1 00:00:01,439 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. 2 00:00:04,719 --> 00:00:07,320 If you are new, we always start this show by 3 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:12,279 being transparent, and yesterday it was a positive day for myself. 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:15,240 Talked out the first quarter over nine and a half 5 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:18,359 for that football game. It was an easy winner and 6 00:00:20,519 --> 00:00:23,559 WNBA had the under. I said that it will still 7 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:25,440 be good at one fifty nine. I had one sixty 8 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:27,879 one and a half cash no matter what number you got, 9 00:00:27,879 --> 00:00:29,960 so nice to one all day for myself. Try to 10 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,320 keep that going here today be no good to be 11 00:00:32,399 --> 00:00:34,479 back with you. It is Friday, last day of the week. 12 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:36,679 I was yesterday for you. How you doing today? 13 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:41,679 Speaker 2: I am good today. Skip Yesterday was I guess you 14 00:00:41,719 --> 00:00:44,960 could say good slash not great. Record wise, let's put 15 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:45,399 it that way. 16 00:00:45,399 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 3: Two and two. 17 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:48,759 Speaker 2: But the top play was the Atlanta team total over. 18 00:00:49,039 --> 00:00:52,039 They did get over eighty points. We talked about that yesterday. 19 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:54,759 Didn't win the game, but they got over eighty points 20 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,320 also when we talked out and I texted this to 21 00:00:57,359 --> 00:01:00,840 you after we got the victory. When we talked out 22 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,240 that first quarter over nine and a half, I went 23 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,799 ahead and released it. The clients played it. Myself thought 24 00:01:05,799 --> 00:01:07,200 that was going to be a good play, and it 25 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,879 wound up being that those scripted drive ski those first 26 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,719 two boom boom right down the field. I did also though, 27 00:01:14,879 --> 00:01:17,319 and even on this show here, I left it as 28 00:01:17,359 --> 00:01:20,760 my best bet. Atlanta first quarter and the Fever had 29 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,319 the lead at the end of one twenty nine to 30 00:01:22,359 --> 00:01:23,000 twenty seven. 31 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:24,079 Speaker 3: So that was bad. 32 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 2: And I'm thinking of something else I had that didn't 33 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:30,040 because I went two and two, but I made a 34 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,120 slight bit of money, so that that's basically how it went. 35 00:01:33,159 --> 00:01:34,879 Speaker 3: Too and two made a very little profit. 36 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I honestly can't believe that the Fever won, 37 00:01:39,519 --> 00:01:43,879 like the Dreams should. Dreams should be ashamed of themselves 38 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:47,319 for real, Like I don't know, they just kind of 39 00:01:47,359 --> 00:01:52,359 crumbled to end the season, like they around the All 40 00:01:52,359 --> 00:01:55,400 Star break, they started playing their best basketball of the season, 41 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:57,599 and it was going all the way, all the way 42 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:02,599 until what I want to say. They were still playing 43 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,680 good until just game two or no game one, game one, 44 00:02:06,719 --> 00:02:09,479 they were like bad offensively. They still play good defense, 45 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:14,639 but it's like what happened to the dream But got 46 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,199 to shout out those those Fever players. No matter how 47 00:02:17,199 --> 00:02:19,879 many players are down, you know, everybody else stepped up 48 00:02:19,879 --> 00:02:24,000 and now we'll see them face the ass so we'll 49 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,639 be interesting. Yeah, they're very happy. A J almost couldn't 50 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:33,439 believe it when they told her that she's facing the fever. Yeah, 51 00:02:33,479 --> 00:02:35,240 so I didn't even look at the odds for that, 52 00:02:35,319 --> 00:02:37,240 but I know it would be pretty crazy. We have 53 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,159 another game to talk about here today in the w 54 00:02:39,439 --> 00:02:41,240 we have a college football game to talk about that 55 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:45,080 goes off today. I know we started late, we don't 56 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:46,840 have the most time. We'll talk a little bit of 57 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,560 NFL too, Maybe not the biggest college football week on 58 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,120 this show, but we'll talk a little bit of everything here. 59 00:02:53,439 --> 00:02:55,639 And Ukapur in the chat as well, says can't believe 60 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:59,719 the dream lost for sure. All right, let's get to it, 61 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:01,879 you know, well, I mean, you know how we do 62 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,680 around here. We'll do ladies first, So let me get 63 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:10,639 back to it. Ladies first means Liberty and Mercury six 64 00:03:10,719 --> 00:03:13,439 oh seven six o eight opened up Mercury minus one. 65 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,800 I'm seeing pretty much two and a half everywhere I 66 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,919 do see it. Three see it too, so line shot, 67 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,560 depending what you like. As far as the total it 68 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,520 did up in one fifty six and a half, I 69 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,400 still see one of those juice to the under, but 70 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,800 the consensus line is one fifty five and a half. 71 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:37,000 As far as an injury report, I mean, I'm pretty 72 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,479 sure we're getting everybody here today. Yeah, nobody on the 73 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:44,120 injury report here. You know, Phoenix could have very easily 74 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:48,400 swept the Liberty. I mean that we talked about that. 75 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,639 You know that last shot from Melissa Thomas in game one. 76 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:56,560 Routinely makes those shots, and they just fell short and overtime. 77 00:03:56,639 --> 00:04:00,479 But they came out and they put I mean they 78 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:02,879 put bell to ask. That's the only way to say it. 79 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,479 As far as in New York, they did it that 80 00:04:06,599 --> 00:04:10,599 quite that crowd was quiet real quick or after that 81 00:04:10,639 --> 00:04:14,479 first quarter, they got real quiet in there. And man, 82 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:18,839 with the limited Stewie, it's just we saw what they 83 00:04:18,879 --> 00:04:21,240 looked like when they when they don't have Stewie. We 84 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:22,920 saw what they look like. And if you have a 85 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,240 very limited Stewie, I mean you're either putting her out 86 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,279 there and playing almost four on five, or you know, 87 00:04:28,319 --> 00:04:30,240 you're just not getting the best version of the Liberty. 88 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:37,160 For the Mercury, they play some really good defense. They 89 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:40,040 were hounding the Liberty and they got out and ran. 90 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,360 They ran, ran, ran, ran, Ran. I think they had 91 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,759 twenty fast breakpoints Alyssa Thomas, you know, that's that's where 92 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,399 she thrives, getting out in transition. So I like what 93 00:04:50,399 --> 00:04:52,959 I've seen from the Mercury. They're at home again. It 94 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,519 makes me think that they should be, you know, their 95 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,240 favorite for a reason. They should get the w here. 96 00:04:59,399 --> 00:05:02,399 I mean, just with that, do you think I mean 97 00:05:02,399 --> 00:05:04,720 it almost looked like the Liberty gave up already in 98 00:05:04,759 --> 00:05:07,319 that last game. How are you feeling about the side 99 00:05:07,319 --> 00:05:07,680 in this one? 100 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 2: You know, yeah, I feel the same way Phoenix. For 101 00:05:11,639 --> 00:05:13,560 what it's worth, the power readings that I keep made 102 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:15,639 Phoenix a three point favorite. They're two and a half. 103 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,079 So the numbers in line. It's not like you're paying 104 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,480 any kind of tax or anything. But I'll just add 105 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,800 a couple of external factors to what you said. 106 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:24,759 Speaker 3: Ski. 107 00:05:25,199 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 2: If you're just reading body language of these two teams 108 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:32,439 right now, you're playing Phoenix, you're not playing New York. 109 00:05:32,639 --> 00:05:34,199 I feel like if you played in New York, you're 110 00:05:34,199 --> 00:05:37,000 almost asking New York, based on reputation, to pull a 111 00:05:37,079 --> 00:05:41,480 rabbit out their backside to win this thing. Because again, 112 00:05:42,399 --> 00:05:46,839 when Satu is motivated and she came off of that 113 00:05:46,879 --> 00:05:51,120 two of seventeen with a point to prove, and you 114 00:05:51,199 --> 00:05:53,759 put her in a list of Thomas together and it's 115 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,000 pretty tough. As you mentioned, that fast break scoring was 116 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,720 twenty to two in favor of Phoenix. Phoenix scored twenty 117 00:05:59,759 --> 00:06:03,040 five off liberty turnovers. And there's times where Sabrine de 118 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:06,439 Ganescu just looks like she can't handle their pressure. She's 119 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:08,839 forcing up shot her shot when it was released the 120 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,720 other night. When you watch her shooting threes, you never 121 00:06:11,759 --> 00:06:14,120 felt like those things were going in. She's three or 122 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,120 thirteen from the floor again bat three point shooting. Now, 123 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:23,439 head coach Sandy Brondela, she benched her, you know, starting 124 00:06:23,519 --> 00:06:25,720 core for the fourth quarter and let the they're deep 125 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:27,920 enough to let a reserve five go out there to 126 00:06:27,959 --> 00:06:30,279 try and save some energy. But I don't know that 127 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,240 you had. I don't think they have near as much 128 00:06:33,399 --> 00:06:36,879 energy as what Phoenix is showing me right now. Again, 129 00:06:37,399 --> 00:06:39,959 I just made this point on a previous show, and 130 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:44,639 we'll just reiterated here. Yeah, maybe she didn't do it 131 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,600 the right way when Dowana Bonner forced her way out 132 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,040 of Indiana, but she's been a godsend for that Phoenix 133 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,120 bench because she comes off the bench and basically every 134 00:06:54,199 --> 00:06:58,399 night she's as consistent as they come offensively, providing bench 135 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,959 points of course, one of the greatest scores in WNBA history. 136 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:05,439 It's just another factor to help that youth that we 137 00:07:05,519 --> 00:07:09,480 talk about with Phoenix ski if they shoot anywhere, let's 138 00:07:09,519 --> 00:07:12,519 just say, if they shoot thirty six, thirty seven, thirty 139 00:07:12,519 --> 00:07:15,160 eight percent from three, they're gonna win this game, because 140 00:07:15,199 --> 00:07:17,319 the only time Phoenix goes really bad is when they 141 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,480 just can't buy a three. But I don't see that 142 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,279 happening here. I think they're the tougher team, they're the 143 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:27,000 quicker team. They're gonna be in an energized building tonight. 144 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:28,399 So I like Phoenix mighty two. 145 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:28,639 Speaker 3: And a half. 146 00:07:29,839 --> 00:07:32,519 Speaker 1: Yeah, man, they're I mean, maybe some of with Sabrina's 147 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,959 you know, struggles come from just being tired. I mean, 148 00:07:36,439 --> 00:07:39,199 they're picking on their all game on defense. I think 149 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,800 the first half they were like and again I had 150 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,120 a few while I was watching the game, so but 151 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,040 I'm pretty sure they were picking on her, Like first 152 00:07:49,079 --> 00:07:52,560 it was like going straight at her, like whoever she 153 00:07:52,639 --> 00:07:54,519 was guarding, I feel like, and then in the second 154 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:56,920 half it was like they were putting whoever she was 155 00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:01,160 guarding as a screener and just going after her that way, 156 00:08:01,199 --> 00:08:03,439 getting downhill and going after her that way. So I 157 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,399 know she was tired being in every single action having 158 00:08:06,439 --> 00:08:09,120 to try to carry the load offensively. And it's gonna 159 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:12,279 be a lot of that again, you know here in 160 00:08:12,319 --> 00:08:14,399 this game. I'm sure they'll have some kind of plan. 161 00:08:14,519 --> 00:08:18,480 But I mean talk a little bit about the total here, 162 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,439 rob one fifty five and a half, pretty sure the 163 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:26,920 lowest one that we've seen in this series. But that 164 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:29,480 fast break I mean the fast breakpoints in the last one, 165 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,159 twenty for the Mercury. I think they had around twenty 166 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,320 in the first game too, But that has to be 167 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,039 some kind of point of emphasis for the Liberty. I mean, 168 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,000 twenty to two fast breakpoints. You're not gonna be winning 169 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:44,159 those games, you know, so in my mind, when you 170 00:08:44,159 --> 00:08:46,519 get blown out like that, And that's if I was 171 00:08:46,519 --> 00:08:48,480 the coach, that's the first emphasis I would have. We 172 00:08:48,519 --> 00:08:51,480 got to get back on defense and stop them in transition. 173 00:08:52,159 --> 00:08:56,080 And outside of that, I just feel like these are 174 00:08:56,200 --> 00:09:01,600 two teams really people playing good defense. You know, Situationally, 175 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:03,919 it sets up, you know, is win or go home. 176 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,639 We know what that means. So I think it's low 177 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:11,039 for a reason. I think under it's the preferred side 178 00:09:11,039 --> 00:09:13,759 as far as total total goes in the opinion there. 179 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 2: And maybe even Liberty team total underski unless you think 180 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:20,440 there's gonna be some kind of bounce back. Let me 181 00:09:20,519 --> 00:09:24,879 just read you the scores that the Liberty have put 182 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:27,879 up in five of the last six quarters in this 183 00:09:28,039 --> 00:09:31,519 series before overtime. In the third quarter they scored eleven 184 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,879 of Game one, they scored ten in the fourth, So 185 00:09:34,879 --> 00:09:38,399 that's eleven and ten in the second quarter of Game two, 186 00:09:38,639 --> 00:09:42,840 twelve ten in the third thirteen thirteen is the highest 187 00:09:43,039 --> 00:09:45,480 point total they've recorded in that quarter in five of 188 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:46,080 the last six. 189 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 3: They can't get anything on tracked. Here. 190 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:52,919 Speaker 2: The surrounding cast that actually is pretty good shooters. Phoebush 191 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:57,519 is a good shooter. Natasha Clouds should score. Meiserman should score, 192 00:09:57,799 --> 00:09:59,879 but none of them are. Hey, look, I don't know. 193 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,919 Like I said earlier, the other team looks like the 194 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,519 fiercer group, the more motivated group New York. I don't 195 00:10:07,519 --> 00:10:10,440 want to say they're the champions. Shouldn't you scared? But 196 00:10:10,519 --> 00:10:13,159 they just had that like deer in the headlights. Look 197 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,080 the supporting cast, like we don't really want the ball. 198 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:21,080 Mesaman looked lousy in that game. Leonie Phoebus, her shot 199 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,200 didn't look right. So I don't know, maybe a New 200 00:10:24,279 --> 00:10:28,320 York team total under unless you really think that, you 201 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,080 know they're going to bounce back and get it right. 202 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 3: I know. 203 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:34,279 Speaker 2: I use that particular argument in favor of my play 204 00:10:34,799 --> 00:10:37,240 with the Atlanta Dream last night. I thought their core 205 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:39,480 three had played so bad they'd have to play better, 206 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:41,879 and maybe you could use that argument here for the 207 00:10:41,919 --> 00:10:44,519 New York Liberty. But seventy it's going to be a 208 00:10:44,639 --> 00:10:47,840 tall hill for them to climb to get the seventy 209 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,720 eight points tonight. I see the consensus line here as 210 00:10:50,759 --> 00:10:53,919 seventy seven. So seventy eight for the Liberty, I'm not 211 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:54,360 so sure. 212 00:10:57,039 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if you put together the way we're feeling, 213 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,440 you know, at least you know Mercury and you know under, 214 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:04,639 that's what you get Liberty team total. A couple of 215 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,840 things from the chat I agree with Paul Savaly is 216 00:11:07,879 --> 00:11:12,000 a key. She's also one of my favorite players. Jorges 217 00:11:12,039 --> 00:11:14,600 mentioning that the first half totals at seventy nine and 218 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,639 a half with the full game is one fifty five 219 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:18,840 and a half shaded for a little bit more points 220 00:11:18,879 --> 00:11:20,840 in the first half, and I mean it makes sense. 221 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,120 I mean, think of what we've seen in these these 222 00:11:24,159 --> 00:11:28,000 other you know, elimination win or go home games. It 223 00:11:28,039 --> 00:11:32,120 gets really really tight in that second half. So that's 224 00:11:32,159 --> 00:11:34,919 something to think about. And Brian, that should probably answer 225 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:36,919 your question about this first quarter. Under doesn't mean it 226 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:40,879 can't hit, but I wouldn't want to specifically, just you know, 227 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:45,399 look at the first quarter. I think Mark says unders 228 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:49,000 for everything. Yeah, still be playing on the spring to 229 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:52,000 mcl all things that you have to take into consideration. 230 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:53,799 So I think we did a pretty good job breaking 231 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,080 down this game, Rob, you know, I think we can, 232 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,399 you know, take it off the hardwood. We'll go and 233 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:03,240 look at let's get some football here, and we do 234 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:06,799 have one game today, so let's talk about that first. 235 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:11,159 That means three oh seven, three oh eight Iowa and 236 00:12:11,279 --> 00:12:16,039 Ruggers opened up minus two for Iowa. I'm gonna call 237 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,399 that still the consensus. I mean it's between one and 238 00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:20,639 a half and I see two and a halfs out there, 239 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:25,120 so we'll say too, still total open forty five and 240 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,759 a half and it's just highest forty six and a half. 241 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:33,159 A few of them out there actually, and Vino I am. 242 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,600 I mean, I'm not the most knowledgeable about every single 243 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:41,320 college football team, but what I do know about Iowa 244 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:43,519 is they're not a team that's known to be playing 245 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,519 high scoring games. And from what I've seen from Ruggers 246 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,840 so far this year, their defense is ass I mean, 247 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,559 if if Iowa can't score on this defense, and it's 248 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,600 gonna be, it's gonna be tough for them this season. 249 00:12:55,960 --> 00:13:01,039 So I can understand just based on Ruggers defense, why 250 00:13:01,159 --> 00:13:03,759 is totals going up? How are you doing this game? 251 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 3: Yeah? 252 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 2: If you take the other matchup with that, Ski, Rutgers 253 00:13:09,279 --> 00:13:11,879 is dependent upon their offense this year. They're just a 254 00:13:11,919 --> 00:13:15,279 different team. I mean, public perception of Rutgers for the 255 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:19,240 last twenty years and rightfully so all defense can't score, 256 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,159 but that's it's totally flipped this year, and it started 257 00:13:22,159 --> 00:13:24,679 to flip late last year. Rutgers started scoring points with 258 00:13:24,759 --> 00:13:31,240 the new quarterback counting Caucus. They just don't stop up. 259 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:36,320 In simplest terms, they played Miami of Ohio, which is 260 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:40,279 probably the most pedestrian offense as far as pace, tempo 261 00:13:41,039 --> 00:13:44,039 and what they do offensively is concerned, and they gave 262 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:47,000 up eight point three yards of play to Miami, oh 263 00:13:48,279 --> 00:13:50,399 Iowa is in that same category. If you want to 264 00:13:50,399 --> 00:13:54,559 make a comparison, Iowa does play offense the way Miami 265 00:13:54,639 --> 00:13:55,720 of Ohio plays offense. 266 00:13:55,799 --> 00:13:57,879 Speaker 3: Iowa does it with better players. 267 00:13:58,759 --> 00:14:02,799 Speaker 2: If I use the fundamentals of this game, ski, not 268 00:14:02,879 --> 00:14:06,120 only is Rutgers defense ass and it should help Iowa, 269 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,360 which is not a great offense, score points, But then 270 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,440 Iowa's defense should travel. It's still the same really really 271 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,480 good Iowa defense, which should be able to contain Rutgers' offense, 272 00:14:14,519 --> 00:14:16,879 which has been their strength less than. 273 00:14:16,759 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 3: A field goal. 274 00:14:18,039 --> 00:14:19,679 Speaker 2: I just don't see it. Even if it ends up 275 00:14:19,679 --> 00:14:22,399 as a nineteen sixteen game, Iowa should be the team 276 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:26,639 on top. So I could see why people like over 277 00:14:26,679 --> 00:14:30,039 because that's the way Rutgers games have trended toward the over. 278 00:14:30,919 --> 00:14:35,559 But i'll use your phrase. Actually I can't use your 279 00:14:35,559 --> 00:14:37,159 phrase because they were a dog. I was gonna say, 280 00:14:37,159 --> 00:14:38,879 how can I trust you if you can't get stops? 281 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,919 But they're not the favorite, they're the underdog, and still 282 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:43,600 I don't trust them because they can't get stopped. 283 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,279 Speaker 3: So I like Iowa minus the short price. 284 00:14:46,159 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 1: And it sounds like, you know, probably a little correlation there, right. 285 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:50,919 If you like Rutgers, you like the over. If you 286 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:55,559 like Iowa, you like the under. Okay, so WENO think 287 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,840 a little bit more towards Iowa side, and that'll make 288 00:14:58,919 --> 00:15:00,320 me think that this total is a little a bit 289 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,120 too high. So good stuff on that. I don't really 290 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,120 have too much to add. And I don't have a 291 00:15:05,159 --> 00:15:06,960 banner for this next one because I didn't really plan 292 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:11,440 on talking about it because I haven't really seen one 293 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:15,720 of these teams play. It's my fault. There was one 294 00:15:15,759 --> 00:15:20,000 comment I mentioned it now. It said, Thurman Green, where 295 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:21,399 have you guys been? I haven't seen the show on 296 00:15:21,399 --> 00:15:23,399 YouTube for the last two weeks. That's my fault. I 297 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,279 just had a lot of stuff going on, you know, personally, 298 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:30,480 and that's kind of affected me watching some of these 299 00:15:30,519 --> 00:15:33,159 college games because there's so so many I can I 300 00:15:33,159 --> 00:15:35,559 couldn't watch them all. But you know, I just want 301 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,720 to ask you really quick. I mean, my opinion of 302 00:15:40,559 --> 00:15:43,679 Texas and sam Houston State. I haven't seen sam Houston State. 303 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:48,519 I know what I'm getting from Texas. The defense is elite. 304 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,320 The offense is a big work in progress, and that 305 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,759 is why they've gone under in three straight games for 306 00:15:54,799 --> 00:15:58,919 sam Houston State. I mean, you have Texas. If they 307 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,879 opened at forty one, it dropped to thirty nine and 308 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,200 a total of fifty one and a half. So they 309 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,679 don't think Sam Houston is putting up too much here. 310 00:16:08,399 --> 00:16:11,639 I'm just curious, what's your opinion of Sam Houston. Are 311 00:16:11,639 --> 00:16:14,080 they more of an offensive or defensive team? Are these 312 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:15,240 one of the teams that you follow? 313 00:16:16,679 --> 00:16:18,799 Speaker 2: Yes, Sam Houston, for what it's worth, Sky, they had 314 00:16:18,799 --> 00:16:21,559 their head coach, Casey Keeler leave after last year when 315 00:16:21,559 --> 00:16:24,600 they finished out last year pretty good. He was there 316 00:16:24,639 --> 00:16:26,840 for two three years, got that program on the rise. 317 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:30,679 But when he left, like happens across the country in 318 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,960 a lot of these cases, when the head coach leaves 319 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:35,879 a lot of the talent and personnel travel with him 320 00:16:36,159 --> 00:16:38,279 or just hit the portal and leave the school. And 321 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:43,000 it left Sam Houston in a mess, new systems, new players, 322 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,080 and knew everything. And now you're gonna have to go 323 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:51,240 play Texas. I tell you really quick, just from my perspective, 324 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:55,759 I played Texas's team total the week after they played 325 00:16:55,799 --> 00:16:58,200 Ohio State. Right, they lost fourteen to seven to Ohio State. 326 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,720 Then they're going to play San Jose State and their 327 00:17:00,759 --> 00:17:02,600 team total was like forty three and a half, and 328 00:17:02,639 --> 00:17:04,039 I thought, well, they're at home, They're going to ring 329 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:04,720 up forty five. 330 00:17:04,759 --> 00:17:06,039 Speaker 3: Here the offensive break loose. 331 00:17:06,079 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 2: They just played Ohio State and no shame in scoring seven, 332 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,279 but it didn't break loose. They got to thirty eight 333 00:17:11,319 --> 00:17:12,960 and it was a struggle to get to thirty eight, 334 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:14,240 a lot of mistakes by arch. 335 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:15,640 Speaker 3: Manning and the offense. 336 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 2: So then they come back last week and again their 337 00:17:19,799 --> 00:17:23,480 team total. I think they played UTEP, which is a 338 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,680 team this year that's changed styles a little bit, and 339 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:31,839 I think they rank inside the top fifteen in fastest tempo, 340 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:33,960 and I thought I didn't play it, but I'm thinking 341 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:35,839 to myself, well, Texas probably going to get a few 342 00:17:35,839 --> 00:17:38,680 more possessions because if this team is playing fast and 343 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,440 going three and out against the Texas defense, and they's 344 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,160 going to get a lot of chances to score. They 345 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,240 scored twenty seven points, and I'm thinking to myself, there's 346 00:17:46,279 --> 00:17:49,960 something wrong with this team in this offense. Now, whether 347 00:17:50,039 --> 00:17:52,400 or not it all gels and comes together this week 348 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,759 against an absolutely I told you what kind of grassroots 349 00:17:54,799 --> 00:17:57,839 project Sam Houston State is. You could do it if 350 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,279 they're hitting on all cylinders. They could get the forty 351 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,480 nine pretty easy. But their team total once again is 352 00:18:02,519 --> 00:18:04,000 forty five and a half forty six. 353 00:18:05,559 --> 00:18:06,079 Speaker 3: I don't know. 354 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,839 Speaker 2: You've got bigger fish to fry down the road. That's 355 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:11,400 another thing you have to think about with Texas because 356 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,039 the look ahead here is to at Floor the next week. 357 00:18:14,079 --> 00:18:17,400 It's an SEC game, so you know, maybe go through 358 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,480 the motions again. I'm not sure, but I would say this. 359 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,119 I think as bad as they've looked offensively and as 360 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:28,440 much criticism as they're taking nationally, especially the quarterback because 361 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:32,440 he was the featured guy arch Manning, you would think 362 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:34,200 that you'd want to get it right. I could care 363 00:18:34,279 --> 00:18:36,680 less who you play next week. You want to get 364 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,839 it right heading into next week. So if Texas has 365 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,240 it in him, this is a team they can break 366 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:43,920 out against. I'm not so sure they have it in 367 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:44,519 him right now. 368 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:47,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say, I would say, no, they do 369 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:52,559 not rob you. No, I haven't seen anything to make 370 00:18:52,599 --> 00:18:54,720 me think otherwise. You know, I'm a Texas fan. I 371 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:58,119 would love reasons to be happy and cheer and think 372 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,720 that they can be successful, but I haven't seen it. 373 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:05,359 So man having Florida on deck. I mean, that is 374 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:09,559 a huge game. They've already lost one, right, so they're 375 00:19:09,559 --> 00:19:11,519 probably thinking a hell of a lot more about that game. 376 00:19:11,559 --> 00:19:14,480 I think that's a solid point. I couldn't lay with 377 00:19:14,559 --> 00:19:17,039 Texas in this game. It would be Sam Houston State. 378 00:19:17,079 --> 00:19:19,279 I think the market is going right to go down 379 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,279 two points. It's plus thirty nine and a half or 380 00:19:22,319 --> 00:19:27,279 nothing for me, and I don't if I don't trust 381 00:19:27,279 --> 00:19:30,079 Texas offense and I trust the defense more makes me 382 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:31,759 think that this is an undergame as well. 383 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:37,799 Speaker 2: So interesting ski about that line is that if we 384 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,519 go to logic school, would you like to do Sometimes 385 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:44,559 forty two to three Texas win doesn't cover, you know, 386 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,680 by a hook. Forty five to six doesn't cover. And 387 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:48,720 those are huge wins. 388 00:19:48,759 --> 00:19:51,759 Speaker 3: So that's a lot of points the question. 389 00:19:51,839 --> 00:19:54,599 Speaker 1: And you know what, you got to learn these lessons, right. 390 00:19:54,640 --> 00:20:00,680 So earlier in the season I had bet. I bet 391 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,359 Texas on a big point spread after they lost that 392 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:04,880 first game. I think it was Week two. I forgot 393 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,559 who they played, and they lost. I mean they didn't lose, 394 00:20:07,559 --> 00:20:09,960 but they didn't cover. And what I thought to myself 395 00:20:10,039 --> 00:20:13,960 was after the fact, you know, that was not a 396 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:18,079 good bet, Like Texas defense is the unit that we 397 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,720 trust the most. The offense is still work in progress, right, 398 00:20:20,759 --> 00:20:24,319 Like if you're laying minus thirty something forty points, is 399 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,920 Texas even gonna score forty points in this game? Like, 400 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:32,559 I don't trust them to score forty points. So just 401 00:20:32,599 --> 00:20:35,440 off that alone makes me think Sam Houston State and under. 402 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,599 I probably gonna bet one, if not both of those. 403 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:42,279 I don't really like to bet both side in total, 404 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,359 so I probably will pick one. But that was literally 405 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,359 just a thought while we were here on the show. 406 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,160 I didn't even plan to come and talk about that, 407 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,279 but I think, you know, talking stuff out it helps out, 408 00:20:53,279 --> 00:20:56,079 just like that first quarter over yesterday. So you know, 409 00:20:57,039 --> 00:20:59,519 let's do a little bit of NFL Week three. Don't 410 00:20:59,519 --> 00:21:02,599 have that it's time left and you can if you 411 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,480 can probably tell by the banner, it's gonna be just 412 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,559 not so much focused in on one game, a little 413 00:21:09,559 --> 00:21:12,799 bit around the board. But there are some some games 414 00:21:12,839 --> 00:21:15,920 that stand out to me, and I'll go from from 415 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,440 top to bottom, and if you have one chiman as well, 416 00:21:18,519 --> 00:21:19,119 I'll go first. 417 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 2: Though. 418 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 1: The first one that pops out to me is four 419 00:21:25,319 --> 00:21:28,960 fifty three, four fifty four Atlanta and Carolina I mean, 420 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,319 Atlanta open minus two and a half all the way 421 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,720 up to minus five and a half now, and my 422 00:21:36,839 --> 00:21:42,160 thought is just, I know Atlanta won easily last week, 423 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,839 but this is still I mean, I want to call 424 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,240 him a rookie quarterback, Pinnix, he doesn't have that much 425 00:21:50,279 --> 00:21:53,519 experience to what I'm saying. Set another game on the 426 00:21:53,599 --> 00:21:58,680 road after an easy win like that, versus a Panther's 427 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,240 team who I feel like started to find some offensive 428 00:22:02,279 --> 00:22:05,920 rhythm in the second half, and maybe they can you know, 429 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,680 row that over into this home opener for them. I 430 00:22:09,799 --> 00:22:12,240 just really don't believe in land five and a half 431 00:22:12,279 --> 00:22:15,880 with the Falcons. I don't like their coaches, I don't 432 00:22:16,519 --> 00:22:19,440 like the idea of the you know, the inexperienced quarterback, 433 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,039 another game on the road. I don't like any of it. 434 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,400 So I'm trying to find as many reasons as I 435 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,359 can in back the Panthers plus five and a half. 436 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:28,079 What do you think about that? 437 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 3: Rob? You know, well, this line jump could be. 438 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 2: Partially because of what we saw last right, which was 439 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,640 Atlanta simply dominating Minnesota's offense. 440 00:22:41,759 --> 00:22:42,799 Speaker 3: Right. 441 00:22:42,839 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 2: They played that Sunday night game, So it's kind of 442 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,279 a short week for Atlanta here inside the division. Let's 443 00:22:48,319 --> 00:22:51,759 not forget that. To Carolina this is as meaningful to 444 00:22:51,799 --> 00:22:54,119 them as it is to Atlanta. These divisional games mean 445 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:58,839 the most. Atlanta's dominance last week Ski it didn't come 446 00:22:59,559 --> 00:23:03,680 from the offense. It came because Minnesota. And during the 447 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:05,359 game a little bit of this happened. But they were 448 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,839 playing without three starting offensive linemen, and you could line 449 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,480 up your front and just go after these guys who 450 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,960 couldn't block to save their lives. And they really had 451 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,160 no chance Minnesota, they had no chance to throw the football. 452 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,519 So chuck that victory up as you will. But I 453 00:23:23,559 --> 00:23:27,119 think that Atlanta, you know, taking advantage of a severe 454 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,599 cluster injury problem is one thing. If they had scored 455 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,160 a bunch of points in that game, I would think, well, 456 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:36,960 maybe Atlanta's got it right. It seems to me the 457 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,599 only thing Atlanta has right right now is be Jeon Robinson. 458 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 3: Give them the ball, let them go. 459 00:23:42,279 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 2: Carolina knows that they'll probably stack the line look to 460 00:23:45,279 --> 00:23:48,519 take them away. So to your point about taking Carolina, 461 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,759 let's just get into the point spread aspect of it. 462 00:23:51,079 --> 00:23:53,160 Speaker 3: From two and a half to five and a half. Now, 463 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:54,319 if you're taking Carolina. 464 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 2: You just got yourself to three, you got yourself to four. 465 00:23:57,839 --> 00:24:01,200 Those are as key numbers as any in NFL football. 466 00:24:01,319 --> 00:24:03,759 If you're taking an underdog plus three plus four, it's 467 00:24:03,799 --> 00:24:06,359 crossed through all of that and giving you that advantage 468 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,640 for Carolina. So maybe the line was good at two 469 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,799 and a half. Atlanta wins by a field goal. You know, 470 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:13,839 for people who want to come back and middle this thing, 471 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:15,960 if you're lucky enough to get two and a half early, 472 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,279 it's probably a smart play. But I could see taking 473 00:24:19,319 --> 00:24:22,920 Carolina now at this price at home inside division, short 474 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,720 work week for the other side, only a running game 475 00:24:25,759 --> 00:24:28,559 to speak of on offense for the most part, and 476 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:33,880 a team that certainly capitalized on a decimated Vikings offensive front. 477 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,599 Speaker 1: And one thing we know, we just saw it last week. 478 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,720 Panthers are going to play to the there's no more 479 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,559 time on the clock. The back door is always open. 480 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,000 So yeah, this is a play that I'm really trying 481 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,240 to get to the window with. There I might, I 482 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:54,319 very well could get to the window with that. Is 483 00:24:54,319 --> 00:24:55,680 there one that stands out to you that youd like 484 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:56,839 to talk about or should I keep going? 485 00:24:58,519 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 3: Good? 486 00:24:58,799 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 2: Well, I'll just say that this real quick Ski a 487 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:06,279 couple of things that are very noticeable and that are 488 00:25:06,279 --> 00:25:10,240 starting to be brought up. New England's secondary stinks. It's 489 00:25:10,279 --> 00:25:14,000 two weeks in a row. That's a bad secondary unit. 490 00:25:14,319 --> 00:25:18,400 Raiders threw all over them last week. They gave up 491 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,359 a bunch of points in that Dolphins game. And the 492 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,720 other side of that game is Pittsburgh, whose defense has 493 00:25:23,759 --> 00:25:27,079 been just as bad. For some reason, Pittsburgh's picking guys 494 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,319 up off the street now to fill in on defense 495 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:33,200 because they're not very good. Started forty and a half, 496 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,480 the total did up to forty four and a half. 497 00:25:35,519 --> 00:25:37,960 There might still be a little wiggle room there to 498 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,440 play an over and then, along those same exact lines, 499 00:25:41,559 --> 00:25:44,599 just repeat everything I just said for Dallas. At Chicago, 500 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,039 I was on a Sunday show Live Live Game in 501 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:53,559 Game Live, and that game opened forty six the total, 502 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,519 and immediately one of the guys I was on set 503 00:25:56,519 --> 00:25:59,799 with at wager talk here at forty six to the over, 504 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:04,720 it's now fifty and a half. Dallas. They are what 505 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,039 they are. They can score on anybody, but they can't 506 00:26:07,079 --> 00:26:11,039 stop anything. And the Bears get fifty two hung on 507 00:26:11,079 --> 00:26:13,920 them by Detroit last week. They can't stop anything. Both 508 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,319 offenses in good weather should go up and down. Again, 509 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,359 it's hanging under the key number of fifty one, so 510 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,799 you still have some wiggle room there. Last thing, I'll 511 00:26:23,839 --> 00:26:27,640 say real quick, this is as much gut feeling as 512 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:29,640 it is fundamental matchup, etc. 513 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 3: Etc. 514 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,839 Speaker 2: Although the San Francisco injuries do play into this, I 515 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,079 think Arizona's going to go into San Francisco and win. 516 00:26:36,279 --> 00:26:39,039 I'm just not impressed with what San Francisco has. You know, 517 00:26:39,039 --> 00:26:42,200 they beat Seattle in that opening week. Seattle basically beat themselves, 518 00:26:42,279 --> 00:26:47,039 but at San Francisco's skill position players, they're so limited 519 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,880 now without George Kittle, Juwan jennings Is it looks like 520 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:52,640 he hasn't practiced this week. It looks like he's going 521 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,480 to be out again. You're basically hanging your hat on 522 00:26:55,559 --> 00:26:56,319 a banged up. 523 00:26:56,279 --> 00:26:57,559 Speaker 3: Rock Purty if he plays. 524 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 2: And Christian McCaffrey and I just think Arizona's better than that. 525 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:06,160 You know, again, it's a divisional game. Arizona's got a 526 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,319 ton of talent. This game has moved up from forty 527 00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:09,759 two and a half to forty five and a half 528 00:27:09,799 --> 00:27:12,119 based on the brock Purty News and brock Purty is 529 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,920 all fine and well, but when you just don't have 530 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,319 weaponry to go around him, I don't know. I think 531 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:19,599 Arizona can win that game. 532 00:27:21,319 --> 00:27:24,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I agree with with your thought process 533 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:28,799 on those three games that you mentioned. San fran is 534 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:35,960 pretty banged up already. One thing I'll say is I 535 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:37,680 was kind of wrecking my brain on that Dallas in 536 00:27:37,759 --> 00:27:41,839 Chicago side though. And I was liking Dallas just because 537 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,759 I thought, you know, I trust the guys offensively more. 538 00:27:44,799 --> 00:27:47,000 But your boils downs would always say, I don't like 539 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,440 you know, and you don't have to lay much. It's 540 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,480 a small number, but get stops. It makes me feel 541 00:27:53,559 --> 00:27:56,799 very uncomfortable. So maybe the over, like you said, it's 542 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:57,759 just a better way to go. 543 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,400 Speaker 3: That's where three st tequila and pineapples. If you can't get. 544 00:28:02,279 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 1: Started, I'm telling you, are you Something else that was 545 00:28:08,519 --> 00:28:13,079 standing out to me the Green Bay in Cleveland game. 546 00:28:14,279 --> 00:28:17,640 It opened minus seven for Green Bay. It did get 547 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,359 up to like eight and a half or nine at 548 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:22,079 some shops, right and we've seen it come back down. 549 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:27,880 I mean I'm seeing seven and a half. There's some 550 00:28:28,079 --> 00:28:32,359 close to plus money minus one oh five. Seeing the 551 00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:37,240 buy back there is interesting. Green Bay has looked really good, dominant, 552 00:28:37,279 --> 00:28:39,400 whatever you want to call them through these first couple 553 00:28:39,359 --> 00:28:46,039 of weeks. Cleveland is luck pathetic, and still the money's 554 00:28:46,079 --> 00:28:49,480 coming back down on Cleveland. I just I can't really 555 00:28:49,519 --> 00:28:54,720 make sense of it. I mean green I'm just sitting 556 00:28:54,759 --> 00:28:56,799 here thinking, why do I not run to the window 557 00:28:56,839 --> 00:28:58,279 and take Green Bay? Or why do I not go 558 00:28:58,319 --> 00:29:02,079 to the window and just tease Green Bay? Like why are 559 00:29:02,079 --> 00:29:04,079 they not at least going to win the game? And 560 00:29:04,599 --> 00:29:07,960 how does Cleveland even score? I mean, they couldn't get 561 00:29:08,119 --> 00:29:10,279 what the team total. I think it's seventeen and a half. 562 00:29:10,559 --> 00:29:12,759 They haven't been able to clear that yet. Green Bay's 563 00:29:12,759 --> 00:29:17,400 defense looks really good, especially with Parsons over there. How 564 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,599 can Cleveland reach eighteen? How can Cleveland cover this game? 565 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:26,400 Why are people buying Cleveland? 566 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 2: I think the case that will be made for Cleveland 567 00:29:30,279 --> 00:29:33,720 and it, you know, when you watch these two teams play, 568 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,759 the case becomes a little flimsy. But I think it's 569 00:29:36,759 --> 00:29:40,480 built on situation. I think that, you know, because the 570 00:29:40,599 --> 00:29:43,720 NFL is such a tricky sport, the handicap, but you 571 00:29:43,799 --> 00:29:48,759 have Green Bay off of two extremely high profile wins. 572 00:29:49,559 --> 00:29:52,559 It's non conference now it's the perfect spot for a letdown. 573 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,319 It's non conferencing on the road. Green Bay hasn't been 574 00:29:55,359 --> 00:29:59,599 outside of Green Bay yet, it's perfect spot for a letdown. Cleveland, 575 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,839 for what and it's worth, was hanging around in that 576 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,680 game against Baltimore maybe until mid third. I think late 577 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,680 third had started to really bust open. Baltimore picked off 578 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,440 a pass, Baltimore started scoring touchdowns, and then it. 579 00:30:12,359 --> 00:30:13,559 Speaker 3: Was forty one to whatever. 580 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,559 Speaker 2: I think that final score is probably a shade misleading. 581 00:30:18,279 --> 00:30:21,400 And then, last but not least, anybody betting Cleveland is 582 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,680 banking way more on their defense to be able to 583 00:30:24,759 --> 00:30:27,759 keep this thing close. Maybe forced Jordan lovingto a turnover 584 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,720 or two. I think that's the way nobody's looking at 585 00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:34,200 this saying Cleveland on paper is good enough to play 586 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,559 with Green Bay, because what we've seen we. 587 00:30:36,519 --> 00:30:37,039 Speaker 3: Know they're not. 588 00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 2: But those specific situations ski non conference games are the 589 00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,119 third most important to these teams. And if you're gonna 590 00:30:45,119 --> 00:30:47,839 ask a team go win two of the biggest games 591 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,839 of your season, do it both at home, go on 592 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,200 the road. Be better than a touchdown favorite against a 593 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,240 team that stinks. And you can see the letdown formula 594 00:30:56,279 --> 00:31:00,039 that people might be banking on the reason for the 595 00:31:01,279 --> 00:31:04,359 and then the reason for the. 596 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,319 Speaker 3: Comeback of the line could. 597 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 2: Very well be that the whatever groups or whatever who 598 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,400 bet this thing early probably wanted to get this number 599 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,759 from seven up to nine because they liked Cleveland at 600 00:31:15,759 --> 00:31:19,000 a certain price. So they move the line a little 601 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,160 bit to get the bandwagon of the public to follow 602 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:22,720 them till it gets to a point where they can 603 00:31:22,759 --> 00:31:26,240 buy back. Sometimes these they're called false line moves. Sometimes 604 00:31:26,279 --> 00:31:30,799 they happen, but certainly somebody with money wanted that eight 605 00:31:30,839 --> 00:31:32,920 eight and a half with the Cleveland side rather than 606 00:31:33,039 --> 00:31:33,759 just plus seven. 607 00:31:35,799 --> 00:31:38,839 Speaker 1: All right, almost run out of time here. Stat's asking 608 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,200 to we cover Giants and Chiefs. I mean, I don't. 609 00:31:42,599 --> 00:31:45,119 I don't feel very strongly about that. But what I 610 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,599 do think is the Chiefs shouldn't really be laying these 611 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:54,119 kind of points right now. They do need to win, desperately. 612 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,480 Needs to win doesn't mean no cover. And my personal 613 00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,319 opinion is Patrick Mahomes is that the master of winning 614 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:05,039 and not covering. Giants have a really good defensive line. 615 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,000 Patrick Mahomes doesn't have a lot of weapons to throw 616 00:32:08,039 --> 00:32:11,920 to I would be taking the Giants plus six and 617 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:16,000 a half if I'm been that spread any thoughts there 618 00:32:16,039 --> 00:32:16,480 real quick. 619 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say to you before you said that, 620 00:32:20,519 --> 00:32:22,839 would you tease Kansas City and Green Bay and just 621 00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:23,519 ask both. 622 00:32:23,319 --> 00:32:24,359 Speaker 3: Of them to win the games? 623 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 2: Very possible, But where the Giants are concerned, I'd be 624 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,440 just a shade cautious so offensively because they did all 625 00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,000 their damage last week against Dallas. Dallas, like we mentioned, 626 00:32:37,119 --> 00:32:39,759 is just the shoddiest defense out there. So maybe Russell 627 00:32:39,759 --> 00:32:42,519 Wilson comes back to Earth. I was a little surprised 628 00:32:42,519 --> 00:32:45,319 it went so high towards the overski forty one and 629 00:32:45,319 --> 00:32:47,279 a half all the way to forty five, because putting 630 00:32:47,279 --> 00:32:49,799 together what you said and what I'm thinking would lead 631 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,200 me more to believe that this is kind of a 632 00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:56,279 twenty four, seventeen, twenty three, twenty type game under forty five. 633 00:32:56,319 --> 00:32:58,559 So I'll look at it a little more. It's not 634 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:00,759 till Sunday night, but that's kind of the way I 635 00:33:00,799 --> 00:33:01,640 see it right now. 636 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:07,759 Speaker 1: Fair there is there was another one that I wanted 637 00:33:07,759 --> 00:33:11,160 to mention. Really, there's there's a couple I want to mention, 638 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:16,279 but here, let't do like this. I don't think Jacksonville's 639 00:33:16,319 --> 00:33:21,400 defense is any good. I think, man, it's killing me 640 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,200 what I'm seeing from Houston right now. But I think CJ. 641 00:33:24,279 --> 00:33:29,039 Stroud is still better than what he's shown, you know lately, 642 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,759 getting points with them, Man, I think they can win 643 00:33:33,839 --> 00:33:35,200 the game. I'm really trying to find a lot of 644 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,400 reasons to back Houston here, and it just starts with, 645 00:33:37,559 --> 00:33:39,599 like how I thought about the Atlanta game. I don't 646 00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:43,240 really like the thought of laying with Jacksonville laying anything, 647 00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:48,200 So I'm looking at that, and other than that, I 648 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,039 think that you're paying a little bit of a premium 649 00:33:50,119 --> 00:33:54,480 for Seattle here versus New Orleans. Seven and a half 650 00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:58,279 point favorite just seems like too much. If New Orleans 651 00:33:58,319 --> 00:34:00,359 front can get a little bit of pressure. We know 652 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,920 Sam Darnold is not good when he's pressured. And they 653 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:07,319 do have a big game coming up on Thursday versus 654 00:34:07,319 --> 00:34:13,039 the Cardinals. So the Saints that looked better so far 655 00:34:13,159 --> 00:34:16,639 this season than I thought. I think that they can 656 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,320 keep it respectable. So trying to bet Houston also looking 657 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:25,239 at the Saints. Any thoughts on either one of those games, I. 658 00:34:25,199 --> 00:34:26,079 Speaker 3: Can get there with you. 659 00:34:26,519 --> 00:34:29,559 Speaker 2: On Houston, let's face it, they played two teams that 660 00:34:29,559 --> 00:34:31,320 are going to the playoffs to start the season. They 661 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,400 played the Rams super good defense. They played the Tampa 662 00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:38,519 Bay defensive front, which is really good. Their secondary is 663 00:34:38,559 --> 00:34:40,639 the weakness. But if you don't have time like CJ. 664 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,320 Sdrug didn't, you know you're gonna have trouble. So those 665 00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,920 two teams and they almost beat Tampa. This is a 666 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,559 huge step down in klass Ski And let's just say 667 00:34:50,559 --> 00:34:54,320 this that Joe Burrow went out of the game last week, 668 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:58,719 Jake Browning came in and Jacksonville had their hands full, 669 00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:02,480 which and in the end didn't even beat him. Trevor 670 00:35:02,559 --> 00:35:05,840 Lawrence still looks like Trevor Lawrence to me. And they 671 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,719 don't pressure. They just don't pressure the way the Rams 672 00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:12,440 and Bucks do. So I can totally see Houston. And again, 673 00:35:12,639 --> 00:35:14,599 let's just make this because this is usually one of 674 00:35:14,639 --> 00:35:17,199 the biggest points in my handicap. It's a divisional game. 675 00:35:17,519 --> 00:35:19,239 Houston can look at their record and say we're oh 676 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,480 in two, but we're not. We're oh and oh inside 677 00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,079 the division. Let's win the division first, and it starts 678 00:35:24,119 --> 00:35:27,239 right here with Jacksonville. So I like Houston as well. 679 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,119 I think that their defense can make life miserable for 680 00:35:31,199 --> 00:35:33,719 Trevor Lawrence and the other game. I don't have a 681 00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,840 real stout opinion on I do think Seattle's offense is 682 00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:37,360 coming around. 683 00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 3: I saw Zach Sharbone. He's hurt a little bit here. 684 00:35:39,519 --> 00:35:40,760 We'll see what goes on there. 685 00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:45,079 Speaker 2: Spencer Rattler, I've always liked as a QB and he 686 00:35:45,159 --> 00:35:46,960 does have some weaponry. But I haven't looked at that 687 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,280 game real hard, so I'll reserve any comment on that one. 688 00:35:50,199 --> 00:35:52,440 Speaker 1: Fair all right, I think we did a pretty good job. 689 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:57,079 We I mean, damn near test all the games, not 690 00:35:57,119 --> 00:35:58,519 all of them, but I think we did a pretty 691 00:35:58,519 --> 00:36:03,000 good job. So it is about that time Rovino before 692 00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,079 we go to best Bets. I'm gonna put this up 693 00:36:06,119 --> 00:36:09,760 there because it is still going Rovino the Weekend or 694 00:36:10,159 --> 00:36:12,519 Weekend Warrior, I don't check. It is still going. So 695 00:36:13,159 --> 00:36:16,039 you can get every football play from whoever you choose, 696 00:36:16,519 --> 00:36:19,079 and it's only forty nine dollars, and it does include 697 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,199 Monday night football as well, So I mean, I think 698 00:36:22,199 --> 00:36:25,000 that's a hell of a deal. I will be making 699 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:30,599 my decisions today, tonight, maybe even some tomorrow, and just 700 00:36:30,639 --> 00:36:32,360 adding as I go along. So if you want to 701 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,119 roll with me, I think that's a good way to 702 00:36:34,119 --> 00:36:36,360 do it. If you want to roll with rovino. You know, 703 00:36:36,599 --> 00:36:40,199 same can be said there. So on that note, time 704 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,480 to move it over the best bets and vino. If 705 00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:46,079 I ask you if you have a best bet, you 706 00:36:46,079 --> 00:36:47,639 know we would love to hear it. But if you 707 00:36:47,679 --> 00:36:50,280 do not, it's all good. And if you have anything 708 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,079 else to promo, you know, feel free. 709 00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:56,480 Speaker 2: I'll just add to the weekend Warrior things Ski, if 710 00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,039 you're looking to get all three day Saturday, Sunday, Monday, 711 00:36:59,039 --> 00:37:02,199 every prayer players for just forty nine bucks, I've already 712 00:37:02,199 --> 00:37:05,719 put up a five percent college football play on a 713 00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:09,800 five and oh NFL run four and oh Sunday one 714 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:12,199 and O last night, So five and oh in college 715 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,920 football raked in about ten or eleven units last week, 716 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,199 and so seeing it pretty well right now where football 717 00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:20,480 is concerned. Once again, like Ski mentioned weekend Warrior package, 718 00:37:20,519 --> 00:37:22,800 forty nine bucks and you will get the five percent 719 00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:24,920 blue chip that's already up there. I'll go back to 720 00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:26,800 where we started this whole thing. I just don't know 721 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:30,480 how big shouldn't say that, because certainly New York can win, 722 00:37:30,559 --> 00:37:33,719 But in my opinion, Phoenix is the better side right now. 723 00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,480 Phoenix is easily to meet three points better than New 724 00:37:36,559 --> 00:37:39,880 York their current status. So for me, best bet will 725 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:41,280 be Phoenix minus two and a half. 726 00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:46,480 Speaker 1: Good stuff from Rovino. U Capper in the chat says 727 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:50,519 he's going to that Seahawks game this weekend. He says, ski, 728 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:52,840 did they see the picture they used for me and you? 729 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,159 I need to take new pictures with a hat? I 730 00:37:55,199 --> 00:37:57,800 didn't even see it. So you got lucky. You lucked 731 00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,360 out here, you capper all I put up on this 732 00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:03,000 show and I guess I'll use that as a little 733 00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,679 extra promo here. It was this one. Yeah, just so 734 00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:08,679 you got lucky. It's no picture of you on here 735 00:38:09,079 --> 00:38:11,679 without the hat. But it's a chance to rock with 736 00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:16,000 Yukapur and I at a discount, and like I said yesterday, 737 00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,559 with the money you're saving, you can go, you know, 738 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,800 pick up rob as well. But I do have a 739 00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:28,239 five percent play going tonight in the w NBA, so 740 00:38:28,519 --> 00:38:30,679 it's a perfect time to get involved there rather than 741 00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:32,360 just you know, by the single play. If you want 742 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:34,280 to buy a single play and check it out, you know, 743 00:38:35,599 --> 00:38:37,679 that's your choice, but you can get the whole rest 744 00:38:37,679 --> 00:38:40,679 of the playoffs. We cashed last year number one, number two. 745 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,679 We're trying to do that again here. This year, best 746 00:38:44,679 --> 00:38:47,960 best for this show, man, I'm not gonna give a 747 00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,519 best bet, but what I am going to do, I'm 748 00:38:50,519 --> 00:38:56,079 gonna say I like from what we've talked about, I 749 00:38:56,119 --> 00:38:59,159 really like the under in that Iowa game. That makes 750 00:38:59,159 --> 00:39:01,199 a lot of sense. I'm going to think about it 751 00:39:01,199 --> 00:39:02,599 a little bit more, talk about a little bit more 752 00:39:02,639 --> 00:39:06,360 on this next show I'm going to do. And as 753 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:08,639 far as if I'm betting these games that we talked 754 00:39:08,639 --> 00:39:11,559 about in the NFL, the ones I'm closest to right 755 00:39:11,599 --> 00:39:14,559 now as of this moment, Caroline plus five and a 756 00:39:14,599 --> 00:39:20,840 half and Caroline plus five and a half and the Saints. 757 00:39:21,079 --> 00:39:23,599 So I'll leave you with those three. Haven't put anything 758 00:39:23,639 --> 00:39:25,199 in yet. If you want to know when I put 759 00:39:25,199 --> 00:39:27,320 them in, we can worry. Is a great way to 760 00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:32,159 do it. Roveno. Always tell you, I appreciate you taking 761 00:39:32,159 --> 00:39:34,400 it time to break these games down with me. Helps 762 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,400 my process. I'm sure you know. Helping out everybody else 763 00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,760 out there as well, people in the chat. You guys 764 00:39:41,199 --> 00:39:43,079 bring a lot to the show. The show is not 765 00:39:43,159 --> 00:39:45,679 the same without you. A lot of great people, great cappers, 766 00:39:46,079 --> 00:39:49,800 and you know, I appreciate everybody helping each other, you know, 767 00:39:50,039 --> 00:39:52,119 trying to help each other win. That's all we're trying 768 00:39:52,159 --> 00:39:55,039 to do here. So appreciate you guys. I do see 769 00:39:55,039 --> 00:40:01,239 everything up there, Rono, Kick twitch X. We appreciate all 770 00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:04,239 you guys, Apple, Spotify, And this is the last show 771 00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,320 for the week, so we'll be back on Monday. Best 772 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,039 of luck with all your action over the weekend, and yeah, 773 00:40:10,199 --> 00:40:11,280 we'll catch you next week.