Speaker 1: What's going on? Thank you so much for listening to
this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon
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smartphone or tablet. And again, thank you so much for
your support. And it is Tuesday at noon, and that
means it's time to chat with Andrew Dunn. He is
a contributing columnist to The Charlotte Observer, also the publisher
of Longleaf Politics. You can read it at longleafpol dot com. Andrew,
how are you, sir?
Speaker 2: I'm doing great. Good to be back with you.
Speaker 1: Yes, sir, thanks for your time. As always, so I
don't I'm not insulting you, but only an elections data
guy would think let alone do an analysis of what
a North Carolina state election would look like if we
had an electoral college. You realize you are in a
very very small minority of human beings that would be
interested let alone do something like this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know what it says about me that
that's what I think about in my spare time.
Speaker 1: Right now, I wouldn't do it, to be clear, but
I was definitely interested in reading what you wrote about
it because I know I myself wouldn't go through this trouble.
But so you get this idea, You're like, hey, let's
see what it would look like in the state. So
you run the numbers and mark Robinson big winner. He
would be the governor if North Carolina had the electoral college.
So let me put on my anti electoral college hat,
not that I actually own one, but is this proof
that there should be no electoral college at the national
level because Robinson lost by such a large margin.
Speaker 2: Me, I don't interpret it that way. And you know,
the state and the country are too very different things.
You know, basically, just for a little background for your listeners,
I'm sure they're familiar with the electoral college at the
presidential level. Every state has two votes for their their
senators and then votes based on their number of House
of Representatives members. So I kind of did the same
thing with North Carolina counties, where every county got one
electoral vote. You know, that was even across the board,
and then gave additional votes based on number of state
House members in there. In North Carolina just has so
many small counties that just had the minimum number of
electoral votes, but they added up to a large number.
So even you know, when you run the numbers that way,
you know Mark Robinson can lose by massive historic proportions
and still win the governor's race under an electoral college system,
just because you know, he's winning seventy out of the
one hundred counties.
Speaker 1: Right, So Robinson dominates in the rural counties, the small counties,
and Josh Stein dominates in Wake Mecklenburg, the big most
populated counties. Right. So also I thought it was interesting
you ran these numbers two for McCrory and Dan Forrest.
McCrory would have been a two term governor. Dan Forest
would have won in a landslide as well. So is
this just I mean, was this just a scratch an
itch answer a question that you had or is there
something else that we can draw from this?
Speaker 2: No, just scratching and itch, But it's really interesting. You know,
you don't have to go back that far for when
the map looks completely different. Yes, Dan Forrest wins under
an electoral College and Pat McCrory wins the second term.
But you know, Bev Purdue still wins her first election,
like easily wins his elections easily. This was not that
long ago, you know, twenty twenty years ago, Democrats were
performing well across the state. So it really says a
lot of our current political landscape where we've gotten so
geographically polarized, and I think it answers. You know, the
big question that I hear all the time, especially from
folks on the left side of the aisle, is how
in a fifty to fifty state is the General Assembly
you know, so dominated by Republicans And it's not jerrymandering, honestly,
the bigger factor is that Republicans do dominate in so
many areas of the state.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that the Democrats have of this problem where they
have clustered themselves in the urban areas and beyond those
countiest they don't do well, their messages do not resonate,
and Republicans have the inverse problem.
Speaker 2: I would submit, Yeah, I would agree with that, and
I think it says something. You know, really since two
thousand and eight, the election of Barack Obama, Democrats in
North Carolina have gotten a lot more closely aligned with
national Democrats. You know, they saw all that the formula
worked in two thousand and eight, and they've tried to
run the same playbook again and haven't been successful at
the national level since then.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, the North Carolina Democrat Party chair Anderson
Clayton's she says y'all a lot and she cusses. So
I think that's the outreach that's really going to woo
back those rural Trump voters. I think that's the point.
Speaker 2: Don't we call that dark woke?
Speaker 1: Now that's right, Yeah, dark woke? All right, So then
you've got another piece. This one's over by the way.
That one was at long Leaf Politics long leafpol dot com.
This is your latest column over at the Charlotte Observer.
North Carolina's real constitutional crisis is the constitution itself? All right?
Explain that? How so? Yeah, And I.
Speaker 2: Felt a little funny writing that, you know, as a conservative,
you know, advocating for changing the state constitution feels radical,
but it's honestly not. You know, the US Constitution is
a very well thought out document. It was built to
last the test of time. But state constitutions just aren't
written that way, you know, not just in North Carolina,
but around the country. You know, state governments just have
so many more responsibilities that they're governing. Documents do need
to be updated from time to time. You know, North
Carolina is on its third one. It was written in
the nineteen sixties, adopted in nineteen seventy, and it just
creates a lot of conflicts. You know, there's a difference
between a healthy tension, you know, and balance of powers,
checks and balances, and just kind of bureaucratic messes. You know,
we've got ten independently elected executive branch officials, which is
very different from at the federal level, you have one
unitary executive, the President of the United States. We don't
have that in North Carolina, and so that creates all
these kind of overlapping responsibilities that we see play out
in court cases, you know, most notably the recent one
over who gets to appoint people to the state Board
of Elections.
Speaker 1: Right, which Josh Stein has won in the latest legal
round there. And this is not new. You mentioned also
McCrory fought with the legislature of his own party, Roy
Cooper obviously now Josh Stein, and so this the constant
litigation over what power does the executive have, what power
does the legislature have, and then what rules can the
legislature set for the executive. It's just it's been a
mess for for quite a while. Also, I think it's
important you mentioned that the state constitution last adopted back
in the seventh or seventy one, I guess it was,
and that was a different time. You know, Republicans were
a minority party. It was written completely by Democrats. It
was a course passed by voters, but there wasn't that
kind of partisanship that was you know, all over the
place up.
Speaker 2: At the capitol exactly. I mean that it was even
pre Jim Holdthauser. It was the first Republican governor in
a law in seventy plus years. So I don't think
people who wrote that constitution or so I'll say that
the people who studied the constitution did identify these issues.
I mean, they saw this coming if you go back
and read the reports from the nineteen sixties, they identified
these issues. But the General Assembly at that time did
not foresee a future in which there was a true
two party system in the state. And you know the
problem is not really the framework. It's more kind of
the language in the constitution that lays out the executive branch,
because it says, you know, the governor is responsible for
executing the laws and overseeing the executive brain branch. But
then it also says the General Assembly gets to decide
what the duties are of all these different positions. And
so depending on how you interpret things, judges have ruled
one way or the other just because it it's so
vague and unclear what the system is actually supposed to be.
Speaker 1: So you mentioned this study commission. They did propose a
fix you write about that. They suggested reduce the number
of the executive officers, so the Council of State basically, right,
take it down from its current ten and reduce it
to a smaller number.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And I can't remember off the top of
my head which ones they would keep. I know, governor,
lieutenant governor, attorney general, Secretary of State, I believe, an auditor. Yeah,
those are the five. I'm actually working on a follow
up piece that we can talk about next week, where
I'm going to lay out my ideas for what the
constitution could look like to pick a lot of these problems.
Speaker 1: So the final question, though, is there any chance greater
than a snowball in hades that this would actually occur,
that a new constitution would be drafted?
Speaker 2: I would say slightly more than that. I mean, I
am not gathering any sort of momentum behind it. I
don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. However, I
mean there is kind of there have been an undercurrent.
People who who study constitutional law have been talking about
this a little bit for a while, but I don't
find it likely.
Speaker 1: If you are successful, my only request is to get
the word votainer inserted into the constitution to describe the
top vote getter, because vote getter is a terrible term,
so votainer. That's my only request. And then I'll help
if you put votainer in there. I'm on board.
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, we'll do it.
Speaker 1: All right, sounds good. Andrew Dunn appreciate your time, Sarah,
thanks so much. Thank you. All right, if you're listening
to this show, you know I try to keep up
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more transparent. All right, So, in Andrew Dunn's piece over
at the Charlotte Observer, his op ed from yesterday talking
about North Carolina's real constitutional crisis is the constitution itself.
He says the case is simply the most recent In
talking about the case is the Elections Board makeup and
who should appoint the members of the state Board of Elections.
Right now, it's under the governor. The legislature tried to
move it over to the auditor's office, the governor sued
and one at this stage, I believe there will be
an appeal. But this is just the latest in a
long line of political fights dressed up as legal disputes,
political fights dressed up as legal disputes, and it's not
going to be the last, because our constitution does not
settle power struggles, it actually creates them. He says. The
names keep changing, whether it's McCrory, Cooper, Stein, Purdue, whatever,
but the script doesn't. A new slate of officials takes office,
the legislature rewrites the rules, the governor sues the legislature,
and then the court picks a winner, and then we
hit the reset button and do it all again. These
are not one off clashes. They are symptoms of a
deeper breakdown and a sign that the state constitution needs
an overhaul. He says. State constitutions are different than the
federal one. State constitutions, he argues, is are meant to
be revised. They're meant to be rewritten and adapted. We
are on our third Constitution. I think a lot of
people don't realize that we adopted this thing only like
fifty years ago, fifty five years ago. The framers of
the US Constitution envisioned divided government, but the people who
wrote the North Carolina version did not. And the system
they drew up doesn't work well in a partisan environment.
As I went over with Andrew, this thing was written
at a time when Democrats had a hammer lock on
the legislature, the courts, and the executive right there were
there were no Republicans elected to the governor's mansion since Reconstruction.
Between Reconstruction, so the Civil War, all the way through
the adoption of the the latest constitution that we're operating under,
Democrats controlled. Well, I mean after they you know, staged
their coup out in Wilmington, murdered some people and used
the news and Observer and allied media to threatened and
threaten and intimidate Republicans and and black voters into you know,
not running for office, not voting for Republicans, that sort
of stuff. So, I mean, they they had a hammerlock
on the state, complete dominance. So when they wrote the
constitutional provisions, they were looking at it through this frame
of one party control. We're in charge, and so the
stuff that the power dynamics there, to quote a term
that Democrats and the left are very familiar with, the
power dynamics there are between the branches with no attention
paid to another political party controlling one of these branches
and then rewriting the rules and moving responsibilities around to
rob them from a governor and less. Do you think
that that is strictly a Republican phenomenon. It is not.
Democrats actually started doing it as soon as a Republican
finally won a statewide office on Council of State. Holshauser's
governor Jim Martin as governor first lieutenant governor. The lieutenant
governor had virtually all of his powers stripped away when
Martin first won. That's how Democrats treated any Republican who
won a statewide office like that. There is a difference
between checks and balances and or organizational dysfunction. He says,
one has a healthy tension between branches of government. The
other creates legal nightmares. And that's exactly what we are
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just in the last oh, probably five hours or so,
I've become an expert on the Canadian electoral system, So
feel free to ask me any questions. I'm amazed how
many Canadian electoral experts there actually are on social media.
I had no idea. But then again, I am usually
surprised at the broad knowledge of so many people, from
you know, deep water submersibles to weather balloons drifting across
the country. Just a lot of people with really really
deep understanding of a lot of issues. So no, I
recognize the limitations I have. I do not follow Canadian
politics at all. I still blame them for the Geese,
and I think rightfully so, and that's enough. So I
am aware of what's been going on up there, kind
of tangentially. I watch pretty regularly. I'll watch the Jordan
Peterson podcast, and he has discussed the Canadian elections with
some guests over the last few months. This is not
a good thing for Canada. In my opinion, but they
shouldn't care because I'm an American and frankly, I don't
care really what their opinion is on much. So No,
not even syrup or hockey gravy. Nope, not even gravy
on French fries. I don't even really care about that.
I really don't care what Canadians think about anything. They
are their own country. I'm not saying that to be
mean or anything. I just think, you know, you do
you and apparently Canada doing itself no favors. Yeah, they're
going to do a number on themselves. They have returned
the Liberal Party to power kind of sort of. It's
a little bit more nuanced than that, only because the
parliamentary electoral system is completely bananas. The Liberal Party has
won the federal election in Canada, a culminating a process
marked by US President Donald Trump's threats on a trade
war and of making that country the fifty first American state,
which was just a joke, hahaha. It costs the Conservatives
their election. Maybe I don't know, I'm not an expert,
but the polling seems pretty clear. Like you look at
the trend lines and two major things, well three major
things happened. First off, Prime Minister blackface Trudeau resigned and
put in place Mark Carney, who is I'm pretty sure
he's like, I'm not sure you could find a better
example of like the globalist, leftist, deletest guy than this guy.
But that's what they wanted. The heart wants what it
wants in Canada, and so they installed this dude to
finish out Trudeau's term. And then they hold the elections.
This guy, Mark Carney, as far as I know, no
experience working in carnivals. But he wins. He wins again,
and so now he is going to be sort of
in charge. And I say sort of because he's gonna
need some coalition of the minority parties that all also
took hits. So Trudeau resigns names Carney. The second thing
that happens then is Trump starts, you know, making these
jokes or comments, whatever you want to call them. I
don't know if they I don't know if it's a joke.
I don't know if he was serious. I don't care either.
It doesn't matter to me because the impact on the
Canadian psyche was the same either way. They didn't apparently
view it as a joke. Much like I would think
that we wouldn't view it as a joke if another
country started talking about colonizing us, right, if they were like, yeah,
I'm gonna make America the well, I was gonna say, like,
how many states does Mexico have? Well, if Mexico started
talking about annexing us into it, right, we would take
it as unseerious, right obviously, but you know we would
also kind of take a little bit of a bridge
at it. No, I would why because I'm an American.
I don't want to be a Mexican, don't. I don't
like the idea that you're you know, banding about this
idea that you're going to absorb my country into yours.
So I have to live under your set of rules now,
because I don't like your set of rules. I prefer
mine and I suspect a lot of Canadians felt the
same way, particularly the boomers, the Canadian boomers that age demographic.
They reacted the worst to Trump's comments about making Canada
the fifty first state. And then of course was the
trade war, the tariffs and everything else. And the conservative
in the race, Pierre Polives polieve whatever, whatever doesn't matter
because he lost. He even lost his own seat. He
lost his own seat in parliament. I think they call
them ridings instead of districts or something. He lost his
own seat and Trump is being blamed for this. Now
you know me, I'm not looking to blame Trump for everything.
I don't have TDS. I don't view the world through
the prism of Donald Trump. I have no idea if
if this was an anti Trump vote, it could have been,
because there are a lot of people that view everything
through the prism of Donald Trump. In Canada being packed
with a bunch of lefties, they probably do view everything
through the prism of Trump, because that's kind of the
hallmark of being a lefty. Even though Trump's policies populist
policies are actually more like the old Democrat policies in America.
They are more of like a Democrat kind of infused
ideology than a conservative one, which was one of the
reasons I didn't want Trump to be the Republican nominee
all three times. I lost that argument all three times.
So the Liberal Party leader Mark Carney remains in the job.
He gets to form a new government with a new cabinet,
but it is unclear if the Liberals will have a
majority in the Parliament, or whether they will need to
look for alliances with the other minority parties, which now
at this hour does appear to be the case. Where
is it here? Well, okay, this is the ap Canadians
voted for all three hundred and forty three members of
the House of Commons, one for each constituency, and a
party needs one hundred and seventy two seats for a majority.
The Prime Minister is then chosen by Parliament rather than
elected directly by the voters. Okay, so this was not
some sort of a nationwide race between two guys. The
current Liberal leader is Carney, who was sworn in on
March fourteenth as Prime Minister after Blackface Trudeau resigned. Now
he won a full term as the head of the government. Externally,
there was the Donald Trump effect. Internally, the new government
will still have to deal with issues like rising food
and housing prices and a surge in immigration. Think about this.
I think this is now the fourth election cycle that
the Liberals have won, despite the fact that food, housing,
and immigration are all surging. The price of food, the
price of housing, the number of immigrants coming into the country,
All of these things r out of control. People are like,
these are the biggest issues. Well, everybody but the boomers
like these are the biggest issues. So Carney is a
sixty year old economist educated in the US and England.
It was a Goldman Sachs executive. Then he started working
for the Central Bank of Canada in two thousand and
three as a deputy governor. He was then the head
of the Bank of Canada for five years and then
he headed to the Bank of England for seven years.
This is from the Daily Caller. Despite the Liberal victory,
voters denied the Liberal Party a majority govern as returns
project the rival Conservatives to score seats in the double digits.
As of this morning, the New York Times had called
one hundred and fifty four seats for Liberals, one hundred
and fifty two from the pre who held oh, they
held one fifty two. They picked up two seats. Conservatives
won one hundred and thirty one seats. That is up
from the one to twenty. So it's an interesting shift
that has occurred here where the other parties, the minority
parties like the Quebec separatists, those guys that want Quebec
to be a breakaway country or whatever they or province
or whatever. I don't know, Like I said, not an
expert on Canadian politics, but these other smaller parties they
were pulling in a couple dozen seats apiece, and voters
now have sort of made this break to almost a
two party kind of a model. So as much as
they don't want to be America, they're starting to kind
of vote like it. The center right Party is also
leading in an additional twelve seats that could bring its
grand total up to one forty three, and that means
that the Liberals are going to have to build a
coalition with some of these minority parties. The Bloc Quebecua,
a regional party which only fields candidates in the French
speaking province of Quebec, won the third most seats in parliament.
They lost ten. The left wing New Democratic Party the NDP,
they finished in fourth. They suffered a double digit seat loss,
and now they are risk at risk of losing their
official party status, probably because they backed Trudeau's last minority
government in twenty one through twenty four. So if you're
an NDP voter and your MDP guys keep siding with
the Liberals like what's the point of being in that party,
being the liberal party, and that's where they threw their
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was looking at a chart here from the polling out
of Canada a most important factors when deciding to vote,
and it's broken down by age cohorts. Basically, you know generations,
So you got your sixty and over and then forty
five to fifty nine, thirty to forty four, eighteen to
twenty nine, so you got like fifteen year intervals there.
So among the sixty in overcrowd in Canada, the number
one factor for them when they went to go vote yesterday,
the number one factor was dealing with Donald Trump number one.
That's the thing that motivated them the most. Number two,
reducing your cost of living number three, improving Canada's healthcare system.
The worst, The lowest response for the boomers was making
Canada a better place to live. Yues, they think it's
fantastic already. Maybe I don't know. That was the worst
or the lowest response. Second lowest, making housing more affordable,
right because they got their homes. Protecting public services and
managing the federal budget deficit and debt were the the
other factors. But when you look at all of the
other age demographics, literally all of them. Their number one
responses were reducing the cost of living. That was number
one for all of them, every other cohort number one.
And then they split all of their responses among the
different categories except for the young people ages eighteen to thirty. Basically,
so if you were in your twenties, dealing with Donald
Trump was like among the lowest, so as the group
as the cohorts. When you look at this bar chart,
you see that as the respondents get older, the anti
Trump factor gets larger. Each cohort steps up, you know,
in the bar, like each bar for the millennials than
the Gen z's, and then the Y and Gen X
and boomers like each one goes up. So the older
you are the bigger factor Donald Trump was in your vote.
That's insane, people, Canada, That's insane. Jonathan Martin, writing at Politico,
He says, for months now, the dynamic of Monday's federal
election seemed enough to grasp, seemed easy enough to grasp
on either side of the border. A campaign that had
been a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's increasingly
unpopular decade long tenure had once Trudeau stepped down become
a vote on who was best able to manage Donald
Trump his tariff arsenal and designs on annexing Canada. But
it isn't that simple. Canada has long had robust minor
parties that play a pivotal role in both provincial and
federal politics, most notably the left wing New Democratic Party
and the Block Quebec HAH, which advocates for Quebecian nationalism
Quebec Owen, Quebec Quebecian whatever. The effect of Trump's existential
threat has been to marginalize these parties, to render purity
politics or domestic questions as a bit like the clogged
sink disposal when the house is on fire. So they're
saying Trump is the house fire. Think about this. They
cannot afford their government right now. Is it is collapsing
under its own weight. It has gone down the path
of totalitarianism, and they think that Donald Trump is the
house burning down. Martin says it's hard to overstate how
stung Canadians are by the teriff threats and Trump's incessant
talk of taking over their country an increasingly unfunny riff.
He repeatedly he repeated again recently in the Oval Office
after not saying it for a few weeks. Basically, they
feel betrayed. They feel betrayed, and Gary says Canada wants
to be part of England again before anything to do
with the US. Let them go full socialists. That well,
they're on our border. And I have never had a
problem with the Canadians. I never really mocked them, except
you know, for their pay, but then their penny became
more valuable than ours and so joke was on me.
But I don't have any ill will towards the Canadians.
I would prefer to not have a hostile country on
my border. That's a very nice luxury to have, you know,
peaceful trading partners. People can you know, go across the
border back and forth and such. I've seen all those
movies from the seventies and eighties up in Detroit where
the kids go across the bridge to get beers and such.
I've seen it. So there's value in that. That's not
to say that, you know, they get to walk all
over us and everything else. I would just have preferred
that there'd be somebody on that leading that country that
was trying to course correct away from the socialism. But
as I said, the voters chose poorly. Mark Tiessen, who
is a co host of the What the Hell Is
Going On podcast and also former George W. Bush guy
he's a lawyer, says, if Canadians are so foolish that
they let trump hatred convince them to give Liberals a
disastrous fourth term, they have nobody to blame but themselves.
And they re elected Trudeau after he made Canada the
most locked down country in the world, long before Trump returned.
Pathetic excuse for a country. Whether you believe the tariffs
or Trump's mouth swung the election against the Conservatives up there.
Whether or not you believe that doesn't matter. The end
result is still the same. That's where we are. But
Trump said he'd be you'd have an easier time negotiating
against the Liberal party, So there is that too. All right,
that'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much
for listening. I could not do the show without your
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