1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:07,759 Speaker 1: Which is a great segue. Optimists is I think going 2 00:00:07,839 --> 00:00:13,480 to be the greatest product in the history of humanity. 3 00:00:14,439 --> 00:00:17,679 What's the progress like and how much of your how 4 00:00:17,679 --> 00:00:20,760 many of your cycles are going specifically to Optimists. What's 5 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:24,000 the timeline? I think you're on version three maybe four? 6 00:00:24,359 --> 00:00:25,120 Tell us everything? 7 00:00:27,559 --> 00:00:32,719 Speaker 2: Well, yeah, everything will gonna take a long time. We've 8 00:00:32,759 --> 00:00:33,159 got time. 9 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:44,359 Speaker 3: We're finalizing the design of Optimist version three, and. 10 00:00:46,799 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 2: That really is going to be a very re multiple robot. 11 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,759 Speaker 3: It will have the essentially the manual dexterity of a 12 00:00:55,840 --> 00:01:01,399 human It's meaning a very complex hand the an AI 13 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:08,239 mind that can navigate and comprehend reality, and we made 14 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,359 in very high volume. Those are the three things that 15 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:15,480 I'm missing, Like if you see any other robotics company, 16 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:19,079 they're missing those three things. Those are the three really 17 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,079 hard things. 18 00:01:23,239 --> 00:01:27,239 Speaker 2: And I spend Actually, at this point. 19 00:01:32,519 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 3: It might be more of my mental cycles than anything 20 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:40,280 anything else, any other single thing on Optimis. That's that 21 00:01:40,439 --> 00:01:46,079 that's solving pool real world AI all of the electro 22 00:01:46,239 --> 00:01:51,640 mechanical issues of Optimists, the supply chain and production challenges 23 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:54,159 of it, because there is no supply chain that exists 24 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:56,439 for humanoid robots, so it has to be we have 25 00:01:56,480 --> 00:02:00,120 to recreate it from scratch, and which requires doing a 26 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:06,560 lot of vertical integration. None of the actuators in Optimism 27 00:02:06,719 --> 00:02:13,120 are available from an existing supply chain. But I think 28 00:02:13,159 --> 00:02:16,520 it is accurate to say that if successful, Optimus will 29 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:20,759 be the biggest product ever and the. 30 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: Cost of it at scale twenty thirty forty thousand dollars 31 00:02:24,319 --> 00:02:27,800 a robot. What do you think the first wave of 32 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:32,360 them will cost and when will we be able to 33 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:34,319 buy one to work on the ranch? 34 00:02:37,479 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 3: I think that the Martinmall cost of production once you 35 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:46,400 hit a million units per year is probably around the 36 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:51,800 twenty thousand dollars range. It so of depends on how 37 00:02:51,879 --> 00:02:56,439 much you spend on the AI chip in the robot 38 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,599 to achieve a lot of efficiencies in the actuators. There 39 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:09,919 are twenty six actuators per arm, like twenty six like motors, 40 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:11,960 gearboxes and par electronics. 41 00:03:16,719 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 2: So, but the AI chip will be pretty expensive. 42 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,199 Speaker 3: But like that, that might be like five, five or 43 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,319 six thousand dollars of the of the bill of materials, 44 00:03:26,319 --> 00:03:27,080 maybe more. 45 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:33,879 Speaker 2: And so but I think at volume. 46 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 3: At a million units a year, the production cost is 47 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:40,360 probably in the order of twenty thousand dollars maybe twenty 48 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:44,120 five something like that, and it price will be as 49 00:03:44,159 --> 00:03:45,000 a function of demand. 50 00:03:45,319 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 4: Lelon, can you maybe explain to everybody why the hand 51 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:53,159 is so important to get right and why you know, 52 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,439 the actuator design is so unique, and you know why 53 00:03:56,479 --> 00:03:59,120 it's so difficult, why nobody makes it, and why you 54 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:01,039 have to start there almost to build the rest of 55 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:02,840 the robot properly. 56 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 3: It turns out human hands are incredibly that they've evolved 57 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:13,120 to to be this incredibly sophisticated machine like that. Your 58 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:19,079 hand is no actually a remarkable thing. It's look look 59 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:23,480 closely at your hands and and think of all the 60 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,439 things you can do with your hands, which is a lot. 61 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 2: Just thinking about something. Your hands a very versatile instrument. 62 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, you can give them a high five. 63 00:04:36,639 --> 00:04:37,399 Speaker 2: Very versatile. 64 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,639 Speaker 3: You know, you can swing a baseball bat, you can 65 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:47,439 thread needles, you put thread in a needle, you can 66 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:52,600 play the cannon with violin. You know, you could disassemble 67 00:04:52,680 --> 00:05:00,040 or assemble a car. The hands are incredibly versatile instruments. 68 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:04,120 And most of the muscles of the hand are actually 69 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:07,839 in the forearm, so your hand is kind of like 70 00:05:07,879 --> 00:05:10,360 a like a like it's like a puppet like it's 71 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:11,040 mostly a puppet. 72 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:11,399 Speaker 2: The muscle. 73 00:05:11,399 --> 00:05:13,519 Speaker 3: The muscles are coming from the forearm and they're pulling 74 00:05:13,519 --> 00:05:18,439 the tendons, which are you know, also human tendon desizing 75 00:05:18,879 --> 00:05:23,360 or human human tendent evolution is incredibly good. 76 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:29,439 Speaker 2: So you've got this web of tendons. You've got I 77 00:05:29,439 --> 00:05:30,399 think I think that. 78 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:32,879 Speaker 3: Human hand is something like depending on how you counted, 79 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,639 twenty seven or twenty eight degrees of freedom per you know, 80 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:42,639 in the hand, it's uh, it's amazing. So in order 81 00:05:42,639 --> 00:05:47,839 to create a robot that can be a generalized, uh, humanoid, 82 00:05:47,959 --> 00:05:52,000 you must solve the hand hands problem. 83 00:05:51,199 --> 00:05:55,879 Speaker 2: And we had just got hands, knees, hands, and so is. 84 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 4: It like when you were first building Tesla where the 85 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:00,920 supply chain doesn't exist, So now you have to go 86 00:06:00,959 --> 00:06:03,240 out and find folks to work with and you know, 87 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,759 build all this vertical integration, get support. 88 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 2: Is it? 89 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 4: Is it literally like it's just nowhere to be found 90 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:10,519 and you're going to have to build all of this 91 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:11,079 stuff up. 92 00:06:12,079 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 3: Yes, we could not actually buy the actuators for any 93 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,439 amount of money. They simply didn't exist, even though there 94 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,639 are ten twenty thousand electric. 95 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 2: Motors out there. 96 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 3: Versus sizes and shapes, we've had to design every electric motor, 97 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:31,759 gearbox and the controlling electronics from scratch, basically from physics 98 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:32,759 post principles. 99 00:06:33,439 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: The good news is you've got a lot of experience 100 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,839 with factories over the last couple of decades. So how 101 00:06:39,959 --> 00:06:46,319 challenging is this versus cyber truck, Model YDEL, gigafactory, you 102 00:06:46,319 --> 00:06:50,279 know the Yeah, the Faberge egg known as the Model X. 103 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, right, it's harder than any any of those things. 104 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: Okay, yeah much hart significantly am Yes. 105 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:06,839 Speaker 2: Well, there not hot starships harder. 106 00:07:08,439 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 1: Okay, So somewhere between a Model X and a starship. 107 00:07:13,319 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 5: Is it is the what's harder the hardware or the software? 108 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:23,959 Speaker 3: Right now we're struggling with the the final design of 109 00:07:23,959 --> 00:07:27,120 the hardware. Like I said, it's really primarily the hand, 110 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,439 not to just dismiss the rest of the robot. Rest 111 00:07:30,439 --> 00:07:34,160 of it's also important, but that the hands are hands 112 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:37,079 and inclusive of the forum, are a majority of the 113 00:07:37,079 --> 00:07:38,959 engineering difficulty of the entire robot. 114 00:07:39,519 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 6: And then let's let's assume you get past the hardware challenges. 115 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,920 How much do you sort of get for free based 116 00:07:44,959 --> 00:07:47,439 on all the progress that's happening with l ll ms. 117 00:07:47,959 --> 00:07:51,160 Will you know we'll consumers just be able to interact 118 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:53,120 with this. Talk to the robot, ask you to do 119 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:54,360 things and we'll understand. 120 00:07:54,759 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 2: And so yeah, yeah, no problem. 121 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: You're spending a lot of time with Annie. I know 122 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,639 noticed online not that long. 123 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 3: Maybe I went a little over the top promoting rock Imagine. 124 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:13,399 Speaker 1: Well, but in all seriousness, those characters and these robots 125 00:08:13,399 --> 00:08:16,199 that seems to be you know, like maybe. 126 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 2: They you could get the embodiments of ani as. 127 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 7: Yeah, why the human form factor? Elon, you could make 128 00:08:22,199 --> 00:08:25,439 something that's maybe better than a human, or maybe simpler 129 00:08:25,439 --> 00:08:27,680 than a human to do specific tasks, and maybe better 130 00:08:27,759 --> 00:08:29,600 than a human to do more things than a human 131 00:08:29,639 --> 00:08:32,039 can do. How do you decide to make it just 132 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:32,720 like a human? 133 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 3: Well, if you wanted to do all the things that 134 00:08:36,639 --> 00:08:38,200 a human can do, it turns out you need a 135 00:08:38,279 --> 00:08:43,120 humanoid robot. So if you wanted to do a subset, 136 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:51,559 that's much easier. But it turns out humans evolved to 137 00:08:52,039 --> 00:08:59,960 the shape and capabilities that we have for good reasons. 138 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:04,919 That actually is that there is like this value to 139 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:09,799 having quiet you four fingers in the thumb, and even 140 00:09:09,799 --> 00:09:11,840 the pinky actually is quite useful. 141 00:09:13,519 --> 00:09:15,879 Speaker 2: Tows are much more question walk but. 142 00:09:19,399 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 5: Well also humans. 143 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,399 Speaker 6: Humans have designed the world as well, so we designed 144 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:26,440 it for us. Exactly if we could make a humanoid robot, 145 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,799 it'll be immediately backwards compatible with what we've. 146 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 5: Built the world for. 147 00:09:30,519 --> 00:09:34,759 Speaker 4: There's another there's another part of the robot. So there's 148 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,559 the l l MS, there's the actuation in the hands, 149 00:09:38,399 --> 00:09:43,080 but also there's the the silicon that runs it, and 150 00:09:43,799 --> 00:09:48,000 there was you know dojo. I think you you posted 151 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,720 on x A I five and AI six and it 152 00:09:50,799 --> 00:09:54,360 just seemed like you were incredibly excited about the direction 153 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,320 in which the silicon layer was also going. Can you 154 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,879 tell us about that and what that is? And what what? 155 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 5: What are we? 156 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 4: What are we building here? What is being built? Is 157 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,679 it a complement to everything that exists in the world, 158 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:08,399 Is it a potential long term competitor? 159 00:10:08,399 --> 00:10:08,879 Speaker 3: What is it? 160 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, So. 161 00:10:15,639 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 3: At Tesla, we basically had two different chip programs, one 162 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,720 Dojo and one UH dojo on the training side, and 163 00:10:23,759 --> 00:10:28,320 then over call you know AI or it's just our 164 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:33,440 inference jib that the AI Force is currently shipping in 165 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:37,399 all vehicles and we're finalizing finalizing the design of AI five, 166 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:42,240 which will be an immense jump from AI four by 167 00:10:42,279 --> 00:10:45,879 some metrics, the improvement in AI five will be forty 168 00:10:46,039 --> 00:10:47,639 times better. 169 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 2: Than AI four times. And and this is because we 170 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,480 work so closely at a. 171 00:10:57,039 --> 00:11:00,639 Speaker 3: Very fine grade level on the AI software and the 172 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:05,120 AI hardware, so we know exactly where the limiting factors are, 173 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,840 and so effectively the AI hardware and software teams are 174 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:10,799 co designing the chip. 175 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,639 Speaker 4: So forty x improvement in the silicon I think then, 176 00:11:15,799 --> 00:11:18,759 as it as everybody here in the audience experience is 177 00:11:18,799 --> 00:11:21,720 it is that just an almost like an order of 178 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:25,320 magnitude increase in the quality of FSD and the safety 179 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:27,759 that you experience as a Tesla driver, and then the 180 00:11:27,879 --> 00:11:30,120 quality of the robot. Like word, is it all manifest 181 00:11:30,159 --> 00:11:34,360 when you, you know, bring it up and actually get 182 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:35,080 it into production. 183 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's be precise. 184 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,960 Speaker 3: The forty x is on if you said, like compared 185 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:44,679 to the worst limitation on AI four, which is running 186 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:49,039 the softmax operation. Yeah, we currently have to run softmax 187 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:53,200 in around forty steps in emulation mode, whereas that will 188 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:54,279 just be done in a. 189 00:11:54,279 --> 00:11:56,519 Speaker 2: Few steps natively in AI five. 190 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 3: A five trip will also be easily handled mixed precision models, 191 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,720 so you don't have it'll dynamically handle mixed there's a 192 00:12:07,759 --> 00:12:10,720 bunch of sort of technical stuff that AIF I will 193 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:15,720 do a lot better in terms of nominal sort of 194 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:21,639 raw compute. It's it's eight times more compute, about nine 195 00:12:21,639 --> 00:12:27,720 times more memory, roughly five times more memory boundwidth. So 196 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,519 but because we're addressing some core limitations in AI four, 197 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:35,279 you multiply that by that that eight x compute improvement 198 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:40,279 via another five x improvement because of optimization at at 199 00:12:40,279 --> 00:12:42,799 a very fine grain silicon level of things that are 200 00:12:42,799 --> 00:12:43,919 currently suboptimal in. 201 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,279 Speaker 2: AI four, that's where you get the forty x improvement 202 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:48,440 you had. Keep going. 203 00:12:49,519 --> 00:12:53,639 Speaker 3: So now that said, I am confident that the current 204 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:57,080 chips AI A four chips that are in the cars 205 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:02,480 will achieve self dry having safety that is at least 206 00:13:02,639 --> 00:13:05,960 two to three times that of human and and maybe 207 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:10,159 even ten x. And the software that will be released 208 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,799 for that is coming out over the next few months, 209 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:18,639 so version fourteen will be the biggest upgrade until the 210 00:13:18,639 --> 00:13:24,879 software stance version twelve. We are increasing the parameter account 211 00:13:24,919 --> 00:13:30,559 by an order magnitude. The there's there's there's a lot 212 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:38,759 of reinforcement learning that's been used. As we were there, 213 00:13:38,919 --> 00:13:41,120 There's like you can think of AI sort of as 214 00:13:41,159 --> 00:13:45,039 a way of compressing reality, and some of those compression 215 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:51,039 steps we were too lossy, and we address the lostiness 216 00:13:51,039 --> 00:13:55,080 in the compression steps. So these are all software updates 217 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,399 that will that will go out. So just over there updates. 218 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,519 Speaker 2: Your car has got to feel like it is sentient 219 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:01,879 by the end of the year. 220 00:14:03,519 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 1: It feels that way already, to be honest, I saw 221 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,480 in the trades that you spent about seventeen billion dollars 222 00:14:10,519 --> 00:14:16,240 on some spectrum and that. Yeah, so some couch change 223 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:22,679 to enable your satellites and the Starlink network to connect 224 00:14:22,679 --> 00:14:25,720 directly with phones. What will that look like in a 225 00:14:25,799 --> 00:14:28,360 year or two? Are we going to drop our Verizon 226 00:14:28,399 --> 00:14:35,279 account and just expand our Starlink account. We're kind of 227 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,000 hoping because Verizon kind of sucks. 228 00:14:38,799 --> 00:14:40,919 Speaker 5: How many of you on a Starlink phone? 229 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 1: Who wants a Starlink phone? Is it technically possible? 230 00:14:46,559 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 7: I know you can't see it, but it's everyone. 231 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:52,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely A right cool. So this is a kind 232 00:14:52,759 --> 00:14:53,879 of a long term thing. 233 00:14:55,919 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 3: It will allow SpaceX to deliver high band with connectivity 234 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:10,440 directly from the satellites to the phones, but there are 235 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:12,960 hardware changes that need to happen in the phone so 236 00:15:13,559 --> 00:15:14,120 since these. 237 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,279 Speaker 2: Frequencies aren't supported in current. 238 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:21,559 Speaker 3: Phones, the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies, 239 00:15:22,519 --> 00:15:23,559 and that probably. 240 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 2: Is a two year time frame. 241 00:15:24,279 --> 00:15:27,879 Speaker 3: So the phones that are able to use the spectrum 242 00:15:27,919 --> 00:15:30,320 that was acquired probably start shipping. 243 00:15:30,039 --> 00:15:31,039 Speaker 2: In around two years. 244 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 3: And then we also need to build the satellites that 245 00:15:36,279 --> 00:15:39,759 are going to communicate on those frequencies. So in parallel 246 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:43,440 building the satellites and working with the handset makers to 247 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,720 add these frequencies to the phones, and then the satellites 248 00:15:47,799 --> 00:15:51,039 and the phones will then handshake very well to achieve 249 00:15:51,159 --> 00:15:53,480 high bound with connectivity. But the net effect is that 250 00:15:53,519 --> 00:15:57,519 you should be able to watch videos anywhere on your phone. 251 00:15:58,919 --> 00:16:00,759 Speaker 2: Wow, and it's. 252 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: Going to be crazy. 253 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 5: What do these do? These frequencies? 254 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,879 Speaker 6: Would they work indoors inside buildings, you know, like like 255 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:07,840 that phone currently does? 256 00:16:07,919 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 5: Okay, and so. 257 00:16:10,159 --> 00:16:12,039 Speaker 3: Will you be able to have basically like if you 258 00:16:12,159 --> 00:16:13,519 if you if you're in a building with it with 259 00:16:13,559 --> 00:16:15,600 it like a thick metal roof, then no, but. 260 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 5: The same the same types of normal normal homes. 261 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 4: Yes, yes, Elon, is your vision for this that instead 262 00:16:23,039 --> 00:16:25,039 of you know, having an AT and T account or 263 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,960 and then roaming when you're in the UK or you're 264 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,600 in India. It's just we could have one direct deal 265 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:34,399 with starlink. It works all over the world eventually, not today, 266 00:16:34,559 --> 00:16:37,320 but at some point. Is that the end goal that 267 00:16:37,399 --> 00:16:40,759 basically we don't need a regional carrier, we have a 268 00:16:40,799 --> 00:16:42,159 global carrier and that would be you. 269 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 2: Uh, that would be one of the options. 270 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 3: To be clear, We're not going to put the other 271 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,440 carriers out of business. They're still going to be around 272 00:16:48,519 --> 00:16:53,159 because they own a lot of spectrum. So, uh, there's 273 00:16:52,399 --> 00:16:55,399 a but. But yes, you'll you should be able to 274 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,000 have a Starlink like you have like you have an 275 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,559 A T and T or the mobile Bride and whatever 276 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:03,559 you should you could have a you know account with 277 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:09,279 stallink that works with your you know, starlink h antenna 278 00:17:09,599 --> 00:17:12,079 at home, uh, for your Wi Fi as well as 279 00:17:12,079 --> 00:17:16,079 on your phone. And yeah, it would be a comprehensive 280 00:17:16,079 --> 00:17:20,200 solution for high bandwidth at home and for high end 281 00:17:20,279 --> 00:17:21,039 with Director sell. 282 00:17:21,319 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 7: Could you buy some carriers to have more spectrum, maybe 283 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:27,480 five Hoverrizon. 284 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,640 Speaker 2: Not out of the question. I suppose that may happen. 285 00:17:30,599 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 1: Let's talk about let's talk about Starship. You just had 286 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:41,319 a really what appeared to be a phenomenal launch. How 287 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:45,519 close is it to you know, being predictable and ready 288 00:17:45,519 --> 00:17:47,160 to go in a commercial setting. 289 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 2: I think we'll recover the ship next year. 290 00:17:54,559 --> 00:18:00,119 Speaker 3: We've got one more launch of the Stallink version two to. 291 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:06,519 Speaker 2: Stack, but there's only one one booster and ship left 292 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,039 that's in the version two design. 293 00:18:10,839 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 3: And then thereafter it's it's version three, which is a 294 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:17,559 gigantic upgrade because that's got Raptor three and pretty much. 295 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 2: Everything changes on the rocket with version three. 296 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 3: So version three you might have some initial tieving pains 297 00:18:25,599 --> 00:18:31,400 because it's such a radical redesign, but it's it's capable 298 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,240 of over one hundred tons to of it fully reusable, 299 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,039 and I think it's I think I think. 300 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 2: Unless we have unless we have some very. 301 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 3: Major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching 302 00:18:48,039 --> 00:18:51,559 both the booster and the ship and being able to 303 00:18:51,599 --> 00:18:55,079 deliver over one hundred tons to a useful orbit. 304 00:18:55,839 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: What is the best rocket in the world do now 305 00:18:58,839 --> 00:19:01,440 in terms of page to space. 306 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:07,759 Speaker 3: Well, in terms of uh sort of commercial rockets, this 307 00:19:07,759 --> 00:19:14,720 this Falcon Heavy, which we'll do in with with with 308 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:20,000 side booster reuse, we'll do about forty tons. 309 00:19:20,519 --> 00:19:21,799 Speaker 1: So this is five times bigger. 310 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, well two and a half times bigger. But but 311 00:19:26,599 --> 00:19:30,400 starsha would be full reuse, full reusability, got it? Okay, Hey, 312 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:31,920 everything comes back. 313 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 7: Elan after after the explosion that happened with the failed launch, 314 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:39,839 there was a lot. 315 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,799 Speaker 2: Of sorry which which failed, the more. 316 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 7: Recent one, the more recent with the starship hat with 317 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,799 the big boom, yeah, and the big boom, the and 318 00:19:48,799 --> 00:19:50,960 and there's a lot of There was a lot of 319 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,079 proclamations that there's going to be environmental and f a 320 00:19:54,079 --> 00:19:57,240 A and all these other sorts. The recovery back to 321 00:19:57,839 --> 00:20:01,960 the launch pad again was incredible fast. How did you 322 00:20:02,079 --> 00:20:05,160 get back so fast? Not just technically and work wise, 323 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,680 but just like regulatory clearance wise, because they said there 324 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,039 were gonna be all these questions and reviews and so on. 325 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:12,799 How did you guys manage that? 326 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:16,079 Speaker 3: Well, there were a lot of questions and reviews. We 327 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,160 got through them all. And credit to the SpaceX team. 328 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:24,920 They worked incredibly hard and they got the next sugar 329 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:29,880 and booster tested and on the pad and plan and used. 330 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 2: Credit to the SpaceX team. 331 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 3: Very proud of them for doing doing such a job, 332 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:39,720 a great job recovering, I mean, creating a fully reusable 333 00:20:39,759 --> 00:20:43,160 OpenAL rocket is one of the hottest engineering problems ever. 334 00:20:44,599 --> 00:20:49,920 Certainly you know, a candidate for most difficult interineering project ever. 335 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 2: You know, it's on the podium at least. 336 00:20:54,759 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 3: So it's a that that's been the goal of SpaceX 337 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:01,759 from the beginning, from two thousand too, and here we. 338 00:21:01,799 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 2: Are twenty three years later. 339 00:21:03,039 --> 00:21:09,519 Speaker 3: So it's a long journey and with a super talent 340 00:21:09,559 --> 00:21:11,799 like by far, I think the most talented group of 341 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:18,759 rocket engineers that's ever been assembled, and we're finally next year, 342 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:20,200 I think. 343 00:21:20,039 --> 00:21:22,400 Speaker 2: We'll be able to achieve full reusability. 344 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 4: On what are the big technical blockers that you're focused 345 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,039 on there between now and that full reusability? Are there 346 00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:35,119 some showstoppers where you're just kind of literally just obsessing 347 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,519 over trying to figure out still or is it more 348 00:21:38,039 --> 00:21:40,880 about getting through a side of a laundry list of 349 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,559 your learnings and just integrating it into the next launch. 350 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 3: Well, well, for full reusability of the ship, there's still 351 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:55,960 a lot of work that. 352 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 2: Remains on the heat shield. So no one's ever made. 353 00:21:58,799 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 3: A fully reusable opal heat shield like the Shuttle heat 354 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,920 shield had to go through nine months of repair after 355 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:09,839 every flight, right, so no one has ever made a. 356 00:22:09,759 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 2: Fully reusable overal heat shield and is. 357 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 4: That a material science problem or is that an engineering 358 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:15,920 problem or both? 359 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's a material science engineering problem. So 360 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:25,720 it's but we really are uh looking at the fundamental. 361 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 2: Physics here again physics post. 362 00:22:28,079 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 3: Principles and trying to figure out how do we make 363 00:22:30,759 --> 00:22:38,440 something that is you know, it can withstand the heat, 364 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,440 is very light, doesn't transmit. 365 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 2: The heat to the primary primary structure. 366 00:22:47,799 --> 00:22:48,279 Speaker 1: And. 367 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 2: Integrity is holdile, stay on and they don't crack. Yeah. Uh. 368 00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 3: And then as you ascend, if you hit some rain, 369 00:23:00,759 --> 00:23:04,200 the tiles don't dissolve and rain. There's there's a lot 370 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,960 of different issues, and then you really need to know 371 00:23:08,039 --> 00:23:12,440 that these tiles are working. You can't you know, go 372 00:23:12,559 --> 00:23:15,119 through this laborious inspection. So it really needs to be 373 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,400 where you know, these these tens of thousands of tiles 374 00:23:19,519 --> 00:23:25,440 all work and don't need to be repurbished or checked 375 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:26,039 one by one. 376 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:27,519 Speaker 2: That was the case with the shuttle. 377 00:23:28,319 --> 00:23:31,880 Speaker 4: Can we maybe switch now, think, I mean, who who 378 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,000 else were you talked about Tesla? Then you go to 379 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,680 SpaceX Yeah, now I'd like to ask you some questions 380 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:42,039 about rock and x AI. You want to just give 381 00:23:42,079 --> 00:23:43,759 us an update. I think you you kind of talked 382 00:23:43,759 --> 00:23:45,960 about where the next gen model is and you said 383 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,039 something incredible. I still don't think people really understand it, 384 00:23:49,079 --> 00:23:50,920 which is, you know, there's going to be a next 385 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,720 training run where you expect, you know, not to start 386 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:59,160 from the you know, common web and common crawl, where 387 00:23:59,319 --> 00:24:03,359 you expected an enormous amount of synthetic data. Just tell 388 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,559 us about how the evolution of GROC is going and 389 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,079 this innovation and why it's so important. 390 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, So we're running a lot of using a lot 391 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:20,920 of inference, compute and reasoning to look at all of 392 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,920 the source data, which is really the corpus of human knowledge, 393 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,799 and then thinking about each piece of information and then 394 00:24:30,079 --> 00:24:37,079 adding what adding what's missing, and correcting, correcting mistakes and 395 00:24:37,599 --> 00:24:41,160 removing falsehoods from the from that training data. So it's 396 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,319 it's if you take data Wikipedia as an example, but 397 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:50,759 this really applies to the books, PDFs, the websites, every 398 00:24:50,759 --> 00:24:59,480 form of information. The GROC is using heavy amounts of 399 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,920 inference can put to say to look at, as an example, 400 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:08,000 a Wikipedia page and say, what is true postially true 401 00:25:08,319 --> 00:25:09,200 or false. 402 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,759 Speaker 2: Or missing in this page? 403 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 3: Now rewrite the page to correct the remove the false foods, 404 00:25:21,599 --> 00:25:24,720 correct the half truths, and add the missing context. 405 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,079 Speaker 6: Well, elong, by the way, could you just publish that? 406 00:25:28,279 --> 00:25:29,880 Could we create like a Grockipedia? 407 00:25:30,039 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 1: I mean yeah, especially for our bio pages, which a disaster. 408 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,359 Speaker 6: Wikipedia is so biased and it's it's a constant war. 409 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,319 You know, if something gets corrected five minutes later, there'll 410 00:25:41,319 --> 00:25:43,319 be an army of people trying to I mean, it's 411 00:25:43,319 --> 00:25:47,759 become hyper partisan and there's hyperperactivists. 412 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:47,519 Speaker 5: All over it. 413 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 6: So if you do fix, for example, Wikipedia is a 414 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,680 source of truth, it'd be great to publish that just 415 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:55,880 so the world has. 416 00:25:55,680 --> 00:26:01,839 Speaker 3: It all right, I'll about that, so total team about that, 417 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:03,440 like grock Fedia or whatever. 418 00:26:03,559 --> 00:26:04,880 Speaker 2: Let's here's the grock Fedia. 419 00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 3: Version interesting and then just have it out there. 420 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:13,759 Speaker 5: Where in terms of people here like it? 421 00:26:13,279 --> 00:26:13,400 Speaker 4: Uh? 422 00:26:13,839 --> 00:26:17,759 Speaker 6: In terms of training, Grock five, you're you're scaling up 423 00:26:17,759 --> 00:26:23,480 your supercluster in Colossus in Memphis. 424 00:26:23,839 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 5: Second one, Yeah, could you give us an update on that? 425 00:26:26,319 --> 00:26:29,599 Speaker 6: And then also as part of that, where are we 426 00:26:29,839 --> 00:26:33,359 in the scaling laws? If you scale a bigger cluster, 427 00:26:33,519 --> 00:26:35,279 do you get a more powerful AI model? 428 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,880 Speaker 5: Is there a point of diminishing returns? Or like how 429 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:39,599 much more. 430 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,480 Speaker 6: Compute if you throw twice as much compute at it, 431 00:26:41,519 --> 00:26:44,559 do you get a ten better model? 432 00:26:44,559 --> 00:26:46,079 Speaker 5: Do you get one hundred percent better model? 433 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 2: Like? 434 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:47,880 Speaker 5: Is it log linear? 435 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:48,119 Speaker 4: What? 436 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,319 Speaker 5: What? I guess? How much more juice is there left 437 00:26:51,319 --> 00:26:52,559 in scaling hardware? 438 00:26:52,599 --> 00:26:53,079 Speaker 6: Do you think? 439 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:59,279 Speaker 3: I think, I think there's a natural logarithmic function associated 440 00:26:59,319 --> 00:27:03,880 with the amount of cute. So then like say, for auguments, 441 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:08,680 take like panex more compute will double the intelligence. Maybe 442 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:12,119 that's that might be a rough rule of thumb, but 443 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:13,839 you know that still means that you know, you go 444 00:27:13,839 --> 00:27:17,240 from hundred IQ to hundred i Q still pretty pretty 445 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:23,640 big deal. So I and I think I think we'll 446 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,279 see intelligence continue to scale all the way up to 447 00:27:27,039 --> 00:27:29,960 where you know, most of the power of the sun 448 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,680 is hardness for compute, and then ultimately most of the 449 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,559 power of the galaxy, you know, sort of Kardashev two 450 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:42,640 quartus show three scale compute. So I guess I want 451 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,640 to think about official intelligence not as sort of this. 452 00:27:47,319 --> 00:27:48,839 Speaker 2: You know, a destination that you reach, but. 453 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:53,839 Speaker 3: Really as part of the overall escalation of intelligence. 454 00:27:55,319 --> 00:27:57,039 Speaker 2: That that that we are aware of. 455 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 3: You know, human intelligence is also scaled, as you have 456 00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:07,400 as the population has increased and we've been able to 457 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,680 store more and more information. Human intelligence is scale now 458 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:15,000 human Because of population declines and low growth rate, human 459 00:28:15,039 --> 00:28:21,519 intelligence is somewhat plateauing and will actually decline. And my 460 00:28:21,599 --> 00:28:27,559 guess is that I think that we might have AI 461 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,000 smarter than any single human at anything as soon as 462 00:28:31,079 --> 00:28:37,720 next year wow, and then probably within five, like I say, 463 00:28:37,759 --> 00:28:41,920 twenty thirty. Probably AI is smarter than the some gold humans. 464 00:28:42,559 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 7: Do you think do you think humans are on the 465 00:28:44,559 --> 00:28:48,000 decline because the AI is evolving? Do you think there's 466 00:28:48,039 --> 00:28:51,720 this evolution of the ecosystem on Earth that's out our 467 00:28:51,759 --> 00:28:53,920 way that we don't really understand the structure of what's 468 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:54,559 going on, but. 469 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,079 Speaker 2: Maybe yeah, maybe we implicitly know that it's coming. 470 00:29:12,079 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I hope the birth rates soon around. 471 00:29:15,799 --> 00:29:18,519 I'm I'm a big proponent of increased birth rate. 472 00:29:19,599 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: Obviously, Well you doing anything about it or no? 473 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:27,079 Speaker 2: A good example. 474 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:29,519 Speaker 7: You know, we had a. 475 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: Big conversation at this conference we didn't expect, which is 476 00:29:33,839 --> 00:29:41,279 suicidal empathy the West. This declining birth rate. I noticed 477 00:29:41,319 --> 00:29:42,559 you've been pretty active about it. 478 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 7: And open borders and open borders the Tucker talk. Could 479 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,079 all three of those be the same thing? 480 00:29:48,319 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 6: It seems like, there's a number of symptoms of the 481 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,240 West being suicidal, the most obvious one being the birth 482 00:29:54,319 --> 00:29:56,480 rate is not a replacement level. So obviously if that 483 00:29:56,559 --> 00:30:00,039 continues and definitely then the West will literally not. 484 00:30:00,519 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 5: Reproduce enough to replace itself. But there's other things too. 485 00:30:03,839 --> 00:30:07,079 Speaker 6: There's the fact that the borders were totally opened to 486 00:30:07,119 --> 00:30:10,039 the point where Western culture, the social fabrics started to 487 00:30:10,079 --> 00:30:13,559 come apart. And you see this especially in Europe where 488 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,440 they're you know, the indigenous cultures of the UK or 489 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,160 France or Germany or starting to potentially be taken over 490 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,240 by by cultures of people who are brought in and 491 00:30:23,279 --> 00:30:27,160 aren't assimilating. You have crime where you know, we have 492 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,440 this case on social media right now, this young woman, 493 00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:34,640 Irena who's just killed in a senseless way on a subway, 494 00:30:35,519 --> 00:30:37,839 which is horrific enough in and of itself, but then 495 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,799 in addition to that, the elite media just for whatever 496 00:30:40,839 --> 00:30:43,119 reason just refused to cover it like it didn't exist. 497 00:30:44,359 --> 00:30:46,359 So you have this issue of crime that's not being 498 00:30:46,359 --> 00:30:48,839 addressed or even no knowledge. 499 00:30:48,599 --> 00:30:51,920 Speaker 1: And no acknowledgment of this, Like it's almost like we're 500 00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:56,119 trying to deny the reality of the spiral and this. 501 00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,359 Speaker 6: Yeah, so you have the you have all these data 502 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:05,599 points that seemed to suggest that the West is suicidal 503 00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:08,720 or doesn't you know, doesn't seem to want to defend 504 00:31:08,759 --> 00:31:11,839 itself or propagated itself. Look, I think everyone in this 505 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,920 room thinks that life is awesome, right, I mean it's 506 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:15,480 pretty great. 507 00:31:17,559 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 5: Yeah. 508 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 6: And when when Alex Karp was here earlier today defending 509 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:23,599 the West, that got some of the loudest applause at 510 00:31:23,599 --> 00:31:26,799 the conference. So, uh, I guess we probably don't really 511 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:27,920 understand what's going on. 512 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:28,559 Speaker 2: We don't really. 513 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,319 Speaker 7: Yeah, what's your take elon because you know, what's your 514 00:31:31,319 --> 00:31:32,640 take on the suicide of the West? 515 00:31:32,839 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, what's what's. 516 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:38,079 Speaker 2: I'm very worried about it. Yeah, I'm very worried about it. 517 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:40,319 You know. I think there's the. 518 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:43,359 Speaker 3: Let's just say that the actions of the West are 519 00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:44,799 indistinguishable from suicide. 520 00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 2: It's so, but it's. 521 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:54,359 Speaker 3: Look, at least in America, there's there's there's generally a 522 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:58,640 sense of optimism. But when's the last time you told 523 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,319 someone from Europe who lives in Europe who's optimistic? 524 00:32:03,079 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 2: Not for a while, no decades, like even one. It's rare. 525 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,079 Speaker 3: So I think unless people have a sense of optimism 526 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:14,599 and purpose about the future. 527 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 2: They so suicide might be just what. 528 00:32:19,599 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 3: Happens, like like like having a child is an act 529 00:32:23,519 --> 00:32:24,960 of optimism about the future. 530 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 2: So uh, if you're not optimistic. 531 00:32:30,279 --> 00:32:37,519 Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think we need to maybe give people 532 00:32:37,519 --> 00:32:40,720 a sense of optimism and excitement about the future. And 533 00:32:41,039 --> 00:32:42,680 I believe that the future will be better than the 534 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:46,359 past and they'll be more interested in having kids. 535 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 7: Did religion play a role in the past? Elanta? Yeah, 536 00:32:50,119 --> 00:32:52,079 kind of play Kate and make folks feel that way. 537 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:54,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. 538 00:32:57,559 --> 00:33:01,359 Speaker 3: Nature abhors a vacuum, and if you take away religion, 539 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,960 then I think you actually you you get something in 540 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:10,240 this place which is actually worse than what was there before. 541 00:33:10,279 --> 00:33:12,440 I mean it's like destructive basically, you get you get 542 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,200 like the white work mind virus pulling, filling the whole 543 00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:18,880 that religion used to have, taking the place. 544 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:23,559 Speaker 2: Of of of religion. You get these dystopian, de facto 545 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:29,680 religions that that are that are very very self destructive. 546 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:37,759 Speaker 3: So I think perhaps some some sort of revival of religion, 547 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:42,000 or at least what we need is is some coherent 548 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:47,920 philosophy that people can get excited about, you know, I mean, 549 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,599 for me, it's a philosophy of curiosity. I'm curious about 550 00:33:50,599 --> 00:33:53,440 the nature of universe, and I want to go out there, 551 00:33:53,599 --> 00:33:56,519 and I want humanity to be out there exploring the stars. 552 00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,559 Speaker 2: That maybe meeting alien civilizations. 553 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 3: Uh maybe in some cases we see the ruins of 554 00:34:04,039 --> 00:34:07,599 elongate alien civilization, but they were they were very strong 555 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,559 for ten million years, you know, the kind of stuff 556 00:34:10,599 --> 00:34:13,280 that you see in Star Trek, in a non dystopian 557 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:17,599 and sci fi book or or movie or show. And 558 00:34:17,639 --> 00:34:19,360 so I'm just to have a I have a philosophy 559 00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,280 of curiosity of like, I just want to know what's 560 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,280 going on. And in order to know what's going on, 561 00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:28,480 we must have and an increase in the in the 562 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:32,199 scope and scale of consciousness. We must we must expand 563 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:36,039 as consciousness, we must grow, we must grow humanity, and 564 00:34:36,079 --> 00:34:42,800 we must extend humanity in order to comprehend and to 565 00:34:43,199 --> 00:34:44,079 understand the universe. 566 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:44,760 Speaker 2: Even what what. 567 00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 3: Question should we should ask about? The answer that is 568 00:34:48,039 --> 00:34:48,599 the universe? 569 00:34:50,079 --> 00:34:50,239 Speaker 2: You know. 570 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:54,440 Speaker 3: Doug Douglas adams book The Hitchhrackers Guys in the Galaxy 571 00:34:54,519 --> 00:34:58,159 is actually a deep book on philosophy disguised as humor. 572 00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:00,920 And what the point he was trying to make in 573 00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:05,760 that book was that the questions are the really the 574 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,920 hard part. The answer is the universe, like the answer 575 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,519 is everything you see around you. But but but what 576 00:35:11,559 --> 00:35:12,360 are the questions that we. 577 00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:13,000 Speaker 2: Don't know to ask? 578 00:35:13,599 --> 00:35:13,679 Speaker 1: Ye? 579 00:35:15,079 --> 00:35:17,360 Speaker 3: Now some of the questions I guess I do know. 580 00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,679 I'd like to know is the standard model of physics correct? 581 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,239 About the origins of the universe? Are we actually thirty 582 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,440 twenty ellion years old? How does the universe end? Does 583 00:35:25,639 --> 00:35:29,039 end an heat death or in some other way, you know, 584 00:35:29,199 --> 00:35:30,360 a black hole. 585 00:35:32,119 --> 00:35:37,239 Speaker 2: We might be Can you talk about the whole sort 586 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,400 of simulation question? Are we assimulation? Maybe? 587 00:35:39,599 --> 00:35:41,840 Speaker 1: Where does the Where do you think we find the 588 00:35:42,039 --> 00:35:47,760 answer first in AI or in the stars? Because you're 589 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,440 pursuing both obviously. 590 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:57,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know if I hope more people can 591 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:04,559 get behind a philosophy of curiosity because I think it's 592 00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:13,320 very exciting. Yeah, and and and and inherently optimistic, like 593 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,400 because there's there's this amazing, amazing sense. 594 00:36:16,199 --> 00:36:19,320 Speaker 2: Of wonder about the nature of the universe. 595 00:36:20,119 --> 00:36:22,320 Speaker 3: And when you just when you uncover some secrets to 596 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:27,000 the universe, that's amazing, and you're like a whole world 597 00:36:27,079 --> 00:36:31,679 of understanding is opened up. I mean we used to 598 00:36:31,679 --> 00:36:34,719 not even know where all the continents were. You know, 599 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,039 used to be like just the map would be, there'd 600 00:36:37,039 --> 00:36:39,440 be dragons, and like all we know is that when 601 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,960 they sailed in that direction, they didn't come back. I 602 00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:46,800 mean the moon base, that's that's all they knew. 603 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:49,920 Speaker 1: I kind of feel like the moon base, or just 604 00:36:50,119 --> 00:36:52,360 going to the Moon for real this time would be 605 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,079 a big step in the right direction. You still have 606 00:36:55,159 --> 00:36:58,199 the Moon planned, what's the status of that? Is that 607 00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,960 still on the agenda? 608 00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,960 Speaker 3: Yea, yea, I think having I think we want to 609 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:07,199 try to reach new heights as a civilization, so I 610 00:37:07,199 --> 00:37:09,280 think that's it's fine to go to the Moon, but 611 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,480 we should go to the Moon in order to establish 612 00:37:11,559 --> 00:37:16,440 a lunar base, like a lunar research base. I mean, 613 00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,079 there are parts of the Moon that are perhaps older 614 00:37:19,079 --> 00:37:23,440 than parts of Earth, and we might understand more about 615 00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,079 the nature of the universe if we had a science 616 00:37:25,119 --> 00:37:28,239 base on the Moon, that would be very cool. And 617 00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,519 then we obviously want to go beyond the Moon to Mars, 618 00:37:32,199 --> 00:37:37,000 and well they self sustaining city on Mars. I do 619 00:37:37,079 --> 00:37:41,000 think that that there is a folk in the road 620 00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,519 of human destiny where if we can establish a self 621 00:37:44,559 --> 00:37:49,519 sustaining city on Mars, with the key test being if 622 00:37:49,559 --> 00:37:52,400 the resupply ships from Earth stopped coming for any reason, 623 00:37:53,159 --> 00:37:55,559 does Mars continue to prosper or. 624 00:37:55,519 --> 00:37:56,320 Speaker 2: Does it die out. 625 00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,360 Speaker 3: At the point at which Mars is able to asper 626 00:38:00,519 --> 00:38:04,280 and grow on its own, the probable lifespan of consciousness 627 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:08,000 is dramatically greater because we are no longer dependent on 628 00:38:08,559 --> 00:38:12,079 everything going right on Earth. You know, there's there's always 629 00:38:12,119 --> 00:38:14,440 some possibility of self annihilation on Earth with the World 630 00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:19,800 War three, or or supervirus or or or a media 631 00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,239 or like extinct. But you know that destroyed the dinosaurs. 632 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,039 We know from the fossil record that there have been 633 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:29,440 many massive mass extinction events. So the question that I 634 00:38:29,519 --> 00:38:33,679 sort of always wondering about is will civilization can Will 635 00:38:33,679 --> 00:38:37,719 the civilizational arc continue to ascend such that we can 636 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:42,760 make Mars self sustaining before the civil civilizational arc descends, 637 00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:48,639 because the window of opportunity to make life faulty planetary 638 00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:51,599 exists now for the first time in the four and 639 00:38:51,639 --> 00:38:53,239 a half billion year history of Earth. 640 00:38:53,559 --> 00:38:58,039 Speaker 4: Yeah, you'll also assume that we get there and you're there. 641 00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,679 You know, you would be the elder statesman, you'd have 642 00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:07,079 the moral authority of Mars. How do you run Mars? 643 00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:13,960 Speaker 3: H But there's this point that I think I want 644 00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:18,280 to just emphasize again, that's that's that's more important than 645 00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,679 the form of governance on Mars or who's there in 646 00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:27,559 the early days. What really matters is that Mars is 647 00:39:28,119 --> 00:39:31,960 self sustaining, that we are truly a multi planet species 648 00:39:32,559 --> 00:39:36,239 and such such that we've achieved planetary redundancy, so that 649 00:39:36,679 --> 00:39:40,039 if if something, obviously we should do everything possible to 650 00:39:40,039 --> 00:39:42,159 make sure life on Earth is great. But there's always 651 00:39:42,159 --> 00:39:46,639 some risk that of an annihilation event on Earth, like 652 00:39:46,679 --> 00:39:52,039 I said, self annihilation or some natural disaster and UH, 653 00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:57,400 and so the probable lifespan of consciousness increases dramatically as 654 00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:01,239 soon as UH, as soon as we are a multiplanet species, 655 00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,960 with the key test being can Mars survive if the 656 00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:07,639 resupply ships stop coming. So it's getting like the first 657 00:40:07,639 --> 00:40:11,159 missions to Mars are not that important. What matters is 658 00:40:11,199 --> 00:40:15,039 can you get sufficient tonnage to Mars such that Mars 659 00:40:15,079 --> 00:40:18,599 can prosper on its own, And that means it has 660 00:40:18,639 --> 00:40:21,880 to have all of the ingredients of civilization. It's not 661 00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,480 just that you need to build, for example, a chip factory, 662 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,079 on Mars or ship fab on Mars, but you need 663 00:40:27,119 --> 00:40:29,159 the ability ability to apps. 664 00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,400 Speaker 4: Do you have a sense of the time scale, Like, 665 00:40:31,599 --> 00:40:35,119 let's assume Starship is at a state starting in you know, 666 00:40:35,159 --> 00:40:37,000 twenty twenty six, then there's going to be a bunch 667 00:40:37,039 --> 00:40:38,880 of testing. Obviously there's going to be a bunch of 668 00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,039 early testing. We only have certain launch windows, so there's 669 00:40:42,079 --> 00:40:45,960 a bunch of time constraints. Is this a fifty year 670 00:40:46,039 --> 00:40:47,719 thing in your mind? Is it one hundred and fifty 671 00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:50,440 year thing? Is it something that is for our generation 672 00:40:50,679 --> 00:40:53,599 or is it our children's generation? Where do you see 673 00:40:53,599 --> 00:40:57,079 that point? If it's optimally possible, you know, things go 674 00:40:57,119 --> 00:40:57,880 and break our way. 675 00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,119 Speaker 2: I think it can be done in thirty years. 676 00:41:05,519 --> 00:41:08,400 Speaker 3: If it provided there's an exponential increase in the in 677 00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:12,360 the tonnage to Mars with each success of MAAS transfer windows, 678 00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,119 which is every two years, So every two years the 679 00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:18,320 planets aligned and you can you can transfer to Mars. 680 00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:26,719 So I think in roughly fifteen, but maybe as few 681 00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:30,320 as ten, but I saw ten to fifteen ish mass 682 00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:37,480 transfer windows. If you're seeing exponential increases in the tonnage 683 00:41:37,519 --> 00:41:40,480 to Mars with each mass transfer window, then it should 684 00:41:40,519 --> 00:41:44,480 be possible to make more self sustaining in about quote 685 00:41:44,599 --> 00:41:45,679 roughly twenty five years. 686 00:41:46,199 --> 00:41:46,679 Speaker 1: Amazing. 687 00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:47,760 Speaker 2: That's incredible. 688 00:41:48,159 --> 00:41:52,440 Speaker 1: All right, ladies and gentlemen, Elon Musk, we'll see you 689 00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,280 when we're back in town. We miss you, see you 690 00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,039 in person, that's time. Thank you, brother,