, one to eighty

825
00:43:05,039 --> 00:43:07,079
five innings, one eighty one last year. He's already up

826
00:43:07,079 --> 00:43:09,639
to one forty two and a half. Uh. He's a

827
00:43:09,639 --> 00:43:13,920
five ball pitcher. But this is a pretty good stadium

828
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,079
for pitchers, so I don't think that's gonna be much

829
00:43:16,079 --> 00:43:19,639
of a much of a factor here if you ask me,

830
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,320
I think there's some little bit of value on Toronto

831
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,639
when you look at the w ORC plus over the

832
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:29,320
last fourteen days, Toronto's blown everybody away. They're at one

833
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:32,920
sixty five. The second best is Milwaukee at one thirty six.

834
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,280
Pittsburgh's dead last to seventy two. So we've got the

835
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,800
best hitting team in baseball the last two weeks going

836
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,760
against the worst hitting team in baseball the last two weeks,

837
00:43:43,199 --> 00:43:46,360
and it's close to a pick them. It's we're looking

838
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:49,599
at about one ten favorite or so for Pittsburgh. So

839
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,800
it's really a toss up here. I think Toronto's the

840
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:56,719
better side here to get the team that is so

841
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,800
much better offensively than the opposition. And it's not like

842
00:44:00,039 --> 00:44:03,679
Golesman's a bad picture. He's been a veteran, but he's good.

843
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:05,559
He's a good picture. Is he Skians?

844
00:44:05,679 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 3: No?

845
00:44:06,679 --> 00:44:09,559
Speaker 2: But I think there's value here on Toronto. I prefer

846
00:44:09,599 --> 00:44:11,079
the Blue Jays in this press range.

847
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:16,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the Blue Jays are basically better at everything

848
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,639
than the Pirates. The problem is, you've got the best

849
00:44:19,679 --> 00:44:23,559
picture in MLB, well, one of the two. It's either

850
00:44:23,559 --> 00:44:27,880
Scooball or Schimes. But what are the chances he has

851
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:31,239
two horrible games in a row. I just don't see it.

852
00:44:31,599 --> 00:44:35,199
He's just too good. Uh. And I look at Gusman's

853
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:39,760
numbers against these pirates. Surprisingly they've rocked him in his career.

854
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:44,719
What does he have a three sixty four average against

855
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,719
him a one thy sixty one ops against these batteris

856
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:50,760
in his career. He's on the road, and he's got

857
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,760
a really good era on the road. So now I'm

858
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:57,320
conflicted is are the Pirates gonna actually break out and

859
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,320
hit him? Or is he going to be a good

860
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,599
road picture? Usually, so when I'm conflicted like this, I'm

861
00:45:02,639 --> 00:45:05,760
not gonna play it. If anything, I would play an

862
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:10,440
under in this game because I just don't see Skeens

863
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:14,679
having two bad games in a row. Although Toronto is

864
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:17,599
the number four hitting team in MLB and they've been

865
00:45:17,679 --> 00:45:21,639
ranked five or higher almost all seasons, so they they

866
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:23,840
have some boys who can put it over the fence.

867
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,079
I just don't see Skeens having two bad games in

868
00:45:27,119 --> 00:45:30,920
a row. So all these conflicting things. Sorry to throw

869
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:33,360
out data and not make a play, but I'm not

870
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:34,000
gonna play this.

871
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 1: That's hey, I mean, there's there's a it's a pretty

872
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,519
big slate for a Monday, So nothing wrong with sort

873
00:45:40,519 --> 00:45:43,719
of getting through a game and realizing there's not much there.

874
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:47,119
I kind of agree with you because I'm with you

875
00:45:47,159 --> 00:45:50,119
on the thought process that Skeins probably bounces back and

876
00:45:50,159 --> 00:45:52,760
throws the ball well. But at the same time, like

877
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,159
Kevin Gossman is kind of tough to figure out, like

878
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,280
he's really a two pitch pitcher. This year, he's just

879
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:03,000
throwing two pitch. It's a fastball splitter and he gets

880
00:46:03,039 --> 00:46:06,960
no ground balls. Yet he's having a very very good

881
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,840
season numbers to the too. I mean you talk about

882
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:14,079
like his whips like one oh five, okay, and it's

883
00:46:14,119 --> 00:46:16,599
like you're not supposed to be able to do that

884
00:46:16,679 --> 00:46:19,480
as a starter in Major League Baseball over the course

885
00:46:19,519 --> 00:46:22,599
of a full season with two pitches. But he's a

886
00:46:22,679 --> 00:46:25,679
veteran guys he locates and he's getting enough swing and

887
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:30,079
miss where where it's worked out for him. So it's

888
00:46:30,119 --> 00:46:32,760
it's that makes it difficult because I'd like to I

889
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:35,639
think i'd like to play against him Gossman, but I

890
00:46:35,639 --> 00:46:37,480
don't know if I want to play against the Blue Jays,

891
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:41,039
who I've sort of talked about in April and May

892
00:46:41,159 --> 00:46:43,800
is as the team that they could be this team,

893
00:46:44,159 --> 00:46:46,000
and now they become this team. So it's so it's

894
00:46:46,079 --> 00:46:48,440
very difficult for me to fade them because this is

895
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,599
what I always thought they could be, and they sort

896
00:46:50,599 --> 00:46:53,039
of turned into what I thought they were going to be.

897
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,239
So plus money, I guess I do see a little

898
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,320
value with the Blue Jays, because if you can survive

899
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,639
the starters, there's no question that you're gonna have an

900
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:04,599
edge in the later innings of this game with the

901
00:47:04,599 --> 00:47:07,400
Blue Jays. The other thing is, you know the Pirates.

902
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,920
I watched most of that Comes Pirates series over the weekend.

903
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:14,039
Every game was close. The Pirates could have won all

904
00:47:14,039 --> 00:47:17,000
three games they did win on Friday. So they just

905
00:47:17,039 --> 00:47:21,440
played three very very tight, competitive games with a team

906
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:24,360
that I'm sure that they consider is, you know, a rival,

907
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,440
it's a division rival, and so to have to turn

908
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:30,840
around and kind of play this game today, and then

909
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,360
the fact that they do come out flat behind Schien

910
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,079
sometimes I don't know if it's because they think like okay,

911
00:47:36,119 --> 00:47:40,239
like he's just gonna go six scoreless and whatever. That

912
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:42,320
makes me not want any part of the Pirates here,

913
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,320
So it would be Blue Jays or pass. But I

914
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:46,559
just don't know if I can get behind Gospin. Knowing

915
00:47:47,119 --> 00:47:50,840
that schemes might come out pitch well, and I'd be

916
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,599
in trouble if he does that. So yeah, I don't

917
00:47:53,599 --> 00:47:58,639
think I have anything here either. Travis in the chat says, oh,

918
00:47:58,639 --> 00:47:59,800
go ahead, TV, Sorry about that.

919
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,280
Speaker 3: Just a quick point. I think the books, I've seen

920
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:08,000
this all year. I think they're overvaluing starting pitching. You

921
00:48:08,119 --> 00:48:11,760
got a good starting pitcher, and the books just say, automatically,

922
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:14,480
just give him a really good number, despite the fact

923
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,320
that the bullpen sucks and they can't hit. And the

924
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:20,000
Pirates are a good example. Their bullpen is not well,

925
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:23,400
their bullpen is not terrible, but they can't hit, and

926
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:26,320
so just because Schemes is on the mound, they're getting

927
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:30,159
like minus one fifty or whatever it is, minus whatever.

928
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:32,800
There's no there's no way in the world the Pirates

929
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:35,519
are a better team than the Blue Jays, but because

930
00:48:35,559 --> 00:48:39,880
they're starting pitcher, it shifts the numbers like fifty cents.

931
00:48:40,159 --> 00:48:42,400
I think they're overvaluing starting pitching.

932
00:48:44,159 --> 00:48:46,559
Speaker 1: It's a real conundrum too when the team is bad.

933
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:49,159
That's what makes it really difficult when you have when

934
00:48:49,159 --> 00:48:52,039
you have an elite starter on a bad team, makes

935
00:48:52,039 --> 00:48:54,840
for a very tough handicap and for kind of the

936
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:58,679
point you're making TV. It's like, how far are you

937
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:00,880
going to swing it? It's like if we put the

938
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,119
pirates in the Blue Jays next to each other, there's

939
00:49:03,199 --> 00:49:05,960
no conversation, like the blue Jays are better in every

940
00:49:06,039 --> 00:49:08,599
aspect of the game, but now you have to factor

941
00:49:08,639 --> 00:49:11,239
in schemes. I agree with you, it makes it very,

942
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:13,599
very challenging. I always have a hard I always have

943
00:49:13,639 --> 00:49:17,840
a hard time betting these type of games, and they

944
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:22,559
typically don't make my card. All right, Brian Leonard, do

945
00:49:22,559 --> 00:49:24,039
you want to throw a game out? We're getting the

946
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,559
we're at the ten minute mark. Have we talked about

947
00:49:27,599 --> 00:49:29,400
a game or have we not talked about a game

948
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:31,920
that you're considering for your parlay piece yet?

949
00:49:32,159 --> 00:49:33,840
Speaker 2: Well, I think I'm gonna use one of the two

950
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:35,719
that I mentioned, But I do want to point out

951
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:41,519
the Dodgers go to Colorado. Here Dodgers coming off of

952
00:49:41,559 --> 00:49:45,519
a huge hompstand where they swept the San Diego Padres,

953
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:49,679
and I talked about that earlier in the season, the

954
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:53,079
games that the Dodgers need to win or against division rivals,

955
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:57,559
and I was obviously not referring to Colorado'm talking about

956
00:49:57,559 --> 00:50:00,000
San Francisco and San Diego and they came and they

957
00:50:00,079 --> 00:50:02,840
played well, and uh so that's something to take a

958
00:50:02,840 --> 00:50:04,719
look at. But now you know they're going on the

959
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:08,079
road to Colorado, which is always an adventure if you're

960
00:50:08,119 --> 00:50:11,920
playing after you're playing somewhere else and it's your first

961
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:15,360
game there. Yeahmmotial is going. He's a huge favorite. He's

962
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:17,440
close to a three dollar favorite in many cases here

963
00:50:17,519 --> 00:50:21,639
against Freeland. Kyle Freeland is the one guy who over

964
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,320
the years has been able to pitch pretty well in Colorado.

965
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:27,679
Now I'm not saying I'm gonna play Colorado here, but

966
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:29,280
you would have to think this is a little bit

967
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:31,880
of a letdown spot here for the Dodgers. There may

968
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:34,519
be some way to play Colorado. You're looking at a

969
00:50:34,559 --> 00:50:38,559
total of eleven. Maybe you take you know, two and

970
00:50:38,559 --> 00:50:41,760
a half or something and take Colorado. Just something to

971
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:43,599
keep in mind that I think has the letdown spot

972
00:50:43,639 --> 00:50:48,440
for them there. Also, when I take a look at

973
00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:53,880
today's card, the San Francisco San Diego game is a

974
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:55,960
game that I think has got a little bit of

975
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:59,880
a better Robbie Ray actually two lefties going against nest

976
00:51:00,159 --> 00:51:04,920
Cortes San Diego. After being swept against the Dodgers, how

977
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:06,440
are they going to come back from that. Are they

978
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:08,719
a little bit depressed if they made all that ground up,

979
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:12,079
went into uh went in to play the Dodgers and

980
00:51:12,119 --> 00:51:14,159
they were actually up a game going in that series,

981
00:51:14,199 --> 00:51:17,559
and then the guests swap so emotional games for San

982
00:51:17,559 --> 00:51:19,960
Diego and the Dodgers last three days. It'll be interesting

983
00:51:20,039 --> 00:51:21,599
to see how these games play out.

984
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:29,719
Speaker 3: Regarding the DoD the Dodgers Colorado. Surprisingly, I have Colorado

985
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:32,679
ranked better at hitting and better in the bullpen right now,

986
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,639
which I didn't expect to see when I ran my numbers.

987
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:38,360
So this is why sometimes you have to cover the logos.

988
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:42,559
But despite that, I still have the Dodgers overall the

989
00:51:42,599 --> 00:51:46,519
better team, just because the starting pitcher discrepancy where I've

990
00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:49,920
Yamamoto ranked four out of thirty and I got Freeland

991
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:52,119
ranked twenty four out of thirty on a curve. So

992
00:51:53,599 --> 00:51:57,960
despite slightly better hitting and a much better bullpen by Colorado,

993
00:51:58,079 --> 00:52:01,679
I still have the Dodgers a slight favorite. But it's

994
00:52:01,679 --> 00:52:03,840
a dangerous game. I mean, they just came off a

995
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:07,000
series with San Diego fighting for the lead in the

996
00:52:07,119 --> 00:52:10,519
NL West, and then they have to go to Colorado

997
00:52:10,559 --> 00:52:12,599
and play a game that everyone expects them to win

998
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:15,800
with their eyes closed. So these are the kind of

999
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,440
games and with their best pitcher on the mound, no doubt.

1000
00:52:18,679 --> 00:52:21,000
So these are the kind of games you lose sometimes,

1001
00:52:21,039 --> 00:52:23,480
which is crazy to say, but I don't expect the

1002
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:27,079
Dodgers to lose. But that's just baseball. Sometimes these are

1003
00:52:27,119 --> 00:52:28,320
the games you lose, you know.

1004
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:33,119
Speaker 1: Adam Westbury says you can get the Rockies plus three

1005
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:35,840
for minus one twenty. I don't think that's a terrible

1006
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:38,920
b and TV. I'll add some context to it, what

1007
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:40,920
I you know, because people might tune in and be like,

1008
00:52:41,079 --> 00:52:43,639
you're crazy. The Rockies aren't a better lineup than the Dodgers.

1009
00:52:43,639 --> 00:52:46,400
They're not a betting hit hitting team then the Dodgers,

1010
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:49,320
and they're not no one like no, the Rockies are

1011
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:52,559
never in any conversation right now do they have a

1012
00:52:52,599 --> 00:52:54,679
better lineup or are they a better hitting team than

1013
00:52:54,679 --> 00:52:57,159
the Dodgers. But I think it is is acceptable to

1014
00:52:57,199 --> 00:53:02,199
say that this Rockies team, there's reasons to like this

1015
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:04,920
lineup right now. They have hit of late. You've got

1016
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:08,199
Ryan Ritter back, who's who you know, it was really

1017
00:53:08,199 --> 00:53:10,559
good at Triple A and you know he's definitely I

1018
00:53:10,559 --> 00:53:13,880
think he went two for four yesterday, warming Burnabel is awesome.

1019
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:16,000
Like if you don't know who this guy is, go

1020
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:18,760
go like he might be a star. I mean he

1021
00:53:19,079 --> 00:53:22,920
I know the Rockies ruined prospects like no other, but

1022
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:25,800
he actually might be like a star. And I thought

1023
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:28,800
that he was awesome at Albuquerque earlier this year. And

1024
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:30,559
now he's been up for a little while. He's hitting

1025
00:53:30,559 --> 00:53:33,360
three oh four in the big leagues and the samples

1026
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:35,480
getting up there. I mean he's been up, you know.

1027
00:53:35,519 --> 00:53:38,440
I think he's now played twenty five games in the

1028
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,159
big leagues or something that like that, hitting three oh four,

1029
00:53:41,199 --> 00:53:44,599
he might he might be like a legit big leaguer.

1030
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:47,960
I know the Rockies, you know, they bring these guys

1031
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:51,280
up and they come up with hype and they never

1032
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:54,079
pan out. That that's one that I could see panning out.

1033
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:56,760
And then you talk about you know, Tovar missed a

1034
00:53:56,760 --> 00:54:00,679
good portion of the season. He's back, is back in

1035
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:02,960
the in the Major. He's been back for a while,

1036
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:05,280
but like he's starting to hit. Think he's bat in

1037
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:07,760
like two to eighty. So TV I'm I'm I'm kind

1038
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:10,039
of on board with like, hey, like this Rockies lineup's

1039
00:54:10,079 --> 00:54:12,599
not that bad. And if they're at home and they

1040
00:54:12,599 --> 00:54:15,039
can generate a little offense. And now you talk about

1041
00:54:15,079 --> 00:54:17,800
like Adams saying you can get a plus three at

1042
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:20,639
minus one twenty, I mean the Rockies if they're like,

1043
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:22,559
you know, they got a young man. The guy that's

1044
00:54:22,599 --> 00:54:25,159
managing the team now is like forty years old. I

1045
00:54:25,159 --> 00:54:27,360
think they've got some nice energy, Like there's still a

1046
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:30,280
bad team, but you know, damn well, they're gonna go

1047
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:32,280
out and like want to beat the Dodgers Like this

1048
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:34,320
is like their this is like their super Bowl a

1049
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,280
little bit. So I'm i'm I think I'm on board

1050
00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:41,519
with Trevor says love the Rockies team total over like, yeah,

1051
00:54:41,559 --> 00:54:44,440
you got Yamamoto in the elevation off the San Diego Series,

1052
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,559
a great point that Brian made, and the Dodgers bullpen

1053
00:54:47,599 --> 00:54:51,239
has been shaky. I can get down with that. Rockies

1054
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:53,559
plus three seems crazy to me, though that actually doesn't

1055
00:54:53,599 --> 00:54:55,199
seem like a half bad bet.

1056
00:54:57,239 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 2: If you can get the plus three minus one twenty,

1057
00:55:00,159 --> 00:55:02,639
I would play that. I'm seeing right now at plus

1058
00:55:02,639 --> 00:55:06,159
two and a half at plus one ten, so you're

1059
00:55:06,159 --> 00:55:08,239
only paying thirty cents more for the half a run

1060
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:11,920
and eleven is not an outrageous total. We just saw

1061
00:55:12,039 --> 00:55:16,280
Colorado in the last series at twelves, so just because

1062
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:19,559
the line is high does not mean there's still not

1063
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:22,760
value there. So yeah, I may find a way to

1064
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,719
play Colorado one way or the other here, either playing

1065
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:28,440
the plus two and a half plus one ten or

1066
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:31,920
maybe playing the team total over. But I think it's

1067
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:34,599
definitely a let down spot. And the Dodgers have shown

1068
00:55:34,639 --> 00:55:36,079
this all year long. He's not like all of a

1069
00:55:36,119 --> 00:55:37,679
sudden they're gonna turn it on now. This is the

1070
00:55:37,679 --> 00:55:40,360
way they played all season long, and there's a chance

1071
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:42,239
for them to have a letdown, they seem to have it.

1072
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:47,760
And they've gone through a lot of guys obviously months

1073
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:49,800
he's hurt again and they've got some other guys that

1074
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:53,519
are still banged up a little bit, So that one

1075
00:55:53,559 --> 00:55:55,320
may make my card. I don't know if I'll use

1076
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:58,639
it for the parlay here, but I do like Colorado

1077
00:55:58,679 --> 00:56:00,840
getting the two and a half for better.

1078
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 3: A little bit scary is Yamamoto is a really good

1079
00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:07,159
road picture. That's the only thing that scares me. But

1080
00:56:07,199 --> 00:56:10,480
he's a good road picture everywhere. But Colorado. This is

1081
00:56:10,519 --> 00:56:13,280
just a monkey ballpark, So this is not a typical

1082
00:56:13,519 --> 00:56:16,880
road game, So yeah, I would agree with that.

1083
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 1: Tokyo. Brandon, do you want to propose a game or

1084
00:56:21,039 --> 00:56:22,599
did you do? You do? You do? You know what

1085
00:56:22,599 --> 00:56:24,599
you're gonna use for the parlay? Yeah?

1086
00:56:24,639 --> 00:56:26,639
Speaker 3: We covered it already, but I'm going to take the

1087
00:56:26,679 --> 00:56:31,400
Tigers on the money line against the Astros. It's minus

1088
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:34,599
one forty five where I'm seeing it, but that's going

1089
00:56:34,679 --> 00:56:36,800
to be my leg what we covered it already.

1090
00:56:36,880 --> 00:56:42,199
Speaker 1: So Brian, can I get a market price on Tigers?

1091
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:44,239
Do they because they they might The other side might

1092
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:46,079
take some money there, so I it might go back

1093
00:56:46,079 --> 00:56:47,760
to like minus one forty five minus.

1094
00:56:47,559 --> 00:56:53,119
Speaker 2: One one one fifty three right.

1095
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 1: Now, that's fine, it's a parlay, that's right. Yeah, it's

1096
00:56:56,880 --> 00:57:01,519
a probably we'll say minus one. Brian, do you know

1097
00:57:01,559 --> 00:57:03,960
what you want to lock in for the parlay right now?

1098
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:07,679
Speaker 2: I do. Let me just write down his Detroit. I'm

1099
00:57:07,679 --> 00:57:10,239
gonna play the Baltimore team total over three and a

1100
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:14,320
half at minus one thirty five. As I mentioned, and

1101
00:57:14,679 --> 00:57:17,840
you mentioned the guys that they had just brought up. Yes,

1102
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:21,880
they are rookies and they were just getting their first

1103
00:57:22,880 --> 00:57:25,559
their first chance to play in the majors. But these

1104
00:57:25,559 --> 00:57:29,639
are two guys in Beavers and Bassalo that we've been

1105
00:57:29,639 --> 00:57:33,400
waiting on, and I think it's gonna rejolt. This Baltimore

1106
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:35,400
team has also a lot of young guys on it.

1107
00:57:36,079 --> 00:57:38,639
And anytime you've called up in the minors with a

1108
00:57:38,679 --> 00:57:41,079
lot of these guys, you're friends with them, You're excited

1109
00:57:41,119 --> 00:57:43,320
for them. They've been reading about these guys. I think

1110
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:45,639
Baltimore the rest of the season is going to happen

1111
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:49,039
some value and to go against me. And I do

1112
00:57:49,199 --> 00:57:52,159
understand every team when you get trade to a new team,

1113
00:57:52,159 --> 00:57:53,800
they're going to work on a lot of your stuff.

1114
00:57:54,679 --> 00:57:57,840
One good outing isn't enough for me to buy into

1115
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:00,320
May at this point. So I think Baltimore a score

1116
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:02,840
four runs here, So that's what I'll use. Team total

1117
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,679
over three and a half at minus one thirty five.

1118
00:58:06,639 --> 00:58:08,559
Speaker 3: I'd take Baltimore over three and a half in the

1119
00:58:08,559 --> 00:58:09,159
first inning.

1120
00:58:10,800 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 1: I mean, hey, listen, that that lineup's got crooked number potential,

1121
00:58:16,519 --> 00:58:18,760
Like there's no doubt about that. That's the one thing.

1122
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:21,440
I'll go back to the point I made earlier when

1123
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:24,760
we were handicapping that game. If they didn't dig themselves

1124
00:58:25,239 --> 00:58:27,119
that big of a hole, like they have such a

1125
00:58:27,159 --> 00:58:29,079
bad April in May and they dug themselves such a

1126
00:58:29,079 --> 00:58:33,480
big hole. This Orioles team would be playing their way

1127
00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:36,000
into into a wild card spot. I just don't think

1128
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:39,480
they can do it from ten games out, obviously, but

1129
00:58:39,599 --> 00:58:42,320
the al this the American League is not great, and

1130
00:58:42,559 --> 00:58:46,159
this Orioles team, I think they're gonna be a team

1131
00:58:46,199 --> 00:58:48,119
you want to back from here to the end of

1132
00:58:48,199 --> 00:58:51,400
the season. Because of what Brian said. Basalo's a guy

1133
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:53,400
I thought we might see him last year at one point.

1134
00:58:54,199 --> 00:58:56,440
You know, all these guys that have played together in

1135
00:58:56,440 --> 00:59:00,239
the minors, Dylan Beavers, Bissalo, Jackson and then like, they're

1136
00:59:00,239 --> 00:59:04,360
not far removed from the Jackson Holidays and the last Wave.

1137
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:07,199
So it's still a very young team. That's the thing

1138
00:59:07,239 --> 00:59:10,159
you have to understand about the Orioles. They had success early,

1139
00:59:10,639 --> 00:59:13,599
like this is still a very young team. That's that's

1140
00:59:13,639 --> 00:59:15,480
still looking toward the future. I think you get a

1141
00:59:15,519 --> 00:59:18,760
lot of a good outings from the Orioles the rest

1142
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:21,119
of the way. So Brian, I'm with you there at TV.

1143
00:59:21,239 --> 00:59:24,320
I love the Tigers call. That's that's a great spot

1144
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:26,960
for them. So let's get let's hit one of these

1145
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:29,760
We are getting dangerously close to being even on the season,

1146
00:59:30,199 --> 00:59:34,519
so we need this one right here. I'm gonna go

1147
00:59:34,559 --> 00:59:37,440
with the Reds. Go ahead. TV NO.

1148
00:59:37,599 --> 00:59:40,039
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, can you recap it for them?

1149
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:41,039
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1150
00:59:41,119 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, So my leg is so three teamer. My leg

1151
00:59:43,519 --> 00:59:46,679
is Cincinnati Reds minus one twelve. Bryan Leonard's gonna go

1152
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:50,280
Orioles team total over three and a half minus one

1153
00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:53,559
twenty five, and Tokyo Brandon is going Tigers on the

1154
00:59:53,599 --> 00:59:56,679
money line. That's the three teamer plus four forty two.

1155
00:59:56,719 --> 00:59:57,320
Go ahead, Brian.

1156
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:02,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. I I'm a terrible promoter and myself, we've been

1157
01:00:02,840 --> 01:00:04,840
winning a lot of our four and five percent plays.

1158
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:07,239
We're on a seventy eight percent run on four percent

1159
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:09,880
in higher and we've turned a profit eight out the

1160
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:13,159
last nine days. Unfortunately, at this point, I don't know

1161
01:00:13,199 --> 01:00:15,440
what my plays are. I'll continue to work on them

1162
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:18,280
today and I will put them up. But all three

1163
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:22,239
of us, I think are on pretty good runs, and well,

1164
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:24,400
let's hopefully get one of these parlays. I blew it.

1165
01:00:24,559 --> 01:00:27,199
I guess on Friday, I guess my team lost him

1166
01:00:27,239 --> 01:00:29,559
was yeah, I went. I got three plays for clients,

1167
01:00:29,559 --> 01:00:31,159
I went too and one and of course the one

1168
01:00:31,199 --> 01:00:33,039
I lose the one to use in the parlor here,

1169
01:00:33,199 --> 01:00:36,360
So it happens. Parlays are hard to hit, especially three

1170
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:38,679
teamers are higher. But let's say we can get one

1171
01:00:38,719 --> 01:00:39,400
for you today.

1172
01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:43,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got, I got an MLB play out already,

1173
01:00:43,840 --> 01:00:46,639
so go get that. Adam's got a five percent, Brian's

1174
01:00:46,679 --> 01:00:49,719
gonna put his out right after the show. Go to

1175
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:51,639
our pages and see what we got up for free

1176
01:00:51,679 --> 01:00:52,159
as well.

1177
01:00:54,159 --> 01:00:57,079
Speaker 1: Absolutely, we appreciate you guys tuning in. If you have

1178
01:00:57,119 --> 01:01:00,599
a minute, go drop drop us alike on the YouTube replay,

1179
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:02,880
maybe a comment. We like to get in there and

1180
01:01:03,159 --> 01:01:06,360
interact with you guys on there as well, And let's

1181
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:08,599
have a great Monday. We'll be back nine am tomorrow

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for more total basis. See you guys then,