Speaker 1: Welcome to the Auction Brief. There's a joy in these games.
Speaker 1: So now taking you on a journey through fantasy football,
Speaker 1: the law, and life. These all your day, It depends
Speaker 1: on how much you want. And now you're legal analyst
Speaker 1: and auction draft expert here to help you dominate your
Speaker 1: fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew Davenport. They're asked, full hearts,
Speaker 1: let's go play. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Auction Brief.
Speaker 1: As the lady said, I'm your host, Drew Davenport, and
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining me for another episode
Speaker 1: of the Auction Brief this summer, and I am solo
Speaker 1: on the mic today talking to you about the fourteen
Speaker 1: players that unlock twenty twenty six auctions. Fourteen players that
Speaker 1: will unlock twenty twenty six auctions, and we're going to
Speaker 1: talk about exactly what that means, and then we're going
Speaker 1: to go through all of these players. Because it is
Speaker 1: that time we're on the mic this week. We have
Speaker 1: a show next week and I believe we have John
Speaker 1: Degel coming in for next week for discussions with Drew.
Speaker 1: I'll have my solo show and then we just have
Speaker 1: one more show after that that is the Auction Manifesto,
Speaker 1: and that will wrap the draft season for the Auction
Speaker 1: Brief podcast. That allows me a couple of weeks to
Speaker 1: get to some par sheets, to push content to the Patreon,
Speaker 1: and you know, I need that time to get you
Speaker 1: all ready for your drafts. And one thing that I
Speaker 1: learned since being at football guys is that if you
Speaker 1: put out good content too late in August, it really
Speaker 1: just irritates some people because they've already done their draft.
Speaker 1: So we don't want to be doing that. We don't
Speaker 1: want to be putting out content after you've had your draft.
Speaker 1: And I know that a lot of people are going
Speaker 1: to draft that last weekend in August and early September,
Speaker 1: but plenty of people are drafted in the next couple
Speaker 1: of weeks too, So we're trying to get that stuff
Speaker 1: out and that's why the Auction Brief will end with
Speaker 1: the final episode on the twentieth. There won't be any
Speaker 1: discussions with Drew that week as I perfect my manifesto.
Speaker 1: But today we're going to talk about fourteen players that
Speaker 1: unlock twenty twenty six auctions, and that word unlock is
Speaker 1: doing some heavy lifting for us because it's really important
Speaker 1: that you understand these aren't just fourteen players. I like,
Speaker 1: you know, we did that earlier in the summer, my
Speaker 1: guys for twenty twenty six, which we're going to update
Speaker 1: a little bit for the Patreon. But today's is about
Speaker 1: unlocking your auction and that means finding another level and
Speaker 1: I believe these players can do it because in large
Speaker 1: part some of them are tweeters or there's massive, massive
Speaker 1: value with their current ADP And you know, I hate
Speaker 1: using ADP, but we're going to talk about it because
Speaker 1: it is a good barometer for what we're dealing with
Speaker 1: in the room. And frankly, most of you aren't walking
Speaker 1: into a room full of analysts and experts from around
Speaker 1: the you know some of you are. That's totally fine,
Speaker 1: and this is still going to help you. But a
Speaker 1: lot of this is based on home leagues too, that
Speaker 1: you can go in and crush your home leagues because
Speaker 1: these values represent what people are doing right now in drafts,
Speaker 1: and I think that we're going to see that there
Speaker 1: are say, massive gaps here that we can exploit. So
Speaker 1: before I get to that, I want to thank everybody
Speaker 1: involved with the salary Cap summit this week. It's been
Speaker 1: an unbelievable success for the second year in a row.
Speaker 1: Very happy about how it turned out. Made a bit
Speaker 1: of a mistake Night one not streaming to Twitter. Whoopsies,
Speaker 1: but hey, we corrected that mistake the last two night.
Speaker 1: Last two nights, I think we were running about seven
Speaker 1: hundred people at one point on Sunday night, and then
Speaker 1: Monday night, I think we were running about four to
Speaker 1: five hundred. So hey, those are great numbers for a
Speaker 1: live stream. People got places to be and things to do,
Speaker 1: they're on vacation. I love those numbers and it tells
Speaker 1: me that people want more of this content. So thank
Speaker 1: you all for being there for the Salary Cap Summit.
Speaker 1: Year two is in the books, and hey, I'm not
Speaker 1: advertising for the expo, for my poker tournament for the
Speaker 1: Salary Cap Summit. All of that is behind us. Let's
Speaker 1: get down to the business of winning you some titles
Speaker 1: and get rid of the ancillary stuff, shall we. You
Speaker 1: can find me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF. You
Speaker 1: can find me on the Patreon network the Fantasy Football Lawyer.
Speaker 1: Just four bucks a month for pushing a ton of
Speaker 1: content over there and ripping off custom par sheets. I'll
Speaker 1: have my rankings for you up very soon with all
Speaker 1: of my pricing, and that is only available to you
Speaker 1: my Patreon subscribers, So if you want that, you got
Speaker 1: to get over there and pay the four bucks. The
Speaker 1: final thing is, don't forget all of you out there
Speaker 1: ordering your draft boards. The best draft boards in the
Speaker 1: business are over at FJ Fantasy. I use FJAY Fantasy,
Speaker 1: have been using them for over a decade and I
Speaker 1: still use them to this day. Use my code auction
Speaker 1: brief and get ten percent off your order, so it's
Speaker 1: a few more bucks than the other draft boards you're
Speaker 1: gonna see. Like you're gonna go on Amazon, you can
Speaker 1: buy a crappy draft board for eighteen bucks. I get
Speaker 1: that these are going to be fifty with some shipping,
Speaker 1: you're probably gonna pay sixty, but then you get ten
Speaker 1: percent off of that. It really works out to about
Speaker 1: five bucks a piece in your draft. So hey, throw
Speaker 1: down a Lincoln, go get your draft board from FJA Fantasy,
Speaker 1: and use my code auction brief. All right, folks, that's
Speaker 1: going to do it for the preliminary stuff. What do
Speaker 1: you say we get into the fourteen players that unlock
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six auctions auction talk. So the best way
Speaker 1: I know how to describe what it means to unlock
Speaker 1: your auctions is to make a little bit of a
Speaker 1: poker analogy. Now this isn't a story, because you know,
Speaker 1: I don't like telling stories this time of year, because
Speaker 1: we need to get into this thing. But the analogy
Speaker 1: helps with understanding what I'm talking about here, because the
Speaker 1: word unlocked, like I said in the opening, does some
Speaker 1: heavy lifting here, and it's important that we understand what
Speaker 1: it means because I'm not talking about when I say unlock,
Speaker 1: I'm not talking about, Hey, these guys are awesome, and hey,
Speaker 1: these guys are values, and hey these guys. No, that's
Speaker 1: not what I'm doing. What I'm doing is I'm saying
Speaker 1: that if you want to build an elite roster, you
Speaker 1: have to find the players that are falling through the
Speaker 1: cracks of the public opinion an incredible value and upside
Speaker 1: at their current price that they completely unlock your roster
Speaker 1: if they hit. So now we're not going to talk
Speaker 1: about a bunch of two dollars lottery tickets here. We're
Speaker 1: talking about some very good players. The most important thing
Speaker 1: that I've learned to date is that these players are
Speaker 1: going cheaper than they should be. And for the most part,
Speaker 1: now some of these guys you're going to hear and
Speaker 1: you're going to say, well, that guy's not cheap. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying cheap. They're cheaper, and I believe that they
Speaker 1: have massive upside for the price that I'm seeing in auctions.
Speaker 1: And I've done a ton of them this summer, and
Speaker 1: now I've actually done some actual drafts here as well,
Speaker 1: and well ahead of when I was last summer. I've
Speaker 1: noticed some things that I think are going to help us.
Speaker 1: But let me make the analogy here to poker about
Speaker 1: unlocking your twenty twenty six auctions, because something that I
Speaker 1: have noticed in my game that's a leak in my game.
Speaker 1: It probably wasn't a leak five years ago, but the
Speaker 1: game of poker has changed quite a bit. And one
Speaker 1: of the things that people are doing and stressing more
Speaker 1: and I really believe in it, is opening up your
Speaker 1: range for three betting pre flop. So let me make
Speaker 1: just a quick explanation out of this so that you
Speaker 1: know what a three bet is. But when somebody raises
Speaker 1: before the flop, let's say the blinds are fifty to
Speaker 1: one hundred the big blind puts in one hundred, and
Speaker 1: then somebody raises to three hundred. When you say you
Speaker 1: three bet that person, it's not a reference to the
Speaker 1: size of your bet. It's a reference to the fact
Speaker 1: that you're putting in a third bet before the flop.
Speaker 1: The initial bet is the big blind at one hundred,
Speaker 1: The second bet is the raise to three hundred. The
Speaker 1: third bet, your bet bet is a raise from the
Speaker 1: three hundred. Okay. Now, I'm generally a really tight three
Speaker 1: bet player, and this creates a problem for me with
Speaker 1: really good poker players. And what I've been trying to
Speaker 1: do is stress playing higher buy in higher guaranteed events
Speaker 1: because I don't have very much time to grind the
Speaker 1: lower stakes. I used to grind the lower stakes and
Speaker 1: that gave me a bankroll for some of the bigger tournaments.
Speaker 1: But I can't go down there and play two to
Speaker 1: three tournaments a week anymore and grind out a nice
Speaker 1: little profit at the one hundred dollars tournaments. I can't
Speaker 1: do that anymore. I don't have the time, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't have the time. So instead I'm going to
Speaker 1: these higher buy and events where the players are much
Speaker 1: better and if you're only three betting when you have aces, kings,
Speaker 1: ace king and queens when you're in position. They know that, right,
Speaker 1: they know that. So it's a leak in the game,
Speaker 1: not just because they're going to fold when you three bet,
Speaker 1: but on top of that, you can unlock the upside
Speaker 1: of your game by opening up your three bet profile,
Speaker 1: and your three befile is learning to open with a
Speaker 1: wider range of hands on a three bet and learning
Speaker 1: to in position really expand your three bet range. I
Speaker 1: saw a solver the other day. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you guys know what solvers are, but they talk about
Speaker 1: what you should do pre flop based on what's happened
Speaker 1: in front of you. And I saw a solver the
Speaker 1: other day saying, if you're on the button with King
Speaker 1: eight suited or better, you should be three betting more
Speaker 1: often than you think. And I don't disagree with this.
Speaker 1: And I don't know if I can get to that
Speaker 1: level of aggression, but I can certainly get a little
Speaker 1: bit further there. And what does that do well? It
Speaker 1: unlocks your ceiling because then when you get the actual
Speaker 1: hand where you three bet and you have it, then
Speaker 1: you get paid off. And when you only three bet
Speaker 1: the aces and kings. You don't have a ceiling unless
Speaker 1: you get incredibly lucky to have a cooler on somebody,
Speaker 1: and a cooler is just getting lucky to have kings
Speaker 1: against queens or aces against kings, or flopping a set
Speaker 1: on somebody when they flop top two pair. You can't
Speaker 1: rely on cooler the entire time you're playing poker, or
Speaker 1: else you'll never make money. So unlocking your ceiling at
Speaker 1: poker is all about learning to unlock your three bet range,
Speaker 1: and that's what we're doing in the auctions today. We're
Speaker 1: trying to find the situations where we ordinarily might feel
Speaker 1: a little bit uncomfortable with what's going on in front
Speaker 1: of us. But if it works out, and if we
Speaker 1: continue to stress the idea and the theory of going
Speaker 1: after these type of players, it will unlock monstrous rosters.
Speaker 1: It will unlock these massively successful championship rosters. Anybody who
Speaker 1: knows Jim Coventry, who's a good friend of the show,
Speaker 1: he had an unbelievable season in The King's Classic last year,
Speaker 1: and really what it came down to was he made
Speaker 1: some of those bets and they all paid off at
Speaker 1: once and that's gonna happen. Sometimes you're gonna have that
Speaker 1: magical season. But even if they don't all pay off exactly,
Speaker 1: most of the plays I have in today's show are
Speaker 1: about unlocking the of your roster because of the correct
Speaker 1: price in or upside that allow you to spend elsewhere.
Speaker 1: And sometimes you're gonna have to go spend for a
Speaker 1: player that you don't necessarily think is a quote unquote value,
Speaker 1: like when I paid for aman Ross Brown for forty
Speaker 1: nine dollars. That's not a value. But you don't get
Speaker 1: value on elite players. So if you get some of
Speaker 1: these other players on your team, you can go for
Speaker 1: elite players, or you can build deeper, or you can
Speaker 1: select multiple players from this list and have an incredible roster.
Speaker 1: So that's what I mean by unlocking our auctions. These
Speaker 1: aren't the best players, or else I just go say
Speaker 1: I like Jean Robinson, these aren't the most valuable players,
Speaker 1: or else I go pick some chump in the fourteenth
Speaker 1: round and say hype him up and say he's going
Speaker 1: to be great. And these aren't the players that I
Speaker 1: think that everyone hates either, because I think people like
Speaker 1: a lot of these guys. But I kind of don't
Speaker 1: care because I still like where they're being drafted, and
Speaker 1: I still believe people are sleeping on them to a degree.
Speaker 1: So part of the unlock feature that I'm talking about
Speaker 1: for today is that we do have a little bit
Speaker 1: of missed priced players. I will say that that's part
Speaker 1: of what we're doing here. And when I say unlocked,
Speaker 1: let me say the final comment here, which is that
Speaker 1: when you land these players, it opens up a new
Speaker 1: avenue of upside for your roster. And that's why I
Speaker 1: use that term. So finding these players for the correct
Speaker 1: price unlocks an upside for your auction draft that you
Speaker 1: didn't know you had before. So let's hit the fourteen
Speaker 1: players that unlock twenty twenty six auction. All right, We're
Speaker 1: gonna go right down the board here, just like you're
Speaker 1: looking at a fantasy roster. Quarterback, first running back, second,
Speaker 1: wide receiver, third, tight end, last, and we're gonna hit
Speaker 1: every one of these guys. And I'll tell you what,
Speaker 1: I don't know how long it's gonna go. We're about
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes into the show. It may go thirty eight minutes,
Speaker 1: it may go, oh, you know, an hour and five minutes.
Speaker 1: I'm not really sure, but I will tell you this.
Speaker 1: I looked up some pretty dank stats for all of
Speaker 1: these guys, and oh man, some dank stats. Bro, Duke,
Speaker 1: where have you been all summer? My blood? Where have
Speaker 1: you been? Oh? My gosh, Dukes here? Yeah, I'm here, Bro,
Speaker 1: give me the dank stats. Bro. Okay, let's be serious, Drew.
Speaker 1: These stats, I believe are why these players unlock your roster. Okay,
Speaker 1: So I'm not just throwing a bunch of stuff at
Speaker 1: your ear hole, but I will say, in the next
Speaker 1: thirty minutes, I'm gonna cram some stuff in that brain.
Speaker 1: So buckle up, get ready. Let's go at quarterback. The
Speaker 1: first guy I want to talk about is Drake May,
Speaker 1: but he is not my key strategy here. The thing
Speaker 1: I've noticed though, in the max this summer, in the
Speaker 1: drafts I've done, is that there are some rooms where
Speaker 1: they really respect Drake May and there are some rooms
Speaker 1: where they just don't care. So if you think that
Speaker 1: Drake May is an option for you, you need to
Speaker 1: nominate him before Josh Allen and hopefully before Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1: If you don't get him out there before those two guys,
Speaker 1: then you just need to wait as long as possible
Speaker 1: to get him out there and kind of mentally reserve
Speaker 1: what you think you can afford to pay for him.
Speaker 1: Drake May is the first one. I guess. I just
Speaker 1: don't understand at this point what people want in order
Speaker 1: to say that May is a guy that they want
Speaker 1: to be in on this year, because I really thought
Speaker 1: after his performance last year that we'd see a crazy
Speaker 1: runaway train of hype for May, and yet we're not
Speaker 1: seeing it. And here's the weird part. It's not as
Speaker 1: if he lost some guys, or that the offensive line
Speaker 1: got worse, or that the coaching staff got worse or
Speaker 1: anything like that. In fact, it's quite the opposite. They've
Speaker 1: got another year under his belt for Treyvon Henderson, an
Speaker 1: explosive player. They've still got Romandre Stevenson. They have the
Speaker 1: same coaching staff and offense in place, and they went
Speaker 1: and added two veteran explosive wide receivers. They added Aj
Speaker 1: Brown and Romeo Dobbs. Both of those guys are veterans man,
Speaker 1: they're both really good players. What are we doing? Drake
Speaker 1: May needs to be in the top two or three
Speaker 1: conversation in every draft, and I'm not seeing that. People
Speaker 1: care enough, all right. So if you can get May
Speaker 1: for a reasonable price, and I know I'm going to
Speaker 1: say that a lot, I'm going to try to give
Speaker 1: you some examples, but I don't really want you to
Speaker 1: stick exactly to the prices I'm telling you. But I
Speaker 1: really like May around ten dollars or less. If I
Speaker 1: can get him for ten or less, I'm gonna feel
Speaker 1: pretty good. I'm not that excited about being in the
Speaker 1: twelve to fourteen dollars business, even though I think that's okay.
Speaker 1: I think that's okay, but I'm not sure that unlocks
Speaker 1: your roster at that price. I think it unlocks your
Speaker 1: roster at eight bucks, at nine bucks, maybe ten bucks.
Speaker 1: All right, So get him out there before the top
Speaker 1: two guys, or wait as long as you can. The
Speaker 1: next two guys are the guys that my strategy really
Speaker 1: revolves around. And I think one guy's not going to
Speaker 1: surprise you. One guy might surprise you. The first guy
Speaker 1: that probably won't is Trevor Lawrence. And once again, I
Speaker 1: can't really get my mind around why people don't like
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence more. Now he has gone for a few
Speaker 1: more dollars than I thought he would go for in
Speaker 1: a couple instances, but for the most part, I've been
Speaker 1: seeing people land Lawrence for less than five dollars, more
Speaker 1: likely three or four. In most draft rooms, that is
Speaker 1: an insane value. Let's not forget what he did last year.
Speaker 1: At the end of the year. He was on an
Speaker 1: incredible run where I think he finishes the QB two
Speaker 1: after their bye last year. And I don't want to
Speaker 1: undersell the fact that Liam Cohen likes his running back
Speaker 1: or excuse me, likes his quarterbacks to run. I guess
Speaker 1: that was a Freudian slip. He likes his quarterbacks to run.
Speaker 1: He had nine rushing tds last year, but let's step
Speaker 1: back from that. I mean he had twenty nine passing,
Speaker 1: nine rushing. The guy had thirty eight touchdowns, and you
Speaker 1: can get him for three bucks, like what Like, he
Speaker 1: didn't have some crazy insane TD rate. Now, nine rushing
Speaker 1: touchdowns that's a lot, okay, So let's expect that to
Speaker 1: fall back, right But over the course of his career,
Speaker 1: he's a guy that gets three hundred rushing yards and
Speaker 1: four touchdowns on the ground. That's his basically, that's his floor.
Speaker 1: And we're discounting the fact that This is a rushing quarterback,
Speaker 1: and if you can get him for three bucks, that's
Speaker 1: what I want you to do. That unlocks your whole roster,
Speaker 1: because there is a very good argument that Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 1: is a top five or six option this year quarterback
Speaker 1: and you're getting him for three dollars. That's what I
Speaker 1: mean by unlock and stuff. The second quarterback is a
Speaker 1: guy that I wouldn't mind you pairing with Trevor Lawrence,
Speaker 1: and that's bo Nix. And I think that you can
Speaker 1: get bo Nicks for a similar price to Lawrence or less.
Speaker 1: I think that you can write on your par sheets
Speaker 1: six or seven dollars and get both of these guys,
Speaker 1: and if you end up paying eight for them, so
Speaker 1: what Listen to what bo Nicks has done. And in
Speaker 1: the two seasons that he's been in the NFL, he's
Speaker 1: finished as a top ten quarterback both seasons. He has
Speaker 1: almost eight hundred rushing yards through two years, and he
Speaker 1: has nine rushing tds through two years. Now. I didn't
Speaker 1: mention his passing stats because they're not super special. But
Speaker 1: see may comment Drake about my next comment. Why don't
Speaker 1: people care more about a guy who just got an
Speaker 1: incredibly explosive, young talented receiver. Bo Nicks just got Jaylen Waddle.
Speaker 1: This matters. I mean, we may not see them firing
Speaker 1: on all cylinders in the first couple of weeks, but
Speaker 1: if people are down on them after four or five weeks,
Speaker 1: go get Boonicks and Jaylen Waddle these guys. I don't
Speaker 1: understand what we have to do for these guys to
Speaker 1: be valued higher, and I understand there's other guys standing
Speaker 1: in the way, but when you're in an auction, you
Speaker 1: don't care. Go get Lawrence and Boennix. I think it's
Speaker 1: going to unlock the rest of your roster because you
Speaker 1: have this incredible rushing floor from both of these quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: and you're gonna do it for five or six bucks.
Speaker 1: That's how you unlock the possibilities for the rest of
Speaker 1: the skill positions. All right, those are my three quarterbacks
Speaker 1: at running back. I've got four for you, and I
Speaker 1: have what I would call an honorable mention that doesn't
Speaker 1: figure into the fourteen. It's just an honorable mention because
Speaker 1: I want to mention it. I want to. It's my show,
Speaker 1: and I want to The first player that I want
Speaker 1: to talk about at running back is Breece Hall. Now
Speaker 1: I don't want to. Don't groan and roll your eyes
Speaker 1: and turn the podcast off. Let me tell you that
Speaker 1: I don't love investing in the Jets offense. I get it,
Speaker 1: but Breece Hall is one of those guys that I
Speaker 1: think qualifies exactly as a tweener. Let me say this
Speaker 1: that Football Guys have him projected as the RB twelve
Speaker 1: this year. Now I'm not saying that's the gold standard
Speaker 1: or that's the bible, but we have some smart guys
Speaker 1: doing projections over at Football Guys, and if they think
Speaker 1: he's the RB twelve, I'm listening now. We don't even
Speaker 1: need him to be a low end RB one because
Speaker 1: right now his price tag is roughly RB fourteen or
Speaker 1: RB fifteen. And the reason that tweeners work out so
Speaker 1: well is because people don't want them and they don't
Speaker 1: know what to do with them. So people don't really
Speaker 1: want brisall, even though they know he's good, and so
Speaker 1: they don't really know what to do with him. So
Speaker 1: a lot of times we're seeing him in the neighborhood
Speaker 1: of twenty two to twenty seven dollars, and you're talking
Speaker 1: about a guy that has possible RB one upside, so
Speaker 1: you can do whatever you want with him. If you
Speaker 1: want to put him in the RB one spot and
Speaker 1: spend more money at receiver, you can do that because
Speaker 1: he's going to approach RB one range if that offense
Speaker 1: is functional at all. I'm looking at Fantasy Points data suite,
Speaker 1: Breesehall had the fourth highest explosive run percentage in the
Speaker 1: entire NFL last year. Explosive run percentages the percentage of
Speaker 1: carries where the running back took the ball for fifteen
Speaker 1: or more yards, fourth in the NFL. On a dumpster
Speaker 1: fire offense, he's fourth in the NFL and explosive run percentage.
Speaker 1: He was tenth in the NFL in miss tackles forced
Speaker 1: per attempt. So when the guy got the ball, he
Speaker 1: was making people miss and he was going for fifteen
Speaker 1: or more yards at the fourth highest rate in the NFL.
Speaker 1: This guy still has it. If Gino Smith makes this
Speaker 1: offense even remotely reasonably good, all scored four touchdowns. Touchdowns
Speaker 1: have been a problem for him. At some point, that's
Speaker 1: going to swing back in his favorite and that offense
Speaker 1: is going to be a little bit better than we think.
Speaker 1: And if that happens, that unlocks your roster because you
Speaker 1: can do whatever you want with him. You can make
Speaker 1: him your RB one and spend up elsewhere, or you
Speaker 1: can make him your RB two and get a wonderful
Speaker 1: RB one to go alongside him. And again that unlocks
Speaker 1: the explosive ceiling of an auction roster. RB two that
Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about is in the same boat
Speaker 1: price wise, and for the same reason. I believe that
Speaker 1: he can function as an RB one or RB two
Speaker 1: based on your build. And that's Josh Jacobs. I understand
Speaker 1: the risk here, okay, And I just want to put
Speaker 1: this out there because I don't want people coming back
Speaker 1: to me and saying, but you told me, Look, I
Speaker 1: get it. The lead to figure out, and it's difficult
Speaker 1: to sign up for that when you know that there's
Speaker 1: a problem hanging over his head. But there's a couple
Speaker 1: things that make me encouraged at this point that there
Speaker 1: won't be any trouble this year. Number one is that
Speaker 1: the Packers have had him with the team since a
Speaker 1: couple of days after the incident. The NFL does not
Speaker 1: appear to have reached out to them and said, hey,
Speaker 1: we have a problem here. And on top of that,
Speaker 1: as a criminal defense attorney for the last twenty four years.
Speaker 1: Twenty five years, Jesus, I'm old. For the last quarter century.
Speaker 1: I have served as a barrister in the courts. But
Speaker 1: look when these I mean when they got it, they
Speaker 1: got it, like they'd file by now, right. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's always the chance that something nefarious is happening behind
Speaker 1: the scenes and they're going to the grand jury or
Speaker 1: something like that. That could go really bad. But I
Speaker 1: think that's like a five percent chance at this point.
Speaker 1: Even if they were to file some misdemeanor charges, I
Speaker 1: think the NFL is gonna be like, all right, we'll
Speaker 1: wait and see what's going on, and then he's going
Speaker 1: to push it out to January and he plays all year.
Speaker 1: Like I just really think he's playing all season, going
Speaker 1: as low as he is because I think people worried
Speaker 1: and not everybody listens to me. I have to constantly
Speaker 1: tell myself that I only have twenty eight thousand followers.
Speaker 1: There's millions playing fantacy football affecting that ADP. They're not
Speaker 1: all listening to me, and a lot of them don't
Speaker 1: believe me. So Josh Jacobs is too cheap. He's got
Speaker 1: thirty touchdowns the last two years. He's been in Green
Speaker 1: Bay for two years and he's averaging fifteen year. It's
Speaker 1: not like the guy's going into his age thirty one season.
Speaker 1: He's twenty eight years old. Last year he had the
Speaker 1: twelfth highest expected fantasy points per game according to Fantasy Points.
Speaker 1: I love that stat. Twelfth highest expected fantasy points per game.
Speaker 1: That means that he's getting RB one workload. And look
Speaker 1: at this. Fantasy Points data also tells me the Packers
Speaker 1: have the seventh highest run rate inside the red zone
Speaker 1: and inside the ten yard line. We know they love
Speaker 1: to run the ball in the red area and they're
Speaker 1: gonna do it with Josh Jacobs. The last two years,
Speaker 1: he has thirty five carries inside the five yard line,
Speaker 1: thirty five. Breese Hall has Breesehall dreams of getting seven
Speaker 1: carries inside the five. This dude's got thirty five. I
Speaker 1: realized I just crapped on the guy I was recommending.
Speaker 1: But I'm hoping that turns around a little bit. But
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs, look, there's no reason for him to be
Speaker 1: going where he is other than the legal stuff. And
Speaker 1: if you have some confidence in me, you can draft him.
Speaker 1: But hey, look we could wake up on August twenty
Speaker 1: fifth and they drop a nasty charge and he gets
Speaker 1: Commissioner exempted and he's out till week nine. That could happen.
Speaker 1: There's a non zero chance that could happen. Don't forget
Speaker 1: you're playing with fire here a little bit. But hey,
Speaker 1: I took him at the end of the second in
Speaker 1: the King's Classic Snake Draft. It's a fourteen teamer, so
Speaker 1: that's really like early third. But hey, I believe in
Speaker 1: him enough to make him my RB two and one
Speaker 1: of my favorite leagues. And you know that I play
Speaker 1: in so you can take that for what it's worth.
Speaker 1: We can go down with the ship together if something
Speaker 1: were to happen. All right. The number three running back
Speaker 1: I want to talk about is Chase Brown. And I
Speaker 1: can't stop talking about Chase Brown because I keep expecting
Speaker 1: to see the adp rise a little bit with Brown,
Speaker 1: but I'm not seeing it. And I think the reason
Speaker 1: for that is it's just too crowded ahead of him.
Speaker 1: And I don't blame people for thinking that. All right,
Speaker 1: he was pretty bad at the beginning of last season.
Speaker 1: Through the first six weeks, he was terrible. I believe
Speaker 1: he was running back thirty through six weeks, but once
Speaker 1: they figured out what he does well and that they
Speaker 1: needed to be using him, from week seven to week seventeen,
Speaker 1: he was the RB five. All right, the RB five.
Speaker 1: This is a top five running back, and yet nobody
Speaker 1: is talking about him as a possible first round pick,
Speaker 1: are they? And that tells me that we can use
Speaker 1: that sentiment to unlock our roster with Chase Brown as
Speaker 1: our RB one. So a wonderful play to make is
Speaker 1: to get Brown as your RB one and then take
Speaker 1: Jacobs or Hall, whichever one's cheaper, and make him your
Speaker 1: RB two, and we are off to the races. So
Speaker 1: we sign up Trevor Lawrence and bow Knicks for a
Speaker 1: three or four hundred yard four touchdown rushing floor. And
Speaker 1: then we turn around and we get fifteen touchdowns from
Speaker 1: Jacobs or sixty catches from Breese Hall and a better offense,
Speaker 1: and we have Chase Brown sitting there as our RB one.
Speaker 1: My friend Dayne McFarland over at Fantasy Life has a
Speaker 1: tool called the the Utilization Tool, and he gives every
Speaker 1: player a utilization score based on how much they're used
Speaker 1: in the passing game and how much they're used in
Speaker 1: the rushing game and their market share and all that stuff.
Speaker 1: Chase Brown's utilization score was ninety one from Week seven
Speaker 1: on last year. And let me give you some context.
Speaker 1: One hundred is the scale, okay, So it's a scale
Speaker 1: of zero to one hundred. He got a ninety one score.
Speaker 1: That's an elite number. It points to over twenty PPR
Speaker 1: points per game. If you had that elite utilization score,
Speaker 1: it points to a twenty PPR point per game season,
Speaker 1: and that's exactly what he had. Believe average twenty point five,
Speaker 1: he was sixth in the league and expected Fantasy points.
Speaker 1: So you could put a Josh Jacobs and a Chase
Speaker 1: Brown on your team as your RB one and two
Speaker 1: and you have two of the top twelve and expected
Speaker 1: fantasy points per game last year. I don't see their
Speaker 1: utilization changing. And that's the key to this whole strategy.
Speaker 1: So if you go into your home league and you
Speaker 1: grab Chase Brown for thirty eight to forty bucks, hopefully
Speaker 1: you're going to get him for thirty five or thirty six,
Speaker 1: but I'm not that worried about that. Pay up to
Speaker 1: forty bucks for him, turn around and get Jacobs for
Speaker 1: twenty six or twenty seven and you've got Lawrence and
Speaker 1: Nicks locked up for five bucks. You are off to
Speaker 1: the races. You're on the way to unlocking that elite roster.
Speaker 1: The next running back is one that I'm sure you're
Speaker 1: tired of hearing analysts talk about this summer, but it's
Speaker 1: Jonathan Brooks. And look, this is a hard one for
Speaker 1: me because I'm not a Brooks like the profile, the
Speaker 1: archetype of who Jonathan Brooks is. That's not me and
Speaker 1: that's not in my nature to be in on that
Speaker 1: kind of a player. He's had his ACL ruptured twice,
Speaker 1: he took all of last year off, it's been a
Speaker 1: long time since he's played meaningful football. But you know what,
Speaker 1: when I watched him play some meaningful football, man, that
Speaker 1: kid looked good. It's a really small sample size, but
Speaker 1: the only thing that we need to know about Jonathan
Speaker 1: Brooks is number one, he's going to be cheap, and
Speaker 1: so you can make him your RB four and get
Speaker 1: him for a reasonable price. That's a lot of times
Speaker 1: going to be in single digits and a lot of
Speaker 1: these rooms, a lot of these rooms, you're not going
Speaker 1: to go into a home league and hear somebody getting
Speaker 1: excited about Jonathan Brooks. Now, you may, and you maybe
Speaker 1: have some sharp leagues that do that, but you're not
Speaker 1: paying fourteen bucks for Jonathan Brooks, and I don't want
Speaker 1: you to. Brooks is all upside and it's okay to
Speaker 1: go in there and swing for the fences with your
Speaker 1: RB four, all right, And a guy that can help
Speaker 1: you do that is my honorable mention. That honorable mention
Speaker 1: is Jalen Warren. And I just can't shut up about
Speaker 1: Jalen Warren because I'm not buying the Rico Dowdell thing
Speaker 1: when it comes to passing down work, I'm not buying it.
Speaker 1: My buddy Brian Drake is in on Rico Dowdell, and
Speaker 1: I like Dawdell as well, and I've heard from some
Speaker 1: smart people this summer who believe that Dawdell's going to
Speaker 1: get more work than we think. So I'm going against
Speaker 1: the grain here and I'm gonna tell you I'm sticking
Speaker 1: it out with Jalen Warren because I'm just not buying it.
Speaker 1: Last year, he was thirty fourth in the league in
Speaker 1: routes run. He ran only two hundred and eleven pass
Speaker 1: routes last year. But he was sixth in the league
Speaker 1: in yards per route run. He was almost one point
Speaker 1: six yards per route run. That's a really strong number
Speaker 1: for a running back. Okay, he was sixth in the NFL.
Speaker 1: He had Kenny Gainwell there last year, and he still
Speaker 1: finished as the RB nineteen in PPR points per game.
Speaker 1: He's going as the RB twenty seven right now. So
Speaker 1: he loses Gainwell, who was hoovering up all these short
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers panic dump offs. And somehow you're going to
Speaker 1: convince me that the Steelers went out and signed Rico
Speaker 1: Dwdele because they want him to come in and take
Speaker 1: the passing down roll from Warren. That doesn't even sound
Speaker 1: reasonable on its face. Now, I'm not sitting here calling
Speaker 1: all these people dumb, like you know, my buddy Drake.
Speaker 1: I spect his instincts, so it worries me a little
Speaker 1: bit to go against his instincts. But I'm not really
Speaker 1: slamming him so much as I'm slamming the idea that
Speaker 1: the Steelers didn't really have an efficient early down runner
Speaker 1: last year. Jalen Warren wasn't very good at it, and
Speaker 1: Kenny Gainwell didn't do a whole lot of it. They
Speaker 1: needed an early down bruiser. They thought that was going
Speaker 1: to be Caleb Johnson, and they went, Whoopsie, we screwed
Speaker 1: up on this pick. We need somebody. So instead of
Speaker 1: Caleb Johnson, they went and got Rico Dowdell. And now
Speaker 1: he's gonna play the early downs. And I know that
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy likes him, but I believe that's why they
Speaker 1: brought him in. Now, I'm not saying he's not gonna
Speaker 1: catch any passes, and he might be the goal line back,
Speaker 1: and of course that limits Warren's upside. But he finished
Speaker 1: RB nineteen while Kenny Gainwell was hoovering up four thousand
Speaker 1: checkdowns from Aaron Rodgers. And I'm just gonna tell you
Speaker 1: Rogers isn't going to stop checking the ball down this year.
Speaker 1: He's gonna keep doing it, and the beneficiary is going
Speaker 1: to be Warren more often than Doubtle. So I think
Speaker 1: at uh, you know, at RB twenty seven, it's a
Speaker 1: little bit crazy. You can go in there and you
Speaker 1: can get Chase Brown, Jacobs or Hall or maybe both,
Speaker 1: then grab Brooks or Warren hopefully both. You know, I
Speaker 1: would love to see a Chase Brown Josh Jacobs, Jalen Warren,
Speaker 1: Jonathan Brooks Backfield. That sounds amazing. That unlocks your ability
Speaker 1: to go spend on these wide receivers I want to
Speaker 1: talk about. So really, the entire plan, the entire idea
Speaker 1: of unlocking your auction focuses a lot on how we
Speaker 1: can get those wide receivers that we need without going
Speaker 1: into that wide receiver two to three murky zone that
Speaker 1: kind of started to fall off last year that we've
Speaker 1: talked about all summer. And these five guys are guys
Speaker 1: that I believe are a little bit cheaper but also
Speaker 1: can far outperform their current value. And I think the
Speaker 1: most important part about these guys is none of them
Speaker 1: are really in the top ten of ADP, so I
Speaker 1: know that we can get them much cheaper than going
Speaker 1: after a guy like Ceedee Lamb or Jamar Chase or
Speaker 1: am and ross Ain't Brown. I'm not saying you can't
Speaker 1: go after those guys, but I believe these wide receivers
Speaker 1: give you flexibility if you use them the right way.
Speaker 1: So a couple of them, you're going to recognize a
Speaker 1: couple of them you might be a little bit surprised about.
Speaker 1: But let's start with my guy, Devonte Smith, and I
Speaker 1: know that you know this already, so I'm not going
Speaker 1: to spend a lot of time on him. I think
Speaker 1: he is the ultimate tweener this year. We talked about
Speaker 1: that earlier in the summer. Go back and listen to
Speaker 1: that discussion earlier in the summer. But the ultimate tweener,
Speaker 1: and I think that's because people don't know whether he
Speaker 1: can hold up as a wide receiver one over the
Speaker 1: course of a season. And I understand the concern, and
Speaker 1: I understand the concern with the offense in general. But
Speaker 1: tweeners make their money because you can use them how
Speaker 1: you want to use them. And if you spend a
Speaker 1: little bit more at running back, or let's say you
Speaker 1: end up landing Drake May and you have to shave
Speaker 1: money somewhere. I think you can come off of the
Speaker 1: Justin Jeffersons and the Nico Collins and those guys that
Speaker 1: are upper thirty mid to upper thirties, and you can
Speaker 1: get these guys that I'm going to talk about here
Speaker 1: in the low thirties to upper twenties to even down
Speaker 1: into the mid twenties. And DeVante Smith is the perfect
Speaker 1: tweener because nobody really wants to draft him as their
Speaker 1: wide receiver one, and they think, well, that's a little
Speaker 1: bit too much for my wide receiver two. And I
Speaker 1: think that's okay to think that. But what you need
Speaker 1: to do then is you need to turn around and say, okay,
Speaker 1: well who is then and who am I going to
Speaker 1: put with him if I were to get him? And again,
Speaker 1: that's what people don't do ahead of time, and that's
Speaker 1: why you're better than most people, right because you're going
Speaker 1: to think ahead of time, well, how does Smith play
Speaker 1: into my draft plan? If I end up getting him
Speaker 1: for thirty three? It's too expensive to be a two,
Speaker 1: that's too cheap to be a one. Well, then you've
Speaker 1: got to okay, is he going to be your one?
Speaker 1: And then you're gonna pay him with a really good two,
Speaker 1: and a couple of these guys are perfect candidates for that.
Speaker 1: That's why this unlocks a lot of possibilities. Let me
Speaker 1: just say this about Demante Smith. He's had one season
Speaker 1: in his career where they fed him a bunch of targets.
Speaker 1: He got one hundred and thirty six targets, He went
Speaker 1: for ninety five catches, eleven hundred ninety six yards and
Speaker 1: about and I think it was seven touchdowns. He finished
Speaker 1: that year as the wide receiver thirteen in PPR points
Speaker 1: per game. Now, I know his current value right now
Speaker 1: is wide receiver thirteen. So it may seem like, oh, well,
Speaker 1: that's how is that a value? Well, I didn't say
Speaker 1: every pick that we're making here is a value. What
Speaker 1: I believe it does for you, though, is it allows
Speaker 1: you to make him a really good wide receiver too.
Speaker 1: If you want to pay up for another wide receiver one.
Speaker 1: I believe it can make you a fairly decent wide
Speaker 1: receiver one, a low end one, but then you can
Speaker 1: go spend on a couple other guys and you can
Speaker 1: really have a strong core across the board. And let
Speaker 1: me just leave you with this, I don't think it
Speaker 1: would be wild based on that target share. I think
Speaker 1: he's going to get at least one hundred and twenty targets, right,
Speaker 1: And so when we're talking about one hundred and thirty
Speaker 1: six targets led to ninety five catches and a wide
Speaker 1: receiver thirteen. Finish, let's look at twenty twenty five, because
Speaker 1: that was I think four years ago. In twenty twenty five,
Speaker 1: if he just had eighty five catches for twelve hundred
Speaker 1: yards and seven touchdowns, so fewer catches, same yards, same touchdowns.
Speaker 1: He would have been the wide receiver seven last year
Speaker 1: and the wide receiver ten in points per game. So
Speaker 1: as the wide receiver production has fallen off, a twelve
Speaker 1: hundred yards seven touchdown season puts you firmly in wide
Speaker 1: receiver one territory. And I think you can get DeVante
Speaker 1: Smith for right around thirty bucks. There are some rooms
Speaker 1: where you can even snag him for twenty seven, twenty eight,
Speaker 1: twenty nine dollars, And if you have to go up
Speaker 1: to thirty two or thirty three, that's okay if you
Speaker 1: have a plan for how you're going to play the
Speaker 1: tweener as a one or a two. All right. So
Speaker 1: the second guy I want to talk about is a
Speaker 1: guy that you might not be thinking I'm going to
Speaker 1: talk about, but it's a Mecca Agbuka and he's gotten
Speaker 1: a lot of steam lately. So I'm a little bit
Speaker 1: concerned about this pick. But I keep coming back to
Speaker 1: the same thing that when we saw him at the
Speaker 1: beginning of the year last year, he was a top
Speaker 1: five wide receiver, right I believe after four or five games,
Speaker 1: he was like wide receiver two or three overall, and
Speaker 1: then the cards, just the house of cards just fell apart.
Speaker 1: Agbuka got hurt. He struggled with that all year. Mayfield
Speaker 1: got hurt. He struggled all year. They just had injury
Speaker 1: after injury after injury. That entire team got hurt. Last year,
Speaker 1: things went as bad as it possibly could for the Bucks.
Speaker 1: So I think we just have to erase the second
Speaker 1: half of his rookie season. I understand that sounds a
Speaker 1: little bit simplistic, but just zoom out a little bit
Speaker 1: with Egbuka and think about it. He has the talent,
Speaker 1: he has the draft capital, he has the quarterback that
Speaker 1: can get him the ball. He has a relatively bad defense.
Speaker 1: And the thing I want to hang my hat on
Speaker 1: is the conversation that I had with Matt Harmon about
Speaker 1: the new offensive coordinator. There's a lot of motion in
Speaker 1: this offense, and there's a lot of getting Agbuka in
Speaker 1: the right situation for him to excel. And the new
Speaker 1: role that he's going to play sounds like it fits
Speaker 1: him much better than the role he played last year.
Speaker 1: So if we get a little bit of injury luck
Speaker 1: and we get a new offensive coordinator that knows how
Speaker 1: to use him better. I don't think that top five
Speaker 1: start last year would be a crazy finish, and so
Speaker 1: that's why I believe that despite the steam, he's still
Speaker 1: a key to unlocking an elite roster because you can
Speaker 1: still get it Buca right around thirty bucks or even
Speaker 1: in the top upper twenties, and maybe in your home
Speaker 1: leagues they don't care about him that much and you
Speaker 1: snag him for twenty four or twenty six. But if
Speaker 1: you have to pay up around thirty bucks, that's okay.
Speaker 1: And this is what I'm talking about when I say,
Speaker 1: pair the Tweiner with somebody, pair DeVante Smith with Egbuca,
Speaker 1: and hopefully you can get him for sixty or less dollars,
Speaker 1: even if you have to pay sixty or sixty two.
Speaker 1: I think those make two receivers for sixty bucks that
Speaker 1: could finish in the top twelve. And yet you paid
Speaker 1: a little bit over what somebody's going to pay for
Speaker 1: Saint Brown or Chase and they just have one. That's
Speaker 1: why it unlocks your roster, and then you can go
Speaker 1: forward with players like a couple of the guys I'm
Speaker 1: about to name. The next one is Parker Washington. I
Speaker 1: realized the end of the season was a small sample size,
Speaker 1: so I don't want to be labored the point with
Speaker 1: Parker Washington because I think throwing a bunch of stats
Speaker 1: out you doesn't do a whole lot for us because
Speaker 1: of the sample size. But let me just tell you
Speaker 1: a couple things that jump off the page. In the
Speaker 1: last two weeks of the fantasy regular season, week sixteen
Speaker 1: and seventeen, he had twenty targets, fourteen catches, two hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty yards on a touchdown in two games. Now,
Speaker 1: he didn't really start getting a really good snapshare until
Speaker 1: late in the year because he struggled with an injury
Speaker 1: in the middle of the season. I think his breakout
Speaker 1: would have started a little bit earlier without the injuries
Speaker 1: he suffered. But from Week nine on he's still averaged
Speaker 1: fourteen PPR points per game. He was the wide receiver
Speaker 1: twenty he's the wide receiver thirty three. Now in ADP
Speaker 1: that's a massive gap. If you think Parker Washington's a
Speaker 1: wide receiver two, this is crazy. You can get Parker
Speaker 1: Washington for eight, ten, twelve dollars at the most. Make
Speaker 1: him your four or make him your three. He's going
Speaker 1: to finish as a wide receiver two. And there is
Speaker 1: nuclear upside here. I believe that with the amount of
Speaker 1: praise that we're hearing this steady drum beat from Jacksonville camp,
Speaker 1: from Leam Cohen, from Trevor Lawrence, from the beat writers,
Speaker 1: he's catching everything. You can't put this genie back in
Speaker 1: the bottle. And in the last four games that the
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars played last year, he averaged a ridiculous thirty
Speaker 1: one and a half percent target share. I believe Brian
Speaker 1: Thomas is going to run clear out routes and he's
Speaker 1: going to be the deep threat. Brian Thomas is good,
Speaker 1: Jacoby Myers is good. I get that they're going to
Speaker 1: spread the ball around. But Parker Washington has Alpha written
Speaker 1: all over him. And this is the kind of play
Speaker 1: that unlocks an elite roster. Get him as your wide
Speaker 1: receiver four and stick him in your flex every week
Speaker 1: and enjoy wide receiver two production. All right, two more
Speaker 1: guys I want to talk about. I don't think you're
Speaker 1: going to be surprised by the next one. That's Jalen Waddle.
Speaker 1: Now I will say that he was sitting at wide
Speaker 1: receiver twenty four for a while, and as things are
Speaker 1: heating up this summer, he's up to wide receiver twenty one. Now.
Speaker 1: I don't really want to see this guy up at
Speaker 1: wide receiver fifteen by the time we get done here,
Speaker 1: But I think in your home leagues people are going
Speaker 1: to they're going to have recency bias when it comes
Speaker 1: to this stuff because Waddle hasn't put up a big
Speaker 1: fantasy season in a while. It's been four years since
Speaker 1: we saw Jalen Waddle put up a good fantasy season,
Speaker 1: and I think that's why his ADP is lagging. He's
Speaker 1: wide receiver twenty one right now, and like I said,
Speaker 1: it's up a little bit. But I hang my hat
Speaker 1: again on the same thing I've been telling you all
Speaker 1: summer is that he's only had two seasons in his
Speaker 1: career where he had over one hundred and four targets.
Speaker 1: That was twenty twenty one he finished as the wide
Speaker 1: receiver thirteen in PPR points per game, and then twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two he turned around and finished as the wide
Speaker 1: receiver eleven. And this was a minimum eight games played,
Speaker 1: all right, So wide receiver thirteen and wide receiver eleven
Speaker 1: in the two games and the two seasons where he
Speaker 1: got over one hundred and four targets. So in order
Speaker 1: to talk me out of the wide receiver twenty one
Speaker 1: price tag, you're gonna have to convince me he's gonna
Speaker 1: get less than one hundred and four targets and he's
Speaker 1: playing with Sean Payton. I mean, it's not like going
Speaker 1: from Mike McDaniel and Sean Payton is a big downgrade.
Speaker 1: Peyton knows how to use him. They went and got
Speaker 1: him on purpose because he works in Peyton's offense and
Speaker 1: the things that they do well in Denver are the
Speaker 1: things that Jalen Waddell does well. So even at wide
Speaker 1: receiver twenty one, I don't like that the price is
Speaker 1: creeping up there, but I'm still seeing him in auctions
Speaker 1: in the mid twenties, and if you have to go
Speaker 1: to upper twenties for him, that's okay. It's perfectly reasonable
Speaker 1: for you to take Agbuka, Smith and Waddell and put
Speaker 1: them all together with Parker Washington. That can be done,
Speaker 1: and that can be done for about one hundred and
Speaker 1: ten bucks, I think maybe even less those four receivers,
Speaker 1: and I absolutely love that build. When you're talking about
Speaker 1: bringing it back with Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs, Trevor Lawrence,
Speaker 1: and Bow Nix and it's a fun little stack there
Speaker 1: with Nix and Waddle. So the last guy I'm going
Speaker 1: to talk about, I don't think is going to surprise
Speaker 1: you either. But George Pickens is that guy that everybody
Speaker 1: needs to talk about more. And I realized this is
Speaker 1: crushing me for my home leaks because I'm not going
Speaker 1: to get George Pickens and I'm not going to get
Speaker 1: Devontae Smith. But hey, my duty is to all of you,
Speaker 1: my listeners. And here's the thing with George Pickens. I
Speaker 1: had a conversation with Scott Barrett from Fantasy Points the
Speaker 1: other day and he confirmed He confirmed my bias. He
Speaker 1: confirmed what I've been thinking about Pickens and Lamb all
Speaker 1: summer because I can't stand the narrative that Seedee Lamb
Speaker 1: is just always going to go crazy, He's gonna explode.
Speaker 1: Is there a chance that he does that and has
Speaker 1: a monster wide receiver one season? Yes, yes there is.
Speaker 1: But let me just talk to you about how they
Speaker 1: looked together on the field last year, from Week seven
Speaker 1: on when Ceedee Lamb came back from injury. George Pickens
Speaker 1: averaged seventeen points per game. Okay, if you just said
Speaker 1: that overall by itself, he's worth the price he's going
Speaker 1: for in auctions right now. However, let me go a
Speaker 1: little bit further. He averaged seventeen points per game. He
Speaker 1: was wide receiver eleven, and he was actually wide receiver
Speaker 1: six overall for this. Now, look, I understand that wide
Speaker 1: receiver six is a little bit crazy because of the
Speaker 1: numbers he put up while Lamb was out, so we
Speaker 1: can just throw those out, okay, but he still finished
Speaker 1: as the wide receiver eleven. Over the time that he
Speaker 1: was with Lamb. The targets were really close. I think
Speaker 1: Lamb out targeted him by eight targets from week seven
Speaker 1: to seventeen. So a little over, excuse me, a little
Speaker 1: under one targeted game. Not that big of a difference.
Speaker 1: And here's the thing that seals it for me. I
Speaker 1: looked at Fantasy points data because I wanted to know
Speaker 1: what their first read target share was. I love first
Speaker 1: read target share. It tells me two things. Number one,
Speaker 1: that the offensive coordinator cares about getting that receiver of
Speaker 1: the ball, and number two, that the quarterback likes the
Speaker 1: routes and likes the reeds for that receiver and he
Speaker 1: looks at him first. Now, a lot of that's by design,
Speaker 1: or most of it's by design, some of it's dictated
Speaker 1: by coverage at the line. The point being, Dak Prescott
Speaker 1: is very comfortable with George Pickens. And last year Pickens
Speaker 1: had one hundred and seven first read targets and LAMB
Speaker 1: had ninety three. Now, I know LAMB missed some time,
Speaker 1: so let's convert that to a percentage of their plays.
Speaker 1: Last year, LAMB had twenty seven point eight percent first
Speaker 1: read targets and Pickens had twenty seven point two percent.
Speaker 1: They were separated by half a percent in first read
Speaker 1: target share. This offense likes both guys. I'm not saying
Speaker 1: LAMB sucks. I'm not saying don't have LAMB. I'm saying,
Speaker 1: get George Pickens for thirty two, get George Pickens for
Speaker 1: thirty one, get George Pickens for twenty nine, get him
Speaker 1: in that upper twenty to low thirty range, and that's
Speaker 1: how you unlock your roster. So look at these five
Speaker 1: wide receivers and tell me that you can come out
Speaker 1: of there, come out of your auction with two to
Speaker 1: three of them. I would love if you came out
Speaker 1: of it with four of them, but if you get
Speaker 1: two or three of these guys, that's unlocking the rest
Speaker 1: of your roster. The honorable mention I have in this
Speaker 1: category doesn't count towards the fourteen, but I want to
Speaker 1: mention him because again I think he's being disrespected, and
Speaker 1: that's Quinton Johnston. I don't know how I turned into
Speaker 1: a Quentin Johnston stand but I will tell you this,
Speaker 1: When you watch Quinton Johnston, your biases are doing a
Speaker 1: lot of the work because if you watch him play,
Speaker 1: he's actually a pretty darn good player. And if you
Speaker 1: can get back, if you can get past the lowells, lol,
Speaker 1: he dropped it out of their pass. Tell me what
Speaker 1: you think he went for last year in yards and touchdowns?
Speaker 1: Shouted at the speakers right now. He had seven hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty five yards and eight touchdowns. That's not a
Speaker 1: bad season, right and everyone thinks he was a disappointment.
Speaker 1: He finished wide receiver twenty eight in points per game.
Speaker 1: Guess where he's going right now, wide receiver thirty nine
Speaker 1: thirty nine. So once again, you've got a Chargers offense
Speaker 1: that lost Keenan Allen gained Mike McDaniel, and somehow Quinton
Speaker 1: Johnston is going to finish eleven spots lower. When he
Speaker 1: had a healthy offensive line and the Chargers were doing
Speaker 1: what they wanted to do at the beginning of the season,
Speaker 1: Quinton Johnston was a top ten player. He was a
Speaker 1: really good player at the beginning of the season. If
Speaker 1: the offensive line stays healthy and Mike McDaniel us him
Speaker 1: like we know he knows how to do with receivers,
Speaker 1: Quinton Johnston could very end up being a top twenty
Speaker 1: four receiver at the end of the year. Hell, he
Speaker 1: was wide receiver twenty eight last year. He had some
Speaker 1: weird games where he showed up with zero points and
Speaker 1: he was hurt, and he still finished wide receiver twenty
Speaker 1: eight points per game. He's going wide receiver thirty nine.
Speaker 1: You think he's not going to show up in the
Speaker 1: top twenty four if they get a little bit of
Speaker 1: injury luck next year. This year, so you know, he's
Speaker 1: an honorable mention because I'm not sitting here saying that
Speaker 1: you need to plant your flag. But Johnston ain't expensive.
Speaker 1: And so if you go into your room and you
Speaker 1: get two of Pickens, Egbuca Smith, then grab waddle in
Speaker 1: Washington and bring it back with Quinton Johnston. And then
Speaker 1: you've got Chase Brown and Jacobs or Hall. Plus you
Speaker 1: got Brooks or Warren Lawrence or Knicks. This is a
Speaker 1: very achievable roster. It drips with upside. And I'm just
Speaker 1: here to tell you that the reason these players unlock
Speaker 1: your roster is not only the price, not only the
Speaker 1: tweener potential that we recognize, and not only both of
Speaker 1: those things, but the separation of public opinion and what
Speaker 1: these players can actually do is fairly wide. Okay, fairly wide.
Speaker 1: And so let's end today by talking about some tight ends.
Speaker 1: And I'm going to cheat a little bit as we
Speaker 1: end today's discussion. The first guy I want to say
Speaker 1: is it's Colston Loveland. This is not a crazy opinion.
Speaker 1: I don't even want to spend any time on it.
Speaker 1: We're running a little bit long. I just I don't
Speaker 1: even care to spend time on it. This guy's incredible,
Speaker 1: incredible raving in camp. Once he started getting eighty percent
Speaker 1: target share, excuse me, that would be pretty amazing. When
Speaker 1: I'm tired, folks, I'm tired. Once he started getting eighty
Speaker 1: percent market share take three. Once he started getting that
Speaker 1: eighty percent route rate that we like to see for
Speaker 1: tight ends, he absolutely exploded. And if you can get
Speaker 1: Loveland cheaper than McBride and cheap for them Bowers, and
Speaker 1: you can get him in maybe the upper teens, maybe
Speaker 1: twenty bucks, I think you can plan on that. And
Speaker 1: I think that's going to open up your roster by
Speaker 1: allowing you to say, Okay, I can slough off a
Speaker 1: little bit on receiver or running back and get Colston Loveland.
Speaker 1: But but, but, but this is kind of like the
Speaker 1: Drake May play. I want you to take a look
Speaker 1: at Loveland if it doesn't work, and I want you
Speaker 1: to force anything with Loveland or May. The thing I
Speaker 1: really want you to do is I just want you
Speaker 1: to pick one of Laporta, Sam Laporta, Tucker Craft or
Speaker 1: Harold Fannin and just get the cheapest one. Just get
Speaker 1: the cheapest one, because all three of these guys prove
Speaker 1: that they're elite talents. Laporta sounds like he's doing really well.
Speaker 1: We know he's got a tight end one finish on
Speaker 1: his resume. Tucker Craft was the tight end one when
Speaker 1: he got hurt last year and Harold Fannon, as a rookie,
Speaker 1: came in and just absolutely went berserk. And I think
Speaker 1: that you can't put that genie back in the bottle either.
Speaker 1: So no need for long discussion or dank stats here.
Speaker 1: Sam Laporta, Tucker Craft, Harold Fannin. Whichever one's cheaper, that's
Speaker 1: your tight end one. And once again, I think you
Speaker 1: can get these guys for six, seven bucks, maybe even
Speaker 1: five bucks. I saw Harold Fannin go for four bucks
Speaker 1: the other night Tucker Kraft went for four bucks. You
Speaker 1: can get these guys cheap if you nominate them at
Speaker 1: the right time and if you're patient in getting one
Speaker 1: of the three. So if you see one of these
Speaker 1: guys going for five or six bucks, you need to
Speaker 1: be jumping in and just trying to grab them. I
Speaker 1: think that unlocks the rest of your roster because it's
Speaker 1: a cheap player who's got tight end one upside, the
Speaker 1: overall tight end one upside, or on their on their resume.
Speaker 1: In the case of Laporta or Craft and in the
Speaker 1: case of Fannin, we know we can be a tight end.
Speaker 1: It can be a top five tight end. We saw
Speaker 1: it last year, and we saw that as a rookie,
Speaker 1: and if they get slightly better quarterback play, which I'm
Speaker 1: not saying it's gonna be awesome, but slightly better. Because
Speaker 1: we know Sanders and Gabriel were trash, Watson can give
Speaker 1: them slightly better quarterback fan and could explode as well.
Speaker 1: So take a look at Loveland. But really, I just
Speaker 1: want you to take the cheapest one between Laporta, Craft
Speaker 1: and Fan, and I believe that combines the price and
Speaker 1: upside that we want to see to help us unlock
Speaker 1: our elite auction roster. All Right, folks, that's going to
Speaker 1: do it for today's episode of the Auction Brief. This
Speaker 1: is working out quite nicely. We're going to get you
Speaker 1: out under an hour. I hope you enjoyed the fourteen
Speaker 1: players that unlock your twenty twenty six auctions. I really
Speaker 1: believe in these guys as plays in your auction draft room.
Speaker 1: So before I let you go, don't forget. You can
Speaker 1: find me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF. You can
Speaker 1: find me on the Patreon network the Fantasy Football Lawyer
Speaker 1: for just four bucks a month, and don't forget to
Speaker 1: use my code Auction Brief at FJA Fantasy Sports to
Speaker 1: get ten percent off of your draft boards. Folks, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for all the support this summer on
Speaker 1: the auction Brief and support of the sour app summit.
Speaker 1: We're pushing through to the end. I hope you are
Speaker 1: learning a lot this summer. I'm learning a lot as
Speaker 1: I go through it. And hey, this has been a
Speaker 1: lot of fun already. We've got a couple of episodes left.
Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed today's episode. We will have got
Speaker 1: a few more left. Don't be sad. Don't be sad.
Speaker 1: I promise I'm gonna be here. I'm gonna be here
Speaker 1: all season long. I'm gonna be on serious, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be in the Patreon, I'm gonna be on Twitter. You
Speaker 1: know where to find me. We're gonna help you win titles.
Speaker 1: I love when I get messages from people after the season. Hey,
Speaker 1: I never did well in my home auction league. I
Speaker 1: found your podcast, and I did well this year. I
Speaker 1: hope we get a lot of those messages at the
Speaker 1: end of this season. Let's go crush your auctions. Let's
Speaker 1: go win some fantasy titles. The Auction Brief is adjourned
Speaker 1: and I am out the auction brief is adjourned. That'll
Speaker 1: do it for this week's episode. See you next time
Speaker 1: on the auction brief.