WEBVTT 1 00:00:04.759 --> 00:00:07.599 With a round segle and from London and Gerard read 2 00:00:07.679 --> 00:00:08.279 from Berlin. 3 00:00:08.800 --> 00:00:10.720 This is redefining. 4 00:00:10.199 --> 00:00:14.199 Energy Today on really find Energy Job, we're going to 5 00:00:14.240 --> 00:00:19.839 talk about solar and especially an extraordinary conversation you had 6 00:00:20.120 --> 00:00:23.559 with Anaconde of PVK. So can you give us a 7 00:00:23.559 --> 00:00:24.559 bit of a context? 8 00:00:25.280 --> 00:00:28.000 Yeah, what sort of PV case is one of the 9 00:00:28.000 --> 00:00:31.079 world's leading software. 10 00:00:30.640 --> 00:00:33.200 Platforms for anyone who's designing. 11 00:00:32.920 --> 00:00:36.520 Large scale PV systems, and they have a podcast they 12 00:00:36.520 --> 00:00:39.640 invited me to come on, and really the whole teases 13 00:00:39.719 --> 00:00:43.039 for me is that going forward, the economic core of 14 00:00:43.079 --> 00:00:46.240 the future power system is solar and storage. And the 15 00:00:46.280 --> 00:00:48.280 reason for this is just because of cost simpler ast 16 00:00:48.280 --> 00:00:52.039 that it's just solar. We've never seen an electricity production 17 00:00:52.280 --> 00:00:55.719 technology as cheap as it. And also it can be 18 00:00:55.759 --> 00:00:59.079 put anywhere and add a bit of storage into that 19 00:00:59.560 --> 00:01:02.000 and you can do a huge amount. And actually i'd 20 00:01:02.000 --> 00:01:04.719 make a point as well, ple really you just can't 21 00:01:04.719 --> 00:01:06.959 block it because we're moving into a world of plug 22 00:01:06.959 --> 00:01:10.239 and play solar, and plug and play solar really means 23 00:01:10.359 --> 00:01:12.920 I put up my back garden, I plug it into 24 00:01:12.920 --> 00:01:16.439 a socket and put a battery beside it, and I've 25 00:01:16.439 --> 00:01:18.640 got a small power plant and guess what, My utility 26 00:01:18.680 --> 00:01:20.840 hasn't a clue on what's going on, My grid operator 27 00:01:20.879 --> 00:01:21.840 hasn't a clue what's going on. 28 00:01:22.480 --> 00:01:24.000 That's a no European perspective. 29 00:01:24.040 --> 00:01:26.920 But if I go to the global South, my god, 30 00:01:26.920 --> 00:01:29.599 how you're going to revolutionize the world by being able 31 00:01:29.640 --> 00:01:31.239 to put these systems in. 32 00:01:31.519 --> 00:01:32.640 It's incredibly exciting. 33 00:01:32.959 --> 00:01:37.879 So let's listen to your conversation with Annaconde. But first 34 00:01:37.920 --> 00:01:39.640 of all, from my partner, A. 35 00:01:39.680 --> 00:01:42.920 B Loco Energy is Europe's premier leaser of ten foot 36 00:01:42.959 --> 00:01:47.959 container mobile batteries built in Europe with COTL best LFP cells. 37 00:01:48.519 --> 00:01:53.840 A Bloco Energy serves fourteen European countries, including France, Germany 38 00:01:53.920 --> 00:01:57.120 and the UK. Our Blocko's batteries can be leased for 39 00:01:57.159 --> 00:02:00.400 any duration between six weeks and six years, and they 40 00:02:00.400 --> 00:02:04.200 are monitored by the Dutch award winning platform school a 41 00:02:04.319 --> 00:02:07.640 block Over Energy. Make your life easier, make your business 42 00:02:07.640 --> 00:02:08.319 more flexible. 43 00:02:08.560 --> 00:02:11.599 Back to the show, Gerard, welcome to our show. 44 00:02:12.080 --> 00:02:14.240 My pleasure looking forward to You really do. 45 00:02:14.240 --> 00:02:16.400 Bring a very perspective and I'm very excited to dive 46 00:02:16.439 --> 00:02:19.120 into what energy transition looks like when you zoom out 47 00:02:19.159 --> 00:02:21.520 and connect the dots. You've been quite open about the 48 00:02:21.520 --> 00:02:24.000 fact that you were initially skeptical of solder. What were 49 00:02:24.000 --> 00:02:26.560 you skeptical about and what ultimately changed your mind. 50 00:02:26.680 --> 00:02:27.159 What I was. 51 00:02:27.080 --> 00:02:31.520 Skeptical about really was the ability to get costs down quickly. 52 00:02:31.759 --> 00:02:32.479 And where I was. 53 00:02:32.439 --> 00:02:34.960 Coming from this this is twenty years ago. We've actually 54 00:02:35.000 --> 00:02:38.080 had solar panels for over fifty years, but sort of 55 00:02:38.080 --> 00:02:41.479 nothing happened in the space and I just didn't really 56 00:02:41.520 --> 00:02:44.000 see a path. When I went to see a solar 57 00:02:44.039 --> 00:02:47.759 factory in Berlin twenty years ago, I really just didn't 58 00:02:47.800 --> 00:02:49.840 see the ability to be able to get the cost down. 59 00:02:50.000 --> 00:02:52.520 But I didn't understand what was going on. If I'd 60 00:02:52.560 --> 00:02:54.840 be really honest. What I saw was a group of 61 00:02:54.879 --> 00:02:59.280 people who were making modules and they were doing this 62 00:02:59.319 --> 00:03:01.479 by hand, and I just thought this is a joke. 63 00:03:01.680 --> 00:03:04.199 So that's where I was coming from. Now, I was 64 00:03:04.319 --> 00:03:07.800 thankfully able to listen to people who knew more than 65 00:03:07.840 --> 00:03:12.039 I did and convince me otherwise. And here we are 66 00:03:12.280 --> 00:03:16.159 twenty years later, and it really is the lowest cost form. 67 00:03:16.280 --> 00:03:19.120 I might even just save an electricity of energy out there. 68 00:03:19.400 --> 00:03:21.120 You're just not going to get anything lower cost. 69 00:03:21.400 --> 00:03:23.800 Yeah, that's interesting and Honestly, I think it sounds like 70 00:03:23.960 --> 00:03:26.479 that evolution sort of mirrors what we've seen across finance 71 00:03:26.520 --> 00:03:29.680 more Brady, there's early doubt that is followed by a 72 00:03:29.759 --> 00:03:32.039 rapid reassessment once the data becomes a little bit more 73 00:03:32.080 --> 00:03:33.039 impossible to ignore. 74 00:03:33.360 --> 00:03:34.919 Yeah, and I go back, and if you look at 75 00:03:34.919 --> 00:03:37.639 the history of SOLO, we talk about a solar coaster, 76 00:03:38.000 --> 00:03:41.280 as in a roller coaster. It's up, down, up, down 77 00:03:41.599 --> 00:03:44.199 a scene. I don't have any updown cycle to seen 78 00:03:44.240 --> 00:03:46.560 at this point down, but maybe this is every three 79 00:03:46.680 --> 00:03:50.719 or four years you have another upcycle or another down cycle. Now, 80 00:03:50.759 --> 00:03:53.159 the good news today is SOLDO is in a much 81 00:03:53.240 --> 00:03:56.840 more sustainable position than it's ever been because it's costs 82 00:03:56.879 --> 00:04:00.199 us solow And also what's increasingly happening is you we 83 00:04:00.240 --> 00:04:04.840 do have facilitating technologies alongside it. For me, the facilitating 84 00:04:04.840 --> 00:04:09.439 technologies with batteries, power electronics, stuff like this that just 85 00:04:09.680 --> 00:04:12.919 make it much easier to integrate solar into a wider system. 86 00:04:13.159 --> 00:04:15.080 So that's sort of why it's in a much better 87 00:04:15.199 --> 00:04:16.360 position than it's ever been. 88 00:04:16.399 --> 00:04:18.920 Really, and at some point you also shifted from seeing 89 00:04:18.959 --> 00:04:21.680 solar as a niche solution to calling it the bedrock 90 00:04:21.759 --> 00:04:24.800 of the future energy system. What was the moment or 91 00:04:24.800 --> 00:04:26.920 realization that led you to that shift. 92 00:04:27.240 --> 00:04:30.480 Well, the bedrock really is what's your foundation of an 93 00:04:30.560 --> 00:04:33.000 energy system. If we really look globally today, the foundation 94 00:04:33.079 --> 00:04:34.279 of our energy system. 95 00:04:34.160 --> 00:04:34.959 Is really oil. 96 00:04:35.439 --> 00:04:37.959 And what actually happens is every time you have an 97 00:04:38.000 --> 00:04:41.439 industrial revolution, you do have a new form of energy 98 00:04:41.480 --> 00:04:44.439 that takes over. So you had the first industrial revolution, 99 00:04:44.839 --> 00:04:47.920 we really moved from wood to coal, okay, but then 100 00:04:48.040 --> 00:04:50.800 around alongside coal you had the steam engine, and then 101 00:04:51.000 --> 00:04:53.839 we had an internal combustion engine. Obviously it needed oil. 102 00:04:54.120 --> 00:04:57.279 And now what we've got is electrification and an AI 103 00:04:57.399 --> 00:04:59.680 I would say, at this point in time, digitalization, all 104 00:04:59.680 --> 00:05:02.560 our tech anologies need electricity, don't They don't need oil. 105 00:05:03.040 --> 00:05:05.079 So that's the big shift. But the other other shift 106 00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:09.279 is it's the lowest cost form of producing a usable 107 00:05:09.560 --> 00:05:12.040 form of energy. And that's the key difference because you 108 00:05:12.079 --> 00:05:14.680 can't stop that. Because the other thing that's really interesting 109 00:05:14.720 --> 00:05:17.600 for me about solar is the fact that you can 110 00:05:17.720 --> 00:05:19.879 use it anywhere. And of course you can say, oh 111 00:05:19.879 --> 00:05:21.279 my god, well we don't have a lot of sun 112 00:05:21.319 --> 00:05:24.600 in northern Europe. Yeah, so what talk to the plants 113 00:05:24.680 --> 00:05:26.800 in the back garden or your front garden about that. 114 00:05:26.920 --> 00:05:28.759 They go, listen, we're quite happy. 115 00:05:28.480 --> 00:05:31.000 We survived with this, you know, son Ony being here 116 00:05:31.480 --> 00:05:34.480 whatever it is eight hours a day in winter. So 117 00:05:34.720 --> 00:05:36.839 I don't take that argument because I just think what 118 00:05:36.920 --> 00:05:39.920 happens is you adapt. It's all about low cost and flexibility. 119 00:05:39.959 --> 00:05:40.959 That's what solar has. 120 00:05:41.279 --> 00:05:43.839 I agree. Yeah, it's funny how quickly that perception changed, 121 00:05:43.879 --> 00:05:46.399 and almost before many people even realized it was happening. 122 00:05:46.439 --> 00:05:49.720 The costs feel faster than almost anyone had forecasted deployment 123 00:05:49.800 --> 00:05:53.199 scale globally, and then suddenly solar wasn't just a technology story, 124 00:05:53.240 --> 00:05:54.240 it was a system story. 125 00:05:54.600 --> 00:05:56.759 Yeah, And I want to say I only think we're 126 00:05:56.759 --> 00:05:59.399 at the beginnings of that system story because if I 127 00:05:59.560 --> 00:06:01.240 take let's called the Western world. 128 00:06:01.079 --> 00:06:02.800 North America, Europe. 129 00:06:02.680 --> 00:06:05.480 What we've got there is you're replacing an old system 130 00:06:05.720 --> 00:06:08.720 that's more difficult. But okay, if I got a Pakistan, 131 00:06:09.079 --> 00:06:11.480 I'm not replacing an old system. What I'm doing is 132 00:06:11.560 --> 00:06:14.120 I'm bringing power to my people, and you can't stop 133 00:06:14.120 --> 00:06:16.079 it in that environment. Because people want to have a 134 00:06:16.079 --> 00:06:18.639 better life and a better life for your kids means 135 00:06:18.800 --> 00:06:22.560 you need to have electricity and you need to have internet. 136 00:06:22.720 --> 00:06:24.519 They are the basic things you want if you want 137 00:06:24.519 --> 00:06:25.000 your kids. 138 00:06:24.879 --> 00:06:27.240 To lip so, guess what you do. You've got to 139 00:06:27.279 --> 00:06:28.319 put solar on your rooftop. 140 00:06:28.519 --> 00:06:30.680 And even if you've only have electricity for eight hours 141 00:06:30.720 --> 00:06:33.279 a day, it's better than zero, right, And if you 142 00:06:33.319 --> 00:06:36.000 add batteries in there, it goes. So I think, really 143 00:06:36.040 --> 00:06:39.920 the big story of solars only starting, but it's a 144 00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:44.480 different story. It is creating an energy system where solar 145 00:06:44.560 --> 00:06:45.800 is the betrol I agree. 146 00:06:45.839 --> 00:06:48.920 And how has your background and investment, banking and capital 147 00:06:48.959 --> 00:06:51.879 markets shaped how you look at the energy tancision compared 148 00:06:51.879 --> 00:06:54.560 to say from a purely technical or policy lens. 149 00:06:54.800 --> 00:06:57.560 Okay, so if you're a scientist or an engineer, what 150 00:06:57.680 --> 00:07:02.120 you're interested in is physics, and you're interested in efficiencies, 151 00:07:02.480 --> 00:07:04.560 and you're looking at it from a first principle point 152 00:07:04.600 --> 00:07:07.879 of view as a finance person. But for me, it's economics. 153 00:07:07.920 --> 00:07:11.199 Does it make economic sense? Because if the physics is 154 00:07:11.240 --> 00:07:13.639 great and the economics makes no sense, it ain't going 155 00:07:13.680 --> 00:07:17.879 to scale. So I really look at the economics of stuff. 156 00:07:17.879 --> 00:07:20.319 That's what I really really focus on. And every single 157 00:07:20.360 --> 00:07:23.680 technology I always think, does this make economic sense? Or 158 00:07:23.759 --> 00:07:27.800 could this in the future make economic sense? And I 159 00:07:27.800 --> 00:07:30.040 think that's the key thing that you focus on. Just 160 00:07:30.120 --> 00:07:33.439 keep focus on the economics, economics, economics. So I give 161 00:07:33.439 --> 00:07:35.639 you a very practical example. If I take the case 162 00:07:35.680 --> 00:07:39.240 of hydrogen green hydrogen, it's really difficult for that to 163 00:07:39.319 --> 00:07:43.519 compete in a market with brown hydrogen, right, it's very difficult. 164 00:07:43.720 --> 00:07:46.399 Maybe it isn't it even extra impossible? And you sort 165 00:07:46.399 --> 00:07:49.319 of argue, Okay, do we really need to do that? 166 00:07:49.399 --> 00:07:51.879 Are people really willing to pay for that? They are 167 00:07:51.959 --> 00:07:55.160 questions that I ask, And that means that I'm constantly 168 00:07:55.199 --> 00:07:58.399 focusing on what's the best economic decision. That's what I'm 169 00:07:58.399 --> 00:08:00.639 trying to do in everything that I'm looking at. Don't 170 00:08:00.680 --> 00:08:02.720 necessarily get it right all the time, because again, you're 171 00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:05.000 looking at the future all the time. But I think 172 00:08:05.319 --> 00:08:07.319 a lot of people don't do that. What they do 173 00:08:07.360 --> 00:08:10.360 is they get carried away with a story and stories 174 00:08:10.560 --> 00:08:12.319 maybe how you get some capital. 175 00:08:11.920 --> 00:08:12.399 In the door. 176 00:08:12.480 --> 00:08:14.600 But stories are not how you create the future. You 177 00:08:14.680 --> 00:08:18.240 create the future by really bringing something at low cost 178 00:08:18.240 --> 00:08:18.800 to market. 179 00:08:18.959 --> 00:08:20.319 That's how you create the future. 180 00:08:20.680 --> 00:08:22.480 I really like that for I mean, because capital, in 181 00:08:22.519 --> 00:08:25.240 the end has a way of revealing the truth. Money 182 00:08:25.240 --> 00:08:28.439 moves towards what scales and away from what doesn't. And 183 00:08:28.480 --> 00:08:31.279 you've mentioned solar and batteries before, so when you talk 184 00:08:31.319 --> 00:08:34.559 about this energy revolution, now we really talk about solar alone. 185 00:08:34.679 --> 00:08:37.840 It's really solid plus batteries. Why is this parents critical 186 00:08:37.919 --> 00:08:38.399 these days? 187 00:08:39.080 --> 00:08:41.720 So, first and foremost, storage has always been a critical 188 00:08:41.720 --> 00:08:45.000 part of our energy system, and we just let's start 189 00:08:45.039 --> 00:08:47.799 with the basics of how we live our life every day. 190 00:08:48.120 --> 00:08:51.879 The most important storage device I have is probably my fridge. Okay, 191 00:08:51.960 --> 00:08:54.480 that's what I'm doing and keeping my food there, of which. 192 00:08:54.320 --> 00:08:55.360 I use every day. 193 00:08:55.639 --> 00:08:58.200 But if you go beyond that, in the fossil fuel world, 194 00:08:58.240 --> 00:09:00.840 we've got massive amounts of story that we've built up 195 00:09:00.840 --> 00:09:03.159 over the last hundred years. Right, We've got oil tanks, 196 00:09:03.200 --> 00:09:07.480 we've got gas tanks, we've got oil tankers that transport that. 197 00:09:07.840 --> 00:09:10.799 So we've got massive capability to do so. So storage 198 00:09:10.840 --> 00:09:12.679 is to all of us as clear. Storage is a 199 00:09:12.679 --> 00:09:15.519 clear part of the energy system. Electricity is slightly different. 200 00:09:15.720 --> 00:09:18.480 There's not a huge amount of electricity storage out there 201 00:09:18.480 --> 00:09:19.840 because what you have to do is you have to 202 00:09:19.879 --> 00:09:24.000 take that electricity and convert it into another form of energy. 203 00:09:24.039 --> 00:09:25.080 So you know, you push it up. 204 00:09:25.120 --> 00:09:28.279 Water and bring it back down as pumped hydro or something, 205 00:09:28.480 --> 00:09:31.000 and we realize in the past probably easier just to 206 00:09:31.039 --> 00:09:33.879 rely on the fossil fuel storage. In other words, what 207 00:09:33.919 --> 00:09:36.519 you do is when you need more electricity, you take 208 00:09:36.559 --> 00:09:38.919 that coal in the bunker and you burn more of it. 209 00:09:39.120 --> 00:09:41.440 That's sort of what we've been doing. But in a 210 00:09:41.519 --> 00:09:46.320 world of renewables, where renewables is so low cost and 211 00:09:46.360 --> 00:09:49.879 where you know, the reality is because it makes so 212 00:09:50.000 --> 00:09:52.120 much economic sense for people to put more and more 213 00:09:52.360 --> 00:09:54.600 solar in the system, whether it be in the home 214 00:09:55.039 --> 00:09:57.840 or whatever it is, you then have periods of excess. 215 00:09:57.919 --> 00:10:01.320 Then you go, what's the most efficient and cost effective 216 00:10:01.360 --> 00:10:04.080 way to do it. Let's use a battery, and that's 217 00:10:04.200 --> 00:10:06.200 that's the reality of it. You know, you could put 218 00:10:06.200 --> 00:10:07.759 it up the wall, you could put it up a mountain, 219 00:10:07.840 --> 00:10:09.960 or you could do something like that, but it's more 220 00:10:10.000 --> 00:10:13.399 expensive and you've got inefficiencies in terms of the efficiency. 221 00:10:13.440 --> 00:10:15.639 The losses that you have are higher, and. 222 00:10:15.600 --> 00:10:18.320 In particularly in the case of lithium ion lithie iron is. 223 00:10:19.039 --> 00:10:21.480 I do use the story that nothing happened in batteries 224 00:10:21.519 --> 00:10:24.919 between probably nineteen hundred in about twenty ten, and then 225 00:10:24.960 --> 00:10:27.720 we have litiumine and obviously LiTi mine is in every 226 00:10:27.759 --> 00:10:29.960 device that we have as a lithium ion battery in it, 227 00:10:30.039 --> 00:10:30.879 and they're getting. 228 00:10:30.600 --> 00:10:31.240 Better and better. 229 00:10:31.360 --> 00:10:34.600 And also then we've also got new forms of batteries 230 00:10:34.799 --> 00:10:37.879 which are lower cost, higher performance coming our way as well, 231 00:10:38.039 --> 00:10:41.759 so that battery revolution continues. But the thing that really 232 00:10:41.919 --> 00:10:45.399 lends itself to batteries with solar is the fact that 233 00:10:45.679 --> 00:10:49.720 every day the sun goes up and the sun goes down, 234 00:10:50.080 --> 00:10:53.639 and when it's down, that means you always have potential 235 00:10:53.759 --> 00:10:57.159 to actually use any excess that you've saved to the 236 00:10:57.279 --> 00:10:59.000 time when the sun is not there, so you can 237 00:10:59.000 --> 00:11:01.080 do this one. You can bank on this every day. 238 00:11:01.279 --> 00:11:05.080 Let me contrast that with say wind or hydro wind. 239 00:11:05.440 --> 00:11:07.759 You have no idea what's going to happen, because what 240 00:11:07.960 --> 00:11:12.000 often happens is wind comes comes in fronts, and these 241 00:11:12.000 --> 00:11:14.240 fronts could be richy for two or three days. So 242 00:11:14.279 --> 00:11:16.360 that means is I go and go, hey, I'm going 243 00:11:16.399 --> 00:11:18.200 to take this storage, I'm going to save it for night. 244 00:11:18.519 --> 00:11:21.279 It don't work wind because you might have to save it. 245 00:11:21.240 --> 00:11:23.559 For three days. Now, that's okay, you save it for 246 00:11:23.600 --> 00:11:26.720 three days, but with solar, it's much easier. You save 247 00:11:26.759 --> 00:11:29.799 it until it's dark. The exact same thing you would 248 00:11:29.840 --> 00:11:32.679 also say with hydro as well, you use hydro as well, 249 00:11:32.720 --> 00:11:34.360 the same thing you say again, going to save it. 250 00:11:34.720 --> 00:11:37.000 You could do that, but there are better ways of 251 00:11:37.080 --> 00:11:38.919 doing it, what I would say. So that's why I 252 00:11:38.919 --> 00:11:42.240 say it really does lend itself to solar as opposed 253 00:11:42.279 --> 00:11:43.360 to other technologies. 254 00:11:43.399 --> 00:11:44.200 That's what I would say. 255 00:11:44.720 --> 00:11:47.080 Yeah, And I think this distinction matters a lot, especially 256 00:11:47.120 --> 00:11:49.840 when people still talk about these technologies as if there 257 00:11:49.840 --> 00:11:52.679 are optional add ons. Really, with solar without storage you 258 00:11:52.679 --> 00:11:55.000 have generation, but solar with batters you do have like 259 00:11:55.000 --> 00:11:59.320 a real infrastructure exactly exactly. Now, you often emphasize the 260 00:11:59.360 --> 00:12:02.480 need for us stemic view of indergy transition. Can you 261 00:12:02.559 --> 00:12:05.120 unpack what that really means and why focusing on one 262 00:12:05.120 --> 00:12:07.039 technology in isolation can be misleading? 263 00:12:07.519 --> 00:12:10.240 Yes, what you have is don't forget again. I'm going 264 00:12:10.279 --> 00:12:13.559 to come back to the Western world, because the Western world, 265 00:12:13.559 --> 00:12:16.519 what we've got is a whole pile of technologies that 266 00:12:16.519 --> 00:12:18.600 are used out there in the system. So you've got 267 00:12:18.600 --> 00:12:22.440 fossil fuels, we already have electricity, and I'm sort of saying, well, 268 00:12:22.480 --> 00:12:25.720 the future is based on solar. Then the question is 269 00:12:25.879 --> 00:12:27.519 how do you get there? And should you get there? 270 00:12:27.559 --> 00:12:30.360 And doesn't make economic sense. And what we end up 271 00:12:30.399 --> 00:12:34.559 doing is we make changes all across this system and 272 00:12:34.600 --> 00:12:37.679 we just make it more and more complex. And what 273 00:12:37.720 --> 00:12:42.240 this mean is we end up with unforeseen consequences, and 274 00:12:42.279 --> 00:12:45.799 even when we do see the consequences, we don't act. 275 00:12:46.039 --> 00:12:48.559 So I give you a very simple example, the Spanish 276 00:12:48.639 --> 00:12:52.039 blackout that took place last year. Every grid operator in 277 00:12:52.080 --> 00:12:55.799 Europe has been talking about really behind the scenes that 278 00:12:55.879 --> 00:12:58.559 we would have this type of event. Some have been 279 00:12:58.600 --> 00:13:02.240 preparing for it and some haven't. The Spanish have not been. 280 00:13:02.480 --> 00:13:03.799 Let's be really clear on that. 281 00:13:03.960 --> 00:13:04.240 Now. 282 00:13:04.440 --> 00:13:06.919 That is a criticism of the Spanish great operator and 283 00:13:06.960 --> 00:13:10.440 the regulator. But the point is we know what's going on. 284 00:13:10.519 --> 00:13:11.879 And I can go on and on and give you 285 00:13:11.879 --> 00:13:14.759 a really simple example. I'm in Ireland today and if 286 00:13:14.799 --> 00:13:18.120 I go back twelve months ago, Ireland had a storm 287 00:13:18.159 --> 00:13:21.080 that came in and a large power of West Ireland 288 00:13:21.120 --> 00:13:23.480 lost power for whatever it was a day and a half. 289 00:13:23.600 --> 00:13:26.000 Some people lost it for much more than that, and 290 00:13:26.039 --> 00:13:28.799 it's like shock horror. Ireland had a storm. I go 291 00:13:29.399 --> 00:13:32.240 We've always had storms number one and number two. All 292 00:13:32.240 --> 00:13:35.799 the climate models have been saying for fifteen years that 293 00:13:35.840 --> 00:13:38.159 the storms in Ireland would get more severe, so it 294 00:13:38.200 --> 00:13:40.960 didn't prepare. That's what I'm talking about when I'm talking 295 00:13:40.960 --> 00:13:44.639 about even where there were consequences that we could foresee, 296 00:13:44.879 --> 00:13:47.919 the powers that we haven't made the changes that need 297 00:13:48.000 --> 00:13:51.799 to be made, then we talk about unforeseen conc foreseeen 298 00:13:51.919 --> 00:13:53.759 is something you just could predict. So give you a 299 00:13:53.840 --> 00:13:56.279 very very practical example of that. We had a whole 300 00:13:56.320 --> 00:13:59.679 series of nuclear power plants in France last summer that 301 00:13:59.759 --> 00:14:03.919 had to close because of jellyfish. Now you go, what 302 00:14:03.960 --> 00:14:06.879 the hell are jellyfish doing? What jellyfish were doing was 303 00:14:06.919 --> 00:14:12.120 they were congregating in and around the water inlets for 304 00:14:12.240 --> 00:14:15.480 cooling the plants. Okay, now why am I saying that? Well, 305 00:14:15.519 --> 00:14:17.480 the reason jellyfish are there is because the waters are 306 00:14:17.480 --> 00:14:22.519 getting warmer. And again, unforeseen something. There's so many unforeseen consequences. 307 00:14:22.559 --> 00:14:24.840 So the only way you can really think about this is, 308 00:14:25.200 --> 00:14:27.039 I think, is to really think of this at a 309 00:14:27.200 --> 00:14:30.759 very very systematic level. And the systematic level is where 310 00:14:30.759 --> 00:14:33.240 do we want to go? Is the first question? Where 311 00:14:33.240 --> 00:14:35.240 do we want to go? And then the question is 312 00:14:35.399 --> 00:14:38.559 what's the best way to get there? From both an 313 00:14:38.559 --> 00:14:41.120 economic and a society a point of view? And I 314 00:14:41.159 --> 00:14:44.279 don't see this anywhere in the world. What you've got 315 00:14:44.360 --> 00:14:48.039 is regulators saying one thing, government's saying another, and this, 316 00:14:48.159 --> 00:14:50.919 you know, and it's being pulled in every different direction. 317 00:14:51.559 --> 00:14:53.840 And as I said, it just gets more and more complex. 318 00:14:54.159 --> 00:14:58.120 And this is not helpful to producing a low cost 319 00:14:58.600 --> 00:15:02.360 energy system is suitable for our future. That's where I 320 00:15:02.440 --> 00:15:02.759 come from. 321 00:15:02.919 --> 00:15:05.480 Yeah, So that's really a helpful way of thinking about it, 322 00:15:05.600 --> 00:15:08.320 because we're often debating about pieces of the puzzle without 323 00:15:08.320 --> 00:15:10.720 really stepping back to look at the whole picture. And 324 00:15:10.799 --> 00:15:13.120 we could really say that we don't have a technology problem, 325 00:15:13.159 --> 00:15:15.639 what we have is a coordination problem exactly. 326 00:15:15.879 --> 00:15:18.039 That's a good way I put the coordination problem. I 327 00:15:18.080 --> 00:15:20.759 know it's difficult to coordinate all the different parties, but 328 00:15:20.799 --> 00:15:23.159 i'd also call, like, let let's take in the case 329 00:15:23.159 --> 00:15:26.000 of Europe, if you really want to go and move forward. 330 00:15:26.159 --> 00:15:28.159 So I think what you have to sort of put 331 00:15:28.200 --> 00:15:31.840 together is I call it a Future Energies Commission that 332 00:15:32.000 --> 00:15:35.279 really has keith and that can actually go and put 333 00:15:35.320 --> 00:15:38.559 in that can make change happen across you. Now that's 334 00:15:38.559 --> 00:15:41.159 maybe a pipe dream for me. But I'm going back 335 00:15:41.200 --> 00:15:43.679 to what I briefly said earlier. Around was we're in 336 00:15:43.720 --> 00:15:46.639 an industrial revolution, and this is probably the biggest industrial 337 00:15:46.639 --> 00:15:50.159 revolution the history of mankind, and that industrial levelation is 338 00:15:50.240 --> 00:15:54.399 AI and electricity. And so you could do two things. 339 00:15:54.480 --> 00:15:56.960 You can become a luddite and you can block all 340 00:15:57.000 --> 00:15:58.879 of this, but good luck to you on that, because 341 00:15:58.919 --> 00:16:01.240 what you're doing is you're putting all of us in 342 00:16:01.279 --> 00:16:06.360 the future into a very economically weak situation. So then 343 00:16:06.440 --> 00:16:08.600 the question is what to do. That's where I'm coming from, 344 00:16:08.600 --> 00:16:10.360 and I'm thinking about this, and by the way, I 345 00:16:10.440 --> 00:16:13.399 spend an awful lot of my time really thinking about 346 00:16:13.600 --> 00:16:15.720 AI and what it does and what it doesn't do, 347 00:16:15.840 --> 00:16:19.919 because it's the speed of change in that area is 348 00:16:20.200 --> 00:16:23.600 just so quick and it's not going to slow down. 349 00:16:24.080 --> 00:16:26.639 So that's where I'm coming from all this. This industrial 350 00:16:26.679 --> 00:16:30.000 revolution is quicker than any industrial revolution we've ever seen. 351 00:16:30.200 --> 00:16:34.279 The first steam coal revolution took one hundred and fifty years. 352 00:16:34.519 --> 00:16:38.799 The automobile revolution maybe it took fifty years. This is 353 00:16:38.799 --> 00:16:40.519 not going to take fifty years. This is a ten 354 00:16:40.559 --> 00:16:41.360 year revolution. 355 00:16:42.039 --> 00:16:44.279 But somehow, for me, the irony is striking because we 356 00:16:44.360 --> 00:16:48.600 have cleaner, cheaper technologies available, but then crisis planning still 357 00:16:48.639 --> 00:16:50.919 sort of default. The twentieth century. Now, you mentioned the 358 00:16:50.960 --> 00:16:54.600 power outage in Spain. I know Berlin hats martages a 359 00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:58.080 couple of weeks ago. Boulder, Colorado also had some. So 360 00:16:58.279 --> 00:17:00.840 what do these moments really tell us about resilience. 361 00:17:01.000 --> 00:17:03.320 I'm going to just say they're warning signs to all 362 00:17:03.320 --> 00:17:07.559 of us, okay, and we have to heed these warnings. So, 363 00:17:07.599 --> 00:17:10.480 and I give a very practical example of this. There 364 00:17:10.519 --> 00:17:14.920 have been attacks, physical attacks on transformers in the United States. 365 00:17:15.079 --> 00:17:17.960 And what do the United States do. All the states get. 366 00:17:17.839 --> 00:17:21.960 Together, all the energy regulators, all the utilities, and they say, okay, 367 00:17:22.319 --> 00:17:24.640 we need to support each other if there's an attack 368 00:17:24.799 --> 00:17:28.079 on one of these pieces of critical infrastructure. That means 369 00:17:28.119 --> 00:17:32.519 they have strategies in place in case there's an attack 370 00:17:32.599 --> 00:17:35.359 on one of these piece of critical infrastructure. There's nothing 371 00:17:35.440 --> 00:17:37.720 like that in place in Europe. Okay, And I'm going 372 00:17:37.759 --> 00:17:43.680 to say totally unacceptable. Totally unacceptable, because the issue is 373 00:17:43.759 --> 00:17:47.720 the risks if something goes wrong are just so big 374 00:17:47.880 --> 00:17:51.480 because society will, as we know it, in a major 375 00:17:51.519 --> 00:17:54.799 city collapse if you don't have power for three days. 376 00:17:55.079 --> 00:17:57.440 That's the reality of the world we live in. So 377 00:17:57.599 --> 00:17:59.799 accept this, don't run away from it, except for it, 378 00:18:00.279 --> 00:18:02.160 and then you have to go and change your approach 379 00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:04.920 to how you run that system, because then you go 380 00:18:05.000 --> 00:18:08.279 and say, Okay, what are the risks in this system? 381 00:18:08.519 --> 00:18:09.599 What are the major ones? 382 00:18:09.839 --> 00:18:10.720 And how do. 383 00:18:10.839 --> 00:18:14.440 I deal with those risks? If a horrendous event takes place, 384 00:18:14.720 --> 00:18:17.119 what do I do? How do I react? And how 385 00:18:17.119 --> 00:18:20.160 do I get the system back running as quickly as possible? 386 00:18:20.400 --> 00:18:21.480 Okay? That's it. 387 00:18:21.799 --> 00:18:24.400 Have these open conversations, And by the way, that's also 388 00:18:24.559 --> 00:18:29.480 systemic thinking, because that requires people to be really open 389 00:18:29.519 --> 00:18:33.880 and honest about this and rather than hiding the threads 390 00:18:33.920 --> 00:18:36.400 and the weaknesses of the system as it is. 391 00:18:36.480 --> 00:18:37.920 You know, That's where I'm coming from. 392 00:18:38.240 --> 00:18:40.200 So the last thing I'd say if I said to 393 00:18:40.200 --> 00:18:43.839 you today I was running my businesses with faxes, you 394 00:18:43.880 --> 00:18:46.079 would break out laugh and you go, what are you 395 00:18:46.200 --> 00:18:48.519 talking about? And I go, Okay, I can tell you 396 00:18:48.599 --> 00:18:51.400 the names and many grid operators that are still using taxes, 397 00:18:51.799 --> 00:18:54.039 and they'll turn around and they'll say it's more secure. 398 00:18:54.359 --> 00:18:55.599 Yeah a bit. 399 00:18:55.799 --> 00:18:57.640 So isn't it for the world that we're in a 400 00:18:57.680 --> 00:19:00.400 present where you know, electricity is moving base at the 401 00:19:00.400 --> 00:19:03.000