Speaker 1: Welcome to Wager Talk Today, the gold standard of sports
betting shows, where we talk to talk and walk the
walk to Big Tuesday, another loaded show to grow your
bank roll. Jesse Show is gonna join us. I lost
a bet to Jesse. He's gonna give us two football
teams to fade this week, and we're gonna break down Grizzlies, Nicks,
Brian Power, asking a lot of Brian Warriors, Thunder Kentucky
Louisville and college basketball and the Spain game where we
are gracious enough to send over Marcus Mariota versus two
and that should be an incredible breakdown. Carmide's gonna jump
on short notices, is gonna go over the TNT doubleheader,
Leaf Bruins, Ducks Abs. Let's get it started with our
theme of the day. And here's where I need help
from the chat comment section. And I'm gonna ask our
guests if we if they have any opinions on this.
What is a movie that is not very good but
that you love to watch? So I there's a reason
for this. I'll tell you at the end of the show.
Speaker 2: What is a move?
Speaker 1: It is not very good? You know, it's not very good?
And yet you love watching it. I have a ton
of them, but I settled on Tango and Cash. To me,
the movie's awful, it's it's terrible, and yet anytime it's on,
I just I can't stop watching it. So my Tango
in Cash and there's a reason for this. So I'm
gonna keep notes on all of these, so let me
know in the in the comments and the chat section.
All right, let's bring on Jesse. Jesse. Congratulations, I mean,
first off, congratulations you, and I mean you and you
crushed over the in college football over the weekend. So
first off, congratulations sweep. Am I correct on that.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I put out six videos on all platforms last week
and they all came in. We even got Hawaii as
a seven point home dog winning out right. I was
a little bit disappointed that Penn State couldn't win out right,
but we got the cover a six and Ozero sweep
is always nice, so it felt good.
Speaker 1: Well, well, I'm glad Penn State didn't win out right,
being the IU fan that I am. So let's start
with college football. You have two teams that you're fade
and you're going to the same part of the country here,
Virginia West Virginia. Let's start with Virginia. Why are we
fading Virginia this week?
Speaker 3: Well, a lot of the Sharps were against Virginia last week.
They were playing Wake Forest. Everybody says Virginia is a fraud.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: I wasn't quite as enthusiastic about that take heading into
the wake Forest game, because who the hell's Wake Forest anyways,
you know, And sure enough, Virginia loses that game. But
would they have lost that game if Chandler Morris didn't
get hurt in the first half. He got hit by
not one but two Wake defenders as he was sliding.
Both of them probably should have been tossed. I haven't
heard an update on Chandler Morris, the UVA quarterback. Yet
he may play, he may not. This line to me
looks like it's sort of middled. I think it goes
up and over seven if he's out, and it comes
down to five and a half five if he's announced
to be playing. But yeah, we have an eight and
two Virginia team against a five and four Duke team.
But strength of schedule, as our producer Dan was mentioning,
is always key, and according to Sagarin, Virginia's played the
sixty first strength of schedule while Duke has played the
thirty ninth, and offensively, these teams just don't match up.
Duke has the number one pass offense in the ACC
three hundred and thirteen passing yards per game. Darien Mensa
probably the best quarterback in the ACC, and without Morris,
Virginia's got no hope of keeping up. Even with Morris,
if you look at the last four games, this offense
has averaged fewer than twenty points against the likes of
Washington State, North Carolina, cal and Wake. Duke doesn't have
much of a defense, but certainly a step up in
class here. And speaking of Chandler Morris, whether he plays
or not, let's look at his home away splits. He's
completing sixty nine percent of his passes at home, sixty
four percent on the road. He's got nine touchdowns at home,
three on the road, three picks at home, two on
the road, averaging eight point five yards per attempt at
home and six yards per attempt on the road. This
is a tough spot for a Virginia team that's inflated
based on the record against poor teams. We're gonna take
Duke Baby minus six.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Well, the bet was that.
Speaker 2: The Ohio gross.
Speaker 1: This is so gross, all right. So the bet was
if I didn't cover, then I had to wear a
shirt and a hat from somebody else. And my next
door neighbor is one of the biggest Ohio State f
on the planet. But I will say I didn't even
think about that. But yeah, it does look like that.
I didn't even think about that. Yeah, it's not bad.
It's not bad. It's just listen, it's fun that I
can actually talk to my Ohio State friends about football. Now,
that's just it's a big win for me here. So
I'm very happy about this.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Let's uh, let's move to West Virginia here, Jesse, Why
why are we fading West Virginia.
Speaker 3: West Virginia simply just isn't a very good team, and
either coming off back to back wins, feel good wins.
Sure they looked well, they didn't look that good against Colorado.
I gotta say I did bet on West Virginia last
week at home against Colorado. They let the Buffaloes hang
around in that game with their freshman quarterback. Their defense
didn't impress me. Now they're on the road at Arizona State,
I don't I really don't know what West virgin has
to play for. I mean, technically, you look at they're
sitting on four wins, they got two games left, they
could become Bowl eligible.
Speaker 2: But the only way.
Speaker 3: You can roll with that theory is if you believe
that they they believe they can go into Texas Tech
and win in their final game of the season. And
I don't think that's happening. Nobody's beaten Texas Tech in
the Big Twelve anymore. That ship has sailed. But if
you look at the Big Twelve standings, aside from Texas Tech,
you got BYU and Cincinnati both at five and one,
and then you've got three teams with two losses. That's Houston, Utah,
and Arizona State. It's not over for Arizona State. Dillingham
said this in his recent press conference. There's still a
path and it would be so appropriate in this conference
with all the chaos in the Big Twelve. For example,
the two teams that are sitting ahead of them in
the standings, BYU and Cincinnati, they play each other next week.
They both have challenging games on this week's schedule. These
teams are probably going to lose a game or two before.
Speaker 2: The season's done.
Speaker 3: And you look at Arizona's State's schedule, They've got winnable
games against West Virginia, Colorado, and Arizona. Now, they do
have a pretty poor quarterback in Jeff Simms, who really
struggled at Nebraska. He was flat out brutal. He's not
very great at throwing the ball. He is a senior,
though he has experience. In his last start at Iowa State,
he threw for two hundred and twenty eight sorry, he
ran for two hundred and twenty eight yards two touchdowns
on twenty nine carries. I would expect him to be
running the ball here again. On West Virginia, I just
think West Virginia one of the worst defenses in the
Big Twelve. On the road, coming off back to back
feel good wins, it's time for a letdown. I'll take
Arizona State minus eleven and a half.
Speaker 1: All right. I can't disagree with any of those, So
I don't think you and I are going head ahead
this week. But we do this interesting NBA matchup between
the Grizzlies and the Knicks that you're gonna break down
for us I get this John Morant thing is absolutely bizarre,
Like he clearly does want to be here. You have
Kevin Durant talking to John Moranth's dad, say, you know
you want to be here past the weekend, but you
know they played a night. John is playing, He's shooting
the ball a lot, He's not making a whole lot
of them. But how do you break down the Grizzlies
in the Knicks tonight?
Speaker 3: Yeah, John Morant eleven points on three of eighteen shooting
against Oklahoma City. He clearly doesn't give a rats ass.
No way I could have Memphis here just getting single digits.
If I was taking the side, it would have to
be the Knicks or pass total sits at two thirty
one and a half. Grizzlies probably aren't intending to play
much defense. Knicks are six and zero at home, They're
on a four game winning streak. I gotta look to
the player prompt market, and I got a look to
my man, Josh Hart. I gave a Josh Hart in
a player prop a couple weeks back. Didn't work out well.
His first four games of the season. He was absolutely brutal.
He wasn't getting a lot of playing time, he wasn't
very productive. However, over his last four games, thirteen point
eight points per game, seven point eight rebounds per game.
I'm looking at over fifteen and a half points and
rebounds for Josh Hart. Now I mentioned the last four games.
If you look at his home away splits. All four
of those games were home games, by the way, but
just look at his home away splits and the difference
is stark just road to home. Nine rebounds per game
at home so far this season. You got the center
Mitch Robinson listed as questionable. He hasn't been able to
play twenty minutes in his last three games. He's been
banged up, playing low minutes, which opens up more time
for Josh Hart. There's only four teams in the NBA
that allow more fantasy points to power forwards than Memphis.
The Grizzlies or allowing opposing power forwards to average twenty
four and a half points and eleven rebounds per game. Now,
Josh Hart's not the biggest guy, maybe a borderline power forward,
but that's the position the Knicks like to use him
out and he is capable of pulling in those rebounds.
The home away splits don't lie the numbers a little low,
so Josh Hart over fifteen and a half points in rebounds.
Speaker 1: All right, I love the breakdown. And before before we
went live, I told you, guys, you need a movie
that is it's not very good and you love watching it.
And you said, oh that's easy.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah.
Speaker 3: It popped in my head immediately. I didn't have to
think about it. It's a B movie, a B comedy
made twenty years ago or something. It's Idiocracy with Luke Wilson.
It was meant to be a comedy, but now when
you watch it, it's like a documentary. It's like predicting
the future. It's so goddamn accurate. Particularly have you seen
the Have you seen the movie?
Speaker 1: No, I have it.
Speaker 3: This is absolutely must do. Idiocracy with Luke Wilson. Load
that one up. It will blow it will it's life changing,
it will blow your mind. Oh it's an absolute metaphor
for what has happened to the planet over the last
twenty years.
Speaker 1: All right, idiocrity it is going to become Oh man, okay,
idiocracy has gone all list. We got a lot of
good ones. Yes, love the Ohio State. About time you
represent someone. This is my buddy who gave me next
year Halloween, you wear that that checkered suit code that
he wears and dress up as Ryan Dave for Halloween.
I think you could pull it off. I could pull
it off. I could pull it off. Be careful, man,
I own your shirt and hat now for the next hour,
so there's no telling what condition it's going to come
back to you in Jesse. Congratulations on the sweep. What
do you have up for everybody? It's five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 3: So I got a five dollars play in the NHL
that I really like, a really interesting scheduling spot for
the hockey. And I'm seven and one with my last
eight college football. My five percent play last week was Kentucky.
They won thirty eight to six or something over Florida
as an underdog. I've got a five percent play up
for next week. Already, five straight winning Saturdays. You want
to grab that weekend warrior package and get all those
college football and NFL on Sunday. That's definitely the best
bang for your buck.
Speaker 1: That's incredible, man, Five winning saturdays in a row, incredible
street Jesse. It's really really good. So Jesse Schule take
advantage of five dollars Tuesday. Thank you very much for
the breakdown, and thank you very much for solving my
Halloween costume for next year. This is going to be
don't forget to watch that movie and Idiocracy. Yes, absolutely,
Jesse Schule, everybody, thank you very much. We got some
incredible movie submissions. We got Tangoing Cash, The Longest Yard, Commando,
Tropic Thunder, Black Dog, Pineapple Express, How High, Super Bad Life.
This one's this was Cheech and show Up in Smoke. Uh, Earnest,
Scared stupid. I didn't see an Earnest movie being submitted, Idiocracy,
Hot Tub, Time Machine, and Shooter. So the theme is
a movie that's not very good, but you can't rob.
You don't think Point Breank is point Point Break is
very good. I think the movie is incredible. Ah wow,
shots fired a Point brank man. All right, let's bring
on Brian Power. Let's see if he has a movie
that is not very good but he loves Brian. Do
you have one?
Speaker 4: I guess you don't get to be I guess you
don't get to be president today. Andy, right then, yeah,
Point Brank was good back in the day. I don't know,
it's been a long time.
Speaker 2: I saw.
Speaker 4: I don't get into that remix. All those remakes stink,
but the original I enjoyed. Back there, I see somebody
drop Commando in the Yeah, that one. So I would
say this, if you don't want to watch the whole movie,
just watch the opening scene, which is Arnold schwartzeg'er just
inexplicably carrying a tree back home. And then there's this
horrible forced interplay with him and his daughter in the
movie where he picks up the newspaper and starts talking
current events. It's a ridiculous opening three minutes to the movie.
Always makes me good. You watching it after I'm gotten
here with you, Edy, I ain't going on now make
me laugh every time.
Speaker 1: See that's what we're talking about here. So all right, Brian,
we're gonna break down.
Speaker 2: Boy.
Speaker 1: You get NFL, you get college basketball, you get NBA.
Let's start to a marquee game of the night in
the NBA Warriors versus Thunder. Looks like for the most part,
teams are very playing. Everybody. Dort is gonna be out
for the Thunder. He's still dealing with that injury. But
pretty good game here, Warriors and Thunder. The Thunder just
keep on rolling unintended here, just this Thunder roll tonight.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, what else can you say about? Okay,
see and either ten one outscoring opponents by a league
best thirteen point six points per game. Each of the
last five wins have been by double digits. Let's note, however, Okay, obviously,
the NBA is a game of runs. Often. The Thunder
did trail Memphis by eleven at halftime on Sunday, but
SGA led a big second half rally finished with a
team high thirty five. Golden State also had Monday off.
They two were coming off the doublegit win beat the
Pacers one, fourteen to eighty three, and they did so
andy despite shooting only twenty seven point three percent from three.
Of course, Indiana, they were shorthanded going into that game
as well. I don't need to tell you it's been
a really poor start to the season for the Pacers,
which was largely anticipated. The good news for the Warriors tonight,
gang is Steph Curry expected to return. He's missed the
last three games due to illness. You would think his
presence alone would bump up the three point shooting. But
here's the bad news for Golden State not only are
you facing the thunder, you're doing so on the road.
Warriors just one in five on the highway so far.
Okay see. Meanwhile has when each of its four home games.
I realize, okay, see, they don't have Dort, they don't
have Wiggins, and of course Jane Williams is yet to
play this season. However, it just has not mattered.
Speaker 2: Andy.
Speaker 4: I would lay it here. These are not your older brothers, Warriors.
I'm looking at the best splits. You know, Golden State's
getting a lot of. It's this numbers holding steady. Oklahoma
City is just simply a much better team. It would take,
you know, a bad night from three or a lot
of turnovers, or just something unforeseen. It's just very hard
to make a case not to play OKAC at the
current number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is just a freight train. I don't want
to get in the way of I actually I actually
had the nerve to come on camera and say they
might struggle out of the gate.
Speaker 4: My god, yeah yeah, I mean, well, look, I mean
it's in the modern NBA. You'd expect that, right. Teams
of sleepwalk a lot. I mean, the regular This is
this one sport where the regular season. You know, it
doesn't matter a ton, but they're not for blood and
the West is tough this year, so you know, they
can't relax too much if they want the top sea.
There's a lot of obviously, Denver's very good, Houston's very good.
San Antonio much better than expected, so you know, Okay, see,
they can't take too many nights off if they want
to stay in that number one position.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agreed that West is just my gosh, those
teams got to be like, God, could one of us
go over there in the East, please, just one of
us go over in the East?
Speaker 2: Please?
Speaker 4: Two thousand and three all over again?
Speaker 2: Please? Can we?
Speaker 1: Yes, it really is. Let's move to college basketball. I
think it's a tough part of the year. But we've
had a lot of people say, hey, if you follow
these teams, you have all the advantage because the bulls
have no clue about these teams. So talk to us
about Kentucky and Louisville. What do you know about these
two teams? What's the roster makeup, and how we breaking
down this game tonight.
Speaker 4: Well, first things first, if you want to know more
about college basketball, guys, there's a great place to go
Full Court Press ten Am Eastern Live here on the
wayge Talk YouTube channel, myself, Adam Trigger and Robo every
Monday through Friday again ten Am Eastern breaking down the
entire college sate. We go an hour. We take your questions.
Obviously we talk all the big games, but any games
you guys want to get I see with familiar names
in the chat right here that joined us today, always appreciated.
Thanks for tuning in, so that's where you'll get your
big college basketball fix each and every day. We did
obviously lead by talking about this Kentucky Louisville game and
the story here Andy, before I even get into the breakdown.
If you guys don't have the odds screen up right now,
the big story is the line movement. Betters love Louisville here.
They've moved from three and a half to six and
a half. They love the over which has moved from
one sixty six and a half to one seventy four.
There have been crazy moves on these early season college
basketball totals, Andy, and more often than not, the moves
are right. There was a game on opening night we
were marveling at on Full Court Press. Ohio State took
on IU Indy the total move by ten points and
it still went over by a million. It was a
game where there's there were NBA games that featured less
scoring than that one on that particular night. But I'll
share my thoughts on the line movement just a minute.
Speaker 2: But just here.
Speaker 4: Here's how the matchup looks. First time since twenty nineteen
that both these teams come into the matchup ranked. It's
a triple revenge spot for Louisville playing at home. Kentucky
has won eight of the previous ten meetings overall. Of course,
more pertinent for our discussion here, Wildcats seven to two
to one against the spread in those last ten meetings
last year failed to cover UK did They only won
ninety three eighty five as ten point chock shot the
lights out Kentucky did last year fifty eight percent overall,
fifty two percent for three Lamont Butler didn't miss a
single field goal attempt, finished with thirty three in case
you forgot, of course, that was in Lexington. Though Tonight
games at the KFC Young Center in Louisville. It's gonna
be the first true road game for Kentucky. Wildcats have
smashed each of their first two games, seventy seven to
fifty one over Nichols one a seven to fifty nine
over Valpo. Hard to learn much, obviously, any from a
couple games where we have a thirty point favorite, winning
easily both times. Basically, Kentucky did what you'd expect. This
is a team that scored one hundred or more six
times last season. No Trent Noah against Valpo is worth
noting he tweaked his ankle in the opener. I don't
have an update whether Knowa's going to play tonight, but
considering the Wildcats have seven guys averaging in double figures
so far, if no A were to be out again,
I'm not sure it's a huge deal that should affect
the handicap too much. Now Louisville, similar to Kentucky, has
had an easy time in their first two games. They
have shot seventy two percent from two point range so far. Now,
that was against South Carolina State and Jackson State teams
they were able to put up triple digits against. This
is the first time in the last five seasons Louisville
has started too and out. Hadley missed the last game
for Louisville. He was in concussion protocol. Check his status.
Make sure to do that. He was the lone returning
starter from last year's team, but prior back from an
ACL injury for Louisville, he missed most of last year.
Head coach Pat Kelsey said this about prior he will
quote take us to a whole other level this season. Overall,
I like this Louisville team, andy is. The market seems
to agree obviously, as I mentioned the opening and what's
interesting here higher ranked team Kentucky taking points, Yet the
line is moving in Louisville's direction, I assumed, and maybe
still do that. Can the public is going to be
on Kentucky here. They are number one in the Ken
Palm rankings. For what that's worth. I wanted to come
on here tell everyone to back Louisville, but this line movement,
I don't know.
Speaker 1: Man, Now you're.
Speaker 4: Talking they have to win by two possessions. So my
official lean here alternate way to play Louisville team total
over ninety and a half. To beat Kentucky, you need
to put up a big point total. I talked about
this as a team that scored triple digits six times
last season, so I think if Louisville. If you like
the Louisville side, going over ninety and a half would
be the way to go.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what's interesting. We've been talking about line moves,
and boy, they sometimes they just tell you everything you
need to know. You don't even need to do the research.
It's like there's other people doing the research for you
and they just let you know in those line moves.
So I'm I'm sure the books, if they see those
line moves, they know they got the number wrong because
you know, it only takes a few people to realize
that numbers off.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I and you know, uh, we talked. I talked
about this with Joe Vernari, my good friend Jovernary for
that matter, on the best betting show ever yesterday we
talked about the tech in college football, that Texas Tech
BYU game on Saturday, where I just couldn't believe that
Texas Tech went off as a thirteen and a half
point favorite. But to your point, Andy, the books were
telling you all you needed to know there that an
undefeated BYU team was about to get smashed in Lubbock,
and that is precisely what happened.
Speaker 1: Let's move to the NFL before what.
Speaker 4: I know, it's very like unprofessional. I apologize any of those,
but I'm looking at the chance somebody like referred to
Glen Gary Glenn Ross as a guilty player. That's just
a phenomenal movie. And that's not like a bad movie.
Speaker 2: You get that.
Speaker 4: That's a phenomenal film. Imagine not loving Glenn Gary Glenn Ross.
That's a fit if you have If anyone out there
in TV land hasn't seen Glenn Gary Glenn Ross, change
that afternoon, that is a phenomenal film.
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you. Cocktail is just absolutely fantastic. That
is a great call. That's that's the epitome of a
bad movie that I will watch every single minute of
over and over and over again. So uh, one thing
I will not watch over and over and over again
is The Commanders and Dolphins over in Spain. This got
added to the list of games that that you're gonna
break down. Unfortunately Chris forgot to put it in slack.
You have to do it in Spanish, just you know,
for the theme. So so the floor is yours. No,
I'm just kidding you don't, but I did. I will
say this este juego a pasta. Oh very good, Thank
you very much. That Google tells me that that is
Spanish for this game stinks. Yeah, Miami at minus two
and a half and the over under forty seven and
a half. My gosh, uh, how do you break this
game down?
Speaker 4: Well, no oblo spen all, but I did come prepared
by la legua mug Barcelona. Here we're drinking out of now.
This game takes the place and their rival Real Madrid.
Carvine's coming on after me too. He's got to appreciate
the mug. But this one's at the San Diego Bernabow.
Let's start Andy by discussing. Look, it is an ugly matchup.
We all understand that we need to start by discussing
the Commander's wolful defense. Last week, before Jared Goff got
pulled with just under seven minutes to go, the Commanders
were letting Detroit gain eight point eight yards per play.
That is just an atrocious number at the professional level.
It ended up being the Commander's fourth straight loss by
twenty one or more points, fifth straight loss overall. Interestingly,
it's also there it was their second time losing by
the exact score of forty four to twenty two, so
It's kind of an odd score to lose. To lose
by twice in a four week span, this is a
pretty big fall from grace for a Commander's team that
was in the NFC Championship Game last January. Of course,
we all understand Jane Daniels has been hurt much of
this season, Marcus Mariota hasn't been great, But it is
the defense Andy that is killing the Commanders right now.
Twenty eighth in points allowed, thirtieth in yards allowed. Head
coach Dan Quinn is set to take over play calling
duties now on that side of the ball. He's so disgusted.
Pain is out the defensive tackle because he punched on
on Rossling Brown last week. But again, I mean, you
look at this defense, how poorly they've been playing. I mean,
if you lose a guy isn't really that big of
a deal considering what they've done. So there's just not
a ton of positives to speak on the Washington side. Meanwhile,
Miami coming off their best performance of the season and
one of the biggest upsets we've seen so far this
NFL season, beating Buffalo thirty to thirteen. There really was
not anything phony about it. Dolphins defense held the Bills
to basically half of its season average in rush yards. Now,
three Bills turnovers did help, guys, I understand that, especially
considering all three of those turnovers I believe occurred on
the Miami side of the field. Also worth noting, Miami
did go into that game with a couple extra days
to prepare. They'd played Thursday. Of course, the previous week, Buffalo,
I think you could argue, was in a clear letdown
spot coming off the big win over Kansas City. I
regret to inform all of you, however, after speaking so
ill of Washington that I am showing value on that here,
I don't really I want to come on and tell
you guys to put your hard earned money on the
Commanders playing an eleventh consecutive week, Not to mention overseas,
this team desperately needs to get to the buy that
will happen for them next week. But I simply cannot
and will not back the Miami Dolphins as a favorite,
Andy Lag this is a team that's been favored previously
three times they've lost outright place at plus three. I
would have to strongly consider Washington here. As bad as
they have been the lion stays below two. Maybe throw
Washington at a teaser, but Washington is it would be
Washington or Pass is disgusting as that is, And I
apologize to everything.
Speaker 1: Listen, you were as signed of the game. You did
not pick the game.
Speaker 4: Look, I mean I have power ratings and they just
say the Miami Dolphins can't be favorite. I understand, you know.
Sometimes Look, you can't be prisoners of the moment. Okay,
your eye test will tell you that Washington is Orlin.
I'll be honesty. It's not good right now. But my
I mean, this is a Miami team. Andy, I don't
need to tell you. I mean, people basically go in
every week. Is this Mike McDaniel's last game in charge?
Speaker 1: It's Oh, what a world? What a world we live in?
Speaker 4: Colin in the chat, I don't disagree with that. Redskins
the Texans as the second leg of a possible teaser
with the commanders there.
Speaker 1: Oh right, Brian, it's five dollars Tuesday. What do you
have up for everybody?
Speaker 4: I don't have it up yet, but it will be
up within twenty minutes after I'm done here. So if
you catch this on the replay, it will be up,
apologize and be very busy morning for me, Andy, and
I'm dusting myself off. Unfortunately, guys, I didn't want to
neglect this. I wanted to mention it. I'm sure someone's
jump to the chat and brought it up already. Tough
five percent loss last night on Green Bay. I know
Dan Alexander will be messaging me after the game after this.
Speaker 2: Mocking me.
Speaker 4: But look, if you would have told me beforehand that we.
Speaker 2: Great great pick, Buddy Well died, yeah, fade the team
that's now six and all off the by ten and
er against the NFC North, the floor is yours, Brian out.
Speaker 4: Gaining their first seven games. This team's more like two
years ago than last year.
Speaker 2: Dad. Yeah, but they don't have Sewn beside their defensive coordinator.
They have a future Hall of Famer and Vit Fangio
to be fair.
Speaker 4: Oh oh like note of that. Moving forward, I think
this Eagles team is a fraud Handy.
Speaker 2: I don't care what Dan.
Speaker 4: Says, but Green Bay. Look, if you would have told
me that they were we were going to hold Field
Alfhia ten points before the game, I would have said, well,
I don't need to watch this. We're gonna win. But
what a hideous, hideous offensive performance that was, Matt Lafleur.
What what are you doing? What a conservative game plan? Anyway,
we're gonna have a five dollars play, that's what you
asked me about, Andy, I apologize. Five dollars play is
gonna be in college football where we're on a seven
and two run. We did cash our best bet on
Saturday with Nebraska against UCLA. I didn't care that Dylan
Ryol was out. I thought Nebraska being an underdog at
UCLA was really just ridiculous. So we took Nebraska. They
covered wire to wire and it is maction. I know
the MAC well, Andy I am. I don't know if
you know this. I am one of the more famous
Mid American Conference graduates in the United States of America today,
so I know the conference well. As a matter of fact,
five dollars Tuesday last week had I had my alma
mater ou against Miami. So let's see if we can
do it again. Here WT Dot Buzz Slash beatp.
Speaker 1: Brian Power bringing the heat. Thank you so much, Brian,
great work, great breakdowns. As always Brian Power, you can
find him over at wager Talk It is five dollars Tuesday,
try out as many handicappers as you went. Each handy
capper can put up a play for five dollars. I'm
going right back to my bread and butter. I have
an NBA prop that is up for five dollars and
an NHL prop that is up or five dollars. Coming
off of slightly profitable night last night went four and three.
But again we keep telling you, props is where it's at.
That's what I do, It's what I specialize in. Nice
night in the NBA. So we're looking to cash again.
I got to play that I absolutely love, So go
grab that again. Try out as many handicapper as you want.
Bet responsibly. We don't want too much of your bank
roll on these plays. But there's plays in just about
every sport up there.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 1: You got college basketball, you got college football, you got NFL,
you got plays on sports that are going tonight in NBA, NHL,
So grab as many as you want. Try a new handicapper,
try your favorite handy capper. But great time to load
up on some plays. So NBA best bets up for me,
NHL best bet as well. Yanni is not here, so
a couple of people ask, hey, can you do a
little steam report when he's gone. Yes, I do not
see too much going on. I see a little bit
of movement in the Ohio Western Michigan college football game today.
Ohio opened is the favorite. Western Michigan now the favorite.
Akron has moved from five and a half in the opening.
Now there's sevens popping up. So if you want to
bet on Akron, I would go ahead and do that asap.
And in college basketball, I don't see anything in the
NBA except for Toronto's taking money. They're playing Brooklyn, so
it does make sense the brook And team's really bad.
There was a big movement in an over under. Yes,
the under in Memphis New York open two thirty five.
I see two thirty and a halfs popping up, So
that's a four and a half point line movement. And
then big move in college basketball tonight Michigan against wake Forest,
Michigan opened up minus eleven and a half. They have
pounded that thing up to sixteen. So we've been talking
about these line moves, and these line moves, like Brian said,
there's been a couple that have been really really good
sources of information so keep an eye on these line moves.
You can get them over at odds Logic. There's a
free version over on wager talk dot com. Really really
important to keep track of some of these lines. I
will be keeping track of these UFC lines as well.
Let's bring in Carmine. We're gonna break down a couple
NFL games. Then I'll break down Pacers Jazz and we'll
go all around the world. But bringing Karm Karm, thank
you for stepping up on short notice.
Speaker 2: Not a problem.
Speaker 1: Have a movie. Do you have a movie that's not
very good? Ye watching?
Speaker 5: Normally I would say Gotti with John Travolta, but I
gotta tell you I want I was bored once and
during the afternoon and I'm like looking at the movies,
I'm like, oh, John Henry, and I thought it was
the horse racing version of John Henry The Horse until
like about ten minutes in and it's Terry Crews and Ludacris,
which I have nothing to do with horse racing whatsoever.
It was just the worst movie, uh you could watch, So, yeah,
not very good. It's yeah, it's about like a normal
guy who has like a violent past, kind of like uh,
our producer Dan Alexander.
Speaker 1: Right, yes, it sounds like Dan a violent pass. Well,
let's let's break down a couple of these games tonight.
We got the Leafs, Bruins, Ducks and Avs. You know,
the Leaves probably better than just about anybody. So talk
to us about these two teams and what you think
is gonna happen tonight.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, this one's one we look at it is.
It's a rapid revenge spot for the Leafs. These two
just played in Toronto. The Leaves played flat in that one,
the Bruins. The Leaves played soft in that one. The
Bruins winning that game five to three. You know, the
expected goals were exactly eight point zero. And I think
expected goals can give you a look into the future
of how teams are playing, how they played in the past,
and how they might score in the future. It's something
I used last night for the Rangers game in the
over and that finished with nine goals in that one.
But you've got the Leaves here, and the Bruins are
on a great run at home, six straight wins, and
yet they're an underdog at home plus one fifteen because
people are thinking the same thing. The Leafs are going
to win on the road in a revenge spot. But
I think you got to look at this another way.
The Leafs right now, they've only played four road games,
They've lost three of those four games. They're not a
team I want to be playing right now, just because
it just seems they lack the leadership role right now.
What you can look at is the total here, it
sits at six and a half. The Leafs are fourteen
and two this season to the over. If you're not
making money betting the Leafs overs, I don't know what
you're doing. What you're missing four to zero on the
road leaf overs with an average of eight point twenty
five goals scored per game. And then if you wonder
about the Bruins, Bruins are having a pretty good season.
They're overachieving right now, and you can look at their
team total. The Bruins on the season, their team totals
normally around two and a half goals per game. They
are twelve and five, but in even better eight and
two to their team total at home, and as I
mentioned it, those are normally two and a half's for
the Bruins, who are a high scoring team but are
finding the back of the net. It's stol Arts tonight
and swim In. I think both goalies are confirmed, and
swam In was pulled for the very first time in
his Leaf's career against the Bruins. So the leafs averaging
three and a half goals on the road. I think
the over is the player over six and a half.
Speaker 1: Nice. I know the store's prop, but to go over
his saves has been a pretty good one this year.
Might look at might look at that one. I don't know.
I have to research how much Boston gets the shots
to the net. Here Ducks and the Avs, what do
we have? I don't even know what's going on with
the Ducks. I think I haven't watched one second of
a Ducks game. If I have, it's because I was
watching the other team.
Speaker 5: They Yeah, I know, and it's kind of like what
I'm going to be doing tonight, watching the game, but
because I'm watching the other team, and I'll get to
that free playing a second. But this who would have
thought that at this point of the season, you know,
sixteen seventeen games into the season, that the Ducks and
the Avs would be playing for first place in the
Western Conference. Now you might have thought the Abs, yes,
but the Ducks were not on my Bengal card. They're
having a very good season thus far. I think they've
won nine of the last ten ten games. Obviously, the
coaching change to Joel Quinville, and then I think the
offseason moving getting Trevor Zegris out of that organization. I
think he was a negative to them. I think the
guy wasn't very well liked in Anaheim. He just a
little arrogant, and it's a different attitude with his Ducks
team a lot of speed, they're very exciting to play.
But when I look at this game, I always try
and find a market within a game in which I
think is betable because the Avs are a little too
high for me, and I'm not so certain that Anaheim
can go into Colorado and beat them. The Abs are
like seven to one their last eight games, last eight meetings.
But this is a different Ducks team. But if you
look at first periods last season, Colorado was the third
worst team in the NHL minus twenty point three to
three units in the first period. They just started slow.
It was something that they needed to change, and they've
changed it this year. Seven three and six and profitable
to the first period, not the over the first period.
And the Ducks in nine away games they have never
they have They have yet to hold the lead. After
twenty minutes they are two and seven. I'm taking the
Avs here, but I'm laying the puck the half of
puck and taking the plus one twenty so Avs to
get off to a good start here. This is a
team that is fresh off a nine to one win
in Edmonton and then a five to four OT win
in Vancouver in a spot where they could have very
well balanced but didn't.
Speaker 1: It's a great look. Johnny Detroit is joining us, says
Travolta is either a stut or bust. This is a
guy that's done Saturday Night Fever in pulp fiction, and
he also did Gotti and Batti Battlefield Earth.
Speaker 5: Yeah, gaudy. He he just didn't prepare portray Gatty correctly
as far as I'm concerned, Like you know what I mean,
Like he made him look like a gangster. You know,
he's just an Italian immigrant trying to sell his olive oil,
fruit and delly meats, and they put a negative spin
on him, made him look like a gangster. So uh,
I don't know what it is with picking on Italians.
Speaker 1: Somebody clip that and put that out on social media.
That's a great take for me.
Speaker 5: Do not tag John, Do not tag John Travolta in
that one.
Speaker 1: Please no, no, all right, Carbage, five dollars Tuesday, tell
her of what you have up.
Speaker 5: Yeah, a five dollars play as in the NHL. If
you pick up that play, you'll get a coupon code
for I have a five percent NHL play that's going tonight,
back to back five percent NHL winners and coming off
a pretty rocking chair winner on Sunday Night Football with
the Led Chargers, so five percents are running.
Speaker 1: Well, you can.
Speaker 5: Get that over at wager Talk on my page. So
you pick up the fight Dollar play and you will
get a ten dollars off coupon for the five percent
NHL play.
Speaker 1: That's pretty much it for me.
Speaker 5: I'm gearing up for World Cup qualifying on Thursday and
a huge slate of NHL this week as well too.
Speaker 1: Carme and Bianco always jumping in last second to help
us out. Really appreciate you. Thank you so much. Good
luck on that five dollars and yeah, yeah we got
World Cup qualifying coming up guys. So there's money to
be made in that. So all right, Dan, We're gonna
do all around the world and then I'll break down
Pacers jazz. But do you what's your movie? Do you
have a do you have a movie that?
Speaker 2: I mean the entire Adam Sandler catalogs, specifically some of
the some of the newer films like Dude, I'll tell
you what wow you throw on grown Ups? Grown Ups
two is you're trending into unwatchable character but grown Ups
one where it's literally just them riffing, it's it's it's unbeatable.
So seeah, I would argue, I mean, none of these
movies are Oscar winning Gold, but the entire Adam Sandler catalog. Man,
throw those movies on, turn your brain off and just
enjoy and just enjoy the other ones, the other ones
where you saw like Pineapple Express, like those stoner comedies
are amazing. I don't know if you ever saw This
is the End where all of them are hanging out
at James Franco's house and then the end of the
world happens so bad that it's good. I've never laughed
so hard in a theater and then when I saw
this is the End, super Bad is just an incredible film.
Super Bad I don't think qualifies here. This the end
is great.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the End is great because it's terrible
and you just you're laughing and you're like, why am
I laughing?
Speaker 2: This is And that's why I like grown ups too,
because when it's just like seems like there's no script
and people are riffing. I love that stuff and like
you can tell that people actually are enjoying what they're doing.
So yeah, bad movies that are good and sometimes are
better than good movies that are that are pretentious, like
like you know, like Oscar Gold. Sometimes I would throw
on a bad movie that's just good.
Speaker 1: Sharknado is a good one. So Dan, here's why, here's
why I came up with this, tam. Something that's bad
that I love watching is your Eagles. I love watching
I love watching your Eagles.
Speaker 2: That's fun. It's just like, well I didn't know, I
didn't know. That's where it was well done.
Speaker 1: They are the Philadelphia Tango and cash is because I
just I can't, I cannot take my eyes off of
your team, and it's like, how are they winning Jalen
Hurts can't hit an out route in his life depended
on it. Sequel, Barclay is running at half speed, and
yet here they are. They're running the most bizarre strategy.
On fourth down at the end, the Packers haven't moved
the ball at all. All you have to do is
deep in their throwing long bombs. I am here for it.
I cannot take my eyes off of your team.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, having that offensive game plan with two
weeks repair is pretty crazy. I mean testament to you know,
the Packers defense. But it had way more to do
with decision making, I think than the Packers defense. Jalen
Hurts with a very bad game last night, you know,
and on that final play, Andy, was it the wrong
decision a thousand percent. I mean, you punt that ball
with how your defense is playing. However, if Hurts throws
that ball a little bit to the outside, or if
Aj Brown makes any effort at getting that ball, I mean,
Aj Brown, there's a dude who's checked out. Jesus it is.
It is AJ Brown who does not want to be there.
It's abundantly clear. But if there was a better throw
or a little bit of effort, everyone's talking about Oh
my god, what a gamer. He's much like Dan Campbell.
He believes in his players. Like in the Post and
Craft press conferences, aj Brown said, I wasn't surprised the
play call. That's what we do. We're aggressive. DeVante Smith
said the same thing. He said, that's our identity as
a team. Our coach believes in us. Offensively, if they
completed the pass, you know, people aren't as as loud.
But when when it doesn't get completed, it's the same
thing that happened to Dan Campbell a couple of years
ago when they fail on fourth down. What an idiot?
What an asshole? But if they if they get the
fourth down, it's brilliant. So wrong decision there, Andy. But
the real thing for me with that team that makes
them Tango.
Speaker 4: And Cash cash is was.
Speaker 2: There a good one in Tango and a bad one
in Cash? I've never seen it because the Tango and
Cash is the fact that you have Vic Fangio as
a defensive coordinator and Kevin Potulo is an offensive coordinator.
Because there's one that's going to the Hall of Fame,
and there's one that should be calling plays for the
local high school. And uh, that's that's abundantly clear. It's
always big fansy a bail on out this team.
Speaker 1: I mean Tango and cash. They have the like they
set these they set the two cops up, which is
ridiculous in itself, and then they just like get through
a complete murder trial like a week like this. It
would have taken five years.
Speaker 2: Here's one thing, bad guy was awful. Here's one thing
that I will say. And and I know we have
some breakdowns coming up. We got all around the world,
but like, Eagles are so bad but winning. Here's what
I Here's what I don't understand is are they a
frustrating team? Sure, but I don't know how you can
say that they're bad. I mean they just held a
team at home who scored it will against multiple other
teams to seven points at home. Like, we get so
caught up in everything being fantasy and I need my
player prop overs to hit and I need this. There's
a defense on the field as well, and the Philadelphia
Eagles defense is arguably one of the best, if not
the best, outside of Seattle in the entire league right now.
So there are two sides to the ball. The off
offense is really poor and very inconsistent and seems very disjointed. However,
there's also another unit who comes out and constantly shuts
down teams week after week after week. Real nice litmus
tests coming up against the line. Sharps have already bet
the Eagles back up to two and a half. So
the sharp betters don't think that the Eagles are a
bad team that just keep winning. I don't think they
would betting on them.
Speaker 1: It's a good point. It's a good point. Last question
before we do the breakdowns. Are you concerned that Shipley
looks better than Saquon bark right now? I mean I
was concerning.
Speaker 2: I was worried about it heading into the year. Is
it's just older running back gets all those carries, all
that mileage. I think again, it has a lot more
to do with the injuries upfront for the Philadelphia Eagles,
coupled with the play calling like last night, Lane Johnson
kept going in and out of the game, in and
out of the game, and what do you do. You
keep running inside zone concepts, which is just it's just
not what you're supposed to do, especially you have a
backup center in Landon Dickerson. Isn't one hundred percent So
the fact that they're so fixed on being a power
running team when they're not built right now with the
offensive line injuries to be a power running team. That's
what's more frustrating to me than Saquon Barkley looking like
he's entering the twilight of his career. But Andy on
that forty one yards that he had, he's still got
some juice. You just have to get him into space.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he just can't. He's got like one or two
a game instead of yeah, four or five exactly exactly.
Speaker 2: And again, I think that has to do with the
injuries upfront and the fact that you have a revolving
door of offensive lineman. Last year they stayed healthy, they
had great continuity. This year, it's not really They're coupled
with the fact they don't have Kellen Moore scheming up plays.
They have Kevin Padumas making up the place.
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, the Philadelphia Tango and Cashes. It's actually
a good name. It's pretty good, Philadelphia Tango and Cashes.
Let's get to work on that graphic and logo. So
let's do all around the world. Let's break down some
free plays and shout out to our shout out to
our good friend Titans. Titans in the chat, I lost
a bet to him. I had the bucks to cover
against the Patriots. I was wrong. So Titans, you get
a free three day pass and getting it starting on Friday.
We will get you hooked up. So put your wager
Talk user name in the comments so I can get
that set up. We got a big weekend. We got
a five percent UFC play, We had our NFL props, NBA, NHL,
So you picked a good week to win a bet
against me. All right, let's do these. We got some
props here and we got a spread. Look at Isaiah
Joe over eleven and a half points against the Warriors.
He went under this total in his last game, but
he was really really good before that. He's shooting fifty
four percent from the field and over fifty percent from threes.
Last game was his down game. I believe he was
two of ten, three of ten from the field. But
we're gonna come right back to him to play well.
Dort is still out, so we'll keep playing Isaiah Joe
over his points, Blue Jackets and cracking Kent Johnson. This
guy's been great to us. Over one and a half
shots on goal This guy's gone over in seven out
of nine road games. He's had four shot attempts three
games in a row, and he's on the first power
play line. Absolutely love him to keep going over one
and a half shots on goal for us. This is
kind of one of those rinse and repeat plays. Even
if it loses one should go right back to it
and then Celtics at seventy six ers. This one comes
from the wager Talk Free picks page Celtics plus three
on the road. Boston's gotten better last three games, gone
from sixteenth to seventh offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Philly has dropped.
They've gone from sixth to fourteenth. So Kevin Dolan likes
the Celtics plus three tonight. That is all around the world. Now,
let's do a quick little breakdown of the Pacers and
the Jazz. Indiana Pacers faced the Utah Jazz Night. Pacers
are actually favored here by minus two and a half
and we got an over under that. I'm not too
concerned because I like my Pacers tonight even though they're
one to nine. Here's the deal, They're getting healthy. This
team that they had been playing with was a skeleton team.
We talked about this that all the players that have
been out for the Pacers literally would be a pretty
good NBA team. You have Halliburton, you have DJ McConnell,
you have Opie Top and Nee Smith was out. But
here's the thing. They're getting Nie Smith back, They're getting
Siakam back. McConnell has been upgraded from out to questionable,
so we may see him. And this is a team,
a front office, a coaching staff, and a group of
players that just don't want to tank. They have openly
talked about this. They're not coming in this to try
and get a number one pick.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: They're off to a good start with their record, but
this is a team that's gonna fight. And they're playing
a Utah Jazz team that's one and seven their last
eight games. They've dipped to twenty fourth in defensive efficiency,
twenty fifth in offensive efficiency, and it's yet another rebuild
again for Utah. Here we go again. So I'm gonna
take the Pacers and this points minus two and a half.
I think the Pacers don't be surprised if they I
have a lot of success against some of these other
bad teams. They're not as bad when they're healthy, and
this Jazz team just is not very good. A couple
of props here. Nurkic under under half a made three.
This is a stat that's gonna blow your mind. He's
attempting just over two to three point attempts per game.
He's shooting twelve percent from threes. Like, why are they?
Why do they keep letting him shoot? The man's shooting
twelve percent of his three pointers and he's taking multiple
per game. So take him to not have a three pointer.
Nie Smith over four and a half rebounds, you're getting
this a plus one money. He only had one last
game against Denver. Dev's a great rebounding team, and he
played lower minutes in that one. He's back fresh from injury.
Before that game he had seven, seven and six. UTAH
is twenty fourth allowing rebounds to small forwards. So we're
looking at Nurkic to not make a three, and we're
looking at Nie Smith over four and a half rebounds
as your props for this game. Once again, five dollars
play is up in the NBA. We're off to an
absolutely fantastic start in NBA and we are up fourteen
units in props just in the month of November. You
can get that over at wager talk dot com or
use a shortcut wt dot buzz slash al number one
in NBA props over the last two seasons. We also
have an NHL prop that is up for five dollars
as well. Props is where I make my money. It's
how we build a bankroll. We've been talking us for
a long time, so partner up. Let's cash on five
dollars Tuesday. Great job everyone in the chat. This list
of movies is just fantastic. I know what I'm doing
for the rest of the day. I got to pick
a couple of these and have these on in the background.
So great job of the chat. Leave a comment in
the comment section if we missed one of these movies,
and I might get to work on this logo. So
all right, we're gonna be back tomorrow, same time, noon Eastern.
Make sure you hit the like button. A great show today.
If we didn't earn a like today, come on, what
are we doing here? All right, we'll see everyone tomorrow.
Good look on your five dollars Tuesday bets. Take care