1
00:00:02,319 --> 00:00:04,759
Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It's Thursday. It's time for

2
00:00:04,839 --> 00:00:08,119
Total Bass. I'm here with my two co hosts, Brian

3
00:00:08,199 --> 00:00:11,000
Leonard Tokyo Brandon. Guys. I look through the schedule this morning.

4
00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,640
I'm fairly certain that this is the last Thursday with

5
00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:20,079
like very minimal games. I think we're smooth saling basically

6
00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:22,199
the rest of the way. I don't think there's a

7
00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:24,640
day that there's less than like six or seven games.

8
00:00:24,679 --> 00:00:27,199
So this will this will be the last sort of

9
00:00:27,199 --> 00:00:30,960
show where you know there's there's a very water down slate.

10
00:00:31,079 --> 00:00:33,679
Not sure why they did it, maybe trying to trying

11
00:00:33,679 --> 00:00:36,960
to build in mutually mutual off days in case there's

12
00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,320
rain now and so on and so forth. But Major

13
00:00:39,399 --> 00:00:42,039
League Baseball has done it again Thursday, August seventh, and

14
00:00:42,039 --> 00:00:45,159
there's four games. So the good news is not worried

15
00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,840
about the chat and requesting games today. We're just gonna

16
00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,640
go right in order. We're gonna do all four. However,

17
00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:53,960
if you do have a question, especially if it's a

18
00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:59,719
betting specific like theory betting process question, today is a

19
00:00:59,759 --> 00:01:02,200
great day to get that out and get that answered.

20
00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,159
And someone's already DMB one, so we'll get through the

21
00:01:05,159 --> 00:01:08,760
four games, and then we'll also answer any questions that

22
00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:12,200
you have just in general about betting Major League Baseball,

23
00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:15,000
because I really truly believe we're three of the best

24
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,120
to do it, and you got us for an hour.

25
00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,920
So let's get started. Right down the board. We have

26
00:01:22,439 --> 00:01:26,239
what was very entertaining game yesterday. Brian leonarded and not

27
00:01:26,359 --> 00:01:28,480
in the way I thought it would be. The Oakland

28
00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:33,280
A's and the Washington Nationals were dueling it out. Jeffrey

29
00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,799
Springs had a no hitter going for I think he

30
00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:38,000
actually had a perfect game going for a period of time.

31
00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:42,040
And then Kade Cavali look great. That was a guy

32
00:01:42,079 --> 00:01:44,359
that's battled injury for you know, pretty much since he

33
00:01:44,439 --> 00:01:47,000
was a first round pick back in twenty twenty. Nats

34
00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,560
finally snapped there losing streak, and now they come back

35
00:01:50,599 --> 00:01:53,120
and do it all again. I think noon Eastern today,

36
00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,760
So A's Nationals. Do you think the Nats can build

37
00:01:56,879 --> 00:01:57,760
on that momentum here?

38
00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,840
Speaker 2: I was very happy to see Keate Cavali back in

39
00:02:01,879 --> 00:02:06,000
the majors. This is a guy reminds me a lot

40
00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,919
of like the Steven Strasburg and some others that have

41
00:02:09,159 --> 00:02:13,439
just been so good and then they continue to get hurt.

42
00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:19,039
He pitched pretty well yesterday. He's a guy that should

43
00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:24,039
be a mainstay in their rotation for the next six years,

44
00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,680
at least until his contract runs out, and until he

45
00:02:26,719 --> 00:02:28,400
gets good and has to trade. They have to trade

46
00:02:28,479 --> 00:02:32,360
him like all the other lower market teams. But yeah,

47
00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,319
I was very happy to see that. Today we've got

48
00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,479
Lopez going on the road buff lefties. By the way,

49
00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,639
Lopez against Parker Lopez about a one thirty one thirty

50
00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,639
two favorite total of nine. It's not often you find

51
00:02:47,879 --> 00:02:51,120
the Athletics as a road favorite, but there is a

52
00:02:51,319 --> 00:02:58,120
pretty good differential here. In starting pitching, Lopez is got

53
00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,240
a lot of rat On his stack cast page, she

54
00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,159
comes in with a three point nine ninety ra three

55
00:03:03,199 --> 00:03:05,680
point seven to two expected one point three four whip

56
00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,159
a little high in that regard. He is a flyball pitcher,

57
00:03:09,159 --> 00:03:11,159
though he's only in the second percentile in the ground

58
00:03:11,199 --> 00:03:14,960
ball rate fastball velocity only in the eighth percentiles, So

59
00:03:16,319 --> 00:03:17,879
he's a left eighth that's not going to beat you

60
00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,199
with his four seam role though that's what he really

61
00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:24,400
throws most of the time thirty nine percent he throws

62
00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,840
five pitchers, but really only four he uses double digits,

63
00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,879
but some of his other things it looked really sharp

64
00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:35,840
on his age, extension ninety fourth percentile, hard hit rate

65
00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:40,120
ninety first average Backson velocity eighty ninth. So he's a

66
00:03:40,159 --> 00:03:45,159
guy that we like. But he started off terrific and

67
00:03:45,199 --> 00:03:47,599
then he struggled, and I think now we know what

68
00:03:47,639 --> 00:03:49,639
we've got out of him, and it's still better than

69
00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:53,120
what Mitchell Parker does. And that's a shame because he

70
00:03:53,199 --> 00:03:55,439
looked decent last year. I mean last year he came

71
00:03:55,439 --> 00:03:58,879
in four point twenty ninety RA one point three zero whip.

72
00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:00,800
You know, it was his rookie see and not bad.

73
00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,599
He wants seven to ten for Washington losing a losing

74
00:04:03,639 --> 00:04:08,000
baseball team. But this year five point three five ERA,

75
00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,080
five point five six expected one point four to seven

76
00:04:11,199 --> 00:04:17,079
whip part hit rate first percentile, strikeout right fourth percentile,

77
00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:21,560
amade Jackson velocity first. He's just been getting head hard.

78
00:04:22,079 --> 00:04:24,720
His extension is really good. He's six foot four, eighty

79
00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,519
fifth percentle. His chase rate's pretty good at seventy one percent.

80
00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:32,279
But other than that, he has really struggled, and especially

81
00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:34,920
if you take a look at some of his last

82
00:04:34,959 --> 00:04:38,160
few starts, his last time out against the Brewers, he

83
00:04:38,319 --> 00:04:41,800
just got bombed eight earned runs and four innings. He

84
00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,000
seems pretty decent when he played the Twins and the

85
00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,680
Padres before that, but he got bombed by the Milwaukee

86
00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:52,639
Brewers the time before that, again seven earned runs at

87
00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,439
four and two thirds innings, and then the Red Sox

88
00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,480
set him pretty well. So he's hasn't given up less

89
00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:01,519
than tour runs since you go all the way back

90
00:05:01,519 --> 00:05:04,600
to when you played the Colorado Rockies at home back

91
00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,959
on June eighteenth. So we know we're going to get

92
00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,920
a good amount of runs out of this Athletics team.

93
00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:16,079
The total on this game is nine. Their team total

94
00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,560
has to be in the five range. I would think

95
00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,000
at this point they're gonna get that five. They're gonna

96
00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,920
get five or six in this game. And I'm not

97
00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,920
so sure Washington has that ability to get that many

98
00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:31,720
against the Athletics. I'd like the Athletics pitching staff a

99
00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:36,319
little bit better. Washington's bullpen is horrendous. So they've got

100
00:05:36,399 --> 00:05:39,040
a pitcher who's pitching terribly and they got to bullpen

101
00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:43,959
that is terrible, and they shut them down yesterday. I

102
00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,240
you know, it's usually these early games you tend to

103
00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,560
lean towards the under a little bit because teams aren't

104
00:05:49,639 --> 00:05:52,480
used to playing it at this time. This is an

105
00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,439
analytics team that's gonna be playing at nine o'clock Pacific

106
00:05:56,079 --> 00:06:00,600
in here in Las Vegas, California. Whatever. That might be

107
00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,319
something to look at, but I don't want any part

108
00:06:03,319 --> 00:06:05,160
of Washington. You know, I'll probably set this one out.

109
00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:11,759
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna right off the right, off the top

110
00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,959
of the right out of the gate. I'm gonna do

111
00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:19,000
my parleg leg right here. It's gonna be the Oakland A's.

112
00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:24,279
Well whatever, A's team total over four and a half. Uh,

113
00:06:24,319 --> 00:06:27,480
it's four and a half right now at minus one thirteen.

114
00:06:28,399 --> 00:06:34,720
So here's why. You know, when I compare two teams together,

115
00:06:34,879 --> 00:06:37,040
I like them to be ten or more points apart

116
00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:39,959
for me to take it to take a side, And

117
00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:44,439
the A's actually are about fourteen points better than Washington

118
00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,680
here with all the factors in. As a matter of fact,

119
00:06:48,399 --> 00:06:52,519
the A's my numbers really like Lopez, but I don't,

120
00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:54,920
which is why I'm not going to take them on

121
00:06:54,959 --> 00:06:58,120
the side here. Although my numbers tell me to the

122
00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,600
A's ranked number three and hitting in current form right

123
00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:06,120
now and Washington ranks nineteen. Both bullpens pretty trashy at

124
00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:10,399
the moment, but Washington's is horrible. They rank second to

125
00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,639
last in all of MLB in current form, and Mitchell

126
00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,639
Parker I have him twenty six on a curve of thirty.

127
00:07:16,759 --> 00:07:20,399
So when you have a starting pitcher that ranks that low,

128
00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:25,000
a bullpen that's in this terrible current form against the

129
00:07:25,199 --> 00:07:28,720
MLB lineup that ranks, according to my numbers, number three

130
00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,759
in Major League Baseball right now, that's that's an over

131
00:07:33,519 --> 00:07:35,519
for their team total. The reason I don't want to

132
00:07:35,519 --> 00:07:38,360
play them on the side is because I think Lopez

133
00:07:38,399 --> 00:07:43,360
has a walk problem. According to this he's walking about

134
00:07:43,399 --> 00:07:46,000
forty six percent of the guys he's striking out, which

135
00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,040
is too high for me. I like it to be

136
00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:51,959
between thirty and forty percent. Mitchell Parker's at fifty five

137
00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,519
percent for that number, so he's bad too. But I

138
00:07:54,519 --> 00:07:56,879
don't think the A's will have any trouble putting guys

139
00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:00,560
on base and knocking them in. We've talked about this

140
00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:04,439
team in shows before, a lot of young guys who

141
00:08:04,439 --> 00:08:08,040
can really smack it good, So I think, uh, I

142
00:08:08,079 --> 00:08:10,319
think they will today. I think four and a half

143
00:08:10,399 --> 00:08:15,839
is Okay, it's high, but I think I think they'll

144
00:08:15,839 --> 00:08:16,319
get there.

145
00:08:19,319 --> 00:08:21,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, i'd agree with that. I think they get there.

146
00:08:21,519 --> 00:08:24,199
Probably it's more likely they get there, in my opinion,

147
00:08:24,319 --> 00:08:27,519
toward the end of the game, because you know, you

148
00:08:27,879 --> 00:08:32,320
go back and you're just I'm gonna work backward here.

149
00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,240
Both of these bullpens are horrific, like these are these

150
00:08:35,279 --> 00:08:37,600
are right now, and you also have to take out

151
00:08:37,639 --> 00:08:40,159
like you look at the A's bullpen and you have

152
00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,799
to take Mason Miller out of there, and like some

153
00:08:42,879 --> 00:08:45,360
of the guys that have really helped those bullpen numbers

154
00:08:45,399 --> 00:08:48,639
are now gone. So I would not argue with you

155
00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:51,480
if you if you said these are the two worst

156
00:08:51,519 --> 00:08:53,799
bullpens in Major League Baseball right now. I think that's

157
00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:58,279
a fair assessment based on who's actually down there, not

158
00:08:58,279 --> 00:09:00,399
not only to not do the numbers suggest that that's

159
00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,480
the case, but who's actually down there throwing the ball

160
00:09:03,519 --> 00:09:05,799
in today's game. I think you can make a pretty

161
00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:10,399
like that. That's a pretty reasonable thing to say. So,

162
00:09:10,879 --> 00:09:13,039
no matter who you decide to take here, and that's

163
00:09:13,039 --> 00:09:16,320
why TV, I feel like you're probably onto something with

164
00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:18,799
like you know, going for your team total, no matter

165
00:09:18,799 --> 00:09:20,159
who you have to take here, you are going to

166
00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,440
have to survive probably, you know, at a minimum of

167
00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:27,159
three innings of a very poor bullpen, where things could

168
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,639
completely go off the rails. Now I would the A's

169
00:09:30,759 --> 00:09:33,360
sort of popped up on. You know, it's a short board,

170
00:09:33,399 --> 00:09:36,120
and obviously my list is short. The A's look like

171
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,759
a really good option today when I look at you know,

172
00:09:40,039 --> 00:09:42,120
Mitchell Parker's not a guy I want to back at all.

173
00:09:42,799 --> 00:09:45,279
The only problem I have is the A's tend to

174
00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,399
profile a little bit better against right handed pitching. So

175
00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:52,159
you know that they have some guys that don't have

176
00:09:52,159 --> 00:09:55,039
as high an ops against lefties. It's a lineup that

177
00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,919
I think is optimal against right handed pitching. Doesn't mean

178
00:09:57,960 --> 00:09:59,919
they can't hit a guy like Mitchell Parker. And you

179
00:10:00,039 --> 00:10:04,480
could say the same thing really about the Nationals. Something

180
00:10:04,519 --> 00:10:08,919
I talked about yesterday. The Nationals are much better against

181
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,159
right handed pitching. There was a point in time when

182
00:10:11,159 --> 00:10:14,519
the Nationals were really playing good May into early June

183
00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,720
where their lineup was nine left handed batters, and then

184
00:10:17,759 --> 00:10:20,679
they basically would you know, when they did face a lefty,

185
00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,360
A couple of those guys are switch hitters. They maybe

186
00:10:24,399 --> 00:10:26,720
would play Dylan Cruz, Well, Dylan Cruz is down at

187
00:10:26,759 --> 00:10:29,600
Rochester right now, so he's not even on the team

188
00:10:29,639 --> 00:10:32,039
at this point. So you want to talk about like

189
00:10:32,919 --> 00:10:35,159
a team like there, and look at what happened yesterday.

190
00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:38,759
You had Jeffrey Springs taking a no hitter, perfect game,

191
00:10:38,799 --> 00:10:41,080
no hitter into like the fifth or sixth inning. So

192
00:10:41,759 --> 00:10:44,960
this is not a Nats lineup that profiles to do

193
00:10:45,039 --> 00:10:47,200
well against left handed pitching, and they didn't last night.

194
00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:50,120
They just happened to win a low scoring game. But

195
00:10:50,159 --> 00:10:51,519
how many times are you going to be able to

196
00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:53,320
say that? How many how many times are you gonna

197
00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,159
be able to say, oh, the Nats grinded out of

198
00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,159
two to one win. It's not gonna happen very often.

199
00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,679
I look at Lopez the stat cast page which Brian

200
00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,639
brought up. There's a lot to like there. He's a

201
00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,559
guy that I think, and we don't really know his

202
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,679
ceiling yet because he doesn't have a huge sample size

203
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,360
at the big league level, but he's done it at

204
00:11:10,399 --> 00:11:13,360
Triple A, and you know, for the most part, he's

205
00:11:13,399 --> 00:11:15,960
been very good. I think he's got bombed once or twice,

206
00:11:16,279 --> 00:11:19,120
but other than that, he's been very solid in Major

207
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:22,200
League Baseball so far this year, So the A's is

208
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:24,120
the only way I could play it. And TV, I

209
00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,080
think you're off to a good start with the parlay.

210
00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,000
I think the A's are going to do enough to

211
00:11:28,279 --> 00:11:29,759
win this game and score those runs.

212
00:11:29,799 --> 00:11:32,960
Speaker 2: Brian, go ahead, Yeah, I really thought this was going

213
00:11:33,039 --> 00:11:34,759
to be a five and a four and a half

214
00:11:34,799 --> 00:11:37,679
and you're getting him basically minus one nineteen or so.

215
00:11:37,799 --> 00:11:40,120
That's not a bad bet at all. I do want

216
00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:42,320
to point out, and I'm a big proponent of the

217
00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:46,320
Fangrass page, the roster resource. Mister Martinez does a terrific

218
00:11:46,399 --> 00:11:51,879
job on here, and TV is nice enough to produce

219
00:11:51,879 --> 00:11:54,080
his numbers every day on the website and you can

220
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,360
download those. But if you take a look at there's

221
00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,600
thirty teams in Major League Baseball, so when you're looking

222
00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:01,799
at the top one hundred each team, if they were equal,

223
00:12:02,159 --> 00:12:05,000
they would have about three guys in the top one hundred.

224
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,120
If you take a look at the bullpen the last

225
00:12:08,159 --> 00:12:12,679
fourteen days, the best pitcher out of the bullpen for

226
00:12:13,279 --> 00:12:16,840
the Nationals has been PJ. Poland, who they just pulled

227
00:12:16,919 --> 00:12:19,399
up from Triple A. Only he's only thrown thirteen pitches

228
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,720
on Tuesday and he's ninety one. Everybody else is in

229
00:12:22,759 --> 00:12:25,480
the one sixty and higher range, and that includes their

230
00:12:25,639 --> 00:12:28,919
new closer. I guess he's your closer, you know, Jose Ferrer.

231
00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,759
But this team's bullpen is really bad. And if you

232
00:12:32,799 --> 00:12:35,240
take a look at they break down the hitting as well,

233
00:12:36,039 --> 00:12:39,600
and in the last seven days their best hitter is

234
00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:44,159
Drew Millis, the catcher, and he's ranked one twelve. They've

235
00:12:44,159 --> 00:12:46,039
got a lot of guys that are really not hitting

236
00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:50,360
well right now. James Wood three twenty seven, Josh Bell

237
00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:54,000
three forty one, Nathaniel Low three twenty three. So you've

238
00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,679
got a team in Washington that is not hitting right

239
00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:02,759
now and their bullpen is really bad. The is may

240
00:13:02,799 --> 00:13:06,039
be worth that favorite situation here, but I think the

241
00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,200
right way to play this is just what TB talked about,

242
00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:10,559
and that would be the team total.

243
00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,799
Speaker 1: Over station play SS. Total Base is my number one

244
00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,440
morning show. We very much appreciate that we're here Monday

245
00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,279
to Friday, nine am, every day of the baseball season.

246
00:13:20,799 --> 00:13:25,600
So if you don't if you can spare thirty seconds,

247
00:13:25,759 --> 00:13:28,720
head down below or head over to YouTube, give us

248
00:13:29,039 --> 00:13:32,080
a like and a subscribe on the YouTube channel on

249
00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:35,039
the YouTube replay, maybe drop a comment. It really does

250
00:13:35,279 --> 00:13:38,399
help our show. Since we've got time and there's only

251
00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:40,639
four games, I'm gonna hit some questions like this. So

252
00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:42,840
I think this is a good segue from what we

253
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:44,600
were talking about, and we'll make it a little bit

254
00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:48,000
more general. So Eve Evans says, what's the best approach

255
00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:52,000
to handicapping relief pitching? Brian, you kind of started to

256
00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,879
talk about it in the context of the Nationals A's game,

257
00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,919
but can you just expand that to like your general

258
00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,080
approach to handicapping bullpens.

259
00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:06,360
Speaker 2: Bullpens all depends if you ask me. They all depend

260
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,600
on the usage patterns. If you've got a team that's

261
00:14:10,879 --> 00:14:13,200
got their starting rotation and they're all going five or

262
00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,799
six innings, your bullpen should be in pretty good shape

263
00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:19,879
if you handicap both. This is the one thing from

264
00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,559
year to year you can handicap what you're going to

265
00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:26,320
do from a hitting standpoint. You get a pretty good

266
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:30,759
idea from a starter standpoint, depending on injuries, You've got

267
00:14:30,799 --> 00:14:34,320
a pretty good idea in the bullpens. One year and

268
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,679
TV cabret back me up on this. One year a

269
00:14:36,679 --> 00:14:40,000
team will be great, but look at the Dodgers the Dridders.

270
00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,159
In the offseason, we thought the Dodgers' bullpen was going

271
00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,360
to be the greatest thing to slice bread. And because

272
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,559
of this starting pitching injuries on that team, they have

273
00:14:48,639 --> 00:14:51,320
had to pitch a lot more and they're not really

274
00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:55,320
able to be healthy and so they're not going to

275
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,200
be as good. So from a bullpen standpoint, you got

276
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:02,240
to realize these players are all for the most part,

277
00:15:02,279 --> 00:15:06,559
they're all pretty in the same range, but it all

278
00:15:06,559 --> 00:15:10,480
depends on how often they're being used. And right now,

279
00:15:10,559 --> 00:15:12,720
Washington starting pitcher has been so bad all year, the

280
00:15:12,759 --> 00:15:15,519
bullpen just is being used up. So you continue to

281
00:15:15,559 --> 00:15:18,360
bring guys up and down from the miners, and they

282
00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:20,159
just like I just said, they're brought the two guys

283
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,360
up this week from the miners. So it's hard to

284
00:15:23,559 --> 00:15:26,919
take a look at it. If it's starting from doing well,

285
00:15:27,879 --> 00:15:30,240
your bullpen should be doing well. Now if they're not,

286
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:35,399
then you know you've got a really bad bullpen. Yeah.

287
00:15:35,399 --> 00:15:40,480
Speaker 3: The way I approach it is so bullpen is basically

288
00:15:40,799 --> 00:15:43,960
a team of guys, and what you have to do

289
00:15:44,399 --> 00:15:49,759
is current form is pretty important. Like Brian mentioned, a

290
00:15:49,799 --> 00:15:54,240
winning team is automatically not automatically, but generally they're gonna

291
00:15:54,279 --> 00:15:57,320
have a better They're gonna have better bullpen numbers. We've

292
00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,480
talked about this on previous shows. If you're a lot

293
00:16:00,519 --> 00:16:04,120
of games, it means you're going to leverage your best guys.

294
00:16:04,399 --> 00:16:07,639
We've talked about this many times. The Rockies have had

295
00:16:07,679 --> 00:16:10,399
before the trade deadline, had had some serious talent in

296
00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:12,320
their bullpen, but they never used them because they were

297
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,879
always getting beat twenty to ten and just throwing out

298
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,519
you know, raggedy Ann and Andy out there to get

299
00:16:20,559 --> 00:16:25,039
smacked around the rest of the game. So that's one thing.

300
00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:29,639
Another factor is who who in the bullpen has been

301
00:16:29,759 --> 00:16:33,240
leveraged a lot. You do have to keep track of

302
00:16:33,559 --> 00:16:36,639
whether the closer has been, you know, called on two

303
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:38,320
days in a row. You know he's not going to

304
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:40,360
pitch on that day, so you got to take a

305
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,080
look at who else is available, and if they suck,

306
00:16:43,159 --> 00:16:46,879
they suck, and you can bet against him in that situation.

307
00:16:48,519 --> 00:16:53,759
I like to look at for bullpens. I really like

308
00:16:53,799 --> 00:16:56,320
to look at whip because it tells you how many

309
00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:59,960
guys are putting on base, and you have to look

310
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:04,920
at it as a collection. Though, so grating starters predicting

311
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,319
how starters are going to play and predicting how bullpens

312
00:17:07,319 --> 00:17:10,160
are going to play totally different games. Starters are much

313
00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:14,079
easier to predict than bullpens are because bullpens have so

314
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:17,079
many factors and you have to cap them as a group.

315
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:24,759
Speaker 1: So I what I've noticed, probably in the last maybe

316
00:17:24,839 --> 00:17:29,359
five years, is that, like, I feel like the bullpen

317
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,000
usage is oftentimes baked into the number a little bit.

318
00:17:33,039 --> 00:17:35,400
And when I say that, it's like, Okay, if you

319
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,200
go back a decade, I feel like just it was

320
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:43,039
good enough to just track bullpen usage because I don't

321
00:17:43,039 --> 00:17:45,400
know that the books were paying attention to it as much,

322
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,680
And I feel like you could find some some real

323
00:17:47,759 --> 00:17:50,599
value just straight up being like this guy pitched two

324
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:52,240
of the last three days. This guy pitch three of

325
00:17:52,279 --> 00:17:54,200
the last four. Now, if you go over to MLB

326
00:17:54,319 --> 00:17:56,119
dot com, I mean, in two seconds, you can look

327
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,559
at it on a chart. Like So to think that

328
00:17:58,599 --> 00:18:03,079
the books are not very very conscious of who's pitched

329
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,480
and what teams have watered down bullpens, I think you'd

330
00:18:06,519 --> 00:18:08,880
be a little naive to think that they're not very

331
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,759
conscious of that. It takes two seconds to pull up

332
00:18:11,759 --> 00:18:13,799
that chart so if you can pull it up in

333
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,039
two seconds, so does any so can any sports book

334
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:20,000
operator making the lines for these games. So what I've

335
00:18:20,039 --> 00:18:23,680
personally started to do is and this I didn't really

336
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:27,160
think of this until I started really getting into handicapping

337
00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,640
Triple A Baseball and figuring out where the edges were there.

338
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,920
And it's like in Triple A it's all about spreading

339
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,359
out innings and like if a guy pitched today, he's

340
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,480
not gonna bitch tomorrow and stuff like that. So when

341
00:18:39,519 --> 00:18:42,920
I'm handicapping Triple A, I really look and say, okay,

342
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,119
like who who do I think this manager is going

343
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,599
to use today? And do I like that? And so

344
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:50,640
I've started to do that for Major League Baseball. So

345
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:54,000
if you're just asking the way I personally handicap all pens, yes,

346
00:18:54,039 --> 00:18:55,960
I've got the whip there, Yes I have all the

347
00:18:56,039 --> 00:18:59,359
all the numbers that are relevant you need to look at.

348
00:18:59,519 --> 00:19:01,839
But you also have to understand that the books look

349
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,640
at those numbers. So to find an edge, what I'll

350
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,279
tend to do is say, okay, so this is the

351
00:19:07,279 --> 00:19:10,559
starting pitcher, so I'm going to estimate three to four

352
00:19:10,599 --> 00:19:15,240
innings of bullpen usage. If I'm aj Hinch or if

353
00:19:15,319 --> 00:19:19,319
i'm you know, whatever head coach is coaching the game,

354
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,599
who am I going to use here in the sick

355
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,440
Who does it make sense to use in the sixth,

356
00:19:23,559 --> 00:19:25,319
Who does it make sense to use in the seventh.

357
00:19:25,559 --> 00:19:29,279
If they're not going to have Devin Williams available, it's

358
00:19:29,279 --> 00:19:31,039
a bad example. We don't want to why him out

359
00:19:31,079 --> 00:19:34,000
there anyway. Who is it going to be instead? And

360
00:19:34,039 --> 00:19:35,680
then I can start to get an idea. I'll give

361
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:37,960
you a perfect example. The game I talked about yesterday

362
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,839
with the Twins. I straight up told you with my handicap, Okay,

363
00:19:41,839 --> 00:19:44,640
Pierson Ole is probably going to pitch three to four innings.

364
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,279
They just signed Thomas Hatch, He's probably going to get

365
00:19:48,319 --> 00:19:50,279
out there. Is that a guy that I can live

366
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:52,759
with being out there for three to four innings? Well,

367
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,440
he's throwing the ball, Okay at Omaha, they probably haven't

368
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,960
seen him. He's probably fresh, So yeah, I can live

369
00:19:58,039 --> 00:19:59,519
with that. And then I kind of like and then

370
00:19:59,559 --> 00:20:01,799
I kind of make a note, Okay, now I'm at

371
00:20:01,839 --> 00:20:04,599
the seventh inning, what happens in the seventh tier who's

372
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:08,119
getting the leverage spot? And if I can sort of

373
00:20:08,279 --> 00:20:11,759
map it out and check all those boxes. Then I'm like,

374
00:20:11,839 --> 00:20:13,720
then I have to be Then I'm like okay with it.

375
00:20:13,799 --> 00:20:15,440
If I get to the eighth inning and I'm like,

376
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:20,000
oh shit, they're gonna have this guy in a leverage

377
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,279
spot and he's typically a seventh inning guy, or he

378
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:26,200
hasn't shown the ability to throw pitches in like a

379
00:20:26,279 --> 00:20:28,920
high leverage situation, then I probably got to punk the

380
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,000
brakes a little bit. So that's to me, that's how

381
00:20:31,039 --> 00:20:34,319
I'm personally handicapping bullpens. And I just go through the

382
00:20:34,319 --> 00:20:37,759
bullpen and I've got little pluses and minuses by someone

383
00:20:37,839 --> 00:20:40,039
that I think is better than where the market thinks

384
00:20:40,079 --> 00:20:42,240
they are or worse. And if I get a bunch

385
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,640
of pluses on a given day, I'm more likely to

386
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,359
bet that team. Go go ahead, Brian.

387
00:20:46,279 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just want to touch on two things. First

388
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,359
of all, if the team's on a losing streak, as

389
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,720
pbe mentioned, you're not going to use your better relievers.

390
00:20:53,799 --> 00:20:55,559
But they don't want him to go to way, so

391
00:20:55,599 --> 00:20:58,599
a lot of times they will be games the team

392
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,400
will be losing, you will get their best relievers because

393
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,599
they haven't pitched in a while. Now that's a good thing,

394
00:21:05,759 --> 00:21:07,960
but if you're a closer, and we've seen these over

395
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,200
the years, and you bring a closer into a non

396
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:14,039
safe situation, they just don't have the same the same

397
00:21:14,079 --> 00:21:17,079
mental ability to get pumped up in the situation like that.

398
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,400
And also as a secondary thing, if you do have

399
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,960
problems handicapping the bullpens, they got first five innings. Dave

400
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,400
Cochin made a living off the first five innings the

401
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,480
last a few years of his life, and he just

402
00:21:30,039 --> 00:21:32,119
had he got tired of being beaten late in the

403
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,000
game by bad bullpens, and so he played the first

404
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,200
five innings. That's a different way to get around it.

405
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 3: One other thing to mention is these guys are such

406
00:21:40,799 --> 00:21:43,079
creatures of habit. I've been around them when I was

407
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,880
a scout and there. If you've ever seen the movie

408
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:51,519
Major League, you know that one guy had the the doll.

409
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,039
He was like a voodoo guy in his life. Some

410
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,359
guys are actually like that. They have like all these

411
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:03,680
like good luck charm and stuff. Yeah, especially pictures and

412
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,119
pitchers more than hitters, And if you knock them off

413
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,440
their schedule just a little bit, they just go crazy.

414
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,640
And closers are no exception. Closers might be the worst

415
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,920
if you put a closer in the eighth inning, he

416
00:22:16,079 --> 00:22:20,400
just just freaks out, you know. So, yeah, these guys

417
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,880
are really they're humans and their creatures of habit.

418
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,759
Speaker 1: I'll add one thing, So, in typical Dave coch And fashion, though,

419
00:22:27,799 --> 00:22:29,799
he was ahead of the curve on that, so like

420
00:22:30,079 --> 00:22:33,640
he was he was ahead of doing that because I

421
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,319
remember when he sort of made that point, and this

422
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,119
was years ago. This was like years ago when he

423
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,440
kind of like was saw okay, starters, like teams just

424
00:22:42,519 --> 00:22:45,640
aren't having starters go as deep into games. I don't

425
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,480
want four innings of any Major League bullpen. But you

426
00:22:49,519 --> 00:22:52,319
can't really do that now because the books have gotten

427
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:55,799
so insanely good at pricing first five. It is so

428
00:22:56,039 --> 00:22:59,480
hard to find actual like first five value on a

429
00:22:59,559 --> 00:23:03,839
day to day basis that it's I mean, it's it's

430
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,279
still a good thought process, but when I look at

431
00:23:07,319 --> 00:23:09,839
the first five numbers, very rarely do I see like

432
00:23:11,039 --> 00:23:12,880
a ton of line value. I feel like the books

433
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,599
really and it makes sense because they're able to you're

434
00:23:16,599 --> 00:23:18,920
giving them a smaller window, like it's they're they're going

435
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,279
to be able to more accurately price stuff, and they're

436
00:23:21,319 --> 00:23:23,480
going to be able to move off. If anything, if

437
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,880
they make a mistake on a first five, it's quickly

438
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,640
exposed and it's moved to the to the right number.

439
00:23:28,759 --> 00:23:31,799
So I found that I find that very challenging to

440
00:23:31,839 --> 00:23:34,559
find line value on the first five. Not to say

441
00:23:34,599 --> 00:23:36,519
that it's not a good way to look at it,

442
00:23:36,559 --> 00:23:39,079
but I think the books have caught up to guys

443
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,200
like Cocain and you know who were doing that in

444
00:23:41,279 --> 00:23:45,279
twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, before before that was the thought

445
00:23:45,319 --> 00:23:49,680
process of virtually everyone handicapping baseball. But it's a really

446
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,720
interesting conversation. Evie Evans, thank you for that question. That

447
00:23:52,799 --> 00:23:56,119
was that. That was a great question, really good conversation.

448
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,440
I do really truly believe that the nuance of like

449
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,119
handicapped a bullpen is is the difference between you being

450
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,599
profitable and not vetting the sport. So it's a great question.

451
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,960
All right, let's get back to games. We still have

452
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,480
three of them, and DK, I don't know if you

453
00:24:12,519 --> 00:24:14,839
showed up a couple of minutes away, he said, athletics

454
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,559
runs so Tokyo Brandon's parlay wag is A's team total

455
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,960
over four and a half. And I think we all

456
00:24:21,039 --> 00:24:23,559
sort of agree that there could be some runs at

457
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,119
points in that game. But if you did show up late,

458
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,119
as always, head on over to the Ways you talk

459
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,480
to YouTube channel and just check out the replay which

460
00:24:31,519 --> 00:24:33,400
is up live. And if this show is live and

461
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,160
on demand every single day, all right, time to head

462
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,039
out west. I said that I thought there would be

463
00:24:40,039 --> 00:24:42,200
a good spot to jump in with the White Sox

464
00:24:42,279 --> 00:24:45,319
in this series at some point. I have not done

465
00:24:45,319 --> 00:24:47,039
it yet because I haven't found the good spot to

466
00:24:47,079 --> 00:24:48,839
do it yet. Brian Leonard, I don't know if that

467
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:53,279
spot is today either. The Mariners have dominated this series.

468
00:24:53,279 --> 00:24:55,240
I know the White Sox kind of made a little

469
00:24:55,319 --> 00:24:57,359
run last night. It was an eight to sixth final.

470
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,359
Do the Mariners complete the sweep today? And the do

471
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:01,720
they do it in convincing fashion?

472
00:25:01,799 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 2: Is the question got Smith? Smith going for the White

473
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:10,519
Sox Gilbert or Seattle. Gilbert's about a one eighty favored

474
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:12,960
or so right now, seven and a half to the

475
00:25:13,039 --> 00:25:17,960
under minus one twenty one, fifteen something to that range.

476
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:22,480
Shane Smith, if you take a look at his recent starts,

477
00:25:23,039 --> 00:25:27,319
he has not gone five innings since playing the Houston

478
00:25:27,319 --> 00:25:31,480
Astros on June tenth. We're looking at going backwards. We're

479
00:25:31,519 --> 00:25:34,880
looking at four point one, three, four point one, four

480
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,680
point two, two, four point one, and he's given up

481
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:40,680
at least tour and runs in each of those games.

482
00:25:40,759 --> 00:25:42,799
So I liked him earlier in the season. He was

483
00:25:42,839 --> 00:25:45,680
pitching pretty well. Right now, I'm not as big of

484
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,640
a fan his numbers. If you take a look at

485
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,880
the stadcast numbers, some red, some blue, some bad blue.

486
00:25:53,079 --> 00:25:57,279
Chase Ray twelfth percentile walk grade eighteenth are hit fourteenth.

487
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:02,039
He has regressed a little bit. He's got ninety one

488
00:26:02,039 --> 00:26:05,519
innings right now, eighty five strikeouts, so he's less than

489
00:26:05,559 --> 00:26:09,119
one strike operating. And you always have to take a

490
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,480
look at the bullpens when you've got a guy who's

491
00:26:12,519 --> 00:26:15,519
probably not going to go five innings and they're pretty

492
00:26:15,519 --> 00:26:17,839
set in the bullpen pretty well. A lot of that

493
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,759
is just like we talked about. They haven't been winning.

494
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,920
They have Grant Taylor is probably their closer. They got

495
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,640
a few guys they use, but he hasn't pitched since

496
00:26:26,799 --> 00:26:29,359
Friday the first. I'm sure he'll get in somehow in

497
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,640
this game. Steven Wilson's pitched only twice in the last

498
00:26:33,839 --> 00:26:37,759
you know, five days. Jordan Leisure has not pitched in

499
00:26:37,799 --> 00:26:42,079
the last four days, so they'll have their better relievers

500
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,960
going in today's game, I believe, even though they may

501
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,559
not be winning. So that's something to keep in mind

502
00:26:49,599 --> 00:26:52,519
when you're taking a look at the opposing pitcher. Obviously,

503
00:26:52,599 --> 00:26:55,920
Logan Gilbert, we know he's what he can do. He's

504
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,839
been a terrific pitcher in his career. This is his

505
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:00,759
fifth season. He comes in the three point four to

506
00:27:00,799 --> 00:27:04,359
five VRA two point seven to two expected zero point

507
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:08,359
eight nine. Went very good in that regard. The only

508
00:27:08,519 --> 00:27:11,880
negative on his chart is his average exs of velocity

509
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,079
in the twenty first percentile, but one hundredth percent tient

510
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,519
extension six foot six sat ball gets right on you,

511
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:19,759
and we take a look at the fastball of last sea.

512
00:27:19,759 --> 00:27:22,119
It's only the sixty eighth percentile, but that's still better

513
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:28,680
than league average. His his for saimer ninety five point four,

514
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,480
but he uses at the same amount as a slider

515
00:27:31,759 --> 00:27:33,720
and his sliders at thirty five percent, both of them

516
00:27:33,759 --> 00:27:36,920
thirty five percent split her twenty percent. So he's got

517
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,519
a really nice five pitch mix. But really it's it's

518
00:27:40,519 --> 00:27:43,680
the three that he uses the most that are really good.

519
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,680
Let's take a look at the Statle bullpen because they

520
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:53,039
have been winning, and we can see that they have

521
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,440
been able to use their better pitches as of late.

522
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,599
In fact, last night Munos went twenty six pitches. He

523
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:03,440
might not I pitched today twenty one for Bizarre Doohspire thirteen.

524
00:28:03,839 --> 00:28:08,079
So overall the last three days they've only had those

525
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,440
three guys really that have been pitching. On Tuesday, they

526
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,519
did use the bullpen game power. I had to pitch

527
00:28:13,599 --> 00:28:15,480
twenty and he's pitched really well out of the bullpen.

528
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,880
If you remember him from Kansas City, he was a starter.

529
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,599
He's been very good in the bullpen for Seattle in

530
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,839
casey look at me in thirty eight. So yeah, there,

531
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:29,799
both bullpens are in good shape here and which makes

532
00:28:29,839 --> 00:28:31,480
me look at the owner. But the line is seven

533
00:28:31,519 --> 00:28:35,079
and a half here in this game still I don't think.

534
00:28:36,839 --> 00:28:39,440
I think Seattle may get a little bit better hitting here,

535
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,960
but I don't want to lay that number. So at

536
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,279
this point I was luck you. I was hoping to

537
00:28:44,279 --> 00:28:47,000
get a place to play Chicago, but it looks like

538
00:28:47,039 --> 00:28:49,359
I'll be passing on them in the entire series, and

539
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,160
I don't want to lay that big number with Seattle.

540
00:28:53,359 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, when Brian mentioned it earlier. I have my pitcher

541
00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:02,079
projections up. I project the strikeouts, out hits, walks, all

542
00:29:02,119 --> 00:29:05,200
that for every starting pitcher, plus I ranked the bullpens

543
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:10,160
and the lineups. So you can download that for free

544
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,279
today because there's just a few games. Took me only

545
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:15,519
a few minutes to put it together, so it's free today.

546
00:29:15,599 --> 00:29:17,839
So go to my page the way you're talking, download that.

547
00:29:18,279 --> 00:29:22,440
I have an MLB playout, Brian certainly will Adam will

548
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:24,519
if he doesn't already, So go to our pages and

549
00:29:24,559 --> 00:29:26,599
see what we've got because we put free plays up

550
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:31,599
almost every day as well. Regarding this game, I would

551
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:36,960
really like to play the Mariners here, but I haven't yet,

552
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,680
and I'm not sure why I haven't. I got Gilbert

553
00:29:40,759 --> 00:29:42,880
ranked number four on a curve, but thirty out of

554
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,920
all starting pitchers. But if you look at his numbers

555
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:51,119
against these batters, not that great. Two eighty six average

556
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,720
against in seven to seventy nine ops against. That's not

557
00:29:54,759 --> 00:29:57,319
really good. But as people have been mentioning in the comments,

558
00:29:57,319 --> 00:30:00,519
he is a good home pitcher. But the White Sox

559
00:30:00,559 --> 00:30:03,480
I got them ranked number eight and hitting, and I

560
00:30:03,519 --> 00:30:07,920
got Seattle ranked number twenty in current form. I don't know.

561
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,440
I think my man Seattle's really been smacking the ball

562
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,319
the last two games, though, so I think I would

563
00:30:15,359 --> 00:30:19,400
bump those up just from the eye test. So obviously

564
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:23,759
Seattle has a much better bullpen. So I think Seattle

565
00:30:23,839 --> 00:30:26,880
will probably win this game. But my numbers don't give

566
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:31,799
me the projection I want to bet it. So do

567
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,640
I bet with my with my brain and my numbers,

568
00:30:35,759 --> 00:30:38,640
or do I bet with my heart. My eye test

569
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,400
and my feelings say Seattle should easily win this game,

570
00:30:43,359 --> 00:30:46,160
but my numbers say it'll be a tight game. So

571
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,920
I'm kind of stuck on this one. I haven't bet

572
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:49,640
it yet.

573
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm worried for the White Sox that this might

574
00:30:54,759 --> 00:30:57,880
be one of the one of the young team swoons

575
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,200
here that we've talked about right like it's it's almost

576
00:31:01,319 --> 00:31:04,920
unavoidable when you have a roster of all first and

577
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,079
second year players, a lot of young guys, which is

578
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,640
essentially what the White Sox roster is now. We've seen

579
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,799
it with the Marlins at times. We're seeing one right

580
00:31:14,839 --> 00:31:18,119
now with the Nationals the A's. The A's were the

581
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,200
best example of this earlier when they lost like twenty

582
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,799
one of twenty two games, and they tend to come

583
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:29,400
after a period of playing well. So it's like this

584
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,480
White Sox group got a taste of having a little

585
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,720
bit of success out of the All Star break. They're

586
00:31:35,759 --> 00:31:38,960
playing well, guys are having a good time, things are going,

587
00:31:39,119 --> 00:31:42,519
things are going really good. Suddenly they've lost three straight,

588
00:31:43,599 --> 00:31:46,799
starting to make mistakes. They're not you know, they're not

589
00:31:46,839 --> 00:31:48,799
getting the timely hits anymore. So there's a couple of

590
00:31:48,839 --> 00:31:53,279
guys slumping. So I wouldn't be that surprised if the

591
00:31:53,319 --> 00:31:56,039
White Sox if this losing streak lasted a little longer

592
00:31:56,079 --> 00:31:58,119
than three games, you know, especially with what they have

593
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,279
coming up. Now they're going to be home. They have

594
00:32:00,279 --> 00:32:05,359
a home stand coming up, but it's going to be Guardians, Tigers, Royals,

595
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,920
three teams that really really need wins over the next

596
00:32:09,039 --> 00:32:12,720
ten days. Like, it wouldn't surprise me at all if

597
00:32:12,759 --> 00:32:15,000
the White Sox fell into these one of these sort

598
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,200
of stretches where they lose eight of nine, because all

599
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,599
the other young teams have done it this year and

600
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,400
now this group is finally finally starting to face some adversity.

601
00:32:24,519 --> 00:32:26,480
You want to talk about running out of gas, I

602
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:28,839
think that's what we've seen with Shane Smith. I mean,

603
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:30,440
the guy was an All Star. He had an all

604
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:35,480
Star caliber first half, especially if you throw out June

605
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,640
into July, and he was clearly just out of gas.

606
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,920
They they I don't know what the exact reason was,

607
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,160
but he definitely went on the il or he got

608
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,920
like a ten day stint, probably just to give him

609
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,440
some time off after his appearance in the All Star Game.

610
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,519
I don't think he pitched. He pitched the one inning

611
00:32:53,559 --> 00:32:55,759
in the All Star Game, and then he wasn't. He

612
00:32:55,799 --> 00:32:59,039
didn't pitch until August first, which was his most recent

613
00:32:59,119 --> 00:33:02,039
outing against the Angels, where he did look a little

614
00:33:02,079 --> 00:33:04,440
bit better. So he got, you know, into the fifth inning.

615
00:33:04,839 --> 00:33:07,599
He didn't get totally blown up. Still four walks a

616
00:33:07,599 --> 00:33:11,279
little bit concerning, but he he was good enough in

617
00:33:11,279 --> 00:33:14,920
that start, in my opinion, so he could be fine.

618
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,079
Like I wouldn't be that surprised if he came out

619
00:33:17,119 --> 00:33:21,319
and throw it through the ball respectable, But man, like,

620
00:33:21,359 --> 00:33:24,359
you're still up against the Mariners who have as Tokyo.

621
00:33:24,359 --> 00:33:28,440
Brannon did a great job of pointing out their top

622
00:33:28,559 --> 00:33:31,039
arm at least like Logan Gilbert got to remember too,

623
00:33:31,359 --> 00:33:32,880
he had a stretch of time where he was hurt

624
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:37,279
this year, and like, if he wasn't Logan, Gilbert very

625
00:33:37,319 --> 00:33:39,400
much might be in the mix with like the Schoobls

626
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,359
and the Crochets for cy Young talk if he didn't

627
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,519
hurt himself and miss you know, five six weeks and

628
00:33:45,559 --> 00:33:48,359
then have to work his way back from injuries. So yeah,

629
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,200
you could even look at this like, hey, we're getting

630
00:33:50,359 --> 00:33:52,319
Gilbert at a little bit of a bargain. As crazy

631
00:33:52,559 --> 00:33:54,640
as that is to say where the price in this

632
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:58,000
game is, arguably he maybe should be a bigger favorite.

633
00:33:58,079 --> 00:33:59,839
So the fact that you can get Mariners minus one

634
00:34:00,079 --> 00:34:03,480
half close to a pick might close to one minus

635
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,119
one on five minus one ten might actually be the

636
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,400
value in this one, because I don't know that the

637
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:12,400
books have fully adjusted to Gilbert being the cy Young

638
00:34:12,559 --> 00:34:15,880
Ace caliber pitcher that he actually is. So I know

639
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,039
you didn't expect to hear that from me today because

640
00:34:18,079 --> 00:34:21,119
I've been very pro White Sox. But I think this

641
00:34:21,159 --> 00:34:23,679
could be another blowout. And if if Gilbert's on and

642
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,719
he's cruising, you're probably looking at the White Sox playing

643
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:29,840
from behind, and I just don't think this is a

644
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,920
White Sox scene that's gonna come from behind right now,

645
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:36,280
so I actually lean toward the Mariners here. All right,

646
00:34:37,119 --> 00:34:39,199
we have let's go right on to the next game.

647
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,599
I do see your guys questions some really good questions,

648
00:34:42,639 --> 00:34:45,559
and we will get more betting theory questions over the

649
00:34:45,599 --> 00:34:48,280
next half hour. We'll also lock in the final two

650
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,679
legs of the Parlay Tokyo brand and started us off

651
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,480
with the A's team total. Brian and I will add

652
00:34:53,519 --> 00:34:56,039
one here over the course of the next thirty minutes.

653
00:34:56,079 --> 00:34:59,039
So stay with us and let's work our way through

654
00:34:59,079 --> 00:35:02,559
this four games. Late next game, actually, you know, I

655
00:35:03,039 --> 00:35:06,239
suppose that you're gonna throw one in sort of prime

656
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:10,039
time tonight, Brian, on this on this thrilling four games slate,

657
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,639
at least you're getting schemes against the Reds, Like, that's

658
00:35:13,639 --> 00:35:16,559
a pretty interesting game right there. For no other reason

659
00:35:16,639 --> 00:35:20,079
than Paul Skeen's is a generational talent and it's great

660
00:35:20,079 --> 00:35:21,800
to see him pitch anytime he gets to step on

661
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:25,639
the mount. The Reds fell short yesterday, but like man,

662
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,679
I felt like everything went against him in that game,

663
00:35:27,679 --> 00:35:30,360
including every call, so it was like almost like they

664
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,840
were doomed, like regardless of what happened but now they

665
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,559
turn around. It's Brady Singer, who finally looked good last

666
00:35:36,559 --> 00:35:38,840
time out. It's Paul Skeens, who's arguably the best pitcher

667
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,440
in the National League. How are you seeing reds pirates here?

668
00:35:42,039 --> 00:35:45,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had the reds is my playing in the

669
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,800
parlay which killed the parlor yesterday. By the way, I

670
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:49,639
didn't have a chance to watch the game. I had

671
00:35:49,679 --> 00:35:52,559
some other things going on yesterday, but I did hear

672
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,199
and I did see some things on the internet where

673
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:59,559
I guess the umpire really called a bad game. It

674
00:35:59,599 --> 00:36:03,599
was really hurting Cincinnati. Not an excuse, but maybe they'll

675
00:36:03,599 --> 00:36:06,360
get a little bit better calls today if that's the situation.

676
00:36:07,039 --> 00:36:09,239
But you got Brady Singer going against Paul Skins here.

677
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:12,760
Skean's about a one sixty five favorite total of seven,

678
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:18,079
slightly to the over. Here's a quick question or a

679
00:36:18,159 --> 00:36:20,559
quick statement that I don't think anybody would know about.

680
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:24,440
I'm just talking about the roster resource page where they

681
00:36:24,599 --> 00:36:29,199
rate the pictures from the last fourteen days. The number

682
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:33,639
one starter in Major League Baseball over the last fourteen days,

683
00:36:34,039 --> 00:36:37,639
Brady Singer. Brady Singer has had two really good starts

684
00:36:37,639 --> 00:36:40,639
in a row. He has struggled. He's been very inconsistent

685
00:36:40,679 --> 00:36:43,639
this year. He's either been good or he's been bad.

686
00:36:43,679 --> 00:36:46,159
It has been really no in between. But he's on

687
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:49,920
a nice run right now. And actually they're eighth inn

688
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,519
and guy Tony Santillion is the number one rated reliever

689
00:36:54,159 --> 00:36:57,000
neither Obviously when you take a look at the bullpens,

690
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:01,320
nobody know none of the best pictures for the Reds

691
00:37:01,519 --> 00:37:04,159
pitch yesterday and on Tuesday they only threw a combine

692
00:37:04,199 --> 00:37:07,480
eleven innings. So I think we'll get going to see

693
00:37:07,519 --> 00:37:11,920
the Reds bullpen in better shape here, but they will

694
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:13,880
probably have to have the lead in order to do that,

695
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,280
and they're going up against one of the best pitchers

696
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,760
in baseball at Paul Skins. But getting back to Brady

697
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,559
Singer on the season, four point three six cra and

698
00:37:23,679 --> 00:37:26,519
his whip is one point three to one. But his

699
00:37:26,599 --> 00:37:28,679
last two starts, he shut out the Braves on a

700
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:32,000
four hitter in six innings last time out, and before that,

701
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,199
you give up one earned run is seven and a

702
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:38,880
third against the Washington National excuse me, at Tampa Bay

703
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,280
Rays and you only give up three hits in that one.

704
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:46,159
Not before that, Washington bombed them but he played the Rockies,

705
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:51,280
he played Miami, and he played Boston, and the Boston

706
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,559
game was short. He only had three innings there, but

707
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,400
the other two games he was decent. So maybe he's

708
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,039
on one of those upswings. And when you can get

709
00:37:59,079 --> 00:38:04,360
a pitcher one what I considered the better team at

710
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,760
this price range, it may be something to look at

711
00:38:07,159 --> 00:38:11,440
when you're looking at Paul Skins here, one of the

712
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:15,599
best pitchers in baseball. Obviously still a six and eight

713
00:38:15,679 --> 00:38:20,840
record on the season. Two point oh two. That's that's crazy,

714
00:38:21,039 --> 00:38:24,280
two point five three expected dra zero point nine two whip.

715
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,920
He is all read all over the stackcast page, so

716
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:29,679
he has no need to talk about that. The guy's

717
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:33,400
just a terrific pitcher. He throws. He now throws seven

718
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:37,400
pitches anywhere from four percent on the cutter all the

719
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:46,159
way up to his fifty or on his fastball ninety

720
00:38:46,159 --> 00:38:50,159
eight point two on his average fastball ninety four point

721
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:54,000
nine is league average. He's just a terrific picture. Looking

722
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,000
at these things here, I think we may have some

723
00:38:56,119 --> 00:38:59,920
value on playing the under and it's sitting there at seven.

724
00:39:00,639 --> 00:39:03,800
I know that the Pirates hitters have done pretty well lately,

725
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,239
but it's all been the fringe guys. If you go

726
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:10,719
back to the Ross resource page, it's been the fringe

727
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:14,679
guys that have done it for the pirates. And let's

728
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:18,280
stick a look. We've got top one hundred over the

729
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:23,400
last seven days. Spencer Horro it's number nine, Nickozalis number

730
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:28,159
seventy two, Andrew McCutcheon seventy three, kind of FILEFFA fifty two.

731
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:32,440
So it's not even you know, O'Neill Cruz going crazy

732
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,519
onor with Brian Reynolds. It's these guys that have been

733
00:39:35,559 --> 00:39:38,119
the past struggles a little bit. So I kind of

734
00:39:38,159 --> 00:39:39,760
like the under here. I'm gonna use that as my

735
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:43,000
parlay on today's card, And to be totally honest with you,

736
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,639
I'm probably gonna pass on today's card. I just don't

737
00:39:45,679 --> 00:39:50,000
With four games, I'm not seeing anything enough to play

738
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,960
give to my clients. But you can get the under

739
00:39:53,079 --> 00:39:56,360
seven right now at you know, minus minus one oh

740
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,880
five or so, and that's the way I'll play it,

741
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,159
and hopefully Pittsburgh will do what they normally do when

742
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:04,400
Paul Skins is on the mountain and not score. So

743
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:05,840
that'll be my take on this game.

744
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, guys, it's so difficult to win at sports betting.

745
00:40:11,679 --> 00:40:14,880
So what we have to do is rely on things

746
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:18,079
that we know. And what do I know? I know

747
00:40:18,119 --> 00:40:21,280
Paul Skeins is a pretty good pitcher. So I'm going

748
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:25,639
to put a bet somehow backing him being a good

749
00:40:25,639 --> 00:40:28,079
pitcher because I know he is a good pitcher. How

750
00:40:28,079 --> 00:40:32,280
good is he? Well? At home, he's pitched sixty two innings,

751
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:38,280
he has he has sixty two strikeouts in thirteen walks.

752
00:40:38,679 --> 00:40:41,760
He's got a one eight seven ERA, but he's only

753
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:45,360
won three games. He's three and four. So those are

754
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,639
amazing numbers though, and if you look at how he's

755
00:40:47,679 --> 00:40:52,880
performed against these Reds batters even more amazing. A one

756
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,800
to seventy nine average against and a four to seventy

757
00:40:55,880 --> 00:41:00,400
six OPS. That's almost three hundred points below my Doza

758
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,920
Ligne for OPS, which is seven point fifty. That is

759
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:09,960
pretty incredible stuff. I'm projecting him to allow three hits

760
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,280
in this game, and if you look at his last

761
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:17,880
home starts, he has not allowed five hits. He's only

762
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:21,639
allowed five hits once in five starts. So I took

763
00:41:21,679 --> 00:41:23,920
a look at DraftKings that his hits is four and

764
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:26,440
a half for this game. I think under four and

765
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,320
a half hits for Schemes would be a decent bet.

766
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:32,360
It's juiced pretty badly though, It's like minus one sixty

767
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:35,840
or something. But I mean, you think they're gonna get

768
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:40,719
five hits on him? I don't, So yeah, I'm gonna

769
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:42,760
bet what I know, and I know Schmes is good.

770
00:41:43,079 --> 00:41:45,000
I have him ranked number two out of two hundred

771
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:48,920
and twenty starting pitchers, so yeah, he's right behind Treik Skuble.

772
00:41:50,039 --> 00:41:53,760
He's pretty good and he doesn't walk anyone either, So

773
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:57,280
Red's are gonna find it hard to score here. I

774
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:00,559
don't argue. I wouldn't argue with Brian's under either though,

775
00:42:00,559 --> 00:42:03,920
because Singer has been pretty good. He has good stats

776
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:08,079
against these batters as well, so I think the Pirates

777
00:42:08,079 --> 00:42:10,119
are going to have a hard time scoring at least

778
00:42:10,119 --> 00:42:11,920
at the beginning of the game as well. So a

779
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,559
first five under or either team's team total under might

780
00:42:15,599 --> 00:42:16,360
be a good bet here.

781
00:42:18,599 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 2: Yeah.

782
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 1: I have no problem with like backing schemes to achieve

783
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:26,760
in some way, shape or form, but betting the Pirates

784
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:31,119
here would just be insanity, like betting on the Pirates

785
00:42:31,119 --> 00:42:33,199
to win the game at this price, and it has

786
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:34,800
nothing to do with skins and that's why I want

787
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,480
to make make the point, like I have no issues

788
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,800
if you want to, if you like schemes and you're like, Okay,

789
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,280
I want to take his k's, I would. I would

790
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,719
not take him to win the game because it's correlated

791
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:47,960
to the Pirates winning the game. I have no problem

792
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:51,559
with the Skins achievement on angle if you but that's

793
00:42:51,559 --> 00:42:54,519
the only possible way that you could justify playing the

794
00:42:54,519 --> 00:42:59,679
Pirates here. The reason is they are for whatever reason

795
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,880
they're I don't want to say they're not trying to win.

796
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:07,159
It's not the right turn because every anyone, any Major

797
00:43:07,199 --> 00:43:09,920
League Baseball player stepping onto a big league field is

798
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:14,280
trying to win. But for some reason, the Pirates have

799
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:18,719
a more optimal roster at Indianapolis right now than they

800
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,320
do in Pittsburgh. Someone's gonna have to, like, do they

801
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,079
get money for winning Triple A? Like I wonder because

802
00:43:24,119 --> 00:43:26,440
I know that guy, I know, the Pirates owner loves

803
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:29,119
his you know, keeping dollars in his pocket. Someone needs

804
00:43:29,159 --> 00:43:30,599
to let me know if they get a black a

805
00:43:30,679 --> 00:43:34,000
bonus for winning Triple A, because that Indianapolis indian seems

806
00:43:34,119 --> 00:43:37,159
very good right now, and the fact that like they

807
00:43:37,199 --> 00:43:40,039
traded for Cam Devaney and he hasn't been called up yet.

808
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,119
Is crazy to me. When they moved Adam Frasier for him,

809
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,559
why you wouldn't have then put him in the big

810
00:43:46,639 --> 00:43:48,639
leagues because he's had a great season at Triple A?

811
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,639
Makes no sense. Now they get Ronnie Simone from the

812
00:43:51,679 --> 00:43:55,599
Marlins organization, who was up with the Marlins. He's playing

813
00:43:55,639 --> 00:43:57,960
great at Triple A? Why has he not been thrown

814
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,760
into the mix yet. But the reason that's important is

815
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:03,639
the guys that they are trotting out there on big

816
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:08,039
league games. Livia or pagera trash leading him, he's leading off,

817
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:11,760
Alex Canario's batting two oh five, Trail is batting under

818
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,719
two hundred. Like, these are guys starting every day essentially

819
00:44:15,039 --> 00:44:18,039
for the Pirates right now. So to me, it's like

820
00:44:18,599 --> 00:44:21,440
I can't justify it. And I know they had some

821
00:44:21,559 --> 00:44:23,480
wins for a stretch. I don't know how. I don't

822
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,239
know how they had like an eight and three stretch.

823
00:44:25,519 --> 00:44:28,559
Probably playing the Rockies helped a little bit, but like,

824
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:32,159
how can you lay a dollar seventy with that team?

825
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,199
I don't care who's on the mount so it could

826
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,960
only be the Reds. Colin Gregory says leads leading Reds

827
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:40,199
plus one and a half. If it was a better price,

828
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:41,760
if I didn't have to lay as much juice, I'd

829
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:46,159
certainly agree with you on that obviously, like there's a

830
00:44:46,159 --> 00:44:48,400
little bit of plus money value, but again, you're still

831
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:51,280
going to have to beat schemes. So I have no

832
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:53,800
bet here. But I guess the reason I'm sort of

833
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:56,760
like on my going off on my tangent is A,

834
00:44:56,960 --> 00:45:00,239
we have the time, and B I don't want you

835
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,159
laying a dollar seventy with the Pirates here. I think

836
00:45:02,159 --> 00:45:05,000
it's a really bad idea. So no bet for me.

837
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:07,039
But don't bet the Pirates at this price. It's just

838
00:45:07,039 --> 00:45:07,599
not a good bet.

839
00:45:07,599 --> 00:45:10,199
Speaker 2: Go ahead, bright, Yeah, I was gonna mention. I looked

840
00:45:10,199 --> 00:45:11,960
at the Reds at plus the one and a half

841
00:45:12,039 --> 00:45:14,000
and I thought about that, but it was minus one fifty,

842
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:18,559
and I think the under the seven overall is probably

843
00:45:18,559 --> 00:45:20,360
I don't want to lay. I'm not a big good

844
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:22,000
guy laying all out juice. If you notice in our

845
00:45:22,039 --> 00:45:28,880
parless usually play underdogs. I will say that that that's

846
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,599
the situation where you've got to start a pitcher of

847
00:45:31,639 --> 00:45:34,960
this one six games all year, and I just I

848
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:38,719
don't remember offhand. Has there ever been a cy Young

849
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:40,280
winner the head a losing.

850
00:45:40,039 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 1: Record Hernandez, Felix, Mariners, maybe the gram Mets, I don't remember.

851
00:45:47,199 --> 00:45:48,800
Those are the only two that come to mind. The

852
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,159
gram with the Mets, Felix with the Mariners. I don't

853
00:45:51,199 --> 00:45:53,119
think they had great win loss records, and I think

854
00:45:53,159 --> 00:45:57,000
they both won a SI Young at some point. But

855
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,360
other than that, Remember they gave to guy in the

856
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:02,559
Red Sox one year because he won twenty games, but

857
00:46:02,639 --> 00:46:03,880
he was like, not a great pitcher.

858
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 2: I remember, that's when I thought wins and lost was

859
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:07,480
mentioned nothing.

860
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:09,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was like twenty one and four and it's

861
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:11,519
like not even a pitcher. I can queue up off

862
00:46:11,519 --> 00:46:13,400
the top of my head right now. It was the

863
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:15,559
guy who's also on the Tigers. I just can't remember

864
00:46:15,559 --> 00:46:18,360
his name to save my wife, but yeah.

865
00:46:18,559 --> 00:46:20,199
Speaker 2: Mickey Lolitch or something.

866
00:46:20,679 --> 00:46:24,039
Speaker 3: To just mention one point to back up the how

867
00:46:24,079 --> 00:46:26,960
in the world can you bet the Pirates at minus

868
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:31,360
one eighty today? Theory uh Skeens has a one eight

869
00:46:31,559 --> 00:46:35,559
ERA in sixty two innings and he's got a losing

870
00:46:35,679 --> 00:46:38,679
win loss record, so that should be enough for you

871
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,760
to not bet the Pirates today. Bet bet bet on

872
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:46,079
Skeens somehow excelling, or bet either one of the teams

873
00:46:46,079 --> 00:46:48,039
not to score a lot of runs.

874
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, since team and you're getting them in this price range,

875
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:53,880
I mean makes a lot of sun shot.

876
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:58,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I believe the books put too much

877
00:46:58,159 --> 00:47:02,679
weight on starting pitching for sure, because this line is

878
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:06,119
strictly because Skeens is starting. I mean, if that was

879
00:47:06,159 --> 00:47:09,039
a Falter, there's no way, Well, Falter plays for someone

880
00:47:09,079 --> 00:47:11,039
else now, but there's no way that line would be

881
00:47:11,079 --> 00:47:14,760
what it is, right, So, uh, strictly starting pitching and

882
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:18,199
Skeens he's not. I don't think he goes like seven

883
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:21,079
eight innings, right, He's like a five to six maybe

884
00:47:21,159 --> 00:47:22,519
seven inning guy, right.

885
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 2: So seven normal? Right now? They don't want to wear

886
00:47:25,519 --> 00:47:28,559
him out, that's right, Give him five and.

887
00:47:28,519 --> 00:47:33,239
Speaker 1: Fly Robert s. Yeah. This is one of my biggest

888
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:35,719
sort of gripes with the with Major League Baseball. In

889
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:40,320
addition to that ghost runner rule, it is teams manipulating

890
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:44,559
guys service time and like being being essentially being allowed

891
00:47:44,599 --> 00:47:49,480
to do it. It's the only sport where like there's

892
00:47:49,519 --> 00:47:54,039
there's upside to not having the best possible roster at

893
00:47:54,159 --> 00:47:57,039
the big league at like like your major league level.

894
00:47:57,159 --> 00:48:01,880
It's the only sport where it's like there's actual upside

895
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:04,480
to not doing it, and teams do take advantage of

896
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,440
that in different ways, and I dislike that's there's got

897
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:11,159
to be I don't. I think they should work to

898
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:15,119
like make that less of a thing. If a guy

899
00:48:15,199 --> 00:48:17,440
deserves to be in the majors, he should be in

900
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:22,039
the majors, plain and simple, like just you can't convince

901
00:48:22,079 --> 00:48:25,199
me otherwise. There are scenarios where it's like, yeah, if

902
00:48:25,199 --> 00:48:27,159
you want a guy to play every day and there's

903
00:48:27,159 --> 00:48:28,840
not space for him at the big legue level, I

904
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:31,719
get all that, but like I truly, but like the

905
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,119
major should be the best twenty six players in your organization,

906
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:39,199
obviously position related, and too many teams are not doing

907
00:48:39,199 --> 00:48:41,440
that because they're trying to save a dollar down the road,

908
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:42,920
and I wish there was a way to get that

909
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:45,880
out of the sport. It's very It bothers me, but

910
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:46,239
that's a.

911
00:48:46,159 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 3: Good Contracts are so funny because you know, you see

912
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:53,800
guys not being on the major league roster until a

913
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,199
month into the season because they don't want to pay

914
00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:59,000
him for the full season, or you know, contracts are

915
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,800
really complicated baseball fun.

916
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 1: Louis Vuitton don before we go on to the last game,

917
00:49:05,679 --> 00:49:08,000
he brings, so this is something he dm to me,

918
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:11,320
and he says, I've done this for four years straight.

919
00:49:12,039 --> 00:49:14,920
Every year, sixty nine to seventy three percent of baseball

920
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,280
games are decided by two plus runs. That's that's true

921
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:20,599
about twenty set. It's always been. It's like twenty seven

922
00:49:20,599 --> 00:49:22,599
to twenty eight. Twenty nine percent on a given year

923
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:26,679
is about one run. That that's the number of games

924
00:49:26,679 --> 00:49:30,000
decided by one run. So what he's saying is and

925
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,440
my reason reason I'm bringing it up now is because

926
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,679
we just talked about reds one plus one and a half,

927
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,199
but not the value at the at the current price.

928
00:49:38,199 --> 00:49:40,119
He says, I got tired of people saying don't lay

929
00:49:40,119 --> 00:49:42,840
minus one and a half with home teams and taking

930
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:44,760
minus plus one and a half is a good play

931
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:49,039
when it's not, or creating minus one lines. And so

932
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:53,039
he sent me a chart and he basically said, Okay,

933
00:49:53,039 --> 00:49:56,159
these are teams that have lost by two plus runs

934
00:49:56,199 --> 00:49:59,079
at seventy five percent or more. And it's interesting who's

935
00:49:59,119 --> 00:50:03,039
on this chart, Tigers, believe it or not, The Tigers

936
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,760
thirty nine of their forty six losses, eighty four point

937
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:08,960
eight percent of their losses are by two or more runs.

938
00:50:09,199 --> 00:50:11,920
The Cubs eighty two percent of their losses by two

939
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:16,679
or more runs. I guess like what he's getting I

940
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:18,400
think what he's getting at is why not lay the

941
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,199
minus one and a half more? Don't pay the juice.

942
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:24,679
I'm with you on not paying the juice for plus

943
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:26,400
one and a half. I do think that there's like

944
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:29,360
a very strict cutoff. If you're going to go out

945
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:31,760
and lay a dollar forty to get plus one and

946
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,119
a half on a daily basis, you will lose money.

947
00:50:34,639 --> 00:50:37,320
But as far as his like, I don't really know

948
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:39,199
what his question is, but I just figured I would

949
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:43,320
throw it out for discussion. I honestly think the books

950
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:45,320
do a pretty good job of pricing the run lines

951
00:50:45,599 --> 00:50:48,320
for the most part. I personally like plus one and

952
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:51,039
a half, but it's when I can find a really

953
00:50:51,079 --> 00:50:54,039
good value spot with a team that doesn't win many games,

954
00:50:54,159 --> 00:50:56,800
so like a White Sox or like a Nationals, because

955
00:50:57,199 --> 00:51:00,199
I think these teams are going to find ways to

956
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:02,840
lose more often than not, and so it gives me

957
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:05,440
a little safety blanket there, and I'm willing to do

958
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:07,599
it at a certain price. Do either of you before

959
00:51:07,639 --> 00:51:09,800
we go into the last game want to comment on

960
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:14,199
just run line betting and anything for Louis vatad Don,

961
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:17,119
who's apparently betting the run lines on a daily basis.

962
00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:22,079
Speaker 2: I don't play minus run lines very often, almost never.

963
00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:24,360
I always like to take the one and a half

964
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:26,960
because the team's goal is to win the game, and

965
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,599
if you win the game by one, they leave the field,

966
00:51:30,639 --> 00:51:34,360
they're all excited, they accomplish their goal. And in the

967
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:37,159
late innings, when you're up by more than one run,

968
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,199
they let that guy steal second base. Sometimes I let

969
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:42,920
them steal third and that's why I don't do it.

970
00:51:45,679 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, my way of thinking about this is, first of all,

971
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,760
with the plus one and a half, I would only

972
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:54,679
bet plus one and a half if I think that

973
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:57,280
underdog is going to win on the money line, and

974
00:51:57,320 --> 00:51:58,920
I would take the plus one and a half just

975
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:01,519
a security, because I would never bet them to lose

976
00:52:01,559 --> 00:52:04,159
by one because the chances are, like you said, less

977
00:52:04,159 --> 00:52:06,920
than twenty percent, probably less than ten percent, right, So

978
00:52:08,159 --> 00:52:11,639
if you like an underdog and you want to take them,

979
00:52:11,679 --> 00:52:13,920
take a one and a half and then you know,

980
00:52:14,039 --> 00:52:16,559
pay a little bit of juice, but you get a

981
00:52:16,599 --> 00:52:19,400
security blanket there regarding the minus one and a half

982
00:52:19,519 --> 00:52:22,599
or like what you just mentioned. Those statistics you just mentioned,

983
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:27,119
I think those are very manager specific statistics because some managers,

984
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:30,599
if you watch the games, once they go down by

985
00:52:30,599 --> 00:52:33,039
four or five runs, they pretty much throw in the towel.

986
00:52:33,079 --> 00:52:36,239
And I think that's what that's an indication of. I

987
00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:38,639
don't know if Cubs manager is throwing in the towel

988
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:40,920
or anything, but that team is way too talented to

989
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:43,079
be losing that many games by two or more runs.

990
00:52:43,159 --> 00:52:48,519
So I think it's a managerial tactical Perhaps so, but

991
00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:51,440
I generally don't bet minus one and a half because

992
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:55,039
I hate nothing more than to pick the right side

993
00:52:55,039 --> 00:52:57,360
and to lose my bet when they win by one.

994
00:52:57,400 --> 00:52:59,880
I just hate it, so I generally don't bet them.

995
00:53:01,199 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 1: TV make a good point, and you know, I want

996
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:06,280
to point out that the top two teams on that

997
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:09,559
list are the Tigers and the Cubs, two very good teams.

998
00:53:09,559 --> 00:53:11,800
And I and I think what you're and what you're

999
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:15,440
saying has some merit because the Tigers and the Cubs

1000
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:18,000
go out and expect to win essentially every day. So

1001
00:53:18,159 --> 00:53:21,639
why would a guy like aj Hinder Craig council risk

1002
00:53:22,679 --> 00:53:27,039
deploying resources down a couple of runs when they know

1003
00:53:27,159 --> 00:53:29,079
that they're probably going to win their next three four games,

1004
00:53:29,079 --> 00:53:32,599
Like why would they risk messing up a week? You're

1005
00:53:32,639 --> 00:53:34,239
just not going to see that from a from a

1006
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:37,199
good team. Now from bad teams that don't have established

1007
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:39,239
roles in the bullpen and they're really just flying by

1008
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:42,199
the seat of their pants. It's it's a little bit different,

1009
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:45,199
and they may look at like being down two is like, Okay,

1010
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:47,840
this is like you know a good chance for like

1011
00:53:47,679 --> 00:53:49,440
a like a look like the White Sox if they're

1012
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:51,679
down two against the Mariners, like this might be the

1013
00:53:51,679 --> 00:53:54,119
best shot we have to to stay in a game,

1014
00:53:54,199 --> 00:53:56,920
this whole series tomorrow. We've got Logan Gilbert right, Like,

1015
00:53:57,559 --> 00:53:59,719
so I do think that there is some merit to

1016
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:02,239
that point, whereas the Cubs are gonna be like, all right,

1017
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:05,239
we're down five, who needs innings, Let's get the guy

1018
00:54:05,239 --> 00:54:06,760
with the sixty r A and get him a couple

1019
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,599
of ks, and because we're probably gonna be in position

1020
00:54:09,679 --> 00:54:11,599
to win our next three or four games, It's it's

1021
00:54:11,599 --> 00:54:14,679
a really good that's that's a that's a great point

1022
00:54:15,119 --> 00:54:17,000
and there's some data to back that up in that

1023
00:54:17,119 --> 00:54:21,119
in that chart. All right, last game on the board

1024
00:54:21,119 --> 00:54:26,719
for Thursday, Uh, Marlins Braves. We've got Uri Perez, who's

1025
00:54:26,719 --> 00:54:28,760
Who's a guy that we've talked about quite a bit

1026
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:32,559
on the show. And our guy Cookie Carlos Carrasco, who

1027
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:36,079
look really good on his call up to the Braves

1028
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:38,559
after pitching very good in the minors for a month. So,

1029
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:42,280
Brian Leonard, this is your guy, Carlos Carrasco, longtime guardian.

1030
00:54:43,079 --> 00:54:44,360
I know you want to see him do well with

1031
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:46,360
the Braves. Does he pitch well tonight?

1032
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, he surprised me. You you had mentioned in a

1033
00:54:50,119 --> 00:54:52,599
minor league starts that he was pitching very well, and

1034
00:54:52,639 --> 00:54:54,719
he brought that to the managers. I hope that continues

1035
00:54:54,719 --> 00:55:00,000
for him personally. I go off, there are terrific line

1036
00:55:00,119 --> 00:55:04,760
service the Odds Logic website, and they're making some changes

1037
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:07,000
to the site. They're gonna make it even better. And

1038
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:09,760
I sent Johnny over all my information today. So now

1039
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:16,039
unfortunately he's cut off. He's updating my system right in

1040
00:55:16,079 --> 00:55:17,800
the middle of the show, so I can't give you

1041
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:20,480
what the corol lines are on this game. So somebody

1042
00:55:20,519 --> 00:55:23,239
else is going to have to do it. But we've

1043
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:25,480
got Urie Perez, as you mentioned, and now has a

1044
00:55:25,519 --> 00:55:27,719
winning record four and three on the season, two point

1045
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:31,800
seven o e r A two point seven to six expected.

1046
00:55:31,920 --> 00:55:35,119
That's coming off of the obviously the major surgery missed

1047
00:55:35,119 --> 00:55:38,079
all last season. He's been really good. I mean he's

1048
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:40,320
his whip is zero point nine to four. He's now

1049
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,599
averaging more strikeouts than the he's pitched. This is a

1050
00:55:43,639 --> 00:55:45,880
guy right now you wanna you want to back if

1051
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,400
you get a chance. You take a look at his

1052
00:55:48,559 --> 00:55:52,360
recent starts. He just played the Yankees. He's held the

1053
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:55,440
Yankees to two hitter, two hits and six innings nowhere

1054
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:59,840
and runs. Before that, he played at hot Brewers uh

1055
00:56:00,079 --> 00:56:03,880
five innings, one earned run, two hits. Before that, I

1056
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:07,960
played the Padre's a really good offensive team, five innings,

1057
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:11,199
two hits or two inning runs, two hits, and then

1058
00:56:11,639 --> 00:56:16,159
the Orioles seven and zero since they reads five and one,

1059
00:56:17,280 --> 00:56:21,039
Minnesota twins six and zero. Yeah, he's pitching well. I

1060
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:25,360
love him in this game. It's not often you're gonna

1061
00:56:25,360 --> 00:56:27,519
have them as the road of paper here against Atlanta team.

1062
00:56:27,519 --> 00:56:31,719
But the Brewers yesterday were my best bet they were

1063
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,320
my four percent play. They led, they fell down one

1064
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:37,280
nothing in the first sitting and then came back, and

1065
00:56:37,719 --> 00:56:40,920
Stryder just doesn't have it right now. Tryder is probably

1066
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:43,239
the most overrated pitcher in Major League Baseball right now.

1067
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:46,000
Not the same pitcher as he was when he was healthy.

1068
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:50,960
This is Atlanta offense not very good. If you take

1069
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:54,480
a look at as I mentioned earlier, with the teams lately,

1070
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:58,119
on what they have done. Let's check that out over

1071
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:04,840
at the resource page. We've got last seven days for

1072
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:09,440
the Atlanta Braves. They have two players that are better

1073
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:13,679
than one hundred, Asie Albi's eighty eight. He had one

1074
00:57:13,679 --> 00:57:17,480
big game, and then Eli White, who hits for no power,

1075
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,840
is ranked twenty six. So their major guys, the Olsons,

1076
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:25,559
the profiles, the Murphys. Harris is hitting well, he's the

1077
00:57:25,599 --> 00:57:29,559
top twenty. He's finally coming around. This is not a

1078
00:57:29,599 --> 00:57:31,480
team I'm looking to back to score a lot of

1079
00:57:31,559 --> 00:57:33,360
runs right now, and they're doing so against the guy

1080
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:39,159
who's just pitching phenomenal. Will it continue, not forever, but

1081
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:42,400
right now he has just been terrific. And so I

1082
00:57:42,519 --> 00:57:45,199
like Miami in this game, and they did get that

1083
00:57:46,320 --> 00:57:49,000
back on the winning track yesterday. I think they continues

1084
00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:49,800
today with Miami.

1085
00:57:51,519 --> 00:57:53,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd really like to take Miami in this one,

1086
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:57,280
but I haven't yet. A lot of things point their direction,

1087
00:57:57,639 --> 00:58:00,599
the fact that Atlanta's season is over and the guys

1088
00:58:00,599 --> 00:58:04,320
are just playing for contracts, and the fact that Miami's

1089
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:08,960
a really good road team. There's one red flag, though,

1090
00:58:09,039 --> 00:58:13,000
and that Suri Pras's stats against these batters in his career.

1091
00:58:13,480 --> 00:58:15,559
They've lit him up. He's got a three point fifty

1092
00:58:15,599 --> 00:58:19,280
average against and a one fifty nine ops against. Sample

1093
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:22,440
sizes kind of small, but there are batters in this

1094
00:58:22,519 --> 00:58:26,440
lineup that have absolutely tagged him in his career, So

1095
00:58:26,519 --> 00:58:29,119
that kind of scares me a little bit. One other

1096
00:58:29,159 --> 00:58:31,239
thing that kind of scares me is the fact that

1097
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:36,800
straight up Atlanta is a more talented team. So you know,

1098
00:58:37,199 --> 00:58:40,599
they're in the dumps right now and their season is

1099
00:58:40,679 --> 00:58:45,960
basically worthless and over, but they're just more talented. So

1100
00:58:46,039 --> 00:58:51,960
I just can't emotionally make myself bet them. But Miami

1101
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:55,360
has the much better bullpen right now. Current for Miami

1102
00:58:55,440 --> 00:59:01,719
ranked nine, Atlanta ranked twenty five. Lineup current form Miami

1103
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:06,719
ranked seventeen, Atlanta ranked twenty three. So Miami has huge advantage.

1104
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,440
And I've got Eerie Perez ranked five on a curve

1105
00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:13,199
of thirty out of all starting pitchers. So everything points

1106
00:59:13,239 --> 00:59:17,320
to Miami except his history against these batters and the

1107
00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:21,960
fact that remove myself from the data. But emotionally, I

1108
00:59:22,039 --> 00:59:24,519
just can't bet the inferior team. I just can't make

1109
00:59:24,559 --> 00:59:27,960
myself do it. Just those two things.

1110
00:59:29,159 --> 00:59:32,440
Speaker 1: Every day, I you know, I'm watching the Marlins. I

1111
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:34,400
feel like on a day to day basis at this point,

1112
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:37,039
and it's like every day I don't think I can

1113
00:59:37,119 --> 00:59:39,480
like this team anymore. And then something happens and I'm

1114
00:59:39,519 --> 00:59:42,920
just like, it makes me like them even more. And

1115
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:46,159
yesterday I'm watching Marlin's astras didn't have a cent on

1116
00:59:46,199 --> 00:59:48,679
the game, although are over that we talked about on

1117
00:59:48,719 --> 00:59:51,760
the show was over in like the third inning or

1118
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:54,440
very early in the game. A lot of runs off

1119
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:57,119
the starters yesterday, but it's late in the game, and

1120
00:59:57,360 --> 01:00:00,079
I think it was Foucher. Fauche, however you say his

1121
01:00:00,079 --> 01:00:01,800
his name was, was the relief pitcher on the mound

1122
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:05,239
in this scenario, bases load a game on the line,

1123
01:00:05,480 --> 01:00:08,199
jumps off the mound and just makes a tremendous play

1124
01:00:08,719 --> 01:00:11,159
and and and play and throw home and like the

1125
01:00:11,199 --> 01:00:13,639
whole play was awesome. They basically saved the game for

1126
01:00:13,679 --> 01:00:16,960
the Marlins. And then you get the Marlins broadcasters talking

1127
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:21,159
about how how hard they worked the pitchers in PFPS

1128
01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:24,440
and how they they're preaching like to the pitchers, like

1129
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:28,239
being aggressive in terms of like making plays on the mound,

1130
01:00:28,280 --> 01:00:31,119
which is it's just very different from like the league

1131
01:00:31,159 --> 01:00:33,559
strayed from that back when guys like I mean Greg

1132
01:00:33,559 --> 01:00:36,119
Maddocks used to be a great defensive pitcher always would

1133
01:00:36,119 --> 01:00:37,679
attack the ball and make a lot of plays. Now

1134
01:00:37,719 --> 01:00:40,679
it's like stand there like a statue and let your

1135
01:00:40,719 --> 01:00:42,840
fielders make the play. And a lot of a lot

1136
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:45,400
of times I've literally watched pitchers this year let a

1137
01:00:45,480 --> 01:00:48,559
pop up drop instead of just going and catching the

1138
01:00:48,559 --> 01:00:51,119
ball because like the mentality for a lot of pitchers is,

1139
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:53,960
you know, let the fielders make the plays. And he

1140
01:00:54,360 --> 01:00:57,400
attacked that ball, made a through a dark to the catcher.

1141
01:00:57,440 --> 01:00:59,519
It was just a great play. And it's just another

1142
01:01:00,119 --> 01:01:03,159
like Marlins are just outfit, you know, they just are

1143
01:01:03,440 --> 01:01:06,920
operating on another level in terms of developing talent right now.

1144
01:01:07,159 --> 01:01:09,559
You love to see it. As far as Jerry Press concerned,

1145
01:01:09,639 --> 01:01:12,119
Tokyo brind and you pointed his numbers out against the Braves,

1146
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:16,679
I think they're they're deceiving because his only start this

1147
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:19,480
year against the Braves was early, early on when he

1148
01:01:19,519 --> 01:01:22,360
was coming back, when he was still clearly rehabbing, still

1149
01:01:22,639 --> 01:01:25,559
had no real command of the zone. And then if

1150
01:01:25,599 --> 01:01:28,119
you go back to his starts against the Braves prior

1151
01:01:28,159 --> 01:01:31,079
to that, it's an eternity ago. I mean, this dude

1152
01:01:31,119 --> 01:01:33,960
was hurt for two years, so it's like he's not

1153
01:01:34,039 --> 01:01:36,440
even the same he was a kid. Then it's like

1154
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:40,079
he's aged like three years since then. So I would

1155
01:01:40,079 --> 01:01:43,760
back him playing. I mean, I would be more. I'm

1156
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:46,280
more like, I think he's more likely to pitch the

1157
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:49,239
way he's pitched pretty much since the first of June,

1158
01:01:49,719 --> 01:01:52,559
which is five six innings, completely locking down a lineup,

1159
01:01:52,639 --> 01:01:55,119
than oh, he's going to struggle against the Braves because

1160
01:01:55,159 --> 01:01:57,719
they have some decent numbers against it. Because I just

1161
01:01:57,760 --> 01:02:01,199
don't think the Braves, this Braves team who is in

1162
01:02:01,280 --> 01:02:05,440
their worst form maybe ever, right like ever, When I

1163
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:07,800
say ever, I mean the guys like the Akunas, like

1164
01:02:08,000 --> 01:02:12,039
this crew of Atlanta Braves guys has not played collectively

1165
01:02:12,119 --> 01:02:17,159
this poorly ever since they've all been there. Like, I don't.

1166
01:02:17,239 --> 01:02:19,559
I don't think they're gonna do much against Perez and

1167
01:02:19,599 --> 01:02:21,800
then Carrasco. Yeah, he's pitched well, but he can get

1168
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:24,679
bombed on a moment's notice. So Marlins will be my

1169
01:02:24,760 --> 01:02:28,159
parlay leg minus. What do we got?

1170
01:02:28,719 --> 01:02:32,199
Speaker 2: It's up again, I've got it minus one twenty perfect.

1171
01:02:32,800 --> 01:02:35,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I get So there's some people in

1172
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:37,000
the chat, and I agree with the people in the

1173
01:02:37,039 --> 01:02:39,599
chat where it's like, listen, you're gonna have to pump

1174
01:02:39,639 --> 01:02:42,119
the brakes. I'm playing the Marlins day to day as

1175
01:02:42,159 --> 01:02:45,400
a favorite. I totally agree with with that sort of

1176
01:02:45,400 --> 01:02:48,079
thought process. I do think the books have started to

1177
01:02:48,079 --> 01:02:51,159
come around on this Marlins team, and now suddenly you're

1178
01:02:51,159 --> 01:02:53,000
gonna have to lay a little juice to back them.

1179
01:02:53,199 --> 01:02:55,119
Long gone are the days where we can just get

1180
01:02:55,119 --> 01:02:58,599
the Marlins in this same spot plus one point fifteen

1181
01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:02,480
plus one, ten plus five. But I still think today's

1182
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:05,840
matchup on a four game card is a reasonably good bet.

1183
01:03:05,920 --> 01:03:07,639
So I'll take Marlin's go ahead. Brian.

1184
01:03:08,199 --> 01:03:11,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's talk about the bullpen yesterday, and it's true

1185
01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:13,880
there are four guys in the bullpen. They're back four

1186
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:20,119
guys through about I believe, excuse me, eighty eight pitches yesterday,

1187
01:03:20,760 --> 01:03:24,079
which is a lot to be concerned about, but none

1188
01:03:24,079 --> 01:03:26,760
of them had pitched the previous two days. But it's

1189
01:03:26,800 --> 01:03:28,960
still they're not as quite as fresh as what we

1190
01:03:28,960 --> 01:03:31,880
would like. They had three guys with the hold and

1191
01:03:31,920 --> 01:03:36,679
one guy to save yesterday. But I still like Miami.

1192
01:03:36,719 --> 01:03:39,199
I think that's a good bet and this Atlanta team.

1193
01:03:39,679 --> 01:03:41,320
I said it before the All Star Break when they

1194
01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:43,000
went into the All Star Break, this is a fade

1195
01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:47,119
for me. I think it continues here that it's a

1196
01:03:47,159 --> 01:03:51,599
big pitching mismatch. As much as I like the starter

1197
01:03:51,880 --> 01:03:54,760
as a personal level, yeah, I can't expect him to

1198
01:03:54,760 --> 01:03:56,719
pitch as well as what's going on in Miami right now.

1199
01:03:58,920 --> 01:04:00,920
Speaker 1: Can I make one more point quick about the bullpen

1200
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:04,800
for Miami. I'm less concerned with usage for Miami because

1201
01:04:05,079 --> 01:04:09,000
they're all the same guy, Like their top reliever and

1202
01:04:09,039 --> 01:04:11,199
their seventh reliever are very sick.

1203
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:11,400
Speaker 2: Like.

1204
01:04:11,639 --> 01:04:13,719
Speaker 1: This isn't a bullpen where it's like, oh, we've got

1205
01:04:13,719 --> 01:04:17,800
these like two studs and then it falls off considerably

1206
01:04:17,840 --> 01:04:20,440
at the end. It's a collection of guys that are

1207
01:04:20,480 --> 01:04:23,519
all like pretty good and that are not only are

1208
01:04:23,519 --> 01:04:26,599
they pretty good? They all seem to be improving, and

1209
01:04:26,639 --> 01:04:28,840
it's why they've had a top five bullpen for now,

1210
01:04:29,000 --> 01:04:31,079
like pretty much. If you look at the last two months,

1211
01:04:31,639 --> 01:04:34,239
last forty five days, Marlins are like way up there

1212
01:04:34,599 --> 01:04:39,800
in bullpen raiding, probably a top five bullpen. So they

1213
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:41,960
just have done a tremendous job. And it's like they've

1214
01:04:41,960 --> 01:04:44,440
got this collection of guys that can all go out

1215
01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:46,639
thrown in your two, do it good, and then hand

1216
01:04:46,679 --> 01:04:48,440
the ball to the next guy to do the same thing.

1217
01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:53,079
And they're still in that like playing with nothing to lose, vein, right,

1218
01:04:53,559 --> 01:04:56,440
So it's like they don't it's like they don't get over.

1219
01:04:56,599 --> 01:04:59,440
They're not worried about the eighth or ninth inning. Now,

1220
01:05:00,039 --> 01:05:01,800
three weeks down the road, if they start to sniff

1221
01:05:01,800 --> 01:05:04,840
a wild card spot, that might change suddenly those eight

1222
01:05:04,960 --> 01:05:07,239
ninth innings might get bigger. But for now, I just

1223
01:05:07,280 --> 01:05:10,400
think they're, you know, they're just sort of riding the waves.

1224
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:12,000
It's been fun to watch, Brian.

1225
01:05:12,039 --> 01:05:13,079
Speaker 2: What is the juice?

1226
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:16,880
Speaker 3: Couldn't they? Could they conceivably the time clubbers?

1227
01:05:17,599 --> 01:05:21,039
Speaker 1: There's time for sure. It's gonna be tough catching those

1228
01:05:21,039 --> 01:05:24,039
good National League teams, but there is We still have

1229
01:05:24,199 --> 01:05:26,360
two months of ball left. There's plenty of time for

1230
01:05:26,400 --> 01:05:29,360
the Marlins to get them in. You'll get themselves in

1231
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,039
a position to do so. Slick fix us not going

1232
01:05:32,039 --> 01:05:34,719
to the playoffs. Yeah, probably not, But that's that's not

1233
01:05:34,880 --> 01:05:37,519
that's less on then, and more on the fact that

1234
01:05:37,559 --> 01:05:40,239
the National League just has very, very good baseball teams

1235
01:05:40,239 --> 01:05:42,599
this year. If the Marlins were in the American League,

1236
01:05:42,639 --> 01:05:46,960
they be take they be, they be waltzing to the

1237
01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:51,840
playoffs wouldn't even be a problem. What do we have

1238
01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:54,880
for juice on that team total over TV? Did I

1239
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:55,719
didn't write it down?

1240
01:05:56,159 --> 01:05:59,280
Speaker 2: It minus one nineteen over four and a half. My

1241
01:05:59,719 --> 01:06:03,239
under for Pittsburgh is minus one oh five Miami money

1242
01:06:03,239 --> 01:06:04,360
line minus one.

1243
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:07,719
Speaker 1: All right, so we need to hit one of these

1244
01:06:08,920 --> 01:06:11,639
were last time we got us got sort of into

1245
01:06:11,639 --> 01:06:13,960
this range, we cashed a nice three teamer for like

1246
01:06:14,079 --> 01:06:17,039
six to one, So maybe that's today. This this parlay

1247
01:06:17,119 --> 01:06:20,760
is plus five fifty six for the three teamers. So

1248
01:06:20,760 --> 01:06:23,840
I'll read it off one more time. Tokyo, Brandon's going

1249
01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:27,440
a's team total over four and a half. If TV,

1250
01:06:27,519 --> 01:06:29,800
I'm gonna I'm gonna let you answer this question because

1251
01:06:29,840 --> 01:06:32,760
it's your play. If someone can't get the over four

1252
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:34,599
and a half or the team total for the a's

1253
01:06:34,800 --> 01:06:37,039
would you rather than put the full game over in

1254
01:06:37,280 --> 01:06:38,400
or a's money line?

1255
01:06:40,039 --> 01:06:41,960
Speaker 3: Uh A's money line.

1256
01:06:43,159 --> 01:06:45,679
Speaker 1: Okay, because I know, I know there are people that

1257
01:06:45,960 --> 01:06:48,039
play on locals and they have a hard time parlaying

1258
01:06:48,039 --> 01:06:50,480
team totals. So you heard it right here. TV says,

1259
01:06:50,480 --> 01:06:52,440
if you can't get the team total in your parlay,

1260
01:06:52,800 --> 01:06:56,000
go with a's money line. But if you have the option,

1261
01:06:56,119 --> 01:06:58,639
definitely use the team total. Our parlay will be graded

1262
01:06:58,719 --> 01:07:01,960
off of a's total over four and a half. That's

1263
01:07:01,960 --> 01:07:05,639
Tokyo Brandon, Brian's gonna go with reds Pirates under seven,

1264
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:08,480
and then I'm gonna use Marlin's money line. So one

1265
01:07:08,519 --> 01:07:11,440
more time, Tokyo Brandon a's team total over four and

1266
01:07:11,440 --> 01:07:14,800
a half, Brian Leonard under seven in the reds Pirates game,

1267
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:17,639
and I'll go Marlin's money line plus five fifty six.

1268
01:07:18,239 --> 01:07:20,840
That is our three team or today, head on over

1269
01:07:20,880 --> 01:07:23,480
to the wager Talk site. We'll all have something up.

1270
01:07:23,880 --> 01:07:26,039
Mine might be in KBO. I don't know if I'll

1271
01:07:26,079 --> 01:07:27,880
get to the window with one of these MLB games,

1272
01:07:28,519 --> 01:07:30,880
but you got all our opinions because we went through

1273
01:07:30,920 --> 01:07:34,239
all four games. I'll be reposting this and you can

1274
01:07:34,280 --> 01:07:38,320
always go to the wager Talk YouTube channel to watch

1275
01:07:38,360 --> 01:07:41,079
the replay if you're coming in late. Some good betting

1276
01:07:41,159 --> 01:07:43,320
advice that wasn't specific to the games. We ended up

1277
01:07:43,320 --> 01:07:45,719
going over the hour today with four games, but that's

1278
01:07:45,719 --> 01:07:49,159
because the betting conversation was so good. We appreciate all

1279
01:07:49,199 --> 01:07:52,159
of you guys, nine hundred people in here watching live

1280
01:07:52,280 --> 01:07:56,239
on a four day, four game Thursday MLB Slate. We

1281
01:07:57,079 --> 01:08:00,920
very much appreciate that. If you if you have a minute,

1282
01:08:01,119 --> 01:08:03,079
head on over to the wager Talking YouTube channel, give

1283
01:08:03,119 --> 01:08:06,000
us a like and subscribe to the page. It greatly

1284
01:08:06,039 --> 01:08:08,800
helps us out and have a great day. Maybe enjoy

1285
01:08:08,880 --> 01:08:12,159
some NFL preseason tonight, a couple of games to get

1286
01:08:12,199 --> 01:08:14,960
the juices flowing for football. But yeah, we'll be back

1287
01:08:15,079 --> 01:08:17,479
nine am tomorrow morning to close out the week. Have

1288
01:08:17,520 --> 01:08:18,359
a great day, everyone,