Speaker 1: All right, welcome in and it's time for full court press.
It is Thursday, that means the mid majors are out
in full force. We're a couple of minutes late this morning,
so very quick recap. Two and two for me yesterday
was sitting two and one after the early games. Had
New Mexico last night and they did not show up
in the second half. But Arkansas Pine Bluff got it
done for me with an outright win. So I'm dressed
accordingly today. This was a gift from the athletic department.
They were awesome to me down there.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: I felt like I had to bust out the Golden
Lions zip up today. So two and two for me yesterday, Rob,
how'd you do?
Speaker 2: Yeah? It wasn't brilliant yesterday, Adam.
Speaker 3: It started out with a really tough loss with Detroit
Teetotal over seventy four and a half.
Speaker 2: And I feel like I'm repeating some.
Speaker 3: Of the stuff that you went through in November and December,
where you had Troy seventy four points thirty seconds left.
The other side, You're going to the free throw line,
two shots with your point guard, any front rims both
of them, and you're like what are we doing here?
Speaker 2: You lose by half a point? Was not great.
Speaker 3: And then of course Washington State, which we left here
as a play the team total over was my featured
play of the day and Oregon State comes up with
fifty one second half. I would have thought it'd be
the other way around, but it wasn't. So was a
poor one in three College Basketball Day. NBA bailed me
out with the Denver Nuggets, so we didn't lose quite
that much, but college Hoop was a tough day, one
of the few tough days we had all season.
Speaker 1: Well, listen, it's a long season. You know. Our goal
is to just try to get as much good info
out on a daily basis. So let's bounce back today. Rob,
I was, you know, kicking around feature games with you,
and I said, you know, I really, I know. There's
a Power Conference game tonight, but it's a twenty five
point spread. There's only so much we can talk about
in that one. So I chose I want to head
to the American Athletic Conference because this conference is If
you haven't been following American Athletic Conference basketball, this is
as intriguing of a league as there is in the country.
In terms of like how close these teams are, how
close every single game is. Tulsa and Fau was scenes
at the end of that game, Rob, I don't know
if you saw the end or if you had FAU
plus two and a half, you might want to play
the lottery this morning. A crazy end to that game
and for that one to stay within two and a half.
But they're all great games. They're all like, there's so
many of these teams are so close. The reason I
bring that up to lead into our feature game here, Rob,
is the team that everyone thought was gonna run away
with this league, the Memphis Tigers, are not really even
in that top group right now. They're sitting down there
five and four, and they're playing a team that I
think a lot of others may have thought was another
team that would be in the mix at the top.
I know, if you go back to the beginning of
the season, I personally like South Florida. They're in second
place right now. But like the two teams that I
think were on most people's you know, radar as the
best teams in this league, UAB and Memphis, I would
go as far as to say both have kind of
struggled this season and now they're sitting there five and
four National TV, ESPN two tonight, really big game for
the loser of this game is in trouble in this league.
In my opinion, I think the winner gets themselves back
into the mix. So Rob Bino, UAB Memphis tonight. This
one is down in. This one is down in Birmingham, Alabama,
which means UAB hits the road, but it also means
Pennies on the road is a slight dog. So how
are you seeing this one? UAB Memphis.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the first thing that hits you when you're
handicapping Memphis is their more comfortable position is.
Speaker 2: As a.
Speaker 3: You add to that and the fact that they're the
best defense in the AAC defensive efficiency wise, so that's helpful.
UAB has just been a complete bus so far this season.
But you look at the last two games they played
and think, well, they beat North Texas, which is a
really good defense, slow down type team. Maybe there's something
going on with the Indie Kennedy squad.
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure.
Speaker 3: I have a lot more faith in the ceiling of
Memphis at this point in time of the season than
I do in that of UAB, and that comes off
the heels of a loss to Ron Hunter's two lane team,
which isn't really that good, But I.
Speaker 2: Think that helps here.
Speaker 3: Again, we're playing situations and spots a lot of times
at this time of year, and I think Memphis off
the loss, probably brings a little bit more energy here tonight.
Memphis as a road dog, probably brings a little more
energy tonight. And then personnel wise, I just think they're
better than what UAB is.
Speaker 2: You ain't be.
Speaker 3: Generally speaking under Andy Kennedy, fast paced, high scoring. It's
not vintage UAB in either of those categories so far
this season. So to me, I think the total and
again I've said this before about Memphis games, so hard
for me to figure totals with this team. They've been
a little bit higher lately as far as final score
results go, and maybe that's a sign of something, but
I think they clamp down here defensively. So for me,
not a game I played, I do like the Memphis side.
I could get there still Adam plus two because I
just just because I think they're the better team in
this instance, and there is a lot to play for
it this time in February and not that UAB doesn't
have a lot to play for themselves, but I just
don't know that they'll be able to dent the Memphis defense.
Past editions of UAB, I wouldn't worry about it. I'd
probably be on over in this game. Don't know that
I can get myself to believe that there's definitely gonna
be one hundred and fifty four points in this one.
So for me, probably Memphis plus the points very very slightly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Rob. We always talk about on this show, how
we do this show in a time slot where a
lot of these numbers are moving, like in real time,
And I would say with this one just moved to
So this particular game has had some market activity here
over the last I would say ten minutes or so,
pretty much right since we logged on the show, Like
as it stands in real time right now, with that
hitting two and a half, I think you can beat Memphis.
I think it's going to get that back. So it
looks like UAB was a point point and a half
favorite here. It had got up to it was one
and a half that had got up to two. Now
the two and a half's are coming. And as I
watch our odds Logic screen, which again I guess, good
time to promot Odds Logic. I really think it's the best.
I've gotten so used to it at this point point.
It's just so easy to use to organize, and it's
and it's cheaper than a lot of the other, like
you know, kind of comparable things out there. I think
the best bang for your buck is odd Logic. I
make I get zero dollars to say that. By the way,
I might have to strike up a deal there, Rob
because I'm over here promoting it. But I know a
lot of the wager Talk folks use it and sort
of swear by it. It really is really good. Point is,
I'm watching the screen right now. I'm watching every sharp
book get hit at two and a half. The second
it gets to two and a half, that to me
in my head was like, all right, that's my that's
my sort of buy sort of price with Memphis. Now,
I haven't done it yet, but I totally understand like
wanting to take that key number in a game that
really is you know, I would say it's a pretty
even match up all things considered. I personally like the
spot for Memphis. You know, we talked about these teams
getting into February and having almost like the come to
Jesus moment right where it's like, hey, your season isn't
going the way you thought. It's you know, you've had
some bad results from Memphis. It's losing three of the
last four. You're not going to be the team that
runs away with this league now. But there's still a
lot of season to play, right, You're still very much
in the mix at five and four, just two games
off of the lead in this in this league, and
and you know, Memphis is going to have to start
being realistic about things. They're they're probably not an out.
They're not an at large team. I know they wanted
to set their season up to be an at large team,
but they're just not that. So there's still a lot
of season left. They'll obviously have their shot in the
American Tournament. But I think this is a good sort
of rallying point for Penny, who tends to do well
in the you know, in this spot as an underdog,
which's now an underdog. And when you look at these
two teams, I don't see like so many redeeming qualities
here from ua B to say, oh well, UAB is
like like a better team, and they'd be going in
a you know, I look and say, okay, well, I'm
getting I still think Memphis might be the better of
these two particular teams, and now you're gonna give them
to me in a spot where I think maybe favors
Memphis off of a bad loss and plus two and
a half, that's pretty good. That's good enough, Rob, I
think I have to take Memphis there in that In
that scenario.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think when you look at the game, none
of those you know, none of the units that are
going to be on the floor of Memphis offense, Memphis defense,
UA B offense, UAB defense, Three of the four are
mediocre at best. The one that stands out is the
Memphis defensive end, which has still been really really good
in this league, good enough to be the best defensive
efficiency team in the league.
Speaker 2: So I would bank on.
Speaker 3: The road defense and Penny motivationally to get this to
like I say, Andy Kennedy's team in recent years, I
probably would have been all over and the money is
all I'm over in this game. Generally speaking, I would
be there too, but I'm just not sure Jacob.
Speaker 1: I'll go to Jacob's question or kind of comic because
he makes a good point. He says, Memphis is one
and six on the road this season. Yeah, that's listen,
that people are going to see that. That's certainly, that's
certainly a concern. I think when you when you talk
about Memphis, I guess my sort of counter there is,
you know, I've been to I've been to a lot
of these venues in the American at this point, and
none none of them have had just like what I
consider to be like a like an insane home atmosphere
where I would like bump considerably for home court. I
think the one that I haven't been to yet that
is probably the one that everyone thinks is like the
more hype sort of home spots would be Wichita and
South Florida. And of course one of those home one
of those away losses for Memphis was Wichita. Tulsa was
a good atmosphere over the weekend. But again I don't
I've been to Tulsa. I've been to Temple, I've been
to Fau, I've been in North Texas. I think there's
another one on this list. I didn't go into any
of those buildings Florida Atlantic, even Florida Atlantic, Like you know,
they they struggled to get twenty eight hundred at the Lye.
And it's not like I don't think the students are
as invested as they were maybe after they had like
one or went to the final four. So I'm just
not I'm not giving like the huge bump for home
court here. And I've heard from you people that UAB
doesn't have this great home court either, So I think
I gravitate more toward Penny as a dog than Memphis
being one and six on the on the road. If
you're if you're truly looking for like like a trend,
I'd prefer the Pennies really good as an underdog trend
over the Memphis is one and six on the road,
because I think some of that small sample size.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And you could counter that really easy at them
by saying uab's zero to four at home last four
games in the American East. They lost at home by
thirteen to USF, by twenty two to Telsa, by five
to Florida Atlantic, and by five to Wichita. They haven't
beaten anybody their last four home games. Those are all
outright losses. So what's an oh and four team doing
being favored against a team of you know, I guess
in my in my mind, I think that Memphis is
slightly stronger, but book maker power rating numbers probably relative
strength here they're getting that bump for home court.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: One in six one way, oh and four the other way.
You know, pick whichever hand yournade you on a stand
in front of it.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, hey, and with how with how good the the
just that every game in this conference seems to be
you might be good with getting two and a half points, right,
you might end up in the in the one possession
of the game that comes down to the final possession
that neither team can close out. Andy, maybe you get it.
Either way, it'll be a good one. That's That's a
nine pm tonight ESPN two. Certainly one that a lot
of people will have on their TVs. And good luck
if you did get involved with that one. I have
not done so yet. All right, Rob, we're gonna go
to Garth. Garth is donated. We appreciate you. We appreciate
all of you in the chat, even if you know
the donations, the likes, the subscribe, the retweets, just simply
showing up and watching the show every day is greatly appreciated,
and but we will do Guarth's game. This is another
power conference game. This is a power conference game. I
don't know that we've had the argument of like, is
the American a mid major league at this point. I
lean toward it sort of being that. But we know
the Big twelve is not, and we do have some
Big twelve actions. So Garth says, and I'll let you
kick this someone off, Rob, because I'm going to try
to pull off the incredible feat of betting while we're
on the show. Very very difficult to do all of
a sudden, but I'm gonna let you kick this one off.
It's Cincinnati West Virginia. What Garth says is revenge spot
for since he at home, he knows both teams typically
played to the under. He thinks that total is too low,
so you're our totals guy. Anyway, talk to me about
West Virginia Cincinnati for Garth.
Speaker 3: First point he makes, I just want to go off topic,
hairbit and say to everybody that revenge games, this is
the time of year where we see second time around.
I went through ad him this morning and counted there
are eight legitimate revenge games today inside of conference, a
lot of it mid major because their tournaments come earlier,
they're into the second time around quicker.
Speaker 2: But like Garth says, this is one.
Speaker 3: It was a sixty two to sixty West Virginia win
the first time around against Cincinnati West Virginia at home.
Now since he gets a chance to get their revenge,
I would be in agreement that the total here is
really low.
Speaker 2: I mean, we started the.
Speaker 3: Year by talking about Ross Hodge and coming from North Texas,
and that's the way West Virginia is going to style.
West Virginia is gonna do adapt here under his leadership,
and it's pretty much come true. They are a good
defensive team. Of course, you're in the Big twelve. We're
being good only puts you middle of the pack. Cincinnati's
rated even a little higher under West Millard defensively, but
I do think there's some redeeming offensive qualities for both,
although if you just go through the analytics, they're two
of the three worst efficient offensive teams inside this league.
West Virginia spent a lot of time this year talking
about really good freshmen. West Virginia obviously one of those
teams with one. For me, just on sheer numbers, Garth,
I would probably lean toward over. This thing's come way
down at this point, thirty two down to twenty eight,
twenty eight and a half. You're looking for sixty five
sixty four. You got sixty two to sixty.
Speaker 2: The first time.
Speaker 3: And there's some game film, and let me just say
real quick that in that game, Adam, the shooting was horrendous.
On the Cincinnati side, they were the road team, only
scored nine points in the first ten minutes. But when
thirty seven percent from the floorid thirty four percent from three.
Not a lot of free surprisingly in this game, not
a lot of free throws. You would think a Cincinnati
West Virginia game would have a lot of trips to
the free throw line. Cincinnati only got there nine times,
made four. The other side, West Virginia got there thirteen times,
only made seven, barely fifty percent on one side, less
than fifty percent on the other side. You make a
couple of those free throws in that first meeting, and
you are over this particular total.
Speaker 2: So I could see some things changing here.
Speaker 3: They don't have to change in a huge manner in
order to get to one twenty nine in this case,
so I'd be with Garth.
Speaker 2: It's not something where I'd say we've got a.
Speaker 3: Ton of wiggle room just because of styles of teams.
But Wes Miller's team has shown the ability to score
at times. West Virginia has shown the ability to score
at times. And like I said, when you have second
time around game film, coaches always like to try and
fix what went wrong the first time. On the Cincinnati end,
it was the offense. And Cincinnati gets the home floor
this time. So for me, I'd probably think their offense
has been put output increases and therefore it gets up
and over.
Speaker 1: You know, this is this is one where my I
guess my initial reaction is where the market is sort
of leaning to here. It was like, why is Cincinnati
favored by six? You know, like what is you know,
I know they had, I know they've had you know,
had a big win over Iowa State, which to me
was was such a a that that was more there
was a bad spot for Iowa State. If you go
back to the Iowa State game, I believe they had
just lost their first game, which was a which was
a trip to Kansas. So they went to Kansas. They
got blown out, and then they had to follow it
up and play another road game a couple of days
later at Cincinnati. So as Kelly Stewart loves to stay,
I think the I think Iowa State lost that Kansas
game twice, right like, and it was to Cincinnati's benefit
getting that that win in that spot, because you know,
if I remember correctly, and that was that was on
a Saturday when I was trying to watch you know,
seven other games. That was a very lethargic effort from
Iowa State. So I guess credit listen, credit to Cincinnati
for getting the big home win, but I think that
had more to do with Iowa State just being in
a really tough spot, huge winning streak. Than they lose
to Kansas, then they have to turn around and play
another road game. Since that win, they've you know, Cincinnati
has lost three or four not competitive with Arizona whatsoever.
Lose to Arizona State, which is not a good not
a good team. No one's no one's faulting you for
losing to Houston, but still not competitive in that game either.
So now so now be like all of a sudden,
Cincinnati is laying six points laying three possessions against a
West Virginia team that you know, beat them the first time,
right sixty two to sixty final in Morgantown back in
back on January sixth. I mean just I didn't have
a tremendous opinion on this game from a from a
handicapping standpoint. But Garth, if you like the under, and
the under is that is that number one twenty seven
and a half, you almost kind of have to like
the plus six or at least think that there's the
per point that you robbed Veno on plus six. It
is definitely there, so I lean the dog. Again. I
haven't had a great beat on either of these two
teams this year, so I don't know if this will
make my card today, but that number seemed awfully high
at minus six.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd have to agree.
Speaker 3: I mean, granted, it's revenge, but it was a two
point game the first time around.
Speaker 2: These two teams.
Speaker 3: Are basically equal after you know, the eye test will
tell you that they're about equal in what they do
well what they don't do well, and it should it
could be another two point game the other way. Back
to his point guard's point about total, I do think
probably it's a it's a shade too low.
Speaker 2: Got to rename that game to Bob Huggins Bowls, shouldn't they?
Speaker 3: I mean seriously, whenever I think of SINCEI in West Virginia,
that's the first person that comes to mind for me.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, no, absolutely, Bob Huggins, great coach. Yeah, it
was really you have to, I guess for me. For
my I was I was old enough to you know,
I was old enough to remember those good Cincy Bob
Huggins teams. That was. Those were some good teams. I
want to say, did did they not get to number one?
They were number one with Keny Martin at one point,
were they not?
Speaker 2: Yes, there they were?
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was it. That was a that was a
great run those Cincy teams late nineties, right late that
was probably late nineties, early two thousand.
Speaker 3: Yeah, because Kenyon Martin winds up in the NBA Championship
with the nets in like oh one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that was that was uh. And I remember
as a kid right around a kid at that time,
I wanted it was like obviously hard to get, but
I always wanted Cincinnati gear that that logo for for
a you know, probably like what twelve thirteen year old
Adam Trigger thought that those Sincy jerseys in that logo
was as good as it gets. All right, let's uh,
let's continue on. Let's go to Paul. Paul says, first
thing I want to say is thank you for the
Missouri Alabama game breakdown. Huge help. That was. I think
we're a week ago or two at this point. I
remember commenting because I think, I think when you donate
in the ten dollars range, Rob Bino, which is extremely
generous and we very very much appreciate, it's a different color.
So I remember commenting on the Missouri colors on the
on the text, and we've got them again here. You
could say they're also Arkansas Pine Bluff colors. Who knows
how to won with them last night as well? And
he says, but he says he likes the over in Jacksonville, Queens.
So it looks like it looks like we're going to
the Atlantic Sun here, Rob Brito, Jacksonville, Queens. This this
is a this is about as this is about as
you know, off the reservation as you can get even
on mid major Thursday right here, because this is isn't
even the biggest game in the a Sun. But that's
what we're here to do, talk about the games that
you guys want to talk about, and of course if
someone donates to the show, we're going to get the game.
So Queen's University, they'll rob, has been awesome. They've been
the best team in this league this year. And I'll
actually comment on that in a different game in a
little bit. But Queen's University has been awesome. They play Jacksonville.
Paul wants to know about the total. So what do
you got for me on the total in Jacksonville Queens?
Speaker 3: Well, I'd say real quick, anytime Queens appears on the board,
the over is the first place that I look in
this instance, when I went back and looked at the
original meeting or the first meeting against Jacksonville, it only
hit won twenty eight, simply because Jacksonville can't score. It's
the worst offensive team in the conference. Queens did their
part score. So actually, for Queens, that's not doing their part.
Scoring seventy seven against Jacksonville. You want them to be
somewhere in the eighties to get it over. But Jacksonville,
listen for what it's worth, they stink on offense. They're
really good inside league on defense. So it's a team
that wants to go slow, wants to try and have
court you to death when you're just a simple fundamental thing.
When you're not as good athletically each and every year,
sometimes what coaches try to do is, you know, slowing
the game down works as.
Speaker 2: A form of defense.
Speaker 3: If you're not good enough to guard man to man,
you have to be in zone all the time, et cetera,
et cetera, and you can't score with the other team,
then you slow the game down and try.
Speaker 2: To limit the possessions, et cetera, et cetera. That's what
they did to Queens in that game.
Speaker 3: Queens shot it really well. I mean almost one point
two points per possession is a good number. But if
they repeat that here, you've got to get something out
of Jacksonville to get this total over. And I think
it's why the money has pushed this one down. There's
a lot of instances where I will play overs with
really really good offensive teams against really really good defensive teams.
But when the other side of the floor says the
other stinks it's hard, Queens is just not going to
give them up like water to Jacksonville. They didn't the
first time Jacksonville four nineteen from three. As I look
at the earlier box way back on January eight, a
month ago, I don't know. It's a tough one for me, Paul.
I see where you're going with it, because it's relatively
low for a Queen's game. When you can get something
in the mid one forties or the upper end of
the one forties, I think this one's one forty six.
You want to react to that, But I just don't
know what we're gonna get out of Jacksonville here. It's
almost like if you don't get I'll say this, if
you don't get eighty five out of Queens this time,
then you probably have no chance because Jacksonville on the
road isn't gonna come with a lot of support. So
it's got to be a Queen's blowout somewhere to the
tune of ninety to sixty one. If you see that
in your you know, crystal ball, then that's that's the
way to go. I definitely get what he's saying, Adam.
I just don't know that I could bring myself to
do it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I misspoke a little bit about Queens they were,
they were it seemed like they were running away with
this league at one point, and then they've lost. They've
lost three straight. So from a from a standpoint of
like getting right here, Rob Vino, it certainly feels like
this could be the spot where Queens, you know, really
lays into someone. Of course, they lose on the road
as a favorite last time to Bellerman. Uh, they lose
a home game to Central Arkansas. I had to double
check that score, one hundred to ninety against Central Arkansas.
They so they've lost a few games in a row. Now,
as as a as a favorite, I believe, I believe
three in a row. The first meeting, they crushed Jacksonville
on the road seventy seven to fifty one. So yeah,
I'm I'm again. This was not one that I put
a ton of of thought into yet, just because I
don't feel like I have as good of a beat
on these two teams, haven't. I don't think I've bet
Actually that's actually not true. I've I've faded. I've successfully
baited Jacksonville at points this year. So that's what I
would do here. I think if I was gonna play
this one, it would have to just be Queen's lay
it and hope that this looks like the first meeting,
because if it looks anything like the first meeting, Rob,
You're gonna cash easily with queens. That was a blowout.
All right, We are off and running today. Sean, our guy,
Sean Higgs is in the chat. Someone's like, this card sucks.
He's like sucks. He's like, I got ten games. I
already moved in five others. I'm about to fire on. Yeah,
that's my biggest problem on a Thursday card like this,
when all the mid majors are playing and these are
all the teams that I feel like I have better,
you know, better insight on than the market. I am
in that boat a lot of times where I'm sitting
there with like fifteen games and I'm like, what do
I do? Right? Do I fire all fifteen? Probably? Not?
Speaker 2: So?
Speaker 1: Yeah, pairing down on Thursday for me is tough to Sean,
I agree with that. I'll and I'll give out. I'll
give out at least a clock. I'll give out one
client play on the show. I even again, it's I
said this yesterday and this is I'll use this time
to promo our package. Rob and I have the Double
the Firepower CBB package. It's all of my plays, it's
all of Rob's plays. I don't mind giving one out
on the show because, like pretty much, we're at the
point where almost every day, with the exception of maybe
a Monday or a Friday, I'm gonna have like four,
like four plays maybe five that are all client plays.
So we'll make sure you get one on the show.
But bang for your buckwise, Rob Bino, that's a I
can't I think that's as good as it's ever been
for my plays during a basketball season. I don't know
that we've ever had a package as good as that
one from a value standpoint. So that that's my promo.
Check check it out. I don't think you'll be disappointed
with the amount of info and different angles you're getting
on that package. All right, Rob, we've got to do
this one. I almost I almost was gonna make this
the feature game because I think that this is possibly
the game of the night. And then I said, ah,
we gotta do something a little bit bigger. Got to
go to national TV. No, I'm not talking Sianna Iona
though that is a big deal to folks in the
Capitol region. But I am talking about William and Mary.
You and c Wilmington, Rob, I also and Clement. The
chat says, can we get thoughts on Wilmington and William
and Mary? And we've actually had a lot of thoughts
on these two teams this year. So what I wanted
to point out Rob, I'm watching games the last you
Know over the weekend, and I wrote, I jotted down,
make sure to bring this up when next time these
guys play. You and I have talked about William and Mary.
It feels like every time they play a game, they
come up on our show. You've had success with William
and Mary. From a totals perspective. Something I said was
we got to revisit this team in February because Brian
Earl's teams in the past, the teams he had up
here in Central New York at Cornell when they weren't
his suonoper experienced teams that were very, very used to
playing his system. They would they would run out of
gas a little bit. In February. He plays such a
grueling system, so much press, so much up and down
on offense that there are Cornell guys that were on
record saying like we just straight up ran out of gas.
We were not ready for like, we were not conditioned
properly to play the way he wanted to play. Now
he's at William and Mary, so you would think year
two that might not be as big of an issue.
But his roster is a lot different than it was
last year. Just going off of memory, I think I
think he inherited some upperclassmen last year that are no
longer there. So I had mentioned to you, Rob, I said,
we got to talk about this. Come back early February,
and over the weekend William and Mary looked as gassed
as I've seen them all season. I mean, Campbell lay
up lines for Campbell over the weekend, right to the rim,
no resistance whatsoever. Campbell dropped one oh four in a
one oh four to ninety six final down in I
believe Buois Creek, North Carolina. Oh I'm sorry, No, that's
even worse, Rob. That was at well, that was a
home game for the Tribe. Steve Merrill leaving in disgust
at the effort for that game. One oh four to
ninety six. Now it's a road game for the Tribe.
They're headed to Trash coliseumjun in Wilmington. They say, this
is the best mid major environment in college basketball. I
already saw the white T shirts on the chairs. It's
a white out at Wilmington tonight. Rob, you're the William
and Marry guy this year for this show. What are
you doing with this one?
Speaker 2: Well, I'll say this.
Speaker 3: I did watch that Campbell William and Mary game the
other day, and DJ Smith for Campbell could do no wrong.
I mean the first twelve minutes of that game, I
think he had like twenty three points already. Everything he
shot went in. Like you mentioned, the defensive resistance was
zero to the rim, to the rim, three pointer, three pointer.
William and Mary given credit. They made an incredible run
at Campbell in the second half. If you were in
game betting in that one and played William and Mary
when they got behind thirty to eight, you know you
made a little bit of cash because they came back
pretty strong.
Speaker 2: Campbell did out last in one oh four ninety six.
Speaker 3: Only bring that up because that's kind of the way
the first game went with these two teams. Just the
revenge setting for Wilmington and they get to try and
exact that revenge at home on their home floor. Like
you say, in a very good atmosphere, but William and
Mary was out to the thirty to eight lead to
start that game.
Speaker 2: First ten minutes boom thirty eight.
Speaker 3: William and Mary last thirty minutes of that one sixty
two to forty seven.
Speaker 2: N see Wilmington.
Speaker 3: Do you believe the first ten minutes or do you
believe the last thirty in that game where Wilmington was
fifteen points better, I'm inclined to believe the back half
of the game is what I believe.
Speaker 2: I think will Wilmington.
Speaker 3: Is superior all around. I think that maybe they got
hit with that initial punch. Thinking back to that game
where William and Mary, like you say, they're always coming
at you with that press. Wilmington didn't handle things really
well first ten minutes, but once I got settled in,
it was a different story. At home here in a
revenge spot. Got to believe that they're the right side
in this game. Honestly, Now, William and Marry can score
with the best of them, I know, but Wilmington's been
a really good defense for the most part this season.
So after seeing it once Adam and seeing it on
the road, I just believe William and Mary makes all
the proper adjustments, which it looks like they made over
the course of the last thirty minutes of the first
game already, so they know what to do. And that
was a fifteen point difference, and I get a little
bit of that can kind of be swept away because
it's chase mode, and sometimes when you're in chase mode
you do close a gap just because you're trading threes
for twos, et cetera.
Speaker 2: Wasn't really the.
Speaker 3: Case in that game. They were just better the last
thirty minutes. So I would look towards NC Wilmington here. Again,
they've been the best team all season long. The one
thing about them is, and I think you mentioned this
last time we talked about Wilmington, they haven't really won
by huge margin inside the league, and that's what you
run into here when you're a favorite, can you create
some separation. But I just think that the enormity I
shouldn't say, Normandy.
Speaker 4: It's not like it's a super Bowl, but the substantial,
significant significance of this game probably brings William and Mary's
excuse me, North Carolina Wilmington's best effort, and they cover
the number.
Speaker 1: I want to I want to bring up a comment
because I want to just I think this is a
good point here, he said. So Ocho says, Adam, you
said that about New Mexico yesterday. Yeah, I did. I
mentioned that New Mexico has a great home atmosphere, and
it's worth it's always for me, worth a couple of points.
I want to make something very very clear. I've never
once made a bet with the rational this has a
really good home atmosphere. It's just always just going to
be one component. Never once if I bet said, oh
they have a great home APPA or that's a beat. Yesterday, yeah,
I pointed out that New Mexico, you know has you
know has has been someone I'd be looking to play
on at home. This is very interesting that he brings
that game up, though, because it's almost the same. It's
almost the same thing as New Mexico was in where
they were undefeated at home. But they haven't been good
at home against the spread. Wilmington's the same way. They
haven't lost a home game yet this year, or maybe
they lost. I'm sorry they did lose a home game.
It was a bad loss too, I remember it. It
was it was Howard they lost to at home, I believe,
and maybe maybe another. But the point is Wilmington over
the last couple of years, if you were to put
their home just straight up home record out there over
the last couple of years, it's going to look very,
very impressive. They rarely lose at home, but this year
they're not very good against the spread at home. So
you know, my buddy Aaron kid, who's very sharp, I
always trust what he says. He kind of texted me
last time. He goes, Man, Wilmington should really win this game.
Good revenge spot would love to find a way to
play their money line. Yeah, like I I kind of
think the same. I'm with you in that regard Rob
where I think I think it is a nice sort
of bounce back spot or really more of a revenge
spot for Wilmington. I think I like the over better
here because I think there's gonna be big time paths
to both teams scoring. So I'll bring I'll go to
buy you here, he says. How does this game not
hit one sixty? Yeah, how does it not hit one sixty?
If Wilmington's even a little bit tired defensively? Wilmington or
I'm sorry William and Mary, which they certainly looked over
the weekend, Wilmington's gonna be able to score. That being said,
you talked about the first meeting, what does Wilmington do
so drastically that William and Mary isn't scoring in this game?
I think was kind of the you know, one of
the points you were making. So I'll take a rare
This is a rare. I always like when this happens, Rob,
because of course you always are mostly totals, pretty much
exclusively sides. You come here and you like Wilmington, and
I'm like, I kind of love the over so little
reverse for us, but I think there's points in this one.
I'm with you by you. How does it not hit
one sixty? And Shane says Wilmington money line? Yeah, maybe
we can. Maybe maybe we can find something to pair
that Wilmington money line with because I would kind of
be uh, I would kind of be inclined to think
they win this game. I don't know. I just I
thought they'd be the best team in this league this year, Rob,
And you know, maybe it's because c J. Luster never
stepped on the court that that I didn't appropriately downgrade them,
But like, I don't know, I still think they're probably
watching enough Towson and some of these other quote unquote
top CAA teams. I still I still think Wilmington is
the is the class of this league. All right, I
am uh, I've got two plays locked in right now,
I'm thinking of I'm kind of scrolling through the chat.
I am gonna I am gonna ask you if you
do you want to do a two teamer or a
three teamer today? Rob, should we switch it up and
go three teamer? Because if we if we did, we
could use Wilming money line is one of the three.
If we you know what I'm saying.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, you just pulled the words right out of
my mouth and said, if we're gonna go three, let's
put Wilmington money line in it.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm all for that.
Speaker 3: If we want to go three, let's use that as
the you know, as the third man piece, so to speak.
And then when we get to ours, we'll just add
those two that I think Wilmington's the right side of
that game.
Speaker 1: So what what are you seeing for a market money
line price? And I we will find another money line
leg for you to to to team with as well,
but we're gonna put Wilmington money line as the as
the third layer, as the yeah, we'll call it the
first leg of our three team or today, what do
you see for a price?
Speaker 3: I think I think what's fair because as we know,
the amount of the size of the big between books
is incredible. Some treat you fairly, some don't. But I
think the fair price here is minus two twenty. You
see as low as two ten, and believe it or not, Adam,
you see as high as two forty five shot there,
but two twenty seems to be like the common read
in between most of these places.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, like I'm still gonna go off of
my hunch that William and Mary playing there playing the
the Brian Earl style might be a little bit sluggish.
Coming in the month of February. They're gonna need to
hit that stretch in their schedule. I haven't looked at it,
but where they get like the full week off or
they just get to run someone out to the point
where they can like rest everyone. I'm kind of willing
after watching that Campbell game, I'd be really surprised if
if they roll into Trash Coliseum and win in this spot.
So yeah, I like that quite a bit, all right,
let's let's go back. I'm gonna scan the chat real
quick and either grab a game or decide if I
want to give my parlay leg out. I'll do it
within the next ten seconds, I think. I mean, you
know what, I think, I'm gonna give out my parlay leg.
That's that's what I've that's what I've decided to do
right here. So let me just head to the Uh.
I've I've got two plays locked in, and so the
first thing I want to just really quickly do is
check the odd screen because just to for for for clients,
I'm always gonna give the one that's moved a little
bit more on the show. Uh well, that's that's actually
for myself too, since like we do sell plays here.
So that's another quick promo for wager talk dot com
where you can get all of our plays. We already
promoted our package. I'll go ahead and give this one out.
We talked some Atlantic Sun basketball are already on the show,
and I'm gonna go back to the a Sun Garth
Garth that he had another super chat. Garth put that
in again because for some reason it didn't get starred.
If someone's messing with my starred super Chat flag that
I put on here. I might have to have a
chat with the golf guys or whoever uses this show.
I said, star the super Chat and it didn't come
up start, so Garth put that back in. We may
have to may have to have a chat about that
off off camera here, Rob, I'll I'm gonna give my playout.
Then we'll go to Garth whatever he's looking at. I
played Eastern Kentucky on the money Line minus one fifteen.
We brought the conference up and I said, I said, oh, Queens,
they were kind of running away with the league, which
was which was true up until about two weeks ago.
Now it's now it is Austin p That looks like
they're kind of running away with the league. But I'm
gonna make listen, we we hit. I got you, Garth,
we'll go to that one next. I started myself. We hit.
We hit a play on Monday with Boston University. I
gave it out as my leg at a parlay and
I said, Rob, you know, this is a team that
I thought was gonna win this league, this this being
the Patriot League. I'm gonna tie this in in just
a second. I said this is a team that I
thought was gonna win this league. I can't believe they're
sitting down there essentially in last place, and it just
felt like the right time to sort of buy in
with that team, you know, thinking like it can't be
this bad. Andy, I'm just kidding. He's like, hey, we
watched watch those accusations right there on the on toward
the golf Guys, I'm just kidding. But anyway, we talked
about Boston University on Monday being in this spot where
it might be time to buy low on the Terriers.
We do that they go out get the win relatively
easily against Holy Cross. I feel like Eastern Kentucky is
in almost the same spot here if I go back now.
Admittedly I don't bet a ton of Atlantic Sun. I
kind of just dabble here and there when I get
a good angle or have a team that I like.
I don't really bet this league a ton, But I
do remember, very vividly believe we took them on the
show against Western Kentucky earlier this year. We were involved
in that game, and I remember talking multiple times in
November December that I thought Eastern Kentucky was easily the
best team in this league was easily going to win
this league, would definitely be at the top, and Rob boy,
has that not been the case at all? They are
seven in sixteen. Eastern Kentucky comes in having lost four straight.
They're now three and seven. The only team that they're
ahead of in conference play is Northern Alabama, who's two
and eight and essentially lost everyone from from last year.
So that to me is very very surprising. I kind
of look and I say, well, you know, they they
don't have the excuses that BU does. Really, who's who's
totally decimated by injury? You know that. I think Bu's
got a little bit excuse. I don't think Eastern Kentucky
has that excuse. I think their problem is they don't
play a ton of defense and they lose a lot
of close games. But here this just seems manageable for them. Historically,
they've they've done well against Florida Golf Coast. I believe
they've you know, recently, they've they've won all maybe four
meetings the last two years. You know, they're at home
in a price range where I feel like I should
be laying like five five and a half points. I
only have to play them that pick. We You and
I hit back to back winners fading Florida Golf Coast
about two weeks ago. I had Austin p and then
you came back the next day in a day that
got a game that got altered by weather, and you
played lipscumb and both of them were blowout wins. I
know Kashesney or whatever his name is for Florida Golf
Coast is back, which which certainly helps them. I mean
their dead, their doa without him. We found that out.
But I don't think he I mean the last he's
played what I think he came back over the weekend,
played twenty five minutes, nine points. Like he's certainly gonna
give Florida Golf Coast a chance in this game. But
they still have to go on the road and beat
a desperate team that's lost for straight and has to
want this one. So Rob, I played Eastern Kentucky on
the money line. I laid minus one eighteen. I think
it's still minus one fifteen. Minus won twenty most places,
So I'm gonna call it minus one twenty for the parlay.
I like the I like Eastern Kentucky in this one.
What do you think.
Speaker 2: I like it's the FG.
Speaker 3: See you side hasn't been and it is true the
big guy was out for a while and I'm thinking
back to those that game now that you mentioned it,
the Lipscomb it was a day game, I think right
there was bad weather and I had to.
Speaker 1: Play back day game moved up a full day for weather.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was. It was a miserable situation.
Speaker 3: And plus I had watched them the night before Golf
Coast and their offensive rhythm was just way off, and
it was way off the next day as well.
Speaker 2: Second game under his belt.
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe not, I'm not sure, but I think the
Eastern Kentucky side is the right side here.
Speaker 2: The team that I would equate to.
Speaker 3: When I go through these schedules and and just look
at is Austin P because they've been so good and
against Austin P for the Golf Coast was lousy.
Speaker 2: So I'm with you there. I don't have much on
that total.
Speaker 3: I'm trying to just do some quick numbers in my
head where total is concerned, to see if I can
help the chat anywhere that's concerned.
Speaker 2: But I don't know.
Speaker 3: That number seems to be in a really good spot,
so I would stick by what you're going with here,
e K. You bet now up to minus one, pretty
solid choice and we're at ten forty seven. So why
don't I go ahead again? Like you were saying, Adam
five six plays maybe probably?
Speaker 2: Yeah, paring down. I know Higgs was insane. He's got fifteen.
I could say the same.
Speaker 3: I mean, there's about ten or eleven things that I
like here, But for purposes of the show, it's gonna
go to the Big West. We've talked a lot of
Big West basketball this year. Big West has made personally
made me a lot of money, whether it be Northridge
or cal Poly or these offensive minded teams that just
continue to go over numbers, and those are the ones
that we've talked about the most. But I'm getting to
the point now where I think Santa Barbara might be
the best team in this league. Since Merril Little came
back six games back, they've won all six. This is
a somewhat of a semi revenge spot, I'll call it,
because they lost in his first game back to UC
Davis by seven. Now they have to go try and
exact revenge on the road. I usually prefer it when
it's at home, but I think they could even get
it on the road. I think the bigger picture here
for me is this team total of Santa Barbara, which
now is a really good offensive team with little in
the mix, looking at seventy four and a half, maybe
seventy five and a half in this game. They got
to eighty six first time around in regulation against UC Davis,
but they gave up ninety three.
Speaker 2: That was the problem.
Speaker 3: Eighty six Now on the road. Do I think that
they're ten points worse, eleven points worse in this game. No,
They're a better team now, and I think that getting
to seventy five here is not going to be an
issue against UC Davis, which has been a middle of
the road defense all season long. They're definitely not a
team that's adverse to giving up high seventies. So for me, Adam,
I'm just gonna play the team and I'm not going
to argue anybody off of side here. This thing has
been bet up from two to three and a half,
and I believe in the line movement here. I think
that's the right way. But I'm so much more comfortable
in these situations just counting on one side to do
their part of the equation. As far as scoring points
is concerned. That that's the way I'll go here. I
leave it open to the chat. You know, you guys
make your own bets all the time, so you know,
take what I'm saying and choose what you like. But
I do think the better one for me, the better
angle for me is you see Santa Barbara to score
over seventy four and a half just seems like a
low number, Like I can picture them final score here
being in that seventy seven to seventy eight range. So
that's going to be my bet for the parlay, my
leg of the parlay. You see Santa Barbara team total
over seventy four and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I had, so this one was definitely on This
is on my Sean Higgs list, which is the longer
list with like fifteen games on it that I'm trying
to pair it down right now, kicking myself because I
was really close to playing Santa Barbara minus two. I
guess what. The only thing that you know, just to
finish the breakdown of the game, what talked me off
of the side a little bit is I've also been
very pro uc Davis this year, and I believe Jim
less is a pretty good track record against the Santa
Barbara team. That being said, Rob, I thought about you
when I was looking at this game, where it's like
you weren't wrong, you were just early. Okay. I remember
you talking talking about Santa Barbara almost the first show
we did, and just just how good this team was
going to be this year. They had their struggles in
non conference play. You could argue they struggled a little
bit playing up in non conference play against better competition.
Then of course the mirror a little injury was definitely
significant for them. They didn't play as good without him.
Since Big West play has started, and like recently they
have been, they looked like everything you said they were
gonna be coming into this season, and it's hard to
believe that if they win this game, which I think
they that they're not doing it by more than three.
And this seems to have settled in at three. So
while I would have loved the two or the money line,
I could have gotten when that was at two. Although
I do think that's another reason I didn't fire, is
that the money line was already pretty juiced even when
it opened to They already had a pretty significantly juiced
money line, So I think that might have been a
juice to two that it opened at. But I could
not talk anyone off the Santa Barbara side either, And
I think you were totally right about them being the
class of this league, which is notable, Rob, because a
lot of other there was people saying Hawaii, there's people
saying you see Irvine, you see San Diego. All were
getting it getting love in that in that regard, and
I remember you saying, no, Santa Barbara's by far the
most talented. They're gonna be the best team in this league.
And I've come around to that. I'm agreeing with you.
So I hope you're and I hope you're right about
them scoring points tonight because we need to hit one
of these parlays and I think a three team I'm
gonna calculate the odds would get us back in the plus.
So yeah, I'm with you on the Santa Barbaracall right there, Rob,
I want to.
Speaker 2: Go taking back at him real quick.
Speaker 3: Let's credit I forget the name of your Big West
play with us. Yeah, Jordan Barbara as well that we
had him on, he was talking them up pretty well,
So we want to credit Jordan a little bit too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jordan Jordan is He's on Twitter all the time.
He's He's Jordan Alexander on Twitter, and he is. He
is well versed in Big West basketball. He lives out there,
follows those teams. He was all over UC San Diego
last year. I know he really liked Hawaii coming into
this year, and that's really sort of come true as well.
They've been right in the mix as well in this league. So,
uh yeah, shout out Jordan's He's very knowledgeable all things
college hoops, but Big West is definitely in his his wheelhouse.
I'm gonna go to guards game, but first I want
to say. Kevin says, how do you donate to the show?
I believe through YouTube. So I believe if you if
you watch the show on the YouTube channel, you have
the ability to uh subscribe, which is I think like
it puts you in this quote unquote superchat. I think again,
I wish I knew how any of this worked, but
I do think it gives you an opportunity to attach
a donation to the show that I believe we donate
to charity, per Johnny, so it goes to a good place.
I don't remember what one it went to. But like
I think, every month they take the YouTube donations and
make a donation on the company's behalf to a charity,
So that's where those donations go. But it also it
helps the show massive, so we very much appreciate it
and it makes sure that I see your comment. And
since we only get to six seven games on the show,
I'm obviously going to pick the comments that have the
donation attached first and then we'll hit the other comments
in the chat. Garth, I'll go back to him because
he's not the only one that was asking about this game.
Let's get some SoCon into the mix for Thursday, he says,
Mercer chat Nuga he likes Mercer minus four and a
half Rob. I. Coming into the year, I thought Mercer
was the dark horse in this league, but I think
the secret has been out for a while now that
this team is pretty good. Chat Uga was the team
that I think a lot of people thought would be
in position to win this league this year, but they
kind of had some injuries right off the bat and
they certainly haven't been that So Mercer chat Nuga, you
got Mercer four and a half point road favorite. While
I'm sort of making my calculations to figure out exactly
what I have the number at here. Talk to me
about this one side or total.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Mercer has been a covering machine inside this league,
and man, they've scored points. And you know, you guys
have watched the show long enough now since early November
to know that I like offensive minded teams that are
really really consistent. Because in the Totals Avenue, the Totals
lane that I'm in, I'm basically scratching off each and
every morning games that I think are going to go
under and just looking for those where I find an
edge to the over. But Mercers certainly has been an
absolute offensive machine. The team total is eight and two
to the over as well during this eight and two
game ATS covering streak. I can't disagree, Garth, I mean personally.
And here's another thing where I kick myself for not
being or maybe for pairing down on client lists folks
who subscribe pairing down and Mercer Totals always seem to
just hit that final chopping block right, don't add it
to the client card. And I kick myself because they've
just been going over over and over. I could see
it happening again tonight. This is the first meeting with
Chattanooga though, which is somewhat for me. It's almost like
a CounterPunch type thing. They're gonna play Chattanooga really quick
within the next two weeks, and maybe the second time
around you react to what you saw the first time around.
But if you're asking for a first time reaction here
on this game, I can't bet against Mercer the way
they've been covering numbers, and I do think that as
good as Chattanooga maybe defensively, that Mercer's gonna get theirs.
It's kind of, i'll correlated to what I was saying
in the NFL games where the like the Rams Seahawks game.
Let me just use that one as a non different sport,
direct correlation type comparison. Here, the Seattle defense gets a
huge amount of attention and a lot of people going
into that championship game thought, you know, the Seattle defense
Rams are gonna have trouble. But the Rams with Stafford
get theirs against anybody. It doesn't matter who you are defensively,
And I feel that way about Mercer right now, like
Mercer's gonna get.
Speaker 2: Theirs against anybody.
Speaker 3: So I may get I mean you somewhat open the
box to my client list for today. But I may
get to this mercer team total over today. Hopefully I'm
not too late to jump on the wagon, but I
think it's a good spot against it with a number
that's somewhat suppressed because of the defense that they're playing.
Not gonna argue off a mercer I would add to
a team total mercer over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean right, I'm pretty much right on the
number at four at four and a half. Four and
a half is basically what I make this game. But
there are some things that could push me into the
mercer into the mercer side. The first thing, I'd love
to know why Jordan Friesan only played seventeen minutes last game.
He is the leading scorer for this Chattanooga team, and
that's something I'll have to look at through throughout the day,
because you know, seventeen points doesn't look like he was
in foul trouble. That was a close game. If they
were to be missing him, that would be very, very concerning.
So that's something I'll have to look at. The Other
thing I'll point out is this is a team. You know,
Colin moholland was supposed to be the sort of like
the focal point at one point coming into the season,
big six to eleven center. He kind of got himself hurt.
Like he's been back, but he's really been a non factor.
He's been back for almost a month now. So sometimes
this happens rob where you have a team that gets
their quote unquote star back but they're still kind of
playing through injury and they never really like reach star status,
but they got the bump for them coming back. I
think maybe you saw you've seen that a little bit
with Chattanooga because you know, he yeah, he's okay, like
seven seven point you know, seven point three points per game,
two point eight boards, but he's really only out there
fourteen to fifteen minutes a game and he's not having
like the impact on the scoring that I think they
they would have expected him to have this year. So again,
Chattanooga just not the team that I think many thought
they would be coming into the season. I had shied
away from betting Chattanooga games for a while because I
felt like my number was too pro Chattanooga. It was
it was pushing me toward the Chatanooga NUGA side pretty
much every game. But here I I think it again,
I think that number is about right. But if Freesan
was out for some reason, I would I would be
kind of inclined to just fire on Mercer and I
think you'd I think it'd actually probably move. I think
you would see this come go more like six and
a half or six if he if he was out.
So that's that's something that I will look at in
regard to that game.
Speaker 2: Real quick at it.
Speaker 3: Without the rick confirmation I have here that Jordan Freestein
expect to play for UTC tonight against Mrsmen, Yeah, maybe.
Speaker 1: I would be real well, that's the thing I would be.
I think you'd already have seen some market movement if
there was any inkling that he would be out. I
just on a quick glance found it odd he only
played seventeen yits and that that's you know that Again,
It's just something I'll look at as the day goes on.
That's what I'll be looking at. That's why I've been
doing the rest of the day. Rob I've got two
plays locked in. I would be shocked if I don't
end up with two more, three more. One of them
is Eastern Kentucky money Line, and that is in the parlay.
Robino's leg of the parlay is going to be U
see Santa Barbara over four over seventy four and a half.
And I'm looking down because I'm trying to calculate this
with the correct juice as we're up against it here.
But I got it plus okay, so plus four ten,
so the parlay plus four to ten. As my light
dies right at the gun here now I'm over here
in the dark. Really got to do a better job
of charging these over here by the campfire. Now Rob
with the flashlight up in front of my face, we've
got Wilmington money line minus two to twenty Eastern Kentucky
money line four percent plate for me, that's minus one
twenty and then Rob Bino is going with U see
Santa Barbara over seventy four and a half plus four
ten on the odds. We'll see you guys in the morning.
Good luck today everyone. We'll see you for more. Full
Court Press Friday, ten am Eastern