WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.919 --> 00:00:11.759 A lot of fundamentals, I'll acts and an individual lots. 2 00:00:14.640 --> 00:00:16.600 This is the show. 3 00:00:20.679 --> 00:00:23.120 Oh right, everybody, welcome to your one book show on 4 00:00:23.160 --> 00:00:29.800 this Saturday, January eighteenth. I hope everybody is after a 5 00:00:29.800 --> 00:00:36.840 great start to the weekend. And yeah, so, uh, we're 6 00:00:36.840 --> 00:00:39.520 gonna be talking today about the first hundred days and 7 00:00:39.520 --> 00:00:43.399 and kind of what is possible, and uh, talk about 8 00:00:43.640 --> 00:00:45.359 what I think Trump is going to do, and I'll 9 00:00:46.240 --> 00:00:50.200 I'll talk a little bit about and then I'll talk 10 00:00:50.240 --> 00:00:53.280 about what I would do in the first hundred days. 11 00:00:53.359 --> 00:00:57.240 First hundred days, of course, a time where Congress and 12 00:00:57.399 --> 00:01:02.759 the public supposedly gives you some lead way, some freedom 13 00:01:02.799 --> 00:01:06.879 to maneuver, the ability maybe to pass stuff that maybe 14 00:01:07.000 --> 00:01:09.920 outside of the hundred days you couldn't do because it 15 00:01:10.480 --> 00:01:14.079 is not that popular, more difficult politically. Whether that is 16 00:01:14.079 --> 00:01:16.599 true or not, I do not know, but let's make 17 00:01:16.599 --> 00:01:20.400 the assumption. What the hell? All right, what else do 18 00:01:20.439 --> 00:01:26.439 we want to say? Yeah, today is tomorrow. Tomorrow is 19 00:01:26.439 --> 00:01:30.200 officially in Puerto Rico, the end of Christmas season. I 20 00:01:30.239 --> 00:01:32.319 know for you guys, it's already over a long time ago, 21 00:01:32.359 --> 00:01:35.359 But in Puerto Rico they celebrate three kings and then 22 00:01:35.400 --> 00:01:39.519 they celebrate something called San Sebastian, and it's like a weekend, 23 00:01:40.000 --> 00:01:44.000 like from Thursday to Sunday. It's party twenty four to seven. 24 00:01:45.200 --> 00:01:48.040 It's out in Old San Juan. The consequence of that 25 00:01:48.120 --> 00:01:51.359 is they basically closed all the roads leading to Old 26 00:01:51.400 --> 00:01:54.239 San Juan, which means all the roads outside our condo 27 00:01:54.400 --> 00:01:55.120 are closed off. 28 00:01:55.280 --> 00:01:56.560 It's a major hasshole. 29 00:01:57.280 --> 00:02:00.519 But there are hundreds of thousands of people round, millions 30 00:02:00.519 --> 00:02:03.719 of people in Olden One right now partying, and. 31 00:02:03.680 --> 00:02:05.959 They will be there all night anyway. 32 00:02:07.200 --> 00:02:10.960 Yes, Puerto Ricans have a very long Christmas season, starts 33 00:02:11.400 --> 00:02:15.400 before Thanksgiving and it ends tomorrow night, Monday morning. 34 00:02:17.199 --> 00:02:18.879 All right, So. 35 00:02:21.080 --> 00:02:26.800 Monday Monday, Donald Trump will be come the president of 36 00:02:26.879 --> 00:02:32.919 the United States. He'd be inaugurated almost certainly immediately on 37 00:02:32.960 --> 00:02:36.039 his way to the party. He will assign a bunch 38 00:02:36.039 --> 00:02:40.680 of executive orders to get things rolling. In the days following, 39 00:02:41.240 --> 00:02:45.360 you can expect dozens of executive voters almost a day. 40 00:02:46.400 --> 00:02:48.080 Roomors have it that in the first week there will 41 00:02:48.120 --> 00:02:52.400 be one hundred executive voters that that Trump will sign. 42 00:02:55.039 --> 00:02:58.840 They'll be all over the place, covering everything, and most 43 00:02:58.840 --> 00:03:02.599 of them will be think more than symbolic statements. Of 44 00:03:03.159 --> 00:03:07.759 stuff creating this group advisors and that group of advisors, 45 00:03:07.800 --> 00:03:11.159 and this thing or that thing, but some will be 46 00:03:11.360 --> 00:03:12.240 quite substantive. 47 00:03:12.680 --> 00:03:13.599 There certainly will be. 48 00:03:15.039 --> 00:03:27.000 Significant, significant executive executive orders relating to immigration, for example, 49 00:03:28.159 --> 00:03:32.960 and relating to tariffs, the two things that Trump is 50 00:03:33.000 --> 00:03:36.879 most seemingly most passionate about, immigration and tariffs, and I 51 00:03:36.919 --> 00:03:40.560 think those will get very early on. I think already 52 00:03:41.159 --> 00:03:45.439 tomorrow you'll get some kind of deportation executive order that 53 00:03:45.520 --> 00:03:50.560 are going to effect immediately and will require ICE to 54 00:03:50.639 --> 00:03:55.159 start going into particularly blue states and blue cities and 55 00:03:55.159 --> 00:04:00.520 and start arresting people and setting them up for the deportation. 56 00:04:01.560 --> 00:04:07.759 It is good to remember in this context of deportation, 57 00:04:08.039 --> 00:04:11.400 just so people don't freak up too much, is that 58 00:04:11.800 --> 00:04:17.120 in Trump's Trump's first term, the first the four years 59 00:04:17.319 --> 00:04:22.600 twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one, very little deportation happened. Indeed, 60 00:04:23.519 --> 00:04:26.920 Obama deported more people than Trump, and Biden deported more 61 00:04:26.920 --> 00:04:27.519 people to Trump. 62 00:04:27.600 --> 00:04:28.879 Now, granted more people came. 63 00:04:28.800 --> 00:04:32.480 Across under Biden, but Obama was pretty aggressive in deporting people. 64 00:04:34.160 --> 00:04:36.399 Is Trump literally going to be rounding people up and 65 00:04:36.439 --> 00:04:40.199 putting them in camps and making it I'm skeptical we'll 66 00:04:40.240 --> 00:04:43.399 see I mean he could be I think onemat more 67 00:04:43.480 --> 00:04:47.240 likely to see kind of an Obama level plus ramped 68 00:04:47.319 --> 00:04:52.399 up Obama levels of deportation, rather than kind of the 69 00:04:52.399 --> 00:04:59.680 the camp's scenario eleven million people being rounded up, as 70 00:05:00.160 --> 00:05:04.600 some people in Donald Trump's camp have suggested. So I 71 00:05:05.279 --> 00:05:08.480 don't think we'll get the worst case scenario from that, 72 00:05:08.639 --> 00:05:11.240 but but it certainly will. You know, that certainly will 73 00:05:11.279 --> 00:05:13.959 be one of the first things he does. Remember a 74 00:05:14.000 --> 00:05:15.639 lot of what Donald Trump does, a lot of what 75 00:05:15.720 --> 00:05:18.040 Donald Trump says is performative. 76 00:05:18.720 --> 00:05:21.240 It is for show, it is. 77 00:05:21.000 --> 00:05:25.600 To appease a particular group of people. I think another 78 00:05:25.639 --> 00:05:28.600 thing that will happen on Monday is there will be official, 79 00:05:28.639 --> 00:05:36.399 an official announcement on Monday that we now have the 80 00:05:36.439 --> 00:05:40.240 greatest economy we have ever had. That it is immediately 81 00:05:40.800 --> 00:05:44.439 recategorized from a really really bad economy to a really 82 00:05:44.519 --> 00:05:45.399 really good economy. 83 00:05:46.079 --> 00:05:46.439 Uh. 84 00:05:46.519 --> 00:05:47.279 And uh. 85 00:05:49.839 --> 00:05:51.120 Might take a few days. 86 00:05:50.839 --> 00:05:53.680 To that one to happen, but but already, you know, 87 00:05:53.720 --> 00:05:57.079 people are people are reconsidering that. All right. 88 00:05:59.120 --> 00:05:59.600 Let's see. 89 00:06:00.519 --> 00:06:03.360 The other one, of course, will be tariffs. I do 90 00:06:03.519 --> 00:06:06.360 expect that we'll get tariffs right off the bat, pretty 91 00:06:06.399 --> 00:06:07.000 quickly here. 92 00:06:07.720 --> 00:06:10.519 It really does seem like he is committed again. 93 00:06:10.600 --> 00:06:15.000 Tariff's Anti trade is the one policy that Trump has 94 00:06:15.079 --> 00:06:19.399 held firm to since in nineteen eighty, so this is 95 00:06:20.000 --> 00:06:22.920 going on well into forty years. It's the one thing 96 00:06:22.959 --> 00:06:26.399 I think he really believes in. And so I do 97 00:06:26.560 --> 00:06:32.319 expect to see some form of, you know, maybe universal tariffs, 98 00:06:32.319 --> 00:06:37.480 so maybe a progression or maybe starting out with some 99 00:06:37.720 --> 00:06:41.720 increase in tariffs across the board, ratcheting up to some 100 00:06:41.879 --> 00:06:45.759 higher level in the future, so that he can pretend 101 00:06:45.839 --> 00:06:50.160 that he's going to use this for leverage. And so 102 00:06:51.000 --> 00:06:56.360 we will see, we will see exactly what he has 103 00:06:56.360 --> 00:07:00.759 in mind in terms of starting out our tariffs and 104 00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:04.639 in terms of launching his tariff agenda. But those two 105 00:07:05.399 --> 00:07:10.319 certainly will dominate. At the same time, Congress will start 106 00:07:10.839 --> 00:07:18.399 putting together this mother of all bills, the biggest, greatest, 107 00:07:18.560 --> 00:07:23.959 most amate amazing, beautiful and wonderful and stunning, and I 108 00:07:23.959 --> 00:07:27.079 don't know, just the greatest bill ever. And it'll be 109 00:07:27.160 --> 00:07:33.879 big that will try to capture a lot of Trump's priorities. 110 00:07:34.199 --> 00:07:35.519 It will include provisions. 111 00:07:35.560 --> 00:07:39.319 It will include immigration provisions, primarily at the level of 112 00:07:39.399 --> 00:07:42.720 just allocating budget for immigration. 113 00:07:43.040 --> 00:07:44.000 It will also. 114 00:07:43.800 --> 00:07:48.800 Include tax provisioning sort of include the extension of the 115 00:07:48.839 --> 00:07:56.600 two thousand and seventeen tax cuts into the future with 116 00:07:56.800 --> 00:08:00.079 some changes and adaptations. 117 00:08:00.120 --> 00:08:01.720 We'll see. It'll this will this is going to. 118 00:08:01.759 --> 00:08:05.319 Take a while to all come together. It will also 119 00:08:05.360 --> 00:08:11.639 include significant UH spending priorities, to include a budget which 120 00:08:11.639 --> 00:08:15.399 will include a number of spending priorities. My guess is 121 00:08:15.800 --> 00:08:18.439 that there will be a few bones thrown in the 122 00:08:18.480 --> 00:08:23.800 direction of Dodge, so there will be something in there 123 00:08:24.160 --> 00:08:29.240 around a greater government efficiency, and maybe maybe some budgets 124 00:08:29.240 --> 00:08:34.080 will be cut symbolically, But overall, this will be a 125 00:08:34.799 --> 00:08:42.840 massive spending bill, massive tax bill, a hugely, hugely deficit 126 00:08:44.519 --> 00:08:48.720 will be clearly UH. This this bill will be a 127 00:08:48.759 --> 00:08:52.600 deficit spending bill, but it will have it will have 128 00:08:53.200 --> 00:08:57.159 It might include kind of an expansion of the president's 129 00:08:57.159 --> 00:09:02.679 authority visa the tariffs. I don't know whether the Trump 130 00:09:02.919 --> 00:09:05.240 people think they need that, but they might just throw 131 00:09:05.279 --> 00:09:09.159 it in there just for just to be safe, so 132 00:09:09.320 --> 00:09:12.519 give him more authority than he even has right now in. 133 00:09:12.519 --> 00:09:16.679 Terms of tariffs. I don't think it'll have explicit tariffs 134 00:09:16.720 --> 00:09:17.000 in there. 135 00:09:17.360 --> 00:09:20.360 We'll see, but I think it'll have some provisioning there 136 00:09:20.399 --> 00:09:22.120 again on the immigration. 137 00:09:24.200 --> 00:09:24.799 It'll have. 138 00:09:26.799 --> 00:09:31.559 There will be no And I'll make this prediction right now. 139 00:09:33.840 --> 00:09:41.039 Goverment spending under Trump every year will be higher than 140 00:09:41.080 --> 00:09:45.559 the previous year. Goverment spending under Trump will be higher 141 00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:49.879 than goverment spending under Biden. The growth, the rate of 142 00:09:49.919 --> 00:09:53.159 growth might slow, but gom and spending will. 143 00:09:52.960 --> 00:09:54.120 Not be cut. 144 00:09:55.399 --> 00:09:55.519 Uh. 145 00:09:55.679 --> 00:09:57.519 There will be a big. 146 00:09:57.399 --> 00:10:02.840 Grand, beautiful, amazing, stunning, greatest in all of history, proposals 147 00:10:02.840 --> 00:10:07.720 submitted by the Elon Musks of the world before the deadline. 148 00:10:07.720 --> 00:10:10.960 When there's the deadline sometime in twenty twenty six that 149 00:10:11.879 --> 00:10:14.799 argues for eight bunch of cuts and a bunch of 150 00:10:14.799 --> 00:10:18.639 streamlining and fiving people, and some people will be fired 151 00:10:19.320 --> 00:10:24.360 and everything, and Trump will say, this is magnificent, is 152 00:10:24.360 --> 00:10:27.200 exactly what I want, This is amazing, I love this, 153 00:10:27.200 --> 00:10:30.159 this is fantastic. He will send it to Congress and 154 00:10:30.200 --> 00:10:33.240 it will die slowly because Trump won't fight for it 155 00:10:33.360 --> 00:10:38.159 and pressure group politics will not allow it again. A 156 00:10:38.200 --> 00:10:40.759 few symbolic things will happen here and there, but government 157 00:10:40.799 --> 00:10:45.399 spending will be significant higher four years from now than 158 00:10:45.440 --> 00:10:48.759 it is today. Trump will spend more money than Biden. 159 00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:52.600 And that is my prediction. 160 00:10:53.000 --> 00:10:54.519 And you know. 161 00:10:55.960 --> 00:11:04.200 I'd be known to be wrong, to be wrong and uh, 162 00:11:04.240 --> 00:11:08.840 but I'm betting that. Am I betting against Elon Musk? Absolutely, 163 00:11:09.519 --> 00:11:11.039 I'm betting against the loan Musk. 164 00:11:11.399 --> 00:11:11.759 I'm not. 165 00:11:11.919 --> 00:11:13.720 I'm not going to tell you what I think the 166 00:11:13.799 --> 00:11:15.919 price of Tesla is going to be or how much 167 00:11:15.960 --> 00:11:17.960 money SpaceX is going to make. I'm not going to 168 00:11:18.039 --> 00:11:21.480 bet against Trump against Elon Musk and business. But yeah, 169 00:11:21.480 --> 00:11:24.279 when it comes to politics, I'm betting against Alan Musk 170 00:11:25.039 --> 00:11:35.519 without a doubt. They might also be an attempt by 171 00:11:35.799 --> 00:11:40.279 congressional Republicans to pass or to come together around a 172 00:11:40.759 --> 00:11:48.840 immigration bill A a immigration bill that restricts restricts immigration 173 00:11:50.000 --> 00:11:56.480 and uh, and there's and and so it'll look very 174 00:11:56.559 --> 00:12:00.919 much like the bipartisan bill there were is that it 175 00:12:01.200 --> 00:12:03.720 was brought in front of the Senate, what it was 176 00:12:03.759 --> 00:12:06.759 a nine months ago, and that Trump basically said to 177 00:12:06.879 --> 00:12:10.720 Republicans not to even consider It'll look very much like 178 00:12:10.840 --> 00:12:15.279 that something like that will pass. They might even include 179 00:12:15.279 --> 00:12:20.440 in there some streamlining of H one B for for 180 00:12:19.360 --> 00:12:25.440 uh for extraordinarily talent. I don't know, I'm not sure 181 00:12:25.480 --> 00:12:28.159 that could pass, but they might include something like that. 182 00:12:28.679 --> 00:12:30.720 But there will be some kind of immigration stick to 183 00:12:30.759 --> 00:12:34.080 immigration bill, again very similar to the one Democrats agreed 184 00:12:34.120 --> 00:12:39.240 to under Biden, but that Trump would not let Republicans consider. 185 00:12:39.840 --> 00:12:45.440 And I think in this case what a uh Trump 186 00:12:45.519 --> 00:12:50.039 will will will sign off on that bill. Here's here's 187 00:12:50.440 --> 00:12:54.559 here's what Here's what trump mindlessness syndrome does to people. 188 00:12:55.039 --> 00:12:58.399 So Jones Wright, Yeah, we should have elected Kamala instead. 189 00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:00.720 Is that your point you're on, No, it's not. My 190 00:13:00.799 --> 00:13:03.159 point is this is what Trump is going to do. 191 00:13:03.320 --> 00:13:07.240 I didn't make any opinion about who should have been elected. 192 00:13:07.639 --> 00:13:10.639 All I'm saying is Trump will spend a lot of money. 193 00:13:10.759 --> 00:13:13.080 You know, you like that? 194 00:13:13.200 --> 00:13:13.440 Great? 195 00:13:13.559 --> 00:13:14.320 You don't like that? 196 00:13:14.559 --> 00:13:14.840 Fine? 197 00:13:15.000 --> 00:13:19.080 I mean, why is everything about the last election? Last 198 00:13:19.120 --> 00:13:23.279 electures finished? Trump one celebate, you've celebrated. Now let's talk 199 00:13:23.279 --> 00:13:25.840 about what he'll actually do and whether any of it 200 00:13:25.879 --> 00:13:29.679 is good. My prediction very little will be good. Some 201 00:13:29.759 --> 00:13:31.879 of it will be good, but very little will be good. 202 00:13:32.120 --> 00:13:34.639 And when it's good, I'll mention it. But right now, 203 00:13:35.120 --> 00:13:38.799 my prediction for the first ninety days, for the first 204 00:13:38.799 --> 00:13:42.080 one hundred days of his administration, most of it would 205 00:13:42.120 --> 00:13:42.799 be shitty. 206 00:13:43.200 --> 00:13:44.879 What choice did we have? I don't know. 207 00:13:44.960 --> 00:13:47.720 I don't care it's over, it's finished. Why are we 208 00:13:47.799 --> 00:13:51.840 hashing the past? Why why debate the past? We're debating 209 00:13:51.879 --> 00:13:54.480 the present in the future. That's what's important. The past 210 00:13:54.559 --> 00:13:57.480 is the past. It's over. He won. You guys got 211 00:13:57.519 --> 00:14:02.600 what you wanted. Yay, we're celebrating, and now we're talking 212 00:14:02.600 --> 00:14:08.039 about what will happen. I have no interest in rehashing 213 00:14:08.320 --> 00:14:10.919 who should have won the previous election, because it's irrelevant, 214 00:14:12.799 --> 00:14:18.840 not compared to the perfect. I'm comparing to Biden. Biden 215 00:14:18.960 --> 00:14:21.960 was horrible, terrible, one of the worst in all of history. 216 00:14:22.399 --> 00:14:27.159 I'm comparing to Biden. Will Donald Trump spend more or 217 00:14:27.279 --> 00:14:32.279 less money than Biden? And I'm gonna I'm my guess, 218 00:14:32.320 --> 00:14:35.000 and you guys can bet against me, and we can 219 00:14:35.440 --> 00:14:38.480 in four years, we can we can adjudicate this. My 220 00:14:38.559 --> 00:14:44.200 guess is he'll spend more. But you know what other 221 00:14:44.200 --> 00:14:45.879 predictions do you guys want? We can, we can do 222 00:14:45.919 --> 00:14:51.840 other predictions. That's fine. Will Will he raise tariffs? Yeah? 223 00:14:51.879 --> 00:14:55.039 He raised tariffs. Will that be bad for the US economy? Yes, 224 00:14:55.080 --> 00:14:56.759 that'll be bad for the US economy. He will raise 225 00:14:56.799 --> 00:15:02.000 tariffs h more than Biden did. Biden kept Trump's previous tariffs, 226 00:15:02.080 --> 00:15:07.519 raised some tariffs on on batteries and and I think, uh, 227 00:15:07.679 --> 00:15:11.840 solar panels, Trump will raise them even more. What other issues, 228 00:15:12.200 --> 00:15:15.159 you know, go fit whatever whatever you guys want. 229 00:15:16.679 --> 00:15:18.399 Will he go to war, No, he will not go 230 00:15:18.759 --> 00:15:19.720 You will not go to war. 231 00:15:21.639 --> 00:15:24.200 He won't exactly bring the troops home. He never has, 232 00:15:24.279 --> 00:15:27.080 but he's not going to go to war. He will 233 00:15:27.600 --> 00:15:30.279 let Ian be. He will negotiate a deal with Iran. 234 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:33.240 Who who else is there to go to war? 235 00:15:33.279 --> 00:15:33.480 Worth? 236 00:15:33.559 --> 00:15:39.279 He's not going to go to war with China, all right. 237 00:15:39.759 --> 00:15:43.200 So so that's what I think Trump will do. Uh, 238 00:15:43.519 --> 00:15:45.320 that's what I think he'll do in the first hundred days. 239 00:15:45.320 --> 00:15:48.639 I think a big focus in the first hundred days 240 00:15:48.679 --> 00:15:52.000 in terms of fun policy will be a deal with 241 00:15:52.039 --> 00:15:56.759 you on I think that he is very much aware 242 00:15:56.879 --> 00:16:00.519 that that a deal with Russia is not in the 243 00:16:00.559 --> 00:16:03.080 cards for the first one hundred days, so he'll probably 244 00:16:03.159 --> 00:16:04.720 let that one be for now. 245 00:16:05.639 --> 00:16:06.759 He will continue. 246 00:16:06.399 --> 00:16:11.200 To support Ukraine in spite of everybody's hating him on that, 247 00:16:12.320 --> 00:16:15.440 and and try to angle for some future deal with Russia. 248 00:16:16.120 --> 00:16:19.159 He will kind of deal. He will probably day one 249 00:16:19.200 --> 00:16:20.759 start negotiating with the Ranians. 250 00:16:23.519 --> 00:16:23.759 Yeah. 251 00:16:23.879 --> 00:16:25.879 That that that is that that is fall and policy. 252 00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:28.600 He will put a lot of pressure on Israel to 253 00:16:28.919 --> 00:16:29.679 kind of deal. 254 00:16:29.480 --> 00:16:30.799 With with Ramash. 255 00:16:31.480 --> 00:16:35.120 I don't not think Trump wants the war and gods 256 00:16:35.120 --> 00:16:39.320 that get reignited under his under his watch, I don't 257 00:16:39.360 --> 00:16:43.639 think he wants UH to see a war there. Once 258 00:16:43.919 --> 00:16:46.879 Phase one of the cease fire expires. I think he'll 259 00:16:46.919 --> 00:16:50.080 put a lot of pressure on the Israelis to negotiate 260 00:16:50.080 --> 00:16:53.799 a phase two, in a phase three. And yeah, I 261 00:16:53.799 --> 00:16:56.200 mean I don't think he wants wars. I think part 262 00:16:56.240 --> 00:16:59.799 of his stake again is no wars. Even if I 263 00:16:59.840 --> 00:17:02.480 have to sell out my allies, I don't want word 264 00:17:02.519 --> 00:17:03.840 was right, what. 265 00:17:03.720 --> 00:17:04.279 Would I do? 266 00:17:05.640 --> 00:17:07.799 And and and here the thing it's important to note 267 00:17:07.799 --> 00:17:10.680 that there's a real opportunity for Trump. 268 00:17:10.759 --> 00:17:13.880 I mean, if you paid any attention to serious people. 269 00:17:14.240 --> 00:17:15.640 Oh by the way, one of the things I do 270 00:17:15.720 --> 00:17:17.920 think will happen in the first hundred days, which is good. 271 00:17:18.359 --> 00:17:21.000 So this is the good is I do think you 272 00:17:21.039 --> 00:17:26.400 will get significant movement on energy right off the bat. 273 00:17:26.920 --> 00:17:31.759 I think the energy people are ready, you know, and 274 00:17:32.079 --> 00:17:33.680 they have a list of things they want to do, 275 00:17:34.160 --> 00:17:37.039 and I think they will do that very quickly. And 276 00:17:37.079 --> 00:17:42.079 I think on on energy, that is where the best 277 00:17:42.119 --> 00:17:44.960 stuff will happen on the Trump and it will happen 278 00:17:45.440 --> 00:17:48.039 really really fast. So and one hundred days will give 279 00:17:48.079 --> 00:17:51.400 them cover to do a lot of things that are exciting. 280 00:17:51.519 --> 00:17:55.839 It'll be interesting to see, for example, whether they approve 281 00:17:55.839 --> 00:17:59.440 offshore drilling or not. But there's plenty of oil and 282 00:17:59.519 --> 00:18:03.640 natural gas on shore, so we'll see, we'll see exactly 283 00:18:03.680 --> 00:18:06.680 what happens. As I mentioned, Alex Epstein, who's the sponsor 284 00:18:06.680 --> 00:18:10.920 of the show, has a twenty five point what should 285 00:18:10.960 --> 00:18:13.359 be done to liberate energy? You can find it on 286 00:18:13.400 --> 00:18:14.559 a substack. You should go. 287 00:18:14.519 --> 00:18:16.000 There, all right. 288 00:18:16.039 --> 00:18:19.319 So what I do if it was me in terms 289 00:18:19.319 --> 00:18:22.039 of this, because I do think that the first one 290 00:18:22.119 --> 00:18:26.160 hundred days on opportunity, particularly when there is a change 291 00:18:26.240 --> 00:18:30.319 from democratic Republican, would particularly when the Republican being elected 292 00:18:30.319 --> 00:18:35.640 in this case, Trump is coming in as a disruptor, 293 00:18:35.720 --> 00:18:38.119 as somebody who doesn't play by the rules, as somebody 294 00:18:38.119 --> 00:18:41.079 who might be doing things completely different, might be doing 295 00:18:41.160 --> 00:18:45.400 new things, exciting things, an agent of change. Well, then 296 00:18:45.519 --> 00:18:50.079 I would say, let's really change, let's do major change, 297 00:18:50.200 --> 00:18:54.720 let's embrace change. All right. So I'm going to go 298 00:18:54.839 --> 00:18:57.720 run down a few things and then open it up 299 00:18:57.799 --> 00:18:59.920 to your questions. 300 00:19:01.319 --> 00:19:02.640 Let's start with tax policy. 301 00:19:02.960 --> 00:19:06.559 Since taos are tax and let me just say a 302 00:19:06.599 --> 00:19:08.480 few things that I think should be done. It could 303 00:19:08.519 --> 00:19:12.680 be done on tax policy starting on day one of 304 00:19:13.039 --> 00:19:19.039 a new administration. So first thing I would do on 305 00:19:19.160 --> 00:19:26.559 day one is i'd signed executive vote. Again, assuming you 306 00:19:26.559 --> 00:19:29.000 could get here, I think the president can actually do 307 00:19:29.079 --> 00:19:29.839 this unilaterally. 308 00:19:29.880 --> 00:19:30.440 I think you can. 309 00:19:30.960 --> 00:19:33.480 I would sign an executive vote basically lowering tais to 310 00:19:33.640 --> 00:19:37.960 zero unilaterally across the entire United States on every single 311 00:19:38.039 --> 00:19:43.720 product that exists out there, so all products taris down 312 00:19:43.759 --> 00:19:46.319 to zero. You know, I probably phase it in a 313 00:19:46.319 --> 00:19:49.119 little bit, just I like giving people the opportunity to 314 00:19:49.240 --> 00:19:53.240 adjust so that it's not instantaneous and things get thrown 315 00:19:53.400 --> 00:19:56.759 off KILTA. But I would say within six months, this 316 00:19:56.799 --> 00:19:58.920 one's easy, and it's easy to do and it's quick. 317 00:19:59.119 --> 00:20:02.440 Within six months, all tariffs in the United States will 318 00:20:02.480 --> 00:20:05.039 be zero. I will be declaring the United States a 319 00:20:05.079 --> 00:20:10.000 free trade zone. A. Please bring your goods to the 320 00:20:10.079 --> 00:20:14.680 United States, try to sell them here. You know, we 321 00:20:14.720 --> 00:20:19.160 are open for business. I also make it incredibly easy 322 00:20:19.200 --> 00:20:23.880 to invest in the United States. Oh. One of the 323 00:20:23.880 --> 00:20:27.599 things I would immediately do is reverse the Biden administration's 324 00:20:27.599 --> 00:20:31.880 decision about Nipon steel. Let Nipon steel buy US steel 325 00:20:32.000 --> 00:20:34.799 and encourage farn companies to come to the United States 326 00:20:34.880 --> 00:20:43.640 and invest by buying. By buying US US companies unilaterally 327 00:20:43.680 --> 00:20:48.359 means that I would reduce tariffs coming into the United States, 328 00:20:48.400 --> 00:20:51.960 whether the countries that are exporting to the United States 329 00:20:51.960 --> 00:20:54.200 had tariffs or not, or reducing the traffs or not. 330 00:20:54.720 --> 00:20:59.039 So I would make the United States a zero tariff unilaterally, 331 00:20:59.200 --> 00:21:03.160 zero SERF country in the US. 332 00:21:03.240 --> 00:21:04.119 I would also. 333 00:21:06.359 --> 00:21:09.400 Immediately sign an executive order, and if not it couldn't 334 00:21:09.480 --> 00:21:14.720 actually do this by executive order, I would submit a simple, 335 00:21:15.359 --> 00:21:19.960 straightforward up and down vote quick vote bill that would 336 00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:25.319 basically repeal the Jones Act. So the Jones Act would 337 00:21:25.359 --> 00:21:30.839 be a major priority for appeal again, all in the name. 338 00:21:30.759 --> 00:21:32.559 Of just let's just simplify. 339 00:21:32.640 --> 00:21:35.359 Let's just get rid of the low hanging food, the 340 00:21:35.400 --> 00:21:38.640 stuff that we don't need. We don't need voters and 341 00:21:38.680 --> 00:21:44.400 customs and all of that overhead. We don't need tariffs. 342 00:21:44.440 --> 00:21:46.880 We want to compete with the world. We want our 343 00:21:46.920 --> 00:21:50.759 businesses here in the United States to go into complete 344 00:21:50.759 --> 00:21:54.839 competition with the world. We want a free flow. I 345 00:21:54.839 --> 00:21:56.640 mean I'm not quite ready to make a free flow 346 00:21:56.680 --> 00:21:59.319 of immigrants yet. We'll get to them and later, but 347 00:21:59.400 --> 00:22:01.920 I want at least free fow capital into the United States. 348 00:22:01.920 --> 00:22:05.920 It's already pretty easy to invest here, but the idea 349 00:22:06.000 --> 00:22:09.200 that Nipon steel can by US steel is a major 350 00:22:09.319 --> 00:22:11.680 deterrent for capital to be invested in the United States. 351 00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:13.240 So we want to get rid of that and reverse 352 00:22:13.319 --> 00:22:15.839 that on day one. So those are things day one 353 00:22:15.960 --> 00:22:19.799 Jones Act, a repeal of Jones Act, a reversal of 354 00:22:19.880 --> 00:22:23.680 Nipon Steele and h and tariffs down to zero within 355 00:22:23.720 --> 00:22:28.319 six months. Then I would sit down with congressional leaders 356 00:22:28.559 --> 00:22:34.759 and I would encourage them to adopt a straightforward, simple 357 00:22:34.960 --> 00:22:40.480 tax legislation. And that is legislation that's already available in 358 00:22:40.519 --> 00:22:41.599 the House of Representatives. 359 00:22:42.319 --> 00:22:46.000 UH, and it is the tax, the Fair tax. 360 00:22:46.960 --> 00:22:47.079 UH. 361 00:22:47.160 --> 00:22:53.559 The fair tax would basically abolish everything. It would the 362 00:22:53.559 --> 00:22:56.839 fittax would abolish the income tax, the state tax, the 363 00:22:56.880 --> 00:23:01.559 capital gains tax, the dividend tax, the corporate tax. Basically 364 00:23:02.400 --> 00:23:07.039 all taxes on income, all taxes on production, all taxes 365 00:23:07.200 --> 00:23:12.440 on actual productive activity would be abolished immediately, you know, 366 00:23:12.960 --> 00:23:16.680 with within a year. Over the next year, completely abolished 367 00:23:17.240 --> 00:23:22.279 all again income taxes, well taxes, all capital gains taxes, 368 00:23:22.400 --> 00:23:27.400 dividend taxes, maybe most importantly, corporate taxes would be down 369 00:23:27.440 --> 00:23:32.000 to zero, would be eliminated completely. And by the way, 370 00:23:32.079 --> 00:23:35.160 as soon as you zero out the corporate tax, all 371 00:23:35.200 --> 00:23:37.640 the subsidies that have to do with I don't know, 372 00:23:37.680 --> 00:23:41.759 accelerated depreciation and you can deduct this are indeed, but 373 00:23:41.799 --> 00:23:43.480 you can't deduct that, and you can do this, and 374 00:23:43.519 --> 00:23:46.039 you can do that. All the attempts by the government 375 00:23:46.079 --> 00:23:49.640 to manipulate businesses into doing what they'd like, All that 376 00:23:49.759 --> 00:23:51.799 is out the window because there's no taxes from which 377 00:23:51.799 --> 00:23:52.400 to deduct them. 378 00:23:52.480 --> 00:23:54.160 So all that is out the windows. 379 00:23:54.240 --> 00:23:59.599 So copate taxes zero. And then I would put in 380 00:23:59.599 --> 00:24:06.880 place a federal state sales or vat value added tax 381 00:24:07.400 --> 00:24:11.079 across the board in the United States, again getting rid 382 00:24:11.160 --> 00:24:18.839 of all production productive income taxes, and uh, making the 383 00:24:18.880 --> 00:24:22.559 only tax in the land at the federal level a 384 00:24:23.279 --> 00:24:29.759 tax on consumption. And I would make it on everything everything. 385 00:24:30.400 --> 00:24:33.680 I would make it flat, and I think this is 386 00:24:33.680 --> 00:24:36.680 what the fair tax have. I would not have any 387 00:24:36.799 --> 00:24:41.839 provisions for poor people for you know, for bread, for fruit, 388 00:24:42.119 --> 00:24:46.960 for vegetables. No, the taxes on everything everybody pays exactly 389 00:24:47.000 --> 00:24:49.960 the same rate. You don't want help bureaucracy figuring out 390 00:24:49.960 --> 00:24:52.720 what your income is and should you get money back 391 00:24:52.799 --> 00:24:55.160 or should you get money back, and everything you deal 392 00:24:55.160 --> 00:24:58.920 with you deal with welfare separately. The tax code is 393 00:24:58.960 --> 00:25:02.079 just about revenue, and it's flat, and it's the same 394 00:25:02.440 --> 00:25:05.799 you're wide about old people. Old people give them money. 395 00:25:06.160 --> 00:25:06.799 It's better. 396 00:25:07.119 --> 00:25:12.200 It's better generally to rate a check then to try 397 00:25:12.240 --> 00:25:14.799 to control prices or try to manipulate taxes, or try 398 00:25:14.839 --> 00:25:18.640 to use the tax system to redistribute wealth. Don't use 399 00:25:18.680 --> 00:25:22.799 taxes for anything other than one function, and then it's 400 00:25:22.839 --> 00:25:25.000 to bring in revenues to the government. That is the 401 00:25:25.039 --> 00:25:28.440