Speaker 1: Well, a couple of years, I have been saying that
the cycles are lining up to bring the same terrible
situation as in the early threeties, and I talked about
twenty twenty six. Yes, and this is a danger, danger,
long term danger situation.
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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Letz, and back, by
popular demand is Charles Nenner. Charles, you've been on the
show numerous times. You've made a number of the very
canny accurate calls. We talked extensively in the past about
the war cycle, and it certainly looks like that cycles
heating up now as you had given us poor tens
of in the past. Where do you see the world
war cycle now? Are we heading towards the conflagration or
is the cycle going to ease off?
Speaker 1: The cycle is a little bit going to ease off,
but the big explosion is going to be in two
thy thirty to thirty two mm hmmm.
Speaker 3: So obviously you know the cycles there, you don't really
know how it's going to be, what the players are
going to be.
Speaker 1: Well, we know who the players are. Yeah, I just
get back to my same situation. I think the biggest
problem is going to be China and Taiwan. And I
will tell you why. If the United States gets involved,
to have a big problem. Right, if the Chinese tied
to take over the one. Now, if the United States
doesn't get involved, we have a big problem. Why because
then big countries see that, you know, you can take
over smaller countries and nobody will do anything. So then
the other countries we're going to do the same. There's
still a lot of disputes in Europe, in the Slovakia
and who knows where. And he says, okay, so it
seems the United States not interfering, so we can take
over this country, we can take over that country. So
there's no good solution for this problem.
Speaker 3: Mhm. So we're basically damned if we do and we're
damned if we don't. Correct all Right, so, I mean,
it's all part of the political cycle. I guess the
war in Ukraine Russia is according to your work, do
you have an opinion on it?
Speaker 1: Well, I have an opinion about it, very strong opinion
about it. How that started, there was an agreement with Gorbachev,
I have to go down back a little bit, that
they shoot. The Americans assured him that if he would
withdraw half a mon allion soldiers of the army from
Russia from East Germany, that's where the NATO would stop.
And actually they broke their promise to to mister put
In several times, and they expand and they expand until
he says, listen, not here. And if we compare it
to the situation with Kennedy, Kennedy nobody had any problem
that he was treatening Cuba because the Russians are putting
rockets over there. But now it seems the Americans say,
I don't understand why Russia has a problem that we
expand the NATO right to their borders and putting Cystel
here not further. And if if only Selinsky would say okay,
we would all will not be part of the NATO,
I think it would we have the end of the
whole problem. And he warned them. He warned them, you're
not going to get close to my border with the NATO.
And these NATO people say, I know because I'm from
Europe and very close to them. They say, well, nobody's
going to tell us what to do. I said, yes,
But if you come to my house and put a
rocket in front of the house, I can tell you
what to do. I says, I want you to move
the rocket the way. And if you say, you know,
don't tell me what to do, you get in trouble.
So that's the whole problem over here that doesn't nobody
wants to give in.
Speaker 3: There's a very unpopular opinion in the United States, but
it's one that I adhere to because there was a
historian I can't remember his name back in the nineties
early nineties when the Iron Curtain fell, and he warned
the United States about encircling Russia with NATO and that
it would inevitably lead to conflict. As far as the
war ending, is it going to end here at some
point in the not too distant future. Hopefully.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's really going to end. Maybe we'll
have a pause. But this is going on. For this
is going on for a long time, as long as
Zelinsky doesn't say, and the native doesn't say, we understand,
they don't understand the Russian see under the Russians date.
They suffer with a lot from Napoleon am Hitler and
from the Russian Revolution and the Second World War. And
it seems that the West is not understanding why Russians
are afraid. They don't want to take over Europe. They're
just afraid for next to massacre.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and understanding that. We don't think Putin is a
choir boy by any stretch, but in this case he's
legitimately looking out for Russian interests and encirclement is not
the way to get on his good side. If there
is a way.
Speaker 1: For Russia, it's very difficult because there's almost no way out.
There's no way out, and I know that because I
have some context with the Russians for many years, because
they're surrounded by all the Muslim countries, so they have
not a lot of trust in having that as an exit.
And then you know, to the north it's difficult. So
they need Europe actually, and if Europe would be would
be clever, they would just incorporate Russia because actually that
Russia wants to be part of Europe. But we have
this doctor in the United States. What is it called
Monroe doctrine or something like.
Speaker 3: That, the doctrine.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that we have to finish up the Russians. Nobody
knows why, and we're not looking at the rest of
the world. That starts to be much more dangerous. So
as long as they have this doctrine and they expand,
it's not going to stop.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, Trump's really does not appear to be a
big supporter of the war, wants it to end, but
there's just interest not to mention the military industrial complex exactly.
You know, they're the biggest beneficiar area of it. They
don't care who wins or loses, as long as they're
products keept put in production, destroyed and then need to
be replaced.
Speaker 1: Yes, the Christmas to come in and you know, make
money on the rebuilding of the Ukraine.
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. Well, hopefully they'll see some sense. What do
you see with the stock market, particularly, you know, the
Dow Jones, the major indices were going to keep seeing
them go higher, And is that strictly a result of
inflation or is there something else going on.
Speaker 1: What's going on is that everybody's crazy. And I remember
in two thousand and seven eight I predicted this, this
crash and on CEB see and after the question says says,
how could we so stupid to think a market never
goes down again? For a couple of years, I have
been saying that these cycles are lining up to bring
the same terrible situation as in the early thirties, and
I talked about twenty twenty six. Yes, and this is
a danger danger, long term, dangerous situation.
Speaker 3: Mm hmm. So the markets are grossly overvalued, isn't it
a lot of a function of money coming from money
flows coming from other countries' loss of faith in their
own markets and their own government paper.
Speaker 1: Well, they don't trust the American paper much better. No,
nobody trust anybody. One of the reasons gold is up.
And I don't know if I discussed on this show
was again from the europe perspective.
Speaker 3: A lot of.
Speaker 1: European countries had the gold stored with the Americans, and
at a certain moment they thought that and probably was correct,
that the Americans were all we estimating they didn't have
all their gold anymore. That are supposed to keep from
the Europeans. And then I said, now they're going to
buy back a lot of gold, because Europeans already asked
them to send back the gold to Europe because they
didn't trust the Americans anymore. Oh now it's nobody trusts
anything any anything anymore. Because you know, I have friends
who who cannot send their children to kindergarten because the
subsidies disappeared, because everything goes to the defense now in Europe,
which is going to kill the economy. Also because these
people cannot go to work, they have to take care.
Speaker 3: Of the children.
Speaker 1: So this is really a worldwide situation that you cannot underestimate.
Speaker 3: So gold keeps going higher, and what about silver.
Speaker 1: Well, both of them, both of them. There's a lot
of cycles stopped over here, and I think they only
go up again in the summer June July. I expect
now to see some weakness and then into the summer
and then go up again.
Speaker 3: How high you think they can go, I.
Speaker 1: Couldn't tell you. I couldn't tell you because the system
I have goes calculates this from the lost highs, and
it's so far above the last high that I couldn't
come up with a number.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 1: So so I did years ago write an article for
Golden Sacks when I was there that if they would
connect the gold standard again which was taken out by Nixon,
to the dollar, then I know the price is going
to thirty thousand.
Speaker 3: Mm hmm. You think, I think they.
Speaker 1: Dared to do that, but you never know what's going on.
Speaker 3: Yeah, do you think that could actually happen? I mean
that would require giving up power, the ability to run deficits,
to basically spend on anything that they deem necessary, and
it would just be giving up massive power. Effect Well,
there is there is research.
Speaker 1: It says that the expansion of a bigger state country
is usually two at fifty years. And first we were
proud because on Dutch, the Dutch who was ruling the
world and the seas two and fifty years, they got
into a deficit, and then towards the Spanish and Portugal
and they got into such a deficit and they gave up.
And then it was the English and they also got
in trouble. And if you go from the Civil War,
I think it's now fifty years exactly to the point.
So the United States should be at the end of
the expansion. And like I said a couple of years ago,
the major major powers in the economy is going to
come from the east in the China, of course, Japan,
It's going to come from there. And the West is
just gonna, you know, stay behind, like Europe is staying
behind early for many years. Also the United States will
stay behind. And I understand the problem. Nobody wants to
do something about the deficit because it makes you unpopular,
so they continue to continue to continue. And if something
happens and the short term interest rates have to go up,
they almost cannot you know, pay their debt. It's going
to be a big problem.
Speaker 3: So are ray it's heading higher.
Speaker 1: The long term rates are still heading higher, but waiting
for the short short term rates, you know, to not
right now, but if they go up a percent or so,
then there's a big travel ahead.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: The work I do with the cycle is actually in
the interpretation of the facts. And let me give you
and give you an example. Let's say you own IVM
at one hundred and it goes one hundred and fifty
doing great, So IBM comes out with a great number.
So the question is is IBM going up tomorrow? Or down,
so everybody will say it's a great number. It goes up.
So if it goes up, the walls etournal will write
the results were so good, people pour it into IBM.
Whatever AM goes down the next day now to come
up with a story. People don't think IBM can do
better next time, so they to profit. No, No, that's
how it works, and I work. So even if you
know the facts, you have to know the interpret So
why do I say this. We have this problem with
the deficit, and everybody knows this problem, but since the
cycles were up, they don't take it seriously. So once
the cycle turns down, they all start to remember all
the bad situations that are in the world, and that
will sell off the market. So it's not based on facts.
It's based on the interpretation of facts, because we all
know what the situation is.
Speaker 3: Right, And I know you said in the past that
the cycle determines the news, not that he's determining the cycle.
I explain that to people and it's like I'm talking
a foreign language.
Speaker 1: You can't, you can't, you can't do it. I made
it this extreme that they say, well, what if they
will you say the market goes up and they will
kill Trump today and the market can cannot go up.
People will say right, and they say, it's the other
way around. It's like quantum mechanics, which most people don't
know about it. The cause and result is reversed. So
if I see the market goes up, today's not the
data can call Trump. They can only kill Trump if
the market is going to sell off.
Speaker 3: And we're saying figuratively here, not literally, but yes, yeah.
And that's the fascinating thing that once you get it
through your head, that the that the cause is really
the effect and the effect is really the cause. It
really changes your outlook towards how you see news, how
you see markets, everything else. So inflation, they like to say,
inflation's gone, it's under control. But the cycle is the cycle, right.
Speaker 1: Right, and you can't stop it. It's nothing you can do.
I used to say. People say, so what do we do?
I says, well, after summer comes winter you can stop it.
But if you know it's coming, you can have a
winter code. So what my work does is we don't
look at the news. We just know what's going to happen,
and later we find out why it's going to happen.
If that is already connected. Maybe they just make up
a story. You don't know.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of fiction. I kind of view
it as like you're in Hawaii and the title wave
is coming and you're on a surfboard, and do you
try to fight the wave or do you try to
ride the wave? And riding it is always the best
course of action. You might get thrown off the board,
but at least you're heading in the right direction. And
really it's kind of fascinating. So food prices, energy prices.
Let's do energy first, because you've been uncannily correct on
energy prices over the long term.
Speaker 1: If you remember that once we had a crash and
I predicted that the oil price will go to three dollars,
Do you remember that?
Speaker 3: Yes? I remember.
Speaker 1: It was so strange, and it went even to minus
two or minus three and a minus four. So I
was in contact with some governments, says, by all the
contracts you can, because now you can tobute fuel for free.
Wasifuying it under the price? Okay, there were not a
lot of them. Were not sophisticated again enough to know
how to do it. And now I forgot your question.
Speaker 3: Can you hear out so well, first I'll talk about
energy prices short long term, and then food prices.
Speaker 1: Okay, so I tell you short term, we had an
upside target of sixty seven forty. I think we reached
sixty seven thirty and we'll see a bit shortened weakness.
But longer term, oil prices are going higher. The weekly
cycle is up, and people will say that's because of Iran. Well,
if it didn't go up really to the roof until now,
it has nothing to do with Iran. It's just the cycle.
So longer term, we're bullish on the on the crude
and not a natural gas. Yet we're still short natural gas.
In a couple of weeks we see as bottom coming
in natural gas. So let's see if Trump I think,
you know, it's too expensive to keep the half of
the army around Iran and not do anything. So I
think they have to do something. And let's see if
there's any connection to the to the oil price. Last time,
nothing happened when they thought that Iran, So again here
we go. Has nothing to do with the news, otherwise
all the traders would be very long over now. And
now I think we're on sixty six and so obviously
they don't make any connection with Iran.
Speaker 3: Nothing's happened with Venezuela being taken over either. So is
that telling us that the economy is really weak, that
the economic cycle is down, or is it telling us
that supplies are way more than necessary. I'm not sure
how to read it.
Speaker 1: Well again, you see not that you made the same mistake,
But it's the interpretation. It just depends what people think
right now and the cycle. How did I get into
the cycles because I did the psychiatry residence when I
was a medical doctor, and we tried to find out
all over the world if people become psychotic at the
same time the cycle that all over the world, the
more psychotic pagers. Now we knew that if there's full moon,
more women get birthed early, and so you have to
staff your hospital. If you ask me why, nobody knows
what it has to do with the full moon, but
you just have to be ready.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Well, as a doctor, you learn if the red pill
saves you, I give you the red pill. You ask
me how it works. I don't know. So that's the
same what we do with the markets. Why it happens,
could be, could not be. I have this big discussion
about the black Swan theory. You know, the black Swan
theory is unexpected coming and that can crash the markets. Now,
if you know the banks and the companies I work with,
how much people they have working on what could trigger it,
we don't have to look that. We know when it's
going to happen. So, well, why do you do all
that work? So I asked them why do you do
all that work? And then they say, because if we
have shareholder meetings, this is how people think, and we
cannot say, listen, we know when it's going to happen.
We don't know why they don't accept it. So they
have hundreds and hundreds of pages of explanations in case A, B, C,
D what can happen? So why are people still not
following what we just said that why don't you look
at what's going to happen and not why it's going
to happen? Because they're conditioned by this by people who
sell the networks, you know, the cnbcs and the foxes
et cetera, et cetera. And there's a whole industry around
this with people who have no idea why your market
goes up and down as you broke, It doesn't know
and they keep the reality out of the common view.
So that's why most people don't improve.
Speaker 3: And the black swan always comes from outside the system,
not from within, so they're looking in the wrong places anyway. Yeah,
so food prices, you know, they've been pretty contained as
of recently. What's the cycle telling us there?
Speaker 1: It will take some a while, but the inflation's coming back.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So can we tell inflations down just because of
the cycle or.
Speaker 1: Just because of the cycle. If you think that prices
go up, look at countries where they have an economy
of Venezuela or Iran or whatever Turkey and they think,
you know, tomorrow my money is worth less, so I'm
going to buy it today. Drives the prices. Nothing happened yet,
Is this what you think? So once people are thinking
inflation comes back, we have a problem, right.
Speaker 3: One final question about silver. You know, we see it
appears that silver is in a shortage chronic deficit. We
don't know how much silver is out there being held,
especially in Asia by just cultures that believe wealth should
be kept in metals. Is a cycle appearing that silver
is in tight supply?
Speaker 1: In fact, I really I heard that also, it's not again,
it's not what we're busy with. We're busy enough with
all the markets we follow. And again I tell you
that they all said, to people who like to know
what we do, you can go to the website. You
don't have to give a credit card. You can go
out thirty days for free. We don't ask a credit card,
we don't ask anything. And see how we do it.
So we're busy with what's going to happen and when
it's gonna happen, and a lead for the other people.
Like Buffett said, I never saw a journalist a financial journalist.
There was a multi millionaire. And if you listen to
the people on television, they sit there. Actually I like
them because it used to be a lot on CNBC.
They sit already for thirty years and we listen to them.
And if they would be so good, you know, they
would do something else. Yeah, they would have a hedge fund,
or they would be running a bank, or there will
be you know.
Speaker 3: The talking heads never steaks to amaze. Well, those who
can do those who can't teach. Those who can't teach,
teach teachers. Those who can't teach teachers become journalists pretty much.
Speaker 1: So I just forgot to say. So, if you go
to Charles Nanda Research Center, you can sign us thirty
days for free and just follow how we do it.
At least you know how the insiders do it. If
you don't want to do it that way, if you
want to listen to the media, you're free to do it.
But at least if you notice knowledge around and it
can really help you making a lot of fortune.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've seen it over the years. I've experienced it myself.
The link is in the show notes this interview on
Financial Survival Network dot com. We're now fully substack, so
please sign up, subscribe, and Charles appreciate you coming on
as always, Be well and we'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1: Okay, we will.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,