Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It is Monday. Full Court
Press is back after the holiday break, Rob, you know,
I hope everyone had a good holiday. College basketball gets
a little bit of a break over the over over
Christmas now, especially now that the Diamond Head Classic is
no more so that you know, that used to be
a nice little kind of standalone event on Christmas. They've
done away with it. And what that means is it's
like it's dark for like four days, but we come
back over the weekend. Yesterday was the first really slate
of games since Tuesday and then Rob, I was just
talking to you off the off camera. This is a
great Monday slate. There's way more games today than I
kind of anticipated, and we're here to break them down.
Speaker 2: Yeah, some conference seasons kick in, got some strange non
conference matchups, but certainly it's extensive. I mean, the extra
board is absolutely loaded on top of the regular boards.
So everybody trying to get their New Year's Eve games
in before New Year's Eve, so these kids can party
a little bit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, for me, the focus from this point forward will
be on conference play. I always find like this week,
if you're still playing non conference games, you're usually like
you know, like the Minnesota Fairley Dickinson games hit today
where it's like kind of a tune up. It maybe
just didn't fit in your schedule. You'll see some You'll
see some like that, like Dartmouth, Florida. Those are like
tune up games for conference play. So I tend to
stay away from the non con in like this week
because of I'm trying to figure out who's focused who
is not focused. But there is a very intriguing one
today that I've decided to make our feature game, and
that is because Yale is historically good this season, they're
eleven and one. They probably are kicking themselves. They probably
think that they should could or should be twelve to oh.
One loss was to Rhode Island in a game that
they were a pretty big favorite. But nonetheless, Yale's eleven
and one, and they come in with an opportunity here
where if they were to win this game, even in
today's NCAAA landscape where they want to do everything imaginable
to make sure that a team like Yale has to
win their conference tournament to get in rob if they
somehow pulled the upset here, I think you'd have to
consider them. I think they'd have to have a real
case at an at large bid, but easier said than done. Right,
seventeen point spread Yale Alabama. Do you think the Bulldogs
have any shot tonight?
Speaker 2: Well, I think under James Jones, you always give them
a shot. I mean, we've seen them in NCAA tournament action,
in some non conference action be very competitive against teams
that maybe they weren't expected to be competitive. I think
this game is a little bit funny, Adam, because generally,
when I handy icap a game and feel like one
team can make the other team uncomfortable, it's because they're
either really good defensively or because they slow down the tempo.
And here, I don't think Yale can make Alabama's offense
uncomfortable at all. I don't think they do anything that's
gonna make Alabama's offense not run high octane the way
it always does. Where they make Alabama uncomfortable, I think
is in their shot making and their ability to keep
pace Alabama. We've seen Natoates a couple of times this
year call out his team for lack of defensive effort,
for lack of rebounding effort. Yale, certainly, albeit against a
much much lighter schedule. I have Alabama's strength of schedule
get rated as toughest in the country up to this point.
Yale not quite that. In fact, the only comp game
I found for Alabama stylistically is the Akron game, which
Yale won ninety seven to ninety four, which shows you
that Yale will go with a ninety four foot basketball team.
They'll make their shots, You'll probably make theirs. I kind
of see this thing the same way. Alabama's not going
to be denied on the scoreboard. But I think even
though Yale has to at this point, at this point,
they have to come with somewhat of a reputation as
being a pretty good mid major. But when this team
shows up in Alabama, I don't know if the Alabama
players see it that way. You know, they just think
they're gonna steamroll Yale. And then you get involved in
the game and Yale's sinking threes, and Yale's getting to
the rim, and all of a sudden, you're in a
high scoring, tough game. So total here one seventy five,
when seventy five and a half, excuse me, probably appropriate
for this contest could get above that number? We do
see some money. And we often say on this show,
the hour that we do this show between ten am
and eleven am Eastern Time, we see line movement, and
we're seeing it right now as we speak, as Alabama's
been bet down from seventeen to only sixteen and a
half point favorites, I can see it. I would probably
prefer to be on the total in some way, shape
or form. It would not surprise me if Yale was
able to get to eighty points here their team totally
seventy nine and a half wouldn't surprise me since Akron
got to ninety four, that Alabama could get to ninety six.
I think I wouldn't want to exclude either team from
this total. So I think my lean and I haven't
played it, and I may not play it at all,
but I think my lean would be towards over here.
I just think Alabama's gonna be somewhat shocked, no matter
what Natos might tell his team, I think it gonna
be somewhat shocked at how Yale can score the basketball.
I don't think Alabama does enough defensively to stop them
from doing that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what ultimately I think is going to keep me
off of this game. So first, just from a betting standpoint,
my number came out about where this opened. I was
at seventeen, so seventeen and a half. I didn't see
like a huge numerical edge on the number, you know, Rob,
if someone's gonna you know, I want to make a
case for like an an IVY League team against a
team like Alabama. And I've had good luck playing Yale
in spots like this over the years. Makes me think
of that Auburn game in the NCAA tournament where they
came out and won. But the concern I have for
Yale is this, and I someone in the chat, our
chat smartest chat in the in any of these shows,
I'll watch some of them. What our competitors do? I
think our chat is the smartest in terms of like
what you know someone's all over at. Yale hasn't been
on the road since November eleventh. Okay, a true roague game.
They played a they played a tournament, but a true
rogueme since November eleventh, and the two road games they
did play were Navy and Quinnipiac. Now Quinnipiac is barely
a road game for Yelle. It's a quick, quick, Connecticut
trip Rob as you know very well, and also in
that game, a Mario Monroe kind of like didn't play
his full minutes. I feel like he was if you
go back to like that early in the season. Of course,
a Mario Monroe Quinnipiac big man, one of the best
players in the matt Conference. They were lucky to keep him.
He kind of battled an injury at times during November.
So I went back and looked, Yale won that game
by thirty seven. He only played like nineteen minutes. Wasn't
a huge factor. You brought up the Akron game. That
was a weird game because it was part of an MTE.
It was the last day of the MTE, so it's
like ninety seven ninety four, but one of those games
where you know, you start to play three games, and
I think that was a three game in four day
type setup where it's just like, you know, the last
day is kind of a free for all. So while
the win over Acron is really nice win on paper,
I have to take it with a grain of salt
because of that. The other thing that you know, for me,
I've talked about this a couple of times, like Rhode
Island's not a very good team in the A ten.
Like I thought that they regressed from last year to
this year in terms of like, you know, they lost
David Green to Tulsa. I played against him a couple
of times with like far inferior teams. I had an
easy cover a couple of weeks ago with Canisius against
Rhode Island. So you know, that's an outright home loss
for Yale as a nine point favorite. I they've done
well against what's been put in front of them so
far this year, but they've seen nothing like Alabama yet
and all all that, I think the whole handicap here
is this rob how much is Alabama looking ahead to
Kentucky this weekend because if they because if they show
up here could very easily be a twenty point blowout.
And they're you know, Nate Oates, I can't imagine he's
like overly thrilled with how his team is played in
some of these games of late. You know, they kind
of really kind of went through the motions last week
against Kennesaw Like that wasn't like a banner performance for them,
even the South Florida game to give up ninety three
to South Florida like been given up a lot of
points lately, and you just have to wonder, like they've
had a week off, does Nato have his team focused,
And if they are, twenty points is not that out
of the realm of possibility. So I pump the brakes,
I very slightly toward Yale, but I just don't think
I'm gonna get there with that one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you know for a lot of reasons
that you listen. And I'll say one more thing about
Yale at this point in time. I don't think Yale's
ever intimidated by venue. Maybe the first road game in
a while, but Yale's not one of these teams that's
gonna go into Alabama and actually be in awe of
the surroundings they go. James Jones coaches that team so well,
So I don't know that the road means a lot here.
I just think they're good. Both teams should score here,
And of course the schedule strict of scheduled difference that
we pointed out multiple times here is huge. And will
Alabama's players listen to Natoates's warnings about Yale. It's sometimes
they just don't feel like they need to be warned
about teams and Yale's good at sneaking up on people.
I think this one probably gets over the total of
one seventy five and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was sitting here. I was kind of hoping
it would move in the other direction. Maybe Alabama would
take some money. I think if I think had this
gotten up to like nineteen, I probably would have clicked Yale.
But like, right, it's right there. I think the books
did a good job. I think that's where the number
should be. I wouldn't be surprised to see Yale competitive
for like competitive for long stretches, and even if they
are still sweating out that like fifteen sixteen right at
the end, if Alabama can land the knockout punch. But
I hope for the for the IVY and the small
conferences in the Northeast, it would be it would be
awesome to see Yale compete in this game. All right,
let's bring Garth in here, he says, thoughts on Cal
Baptist Utah Valley. He's leading cal bat plus six and
a half and so conference play here, the whack rob.
I'm actually very very interested in this whack conference conference
play this year, and the reason for that is there's
only seven teams, So if you haven't followed along at home,
the Whack is gonna dissolve after this year. I believe
cal Baptist will join the Big West and then some
of these other football schools in the Whack are going
places like I believe they're going to make something called
the UAC, which they've already done in college football, where
it's like a handful of teams from the Whack, and
it's like the football schools that are still in like
the Atlantic Sun very odd. It's like a you know, geographically,
they're gonna get a lot of travel in this conference,
probably when like you know, Austin p is playing like
Southern Utah or something like that. But that's what their football,
as we know, rules everything, and that's what they're looking
to go to next year. So because of this transition year,
we've got a seven team Whack. They will get an
auto bid to the NCAA Tournament. And the cool thing
about this is like they're pretty they're pretty evenly matched.
Like I think the teams like outside of well maybe
Utah Valley being the clear favorite, but the teams are
pretty evenly matched. And some of these conference matchups are
gonna see three times, so that's gonna be an interesting
wrinkle that you probably haven't seen much before, is that
you're gonna get three meetings for a lot of these
conference games. This one's interesting to me, rob because I'm
with Garf and the respect Garth and the respect that
I thought that number was awfully high when it came out.
Cal Baptist is really good, but the matchup to me
kind of lean. I lean toward Utah Valley on the
matchup because Don Daniels is the guy for cal Baptists,
and when he can sort of do what he wants,
get to the rim, take guys off the dribble, that
cal Baptist team is really good. It is going to
be difficult to do that against Utah Valley. They've got
size and they can defend him in that respect. So
I guess when I wrapped up my handicap here, I
was like, well, number wise, cal Baptist makes a lot
of sense, but this is not the worst matchup for
Utah Valley, and I wouldn't be that surprised if the
Wolverines pulled away. What are you thinking about cal Baptist
Utah Valley anything? On Garth's side play and do you
have anything on the total here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of days. Certainly both teams are anchored
in defense. I think there's a slight and not even
a slight. There's a pretty sizeable advantage offensively toward the
Utah Valley side. The one thing that I noticed that
and when you go through all the analytics here, is
the turnover problems that Utah Valley has had this season,
and if those could be created by a cal Baptist,
you're probably getting extra possessions. And you're even closer is
staying within the number. Obviously, money has taken the better
part of this underdog price away from US plus nine
down to plus six and a half already. Yeah, you've
chewed up eight and a half, eight, seven and a half,
seven all the way down to six and a half.
So that's not great. My initial lean here when I
looked at it at first, was toward total, which it
always is, and I thought two defensive minded teams in
a conference game probably somewhat under that's also been played
a little bit here, one forty six and a half
down to one forty four. There's no real edges where
size is concerned where I think athleticism is concerned. I
think they're both kind of somewhat equal in that respect. However,
I would say that Utah State just based on the
way they performed our Utah Valley excuse me, the way
that they've performed offensively this year. It's just a drastic difference.
And it's not an easy road trip. You know, when
your CALBA and now you got to go up and
play in some altitude in orm Utah. That's never an
easy thing. You can get ground down, worn down by
the end of the game. So a lot of things
in favor of Utah Valley. Whi's not in their favor
here if you're gonna play them as a favorite of
this size is their free throw shooting hasn't been great
this season, so you know, you miss a couple front
ends of one and ones, the other team can stay
within the number. If I had my choice, I probably
would have played Baptist at the larger price. I don't
think I could play them at this price, but I
still think under has room. One forty four and a
half to me, seems fairly high in a game which
I expect the defense is to be the best units
on the floor. So in Utah Valley real quick for
what it's worth, in some of these games this season, defensively,
they've shown up tenacious and I would be very very
surprised if that wasn't the case here again tonight. So
even if they win by margin, if they win by margin,
that means cal bapt just hasn't probably gotten beyond sixty
And I think under is still a solid play at
one forty four and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, both of these teams are really good defensive teams.
Both teams can rebound like you're looking at it. So,
just going back to like where this opened at nine
and a half, that was shocking to me because I
feel like, I feel like these are probably the two
best teams in this league now. Teams like Tarlton Tarleton
and Arlington Abilene they're not that far off from these guys.
But like, it was a little bit shocking to me
to see the opener of nine and a half. With
that being said, I think where it's at now, I
think I would lean toward playing Utah Valley minus six
and a half because I agree that the number was off,
but my everything about my handicap suggests that Utah Valley
probably pulls away in this game. So the thing to
me is like you go back to like, yes, both
teams scrappy, both teams very good defensively, both teams can rebound.
But Utah Vlley six and zero at home, they tend
to play really great in this gym. And then the
ease of which their offense flows is much easier than
cal Baptist, right, Like, they're a great Utah Vllley this
year rob thirteenth in the country, fifty two percent from
the field. They generate really good looks from three, from two,
they can get to the rim, their size plays on
both ends of the floor. And then, like I've mentioned
this a couple of times now, it has only come
up once this year and it was not injury related.
Don Daniels got suspended for a game against San Diego,
and now they won that game, but they looked horrific
for most of the first half, and then San Diego
went like ten minutes in the second half without scoring
a single point. That had far more to do with
San Diego just having just horrific shot selection not being
able to make a shot, than it did like cal
Baptists being able to play without Daniels. Now have Daniels here.
But the reason I bring that up is because in
past years, if you've been able to well when he
hasn't played, this Baptist team has been a mess. And
if you can take him out of the game, and
it's really him and like him and Daniels and Martel
Williams are the two guys that that generate the majority
of the offense for this cal Baptist team. If you
can cut those guys out in any capacity, you're gonna
have a pretty good chance to beat cal Baptist. And
I think Utah Valley is not only equipment, not only
are they equipped to do that, but then you throw
in the fact where they rarely lose on this floor.
This isn't just this year. Go back. You talked about
the trip to Orm being a tough one, but like
they have a really good track record in this gym.
And now the market I think has over adjusted six
and a half being way too low in my opinion,
I think at the current number, I could only look
Utah Valley. But listen, Daniels is He's arguably the best
player in this league, So don't I wouldn't be surprised.
If someone's going to overcome a tough matchup, it's going
to be probably gonna be him and makes it a
definitely a great watch. I don't think I can get
involved there because there's just too many, you know, there's
just again shocking to see that number where it was
at the open.
Speaker 2: Real quick. Here, just one last thing about playing in Utah,
about playing in altitude, et cetera, et cetera. Cal Baptist
has been in altitude in this state or in Colorado
in Utah three times already. Those three times the shooting
of cal Baptist was horrendous, especially from beyond the arc.
Two of thirteen against Colorado, six of twenty three against
BYU lose by thirty one, and then against Utah seven
of twenty one. Now, the Colorado and Utah games true
road games, true altitude, and they played them to within
six and eight. I just I'm kind of with you
where I feel like this is a conference matchup, So
I can't completely equate a non conference game with Utah
and Colorado to what the atmosphere is going to be
like here tonight. But if you lose by six and
eight day, you you can lose by seven here tonight
in this particular matchup, especially if you bring Lousey shooting
to the floor, which as we mentioned, there's a significant
edge in how these teams shoot the basketball toward Utah Valley.
Speaker 1: Fixer, I'm gonna hit both of your So, uh, Fixer's
got a game, I'm gonna go to it next. But
I also I also told the bosses I would actually
promote the site more on the show going forward. I
don't do it nearly enough. You know, it's it's we
gotta we got to pay the bills somehow. H Fixer
says Trig that five percent Sam Fran minus three NFL hit.
Yes it did. And Rob, I just the luck I
have in football compared to the luck I've had in
basketball this year. It's like, I mean, you know, Caleb
will Williams is down at the goal line. There was
never any doubt in my mind I was getting a
stop there with four seconds left. Yet I'll I'll find
ways to lose every basketball game by a half point.
I had Portland plus four and a half yesterday, gave
up a breakaway layup with nine seconds left to lose
by five. So you know that's the type of stuff
that's happened. This is a roundabout way to promo. Listen,
we've got a great year coupon, and this is the
kind of stuff that like over the course of the year,
over the course of every pick, in my opinion, like
that's how you should be playing with a handicaper. Like
I know I've pissed some people off with like bad
hoop results, but then you know, I think I have
to go relook in our back end. I might be
number one in the NFL after yesterday I went to
and oh, the point is, wager Talk gives you a
great option to get the year at like a very
very low rate every single play. I feel like that's
how you kind of got to judge someone. Rob got
to up and down ebbs and flows. Then it's like,
you know, you can truly say like, Okay, this person
helped me out, this person didn't. It's on both of
our pages right now, and I think it's up for
the rest of the year. Which year's almost done. New
Year's Eve is Wednesday, so it's like five hundred dollars off.
And I wanted to point that out myself. A Rob
Rob does a million sports. Are you are you having
that issue at all, where it's just like one is
going extremely well and something else isn't at this point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think it happened season to season. And
people often ask me what's your favorite sport. I tell
them it's college football. And it doesn't necessarily mean that
college football is going to be your best betting sport
every single year. It just varies from you to years.
Some years the good results come from the NBA and
the NFL. Some years they come from college football and
college basketball. Right now, what's great for me is NFL
and college basketball, and that's what's doing the job here
providing positive results, so I do It is funny you
say that, because there's no better feeling than knowing that
in a clutch moment it's gonna go your way. You
just know. Thepposite of that is miserable when you know
you're just going to get beat somehow. But that's good
stuff for the NFL, And like you, NFL has been
very very kind to me. Another great day yesterday in
NFL action, So I'm amongst the top three in that
sport as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and and and when you're doing it like that,
really they all they all cash the same like, listen,
I'll take a I'll take a five percent NFL win
over a three percent college basketball win any day of
the week. But I understand the frustration if you're trying
to just you know, grab like someone one sport and
they're struggling in said sport, which is what I've done
so far this year in college too. But that's why
we're here every day, just chipping away, trying to make adjustments,
trying to turn it around, and we will very confident
that it'll there will be coming. Will probably come a
point in time where I get where the luck happens
in the other one and then you're giving up that
goal line touchdown in football. It's just how it goes.
Fixer I, I didn't mean to turn your question into
a three minute like promotion, so I apologize for that.
Let's get back to it. Fixture says Merrimac underdogs for
Sacred Heart. Why, well, that's you know, what's the interesting
about question or about your game. The one that you're
bringing up is I've got question marks all over this game.
And the reason is it is very difficult to figure
out who is going to show up and play for
Sacred Heart. This has been a thing with Anthony. Anthony
Latina has been at Sacred Heart for over a decade.
I followed this team closely ROB when they were still
part of the NEC. They're now in the MAC, and
it's almost like every December his teams have like three
or four guys out. I don't know what it is.
I don't know what you guys have in the water
out there in Fairfield, Connecticut. But like we get to
mid December with Sacred Heart every year they're missing like
three key guys and some of them just like randomly
don't play. Now I'll point out they their last game,
most recent game was against Towson and they got blasted
and I think they played with seven guys, which is
which is not like Anthony Latinas teams are usually pretty deep.
They're typically gonna go ten deep. That was like my
thing coming into this year with Sacred Heart was I
love their depth. So I'm not interested at Sacred Heart
at all if they have if they're not, you know,
if they don't have their usual depth. And in the
Towson game, Rob, which they lost by twenty five points.
In their most recent game for No An Kwon Hill,
he's now been out for a couple of games. That's
a really big deal. He's probably their best inside score,
might be the best scorer on the team. Uh great.
You know they've had guys like Jon Farrell didn't play
against Towson. That was a new one because he had
played the Dartmouth game we talked about on this show
Kid's Day. Sacred Heart won that game. Pharaoh randomly didn't
didn't play against against Towson. So you know, you start
to take a couple of eyes like that out of
the mix, and suddenly you know this this team, because
this Sacred Heart team, to me, becomes less appealing. Now.
The appeal for Sacred Heart against Merrimack is the fact
that they can shoot it a little bit, and you
kind of have to shoot to beat Merrimack's zone. But
rob both of these teams came from the NC. Joe
Gallop Anthony Latina might know each other as good as
any two coaches in the country that haven't been in
the same league forever, right, Like they both came into
the MAC, They've been coaching against each other for years.
So like typically this game like goes down to the wire.
I'm not that surprised at where the number is even
though even though I make Sacred Heart a bigger favorite
on their home court, knowing that they might show up
without anquin Hill makes me think Merrimack shouldn't be a
dog either. So another one, A lot of questions, couldn't
find a way And how are you looking at this one,
Merrimack's Sacred Heart.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I think the personnel problem. There are question
marks that you point out will taken, and obviously it
makes it difficult to handicap a game when you don't
know who's going to show who isn't. I know, we've
talked about the flu running through locker rooms across the country,
and you just don't get the quality of injury update
reports from these low major schools that you would from
let's just say a professional league. Although the NBA is
tough too. They don't let me know until ten minutes
before tip. But it's hard to handicap that way. It's
obviously a contrast in styles. Merrimack's defense certainly makes up
for their lack of offense. Their slow pace. Probably you
know bothers Sacred Heart a little bit. But I will say, Adam,
that that game that you just talked about the eleven
o'clock kids day where we're all, you know, screaming for anything.
But the game that blowout of Dartmouth was kind of
unexpected that date. Dartmouth I believe was taking money in
that game, and they get destroyed by the Sacred Heart offense.
So I would have a hard time playing against Sacred
Heart here in this gym off of the loss to
taosand which is no shame in that loss, but thousands
another strictly defensive minded team and slow paced team like Merrimack,
which would make me a little leery of playing Sacred
Heart here as well as it could be the particular
style and tempo that they don't perform well against. That
profile seemed to work last game. We'll see if it
works here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and don't listen, there's been about a week now,
Like don't be surprised if Sacred Heart shows up with
all their guys here like that that happened, you know,
Trevor Trevor in the chatsis Jon Farrell is active for
Sacred Heart today, Like he's not the one. Unfortunately, he's
not the one that moves the needle for me, like
a Kwan Hill being in is the one I would
really want to know about. But like I was at
a Sacred Heart game like two years ago, and I
mean I had media, I was able to get in
there early. And Tanner Thomas was the best player on
the team at the time. He's now Loyola Marriormount, and
no one knew he was playing until he straight up
just walked out of the locker room like ten minutes
before the game and like was like, yeah, I'm playing.
Like it was like it was like completely unknown to
even some of the guys on the on the staff
that day. So it's like one of those things where
for whatever reason, they've been really weird with injuries and
then like guys playing. I've also the other side of
the coin, same guy Tanner Thomas used to be the bigger,
biggest defender of this at Sacred Heart, where like he
randomly just didn't play a game. I think it was
like Holy Cross a couple of years ago, never a
word about it. He was there, warmed up, just didn't play.
So like, you know, big big difference here for me,
a fully healthy Sacred Heart team, I have the number
here right here in my notes. If Sacred Heart's fully healthy,
I make him three and a minus three and a
half here. I would take pick or minus one all
day if I knew that they had their full complement
of players, And unfortunately I just don't know. So I'll
a lean sacred heart. But that's that's the key there.
And even if they're fully healthy, Joe Gallo knows that
team as good as anyone, and don't sleep on Merrimack
just because they don't have Bud Clark anymore. They've they've
they've figured out how to work around it. They're a
team that I think is much better than I thought
they were going to be with some of the guys
they lost this year. That's a day game, so we
got one of the early tips in. That's a three
o'clock tip out your way, Robield.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And one last thing on that, Adam. I don't
know how much this means, but you and I, I mean,
I'm more mid Atlantic, you're Northeast. But these bus trips
from Massachusetts to Connecticut in the weather that we had
last night that we're having today sometimes aren't easy bus rides.
Sometimes that throws the team off a little bit too.
I mean it's outside the box. Obviously, it's not something
you can put in into the handicap unless you truly
know bus broke down team took eight hours to get there.
But they're just not the easiest trips at this time
of year, whether it's been brutal here and over Mass
to Fairfield. Just off the top of my head, probably
somewhere in the you know, three hours bus ride type thing,
maybe a little more. So we'll see if that plays
a part here. But I think if something had really happened,
you've just seen it in the line and real quick.
One last thing I wanted to mention was, as we
were talking the game we previously talked about went back
up to seven seven and a half the Colbaptist game,
so that line is bouncing a little bit now there's
been take back on the Utah Valley side.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's great points too, And like also it's something
you want to know because like if a bus, if
you're on a if you're going to bus to the game,
which many of these small Northeast conferences, like, I think
that's something that a lot of the rest of the
country doesn't realize, is like pretty much if you're in
one of the smaller Northeast conferences and you're playing in
the northeast. It's always going to be a bus trip.
Not one hundred times out of one hundred, no one,
No one is flying anywhere in the north. It's always
going to be a bus trip. My driveway and road
is a sheet of ice right now. And if that like,
if that bus is late, it's it's It usually means
no shoot around, right like, it usually means you miss
your your pregame sort of like walk through. You get
the quick warm up. I'll put the thirty minutes on
the clock and you'll get the quick like layup line stuff.
But you know, it's worth noting. I definitely think it's
probably worth at least a point toward the home team.
And it's a it's a very good point right there,
rob Right.
Speaker 2: It's a compound it atam. It's a two o'clock in
the afternoon game. Yes, it's not like it's a seven
at night game where you've got extra time to you know,
this is quick, so yeah, we'll see.
Speaker 1: All right, mad Max, thank you for the donation, and
and thank you guys for you know, tuning in donating
like subscribes. We reappreciate all of it. This is the
first year that we've done this show. We've we've tinkered
with formats and and you know, we're trying to bring
you a college basketball show five days a week where
we sort of deep dive the games that that you
guys want to talk about. Great way to get your
game up is, you know, if you attach any sort
of donation to it, it comes up in this nice
U n C. Wilmington s Coastal Carolina esque teal color
Rob and I can see it, so I click on
it and we make sure we get it up here
and then go sort of deep into your game. That's
something I think some of these other shows don't do
quite as much. So Mad Max, thank you for for
the donation. Thank you guys for the like subscribes, retweets,
how anything helps, and we very much appreciate it, and
we'll get into your So another interesting sort of see
I've noticed this is like a theme of today in
addition to league play, it's SEC playing their their quote
unquote tune up game ahead of league play, like starting
back up or starting this weekend. So you got this
in a couple of different scenarios today, and this is
this is one of them where you know you've got
the other end of the spectrum where there's a couple
of just like layup type games. I think Texas A
and M is playing a team that they're probably gonna
blow out, and then you've got Alabama, who maybe isn't
a tougher game that they would have would have hoped
for with Yale. This is kind of the one where
it's like, Okay, Arkansas is getting a James Madison team.
Mad Max makes a great point. JMU has fallen precipitous
drop from where I think everyone expected them to be
this year. They lost to Georgia Southern. They're now outside
I believe ken PM's top two hundred. Arkansas coming off
the loss to Houston no real shame in that. I mean,
there's no shame in losing that game. But you know
you've got a you know, you've got a scenario now
where I guess this would be a bounce back spot
for Arkansas coming off the Houston loss, But they also
have Tennessee at home on Saturday, So my gut says
it's probably a little bit more of like a sandwich
type look ahead than a bounce back spot against the
James Madison team that maybe they haven't been the sort
of Sun Belt power that we've expected them to be
this point. But like this goes back to rob it's
almost like reset time. Teams just went home for a week.
Now you're coming out conference player coming out of the break.
I tend to bump teams like James Madison who maybe
struggled a little bit in November and December, but I
know that they're a pretty good team. Like I like
to come back with these teams around this time of year. So,
James Madison, Arkansas intriguing matchup? Do you have anything for
us on this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah? These are tough, like you say, Adam, because you
can stand on two sides of the fence and throw
arguments back and forth. To me, the Arkansas lost to
Houston was interesting, right. They get behind in that game
by like twenty points in the first half, Houston destroying them,
and yet Arkansas is still able to go out there
and score eighty five points. Houston doesn't want to get
involved in ninety four to eighty five, but Arkansas kind
of dictated that they were gonna get involved in ninety
four to eighty five, and Arkansas made their way back.
They didn't hang their heads down twenty one as I
look here real quick, that score exactly was forty to nineteen.
At one point Houston and Arkansas made their way back.
I think the other really good point you made that
I should have brought up at the top of the
show is there is a lot of time gap between
games for these teams, and the age old question rest
versus RUSS. You really just don't know if rest is
helpful to a team, if they're going to come out
rusty in the beginning, et cetera, et cetera. When you're
laying twenty four and a half, certainly hope your team
doesn't come out rusty. But I would think Caliparri, just
knowing his history and knowing his way of, you know,
basically preaching to his team, I would think they'll be
ready for this. I think he wants to go into
the SEC opener on a high note. It doesn't mean
you win by twenty five. You could win by twenty two,
and that's the same type of high note. But I
think they'll be ready. I looked at their team total
thinking that perhaps they could. You know, James Madison doesn't
necessarily want to go quick. Arkansas is going to force
them to go quick if you could force Houston to
go quick, you force anybody to go quick. So I
looked at their team total. It was ninety two and
a half, just a little too high for me. It
was the only thing in that game that I considered
at all was the Arkansas team total. But for me,
it'll be a no play just because I think it's
a shade probably too high. If I had to lean,
I would say, I think they If I had, you know,
to throw somebody's twenty dollars around, I'd probably throw it
on the Arkansas team total over. But I'm not quite
speaking with real conviction on that play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's you know, opener was like twenty one and
a half. I think this went up to twenty four,
maybe even twenty five someplaces. Now kind of back in
that twenty four and a half range, I would say
a majority of of spots, which, like I think that
might be a tough number for Arkansas to cover. Like
that's it. That's an awfully big number in my opinion.
But man, for James Madison, the game this weekend at
Arkansas State is so much more important than this way.
I mean, they come off like, you know, that's something
I think plays in this week a little bit like
if if if James Madison has guys that are even
remotely on the fence side that they don't even like
although I don't know, are they going back to Arkansas
for a second, Like I doubt they're staying all week.
This is probably just a really poor sort of scheduling
scenario where you know, you gotta take like if if
Arkansas is going to have you down to cut you
a check, like you have to take it when you
can get it. My guess is James Madison is coming
down to Arkansas, going back home for the week, and
then heading back to Arkansas where they play play a
league game in Jonesboro on Saturday. Point is like, if
there's guys on the fence, they're probably not even going
to travel to this game. Like this is a James
Madison team that started zero and two and sun I'll
play that game. Saturday is massive for them. So it's like,
you know, this is a scenario where if this game
was like early November, Rob, I think James Madison is
like real fired up to come in and play Arkansas,
you know, potentially like pull a huge upset here. I
think this is more like, let's get some like reps
in for Saturday because that is a much bigger game,
and so because of that, I'm kind of like, I
don't know that I want to take all these points,
even though numerically I think there's a little bit of
value with James Madison at the current number of twenty
four and a half. But I'm kind of with you.
It's very similar to Alabama Yale in my opinion, where
it's like, if you get a fully focused Arkansas team here,
probably gonna win by thirty. You know, if they win
by twenty five, you're covered. I feel the same way
about Alabama. If you get fully focused Bama, They're gonna
come out win by twenty. Like that's just what's gonna
happen in my opinion. So I guess the very round
about answer to mad Max question, I'll go with Rob.
Rob thinks it could be a little bit of a
bounce back for Arkansas kind of focus before conference play,
and I'll just say if it is, they're probably covering.
They're probably gonna cover this number. Any sort of focus here,
I think Arkansas will either cover the number, and if
they do, would would that go hand in hand with
their team total? Rob like, if they cover, they're probably
going over their team total.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it has to. And if I chose
me to, if I had to choose between the two,
I'd probably just go team total because you can still
win that game ninety three to seventy and not get
the cover, but get the team total. So at that
price tag, if I had my choice, i'd probably go
Arkansas team total. Again, if you can force tempo against
Houston Boy, you can force it against anybody. And I
think Cali Parri probably wants to get into conference play.
I'm certain he doesn't want to goin off a bad performance.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Garth. Here's this one's this
was one that I'm super interested in this game because
here you want to talk about big another big early
move that I just didn't that didn't make any sense
to me. New Orleans ut Rio Grand Valley. So he
says he likes the team total over on the New
Orleans side, and I guess I'll leave the team total
part for you. What I didn't understand was why New
Orleans took the money that they took this morning, knocking
this down from I think six to like three and
a half. I'm very tempted to play back at that move.
The only reason I haven't yet is is, you know,
with these smaller conference like south Land teams, you have
to worry about like injuries and stuff. But I'll go
back to the thing I've said a couple of times
where it's like UTRGV. I think would have to have
like a number of guys out to make me worried about, like,
you know, injuries in a conference game, like I don't
think they have that type of injury concern coming into
this game, Rob. I think I may have missed the
boat on this one. I think this was what we
like to call a little head fake. I think North
I think New Orleans got slammed overnight. This was three
and a half UTRGV when I got out right before
I logged in to do this show with you. It's
now back up to five five and a half. So
to me, like I didn't, I didn't agree with the
move at all. I would love to have UTRGV at
home here Southland Conference game minus three and a half.
I personally still think New Orleans is a little bit
overvalued from some of their like huge non conference results
that they had, of course to win over TCU believe
they played ment this tough. There was someone else that
they either beat or took to the wire, maybe Mississippi
State in non conference play. I would have to sign
with the home team here. Man, I'm kicking myself. I
wish I just did when that got that down, I
should have laid the three and a half because my
number is like much closer to wear this open I have,
I'll find it on my notes, But I think I
was at like six and a half here with the
Vocaros at home. So even if there's still fives out there,
Fandel's got four and a half minus one twenty. I
land with the home team here and I'll leave the
team total part to you. But yeah, I wish i'd
bought that dip because it just didn't make any sense
to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one's difficult garth for me, trying to make
heads or tails of the New Orleans team total play.
On the one hand, my initial thought would be that
inside the Southland so far, you've scored seventy six and
eighty four in two games. One against Houston Christian went
against Incarnate Word. Both played on your home floor. However,
I don't know that that's enough to get me to
over seventy four and a half on the road against
the team that's just as good, if not better, probably
a little bit better Real Grand Valley. That being said,
I like the schedule strength that New Orleans played. You
could almost call this their conference play. You could almost
call a step down in class for them. Which when
you're stepping down in class and you have a set
of numbers side in total that is based on season
results so far, you can find a little bit of
value there which would lead me toward maybe over seventy
four and a half. It's an interesting game the other
side as well. The other side, I think the total
was seventy nine and a half. In fact, I'm looking
right now seventy nine and a half. That may be
a tick too high. I'm not sure, but I can't
find a real good reason guard you could tell that.
I make kind of a point counterpoint toward this New
Orleans side. I don't think there's a huge advantage here
with them in any facet of the game other than
they want to push and Rio grand Is, you know,
pretty they're fairly quick themselves. They're not ultra fast, but
they're fairly quick. They'll go, especially at home, I think
they would go up and down. So to me, it's
probably a no play. Wouldn't be surprised to either result.
Don't want to talk you off of anything, but just something.
I can't find a decisive edge on that New Orleans
team total at that price.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Bayu makes a really good point. They have not
New Orleans has not played since the thirteenth of December.
You're gonna actually fight. There's a couple of teams a
Hawaii is another one that comes to mind that that
are going to have massive layoffs over the holiday break.
New Orleans is another one. They've gone. That's that's sixteen
days I believe between games. It's just that it's just
not ideal in my opinion, that's not something that you see.
Some teams are going to fall into it. But like, man,
when you start to get more than like eight nine
days between games, like you have to think that they
probably had like substantial time off. Who knows, maybe even
some of them got to go back home or something
for holiday break. You know, you have sixteen days. My
guess is like you got some time off. You talk
about a team like New Orleans getting that break too,
I mean, this is a team that played road games
at TCU, LSU, Tulane, Pepperdine. They went out West, played
Pepperdine and Fresno, Mississippi State, went to Lubbock and played
Texas Tech up to Memphis. Some of those are right
in their area. But still a lot of home games,
a lot of road games. Houston before that long long layoff,
if you will, was another one. So again they've they've
had a ton of travel, get some time off. Like,
you know, do they come out flat? I guess is
the question that you have to ask yourself. UTRGV. They can.
I mean, if they're hitting their threes, they're gonna be
tough to be especially on their home floor. That's kind
of like the thing that they've done the best this year, right,
like seventh in the country, rob in a three point
shooting percentage forty point four percent. I had UTRGV in
a spot a couple of weeks ago, and they it
looked like they were gonna run Texas Arlington out of
the gym. They came out in the second half just
straight up could not hit a shot. But to just
to speak to that matchup, ut Arlington's pretty scrappy, pretty
good defensive team, I'm not I'm not sure New Orleans
is that. So because we're getting late in the show, Rob,
I'm gonna make this my parlay Lake. I'm i really
upset with myself for not just like firing when this
was three and a half, which it wasn't for for
very long. Who knows, maybe it'll come back throughout the day.
Right now, you can get five. You can get Rio
Grand Valley minus five most places I'm looking. Yeah, you know,
if you if you have the Aduel, there's a four
and a half there, but that's that's a four and
a half minus one twenty, which is essentially five minus
one ten. So like that's what I'm gonna use for
the parlay UTRGV minus five. I just think, like you know,
the layoffs, sixteen days off and then they have to
sort of restart your season and do it on the
road in conference in what is likely one of the
more difficult like trips you have to make in the Southland.
My Texas geography is not great, but I'm pretty sure Edinburgh,
Texas is like down near the Mexico border, like on
the other side of the state. Someone can correct me.
On that, but point is tough road trip. UTRGV typically
pretty good at home, seventh in the country shooting the three.
If New Orleans is even a little bit flat here,
they're down ten, So I'm gonna lay it. I'll take
the Vocaros minus five. That'll be my parlay Lake And
with ten minutes left, do you have an idea of
where you want to go for the parlay?
Speaker 2: Oh? No, I'm pretty sure where I want to go
and will stay on the theme of team totals that
was just brought up to us by Garth. But I
had one adam that stood out to me I thought
was I guess I would say extreme value. But Bethune
Cookman's going to play Oklahoma State tonight. Oklahoma State's number
is a relatively low ninety one and a half for
this game. Bethune Cookman has just been on one of
those ridiculously tough schedules like we talk about with Texas
Southern or any swax school all the time. But Cookman
already has given up one hundred plus points two teams
in the exact same wheelhouse as Oklahoma State, or just
upper tier teams for instance, one hundred and one to
Miami on the road, Miami quicker pace known for offense.
One hundred at Indiana allowed by Bethune Cookman. Of course,
Indiana good offensive team this year, but again under a
new head coach that doesn't necessarily want to go extremely fast.
So one hundred given up there is ridiculous. One twelfth
to Saint Louis, which plays a rapid style pace like Oklahoma.
One oh seven to Arizona, which is one of the
nation's best teams. Oklahoma State has going over ninety one
and a half six times already this season. And here's
here's the key for me and I always I talk
about these numbers quite a bit. How long does your
offensive how long is your offensive possession length? How long
is the other side defensive possession length. In the case
of Bethune Cookman, they allow shots very very quickly, number
fifty six in the nation, fifty six fastest. Oklahoma State
wants to do nothing but go fast. They released the
ball as quick as anybody in the country. Their average
possession length is fortieth in the nation. You're going to
get a zillion possessions. You're going to get a Bathune
Cookman team that has been put through the Ringer. I
mean just this recent rash of road games played by Cookman,
Like I said, it's kind of ridiculous when you've been
at Missouri, at Saint Louis, at Arizona, now you're gonna
be at Oklahoma State. I just don't see how, but
Dukee Cookman has to just be worn out at this
point in time by from playing this type of team.
Ninety one and a half seems too small. I think
they probably get into the ninety five plus range here,
So I'm gonna use Oklahoma State, excuse me, team total
over ninety one and a half as the my half
of the parlay. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you've had a tremendous beat on
this Oklahoma State team all year. So any listen, if
it's Oklahoma State related, you should listen to Rob. I
feel like you've come on this show and every time
we've talked about Oklahoma State, you've been right about what
the outcome is going to be. There was even times
that I feel like I was on the other side
and you were still right. So it's like for me,
like I'm not going to push back on your Oklahoma
State assessment. I feel like that's a team that you've
had nailed this year. One thing I'll point out from
the Bethune Cookman side that we've kind of touched on
over the last couple of weeks. You know, this is
a team so the Swack. The Swack doesn't do the
early league play like a lot of these other conferences do.
And the main reason for that is they're you know,
all of these Swack teams for the most part, are
out on the road collecting the paycheck in November and December.
They're going in there taking their their beatings. They're getting
their their by game checks from Auburn, from Miami, from Dayton,
those those are the teams that Thune Cookman has played Indiana, Missouri,
Saint Louis, Arizona. Like, but Thune Cookman's got to be like,
f this, we really have to go to Stillwater, like
we finally get to Like they've got to be so
focused on that home game on Saturday, Like that's got
to be such a big deal to them to be
starting conference play on Saturday. The only thing that matters
to really matters to these Swack schools that like this
has got to be more than a nuisance than anything.
I'm sure, but Dune Cookman is so sick of playing
these types of games. They probably can't wait to have
a home game against Florida A and M, which matters
which counts on Saturday. That like, I could absolutely see
them just going to Still Water and getting blasted here
and not even really caring, right, just like, okay, whatever,
let's be done with this, let's get the conference play.
So Rob, I'm with you. What is that team total
again for.
Speaker 2: The people and ninety one and a half?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you're talking about ninety one and a
half points. Like this feels like a triple digit scoreboard
outing for for Oklahoma State if they it feels like
they can name the score in a game like this,
at least their score. So I don't know about the spread,
but it feels like if they want to score a hundred,
they can score a hundred here, which would be lovely
for the team total.
Speaker 2: It's actually funny that it could be more of a
look ahead for Bethune Cookman than it is Oklahoma State,
who opens Big twelve season with Texas Tech on the
road on Saturday. So yeah, in total agreement that you know,
enough is enough, but you know Texas Southern does the
same thing. They just take these lumps every single and
then when conference play comes around, Texas Southern generally is there.
So maybe this is the Reggie Theis logic for Saturday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's also just it's also just the reality
of like college basketball at this point. Yep, listen, if
you want, We're gonna get one more game before we
sign off. But I will say this, there's a great
full court special for both of us on our page
if you're if you're looking for more games, that's the
way to get them. Wager talk dot com. Check out
our page. We each have the full court package during
the week. On the weekend, we put one up that
that's all of our plays. You get a ton of info.
I'm putting full analysis out with every play. Rob's giving
you analysis on totals. We bet very differently, so it's
a great way to do the joint one. Or if
you're like, hey, Triggs is colder than the Northeast right now,
then go with Rob. But take advantage of that special
that that's on the page. And if if you're if you're,
you know, we're gonna cover a lot more games on
the wager Talk site that we can get to in
depth in an hour on this show, but we'll we'll
wrap it up. I know Garth loves to talk about
Western Kentucky. I believe he's a Western Kentucky alum. But
I got my guy by you in the chat saying
he likes Jacksonville State tonight and Rob, you know, I
come on and kind of joke with you on the
show because I don't. I don't do a ton of
total I never bet totals. Maybe that's what I should
be doing because I feel like I come on here
talk about totals they do well. I think that that's
more luck than anything. I think that's small sample size.
If I was just great at totals, I be betting them.
But the reason I bring that up is Western Kentucky
Jacksonville State. The side is tough here. I'm not gonna
go against buy you. If he likes Jacksonville State, I'll
roll with him there. But this feels like it could
be a struggle that Jacksonville State offense kind of disjointed,
and then Western Kentucky sort of lives at the rim.
But you can't live at the rim against Jacksonville State.
That's one thing they do well is defend. So I
believe this total got bet up and my notes, which
I probably should organize better I had written down, disagree. No,
I'm sorry. That was a different game. This one's still
one forty four and a half hasn't moved. But I
kind of lean toward the under here. I think offense
might be a struggle, especially being on the road with
Western Kentucky. You know, if they can't get to the
rim and they're suddenly forced to shoot jumpers. I think
that's a bad recipe for the Toppers, and maybe that's
why Jacksonville State is a play for Balue tonight. But
either way, I like the under. How are you seeing
this one? Western Kentucky Jacksonville State.
Speaker 2: I would probably lean the Western Kentucky side, and I
would look at their team total. Now, again, I gotta
preface this by saying that I didn't bet the game,
so these are just opinions on my part of what
I think would happen here. I think Western Kentucky is
always live. Is a team total overplay for me, no
matter who the opponent. Just love the way they push
pace and you get extra possessions, et cetera, et cetera.
Adam I'm gonna switch this really, really quick, just because
I want to jam these two Missouri Valley games, Missouri
Valley Conference games. Let's go quick, real quick. Belmont Indiana
State tonight, huge game. You know my affection for Belmont obviously,
when I'm not involved financially, I'm rooting for Belmont at
every corner. They're two and oh in conference play already
Indiana State's oh and two already, Belmont's two conference wins
were close. They weren't blowouts like what we saw against
Irvine the other night. And a two and oh team
in conference against an oh and two home underdog, you know,
that profile kind of screams Indiana State plus points. Whether
they get it done or not, I'm not sure, but
I think that's an interesting one. Then the other one,
of course, Southern Illinois in Murray State should be an
absolute barn burner. My first inclination was to take six
and a half with Southern Illinois, but I don't know
that I want to get in front of Murray State
right now. They've been so good this season. This total
has been steamed from one sixty four to like six
eight at this point in time, So money really expecting
a lot of points to be scored there. But the
Missouri Valley Conference, for what it's worth, I just think
it needs mentioning that those two games are absolutely worth
watching tonight. And if I had my choice of the two,
I think I would probably look towards Indiana States just
in a desperate situation here, and their losses are not
bad low. I think I lost triple overtime to Bradley.
No shame in a triple overtime loss. So they've been
close one side of the two games. Belmont's wins have
been really close. Maybe the points are a little too
excessive there.
Speaker 1: And it's funny you bring those two up. If I
had my choice of those two, I had Southern Illinois
Murray State over written down with question marks. Going back
to something you said. Murray State's offense has been incredible,
but I do think there's some path to maybe some
path to scoring for some points there at to Southern Illinois.
But yeah, I have no interest in stepping in front
of Murray State right now, but I could see it,
like if I could see there being some points in
that game. The only way Southern Illinois hangs around in
that game is if they can score a little bit,
so like, I just think that for me it would
be the over in that game. That was funny you
brought that up because that was the only other The
only two totals I had jotted down was under in
Western Kentucky Jacksonville State, over in Southern Illinois Murray State.
So a couple of rapid fire ones at the end there.
And then for the crowd that says we don't give
out picks on this show, we always do a parlay,
so we're actually gonna always leave you with something. In
this case, my leg ut Rio Grand Valley minus five
and Rob is going to go with Oklahoma State team
total over ninety one and a half. Ever since we
dropped it down to two teamers, we've been hitting these,
I believe, up over four units now on the season.
This is another one right in that plus two sixty range,
just straight up both minus one ten. So we'll go
with that for today, see if we can cash another parlay.
If you're looking for more, heading over to wager talk
dot com. Both of us will have plays up today.
There's great specials for college basketball and for all Access,
the best one being that All Access special that I
believe is going to run through the end of the year.
Appreciate you guys tuning in, like and subscribe, you know,
chime in the comments below on the wager Talk YouTube
replay and we will see you guys. Back here tomorrow
ten am for more full Core Press