Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It's Thursday. It's time for
Total Bass. I'm here with my two co hosts, Brian
Leonard Tokyo Brandon. Guys. I look through the schedule this morning.
I'm fairly certain that this is the last Thursday with
like very minimal games. I think we're smooth saling basically
the rest of the way. I don't think there's a
day that there's less than like six or seven games.
So this will this will be the last sort of
show where you know there's there's a very water down slate.
Not sure why they did it, maybe trying to trying
to build in mutually mutual off days in case there's
rain now and so on and so forth. But Major
League Baseball has done it again Thursday, August seventh, and
there's four games. So the good news is not worried
about the chat and requesting games today. We're just gonna
go right in order. We're gonna do all four. However,
if you do have a question, especially if it's a
betting specific like theory betting process question, today is a
great day to get that out and get that answered.
And someone's already DMB one, so we'll get through the
four games, and then we'll also answer any questions that
you have just in general about betting Major League Baseball,
because I really truly believe we're three of the best
to do it, and you got us for an hour.
So let's get started. Right down the board. We have
what was very entertaining game yesterday. Brian leonarded and not
in the way I thought it would be. The Oakland
A's and the Washington Nationals were dueling it out. Jeffrey
Springs had a no hitter going for I think he
actually had a perfect game going for a period of time.
And then Kade Cavali look great. That was a guy
that's battled injury for you know, pretty much since he
was a first round pick back in twenty twenty. Nats
finally snapped there losing streak, and now they come back
and do it all again. I think noon Eastern today,
So A's Nationals. Do you think the Nats can build
on that momentum here?
Speaker 2: I was very happy to see Keate Cavali back in
the majors. This is a guy reminds me a lot
of like the Steven Strasburg and some others that have
just been so good and then they continue to get hurt.
He pitched pretty well yesterday. He's a guy that should
be a mainstay in their rotation for the next six years,
at least until his contract runs out, and until he
gets good and has to trade. They have to trade
him like all the other lower market teams. But yeah,
I was very happy to see that. Today we've got
Lopez going on the road buff lefties. By the way,
Lopez against Parker Lopez about a one thirty one thirty
two favorite total of nine. It's not often you find
the Athletics as a road favorite, but there is a
pretty good differential here. In starting pitching, Lopez is got
a lot of rat On his stack cast page, she
comes in with a three point nine ninety ra three
point seven to two expected one point three four whip
a little high in that regard. He is a flyball pitcher,
though he's only in the second percentile in the ground
ball rate fastball velocity only in the eighth percentiles, So
he's a left eighth that's not going to beat you
with his four seam role though that's what he really
throws most of the time thirty nine percent he throws
five pitchers, but really only four he uses double digits,
but some of his other things it looked really sharp
on his age, extension ninety fourth percentile, hard hit rate
ninety first average Backson velocity eighty ninth. So he's a
guy that we like. But he started off terrific and
then he struggled, and I think now we know what
we've got out of him, and it's still better than
what Mitchell Parker does. And that's a shame because he
looked decent last year. I mean last year he came
in four point twenty ninety RA one point three zero whip.
You know, it was his rookie see and not bad.
He wants seven to ten for Washington losing a losing
baseball team. But this year five point three five ERA,
five point five six expected one point four to seven
whip part hit rate first percentile, strikeout right fourth percentile,
amade Jackson velocity first. He's just been getting head hard.
His extension is really good. He's six foot four, eighty
fifth percentle. His chase rate's pretty good at seventy one percent.
But other than that, he has really struggled, and especially
if you take a look at some of his last
few starts, his last time out against the Brewers, he
just got bombed eight earned runs and four innings. He
seems pretty decent when he played the Twins and the
Padres before that, but he got bombed by the Milwaukee
Brewers the time before that, again seven earned runs at
four and two thirds innings, and then the Red Sox
set him pretty well. So he's hasn't given up less
than tour runs since you go all the way back
to when you played the Colorado Rockies at home back
on June eighteenth. So we know we're going to get
a good amount of runs out of this Athletics team.
The total on this game is nine. Their team total
has to be in the five range. I would think
at this point they're gonna get that five. They're gonna
get five or six in this game. And I'm not
so sure Washington has that ability to get that many
against the Athletics. I'd like the Athletics pitching staff a
little bit better. Washington's bullpen is horrendous. So they've got
a pitcher who's pitching terribly and they got to bullpen
that is terrible, and they shut them down yesterday. I
you know, it's usually these early games you tend to
lean towards the under a little bit because teams aren't
used to playing it at this time. This is an
analytics team that's gonna be playing at nine o'clock Pacific
in here in Las Vegas, California. Whatever. That might be
something to look at, but I don't want any part
of Washington. You know, I'll probably set this one out.
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna right off the right, off the top
of the right out of the gate. I'm gonna do
my parleg leg right here. It's gonna be the Oakland A's.
Well whatever, A's team total over four and a half. Uh,
it's four and a half right now at minus one thirteen.
So here's why. You know, when I compare two teams together,
I like them to be ten or more points apart
for me to take it to take a side, And
the A's actually are about fourteen points better than Washington
here with all the factors in. As a matter of fact,
the A's my numbers really like Lopez, but I don't,
which is why I'm not going to take them on
the side here. Although my numbers tell me to the
A's ranked number three and hitting in current form right
now and Washington ranks nineteen. Both bullpens pretty trashy at
the moment, but Washington's is horrible. They rank second to
last in all of MLB in current form, and Mitchell
Parker I have him twenty six on a curve of thirty.
So when you have a starting pitcher that ranks that low,
a bullpen that's in this terrible current form against the
MLB lineup that ranks, according to my numbers, number three
in Major League Baseball right now, that's that's an over
for their team total. The reason I don't want to
play them on the side is because I think Lopez
has a walk problem. According to this he's walking about
forty six percent of the guys he's striking out, which
is too high for me. I like it to be
between thirty and forty percent. Mitchell Parker's at fifty five
percent for that number, so he's bad too. But I
don't think the A's will have any trouble putting guys
on base and knocking them in. We've talked about this
team in shows before, a lot of young guys who
can really smack it good, So I think, uh, I
think they will today. I think four and a half
is Okay, it's high, but I think I think they'll
get there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, i'd agree with that. I think they get there.
Probably it's more likely they get there, in my opinion,
toward the end of the game, because you know, you
go back and you're just I'm gonna work backward here.
Both of these bullpens are horrific, like these are these
are right now, and you also have to take out
like you look at the A's bullpen and you have
to take Mason Miller out of there, and like some
of the guys that have really helped those bullpen numbers
are now gone. So I would not argue with you
if you if you said these are the two worst
bullpens in Major League Baseball right now. I think that's
a fair assessment based on who's actually down there, not
not only to not do the numbers suggest that that's
the case, but who's actually down there throwing the ball
in today's game. I think you can make a pretty
like that. That's a pretty reasonable thing to say. So,
no matter who you decide to take here, and that's
why TV, I feel like you're probably onto something with
like you know, going for your team total, no matter
who you have to take here, you are going to
have to survive probably, you know, at a minimum of
three innings of a very poor bullpen, where things could
completely go off the rails. Now I would the A's
sort of popped up on. You know, it's a short board,
and obviously my list is short. The A's look like
a really good option today when I look at you know,
Mitchell Parker's not a guy I want to back at all.
The only problem I have is the A's tend to
profile a little bit better against right handed pitching. So
you know that they have some guys that don't have
as high an ops against lefties. It's a lineup that
I think is optimal against right handed pitching. Doesn't mean
they can't hit a guy like Mitchell Parker. And you
could say the same thing really about the Nationals. Something
I talked about yesterday. The Nationals are much better against
right handed pitching. There was a point in time when
the Nationals were really playing good May into early June
where their lineup was nine left handed batters, and then
they basically would you know, when they did face a lefty,
A couple of those guys are switch hitters. They maybe
would play Dylan Cruz, Well, Dylan Cruz is down at
Rochester right now, so he's not even on the team
at this point. So you want to talk about like
a team like there, and look at what happened yesterday.
You had Jeffrey Springs taking a no hitter, perfect game,
no hitter into like the fifth or sixth inning. So
this is not a Nats lineup that profiles to do
well against left handed pitching, and they didn't last night.
They just happened to win a low scoring game. But
how many times are you going to be able to
say that? How many how many times are you gonna
be able to say, oh, the Nats grinded out of
two to one win. It's not gonna happen very often.
I look at Lopez the stat cast page which Brian
brought up. There's a lot to like there. He's a
guy that I think, and we don't really know his
ceiling yet because he doesn't have a huge sample size
at the big league level, but he's done it at
Triple A, and you know, for the most part, he's
been very good. I think he's got bombed once or twice,
but other than that, he's been very solid in Major
League Baseball so far this year, So the A's is
the only way I could play it. And TV, I
think you're off to a good start with the parlay.
I think the A's are going to do enough to
win this game and score those runs.
Speaker 2: Brian, go ahead, Yeah, I really thought this was going
to be a five and a four and a half
and you're getting him basically minus one nineteen or so.
That's not a bad bet at all. I do want
to point out, and I'm a big proponent of the
Fangrass page, the roster resource. Mister Martinez does a terrific
job on here, and TV is nice enough to produce
his numbers every day on the website and you can
download those. But if you take a look at there's
thirty teams in Major League Baseball, so when you're looking
at the top one hundred each team, if they were equal,
they would have about three guys in the top one hundred.
If you take a look at the bullpen the last
fourteen days, the best pitcher out of the bullpen for
the Nationals has been PJ. Poland, who they just pulled
up from Triple A. Only he's only thrown thirteen pitches
on Tuesday and he's ninety one. Everybody else is in
the one sixty and higher range, and that includes their
new closer. I guess he's your closer, you know, Jose Ferrer.
But this team's bullpen is really bad. And if you
take a look at they break down the hitting as well,
and in the last seven days their best hitter is
Drew Millis, the catcher, and he's ranked one twelve. They've
got a lot of guys that are really not hitting
well right now. James Wood three twenty seven, Josh Bell
three forty one, Nathaniel Low three twenty three. So you've
got a team in Washington that is not hitting right
now and their bullpen is really bad. The is may
be worth that favorite situation here, but I think the
right way to play this is just what TB talked about,
and that would be the team total.
Speaker 1: Over station play SS. Total Base is my number one
morning show. We very much appreciate that we're here Monday
to Friday, nine am, every day of the baseball season.
So if you don't if you can spare thirty seconds,
head down below or head over to YouTube, give us
a like and a subscribe on the YouTube channel on
the YouTube replay, maybe drop a comment. It really does
help our show. Since we've got time and there's only
four games, I'm gonna hit some questions like this. So
I think this is a good segue from what we
were talking about, and we'll make it a little bit
more general. So Eve Evans says, what's the best approach
to handicapping relief pitching? Brian, you kind of started to
talk about it in the context of the Nationals A's game,
but can you just expand that to like your general
approach to handicapping bullpens.
Speaker 2: Bullpens all depends if you ask me. They all depend
on the usage patterns. If you've got a team that's
got their starting rotation and they're all going five or
six innings, your bullpen should be in pretty good shape
if you handicap both. This is the one thing from
year to year you can handicap what you're going to
do from a hitting standpoint. You get a pretty good
idea from a starter standpoint, depending on injuries, You've got
a pretty good idea in the bullpens. One year and
TV cabret back me up on this. One year a
team will be great, but look at the Dodgers the Dridders.
In the offseason, we thought the Dodgers' bullpen was going
to be the greatest thing to slice bread. And because
of this starting pitching injuries on that team, they have
had to pitch a lot more and they're not really
able to be healthy and so they're not going to
be as good. So from a bullpen standpoint, you got
to realize these players are all for the most part,
they're all pretty in the same range, but it all
depends on how often they're being used. And right now,
Washington starting pitcher has been so bad all year, the
bullpen just is being used up. So you continue to
bring guys up and down from the miners, and they
just like I just said, they're brought the two guys
up this week from the miners. So it's hard to
take a look at it. If it's starting from doing well,
your bullpen should be doing well. Now if they're not,
then you know you've got a really bad bullpen. Yeah.
Speaker 3: The way I approach it is so bullpen is basically
a team of guys, and what you have to do
is current form is pretty important. Like Brian mentioned, a
winning team is automatically not automatically, but generally they're gonna
have a better They're gonna have better bullpen numbers. We've
talked about this on previous shows. If you're a lot
of games, it means you're going to leverage your best guys.
We've talked about this many times. The Rockies have had
before the trade deadline, had had some serious talent in
their bullpen, but they never used them because they were
always getting beat twenty to ten and just throwing out
you know, raggedy Ann and Andy out there to get
smacked around the rest of the game. So that's one thing.
Another factor is who who in the bullpen has been
leveraged a lot. You do have to keep track of
whether the closer has been, you know, called on two
days in a row. You know he's not going to
pitch on that day, so you got to take a
look at who else is available, and if they suck,
they suck, and you can bet against him in that situation.
I like to look at for bullpens. I really like
to look at whip because it tells you how many
guys are putting on base, and you have to look
at it as a collection. Though, so grating starters predicting
how starters are going to play and predicting how bullpens
are going to play totally different games. Starters are much
easier to predict than bullpens are because bullpens have so
many factors and you have to cap them as a group.
Speaker 1: So I what I've noticed, probably in the last maybe
five years, is that, like, I feel like the bullpen
usage is oftentimes baked into the number a little bit.
And when I say that, it's like, Okay, if you
go back a decade, I feel like just it was
good enough to just track bullpen usage because I don't
know that the books were paying attention to it as much,
And I feel like you could find some some real
value just straight up being like this guy pitched two
of the last three days. This guy pitch three of
the last four. Now, if you go over to MLB
dot com, I mean, in two seconds, you can look
at it on a chart. Like So to think that
the books are not very very conscious of who's pitched
and what teams have watered down bullpens, I think you'd
be a little naive to think that they're not very
conscious of that. It takes two seconds to pull up
that chart so if you can pull it up in
two seconds, so does any so can any sports book
operator making the lines for these games. So what I've
personally started to do is and this I didn't really
think of this until I started really getting into handicapping
Triple A Baseball and figuring out where the edges were there.
And it's like in Triple A it's all about spreading
out innings and like if a guy pitched today, he's
not gonna bitch tomorrow and stuff like that. So when
I'm handicapping Triple A, I really look and say, okay,
like who who do I think this manager is going
to use today? And do I like that? And so
I've started to do that for Major League Baseball. So
if you're just asking the way I personally handicap all pens, yes,
I've got the whip there, Yes I have all the
all the numbers that are relevant you need to look at.
But you also have to understand that the books look
at those numbers. So to find an edge, what I'll
tend to do is say, okay, so this is the
starting pitcher, so I'm going to estimate three to four
innings of bullpen usage. If I'm aj Hinch or if
i'm you know, whatever head coach is coaching the game,
who am I going to use here in the sick
Who does it make sense to use in the sixth,
Who does it make sense to use in the seventh.
If they're not going to have Devin Williams available, it's
a bad example. We don't want to why him out
there anyway. Who is it going to be instead? And
then I can start to get an idea. I'll give
you a perfect example. The game I talked about yesterday
with the Twins. I straight up told you with my handicap, Okay,
Pierson Ole is probably going to pitch three to four innings.
They just signed Thomas Hatch, He's probably going to get
out there. Is that a guy that I can live
with being out there for three to four innings? Well,
he's throwing the ball, Okay at Omaha, they probably haven't
seen him. He's probably fresh, So yeah, I can live
with that. And then I kind of like and then
I kind of make a note, Okay, now I'm at
the seventh inning, what happens in the seventh tier who's
getting the leverage spot? And if I can sort of
map it out and check all those boxes. Then I'm like,
then I have to be Then I'm like okay with it.
If I get to the eighth inning and I'm like,
oh shit, they're gonna have this guy in a leverage
spot and he's typically a seventh inning guy, or he
hasn't shown the ability to throw pitches in like a
high leverage situation, then I probably got to punk the
brakes a little bit. So that's to me, that's how
I'm personally handicapping bullpens. And I just go through the
bullpen and I've got little pluses and minuses by someone
that I think is better than where the market thinks
they are or worse. And if I get a bunch
of pluses on a given day, I'm more likely to
bet that team. Go go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just want to touch on two things. First
of all, if the team's on a losing streak, as
pbe mentioned, you're not going to use your better relievers.
But they don't want him to go to way, so
a lot of times they will be games the team
will be losing, you will get their best relievers because
they haven't pitched in a while. Now that's a good thing,
but if you're a closer, and we've seen these over
the years, and you bring a closer into a non
safe situation, they just don't have the same the same
mental ability to get pumped up in the situation like that.
And also as a secondary thing, if you do have
problems handicapping the bullpens, they got first five innings. Dave
Cochin made a living off the first five innings the
last a few years of his life, and he just
had he got tired of being beaten late in the
game by bad bullpens, and so he played the first
five innings. That's a different way to get around it.
Speaker 3: One other thing to mention is these guys are such
creatures of habit. I've been around them when I was
a scout and there. If you've ever seen the movie
Major League, you know that one guy had the the doll.
He was like a voodoo guy in his life. Some
guys are actually like that. They have like all these
like good luck charm and stuff. Yeah, especially pictures and
pitchers more than hitters, And if you knock them off
their schedule just a little bit, they just go crazy.
And closers are no exception. Closers might be the worst
if you put a closer in the eighth inning, he
just just freaks out, you know. So, yeah, these guys
are really they're humans and their creatures of habit.
Speaker 1: I'll add one thing, So, in typical Dave coch And fashion, though,
he was ahead of the curve on that, so like
he was he was ahead of doing that because I
remember when he sort of made that point, and this
was years ago. This was like years ago when he
kind of like was saw okay, starters, like teams just
aren't having starters go as deep into games. I don't
want four innings of any Major League bullpen. But you
can't really do that now because the books have gotten
so insanely good at pricing first five. It is so
hard to find actual like first five value on a
day to day basis that it's I mean, it's it's
still a good thought process, but when I look at
the first five numbers, very rarely do I see like
a ton of line value. I feel like the books
really and it makes sense because they're able to you're
giving them a smaller window, like it's they're they're going
to be able to more accurately price stuff, and they're
going to be able to move off. If anything, if
they make a mistake on a first five, it's quickly
exposed and it's moved to the to the right number.
So I found that I find that very challenging to
find line value on the first five. Not to say
that it's not a good way to look at it,
but I think the books have caught up to guys
like Cocain and you know who were doing that in
twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, before before that was the thought
process of virtually everyone handicapping baseball. But it's a really
interesting conversation. Evie Evans, thank you for that question. That
was that. That was a great question, really good conversation.
I do really truly believe that the nuance of like
handicapped a bullpen is is the difference between you being
profitable and not vetting the sport. So it's a great question.
All right, let's get back to games. We still have
three of them, and DK, I don't know if you
showed up a couple of minutes away, he said, athletics
runs so Tokyo Brandon's parlay wag is A's team total
over four and a half. And I think we all
sort of agree that there could be some runs at
points in that game. But if you did show up late,
as always, head on over to the Ways you talk
to YouTube channel and just check out the replay which
is up live. And if this show is live and
on demand every single day, all right, time to head
out west. I said that I thought there would be
a good spot to jump in with the White Sox
in this series at some point. I have not done
it yet because I haven't found the good spot to
do it yet. Brian Leonard, I don't know if that
spot is today either. The Mariners have dominated this series.
I know the White Sox kind of made a little
run last night. It was an eight to sixth final.
Do the Mariners complete the sweep today? And the do
they do it in convincing fashion?
Speaker 2: Is the question got Smith? Smith going for the White
Sox Gilbert or Seattle. Gilbert's about a one eighty favored
or so right now, seven and a half to the
under minus one twenty one, fifteen something to that range.
Shane Smith, if you take a look at his recent starts,
he has not gone five innings since playing the Houston
Astros on June tenth. We're looking at going backwards. We're
looking at four point one, three, four point one, four
point two, two, four point one, and he's given up
at least tour and runs in each of those games.
So I liked him earlier in the season. He was
pitching pretty well. Right now, I'm not as big of
a fan his numbers. If you take a look at
the stadcast numbers, some red, some blue, some bad blue.
Chase Ray twelfth percentile walk grade eighteenth are hit fourteenth.
He has regressed a little bit. He's got ninety one
innings right now, eighty five strikeouts, so he's less than
one strike operating. And you always have to take a
look at the bullpens when you've got a guy who's
probably not going to go five innings and they're pretty
set in the bullpen pretty well. A lot of that
is just like we talked about. They haven't been winning.
They have Grant Taylor is probably their closer. They got
a few guys they use, but he hasn't pitched since
Friday the first. I'm sure he'll get in somehow in
this game. Steven Wilson's pitched only twice in the last
you know, five days. Jordan Leisure has not pitched in
the last four days, so they'll have their better relievers
going in today's game, I believe, even though they may
not be winning. So that's something to keep in mind
when you're taking a look at the opposing pitcher. Obviously,
Logan Gilbert, we know he's what he can do. He's
been a terrific pitcher in his career. This is his
fifth season. He comes in the three point four to
five VRA two point seven to two expected zero point
eight nine. Went very good in that regard. The only
negative on his chart is his average exs of velocity
in the twenty first percentile, but one hundredth percent tient
extension six foot six sat ball gets right on you,
and we take a look at the fastball of last sea.
It's only the sixty eighth percentile, but that's still better
than league average. His his for saimer ninety five point four,
but he uses at the same amount as a slider
and his sliders at thirty five percent, both of them
thirty five percent split her twenty percent. So he's got
a really nice five pitch mix. But really it's it's
the three that he uses the most that are really good.
Let's take a look at the Statle bullpen because they
have been winning, and we can see that they have
been able to use their better pitches as of late.
In fact, last night Munos went twenty six pitches. He
might not I pitched today twenty one for Bizarre Doohspire thirteen.
So overall the last three days they've only had those
three guys really that have been pitching. On Tuesday, they
did use the bullpen game power. I had to pitch
twenty and he's pitched really well out of the bullpen.
If you remember him from Kansas City, he was a starter.
He's been very good in the bullpen for Seattle in
casey look at me in thirty eight. So yeah, there,
both bullpens are in good shape here and which makes
me look at the owner. But the line is seven
and a half here in this game still I don't think.
I think Seattle may get a little bit better hitting here,
but I don't want to lay that number. So at
this point I was luck you. I was hoping to
get a place to play Chicago, but it looks like
I'll be passing on them in the entire series, and
I don't want to lay that big number with Seattle.
Speaker 3: Yeah, when Brian mentioned it earlier. I have my pitcher
projections up. I project the strikeouts, out hits, walks, all
that for every starting pitcher, plus I ranked the bullpens
and the lineups. So you can download that for free
today because there's just a few games. Took me only
a few minutes to put it together, so it's free today.
So go to my page the way you're talking, download that.
I have an MLB playout, Brian certainly will Adam will
if he doesn't already, So go to our pages and
see what we've got because we put free plays up
almost every day as well. Regarding this game, I would
really like to play the Mariners here, but I haven't yet,
and I'm not sure why I haven't. I got Gilbert
ranked number four on a curve, but thirty out of
all starting pitchers. But if you look at his numbers
against these batters, not that great. Two eighty six average
against in seven to seventy nine ops against. That's not
really good. But as people have been mentioning in the comments,
he is a good home pitcher. But the White Sox
I got them ranked number eight and hitting, and I
got Seattle ranked number twenty in current form. I don't know.
I think my man Seattle's really been smacking the ball
the last two games, though, so I think I would
bump those up just from the eye test. So obviously
Seattle has a much better bullpen. So I think Seattle
will probably win this game. But my numbers don't give
me the projection I want to bet it. So do
I bet with my with my brain and my numbers,
or do I bet with my heart. My eye test
and my feelings say Seattle should easily win this game,
but my numbers say it'll be a tight game. So
I'm kind of stuck on this one. I haven't bet
it yet.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm worried for the White Sox that this might
be one of the one of the young team swoons
here that we've talked about right like it's it's almost
unavoidable when you have a roster of all first and
second year players, a lot of young guys, which is
essentially what the White Sox roster is now. We've seen
it with the Marlins at times. We're seeing one right
now with the Nationals the A's. The A's were the
best example of this earlier when they lost like twenty
one of twenty two games, and they tend to come
after a period of playing well. So it's like this
White Sox group got a taste of having a little
bit of success out of the All Star break. They're
playing well, guys are having a good time, things are going,
things are going really good. Suddenly they've lost three straight,
starting to make mistakes. They're not you know, they're not
getting the timely hits anymore. So there's a couple of
guys slumping. So I wouldn't be that surprised if the
White Sox if this losing streak lasted a little longer
than three games, you know, especially with what they have
coming up. Now they're going to be home. They have
a home stand coming up, but it's going to be Guardians, Tigers, Royals,
three teams that really really need wins over the next
ten days. Like, it wouldn't surprise me at all if
the White Sox fell into these one of these sort
of stretches where they lose eight of nine, because all
the other young teams have done it this year and
now this group is finally finally starting to face some adversity.
You want to talk about running out of gas, I
think that's what we've seen with Shane Smith. I mean,
the guy was an All Star. He had an all
Star caliber first half, especially if you throw out June
into July, and he was clearly just out of gas.
They they I don't know what the exact reason was,
but he definitely went on the il or he got
like a ten day stint, probably just to give him
some time off after his appearance in the All Star Game.
I don't think he pitched. He pitched the one inning
in the All Star Game, and then he wasn't. He
didn't pitch until August first, which was his most recent
outing against the Angels, where he did look a little
bit better. So he got, you know, into the fifth inning.
He didn't get totally blown up. Still four walks a
little bit concerning, but he he was good enough in
that start, in my opinion, so he could be fine.
Like I wouldn't be that surprised if he came out
and throw it through the ball respectable, But man, like,
you're still up against the Mariners who have as Tokyo.
Brannon did a great job of pointing out their top
arm at least like Logan Gilbert got to remember too,
he had a stretch of time where he was hurt
this year, and like, if he wasn't Logan, Gilbert very
much might be in the mix with like the Schoobls
and the Crochets for cy Young talk if he didn't
hurt himself and miss you know, five six weeks and
then have to work his way back from injuries. So yeah,
you could even look at this like, hey, we're getting
Gilbert at a little bit of a bargain. As crazy
as that is to say where the price in this
game is, arguably he maybe should be a bigger favorite.
So the fact that you can get Mariners minus one
half close to a pick might close to one minus
one on five minus one ten might actually be the
value in this one, because I don't know that the
books have fully adjusted to Gilbert being the cy Young
Ace caliber pitcher that he actually is. So I know
you didn't expect to hear that from me today because
I've been very pro White Sox. But I think this
could be another blowout. And if if Gilbert's on and
he's cruising, you're probably looking at the White Sox playing
from behind, and I just don't think this is a
White Sox scene that's gonna come from behind right now,
so I actually lean toward the Mariners here. All right,
we have let's go right on to the next game.
I do see your guys questions some really good questions,
and we will get more betting theory questions over the
next half hour. We'll also lock in the final two
legs of the Parlay Tokyo brand and started us off
with the A's team total. Brian and I will add
one here over the course of the next thirty minutes.
So stay with us and let's work our way through
this four games. Late next game, actually, you know, I
suppose that you're gonna throw one in sort of prime
time tonight, Brian, on this on this thrilling four games slate,
at least you're getting schemes against the Reds, Like, that's
a pretty interesting game right there. For no other reason
than Paul Skeen's is a generational talent and it's great
to see him pitch anytime he gets to step on
the mount. The Reds fell short yesterday, but like man,
I felt like everything went against him in that game,
including every call, so it was like almost like they
were doomed, like regardless of what happened but now they
turn around. It's Brady Singer, who finally looked good last
time out. It's Paul Skeens, who's arguably the best pitcher
in the National League. How are you seeing reds pirates here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had the reds is my playing in the
parlay which killed the parlor yesterday. By the way, I
didn't have a chance to watch the game. I had
some other things going on yesterday, but I did hear
and I did see some things on the internet where
I guess the umpire really called a bad game. It
was really hurting Cincinnati. Not an excuse, but maybe they'll
get a little bit better calls today if that's the situation.
But you got Brady Singer going against Paul Skins here.
Skean's about a one sixty five favorite total of seven,
slightly to the over. Here's a quick question or a
quick statement that I don't think anybody would know about.
I'm just talking about the roster resource page where they
rate the pictures from the last fourteen days. The number
one starter in Major League Baseball over the last fourteen days,
Brady Singer. Brady Singer has had two really good starts
in a row. He has struggled. He's been very inconsistent
this year. He's either been good or he's been bad.
It has been really no in between. But he's on
a nice run right now. And actually they're eighth inn
and guy Tony Santillion is the number one rated reliever
neither Obviously when you take a look at the bullpens,
nobody know none of the best pictures for the Reds
pitch yesterday and on Tuesday they only threw a combine
eleven innings. So I think we'll get going to see
the Reds bullpen in better shape here, but they will
probably have to have the lead in order to do that,
and they're going up against one of the best pitchers
in baseball at Paul Skins. But getting back to Brady
Singer on the season, four point three six cra and
his whip is one point three to one. But his
last two starts, he shut out the Braves on a
four hitter in six innings last time out, and before that,
you give up one earned run is seven and a
third against the Washington National excuse me, at Tampa Bay
Rays and you only give up three hits in that one.
Not before that, Washington bombed them but he played the Rockies,
he played Miami, and he played Boston, and the Boston
game was short. He only had three innings there, but
the other two games he was decent. So maybe he's
on one of those upswings. And when you can get
a pitcher one what I considered the better team at
this price range, it may be something to look at
when you're looking at Paul Skins here, one of the
best pitchers in baseball. Obviously still a six and eight
record on the season. Two point oh two. That's that's crazy,
two point five three expected dra zero point nine two whip.
He is all read all over the stackcast page, so
he has no need to talk about that. The guy's
just a terrific pitcher. He throws. He now throws seven
pitches anywhere from four percent on the cutter all the
way up to his fifty or on his fastball ninety
eight point two on his average fastball ninety four point
nine is league average. He's just a terrific picture. Looking
at these things here, I think we may have some
value on playing the under and it's sitting there at seven.
I know that the Pirates hitters have done pretty well lately,
but it's all been the fringe guys. If you go
back to the Ross resource page, it's been the fringe
guys that have done it for the pirates. And let's
stick a look. We've got top one hundred over the
last seven days. Spencer Horro it's number nine, Nickozalis number
seventy two, Andrew McCutcheon seventy three, kind of FILEFFA fifty two.
So it's not even you know, O'Neill Cruz going crazy
onor with Brian Reynolds. It's these guys that have been
the past struggles a little bit. So I kind of
like the under here. I'm gonna use that as my
parlay on today's card, And to be totally honest with you,
I'm probably gonna pass on today's card. I just don't
With four games, I'm not seeing anything enough to play
give to my clients. But you can get the under
seven right now at you know, minus minus one oh
five or so, and that's the way I'll play it,
and hopefully Pittsburgh will do what they normally do when
Paul Skins is on the mountain and not score. So
that'll be my take on this game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, guys, it's so difficult to win at sports betting.
So what we have to do is rely on things
that we know. And what do I know? I know
Paul Skeins is a pretty good pitcher. So I'm going
to put a bet somehow backing him being a good
pitcher because I know he is a good pitcher. How
good is he? Well? At home, he's pitched sixty two innings,
he has he has sixty two strikeouts in thirteen walks.
He's got a one eight seven ERA, but he's only
won three games. He's three and four. So those are
amazing numbers though, and if you look at how he's
performed against these Reds batters even more amazing. A one
to seventy nine average against and a four to seventy
six OPS. That's almost three hundred points below my Doza
Ligne for OPS, which is seven point fifty. That is
pretty incredible stuff. I'm projecting him to allow three hits
in this game, and if you look at his last
home starts, he has not allowed five hits. He's only
allowed five hits once in five starts. So I took
a look at DraftKings that his hits is four and
a half for this game. I think under four and
a half hits for Schemes would be a decent bet.
It's juiced pretty badly though, It's like minus one sixty
or something. But I mean, you think they're gonna get
five hits on him? I don't, So yeah, I'm gonna
bet what I know, and I know Schmes is good.
I have him ranked number two out of two hundred
and twenty starting pitchers, so yeah, he's right behind Treik Skuble.
He's pretty good and he doesn't walk anyone either, So
Red's are gonna find it hard to score here. I
don't argue. I wouldn't argue with Brian's under either though,
because Singer has been pretty good. He has good stats
against these batters as well, so I think the Pirates
are going to have a hard time scoring at least
at the beginning of the game as well. So a
first five under or either team's team total under might
be a good bet here.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I have no problem with like backing schemes to achieve
in some way, shape or form, but betting the Pirates
here would just be insanity, like betting on the Pirates
to win the game at this price, and it has
nothing to do with skins and that's why I want
to make make the point, like I have no issues
if you want to, if you like schemes and you're like, Okay,
I want to take his k's, I would. I would
not take him to win the game because it's correlated
to the Pirates winning the game. I have no problem
with the Skins achievement on angle if you but that's
the only possible way that you could justify playing the
Pirates here. The reason is they are for whatever reason
they're I don't want to say they're not trying to win.
It's not the right turn because every anyone, any Major
League Baseball player stepping onto a big league field is
trying to win. But for some reason, the Pirates have
a more optimal roster at Indianapolis right now than they
do in Pittsburgh. Someone's gonna have to, like, do they
get money for winning Triple A? Like I wonder because
I know that guy, I know, the Pirates owner loves
his you know, keeping dollars in his pocket. Someone needs
to let me know if they get a black a
bonus for winning Triple A, because that Indianapolis indian seems
very good right now, and the fact that like they
traded for Cam Devaney and he hasn't been called up yet.
Is crazy to me. When they moved Adam Frasier for him,
why you wouldn't have then put him in the big
leagues because he's had a great season at Triple A?
Makes no sense. Now they get Ronnie Simone from the
Marlins organization, who was up with the Marlins. He's playing
great at Triple A? Why has he not been thrown
into the mix yet. But the reason that's important is
the guys that they are trotting out there on big
league games. Livia or pagera trash leading him, he's leading off,
Alex Canario's batting two oh five, Trail is batting under
two hundred. Like, these are guys starting every day essentially
for the Pirates right now. So to me, it's like
I can't justify it. And I know they had some
wins for a stretch. I don't know how. I don't
know how they had like an eight and three stretch.
Probably playing the Rockies helped a little bit, but like,
how can you lay a dollar seventy with that team?
I don't care who's on the mount so it could
only be the Reds. Colin Gregory says leads leading Reds
plus one and a half. If it was a better price,
if I didn't have to lay as much juice, I'd
certainly agree with you on that obviously, like there's a
little bit of plus money value, but again, you're still
going to have to beat schemes. So I have no
bet here. But I guess the reason I'm sort of
like on my going off on my tangent is A,
we have the time, and B I don't want you
laying a dollar seventy with the Pirates here. I think
it's a really bad idea. So no bet for me.
But don't bet the Pirates at this price. It's just
not a good bet.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, bright, Yeah, I was gonna mention. I looked
at the Reds at plus the one and a half
and I thought about that, but it was minus one fifty,
and I think the under the seven overall is probably
I don't want to lay. I'm not a big good
guy laying all out juice. If you notice in our
parless usually play underdogs. I will say that that that's
the situation where you've got to start a pitcher of
this one six games all year, and I just I
don't remember offhand. Has there ever been a cy Young
winner the head a losing.
Speaker 1: Record Hernandez, Felix, Mariners, maybe the gram Mets, I don't remember.
Those are the only two that come to mind. The
gram with the Mets, Felix with the Mariners. I don't
think they had great win loss records, and I think
they both won a SI Young at some point. But
other than that, Remember they gave to guy in the
Red Sox one year because he won twenty games, but
he was like, not a great pitcher.
Speaker 2: I remember, that's when I thought wins and lost was
mentioned nothing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was like twenty one and four and it's
like not even a pitcher. I can queue up off
the top of my head right now. It was the
guy who's also on the Tigers. I just can't remember
his name to save my wife, but yeah.
Speaker 2: Mickey Lolitch or something.
Speaker 3: To just mention one point to back up the how
in the world can you bet the Pirates at minus
one eighty today? Theory uh Skeens has a one eight
ERA in sixty two innings and he's got a losing
win loss record, so that should be enough for you
to not bet the Pirates today. Bet bet bet on
Skeens somehow excelling, or bet either one of the teams
not to score a lot of runs.
Speaker 2: Yeah, since team and you're getting them in this price range,
I mean makes a lot of sun shot.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I believe the books put too much
weight on starting pitching for sure, because this line is
strictly because Skeens is starting. I mean, if that was
a Falter, there's no way, Well, Falter plays for someone
else now, but there's no way that line would be
what it is, right, So, uh, strictly starting pitching and
Skeens he's not. I don't think he goes like seven
eight innings, right, He's like a five to six maybe
seven inning guy, right.
Speaker 2: So seven normal? Right now? They don't want to wear
him out, that's right, Give him five and.
Speaker 1: Fly Robert s. Yeah. This is one of my biggest
sort of gripes with the with Major League Baseball. In
addition to that ghost runner rule, it is teams manipulating
guys service time and like being being essentially being allowed
to do it. It's the only sport where like there's
there's upside to not having the best possible roster at
the big league at like like your major league level.
It's the only sport where it's like there's actual upside
to not doing it, and teams do take advantage of
that in different ways, and I dislike that's there's got
to be I don't. I think they should work to
like make that less of a thing. If a guy
deserves to be in the majors, he should be in
the majors, plain and simple, like just you can't convince
me otherwise. There are scenarios where it's like, yeah, if
you want a guy to play every day and there's
not space for him at the big legue level, I
get all that, but like I truly, but like the
major should be the best twenty six players in your organization,
obviously position related, and too many teams are not doing
that because they're trying to save a dollar down the road,
and I wish there was a way to get that
out of the sport. It's very It bothers me, but
that's a.
Speaker 3: Good Contracts are so funny because you know, you see
guys not being on the major league roster until a
month into the season because they don't want to pay
him for the full season, or you know, contracts are
really complicated baseball fun.
Speaker 1: Louis Vuitton don before we go on to the last game,
he brings, so this is something he dm to me,
and he says, I've done this for four years straight.
Every year, sixty nine to seventy three percent of baseball
games are decided by two plus runs. That's that's true
about twenty set. It's always been. It's like twenty seven
to twenty eight. Twenty nine percent on a given year
is about one run. That that's the number of games
decided by one run. So what he's saying is and
my reason reason I'm bringing it up now is because
we just talked about reds one plus one and a half,
but not the value at the at the current price.
He says, I got tired of people saying don't lay
minus one and a half with home teams and taking
minus plus one and a half is a good play
when it's not, or creating minus one lines. And so
he sent me a chart and he basically said, Okay,
these are teams that have lost by two plus runs
at seventy five percent or more. And it's interesting who's
on this chart, Tigers, believe it or not, The Tigers
thirty nine of their forty six losses, eighty four point
eight percent of their losses are by two or more runs.
The Cubs eighty two percent of their losses by two
or more runs. I guess like what he's getting I
think what he's getting at is why not lay the
minus one and a half more? Don't pay the juice.
I'm with you on not paying the juice for plus
one and a half. I do think that there's like
a very strict cutoff. If you're going to go out
and lay a dollar forty to get plus one and
a half on a daily basis, you will lose money.
But as far as his like, I don't really know
what his question is, but I just figured I would
throw it out for discussion. I honestly think the books
do a pretty good job of pricing the run lines
for the most part. I personally like plus one and
a half, but it's when I can find a really
good value spot with a team that doesn't win many games,
so like a White Sox or like a Nationals, because
I think these teams are going to find ways to
lose more often than not, and so it gives me
a little safety blanket there, and I'm willing to do
it at a certain price. Do either of you before
we go into the last game want to comment on
just run line betting and anything for Louis vatad Don,
who's apparently betting the run lines on a daily basis.
Speaker 2: I don't play minus run lines very often, almost never.
I always like to take the one and a half
because the team's goal is to win the game, and
if you win the game by one, they leave the field,
they're all excited, they accomplish their goal. And in the
late innings, when you're up by more than one run,
they let that guy steal second base. Sometimes I let
them steal third and that's why I don't do it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, my way of thinking about this is, first of all,
with the plus one and a half, I would only
bet plus one and a half if I think that
underdog is going to win on the money line, and
I would take the plus one and a half just
a security, because I would never bet them to lose
by one because the chances are, like you said, less
than twenty percent, probably less than ten percent, right, So
if you like an underdog and you want to take them,
take a one and a half and then you know,
pay a little bit of juice, but you get a
security blanket there regarding the minus one and a half
or like what you just mentioned. Those statistics you just mentioned,
I think those are very manager specific statistics because some managers,
if you watch the games, once they go down by
four or five runs, they pretty much throw in the towel.
And I think that's what that's an indication of. I
don't know if Cubs manager is throwing in the towel
or anything, but that team is way too talented to
be losing that many games by two or more runs.
So I think it's a managerial tactical Perhaps so, but
I generally don't bet minus one and a half because
I hate nothing more than to pick the right side
and to lose my bet when they win by one.
I just hate it, so I generally don't bet them.
Speaker 1: TV make a good point, and you know, I want
to point out that the top two teams on that
list are the Tigers and the Cubs, two very good teams.
And I and I think what you're and what you're
saying has some merit because the Tigers and the Cubs
go out and expect to win essentially every day. So
why would a guy like aj Hinder Craig council risk
deploying resources down a couple of runs when they know
that they're probably going to win their next three four games,
Like why would they risk messing up a week? You're
just not going to see that from a from a
good team. Now from bad teams that don't have established
roles in the bullpen and they're really just flying by
the seat of their pants. It's it's a little bit different,
and they may look at like being down two is like, Okay,
this is like you know a good chance for like
a like a look like the White Sox if they're
down two against the Mariners, like this might be the
best shot we have to to stay in a game,
this whole series tomorrow. We've got Logan Gilbert right, Like,
so I do think that there is some merit to
that point, whereas the Cubs are gonna be like, all right,
we're down five, who needs innings, Let's get the guy
with the sixty r A and get him a couple
of ks, and because we're probably gonna be in position
to win our next three or four games, It's it's
a really good that's that's a that's a great point
and there's some data to back that up in that
in that chart. All right, last game on the board
for Thursday, Uh, Marlins Braves. We've got Uri Perez, who's
Who's a guy that we've talked about quite a bit
on the show. And our guy Cookie Carlos Carrasco, who
look really good on his call up to the Braves
after pitching very good in the minors for a month. So,
Brian Leonard, this is your guy, Carlos Carrasco, longtime guardian.
I know you want to see him do well with
the Braves. Does he pitch well tonight?
Speaker 2: Yeah, he surprised me. You you had mentioned in a
minor league starts that he was pitching very well, and
he brought that to the managers. I hope that continues
for him personally. I go off, there are terrific line
service the Odds Logic website, and they're making some changes
to the site. They're gonna make it even better. And
I sent Johnny over all my information today. So now
unfortunately he's cut off. He's updating my system right in
the middle of the show, so I can't give you
what the corol lines are on this game. So somebody
else is going to have to do it. But we've
got Urie Perez, as you mentioned, and now has a
winning record four and three on the season, two point
seven o e r A two point seven to six expected.
That's coming off of the obviously the major surgery missed
all last season. He's been really good. I mean he's
his whip is zero point nine to four. He's now
averaging more strikeouts than the he's pitched. This is a
guy right now you wanna you want to back if
you get a chance. You take a look at his
recent starts. He just played the Yankees. He's held the
Yankees to two hitter, two hits and six innings nowhere
and runs. Before that, he played at hot Brewers uh
five innings, one earned run, two hits. Before that, I
played the Padre's a really good offensive team, five innings,
two hits or two inning runs, two hits, and then
the Orioles seven and zero since they reads five and one,
Minnesota twins six and zero. Yeah, he's pitching well. I
love him in this game. It's not often you're gonna
have them as the road of paper here against Atlanta team.
But the Brewers yesterday were my best bet they were
my four percent play. They led, they fell down one
nothing in the first sitting and then came back, and
Stryder just doesn't have it right now. Tryder is probably
the most overrated pitcher in Major League Baseball right now.
Not the same pitcher as he was when he was healthy.
This is Atlanta offense not very good. If you take
a look at as I mentioned earlier, with the teams lately,
on what they have done. Let's check that out over
at the resource page. We've got last seven days for
the Atlanta Braves. They have two players that are better
than one hundred, Asie Albi's eighty eight. He had one
big game, and then Eli White, who hits for no power,
is ranked twenty six. So their major guys, the Olsons,
the profiles, the Murphys. Harris is hitting well, he's the
top twenty. He's finally coming around. This is not a
team I'm looking to back to score a lot of
runs right now, and they're doing so against the guy
who's just pitching phenomenal. Will it continue, not forever, but
right now he has just been terrific. And so I
like Miami in this game, and they did get that
back on the winning track yesterday. I think they continues
today with Miami.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd really like to take Miami in this one,
but I haven't yet. A lot of things point their direction,
the fact that Atlanta's season is over and the guys
are just playing for contracts, and the fact that Miami's
a really good road team. There's one red flag, though,
and that Suri Pras's stats against these batters in his career.
They've lit him up. He's got a three point fifty
average against and a one fifty nine ops against. Sample
sizes kind of small, but there are batters in this
lineup that have absolutely tagged him in his career, So
that kind of scares me a little bit. One other
thing that kind of scares me is the fact that
straight up Atlanta is a more talented team. So you know,
they're in the dumps right now and their season is
basically worthless and over, but they're just more talented. So
I just can't emotionally make myself bet them. But Miami
has the much better bullpen right now. Current for Miami
ranked nine, Atlanta ranked twenty five. Lineup current form Miami
ranked seventeen, Atlanta ranked twenty three. So Miami has huge advantage.
And I've got Eerie Perez ranked five on a curve
of thirty out of all starting pitchers. So everything points
to Miami except his history against these batters and the
fact that remove myself from the data. But emotionally, I
just can't bet the inferior team. I just can't make
myself do it. Just those two things.
Speaker 1: Every day, I you know, I'm watching the Marlins. I
feel like on a day to day basis at this point,
and it's like every day I don't think I can
like this team anymore. And then something happens and I'm
just like, it makes me like them even more. And
yesterday I'm watching Marlin's astras didn't have a cent on
the game, although are over that we talked about on
the show was over in like the third inning or
very early in the game. A lot of runs off
the starters yesterday, but it's late in the game, and
I think it was Foucher. Fauche, however you say his
his name was, was the relief pitcher on the mound
in this scenario, bases load a game on the line,
jumps off the mound and just makes a tremendous play
and and and play and throw home and like the
whole play was awesome. They basically saved the game for
the Marlins. And then you get the Marlins broadcasters talking
about how how hard they worked the pitchers in PFPS
and how they they're preaching like to the pitchers, like
being aggressive in terms of like making plays on the mound,
which is it's just very different from like the league
strayed from that back when guys like I mean Greg
Maddocks used to be a great defensive pitcher always would
attack the ball and make a lot of plays. Now
it's like stand there like a statue and let your
fielders make the play. And a lot of a lot
of times I've literally watched pitchers this year let a
pop up drop instead of just going and catching the
ball because like the mentality for a lot of pitchers is,
you know, let the fielders make the plays. And he
attacked that ball, made a through a dark to the catcher.
It was just a great play. And it's just another
like Marlins are just outfit, you know, they just are
operating on another level in terms of developing talent right now.
You love to see it. As far as Jerry Press concerned,
Tokyo brind and you pointed his numbers out against the Braves,
I think they're they're deceiving because his only start this
year against the Braves was early, early on when he
was coming back, when he was still clearly rehabbing, still
had no real command of the zone. And then if
you go back to his starts against the Braves prior
to that, it's an eternity ago. I mean, this dude
was hurt for two years, so it's like he's not
even the same he was a kid. Then it's like
he's aged like three years since then. So I would
back him playing. I mean, I would be more. I'm
more like, I think he's more likely to pitch the
way he's pitched pretty much since the first of June,
which is five six innings, completely locking down a lineup,
than oh, he's going to struggle against the Braves because
they have some decent numbers against it. Because I just
don't think the Braves, this Braves team who is in
their worst form maybe ever, right like ever, When I
say ever, I mean the guys like the Akunas, like
this crew of Atlanta Braves guys has not played collectively
this poorly ever since they've all been there. Like, I don't.
I don't think they're gonna do much against Perez and
then Carrasco. Yeah, he's pitched well, but he can get
bombed on a moment's notice. So Marlins will be my
parlay leg minus. What do we got?
Speaker 2: It's up again, I've got it minus one twenty perfect.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I get So there's some people in
the chat, and I agree with the people in the
chat where it's like, listen, you're gonna have to pump
the brakes. I'm playing the Marlins day to day as
a favorite. I totally agree with with that sort of
thought process. I do think the books have started to
come around on this Marlins team, and now suddenly you're
gonna have to lay a little juice to back them.
Long gone are the days where we can just get
the Marlins in this same spot plus one point fifteen
plus one, ten plus five. But I still think today's
matchup on a four game card is a reasonably good bet.
So I'll take Marlin's go ahead. Brian.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's talk about the bullpen yesterday, and it's true
there are four guys in the bullpen. They're back four
guys through about I believe, excuse me, eighty eight pitches yesterday,
which is a lot to be concerned about, but none
of them had pitched the previous two days. But it's
still they're not as quite as fresh as what we
would like. They had three guys with the hold and
one guy to save yesterday. But I still like Miami.
I think that's a good bet and this Atlanta team.
I said it before the All Star Break when they
went into the All Star Break, this is a fade
for me. I think it continues here that it's a
big pitching mismatch. As much as I like the starter
as a personal level, yeah, I can't expect him to
pitch as well as what's going on in Miami right now.
Speaker 1: Can I make one more point quick about the bullpen
for Miami. I'm less concerned with usage for Miami because
they're all the same guy, Like their top reliever and
their seventh reliever are very sick.
Speaker 2: Like.
Speaker 1: This isn't a bullpen where it's like, oh, we've got
these like two studs and then it falls off considerably
at the end. It's a collection of guys that are
all like pretty good and that are not only are
they pretty good? They all seem to be improving, and
it's why they've had a top five bullpen for now,
like pretty much. If you look at the last two months,
last forty five days, Marlins are like way up there
in bullpen raiding, probably a top five bullpen. So they
just have done a tremendous job. And it's like they've
got this collection of guys that can all go out
thrown in your two, do it good, and then hand
the ball to the next guy to do the same thing.
And they're still in that like playing with nothing to lose, vein, right,
So it's like they don't it's like they don't get over.
They're not worried about the eighth or ninth inning. Now,
three weeks down the road, if they start to sniff
a wild card spot, that might change suddenly those eight
ninth innings might get bigger. But for now, I just
think they're, you know, they're just sort of riding the waves.
It's been fun to watch, Brian.
Speaker 2: What is the juice?
Speaker 3: Couldn't they? Could they conceivably the time clubbers?
Speaker 1: There's time for sure. It's gonna be tough catching those
good National League teams, but there is We still have
two months of ball left. There's plenty of time for
the Marlins to get them in. You'll get themselves in
a position to do so. Slick fix us not going
to the playoffs. Yeah, probably not, But that's that's not
that's less on then, and more on the fact that
the National League just has very, very good baseball teams
this year. If the Marlins were in the American League,
they be take they be, they be waltzing to the
playoffs wouldn't even be a problem. What do we have
for juice on that team total over TV? Did I
didn't write it down?
Speaker 2: It minus one nineteen over four and a half. My
under for Pittsburgh is minus one oh five Miami money
line minus one.
Speaker 1: All right, so we need to hit one of these
were last time we got us got sort of into
this range, we cashed a nice three teamer for like
six to one, So maybe that's today. This this parlay
is plus five fifty six for the three teamers. So
I'll read it off one more time. Tokyo, Brandon's going
a's team total over four and a half. If TV,
I'm gonna I'm gonna let you answer this question because
it's your play. If someone can't get the over four
and a half or the team total for the a's
would you rather than put the full game over in
or a's money line?
Speaker 3: Uh A's money line.
Speaker 1: Okay, because I know, I know there are people that
play on locals and they have a hard time parlaying
team totals. So you heard it right here. TV says,
if you can't get the team total in your parlay,
go with a's money line. But if you have the option,
definitely use the team total. Our parlay will be graded
off of a's total over four and a half. That's
Tokyo Brandon, Brian's gonna go with reds Pirates under seven,
and then I'm gonna use Marlin's money line. So one
more time, Tokyo Brandon a's team total over four and
a half, Brian Leonard under seven in the reds Pirates game,
and I'll go Marlin's money line plus five fifty six.
That is our three team or today, head on over
to the wager Talk site. We'll all have something up.
Mine might be in KBO. I don't know if I'll
get to the window with one of these MLB games,
but you got all our opinions because we went through
all four games. I'll be reposting this and you can
always go to the wager Talk YouTube channel to watch
the replay if you're coming in late. Some good betting
advice that wasn't specific to the games. We ended up
going over the hour today with four games, but that's
because the betting conversation was so good. We appreciate all
of you guys, nine hundred people in here watching live
on a four day, four game Thursday MLB Slate. We
very much appreciate that. If you if you have a minute,
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us a like and subscribe to the page. It greatly
helps us out and have a great day. Maybe enjoy
some NFL preseason tonight, a couple of games to get
the juices flowing for football. But yeah, we'll be back
nine am tomorrow morning to close out the week. Have
a great day, everyone,