Speaker 1: I love our fridays here at the Westgate, Las Vegas.
No better place to be get ready for college football
Championship weekend UNLV Boise State. Tonight we'll get into that
NFL Week fourteen. Glorious time here and John Murray back
with us here on a Friday as we go behind
the counter with him, brought to you by our great
friends at wagertalk dot com for all of your betty needs.
Get ready for the weekend nb A Major League Baseball
is not happening.
Speaker 2: Now. Know why I said that.
Speaker 1: I just want to go down the list of everything
that you guys cover, how you guys doing, like some
you know, Australian cricket right now?
Speaker 3: Something we actually have a guy that does cricket. There
there is a guy.
Speaker 2: Is it Australian cricket season.
Speaker 4: I have no idea there's some cricket because say he
had a package up this week for cricket.
Speaker 2: Yes, oh there you go.
Speaker 4: I have never bet a cricket day, nor will I
ever bet a cricket.
Speaker 2: John Murray in the house. What's going on? Brother?
Speaker 5: It's a busy weekend, man, Yeah, great week got UFC
three twenty three true this morning was the World Cup draw.
They announced all the World Cup matches for next song. Correct,
pretty big deal. College football tonight, UNLV game got the
college games tomorrow. Does the Big Ten Championship game matter?
Speaker 6: What's the difference in theory?
Speaker 1: It doesn't, But you know, I guess for for styling points.
Speaker 2: We were just talking about this.
Speaker 1: If one of these teams gets blown out, then the
seeding could definitely come into play.
Speaker 6: Could they drop out of the top four.
Speaker 1: It depends on how unfolds and what happens. Yeah, that's
hard to believe, you know.
Speaker 5: And if you look back at last year, the one seed,
I don't know why I'm doing air quotes.
Speaker 6: They were the one seed. They didn't see me. Yeah,
but the one seed was Oregon. Correct, and they got
the worst draw of anybody.
Speaker 2: They did give me a four.
Speaker 6: Seed if I got to play Ohio State the first game.
Speaker 2: Look what happened to the four seat?
Speaker 1: Look what happened in Ohio State losing to Michigan last
year is a twenty point favorite number eight seat because
we were force fed Poise State in Arizona State.
Speaker 6: Last year was a ke Last year was a disaster.
Speaker 5: The committee to a horrible job and I would say
that Oregon got completely screwed. I mean they went thirteen
and oh, they won the Big Ten. They don't get
a home game, they don't get any revenue from that.
They get their first game against Ohio State, who we
all knew was the best team. I think we knew
that all season. Mark, I think we had them number
one in the power ratings all the year. Last season,
it wasn't like it was some shock when they beat
Oregon in the Rose.
Speaker 6: Well, they were favored to do it. The way they
did it was surprising.
Speaker 5: I'm just saying, you don't necessarily know you'd rather be
the one seed of the four seed.
Speaker 6: I got to see that draw.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's flawed. It was severely flawed last year.
Speaker 1: They tried to make some corrections, but we're still going
to get you know, some very good teams that are
going to get left out of this thing because of
the obligations. I'd like to say, for you know, the
eleven spot in the twelve spot, so and again, you know,
I don't want to hear people thinking that whoever comes
in eleven and twelve has a legitimate shot to win
the national championship. I mean, SMU was the number eleven
last year they got blasted. We knew Boys State and ASU.
We're not, you know, getting force fed up to the top.
There are certain teams, you know that just can't compete,
all right, and it's a great thing. You want to
talk about North Texas and two Late and this and that,
but I'm sorry, I don't want to see them in
the college football playoff?
Speaker 5: Have you heard any I can't recall hearing worse arguments
about anything in sports than the arguments I've heard around
the college ball playoff last couple of weeks, you know,
because somebody said something like, blah blah blah, Notre Dame
would be favored against all these teams they need to
be in, and somebody else is like, well that doesn't matter.
That's subjective. It's like, well, of course it's subjective. That's
why there's a committee of people to pick the teams.
Speaker 6: What kind of argument is that? Kind of argument is
that are we picking the best teams or not? Well,
obviously not, obviously not. Apparently we're not.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what you do, what you are doing, John, basically
is picking the ten best teams.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what you're ten.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, actually it's not the ten best teams, the
ten most deserving teams by these metrics, because if it
was the ten best teams, Notre Dame not even be
a question of course they'd be in.
Speaker 6: So I don't know how they're coming up with this field.
Oh it's some of the conversations I've heard around it
are just like, what are you talking about? What are
you talking about?
Speaker 1: So let's talk about these games. Focus in on tomorrow's games.
You've got SEC Big twelve, Big ten, ACC is kind
of at the bottom there. But which games are you
seeing the most action and actually line movement.
Speaker 5: I'd say the Big ten game. There's been a ton
of money in Indiana. Seems like a lot of wise
guys like Indiana. A lot of the public likes Indiana,
and I can I get it because I don't know
how important the game is to Ohio State. I mean,
at the end of the day, I don't think it's
going to really make any difference for Ohio State. I mean,
I'm sure both teams would like to be the one seed,
but does it really as long as you stay in
that top four, does it really matter?
Speaker 6: I would argue it does not.
Speaker 5: So I don't know how motivated, they'll be. There's a
lot of money on Virginia. And you know, I'm not
I'm not saying I believe in stuff like this, but
obviously the ACC wants Virginia to win tomorrow because if
the if Virginia does not win tomorrow, the conference is
likely shut out of the playoffs. I think that they
probably will be and should be if Virginia loses. So
of course the Conference is gonna want Virginia to win.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 5: And then there's a lot of a lot of money
on James Madison tonight.
Speaker 6: James Madison's a real sharp play tonight.
Speaker 5: You've seen that. A lot of money on Boise too,
A lot of money on Boise. That numbers moved a
lot in the last seventy two hours.
Speaker 4: I get to ask you, though, how did you guys
get to that opener on the Boise game? Because I
thought when I saw the lines, that is the one
game that the line stuck out to me that I
was like, why is this line so low?
Speaker 3: Boise demolished them earlier in.
Speaker 6: The season, don't they always demolished them?
Speaker 4: But and that's the thing, because the physicality of Boise
always ran over UNLV. Now I will say the last
three games, UNLV is played a lot better defensively. But
were any of those teams physical teams like Boise.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a fair question.
Speaker 5: I think UNLV's playing to a higher and higher number
as the season's gone on.
Speaker 6: But you know, to Marco's point, obviously the.
Speaker 5: Market thought we opened it too short, and they rejected
the opener, and it's been one way money on Boise
really all week.
Speaker 2: Let me try to answer that for you.
Speaker 1: I understand where the numbers at because there's two major
factors here and well, actually a third factor on the
UNLV side from a Boise State side. All Right, they
had some inexcusable losses. All right, you go back to
their last home game and they got beat thirty to
seven to at Fresno State.
Speaker 2: I mean that was humiliating on your home field. And
then you go.
Speaker 1: To San Diego State, a team that you're much better than,
and you lose seventeen to seven. Boise State scored fourteen
points in their two most important games.
Speaker 2: And they lost them both.
Speaker 1: Now, also the factor is you got Maddox mattson Is
coming back as they're starting quarter However, Okay, he lit
up UNLV and through for nearly four hundred yards when
they beat them with fifty six to thirty one going
back in October. But he hasn't played since, and conventional,
I guess wisdom out there or whatever you want to say,
is the reports are that he's really not ready to play,
but they don't want to have a championship game without him,
so he's going to be maybe fifty or sixty percent
at best. So I think a lot of people are
buying in, Hey, this starting quarterback is back, all right,
But that line seemed kind of low because Boise State
has not been very good. You can make the argument
with the last four weeks of the season, UNLV has
been better than Boise State. So but then on the
UNLV side, it's like, okay, now we're starting to see
some money. UNLV lost to New Mexico out of Legion
Stadium and they couldn't stop New Mexico and that was
a troublesome loss in my opinion for that.
Speaker 2: They came back be hawhy, but why he's not that great?
And then of course you blast un R.
Speaker 1: So we don't know how good really either one of
these teams are because they're both flawed, especially Boise.
Speaker 2: Boise is not the.
Speaker 1: Same Bois team and they don't have an Ashton Genty
running the football.
Speaker 6: I wish all the games weren't at the same time.
Speaker 5: You guys talked about that at all. No, it's bad
for our business tonight. All the games are like four,
four thirty five.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I think it would be much better for business if
the UNLV game had been like six thirty or seven.
But then I guess it would have been like freezing
cold and Boise.
Speaker 2: You know it's it's forty four for the game tonight, yea,
and no wind. Huh, so that should be good.
Speaker 6: It doesn't sound right?
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so football weather Man, who do you guys
like in this game? Anyway?
Speaker 6: Just the way it's being bad, it's hard not to
like Boise.
Speaker 5: I'll be rooting for UNLV because I'd like ce UNOV
do well and the book's gonna need them.
Speaker 4: But I leaned to UNLV, but I didn't get to
the window on it. Yeah, for the shows that I did,
I leaned to the unob.
Speaker 2: What about the SEC game.
Speaker 1: There's another game that you know, you figure even Georgia
if they lose, they're firmly in. However, it's a big
revenge game for Georgia. Alabama actually needs the game, you know,
more because of those two losses that they have, and
so what are you seeing? We seeing Georgia only two
and a half point favorite.
Speaker 5: It's kind of funny that if if Alabama lost and
got dropped out, the other SEC teams that aren't playing
tomorrow would be in the system.
Speaker 6: Really is screwy?
Speaker 2: Is it could conceive it?
Speaker 5: I know that it could, especially if Georgia wins in
a route right, We've seen some money on Georgia. I
think Georgia is a team that they appear to be
peaking at the right time. I think they're a lot
better now than they were maybe in the middle part
of the season. The last time these two teams played,
win Alabama won in Athens, which is.
Speaker 6: A great win for Alabama. But Georgia is peaking. And
we talked.
Speaker 5: Last time we talked, I think we talked about how
we think Notre Dame's probably number two in the power
of the pecking order, behind Ohio State obviously.
Speaker 6: But Georgie is dangerous.
Speaker 5: Georgia is dangerous if they if they start clicking on
on defense, they could beat anybody because They're very explosive
on offense. Seen some money coming on them tomorrow.
Speaker 4: That's the one game that I can't make my mind
up on is the Georgia Alabama game. I want to
go to the Georgia side, but I just I can't
get can't. I can't get myself to walk to the window.
Speaker 5: Does the winner get to buy? Is that like basically
a done deal? I mean, yeah, yeah, I would.
Speaker 3: They win, you win the SEC you're getting rewards.
Speaker 5: So if Alabama could theoretically have a first round buy
with a win or be out of it with a loss.
Speaker 1: I don't know if they would actually have a buy
because they still have those two losses and the Oklahoma loss.
Speaker 5: Though, if Alabama wins tomorrow, where do you get four
without using them?
Speaker 1: Well, you got to remember and they're number nine right now.
So how much are they going to jump the IDOL teams?
You know, are they gonna jump Oregon? They're gonna jump
a one loss Ole Miss team. I mean there's.
Speaker 5: Probably the plafform Yeah yeah, But I see your point though,
I know what TC's saying.
Speaker 1: And tech Tech more than likely should win and win.
They could only probably improve.
Speaker 5: They should get a BUYE you know, if Texas Tech
wins tomorrow, I think you pensil in Ohio State, Indiana.
Speaker 6: Texas Tech is buy teams.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Now, everybody has said the committee wise, you don't
get penalized for playing in the championship conference championship game.
Speaker 3: But that's going to.
Speaker 4: Be a hard pill to swallow if Alabama loses because
they're sitting there with the three losses.
Speaker 2: Remember what I said earlier.
Speaker 1: Okay, there's this criteria, doesn't say that anywhere in that criteria.
That's just the narrative that's out there. So yeah, of
course you can. And if you get blasted, you're you're
getting you're getting down, you know, So I'm.
Speaker 6: They probably should if they get blown up.
Speaker 2: Yeah exactly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but if you if you narrowly lose, you could
still probably lose ground depending on what happens in those
other games.
Speaker 4: Which the NCAA has to be careful on the precedents
they set because you're making it more and more that
the beginning of the season doesn't matter. If you're talking
about you have to win at the end, and then
if you play games with these division conference winners, you're
gonna devalue playing conference play.
Speaker 1: Really Remember watch your vernacular. You said the NCAAA. This
is not the NCAA. They have the committee. They have
a committee. They have nothing to do with that. It's
not even the committee. It's the college Football Playoff. This system,
this system is faceless. We don't even know who these
people are that are making these decisions.
Speaker 2: We have no idea.
Speaker 6: We need to expand the field.
Speaker 2: It's going to sixteen and I know, and it should.
Speaker 5: But yeah, once it expands, it'll be like college basketball
where the early season games don't matter. In college basketball,
when the committee sits down in March to make the seeds,
they're not worried about who won the Maui Invitational, right, But.
Speaker 6: It's all about who's playing well in February and March.
Speaker 1: I remember, though, John, you're dealing with thirty five games
versus twelve games.
Speaker 6: It's a very good point.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about last night's Thursday night football game. Detroit
blows Dallas out forty four to thirty. Would you see
on the betting side.
Speaker 5: We we did well in that game. A lot of
people Dallas such a hot team right now. You know,
everybody's on Dallas every week. I think people were shocked
that we didn't do better on Thanksgiving when Dallas beat Camp.
We did well because of the other two games, but
Dallas beat and Kansas City wasn't some great result for us.
Speaker 6: Dallas is a hot team.
Speaker 5: Everyone's betting them every week right now, and luckily for us,
they did again last night.
Speaker 6: We did pretty well in that game.
Speaker 3: Didn't have been with the gutting over because you know
that doll was so no. I mean, John Q public
was not betting me under that game.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I saw some shotgut I saw some sharp guys
going I want to say over.
Speaker 6: Fifty five at the end.
Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, it was a real big number. It
was some sharp accounts and we're playing maybe fifty four
fifty five And yeah, they won easily, so good for them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, with both those offenses and indoor conditions and everything,
you kind of figure was going to be high scoring.
Speaker 2: And seventy four points scored.
Speaker 6: It's a little high scoring.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 1: Crazy uh NFL games for Sunday or even Monday. You're
seeing line movement.
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Minnesota Washington games moved around a lot. Sounds
like Daniels is going to be back for Washington. Nine
is playing quarterback from Minnesota again, is that correct? Aj McCarthy.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I never thought I would say it.
Speaker 3: He's an upgrade from what they had last week. I
don't know what that was last week.
Speaker 1: It was it was a practice squad guy, Max Boser,
University of Minnesota. He's a practice squad guy.
Speaker 5: So how did Minnesota end up in this position? You know,
they were one game away from the one seed last.
Speaker 3: Year and now they with three quarterbacks on the roster.
Speaker 5: It just and I remember I remember watching a lot
of Michigan games when McCarthy was there and they won
the national championship.
Speaker 6: He was a great college player.
Speaker 5: I always thought of him as a college quarterback, correct,
like the way I thought of Stetson Bennett. Yes, yeah,
that And maybe that's not fair, but that's how he So.
I remember when they first said that he was going
to be a first round pick, I was like, what,
I never would have even considered him as a NFL player.
And you know, obviously it's not over for him, but
it's been a disaster. It's on some sharp money on
Pittsburgh today against the Ravens Marcos Steelers. Does look like
there's something wrong with Lamar Jackson?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 6: You know, I mean all kidding a sign.
Speaker 2: He's not healthy. I mean, yeah, he hasn't been healthy
all year.
Speaker 6: He missed some really easy throws on Thanksgiving throws he
normally makes.
Speaker 4: Nine of the last eleven Steeler Ravens games have been
decided by seven or less.
Speaker 6: And the Packers and.
Speaker 5: The Bears is probably the big game in the afternoon,
so the public is finally coming around on the Bears.
There's a real popular public dog who did have a
sharp account lay five and a half on Monday. So
kind of a weird one where it looks like the
sharps are actually on.
Speaker 3: The favorite, like I like Green Bay in a game.
Speaker 4: But just word of advice, don't anything you do with
social media, don't say anything bad about Chicago.
Speaker 3: That fan base is the tough nuts.
Speaker 6: Yeck.
Speaker 5: Marco's friend Kelly, I think, got like, aren't they the
ones that like went after her?
Speaker 6: What did she even say?
Speaker 3: They just went against them, you know.
Speaker 4: And we got crucified last week on the show because
we you know, VR and myself both had Philadelphia on Friday,
and I pointed out the fact that they had played
a soft schedule.
Speaker 3: They had only beaten one team.
Speaker 6: They have played achedule one team.
Speaker 4: With a winning record, and that team was Pittsburgh and
they're a dumpster fire okay and band they came out us,
but VR went the extra step and called them fraudulent
and our our twitter feed did not end all weekend long,
just NonStop.
Speaker 3: I love, I love, I love.
Speaker 5: I just can't imagine like my favorite team winning a
game and maybe like, oh my god, I can't wait
to get on Twitter and tweet at some person I've
never met that doesn't know I exist, to celebrate that
my team won.
Speaker 6: Who cares?
Speaker 2: Those are people that don't have a lot going on
in their life. Job you think.
Speaker 5: I let me say this about the Bears and the
Patriots really quickly. At some point you have to stop
getting in the way of a team and just admit
that you were wrong about them.
Speaker 6: I see people do this every year. They decided earlier
in the year the Bears weren't any.
Speaker 5: Good, and I was one of those people, and they
keep going against them and against them and against them.
Speaker 6: And against them. It's like, just stop. Stop.
Speaker 5: New England is better than we thought they were gonna be.
The Bears are better than we thought they were gonna
be stopped, but they won't I'm talking about Kelly. That's
what I'm talking about, because she's gonna keep doing it
over and over and over again and then finally she's
gonna win. As you go, oh yeah, yeah, well now
you're one and seven doing that, so great.
Speaker 3: Job telling you when she was right. Yeah, doesn't happen that.
Speaker 6: Hard to picture, hard to pick.
Speaker 1: On the opposite side of that, we've seen people that
would stick with these bad teams thinking it's gonna turn.
Speaker 2: Around, like the Browns, the Browns, the Browns. Oh yeah,
you know. I mean it happens in both ways.
Speaker 5: I mean, there's got to be a point where you
just say, my preseason read here was wrong. There you go,
I'm gonna let this go. I was wrong about this.
That's okay.
Speaker 3: He's speaking of the Browns. Are you getting any action
on the Browns in Tennessee?
Speaker 6: We we actually we did.
Speaker 5: We had a there's a guy that I respect a
lot and account we really respect. He played the Browns
minus three and a half and he also played the Bills.
Speaker 6: Minus five and a half. So I can't, I can't
do it. I can't.
Speaker 2: I just is it true? Is it true that that that.
Speaker 1: Is gonna be on the TV inside the poker room
and not on any I.
Speaker 6: Don't want to subject the people.
Speaker 5: The last Sunday was a weird day because we we
won a lot of the games that we needed, but
we lost every.
Speaker 6: Big one we needed. Like in the morning, we really
needed the Browns.
Speaker 5: I want a shock, and you know they I thought
they kind of gave that game away in a lot
of ways and they fumbled upon that and then we needed, uh,
we needed the Raiders.
Speaker 6: The Raiders are becoming the team.
Speaker 5: It's so funny because they're our local team, but they're
becoming the team that we need every week because the
public just cannot wait to go against these guys. They're
doing it again this week on Denver. We really needed
the Raiders on Sunday against against the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Seven and a half? Seven and a half? Is that
number still one sided? And where do you think that
game ends up?
Speaker 5: I don't know if it'll move, but I mean maybe
you get some eight at the end, just to write
a little bit of money the other way, but money line.
Speaker 6: Parlays and teasers and straight bets. Denver, Denver, Denver.
Speaker 4: I'm surprised that you know you're at the seven and
a half number that because what you just said, you're
gonna have everybody that does teasers is gonna tease Denver
down that you didn't get it to the you know,
to the nine to block the teasers.
Speaker 2: That's true.
Speaker 5: I mean we might see the number rise as we
get to the weekend. Three games in the afternoon too, TC.
That's that can be a problem because then your house
is a lot more consolidated, right, so when you lose
those games, it hurts you a lot more than losing
one out of nine in the morning.
Speaker 2: Well, thank you very much for having the sound on
the Buffalo game.
Speaker 1: But in the afternoon last Sunday, I appreciate that there
wasn't a lot to choose exactly. Houston Kansas City obviously
marquee game here, and we saw these teams face off
in the playoffs last year. Houston was right there. Kansasity
ended up winning, covering on on a flukey thing at
the end. How do you where's the money coming in
this game?
Speaker 2: What do you think has happened?
Speaker 5: I think it's really interesting that Kansas City is only
a three and a half point favorite when you consider
that they were a three ish point favorite last week
at Dallas I think it should show you how highly
power rated Houston is right now, and their defense is
playing very very well.
Speaker 3: One of the best in the league, if not the best.
Speaker 6: I think I think it's the best. Would I would
say number one.
Speaker 5: There is some wise guys on KC, though, But I
just think it's a very interesting point spread When you
look at what Dallas was last week, Houston right now
is really very cool, wietly climbing up the ladder of
the better teams of the AFC.
Speaker 6: It's a very wide open AFC.
Speaker 1: And to your point what you said earlier, I just
I'm hearing everybody on Kansas City because they're thinking, like, okay,
must win if they.
Speaker 2: Lose this route.
Speaker 1: But the eye test clearly says Houston is better right
now than Kansas City. And again, this is who Kansas
City is right now.
Speaker 5: It's like Kansas City is in a big game every week. Yeah,
do they ever have an easy opponent?
Speaker 3: They can't lose in another game? Oh, there's too many
teams in front of them, but.
Speaker 6: They just their schedule at some point. It's goddess.
Speaker 1: So you guys got to remember there too. You mentioned like, oh,
the Bears had a soft schedule. Okay, Well that's the
way the NFL's designed it. Okay, if you're a last
place team, you're getting the softer schedule. You're first place team,
you're playing a first place schedule. So that's why that's true.
That's why we get that.
Speaker 5: And Kansas City really every week I feel like they're
in a big game against some other good team.
Speaker 6: Oh, they are there, they gotta went out. They're not
gonna make it.
Speaker 4: It's a big game for both teams. But Kansas City
only has one route to the playoffs and NAT is
through the wild card and they've already lost to some
of the teams that are trying to overcome where Houston
has two ways to play. They're still alive to win
the division. They are only one game out, so they
got two avenues to get there.
Speaker 1: Looking forward to a fantastic weekend. Come watch it out
here at the Westgate, Las Vegas College Football Saturday, NFL Sunday.
Speaker 2: John appreciate the time as always.
Speaker 5: Yeah, good weekend. UFC two college ball playoff draw Sunday morning.
That's true, and then and the subsequent crying on social media.
The sobbing will commence as soon as that ends. It
should be a good Sundays.
Speaker 1: Be a fun day behind the counter with our guy
John Murray. Brought to you by wagter talk dot com
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