WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:03.160 When we say who's in charge, we're usually wrong when 2 00:00:03.160 --> 00:00:05.719 we when we killed Salami, for example, the commander of 3 00:00:05.719 --> 00:00:08.439 the military, you know, we thought that would decapitate the IURGC. 4 00:00:08.679 --> 00:00:10.960 It didn't because he's not in charge. The people who 5 00:00:10.960 --> 00:00:13.119 are actually in charge are not big names. They call 6 00:00:13.199 --> 00:00:15.480 them sapahis or guardians that are in the background, that 7 00:00:15.519 --> 00:00:18.879 are controlling a lot of this stuff, not for ideological 8 00:00:18.920 --> 00:00:21.559 reasons as their number one reason. It's more about economic 9 00:00:21.600 --> 00:00:25.640 control and wealth generation for their for their inner circle. 10 00:00:25.760 --> 00:00:28.839 If the Iotola left, I feel very little with change. 11 00:00:33.640 --> 00:00:36.560 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes On Geopolitics. 12 00:00:36.600 --> 00:00:38.359 We've got a special one today. Of course, we're joining 13 00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:42.000 Nick mulroy, Jason Lyons, and special guest Jonathan Hackett. 14 00:00:42.320 --> 00:00:42.399 Uh. 15 00:00:42.479 --> 00:00:44.560 He's been on there, he's been Eyes On and Team 16 00:00:44.560 --> 00:00:48.320 House before, incredible episodes. Check them out for sure. He's 17 00:00:48.359 --> 00:00:52.479 a uh wrote this great book Iran Shadow Weapons, Covert Action, 18 00:00:52.600 --> 00:00:55.600 Intelligence Operation, Unconventional WARFRI. And I think he's a perfect 19 00:00:55.600 --> 00:00:58.679 guest for what's going on. What's been going on for 20 00:00:58.719 --> 00:01:02.479 a while, you know, last week so in Iran protests 21 00:01:02.520 --> 00:01:04.560 against the regime and stuff like that, they've seemed to 22 00:01:04.560 --> 00:01:08.200 turn violent. Over the last few days, the internet's been 23 00:01:08.239 --> 00:01:13.280 cut off countrywide. There's been like a lot of reports, 24 00:01:13.359 --> 00:01:16.280 varying reports of like how many people have been killed 25 00:01:16.280 --> 00:01:17.400 by the regime and stuff like that. 26 00:01:17.439 --> 00:01:19.120 It's like all the way up to a couple of thousand. 27 00:01:19.680 --> 00:01:21.920 They're saying that a lot of their hospitals are like 28 00:01:22.000 --> 00:01:24.480 overrun with people with gunshot wounds and stuff like that. 29 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:27.640 Jonathan has an intimate knowledge of what goes on in 30 00:01:27.719 --> 00:01:29.640 Iran and stuff, so I think he would have been 31 00:01:29.680 --> 00:01:35.519 a perfect guest for today. So thanks to me, Jonathan. 32 00:01:35.560 --> 00:01:36.120 What's up man? 33 00:01:36.120 --> 00:01:37.439 How are you good? 34 00:01:37.439 --> 00:01:38.079 How you guys doing? 35 00:01:38.079 --> 00:01:40.799 It's good to be here, good man. 36 00:01:41.480 --> 00:01:42.879 I mean, where do you want? Just want to start? 37 00:01:42.879 --> 00:01:44.879 You guys want to start like a basic on a TikTok, 38 00:01:45.079 --> 00:01:47.799 like what went down when and how it all popped off? 39 00:01:48.760 --> 00:01:52.239 Well, I could start with what I'm getting from media 40 00:01:52.280 --> 00:01:56.239 folks on the inside scoop if you will, like stuff 41 00:01:56.280 --> 00:02:01.760 that's not reported yet and obviously of interest. So apparently 42 00:02:03.319 --> 00:02:09.240 obviously there's significant protests, like over seventy cities. It appears 43 00:02:09.400 --> 00:02:15.120 that they have been identified as enemies of God now, 44 00:02:15.159 --> 00:02:19.080 which apparently and the Alexicon means you know open fire. 45 00:02:19.120 --> 00:02:23.000 It will when it comes to the besiege in the BIERGC. 46 00:02:23.800 --> 00:02:27.240 I think it's unknown how many have been killed, but 47 00:02:27.280 --> 00:02:32.759 I've seen reports size a thousand plus. I don't think 48 00:02:32.800 --> 00:02:35.319 people know, but I think there's a new scrubbing mechanism 49 00:02:35.360 --> 00:02:38.479 that uses AI to go through social media to try 50 00:02:38.520 --> 00:02:42.400 to identify more accurate numbers. But either way, it's really 51 00:02:42.439 --> 00:02:46.879 bad and for the protesters, I should say, and for 52 00:02:46.960 --> 00:02:48.680 the regime, which is a good thing of course, And 53 00:02:48.680 --> 00:02:52.280 I think Jonathan will get into all of the mechanisms 54 00:02:52.319 --> 00:02:55.560 that the regime has to stay in place. It's basically 55 00:02:56.199 --> 00:02:58.719 their main effort at all times, right, and they're just 56 00:02:58.759 --> 00:03:02.120 as concerned about their population, if not more so than 57 00:03:02.159 --> 00:03:08.400 even external threats. The other big factor I would throw 58 00:03:08.439 --> 00:03:12.000 out there for discussion with the group is, and this 59 00:03:12.120 --> 00:03:14.520 is now reported, so this is the public is that 60 00:03:14.560 --> 00:03:19.520 the administration is reviewing potential military options to enhance the 61 00:03:19.599 --> 00:03:23.960 protests in Iran. I would assume, although I don't know 62 00:03:24.159 --> 00:03:27.879 that there's already a pretty massive covert program going on. 63 00:03:28.680 --> 00:03:31.599 If not, there should be. I don't think that's the debate. 64 00:03:31.639 --> 00:03:33.759 I think the debates is whether they would use overt 65 00:03:33.759 --> 00:03:40.479 military efforts like strikes potentially on IRGC facilities or something 66 00:03:40.479 --> 00:03:47.159 that's directly associated with the security forces that are oppressing 67 00:03:47.199 --> 00:03:50.879 the people. I heard, and I think this is someone 68 00:03:50.960 --> 00:03:53.120 in reporting that the debates between the White House and 69 00:03:53.120 --> 00:03:55.719 the State Department. So the State Department's kind of of 70 00:03:55.840 --> 00:04:02.560 the mind that this won't help the protesters. It'll just potentially, 71 00:04:03.319 --> 00:04:05.479 you know, give the regime an out to say this 72 00:04:05.560 --> 00:04:08.840 is all US based, it's not real, et cetera. Hard 73 00:04:08.840 --> 00:04:10.879 to say that when it's extensive as it is, but 74 00:04:11.400 --> 00:04:13.280 they'll use it and potentially try to get people a 75 00:04:13.319 --> 00:04:16.959 rally around the flag, so to speak. And then I'm 76 00:04:16.959 --> 00:04:21.560 told that the White House has been very uh pleased 77 00:04:21.560 --> 00:04:24.040 with their use of military force in the second term 78 00:04:24.079 --> 00:04:26.959 to date and that they are war incline to use it. 79 00:04:27.120 --> 00:04:31.120 So there you go. Throw it back to you guys 80 00:04:31.160 --> 00:04:33.480 to hit those points. I think jonathan'ld be great to 81 00:04:33.480 --> 00:04:36.639 really talk about what the regime does to keep itself 82 00:04:36.720 --> 00:04:40.519 in power, because he's he's written some excellent books on 83 00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:43.519 the topic, and I think, as you said, the perfect timing, 84 00:04:45.439 --> 00:04:46.160 and he's a Murray. 85 00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:49.680 Yeah, yeah, almost our fire had to throw that out there. 86 00:04:49.759 --> 00:04:53.680 Yeah with that, yeah, yeah, So it's day fifteen of 87 00:04:53.759 --> 00:04:56.480 the protests, so that, as you're saying, Mick, it's very 88 00:04:56.480 --> 00:04:58.560 tough to know exactly how many are injured, how many 89 00:04:58.600 --> 00:05:01.519 are killed, how many have disappeared, And the problem there 90 00:05:01.600 --> 00:05:05.560 is that both sides benefit from whatever number they're using 91 00:05:05.600 --> 00:05:08.519 because it can satisfy different objectives based on what that 92 00:05:08.600 --> 00:05:11.240 number is. And that's similar in most conflicts and protests, 93 00:05:11.759 --> 00:05:14.439 So we probably will never really know exactly how many 94 00:05:14.759 --> 00:05:17.600 died in this protest or were arrested. Similar happened in 95 00:05:17.600 --> 00:05:19.920 the past. There's been about ten different protests that have 96 00:05:20.040 --> 00:05:22.279 names that are very significant in Iran in the last 97 00:05:22.319 --> 00:05:24.839 forty plus years, and this always is an issue of 98 00:05:25.000 --> 00:05:29.480 knowing how widespread is it, who actually is dying, who's 99 00:05:29.519 --> 00:05:33.759 doing the killing. Interestingly, in this particular protest, because they 100 00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:36.680 shut the internet off around seventy two hours ago, the 101 00:05:36.720 --> 00:05:40.360 only media that's being released is being released by IRIIB, 102 00:05:40.560 --> 00:05:43.519 which is it's the Islamic Republic if Iran Broadcasting, which 103 00:05:43.560 --> 00:05:47.800 is a state owned and state controlled, IERGC controlled news outlet. 104 00:05:48.160 --> 00:05:51.959 That's the outlet that's actually releasing images of morgues and 105 00:05:52.000 --> 00:05:56.040 warehouses and hospitals full of bodies, which is very interesting 106 00:05:56.040 --> 00:05:58.120 to consider. Why would the regime be doing that. And 107 00:05:58.160 --> 00:06:01.240 I think it's more about messaging to Iranians than it 108 00:06:01.279 --> 00:06:03.519 is about messaging to the world. And what they're probably 109 00:06:03.519 --> 00:06:05.959 trying to do is intimidate the people that are once 110 00:06:06.000 --> 00:06:08.800 their internet actually gained some access, the first images they're 111 00:06:08.839 --> 00:06:12.480 going to see are images of their dead people. And 112 00:06:12.560 --> 00:06:14.519 I think that's probably the goal of what that is 113 00:06:14.600 --> 00:06:17.519 right there. And that's again, the Internet has been a 114 00:06:17.560 --> 00:06:20.000 weapon that the regime has been using recently. They use 115 00:06:20.040 --> 00:06:22.079 it in June against their own people. They actually shut 116 00:06:22.079 --> 00:06:24.199 the internet off when Israel and the US were striking 117 00:06:24.199 --> 00:06:27.040 your on. That wasn't the outside shutting them off. That 118 00:06:27.160 --> 00:06:29.519 was the regime shutting the people off from knowing what 119 00:06:29.560 --> 00:06:33.120 was going on. Because fear is their weapon. I think 120 00:06:33.199 --> 00:06:35.000 it was rage against the machine that said like fear 121 00:06:35.079 --> 00:06:37.519 is your only God on the radio, and I mean 122 00:06:37.959 --> 00:06:41.040 it's really true. You can weaponize this feeling, which will 123 00:06:41.199 --> 00:06:43.680 maybe prevent some people from actually taking to the streets, 124 00:06:43.720 --> 00:06:46.279 because what the regime does not want is more people 125 00:06:46.319 --> 00:06:48.519 on the streets. Even if those people don't have weapons, 126 00:06:48.560 --> 00:06:51.079 they have voices, and they have the ability, they have 127 00:06:51.079 --> 00:06:54.639 spending power, and in an economy that's damaged. Like the 128 00:06:54.680 --> 00:06:59.480 current Iranian economy, spending power is everything. And that's a 129 00:06:59.519 --> 00:07:02.639 huge point about who is actually protesting right now. If 130 00:07:02.639 --> 00:07:04.879 you look at, for example, in twenty twenty one during 131 00:07:04.879 --> 00:07:08.040 the water shortage protests, or twenty nineteen which they called 132 00:07:08.160 --> 00:07:11.680 Bloody Abon, which is when fuel prices had tripled, and 133 00:07:11.720 --> 00:07:13.279 I could name a bunch of other ones, there was 134 00:07:13.360 --> 00:07:16.560 usually a single segment of society protesting. You know, for example, 135 00:07:16.639 --> 00:07:18.519 during the masa Amini protest, it was a lot about 136 00:07:18.560 --> 00:07:20.720 human rights, women's rights, So there's a certain segment of 137 00:07:20.759 --> 00:07:23.639 society it's going to stand out there and protest right now. 138 00:07:23.959 --> 00:07:27.240 The significant news item is that it's not just one group. 139 00:07:27.279 --> 00:07:29.800 It's the Bazari merchants, which were actually the people that 140 00:07:30.120 --> 00:07:32.360 fueled the base for the regime to take power in 141 00:07:32.439 --> 00:07:35.120 nineteen seventy nine in the first place, and that core 142 00:07:35.240 --> 00:07:38.560 element of their constituency is protesting against them. This is 143 00:07:38.560 --> 00:07:41.279 a huge change and has never happened since nineteen seventy nine. 144 00:07:41.480 --> 00:07:43.600 So that's a very interesting development. 145 00:07:43.879 --> 00:07:46.480 Question for you on the internet. So we don't go 146 00:07:46.560 --> 00:07:51.000 past that because I mean, they shut it down, But 147 00:07:52.199 --> 00:07:55.560 what about skylike like is their ability to override that 148 00:07:55.800 --> 00:07:58.360 does it take. And if you don't know the answer, sorry, 149 00:07:58.399 --> 00:08:00.680 if I'm putting you on the spot or on business 150 00:08:00.680 --> 00:08:03.639 for everybody, like, is that able to get through? Are 151 00:08:03.639 --> 00:08:09.319 they actually able to interfere with Skylink's ability to provide 152 00:08:09.360 --> 00:08:13.240 the Internet to the population in Iran or and there's 153 00:08:13.279 --> 00:08:17.319 something we could do cyber wise to affect that change. 154 00:08:17.439 --> 00:08:20.240 Absolutely. So what you're talking about is basically a mesh 155 00:08:20.319 --> 00:08:23.879 network configuration, which Starlink is a branded version of a 156 00:08:23.959 --> 00:08:25.920 mesh network. I actually wrote a paper on this enable 157 00:08:25.959 --> 00:08:28.920 post graduate school, where you can create a mesh network 158 00:08:28.920 --> 00:08:33.519 to provide Internet and basically circumvent a state controlled internet system, 159 00:08:33.720 --> 00:08:37.039 which the regime actually imported the Great Firewall from China. 160 00:08:37.159 --> 00:08:40.159 China came in and actually as a partnership built Iran's 161 00:08:40.279 --> 00:08:43.360 internet infrastructure, which is what the regime is throttling right now. 162 00:08:43.399 --> 00:08:45.840 So they're able to filter almost ninety eight percent of 163 00:08:45.840 --> 00:08:48.720 Internet traffic using this mechanism. But the regime has had 164 00:08:48.759 --> 00:08:51.240 a problem not just with mesh networks like you're talking about, 165 00:08:51.279 --> 00:08:54.279 but also with dishes on roofs. And if you see 166 00:08:54.320 --> 00:08:57.000 pictures of Tehran or any other major city, you just 167 00:08:57.039 --> 00:09:01.200 see roofs covered in satellite dishes because the everyday people 168 00:09:01.200 --> 00:09:02.399 they want to be able to reach out to the 169 00:09:02.399 --> 00:09:05.200 outside world, and they're using these these parabolic antennas to 170 00:09:05.200 --> 00:09:07.759 do that. There are other ways as well, because even 171 00:09:07.759 --> 00:09:10.360 with the throttled Internet you can still get around it. 172 00:09:10.399 --> 00:09:13.080 There's two applications. One is called Freegate and one is 173 00:09:13.120 --> 00:09:16.000 called Siphon, and both of these are used to get 174 00:09:16.039 --> 00:09:18.960 around the Chinese Great Firewall and Iran's what it's called 175 00:09:19.039 --> 00:09:23.279 National Internet Network, which is called the niin. Both of 176 00:09:23.320 --> 00:09:26.000 these basically act as open web proxies that have these 177 00:09:26.080 --> 00:09:29.519 huge rotating server lists. They don't always work. Let's say 178 00:09:29.519 --> 00:09:32.039 it's like a ninety eight percent failure rate, but if 179 00:09:32.039 --> 00:09:33.799 you can get a two percent success rate on that 180 00:09:34.080 --> 00:09:37.840 penetrating the filtered network, that's success, right. So if you 181 00:09:37.879 --> 00:09:41.399 couple that with a mesh network like starlink, you could 182 00:09:41.440 --> 00:09:44.679 have some success. The problem with starlink is it costs money. 183 00:09:44.720 --> 00:09:47.679 You're talking about a regime where the economy is completely 184 00:09:47.679 --> 00:09:50.080 controlled by the IRGC and the people are protesting because 185 00:09:50.080 --> 00:09:50.879 they have no money. 186 00:09:51.519 --> 00:09:53.039 How are you going to put it? Seems be a 187 00:09:53.039 --> 00:09:55.399 good investment on the US government's part. 188 00:09:56.039 --> 00:09:56.960 Just that's not. 189 00:09:56.919 --> 00:09:58.480 Exactly what I was getting at is that if we're 190 00:09:58.519 --> 00:10:01.519 talking about covert support or even overt support, maybe that 191 00:10:01.559 --> 00:10:05.600 means paying subsidizing starlink temporarily to allow people access so 192 00:10:05.639 --> 00:10:07.799 they can go out and arrange protest movements. 193 00:10:08.840 --> 00:10:11.639 Absolutely, and so the rest of the world, you know, 194 00:10:11.840 --> 00:10:14.120 And I would say that we should stick to the 195 00:10:14.159 --> 00:10:16.720 covert side, not to direct overt strikes. I kind of 196 00:10:16.720 --> 00:10:20.320 agree with State on this. But one of the things 197 00:10:20.320 --> 00:10:23.240 we can do is amplify the organic nature of what's 198 00:10:23.279 --> 00:10:25.879 going on right now, and that's giving people the Internet 199 00:10:25.919 --> 00:10:31.679 put out there what's happening. You know, hopefully that's the case. Hopefully, 200 00:10:31.679 --> 00:10:33.840 and I'm sure you know there's smart people looking at 201 00:10:33.840 --> 00:10:36.120 this right now how we can do that. But so 202 00:10:36.279 --> 00:10:39.960 you do think, Jonathan, there's a way around this attempt 203 00:10:40.039 --> 00:10:44.200 of the regime to basically put the country in the dark. 204 00:10:45.039 --> 00:10:46.879 Yeah, I mean, it's going to affect most people because 205 00:10:46.919 --> 00:10:49.039 most people aren't sophisticated enough to figure out how to 206 00:10:49.039 --> 00:10:51.080 get around it. But there are other ways too. So 207 00:10:51.120 --> 00:10:54.440 I mentioned the filtering anti filtering, those two applications freegate 208 00:10:54.480 --> 00:10:57.320 and siphon. Then there's the Mesh network like you mentioned, 209 00:10:57.360 --> 00:10:58.960 And there's another way, which is if you're in the 210 00:10:59.000 --> 00:11:02.039 border areas like an herd a stand or abadon down 211 00:11:02.080 --> 00:11:04.720 the south. If you're close enough to the Emirates, or 212 00:11:04.759 --> 00:11:07.480 you're close enough to Iraq, you can use Cork, you 213 00:11:07.480 --> 00:11:09.720 can use a tess a lot. These are the two 214 00:11:10.200 --> 00:11:13.399 other Internet service providers that are in Iraq and the 215 00:11:13.440 --> 00:11:15.600 Emirates that actually you can reach them because of a 216 00:11:15.639 --> 00:11:18.480 line of sight, so you could actually still transmit outside 217 00:11:18.519 --> 00:11:21.720 the country totally absent of the government's control of the Internet. 218 00:11:22.600 --> 00:11:28.840 Can you amplify those You can do that with repeters. Yeah, so, 219 00:11:29.039 --> 00:11:30.799 especially in a country like Iran that has a lot 220 00:11:30.799 --> 00:11:34.960 of high dramatic terrain, perfect situation for reputers across the 221 00:11:34.960 --> 00:11:37.000 top of the ridge lines to just pass that signal 222 00:11:37.039 --> 00:11:39.240 from a major city to the border area. 223 00:11:40.000 --> 00:11:43.120 Are there doing that? I'm hoping right Cia M I 224 00:11:43.200 --> 00:11:45.720 six Whoever, hopefully. 225 00:11:45.720 --> 00:11:48.120 It's really tough because those things are so obvious that 226 00:11:48.159 --> 00:11:50.559 if the regime, I mean, all you need is a 227 00:11:50.759 --> 00:11:52.799 you know, a small handheld device to figure out where 228 00:11:52.799 --> 00:11:54.600 that signal is coming from and direction, find on it 229 00:11:54.639 --> 00:11:56.679 and destroy it, which is what they were doing with 230 00:11:56.759 --> 00:11:59.519 the antennas on roofs as well. There's just so many 231 00:11:59.559 --> 00:12:02.519 of them. If you could flood the environment with these devices, 232 00:12:03.000 --> 00:12:05.080 the regime just wouldn't have the resources to stop it. 233 00:12:05.120 --> 00:12:08.200 Could you do it wrong? Version of a repeater. 234 00:12:09.279 --> 00:12:11.120 You could, but that would require a lot of power. 235 00:12:13.960 --> 00:12:15.799 I know we're geeking out here, or at least I am, 236 00:12:15.840 --> 00:12:18.799 on the tactics of this, but I'm not a cyber 237 00:12:19.279 --> 00:12:21.639 expert by any stretch. But it seems like that would 238 00:12:21.639 --> 00:12:24.600 be one of the best things that the international community, 239 00:12:24.600 --> 00:12:26.600 including in the United States of course, could do to 240 00:12:26.639 --> 00:12:32.120 amplify what is clearly an organic, not you know, fabricated 241 00:12:33.080 --> 00:12:40.279 uprising against the regime, right, So, I mean, and you're 242 00:12:40.320 --> 00:12:43.919 a very well published author, which is awesome. Can you explain? 243 00:12:44.200 --> 00:12:46.519 And sorry, I know you probably have some questions, but 244 00:12:46.519 --> 00:12:48.480 I just wanted to know this because I'm going to 245 00:12:48.559 --> 00:12:52.039 be talking happing about this today, Like what is the 246 00:12:52.080 --> 00:12:54.240 mechanism other than what we all know why our GC 247 00:12:54.440 --> 00:13:00.159 besiege et cetera. Could force like the mechanism internal that 248 00:13:00.360 --> 00:13:03.519 keeps the regime in place, both by you know, the 249 00:13:03.639 --> 00:13:08.639 kind of intelligence and the action arm of that element. 250 00:13:09.440 --> 00:13:14.799 And are they any good because we've obviously saw direct 251 00:13:14.799 --> 00:13:20.360 strikes by Israel on individuals that they had you know 252 00:13:20.639 --> 00:13:25.639 they were hosting and clearly they've been infiltrated. What's your 253 00:13:25.679 --> 00:13:28.600 thought on that and can you kind of give the 254 00:13:28.639 --> 00:13:32.759 listeners an idea just how they keep themselves in power 255 00:13:32.879 --> 00:13:34.879 with such a opposition. 256 00:13:35.840 --> 00:13:37.639 Yeah, So this grip on power that we see today 257 00:13:37.720 --> 00:13:40.000 is kind of a long term development that started in 258 00:13:40.080 --> 00:13:42.559 nineteen eighty nine when the current Iatola took over from 259 00:13:42.600 --> 00:13:46.200 the original Ayatola. And what happened was he consolidated power 260 00:13:46.240 --> 00:13:50.759 economically through these organizations called bonyads, which are essentially kind 261 00:13:50.759 --> 00:13:55.399 of like quasi religious charity organizations on paper, but what 262 00:13:55.440 --> 00:13:57.799 they do is actually funnel all the money the regime 263 00:13:57.840 --> 00:14:02.279 controls into these specialized and tes. That's at one layer, 264 00:14:02.320 --> 00:14:06.039 and then below that are things like banks, state pension funds, 265 00:14:06.279 --> 00:14:08.960 you know, overseas investment funds. So you think about like 266 00:14:08.960 --> 00:14:10.799 in the United States we have private equity and hedge 267 00:14:10.799 --> 00:14:13.080 funds and things like that. The regime has something very 268 00:14:13.080 --> 00:14:15.519 similar to that that are owned in the person of 269 00:14:15.559 --> 00:14:19.200 the Ayatola, and one of them is called Setad se Tad, 270 00:14:19.320 --> 00:14:21.399 which is interesting to look into if you have time. 271 00:14:22.200 --> 00:14:24.720 There was a time article, i think in the nineties 272 00:14:24.759 --> 00:14:28.679 about Ayatola Kamani about how he's potentially one of the 273 00:14:28.759 --> 00:14:32.240 richest human beings on earth, more than j Bezos because 274 00:14:32.240 --> 00:14:35.799 of his control over these bonyards. And it's we're talking 275 00:14:36.000 --> 00:14:39.120 hundreds of billions of dollars. And there was actually a 276 00:14:39.159 --> 00:14:43.600 statement by the Minister of Finance in the regimes inner 277 00:14:43.679 --> 00:14:46.919 circle a few years ago where he admitted that twenty 278 00:14:47.000 --> 00:14:49.600 percent of the black market in Iran is controlled by 279 00:14:49.639 --> 00:14:52.639 the IERGC. So if the government is saying twenty percent 280 00:14:52.720 --> 00:14:54.440 is controlled by the IRGC, you can only imagine what 281 00:14:54.440 --> 00:14:57.159 the real number is, right, And if they're controlling the 282 00:14:57.200 --> 00:15:00.000 black market and they're also controlling the regular commercial market, 283 00:15:00.039 --> 00:15:05.159 it it's not about necessarily our conventional ideas about securitization of 284 00:15:05.159 --> 00:15:08.080 a state, which is what's causing repression. Instead it's economic 285 00:15:08.120 --> 00:15:11.159 control of the state. So the reason fuel prices are high, 286 00:15:11.240 --> 00:15:13.720 the reason the tomn is devalued, the real is devalued, 287 00:15:13.919 --> 00:15:16.240 the reason there's little water access, this is because the 288 00:15:16.279 --> 00:15:20.440 regime is controlling the economy rather than allowing actual government 289 00:15:20.519 --> 00:15:23.399 functions to move normally as they should. I could go 290 00:15:23.440 --> 00:15:25.279 into it very deeply, but I'll leave it there. 291 00:15:25.360 --> 00:15:25.639 John. 292 00:15:25.679 --> 00:15:28.080 We had like there was like a report maybe a 293 00:15:28.120 --> 00:15:30.519 month or a few months ago, maybe two three months 294 00:15:30.559 --> 00:15:34.360 ago about Iran and their the drought, the problem with 295 00:15:34.440 --> 00:15:38.919 their water has that is it really like just comes 296 00:15:38.960 --> 00:15:41.639 down to the regime like holding the you know, the 297 00:15:41.720 --> 00:15:44.519 Spagott open or not in terms of like getting because 298 00:15:44.519 --> 00:15:46.799 they were talk about moving to the capital and stuff 299 00:15:46.840 --> 00:15:50.519 like that. I can't say, like just insane things that 300 00:15:50.559 --> 00:15:52.679 you can't even like, you know, the scale of it 301 00:15:52.720 --> 00:15:54.399 is like unbelievable to even think about. 302 00:15:55.039 --> 00:15:56.840 Yes, this is not a new issue. I mean twenty 303 00:15:56.879 --> 00:15:59.679 twenty one there is a huge protest movement. It was 304 00:16:00.159 --> 00:16:03.200 water shortage and labor issues and some other stuff. The 305 00:16:03.240 --> 00:16:07.559 problem is this infrastructure that is in the water system 306 00:16:07.799 --> 00:16:12.960 is poorly maintained. It's basically Shaw era infrastructure that's not 307 00:16:13.039 --> 00:16:16.440 ever been updated. So you've got like rotting metal, you've 308 00:16:16.440 --> 00:16:19.919 got pipes clogged up, you've got poorly managed dams. Because 309 00:16:19.919 --> 00:16:21.679 there's a lot of corruption in the government obviously, right, 310 00:16:21.720 --> 00:16:23.399 so like the people that are supposed to be like 311 00:16:23.480 --> 00:16:26.320 technocrats that you'd want running these things are not running them. Instead, 312 00:16:26.320 --> 00:16:30.200 it's higher GC affiliated individuals who are either brainwashed or 313 00:16:30.240 --> 00:16:33.480 sympathetic to the regime as their number one qualification to 314 00:16:33.519 --> 00:16:37.639 be running a dam, right, So that's that's a big problem. Also, 315 00:16:38.080 --> 00:16:40.080 I think it's I camember how many decades. This is 316 00:16:40.080 --> 00:16:43.000 the worst drought Iran has had in decades, right, So 317 00:16:43.000 --> 00:16:46.960 they're already at a low water table. They're having issues 318 00:16:46.960 --> 00:16:49.519 with how the crops are being like how the efficiency 319 00:16:49.559 --> 00:16:51.799 of the actual movement of water to grow crops is happening. 320 00:16:52.279 --> 00:16:54.080 You have to remember it's a very mountainous country. Like 321 00:16:54.080 --> 00:16:57.000 where we mentioned there's there's very little kind of lowland 322 00:16:57.000 --> 00:17:01.799 flat land with water access, so it requires extra infrastructure 323 00:17:01.799 --> 00:17:05.160 to actually move water from mountain to mountain. There's one 324 00:17:05.279 --> 00:17:07.680 navigable river in the entire country at the Karoon River 325 00:17:07.720 --> 00:17:09.559 where actual ships can move on the rest of it 326 00:17:09.599 --> 00:17:12.559 are not navigable by large ships, So there's already like 327 00:17:12.680 --> 00:17:17.359 a environmentally low water level there. Combine that with corruption 328 00:17:18.119 --> 00:17:21.519 and with a drought, now you've got a recipe for 329 00:17:21.839 --> 00:17:24.440 water disaster, which is like one small component of the 330 00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:25.680 current protests. 331 00:17:25.759 --> 00:17:28.920 So the next thing, of course, is what if we 332 00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:32.480 have catastrophic success. I'm sorry, Jay, just throw that out there. 333 00:17:32.519 --> 00:17:36.359 Maybe you have like the questions I'm getting is what 334 00:17:36.480 --> 00:17:40.119 comes next? Right, Like what if you know there's reports 335 00:17:40.119 --> 00:17:43.880 that the Iatola is talking about fleeing to Moscow, et cetera. Like, 336 00:17:43.920 --> 00:17:48.160 what if the regime is decapitated, is it just simply 337 00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:55.319 going to leave the IRGC is presumptive power that will 338 00:17:55.359 --> 00:17:58.920 fill the vacuum. Is there any chance that it could 339 00:17:58.960 --> 00:18:03.880 be a formation of a government more friendly to the 340 00:18:03.960 --> 00:18:06.480 United States, the West and being part of the you know, 341 00:18:06.559 --> 00:18:09.960 community and nations. Is there any leader that actually has 342 00:18:10.039 --> 00:18:13.759 the clout to stand up and do that, or are 343 00:18:13.799 --> 00:18:16.680 we basically going to move from a theocracy into a 344 00:18:16.720 --> 00:18:18.000 military dictatorship. 345 00:18:18.640 --> 00:18:21.000 Yeah, I think there's three possible outcomes. But I'll first 346 00:18:21.119 --> 00:18:24.240 put a pin on the thing about the decapitation. When 347 00:18:24.279 --> 00:18:27.880 we say decapitation, we're typically thinking about a person or 348 00:18:27.880 --> 00:18:31.079 a small group. So in this case, most people are thinking, well, 349 00:18:31.160 --> 00:18:34.200 if we kill Ayatola Jameni or he runs away to Moscow, 350 00:18:34.920 --> 00:18:37.480 if the regime is decapitated. But there's a problem. It's 351 00:18:37.559 --> 00:18:40.359 like the whole problem framing concept in military planning. If 352 00:18:40.359 --> 00:18:42.440 we don't frame the correct the problem correctly, we're gonna 353 00:18:42.440 --> 00:18:44.279 be pursuing the wrong problem in the wrong solution the 354 00:18:44.400 --> 00:18:46.759 entire time. The thing is with the regime. When we 355 00:18:46.839 --> 00:18:50.799 say who's in charge, we're usually wrong. You know, when 356 00:18:50.839 --> 00:18:53.680 we killed Salami, for example, the commander of the military, 357 00:18:53.880 --> 00:18:56.279 you know, we thought that would decapitate the IURGC. It 358 00:18:56.319 --> 00:18:58.920 didn't because he's not in charge. The people who are 359 00:18:58.960 --> 00:19:01.279 actually in charge are not big names. They're not on 360 00:19:01.319 --> 00:19:03.319 the on the news all the time. It's a small 361 00:19:03.400 --> 00:19:06.000 group of they call them sapahis or guardians that are 362 00:19:06.000 --> 00:19:08.799 in the background, that are controlling a lot of the stuff. 363 00:19:08.839 --> 00:19:11.839 Not for ideological reasons as their number one reason. It's 364 00:19:11.839 --> 00:19:16.079 more about economic control and wealth generation for their for 365 00:19:16.119 --> 00:19:19.359 their inner circle. So if the Iotola left, I feel 366 00:19:19.440 --> 00:19:21.839 very little would change. And I'll go back to the 367 00:19:22.119 --> 00:19:25.640 three outcomes. One is that he leaves and or dies, 368 00:19:26.240 --> 00:19:29.559 The second one is that the monarch returns, and the 369 00:19:29.559 --> 00:19:32.039 third one is that the IERGC takes over. These are 370 00:19:32.119 --> 00:19:37.319 very three, you know, common potential outcomes. The most likely 371 00:19:37.359 --> 00:19:39.319 thing that will probably happen, and I'm not a future 372 00:19:39.480 --> 00:19:41.799 you know predictor of the crystal ball. Probably what would 373 00:19:41.799 --> 00:19:44.599 happen is the IRGC would take over. That third option 374 00:19:44.720 --> 00:19:47.200 is most likely. The reason for that is because the 375 00:19:47.200 --> 00:19:50.440 monarchy is not universally liked, even by people who want 376 00:19:50.480 --> 00:19:53.319 freedom in the country. Because a monarchy doesn't really equal freedom, 377 00:19:53.319 --> 00:19:56.319 It just equals another way of consolidating power, which is 378 00:19:56.319 --> 00:19:58.839 what the revolution was about in the first place. A 379 00:19:58.880 --> 00:20:03.519 lot of the outside Iran support for inside Iran protests 380 00:20:04.160 --> 00:20:07.599 talk about the monarchy, and that does not correlate to 381 00:20:07.599 --> 00:20:09.319 what people want inside the country. And it's the people 382 00:20:09.359 --> 00:20:11.039 inside the country that ultimately have to live every day 383 00:20:11.039 --> 00:20:15.160 with what the next government is. Right, So that's always 384 00:20:15.160 --> 00:20:17.160 a question of what do the people outside want versus 385 00:20:17.240 --> 00:20:19.599 what the people inside want, And we have to rectify 386 00:20:19.640 --> 00:20:22.759 those two desires in kind of trying to predict what 387 00:20:22.839 --> 00:20:25.559 might happen next and what the consequences are. And if 388 00:20:25.920 --> 00:20:29.720 the US or Israel is perceived widely by people in 389 00:20:29.759 --> 00:20:31.839 Iran that they were behind a regime change and the 390 00:20:31.839 --> 00:20:34.000 monarch came back, I feel like we'd probably run into 391 00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:36.640 a very similar problem that we had with the original 392 00:20:36.680 --> 00:20:40.759 Shah before he left, where there was this widespread kind 393 00:20:40.759 --> 00:20:43.519 of consternation about who's actually running things in the country, 394 00:20:43.759 --> 00:20:46.240 even if the monarch was purely running it himself without 395 00:20:46.240 --> 00:20:50.160 foreign influence. If people doubted enough, you're going to lose 396 00:20:50.160 --> 00:20:52.440 that kind of support for that leadership. 397 00:20:53.960 --> 00:20:55.759 Hey, guys, I want to tell all of you today 398 00:20:55.839 --> 00:20:59.039 about a new newsletter that we're launching that encompasses both 399 00:20:59.119 --> 00:21:02.960 the Teamhouse Pie cast, the eyes On podcast, and the 400 00:21:03.039 --> 00:21:06.440 high Side news outlet, which I run with Sean Naylor. 401 00:21:06.920 --> 00:21:07.039