Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It is twoes a Thursday.
It is Thursday. It's time for Total Basis two man Show.
Today Tokyo. Brandon told us, I think he's at a
Japanese hot springs right now. Brian Leonard, that actually sounds
pretty cool. I think i'd be down to check that out.
Speaker 2: Don't know anything about it, but if he's doing it,
I'm sure it's a lot of fun.
Speaker 1: So TV's out with the in laws this week, so
he'll be I do believe he'll be back tomorrow. I
think he was trying to get back today, but he was.
He said the traffic was brutal in Japan, which yesterday
on the show, I envisioned him like driving out to
like central Japan and like the countryside. But he's like, no,
He's like, this is like the most populated country there is.
He's like, it's it's not that And so the traffic
was pretty rough. But that's all right. You got myself,
You've got Brian Leonard. It's your one stop shop for
Major League Baseball free picks and advice. Here on the
way to talk to YouTube channel and Brian. Since it's
only two of us and there's only seven games. I
think we can get to all seven games today. I
think we'll make sure we don't go off on too
many tangents. I think within the hour we can do
a deep dive on all seven games. So I am
just gonna get right into it. Let's start off from
the top. We've got a couple of day games today,
and let's go to Baltimore Mariners Orioles. I got this one.
I didn't play this yesterday, Brian, but I did get
this one right. I felt like it was not the
best spot for the Mariners. I felt like they were
a little bit inflated with Gilbert on the mound. The
Orioles tend to hit right handed pitching, and they tend
to hit better at home, and they ended up finding
a way to win that game, almost find a way
to choke it away, but in the end found a
way to win. They're up against another right handed pitcher
and Logan Evans today, but to me, not as good
as a setup for them. So how are you seeing
this one, Mariner's Orioles. It's the first day game on
the board today.
Speaker 2: Yeah. As you can tell by my background, I'm visiting
out of town today, so I'm using my laptop, and
I haven't used my laptop in a long time because
I don't travel much because I don't have any need to.
But a lot of the things that I have at
home I don't have now. So we're going to find
that I'm going to be very slow on moving things around.
Number one because of the situation where I'm on the laptop.
Other two is I don't have the same internet speed
and other things that I have at home. So I
want everybody to bear with me here. And we're looking
at the live odds here for the baseball and we'll
check that out. We're looking at what came what do
you want to talk about? The lizardo?
Speaker 1: So so just well to keep it just very easier
for you too, We're just going to go write in order.
So we'll start at the top and go right down
the list, So Mariners Orioles, we'll start with first game
on the board.
Speaker 2: So you're looking you're looking at time wise as opposed
to to the sprint or the money.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, sorry, Yeah, that's my bad. I'm gonna
go in time order.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, we got Evans going against Sigano, and let's
check that out here where you got the current lines
basically looking at Evans about a one twenty five favorite
total of ten, slightly to the under two guys that
for the most part, I've been looking to fade, although
memory serves me correctly, the last time they each pitched,
they did pretty well. Uh, you're gonna find that you're
gonna have games. We saw. We saw it this week.
Courchet got hit. A lot of guys that were good
get hit Williams. You know, I had Miami yesterday and
I loved the Miami situation. Williams threw one hundred and
twenty six pitches the game before, had a chance for
the no hitter, and you know, you and I we
ended up both on I didn't know, but we ended
up both with big plays on Miami yesterday because we've
seen that situation before, and when somebody is that close
to a no hitter and they throw that many more
pitches than they normally do, chances are they're not going
to have it next time out. And that's what we
saw out of Williams yesterday. Logan Evans, we're looking at
his numbers on the season four point three six CR
one point three nine WET. He does pitch in Seattle,
which should help his numbers. It's a good pitcher's park.
But when you took a look at his stack cast page,
there is nothing red on it. And red is good.
It's it's it's something we always look for. He had
his expected batting average six percentile, barrel rate, eighth extension.
He's six foot four and his extension is in the
six percentile. Is he just releasing the ball straight up?
He's not, you know, pushing it towards the towards the mound.
I think in the offseason they're going to have to
take a look at that because that's his biggest advantage.
If you are six' four or, higher your extension should
be great because you should finish closer to the. Mound
and why it's so important is the closer to the
mound that you let go of that ball is the
faster it gets on the. Batters and right now he's four.
Seemer he only throws at eleven percent of the, time
which is, good but it's only ninety two point eight
miles per, hour which is two point one miles per
hour works than the league. Average and he's only twenty,
four so he's not a guy that's going to dazzle
you with his, stuff AND i think he can be hit.
Here LIKE i, SAID i believe he came off a
nice start last time. Out but he's not a Guy
i'm looking to Back. Sigano he's been up and down all.
Season we, heard you, Know brandon's not here, today but
he talked about this earlier in the. Season he's a
journeyman at thirty five years. Old so he came over
here late four point two. Four he or a one
point three to one whip and they said he said
when he started off strong that once they got some
film on him and once the teams have played him
once that it would. Change and it. Has you, know last,
TIME i think was last time he pitched. Well but
he's very good in his walk grat eighty third, percentile
but that's really the only thing he does. Well hard
hit wait sixty, three better th league. Gaverage but he's
got EXPECTED era in the fifth, percentile expected batting average,
THIRD wif, six strikeout rate five and on ninth in.
Barrel so When i'm looking at these two, Pitchers i'm, thinking,
WELL i think the hitters can have some success. Here
we're looking at ten on the total that's a little
bit higher than what The Baltimore turtles, Are so it
has moved a little bit because of. That but IF
i was to play this, GAME i would play it.
Over but luckily we don't have to play. Anything so
at this Point i'm sitting it. Out but my first
thought process is to play the.
Speaker 1: Over, YEAH i don't disagree with. THAT i don't care
for either of these. Pitchers i've been vocal about that
on this, show looking for spots to play Against evans
and looking for spots to play Against. Sudano now, Today,
Brian i'm almost willing to look at THE i do
see edges here for The, Mariners and What i'm gonna
do is just look at the starting, pitching which you've
just sort of broken, down and, say you know, WHAT
i hope THAT i think they can equal out, Right
LIKE i JUST i Think evans And sugano here can
be a. WASH i think when you look at the
numbers and you look at some of the stack, castuff
some of the underlying, METRICS i think they're kind of
a wash at this. Point And i'll go even one
step further to, say like one against the others, lineup
make it kind of even to, me BECAUSE i still
Think seattle has a better lineup AND i still Think
seattle is Something Something i'll go back to that you
sort of put me onto earlier this season That i've
absolutely made money off of and didn't really think of
until you brought it, up was that this team has
just built to be better on the. Road the way
that they've constructed their ball club is more favorable when
they're not in their home, park or when they're not
in you, know their home, park or maybe a couple of.
Others it's there are much more. Favorable like they rely
on the home run ball to generate, offense and so
when you're you, know you'd rather have a team like
The mariners At Camden yards than AT T Mobile. Park
the ball it's just a more hitter friendly. Park the
ball gets out, easier so The mariners are that's a
plus for. Me for. Them where they have the huge
edge in this, Game, brian is the. Bullpen that's WHERE
i think they win this, game because right, now The orioles, bullpen,
well right, now if you're just looking at full season,
numbers they're bottom five in the. League this is not
a good. Bullpen and then you talk about like some
of those numbers still have they still have some of
their other relievers baked in who are no longer with the.
Team like this bullpen got worse since the trade. Deadline
they traded off a couple of key. Pieces The mariners
right now are finally into the top ten In Major
League baseball and most bullpen. Metrics, now this isn't an,
elite Elite seattle bullpen in my, opinion like it was
maybe the last couple of, years but they're getting. There
they're moving in the right direction right. Now if you
look at just Bullpen era very surface statistic three point
six y three for the, season that's eighth In Major League,
baseball and a lot of the underlying metrics are top.
Ten SO i like The mariners here BECAUSE i think
there's a massive bullpen. EDGE i don't think either of these,
starts like let's just, say like the first five or
six innings can can level, out And i'm not even
saying that's the. Case like The mariners could Bomb sugano
AND i wouldn't be surprised in the least pit BUT
i also understand that The orioles could do that same
kind of damage Against. Evans maybe it's a first five
over Because i'd rather have THE i think you're probably
gonna get the runs off the. Starters if The mariners
can take a lead into the later, INNINGS i think
they're gonna lock it. Down and if they're behind in
the later, INNINGS i think they're gonna find a way
to score, it kind of like they did yesterday and
The orioles were fortunate enough to walk that game. Off
SO i do like The mariners. Here in spite of
logan and SO i haven't liked this, YEAR i still
Think i'm pretty comfortable with The mariners play in this.
Speaker 2: Game you touched on AND i BELIEVE i spoke about
this in the first week we had the, show so
a lot of people have joined since since that. POINT
i broke down how The Seattle pitchers last year had
done at home as oppost of the, road and really
it was anywhere from a half a run better to
one and a half runs better on their E ra
when they pitch at. Home because this is not a
very good hitters. Ballpark there's some spots where the sun
comes in and it's there's a you, know they were
talking about the batters In. Seattle so when you're Playing
seattle at, HOME i like to fade the other team's.
Batters When seattle goes on the, road Because seattle plays
half their games at, HOME i like to play on
The seattle batters because they're in more of a neutral
hitting situation like. That So seattle at home fade you
play the team total under on the road team for
the most, part and With seattle's on the, road he
plays The seattle team to over and. Over and if
you've done that this, season you've probably performed very.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah for. Sure and One i'll take it one step, Further,
brian this is and this is something that's gone back
a couple of years. Now the. Books for whatever, reason the,
books BECAUSE i don't think there's like serious correlation to,
record the books love to force you to pay a
premium to back The mariners at. HOME i don't know
if it's because they typically play in like almost like
a standalone spot out on The West, coast or they're
always one of the last games off the, board but man,
like they are always inflated at, home and The, mariners
even this, year having the season that they're, having do
not get the same love on the. Road they just.
Don't so it works out for betters here because we
would rather back them on the road based on the
way their team is, constructed and the books just don't
attach that same sort of price tag to The mariners
when they're playing on the road as they do at.
HOME i hadn't quite figured out, why but there's like
THIS i think feel like subliminally people are, like Oh, mariners,
home good, atmosphere like home field, advantage but they're actually
a better road team in my, Opinion so that that's
something that really interests.
Speaker 2: Me, yeah they, Are and it reminds me a little.
Bit it's not the same as it is in college.
Football but as the day goes, on you, know the
pro betters are not going to play a game just
because it's the last game and they want to get
their money back for the. Day BUT i would you
probably get a one percent differential where you, know we
get to the last game of the day and people
want to play, it and of course they're going to
play the, favorite and usually once See al's at, home
they're the, favorite so it might it might go up
a little. Bit but it reminds me a little bit
in college football when you got that bailout game In
hawaii on A. Saturday if you ever want to, Play
If hawy's got a good football team and they're going
to be favorite in a, game you bet it early
in the week and you see that line move and
you can always buy it. BACK i know it's a baseball,
show but you can always buy it back right before
game time on A hawaii, game and you, know you
may lay fourteen and you may catch seventeen coming back
because people it's the last day game of the. Day
they've been watching football all day and they will bet that.
Game and people have a tendency to bet the home
teams and bet the. Favorites so it's you, know we've
got a baseball show, here but something for the upcoming football,
season in which college football is less than two weeks.
Speaker 1: Away our Guy Drew martin calls that the degenerate. Specials
he loves, that saying he that is the degenerate special right,
there that last game on the, Board and, YEAH i fully.
AGREE i think The mariners fall into it a lot
of times since they're almost always the last one to,
start and they get a little bit inflated at home
because of. It you know what else is sort of
degenerate special, Territory, brian is when they're STANDALONE mlb games
in an afternoon THAT i feel like always has market
implications that we don't see in other. Games and it's
almost always The cubs because they always have like the
standalone game on A. Friday The cubs play a standalone game,
today but it's on the road up In. Toronto big.
Series here to two teams THAT i fully, expected you,
know be in the playoffs and be in the, mix
though The cubs have sort of relinquished that lead in
THE Nl. Central But Cubs Blue. Jays, today we Got Matt,
boyd we Got Max. Schurzer this is gonna be a
fun one to. Watch are you seeing any way to
bet this? Game?
Speaker 2: YEAH i would take a look at the line on this.
One and we've Got boyd on the road and a
lefty Against shurez are at, home and it's basically a
pick them most most places Have boyd as a slight,
favorite but you you're looking at basically a pick them either.
Way both these, pitchers Especially, shurezer has got a lot
of red on his sac cast page and he's he's
pitched pretty well this. YEAR i mean the. Guy the
guy's an older, guy but he's pitched very. Well. Boyd
i've LIKED i liked him when even signed him last.
Year he performed very. Well last. Year he had a
two point seven to TWO era one point one to three.
Whip he only threw thirty nine, innings but those innings
were quality. Innings he's had problems with injuries over the,
years and this year he was one of the first
GUYS i wanted to back this year because not only
did he pitched very well last year in a limited
amount of, Time he's going To, chicago who had has
a far better offense than The Cleveland guardians. Do so
he comes in with a two point four to FIVE
era one point five. Whip AND i mentioned maybe two
or three weeks ago THAT i was a little bit
concerned because the last two years combined he threw one
hundred and ten. Innings, well he's already up to one
hundred and thirty five point two right now IF i remember.
Correctly it was his last start he got hit a little,
bit so there will be some, REGRESSION i believe On Matthew.
Boyd if your body's just not used to throwing those
kind of innings and you've had surgery and you come,
back it's gonna. Take you, know there's a lot of
quality baseball players out there in the last few years
that have talked about. That SO i Like Matthew, boyd
BUT i think the time of getting value on him
may have. Ended his walk rate is really, strong ninety
first percentile hardheat rates seventy fifth ex of velocity seventy,
second chase sixty. Nine he doesn't have that major wifth
percentage's in the thirty first percent tile in that fastball velocity.
Thirtieth he does throw his four seamer forty six percent
of the, time and he's basically league average for a
left hander at ninety three point three just slightly over you,
know two percent or zero point two percent better than
a league. Average but he rose to change twenty three,
percent slider sixteen, percent curve twelve. Percent there's a sinker
wants to all at four. Percent so unlike some guys
that are out there that only have three or four,
pitches he's got four solid pitches and he also have
a sinker once in a. While and, uh he's playing
a team In toronto that played in them obviously plays
in The American. LEAGUE i don't remember off hand if
he Faced cleveland last, year or excuse, me he was On,
cleveland if he Faced toronto last. Year, well this is
a guy that they don't see very. Often he may
have a little bit of success, here sure's. There everybody
see he's been around. Forever he's forty one years. Old
he's in his eighteenth nineteenth eighteenth, season and he's been
pretty good. Consistently if he could just stay, healthy you,
know his his future looks bright when it comes to
The hall Of. Fame he's still got two hundred and
eighteen wins one or one hundred and fourteen. Losses he's
he's got like a sixty five percent win percentage In
Major League. BASEBALL i think he's on his way to
The hall Of. Fame three point one eight RA a
one point h eight in his career this, Year i've
been four point two ONE. Era but he was hurt
earlier and pitched a little bit. Hurt he's one of
those bulldogs that don't want to come out of, it
doesn't want to come out of the game regardless for.
Anything and there's been many of those situations in the.
Past where he's had problems being. Pulled he he's a
guy everybody wants on the. Team but if if he's
not pitching, well that is a concern for the manager
because you don't want to upset. Him but still you've
got to win the. Games that's a manager's. Job so
he's done very well and he comes in here with
some really nice red on his stackcast page eighty seventh
percent AVERAGE exi, velocity eighty six, percent walk great eighty
fifth hard, hit and his strikeout seventy six. Percent Hel
his fastball's gone down a little. Bit he's about one
point two mon hour or slower slower than league average
at this. Point, hey at forty one years, old we
all get older and you're going to see. That but
he throws his slider twenty five, percent change up, thirteen curve,
thirteen and he throws the cutter once in a, while
so he has other pitches that he can throw if
his fastball is getting. Hit you always like. That you'd
hate to have a guy that throws the, fastball you,
know the majority of the time and it's not a good.
Fastball but his ground ball percentage in the first percent.
Out Now torond's pretty good hitting hitting environment more centralized
in the. Middle but when you've got the hitters The
toronto has and the way that they've been hitting this,
year that's. Good and if they're hitting that, well chances
are the opposition is hitting that. Well so it's a
good hitters part this. Year so it's groundball rated in
the first. Percent out could come back and haunt him.
Here he could give up some home runs to a
very good Hitting chicago, Team so that is always a.
Concern and AS i, mentioned the line is basically a
pick them. HERE i like both the. Pitchers i'm looking
to Fade boid a little bit. More if you're looking
at you, know the last fourteen, days last thirty, Days
toronto is really not the hell out of the. Ball
SO i kind of lean With toronto. HERE i think
the line's pretty. Cheap the Way chicago's played in the last,
month the Way toronto's played in the last, MONTH i
kind of Like toronto. Here It's alumnue car, today so
there's gonna be less games to stand. Out but IF
i had to play, THIS i would Play toronto assures.
Speaker 1: It, YEAH i really struggled to find any sort of
edge in this. Game So I'LL i want to get
to all seven. Games So i'm just gonna throw two
sort of tidbits out and then we'll move on BECAUSE
i really have no pick. Here But howvey cash and
the chat says took a Little cubs not a fan
Of boyd on The. Road, yeah like HIS i, mean
if you look at his road, numbers they're, Solid like
if you were to just take it out of context
texts and, say, hey this Is boyd on the. Road
that being, said if you're looking at the splits like
they are worse than his numbers at. Home he's been
borderlined unhittable At. Wrigley on the, road his batting average
against the sixty point tire and you know HIS era
is three point one five as opposed to one point
seventy five at. Home so, again his numbers are still
very solid on the road if you're just looking at, like,
okay these are his, numbers e er around three and
like put but they are worse than his numbers at.
Home so it's a good. Point only other THING i
want to point out, HERE i do believe we'll see
the major league debut Of Owen casey. Today, finally he's
a guy that he's a guy, that like most other
organizations would have already sort of pushed up to the.
Bigs but you, know there's there's a it's The. Cubs
there's a lot of good outfielders on the roster and
and you, know he's a guy, that, like he's been
super consistent his whole time at TRIPA, a but he
never had that like week or two weeks where he
hits five home runs in seven, games and it's, like you,
know he almost is just like then you have you
have fans that think they're gms and they're like call him,
up call them, up, Right, like he's just been super,
consistent pulled up his numbers this. Year again you don't
hear about him very, often but he just like he
really doesn't have many lulls nine to fifty five ops
and the minors this. Year that's, awesome having a great.
Season and he's a guy THAT i thought would have
made it up last year at some, point but again
it's The. Cubs he just. HADN'T i think it was
A maya that went down last night with an. Injury
so he's gonna get called. Up and he is From,
ontario so you can rest assured he will be in
the lineup in the series, finale probably a bunch of
friends and family and. Attendance he's having a he he,
Is brian a boost to The cubs, lineup Like casey
Over amaya right, now that's a that's a plus in my.
Opinion so glad to see him finally get called. Up and,
AGAIN i actually view that as a bump up for
The cubs. Lineup so take that for what you want
to take it. For, again no play here for, me
but those are THAT'S i think a big. Takeaway cubs
getting one of their their top slugging prospects up and
making his major league debut this. Afternoon, yeah all, RIGHT.
Speaker 2: I just want to touch on that a little. Bit
i'll be. Brief he he a lot of teams wanted
him during the trade deadline and The cubs refuse to
put him in any. Package. Uh he's got tremendous, power but,
yeah a lot of swinging mess and that is my
concern with him because the pitching and you, know in
the minors is not that great and it's a big
step from going you, know double A a to the.
Majors he's going to be a guy who's going to
swing and MISS i WOULD i would say his first time,
off he's probably going to be in a forty percent strikeout,
Range so there is going to be a lot if
he hits. It it's it's good to be hit, hard
and it's gonna be hit. Far but it's going to
take him a while to get that timing, down and
so just don't jump on him just because he's up.
There he eventually he'll be he'll be a solid player for.
Them but like we've, seen out of, nine at least
eighty percent of the players that have come up this
year In Major League baseball their first trip, up unless
you're the second basement for The Minnesota twins or you,
know with the guy From. Miami but there's a lot
of guys that have struggled and they got to go
back down and then they come back up, again and
every time they come back up, again they get. Better
and that's the way it should, be and that's when
they start playing every day In Major League. Baseball SO
i like the future his. FUTURE i like The cub's
future because of, Him BUT i don't think that's really
much of an. Advantage for probably the first week or
so In Major League.
Speaker 1: Baseball, yeah that guy From miami Is Jacob, marcy and
if you watch this, show we talked about him well
before he came. UP i THINK i pointed out his
call up being a big, deal and he has had
as good of a start to AN mlb career as
just about anyone. Ever NOW i don't know how sustainable
it is for, him even as good as a player
as he. Is that was something to watch last. Night
all his friends and family there at the. Game that
was pretty. COOL i believe he's from, Dearborn, Michigan, brian
so it's His they interviewed his mom on The marlins
broadcast last night and they, said, like this was the
closest big league. Park i'm. Sure i'm sure it's, like you, Know,
detroit but maybe they don't play At detroit this, year
SO i think she was saying like this was the
closest big league. Park he had a serious fan section,
there probably like one hundred friends and, family and he
strolls up and just goes like five for five or.
Something that was awesome for.
Speaker 2: RUNS i believe.
Speaker 1: We didn't talk, yesterday you were, traveling yet we both
ended up on The marlins both for a lot of
the similar. Reasons Double Jacks wilde, says great five star
pick last. Night, YES i Had marlins for a five
percenter an offset a bad call in The, giants but
we'll take. It not going to. Complain let's go to
that series again. Today Your Cleveland guardians have been playing
some good. Ball i'll give him a. Pass last night
that was always going to be a spot For Gavin.
Williams one of my takeaways, Though, brian was the ball
flying out of that field last. Night it looked LIKE
i THOUGHT i was Watching corse field for a. Second Xavier,
Edwards Xavier edwards of all people put when twenty rows? Up,
like was the ball jumping there last? Night does that happen?
Sometimes it? Seems.
Speaker 2: Yeah if if in hot weather In, cleveland and and believe,
Me i've been. Here i'm not used to the. Humidity
but it's gonna be rough.
Speaker 1: Today you're getting the same weather as.
Speaker 2: Me.
Speaker 1: Today it's gonna be rough. TODAY i got them lull my.
Lawn i'm not looking forward to.
Speaker 2: It, Yeah and we've got a total of seven and
a half in this one With cabrera And. Biby bibby's
favorite about you, know one thirty favorite or. Whatever, YEAH
i NORMALLY i would be On cabrera. Here i've been
looking to Fade tyler to The. Bibby. Uh But cabrera
is playing, great and we've been on, him and we
were one of the first to talk about his control
issues that have been, there and they're not there this.
Year the last two, years his whip was in twenty
twenty three one point four to, four last year one
point three, seven this year one point one. Three and
we've always seen that he's got great, stuff but if
you walk, people you're just really hurting. Yourself this year it's.
Different it's different three point eight e or a one
point one to three whip in the. Red on his stacks,
page fastball velocity eighty six, percentile and his ground ball
rates seventy eighth, percentile chase, rate whiff, rate and straight
and straight rate all about seventy four seventy fifth. Percentile.
Uh and WHAT i really like about him is he's
got that four seamer at ninety six point eight percent
miles per, hour which is about two miles an hour
better in base better Than Major league. Baseball but that's
only his fifth pitch that he. Throwed so as good
as his fourth steamer, is he only tells it thirteen
percent of the. Time he's got a, change a, curve a,
sinker and a, slider all between thirteen percent and twenty four.
Percent that is really tough because if you take a
look at some of his average miles an, hour his
four seamer is at ninety six point, eight slider eighty
eight point, five sinker ninety six point, six curve eighty
three point, seven change ninety three point. Nine so it's
close enough where if you see if you think it's a,
fastball it could be any one of these five and
it's in the same general. Arrange the curve is obviously
a little bit often eighty three point, seven but the.
Slide if you can get four pitches and the slider
is eighty eight point, five your fastball is ninety six point.
Eight that batter has got to make a decision is
this a breaking ball or is this a? Fastball and
that is what makes him so good as of, late
just pitching rifically three point ZERO era one point one three.
Whip the only PROBLEM i have is NORMALLY i don't
Like tobacco team that just went like crazy on, somebody
especially if they're comparable. Teams and even THOUGH i don't
Like Tyler biby or Tenor, biby it's something that probably
is enough to keep me out of the. Game bybby
comes in four point six OH era one point two
seven with both career. Highs is only his third season
In Major League. Baseball he struggles with the chase rate fourteenth.
Percentile nothing's really. Outstanding his walk grade sixty ninth. Percentile
but he does throw six pitches anywhere from a five
percent on the curve twenty seven percent on the four,
team very similar in a slower percentage than what the
opposition starter has. Today he's just been very inconsistent this.
Year at the strikeout rate right now is in the
forty fifth. Percentile he just hasn't had it this. Year
they're gonna, obviously he was very successful in the first two.
YEARS i think in the off season they'll work with.
Him he'll probably be back where he. Was but he's
somebody that you, KNOW i watch every game for the
for the of this, team AND i just have not
seen the Same tan Or baby as the. Past so
if you, Look miami's going to be the better team
you're the better, starter but as many as much as
they dominated that game, YESTERDAY i don't usually like to
back that team again when they're playing a team of equal.
Strength And cleveland And, miami you are both both good.
TEAMS i don't think either one is a playoff, team
but they're both on the. Fringes so that's going to
be enough to lead me. Out. Now you mentioned the
seven and a half OR i mentioned the seven and
a half on the, total and you mentioned that the
weather is very. SIMILAR i don't have my weather app
on this on this my computer, here so maybe the
wind is blowing. In that seems to me that that
would be the. Case.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: Probably you, know we're looking at a game in which
it's going to be a getaway, day and if you
follow getaway Days thursday And, sunday you're probably better off betting.
Under So i'm gonna lay off of that. One BUT
i Think cabrera will shut Down, cleveland and because it's
a a getaway, game maybe maybe Play cleveland first five
team total or under excuse, me team total under something
to that.
Speaker 1: Effect, YEAH i, MEAN i don't. Know, like so it
looks like the wind is like nine miles an. HOUR
i don't know if that's significant or. NOT i don't
know where it's. BLOWING i just and, again like you,
know it could Have it could have also just Been
Gavin williams serving up just because here's the. Thing it's
not like it's not like The guardian's hit, many but
they're really the only ball that THE i mean that
the three run homer for The guardians yesterday was just
a total mistake By ramirez And perez just being like
kind of, inexperienced like throwing us like he was sitting
on a slider in that, spot and it was so
it was so painfully obvious That Augustin ramirez didn't want
to call a fastball that like basically any slider in the.
Zone arius was he was just sitting on. It like
the broadcast even was like young catcher right, there gotta you,
know he's gonna have to learn they can't call that
pitch in that. Spot and that was On Augustin, ramirez
who's still pretty inexperienced at catching at the big league.
Level so it might have just been The marlins just
doing what they do when they get, hot and that
hitting balls hard, everywhere like you, know it JUST i
just Like Xavier edwards just doesn't really hit balls like.
That so when that one landed twenty rows up on the,
first like first pitch of the, GAME i was, like
oh my. God and then of Course marcy put one.
Out but, yeah Ed Edward, cabrera it has to Be
marlins or pass for. ME i got my money with
The marlins last night as a. DOG i don't know
If i'm gonna feel the need to poke the bear
again with them on the. Road But, Brian i've talked about.
THIS i like playing this team off of. WINS i
like playing The marlins when they get a win and
have something good, happen because they're one of those young
teams that really seems to be. Streaky they seem to
play with. Emotion when things are going, good things tend
to go, good and then when something bad, happens it
usually goes the other. Way so the fact that they
get a win now they've Got Edward cabrera on the,
mound who you know as the upside with, him is
still just. TREMENDOUS i, mean If Edward cabrera puts it all,
together AND i don't think he's that far, Off, BRIAN
i don't think he's that far off and putting it all,
together he's an. Ace he Is sandy Al contra two
point zero for this. Organization like he like that's his,
upside is like, ace frontline. Starter so not SOMEONE i
want to go, against especially not SOMEONE i want to
go against and lay a price, Again so it's got
to be The marlins or pass for.
Speaker 2: Me. HERE i wanted to point out he was also
supposedly on the trade block and did not did not
get the offers for. Him you had mentioned the other
pitchers For cleveland, yesterday they used four other, relievers gave
up nine earned, runs with those four relievers going six.
Innings SO i don't think it was Just. WILLIAMS i
think it was a combination Of williams in the, weather
the weather being very good for hitters, yesterday so they
hit all the relievers stept For Austin, hedges who came
into the ninth. Ending don't mop it. Up the catcher
was the only guy to shut down The miami outfits,
yesterday AND i believe he left the bases.
Speaker 1: Loaded all, right let's move. Along. SOMEONE i was trying
to scan through and find the. COMMENT i can't find.
It but that's. Okay someone wanted to know how The, nationals,
WELL i guess they were, saying how did The nationals
sort of choke that game? Away but they ended up
getting it in the, End nationals ended up giving Away.
BRIAN i believe it was a, well it was a
five nothing to lead in the first. Inning then they
choked multiple leads away and then they came out and
got a run in the ninth and one eight to
seven on the road In Kansas. City today they're back,
home quick, turnaround back. HOME i got The phillies wrong.
YESTERDAY i kind of, knew like SO i used The
phillies as my parlay leg early in the. Day number
moved against, me AND i was just, like, okay like
this is you, know is this is this how it's
going to. GO i still like the, handicapped like the
setup for The. Phillies but they got blasted By. CINCINNATI
i don't think the rain delayed did them any favors.
Yesterday now they turn around and they've got to go TO.
Dc nationals coming back. Home Brad lord's a guy THAT
i always think it's a little, undervalued and he's on
the mound Against Jesus. Lozardo So Phillies nats in The nation's.
Capital how you see in this?
Speaker 2: One, yeah it's too Bad brand is not. Here this
would be his ultimate religious, Game jesus Against lord.
Speaker 1: CALLED i didn't think of.
Speaker 2: It we've Got philadelphia with A lozardo roughly what a
one ninety. Favorite we'll call it one ninety. Favorite and
the total on this is eight and a half to the.
Over but if The washington's got a few starters THAT
i somewhat. Like but they've got by far the worst
bullpen In Major League, baseball so it doesn't really surprise
me to See washington take an early lead in a
game and then lose. It but the five nothing was
a little bit frightening if you're A phillies, fan and
obviously that that's what ended up costing. Him Jeu's lozardo
here on the season four point two OE a one
point three to five went very. Inconsistent, unfortunately his extensions
only in the six percent of that's really the only
thing he struggles. With but there's nothing you can do about.
That he's only six foot so even if he does
they do work with, him that's still a small or
a shorter pitcher In Major League. Baseball but he's got
some really nice, numbers going from seventy six percent tele
to the eighty second percentile at fastball, velocity chaser eight f,
rate strikeout, percentage and barrel. Percentage and if the things
that he's not really that great, on he's about league.
Average so he's a guy they can has the ability
to go out and perform very, well but his inconsistency
has been the. Problem throws his four singer thirty five
percent of the. Time but he does have a great
four singer ninety six point four miles an, hour three
point three miles an hour better than a normal left
handed pitcher In Major league. Baseball bred right, Now, Washington
you're just they really only have like one or two
guys that they can really, trust and one of them
is is a guy who's been very consistent as a
light But Brad lord on the season three point two
eighty or eight one point two to one whip which
looks really. Good, also his hes got an extension. Problem
he's six foot three and he's only in the third,
percentile and extension they need TO i think they really
need to. Work if you're a guy six three sixty.
Four you've got to at least be in the fiftieth.
Percentile so he gives the opposition more of a chance to,
say m round ball rate ninety fifth, percentile which is
very good because this is a pretty good hitters part
barrel right ninety second, percentile average exivosity eighty, Second so
those look look pretty. Good but his extension that's the
really bad. Thing But Chase raight only twenty five percent.
Percentile he's got only four, pitches four seemer fifty four,
percent but it's basically league. Average then he's got his
slider a sicker and his change goes anywhere from eleven
to eighteen percentile of the ten percent of the time
when he. Pitches this is a, guy you, know a
lot of people don't know about. Him he's, not at
least to my, knowledge one of their really outstanding prout young.
Guys so you may get a little bit of value
here On, washington especially going against The philadelphia team at this.
Point you, KNOW i follow a lot of beat writers
and you, know national writers and, stuff and they're thinking
That philadelphia is maybe the favorite right now to win
The World. Series could be they've got, great great starting.
Pitching they've really helped out their bullpen over the trade
deadline and the. Hitters this has always been a pretty
good hitting ball. Club you go one through nine on
this team In, philadelphia it's hard to find any other
team that can stack up to them in that. Regard
SO i somewhat lean with the under or excuse, me
lean with the underdog. HERE i Think washington is a
little bit better than what they haven't been playing, Well
i'll tell you that right. Now but from a talent,
standpoint getting you, know to Make philadelphia and one two
dollars favorite, Here i'm not going to lay. IT i
don't know If i'll get there with the. Dog they're
very expensive And lord's been a pretty good pitcher for.
Them so BUT i don't like the. Bullpen IF i
was to play, it i'd play For washington in the first,
five but they won't be on my card. Today.
Speaker 1: Yeah so a couple of things, Here Like i've been
noticing watching The knats, recently they're getting back to they
can't hit left handed. Pitching they're getting back to not
being able to hit left handed. Pitching, NOW i Like Brad.
Lord that's the. Thing, Like i'm not going to take
The phillies at this price Because i'm high on On
i'm higher On Brad lord than the MARKET i have.
Been and he's not SOMEONE i really want to bet.
AGAINST i could see he's he's kind of he'll. Battle
he'll probably keep them if he pitches, well he's going
to keep them in the. Game my issue is The
nats just they just are back to not being able
to hit. LEFTIES i, Mean brian They Paul deyong is
batting third for them when they play left handed. Pitching
that's that's how bad this lineup is against. Lefties and
all those guys THAT i, said, okay well they're they're
making some moves to be a little bit more. Balanced
none of them have panned. Out Brady house currently has
AN ops of five. Ninety you, Know Jacob young is
still getting playing time and he'll be in the lineup
against left handed. Pitching HIS ops is five fifty. Five Dylan,
cruz who was one guy that would would help them
out a little bit against, lefties he's back down at
TRIPLE a because he's got to figure some stuff. Out
so this lineup is ugly against left handed. Pitching because
all the guys that you expect to. Produce Colin gregory,
says DID i Hear cruise is back? Today? MAYBE i
Mean i've been watching him play all. WEEK i bet
both of Those Syracuse rochester. Games, LIKE i, mean maybe
he if he's, back he'll be in the. Lineup how
big of a boost is. THAT i don't. Know he
hasn't done anything in the big league. Level, really he
struggled big. Time so, yeah maybe you get him, back
maybe you throw him out. There but, STILL i mean
then you, know it's just has not. Been it just
has not been a good lineup against left handed pitch at.
All because the guys that you rely on in this,
lineup The, Abrams, Woods, Low, uh you, Know, garcia like,
like they're they're all better against left ear better against
right handed. Pitching so even though lozarda can be a
little bit, INCONSISTENT i don't want to poke that bear
because we know what He we know if he's, on
he can be really, tough Right, like If lozardo's, on
he can be, tough and this is not a great
like if he's, On let's Say lozardo comes out and
he's he's got similar stuff to he did last time
or similar stuff to what he did two starts or
three starts to go against The White. Sox nats aren't touching.
Anything they'll get shut out. Here so maybe you've got
a team total under on The. Nats because The phillies
have all their good bullpen arms as. WELL i can't
see them putting up a big number Against. Lizardo and
then if it is a close game and you have
to Face duran and some of the top bullpen, ARMS
i don't think you're getting much output from The nats,
here so that that'll be HOW i look in this.
One nats total, under whatever it, IS i don't have
it in front of, me but whatever it is is.
Fun all, Right let's continue, Along. Brian we'll lock in the.
Part someone's, like where's the, Parlay, well we'll do it
at the end of the. Show we're gonna do all the,
games so we might as well just lock in the
parlay at the end of the. Show let's move on
To Queen's, Braves mets the uh you know The mets
had their Don't we don't have time to go out
in a. TANGENT i don't know That Pete alonzo deserved
a parade for becoming the all time home run leader
In mets. History like that's. Nice it's, like maybe you
bring it up on the, broadcast give him like a
little let them wave to the. Crowd they're acting like
He's Hank, Aaron, bryan they're acting like He's Hank, aaron
like he just broke some big, record and they were
More it looks like they were more concerned with that
because they got blasted yesterday by The braves eleven to.
Six now they come back. TODAY i was talking To
Tokyo brandon yesterday and sort of, Saying, BRIAN i don't,
know MAYBE i was a little wrong on This mets.
TEAM i had the ranked one in The National league
at one point this, year AND i don't have them there.
Anymore not saying that they're not still a very good,
team but it's becoming more and more apparent on a
daily basis that The phillies are likely winning this. Division
braves Met Sanga. ELDER i don't Like Bryce. ELDER i
won't be betting, him but do you have any interest
in The mets?
Speaker 2: Here, yeah two teams, struggling although The Braves bats have
come alive as of. LATE i understand Why atlanta's playing.
Poorly there's really no reason why The mets should be
playing this poorly with the talent they have on this.
Team they went out and strengthened what was already a
pretty good. Bullpen now they've got one of the, best
if not the best bullpens In Major League. Baseball sanga
started the YEAR i come. Off it came off an.
Injury he started the year very, well but he's regressed
as of. Late SO i don't want to Back New.
York there they're in they're basically about one ninety favorite.
Here total is nine. UNDER i don't want to back
The mets because of. That senga struggle a little bit right,
now not playing. Well nine to the under is the.
Total AND i think you mentioned it With Atlanta Elder.
Elders he could very well be the worst pitcher In
Major League. Baseball we've talked about it in the. Past
i'll just give you there's four numbers that make pitching
value for stat caast pitching run value first, percentile fastball
run value second, percentile off speed run value first. Percentile
his best is his breaking run value at forty fourth.
Percentile he only throws four pitches and none of them
are really fast as four savers at ninety two point,
two and he just doesn't have. It AND i don't you,
know it tells you how deep and how many injuries
have happened To atlanta this. Year today have to continuously
throwing him out. There he's not a good, pitcher and
they're going to give up some runs to This mets.
OFFENSE i don't care how bad this metroplane right, now
they should be able to hit. Him But sango's very.
Similar it was great. Earlier BUT i do have some.
Concerns if you take a look at his his stackass
page not really excellent in. Anything he's from sixty ninth
percentile to the seventieth percent of hele his fifth, percentage
ground ball, rate average backson, velocity and expected batting. Average
none of that really adds up to a two point
three to ZERO. Era so we've got a guy here
In New York i'm looking is obviously going to have
some negative regression going against An atlanta team who's got
probably the worst starting the worst pitcher in baseball. GOING
i kind of like the over in this. Game you're
only looking. At you, know there's a couple eight and
a half over twenty twenty five and some nines under.
Twenty if you can get an eight and a half
here in lay, twenty you, know minus thirty or. LESS
i think that's the way to play. This but once,
again it, is you, know a getaway, day and they
do tend to play under so that is a concern.
Here SO i lean that, way But i'm probably not
going to get.
Speaker 1: There, YEAH i, MEAN i know the number is what it.
IS i see a considerable edge on The mets. HERE
i KNOW i keep, saying LIKE i keep coming back
to this team and THEY i still think it's there.
SOMEWHERE i still think The mets are going to emerge
as like this threat Come. SEPTEMBER i don't know if
it's BECAUSE i Know i'm gonna get to See Jonah
toong in a week or two here In. Syracuse very
excited about. That doubt HE'LL i, mean you, KNOW i
wouldn't be surprised if he's a Guy brian that this
has nothing to do with this handicap or Where Steve
cohen just as like, fit let's bring him up In.
September you, know like there's always one where they didn't
plan on. Him this, year but like he's just doing
he's just so good in the minors and like things
aren't clicking that like he ends up on a postseason.
ROSTER i think that could Be Jonah, tong by the,
way so jot that. Down he'll make A Syracuse met's
debut this. WEEK i may take a ride To rochester
to see that. Game but, What, SORRY i got off the. Topic,
Oh Bryce. Elder so this would be a great Spot
brian to call Up Didier fuentez to make his major league.
Debut but you know why that's not gonna, happen because
The braves already destroyed. Him he's, back he's actually throwing
the ball well At TRIPLE. A but The braves straight
ruined this kid earlier this year for no, reason for
absolutely no. Reason so now we're still stuck With Bryce
elder at the big league. Level that whole front office
should be escorted. Out fill your, box take your, stuff
and we'll see you. Later they, needed they, Needed that's
who they need To The braves need to get rid
of all the people making. Decisions they don't need to
get rid Of akuna all sin like they have good,
players it's just been terrible decision after terrible decision pretty
much since they won The World, series and now they're
left With Bryce elder every fifth, day AND i think
you're gonna get what you deserve to get If Bryce
elder's still in your starring. Rotation AND i think that's a.
Loss so The, mets, again you don't really need me
to like go that far into. It they're a far better,
team that's. Obvious AND i Think, senga even with his,
struggles gives you considerable edge over The. Braves and then
The mets still have an elite bullpen that you didn't
use anyone, yesterday so they should theoretically have the good
arms stacked. Up it should give them a big. ADVANTAGE
i really will be surprised if The mets lose this,
game but The mets have surprised, me but with how
bad they've been of. Late that being, said this just
feels like a spot they can't mess. Up queue up
The braves seven to four. Win but this really does
feel like a spot that The mets can't mess. Up
and Unfortunately i'm on record saying that, now so we'll.
See that might be the Parlay. Lego we've got two
games to talk about we'll go quick on these last
two and then we'll get. There but we're gonna finish the.
Show we got about ten minutes. Left it's okay if
we run a minute or two. OVER i want to
get to the last two. Games then we'll lock.
Speaker 2: In.
Speaker 1: Tigers they're hitting the road. Tonight someone in the chat,
said nice call in The twins, Yesterday, Adam, yeah that
was one of the free plays that did get. There
should have put that in the, parlay wouldn't have ruined.
It But Joe ryan pitches. Well twins salvage the, finale
and their reward for that is to head home and
Get Tariq. Schooble It's bailey over on the mound for The,
twins who have played better. Ball it was for the
most part the last couple of. Weeks do they have
a chance here Against? Schooble what do you?
Speaker 2: Think, Yeah scooble going on the. Road about a two
dollars favorite here against over total seven and a half
to the, under about one. Twenty when you take a
look At, detroit, Obviously schooble's the, ace and he's got great.
Numbers a lot of red on the. Stack, gass page
eleven and three record after an eighteen to four record last.
Year they have a lot of success when he's on
on the, mound and his stack gass page is basically
you can't get much. Better is pitching run value one hundred,
percentile all speed run value one hundred, percentile fastball run
value ninety. Seventh the guy's. Great his ground ball rate
it's actually less than a little bit the league, average
and depending on where they play That minnesota is not
really that great of a home rent hitting. Ballpark but
he's a guy you've got to have a really good
reason to play against. Him and While ice find value
here On, MINNESOTA i won't get. There minnesota is playing
a lot better THAN i thought they. Would we talked about.
THAT i faded them the first four or five games
after the trade deadline and had some. Success but since
then they've got all these young kids up there and
they're gaining some. Confidence bailey over a guy that is so.
Inconsistent last year he won twelve games with a three
point nine eighty or. A the year before three point
four to three era looked really, good excellent whips at
one point zero zero and one point zero. Seven not
so much this. Year it's come back to home a little.
Bit five point one sixth cra one point three eight
whip excellent extension six foot nine will do that to.
You ninety eight percentile walk, right ninety, second chase rate ninety.
Three those are very. Good fastball velocity seventh percentile barrel, rate,
twelfth round ball rate. Fifth, Obviously detroit's got the much better.
Pitcher do you want to lay two dollars on the
road with The detroit? Team who's really gonna have to
fight off some of these teams in this. Division cleveland's playing,
Well Kansas city's playing. Better i'm not going to do.
It i'm going to pass on this. One but this
last game we've got coming up will be my part
of the, parlay and we'll get to that in just a.
Speaker 1: Minute, so you, know it's. TOUGH i like to try
to put myself in the mind of the manager and
what they're going to, do but like, unfortunately right now
it's the front office is managing This twins. Team because
if it was about trying to, compete even with the
roster that that you have right, now Like Mick abel
wouldn't be down At TRIPLE. A Todj bradley wouldn't be
these would be the guys starting major league games for The.
Twins it makes no sense other than the fact that,
like like it just makes no. Sense why are you
Putting why are you having Like Travis adams And Thomas
hatch split a bullpen game when you could Have Mick
abel starting OR. Todj, Bradley, like these are guys that
should be in the majors starting right. Now so it's
it's very difficult to like try to put myself in
the shoes of the. Manager what are they gonna? Do
because if The twins were really trying to be competitive
and trying to, win they would Have Pearson owl Behind
bailey over. HERE i thought they were gonna Use ol.
Yesterday maybe they didn't really need him yesterday because Like
Joe ryan pitched deep into the game and then they
had a. Lead so like, YESTERDAY i thought for Sure
ol was gonna come in and finish finish that. Game
it was kind of his turn to. Pitch but you know,
What Joe ryan threw into the seventh. Inning maybe they were, like,
okay we can go Like thunderbirk in a, matchup and
then we'll Have topa who's kind of like our leverage
guy close it out at this. Point SO i think
that Leaves pierson ol to Follow bailey ob, today and
that's actually somewhat. Appealing. BRIAN i you, Know Bailey, Ober
we've given him a lot of you, know flack on this,
show if you. Will but his numbers are better at, Home,
like there's no question he's thrown the ball better at.
Home and when he gets sort of like in a
little bit of a, groove he can be pretty. Good
and This tiger, listen The tigers have not hit since
The All star. Break this team has not consistently hit
in a long. Time and even yesterday it took a
one nothing win WHERE i think they got five one
run on five, hits they managed to win that. GAME
i want no part of The, tigers even Within schooble
on the mound right. NOW i want no part of
them as a two dollars. Favorite didn't The twins just
generate some offense Off schooble like a week. AGO i
think he's facing them again in quick. SUCCESSION i would
run it back with The. Twins twins plus one and
a half is like even. MONEY i think you're gonna
Get pierson ol After bailey Over pierson owls like the
most exciting young arm they currently have on the big league.
Roster don't ask me why the other ones are still
In Saint, paul but they. Are SO i think you
Get bailey over To pierson oll. Here that's enough for
me to, say you know, what the plus one and
a half give me the run cushion in a. Game
maybe The twins steal late because even If schooble's, pitching,
WELL i just don't know that the offense is there
yet for The. Tigers they just keep not. Hitting SO
i like The twins on the run line. Here all, Right,
brian what's your parlay? Leg one more? Game and you
said it's the parlay? Leg what is?
Speaker 2: It? Yeah arizona Against colorado. Here rodriguez a lefty on
the mountain for The, diamondbacks And colorado's going With, blaylock
who has been forced to take some starts because of
their struggles all season long and starting. Pitching arizona has
about a one seventy favorite. Here total is, high and
it's high for a. Reason twelve to the over minus.
Fifteen AND i recently, said And i've said it a
few times on this that getaway games are DAYS i
like to like to play the. Unders, well this is
not a getaway. Game arizona just played In, texas the
best pitching park In Major League baseball this, year but
they managed five runs a. Game they scored fifteen runs
Against texas In. Texas that's pretty. Good and they go
from the worst or the best pitching park In Major
League baseball to the worst pitching park In Major Lee,
baseball and That's. Colorado it doesn't help The colorado's pitcher.
Stink but you also have to worry about the altitude.
There so you Got rodriguez coming in, here And i'm
not much of a fan of. His he's he's dealt
with injuries the last couple of. Years you, Know i've
got to take that with a grand. Salt BUT i
just talked about schoobles pitching run. Values this is just
the Opposite edward Or. Rodriguez first percentile in pitching run,
value fourth percentile in breaking run, value one first, percentile
and allspreed run. Value he's in the thirteenth in the
fastball run. Value he's a guy that throws the for
seemer forty pc of the. Time and yet he throws
it one mile an hour less than an average left
handed starter In Major League. Baseball he's going to get
Hit colorado can hit it. HOME i don't want to
play On colorado when they go on the, road BUT
i like the situation For colorado today here and we're
getting to go against the. PITCHER i think they're gonna
have some value On Brady blaylock Or bradley Blayloc excuse,
me too many bees there on my tongue at early
in the. Morning but he has got a lot of
blue on his statas. Page his pitcherre on value seventh,
percentile fastball, sixth breaking ball, nineteenth and all speed. Thirtieth
he comes. In keep in mind last year he started
six out of seven games For colorado five point eight
SEVEN era one point seven nine. Whip that was thirty
innings this year and forty three innings seven point eight
NINE era one point seven to one. Whip he's first
percentile In Major League baseball and expected batting average fifth,
percentage strikeout, percentage and he throws his four seam fastball
forty six percent of the. Time once, Again arizona's going
from the worst hitting ballpark to the best hitting, ballpark
And i'm gonna play this over twelve minus one fifteen
is my best bet on the show.
Speaker 1: Today can't can't argue with. THAT i kind OF i
think there's some value on The rockies here. Too wouldn't
be surprised if The, rockies you, know won this. Game
they've played a little bit better this week they're at.
HOME i think the pit you, know AS. Edwarda, rodriguez
has been so bad that the pitching is. COMPARABLE i,
think you, Know rockies on the run line catching. IT
i know IT'S i know the run line doesn't have
as much value because it's the home team and you've
got a big, Total but The rockies are very good
at finding ways to lose. Games so like catching a
run and a half here at even money also seems
like a good bet to. Me let, ME i do
you have a just any odd? Screed what's your what's
your big on that over?
Speaker 2: Twelve over twelve is minus one. Fifteen if you did
want to play plus the one and a, half you
can Get colorado plus one and a, half a basically
plus one. Hundred.
Speaker 1: YEAH i, mean, listen Like i've talked about The rockies
and the plus one and a half vane a lot this,
week haven't bet. It i'm not sure That i'm just
like even Betting rockies games at this. Point but there
was a couple times earlier in this week where that
plus one and a half cashed against The. Cardinals actually
did that cash every game of that series against The,
cardinals it might. HAVE i think it, might or at
least two of the. Three they they played a pretty
good series against A cardinals team that just could not.
Hit earlier this, week but you, know The, rockies like,
again they're they're hanging. Around back to back. Wins, Yes
rockies plus one and a half cash in all three
games In Saint. Louis i'm not, saying, Like, listen The
rockies had a stretch a couple of weeks ago where
they played some good. Ball they're coming in off back
to back. Wins they're coming. Home This arizona team right
now is just not like they know they're sort of
out of the playoff. Mix even though they kind of
keep winning a game here and, there they're never going
to get to the playoffs with. That and now you've
got and. Water rodriguez has been. Awful he's in Altitude
diamondbacks bullpen's used up from The rangers. Series they're at
the Altitude rockies said have been, hitting especially when they
play at, home And blaylock is a you, know just
he's just gonna get. Mauled he's not a big league.
Pitcher SO i, like you're Over AND i still, like
even Though blaylock is a little bit terrifying to, BACK
i still feel like The rockies end up on the
right side of this. Game that's what this is what
my gut. Says SO i would Throw rockies run in
a half out if you want the. Side But, BRIAN
i like your total better than my side. Play So
i'm glad that that's in the. Parlay AND i got
some pushback for The. Mets almost makes me like it
a little bit. More, BRIAN i don't, know are people are, like, what, like,
LISTEN i get it they haven't played well right, now
but are we just really gonna just like write This
mets team off in the middle Of august with all
the pitching and all the all the all the bullpen
arms and all the talent on that, Team what what
do we have For mets money? Line right? NOW i
know IT'S i know it's, inflated but this is such
a good spot for. Them it it's it's why are
we giving The braves any? Credit The braves are, Awful
they've they've quit the. Like the thing, is like The
braves they have a win here and, there and they're
hitting the ball a little. Bit but, like if you
want to talk about a team that's probably gonna roll
over in the past in the last five or six,
weeks it's gonna be A braves team that is mostly.
Veterans it's gonna you, know it's dawned on them that
they're not gonna go to the playoffs this. Year, Listen
i'm gonna be really shocked if The mets dropped this
series to The. Braves, so of, course The mets won
thirteen to five at home On, tuesday they lose the
game last. Night this is just a series they have to.
Have they've got all their bullpen. ARMS i still Think
sega is gonna be better than he's been to this
point in the. Season So i'm gonna Go mets money.
Line what's my what's what's the price?
Speaker 2: Here, yeah roughly it's about a one anywhere from one
eighty five to one ninety. Five we'll call it pay.
IT i would have played The mets hit The mets
hitting to have. Success maybe a team total over if
you're not A mets fan in this, game but, yeah
It's atlanta With elder on the, mound not good and
the bullpens pitched a little bit better than you expect.
Lately but, yeah we're looking at The, mets AND i
hate to play do. SYSTEMS i actually played The mets
once this, week and of course they. Lost BUT i
won't get there with, you But i'll be wishing you very,
well and it makes a lot of sense to play,
them BUT i just, MYSELF i can't lay, it But
i'm gonna wish you the, best and for all of
everybody on the, show let's catch this.
Speaker 1: Partlay, Yep Bob Colin gregory Says mets first five team. Total, yeah,
LISTEN i don't dislike any of Those mets over, options
BUT i do think like a significant part of my
handicap on this one is the fact THAT i really feel,
like if this is a close game, Late i'm getting
every top reliever no, tomorrow BECAUSE i do feel, like,
listen it's not even really the do theory for, Me,
brian because they just won On. TUESDAY i really feel
like going into the, series The mets probably went in
with the, mentality we have to have this. Series after
choking that, series choking that finale away against The brewers
and getting, swept it was we have to take this
series at. Home and so of course yesterday gets out of.
Hand it's eleven to. Five now you've Got, sega that's
an edge and starting. Pitching now you've got das every
bullpen arm you could could want is gonna be ready to.
GO i just think The mets are gonna get a
lead at some point and they're not gonna give it.
Back So i'll put The mets in the. Parlay it's
not a very juicy parlay, today but you know, what
we need to win. One so we're gonna try to
just stack and Here i'm gonna Go mets money line
minus one Ninety Brian leonard's going d backs rockies over the.
Total that's over twelve little two teamer For thursday plus
one eighty. Five but it's. ONE i like a. LOT
i think we're GONNA i think we're gonna get, there and,
HEY i got we're gonna show up at nine am tomorrow, morning,
regardless so you can, either you, know come back and
tell me how WRONG i was about The. Mets BUT
i don't think that's gonna be the. CASE i think
they're gonna win tonight and so hopefully we cash our.
Parlay right, THERE i probably should have See Tokyo bran
is not, here AND i forget to promote during the.
SHOW i will, say but the, Chat travis in the
chat has done a good job promoting for, me SO
i haven't even had to do. It he's pointed out
my run a couple of. Times i'm coming into. TODAY
i think that's what it. IS i think it's eighteen and. Two,
actually if you go back the day, before we'll call
eleven in one is WHAT i posted on the site
because that was, LIKE i don't like to say a
run happened like in the middle of a. DAY i
think if you're gonna quote a, run it's gotta be
like starting a clean, day because it's like if you
go if you lose the first three in a certain,
day but then you win the last, two like you
can't just start with the last two, that you know
What i'm. Saying it's like it's got to start with
a clean, day so eleven to one is. Accurate that
goes back to like Last, SATURDAY i, think AND i
one four percent In Major League. Baseball that goes. Today
that is up currently on my. Page do you have
anything to promote, Today, Brian.
Speaker 2: I'm still working on the. PLAYS i have had five
straight winning, days a couple of four percent winners the
last couple of. Days, yeah on a nice little. Run
chances are you may have already gotten what may be
my best, play and that's the over in The colorado.
Game so nothing to promote is of. Yet But i'm
going to continue to look at the lineups and we'll
see what you get as the day goes.
Speaker 1: On all, right, guys, everyone have a great. Day once
again the parlay two. Teamer i've got The mets money.
Line brian's got D, Backs rockies over the. Total appreciate
you spending Your thursday morning with, us and we'll be
back to close out the week in a proper, fashion
the three of us tomorrow to finish it off nine Am,
eastern as we are every weekday right here in the
way you talking YouTube. Channel have a great day. Everyone
we'll see you guy simorrow