Speaker 1: What's going on. Thank you so much for listening to
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smartphone or tablet, And again, thank you so much for
your support. The news broke less than thirty minutes ago
that Donald Trump is now giving a ninety day pause
to all of the tariffs except China, and all the
tariffs are going to ten percent a baseline ten percent.
The market has responded quite positively, shooting up now it's
up twenty or yeah, twenty six hundred points. It looks
like over forty thousand right now. And I find myself,
you know, reading, you know, I've got some messages here
about it, and I'm seeing some of the the hot
takes that are being promulgated on the social media. And
it is as I said at the very beginning of
all of this, was that I'm going to wait and
see number one, but also number two. If you have
faith and trust in Donald Trump, then you're going to
you're going to believe whatever it is that he's saying
is the strategy or why we need to do whatever
the thing he's doing. I mean not in all cases.
I'm just saying on this, but there is a tend
to believe, a tendency to believe him because you like him.
And I get that. I understand that. I'm not putting
people down for that. There are people that hate him,
and it doesn't matter what he says, they will say
he's lying about everything. Right. I'm not in either of
those camps. Okay, I'm not in either of those camps.
As much as people want me to be in one
of those camps. I have a bit of oppositional defiance
disorder going on here. I don't. I've had it for
a very long time. Anti authoritarian, anti authority streaking me.
I don't do well with people bosso me around like that,
ordering me around and telling me I have to think
this way whatever. I bristle at that, and that's just me.
So I'm skeptical of these things that I hear, and
I wonder, you know, why are they doing that? What's
the rationale for it. How does this look as it
plays out? You know? And so now that Trump has
reversed course after and this has been this has been
a common pattern we have seen right where Trump will
say something or do something, everybody rushes to fill the zone,
defend the action or speech, and then of course the
other side rushes in to fill their zone, telling us
how it's the worst ever and how he's a racist
or whatever. And then you wait a little while and
it turns out, oh no, like the left was wrong.
But also then Trump reverses himself, and now his defenders
are having to fall back to a different position and
pretending oftentimes that that was the point the whole time,
when they don't know that. They just trust Trump. And
so if Trump takes this in a certain direction, advances
a policy, they rush to defend it. Trump falls back,
They rush to defend that too. They fall back with
him because they believe him. Again, not insulting anybody, I'm
not attacking people. I'm just saying that it's hard for
me to witness this pattern and just go along with it.
It's just not in my DNA, So I don't go
along with that pattern. So I'm curious to know what changed.
If Eric Erickson is correct, as I mentioned last hour,
that people in Trump world told him last night that
Trump had been he had spoken with a bunch of
his big donors from the business world, and they were
urging him to find some sort of an off ramp,
and that it would likely look like something like, oh,
we don't have time to negotiate all of these deals
because there's so many countries that want to negotiate the deals,
and that's why they're going to have to put a
pause on it. And that is precisely what Trump just did.
So I find that to be that's pretty persuasive evidence
that that, in fact was the rationale for this. There's
another reason, Colonel retired Colonel Kurt Schlickter from town Hall
dot Com, a lawyer, he said, I think the tariff
pause except for China was a very smart idea for
a reason that the talk show host down in California,
Hugh Hewitt, has also seen coming. I'm not sure I
agree with the legal reasoning, but there is a substantial
chance that the courts would have stopped the broad tariffs
using the same reasoning that led to the overruling of
the Chevron doctrine for various reasons. I don't think the
courts will overrule focused tariffs on China alone. So Trump
got ahead of it, got dozens of countries to the table,
and essentially rendered moot a potential precedent that would have
stripped him of tariff power. Also, nobody minds that the
markets are recovering, because that was one of the other
arguments that was that, like Senator Ran Paul was making,
there were a couple of Republicans that were now including
Tom Tillis from North Carolina, that were talking about clawing
back this power away from the executive branch and putting
it back into the hands of Congress alone. Because tariffs
are taxes, they argue that has to originate in the House.
And if the and I mentioned the Chevron doctrine, and coincidentally,
I've got a piece here by Jim Rickards audio that
I just played at the end of the last hour,
and he has a piece over at Yahoo Finance where
he talks about the Chevron doctrine and the ruling or
the rationale at the core of that ruling has the
potential to position America as a powerhouse when it comes
to various types of industries. But because of these bureaucracies,
these agencies that have been writing all of these rules
and regulations for decades, they have crippled us as a country.
And now with the Chevron doctrine overturned by the Supreme Court,
now if Trump does it correctly right, you could unleash
this potential. But I think this is an interesting argument
as well that hasn't been the focus of a lot
of this debate, which is whether or not the courts
would look favorably upon such a sweeping tariff regime. And
so what Schlickter is saying is that by now stripping
it all down, putting a baseline ten percent, in leaving
that alone, and then going after China alone, which is
really the worst offender here, then it makes it more
difficult for that argument to win in court. Even though
Schlichter says he doesn't think that that would win in court,
but he recognizes that there's enough of a doubt. I
should say that that that coupled with you know, the
market issue, coupled with the business leaders coming to Trump, like,
all of these factors all played a part in it,
Besson said today after they announced this pause, Besson said
this was driven by the president's strategy. This was his
strategy all along. You might even say he goaded China
into a bad position. They have shown themselves to the
world to be the bad actors, and we are willing
to cooperate with our allies and with our trading partners
who did not retaliate. So here again, do you believe
bessont do you believe that this was the strategy the
whole time or not? And I feel like people who
you know, just by default believe Donald Trump, they will
believe this, and people who don't believe Donald Trump will
not point out one piece of evidence like that we
hit Mexico and Canada with some additional tariffs beyond the
ten percent or whatever, so like I don't and they retaliated,
So I don't know if that was the standard, but look,
focusing the fire on China, I think that is the
right move, absolutely all right. If you're listening to this show,
you know I try to keep up with all sorts
of current events, and I know you do too, And
you've probably heard me say get your news from multiple sources. Why, Well,
because it's how you detect media bias, which is why
I've been so impressed with ground News. It's an app,
and it's a website, and it combines news from around
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Jeff says Pete. The egg prices are coming down, the
stock market is coming back. Now, what do the Democrats
have to complain about? That's a fair point. It's a
tough spot. Tough spot. Dwayne Patterson, who is the producer
of The Hugh Hewitt Show and host of Dwayne's World,
The podcast. Oh. He also follows me on Twitter. Nice okay,
He says, people who hate Trump, who will never get
Trump naturally don't understand. Today Trump forces the rest of
the free world to basically choose China or US. Seventy
five plus countries are choosing US. They are now agreeing
to renegotiate trade. Inevitably, we'll be better off in every
one of these deals, some marginally, but some a lot.
The only reason these negotiations are now in line to
happen are because of the tariffs. Now that they've committed
to deal and we're down to haggling over the price,
the tariffs can be suspended in good faith. Second, by
seventy five plus nations basically choosing US over China, the
commis are now more isolated, I said, the commies. Trump
is now going to squeeze them hard. Markets know China
decoupling has to happen. They've known it for a while.
The transition is well underway. This accelerates it. As for
that baseline ten percent tariff, consider that a global or
consider that a global insurance premium. When disaster happens, the
world comes to the US for help. Ten percent for
the big guy you might say, I see, I see
what he did there. If China truly is the are
the ones who play the long game, they'll have to
cave soon in order to be a player. Later their
economy will not be able to tolerate tariffs ratcheting up higher.
This whole tariff thing was always a move to deal
with China before having to deal with China later anyway,
but with a worse hand, to.
Speaker 2: Play Chinatown where they don't speak even English in that Chinatown.
Speaker 1: It's true, he told us. Then Kim says, if they
are treating us unfairly, he needs to stick with it
unless behind the scenes they've told him they swear they're
going to make it better. I believe him when he
says they've come to ask him to please make a deal.
That's the reason for the pause. So that's what I mean.
If you believe in don Trump, you will believe that
this was the strategy the whole time. And that's fine
because I don't know it wasn't. I'm not saying it wasn't.
I don't know if it was or was not, So
you were free to believe whatever you want to believe
on this. But my only request through low these many
years of radio hosting, is do not whiz on my
boots and tell me it's raining. That's all right, And
I'm not saying that's happening right now. I'm just that
that's my sort of my standard, right. I don't appreciate
people telling me lies and then when I can see
that the thing is not actually true. And again, I
don't know that any of this is not actually true.
It very well could be. This could have been the
play the whole way, and they kept it all under
wraps in order to have this moment. That's possible. That
is possible, But nobody knows that. Nobody on Twitter, right,
nobody in the audience, nobody in the studio except maybe
is but that's it. Nobody knew, Pete. I feel this
is from Trent, who says, Pete, I feel like most
of this was to show that the Emperor has no
clothes China. Maybe the other tariffs were to bring others
to the table, but China was always the goal. But
then again, I'm no Trump whisperer, see, And that's perfectly
fair the way Trent. Trent frames that, that is perfectly fair.
That's not peeing on my boots like He's just saying,
this is what I think might be the case, but
I don't know. And that's the thing I guess that
kind of irks me is people who express certainty about
the motivations of others, about a strategy that they had
no insight into, but are only looking at it in
real time as we are, and people can make, you know,
predictions about what could come. They could offer up theories
about what happened, fair enough, it's the certainty of the thing.
It's all over media too, you know. It's it's just
I don't know. I just I look at these things
in a little bit less certain way. I guess in
my old age. I'm I'm not old, but anyway, Timoteo says,
I like mister wonderful Kevin O'Leary. I played his SoundBite earlier,
but when it comes to China, he has a huge
axe to grind that maybe is that may be affecting
his views on tariffs on China. Here is the thought
I had last night. As you pointed out, early in
the tariff situation, wars have started like shooting. Wars have
started with tariffs. Back during the first year of the
Biden administration, there was an article that came out making
the case that we would be at war with China
within ten years. So the last thing Trump would want
to do is push China towards that end. Placing massive
tariffs on China might lead to that war, unless tariffs
are placed on the entire world, So China isn't singled out.
Now there is a dust up between Trump and Jijinping, who,
by the way, looks like Winnie the Pooh. Anyway, tariffs
can continue to be elevated against China and it will
be seen as a conflict of egos between Trump and
Winnie the Pooh rather than a prelude to war, even
while lowering tariffs on the rest of the world. I
would like to think that this was the strategy, or
it could be that Trump just bid off more than
he could chew. Yeah, I don't know the Hellia says.
I think Trump could have hedged on both sides. That's possible.
Thomas says. The mainstream media will not report it, but
China is in economic, military, and political turmoil. See I
know this, Thomas, because I have reported on this. Just
last week. I was talking about this very thing, and
you are correct. They are in no place to wage
to trade war with us in this country. Keep the
politicians out of this initiative. They are the source of
the problem. The government only knows how to waste our
money and knows nothing about negotiating anything. Well, they do
know how to break things, Thomas. That's what Russia always
told us, right, that's what the that's what the military does, right,
kill people and break things. They're pretty good at it.
So we should make China's main concern, sorry, we should
make China's main concern and focus how to feed one
point five billion Chinese three square meals a day. This
would change their focus and slow their expansionism and or
maybe even change regimes. That was what Remember there was
a story from George W. Bush. He talked about meeting
with the president I forget what his name was at
the time of China, and they were talking about like
what keeps you up at night, like the big things
that are you know, that are weighing on your mind
as this, you know, leader of this large nation. And
he said, you know, finding like a million jobs a
month for my people, Like that's the big thing, because
if people aren't working, they're not eating, you know, all right,
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video dot Org. I don't know who this guy is.
Let me see, I'm just reading all of the reactions here.
This is oh, okay, the co founder of yimby Democrats.
Yimbi means yes in my backyard. So this is, I
guess like a pro growth democrat. So basically a unicorn
and the same as armand Doma Luski. And he says,
call me crazy, but I think the markets are underreacting
to what is effectively an immediate cessation of trade between
the two largest economies on the planet. Yeah, I could
see that. I mean, it's uh, it's really Look, it's
not about the trade war, the tariffs or anything like that.
It's about the friends we made along the way. Okay.
Jim Rickards I mentioned him earlier, played a couple of
his soundbites from an appearance he had on the podcast
called Triggernometry. But he had a piece over at Yahoo
Finance the other day and that I happened upon while
I was doing research about this guy. And he says,
have we been lied to? America was never broke? He says,
the American public has long been told that the nation
is bankrupt, But according to former US intelligence advisor and
economic strategist Jim Rickards, the truth is far more complicated
and far more hopeful. He says, America is anything but broke,
and if you understand what's bound to happen next, you
could watch your own net worth soar in the years ahead.
As an aside, let me point out, I am not
a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I'm just
reading a story out of Yahoo Finance. Okay. Ricords, who
has advised the CIA, the Pentagon, and the US Treasury,
claims that the government has been sitting on an immense
under utilized national asset for over a century, one that
could now be tapped for the first time in generations.
It is due to the recent dismantling of the Chevron Doctrine,
a legal precedent that empowered federal agencies to override courts
and enact sweeping regulations. With its reversal by the Supreme Court,
control is shifting away from bureaucrats and back towards constitutional
and state level authority. Rickard says, quote Trump's Supreme Court
overturned the Chevron Doctrine, and it essentially gave so called
government experts kill shot power that the Chevron Doctrine did. Now,
for the first time in half a century, we can
go get our resources Rickard says the legal reversal could
signal the beginning of a massive realignment, one that restores
access two vast federal resources previously locked behind environmental red tape.
Estimated value one hundred and fifty trillion dollars, Not cash,
not gold, but something far more essential in our twenty
first century, strategic minerals and materials used in infrastructure, defense,
and energy. According to Rickards, this is more than an
economic shift, it's a political and cultural realignment. He says
we are entering a new era now with the regulatory
chokehold broken and political momentum building. He believes the nation
is poised to reclaim control over its own wealth, its
own future, and its destiny. He also talked about how
he believes we are in a recession. I played those
clips at the end of the last hour. But he
is also a fan of the tariffs and the thing
I talked about in the first hour, which was the
balanced trade economic model, which is a competing philosophy to
quote unquote free trade. Here is what he said regarding
the tariffs.
Speaker 2: Trump's putting all these tarists on its the best economic
policy you can think of. It's extremely good for the US.
I get in this debate all the time. I'll expand
on that a little bit. But when I have this
debate and I explain to people that my tarifts are good,
they say putting the AUS States to go, well, yeah, Jim, yeah,
but this is really going to be bad for Vietnam
and China and Malaysia. And I say, yeah, that's their problem.
You know that our job is to make America great again.
Tell Presidency to make China great again if he wants to,
let him figure out policies that actually work other than overborrowing,
real estate boom and corruption and skimming and a lot else.
So our job is to take care of America. And
you know, Kirstarmer can make the UK great again.
Speaker 1: That's all. That A slightly questionable statement.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but that's all. That's all fair. So looking at
from the American perspective, what we're seeing is a return
to something called the American system. It was invented by
Alexander Hamilton of seventeen ninety. You know, his problem was,
first Turasury secretary, we had revolutionary ward debt and state
debt that had kind of hung over from for the
creation of the United States, and one of the first
issues facing Congress is what do we do about all
this debt? And so the Congress said, well, that's easy,
will just default as the American way. And Hamilton said, no,
We'll borrow more, use that money to pay off the
old debt, and then we'll just keep borrowing and just
roll over the debt. And that was the creation of
the government securities market. It's been going strong for two
hundred and thirty years and called a ponzi, but you
know it works.
Speaker 1: So he likes the idea of all the tariffs. He's
on board with this. The wrap on the terror is
it's a sales tax on American people, right, That's what
I've always been told. He disagrees. Here's a great idea.
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com and make memories that'll last a lifetime. Going over
some of these comments from Jim Rickards from the Triggernometry podcast,
you talked about a whole bunch of stuff. It was
an hour long discussion, but on the tariff issue specifically,
one of the things that we have heard and I
have said and I believe was that is that tariffs
are paid by the consumers, the end user. It's a
sales tax on the American people. Record says that is
not true.
Speaker 2: In a TOWERFF transaction, you have three parties, could be more,
but at least three. You have the producer exporter in
China or Vietnam, et cetera. You have the importer who's
a wholesaler distributor, and then you have the consumer. So
we are going to put twenty percent tariffs on things.
That is going to raise the price, at least initially.
Who actually pays the tariff? What's the importer? The person
who takes the goods off the ship at the poor
Los Angeles has got to write a check to the
treasury for twenty percent of the value of those goods.
But who pays it? Economically, it is split between the
producer and the importer, or it's completely pushed back the
supply back down the supply chain to the producer. So
the importer says, hey, I just paid twenty percent more.
You need to lower your price twenty percent so that
when you or whatever the numbers say that when you
throw on the tarer if it comes out about the
same or the importer will eat it and inform of
reduced margins or profits. The original exporter or the producer
will eat it in terms of reduce profits or margins.
The one party that does not eat the tariff is
the consumer. There is no price increase.
Speaker 1: There is no price increase, he says, And then he
gave an analogy here.
Speaker 2: If Walmart or Costco or Target or Best Buy could
raise prices twenty percent, why wouldn't they just do it?
I mean, why do you need tiers to do that.
Of course you wouldn't raise prices. The reason they can't
is because the consumer can't pay it. The consumers tapped out.
You know, credit card lines are used up, Mortgage rates
have been high, hiring is dried up. There are a
lot of you know, inflation generally, we're still you know
the thing about the Biden inflation. They say, well, inflation
went down from it was nine point one percent in
June twenty twenty two, it's about three percent today. You know,
give or take cans bounce around a little bit. They say,
well inflation has come down, yeah, but the nine percent
never went away. That nine percent increase is still there.
The three percent increase is still there. Prices are still
going up. But when you know the financial television talking
hits that you know inflation is coming down and people
think prices are coming down, prices aren't coming down. If
inflation is going up at a slower level, but it's
still going up. And we're building on top of the
nine percent that we had in twenty twenty two, which
is the highest since the early nineteen eighties. So given
all those price increases which are now embedded, and the
other headwinds I described, people can't afford to pay higher prices,
like I say. If they could, they would have been
charged that already. So in other words, the tariff does
not fall on the consumer. It falls on the producer
or the importer, where it's split between them in some fashion.
So the idea of this inflationary is not true, and
the idea that it is a sales tax on consumer
is not true. It does it could affect margins further
up the supply chain, but not at the consumer level.
Speaker 1: So this is an argument and a position I have
never heard articulated. I'm not saying I believe this to
be true, but this is the other side of it.
This is the approach and the thinking of the balanced
trade advocates. He then predicts that the tariff regime, which
Donald Trump has now paused, will create high paying jobs
in America.
Speaker 2: You can sell whatever you want to the American people,
no problem, but build it here. Put your plant in
the United States because you got it instead of paying
the tires. If you're the producer, going back to what
I just said, the producer bears it. Well, if you
don't want to bear, jump over the tarafall. Put your
plant in the United States. Taiwan semi Conductor is spending
upwards of one hundred billion dollars building new fabusand fabrication
plants for semi conductors in the United States. Apple just
announced five hundred billion dollars of investment in the United States.
Now the US company, but they've been investing mainly in
China and Malaysia and elsewhere around the world. So Honda
announced that builling a major car manufacturing plant in the
United States. I love my friends, you know, in the
upscale zip codes they're driving Mercedes. I got a nice
German Cars. Said no, it's not it's made in South Carolina.
I stick to alleys because they actually are made in Germany.
They said, more and more of these cars are build
the Uni States. What we're seeing is stage two. This
is Letheiser two point zero. Robert Littheiser was the deput
US trade representative to Ronald Reagan. He did this in
the Japanese car industry in the early eighties. He saved
the US car industry, and the Japanese finally said, Okay,
we hear you. Because huge tariffs on them, do we
hear you? Will put our plants in the United States
in They're here.
Speaker 1: All right. So a couple of the people, there are
three brothers, Richmond, the Richmond brothers. Jesse Richmond wrote a
piece or wrote a book along with his two brothers
about the balanced trade economic model ending the unbearable costs
of America. That's what he is, what the title was,
and this is from This is an excerpt from Goodreads
talking about what the book is about. How should a
principal nation which believes in the benefits of mutually beneficial
trade respond to the predations of mercantilist trading partners and
imbalanced trade. Many argue that the response should be to
do little or nothing balance. I've never been one of those.
By the way, balanced trade argues that achieving the full
benefits of international trade requires an effective response. Although trade
deficits provide short term gains in consumption, these are combined
with long term losses in consumption, innovation, investment, employment, and power. Furthermore,
market mechanisms do not correct trade imbalances that result from mercantilism,
nor do they compensate for the long term shift in
production and consumption towards the mercantilist. Balancing trade can make
important short run and long run contributions to economic stability
and prosperity. And one of the best options, they say
in the book is the scaled tariff. By targeting countries
with which the US has a large current account deficit,
the scaled tariff would efficiently, legally and effectively balanced trade.
So that's the premise of the balanced trade argument. And
then there's this from Rachel Beauvard. She says, I am
a millennial. She's a writer and a conservative, and she says,
I'm a millennial who was raised in the institutional right.
I was waterboarded for years with free trade dogma and
Austrian economics. But the problem is the theory didn't line
up with the practical needs and realities. It's true, up
to a point. Markets are still the best sorting profit
making and intuiting institutions. Human behavior cannot be predicted or
control by policy makers. But the Austrians always pretend like
free trade simply exists in practice, when it never does.
Multilateral deals are full of special interest distortions. The World
Trade Organization did not work and diminished American sovereignty while
other nations head padded and then ignored it. The US
has been taken advantage of for years by not responding
in kind to nations getting rich off our planned industrial demise.
All of this was a policy choice. So let's use
policy as a tool to level set back to neutral.
If anything, She says, I'm a Rothbardian Murray rothbard In
that the World Trade Organization was a mistake, and bilateral
trade deals are clearly superior to the giant multilateral elite
priority pork fests that we have now. By the way,
this is one of the things always in this case,
whenever you're talking about these types of tariffs and deals,
the special interests are always swarming around, right, They're always
in the water, and they're they're lobbying and stuff to
try to get exemptions and carve outs and everything else.
So I guess from like a centralization perspective, much like
with the federal government versus state governments. If the lobbyists
just have to go, you know, on one trade deal
versus you know with like a world trade organization, one
big deal versus have to go and lobby every single
industry and every single country's deal, that becomes a harder
thing to do. We shall see, all right, that'll do
it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening.
I could not do the show without your support and
the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast,
so if you'd like, please support them too and tell
them you heard it here. You can also become a
patron at my Patreon page or go to dpetecleanershow dot com. Again,
thank you so much for listening, and don't break anything
while I'm gone.
Speaker 2: H m hmm.