WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:03.560 I wanted to try to build something useful, but I 2 00:00:03.600 --> 00:00:06.360 didn't think I would build anything particularly great. You've said, 3 00:00:06.440 --> 00:00:10.119 probabilistically it seemed unlikely, but I wouldn't to at least try. 4 00:00:11.039 --> 00:00:13.359 So you're talking to a room full of people who 5 00:00:13.359 --> 00:00:16.879 are all technical engineers, often some of the most eminent 6 00:00:17.359 --> 00:00:19.280 AI researchers coming up in the game. 7 00:00:20.600 --> 00:00:25.519 Okay, I I think we should. I think I like 8 00:00:25.559 --> 00:00:27.440 the term engineer better than researcher. 9 00:00:27.800 --> 00:00:32.560 I suppose that if there's some fundamental algorithmic breakthrough, it's 10 00:00:32.600 --> 00:00:34.439 a research Otherwise it's engineering. 11 00:00:35.039 --> 00:00:37.799 Maybe let's start way back when you were This is 12 00:00:37.840 --> 00:00:40.920 a room full of eighteen to twenty five year olds. 13 00:00:41.119 --> 00:00:44.880 Excuse younger, because the founder set is younger and younger. 14 00:00:45.359 --> 00:00:47.719 Can you put yourself back into their shoes? 15 00:00:47.960 --> 00:00:52.840 When you were eighteen nineteen learning to code, even coming 16 00:00:52.880 --> 00:00:55.759 up with a first idea for ZIP too, What was 17 00:00:55.799 --> 00:00:56.520 that like for you? 18 00:00:56.719 --> 00:00:56.960 Yeah? 19 00:00:56.960 --> 00:01:00.759 Back in ninety five, I was basically choice of either 20 00:01:00.880 --> 00:01:04.879 do Grass studies PhD a Stanford and material science actually 21 00:01:04.879 --> 00:01:08.159 working on ultra capacities for potentially use in electric vehicles, 22 00:01:08.239 --> 00:01:10.599 essentially trying to solve the range problem for electric vehicles, 23 00:01:11.319 --> 00:01:14.359 or try to do something in this thing that most 24 00:01:14.359 --> 00:01:16.920 people have never heard of called the Internet. And I 25 00:01:16.959 --> 00:01:19.400 talked to my professor, was Bill Nicks in the material 26 00:01:19.439 --> 00:01:21.760 science problement, and I said, can I defer for a 27 00:01:21.840 --> 00:01:25.680 quarter because this will probably fail and then I'll need 28 00:01:25.719 --> 00:01:27.519 to come back to college. And then he said, this 29 00:01:27.560 --> 00:01:30.359 is probably the last conversation we'll have, and he was right. 30 00:01:30.439 --> 00:01:32.319 But I thought things would most likely failed, not that 31 00:01:32.359 --> 00:01:33.599 they would most likely succeed. 32 00:01:33.719 --> 00:01:34.560 And then in. 33 00:01:34.560 --> 00:01:38.079 Ninety five I wrote, basically, I think the first or 34 00:01:38.079 --> 00:01:42.040 close to the first maps, directions, Internet, white pages and 35 00:01:42.120 --> 00:01:45.000 yellow pages on the Internet. I just wrote that personally, 36 00:01:45.200 --> 00:01:46.680 and I didn't even use website, but I just read 37 00:01:46.719 --> 00:01:50.480 the boot directly because I couldn't afford and I could 38 00:01:50.719 --> 00:01:55.400 afford a t one. The original office was on Firman 39 00:01:55.439 --> 00:01:58.799 Avenue in Palelto. There was like an ISP on the 40 00:01:58.799 --> 00:02:02.319 floor below. I rolled a hole through the floor and 41 00:02:02.519 --> 00:02:05.959 just ran a land cable directly to the ISP, and 42 00:02:06.200 --> 00:02:08.960 my brother joined me and another co founder of Greg Curry, 43 00:02:08.960 --> 00:02:11.319 who passed away. And at the time we couldn't even 44 00:02:11.360 --> 00:02:13.680 afford a place to stay, so we just The office 45 00:02:13.719 --> 00:02:15.159 was five hunred bucks a months, so we just left 46 00:02:15.159 --> 00:02:17.520 in the office and then shouted the YMCA on page 47 00:02:17.560 --> 00:02:20.639 mill and al communo and yeah, and I guess we 48 00:02:20.719 --> 00:02:23.360 ended up doing a little bit of a useful company 49 00:02:23.599 --> 00:02:26.159 was up to in the beginning, and I did build 50 00:02:26.199 --> 00:02:31.319 a lot of really really good software technology, but were 51 00:02:31.360 --> 00:02:35.039 somewhat captured by the legacy media companies and that night 52 00:02:35.120 --> 00:02:39.080 rout or New York Times, the host whatnot were investors 53 00:02:39.199 --> 00:02:43.120 and customers and also on the board. So I kept 54 00:02:43.120 --> 00:02:45.240 wanting to use software in ways that made no sense. 55 00:02:46.000 --> 00:02:48.280 So I wanted to go direct to consumers anyway. As 56 00:02:48.319 --> 00:02:50.319 long story dwelling too much on z up too, But 57 00:02:51.120 --> 00:02:52.639 I really just wanted to do something useful on the 58 00:02:52.639 --> 00:02:56.000 Internet because I had two choices, do I PhD and 59 00:02:56.159 --> 00:03:00.000 watch people build the internet or help build the internet 60 00:03:00.039 --> 00:03:02.159 in some small way. And I was like, I guess 61 00:03:02.159 --> 00:03:03.879 I can always try and fail and then go back 62 00:03:03.919 --> 00:03:06.000 to grass Studies and away. 63 00:03:06.000 --> 00:03:07.840 That ended up being like reasonably successful. 64 00:03:08.439 --> 00:03:10.199 It sold for like three hundred million dollars, which is 65 00:03:10.199 --> 00:03:12.439 a lot at the time these days, that's I think 66 00:03:12.439 --> 00:03:14.599 the minimum impulse, but for an AI startup is like 67 00:03:14.599 --> 00:03:15.560 a billion dollars. 68 00:03:15.759 --> 00:03:16.159 It's like. 69 00:03:17.960 --> 00:03:21.479 There's so many freaking unicorns. It's like heard of unicorns 70 00:03:21.520 --> 00:03:23.400 at this point is a billion dollar situation. 71 00:03:24.199 --> 00:03:27.080 There's been inflation since, so quite a bit more money. 72 00:03:27.960 --> 00:03:32.000 Yeah, like could probably buy a burger for a nickel. 73 00:03:32.120 --> 00:03:34.400 Not quite, but yeah, there has been a lot of inflation. 74 00:03:35.039 --> 00:03:37.879 But at the high level in AI is pretty intense. 75 00:03:38.439 --> 00:03:41.879 As you've seen companies that are I don't know, less 76 00:03:41.879 --> 00:03:45.039 than a year old getting sometimes a billion dollar, multi 77 00:03:45.080 --> 00:03:48.800 billion dollar valuations, which I guess could pan out and 78 00:03:49.039 --> 00:03:51.759 probably will pan out in some cases, but it is 79 00:03:51.800 --> 00:03:53.639 I wordering to see some of these valuations. 80 00:03:54.520 --> 00:03:59.319 Yeah, what do you think, I'm pretty bullish. I'm pretty bullish, honestly, so. 81 00:03:59.520 --> 00:04:01.039 I think the people in this room are going to 82 00:04:01.039 --> 00:04:04.199 create a lot of the value that a billion people 83 00:04:04.240 --> 00:04:06.960 in the world should be using this stuff, and we're 84 00:04:07.000 --> 00:04:10.039 not even we're scratching the surface of it. I love 85 00:04:10.080 --> 00:04:13.400 the Internet story in that, even back then, you are 86 00:04:13.439 --> 00:04:15.919 a lot like the people in this room back then, 87 00:04:16.399 --> 00:04:20.360 in that you know, the heads of all the CEOs 88 00:04:20.399 --> 00:04:23.160 of all the legacy media companies look to you as 89 00:04:23.160 --> 00:04:26.000 the person who understood the Internet, and a lot of 90 00:04:26.040 --> 00:04:28.879 the world, the corporate world, like the world out large, 91 00:04:28.920 --> 00:04:31.680 that does not understand what's happening with AI, they're going 92 00:04:31.759 --> 00:04:34.360 to look to the people in this room for exactly that. 93 00:04:34.439 --> 00:04:36.319 It sounds like, what are some of the tangible lessons. 94 00:04:36.319 --> 00:04:38.319 It sounds like one of them is don't give up 95 00:04:38.360 --> 00:04:41.639 board control or be careful about have a really good lawyer. 96 00:04:42.199 --> 00:04:44.480 Well, I guess, well, the first my first thought of 97 00:04:44.720 --> 00:04:48.079 the big really the mistake was having too much shareholder 98 00:04:48.160 --> 00:04:53.399 and board control from legacy media companies who then necessarily 99 00:04:53.439 --> 00:04:57.600 see things through the lens of legacy media, and that 100 00:04:57.800 --> 00:05:00.319 they'll make you do things that seems sense full to 101 00:05:00.360 --> 00:05:03.319 them but aren't really don't make sense within your technology. 102 00:05:03.800 --> 00:05:06.040 I know I should point out that I that I 103 00:05:06.399 --> 00:05:09.439 didn't actually first intend to start a company. I try 104 00:05:09.480 --> 00:05:12.160 to get a job at Netscape. I SIMI resume to 105 00:05:12.279 --> 00:05:15.360 Netscape and Mark Kandrison knows about this, but I don't 106 00:05:15.360 --> 00:05:17.959 think you gave us a myristhume. And then nobody responded. 107 00:05:18.399 --> 00:05:19.959 And then I tried hanging out in the lobby of 108 00:05:20.040 --> 00:05:22.600 Netscape see if I could like bump into someone, but 109 00:05:22.639 --> 00:05:24.639 I was like too shy to talk to anyone. So 110 00:05:24.680 --> 00:05:26.879 I'm like, man, this is ridiculous. So I'll just write 111 00:05:26.920 --> 00:05:28.639 sof for myself and see how it goes. So it 112 00:05:28.680 --> 00:05:30.040 wasn't actually from the stand point, if I want to 113 00:05:30.040 --> 00:05:31.439 start a company, I just want to be part of 114 00:05:31.439 --> 00:05:35.360 building the Internet in some way. And since I couldn't 115 00:05:35.360 --> 00:05:37.319 get a job at an area company, I had to 116 00:05:37.319 --> 00:05:42.560 start a in area company anyway. The AI will so 117 00:05:42.720 --> 00:05:47.680 profoundly change the future, it's difficult to fathom how much. 118 00:05:48.040 --> 00:05:54.399 But at the economy is, assuming we don't things don't 119 00:05:54.399 --> 00:05:58.519 go awry, and like AI doesn't kill us all in itself, 120 00:05:59.000 --> 00:06:05.560 then you'll see ultimately an economy that is not ten 121 00:06:05.600 --> 00:06:08.120 times more than the current economy. Ultimately, if we become 122 00:06:08.199 --> 00:06:14.240 say or whatever, our future machine descendants, or but mostly 123 00:06:14.319 --> 00:06:19.680 machine descendants become like a ship scale to civilization or beyond, 124 00:06:20.199 --> 00:06:25.920 we're talking about an economy that is thousands of times, 125 00:06:26.199 --> 00:06:30.839 maybe millions of times bigger than the economy today. Yeah, 126 00:06:31.040 --> 00:06:32.319 I did feel a bit like when I was in 127 00:06:32.399 --> 00:06:34.399 DC taking a lot of flag from getting rid of 128 00:06:34.519 --> 00:06:37.800 waste and fraud, which is an interesting side quest as 129 00:06:37.839 --> 00:06:38.519 side quests go. 130 00:06:39.199 --> 00:06:41.240 But I've got to get back to the main quest. 131 00:06:41.800 --> 00:06:43.560 Yeah, i gotta get back to the main quest here, 132 00:06:43.959 --> 00:06:46.199 So back to the main quest. But I did feel 133 00:06:46.199 --> 00:06:49.240 a little bit like this. It's like fixing the government. 134 00:06:49.279 --> 00:06:52.120 It's kind of say, the beach is dirty and there's 135 00:06:52.120 --> 00:06:54.839 some needles and vcs and like trash, and you want 136 00:06:54.839 --> 00:06:57.439 to clean up the beach. But then there's also this 137 00:06:57.560 --> 00:07:01.639 like thousand foot wool of water, which is tsunami of AI. 138 00:07:02.199 --> 00:07:04.560 And how much does cleaning the beach really matter if 139 00:07:04.600 --> 00:07:06.800 you got a thousand foot tsunami about to hit. 140 00:07:07.839 --> 00:07:08.399 Not that much. 141 00:07:09.759 --> 00:07:12.000 Oh well, we're glad you're back on the main quest. 142 00:07:12.040 --> 00:07:13.000 It's very important. 143 00:07:13.240 --> 00:07:15.720 Yeah, back to the may quest. Building technology, which is 144 00:07:15.759 --> 00:07:18.199 what I like doing. It's just so much noise like this. 145 00:07:18.360 --> 00:07:21.000 The single noise ratio in politics is terrible. 146 00:07:21.240 --> 00:07:23.040 I live in San Francisco, so you don't need to 147 00:07:23.079 --> 00:07:23.920 tell me twice. 148 00:07:24.319 --> 00:07:26.639 Yeah, DC's I guess it's all politics in DC. 149 00:07:26.800 --> 00:07:32.160 But the if you're trying to build a rocket or cars, 150 00:07:32.279 --> 00:07:35.439 or you're trying to have software that compiles and runs reliably, 151 00:07:35.920 --> 00:07:38.800 then you have to be maximally true seeking or your 152 00:07:38.839 --> 00:07:42.439 software or your hardware won't work like you can't full 153 00:07:42.879 --> 00:07:46.079 like math and physics are rigorous judges. So I'm used 154 00:07:46.120 --> 00:07:49.199 to being in a maximally true seeking environment and that's 155 00:07:49.199 --> 00:07:52.319 definitely not politics. So I'm good, glad to be back 156 00:07:52.319 --> 00:07:53.319 in technology. 157 00:07:54.079 --> 00:07:56.360 I guess I'm curious going back to the zip to moment, 158 00:07:56.680 --> 00:07:58.959 you had hundreds of millions of dollars or you had 159 00:07:58.959 --> 00:08:01.279 to exit a worth millions of dollars. 160 00:08:01.399 --> 00:08:02.839 I got twenty million dollars, right. 161 00:08:03.480 --> 00:08:06.399 Okay, so you solved the money problem at least, and 162 00:08:06.480 --> 00:08:09.319 you basically took it and you rolled. You kept rolling 163 00:08:09.399 --> 00:08:13.600 with X dot Com, which in PayPal and Confinity. 164 00:08:13.680 --> 00:08:15.600 Yes, I kept the chips on the table. 165 00:08:16.040 --> 00:08:18.600 Yeah, so not everyone does that. 166 00:08:18.800 --> 00:08:20.399 A lot of the people in this room will have 167 00:08:20.439 --> 00:08:23.240 to make that decision. Actually, what drove you to jump 168 00:08:23.279 --> 00:08:24.040 back into the ring? 169 00:08:25.439 --> 00:08:25.720 O Thay? 170 00:08:25.920 --> 00:08:28.519 I felt for Up too. We'd both like incredible technology 171 00:08:28.519 --> 00:08:31.680 but never really got used. I think, at least from 172 00:08:31.720 --> 00:08:34.759 my perspective, we had better technology than say Yahoo or 173 00:08:34.759 --> 00:08:38.320 anyone else, but it was constrained by our customers. And 174 00:08:38.559 --> 00:08:41.120 so I wanted to do something that where okay, we 175 00:08:41.120 --> 00:08:43.720 wouldn't be constrained by our customers, go direct consumer. And 176 00:08:43.759 --> 00:08:47.240 that's what ended up being like X dot Com PayPal, 177 00:08:47.519 --> 00:08:52.360 essentially X dot Com merging with Confinity, which together created PayPal, 178 00:08:52.559 --> 00:08:56.159 and then that actually the sort of PayPal Diespora has it. 179 00:08:56.159 --> 00:08:59.639 It might have created more companies then so more companies 180 00:08:59.679 --> 00:09:03.039 than probaly any anything in the twenty first century, so 181 00:09:03.039 --> 00:09:06.159 many talented people were at the combination of Confinity X 182 00:09:06.200 --> 00:09:08.879 dot com. So I just wanted to, like I felt, 183 00:09:08.879 --> 00:09:11.440 we got our wings clift somewhat with ZIP two, and 184 00:09:11.440 --> 00:09:13.159 it's okay, what if our wings are clipped and we 185 00:09:13.279 --> 00:09:16.440 go direct to consumer and that's what PayPal ended up being. 186 00:09:17.200 --> 00:09:20.759 But yeah, with I got that twenty million dollar check 187 00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:24.039 for my share of ZIP two. At the time, I 188 00:09:24.080 --> 00:09:27.720 was living in a house with four housemates, and I 189 00:09:27.799 --> 00:09:30.840 had a ten grand in the bank, and then this 190 00:09:31.000 --> 00:09:34.000 check arrived in the mail, of all places in the mail, 191 00:09:34.120 --> 00:09:37.000 and then now then my bank bounce went from ten 192 00:09:37.399 --> 00:09:40.480 to twenty million and ten thousand. Okay, seluck to pay 193 00:09:40.559 --> 00:09:42.720 taxes on that at all. But then I ended up 194 00:09:42.720 --> 00:09:45.840 putting almost all of that into x dot com and 195 00:09:45.919 --> 00:09:48.360 as you said, just keeping almost all the chips on 196 00:09:48.399 --> 00:09:48.840 the table. 197 00:09:49.600 --> 00:09:53.240 And yeah, and then after PayPal was like, I was 198 00:09:53.279 --> 00:09:53.759 curious as to. 199 00:09:53.799 --> 00:09:56.840 Why we had not sent anyone to Mars, and I 200 00:09:56.919 --> 00:09:59.080 went on the NASA website to find out when we're 201 00:09:59.120 --> 00:10:02.000 sending people tomorrow, and there was no date. I thought, 202 00:10:02.000 --> 00:10:04.919 maybe it's just hard to find on the website, but 203 00:10:05.000 --> 00:10:07.600 in fact, there was no real plan to send people 204 00:10:07.600 --> 00:10:11.159 to Mars. So then I've come to this is such 205 00:10:11.200 --> 00:10:12.559 a long story, so I don't want to take up 206 00:10:12.559 --> 00:10:14.320 too much time here, but I. 207 00:10:14.279 --> 00:10:16.039 Think we're all listening with rapt attention. 208 00:10:16.639 --> 00:10:17.159 So I was. 209 00:10:17.159 --> 00:10:19.679 Actually I was on the long end of Expressway with 210 00:10:19.720 --> 00:10:22.360 my friend day O Ressi. We were like housemates in college, 211 00:10:22.840 --> 00:10:24.679 and Daa was asking me what I'm what we're gonna do? 212 00:10:24.799 --> 00:10:26.840 What am I gonna do after a PayPal and I 213 00:10:26.879 --> 00:10:28.919 was like, I don't know. I guess maybe I'd like 214 00:10:28.919 --> 00:10:31.360 to do something philanthropic in space, because I didn't think 215 00:10:31.360 --> 00:10:33.840 I could actually do anything commotional in space because that 216 00:10:33.840 --> 00:10:37.559 seemed like the purview of nations. But I'm curious as 217 00:10:37.600 --> 00:10:40.000 to when we're gonna send people to Mars. And that's 218 00:10:40.000 --> 00:10:41.519 when I was like, oh, it's not on the website, 219 00:10:41.559 --> 00:10:45.000 and I started digging. There's nothing on the NAST website. 220 00:10:45.039 --> 00:10:48.519 So then I started digging in and I'm definitely summarizing. 221 00:10:48.000 --> 00:10:48.519 A lot here. 222 00:10:48.600 --> 00:10:52.279 But my first idea was to do a philanthropic mission 223 00:10:52.320 --> 00:10:56.480 to Mars, Cooled Life to Mars, where would send a 224 00:10:56.519 --> 00:11:00.919 small greenhouse with CS and dehydrated nutrient gael Land out 225 00:11:00.919 --> 00:11:03.600 our mosque and grow hydrate the jel and then you 226 00:11:03.720 --> 00:11:06.720 have this great sort of money shot of green plants 227 00:11:06.759 --> 00:11:09.399 on a red background. For the longest time, I by 228 00:11:09.440 --> 00:11:11.039 the way, I didn't realize money shot. I think is 229 00:11:11.039 --> 00:11:13.600 a porn reference. But anyway, the point is that would 230 00:11:13.639 --> 00:11:15.960 be the great shot of green plants on a red background, 231 00:11:16.080 --> 00:11:18.919 and to try to inspire a NASA and the public 232 00:11:19.480 --> 00:11:22.399 to Santa astronauts to Mars. As I learned more, I 233 00:11:22.480 --> 00:11:25.240 came to realize along the way. By the way, I 234 00:11:25.279 --> 00:11:27.799 went to Russia in two thousand and one and two 235 00:11:27.840 --> 00:11:32.200 thousand and two to buy ICBMs, which is that's an 236 00:11:32.240 --> 00:11:34.559 adventure where you go and meet with Russian high command 237 00:11:34.559 --> 00:11:36.240 and say I'd like to buy some ICBMs. 238 00:11:37.240 --> 00:11:40.320 This was to get to space, yeah, as a rocket, not. 239 00:11:40.240 --> 00:11:42.799 To nuke anyone, but they had to as a result 240 00:11:42.879 --> 00:11:45.639 of armstroduction talks. They had to actually destroy a bunch 241 00:11:45.679 --> 00:11:49.039 of their big nuclear missiles. So I was like, how 242 00:11:49.039 --> 00:11:51.279 about if we take two of those minus the luke 243 00:11:51.759 --> 00:11:54.120 added an additional opper stage for Mars. 244 00:11:54.600 --> 00:11:56.080 But it was trippy. 245 00:11:55.960 --> 00:11:58.840 Being in Moscow in one of two thousand and one 246 00:11:58.919 --> 00:12:04.519 negotiating with the Russian military to buy icvms, like that's crazy, 247 00:12:07.200 --> 00:12:10.360 but the kept also raising the price on me, so 248 00:12:10.399 --> 00:12:12.559 that so literally it's like the opposite of what a 249 00:12:12.600 --> 00:12:15.519 negotiation to do. So I was like, man, these things 250 00:12:15.519 --> 00:12:17.759 are getting really expensive. And then I came to realize 251 00:12:17.799 --> 00:12:20.440 that actually the problem was not that there was insufficient 252 00:12:20.480 --> 00:12:22.639 will to go to Mars, but there was no way 253 00:12:22.679 --> 00:12:25.039 to do without breaking the budget, or even breaking the 254 00:12:25.120 --> 00:12:29.320 NASA budget. So that's where I decided to start SpaceX's 255 00:12:29.519 --> 00:12:33.159 SpaceX to advance rocket technology to the point where we 256 00:12:33.159 --> 00:12:34.799 could send people to Mars. 257 00:12:35.720 --> 00:12:37.360 And that was in two thousand and two. 258 00:12:38.039 --> 00:12:41.039 So that wasn't But you didn't start out wanting to 259 00:12:41.080 --> 00:12:44.320 start a business. You wanted to start just something that 260 00:12:44.440 --> 00:12:48.159 was interesting to you that you thought humanity needed, and 261 00:12:48.200 --> 00:12:51.799 then as you kat pulling on a string, it just 262 00:12:51.840 --> 00:12:54.759 the ball sort of unravels and it turns out this 263 00:12:54.840 --> 00:12:57.039 is could be a very profitable business. 264 00:12:58.519 --> 00:13:02.200 It is now, but it there had been no prior 265 00:13:02.279 --> 00:13:05.200 example of really a rocket startup succeeding, but there have 266 00:13:05.200 --> 00:13:08.720 been various attempts to do commercial rocket companies, and the 267 00:13:08.799 --> 00:13:12.919 whole failed again with SpaceX starting. SpaceX was really from 268 00:13:12.919 --> 00:13:15.000 the standpoint of I think there's a less than ten 269 00:13:15.039 --> 00:13:18.720 percent chance of being successful, maybe one percent, I don't know. 270 00:13:18.919 --> 00:13:23.519 But if a startup doesn't do something to advance rocket technology, 271 00:13:23.600 --> 00:13:27.000 it's definitely not coming from the big defense contractors because 272 00:13:27.039 --> 00:13:30.120 they just impedance smashed to the government, and the government 273 00:13:30.159 --> 00:13:34.080 just wants to do very conventional things. So it's either 274 00:13:34.120 --> 00:13:36.679 coming from a startup where it's not happening at all. 275 00:13:36.799 --> 00:13:39.480 So like a small chance of success is better than 276 00:13:39.480 --> 00:13:43.120 no chance of success, and so that yeah, so SpaceX 277 00:13:44.000 --> 00:13:47.600 start that in mid two thousand and two expecting to fail, 278 00:13:47.879 --> 00:13:50.919 like I said, probably ninety percent chance of failing. And 279 00:13:51.000 --> 00:13:54.080 even like when recruiting people, I didn't try to make 280 00:13:54.120 --> 00:13:56.600 out that it would I said, we're probably going to die, 281 00:13:57.120 --> 00:13:58.000 but a small. 282 00:13:57.799 --> 00:13:58.759 Chance we might not die. 283 00:13:59.679 --> 00:14:01.720 But this is the only way to get people to 284 00:14:01.759 --> 00:14:04.799 Mars and advanced the state of the art. And then 285 00:14:05.000 --> 00:14:07.120 I ended up being chief engineer of the rocket, not 286 00:14:07.200 --> 00:14:09.960 because I wanted to, but because I couldn't hire anyone 287 00:14:09.960 --> 00:14:13.960 who was good, So like none of the good sort 288 00:14:13.960 --> 00:14:15.879 of chief engineers would join because it's like this is 289 00:14:15.919 --> 00:14:18.440 too risky, you were going to die. And so then 290 00:14:18.480 --> 00:14:20.440 I ended up being chief engineer of the rocket, and 291 00:14:21.039 --> 00:14:23.039 the first three flights did fail, so it's a bit 292 00:14:23.080 --> 00:14:27.480 of a learning exercise there, and fourth one fortunately worked. 293 00:14:27.480 --> 00:14:29.559 But if the fourth one hadn't worked, I had no 294 00:14:29.639 --> 00:14:32.000 money left and that would have been it would have 295 00:14:32.039 --> 00:14:34.159 been curtained. So it was a pretty close thing. If 296 00:14:34.200 --> 00:14:37.360 the fourth launch of a Falcon not work, it would 297 00:14:37.360 --> 00:14:40.039 have been just curtains and we would have just been 298 00:14:40.159 --> 00:14:43.840 joined the graveyard of prior rocket startups. So it's like 299 00:14:43.919 --> 00:14:47.799 my estimate of success was not far off. We'd just 300 00:14:47.879 --> 00:14:50.000 be made it by the skin of our teeth. And 301 00:14:50.200 --> 00:14:53.200 Tesla was happening simultaneously, Like two thousand and eight was 302 00:14:53.200 --> 00:14:55.919 a rough year because at mid two thousand and eight 303 00:14:56.519 --> 00:14:59.000 were called Summer two thousand and eight, the third launch 304 00:14:59.039 --> 00:15:02.320 of Spacexit failed, a third failure in a row. The 305 00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:05.799 Tesla financing round had failed, and so Telsa was going 306 00:15:05.840 --> 00:15:10.080 bankrupt fast. It was just, man, this is a grim. 307 00:15:10.279 --> 00:15:13.080 This is going to be a tale of warning of 308 00:15:13.799 --> 00:15:15.240 an exercise in hubris. 309 00:15:15.720 --> 00:15:18.080 Probably throughout that period a lot of people were saying, 310 00:15:18.279 --> 00:15:21.639 Elon is a software guy, Why are you working on hardware? 311 00:15:21.960 --> 00:15:24.440 Why would you yeah, why would he choose to work 312 00:15:24.440 --> 00:15:24.759 on this. 313 00:15:25.159 --> 00:15:27.799 Harp said, so you can look at the because they're 314 00:15:27.799 --> 00:15:30.240 still the press of that time is still online. You 315 00:15:30.240 --> 00:15:33.240 could just search it. And they kept calling the Internet guy. 316 00:15:33.919 --> 00:15:35.879 So Internet Guy aka. 317 00:15:35.919 --> 00:15:40.279 Fool is attempting to build a rocket company that we 318 00:15:40.320 --> 00:15:41.679 got ridiculed quite a lot. 319 00:15:42.120 --> 00:15:45.240 And it does sound pretty absurd, like internet guy starts 320 00:15:45.399 --> 00:15:49.120 rocket company doesn't sound like a recipe for success, frankly, 321 00:15:49.799 --> 00:15:51.639 so I didn't hold against them. I was like, yeah, 322 00:15:51.799 --> 00:15:55.000 admittedly it does sound improbable, and I agree that it's improbable. 323 00:15:55.480 --> 00:15:58.559 But fortunately the fourth launch worked and a NASSA ordered 324 00:15:58.639 --> 00:16:02.279 us a contract supply the space station. And I think 325 00:16:02.279 --> 00:16:08.799 that was like maybe December twenty second or it was 326 00:16:08.799 --> 00:16:11.840 it like right before Christmas. Because even the fourth launch 327 00:16:11.879 --> 00:16:15.279 working wasn't enough to succeed, NASA also needed we also 328 00:16:15.320 --> 00:16:17.279 needed a big contract to keep us life. So I 329 00:16:17.320 --> 00:16:20.919 got that call from like the NASA team and I 330 00:16:21.000 --> 00:16:24.159 literally they said, we're rewarding you one of the contracts 331 00:16:24.240 --> 00:16:26.399 to re supply the space station. I like literally blurred 332 00:16:26.399 --> 00:16:29.440 it out, I love you guys, which is not normally 333 00:16:29.559 --> 00:16:32.960 what they hear because it's usually pretty sober. But I 334 00:16:33.000 --> 00:16:35.360 was like, man, this is a company saver and then 335 00:16:36.320 --> 00:16:39.960 we closed the Tesla financing round on the last hour 336 00:16:40.000 --> 00:16:41.720 of the last day that it was possible, which was 337 00:16:41.759 --> 00:16:45.279 six pm December twenty fourth, two thousand and eight. We 338 00:16:45.320 --> 00:16:47.399 would have bounced payroll two days after Christmas if that 339 00:16:47.480 --> 00:16:50.919 round hadn't closed. So that was a nerve racking end 340 00:16:50.919 --> 00:16:52.279 of two thousand and eight, that's for sure. 341 00:16:52.919 --> 00:16:55.639 I guess from your PayPal and zip two experience jumping 342 00:16:55.720 --> 00:17:00.799 into these hardcore hardware startups, it feels like one of 343 00:17:00.799 --> 00:17:04.039 the through lines was being able to find and eventually 344 00:17:04.119 --> 00:17:08.960 attract the smartest possible people in those particular fields. What 345 00:17:09.440 --> 00:17:11.160 would the people in this room like some of the 346 00:17:11.240 --> 00:17:12.880 most of the people here I don't think have even 347 00:17:13.200 --> 00:17:16.000 managed a single person yet, they're just starting their careers. 348 00:17:16.359 --> 00:17:19.319 What would you tell to the elon who's never had 349 00:17:19.359 --> 00:17:20.960 to do that yet. 350 00:17:21.839 --> 00:17:24.079 I generally think to try to be as useful as possible. 351 00:17:24.119 --> 00:17:27.920 It may sound try, but it's so hard to be useful, 352 00:17:28.000 --> 00:17:30.680 especially to be useful to a lot of people. Where 353 00:17:30.720 --> 00:17:32.839 you say, the area under the cove of total utility 354 00:17:32.920 --> 00:17:34.480 is like how much how useful have you been to 355 00:17:34.519 --> 00:17:37.880 your fela human beings? Times how many people? It's almost 356 00:17:37.880 --> 00:17:40.680 like the physics definition of true work. It's incredibly difficult 357 00:17:40.720 --> 00:17:42.480 to do that. And I think if you're aspire to 358 00:17:42.480 --> 00:17:47.319 do true work, your probably success is much higher. Don't 359 00:17:47.319 --> 00:17:49.079 aspire to glory, aspire to work. 360 00:17:49.680 --> 00:17:53.359 How can you tell that it's true work? Is it external? 361 00:17:53.440 --> 00:17:55.559 Is it like what happens with other people or what 362 00:17:55.599 --> 00:17:58.079 the product does for people? Like what is that for you? 363 00:17:59.119 --> 00:18:01.400 When you're looking for people come work for you? What's 364 00:18:01.440 --> 00:18:03.720 the salient thing that you look for or if they're 365 00:18:04.319 --> 00:18:04.920 certain question? 366 00:18:04.960 --> 00:18:07.839 I guess it's in terms of if you're in product, 367 00:18:07.920 --> 00:18:09.720 you just have to say, if this thing is successful, 368 00:18:09.759 --> 00:18:12.519 how useful will it be to how many people? And 369 00:18:12.599 --> 00:18:14.799 that's what I mean. And then you do you do whatever, 370 00:18:15.559 --> 00:18:17.720 whether you're CEO or any role in a startup, you 371 00:18:17.759 --> 00:18:20.319 do whatever it takes to succeed, and just always be 372 00:18:20.400 --> 00:18:25.559 smash smashing your ego like internalized responsibility like a major 373 00:18:25.599 --> 00:18:29.079 failure mode is when ego to ability ratio is double 374 00:18:29.079 --> 00:18:31.559 graded than sign one. If you if your ego to 375 00:18:31.559 --> 00:18:34.319 ability ratio is it gets too high, then you're going 376 00:18:34.400 --> 00:18:37.279 to basically break the feedback loop to reality. And in 377 00:18:37.279 --> 00:18:41.000 in a it terms, your your er you'll have you'll 378 00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:44.039 break your RL loop so you want you want to 379 00:18:44.079 --> 00:18:45.240 don't want to break your art. You want to have 380 00:18:45.240 --> 00:18:48.319 a strong r L loop, which means internalizing responsibility and 381 00:18:48.359 --> 00:18:51.079 minimizing ego, and you do whatever the task is, no 382 00:18:51.119 --> 00:18:54.160 matter whether it's grand or humble. That's like what I 383 00:18:54.240 --> 00:18:59.480 actually I prefer the term like engineering as opposed to research. 384 00:19:00.319 --> 00:19:02.880 I prefer the term and I don't actually don't want 385 00:19:02.920 --> 00:19:04.079 it to call XAI lab. 386 00:19:04.079 --> 00:19:05.359 I just want to be a company. 387 00:19:06.000 --> 00:19:10.880 Like It's like, what of the simplest, more straightforward, ideally 388 00:19:10.920 --> 00:19:13.039 lowest that ego terms are that those are generally a 389 00:19:13.079 --> 00:19:14.720 good way to go. You want you want to just 390 00:19:14.759 --> 00:19:17.960 close the loop on reality hard that's a super big deal. 391 00:19:18.359 --> 00:19:20.599 I think everyone in this room is really looks up 392 00:19:20.680 --> 00:19:24.359 to everything you've done around being a paragon of first 393 00:19:24.359 --> 00:19:28.319 principles and thinking about the stuff you've done. How do 394 00:19:28.400 --> 00:19:32.599 you actually determine your reality because that seems like a 395 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:34.440 pretty big part of it. 396 00:19:34.640 --> 00:19:36.480 Like other people who have never made. 397 00:19:36.319 --> 00:19:40.559 Anything, non engineers, sometimes journalists at time who've never done 398 00:19:40.559 --> 00:19:44.319 anything like they will criticize you. But then clearly you 399 00:19:44.400 --> 00:19:47.640 have another set of people who are builders, who have 400 00:19:48.279 --> 00:19:51.359 very high area under the curve, who are in your 401 00:19:51.359 --> 00:19:54.279