1
00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:05,440
Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Wednesday, tump day time for

2
00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:08,800
total basis and some day baseball. I love the midday

3
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:12,240
weekdays because we get baseball pretty much all day. I'm

4
00:00:12,279 --> 00:00:16,960
here with Tokyo Brandon, Brian Leonard. The grind continues. We're

5
00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,079
about twenty days into August, and uh, you know, I

6
00:00:20,199 --> 00:00:22,719
I love every second of it, though, Like I don't

7
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,640
mind how long the MLB season is. I was talking

8
00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,079
to a couple of friends of mine that are in

9
00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,320
the space and they were like, are you getting like

10
00:00:30,359 --> 00:00:34,079
are you getting burnt out? And I'm just like, no, Brian,

11
00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:37,560
Brian Leonard, I'm not at all I want. You could

12
00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:39,439
play this twelve months out of the year, and I

13
00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,000
be in for all twelve months. So we're back for

14
00:00:42,039 --> 00:00:44,840
another day and we're gonna let's go right back to

15
00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:46,920
what I feel like has kind of been our feature

16
00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,079
series so far for the beginning of part of the week.

17
00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,000
Brewers Cubs. How about those Cubbies? They sweep the double

18
00:00:53,039 --> 00:00:56,359
header yesterday. I had Game one, right, I gotta be honest,

19
00:00:56,399 --> 00:00:58,880
that was wasn't really expecting them to come out and

20
00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,200
sweep it, but they did, and that's huge for the Cups.

21
00:01:02,679 --> 00:01:04,519
And now they have to turn around and play game

22
00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:07,640
four of what's going to be a five game series.

23
00:01:08,439 --> 00:01:11,719
So Miserski, Rea, how are you seeing this one? And

24
00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,280
what do you expect out of Miseroski from a length perspective.

25
00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,000
Tonight we had.

26
00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,719
Speaker 2: Somebody in the chat one of the two chats, I

27
00:01:19,719 --> 00:01:22,280
think it might have been the YouTube chat, and he

28
00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,439
was talking about with football going on right now, do

29
00:01:25,519 --> 00:01:30,120
we think we get a better advantage in baseball? Yeah,

30
00:01:30,239 --> 00:01:32,280
we do because they don't bring as much money in

31
00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:34,640
for baseball as you do for football. They'll get more

32
00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,239
money on in a preseason football game than they will

33
00:01:37,239 --> 00:01:40,200
on half the card in Major League Baseball. And I

34
00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:43,519
think you know we've won. I've won ten of the

35
00:01:43,599 --> 00:01:46,680
last eleven days. My big play yesterday was the A's

36
00:01:47,239 --> 00:01:49,079
and we all liked it on the show. I believe,

37
00:01:49,519 --> 00:01:52,400
and they win that game going away as a nice

38
00:01:52,439 --> 00:01:55,640
hunderdog price. Yes, this is the best time of year

39
00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,120
to bet on baseball where other people are worried about

40
00:01:59,519 --> 00:02:03,120
other games, especially in football, and college football starts this week.

41
00:02:03,159 --> 00:02:05,879
So yeah, we've gotten some really good numbers and I

42
00:02:05,879 --> 00:02:09,280
think we could take advantage of that. We're going in

43
00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:14,080
this Milwaukee series, Jacob Miserowski comes back. If you remember

44
00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:20,280
his last start before the injury, he was playing the

45
00:02:20,319 --> 00:02:23,240
Cubs and he was it went pretty well, give up

46
00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:26,560
two in the rounds, I believe in four innings they

47
00:02:26,599 --> 00:02:29,199
took a shot back to the elbow and he missed

48
00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:33,159
his last start. So he came out. He came back

49
00:02:33,199 --> 00:02:37,639
from the aisle against Cincinnati and got bombed right right

50
00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:41,840
out of the the gate right there. So I think

51
00:02:41,879 --> 00:02:45,280
a lot of the shine is off Miserawski a little

52
00:02:45,319 --> 00:02:46,919
bit coming into this. He comes in with a three

53
00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,240
point eight ninety ra spected are is still very good

54
00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,719
at two point sixty five one point one three whip.

55
00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,360
Those concerns we had coming into the season about his

56
00:02:56,439 --> 00:03:01,199
walk right are back eleven point five on the walk grate,

57
00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:03,960
but his strikeout rate thirty six, So he's still at

58
00:03:04,039 --> 00:03:07,039
twenty four point five, which is elite level when it

59
00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:10,879
comes to strikeout minus walk grade. And you have to

60
00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,120
think he's looking forward to this start, obviously, because he

61
00:03:14,199 --> 00:03:16,960
got hurt last time he played the Cubs, but he

62
00:03:17,039 --> 00:03:20,400
got behind to Cincinnati. So the motivation is there for

63
00:03:20,439 --> 00:03:23,360
the young guy, and he's looked pretty good and he's

64
00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:29,319
been motivated this year. Colin Ray going for the Cubs.

65
00:03:29,759 --> 00:03:32,080
We've talked about him all year long. He's an ending'siter.

66
00:03:32,319 --> 00:03:36,400
He's got a seven seatings, seven seasons, four point four

67
00:03:36,439 --> 00:03:39,800
to five ERA, one point two eight whip. Nothing is

68
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,919
going to make it to the Hall of Fame. He

69
00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,000
probably won't even be remembered much after he leaves the Cubs.

70
00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,319
But still he's very good at walking. People's in the

71
00:03:48,319 --> 00:03:51,199
seventy ninth percentule and his extensions in the seventy first

72
00:03:51,199 --> 00:03:54,439
Percentel is a six foot five, so that makes it

73
00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:59,719
tough to hit him. Plus he's got seven different pitches,

74
00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:03,080
and we always liked that kind of thing. So when

75
00:04:03,159 --> 00:04:05,680
you're got a veteran like he is, he's thirty five

76
00:04:05,759 --> 00:04:08,879
years old. If something's not working for him, he can

77
00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:13,800
always go somewhere else. From a bullpen standpoint, the Brewers

78
00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:17,439
are in much better shape in the bullpen because they

79
00:04:17,439 --> 00:04:21,279
did lose the double heady yesterday and Aaron Ashby threw

80
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:25,800
fifty pitches. They're in a situation where their top four

81
00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,480
out of five guys and the bullpen are all available here,

82
00:04:28,879 --> 00:04:33,519
whereas the Cubs everybody other than Ben Brown pitched yesterday

83
00:04:34,439 --> 00:04:38,319
and Ben Brown pitched, I believe through fifty four pitches

84
00:04:38,319 --> 00:04:40,279
three days ago, so he's not going to pitch either,

85
00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,560
So you've got a more of a tired I mean

86
00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:46,040
they're not completely out of it. I mean a lot

87
00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,519
of the Cubs guys they only threw ten to fifteen

88
00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,560
pitches yesterday. They'll be able to bounce back, but still

89
00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,519
because they were used in the double headery yesterday, I

90
00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:58,160
think we have a nice pitching advantage for Milwaukee here.

91
00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:00,920
I prefer the Brewers. And this from the line is

92
00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:07,600
like minus won twelve currently Milwaukee. Yeah, let's go with Yeah,

93
00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:10,199
maybe minus won twelve a total of seven to the under.

94
00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:15,120
I think Milwaukee evens up the series here after an

95
00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,839
embarrassing day yesterday, and we get to the fifth game

96
00:05:18,879 --> 00:05:21,240
of the series where they're fighting it out for the

97
00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:23,720
series win. Obviously, the games are much more important in

98
00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:27,800
Chicago because they're still very much behind. They're fighting for

99
00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:30,560
that wildcard spot. But I think it's a good spot

100
00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,319
overall for Milwaukee to make a nice little comeback here.

101
00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian's hot right now. I went four to O

102
00:05:38,759 --> 00:05:41,279
and MLB the day before yesterday. I went six and

103
00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,839
O in MLB yesterday, so it's going well, nice day,

104
00:05:44,879 --> 00:05:47,399
and I did have the Minnesota Twins team total under

105
00:05:47,439 --> 00:05:52,439
I had the Yankees, I had well whatever. Oh, the

106
00:05:52,439 --> 00:05:54,879
Blue Jays was my five dollars play on the money line.

107
00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,560
That was an easy win. Everyone was worried about them

108
00:05:58,639 --> 00:06:03,000
missing Vlad, but I mean, let's face it, Lad's replacements

109
00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:06,160
probably better than anyone in the Pittsburgh lineup, so it

110
00:06:06,199 --> 00:06:09,439
didn't really matter, which is what I figured so onto

111
00:06:09,439 --> 00:06:13,920
this game. I'm gonna go with the Brewers here because

112
00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,560
it's a perfect spot for them. They lost to yesterday,

113
00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:20,839
they come back with the better pitcher, they have the

114
00:06:20,879 --> 00:06:22,959
better bullpen and the better hitting. And if you look

115
00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:27,720
at the pitchers numbers against the batters they're facing today,

116
00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:33,319
Mizrowski great numbers against these batters. He's got a one

117
00:06:33,439 --> 00:06:36,759
seventy six average against in a four to forty oh PS.

118
00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,680
Granted the sample size only seventeen, but that means he's

119
00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,920
got probably what one or two starts against him, and

120
00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:47,600
he's held them down very well. RAA against the Brewers

121
00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,680
not so good twenty at bats against, four to fifty

122
00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,839
average against in a nine to seventy six OPS, anything

123
00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,199
over seven p fifty in my opinion is not good,

124
00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:00,399
So that's two hundred points over being not good. Brewers

125
00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,800
is just a better team right now. Cubs are not

126
00:07:02,879 --> 00:07:07,480
hitting well. I don't look at yesterday on purpose. I

127
00:07:07,519 --> 00:07:11,399
do kind of like for a spot situation, But just

128
00:07:11,439 --> 00:07:13,439
because a team scored a lot of runs yesterday, that

129
00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:17,319
doesn't mean all of a sudden they're a juggernaut. Brewers

130
00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:21,120
overall better team here, so better pitcher as well. I

131
00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,839
would take the bruis. One alarming stat though, is Missowski

132
00:07:24,959 --> 00:07:26,920
on the road has a seven plus the are that's

133
00:07:26,959 --> 00:07:28,920
a little worrying, So that'll make me knock it down

134
00:07:28,959 --> 00:07:29,800
to a small percent.

135
00:07:32,079 --> 00:07:34,959
Speaker 1: So I do think I like the Brewers as well,

136
00:07:34,959 --> 00:07:36,680
But I guess the only thing I do think it's

137
00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,600
worth pointing out that they are they have the luxury

138
00:07:39,639 --> 00:07:43,199
of making some business decisions over the next six weeks

139
00:07:43,319 --> 00:07:46,560
or so, Like, for example, miss Rowski's not throwing more

140
00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,279
than seventy pitches here like that would be crazy, and

141
00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,120
I don't think you'll see him. I don't think you're

142
00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:55,000
going to see him throw more than eighty the rest

143
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:57,240
of the season. I actually think I think you're probably

144
00:07:57,279 --> 00:08:01,920
looking at seventy five is probably the target for him.

145
00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:04,800
If you look at his most recent starts, it's like,

146
00:08:05,199 --> 00:08:07,519
I don't think he's exceeded eighty pitches since the All

147
00:08:07,519 --> 00:08:10,480
Star break, and that's by design, it's not just because

148
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,920
you know, he got sort of roughed up by the

149
00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:16,160
Red So you know, best case scenario, which I still

150
00:08:16,199 --> 00:08:19,439
think is worth Like, I'm still fine with this because

151
00:08:19,519 --> 00:08:22,319
of the bullpen situation. So because the Brewers have a

152
00:08:22,319 --> 00:08:26,160
pretty fresh bullpen. I mean, you get three four good

153
00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:27,920
innings out of miss Roski. Let's say he gives you

154
00:08:27,959 --> 00:08:32,240
four good innings. In some cases that's that's maybe not

155
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,360
enough to justify the price tag, but in this case,

156
00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:39,720
knowing that you really have options after him, I could

157
00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:41,639
get down with the Brewers here for that reason. So

158
00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,840
I think Visaski will be better than he was in

159
00:08:44,919 --> 00:08:47,919
his previous start because it's like his stuff is so good,

160
00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,679
he's not going to get blown up very often. So like,

161
00:08:50,759 --> 00:08:54,200
let's say he gives you four solid innings, Brewers should

162
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:57,159
be fine with the bullpen arms that they have. So yeah,

163
00:08:57,159 --> 00:08:59,360
I have a pretty strong lean toward the Brewers as well.

164
00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:02,039
But just understand because someone was in the comments like,

165
00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,519
you're crazy to suggest that the Brewers are going to

166
00:09:04,519 --> 00:09:06,679
be a five hundred team the rest of the way. Well,

167
00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,879
it's like they've done, they've already done what they needed

168
00:09:09,919 --> 00:09:14,279
to do. Right They're thirty game thirty some odd games

169
00:09:14,279 --> 00:09:17,000
over five hundred. They have like an eight game lead,

170
00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,159
seven eight game lead in the division. They have the

171
00:09:19,159 --> 00:09:21,519
best record in the National League right now by like

172
00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:25,000
seven games. So don't be surprised that this is a

173
00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,159
five hundred team the rest of the way because they

174
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,240
don't need like and it's not because they're not still

175
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,120
an elite team. It's that they're not going to need

176
00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,600
to sort of like max out on resources like some

177
00:09:36,639 --> 00:09:38,840
of these other teams need to do, because right now,

178
00:09:38,879 --> 00:09:41,919
the Brewers' main goal is get to the playoffs healthy.

179
00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:44,559
Let's make sure we've got Mesarowski, you know, going to

180
00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,480
the playoffs where he can go a full start. So

181
00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,200
I do think that it's like it's not the worst

182
00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,039
spot for the Brewers, but like, just this isn't going

183
00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,360
to be the juggernaut over the next six weeks that

184
00:09:55,399 --> 00:09:57,799
you saw over the previous six weeks because they just

185
00:09:57,840 --> 00:09:59,919
don't need to be. And I think you'll see that

186
00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,000
them manage according to that. So I do lean here

187
00:10:04,159 --> 00:10:07,279
toward the Brewers, but that's probably why this is priced

188
00:10:07,279 --> 00:10:09,919
where it is because minus one ten on the Brewers

189
00:10:09,919 --> 00:10:11,720
seems like a gift here. But I think you have

190
00:10:11,759 --> 00:10:16,440
to take some of those other things into consideration. All right,

191
00:10:16,519 --> 00:10:20,360
let's go to a couple new people. First of all,

192
00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:24,440
DN new member, thank you, We get the alert. We

193
00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:27,200
got a new YouTube member. That's huge for us. So

194
00:10:27,279 --> 00:10:29,960
if you're not subscribed to the YouTube channel, and you can,

195
00:10:30,879 --> 00:10:33,799
it takes a couple of seconds, it's free. That greatly

196
00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:38,679
helps the show, so it's very much appreciated. Likes and subscribes,

197
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:42,799
but specifically the subscribes are huge for the show, so

198
00:10:43,159 --> 00:10:48,279
we very much appreciate it. And yeah, all the comments

199
00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,639
on the show are awesome as well, and the one

200
00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:52,399
I just want to point one thing out before we

201
00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,879
go to the next game. I don't think we're at

202
00:10:54,919 --> 00:10:58,919
the point where the books really haven't banded MLB yet.

203
00:10:59,159 --> 00:11:01,320
I still think the line are pretty sharp right now,

204
00:11:01,639 --> 00:11:03,840
but like, give it a week, like let let college

205
00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,960
football start this weekend. I think you're gonna see some

206
00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,840
some very soft lines in Major League Baseball and I

207
00:11:09,879 --> 00:11:14,080
don't and where I think they really struggle is they

208
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,879
don't keep up with the roster moves. Like that's where

209
00:11:17,919 --> 00:11:20,080
they get burnt, is they can't keep up with all

210
00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,360
the roster moves. Rosters start to expand guys get called up,

211
00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:27,720
and it's just not baked into the line. So yeah,

212
00:11:27,759 --> 00:11:30,720
that's a that's a great point by whoever made that comment,

213
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:32,799
And I'm glad Brian remember to bring it up. All right,

214
00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:37,159
Sonny says, are the Yankees bats awake or what? Well?

215
00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,960
TV loved the Yankees yesterday? They got it done. I was,

216
00:11:41,519 --> 00:11:44,000
I gotta be honest, I was all ready to play them.

217
00:11:44,039 --> 00:11:46,399
I got a little scared with the line move in

218
00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:49,600
that game. The race took some serious money yesterday to

219
00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,440
sort of drive that down. I think it went off

220
00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,480
like minus one twenty or something of that nature. But

221
00:11:55,519 --> 00:11:57,919
the Yankees was clearly the right side. So Brian Lennard

222
00:11:57,919 --> 00:12:00,600
will go to you, are the Yankees bats a week?

223
00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,120
And can they do it against Drew Rasmussen here, who

224
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,000
looks like the race might have a little bit of

225
00:12:05,039 --> 00:12:06,200
a pitching engine this one.

226
00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,720
Speaker 2: The Yankees are now third in baseball the last two

227
00:12:11,799 --> 00:12:16,799
weeks with the one thirty seven WRC plus tells you

228
00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,000
how quick it could turn around. Because the hottest team

229
00:12:20,039 --> 00:12:22,840
in baseball hitting wise in the last two weeks New

230
00:12:22,919 --> 00:12:25,960
York Mets with a one forty six. They were dead

231
00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:29,600
last just a few days ago, so they've they've really

232
00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:33,320
picked it up, and which is one of the reasons

233
00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:37,120
why I use the uh the recency a little bit.

234
00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:39,519
I started the year looking at season to date and

235
00:12:39,519 --> 00:12:44,679
then doing month to date, and I agree with with Brandon.

236
00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:47,360
He uses the shorter timeframe so you could put a

237
00:12:47,399 --> 00:12:50,080
little bit more in perspective that teams get hot, teams

238
00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:53,120
get cold, and you got to take advantage of it

239
00:12:53,159 --> 00:12:55,960
when they're in that situation. But we're looking at for

240
00:12:56,000 --> 00:13:01,639
the Yankees here, we've got Slitler against rash rash Mussen

241
00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:04,399
comes in is the slag favorite, about a one twenty favorite.

242
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:09,039
He's more proven and he's been as I mentioned in

243
00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,879
the past, anytime he's healthy. He's one of the best

244
00:13:11,919 --> 00:13:15,759
pitchers in baseball. Not flashy, but you get good value

245
00:13:15,759 --> 00:13:19,360
in him and the Yankee starter going today and the

246
00:13:19,519 --> 00:13:23,279
totally that is eight and a half. But yeah, the

247
00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,840
Yankees are hitting much better now than they were before.

248
00:13:25,879 --> 00:13:29,840
If you take a look at Schlittler in six starts,

249
00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,799
so far this year three point nine four ERA, four

250
00:13:32,799 --> 00:13:36,480
point five six expected, one point five to two whip.

251
00:13:36,519 --> 00:13:39,440
That's our major concern here is fastball ve lost. He's excellent.

252
00:13:39,759 --> 00:13:42,120
He's in the ninety fifth percentile in that regard. His

253
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,120
average fastball is four seemer ninety eight miles an hour.

254
00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:49,200
That's three miles an hour better than the average right

255
00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:53,080
hander in Major League Baseball. He does throw five pitches,

256
00:13:53,279 --> 00:13:55,799
but by far his four seemer he uses the most

257
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,480
fifty seven percent. It hasn't really hurt him thus far

258
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,240
because he does have that extreme fastball miles per hour.

259
00:14:03,919 --> 00:14:07,480
But if that continues, he's going to have to develop

260
00:14:07,519 --> 00:14:11,480
some other pitches to help him out. And he's going

261
00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,120
up against here against a pretty good Tampa Bay team

262
00:14:14,159 --> 00:14:16,840
that's got some depth, although I will say they've had

263
00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:22,440
some injuries lately. Obviously, their first baseman DH was hurt earlier,

264
00:14:22,919 --> 00:14:26,039
Yandy Diaz was hurt yesterday. They had another guy get

265
00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,600
hit yesterday. So it'll be interesting to see what Tampa

266
00:14:29,639 --> 00:14:32,360
Bay throws out as a lineup today. And we just

267
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,159
talked about the Brewers. The Brewers shortstop not a major

268
00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:40,039
offensive player, but he's been hitting better lately. He may

269
00:14:40,039 --> 00:14:42,240
be out, and he's an excellent defender, so that's a

270
00:14:42,279 --> 00:14:45,919
concern there for the Brewers. But Raspus has been very

271
00:14:45,919 --> 00:14:48,600
good and I usually like to play him. The problem

272
00:14:48,679 --> 00:14:50,399
is I don't want to lay the one twenty here.

273
00:14:51,159 --> 00:14:54,360
I think Tampa Bay's got an advantage in their starting

274
00:14:54,399 --> 00:14:58,399
pitching here, but because of some of the injuries and

275
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,039
some of the guys who may not play today, the

276
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:05,120
Yankees definitely have the advantage in hitting since they've been

277
00:15:05,159 --> 00:15:09,679
able to put basically their DH out in the outfield.

278
00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,960
That gives them another great bat. The veteran Stanton usually

279
00:15:15,039 --> 00:15:17,360
just dhs, but they've been putting in the outfield. He's

280
00:15:17,399 --> 00:15:20,039
not pretty, but he's been getting it done out there.

281
00:15:20,039 --> 00:15:23,639
And they've been letting obviously their best player DH, so

282
00:15:24,159 --> 00:15:27,639
that helps them a little bit here. The Yankees offense

283
00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,840
has been really good lately, and this is probably about

284
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,559
as deep as they've been in quite some time. So

285
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:36,799
we've got Tampa Bay pitching against the Yankees hitting. I

286
00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:41,200
think the lines about where it should be smallby passing, Yeah.

287
00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:43,320
Speaker 3: I pretty much agree with that. And by the way, guys,

288
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,200
I have my MLB plays up already today on a

289
00:15:46,279 --> 00:15:49,240
ten and er run in MLB six oh yesterday, four

290
00:15:49,279 --> 00:15:51,360
of the day before. I'm sure these guys are going

291
00:15:51,399 --> 00:15:53,360
to have something up to I have a free play

292
00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,440
in MLB up as well. Go to waja talk dot

293
00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:01,440
com and check out our pages. Subscribe as well, because

294
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,960
wager Talk is we need some more subscribers. Guys. We're

295
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,279
almost at at a milestone, so if you could help

296
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,200
us out those of you who aren't subscribed, just hit

297
00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,440
subscribe and you'll be notified anytime one of us puts

298
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:17,919
a single game video out Regarding this one, Yeah, I

299
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:21,279
loved the Yankees yesterday. But the reason I loved the

300
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,799
Yankees yesterday because their bats were hot, and because I

301
00:16:24,879 --> 00:16:30,399
liked Rodon's history against Tampa. He didn't pitch that well actually,

302
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:34,639
but they still pulled it out. He was okay, not

303
00:16:34,759 --> 00:16:39,600
great today though. Also yesterday, bas his numbers against the Yankees,

304
00:16:39,639 --> 00:16:41,080
I kind of had a feeling they were going to

305
00:16:41,159 --> 00:16:44,159
tag him, and they did, so Rodon didn't have to

306
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:48,120
be so sharp. Today is kind of a different story

307
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,759
because I do not like Schlitler at all. I do

308
00:16:51,919 --> 00:16:56,480
like saying his name, but I'm not gonna take a

309
00:16:56,519 --> 00:17:01,360
Schlitler today because I just don't think I don't like

310
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,960
his numbers. I mean, the sample size is small, but

311
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:08,559
Tampa Bay has has beat him up pretty good. Rasmussen.

312
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:10,880
Take a look at his numbers against the Yankees, a

313
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:12,920
one sixty one average against in a four to h

314
00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:16,039
three OPS and that's with fifty six at bats against.

315
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,720
So he definitely has the potential to hold this line

316
00:17:18,799 --> 00:17:22,680
up down. But the Yankees are hot and Tampa can't

317
00:17:22,759 --> 00:17:26,799
hit for Jack right now, So that all leads me

318
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:28,799
to believe this game is going to be an under.

319
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,720
But I don't want to bet an under in this ballpark,

320
00:17:32,319 --> 00:17:34,240
and I don't want to bet an under with a

321
00:17:34,279 --> 00:17:37,680
team that's as hot as the Yankees. So I will

322
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,680
pass on this game. But if I were to bet it,

323
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:40,960
I would do an under.

324
00:17:42,839 --> 00:17:45,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of in the same boat. Schlitzler's got

325
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,039
a ton of upside he'd throw. You know, he's throwing

326
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:53,200
ninety eight like that's yeah. He from a upside standpoint,

327
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:57,039
He's a guy that like is probably not that far

328
00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,000
off from like really figuring it out potentially being pretty good.

329
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,400
He's got you know, he throws four or five pitches

330
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,319
ninety eight mile an hour fastball. He's shown the ability

331
00:18:05,319 --> 00:18:07,720
to command those pitches at the minor league level, you know,

332
00:18:07,799 --> 00:18:09,559
now can can he do it in the big leagues?

333
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,839
And he's shown flashes of doing it, like last time

334
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,279
out against the Twins, he was very solid five innings,

335
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,960
one run on two hits, six strikeouts. You know, he

336
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,319
really hasn't been blown up at the big leagues. He's

337
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,680
he's kind of steadily given up, right, He's given up

338
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,400
something at each start. I guess that's my concern here

339
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:31,119
because we know the you know, Rasmussen at his best

340
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,359
can be like seven scoreless, right like if you get

341
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:37,759
Rasmussen's you know, good effort, like like you know, the

342
00:18:37,839 --> 00:18:40,559
last and he's and he's shown it of late, one

343
00:18:40,599 --> 00:18:43,440
earned run against the A's last time out, six shutout

344
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,119
innings against the Mariners. So that's I guess my concern

345
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,599
is just you know, I like I would love to

346
00:18:48,599 --> 00:18:51,680
find a spot to sort of play the rate, Like

347
00:18:51,759 --> 00:18:54,480
I really like Rasmussen a lot of red on the

348
00:18:54,559 --> 00:18:57,400
on the stat cast page. You know, he he is

349
00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:01,200
a guy that I've been OK backing, and I think

350
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,240
I even had him for a I believe a big

351
00:19:04,279 --> 00:19:07,960
bet recently that cash. But I'm just too I'm too

352
00:19:08,039 --> 00:19:10,519
concerned with like this. Like Togyo Brandon made a great point,

353
00:19:10,559 --> 00:19:13,319
this Ray's lineup doesn't hit, and at least they don't

354
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,319
hit consistently, And there's just too much upside with Schlittler

355
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,599
where if he's got it working, I could see him

356
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,559
sort of shutting the Rays down. So yeah, maybe the under,

357
00:19:21,559 --> 00:19:24,079
but then again, you're in a ballpark that's not exactly

358
00:19:24,319 --> 00:19:26,440
under friendly, so so so a tough one.

359
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 2: Let me.

360
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 3: If you're done, can I just add my two cents?

361
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,039
Let me give you my rankings for these bullpens in

362
00:19:33,079 --> 00:19:36,240
current form, the Rays number three and Yankees number seven,

363
00:19:36,279 --> 00:19:39,279
So that kind of bolsters an under as well that

364
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:40,880
Adam seems to agree with.

365
00:19:42,799 --> 00:19:44,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just like how both guys are throwing the ball,

366
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,599
and I think I think there's upside to Schlittler that's

367
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,039
not fully priced into the market because he's given up

368
00:19:50,039 --> 00:19:52,400
a little bit here or there. But again, I just

369
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,640
don't know how how much the books and the odds

370
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,240
makers have watched him pitch prior to him getting the

371
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,839
big leagues. He's got far more upside than a lot

372
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,400
of other guys that are that are like being called up.

373
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,519
So I think that that's just like, you know, a

374
00:20:05,559 --> 00:20:08,920
point that needs to be made. All right, Antonio, H

375
00:20:09,039 --> 00:20:11,680
he's headed to the Royals game tonight. That's awesome. First

376
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,279
of all, I wish I was headed to the Royals

377
00:20:13,279 --> 00:20:17,880
game tonight, and he wants some action on this game.

378
00:20:18,319 --> 00:20:21,200
And there's other people talking about Rangers Royals in the chat,

379
00:20:21,279 --> 00:20:24,279
So let's get this conversation going. I want to point

380
00:20:24,319 --> 00:20:26,240
out before I go to Brian, I'll point out we

381
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,039
don't really have a starter for the Rangers yet, but

382
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,160
I'm pretty confident it's gonna be Kumar Rockers. So this

383
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,880
would have been, I believe been de grom start or

384
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,200
a spot in the rotation. They are going to skip him,

385
00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,920
so I know we're gonna get Noah Cameron for the Royals,

386
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,880
and I think, like, let's put it this way. If

387
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,640
it's not Rocker, I don't know who it's gonna be

388
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,200
for the Rangers, but I can tell you right now,

389
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,759
if it's not him, and you were to bet the Royals,

390
00:20:53,799 --> 00:20:56,960
now you've probably got yourself a good number. So Rocker's

391
00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,000
the only one that makes actual sense in my opinion,

392
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,720
And I guess let's give Antonio eight some action for

393
00:21:04,759 --> 00:21:06,640
the game. Can he can he bet the home team here.

394
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 2: I think there's value without knowing who the starter is,

395
00:21:12,599 --> 00:21:16,920
because right now you can get Kansas City at home

396
00:21:17,279 --> 00:21:20,759
upwards of plus one oh nine. You get a good

397
00:21:20,839 --> 00:21:23,119
number with Cameron on the mound. And I like Cameron.

398
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,799
He's a lefty going against this Texas team who is

399
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:32,960
fading fast, and obviously de gram is There were somewhat

400
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,599
concerned about de Gram with all the engines is pitched

401
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,880
and he hasn't been quite as good as of late.

402
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:43,279
So who is Texas gonna throw out there on the

403
00:21:43,319 --> 00:21:45,799
mound who's better than Camera? I don't think they can.

404
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,319
So if you do like Kansas City, I think it's

405
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,839
a good time to bet it now because once they

406
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,880
decide to use let's say they use Kumar Rocker. He's

407
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,240
got a decent future, but he has he's been very

408
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,960
inconsistent and I would rather have Cameron be totally honest

409
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,400
with you. And I also want Kansas City because they're

410
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,680
playing at home and they're playing better ball. So yeah,

411
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,799
I'm interested in Kansas City here, and I think if

412
00:22:09,839 --> 00:22:13,200
we can get him before they announced, we're getting even

413
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,359
a better number. Cameron on the season two point four

414
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,240
to seventy RA three point three nine. Obviously he's been

415
00:22:19,279 --> 00:22:23,960
a little bit beneficial and there'll be some negative CORRELATIONIA

416
00:22:24,039 --> 00:22:25,880
coming up. But he's got a one point oh sixty IRA.

417
00:22:26,519 --> 00:22:28,559
If you take a look at his stack cast page.

418
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,880
The worst thing he does is his fastball veloss. He's

419
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,160
only in the twentieth percentile. He's a lefty that flows

420
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,319
ninety two point three miles per hour, which is less

421
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,079
than a mile per hour, less than a league average

422
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,319
for a lefty. And he does throw five pitches sixteen

423
00:22:45,319 --> 00:22:47,759
percent or more, even a seat four seam route although

424
00:22:47,759 --> 00:22:50,119
it is number his number one pitch is only twenty

425
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:53,319
seven percent of the time. So I really like Noah Cameron.

426
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,240
I like the situation here, and without knowing who the

427
00:22:58,279 --> 00:23:01,079
starter is, I can't get into that. Yeah, to me,

428
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,000
this is going to be a game that's going to

429
00:23:03,039 --> 00:23:06,079
make my card somehow today and it probably is going

430
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:07,839
to be as soon as the show is over, because

431
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,200
I want to get that number before it gets away.

432
00:23:11,799 --> 00:23:14,559
And camera should be am am I wrong here that

433
00:23:14,599 --> 00:23:16,960
he should be about a one thirty favorite here if

434
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,640
he goes against us somebody like that. So yeah, there's

435
00:23:21,279 --> 00:23:22,799
plenty of value here on Kansas City.

436
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:28,319
Speaker 3: Right now, guys, go to our pages at waygertalk dot com.

437
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,440
We always have free plays up. Take the ten seconds

438
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,440
to go there and check out what we have offered today.

439
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,720
I have mine up already today. I'm sure these guys

440
00:23:37,039 --> 00:23:40,640
do or will very shortly. I have no idea why

441
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,680
the Royals are an underdog here. Makes no sense to me.

442
00:23:44,599 --> 00:23:47,160
I saw them at plus one ten before the show started.

443
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,640
That makes absolutely no sense to me. The Rangers can't

444
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,160
hit right now, and the bullpen is playing with garbage.

445
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,680
The fact that they didn't have a starter announced means

446
00:23:59,759 --> 00:24:02,799
to me that they're gonna be there could There's a

447
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,880
potential for a lot of bullpen usage here, and their

448
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,160
bullpen is not performing well. I have him ranked twenty

449
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:14,480
one in current form out of thirty teams. Royals, on

450
00:24:14,519 --> 00:24:17,279
the other hand, look at their hitting number seven in

451
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,400
MLB in current form and their bullpen's ranked nine. I

452
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:24,799
got Noah Cameron ranked number nine a on a curve

453
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,559
of thirty. He's not number nine out of two hundred pittuers,

454
00:24:27,559 --> 00:24:30,200
but he's in the top one third of pictures according

455
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,720
to my numbers. No sample size against these batters, which

456
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,160
tends to favor the picture if the batters have never

457
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:41,559
seen him and he's got good home good home stats.

458
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:46,400
So I don't know why the Rangers are favored, makes

459
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,480
absolutely no sense. This is gonna be my parlay, leg

460
00:24:49,519 --> 00:24:51,759
I'm gonna take the Royals on the money line here

461
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:55,000
currently one between one ten and minus one ten, So

462
00:24:55,079 --> 00:24:57,079
I guess plus Andrew would be a fair number.

463
00:24:58,839 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's what I'm kind of looking at

464
00:25:01,079 --> 00:25:03,119
right now. I just checked out, like DraftKings, some of

465
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,119
the sites that do have so not every site has

466
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:10,759
this this line up yet, probably for that reason. Oh really, yeah,

467
00:25:10,839 --> 00:25:14,039
Like it looks like, yeah, it looks like the places

468
00:25:14,079 --> 00:25:16,880
that do are are still hanging like even money. Is

469
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,359
that true? Brian is about even even on me? Right now?

470
00:25:19,599 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 2: I'm seeing ESPN bet at minus one fifteen FANDOL minus

471
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:28,119
one sixteen Caesar's and minus ten mm, so.

472
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:32,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, I see. I mean, listen, here here's the deal

473
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:36,000
if you I think, if you like the Royals and

474
00:25:36,039 --> 00:25:39,519
you there are still some like minus one oh fives.

475
00:25:39,559 --> 00:25:43,279
Even I did see DraftKings, just moved it to a favorite. Uh.

476
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,200
They were like plus one oh two before I got

477
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,160
in the show. It's it's I think it's minus one

478
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:48,200
five five.

479
00:25:48,039 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 3: Now and it's one on one is what Russell's saying.

480
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 1: Okay, minus one on one. Yeah, Like the point is

481
00:25:54,039 --> 00:25:59,240
there's a there's almost no way, like you're not locking

482
00:25:59,279 --> 00:26:01,400
in a good number by taking the Royals right now,

483
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,640
and it's it's it goes back to what everyone's saying.

484
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,240
But uh, Kumar, Rocker, I feel like has been sent

485
00:26:06,319 --> 00:26:09,200
down three times this year already, and last time in

486
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,400
the last time out down at Triple A got bobbed.

487
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,480
Granted it was in Albuquerque, but still like that doesn't

488
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,440
it shouldn't really matter. That's not the Albuquerque doesn't have

489
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,240
a great, great lineup right now. So it's like, yeah,

490
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,359
it was altitude, but he still can't be getting blown

491
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:28,559
up by by that team. So I don't see how

492
00:26:28,599 --> 00:26:31,759
there's any way it's not him because and if it's not,

493
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,759
then maybe if it's let's put it this way, if

494
00:26:34,759 --> 00:26:38,240
it's not Rocker and it's a like somehow a collection

495
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,079
of Rangers depth arms, then the Royals should probably be

496
00:26:41,079 --> 00:26:44,640
like minus one forty. So you're you're I think you're

497
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,400
onto that's that's gonna be a good bet. I would

498
00:26:47,599 --> 00:26:48,079
you know, I.

499
00:26:48,039 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 3: Would take it even if de Gram was starting. I

500
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:51,160
would take the Royals today.

501
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 1: Well yeah, I mean it would obviously be a much

502
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,160
different it would be a much different price. But yeah,

503
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,440
I think there's you know, shout out to to you, Brian.

504
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,119
At the trade deadline, you were the one person I

505
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:05,160
don't think I heard many people sort of pumping up

506
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,880
the Royals, and Brian came on this show and said,

507
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,799
I think the Royals had a great deadline. I was

508
00:27:10,839 --> 00:27:12,720
even like, yeah, they're kind of I don't see them

509
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,319
getting into the mix, but they're right in the mix.

510
00:27:15,519 --> 00:27:19,240
Five straight wins, and that's the other thing they don't.

511
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,839
They can't afford to, like not keep stacking wins. So

512
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,480
it's like they're not in a scenario where, you know,

513
00:27:26,519 --> 00:27:28,799
they didn't have a bunch of bullpen usage yesterday. I

514
00:27:28,799 --> 00:27:31,200
think Lugo pitched in Ato like the seventh inning, So

515
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,720
they're okay, They're set up okay there. And I mean

516
00:27:34,759 --> 00:27:38,000
this is a team that has won five straight games.

517
00:27:38,039 --> 00:27:39,720
They're now two and a half games back of the

518
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,319
Mariners for that last spot. So the Royals have a

519
00:27:42,319 --> 00:27:45,039
lot to play for. And I'll keep going back to

520
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,720
that Rangers, who we retired earlier this year was at

521
00:27:48,759 --> 00:27:51,200
Kevin Pilar and he was just he kind of talked

522
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,079
about how there's like no camaraderie in that clubhouse and

523
00:27:54,599 --> 00:27:57,720
just kind of everyone doing their own thing. Yeah, I'm

524
00:27:57,799 --> 00:28:00,400
kind of out on the Rangers. I was wrong them.

525
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,119
I thought that they would sort of figure it out

526
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,960
at some point. They never really have, and now they

527
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:06,519
just they look like they're a team that's just going

528
00:28:06,599 --> 00:28:09,119
to continue to play their way out. So I can't

529
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,559
put you guys off of Royals bet here in Antonio.

530
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,200
I hope you have fun at the game, and it's

531
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,599
always fun to cash with the home team. As someone

532
00:28:17,599 --> 00:28:20,079
that goes to like a million college basketball games. Then

533
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:24,039
we'll bet against the team, which I've done quite frequently

534
00:28:24,079 --> 00:28:26,119
over the years. Let me tell you something, it's much

535
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,559
more fun when it sets up for you to back

536
00:28:28,559 --> 00:28:31,359
the home team. So bet the Royals tonight, Antonio. I

537
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,039
think it'll it should be a good time. That's the play,

538
00:28:35,079 --> 00:28:37,680
and that's Tokyo Brandon's play for the parlance. So we'll

539
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,799
throw it in their minus one ten just to be fair.

540
00:28:39,839 --> 00:28:43,519
But yeah, I think Travis said he just put in

541
00:28:43,559 --> 00:28:47,359
his bet his second case ticket and MGM didn't move

542
00:28:47,359 --> 00:28:49,880
the line. So it looks like some of these books

543
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,559
are probably going to be asleep at the wheel because

544
00:28:51,559 --> 00:28:54,519
I fired up a local offshort quick and it was

545
00:28:54,559 --> 00:28:59,559
still even money. So you know, again, just see if

546
00:28:59,559 --> 00:29:02,160
you can take it manage of that, all right, Brian,

547
00:29:02,519 --> 00:29:05,480
I'm going to propose a game because we're talking al

548
00:29:05,799 --> 00:29:09,119
playoff race, and I want to bring up your Cleveland

549
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,400
Guardians who have who have called up a guy that

550
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,359
I feel like I've been watching at Triple A for

551
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,559
a long time, even though he hasn't really been there

552
00:29:16,559 --> 00:29:20,599
for a long time, but he's just been very, very consistent,

553
00:29:21,279 --> 00:29:23,160
and that would be Parker Messick, who looks like he

554
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,920
will make his major league debut in the Desert today

555
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,519
against the Diamondbacks and what is now a massive game

556
00:29:29,839 --> 00:29:33,119
for the Guardians because the Mariners continue to lose and

557
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,319
it's really helped teams like the Guardians and the Royal

558
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,880
sort of stay within that three game sort of, you know,

559
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,039
two to three games out of that final wild card spot.

560
00:29:43,079 --> 00:29:46,559
Parker Messik debut, Guardians looking for a series win against

561
00:29:46,599 --> 00:29:48,000
the Dbacks. How are you seeing this one?

562
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, Parker Messik, I haven't had a chance to watch

563
00:29:51,279 --> 00:29:53,119
him as yet, but he comes in. This is the

564
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,599
minor league numbers five and six this year three point

565
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,279
four to seven e ra A one point two two.

566
00:29:59,319 --> 00:30:02,920
We have more than a strikeout an inning. It plays

567
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,359
for the Columbus Clippers, which is the Triple A team,

568
00:30:06,279 --> 00:30:10,359
and last year he played for the Lake County Captains,

569
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:15,279
which is single A plus A eight plus whatever. And

570
00:30:15,279 --> 00:30:18,880
then Akron the rubber Ducks, which to me have the

571
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:23,000
one of the worst, one of the worst nicknames in

572
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,319
Major League Baseball I understand, or in minor league baseball,

573
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,759
I understand it. The Akron the rubber Capitol. I went

574
00:30:28,759 --> 00:30:32,960
to college there. Who's going to be intimidated by rubber Duck?

575
00:30:35,039 --> 00:30:38,279
But he moved two levels last year, so he's moving

576
00:30:38,319 --> 00:30:41,480
on up. He's one of the guys. He's only six foot.

577
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,920
He's a bigger guy, two hundred twenty five pounds, muscular guy,

578
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:47,799
but he's only six foot age twenty four. They're gonna

579
00:30:47,799 --> 00:30:50,440
see what they've got out of him. It doesn't hurt

580
00:30:50,519 --> 00:30:56,319
him here. I don't think pitching in Arizona. Arizona's team

581
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,480
overall has been a little bit disappointing, But if you

582
00:30:59,559 --> 00:31:02,799
watch that game, yesterday. The base running all in this

583
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,079
Arizona team is tremendous. I believe this is a third

584
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:07,960
year in a row they've got the best base running

585
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:12,440
team in baseball. And obviously Corbyn Carroll is terrific. At

586
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:16,480
two triples yesterday, He's set the record I believe for

587
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,000
Arizona on triples in the season. These guys know this

588
00:31:20,079 --> 00:31:22,400
ballpark and they know where to hit it, put it

589
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,920
right in those corners. And I still think the Cleveland

590
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:30,799
outpuilders are still chasing after those balls, taking these weird

591
00:31:30,839 --> 00:31:34,920
bounces off the fence and where it goes. But I

592
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,920
don't want Fat Fox struggled. He's still not putting it

593
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:43,559
all together. It'll be an interesting game. Nine could nine

594
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,880
looks a little a little cheap if you're looking for

595
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,319
a total in this game. I think both teams can

596
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,240
have some success here. Now. Normally I like to play

597
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,839
on teams bringing up a lefty that the opposition doesn't

598
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,960
know about. But I could somewhat concern that this maybe

599
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,200
just be a spot start here for a mess. But

600
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,680
those kind of guys, if they have success, they tend

601
00:32:04,759 --> 00:32:06,839
to play at three or four games in a row.

602
00:32:06,839 --> 00:32:08,480
We've seen a lot of that. That's where Cameron. We

603
00:32:08,559 --> 00:32:11,000
just talked about Cameron for Kansas City. That was one

604
00:32:11,039 --> 00:32:12,519
of the guys that has done that and he's had

605
00:32:12,519 --> 00:32:15,279
a lot of success. So I think the Bats will

606
00:32:15,279 --> 00:32:17,400
have a little bit of advantage here, but don't know

607
00:32:17,519 --> 00:32:20,240
enough about messics to get involved, so I will pass.

608
00:32:21,839 --> 00:32:24,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a couple X factors here that are going

609
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,319
to keep me off of playing this. But I'll tell

610
00:32:26,359 --> 00:32:28,599
you which way I would go if I were to

611
00:32:28,599 --> 00:32:32,039
bet it, and I'll be very brief messic. You know,

612
00:32:32,079 --> 00:32:34,119
when guys get called up, they could go either way.

613
00:32:34,119 --> 00:32:36,359
They could go six shutout innings or they could just

614
00:32:36,359 --> 00:32:38,480
get bombed for eight runs and two innings. So I

615
00:32:38,519 --> 00:32:40,519
don't know which way it's going to go, so I'm

616
00:32:40,559 --> 00:32:44,559
not gonna mess with that side of it. However, we

617
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,839
do know what Brendan Fodd is. He's a pretty good

618
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,839
home pitcher and he's got decent numbers against these Guardians.

619
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,440
Batters and the Guardians, I have them ring twenty six

620
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,920
and hitting current form right now, which is pretty low,

621
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,599
and I got the Diamondbacks hire. If anything, I would

622
00:33:02,599 --> 00:33:06,839
take the Diamondbacks is because they have a so hard

623
00:33:06,839 --> 00:33:09,759
to call Brandon fought a reliable starter, but compared to

624
00:33:09,759 --> 00:33:11,359
a guy who just got called up, I guess he's

625
00:33:11,359 --> 00:33:13,799
more relibed. Too many X factors for me, so I'm

626
00:33:13,839 --> 00:33:14,559
not gonna bet it.

627
00:33:16,599 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, just two things real quick. Everyone on Arizona's team

628
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,359
is fast as hell. So that's also why they're really

629
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,240
good base running team. They are so fast every player

630
00:33:25,559 --> 00:33:29,359
just like a track star. And the other thing is Brian. Yeah.

631
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,279
So they the Akron rubber Ducks have like they tried

632
00:33:32,319 --> 00:33:36,440
to make that aggressive duck tire logo. But the best

633
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,839
part is when they wear the alternate jerseys and it's

634
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,279
literally the yellow rubber duck that you would see in

635
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:44,319
like like the shower, you know, it's like the rubber ducky,

636
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,720
it's like a yellow It's like the one you'd see

637
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,960
that someone would leave on your jeep. Like it's that

638
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,200
rubber duck, which I always find very very funny. Back

639
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,279
to this game. Yeah, Parker good, great point about Parker Messick.

640
00:33:55,319 --> 00:33:57,640
He was he kind of shot up through the organization

641
00:33:57,759 --> 00:34:00,200
last year Lake County Akron. I think you would in

642
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,799
Columbus by the end of the year this year. Has

643
00:34:02,839 --> 00:34:04,960
been at Columbus all year and he's been very consistent,

644
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,039
and I've actually watched him a ton, So I'm going

645
00:34:07,119 --> 00:34:09,480
to talk about Parker Messick for a minute. I was

646
00:34:09,559 --> 00:34:14,199
watching a Columbus broadcast back in July and they kind

647
00:34:14,199 --> 00:34:18,400
of talked about, you know, they kind of talked about,

648
00:34:18,639 --> 00:34:22,880
you know, giving him a day a start off here

649
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:26,159
and there, because I think they the expectation was that

650
00:34:26,199 --> 00:34:28,159
they would get him up at some point this year.

651
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,960
So he got bombed at the end of June, which

652
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,639
is fine. It was like his only bad start of

653
00:34:33,639 --> 00:34:36,599
the year. In July. He only started twice, and then

654
00:34:36,599 --> 00:34:38,800
he pitched in the Futures Game, which is the day

655
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,880
before the All Star Game. Two very good starts. They

656
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,719
skipped him at the end of July since giving him

657
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:49,199
that extra rest, which was basically skip a start, let

658
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:50,719
him pitch in the Futures Game, which was like a

659
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,199
one inning outing. I think he started the Futures Game actually,

660
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,559
so maybe he pitched two and then skipping him after

661
00:34:56,599 --> 00:34:59,320
his start in July. These are his numbers at Triple

662
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:03,719
A in August. He has a two fifteen batting average

663
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,000
against and a zero point nine to eight whip in

664
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,119
his two starts in July, which are kind of on

665
00:35:08,199 --> 00:35:10,719
the end of that where he got the extra rest,

666
00:35:11,119 --> 00:35:14,039
won sixty three batting average against zero point seven to

667
00:35:14,039 --> 00:35:17,440
three whip, and he's averaging over a strikeout per inning.

668
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,679
So not only is I mean, not only has he

669
00:35:20,679 --> 00:35:23,960
even super consistent all year, his full season numbers are

670
00:35:24,079 --> 00:35:26,320
very solid. Like you look at his full season numbers

671
00:35:26,559 --> 00:35:29,559
ERA in the mid threes, one hundred nineteen strikeouts to

672
00:35:29,599 --> 00:35:32,000
ninety eight point two winnings and a one to two whip.

673
00:35:32,039 --> 00:35:36,000
That's very respectable. The fact that they kind of let

674
00:35:36,119 --> 00:35:38,159
him exhale a little bit, they let him go to

675
00:35:38,199 --> 00:35:40,960
the futures game do his thing, gave him a start off,

676
00:35:41,199 --> 00:35:43,880
and I almost feel like it's like sort of given

677
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,400
him a second win. And now he's looked great. And

678
00:35:47,679 --> 00:35:53,559
now none of the Remember Guardians International League Diamondbacks PCL,

679
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:55,840
no one on this Diamondbacks team will have seen him

680
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:57,800
at all. It's not like they've run into him at

681
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,519
the minor league level. So you got a left that

682
00:36:00,519 --> 00:36:03,400
they haven't seen, one that's throwing the ball extremely well.

683
00:36:04,119 --> 00:36:07,000
Brandon fot sucks. I'm sorry. I'm just gonna say it this, like,

684
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,000
I don't know how this guy hasn't gotten his shit

685
00:36:10,119 --> 00:36:11,880
kicked in at the big league level. Yet it makes

686
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:16,800
absolutely no sense. Like the fact that he is still

687
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,679
like been somewhat respectable is crazy to me. When you

688
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,159
look at like the I mean, he's got it expected

689
00:36:23,199 --> 00:36:27,800
ERI close to six for whatever reason, guys are swinging

690
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:29,800
and missing at pitches. It makes no sense. He doesn't

691
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,159
walk anyone, that's fine, but I mean the rate at

692
00:36:33,199 --> 00:36:36,119
which he gets barreled up, he should be getting bombed,

693
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:39,559
especially in this ballpark. Someone make that make sense. One

694
00:36:39,599 --> 00:36:41,840
of the best hitters parks in the league. This guy

695
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:45,280
is all like he is out over the plate constantly.

696
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,000
He should be getting lit up. So I'm gonna throw

697
00:36:48,039 --> 00:36:50,519
Guardians in the parlay right here. I this might end

698
00:36:50,599 --> 00:36:52,239
up making the client card. I'll have to I'll have

699
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,000
to see. I'll have to think about it for the

700
00:36:55,039 --> 00:36:58,559
next twenty thirty minutes while we're finishing the show. But parlay,

701
00:36:58,559 --> 00:37:00,559
it's it's good enough. So what do we got for Guardians?

702
00:37:00,599 --> 00:37:02,679
And they still like even money plus one oh five

703
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:03,360
something like that.

704
00:37:03,159 --> 00:37:06,199
Speaker 2: You can get them at plus one oh three right now.

705
00:37:08,679 --> 00:37:10,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, And that means they've taken a little bit of money,

706
00:37:10,639 --> 00:37:12,320
because I think they were like plus one ten plus

707
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:12,920
one fifteen.

708
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,280
Speaker 2: Earlier at one they were plus one fifteen. I will

709
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:22,199
point out that MESSX are number twelve prospect and this

710
00:37:22,199 --> 00:37:26,159
this year's team for Cleveland. They're known to develop pitchers

711
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:30,199
very well, but most of our best are most of

712
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:35,159
the Guardians better players are from a hitting standpoint. In fact,

713
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,840
they went a lot of hitting in the draft. They're

714
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:42,559
starting to get away from the pitching. So being a

715
00:37:42,639 --> 00:37:49,119
twelve ranked player is not normally anything special. But they

716
00:37:49,119 --> 00:37:52,079
don't have many pitchers in that so he's one of

717
00:37:52,119 --> 00:37:53,519
the better ones that they have available.

718
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I I don't know, like I don't

719
00:37:57,599 --> 00:37:59,719
follow minor leagues all the way down to like rookie

720
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:03,039
ball stuff, but like for for for pitchers that are

721
00:38:03,039 --> 00:38:05,400
either at Double A or Triple A, like he's easily

722
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,000
the top one right now, Like in my for for

723
00:38:08,079 --> 00:38:12,119
anyone like he is their best pitching prospect in that

724
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,039
organization as far as as far as I know, And

725
00:38:15,119 --> 00:38:17,079
I think I like when teams do this. I think

726
00:38:17,119 --> 00:38:19,199
a team like the Guardians, that's kind of in the race.

727
00:38:19,519 --> 00:38:20,960
You bring a guy like this up, he can give

728
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,000
you a jolt. Look at what we'll go. What McLean

729
00:38:23,039 --> 00:38:25,760
did for the Mets this weekend. So yeah, I I

730
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,280
and and bet bats and barrels said, oh, bets and

731
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,760
barrel I bets and barbells. I totally read that wrong.

732
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,760
That's that's a great name. Uh, he says. Fot was

733
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:36,960
getting touched up a lot at the beginning of the season.

734
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,639
He's managed slightly better lately, but he's still hot garbage.

735
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,840
I couldn't have put it better myself. That's well said. So,

736
00:38:43,039 --> 00:38:46,000
uh yeah, we'll throw the Guardians in, uh in the parlay,

737
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,760
and uh, I'm rooting for Brian Leonard. I want his

738
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,840
team to to play their way into this uh playoff picture,

739
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,719
so he's got something to root for in September, which

740
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:58,199
the Mariners are certainly doing their part to make that possible.

741
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,519
I've got burnt on them the last couple days, and

742
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,480
they're letting everyone back in at this point. So uh,

743
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,199
let's move on, let's uh, let's continue, let's grab well,

744
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:11,920
let's talk about that game because it's a day game. Unfortunately,

745
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:15,440
the Phillies killed our parlay yesterday, and you know what's

746
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,440
what's tough about that because I ended up my client

747
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:20,800
play yesterday ended up being Mariners plus one and a half.

748
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:22,880
It dipped all the way to minus one twenty and

749
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:24,840
I couldn't help myself as soon as as soon as

750
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:26,960
Mariners plus one and a half got to minus one twenty,

751
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,679
I had to jump in and Brian Leonard we had

752
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,320
everything we could have wanted. We had. Yeah, So so

753
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,360
if you missed the show yesterday, Brian's parlay leg was

754
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,760
Phillies under four and a half for the game team total.

755
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:42,679
We got to the bottom of the eighth inning, they

756
00:39:42,679 --> 00:39:44,960
were at four runs. The Mariners had all their good

757
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:49,599
bullpen pen arms and they were rested and Matt Brash

758
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,199
puts a guy on and then gives up a five

759
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,079
hundred footer to JT. Real Muno no doubt or and uh.

760
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:58,360
That was super disappointing because I felt like I put

761
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:00,639
myself in a great position to win. We had, we

762
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,239
had everything we wanted, and the Mariners got it shoved

763
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,840
in their face by a Phillies team that just looks

764
00:40:06,039 --> 00:40:09,280
somewhat unstoppable. Right now, I know people are expecting me

765
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:10,920
to be like, oh, like I would just run it

766
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,679
back with the Mariners. I hate I hate this spot

767
00:40:13,679 --> 00:40:15,920
for the Mariners. I don't like the spot at all

768
00:40:16,119 --> 00:40:18,840
because they had the spot. They had the setup last

769
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,320
night that they could have like that was the setup

770
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,360
you want four for a game. They survived Christopher Sanchez,

771
00:40:24,519 --> 00:40:26,840
they had the bullpen ready to go, and they lost.

772
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,440
That's gonna be tough to come back from. I don't

773
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,960
think I could take the Mariners here. But what about Jesus,

774
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:34,719
do you want to go the other way with the Phillies.

775
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 2: Billy had a four to one lead in the seventh,

776
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:41,119
and if they don't, if they don't give up those

777
00:40:41,119 --> 00:40:44,679
three runs in the I believe it was the eighth,

778
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,800
then I think they just cruised through because they don't

779
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:50,559
They're not going to bat in the ninth, So you

780
00:40:50,639 --> 00:40:52,760
got to go through the seventh and eighth inning. By

781
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,760
that time, they had a sizeable lead, and I thought

782
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:57,360
we were feeling pretty good. But that one wants to

783
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,239
give up those three runs and then the offense has

784
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,360
to come back, and I knew we were screwed at

785
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,679
that point. But you got Castillo against the Zardo Zardo,

786
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:08,119
the lefty Philadelphia right here. I a one fifty favorite,

787
00:41:08,199 --> 00:41:11,360
a little bit higher in some of the more public

788
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:16,679
bet MGM type of Caesar's type of places. You're looking

789
00:41:16,679 --> 00:41:18,840
at eight and a half to the over nine to

790
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,599
the under. So yes, Steve Hesik was a eight point

791
00:41:21,639 --> 00:41:27,960
seventy five Luis Castillo three point four eighty ra A

792
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,760
four point one five expected one point two two whip.

793
00:41:32,039 --> 00:41:36,320
His extension first percentile part hit rate eighth percentile bearl

794
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:39,239
rdy eighteenth. Yet since he pitched in a really good

795
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,119
home pitching part, he hasn't gotten hurt too bad in

796
00:41:42,159 --> 00:41:45,760
that regard. Still throws as four seamer a lot, basically

797
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:50,639
at league average forty seven percent of the time. He's

798
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:54,199
been sort of like the Toronto pitcher in that we

799
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:57,360
keep waiting for the shoot to drop the other way,

800
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:03,440
and they're they're both hanging on there. Lozardo four point

801
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,119
two one ERA, three point five six expected. So he's

802
00:42:07,159 --> 00:42:09,079
had some blow ups this year, no doubt about it.

803
00:42:09,119 --> 00:42:11,880
But when he's on, he's been excellent. He's also his

804
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:14,840
weakness is the extension. He's only six ft six percent

805
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:20,280
excuse me, six percentile extension, but he's averaging really nice

806
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:23,039
strikeout numbers one hundred and fifty eight strikeouts, one hundred

807
00:42:23,039 --> 00:42:26,079
and thirty nine innings. His whip is higher. This Year's

808
00:42:26,199 --> 00:42:28,639
lifetime in seven seasons is one point two seven. It's

809
00:42:28,679 --> 00:42:31,360
never been that great. This year's one point three four.

810
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:34,480
Like I said, when he's been good, he's been really good.

811
00:42:34,519 --> 00:42:38,920
When he's been bad, he struggled a little bit here.

812
00:42:39,159 --> 00:42:41,920
I like the Philly side a little bit. I think

813
00:42:42,119 --> 00:42:45,840
I agree. Yesterday was the day that I think Seattle

814
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,400
was a good bet if you were looking to play that. Luckily,

815
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:53,079
I didn't play him on the side. But I like

816
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:56,760
Philadelphia here, and as you mentioned, they're playing a really

817
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:59,480
good ball. I would think as the day goes on,

818
00:43:00,159 --> 00:43:03,239
this line goes higher. It opened one thirty five and

819
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,599
now I'm standing uppar to one fifty five of some places.

820
00:43:05,599 --> 00:43:09,039
So if you like Philadelphia, you get them early, because

821
00:43:09,079 --> 00:43:10,800
I think that line will continue to go up.

822
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:18,079
Speaker 3: I like I kind of like the over team total

823
00:43:18,119 --> 00:43:20,639
over for either one of these teams. The weird thing

824
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,920
is Phillies team total team total is four and a half,

825
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:27,119
Seattle's is three and a half, but the game total

826
00:43:27,159 --> 00:43:30,800
is nine, so something doesn't add up. But I like

827
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:34,239
both of these teams to go over. Actually, and you

828
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:38,639
know Lozardo Castillo both solid pictures, but against the batters

829
00:43:38,639 --> 00:43:41,880
they're facing today, they both have ops's over nine hundred

830
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:47,719
and let's see Lozardo five plus the Ara at home,

831
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:52,280
Castillo four plus Era on the road. I think both

832
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,039
of these pictures are going to get hit a little

833
00:43:54,039 --> 00:43:58,320
bit today. Which one's gonna get hit more? I have

834
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,119
Phillies hitting a little better. I would like to take

835
00:44:01,119 --> 00:44:02,880
the Phillies team total over if it was three and

836
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,800
a half, but it's four and a half and nine

837
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:08,760
for a game total to me seems too high, so

838
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:11,000
I guess I guess if I were to play it,

839
00:44:11,039 --> 00:44:14,559
I would take Seattle's team total over. One other note

840
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:19,320
to mention is Louis Castillo is one of the least

841
00:44:19,559 --> 00:44:23,599
walking pictures, so he's the opposite of a chronic walker.

842
00:44:23,679 --> 00:44:26,840
He is a non chronic walker, and Philly doesn't really

843
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:29,159
walk that much, only two point two times per game.

844
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:32,400
So if you can get Castills under walks one and

845
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,000
a half, I think that would be a decent play

846
00:44:34,039 --> 00:44:34,400
as well.

847
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, Philly has has shown no interest in trying to

848
00:44:40,519 --> 00:44:41,840
work counts in this series.

849
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:42,800
Speaker 3: They have been none.

850
00:44:43,079 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 1: I mean they have been on every offering like the Swingers.

851
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,559
They were swinging at everything that Glogi Gilbert was throwing

852
00:44:51,639 --> 00:44:55,519
up there on Monday and then yesterday, Yeah, like they

853
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,239
that's a team right now that is just locked in.

854
00:45:00,119 --> 00:45:02,719
Everyone in that line. It is locked in great at that.

855
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,400
I mean it's like Shore, We're so relentless and every

856
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:07,519
every at that like you just can't get him out.

857
00:45:08,199 --> 00:45:11,400
You know. I still again, I still I would make

858
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:13,960
that bet on the Mariners plus one and a half

859
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,480
at the price I got it at minus one twenty

860
00:45:16,519 --> 00:45:19,039
ten times out of ten the result didn't work out

861
00:45:19,039 --> 00:45:22,559
for me. I would make that that. I have no

862
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,159
problem with the bet I made yesterday. I'd make it again.

863
00:45:25,559 --> 00:45:27,360
I gotta be honest. I woke up this morning and

864
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:30,000
I was like, are the books gonna like tempt me

865
00:45:30,079 --> 00:45:33,199
to take the Mariners again on the plus one and

866
00:45:33,199 --> 00:45:36,039
a half. I could not believe where that line opened.

867
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:39,119
Brian was right, you could have got Philly. Like I

868
00:45:39,159 --> 00:45:41,159
had to like refresh my screen. I had to check

869
00:45:41,199 --> 00:45:43,599
like three other books quickly when there was a Philly

870
00:45:43,639 --> 00:45:45,599
minus one thirty five, because I was like, no, no

871
00:45:45,679 --> 00:45:49,320
way that they could be like that competitively priced after

872
00:45:49,559 --> 00:45:51,280
a blowout win in the first game of the series

873
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,719
and then winning yesterday, But sure enough it was. So

874
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,400
it doesn't surprise me in the least bit that Philly's

875
00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:01,119
taken some money. You know, are gonna keep taking money,

876
00:46:01,119 --> 00:46:03,079
by the way, if you if you like Philly, and

877
00:46:03,079 --> 00:46:05,599
it's like minus one forty eight right now, I think

878
00:46:05,639 --> 00:46:07,519
this is gonna end up going off like minus one

879
00:46:07,639 --> 00:46:10,440
seventy because the Phillies have taken money every game of

880
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:12,960
this series, and it's now been right the first two games.

881
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:15,679
So you should see the Phillies take money throughout the day.

882
00:46:16,039 --> 00:46:18,760
So the more you wait, if you're gonna bet the Phillies,

883
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,079
it has to be now. The thing is, I don't

884
00:46:21,079 --> 00:46:23,079
think it's gonna be like yesterday where the Mariners are

885
00:46:23,079 --> 00:46:26,280
gonna get into range to play, and I don't really

886
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,320
want any piece of Castillo. I saw some upside with

887
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:33,280
Bryce Miller yesterday. Castillo doesn't really offer that same upside.

888
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:36,079
He's been around forever, the Phillies have seen him, but

889
00:46:36,599 --> 00:46:39,039
there's a there's a much bigger book on him. At

890
00:46:39,039 --> 00:46:42,599
this point, I would be you know, I'm not saying

891
00:46:42,639 --> 00:46:45,519
the Mariners can't generate a little offense, but I would.

892
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,119
This just doesn't feel like the spot to go to

893
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:51,599
to go to war with Castillo, so pass. But I

894
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,079
can't really talk you off Phillies if that's how you

895
00:46:54,079 --> 00:46:56,199
want to play it. Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, I.

896
00:46:56,159 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 2: Just want to go to my game for my parlats use. Yeah,

897
00:47:00,159 --> 00:47:03,199
you're getting them out already, and we're getting a little

898
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:07,639
bit shorter on time. This is what I would call

899
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,800
I've been doing this for forty five years. I grew

900
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:14,000
up going to high school with Phil Steele, who runs

901
00:47:14,039 --> 00:47:16,440
North Coast Sports puts off the Power Sweet newsletters. So

902
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,480
I've always been into sports gaming, even when i was

903
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:24,280
a teenager. So I've been releasing plays for about forty

904
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,800
five years. This is a game that I've seen happen

905
00:47:28,199 --> 00:47:31,719
so many times over the years, and I've learned to

906
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:34,119
spot it. And that's going to be the Chicago White

907
00:47:34,119 --> 00:47:38,440
Sox at the Atlanta Braves. First off, we've got This

908
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:41,079
is the third and final game of the series. Both

909
00:47:41,119 --> 00:47:44,239
teams will be off tomorrow, so this is a getaway

910
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:48,320
game for both these teams, and they're getting away and

911
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,440
they get to relax and take a day off. That

912
00:47:51,519 --> 00:47:55,199
means a lot this time of year. So not only that,

913
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:57,519
but the last two days there's been twenty one and

914
00:47:57,639 --> 00:48:01,400
twenty three runs scored in these games. So the offenses

915
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:05,760
is Marco would say, would be fat and sassy, whereas

916
00:48:06,159 --> 00:48:10,480
the pitching staffs are really in a situation where they've

917
00:48:10,519 --> 00:48:12,719
been used up a little bit and we need some

918
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,960
length out of the starters. The great news is Martine

919
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:19,880
Perez is on the mound for the White Sox. He

920
00:48:20,199 --> 00:48:23,239
going in the season. I followed the White Sox a

921
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,000
lot in the preseason. He was the team leader in

922
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:30,519
the dugout from the pitchers. He's a veteran, he's been

923
00:48:30,559 --> 00:48:33,519
around a long time. He took over those responsibilities for

924
00:48:33,559 --> 00:48:37,800
the White Sox in the preseason and obviously he's had

925
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:40,880
injuries and this is his first game back now coming

926
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:43,079
back here. I think that's going to be an advantage

927
00:48:43,119 --> 00:48:45,480
for a White Sox team that we got some good

928
00:48:45,559 --> 00:48:48,000
value out of the second half of the season early on,

929
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:50,559
but the pitching has really struggled as of late. I

930
00:48:50,599 --> 00:48:53,320
think that's going to be a big help to them.

931
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:56,719
He'll go out there and he'll give them as much

932
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:59,039
as he can. He'll throw eighty eighty pitches if he

933
00:48:59,079 --> 00:49:04,519
can and shortened the game. Hirstin and Walsh Waldrip he's

934
00:49:04,599 --> 00:49:06,960
We've heard about him for a while. He's a guy

935
00:49:07,039 --> 00:49:11,400
that's really Atlanta. He's the future of Atlanta's pitchers a

936
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:14,440
lot because all the other ones are hurt. But I

937
00:49:14,519 --> 00:49:17,159
watched that game against Cleveland the other day and he

938
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:21,320
was amazing. He had those Cleveland bats flailing, a team

939
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,039
that usually walks pretty well. They didn't have a clue

940
00:49:24,039 --> 00:49:27,880
against him. And I from what I had heard in

941
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:30,960
the in the from the announcers, that's been the way

942
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:35,000
he has been. So the way the Chicago bats or

943
00:49:35,159 --> 00:49:37,239
coming off of a couple of really good days. Now

944
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,239
they're going to face him. That's not something they're looking

945
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:42,320
forward to. I like this game to go under. Now

946
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:44,320
the total is nine, it's going to be minus one

947
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:48,840
ten on the under, and you wonder why this line

948
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,199
is so low after they've scored twenty one to twenty

949
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:55,039
three runs the last two days. That's the experience playing here.

950
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:57,719
They could end up scoring a lot of runs again.

951
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,159
But I like the under nine here teams with the

952
00:50:01,199 --> 00:50:04,840
super guys on the mound, and with the day off tomorrow,

953
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,320
I think this is a get up there, swinging the

954
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:09,519
first pitch kind of game and get this over with.

955
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:12,599
The other team is going to the playoffs. This is

956
00:50:12,679 --> 00:50:14,320
a game I really like. And by the way, I

957
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:17,880
do have a five percent up today. We've won ten

958
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:21,960
is it ten in the last eleven days now starting

959
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:23,719
to run into each other, but we've been very good

960
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,760
eighty percent on our four percent in the higher plays

961
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:29,760
in the month of August. I love this play. It's

962
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:32,639
not this one, it's something else, but I love this play.

963
00:50:32,679 --> 00:50:34,079
It's a five percent, and you can pick that up

964
00:50:34,159 --> 00:50:34,800
right now.

965
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 3: Grab Brian's five percent. Eighty percent is unreal. I mean,

966
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:43,199
anyone who does capping for a living knows that if

967
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:46,400
you're if you're fifty seven percent or higher, that's unreal.

968
00:50:46,599 --> 00:50:51,000
So eighty percent is just unheard of. That's great. I'm

969
00:50:51,039 --> 00:50:52,719
on a ten and oer run in MLB, and I

970
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:56,559
have my MLB play up today. Adam, if he doesn't already,

971
00:50:56,599 --> 00:50:58,760
will have a play up, and we all put free

972
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:02,119
plays out too. In fact, we just talked requires us

973
00:51:02,119 --> 00:51:03,320
to put a free play out when we have a

974
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:05,719
five percent, So I guarantee you Brian has a free

975
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:08,360
play up. So go to our pages today and take

976
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:12,360
a look at what we have to offer regarding this game. Uh,

977
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:17,679
Atlanta man, since they basically had no chance to make

978
00:51:17,679 --> 00:51:20,679
the playoffs, they went really cold, but now they're on fire.

979
00:51:21,039 --> 00:51:23,880
You know this is Baseball is just such a marathon.

980
00:51:24,079 --> 00:51:26,519
Teams go up, they go down, they go up, they

981
00:51:26,519 --> 00:51:29,920
go down. Atlanta's bats are on fire right now, but

982
00:51:30,039 --> 00:51:33,480
like Brian said, it's a getaway day. Could be an under.

983
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:37,519
But I like Atlanta's team total over actually because Martin

984
00:51:37,639 --> 00:51:39,960
Perez is a thirty four year old guy who just

985
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:42,960
doesn't have his stuff anymore. Not a good pitcher. I

986
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,679
didn't even like him when he was good. His numbers

987
00:51:45,679 --> 00:51:48,159
look okay, a three oh nine ERA and a one

988
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:51,679
two nine whip, so that's not bad. But against these

989
00:51:51,679 --> 00:51:54,400
Atlanta batters got a three twenty two average against in

990
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:57,320
a nine to thirty four OPS, which is almost two

991
00:51:57,400 --> 00:52:03,280
hundred points over what I consider acceptable. Not a very

992
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,079
good picture. I don't like him, and I think Atlanta

993
00:52:06,199 --> 00:52:10,079
will hit him. However, there is this weird thing in

994
00:52:10,119 --> 00:52:13,719
baseball where when teams explode for runs, it seems like

995
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:17,599
the next day they don't. They've ran out of runs

996
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:20,760
or something, So that could be the case here. If

997
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:22,639
I were to bet it, I'd take Atlanta's team total

998
00:52:22,679 --> 00:52:26,440
bit given the explosion these two teams have had, I

999
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:27,800
would be wary of betting it.

1000
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,639
Speaker 1: You know, it's hard to I guess you know what

1001
00:52:33,679 --> 00:52:35,840
you're gonna get from Pereeds. I mean, he is a veteran.

1002
00:52:36,039 --> 00:52:38,079
He always says, let's put it this way. Anytime I

1003
00:52:38,079 --> 00:52:41,760
bet against Martin Perez, he's so young, Okay, so if

1004
00:52:41,760 --> 00:52:44,320
I bet against him, he's gonna go six scoreless. But

1005
00:52:44,639 --> 00:52:47,719
you know, he made a couple of rehabs starts. Nothing

1006
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:51,159
special was okay against the Tigers last week. So I

1007
00:52:51,199 --> 00:52:53,880
believe that was his first outing of the season, or

1008
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:57,440
I'm sorry, his first outing since April. First back off

1009
00:52:57,440 --> 00:53:00,719
the IL, three and a third, one run, three hits

1010
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:04,480
for strikeouts. That's not bad. Uh. But I'm with Brian

1011
00:53:04,559 --> 00:53:08,199
on the under because Hurston Waldram very might be like

1012
00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:10,920
he might be an ace like he's so let me

1013
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:13,159
just talk about him for a second. He's a college guy,

1014
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:16,719
so he he came, he went to Florida and he

1015
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:18,639
was the first round draft pick for the Braves in

1016
00:53:18,639 --> 00:53:22,639
twenty twenty three. And the Braves, the Braves, for whatever reason,

1017
00:53:22,679 --> 00:53:24,519
have done this a lot lately. Go look at like

1018
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:28,079
Didier Frentez, a J. Smith Shaw or they really like

1019
00:53:28,159 --> 00:53:32,039
to like you know, rush their guys up and they

1020
00:53:32,079 --> 00:53:34,960
almost always have to like backtrack a little bit. So uh,

1021
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:36,840
if you look at him twenty twenty three, he actually

1022
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:39,599
made it to Triple A first start. Last year, he

1023
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:43,760
was he started back in I think it was like

1024
00:53:44,119 --> 00:53:48,000
a or yeah, like low A at some point made

1025
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:49,400
it all the way to the big leagues in twenty

1026
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:51,880
twenty four. I watched a lot of them at Triple

1027
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:53,840
A last year. That was probably jumping the gun a

1028
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:55,880
little bit. But if you remember back to last year,

1029
00:53:56,039 --> 00:53:59,119
the Braves were pretty desperate at times for starting pitching.

1030
00:53:59,199 --> 00:54:03,440
Like Smith got hurt, there was another one that got hurt.

1031
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:05,559
Like they were kind of you know, it was more

1032
00:54:05,599 --> 00:54:10,360
of a need based thing, uh. For For for Waldrup,

1033
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:13,760
it's completely clicked for him the second half of the season.

1034
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:16,039
He struggled at Triple A the first half of the

1035
00:54:16,119 --> 00:54:19,280
year and really the second half it is it is

1036
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:22,800
just I mean, he's twenty three, right, He's he's he's

1037
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:26,559
a twenty three year old kid, and yeah, I think

1038
00:54:26,559 --> 00:54:30,079
he just turned he's just turned twenty three. UH in

1039
00:54:30,199 --> 00:54:33,679
July at Triple A zero point seventy eight e ra

1040
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,320
a a one oh nine whip a one seventy six

1041
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:41,599
batting average against UH about a strikeout per inning. Since

1042
00:54:41,599 --> 00:54:44,639
he's been called up, which was August second, so he recalled.

1043
00:54:44,639 --> 00:54:46,480
It wasn't his first. You know, he was called up

1044
00:54:46,559 --> 00:54:50,039
last year for the Braves. UH one oh two e

1045
00:54:50,159 --> 00:54:54,639
ra a strikeout par inning one fifty batting average against

1046
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:57,760
zero point seventy nine whip. Would would not at all

1047
00:54:57,800 --> 00:55:01,239
surprise me if if he's so of wipes them out today.

1048
00:55:02,199 --> 00:55:05,199
He remember, he's a first rounder, so they're they're telling

1049
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:07,800
you that they they saw that kind of upside in

1050
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:10,039
him when they drafted him. You don't get drafted in

1051
00:55:10,039 --> 00:55:13,199
the first round unless you're unless you show that ace

1052
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:16,920
type upside. And as of like July first, it's just

1053
00:55:17,039 --> 00:55:20,199
clicked for him. He's he's figured out how to command

1054
00:55:20,199 --> 00:55:23,880
his pitches and he has been awesome. So yeah, I

1055
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:27,239
can't argue with backing law drip in any capacity. And

1056
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:29,400
of course, if you like the under and you can

1057
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:32,599
get a respectable outing from Perez, then I don't like.

1058
00:55:32,679 --> 00:55:34,480
I don't mind that at all. So Brian Leonard, I'm

1059
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:36,400
with you. I think I think under makes a lot

1060
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:39,760
of sense here. What is that uh minus one ten

1061
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:40,760
on the under nine.

1062
00:55:40,679 --> 00:55:42,800
Speaker 2: One on the nine. I do want to point out

1063
00:55:43,079 --> 00:55:46,159
ESPN Bets got the the under nine and a half

1064
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:51,400
minus one thirty. Don't play that. The going from nine

1065
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:53,360
to nine and a half is not worth twenty cents.

1066
00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:57,679
So even though it's you look like you're getting up

1067
00:55:57,760 --> 00:56:00,400
an extra half. If you've watched Steve Marri I'll talk

1068
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:03,639
about it in the past, he really lets you know

1069
00:56:03,679 --> 00:56:06,360
that the odd numbers are much more important than the

1070
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:11,800
even numbers in baseball when you're laying laying numbers on totals. So, yeah,

1071
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:13,760
you're already getting the nine. So it could be four

1072
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:15,480
to four in the ninth inning and before running the

1073
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:18,719
bottom of the ninth and you got you still get

1074
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:20,760
a push out of that. It's not it's not worth

1075
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:22,440
it to pay that extra twenty cents.

1076
00:56:23,679 --> 00:56:26,159
Speaker 1: All right, we have the parlay locked in. I will

1077
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:28,400
I will recap it at the end of the show.

1078
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:30,719
Let's let's get one more quick one in because I

1079
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:32,559
feel like this is not going to take us that

1080
00:56:32,639 --> 00:56:34,760
long to talk about this game. But we've been right

1081
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:39,000
about this game both days so far. Let's talk Dodgers Rockies.

1082
00:56:39,079 --> 00:56:41,559
So we were right about the Rockies on Monday with

1083
00:56:41,639 --> 00:56:46,599
that plus three. Last night, Brian, we pointed out that

1084
00:56:46,679 --> 00:56:48,960
team total being seven and a half. I think they

1085
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:52,559
had seven in like the first two or three innings

1086
00:56:52,559 --> 00:56:56,920
of that game, and pretty much any Dodgers bet got there.

1087
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:58,960
I just want to make Yeah, it was an eleven

1088
00:56:59,000 --> 00:57:02,400
four final, but even of those runs were scored in

1089
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:05,320
the first three innings, so team total ended up getting

1090
00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:08,880
there easily. Eleven runs for the Dodgers on eighteen hits.

1091
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:13,039
Dodgers Rockies again from Korsfield today, it's gonna be Otani

1092
00:57:13,079 --> 00:57:16,360
to start things off for the Dodgers and Tanner Gordon,

1093
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:19,920
who is another one in the line. Basically the Rockies

1094
00:57:19,960 --> 00:57:22,920
hole rotation right now as an eight era and they're

1095
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:25,440
guys that aren't even good at Triple A and they're

1096
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:28,360
getting they're really just getting service time up there. It's

1097
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:30,360
truly incredible to see what they run out there on

1098
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:34,079
the daily basis. Today it's Tanner Gordon. So any value

1099
00:57:34,199 --> 00:57:36,119
or have we sucked the value out of this series

1100
00:57:36,119 --> 00:57:36,800
at this point?

1101
00:57:37,199 --> 00:57:40,960
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, if you've looked the games in

1102
00:57:40,960 --> 00:57:44,679
his carilla, Otani has pitched, he hasn't hit quite so well,

1103
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:47,880
So keep out of mind if you're looking to play

1104
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:52,559
Otani props. He is much better when he doesn't have

1105
00:57:52,599 --> 00:57:55,639
to pitch obviously makes a lot of sense. Pitching is

1106
00:57:55,679 --> 00:57:59,360
your main responsibility, Tannor Gordon. He's in the ninety fourth

1107
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:03,800
percent walk great, there you go is in two years

1108
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:06,760
he's got a four point four walk rate. That's the

1109
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:10,280
only thing he's even close to be good at. Spected

1110
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:13,320
the ra third percent. I expect the batting average first,

1111
00:58:13,639 --> 00:58:17,360
with rate first, drike out percent third. In his career,

1112
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:21,079
he comes in with an eight point three ERA one

1113
00:58:21,159 --> 00:58:24,920
point seventy six whip going against these Dodgers. If the

1114
00:58:25,039 --> 00:58:29,480
Dodgers want to want to hit them, they can hit them.

1115
00:58:30,079 --> 00:58:33,840
And that is my concern here in that regard. But

1116
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:38,199
do I want to lay three dollars in some places

1117
00:58:38,199 --> 00:58:44,400
even higher three twenty on Otani? Probably not. I think

1118
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:47,000
it's one of those games that the Dodgers get enough

1119
00:58:47,079 --> 00:58:52,280
runs and they let Otani go, you know, four. There's

1120
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:54,639
been talking about five innings. We'll see if that goes.

1121
00:58:55,039 --> 00:58:58,519
If against these batters he could go five innings. But

1122
00:58:58,679 --> 00:59:00,320
the rest of the bullpen that gets some of the

1123
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:04,159
guys in the in the branch guys, your sixth seventh,

1124
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:08,119
fIF sixth seventh, and eighth inning guys. I would see

1125
00:59:08,119 --> 00:59:11,320
those going. I don't see a situation where you know

1126
00:59:11,639 --> 00:59:13,760
this game is going to be that close, maybe play

1127
00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:15,639
the Dodgers minus one and a half because you get

1128
00:59:15,639 --> 00:59:19,079
in the full nine innings out of them. But yeah,

1129
00:59:19,119 --> 00:59:21,079
they should be able to hit Gordon. It all depends

1130
00:59:21,119 --> 00:59:23,880
on how it is. And we've talked about the Dodgers

1131
00:59:23,920 --> 00:59:25,960
all season long. There's certain games they get up for,

1132
00:59:26,079 --> 00:59:28,800
certain games they don't, so it makes it tough to

1133
00:59:28,800 --> 00:59:31,719
bet them. You know, a big number like we're going

1134
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:34,199
to have today, so slightainly with the Dodgers, maybe it

1135
00:59:34,239 --> 00:59:36,079
might US one and a half. That's about it for me.

1136
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:38,000
Speaker 1: Nner.

1137
00:59:38,119 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 3: Gordon has allowed twenty six earned runs in his last

1138
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:45,320
four starts, and if you think that's because of the

1139
00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:49,000
air in Colorado, two of those starts were on the road.

1140
00:59:49,199 --> 00:59:52,039
Granted they were against really good hitting teams like the

1141
00:59:52,079 --> 00:59:56,119
Diamondbacks and the Blue Jays, but the Dodgers are pretty

1142
00:59:56,119 --> 01:00:01,800
good hitting team as well. I think I like how

1143
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:05,239
Otani has been pitching. You know, you can't bet minus

1144
01:00:05,239 --> 01:00:08,199
three hundred. We can't as professional kappers advise you to

1145
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:13,679
do that. But if you have a book where they

1146
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:18,480
allow you to al numbers, you know, in the first

1147
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:21,599
five innings, Dodgers minus one is only minus one sixty.

1148
01:00:21,639 --> 01:00:26,599
I think that's huge value Dodgers minus one in the

1149
01:00:26,639 --> 01:00:29,920
first five innings if they if they're leading by one

1150
01:00:30,039 --> 01:00:33,519
after five innings, it's a push. There's zero risk to

1151
01:00:33,599 --> 01:00:36,599
take that. Uh and if they're leading by two Tanner

1152
01:00:36,639 --> 01:00:39,719
Gordon I have him ranked thirty out of thirty on

1153
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:42,039
a curve of thirty. He's the worst pitcher in MLB

1154
01:00:43,039 --> 01:00:47,239
according to my numbers, he's the worst, and Otani has been.

1155
01:00:47,639 --> 01:00:49,840
He had a rough outing last time, but I think

1156
01:00:49,880 --> 01:00:53,400
Otani they're gonna let him go five innings, and he's

1157
01:00:53,400 --> 01:00:56,199
a pretty good pitcher. If you watch his pitches. He's

1158
01:00:56,199 --> 01:00:59,000
got a lot of movement on his on his fastballs,

1159
01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:03,880
and his bat does tend to slip a little when

1160
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:07,199
he's pitching, but that's understandable. I mean, you're doing double duty.

1161
01:01:07,679 --> 01:01:10,360
I mean, it's so taxing on on on your body.

1162
01:01:11,159 --> 01:01:13,559
But I think Dodgers minus one in the first five

1163
01:01:13,679 --> 01:01:17,559
is well, nothing's easy money. But I think I think

1164
01:01:17,840 --> 01:01:20,320
I'm surprised it's only minus one sixties, So that would

1165
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:21,480
be how I would go on that.

1166
01:01:23,440 --> 01:01:26,880
Speaker 1: I'm not a big props guy, but I do think

1167
01:01:26,920 --> 01:01:29,239
there might be a way to UH to play some

1168
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:33,360
Dodgers props here. So the way that the like market,

1169
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:35,360
I feel like you know you're not it's hard to

1170
01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:38,840
find value Dodgers props over in a game like this

1171
01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:40,840
there most of them are going to be juiced up.

1172
01:01:41,119 --> 01:01:43,119
But I do think that the guys that tend to

1173
01:01:43,159 --> 01:01:45,960
get more sort of juiced when you when you're talking

1174
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:48,480
about Dodgers props are going to be oh Tani and

1175
01:01:48,519 --> 01:01:50,760
Brian just gave you a good reason why to avoid him.

1176
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:55,960
He's pitching today, Freddy Breman because he's he's arguably the

1177
01:01:56,000 --> 01:01:58,480
best player on the team, or you know, he's hitting third,

1178
01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:01,880
and because they're left hand hitters against a right handed pitcher.

1179
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:05,920
But Tanner Gordon splits are actually reverse like at least

1180
01:02:05,920 --> 01:02:09,400
this season, and the sample is roughly the same. UH.

1181
01:02:09,559 --> 01:02:12,719
Left and right. Right handed hitters against Tanner Gordon this

1182
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:16,480
year are hitting four twenty three with a one with

1183
01:02:16,559 --> 01:02:21,679
an over one thousand ops. So maybe maybe maybe you

1184
01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:24,079
you can find a decent way to bet like a

1185
01:02:24,159 --> 01:02:26,360
Will Smith prop if he's in the lineup, or like

1186
01:02:26,400 --> 01:02:29,119
a Taoskar prop, or maybe like go down the list

1187
01:02:29,159 --> 01:02:31,559
a little bit with a right handed batter that's not

1188
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:36,199
as in demand from a prop standpoint, because the runs

1189
01:02:36,239 --> 01:02:38,079
are probably gonna come. You're probably still gonna get your

1190
01:02:38,079 --> 01:02:40,000
five at bats, like whether they're batt in fifth or

1191
01:02:40,039 --> 01:02:42,440
six in the lineup. So I would say, find a

1192
01:02:42,519 --> 01:02:45,840
right handed hitter that maybe has good splits against right

1193
01:02:45,880 --> 01:02:49,079
handed pitching, that isn't one of the top guys in

1194
01:02:49,119 --> 01:02:51,559
this Dodgers order, and maybe play some props with them,

1195
01:02:51,599 --> 01:02:53,840
because they got to give you prop value somewhere. If

1196
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:55,960
they're gonna, you know, if if if the value, if

1197
01:02:55,960 --> 01:02:59,719
they're gonna make Otani and Freeman this they're somewhere down,

1198
01:02:59,760 --> 01:03:02,239
then you're gonna have a guy that has a little

1199
01:03:02,239 --> 01:03:05,119
bit of value. So like bets A Marble says, maybe

1200
01:03:05,119 --> 01:03:07,960
Andy Pa has total basis, Yeah, something like that. But

1201
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:10,480
he is getting lit up by right handed hitters, and

1202
01:03:10,480 --> 01:03:13,119
I don't think that's gonna be like totally known because

1203
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:16,079
most people think, oh, right handed pitcher, he's terrible. Let's

1204
01:03:16,079 --> 01:03:19,559
put the lefties in. But righty's have tagged Tanner Gordon

1205
01:03:19,599 --> 01:03:23,760
this year, So just something to think about. All right,

1206
01:03:23,840 --> 01:03:27,679
we have reached the end of the show. We have

1207
01:03:27,800 --> 01:03:30,840
the three teamer plus six forty seven today. That's exciting.

1208
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:32,840
Let's see if we can get one of these bigger ones.

1209
01:03:33,480 --> 01:03:36,880
Pretty much everything minus one ten are better. We've got Tokyo,

1210
01:03:36,920 --> 01:03:40,760
Brandon Royal's minus one ten. I'm gonna go with the

1211
01:03:40,760 --> 01:03:44,000
Guardians plus one oh three, and then we've got Brian Leonard.

1212
01:03:44,039 --> 01:03:47,960
He's gonna go white Sox Braves under nine comes out.

1213
01:03:48,039 --> 01:03:51,239
Iran it quickly plus six forty seven. So we cashed

1214
01:03:51,239 --> 01:03:54,000
the parlay on Monday. We were an inning away from

1215
01:03:54,039 --> 01:03:56,239
getting it yesterday, so we didn't get it yesterday, but

1216
01:03:56,280 --> 01:03:59,119
hopefully we can come back and cash here TV. Do

1217
01:03:59,159 --> 01:04:01,320
you want to direct the Do you want to do

1218
01:04:01,360 --> 01:04:03,360
one more quick promo before we get out of here?

1219
01:04:04,519 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian's got a five percenter. I have an MLB out, Adam.

1220
01:04:08,000 --> 01:04:09,199
Do you have anything out yet?

1221
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:12,599
Speaker 1: No, but I'll put something out at some point this listen.

1222
01:04:12,639 --> 01:04:16,280
I think I'm still one. Over the last thirty days,

1223
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:18,760
I've been really hot, but I lost my five percenter

1224
01:04:18,800 --> 01:04:22,039
on Monday. I split yesterday in a game that I

1225
01:04:22,079 --> 01:04:23,639
went one and won. I felt like I should have

1226
01:04:23,639 --> 01:04:25,760
went to and oh. So I think the best I

1227
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:28,480
think your best move is to ride Brian on on

1228
01:04:28,559 --> 01:04:31,079
that streak with his big play so yeah, I mean,

1229
01:04:31,119 --> 01:04:33,440
I'll have something up, but if you're going to buy something,

1230
01:04:33,480 --> 01:04:35,480
I think you should buy his five percenter.

1231
01:04:35,639 --> 01:04:39,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, and guarantee Brian has a free play up,

1232
01:04:39,519 --> 01:04:41,519
and I guarantee you I have a free play up,

1233
01:04:41,519 --> 01:04:43,960
and I guarantee you Adam will have a free play up.

1234
01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:47,239
And a lot of people complain that we don't give

1235
01:04:47,280 --> 01:04:48,960
out picks on this show, but you know what this

1236
01:04:49,039 --> 01:04:52,239
show is about giving knowledge, And if you can't make

1237
01:04:53,079 --> 01:04:56,039
picks out of the information we've given you, then I

1238
01:04:56,079 --> 01:04:58,719
don't think I can help you. So go to our

1239
01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:00,880
pages at wager Talk take the ten seconds to see

1240
01:05:00,920 --> 01:05:01,599
what we're offering.

1241
01:05:02,679 --> 01:05:04,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, we also just gave three picks that are minus

1242
01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:06,239
one ten or better. So I don't know what people

1243
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:08,519
are talking about. And I'm gonna recap one more time.

1244
01:05:08,920 --> 01:05:11,960
It is. It is our three teamer for today, TB

1245
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:15,320
Royals minus one ten. We also have someone boots on

1246
01:05:15,360 --> 01:05:17,320
the ground there from the chat, so he's gonna get

1247
01:05:17,320 --> 01:05:21,159
that home for us, uh, Guardians for me plus one

1248
01:05:21,159 --> 01:05:22,920
oh five plus one O three plus one oh five

1249
01:05:22,960 --> 01:05:26,079
and then White Sox Braves under nine. So that's the

1250
01:05:26,119 --> 01:05:29,519
three team of Royals, Guardians, White Sox prays under nine

1251
01:05:30,159 --> 01:05:33,119
all full game, let's uh, let's cash a three teamer.

1252
01:05:33,199 --> 01:05:35,719
Hope everyone has a great day and we'll be back

1253
01:05:35,719 --> 01:05:38,159
in the morning. More total bases nine am tomorrow morning.

1254
01:05:38,360 --> 01:05:39,199
See you guys then