Speaker 1: It is oh Wager talks Last Goal. I am back
on a Sunday here from Aruba. It is Rep. Queenery Lepstein.
Three great guests today per usual what We're gonna be
joined by Yanni, the Greek from Las Vegas. He's gonna
tell us all of the sharp sides for today. We've
got some questions too that Kelly told me about from yesterday.
We'll make sure to answer the questions that you guys
have for Yannie about knowing how and when to know
this theme is on a certain side. Also about teasers.
We've got a few questions that Yanni will answer about
how the sharp's bet. John Murray gonna join the show
at eleven twenty Eastern time. We'll get the look behind
the counter. Then Jesse Schule going to give us his
best bets of the day. Remember, you guys can go
over to oddslogic dot com slash prop Queen. You can
take a look at all the ways that the lines move.
It's created by Don Best and the Sports Option guys.
It's the ultimate real time odds screen, so make sure
to go and check it out. It's oddslogic dot com
slash Queen joining the show now we're going to my
guy yacht in the Greek. I haven't seen you in
a week. Oh that kind of rhymes Philly's hat rocking
it today. That's good luck.
Speaker 2: How are you never better? Never better?
Speaker 3: I'm coming off of losing college football. I tell you
when I win, I tell you when I lose. We've
had so far in college football twelve weeks, I've turned
the profit in ten of those, still up over one
hundred and ten units and number one in profit. But
I did go three and oh yesterday in college basketball,
swept all four percent, turned the profit in MMA as well,
and absolutely loved this NFL board where I fired a
five percent. Haven't done that in a little bit and
a couple four percents in there.
Speaker 2: And we're far from domb.
Speaker 3: The steam room's coming up in an hour, so we're
gonna have a lot of action, a lot of action.
Speaker 2: Where do we start speaking? Tea? Oh yesterday? Real quick?
Speaker 3: Sorry, they got so much value on last call yesterday.
If you guys didn't make money, I need to just
skip this segment altogether. I brought so much gold for
them in every sport, aerial and even on bed on it.
Another sweep in college football all for free now twenty
six and seven on bed on it college football. You
can't bet, you can't you can't beat it like you no,
you smash that light button for us please.
Speaker 1: Kelly and I have also been out here in Aruba.
We have gone back and forth to like a million
different kios because we keep going. They only have kios here, Yanni.
They don't have like a true sports book. We keep
looking for one.
Speaker 3: It's big jam and kios like your wise guys tay
out here taking care of and then.
Speaker 1: They were charging kel like an extra four dollars to tease,
and you can only tease three. You can't tease two
different NFL teams, so you have to do a three
team teaser. There's a lot of rules out here on
the kios. So yeah, I think Kelly got so.
Speaker 2: They make it hard for you to win, that's all.
Speaker 3: You know, those resort destinations, they always that's how they
do it.
Speaker 1: I know. Well, at least we were doing well in blackjack,
so you'd be of us for seeing how Bell did
the first few nights in blackjack. But we got sports
betting and speaking of your steam room, we do have
a few questions that Kelly sent me. So someone asked
the question about uh, he's a question for Yanni from
Big Team Money. Eight question for Yanni about the sharp steam.
I'm a contrarion against the public better and I like
to fire on lo Betts higher dollars as one of
my angles. How do I know the steam is real? Like,
for example, a reverse line move with Jets Browns, as
Brown's flipping from dog to favorite, what's the indicator that
Sharps didn't dumb me down that line to take the
Jets at a plus price thanks in advance.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Unfortunately, unless you're working with a group and you're getting
them first hand, you're guessing. You're always guessing. And the
best you can do is with experience of watching line movements,
watching opening lines, how they move, how they close, and results,
you'll start to get a feel for what they're doing.
Speaker 2: Like there's really no formula, like do this.
Speaker 3: Every time this happens, do this every time that happens,
because the market's constantly evolving, and you got to remember
the betting Ston gets understanding is better than anyone and
they're constantly evolving, So things they were doing six months
ago they may not be doing today. To beat college
basketball to beat NBA, like based on what the market
consists of, like early in the season. Right now in
college basketball, it's wise guys versus the books. There's not
many recreational betters betting Wisconsin Milwaukee totals this early.
Speaker 2: In college basketball, but the wise guys are.
Speaker 3: So if you see a total like that get hit
on a Tuesday night, you could be pretty sure that
it's legit. Now, the only thing I determined on screen.
Off screen, you know there's a lot of nuances to it.
But if it's you know, a North Carolina versus Duke,
then that's a different story. That's going to attract a
lot of public money. They're going to affect line moves
as well, because two things move money other than injury suspensions,
all that blah blah blah. Respect if you're if you're,
if you're a respected better meaning they know you get
CLV and your mathematical certainty to profit long term, or
you bet a lot of money and the public bets
a lot of money. That's why they move a lot
of these lines. So it's hard to determine with you know,
a certainty if you're not getting them first hand. But
like I said that comes with experience tracking and uh yeah,
just following markets.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about that game that he referred to, that
Brown Jets game. It did flip from Jeed's minus one
and a half, now we're getting Jets plus two and
a half. How do you play a line flip like that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and here's what you got to remember. It's right now.
Speaker 3: It's good two way action in this game. So that's
a perfect example if you could determine this is sharp
money because it's not like Cleveland's getting a bunch of
public money. Cleveland's not a public darling, so they're not
going to get a ten to one ticket ratio or
money bet on Cleveland. So you could kind of determine
that Cleveland sharp. All right, Then you got determined what
did they bet it at? Well, they bet it at
worse plus one. It was plus two. A couple of people
probably got down at the look ahead, but most got
down at plus one because the look ahead was two
by the fourth of November, so that was, you know,
five days ago, it was already down to one and
pick them. So any sharp betters more or less have
the Cleveland Browns at a pick them.
Speaker 2: Maybe some have plus one.
Speaker 3: Some have minus one, but right now, if you like Cleveland,
there's no reason not to bet them. You're not really
taking that much the worst of it unless it gets
to three and like then you're chasing the bad number.
Speaker 2: Now you want to bet.
Speaker 3: If you like the sharp side, you want to bet
Cleveland right now and hope it closes three, then you've
got some closing line value as well. Otherwise, if you
bet Cleveland now at minus two, you're kind of getting
to the party late. But it's not one of those
key numbers that would pull me off of a bet
if I like that side already. Now another way to
bet this game that I'm going to do in the
steam room, obviously, if this line's still valuable, is we're
going to tease the jets up. It's a total that's
below forty. Each half point's worth a lot more, and
we could get it through the numbers of three, six,
and seven, which is all I care about. I don't
care what the team is. I don't care that the
wise guys are opposite me.
Speaker 2: I care that I.
Speaker 3: Could tease through those key numbers, which guarantees me I'm
placing a plus ev bet as long as I'm not
going above minus one twenty five. And again, my job
is to find those plus ev spots. We do it
enough when the dust settles will be profitable. It's that
simple in this game. That's how I'm looking at it.
I like Cleveland. If I have to bet it, I'd
still bet Cleveland right now. My opinion that is on Cleveland,
but power rating wise, that's where I had it. I
had Cleveland about a one and a half two point favorite,
so not getting any real line value there. And then
they have a quarterback in Cleveland that's bottom of the
pack in passing success right, So it's not a team
I want to be laying points with on the road. Okay,
I like Cleveland, I lean Cleveland. My opinions Cleveland. Cleveland's
the sharp side. But I have no confidence and back
in a team like Cleveland on the road land point.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to do it again.
Speaker 1: Exactly like what you said. It's exactly like what you
said last week with the Jets. Last week with the Jets,
you said this number, it's not worth it for the
game last week, where like the Jets have value because
they are not as bad as the next in that matchup.
So same things go for this terrible matchup between the
Browns and the Jets. I also find, speaking of just
like public sides the game this week between the Bucks
and the Patriots. Early this week, I was watching you
guys on bet on It and it felt like, okay,
Bucks feels like the right side coming off of bye,
going up against a pat steam that's been hot but
has really played nobody aside for the Bills. But outside
of that, it's been pretty easy for New England and
first big test Bucks off of bye. However, one of
the most bet on sides in the Super Contest this
week is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yanni, how do we
approach this pros versus? Joe's kind of gay?
Speaker 3: It's because this, for whatever reason, there's no trust in
that New England team, because.
Speaker 2: Of their strength of schedule.
Speaker 3: This is why the wise guys have kind of avoided them,
even why they were hot. They had the thirty second
toughest schedule, so they've had the easiest schedule the NFL
in all of NFL.
Speaker 1: Now, it's letts scary that everybody likes the Bucks today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but here's when you're looking at and here's the
flip side Tampa Bay, They've had the ninth toughest schedule
and their top ten in offense, top ten in defense.
This line is telling me, like, again, I don't play
contrarian just to be contrarian, but I trust that there's
people in the betting market that know a.
Speaker 2: Lot more than I do, and I trust.
Speaker 3: In that efficient market hypothesis that eventually the market gets
it right.
Speaker 2: And in this spot, when I'm not.
Speaker 3: Seeing three across the board, when I'm seeing the sharpest
shop places keeping it two and a half juice and
the squares shops at three, that tells me I like,
in New England side, I'm leading the New England side
teaser material up to eight and a half. I like that.
Something scares me on this Tampa Bay side. Again, New
England's won to roll that two area. You gotta remember
they've won now six straight games and they're catching points.
So it's hard to be given a team like that points,
especially when they've outperformed the betting market, Like, not only
have they won six straight, they've covered five of six,
So like, what.
Speaker 2: Can you really give New England.
Speaker 3: That's the problem that the books have in this spot,
Like if they go above that key number. They know
they're gonna get a lot of sharp money on New England.
It looks to me like they don't want that. It's
almost like they're booking it to Tampa Bay. And whenever
I see a book's taken having an opinion, I play
attention because it looks to me like they're booking to
Tampa Bay. But then you look at Westgate they have three.
I'd like to hear what what what what they have
to say about that John when he comes in and
ask them if they if they're booking that to any
particular sign because the market's two and a half and
they're at three, so they do they want that New
England money or they just so one sided on Tampa
They're like, we don't care. Help minimize our risk a
little bit. I like New England reading the market, even
though my handicap tells me like it should be a
higher number.
Speaker 1: I know that's why it's very scary. What do you
guys have? What are you whether it's again just.
Speaker 2: Lasting on that game. I don't think that the passing
success rate. Uh Drake may still top five.
Speaker 3: He's number three now and as good as as Tampa's
played overall, Baker Mayfield's actually twenty seventh in passing success rate.
That has a huge correlation the winning. That had me
immediately when I saw that, wanting to find reasons to
bet in New England.
Speaker 2: So I'll at least have them teased. What was the
next game?
Speaker 1: Rip us off some different teams sides besides totally.
Speaker 2: Let me give you some.
Speaker 3: I'll give you some a sharp action, and then I'll
give you the public side, the heaviest public side. Here's
some sharp money for you. Earlier it was Indianapolis, So
if you like Indianapolis, you could get.
Speaker 2: A better number at them. Right now live.
Speaker 3: They were minus three and a half in the second half,
which means minus two and a half.
Speaker 2: For the game. It's a pretty good bet.
Speaker 3: We laid five and a half all the way up
to six and a half with the guys I work
with on Indie.
Speaker 1: Nasal sevens now Yeah.
Speaker 3: Two fifty three Cleveland. We talked about Cleveland. Why they
flipped the favorite. These guys got down at plus one
and pick them not that big of a number. Two
sixty eight Seattle, Seattle minus six two seventy one, La
Rams minus three and a half two sixty six Chicago
minus three and a half. Where else, oh, Tampa, New
England under forty eight and a half, Houston, Jacksonville under
thirty eight, and then Arizona, Seattle under forty five and
a half. So there's some sharp sides. The most one
sided public Detroit, Detroit, Detroit, and if you watch bet
on it, you're already on Washington with me. We got
plus ten. It's eight right now. That's why Washington's not
sven and a half. Dude, Washington was it warranted a
five percent bet. And again, the only reason I did
it is this. I knew this was going to happen.
I thought the teaser protection would keep it at around
eight and a half nine. But once I saw that
more Sharps agreed with me, said that number is going
to be gone. You can't fire five percent, just make
it a four percent. I may sprinkle a one percent
on a money line because I got a feeling.
Speaker 2: And again this is coming from someone that needs the
Detroit futures. But Detroit so unsigned.
Speaker 3: Seattle Public's on Seattle Wise, guys on Seattle public on
Seattle Wise, guys on Seattle.
Speaker 2: Thank god, it's up to seven. That's a good sign.
Speaker 3: For Seattle Beckers. That's a good sign. They're on Baltimore.
Loving this Baltimore team up to four and a half
My sharpest book right now that I used to shade lines,
he's got four and a half juice.
Speaker 1: So yeah, Kelly's on Minnesota. She's not gonna be happy.
Speaker 3: Scary scary Buffalo Buffalo another public sign. But that got
some sharp money also from what I had heard, But
the line doesn't reflect it.
Speaker 2: But I saw that someone.
Speaker 3: Was saying that his book got sharp's hit him with
Buffalo and Indianapolis.
Speaker 2: But again, there's just so much information out there.
Speaker 1: What about props?
Speaker 2: Only had props? I was looking for player props. Let
me see if anything just came in.
Speaker 3: No, I got no player props, no player props yet.
Literally that let's put that back.
Speaker 1: On the screen, the teaser question and then we'll follow
it up. So, Yanni, what do you think of Jaguars
and a teaser with that low total?
Speaker 3: Nah, it's got Houston has to go to one and
a half. Houston has to go to one and a half.
Speaker 1: If what other team you suggest then today?
Speaker 3: Yeah, and not not at your one book and you
gotta look at you gotta see one and a half
at Pinnacle and bet online. So you gotta look off
shores one and a half and then on here in Vegas.
You want to see at least Circa or Westgate also
have that. If they have one and a half on
Houston Jacksonville makes a great teaser bet. Otherwise you're better
off just betting them at a pick them or at
plus one. I'm telling you long term, it's not gonna
help you. Those those extra six points are not advantageous
unless you're able to go through three, four and six.
That's the math. That's not Vur's opinion. That's the math.
And if you're not laying more than one twenty five
and you do that, you know you're placing a winning
bet like you had the edge. Now you're the casino.
But you have to find those exact situations to be
the house.
Speaker 1: This question is interesting. Thirteen point fourteen teaser. Literally won't lose,
he says Texans.
Speaker 2: No no, no, no no no no no no no no.
Once I hear, please listen.
Speaker 1: Literally won't lose.
Speaker 2: Come on, listen, let me explain. Let me tell you something.
Speaker 3: Eight out of ten times in the NFL pick the winner,
you'll cast your ticket.
Speaker 2: You're making harder than it needs to be.
Speaker 3: That's exactly what the books want you to do. They
want you to take ten point.
Speaker 1: He's looking for the big home run and it's not.
Speaker 2: I'm telling you though, that's bridge jumping.
Speaker 3: That's those guys that bet those money line parlays that
cannot lose this seventeen point favorite cannot lose, cannot lose,
but your ROI is so low. When it does lose,
you wipe out all your profit and you're not down.
I promise you. Those are strictly for the house to
increase their hold.
Speaker 2: That's what those kind of bets allow the book to do.
Speaker 3: Instead of getting four and a half percent hold, they're
up to six seven eight percent average because of bets
just like that. I'm telling you now, don't play them.
If you want to gamble, go play the lottery. At
least make a score megabucks like go for the big
score if you're gambling, but don't gamble on on on
teasers and that kind of stuff.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And to answer the group question about Deandres with
I'm still seeing Swift is questionable with a groin. So
we'll see how what happens with the inactives and act.
Speaker 2: And we're gonna have it tiller day to day. We're
gonna have win in that.
Speaker 1: Yet, I'm gonna wait for those actives and inactive's Saints.
Richard Lockhart said, are they the right side the Saints?
Speaker 2: Let me tell you real fast.
Speaker 3: Yeah it subscribers, Yeah, I gave them out. I gave
them that as my gold play. My subscribers are on
it at plus six four percent. Yeah, we're on the Saints.
We're on the Saints.
Speaker 1: If you got kind of just had the big upset
last week and then they had to face the Falcons
next week.
Speaker 2: And this is the perfect situation. They know that team
very well. This is what you want.
Speaker 3: This is exactly what you want for the Saints having
to go on the road. I understand it's not the
ideal situation rookie quarterback, but this is a team that
they know, and the rookie quarterbacks actually adding value to
the New Orleans sign. I don't want to repeat what
I said on bed on It, but watch that little
segment I did on my dog Pick of the week,
why It's New England, And I think I made a
good argument for them for New Orleans.
Speaker 1: We're letting go. I know that a lot of people
in the chat were looking for some sharp sides on
college hoops today.
Speaker 2: What you got, let me give you some college basketball.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we weren't fired yesterday, and I are it down
just that those three easy winners. I haven't released anything yet,
but it's it's coming. Rest is short, all right. Indiana, Indiana.
I liked Indiana myself too. That was also circled before
from Night over Market six eighty one Indiana minus the
two and a half game going off in an hour Campbell, Campbell,
good all the way up to minus eight and a half.
Speaker 2: That's the first game on the board. Where else were we?
Speaker 3: Oh, Denver six ninety five, Denver from plus nine plus
eight and a half plus eight, So we're good there
on Denver, Portland seven oh four, Portland minus one one
and a half. And then where was that last one?
Oh yeah, Washington, last game on the board over Baylor
seven to fifteen, Washington plus seven, six and a half
and six. So you got nothing but gold Earyl's bringing
it for you. So you guys need to give her
the support. She brings the best out of us. That's
what she gets is able to do.
Speaker 1: Thanks Yanni, I'm impresser.
Speaker 3: You know, you got pretty girl on the other side
of the screen. You try to impress her, so you
bring your best stuff.
Speaker 2: Some younger guys, younger men, what to do out there?
Speaker 1: You know, that's brady and nice to try to be impressed, yann.
Speaker 2: Or have them hit a parlay. You got their heart.
Speaker 1: That's fair. Everyone just loves money. That's what it's all about.
What are you promoting today, Yannie?
Speaker 3: All right, it's as simple as this. I put it
all together. I usually this is usually separated as a
way to make more money.
Speaker 2: We don't need that. The package is there with the.
Speaker 3: Five percent in it, all of Sunday's action, four percenters
in the Sunday Night Game twelve and two now on
Monday Night Football and Sunday Night Football last fourteen, twelve
and two, and I'm adding that four percent in there
for free. So jump on board to get that NFL
package with a five percent or a better off, jumping
for long term because what's coming up over the next
six weeks to close out the year. It's a good,
good time to be on board. College basketball, bowl games,
coming conference tournaments, all that good stuff.
Speaker 2: We're good, We're.
Speaker 1: Good Yanni, the Greek you are the side.
Speaker 2: Thank you next week, good luck Ariel.
Speaker 1: Thanks Yanni. And for the people writing in the chat
that I look tired or that I just want to leave,
you know why, because I'm in a Ruba. I've been
on vacation now for about ten days. I'm here for
one more week with Kelly and Vegas. We've been playing
a lot of blackjackets. You know. We actually went to
bed at like ten thirty last night here of Ruba time,
so it's been great. The beach is right behind me.
I just can't show you that because the light will
bother the video. But yes, I do want to get
the hell out of here because I've got to go
sit by the beach bar where we're gonna watch football today.
Great sports bar here in Aruba, Carlitos, Carly and I,
Carly and I, Kelly and I are going to Carlito's
and we're going to be watching the games. So it's
gonna be a blast. So yes, my butt would like
to get out there, but we're gonna sit here with
my great friend John Murray joining the show, who's definitely
jealous that he's not here on a Caribbean Island with
Kelly and I watching football games on the beach, right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I here's what I'd like to know. How
do I get a job at wager Talk? I want
to be on vacation all year too, like Kelly.
Speaker 1: Chris Terson asked that question all the time. I know
he's watching the show right now. Chris Thurson once to
know the same thing. How can you get a job
at wager Talking be in Aruba?
Speaker 4: I want to be on vacation year round like your
friend Kelly. Where is Kelly right now?
Speaker 1: She's sitting at the pool.
Speaker 4: The right answer was supposed to be she's producing this show.
She's sitting at.
Speaker 1: The pool producing this show. Kelly's off today.
Speaker 4: Kelly's off today, Okay?
Speaker 1: What might be watching from the pool? Though? She might
be spying on us, So I'm a little nervous. She
said she wouldn't bring her laptop downstairs to watch games
on it, but I had to remind her that you
don't get access to that here in the international What.
Speaker 4: What game do you guys get? Is there like a
national game?
Speaker 1: Has all the games?
Speaker 2: What on the beach?
Speaker 1: Beach bar? Sports bar on the beach with all the games?
It's incredible.
Speaker 4: That's pretty cool. Actually, yeah, that was good.
Speaker 1: I know, but usually they get the New York feed
down here. Okay, so you got to be got.
Speaker 4: So you could go down to a Ruba and watch
That's Browns.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Bear's Giants.
Speaker 4: That should be a good game.
Speaker 1: Great, great games. We're gonna watch all of them. Tho.
I've got to watch my ravens play the vis games.
John Murray, you know that the group chat. All they
want is the needs of day, and I have to
get those to them asap. Chrisson, the fact he's watching,
I don't even think he really needs them, but I'm
gonna write them out for Buck Eye, Joe, Kelly Brett
and Chris.
Speaker 4: Why doesn't Chris just text me like what is it like?
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think he gets more pleasure out
of watching us provide them for him.
Speaker 4: All right, Well, the biggest need of the day, I
can tell you guys, is gonna be the Commanders.
Speaker 5: The command.
Speaker 4: I mean, for sure, everybody's on Detroit. We've taken already,
big action on Detroit, big parlays going to Detroit from
the early games. Washington, I think is gonna be Washington's
gonna be our biggest need of the day. I think
the other one. If you want a morning game we're
gonna really be rooting for. I'd say it's Miami, Miami
at home against Buffalo. It looks like we're gonna need
Minnesota against your team, Baltimore. Baltimore is a very public side.
And we're also gonna need Arizona. Arizona's in Seattle this afternoon,
so Seattle. Actually both those teams that good wins in
primetime last week talking about Arizona and Seattle. Seattle destroyed
Washington on Sunday Night football, and Washington now is a
big fade team. We really will be rooting for Washington
the Commanders.
Speaker 1: Are you so excited? That's home?
Speaker 4: Oh? I can't wait. I'm very excited. Yes, I'm looking
forward to the game. Should be good. I'm on the
I'm on the Commander's pregame show later this morning with
you with our friend Tim Murray.
Speaker 1: I heard I heard Donald Trump's gonna be there too.
Does he get to interview you?
Speaker 4: Trump is gonna be at the game. I think so
ah that you know what, as somebody from the DC area,
I've been to sporting events. The presidents have been in
attendance at It sucks, man. It takes forever to get
in and out of there. There's all kinds of added security.
There was a Georgetown Duke game that President Obama attended,
which it's cool, I guess, but then there's all kinds
of extra layers of security. It's no good. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Why is it that you come on the show and
all these different person every week comes on talking about
how my last name is Epstein.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 4: We talked about that when I did the show with
you two weeks ago. We talked about that. I don't
think Epstein is that uncommon of a last name.
Speaker 2: It's so insane.
Speaker 1: I don't know. We've got a new Epstein, like.
Speaker 2: You think it's the.
Speaker 4: Same guy creating new accounts every week.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 4: So these people on the streets, I don't think these
people have a lot going on.
Speaker 1: So all they do is t me. It's fine. You
mentioned the Ravens, so let's talk about their rivals, the Steelers,
who are in prime time todad against the Chargers. I
saw that one go from three to two and a half.
I like the Chargers, but that I move against them
in LA it's kind of scaring me.
Speaker 4: We don't have a big decision on that game right now.
I'm looking at it right now. Where Chargers minus two
and a half, minus one sixteen, Remember we book them
all at minus one oh eight. We have there's a little
bit more tickets on the Chargers, a little bit more
money on the Chargers, but not really not a really
big decision. Sorry, I got my.
Speaker 1: Pug here, the dog in the office.
Speaker 4: Yeah, little Marios here, he's causing trouble. It's not a
really big decision right now. Actually, I can tell you
guys that on the points Bread, how about this stat
on the points Bread, Chargers and Steelers have exactly the
same number of tickets written on That's how evenly about
the game is exactly the same. I don't think it's
gonna be one of those Sunday night games where we
have a really big decision. I think it's gonna be
a pretty evenly big game.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, I hope it's the Chargers, but I'm biased
the game of that is gonna be. I think I'm
gonna be watching this one closely because I'm curious about
this Bucks Patriots game. The Bucks have been minus two
and a half. Pretty much all week, nobody moved off
the number. Yet it feels like the Bucks. The Sharps
like the Bucks pro I mean, the Joe's like the Bucks,
and it feels like the perfect spot for the Bucks
after the Pats have had such an easy schedule. Yet
you guys haven't moved the line at all.
Speaker 4: Why we did this morning. You're not wrong, but we
did this morning so late, probably while you were on
the show. We went to Tampa minus three even money,
minus three even money. It's it's a game that you're right.
The everybody seems to be on the Bucks. We finally
have moved the number up. I think some of that
is the injury report for Tampa. Some of that is
what you said. New England has played a favorable schedule.
I do think that's the best of the morning games
there's been. It's a well bet game. There's a lot
of tickets on that game.
Speaker 1: And it's this week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not like the Minnesota game. It's not like
the Buffalo game. Those are really one sided games. This game,
there are more tickets on the Bucks than the Patriots,
but it's not like a one way onslaught of tickets.
There is a support for New England as.
Speaker 1: Well Winning the name that's the name of the person
writing this Sean is Charlie Sheen Winning. Can we ask
John what dogs he personally likes today?
Speaker 4: Oh? Sure, Mario, my bud. I wish I could get
him to come over here. He's chewing on a box.
He's chewing on a box of shirts.
Speaker 1: Well, he's just Mario there.
Speaker 4: I can't bring Ellie to work if I if I
leave my office to go, you know, I'm doing a
radio show in ten minutes, or if I got to
go talk to somebody. She howls until I get back.
Whereas with with Mario, I can just give him to
one of the team members here and when I get back,
he'll just be asleep in their arms.
Speaker 1: Ellie doesn't get jealous.
Speaker 4: Ellie doesn't like. Oh yeah, Ellie's mad at me right
now because I left her.
Speaker 1: Yeah, She'll be said, Mario, don't be on the carpet please.
Speaker 4: What I Oh, he won't do that. He's a good boy.
Uh dogs, I like boy. Why would anybody care what
I like? With the How do I know? I think
I've seen this. I've seen everybody on Carolina, and I've
seen the number come down on New Orleans. Could I
personally get to the window and bet on New Orleans?
I could not do that. There's gotta be something. There's
gotta be something better I could do with my money.
Let me think here, I mean, I I see where,
I see where there's money on. I understand the money
on on on the forty nine ers. We need the
forty nine ers too.
Speaker 1: I forgot that. I actually like the way this person
fortune not. I like how he phrases Ariel. Would you
mind asking his excellency, be Honorable John Murray if he's
seeing much volume on the Niners Rams game.
Speaker 4: Oh, big time, big time question Fortune Not. You know,
we absolutely have. That's definitely the best afternoon game. It'll
be the most might end up being the most well
bet game of the day. I don't know Lions Commanders,
but there's a lot of money on that game. There's
a lot of money on Rams over the team total.
There's a lot of money on the over in that game.
There's a lot of parlays going to the Rams. You
got to see how the morning goes. First, if Buffalo wins,
if Baltimore wins, if the other big favorites in the
morning all win, then we'll need we'll need the forty
nine ers even bigger because the Rams are involved in
a lot of parlays, a lot of parlays with LA.
That's a that's a pretty good game. There's a lot
of money on that game.
Speaker 1: My group chat is talking about this Browns Jets game
that you mentioned before. Really great game actually Browns Jets
toilet Bowl. That line flipped against the Jets. How would
you approach that game?
Speaker 4: Oh, I'll be sure to watch that game. How would
I approach it? I'll not have it on TV, That's
all I'll approach it. I would say, you're going to.
Speaker 1: Do you work at the Westgate super Book. It'll be honest.
Speaker 4: I'm watching soccer today. We got we got look, stop me.
If you've heard this before on the show, The Wise
Guys are on Cleveland. I know that. I know. Cleveland
and New York are the two teams they always bet
and it's like the standoff. Who is their true love.
I'll say Cleveland because they've flipped Cleveland over to the
favorite position now and we do need the Jets for
a little bit.
Speaker 1: Cleland he's here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's a good guy. Yeah, we definitely took some
money on Cleveland. I'd say not one of our bigger needs,
but we'll be running for the Jets.
Speaker 1: What about total needs.
Speaker 4: Total needs under in the Rams game. I know I
mentioned that one already. I'll mention it again. We definitely
want that one to go under. We've taken a lot
of money on under in the Jacksonville game. Jacksonville, Houston
will actually want that one to go over. It's funny
when you get the when you get the really really
low totals like that game. Right now, we're thirty seven
and a half, the public tends to bet the under.
It's almost like we showed them the way by having
such a low total, so they go under the number.
They've done the same thing in the New Orleans game.
That total is at thirty eight and a half. We'll
want that one to go over as well. For totals,
those are the big ones. I'm sure we'll be rooting
for the under tonight in the in the in the
Steeler game, Steelers Chargers, But right now, I'd say those
are the big ones.
Speaker 1: What would Mario bet today?
Speaker 4: All right, what do you well? He's here with me.
He's my support dog today because Liverpool has a big
game against Manchester City, so he's here. He he always
sits with me when I sweat these soccer games in
the morning.
Speaker 1: That cuddling him because emotional support.
Speaker 4: Yeah, oh well, he just loves to be held, you know.
Uh baby, Yeah, he's a good little guy. Yeah, he's
here to help me get through this Liverpool man City game.
Speaker 1: I don't watches he watches real football on side.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, that's all. He watches. This guy well and
he wants to get down. All right, all right, go ahead.
Speaker 1: Any college basketball stand out to you today?
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's one that, uh one that caught my eye.
We took a really big bet on Georgia, so you
talk about needs. We took a very large bet Georgia
minus twenty nine. A guy bet that for thirty five
thousand this morning, so we are. I didn't expect my
day to include rooting for Morehead State plus twenty nine
against the Georgia Bulldogs, but it looks like it will.
We took some money on Campbell. That numbers moved up
a lot. I think I heard Yanni mentioned that right
when I logged in. He's right, that number moved up
quite a bit. Campbell from seven and a half to
nine and one more. They took Manhattan the Jaspers at
USC they bet that one down from twenty nine to
twenty seven and a half. It's good to have college
basketball back. You know, it's you that I love it.
And this is the I can tell you, guys, this
is the busiest time of the year for the people
that work in our risk offices. It's that that's that
intersection between college football and college basketball. There's so many games,
there's so many markets to manage. You've also got NFL obviously, NBA, NHL, UFC,
But having college football and college basketball intersect for a
few weeks, it's a lot. It's a lot to keep
track of.
Speaker 1: Last question and then I'll let you go. We didn't
talk about this game much, but the Eagles game. I
feel like that game. Yeah, Eagles Packers. What would you
guys need in that spot?
Speaker 4: So this is the best Monday night game of the year.
I think. I think this one. This one Baltimore Detroit
in week two or three was another really good one.
I think this is the best Monday night game of
the year. They asked me what totals we're rooting for.
We're gonna root for the under in this game. We
had some real sharp accounts take plus three minus one,
twenty and plus two and a half. We have got
all the way down to pick them on this game.
There has been some money on green Bay come back
here in the last twenty four hours or so, but
right now user.
Speaker 1: Protection or was that because you actually feel that the
Eagles are the right side?
Speaker 4: I think it was the accounts that bet Philadelphia prompted
us to go down to pick and write some money
against Philadelphia. Right now, we need green Bay because we've
taken some bigger bets on Philly. But we have a
very long way to go in that game. There's a
very long way to go. I that might not necessarily
the case. When the game kicks off, it does look
like we'll need the under forty five and a half.
Speaker 1: John Murray, you are the best. I'm sorry you're not
here with us on our tropical vacation. Oh, I guess
we've got this one. Will there be more than two
goals in Man City Liverpool?
Speaker 4: I would have to think. So I got the game
on all of my TVs right now, obviously I would
have to think. I'd say probably, yes, Liverpool's had a
lot of problems on their back line this season. It's
tough to imagine them keeping Man City out of the goal.
They also have a backup goalie playing, but hopefully Liverpool
can get one through themselves. I don't see this game
being like a zero zero type of game. I think
this isn't Arsenal where they just sit there and do
nothing the whole game. Both these teams actually try to
play soccer, so there probably will be some goalscorer.
Speaker 1: Hey, we like when teams try, which doesn't always happen
in pro sports world of the four main sports like
the NBA. But you know what, by the time I
get back, I'll be back on NBA Props because it
is a great spots props. John Murray, you are the best.
Thanks for joining us here on Last Call Sunday. I'll
see you next week. Next week, last, but certainly not
least joining the show today, we are going to be
joined by Wager Talks owned Jesse Schule, who has been
writing in the chat answering your questions. Hi Jesse, Happy Sunday.
Speaker 6: I'm all geared up ready to talk about all these games.
I was hearing you guys talk about I wanted to
jump right in. So should we save the best for
last or dive right into that Tampa New England game.
Speaker 1: Oh, I would love to hear what your thoughts are
on this Tampa New England game. Go for it.
Speaker 5: I kind of agree with Gianni.
Speaker 6: I was looking at this game all week thinking everything
says Tampa. It's, you know, coming off a bye. New
England's won six straight, but against questionable opponents, they've been
fortunate at times. I'm I personally, I had a big
play on New England last week and it was a loser,
and that's made me a little bit shy to bet
against them this, you know, to bet on them last
week and then to bet against them this week. See,
it seems like it could set up to be really
pissed off. But I don't think the side is actually
the best player. I like the total. The interesting thing
about these two teams is they're kind of like the
mirror image of each other.
Speaker 5: They're both very you know, they have two.
Speaker 6: Great quarterbacks, both very great in the passing game. They
like to pass. They neither one of these teams can
run the ball at all. They don't even really put
a serious attempt at running the ball. Both these teams
starting running backs are out with any injuries, and both
these teams are absolutely elite at defending the run, So
that's just even more incentive to just pass the ball
on every down. And I mean, I can't see it
going any other way. Like I said, you can't run
any of these teams, they don't have their starting running backs. Yeah,
it should be just a pass fest, and usually that
means over because the clock doesn't stop on an incomplete pass.
And the total sit at forty eight, I think that's
a low number for a game like this. But in
addition to that, just stacking up on receivers and quarterbacks
for their total yards and their touch you know, over
one and a half touchdowns, these kind of bets. I
think stacking up with half a dozen of those bets
for this game and then I had cheeky play on
the total would be a good way to attack this game.
Speaker 1: I like playing this total because this like Tampa Bay
minus two and a half minus three as much as
I like the Bucks. I feel like a lot of
people like the Bucks. It scared me off of it.
I know that there's another side for a divisional game.
Buffalo Miami Bubbalo went from minus not and a half
to minus eight and a half. I feel like we
haven't talked about this game so much on the show yet.
I know one of the needs that John Murray said
was they would be looking at the Dolphins today. How
would you look at this divisional matchup since it is
the second time they're facing off.
Speaker 6: I personally just dislike the Dolphins. I disliked their coach,
I disliked their quarterback. But this line divisional home dog
in this spot, with Buffalo coming off that big in
over Kansas City, there's no way I'm laying I think
if you're going to play the side, you probably the
sharp play would be to take the points. But again,
I'm looking at the prop market. As I mentioned everything
I said about Buffalo, the letdown spot A Chain yards
prop is what I like. I think is in the
sixth somewhere in the sixties. I think they will have
success running the ball. I think I think they'll be
in the game long enough to continue not to abandon
the run, and Buffalo struggles against the run. They've got
some injuries on the defense, and a Chain has been
a beast this year. I expect him to have a
big game.
Speaker 1: What other props have you looked at? Since we're talking props,
you know I love it.
Speaker 6: Well, I've got a six pack of props on the site.
You only got to pay twenty nine bucks for that.
So I would suggest if they really want all my props,
they go there and get them. But I'm prepared to
talk about a lot more. Let's see Rico Dowd has
been I've been on Rico Dowd by the way since
his first start, and for those who tune into the
live show on Sundays the end Zone live stream. Throughout
the game, I've been giving out Rico Dowd props every week,
and then last week I went off because it was
a tough match up what appeared to be a tough
matchup against the Packers cars. Of course, he just goes
off once again and Carolina wins out right. His yards
prop today is just overpriced. It's like eighty nine and
a half. But I think I would look at his
anytime touchdown prop. I mean, Carol, you guys talked about
this game and all the money is coming in on Carolina.
You know this is a favorable spot for them. They're
at home, they played well at home. I think they
only have one home loss against Buffalo. Aside from that,
they've won the rest of their home games. They have
a pretty solid offensive line. Dowd's just been so damn
good the chances of him get you know, he's decent
at receiving as well. He's in his career, he's got
a handful of receiving touchdowns to go along with the
rushing touchdown. So the anytime TD for Rico Dowd might
be the way to continue to cash in with such
a prolific running back.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's been a great pass catching back for sure.
Frank Houston, I think this is funny. Frank Houston wants
to know about the Houston Texans. Thoughts on this game
between the Texans and the Jags, Texans laying one and
a half total JOP thirty eight and a half to
thirty seven and a half.
Speaker 6: Well, I talk a lot of college football aeriel and
sometimes we talk about SICKO games. I think this might
qualify as a SIICO game in the NFL.
Speaker 1: The Browns and Jets.
Speaker 5: Well about that one too.
Speaker 1: Game of the Week I think you should do. I
think you should do a video every week Sickle Game
of the Week.
Speaker 6: I do a lot of big dogs, so that's my
thing is I do free play videos on big dogs
and six and zero with the college football videos.
Speaker 5: This Saturday.
Speaker 6: By the way, I also had Hawaii winning out right
and giving out the money line play for Hawaii. So
but I do I think the Texans should win this game.
I would go Texans if I was playing this one,
but too sicko for me.
Speaker 1: To sick go for you talking about dogs.
Speaker 6: One more thing about the Texans, though, Davis Mills. A
lot of people down on Davis Mill. All this guy socks,
you know, c J. Stroud's out. Texans are screwed. That's
the general consensus I heard around the water cooler. Let's
say I disagree. I think Davis Mills, if you look
at his overall body of work, he's been thrust into
the starting position in the past, and I don't remember
the Texans having a defense this good in his previous
stints as the backup coming into start. He's got a
bunch of career wins. He's an experienced backup. I'm not
afraid to back the Texans with Davis Mills. I think
the the idea that it's that he can't win is overstated.
Speaker 1: How about looking at the card, you said you like dogs?
Which dogs do you like today? In the NFL?
Speaker 5: I said I liked college football dogs.
Speaker 1: To be okay, so we only go college book ball dogs.
We're not going out of ball dogs because we've got
people in the chat wondering which dogs they should money
line parlay.
Speaker 6: I personally don't have any I don't have any plays
on any dogs today. For clients, I have mostly props.
I've got a couple of totals.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you don't like Arizona today.
Speaker 6: Then no way, no way, absolutely not. I think it's
a terrible spot for Arizona. And I've been arguing with
the people in the chat because I've covered a lot
of Seattle games and they've We've discussed Seattle's home home
record because I guess Seattle's won like nine straight on
the road or something like that, and I've had people
telling me don't bet Seattle at home. They suck at home,
And I just find that so amusing as a as
a fifty year old man, Seattle's been pretty damn good
at home for most of my life. But I guess
when you're twenty and you started watching football, a year ago,
Seattle sucks at home.
Speaker 1: Wow. I mean, if you've got records, But again we've
got different head coaches, so it is hard to go with.
Like certain trends that were maybe under pet Carol, they
might not be under McDonald. But again, if the records
are still proving to be winning in the last two
years at home, then Seattle at home is definitely hard
to fade. Jesse Schule, thank you so much for coming
on today. What are you promoting?
Speaker 5: Promoting the Weekend Warrior package.
Speaker 6: I guess it's it's not too late to grab that, actually,
because that will get you all day today and it'll
get you the Monday night football plays tomorrow. So I
would say that I got a six pack of props
up right now. I'm currently loading a college basketball total
for later on today, and if you sign up for
the Weekend Warrior, you'll get the six pack of props
and you'll get my Monday night football game tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Jesse Schoell follow him over at Jesse Schule on social media.
Thank you so much for joining us. We'll see you
next time.
Speaker 5: Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Favorite p so the day right now here on wayjer
Talk's last call, I've got a bunch that I gave
out this morning on the prop queen dot com newsletter.
You could subscribe at theprop queen dot com. I gave
out a bunch of props that some moved, some didn't.
DeAndre Swift I didn't like that this one moved against
me fifty one and a half to forty eight and
a half. I have to check if it is still
forty eight and a half now that he if he
is declared officially active. But they're getting the Giants and
Swift average fifteen carries in sixty three sorry sixty six
rushing yards since the start of last year against teams
bottom ten against the run. Now he gets the Giants.
The Giants have been terrible against the run. They allow
the second most rushing yards per games of running backs
sixty three percent of backs to face. The Giants have
gone over their rushing yards. Prop DeAndre Swift over rushing
yards is a play that I liked. Tua Sung of
Ailoa under twenty and a half completions two has gone
under this in four straight games against Buffalo when he's
in Miami. He just went over with twenty two completions
on September eighteenth, against the Bills. Usually in a divisional game,
the same results does not happen. Twice Buffalo has allowed
the second least completions per game to their opponents. Only
one quarterback has gone over his completions prop against the
Bills this year, and that was Drake May who went
over twenty one and a half completions with just twenty two.
So he like just went over Tua seeing them a
second time. And again we heard earlier on the show
demon a Chan is somebody. I think it was Jesse
who said he liked a Chan today. So if you
like somebody to run with the football, then Tua shouldn't
be throwing. I had justin fields under eighteen and a
half completions on oooh, I'd write this. I think on
Wednesday or Thursday. It's down to sixteen and a half.
And at this point that number is way too low.
He went under eighteen and a half and seven of
his last ten home games. But I can't get to
the window on a sixteen and a half. Bam night.
The Arizona Cardinals running back over ten and a half
receiving yards has gone up to eleven and a half,
even twelve and a half in some spots, I still
like it. Night's gone over this in four of his
last six road games. The Seahawks have been bottom ten
against pass catching backs since the start of last year.
This season, the Seahawks are allowing forty five for seving
yards a game to running backs. With Kyler Murray out
for Arizona, Jacoby Brissett in, I expect more rollouts and
dumpoffs Sunday Night football. Justin Herbert over thirty five and
a half pass attempts at home in prime time. He's
gone over this in ten of his last fourteen games.
Herbert's averaging just over thirty eight pass attempts per game
in these spots. The Steelers, they have actually allowed the
most pass attempts per game to quarterbacks forty and a half.
All but one quarterback this year went over their past
attempt prop against Pittsburgh and that was back in Week one,
mister Justin fields. So those are my favorite props for today.
You could check out the prop queen dot com and
I give out props like that every day when I'm
not in Aruba. I didn't. I'm going to start the
news letter back up this week, gonna do NFL props
only through the week and then starting next week I
will be back doing props for NBA and NFL every
day of the week on the prop Queen dot com,
I do about six days a week. Saturdays I typically
take off, but mid Major Matt does his college football
newsletters which cover for the days that I typically don't do.
So the prop Queen dot com is the place to go.
Subscribe and you could find all of this apermission get
it right to your inbox. I also do the Prop
Queen Pod Monday through Friday five to six pm Eastern Time,
where I give out this info as well. We focus
mainly on just props, so if you like prop bets,
then you could go to the prop Queen Pod Monday
through Friday. Subscribe to the YouTube page at prop Queen Sports,
subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube page as well, and
like because it is very helpful for us here trying
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It's free, it's very easy to do, and it just
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liking to the YouTube page for wager Talk Last Call
I'm the prop Queen Aria Epstein. It is time to
hit the beach. Carl Oh my god, we're going to Carlito's.
Kelly and I are very excited to be watching football
all day on the beach. So I am going to
work on my town because I have to be like
a different color b At the time I get home
after two weeks in Aruba or else, everyone's going to
be laughing at me that I came home looking maybe
like the color of my shirt. Go luck to your
bets today, everybody. We'll see you next week here on
Waitor Talk, Last Call on a Sunday