Speaker 1: The madness for the sadness. We're gonna get into it
here in just a little bit live from Las Vegas.
I'm here at the West Gate. No, I'm not in
the super Book yet. It's too loud down there for
me to get a live show John and John Murray
is watching soccer instead of letting me use his office
to film this. You guys get my crazy, hectic hotel room.
My friend Alex was out till four o'clock in the
morning with Tiesto at Live at the font Blue, So
if she happens to cruise by at eighty point in time,
please no judgment on my part. I was in bed
like a good little sports better because I cannot wait
to get into today's late The round of thirty two
favorites crushed yesterday. We saw some dogs coming in Thursday.
We've got Yanni, the Greek Ralph, Michaels Adam Trigger. We're
gonna go through all of the things you guys need
to know for Saturday and Sunday, because I'm going to
Luke hom tonight and there is a zero percent chance
now I'm doing a show this early West Coast time tomorrow.
Let's bring in VR. I saw him Thursday at the
Westgates super Book. We had the clubhouse. He brought Jackpot
and VR snuck out late. I had VCU I was
being a complete nutter monster. He then proceeds to tell
me this morning that was one of his only losses
this week. So I was very, very fortunate to be
able to cash that for not only my banker, but
also for my Calcutta because I got absolutely slaughtered yesterday.
Speaker 2: VR. I get what a difference a day makes for me.
I hope the internet seems to be cutting out. Let
me know if it's a problem. I'm like, what are
they doing after that big six? And now I crushed yesterday?
And if not for North Carolina, I'm still may a
Thursday because I'd be so far ahead right now, we'd
be really playing with house money because that was a
fine percent play and they really should have got there.
I'm the day actually winning one more game than I
lost anyway, but it just would have really springboarded us
into yesterday. That was perfect, perfect, perfect state select They've
ended up six and zero and I was ready to
send out at the end of the day Florida, but
it was my pride that didn't want to ruin the
perfect day. But luckily I have the steam sheet which
I was able to throw Florida in there for those
guys in Iowa, some of that late stuff that I
didn't want to spoil such a perfect day, to be
honest with you, a lot of stuff to get to today.
This is where it changes. Okay, now, thank you Kelly
for giving me the flora like she does. So I'm
just going to go off and share everything I can
with you guys. This is where it starts to change.
And between now and that final four weekend, you'll see
the betting seem to get stepping up. And this is
where they usually start doing the best as far as
sides and total results. Actually from the Sweet sixteen on,
if they're on a side of the total, you want
to be piggybacking it. They don't get involved a lappa.
When they do, they're usually gold. But because this is
where it starts to change again, I sound like a
broken record, but the public's mentality shifts and in the
first round they look for cinderellas, they look for dogs,
they look for upsets, and they're betting those big dogs.
They're betting those double digit dogs taking the plus money,
especially with some sportsbook out there willing to pay you
if your team gets out ahead, So they take the
dogs early on because all the talk coming into March madness,
who's this year Cinderella? What are the upsets? Who's going
to get ousted in the first round like North Carolina did?
That's what the talk is, So of course that's what
we look for, Cinderellas. That changes once we get to
the thirty two and on the favorites start being the
bias of the betters, just like the overs do. Where
early it's not the case. So what did the betting
synicts do? They did what they always do. They got
out ahead of the market on pretty much all these favorites.
And then what you got to look for is the
follow through or the buy back you know, slash middle
or even more gold if they come back the other
side heavy, you know five x ten exit where you
know it was manipulated and this is the right side.
Those are goal but you gotta follow the line to
see if that's what's going to happen. Because here's what
I have so far today. No steam sheets up, it's
not necessary. I have the steam room today. My subscribers
will get everything. Don't want to waste time having to
keep uploading stuff into the steam sheet today because again
time sensitive, a lot of things UFC college basketball, NBA
soccer will be coming through. But here's what we have.
Seven eighty eight Duke minus ten and a half that
got followed through. They bet them again today at eleven
and eleven and a half. Okay, those numbers are going
right now, but they also steamed the under one forty
at the opener. Well, they came back and went over
one thirty eight this morning. That's what you gotta be
careful of with those early moves. Seven eighty four Houston
minus ten, seven eighty eight Gonzaga minus five and a half,
seven eighty six, Arkansas minus eleven, Arkansas minus eleven and
a half, seven to seven to four Michigan State minus
the four seven ninety two Nevada minus seven and a half.
I know that's n it. Eight twenty Kentucky plus the
five and seven eighty one Nebraska plus the two and
a half were the only dogs I've seen so far.
And then also seven to seven nine under one fifty
one and a half VCU Illinois. So what's the big
takeaway favorite favorites, favorites. Why because that's exactly what the
betting public's gonna do. They're gonna look to get out
ahead on these favorites, the most one sided bets. So far,
it's early, but I can tell by the parlays. Here's
what's being parlay. Are you ready? They're parlang Michigan State, Duke, Michigan, Houston.
Those four right there, Michigan State, Michigan, Duke, and Houston.
That's the four team money line parlay that's being bet
over and over and over again. And then teams are
added to it, so they'll add a few more favorites
or a dog or two that they like, and the
one dog that's sticking out the most on those money
line parlays that they're actually taking like they're taking, like
you know, Michigan State minus two whatever on the money line,
Duke minus whatever, a thousand on the money line, Michigan
minus thousands on the money line, Houston minus thousands on
the money line, and then they'll take Texas, but plus
six and a half. They won't take the plus money
line on Texas. They want the six and a half.
So Texas plus six and a half is the one
sided dog that I'm seeing in a lot of those
money line parlays where this guy said, they're tying up
those favorites and they're betting every over, every single over
Saint Louis over Duke over Arkansas, over VCU over Louisville
over all four overs, and again most one sided bets.
Michigan State, Michigan, Duke, Houston, and Arkansas is starting to
pile up. And the reason Arkansas is piling up is
because it got steamed by sharp betters early at minus
eleven and the public's betting them as well. So I
hope my Internet was good and you guys got most
of that. Thank you Kelly for giving me the stage
like you do. And Geo just sitting buy and letting
me go. Take you love you, and you're gonna bounce
back and do some damage today tomorrow, don't you worry?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I'm just sitting here taking notes
like everybody else we are. It works out well for me.
I did get a text from Art to Caesar over
at the Westgate Superbook. So Arkansas Gonzaga Nebraska was played.
Here's the one that was interesting to me. You told
me they played the under. A group came in and
played the over one thirty eight and a half. Do
you think that that was maybe to dummy up the
market so they could come back on the under.
Speaker 2: I liked the I like the over myself, even though
it's public, just based on my power rating, I have
the game, so I kind of like the over one
thirty eight and I wouldn't have bet it. To be
honest with you, I'm not betting it. I'm not giving
it to subscribers or anything, but just based on that,
I lean over. But with the public betting over and
the first move under, that's a Fred flag. It's a
pass for me.
Speaker 1: Okay, So that's a just game. We're gonna look at,
maybe scratch off the list.
Speaker 2: I know about the connection, Hey.
Speaker 1: Listen, things happen. It could also be my Westgate connection.
I think it's okay. Though I'm right by the window.
Speaker 2: Should be right. You don't have those problems.
Speaker 1: You just never know. You never know, especially when you're
traveling into working remote. So shout out to wager Talk
for letting me be able to do that. Shout outs
to the comments section. Lots of great comments this morning,
almost a thousand of you I've already joined in here
the R before I let you leave anything else you
want to add, anything else you think guys need to
be looking at and even possibly for Sunday.
Speaker 2: Anything they want, any games. Hey, I'll tell you. Here's
what I got. Here's what I got. Yeah, I'll share
real quickly, an I, here's what I made. I made Dayton.
I don't know what the I'm not even looking what
the line is, but I can tell you what our
number is, Dayton minus four and one forty one and
a half. And then in the second game Nevada minus
eight and a half, nine closer to nine and one eight.
So I don't know if those lines give you any
kind of value there. I can also tell you I
did get down on Arkansas minus eleven because I made
that line fourteen based on my power ratings. What else
I can tell you is Michigan. All the public's wan
Saint louis like crazy, and I'm trying. I want to
find reasons to bet Michigan because the scientific schedule is
just so off and they have so many advantages offensively defensively.
But I can't get there because my power rating has
Michigan minors eleven and the line's like twelve, so it
would be my opinion. It would be me thinking because
of how the market looks, because of how the line moves,
and me wanting to bet Michigan, but I don't have
line value. That's where I'm stuck with some of these
where I like the side, but I just don't have
the line value to fire bet. So that's why in
the steam Room, I'm going to share every opinion I have.
That's why I'm doing it at ten am one pm Eastern,
So I'll give you my opinion on side in total
for every one of these games based on my power ratings,
so you could use it as you wish, But that's
where a couple of my lines are are accurate what
the market has, which isn't surprising. Line should be tight
this late all right?
Speaker 1: Steam room is just for subscribers today, correct? Real quick?
Speaker 3: VERR?
Speaker 1: Did you hear me? The steam Room is just for
subscribers today? Is that correct?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Okay, Gay, They're they're there for the guys that are
partner or not will be for the year. Yeah that
was okay? Anything anybody to navigate. We're up for the
year nicely. Sitting number two in podcasts.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, all right, No, I just was curious if
there was anything else you had to share.
Speaker 2: I have the March Madness package today, the Daily for Saturday.
I'm gonna fly. All my stuff is in there, and
the UFC packages up as well. If I find a
piece of gold, I'll put that over at Sports Memo
as well for seven dollars for you guys today. I
love that madness.
Speaker 1: Love that the gold is going over to the Sports
Memo marketplace. Guys, head over there. Everything seven bucks. It's
absolutely amazing. VR. Thank you for hanging out with us
here on this beautiful.
Speaker 2: Damage.
Speaker 1: I'll see everybody down there at the Westgate super Book
before I go to Luke. If I have a voice left,
shout out to VR. Make sure you guys check out
his steam room right here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
I just saw Dan Alexander, our producer, pop in. He
must not trust me. He probably doesn't know I am
a good little wager Talk worker and I went to
bed last night. Come on, Dan, we're gonna bring in
Ralph Michaels. Welcome in, Ralph. Good morning, Ralph. Sat by
the pool this week there in Florida. I'm very jealous.
I got to go to the pool for a little
bit yesterday with our good friend Jeff Petch, the Mad Russian.
We played some blackjack, We yelled at some college basketball
dogs that just collapsed in the second half. Fun was
had by all. Ralph, I wanted you to pop on today,
not only because we don't have Rob Veno, but because
I feel like I've been missing some of this TNA.
I get on the wager Talk YouTube channel and all
of a sudden, like, how did I miss this? How
did I miss this? On social media? You have put
out some amazing nuggets. Round by round today starts the
round of thirty two. What do you have for us?
Speaker 4: Well, first, Kelly, let's look at what happened round one.
First off, we shouldn't be surprised at favorites anymore. Four
years ago, the favorites in round one covered fifty six percent.
In twenty twenty three, they covered fifty six percent. Last
year they covered fifty nine point four percent. This year
they went eighteen and fourteen sixty two percent. So favorites
the last four year in round one and now fifty
seven percent. So get that out of your mind. That
five twelve scenarios are gone. Those nine eight scenarios are gone,
and we see you know, the Nines beat eight's all
four Nines won this year. That's the first time that's
ever happened in March Madness. But all of those lines
were within two points, so those aren't really upsets. It's
just the seting is bad from the committee. So don't
fall into the trap that just because the committee, who
knows nothing about betting, made a team that is a
higher seed should be a pick. Look at the lines
and don't look at the seeds. Over unders the last
three years have been significant unders, to the tune of
thirty four percent over fifty six percent under this year
Round one, nineteen and seventeen, they actually did have more
games go over day. So let's look since twenty twenty two,
what's happened In Round two? Kelly favorites have gone forty
nine point four percent, basically the Mendoza line, but over
unders in round two forty five and thirty four fifty
seven percent to the over. Why does that make sense? Well,
in round one, how many double digit favorites have we had?
Those coaches know they are going to play a much
better team in two days. So when they get to
the second half, they start pooling their starters. Now, the
better coaching staff takes over, they're better to implement a
game plan with only one day of rest, and there's
no need to rest starters because you're not playing again
to next Thursday or Friday. So again, it makes total
sense that Round two games have gone over the total.
But how about this tidbit, Kelly, when we look in
an round two games with a total over one forty three,
so we're eliminating the low totals the over under twenty
eight and thirteen sixty eight percent to the over. Since
twenty twenty in round two, if we have a round
two game with a total under one thirty four, those
games have gone seventeen and twenty one forty five percent
to the over, So fifty four percent to the over.
So what do we take out of it? Favorites, dogs,
do as you wish. Round two totals over one forty
three sixty eight percent to the over, Round two totals
under one forty three only forty five percent to the over.
Makes sense to you, Kelly?
Speaker 1: Nothing makes sense to me right now, Ralph, nothing.
Speaker 4: Nothing.
Speaker 1: I'm over here putting in some arts plays and right
as I put in that duke over one thirty eight
and a half, which is, by the way, is one
thirty nine and a half one forty. So if you
guys want to get it in, you're sitting here telling
me I need to be looking at maybe the under listen.
I feel a little defeated after yesterday, Ralph. I had
a really great Thursday. I had so much fun, and
then yesterday it just seemed like outside of cal Baptist,
which was great, that was my best bet on bet
on it, that was my biggest play yesterday. I was
very happy with their second half performance. Maszoo collapse in
the second half, Hofstra collapse in the second half. It
was just kind of one of those days. We were
just like, hey, is another dog ever gonna win a
game again? It just feels like that sin You know,
I tweeted, Cinderella isn't dead, but she's on live support.
Am I overreacting? You know?
Speaker 4: Again? I agree a lot with what VR is, But remember,
you know these seeds that are now lower seeds with
the transfer portal in the anill, they're much closer. The
one in sixteens aren't like the one in swell. The
one in sixteens are because the SWACK and the MEAC
teams from fifteen and above. It's a whole different scenario.
So you know. And by the way, Kelly, that play
on cal Baptist, that was my five percent winter last
night off of three and oh sweep. So I was
looking at halftime and I was ill, So, oh yeah,
I took my gummy, I went to sleep and what
a nice shock waking up a few hours learning. But
I'll tell you what, when you have guard play like
they have, you know, Dominique is amazing and a lot
of times I like taking a bigger dog that doesn't
shoot a lot of threes. If you have a point
and offensive point guard in the second half against a
big favorite, you get a lot of backdoor action. The
defenses are playing backups. They don't have the same cohesiveness.
They let the guys drive. They get to the fall
line a lot. So I like the dogs, the big
dogs early on that have those dynamic like cal Baptist has.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was that was wonderful. I did enjoy that.
I made the restaurant put the game on the TV.
Of course I did. I looked at the score and
I saw them only down seven, and I was like, okay, great,
well we gotta sweat this now because you're right just
like at you at half, I was like, all right,
I am done for the day. Ralph, What else do
you got going on over at wager Talk? Do you
have something for today up at sports Memo?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Let me hear a few more things that I have
real quick. Top three seeds in round two. Top three
seeds have been great in round one. In round two,
they've gone twenty seven and twenty seven against the spread.
But Kelly, you talked about the duke over in the
last four years. Round in round two, number one seeded
teams fifteen and four in the over runners seventy nine percent.
They might have been challenged in game one, but they
took off in round two. How about teams off of
win as an underdog. Teams that won as a dog
in round one are thirty eight fifty forty three percent
against the spread in round two, and if that team
is off a win as a dog of five or more,
only one team applies. That's high point. Those teams are
only thirteen and twenty two against the spread thirty seven
point one percent ats and a few more things I
want to share. If you in round one allowed under
fifty nine points and now you're a dog of six
or more like Texas A and m IS, those teams
have gone twenty seven and seven seventy nine percent against
the spread. And if you have a big favorite that
one but did not cover in round one, like Vanderbilt
Gonzaga Duke in Michigan, those teams have gone twenty four
and fourteen sixty three percent against the spread. And if
they're a favored in round two, those teams again Vanderbilt, Gonzaga,
Duke and Michigan have gone twenty one ten sixty eight
percent against the spread. I only have one March Madness
play today, Kelly. I'm not going to force action. It's
a strong four star again. I started March Madness two
and oh on Tuesday and Wednesday. Full disclosure, I went
oh to three round on Thursday. Yes, people were pissed
they signed up for the March Madness Special, but it's
a long tournament. Guys. We rebounded yesterday going three and
oh including a five percent win. Don't miss my big
four percent today, just twenty five dollars or the March
Madness Special still available wt Dot buzz backslash r M.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the March Madness Special is still available over at
wager Talk. One hundred and forty nine dollars gets you
through the national Championship. And if you're like me and
you're all over the place, you should definitely check out
flex Fix because then you can change your handicaper, figure
out who's hot, and you ride the hot hand. That's
what I personally for Ralph Michaels, you are the best.
Thank you for hanging out with us. Get back to
the pool, work on your tan. For me, I'm so jealous.
I can't wait to get back to the beautiful free
state of Florida at Cala Sports LV. If you guys
are looking for some stuff for Ralph, If you guys
haven't seen some of his shorts on the wager Talk
YouTube channel, he provides a ton of great info. I
think his other one just got ten thousand views.
Speaker 3: Yesterday.
Speaker 1: I was like, how come Ralph is the TikTok King
and I am not Adam Trigger. He's trying to be
the TikTok King. He's not yet, but he's working on it.
Speaker 3: Maybe he goes my Duke.
Speaker 5: My Duke videos got like one hundred and fifteen thousand views.
Speaker 3: Is that good? I think that's right.
Speaker 1: That's pretty good. That's pretty good. I think we can
I think we can agree. That's pretty good. No, Rob
Vino today, he is out here in Las Vegas. Somehow
he got to take the show off where I the
person with no voice, didn't get to go to Tiesta
last night and is here bright interly just for you guys.
So can you give me a thumbs up? Can you
give me a like? Can you tell me how much
you hate me in the comments section? It'll be like,
That'll be perfect, Trig. How is your March madness going
so far? I mentioned Thursday was great. I was a
beneficiary of some really good luck on BCU. I was
a beneficiary of some good luck with some other teams.
Late Friday was basically the opposite. Outside of cal Baptist
everything I had went to shit, and it went to
shit early and often talk to me about how your
week's going so far.
Speaker 5: So I can't complain about UCLA yesterday because I won
South Florida the exact same way on Thursday.
Speaker 3: So I'm not gonna do it.
Speaker 5: I'm not gonna complain about the Ucla minus five and
a half lost because I had the same exact win
with South Florida on Thursday, Kelly, I went ten and
one to finish out last week. So the fact that
I'm like seven and seven this week so far, I
can live with coming off of a week like that
I was.
Speaker 3: You know, obviously you don't want to give it back.
Speaker 5: I think That's where I'm at right now for this week,
seven and seven, first round of sixty four, the last
two days four and four, so.
Speaker 3: Kind of a wash.
Speaker 5: But I love I love this weekend slate, especially the
NI games we get the next two days, so hop
in with Rob and I. I haven't checked in on
how Rob is doing, but he's having a fantastic season.
And there you can still get both of our plays
for three days at a very low rate. It's the
double the Firepower CBV package that we've promoted all year,
and it's a great bang for your buck in terms
of like volume of plays. I've already got two four
percenters for today, and who knows, maybe I'll even share
one on the show. Probably gonna add something else. So yeah,
I'm looking forward to the weekend.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 1: Lots of love in the comment section. No, I'm in
my hotel room and that is the air conditioner. It's
one hundred degrees out here. I sweat, it's hot. I
got on sixty seven. Of course I do so. No,
it's not the shower anyway. You guys are funny. Yeah,
I cook it with Crisco this morning. Put some chriscal
so I can work on my tan. Maybe I'm gonna
go out by the pool. No, I h trigg. I
was just yesterday. It was just one of those days
where I was like, nothing is going right. I should
just stop gambling. And you get those moments in Vegas too,
because you spend the whole day in the sportsbook and
it's dark and it's gloomy, and you have a great day,
but you're still lacking some new vital nutrients to help
with your your your dopamine receptors. Let's get into some
of these games. You're welcome, David, you are very welcome.
I'm here for you, bright eyed and bushy tailed. Maybe
some bags under into my eyes. That being said, we're
gonna have a great show. We're gonna get into all
of your questions Saturday or Sunday, because we are not
gonna be here tomorrow, so let's get right into some
of these that I need to have starred. Right off
the top, we're going nine am, nine to fifteen Pacific, trig.
Let's talk about the Saint Louis Michigan game. I know
that VR said Saint louisis square, and I understand why
the sharp guy's playing the other side. But in the
round of thirty two, Michigan hasn't covered six straight games.
Michigan limped into the Big Dance as a one seed
against the spread. That is, they were free falling ats right.
Nobody wanted to touch this team. We look at their
final score from the other day because I believe they
did not cover. Correct, they did not cover against Howard.
I bet Michigan second half. So what I told VR
before we came on was we were sitting in the
clubhouse and I was like, every single favorite bet them,
a huge favorite. One, two, three seeds bet them in
the second half. The lone exception was I had Sienna,
but I bet at first. My buddy waited until Duke
went to minus four and a half and you could
have actually middled that second half. Also, shout out to
you for Cena that they helped me make a little
bit of coin in my Calcutta because they did cover
the spread. But back to Michigan not covering against Howard
unless you bet them in the second half, I don't
know if I trust this team. So as square dog
as Saint Louis might be, do we trust Michigan here
laying digits?
Speaker 5: I mean, listen, Michigan's an outstanding team. They're They're probably
gonna be in the mix in this tournament. It's somewhat
hard to see them losing this game, Kelly, but asking
them to cover twelve and a half when this team
really hasn't covered big spreads all year in a game
that's really not a great matchup for them. I'm on
the other side. I leaned toward the dog in this matchup.
So Saint Louis through playing through robbi Avilla is similar
to how Nebraska likes to attack. You go back to
the Michigan Nebraska game from earlier this year. Nebraska showed
up without two of their best players, as specifically, rink
Mass was one of the players that did not play
in that game. So rink Mast would be the would
be a better version of Robbie Avila in terms of
like playing that that hub dribble handoff type offense. Nebraska
went into an arbor nearly won that game. They were
actually a similar underdog on the road. I think they
were maybe catching eleven points there, and they led for
a long stretch in that game till Michigan ended up
taking over at the end, but but didn't win by
double digits, and they were down their two best players.
Arguably not only their two best players, but specifically masked
the most sort of integral to play that style.
Speaker 3: Saint Louis.
Speaker 5: I was at Saint Louis's regular season finale Fairfax Virginia
against George Mason Kelly. This team just looked uninterested. It
looked like they were gassed from the regular season. They
lost by thirty and even last week in the A
ten tournament, losing to date, and I don't think that
was a bad loss. Dayton's a very good team, but
still they really look like they were just tired. Against
Georgia on Thursday night, that was the best they've.
Speaker 3: Played all year.
Speaker 5: And I was at the Dayton game in Saint Louis
where they crushed them, and I think that was one
of their most impressive performances of the year. Saint Louis
looks re energized. They look like the team that we
all thought was elite in early January and going into
a ten play, and they played like Nebraska, a team
that gave Michigan trouble. So so I have I don't
know why you'd want to lay twelve and a half
here with Michigan unless you're just like, well, they're due
to cover at some point. But if you look at
what Michigan's done all year, Kelly, that hasn't been been
a great way to approach them, because there was a
stretch during conference play where they failed to cover in
seven or eight games. Very good team, way inflated by
the market. So it's twelve and a half with the
Billikens are past yeah.
Speaker 1: Down to eleven STLF here on the Odds logic screen.
So you snooze, you lose here on Saturday morning on
the West Coast. Now, you guys know why I love
the East Coast time zone so much because I actually
am an early bird there here I feel like I'm
like late to the party. Let's keep it going with
some of the square plays. According to VR, Louisville is
five and a half, yeah, five and a half. Pretty
much on the odd screen to Michigan State, VR said,
it's all Michigan State. Michigan State, I guess spread Michigan
State money line. This is a Louisville team that I
was kind of kicking myself. I know, you said you
liked USF, and when USF came out we did selection Sunday,
I said, Okay, I'm gonna bet it, and then I didn't,
and then the line kept dropping. And then on Thursday
I said, okay, I got a bet Louisville. Now I
have to yeah, and then Louisville's up huge in the
first half and I'm going, all right, well, can't bet
Louisville now. And so I kind of missed out on
what could have been a really nice middle for me
in that game. But Louisville's second half play kind of
had me a little like, oh, what are we missing here?
You know, we spoke about ACC teams and how I
was looking to fade them. Kind of thoughts on the
ACC outside of, of course, last night with Miami because
I needed Mazoo for Mike Alcutta. Outside of Miami one
in seven against the spread, the ACC is in this tournament.
Speaker 5: I don't like doing the conference thing. You know, Listen,
there was a couple of years ago, Kelly. One of
the first years, I think we were in Vegas when
everyone hated on the PAC twelve and then you had
like Oregon State making it to the Elite eight.
Speaker 3: USC made a run.
Speaker 5: Like the point is, it's in a bad year for
the ACC and like some of these teams aren't very good.
I talked about it earlier this week on wager Talk programming.
Speaker 3: I thought SMU was.
Speaker 5: Terrible and would get beat and they did, but but
you still got to go matchup by matchup, So I'm
not I don't like to go that angle where it's
like some other ACC teams lost. So we're just gonna
say that all of a sudden, Duke is no good,
or we're gonna say that Louisville can't win a game
just because they're like affiliated with that conference. Reality is, Kelly,
a lot of them have had matchups that that haven't
been ideal for them so far in this tournament, and
this would be another one where the matchup is not ideal.
So you said, Okay, well, Louisville they played good in
the first half, not in the second half. I don't
think they played differently in either half. The problem was
South Florida went five of thirty three from three. Okay,
this is a rim three South Florida team. Brian Hodgson
plays very much like Natoates. That's that's it comes from
the NATOATS coaching tree, and that is the way they play.
They want to take open threes and they straight up
just could not hit one of them. They just could
not buy one in the first half. Not to mention
they also missed four or five easy looks at the rim.
And even with the five of thirty three from three
and playing as bad as they did maybe all year,
one of their worst games in a while for that
USF team, they still came all the way back and
only lost. You know, we're able to cover the five
and a half. I think they lost by four. So
if you, yeah, if you had three and a half
with Louisville, you would have had a nice middle. Louisville
hit thirteen threes in that game, Kelly, So they shot
the ball. That that's what Louisville wants to do. So
what can Louisville do here to win? They could do
what they did and go thirteen for twenty five from three,
they'll be in the game. But the problem is here,
they're gonna have to face in Michigan State front court
that likely wears them down even more than South Florida did.
So I don't think this Louisville team is very good
in the final thing here. Kel The reason everyone's like,
oh Tom Izzo and March.
Speaker 3: Tom is O in March.
Speaker 5: That's a common thing you hear. It's because he's really
good at preparing on one day rest. So Izzo's been
great at the prep off of the win, and now
you've got forty eight hours to prepare for your opponent.
Pat Kelsey has not been good at that, And actually
I think Pat Kelsey has been a little outclassed since
he's come to the ACC.
Speaker 3: So I gotta side with the Spartans here.
Speaker 5: I just think that there's so many more advantages for
them in this matchup.
Speaker 1: All right, let's keep it going here, treg we only
got thirty minutes. We've got lots of games to get to. Texas.
Gonzaga is the next game. I'm gonna skip over Tcuduke.
We already talked about Duke being played as well as
the over being played and if you guys really want,
we can go over at text A and M Houston.
I don't really care about that game, but Texas Gonzaga
is really interesting. Ariel Epstein is texting me from the
other room saying I'm being too loud, and I said, yeah,
like you were at two thirty this morning. But anyway,
she said she's gonna use Gonzaga in her Splash Sports
Survivor Madness and I don't hate that. I think that
might be a good spot to use the Zags. I've
got four entries left. I think maybe I might put
the Zags in one of Texas getting a lot of
love here. Bre mentioned Square Dog. Everybody's betting them. Our
guy Trent, he's on him. The musch that I love
to fade, he's on him. Guess what. I think it's
enough Arts list Art said Sharp Group Gonzaga. I think
it's like it's like the trifecta to bet against Texas here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is uh.
Speaker 5: It kind of feels like where Texas runs out of gas,
like maybe literally and figured typically like they came in
they played in the in the first force, so they
had to win the game on Tuesday beat NC State.
They fall into like what ended up being a really
good matchup for them. I made the mistake of thinking
BYU might show up Kelly and be like a very
energized like version of like themselves from earlier in the season.
In the tournament, they just weren't. I mean, I'll give
credit where credit is due. I thought Texas had a
great game plan, they played a great game, but but
ultimately that b YU team just got worse and worse
all year, and then Richie Saunders went down and they
just weren't very good. So you know, Texas has to
turn around here. Now they're playing their third game in
the span of six days, and that's a real concern
for me. This Texas team does not have elite depth
in the front court. Outside of a Vocatitis, they are
pretty thin up there, and you really don't want to
get caught with their backup bigs against like grahamy K
and the and the Gonzaga front court, and Vocatitis has
really struggled to stay out of foul trouble at times
this year.
Speaker 3: So that's my concern for Texas here.
Speaker 5: E K is going to be able to draw fouls
As will the the you know, Gonzaga what they're gonna
throw it at Texas, you know, in the front court,
and if Vogatitis ends up in foul trouble, which theoretically
should happen when you're playing your third game in six days,
I think they could be at a pretty big disadvantage.
So Gonzaga probably wins a lot of the ISO matchups.
Here Texas, I think they kind of wear down. So
just the general theme of this game, Kelly, Texas is
gonna wear down. If they get in fil trouble, which
has been a problem for them this year, Gonzaga probably
pulls away. I made Gonzaga minus seven point eight. I may,
I may lay it.
Speaker 3: I haven't decided yet, but I'm there already.
Speaker 1: I played Zags yesterday. I saw a sharp group play it.
I joined in. I may add just a little bit
more today. All right, let's go to two games that
I care about. Because the chat is just they're chatting
themselves up. They're like, this is the best chat.
Speaker 3: Someone's like someone's like, Trad needs to hit the gym.
I'm done with that. Man.
Speaker 5: I ruined my body doing CrossFit for fifteen years.
Speaker 3: I don't know what that would look like.
Speaker 5: Now, I'm just gonna sit in my front of my
computer screen and try to find winners for you guys.
Speaker 1: How about Okay, there you go, all right, Kelly needs
to also hit the gym after after this week, I
will do so. Okay, let's go to a couple of
games that I care about. Because you guys aren't dropping
anything in the chat. Will you bet my future ex wife?
It depends on your net worth? I mean, otherwise, what's
the point of what's the point of being an ex wife? Like?
If you're not gonna get a take half? Oh bad jokes. Okay,
VCU Illinois. I got VCU and a calc cut. I
got very very very very lucky to have VCU in
that game in advance and make us a little bit
of coin for that. I need VCU to make a
run here because I'm afraid High Point is going to
get absolutely smoked today by Arkansas. We'll get into that
game here in a minute. Talk to me about this
VCU Illinois matchup trick. If you remember on selection Sunday,
a lot of us were saying, well, I would say
it was half of us. We're saying that we weren't
that high on Illinois. Illinois looked pretty good on Thursday.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, you know, they did look good, but I
think some of that had to do with Penn not
having Ethan Roberts TJ power being sick like its big
Yale win.
Speaker 3: Coming off the Big Yale when yeah, ivy badness.
Speaker 5: Two games in two days, and they were like two
sort of like barn Burner type games for Penn. So yeah,
I mean, you know, Illinois did look good in that game,
but I.
Speaker 3: Think it was a pretty pretty favorable matchup for them.
Speaker 5: This one's tough for me, Kelly, because I make the
number eight and a half, so my number shows a
little value to VCU. But my handicap says Illinois probably
destroys them. Probably looks something like the North Carolina game
before the comeback, without the comeback. Right, So VCU is
down nineteen North Carolina. You can blame you know, some
coaching whatever, whatever it may be. I think North Carolina
should have been able to find a way to hold
a nineteen point lead, But tip the cap to VCU.
They came back, made plays, got back in the game,
got it to overtime, won the game. If they fall behind,
the Illinois I just I just don't think that's going
to be the case because when push comes to shove,
Illinois they have a lead.
Speaker 3: VCU's making a run.
Speaker 5: I just think there's too many, like one v one
good options here for Illinois to score points and just
sort of like keep them at arm's length. So could
you cover ten and a half with VCU? Of course,
like that's I think the books. This is a scenario
where I think the books are really making you pay
a tax to back Illinois, because again my number comes
out eight and a half, and you know, I think
ten and a half is big, but I kind of
think it's big for a reason, so that I don't
really have like a great way to you know, I
think I used Illinois and some Survivor.
Speaker 3: I think that's what I'll say about this one.
Speaker 5: I think it's a good spot to use Illinois in
Survivor because you're getting like a ten and a half
point favor. I don't know how much value Illinois has
in later rounds in this tournament, but like as far
as an outright up sept for VSU, I don't see it.
Could I see them covering yeah, because I think the
spread is about two points off. But if you forced
a lean out of me here, I think I'd say
Illinois just kind of dominates.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about another game. Art said that
a sharp group or two played in Nebraska. Everybody loves Nebraska, trig,
and that is a concern for me. Again, when everybody
loves a dog, it's kind of just one of those
things where you're like, all right, this isn't a great spot.
I hate this for me, it is what it is.
I actually have no real opinion on this game. I
thought Nebraska looked rather impressive, right, I know everybody liked Troy,
and I'm sitting there at the clubhouse, me, Sammy pe
Bunch of the Wager Talk guys Sean Higgs from Picks
and Parlays, and I look over and I'm like, seventeen seventeen, Damn,
Troy's hanging tough because you know, you got the big setups, right,
bunch of different TVs. And I was very focused on
a different game at that point in time. I was
focused on High Point and I look back over and
Nebraska is just kicking their asses like out of nowhere.
That game shifted. So I apologize for not knowing why,
but I don't know if Troy just couldn't hang outside
of that first ten minutes or what that was, or
if this Nebraska team's a real deal. I mean back
in November when they beat my Kansas State Wildscats, I said, Wow,
this is a really good Nebraska team. And then we
saw how Kseate ended up and I thought, eh, maybe
that win was not as prevalent as I once thought.
Speaker 3: Yeah, listen, like you know that was.
Speaker 5: I think we talked about Troy Nebraska on the selection
show in the when the pairings first came out, and
for me, I kind of like shied away from that one.
As the week went on, looked like Nebraska would get
the shots they wanted off against Troy's defense, And that's
ultimately what I think happened was Nebraska just generated so
many good looks over forty minutes that Troy couldn't keep up.
This is to me one of the more interesting games
of today in terms of like, I really think there's
a way to make a case for both sides here. Listen,
you've got Nebraska Kelly playing in Oklahoma City.
Speaker 3: They showed up with a ton of fans in the
first round.
Speaker 5: It's probably gonna be a pro Nebraska crowd here for
this game, gonna have a lot of Nebraska fans in
the building, But like, I don't know that this is
like the.
Speaker 3: Best matchup for them.
Speaker 5: Vandy's got two guards Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner that
are absolutely able to win one on one matchups against
Nebraska's guards. Get in the paint, make plays, get to
the rims. So it's like I really had a tough
time with like I actually my number. So the betting
market in this one has played this a couple different ways.
They bet Nebraska at one point, and this is like
where I wish we'd still had Gianni on the show
because he would be able to really like tell you
exactly what happened. But they bet Nebraska down to like
minus one and a half. It came back the other way.
Vandy took some money now up to two and a half.
I kind of agree with the Vanderbilt money kel you know,
getting bet down now bet up to two and a half.
Speaker 3: I made the number Vandy minus three.
Speaker 5: Point one, And I guess it comes down to how
much stock you're gonna put into a little bit of
home court at the Paycom Center for Nebraska. Yes, they're
gonna have a lot of fans in attendance, But I
don't know that I put like too many points on
the number for that for them, and maybe.
Speaker 3: I'm wrong about that. I don't know. That's not one.
Speaker 5: I mean, I remember Syracuse getting to play in Albany
back in two thousand and three, and it was a
home court advantage for sure, Like without a doubt it
was all Q's fans. So maybe I should put more
stock into the fact that it's gonna be very pro
Nebraska crowd. But man, I love that backcourt for Vandy,
and I think Miles and Tanner could be a real
issue here.
Speaker 3: So one of the tougher ones of the day for me.
That's all I look in.
Speaker 1: I'm looking. I know you were looking for VR to
ask what he was seeing, So I did look up,
John Ewing, Ninety three percent of the tickets are on
Michigan State, ninety one percent on Duke, eighty seven percent
on Houston, eighty one percent on Arkansas, seventy one percent
on Texas. Texas is the lone dog, sixty six percent
on Illinois. Those are the most popular bets over at
bet MGM, according to John Ewing, shout out to him
for putting those kinds of things out because I do
find it intriguing. Right, I get some insight from the
super book from Circa and free others, so to see
what MGM has. We know that that is a square book.
That's why I like to have it on my Odds
Logic screen up in present because I want to know
who's betting what. I can't believe it I should after
yesterday's chockfest. Of course everybody is betting those guys. BR
mentioned there's gonna be a bunch of moneyline parlays with three,
four or five of those teams. Let's talk about my
other Calcutta team because I need some positivity this morning.
Trig High Point. Arkansas High Point just absolutely played their
hearts out right. You could just tell they wanted it
more than Wisconsin. I watched that game start to finish.
They were so much fun that I called my Calcutta
partners after to Margaritas on FaceTime and neither one of
the mansered. Shocking, but it was just an awesome way
to start the tournament. To cash that, to get that
team on the money line was amazing. Arkansas, though, was
the team on selection Sunday. You said at sixty to one,
I think there's some value for them to win the
whole thing. Talk to me about this game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I dressed to talk about this game.
Speaker 5: I showed up in my high Point zip up that
I got when I was down at the Cubane Center
last year.
Speaker 3: I have to rep the you know, I saw your
tweet earlier.
Speaker 5: You know there's only a couple of mid majors left,
and as a mid major guy, I gotta you know,
this might be the last weekend of mid majors if
a high Point or a VCU or someone doesn't win.
But Kelly, listen, high Points not in a horrible spot here,
and this game is gonna be super high variants.
Speaker 3: You have a total of one sixty nine and a
half and you're probably gonna see points.
Speaker 5: And there are ways like they're like, if you want
to just do a quick comparison, I think there's more
of a path to victory here for high Point than
there is for VCU. Why is that, Well, high Point
is gonna They're just gonna chuck for a lot of
this game.
Speaker 3: They're gonna take a lot of threes and.
Speaker 5: They can make them so again, you look at you
look at a game with a total of one sixty nine,
I kind of think it goes over even though that
number is big and and it could be a high
variance type game. Kind of think like Arkansas All Miss
from the uh you know, from the SEC tournament. I
was on Ole Miss in a similar spread range and
they just kind of went bombs away. They just got
as many shots up as they could and they ended
up hanging around with Arkansas in that game. You talk
about Arkansas and me said, you know, I pointed out, Yeah,
I think there's value at sixty to one.
Speaker 3: There absolutely is.
Speaker 5: But Kelly, like, this is not the team that I
want to be laying eleven or twelve points with on
a quick turnaround. John Caliperry, for as good of a
coach as he is, is not the best prep coach.
He's not the best on turning around and preparing for
an opponent, especially when he's not super familiar with on
forty eight hours rest. And that's what Arkansas is gonna
have to do here. Combine that with the fact that
there is some youth on this team, they're a little
bit young, that that could be an issue in this
quick turnaround. Now, what Arkansas is as opposed to Wisconsin,
the team that High Point just beat is super athletic.
Arkansas is so much more athletic than Wisconsin is.
Speaker 3: Could that bother high Point? Yeah? Probably could.
Speaker 5: But again I think High Point's going to be trying
to get into their offense, shoot threes and then forrest turnovers.
So you know, Arkansas. I love Darius Akoff, He's an
electric guard. But like if Arkansas is not fully ready, here,
cal and high Point can force some turnovers, which they
are as good as anyone in the mid major, any
mid major forcing turnovers and turning it in the offense.
On the other end, they can hang around here, and
I think for a pick in this game, I'll say
over one sixty nine and a half because I think
you're gonna have a lot of points.
Speaker 3: Arkansas might get to the rim at will here.
Speaker 5: You think you're gonna have a lot of points both ways,
but don't count high Point out.
Speaker 3: They could be the story this year.
Speaker 5: This is not the worst matchup for them, and they
can score, So I be this might be your your
ticket right here.
Speaker 1: I don't know, Hi, I just looked at some of
the calculations. I hope that the chat's right, that maybe
Illinois does have the flu. I don't know. I didn't
see anything on social media, but boy, would that be
a nice bailout for your girl. Rob Bino just text us,
he said, if you guys are given out a parlay,
I like Dandy minus one and a half. Well, I
didn't know we're giving out of parlaying out parlay.
Speaker 3: I know, no, that's listen. I'm glad Rob.
Speaker 5: I'm glad Rob chimed in there because we just talked
Nebraska Vandy.
Speaker 3: I feel like we didn't really have a strong game
on that game.
Speaker 5: Now we'll use the money line for the parlay. That's
all right, all right, I'm actually glad. I'm glad Rob
chimed in with that. I don't know if that'll like
make my card or anything, but I certainly I guess
I lean with him.
Speaker 3: I wasn't sure what I wanted to do.
Speaker 5: I said my number was Vandy minus three point one,
so I can get down with that.
Speaker 3: We'll use Vandy for the parlay for rob.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, go ahead and give yours out? And uh,
do I have to use a Saturday game or can
I use a Sunday game.
Speaker 3: I guess you could use a Sunday game if you want, I.
Speaker 1: Might use a Sunday game.
Speaker 3: All right, all right, I will you want me to
go first?
Speaker 5: Yes, okay, So I'm gonna go to one of the
n I T games tonight that I'm interested in. I
heard Gianni bring it up that he makes the number
Dayton minus four in that game, and I'm really hoping that, uh,
maybe it gets to minus because I like UNC Wilmington here,
but four would be kind of like the point I
would play it. So for our parlay, we'll use threes
because the threes are popping out, but maybe it will
get to four to four and a half and I'll
add it for clients. So why do I like Wilmington here, Kelly, Well,
first of all, they're the home team, Dayton is the
higher seed. But of course the play and round being
at Dayton displaced Dayton for being able to host games
in the NIT. So what that means for them is
they had to go out to Bradley Peoria, Illinois play
a midweek game, and now they've got to stay on
the road and go to Wilmington, North Carolina Trass Coliseum.
I was just there where Wilmington is fifty two and
thirteen straight up the last five years at Trass Coliseum.
It is an electric venue, great home atmosphere. I was
at the season finale when they lost to Charleston and Siddle.
Their head coach got on the mic, thanked all the
fans who basically stayed around to listen to what he
had to say, and said, you know what, don't worry
about it. We're going to go and win the CAA
tournament and we're gonna get back to the NCAA Tournament.
And that ultimately didn't happen. Okay, we know that Wilmington
ended up getting upset in their conference tournament. I don't
think they wanted to be in the NIT. Obviously, no
one does when you're but when you're in a one
big league, when you're a team like Wilmington, you kind
of accept the fact that, hey, if it doesn't work
out in our conference tournament, we're not gonna go and
we're gonna have to go to the NIT. They look
fired up to play earlier this week. They go into
Yale get a great upset win. I think Wilmington really
cares about this tournament, whereas like Dayton. They were one
win away from the NCAA Tournament and lost to VCU,
so it's not that they don't care, but Bradley wasn't
really ready to play earlier this week, so they kind
of just walked through that game. They're gonna get a
Wilmington team that is absolutely ready to play tonight, that's
gonna probably have a pretty close to sold out crowd
in the fifty five hundred seat Trash Coliseum, that has
a really good front line that's gonna put a lot
pressure on their bigs. And that's fifty two and thirteen
straight up at home the last five years, So I
think Wilmington probably should be closer to pick. Now that
it's three, it's caught my attention. Get me to four,
it's probably a client play, so I'll throw Wilmington plus
three in the parlay.
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna start us off on the Sunday games.
If you guys have a question about a Sunday game,
drop it in the chat and trigger and I'll get
to We got ten minutes. I got another live show
at nine am, so we got about nine and a
half minutes left, So I'll go quick. Iowa State minus
five and a half for me tomorrow. This is a
Kentucky team that I sat right there yesterday morning in
the super Book Santa Clara plus three in pocket with
my guys from South Carolina watching the early game before
we headed over to the wind to see the mad Rush,
and boy was that insane. Kentucky needed every bit of
that miracle. Even with the minute left Santa Clara up one,
that final result was not actually indicative of how that
game was played out. So I am fading the Kentucky Wildcats.
I am taking my national champion, the Iowa S eight Cyclones,
with that top five rated defense, that three point shooting
firepower to just absolutely wax this Kentucky Wildcats team late.
The five and a half still available right now all
across the Odds launch screen, Odds Logic screen. Excuse me
this morning. I think this one's gonna go to six
here shortly, and it's probably gonna only go one way,
because everybody's gonna agree with me that Kentucky probably didn't
deserve to win that basketball game, all right? Any thoughts
on Saint John's Kansas Craig wants to know here. This
is another one I looked at. I bet against Kansas yesterday.
Cal Baptist was my lone bright spot. Great second half
by them. I didn't know anything about cal Baptists. If
you remember Trigg, we talked about it on Selection Sunday
and I immediately said, this is a lot of points
for a Kansas team that has not been impressive to me.
And Rob said, hey, cal be careful. Darren Peterson's gonna
have to show out to get that number one overall pick.
And I said, Nah, that guy hasn't played basketball all year.
Speaker 5: Yeah, listen, Saint John's really impressed me yesterday. They were
you know, that was a matchup that I didn't think
was great for them when the pairings were announced, I
thought Northern Iowa could could give them trouble in the
respect that it's like just not the game they really
wanted to play. But man, Saint John's came right out
of the gate, tons of energy, built up a lead
and never really gave it back. And I think that's
so key for like how you're evaluating Saint John's, Because
when Saint John's, when their defense is plays the way
they did yesterday, they're flying all the floor, tons of
ball pressure and they're creating turnovers. That team's gonna be
a tough out. And I just like, if they show
up like that tomorrow, they'll beat Kansas. If they show
up like that Kelly in the sweet sixteen, they'll beat Duke.
So it's like, I'm kind of like, I don't really
want to bet against Saint John's right now because what
we've now seen the last two times they've stepped on
the floor bigiest Championship game where they just bludgeoned Yukon,
And that's now the second time they done that to
Yukon this year. The first time was at the Garden
earlier this year where they pressured the heck out of
Yukon's guards and they really couldn't get into their offense.
They do it again in the biggiest championship game, come
right back out last night. Northern Iowa had no chance,
Like from the tip off ten thirteen nothing, Saint John's,
Northern Iowa had no chance.
Speaker 3: And it's all goes.
Speaker 1: Chances And I was on that no chance and it all.
Speaker 5: It all goes back to their ball, pressure, their defense,
and then their defense creating the offense.
Speaker 3: Can they do that against Kansas?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I don't see why not Kansas.
Speaker 5: Kansas started to struggle with cal Baptist, who has a
great sort of defensive game plan as well. That's sort
of how they go into that game, and they got
it going in the second half.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I Kansas is probably vulnerable there.
Speaker 1: All right, lots of guys are asking about Texas Tech Bama.
I want to get through as many of these as
we can trick, So give me some rapid fire thoughts
on this one current line. Excuse me, this is the
late game tomorrow. Texas Tech is a one and a
half point favorite. WHOA that one is getting a lot
of Texas Tech love. I got Texas Tech fifty to one,
two in the whole thing, they're not going to I know.
I screwed up on the Kelly Murgy Show. I said
Obi Toppin Trigg blonde moment, tired moment, JT Toppin gets hurt,
and I knew that fifty to one was dead on arrival,
not gonna lie. Yesterday, I was like, wait a minute,
Ariel and I have Texas Tech fifty to one, and
bocket should I should I go ahead and hamper those expectations.
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 5: And you know what's funny, Like you know I know
Iowa State picked up a tough injury to yesterday with
Jefferson getting hurt, But like just to talk about the
Big Twelve in general for a minute, because this was
something I brought up earlier this week. I think because
if you watched Big twelve basketball this year and had
every team sort of go through the Big Twelve gauntlet
that they went through, I think there's three teams right
now out of the Big twelve that I think are
are very underrated in terms of like they could all
end up in a Final four. And those three teams
are Iowa State, which I would have liked the lit
more prior to to Jefferson getting hurt, Texas Tech in Houston,
Kansas gets love for being Kansas, and they're the one
I would throw out, And of course Arizona is the one.
Speaker 3: That everyone's putting in the final for.
Speaker 5: But man, Texas, like they do lack size, so that's
the thing top and being out kills some of their size.
But I mean the guards they have are outstanding. They
you know, they they still have a great scoring back court.
Now Bam is going to go to the rim that
could that could give them some trouble. I suppose, but
Bam is also going to take a lot of three
point shots, and it's like this is still a winnable
game for them. And I wouldn't count Texas tech out
in any game they play the rest of the way.
I guess that's the point I was trying to make
Kelly for the Sunday games. Like right now, I see
a lot of people asking about n I T stuff
in the chat. I feel like, if you if you
want me to go rapid fire, I can probably answer
about five of their questions real quick, because like that,
that's where a lot of questions you trig.
Speaker 1: You got there. For the next three minutes and fifty seconds.
Speaker 5: That's plenty of time to get through the the NIT
for today and tomorrow. So here's the deal with the
n I T first round. We talked about it on
Full Court Press. It's almost like bowl season for football.
You got to know who's playing who's not, And we
track this on our show. Sure enough, a lot of
the teams that advanced were teams that were at full
strength taking it seriously. A lot of the teams that
lost had guys out or you know, would just for
one reason or another, were in tough travel and they
ended up losing the game. So I already pointed out
a tough travel spot for you with Dayton going from
Peoria to Wilmington. The other one tonight. That there's one
tonight and we'll go to the Sunday games. Liberty Nevada
tonight is interesting because because Methanie is out for Liberty
is their best player. He didn't matter against George Mason,
who also didn't seem to be taking this tournament seriously.
Speaker 3: But now they've got to go all the way out
to Reno.
Speaker 5: He might matter a little bit here in Nevada certainly
seems to be taking this tournament seriously. I saw Nevada
take a little bit of money this morning. However, that's
now up to like eight and a half or nine
that there's a point where I think you could punch
back at that with Liberty. I think that point would
be ten tomorrow's game. So I saw someone in the
chat ask about Wichita State.
Speaker 3: They were one.
Speaker 5: So they showed up full strength and they certainly were
there to win their game, and they did. But I
need to know the status of will Burg for that game.
Speaker 3: He left with an injury.
Speaker 5: Now they're going to play an Oklahoma State team that
had guys out for discipline. Oklahoma State was without four
starters against Davidson. Now, one of them we know was Parsifala,
he's done for the year, he blew out his knees,
done for the year. But Anthony Roy not playing, and
then two of their other starters of Victorious Miller and
the other name is escaping me.
Speaker 3: We're disciplinary reasons. So what I'd be looking for with.
Speaker 5: Oklahoma State is are those guys back? My gut says yes.
And then of course the status of Wilburg for Wichita State.
I think that really you have to know those things
before you know what to do with Wichita State Oklahoma State.
So that's one to look at for tomorrow. What I'm
interested in tomorrow Tulsa UNLV. David Green did not play
for Tulsa earlier this week. David Green is Tulsa's best player.
He is their main sort of like physical presence in
the paint and he's just there all around best player
by a wide margin. They snuck by Steven F. Austin
earlier this week. Without him, they are now going to
be a four and a half point favorite against a
UNLB team that A.
Speaker 3: They all showed up.
Speaker 5: Josh Pastor had his whole team there, and b Pasner
did an interview after they lost and was pretty excited
about getting his team to play in this tournament. And
I was just hoping UNLV would have everyone there. They
did against Irvine. They went on the road and be
a good Irvine team. I don't know that they should
be a four and a half point dog if Tulsa
shows up without David Green, which again is probably likely.
Speaker 3: He's not going to play if he didn't play the
other day. So those are some thoughts.
Speaker 5: The final one I'll leave you with Saint Joe's looked
really good against Colorado State. They're a six point dog
tomorrow against California. I would not I would not be
surprised if they won that game out right, all.
Speaker 1: Right, the chat has been really funny. I was reading
the chat while you were talking about an IT because
I don't care about the n IT unless.
Speaker 5: Of course that's but if you care about making money,
those are the games you probably want to bet.
Speaker 1: Ah, you're probably correct. You're probably correct. I'm just teasing Trig.
We all know that that's part of the whole show.
Stitch shout out to all of you guys for hanging
out with us here on last call. Trig Iowa State, Vanderbilt.
Speaker 2: And you and C.
Speaker 1: Wilmington is our parlay.
Speaker 3: That's our parlay.
Speaker 5: Vandy will go money line Iowa State minus five and
a half, Wilmington plus three.
Speaker 1: All right, good luck to us, Good out to all
of you guys. Thank you guys again for hanging out
with us here on last call. Adam Trigger, hope you
have a wonderful day. I plan to do the same.
Speaker 4: Two