Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start this show by
being transparent, and yesterday it was a positive day for myself.
Talked out the first quarter over nine and a half
for that football game. It was an easy winner and
WNBA had the under. I said that it will still
be good at one fifty nine. I had one sixty
one and a half cash no matter what number you got,
so nice to one all day for myself. Try to
keep that going here today be no good to be
back with you. It is Friday, last day of the week.
I was yesterday for you. How you doing today?
Speaker 2: I am good today. Skip Yesterday was I guess you
could say good slash not great. Record wise, let's put
it that way.
Speaker 3: Two and two.
Speaker 2: But the top play was the Atlanta team total over.
They did get over eighty points. We talked about that yesterday.
Didn't win the game, but they got over eighty points
also when we talked out and I texted this to
you after we got the victory. When we talked out
that first quarter over nine and a half, I went
ahead and released it. The clients played it. Myself thought
that was going to be a good play, and it
wound up being that those scripted drive ski those first
two boom boom right down the field. I did also though,
and even on this show here, I left it as
my best bet. Atlanta first quarter and the Fever had
the lead at the end of one twenty nine to
twenty seven.
Speaker 3: So that was bad.
Speaker 2: And I'm thinking of something else I had that didn't
because I went two and two, but I made a
slight bit of money, so that that's basically how it went.
Speaker 3: Too and two made a very little profit.
Speaker 1: I mean, I honestly can't believe that the Fever won,
like the Dreams should. Dreams should be ashamed of themselves
for real, Like I don't know, they just kind of
crumbled to end the season, like they around the All
Star break, they started playing their best basketball of the season,
and it was going all the way, all the way
until what I want to say. They were still playing
good until just game two or no game one, game one,
they were like bad offensively. They still play good defense,
but it's like what happened to the dream But got
to shout out those those Fever players. No matter how
many players are down, you know, everybody else stepped up
and now we'll see them face the ass so we'll
be interesting. Yeah, they're very happy. A J almost couldn't
believe it when they told her that she's facing the fever. Yeah,
so I didn't even look at the odds for that,
but I know it would be pretty crazy. We have
another game to talk about here today in the w
we have a college football game to talk about that
goes off today. I know we started late, we don't
have the most time. We'll talk a little bit of
NFL too, Maybe not the biggest college football week on
this show, but we'll talk a little bit of everything here.
And Ukapur in the chat as well, says can't believe
the dream lost for sure. All right, let's get to it,
you know, well, I mean, you know how we do
around here. We'll do ladies first, So let me get
back to it. Ladies first means Liberty and Mercury six
oh seven six o eight opened up Mercury minus one.
I'm seeing pretty much two and a half everywhere I
do see it. Three see it too, so line shot,
depending what you like. As far as the total it
did up in one fifty six and a half, I
still see one of those juice to the under, but
the consensus line is one fifty five and a half.
As far as an injury report, I mean, I'm pretty
sure we're getting everybody here today. Yeah, nobody on the
injury report here. You know, Phoenix could have very easily
swept the Liberty. I mean that we talked about that.
You know that last shot from Melissa Thomas in game one.
Routinely makes those shots, and they just fell short and overtime.
But they came out and they put I mean they
put bell to ask. That's the only way to say it.
As far as in New York, they did it that
quite that crowd was quiet real quick or after that
first quarter, they got real quiet in there. And man,
with the limited Stewie, it's just we saw what they
looked like when they when they don't have Stewie. We
saw what they look like. And if you have a
very limited Stewie, I mean you're either putting her out
there and playing almost four on five, or you know,
you're just not getting the best version of the Liberty.
For the Mercury, they play some really good defense. They
were hounding the Liberty and they got out and ran.
They ran, ran, ran, ran, Ran. I think they had
twenty fast breakpoints Alyssa Thomas, you know, that's that's where
she thrives, getting out in transition. So I like what
I've seen from the Mercury. They're at home again. It
makes me think that they should be, you know, their
favorite for a reason. They should get the w here.
I mean, just with that, do you think I mean
it almost looked like the Liberty gave up already in
that last game. How are you feeling about the side
in this one?
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, I feel the same way Phoenix. For
what it's worth, the power readings that I keep made
Phoenix a three point favorite. They're two and a half.
So the numbers in line. It's not like you're paying
any kind of tax or anything. But I'll just add
a couple of external factors to what you said.
Speaker 3: Ski.
Speaker 2: If you're just reading body language of these two teams
right now, you're playing Phoenix, you're not playing New York.
I feel like if you played in New York, you're
almost asking New York, based on reputation, to pull a
rabbit out their backside to win this thing. Because again,
when Satu is motivated and she came off of that
two of seventeen with a point to prove, and you
put her in a list of Thomas together and it's
pretty tough. As you mentioned, that fast break scoring was
twenty to two in favor of Phoenix. Phoenix scored twenty
five off liberty turnovers. And there's times where Sabrine de
Ganescu just looks like she can't handle their pressure. She's
forcing up shot her shot when it was released the
other night. When you watch her shooting threes, you never
felt like those things were going in. She's three or
thirteen from the floor again bat three point shooting. Now,
head coach Sandy Brondela, she benched her, you know, starting
core for the fourth quarter and let the they're deep
enough to let a reserve five go out there to
try and save some energy. But I don't know that
you had. I don't think they have near as much
energy as what Phoenix is showing me right now. Again,
I just made this point on a previous show, and
we'll just reiterated here. Yeah, maybe she didn't do it
the right way when Dowana Bonner forced her way out
of Indiana, but she's been a godsend for that Phoenix
bench because she comes off the bench and basically every
night she's as consistent as they come offensively, providing bench
points of course, one of the greatest scores in WNBA history.
It's just another factor to help that youth that we
talk about with Phoenix ski if they shoot anywhere, let's
just say, if they shoot thirty six, thirty seven, thirty
eight percent from three, they're gonna win this game, because
the only time Phoenix goes really bad is when they
just can't buy a three. But I don't see that
happening here. I think they're the tougher team, they're the
quicker team. They're gonna be in an energized building tonight.
So I like Phoenix mighty two.
Speaker 3: And a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, they're I mean, maybe some of with Sabrina's
you know, struggles come from just being tired. I mean,
they're picking on their all game on defense. I think
the first half they were like and again I had
a few while I was watching the game, so but
I'm pretty sure they were picking on her, Like first
it was like going straight at her, like whoever she
was guarding, I feel like, and then in the second
half it was like they were putting whoever she was
guarding as a screener and just going after her that way,
getting downhill and going after her that way. So I
know she was tired being in every single action having
to try to carry the load offensively. And it's gonna
be a lot of that again, you know here in
this game. I'm sure they'll have some kind of plan.
But I mean talk a little bit about the total here,
rob one fifty five and a half, pretty sure the
lowest one that we've seen in this series. But that
fast break I mean the fast breakpoints in the last one,
twenty for the Mercury. I think they had around twenty
in the first game too, But that has to be
some kind of point of emphasis for the Liberty. I mean,
twenty to two fast breakpoints. You're not gonna be winning
those games, you know, so in my mind, when you
get blown out like that, And that's if I was
the coach, that's the first emphasis I would have. We
got to get back on defense and stop them in transition.
And outside of that, I just feel like these are
two teams really people playing good defense. You know, Situationally,
it sets up, you know, is win or go home.
We know what that means. So I think it's low
for a reason. I think under it's the preferred side
as far as total total goes in the opinion there.
Speaker 2: And maybe even Liberty team total underski unless you think
there's gonna be some kind of bounce back. Let me
just read you the scores that the Liberty have put
up in five of the last six quarters in this
series before overtime. In the third quarter they scored eleven
of Game one, they scored ten in the fourth, So
that's eleven and ten in the second quarter of Game two,
twelve ten in the third thirteen thirteen is the highest
point total they've recorded in that quarter in five of
the last six.
Speaker 3: They can't get anything on tracked. Here.
Speaker 2: The surrounding cast that actually is pretty good shooters. Phoebush
is a good shooter. Natasha Clouds should score. Meiserman should score,
but none of them are. Hey, look, I don't know.
Like I said earlier, the other team looks like the
fiercer group, the more motivated group New York. I don't
want to say they're the champions. Shouldn't you scared? But
they just had that like deer in the headlights. Look
the supporting cast, like we don't really want the ball.
Mesaman looked lousy in that game. Leonie Phoebus, her shot
didn't look right. So I don't know, maybe a New
York team total under unless you really think that, you
know they're going to bounce back and get it right.
Speaker 3: I know.
Speaker 2: I use that particular argument in favor of my play
with the Atlanta Dream last night. I thought their core
three had played so bad they'd have to play better,
and maybe you could use that argument here for the
New York Liberty. But seventy it's going to be a
tall hill for them to climb to get the seventy
eight points tonight. I see the consensus line here as
seventy seven. So seventy eight for the Liberty, I'm not
so sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if you put together the way we're feeling,
you know, at least you know Mercury and you know under,
that's what you get Liberty team total. A couple of
things from the chat I agree with Paul Savaly is
a key. She's also one of my favorite players. Jorges
mentioning that the first half totals at seventy nine and
a half with the full game is one fifty five
and a half shaded for a little bit more points
in the first half, and I mean it makes sense.
I mean, think of what we've seen in these these
other you know, elimination win or go home games. It
gets really really tight in that second half. So that's
something to think about. And Brian, that should probably answer
your question about this first quarter. Under doesn't mean it
can't hit, but I wouldn't want to specifically, just you know,
look at the first quarter. I think Mark says unders
for everything. Yeah, still be playing on the spring to
mcl all things that you have to take into consideration.
So I think we did a pretty good job breaking
down this game, Rob, you know, I think we can,
you know, take it off the hardwood. We'll go and
look at let's get some football here, and we do
have one game today, so let's talk about that first.
That means three oh seven, three oh eight Iowa and
Ruggers opened up minus two for Iowa. I'm gonna call
that still the consensus. I mean it's between one and
a half and I see two and a halfs out there,
so we'll say too, still total open forty five and
a half and it's just highest forty six and a half.
A few of them out there actually, and Vino I am.
I mean, I'm not the most knowledgeable about every single
college football team, but what I do know about Iowa
is they're not a team that's known to be playing
high scoring games. And from what I've seen from Ruggers
so far this year, their defense is ass I mean,
if if Iowa can't score on this defense, and it's
gonna be, it's gonna be tough for them this season.
So I can understand just based on Ruggers defense, why
is totals going up? How are you doing this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: If you take the other matchup with that, Ski, Rutgers
is dependent upon their offense this year. They're just a
different team. I mean, public perception of Rutgers for the
last twenty years and rightfully so all defense can't score,
but that's it's totally flipped this year, and it started
to flip late last year. Rutgers started scoring points with
the new quarterback counting Caucus. They just don't stop up.
In simplest terms, they played Miami of Ohio, which is
probably the most pedestrian offense as far as pace, tempo
and what they do offensively is concerned, and they gave
up eight point three yards of play to Miami, oh
Iowa is in that same category. If you want to
make a comparison, Iowa does play offense the way Miami
of Ohio plays offense.
Speaker 3: Iowa does it with better players.
Speaker 2: If I use the fundamentals of this game, ski, not
only is Rutgers defense ass and it should help Iowa,
which is not a great offense, score points, But then
Iowa's defense should travel. It's still the same really really
good Iowa defense, which should be able to contain Rutgers' offense,
which has been their strength less than.
Speaker 3: A field goal.
Speaker 2: I just don't see it. Even if it ends up
as a nineteen sixteen game, Iowa should be the team
on top. So I could see why people like over
because that's the way Rutgers games have trended toward the over.
But i'll use your phrase. Actually I can't use your
phrase because they were a dog. I was gonna say,
how can I trust you if you can't get stops?
But they're not the favorite, they're the underdog, and still
I don't trust them because they can't get stopped.
Speaker 3: So I like Iowa minus the short price.
Speaker 1: And it sounds like, you know, probably a little correlation there, right.
If you like Rutgers, you like the over. If you
like Iowa, you like the under. Okay, so WENO think
a little bit more towards Iowa side, and that'll make
me think that this total is a little a bit
too high. So good stuff on that. I don't really
have too much to add. And I don't have a
banner for this next one because I didn't really plan
on talking about it because I haven't really seen one
of these teams play. It's my fault. There was one
comment I mentioned it now. It said, Thurman Green, where
have you guys been? I haven't seen the show on
YouTube for the last two weeks. That's my fault. I
just had a lot of stuff going on, you know, personally,
and that's kind of affected me watching some of these
college games because there's so so many I can I
couldn't watch them all. But you know, I just want
to ask you really quick. I mean, my opinion of
Texas and sam Houston State. I haven't seen sam Houston State.
I know what I'm getting from Texas. The defense is elite.
The offense is a big work in progress, and that
is why they've gone under in three straight games for
sam Houston State. I mean, you have Texas. If they
opened at forty one, it dropped to thirty nine and
a total of fifty one and a half. So they
don't think Sam Houston is putting up too much here.
I'm just curious, what's your opinion of Sam Houston. Are
they more of an offensive or defensive team? Are these
one of the teams that you follow?
Speaker 2: Yes, Sam Houston, for what it's worth, Sky, they had
their head coach, Casey Keeler leave after last year when
they finished out last year pretty good. He was there
for two three years, got that program on the rise.
But when he left, like happens across the country in
a lot of these cases, when the head coach leaves
a lot of the talent and personnel travel with him
or just hit the portal and leave the school. And
it left Sam Houston in a mess, new systems, new players,
and knew everything. And now you're gonna have to go
play Texas. I tell you really quick, just from my perspective,
I played Texas's team total the week after they played
Ohio State. Right, they lost fourteen to seven to Ohio State.
Then they're going to play San Jose State and their
team total was like forty three and a half, and
I thought, well, they're at home, They're going to ring
up forty five.
Speaker 3: Here the offensive break loose.
Speaker 2: They just played Ohio State and no shame in scoring seven,
but it didn't break loose. They got to thirty eight
and it was a struggle to get to thirty eight,
a lot of mistakes by arch.
Speaker 3: Manning and the offense.
Speaker 2: So then they come back last week and again their
team total. I think they played UTEP, which is a
team this year that's changed styles a little bit, and
I think they rank inside the top fifteen in fastest tempo,
and I thought I didn't play it, but I'm thinking
to myself, well, Texas probably going to get a few
more possessions because if this team is playing fast and
going three and out against the Texas defense, and they's
going to get a lot of chances to score. They
scored twenty seven points, and I'm thinking to myself, there's
something wrong with this team in this offense. Now, whether
or not it all gels and comes together this week
against an absolutely I told you what kind of grassroots
project Sam Houston State is. You could do it if
they're hitting on all cylinders. They could get the forty
nine pretty easy. But their team total once again is
forty five and a half forty six.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 2: You've got bigger fish to fry down the road. That's
another thing you have to think about with Texas because
the look ahead here is to at Floor the next week.
It's an SEC game, so you know, maybe go through
the motions again. I'm not sure, but I would say this.
I think as bad as they've looked offensively and as
much criticism as they're taking nationally, especially the quarterback because
he was the featured guy arch Manning, you would think
that you'd want to get it right. I could care
less who you play next week. You want to get
it right heading into next week. So if Texas has
it in him, this is a team they can break
out against. I'm not so sure they have it in
him right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say, I would say, no, they do
not rob you. No, I haven't seen anything to make
me think otherwise. You know, I'm a Texas fan. I
would love reasons to be happy and cheer and think
that they can be successful, but I haven't seen it.
So man having Florida on deck. I mean, that is
a huge game. They've already lost one, right, so they're
probably thinking a hell of a lot more about that game.
I think that's a solid point. I couldn't lay with
Texas in this game. It would be Sam Houston State.
I think the market is going right to go down
two points. It's plus thirty nine and a half or
nothing for me, and I don't if I don't trust
Texas offense and I trust the defense more makes me
think that this is an undergame as well.
Speaker 2: So interesting ski about that line is that if we
go to logic school, would you like to do Sometimes
forty two to three Texas win doesn't cover, you know,
by a hook. Forty five to six doesn't cover. And
those are huge wins.
Speaker 3: So that's a lot of points the question.
Speaker 1: And you know what, you got to learn these lessons, right.
So earlier in the season I had bet. I bet
Texas on a big point spread after they lost that
first game. I think it was Week two. I forgot
who they played, and they lost. I mean they didn't lose,
but they didn't cover. And what I thought to myself
was after the fact, you know, that was not a
good bet, Like Texas defense is the unit that we
trust the most. The offense is still work in progress, right,
Like if you're laying minus thirty something forty points, is
Texas even gonna score forty points in this game? Like,
I don't trust them to score forty points. So just
off that alone makes me think Sam Houston State and under.
I probably gonna bet one, if not both of those.
I don't really like to bet both side in total,
so I probably will pick one. But that was literally
just a thought while we were here on the show.
I didn't even plan to come and talk about that,
but I think, you know, talking stuff out it helps out,
just like that first quarter over yesterday. So you know,
let's do a little bit of NFL Week three. Don't
have that it's time left and you can if you
can probably tell by the banner, it's gonna be just
not so much focused in on one game, a little
bit around the board. But there are some some games
that stand out to me, and I'll go from from
top to bottom, and if you have one chiman as well,
I'll go first.
Speaker 2: Though.
Speaker 1: The first one that pops out to me is four
fifty three, four fifty four Atlanta and Carolina I mean,
Atlanta open minus two and a half all the way
up to minus five and a half now, and my
thought is just, I know Atlanta won easily last week,
but this is still I mean, I want to call
him a rookie quarterback, Pinnix, he doesn't have that much
experience to what I'm saying. Set another game on the
road after an easy win like that, versus a Panther's
team who I feel like started to find some offensive
rhythm in the second half, and maybe they can you know,
row that over into this home opener for them. I
just really don't believe in land five and a half
with the Falcons. I don't like their coaches, I don't
like the idea of the you know, the inexperienced quarterback,
another game on the road. I don't like any of it.
So I'm trying to find as many reasons as I
can in back the Panthers plus five and a half.
What do you think about that?
Speaker 3: Rob? You know, well, this line jump could be.
Speaker 2: Partially because of what we saw last right, which was
Atlanta simply dominating Minnesota's offense.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: They played that Sunday night game, So it's kind of
a short week for Atlanta here inside the division. Let's
not forget that. To Carolina this is as meaningful to
them as it is to Atlanta. These divisional games mean
the most. Atlanta's dominance last week Ski it didn't come
from the offense. It came because Minnesota. And during the
game a little bit of this happened. But they were
playing without three starting offensive linemen, and you could line
up your front and just go after these guys who
couldn't block to save their lives. And they really had
no chance Minnesota, they had no chance to throw the football.
So chuck that victory up as you will. But I
think that Atlanta, you know, taking advantage of a severe
cluster injury problem is one thing. If they had scored
a bunch of points in that game, I would think, well,
maybe Atlanta's got it right. It seems to me the
only thing Atlanta has right right now is be Jeon Robinson.
Speaker 3: Give them the ball, let them go.
Speaker 2: Carolina knows that they'll probably stack the line look to
take them away. So to your point about taking Carolina,
let's just get into the point spread aspect of it.
Speaker 3: From two and a half to five and a half. Now,
if you're taking Carolina.
Speaker 2: You just got yourself to three, you got yourself to four.
Those are as key numbers as any in NFL football.
If you're taking an underdog plus three plus four, it's
crossed through all of that and giving you that advantage
for Carolina. So maybe the line was good at two
and a half. Atlanta wins by a field goal. You know,
for people who want to come back and middle this thing,
if you're lucky enough to get two and a half early,
it's probably a smart play. But I could see taking
Carolina now at this price at home inside division, short
work week for the other side, only a running game
to speak of on offense for the most part, and
a team that certainly capitalized on a decimated Vikings offensive front.
Speaker 1: And one thing we know, we just saw it last week.
Panthers are going to play to the there's no more
time on the clock. The back door is always open.
So yeah, this is a play that I'm really trying
to get to the window with. There I might, I
very well could get to the window with that. Is
there one that stands out to you that youd like
to talk about or should I keep going?
Speaker 3: Good?
Speaker 2: Well, I'll just say that this real quick Ski a
couple of things that are very noticeable and that are
starting to be brought up. New England's secondary stinks. It's
two weeks in a row. That's a bad secondary unit.
Raiders threw all over them last week. They gave up
a bunch of points in that Dolphins game. And the
other side of that game is Pittsburgh, whose defense has
been just as bad. For some reason, Pittsburgh's picking guys
up off the street now to fill in on defense
because they're not very good. Started forty and a half,
the total did up to forty four and a half.
There might still be a little wiggle room there to
play an over and then, along those same exact lines,
just repeat everything I just said for Dallas. At Chicago,
I was on a Sunday show Live Live Game in
Game Live, and that game opened forty six the total,
and immediately one of the guys I was on set
with at wager talk here at forty six to the over,
it's now fifty and a half. Dallas. They are what
they are. They can score on anybody, but they can't
stop anything. And the Bears get fifty two hung on
them by Detroit last week. They can't stop anything. Both
offenses in good weather should go up and down. Again,
it's hanging under the key number of fifty one, so
you still have some wiggle room there. Last thing, I'll
say real quick, this is as much gut feeling as
it is fundamental matchup, etc.
Speaker 3: Etc.
Speaker 2: Although the San Francisco injuries do play into this, I
think Arizona's going to go into San Francisco and win.
I'm just not impressed with what San Francisco has. You know,
they beat Seattle in that opening week. Seattle basically beat themselves,
but at San Francisco's skill position players, they're so limited
now without George Kittle, Juwan jennings Is it looks like
he hasn't practiced this week. It looks like he's going
to be out again. You're basically hanging your hat on
a banged up.
Speaker 3: Rock Purty if he plays.
Speaker 2: And Christian McCaffrey and I just think Arizona's better than that.
You know, again, it's a divisional game. Arizona's got a
ton of talent. This game has moved up from forty
two and a half to forty five and a half
based on the brock Purty News and brock Purty is
all fine and well, but when you just don't have
weaponry to go around him, I don't know. I think
Arizona can win that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I agree with with your thought process
on those three games that you mentioned. San fran is
pretty banged up already. One thing I'll say is I
was kind of wrecking my brain on that Dallas in
Chicago side though. And I was liking Dallas just because
I thought, you know, I trust the guys offensively more.
But your boils downs would always say, I don't like
you know, and you don't have to lay much. It's
a small number, but get stops. It makes me feel
very uncomfortable. So maybe the over, like you said, it's
just a better way to go.
Speaker 3: That's where three st tequila and pineapples. If you can't get.
Speaker 1: Started, I'm telling you, are you Something else that was
standing out to me the Green Bay in Cleveland game.
It opened minus seven for Green Bay. It did get
up to like eight and a half or nine at
some shops, right and we've seen it come back down.
I mean I'm seeing seven and a half. There's some
close to plus money minus one oh five. Seeing the
buy back there is interesting. Green Bay has looked really good, dominant,
whatever you want to call them through these first couple
of weeks. Cleveland is luck pathetic, and still the money's
coming back down on Cleveland. I just I can't really
make sense of it. I mean green I'm just sitting
here thinking, why do I not run to the window
and take Green Bay? Or why do I not go
to the window and just tease Green Bay? Like why are
they not at least going to win the game? And
how does Cleveland even score? I mean, they couldn't get
what the team total. I think it's seventeen and a half.
They haven't been able to clear that yet. Green Bay's
defense looks really good, especially with Parsons over there. How
can Cleveland reach eighteen? How can Cleveland cover this game?
Why are people buying Cleveland?
Speaker 2: I think the case that will be made for Cleveland
and it, you know, when you watch these two teams play,
the case becomes a little flimsy. But I think it's
built on situation. I think that, you know, because the
NFL is such a tricky sport, the handicap, but you
have Green Bay off of two extremely high profile wins.
It's non conference now it's the perfect spot for a letdown.
It's non conferencing on the road. Green Bay hasn't been
outside of Green Bay yet, it's perfect spot for a letdown. Cleveland,
for what and it's worth, was hanging around in that
game against Baltimore maybe until mid third. I think late
third had started to really bust open. Baltimore picked off
a pass, Baltimore started scoring touchdowns, and then it.
Speaker 3: Was forty one to whatever.
Speaker 2: I think that final score is probably a shade misleading.
And then, last but not least, anybody betting Cleveland is
banking way more on their defense to be able to
keep this thing close. Maybe forced Jordan lovingto a turnover
or two. I think that's the way nobody's looking at
this saying Cleveland on paper is good enough to play
with Green Bay, because what we've seen we.
Speaker 3: Know they're not.
Speaker 2: But those specific situations ski non conference games are the
third most important to these teams. And if you're gonna
ask a team go win two of the biggest games
of your season, do it both at home, go on
the road. Be better than a touchdown favorite against a
team that stinks. And you can see the letdown formula
that people might be banking on the reason for the
and then the reason for the.
Speaker 3: Comeback of the line could.
Speaker 2: Very well be that the whatever groups or whatever who
bet this thing early probably wanted to get this number
from seven up to nine because they liked Cleveland at
a certain price. So they move the line a little
bit to get the bandwagon of the public to follow
them till it gets to a point where they can
buy back. Sometimes these they're called false line moves. Sometimes
they happen, but certainly somebody with money wanted that eight
eight and a half with the Cleveland side rather than
just plus seven.
Speaker 1: All right, almost run out of time here. Stat's asking
to we cover Giants and Chiefs. I mean, I don't.
I don't feel very strongly about that. But what I
do think is the Chiefs shouldn't really be laying these
kind of points right now. They do need to win, desperately.
Needs to win doesn't mean no cover. And my personal
opinion is Patrick Mahomes is that the master of winning
and not covering. Giants have a really good defensive line.
Patrick Mahomes doesn't have a lot of weapons to throw
to I would be taking the Giants plus six and
a half if I'm been that spread any thoughts there
real quick.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say to you before you said that,
would you tease Kansas City and Green Bay and just
ask both.
Speaker 3: Of them to win the games?
Speaker 2: Very possible, But where the Giants are concerned, I'd be
just a shade cautious so offensively because they did all
their damage last week against Dallas. Dallas, like we mentioned,
is just the shoddiest defense out there. So maybe Russell
Wilson comes back to Earth. I was a little surprised
it went so high towards the overski forty one and
a half all the way to forty five, because putting
together what you said and what I'm thinking would lead
me more to believe that this is kind of a
twenty four, seventeen, twenty three, twenty type game under forty five.
So I'll look at it a little more. It's not
till Sunday night, but that's kind of the way I
see it right now.
Speaker 1: Fair there is there was another one that I wanted
to mention. Really, there's there's a couple I want to mention,
but here, let't do like this. I don't think Jacksonville's
defense is any good. I think, man, it's killing me
what I'm seeing from Houston right now. But I think CJ.
Stroud is still better than what he's shown, you know lately,
getting points with them, Man, I think they can win
the game. I'm really trying to find a lot of
reasons to back Houston here, and it just starts with,
like how I thought about the Atlanta game. I don't
really like the thought of laying with Jacksonville laying anything,
So I'm looking at that, and other than that, I
think that you're paying a little bit of a premium
for Seattle here versus New Orleans. Seven and a half
point favorite just seems like too much. If New Orleans
front can get a little bit of pressure. We know
Sam Darnold is not good when he's pressured. And they
do have a big game coming up on Thursday versus
the Cardinals. So the Saints that looked better so far
this season than I thought. I think that they can
keep it respectable. So trying to bet Houston also looking
at the Saints. Any thoughts on either one of those games, I.
Speaker 3: Can get there with you.
Speaker 2: On Houston, let's face it, they played two teams that
are going to the playoffs to start the season. They
played the Rams super good defense. They played the Tampa
Bay defensive front, which is really good. Their secondary is
the weakness. But if you don't have time like CJ.
Sdrug didn't, you know you're gonna have trouble. So those
two teams and they almost beat Tampa. This is a
huge step down in klass Ski And let's just say
this that Joe Burrow went out of the game last week,
Jake Browning came in and Jacksonville had their hands full,
which and in the end didn't even beat him. Trevor
Lawrence still looks like Trevor Lawrence to me. And they
don't pressure. They just don't pressure the way the Rams
and Bucks do. So I can totally see Houston. And again,
let's just make this because this is usually one of
the biggest points in my handicap. It's a divisional game.
Houston can look at their record and say we're oh
in two, but we're not. We're oh and oh inside
the division. Let's win the division first, and it starts
right here with Jacksonville. So I like Houston as well.
I think that their defense can make life miserable for
Trevor Lawrence and the other game. I don't have a
real stout opinion on I do think Seattle's offense is
coming around.
Speaker 3: I saw Zach Sharbone. He's hurt a little bit here.
We'll see what goes on there.
Speaker 2: Spencer Rattler, I've always liked as a QB and he
does have some weaponry. But I haven't looked at that
game real hard, so I'll reserve any comment on that one.
Speaker 1: Fair all right, I think we did a pretty good job.
We I mean, damn near test all the games, not
all of them, but I think we did a pretty
good job. So it is about that time Rovino before
we go to best Bets. I'm gonna put this up
there because it is still going Rovino the Weekend or
Weekend Warrior, I don't check. It is still going. So
you can get every football play from whoever you choose,
and it's only forty nine dollars, and it does include
Monday night football as well, So I mean, I think
that's a hell of a deal. I will be making
my decisions today, tonight, maybe even some tomorrow, and just
adding as I go along. So if you want to
roll with me, I think that's a good way to
do it. If you want to roll with rovino. You know,
same can be said there. So on that note, time
to move it over the best bets and vino. If
I ask you if you have a best bet, you
know we would love to hear it. But if you
do not, it's all good. And if you have anything
else to promo, you know, feel free.
Speaker 2: I'll just add to the weekend Warrior things Ski, if
you're looking to get all three day Saturday, Sunday, Monday,
every prayer players for just forty nine bucks, I've already
put up a five percent college football play on a
five and oh NFL run four and oh Sunday one
and O last night, So five and oh in college
football raked in about ten or eleven units last week,
and so seeing it pretty well right now where football
is concerned. Once again, like Ski mentioned weekend Warrior package,
forty nine bucks and you will get the five percent
blue chip that's already up there. I'll go back to
where we started this whole thing. I just don't know
how big shouldn't say that, because certainly New York can win,
But in my opinion, Phoenix is the better side right now.
Phoenix is easily to meet three points better than New
York their current status. So for me, best bet will
be Phoenix minus two and a half.
Speaker 1: Good stuff from Rovino. U Capper in the chat says
he's going to that Seahawks game this weekend. He says, ski,
did they see the picture they used for me and you?
I need to take new pictures with a hat? I
didn't even see it. So you got lucky. You lucked
out here, you capper all I put up on this
show and I guess I'll use that as a little
extra promo here. It was this one. Yeah, just so
you got lucky. It's no picture of you on here
without the hat. But it's a chance to rock with
Yukapur and I at a discount, and like I said yesterday,
with the money you're saving, you can go, you know,
pick up rob as well. But I do have a
five percent play going tonight in the w NBA, so
it's a perfect time to get involved there rather than
just you know, by the single play. If you want
to buy a single play and check it out, you know,
that's your choice, but you can get the whole rest
of the playoffs. We cashed last year number one, number two.
We're trying to do that again here. This year, best
best for this show, man, I'm not gonna give a
best bet, but what I am going to do, I'm
gonna say I like from what we've talked about, I
really like the under in that Iowa game. That makes
a lot of sense. I'm going to think about it
a little bit more, talk about a little bit more
on this next show I'm going to do. And as
far as if I'm betting these games that we talked
about in the NFL, the ones I'm closest to right
now as of this moment, Caroline plus five and a
half and Caroline plus five and a half and the Saints.
So I'll leave you with those three. Haven't put anything
in yet. If you want to know when I put
them in, we can worry. Is a great way to
do it. Roveno. Always tell you, I appreciate you taking
it time to break these games down with me. Helps
my process. I'm sure you know. Helping out everybody else
out there as well, people in the chat. You guys
bring a lot to the show. The show is not
the same without you. A lot of great people, great cappers,
and you know, I appreciate everybody helping each other, you know,
trying to help each other win. That's all we're trying
to do here. So appreciate you guys. I do see
everything up there, Rono, Kick twitch X. We appreciate all
you guys, Apple, Spotify, And this is the last show
for the week, so we'll be back on Monday. Best
of luck with all your action over the weekend, and yeah,
we'll catch you next week.