WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.040 --> 00:00:08.839 Welcome to the Auction Brief. There's a joy in these games. 2 00:00:08.919 --> 00:00:12.919 So now taking you on a journey through fantasy football, 3 00:00:13.279 --> 00:00:18.519 the law, and life. These all your day, It depends 4 00:00:18.559 --> 00:00:22.920 on how much you want. And now you're legal analyst 5 00:00:23.000 --> 00:00:25.839 and auction draft expert here to help you dominate your 6 00:00:25.879 --> 00:00:32.240 fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew Davenport. They're asked, full hearts, 7 00:00:33.079 --> 00:00:38.560 let's go play. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Auction Brief. 8 00:00:39.039 --> 00:00:41.240 As the lady said, I'm your host, Drew Davenport, and 9 00:00:41.280 --> 00:00:44.640 thank you so much for joining me for another episode 10 00:00:44.679 --> 00:00:47.640 of the Auction Brief this summer, and I am solo 11 00:00:47.759 --> 00:00:51.320 on the mic today talking to you about the fourteen 12 00:00:51.520 --> 00:00:57.359 players that unlock twenty twenty six auctions. Fourteen players that 13 00:00:57.520 --> 00:01:01.399 will unlock twenty twenty six auctions, and we're going to 14 00:01:01.439 --> 00:01:03.320 talk about exactly what that means, and then we're going 15 00:01:03.359 --> 00:01:06.319 to go through all of these players. Because it is 16 00:01:06.719 --> 00:01:10.200 that time we're on the mic this week. We have 17 00:01:10.319 --> 00:01:12.959 a show next week and I believe we have John 18 00:01:13.040 --> 00:01:16.280 Degel coming in for next week for discussions with Drew. 19 00:01:16.640 --> 00:01:19.000 I'll have my solo show and then we just have 20 00:01:19.280 --> 00:01:23.560 one more show after that that is the Auction Manifesto, 21 00:01:24.280 --> 00:01:27.680 and that will wrap the draft season for the Auction 22 00:01:27.840 --> 00:01:30.519 Brief podcast. That allows me a couple of weeks to 23 00:01:30.640 --> 00:01:33.920 get to some par sheets, to push content to the Patreon, 24 00:01:34.640 --> 00:01:37.680 and you know, I need that time to get you 25 00:01:37.760 --> 00:01:40.200 all ready for your drafts. And one thing that I 26 00:01:40.400 --> 00:01:44.200 learned since being at football guys is that if you 27 00:01:44.319 --> 00:01:47.760 put out good content too late in August, it really 28 00:01:47.879 --> 00:01:50.719 just irritates some people because they've already done their draft. 29 00:01:51.280 --> 00:01:53.920 So we don't want to be doing that. We don't 30 00:01:53.920 --> 00:01:57.200 want to be putting out content after you've had your draft. 31 00:01:57.640 --> 00:01:58.959 And I know that a lot of people are going 32 00:01:59.000 --> 00:02:01.480 to draft that last weekend in August and early September, 33 00:02:01.959 --> 00:02:04.159 but plenty of people are drafted in the next couple 34 00:02:04.200 --> 00:02:06.439 of weeks too, So we're trying to get that stuff 35 00:02:06.439 --> 00:02:08.680 out and that's why the Auction Brief will end with 36 00:02:08.840 --> 00:02:11.520 the final episode on the twentieth. There won't be any 37 00:02:11.560 --> 00:02:15.759 discussions with Drew that week as I perfect my manifesto. 38 00:02:16.520 --> 00:02:18.639 But today we're going to talk about fourteen players that 39 00:02:18.840 --> 00:02:23.080 unlock twenty twenty six auctions, and that word unlock is 40 00:02:23.159 --> 00:02:26.719 doing some heavy lifting for us because it's really important 41 00:02:26.719 --> 00:02:29.319 that you understand these aren't just fourteen players. I like, 42 00:02:29.800 --> 00:02:31.919 you know, we did that earlier in the summer, my 43 00:02:32.000 --> 00:02:34.639 guys for twenty twenty six, which we're going to update 44 00:02:34.639 --> 00:02:37.759 a little bit for the Patreon. But today's is about 45 00:02:38.000 --> 00:02:42.719 unlocking your auction and that means finding another level and 46 00:02:42.800 --> 00:02:45.400 I believe these players can do it because in large 47 00:02:45.439 --> 00:02:49.520 part some of them are tweeters or there's massive, massive 48 00:02:49.879 --> 00:02:53.680 value with their current ADP And you know, I hate 49 00:02:53.759 --> 00:02:55.560 using ADP, but we're going to talk about it because 50 00:02:55.560 --> 00:02:58.319 it is a good barometer for what we're dealing with 51 00:02:58.439 --> 00:03:01.560 in the room. And frankly, most of you aren't walking 52 00:03:01.639 --> 00:03:05.879 into a room full of analysts and experts from around 53 00:03:05.919 --> 00:03:08.520 the you know some of you are. That's totally fine, 54 00:03:08.840 --> 00:03:10.639 and this is still going to help you. But a 55 00:03:10.719 --> 00:03:12.599 lot of this is based on home leagues too, that 56 00:03:12.759 --> 00:03:15.080 you can go in and crush your home leagues because 57 00:03:15.159 --> 00:03:19.319 these values represent what people are doing right now in drafts, 58 00:03:19.360 --> 00:03:22.639 and I think that we're going to see that there 59 00:03:22.680 --> 00:03:25.960 are say, massive gaps here that we can exploit. So 60 00:03:26.639 --> 00:03:28.280 before I get to that, I want to thank everybody 61 00:03:28.439 --> 00:03:31.199 involved with the salary Cap summit this week. It's been 62 00:03:31.360 --> 00:03:34.120 an unbelievable success for the second year in a row. 63 00:03:34.800 --> 00:03:37.599 Very happy about how it turned out. Made a bit 64 00:03:37.680 --> 00:03:42.439 of a mistake Night one not streaming to Twitter. Whoopsies, 65 00:03:43.240 --> 00:03:45.400 but hey, we corrected that mistake the last two night. 66 00:03:46.680 --> 00:03:48.960 Last two nights, I think we were running about seven 67 00:03:49.039 --> 00:03:52.360 hundred people at one point on Sunday night, and then 68 00:03:52.400 --> 00:03:54.680 Monday night, I think we were running about four to 69 00:03:54.800 --> 00:03:57.240 five hundred. So hey, those are great numbers for a 70 00:03:57.319 --> 00:03:59.919 live stream. People got places to be and things to do, 71 00:04:00.159 --> 00:04:03.319 they're on vacation. I love those numbers and it tells 72 00:04:03.400 --> 00:04:06.439 me that people want more of this content. So thank 73 00:04:06.479 --> 00:04:08.240 you all for being there for the Salary Cap Summit. 74 00:04:08.560 --> 00:04:10.840 Year two is in the books, and hey, I'm not 75 00:04:10.960 --> 00:04:14.759 advertising for the expo, for my poker tournament for the 76 00:04:14.840 --> 00:04:17.360 Salary Cap Summit. All of that is behind us. Let's 77 00:04:17.360 --> 00:04:19.800 get down to the business of winning you some titles 78 00:04:20.079 --> 00:04:23.519 and get rid of the ancillary stuff, shall we. You 79 00:04:23.600 --> 00:04:25.959 can find me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF. You 80 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:28.800 can find me on the Patreon network the Fantasy Football Lawyer. 81 00:04:28.959 --> 00:04:30.920 Just four bucks a month for pushing a ton of 82 00:04:30.959 --> 00:04:33.959 content over there and ripping off custom par sheets. I'll 83 00:04:34.000 --> 00:04:37.160 have my rankings for you up very soon with all 84 00:04:37.199 --> 00:04:40.199 of my pricing, and that is only available to you 85 00:04:40.439 --> 00:04:43.040 my Patreon subscribers, So if you want that, you got 86 00:04:43.160 --> 00:04:46.079 to get over there and pay the four bucks. The 87 00:04:46.199 --> 00:04:49.120 final thing is, don't forget all of you out there 88 00:04:49.319 --> 00:04:51.839 ordering your draft boards. The best draft boards in the 89 00:04:51.879 --> 00:04:55.800 business are over at FJ Fantasy. I use FJAY Fantasy, 90 00:04:55.920 --> 00:04:58.800 have been using them for over a decade and I 91 00:04:58.920 --> 00:05:01.519 still use them to this day. Use my code auction 92 00:05:01.720 --> 00:05:03.720 brief and get ten percent off your order, so it's 93 00:05:03.759 --> 00:05:06.000 a few more bucks than the other draft boards you're 94 00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:07.680 gonna see. Like you're gonna go on Amazon, you can 95 00:05:07.720 --> 00:05:09.879 buy a crappy draft board for eighteen bucks. I get 96 00:05:09.959 --> 00:05:12.199 that these are going to be fifty with some shipping, 97 00:05:12.199 --> 00:05:14.480 you're probably gonna pay sixty, but then you get ten 98 00:05:14.519 --> 00:05:16.680 percent off of that. It really works out to about 99 00:05:16.680 --> 00:05:19.240 five bucks a piece in your draft. So hey, throw 100 00:05:19.319 --> 00:05:22.600 down a Lincoln, go get your draft board from FJA Fantasy, 101 00:05:22.839 --> 00:05:26.120 and use my code auction brief. All right, folks, that's 102 00:05:26.319 --> 00:05:28.560 going to do it for the preliminary stuff. What do 103 00:05:28.639 --> 00:05:31.680 you say we get into the fourteen players that unlock 104 00:05:31.839 --> 00:05:38.040 twenty twenty six auctions auction talk. So the best way 105 00:05:38.120 --> 00:05:40.480 I know how to describe what it means to unlock 106 00:05:40.600 --> 00:05:42.800 your auctions is to make a little bit of a 107 00:05:42.839 --> 00:05:46.519 poker analogy. Now this isn't a story, because you know, 108 00:05:46.639 --> 00:05:48.720 I don't like telling stories this time of year, because 109 00:05:48.800 --> 00:05:51.800 we need to get into this thing. But the analogy 110 00:05:51.879 --> 00:05:55.120 helps with understanding what I'm talking about here, because the 111 00:05:55.199 --> 00:05:57.639 word unlocked, like I said in the opening, does some 112 00:05:57.759 --> 00:06:00.160 heavy lifting here, and it's important that we understand what 113 00:06:00.279 --> 00:06:03.600 it means because I'm not talking about when I say unlock, 114 00:06:03.920 --> 00:06:06.639 I'm not talking about, Hey, these guys are awesome, and hey, 115 00:06:06.759 --> 00:06:09.920 these guys are values, and hey these guys. No, that's 116 00:06:10.000 --> 00:06:13.360 not what I'm doing. What I'm doing is I'm saying 117 00:06:13.399 --> 00:06:16.480 that if you want to build an elite roster, you 118 00:06:16.680 --> 00:06:18.800 have to find the players that are falling through the 119 00:06:18.879 --> 00:06:23.240 cracks of the public opinion an incredible value and upside 120 00:06:23.360 --> 00:06:27.519 at their current price that they completely unlock your roster 121 00:06:27.680 --> 00:06:30.120 if they hit. So now we're not going to talk 122 00:06:30.120 --> 00:06:33.199 about a bunch of two dollars lottery tickets here. We're 123 00:06:33.240 --> 00:06:36.560 talking about some very good players. The most important thing 124 00:06:36.600 --> 00:06:39.439 that I've learned to date is that these players are 125 00:06:39.519 --> 00:06:42.759 going cheaper than they should be. And for the most part, 126 00:06:42.839 --> 00:06:44.480 now some of these guys you're going to hear and 127 00:06:44.519 --> 00:06:46.480 you're going to say, well, that guy's not cheap. I'm 128 00:06:46.519 --> 00:06:49.480 not saying cheap. They're cheaper, and I believe that they 129 00:06:49.560 --> 00:06:52.279 have massive upside for the price that I'm seeing in auctions. 130 00:06:52.800 --> 00:06:54.959 And I've done a ton of them this summer, and 131 00:06:55.079 --> 00:06:59.040 now I've actually done some actual drafts here as well, 132 00:06:59.560 --> 00:07:02.879 and well ahead of when I was last summer. I've 133 00:07:03.040 --> 00:07:05.160 noticed some things that I think are going to help us. 134 00:07:05.920 --> 00:07:08.439 But let me make the analogy here to poker about 135 00:07:08.600 --> 00:07:12.160 unlocking your twenty twenty six auctions, because something that I 136 00:07:12.360 --> 00:07:14.920 have noticed in my game that's a leak in my game. 137 00:07:15.879 --> 00:07:18.680 It probably wasn't a leak five years ago, but the 138 00:07:18.759 --> 00:07:21.439 game of poker has changed quite a bit. And one 139 00:07:21.480 --> 00:07:24.120 of the things that people are doing and stressing more 140 00:07:24.720 --> 00:07:27.439 and I really believe in it, is opening up your 141 00:07:27.519 --> 00:07:31.000 range for three betting pre flop. So let me make 142 00:07:32.319 --> 00:07:34.920 just a quick explanation out of this so that you 143 00:07:35.040 --> 00:07:37.639 know what a three bet is. But when somebody raises 144 00:07:37.680 --> 00:07:39.680 before the flop, let's say the blinds are fifty to 145 00:07:39.759 --> 00:07:42.639 one hundred the big blind puts in one hundred, and 146 00:07:42.720 --> 00:07:45.360 then somebody raises to three hundred. When you say you 147 00:07:45.560 --> 00:07:47.959 three bet that person, it's not a reference to the 148 00:07:48.160 --> 00:07:50.959 size of your bet. It's a reference to the fact 149 00:07:51.000 --> 00:07:53.160 that you're putting in a third bet before the flop. 150 00:07:54.040 --> 00:07:56.360 The initial bet is the big blind at one hundred, 151 00:07:56.680 --> 00:07:58.920 The second bet is the raise to three hundred. The 152 00:07:59.040 --> 00:08:01.120 third bet, your bet bet is a raise from the 153 00:08:01.199 --> 00:08:05.839 three hundred. Okay. Now, I'm generally a really tight three 154 00:08:06.000 --> 00:08:09.079 bet player, and this creates a problem for me with 155 00:08:09.199 --> 00:08:11.759 really good poker players. And what I've been trying to 156 00:08:11.839 --> 00:08:15.600 do is stress playing higher buy in higher guaranteed events 157 00:08:15.839 --> 00:08:17.720 because I don't have very much time to grind the 158 00:08:17.759 --> 00:08:20.319 lower stakes. I used to grind the lower stakes and 159 00:08:20.360 --> 00:08:22.519 that gave me a bankroll for some of the bigger tournaments. 160 00:08:23.160 --> 00:08:25.560 But I can't go down there and play two to 161 00:08:25.600 --> 00:08:28.120 three tournaments a week anymore and grind out a nice 162 00:08:28.120 --> 00:08:30.120 little profit at the one hundred dollars tournaments. I can't 163 00:08:30.120 --> 00:08:31.920 do that anymore. I don't have the time, you know, 164 00:08:32.000 --> 00:08:34.399 I don't have the time. So instead I'm going to 165 00:08:34.480 --> 00:08:37.279 these higher buy and events where the players are much 166 00:08:37.360 --> 00:08:40.799 better and if you're only three betting when you have aces, kings, 167 00:08:40.919 --> 00:08:44.799 ace king and queens when you're in position. They know that, right, 168 00:08:45.000 --> 00:08:48.120 they know that. So it's a leak in the game, 169 00:08:48.639 --> 00:08:51.000 not just because they're going to fold when you three bet, 170 00:08:51.639 --> 00:08:54.679 but on top of that, you can unlock the upside 171 00:08:54.759 --> 00:08:58.759 of your game by opening up your three bet profile, 172 00:08:59.159 --> 00:09:03.480 and your three befile is learning to open with a 173 00:09:03.600 --> 00:09:06.240 wider range of hands on a three bet and learning 174 00:09:06.360 --> 00:09:11.080 to in position really expand your three bet range. I 175 00:09:11.200 --> 00:09:12.679 saw a solver the other day. I don't know if 176 00:09:12.679 --> 00:09:14.559 you guys know what solvers are, but they talk about 177 00:09:14.559 --> 00:09:16.879 what you should do pre flop based on what's happened 178 00:09:16.879 --> 00:09:18.879 in front of you. And I saw a solver the 179 00:09:18.960 --> 00:09:20.919 other day saying, if you're on the button with King 180 00:09:21.039 --> 00:09:24.320 eight suited or better, you should be three betting more 181 00:09:24.399 --> 00:09:27.200 often than you think. And I don't disagree with this. 182 00:09:27.320 --> 00:09:28.440 And I don't know if I can get to that 183 00:09:28.600 --> 00:09:31.320 level of aggression, but I can certainly get a little 184 00:09:31.320 --> 00:09:33.720 bit further there. And what does that do well? It 185 00:09:34.000 --> 00:09:37.039 unlocks your ceiling because then when you get the actual 186 00:09:37.120 --> 00:09:39.799 hand where you three bet and you have it, then 187 00:09:39.879 --> 00:09:42.720 you get paid off. And when you only three bet 188 00:09:42.799 --> 00:09:45.919 the aces and kings. You don't have a ceiling unless 189 00:09:46.039 --> 00:09:49.080 you get incredibly lucky to have a cooler on somebody, 190 00:09:49.399 --> 00:09:51.919 and a cooler is just getting lucky to have kings 191 00:09:51.960 --> 00:09:55.720 against queens or aces against kings, or flopping a set 192 00:09:55.799 --> 00:09:58.960 on somebody when they flop top two pair. You can't 193 00:09:59.039 --> 00:10:02.480 rely on cooler the entire time you're playing poker, or 194 00:10:02.519 --> 00:10:06.919 else you'll never make money. So unlocking your ceiling at 195 00:10:06.960 --> 00:10:10.440 poker is all about learning to unlock your three bet range, 196 00:10:11.120 --> 00:10:14.279 and that's what we're doing in the auctions today. We're 197 00:10:14.399 --> 00:10:18.039 trying to find the situations where we ordinarily might feel 198 00:10:18.080 --> 00:10:20.679 a little bit uncomfortable with what's going on in front 199 00:10:20.679 --> 00:10:23.480 of us. But if it works out, and if we 200 00:10:23.639 --> 00:10:27.799 continue to stress the idea and the theory of going 201 00:10:27.879 --> 00:10:32.720 after these type of players, it will unlock monstrous rosters. 202 00:10:33.080 --> 00:10:38.399 It will unlock these massively successful championship rosters. Anybody who 203 00:10:38.480 --> 00:10:40.639 knows Jim Coventry, who's a good friend of the show, 204 00:10:41.240 --> 00:10:44.080 he had an unbelievable season in The King's Classic last year, 205 00:10:44.480 --> 00:10:47.039 and really what it came down to was he made 206 00:10:47.080 --> 00:10:49.519 some of those bets and they all paid off at 207 00:10:49.559 --> 00:10:51.480 once and that's gonna happen. Sometimes you're gonna have that 208 00:10:51.559 --> 00:10:54.840 magical season. But even if they don't all pay off exactly, 209 00:10:55.559 --> 00:10:58.559 most of the plays I have in today's show are 210 00:10:58.679 --> 00:11:02.519 about unlocking the of your roster because of the correct 211 00:11:02.600 --> 00:11:06.039 price in or upside that allow you to spend elsewhere. 212 00:11:06.799 --> 00:11:08.559 And sometimes you're gonna have to go spend for a 213 00:11:08.600 --> 00:11:11.799 player that you don't necessarily think is a quote unquote value, 214 00:11:12.720 --> 00:11:15.080 like when I paid for aman Ross Brown for forty 215 00:11:15.159 --> 00:11:18.399 nine dollars. That's not a value. But you don't get 216 00:11:18.559 --> 00:11:21.600 value on elite players. So if you get some of 217 00:11:21.679 --> 00:11:24.039 these other players on your team, you can go for 218 00:11:24.240 --> 00:11:27.600 elite players, or you can build deeper, or you can 219 00:11:28.519 --> 00:11:33.080 select multiple players from this list and have an incredible roster. 220 00:11:34.000 --> 00:11:36.600 So that's what I mean by unlocking our auctions. These 221 00:11:36.639 --> 00:11:38.480 aren't the best players, or else I just go say 222 00:11:38.600 --> 00:11:41.799 I like Jean Robinson, these aren't the most valuable players, 223 00:11:41.879 --> 00:11:44.120 or else I go pick some chump in the fourteenth 224 00:11:44.200 --> 00:11:46.039 round and say hype him up and say he's going 225 00:11:46.120 --> 00:11:48.720 to be great. And these aren't the players that I 226 00:11:48.799 --> 00:11:51.519 think that everyone hates either, because I think people like 227 00:11:51.600 --> 00:11:53.879 a lot of these guys. But I kind of don't 228 00:11:53.960 --> 00:11:56.679 care because I still like where they're being drafted, and 229 00:11:56.759 --> 00:11:59.159 I still believe people are sleeping on them to a degree. 230 00:11:59.799 --> 00:12:02.799 So part of the unlock feature that I'm talking about 231 00:12:02.840 --> 00:12:05.559 for today is that we do have a little bit 232 00:12:05.759 --> 00:12:09.600 of missed priced players. I will say that that's part 233 00:12:09.679 --> 00:12:12.440 of what we're doing here. And when I say unlocked, 234 00:12:12.559 --> 00:12:15.960 let me say the final comment here, which is that 235 00:12:16.720 --> 00:12:20.240 when you land these players, it opens up a new 236 00:12:20.519 --> 00:12:24.679 avenue of upside for your roster. And that's why I 237 00:12:24.919 --> 00:12:29.279 use that term. So finding these players for the correct 238 00:12:29.399 --> 00:12:34.279 price unlocks an upside for your auction draft that you 239 00:12:34.360 --> 00:12:37.039 didn't know you had before. So let's hit the fourteen 240 00:12:37.120 --> 00:12:47.399 players that unlock twenty twenty six auction. All right, We're 241 00:12:47.399 --> 00:12:49.600 gonna go right down the board here, just like you're 242 00:12:49.639 --> 00:12:52.679 looking at a fantasy roster. Quarterback, first running back, second, 243 00:12:52.799 --> 00:12:56.480 wide receiver, third, tight end, last, and we're gonna hit 244 00:12:56.720 --> 00:12:58.279 every one of these guys. And I'll tell you what, 245 00:12:58.759 --> 00:13:01.200 I don't know how long it's gonna go. We're about 246 00:13:01.200 --> 00:13:05.039 fifteen minutes into the show. It may go thirty eight minutes, 247 00:13:05.240 --> 00:13:08.360 it may go, oh, you know, an hour and five minutes. 248 00:13:08.399 --> 00:13:10.320 I'm not really sure, but I will tell you this. 249 00:13:10.799 --> 00:13:13.320 I looked up some pretty dank stats for all of 250 00:13:13.399 --> 00:13:19.240 these guys, and oh man, some dank stats. Bro, Duke, 251 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:23.080 where have you been all summer? My blood? Where have 252 00:13:23.279 --> 00:13:27.480 you been? Oh? My gosh, Dukes here? Yeah, I'm here, Bro, 253 00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:32.519 give me the dank stats. Bro. Okay, let's be serious, Drew. 254 00:13:33.440 --> 00:13:38.080 These stats, I believe are why these players unlock your roster. Okay, 255 00:13:38.240 --> 00:13:40.639 So I'm not just throwing a bunch of stuff at 256 00:13:40.679 --> 00:13:42.799 your ear hole, but I will say, in the next 257 00:13:42.879 --> 00:13:45.960 thirty minutes, I'm gonna cram some stuff in that brain. 258 00:13:46.399 --> 00:13:50.799 So buckle up, get ready. Let's go at quarterback. The 259 00:13:50.919 --> 00:13:52.919 first guy I want to talk about is Drake May, 260 00:13:53.360 --> 00:13:57.399 but he is not my key strategy here. The thing 261 00:13:57.480 --> 00:14:00.200 I've noticed though, in the max this summer, in the 262 00:14:00.279 --> 00:14:03.120 drafts I've done, is that there are some rooms where 263 00:14:03.159 --> 00:14:06.159 they really respect Drake May and there are some rooms 264 00:14:06.200 --> 00:14:09.960 where they just don't care. So if you think that 265 00:14:10.080 --> 00:14:12.080 Drake May is an option for you, you need to 266 00:14:12.200 --> 00:14:17.360 nominate him before Josh Allen and hopefully before Lamar Jackson. 267 00:14:18.159 --> 00:14:20.759 If you don't get him out there before those two guys, 268 00:14:20.799 --> 00:14:22.679 then you just need to wait as long as possible 269 00:14:22.879 --> 00:14:25.320 to get him out there and kind of mentally reserve 270 00:14:25.679 --> 00:14:27.440 what you think you can afford to pay for him. 271 00:14:28.120 --> 00:14:30.320 Drake May is the first one. I guess. I just 272 00:14:30.559 --> 00:14:34.360 don't understand at this point what people want in order 273 00:14:34.559 --> 00:14:37.200 to say that May is a guy that they want 274 00:14:37.240 --> 00:14:39.559 to be in on this year, because I really thought 275 00:14:39.679 --> 00:14:43.000 after his performance last year that we'd see a crazy 276 00:14:43.120 --> 00:14:46.440 runaway train of hype for May, and yet we're not 277 00:14:46.519 --> 00:14:48.840 seeing it. And here's the weird part. It's not as 278 00:14:48.879 --> 00:14:52.159 if he lost some guys, or that the offensive line 279 00:14:52.240 --> 00:14:55.639 got worse, or that the coaching staff got worse or 280 00:14:55.720 --> 00:14:59.039 anything like that. In fact, it's quite the opposite. They've 281 00:14:59.080 --> 00:15:01.960 got another year under his belt for Treyvon Henderson, an 282 00:15:02.000 --> 00:15:05.519 explosive player. They've still got Romandre Stevenson. They have the 283 00:15:05.600 --> 00:15:09.159 same coaching staff and offense in place, and they went 284 00:15:09.320 --> 00:15:14.080 and added two veteran explosive wide receivers. They added Aj 285 00:15:14.240 --> 00:15:17.559 Brown and Romeo Dobbs. Both of those guys are veterans man, 286 00:15:17.759 --> 00:15:20.399 they're both really good players. What are we doing? Drake 287 00:15:20.559 --> 00:15:23.639 May needs to be in the top two or three 288 00:15:23.720 --> 00:15:26.639 conversation in every draft, and I'm not seeing that. People 289 00:15:26.759 --> 00:15:29.679 care enough, all right. So if you can get May 290 00:15:30.000 --> 00:15:32.080 for a reasonable price, and I know I'm going to 291 00:15:32.120 --> 00:15:33.840 say that a lot, I'm going to try to give 292 00:15:33.879 --> 00:15:35.679 you some examples, but I don't really want you to 293 00:15:35.799 --> 00:15:39.279 stick exactly to the prices I'm telling you. But I 294 00:15:39.440 --> 00:15:42.960 really like May around ten dollars or less. If I 295 00:15:43.000 --> 00:15:44.720 can get him for ten or less, I'm gonna feel 296 00:15:44.720 --> 00:15:47.120 pretty good. I'm not that excited about being in the 297 00:15:47.159 --> 00:15:50.399 twelve to fourteen dollars business, even though I think that's okay. 298 00:15:50.720 --> 00:15:53.679 I think that's okay, but I'm not sure that unlocks 299 00:15:53.720 --> 00:15:56.600 your roster at that price. I think it unlocks your 300 00:15:56.679 --> 00:15:59.440 roster at eight bucks, at nine bucks, maybe ten bucks. 301 00:16:00.200 --> 00:16:02.200 All right, So get him out there before the top 302 00:16:02.279 --> 00:16:05.200 two guys, or wait as long as you can. The 303 00:16:05.320 --> 00:16:08.200 next two guys are the guys that my strategy really 304 00:16:08.360 --> 00:16:11.320 revolves around. And I think one guy's not going to 305 00:16:11.399 --> 00:16:14.960 surprise you. One guy might surprise you. The first guy 306 00:16:15.039 --> 00:16:18.240 that probably won't is Trevor Lawrence. And once again, I 307 00:16:18.360 --> 00:16:21.559 can't really get my mind around why people don't like 308 00:16:21.639 --> 00:16:24.919 Trevor Lawrence more. Now he has gone for a few 309 00:16:25.000 --> 00:16:27.080 more dollars than I thought he would go for in 310 00:16:27.159 --> 00:16:30.600 a couple instances, but for the most part, I've been 311 00:16:30.639 --> 00:16:34.519 seeing people land Lawrence for less than five dollars, more 312 00:16:34.679 --> 00:16:37.879 likely three or four. In most draft rooms, that is 313 00:16:37.960 --> 00:16:41.360 an insane value. Let's not forget what he did last year. 314 00:16:41.840 --> 00:16:43.080 At the end of the year. He was on an 315 00:16:43.120 --> 00:16:46.000 incredible run where I think he finishes the QB two 316 00:16:46.519 --> 00:16:49.919 after their bye last year. And I don't want to 317 00:16:50.039 --> 00:16:52.919 undersell the fact that Liam Cohen likes his running back 318 00:16:53.039 --> 00:16:56.080 or excuse me, likes his quarterbacks to run. I guess 319 00:16:56.120 --> 00:16:59.039 that was a Freudian slip. He likes his quarterbacks to run. 320 00:16:59.639 --> 00:17:02.879 He had nine rushing tds last year, but let's step 321 00:17:02.960 --> 00:17:04.680 back from that. I mean he had twenty nine passing, 322 00:17:04.960 --> 00:17:07.759 nine rushing. The guy had thirty eight touchdowns, and you 323 00:17:07.839 --> 00:17:10.759 can get him for three bucks, like what Like, he 324 00:17:10.839 --> 00:17:14.519 didn't have some crazy insane TD rate. Now, nine rushing 325 00:17:14.559 --> 00:17:17.799 touchdowns that's a lot, okay, So let's expect that to 326 00:17:17.880 --> 00:17:20.640 fall back, right But over the course of his career, 327 00:17:21.000 --> 00:17:23.039 he's a guy that gets three hundred rushing yards and 328 00:17:23.079 --> 00:17:27.000 four touchdowns on the ground. That's his basically, that's his floor. 329 00:17:27.640 --> 00:17:31.440 And we're discounting the fact that This is a rushing quarterback, 330 00:17:32.400 --> 00:17:34.119 and if you can get him for three bucks, that's 331 00:17:34.160 --> 00:17:36.599 what I want you to do. That unlocks your whole roster, 332 00:17:37.119 --> 00:17:40.160 because there is a very good argument that Trevor Lawrence 333 00:17:40.240 --> 00:17:42.559 is a top five or six option this year quarterback 334 00:17:42.759 --> 00:17:45.119 and you're getting him for three dollars. That's what I 335 00:17:45.240 --> 00:17:48.680 mean by unlock and stuff. The second quarterback is a 336 00:17:48.759 --> 00:17:51.640 guy that I wouldn't mind you pairing with Trevor Lawrence, 337 00:17:52.119 --> 00:17:54.440 and that's bo Nix. And I think that you can 338 00:17:54.519 --> 00:17:57.079 get bo Nicks for a similar price to Lawrence or less. 339 00:17:58.240 --> 00:17:59.920 I think that you can write on your par sheets 340 00:18:00.000 --> 00:18:02.839 six or seven dollars and get both of these guys, 341 00:18:03.599 --> 00:18:05.279 and if you end up paying eight for them, so 342 00:18:05.440 --> 00:18:08.559 what Listen to what bo Nicks has done. And in 343 00:18:08.599 --> 00:18:11.440 the two seasons that he's been in the NFL, he's 344 00:18:11.440 --> 00:18:14.640 finished as a top ten quarterback both seasons. He has 345 00:18:14.680 --> 00:18:17.279 almost eight hundred rushing yards through two years, and he 346 00:18:17.359 --> 00:18:20.640 has nine rushing tds through two years. Now. I didn't 347 00:18:20.680 --> 00:18:23.680 mention his passing stats because they're not super special. But 348 00:18:24.599 --> 00:18:29.920 see may comment Drake about my next comment. Why don't 349 00:18:30.000 --> 00:18:32.400 people care more about a guy who just got an 350 00:18:32.440 --> 00:18:39.279 incredibly explosive, young talented receiver. Bo Nicks just got Jaylen Waddle. 351 00:18:40.079 --> 00:18:43.160 This matters. I mean, we may not see them firing 352 00:18:43.200 --> 00:18:45.000 on all cylinders in the first couple of weeks, but 353 00:18:45.039 --> 00:18:47.200 if people are down on them after four or five weeks, 354 00:18:47.559 --> 00:18:51.720 go get Boonicks and Jaylen Waddle these guys. I don't 355 00:18:51.799 --> 00:18:54.480 understand what we have to do for these guys to 356 00:18:54.559 --> 00:18:57.559 be valued higher, and I understand there's other guys standing 357 00:18:57.599 --> 00:18:59.440 in the way, but when you're in an auction, you 358 00:18:59.519 --> 00:19:02.279 don't care. Go get Lawrence and Boennix. I think it's 359 00:19:02.319 --> 00:19:04.240 going to unlock the rest of your roster because you 360 00:19:04.400 --> 00:19:08.279 have this incredible rushing floor from both of these quarterbacks, 361 00:19:08.519 --> 00:19:10.119 and you're gonna do it for five or six bucks. 362 00:19:10.759 --> 00:19:13.680 That's how you unlock the possibilities for the rest of 363 00:19:13.720 --> 00:19:16.400 the skill positions. All right, those are my three quarterbacks 364 00:19:23.920 --> 00:19:27.160 at running back. I've got four for you, and I 365 00:19:27.279 --> 00:19:30.319 have what I would call an honorable mention that doesn't 366 00:19:30.359 --> 00:19:33.079 figure into the fourteen. It's just an honorable mention because 367 00:19:33.079 --> 00:19:36.440 I want to mention it. I want to. It's my show, 368 00:19:36.480 --> 00:19:39.759 and I want to The first player that I want 369 00:19:39.759 --> 00:19:42.720 to talk about at running back is Breece Hall. Now 370 00:19:43.079 --> 00:19:45.599 I don't want to. Don't groan and roll your eyes 371 00:19:45.640 --> 00:19:48.799 and turn the podcast off. Let me tell you that 372 00:19:49.079 --> 00:19:52.240 I don't love investing in the Jets offense. I get it, 373 00:19:52.920 --> 00:19:54.839 but Breece Hall is one of those guys that I 374 00:19:54.920 --> 00:19:59.039 think qualifies exactly as a tweener. Let me say this 375 00:19:59.119 --> 00:20:01.720 that Football Guys have him projected as the RB twelve 376 00:20:01.839 --> 00:20:05.319 this year. Now I'm not saying that's the gold standard 377 00:20:05.359 --> 00:20:07.480 or that's the bible, but we have some smart guys 378 00:20:07.559 --> 00:20:09.920 doing projections over at Football Guys, and if they think 379 00:20:09.960 --> 00:20:13.680 he's the RB twelve, I'm listening now. We don't even 380 00:20:13.759 --> 00:20:16.440 need him to be a low end RB one because 381 00:20:16.519 --> 00:20:19.640 right now his price tag is roughly RB fourteen or 382 00:20:19.799 --> 00:20:24.119 RB fifteen. And the reason that tweeners work out so 383 00:20:24.319 --> 00:20:27.240 well is because people don't want them and they don't 384 00:20:27.279 --> 00:20:29.960 know what to do with them. So people don't really 385 00:20:30.079 --> 00:20:33.000 want brisall, even though they know he's good, and so 386 00:20:33.039 --> 00:20:34.680 they don't really know what to do with him. So 387 00:20:34.759 --> 00:20:36.839 a lot of times we're seeing him in the neighborhood 388 00:20:36.839 --> 00:20:40.039 of twenty two to twenty seven dollars, and you're talking 389 00:20:40.079 --> 00:20:43.480 about a guy that has possible RB one upside, so 390 00:20:43.839 --> 00:20:46.119 you can do whatever you want with him. If you 391 00:20:46.240 --> 00:20:47.960 want to put him in the RB one spot and 392 00:20:48.039 --> 00:20:51.000 spend more money at receiver, you can do that because 393 00:20:51.039 --> 00:20:54.640 he's going to approach RB one range if that offense 394 00:20:54.720 --> 00:20:58.559 is functional at all. I'm looking at Fantasy Points data suite, 395 00:20:59.319 --> 00:21:02.599 Breesehall had the fourth highest explosive run percentage in the 396 00:21:02.799 --> 00:21:07.160 entire NFL last year. Explosive run percentages the percentage of 397 00:21:07.240 --> 00:21:10.079 carries where the running back took the ball for fifteen 398 00:21:10.160 --> 00:21:13.559 or more yards, fourth in the NFL. On a dumpster 399 00:21:13.720 --> 00:21:17.839 fire offense, he's fourth in the NFL and explosive run percentage. 400 00:21:18.599 --> 00:21:21.359 He was tenth in the NFL in miss tackles forced 401 00:21:21.640 --> 00:21:24.640