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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, welcome to another episode of My Zon. I'm
Speaker 2: Andy Moulbn, Jason.
Speaker 3: Lyons, I'm Dimitri Cootacos.
Speaker 2: And most importantly, we have as a guest Mick Molroy,
Speaker 2: who is becoming a regular And in case you haven't
Speaker 2: been fortunate enough to catch macbefore, he's a very important
Speaker 2: man in a lot of sphares, although he would be
Speaker 2: the last one to claim that title, you know. Probably
Speaker 2: most notably, he's a former marine, so we always have
Speaker 2: to have a higher ratio of Marines on this Marines
Speaker 2: versus Greeks, but also former senior CIA operator and operative.
Speaker 2: Sorry I did and pronounce that very well, Dasty for
Speaker 2: the Middle East. That's an Assistant Secretary of Defense, and
Speaker 2: you know which time I was fortunate enough to work
Speaker 2: with him, very much below him with him and then
Speaker 2: since then has run the Lowbo Instudent. If you're interested
Speaker 2: in the Lobo Instudent, and who could not be. If
Speaker 2: you're interested in world events, if you care about things
Speaker 2: like war and prevention of war and child soldiering, and
Speaker 2: you know all the peripheral tragedy that comes along with geopolitics,
Speaker 2: then Mick and his team are your guys. And I'm
Speaker 2: a very junior member of the Lobo Institute. I'm still
Speaker 2: waiting for my T shirt and my laminated card, but
Speaker 2: nevertheless very proud to be part of the organization. So
Speaker 2: enough enough intro make over to you, and you know,
Speaker 2: first and foremost, let's talk about the astounding news emerging
Speaker 2: this morning about about Mossad outsourcing, assassination attempts or successful
Speaker 2: assassination efforts.
Speaker 4: That's right. Great to be with you guys from bullyag Many, Greece,
Speaker 4: where I'm waiting for a flight ended, which apparently bone dull.
Speaker 4: I will get there. I will get there next week.
Speaker 2: I think I love it when you see that flash
Speaker 2: on the on the airline screen, you know, not technical difficulty,
Speaker 2: but it delays, according you know, to the armageddon. I mean,
Speaker 2: it kind of kills any complaints, doesn't it.
Speaker 4: It does? It does. Some people go the other directions
Speaker 4: and some people want to go you know who does,
Speaker 4: but it's we're still working on our humanitary emissions. But yeah,
Speaker 4: as a former co wort Bubba, I gotta I gotta,
Speaker 4: you know, tip of the hat at least when it
Speaker 4: comes to the ability of Israeli intelligence to do what
Speaker 4: they did, right. You know, there's some discussion, you know,
Speaker 4: if you're talking about the LA politically. You know, I
Speaker 4: think most US media outlets reporting that it was a
Speaker 4: planted bomb, right, and now we've got IRGC saying that
Speaker 4: there was some kind of close proximity guided munition of
Speaker 4: some sort. So I don't know which one it was.
Speaker 4: But obviously to be able to get into your most
Speaker 4: senior adversaries adversaries as a country, and which is obviously
Speaker 4: very controlled, you know, being top down autocracy, and do
Speaker 4: something like this is pretty impressive. Now. I'm sure the
Speaker 4: United States would have wish they didn't do it because
Speaker 4: they would like to see a ceasefire negotiation succeed. And
Speaker 4: this individual, of course was the main negotiator for the
Speaker 4: moss But from Israel's perspective, we've got to look at
Speaker 4: all it was one of two individuals that were primarily
Speaker 4: responsible for the attacks on our first seven. Yeah, so,
Speaker 4: but this is certainly two progued.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Nick, you know, you touched on something. I think
Speaker 2: it's a good point to come back to, perhaps later
Speaker 2: in the conversation about strategically, this may not be in
Speaker 2: anyone's best interests except for a political party and power
Speaker 2: and one man in power in Israel, you know, potentially
Speaker 2: I'm not saying that is the case, but strategically that
Speaker 2: could be the case. What is But when we're talking
Speaker 2: about the kind of a skillful mechanics of this hit
Speaker 2: and make you you you know, you know more than
Speaker 2: any most people on this, But there's a there's an opportunity,
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a cost once you once you execute, right,
Speaker 2: I mean, they had the according to the Daily Telegraph
Speaker 2: this morning, who you know supposedly has half a dozen
Speaker 2: sources within the IRGC. Uh, this was prepared like three
Speaker 2: or four months ago. You know, three bombs were placed
Speaker 2: in three separate rooms the IRGC. You know, the guys,
Speaker 2: the informants are saying that that it was an inside
Speaker 2: job in that Mossad hired agents from Answer al Mardi,
Speaker 2: which is the protection unit that the IRGC uses for
Speaker 2: domestic protection of the IPS. So it really is kind
Speaker 2: of you know, these guys are super screens for loyalty
Speaker 2: and everything else, as you can imagine, so it's an
Speaker 2: extraordinary you know, you're almost sense that maybe, I mean,
Speaker 2: if you want to be a conspiracy theorist, you've come
Speaker 2: up with some thing where Natanya who is in cohorts
Speaker 2: with Iranian administration here right, I mean, it's it's just bizarre.
Speaker 2: But anyway they executed. Now they can't do it again,
Speaker 2: you know, So question number one was this right target?
Speaker 2: You know whatever the ram oft We probably can answer
Speaker 2: that now. But number two, what's the immediate fallout? I mean,
Speaker 2: Gharni himself came out yesterday answered this was like a
Speaker 2: huge humiliation the outside. What what these informants are saying
Speaker 2: is that the IRGC's reflexive response was, oh, this was
Speaker 2: a missile and they claim to see a projectile outside
Speaker 2: the pane of glass whatever, whatever. But that was kind
Speaker 2: of an instant reflexive reaction to ship this was this
Speaker 2: is really really fucking embarrassing. How do we explain this?
Speaker 2: What do you what are your thoughts about that? I
Speaker 2: know we can't verify any of that stuff right now,
Speaker 2: but what do you kind of general thoughts about the
Speaker 2: latest news that's right?
Speaker 3: Anythme.
Speaker 4: I can't verify it because I don't know. It's it's
Speaker 4: just what I read on the media and people you know,
Speaker 4: like to reach out and tell me things. But essentially, think,
Speaker 4: if you look at this was done, it was an
Speaker 4: exceptional intelligence covert operation. No matter how you look at
Speaker 4: whether it's strategically smart or not, it was. It was
Speaker 4: tactically sound and to be the ability to recruit somebody
Speaker 4: that close and that screen, as you point out, is impressive,
Speaker 4: and then get get these certain explosive devices in place
Speaker 4: which could be detonated obviously remotely, once you realize that
Speaker 4: your target was there, right, and they must have had
Speaker 4: an idea that that Hynia and people like him stayed
Speaker 4: in these they said, it was like a veterans type
Speaker 4: almost like a boq or something like that. Something. But
Speaker 4: they put VIPs that were you know, associated probably with
Speaker 4: the proxy courses right in this area, and so they
Speaker 4: must have they had to figure that out. They had
Speaker 4: to get it in, and then I had to figure
Speaker 4: out when he was there, right, because it doesn't do
Speaker 4: any good just to clack it off and you know,
Speaker 4: the wrong people are in there. So, you know, from
Speaker 4: a technical and tactical COVID operations perspective, it was. It
Speaker 4: was pretty phenomenal. Now I know people saying, well, they
Speaker 4: did it, you know, with the intent to embarrass potentially right.
Speaker 4: It was the presidential inauguration. He was invited as a
Speaker 4: guest of you know, the Supreme Leader. It does look
Speaker 4: like it was almost intended to just really just like
Speaker 4: stick it to him right in the eye. And maybe
Speaker 4: it was. It very well could be. I'm sure they
Speaker 4: could say, well, we only had the opportunity then because
Speaker 4: that's when he was there. But either way, I think,
Speaker 4: you know, the United States came out, the US government
Speaker 4: Secretary of Lincoln specifically and said a few things, we
Speaker 4: have nothing to do with it, which may or may
Speaker 4: not be the case. Obviously, the US Intelligence Service, I
Speaker 4: am Massade, works very closer together. But since I don't
Speaker 4: think we want to see this happen, I doubt that
Speaker 4: we had anything to do with it. So I think
Speaker 4: that's probably a fair point. I don't know, but it's
Speaker 4: it's unusual that they would not have given us a
Speaker 4: heads up, and and that is because, of course, we
Speaker 4: have a lot of military assets in Iraq Syria that
Speaker 4: are very vulnerable, uh, and we would like to know
Speaker 4: when you know, our key partner countries do things that
Speaker 4: would significantly antagonize Iran, which would then uh, potentially, So
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's accard. I wouldn't question Victoria
Speaker 4: point honestly. So that appears to be the case. And
Speaker 4: we did not know, and we didn't participate, but we
Speaker 4: are going to be dealing with the consequences, right, I mean,
Speaker 4: we can get into their sending you know, the USS
Speaker 4: Abraham Lincoln over there right now, they're sending another squadron
Speaker 4: of your aircraft. You know, they already have the loss
Speaker 4: group out there, multiple destroyers. It's just everything that I'm
Speaker 4: talking to folks in the Pentagon as they're sending everything
Speaker 4: they got because they expect that Iran will not only
Speaker 4: have to respond, but they all have to respond more
Speaker 4: significantly than they did even on in April. What April thirteenth.
Speaker 4: I think it was because that was I mean, it
Speaker 4: was a big show, had no effect. They you know,
Speaker 4: they're going to have to do something at least as substantial,
Speaker 4: but I think from their perspective with way more of
Speaker 4: an impact or just going to be viewed as like
Speaker 4: a fireworks show. And of course HESBLA does too, not
Speaker 4: just because they essentially work. We're rod but you know flawed.
Speaker 4: Shuoker just got killed in Beirut, right, So that's that's
Speaker 4: so it's a double wind. I think we're going to
Speaker 4: see something protect potentially from multiple different directions to try
Speaker 4: to overwhelm their defense system, which is not going to
Speaker 4: be good obviously for resonall, but obviously the United States
Speaker 4: could be pulled.
Speaker 2: Into Yeah, I'm sorry, go ahead, God.
Speaker 5: So I'm just thinking any idea on who steps up
Speaker 5: next to fill that vacuum after that assassination.
Speaker 4: Jason, you're talking about for Camas and yep at HESBELA,
Speaker 4: I don't, I mean, they always have. That's a good
Speaker 4: question because this does go to the point that some
Speaker 4: would make is every time you assassinate a leader, they
Speaker 4: get replaced. So and I'm all again, I spent a
Speaker 4: lot of time, you know, as you might imagine, chasing
Speaker 4: people down. They did bad things in the United States,
Speaker 4: and I was always you know, proud of, you know,
Speaker 4: whatever participation I had with you know, taking them out
Speaker 4: the battle space, so to speak. But you know, and
Speaker 4: I ask, and you can ask a lot of the
Speaker 4: guys in the last twenty years, they always get replaced.
Speaker 4: It's like that's what they call it, mole in the grass, right,
Speaker 4: So at first it seems like it's gonna have a
Speaker 4: huge impact, you know, Okay, well, nobody can replace you know,
Speaker 4: Ismael Heinea, He's been around forever. He was at one
Speaker 4: time the commander ahead of Hamas and Gaza. You can
Speaker 4: say all these things and flawed Shokler went all the
Speaker 4: way back to the Bay Route bombing. I mean, he
Speaker 4: was wanted for that US But so I'm one hundred
Speaker 4: especially that guy seeing him gone. But you do have
Speaker 4: to calculate that in with Okay, what's the strategic impacts?
Speaker 4: What is this going to do? Uh? And you know
Speaker 4: it's it's not about that guy. That guy deserves to
Speaker 4: be gone a long time ago. But you have to
Speaker 4: calculate that and the fact that he will be replaced, right,
Speaker 4: I'd be replaced. Everybody replaced all the way up to
Speaker 4: you know, in our system with the commander chief. So
Speaker 4: who's going to replace him? I would imagine that they
Speaker 4: would keep that somewhat hidden, so we didn't just they
Speaker 4: don't just put a giant, you know, bullseye on his head.
Speaker 4: But I would say that that is that is something
Speaker 4: that's you know, we're going to be trying to find out.
Speaker 4: But they always replace them, so it is worth thinking
Speaker 4: them out. But it's always important to realize that it's
Speaker 4: not going to change the trajectory of the group as
Speaker 4: much as we would like, and you have to deal
Speaker 4: with the consequences, which in this case, the cease fire
Speaker 4: negotiations at least for the nearest maybe meetings are completely.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I always with what you just said in mind, Nick,
Speaker 2: I always think up Zikali. You know, a q I
Speaker 2: m ol catering I Rock killed more people after the
Speaker 2: Zikawi's death than before. And yet you know, you remember
Speaker 2: when when we got the news of Zaccai's death. I
Speaker 2: don't know about you, But I mean we're all high
Speaker 2: fiving think hey, they must come to an end, you
Speaker 2: know what I mean. But no, it was nearer the beginning.
Speaker 2: I think we we love the culture, personality, and so
Speaker 2: we think that removed personalities from the picture will affect
Speaker 2: the you know, the overall situation. But our enemies are
Speaker 2: more pragmatic. Perhaps the one exception I can think of
Speaker 2: is an Israela. You know, I think if he disappeared,
Speaker 2: that would have a cataclystmic effect on his boller. But
Speaker 2: that it's going back to how clever it was, the
Speaker 2: fact that it has caused so much internal questioning and dissension.
Speaker 2: You know, there's an internal blame game going on now
Speaker 2: in the ILGC. You know, you've got a former Iranian
Speaker 2: intelligence minister coming out and saying, hey, I warned you
Speaker 2: guys this would happen, or the officials of the Islamic
Speaker 2: Republic should be worried about their lives. You know, this
Speaker 2: is exactly what Israel wants, of course, you know, for
Speaker 2: everyone to be looking over their shoulder and blaming each other.
Speaker 4: Yes, the perfect covert operation, which of course has a
Speaker 4: Clandesquine side to it. So you don't you don't know
Speaker 4: who did it, right, if it's obviously it's covert in
Speaker 4: the sense that they're not going to claim it, and
Speaker 4: they do it, uh you know, under certain cover in tradecraft.
Speaker 4: But the perfect one is and they obviously know this
Speaker 4: is visual is when they don't really know what happened, right,
Speaker 4: that's and that didn't happen to this case. But if
Speaker 4: you can if you can do that and make you
Speaker 4: think it was an inside job and you know, without
Speaker 4: giving details, it was one uh specific mission I was
Speaker 4: involved with where the group came from the sea. Right,
Speaker 4: this is a small thing, but it really helped. And
Speaker 4: it wasn't even then intent Remember those shoes used to
Speaker 4: wear running shoes got real popular. They were actually like feet,
Speaker 4: they just they just kind of stuck around your feet
Speaker 4: and everybody started running in them, and then dudes were
Speaker 4: falling out because like it destroys your feet and stuff.
Speaker 4: But anyway, they got real popular. So the people that
Speaker 4: came the you know, the the group that was involved
Speaker 4: in this came in and when they all had those
Speaker 4: things on, so when they took off their you know,
Speaker 4: here they were running around and oathen vice boots. Again
Speaker 4: not intending to try to be sneaky. But the side
Speaker 4: effect was when they left the group that went the
Speaker 4: group that we were going against who had guys leave
Speaker 4: and get killed and all this stuff, they thought it
Speaker 4: was an inside job because they're like, this is an Americans.
Speaker 4: There's they're barefoot. The Americas don't run around barefoot on
Speaker 4: the beach and up into the because they could see
Speaker 4: the right and it was really it really caused consternation
Speaker 4: where they started killing each other and saying it couldn't
Speaker 4: have been the Americans. I mean, they always you know,
Speaker 4: they have all the gear. They're not going to do this,
Speaker 4: so I know it's kind of a funny story. But
Speaker 4: the point being is anything you could do in a
Speaker 4: cover operation so that you you don't want to take credit, right,
Speaker 4: you don't go into that business to be able to
Speaker 4: take credit, and you know, pound your chest anything you
Speaker 4: can do as a country that you're trying to carry
Speaker 4: out these things were really confused whether it's an inside
Speaker 4: job and all that is better, way better, that's the
Speaker 4: best way to do it.
Speaker 2: A really interesting point too, which is, you know, a
Speaker 2: very insidious thought for the Iranians is that that in
Speaker 2: order for this protection unit the ansil Maori Protection Unit
Speaker 2: to have been infiltrated must have involved someone higher in
Speaker 2: the organization. And you know, there's a quote in the
Speaker 2: Daily Telegraph today again from an anonymous senior Oranian official,
Speaker 2: and he says, it's still a question for everyone how
Speaker 2: it happened. I can't make sense of it. There must
Speaker 2: be something higher, right, so leaving you know, does he
Speaker 2: need someone higher involved or something? But it would seem
Speaker 2: to me that seems you know, again, I realized we're speculating,
Speaker 2: but it is extraordinary because if you look back, you know,
Speaker 2: I was looking up on this protection unit and then
Speaker 2: they just laid down by the Supreme Council of National Security,
Speaker 2: and the Supreme Councilor of National Security essentially does a
Speaker 2: mission analysis on every mission, determines the number of designated
Speaker 2: bodyguards where they should be blah blah blah for each official.
Speaker 2: So you you know, again you wonder if there's so
Speaker 2: much attention from high up on higher up on the
Speaker 2: security of VIPs and yet and yet the organization being infiltrated.
Speaker 2: That's you know, that's I think that's an interesting point.
Speaker 2: Number two, What happened to these guys after they planted
Speaker 2: the explosives. Where the reports are from the Iranians that
Speaker 2: they escaped the country, Well, how did they do that?
Speaker 2: It's extraordinary, But it's an interesting point and make you
Speaker 2: you've dealt with this many times, is what are your
Speaker 2: obligations to your sources? Right in the past, when Mossad
Speaker 2: has recruited locals, they have been less than protective. In
Speaker 2: the aftermath they've you know that there's been some internal
Speaker 2: criticism about that. Hey's an intelligence organization. We have to
Speaker 2: value our sources and our accomplices. So this may be
Speaker 2: a sign that they've evolved. They haven't, you know. In
Speaker 2: order to to secure this kind of cooperation going ahead,
Speaker 2: they have to establish reputation of looking after their sources.
Speaker 2: Because you know, with all your background intelligence, what in
Speaker 2: any thoughts about that, I mean anything unusual or is
Speaker 2: that am I off the mark?
Speaker 4: Well, you're definitely not off the marketing, uh andy. When
Speaker 4: it comes to intelligence organizations, and these are good ones,
Speaker 4: your protection of sources is absolutely clinnacle to the success
Speaker 4: of your organization. So if your organization gets a reputation
Speaker 4: for uh loose loops, I mean, you an't want to
Speaker 4: work with period, I make it out there, right, so
Speaker 4: even now how much money you can provide able or
Speaker 4: or whether it's because it's not all money, right, some
Speaker 4: some people work for us, A lot of people actually
Speaker 4: based on philosophical and ideological reasons, right, They are in
Speaker 4: a despot type of country, and they want to see
Speaker 4: a change that is that does actually happen a lot.
Speaker 4: But either way, whether you're motivated by money or ideology,
Speaker 4: if you're not going to be around that long because
Speaker 4: either sloppy trade graph or you know, the need to
Speaker 4: get out there. And usually the boisterousness doesn't come obviously
Speaker 4: from intelligence professions. It comes from political folks that want
Speaker 4: to take credit for it, right. I mean, we've seen
Speaker 4: that happen before, where even it was great and then
Speaker 4: all of a sudden it's like officials that know stuff
Speaker 4: want to say stuff, why are you talking about that?
Speaker 4: I mean, how about we just say the guy's dead.
Speaker 4: We just you know, just go with that, you know.
Speaker 4: I Mean it's usually I don't think done for vindictive reasons.
Speaker 4: It's just not really understanding the consequences as as it's
Speaker 4: coming from a political entity and not necessarily the intelligence service.
Speaker 4: Intelligence service, you never talked they should just be willing
Speaker 4: to stay in the background. No parades, no, no uh
Speaker 4: public you know, you get my point. It's it's really
Speaker 4: not about that. It's about it's about uh, you know,
Speaker 4: just being proud of what you're you did and keeping
Speaker 4: it to yourself. You owe it to the individual and
Speaker 4: you owe it to the organization long term.
Speaker 6: Which is ultimately I have a question and the thought
Speaker 6: kind of like, obviously Mussan knew where this guy was going, right,
Speaker 6: he lived in Qatar. They're not going to do in
Speaker 6: a Qatar obviously because like Qatar is like Switzerland in
Speaker 6: the Middle East. So for Mussat to be able to
Speaker 6: penetrate essentially the IRGC Secret Service right that protects VIPs
Speaker 6: and for them to like burn that card, how deeply
Speaker 6: penetrated is the IRGC by Mussad or Western intelligence agencies
Speaker 6: for that to just like fuck it, you know, we
Speaker 6: you know, we've been planning this and will blow our cover.
Speaker 6: And that's that they have to be you know, extremely
Speaker 6: like infiltrated.
Speaker 4: And yeah, I think that's totally true. D I mean,
Speaker 4: it really does show that they had incredible access, placement
Speaker 4: and the ability to task right, and then they had
Speaker 4: to get we our exposive then right enough to do
Speaker 4: what they did. So and you know, again this is
Speaker 4: just what we see in the present US.
Speaker 2: I think one one really interesting aspect of the you know,
Speaker 2: as as this kind of fools together. Someone should write
Speaker 2: a book about it. Oh wait, I'm supposed to be
Speaker 2: doing that. But but you know, kind of the really
Speaker 2: as Mossat has emerged in the last few months, I mean,
Speaker 2: Mossad has, despite its reputation, as you know, like any organization,
Speaker 2: has gone up and down and has had some catastrophic
Speaker 2: failures as well as some astonishing success.
Speaker 3: October seventh was a catastrophic failure.
Speaker 2: But that was that was really Shinbet at least, you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, that's my that's a great point. But the
Speaker 2: contrast between the you know, lead up to and Shinbet's
Speaker 2: failures and it's as though, you know, the country is
Speaker 2: regaining its status as a is an intelligence organization, which
Speaker 2: was which was I mean, as an as an intelligence
Speaker 2: focused country, you know, and and very sophisticated in both
Speaker 2: technological and human and yet you had this enormous internal
Speaker 2: failure with Shinbet. But Masad is really uh, you know,
Speaker 2: regardless of whether we we think that the strategic outcome
Speaker 2: is going to be positive for Israel. Masad is certainly
Speaker 2: performing some extraordinary feats him, something that you know, I
Speaker 2: would say, even with a couple of agency guys here,
Speaker 2: that our organizations may learn from. Although we can't do
Speaker 2: this sort of stuff, I understand that.
Speaker 5: Indeed at it I'm sorry I think too. Going back
Speaker 5: to what you were just asking and saying, as far
Speaker 5: as the penetration, how deep it is, I think after
Speaker 5: this operation there's going to be a hard reset within.
Speaker 5: So I don't think they need to I'm not going
Speaker 5: to say they don't need to worry about it, but
Speaker 5: I think there's going to be a big purge.
Speaker 2: And so I think that once they get.
Speaker 5: The answers or while they're getting the answers that they
Speaker 5: want on how deep did this go, they're just going
Speaker 5: to get rid of everybody however that.
Speaker 2: Is, and start all the right.
Speaker 6: So that's what I'm saying, like, why do that if
Speaker 6: you can get this guy almost at any time outside
Speaker 6: of sending a message that like, we can get you
Speaker 6: anywhere anytime in the in the Blairhouse essentially where you're staying,
Speaker 6: and you know it's not you could do about it.
Speaker 6: The fallout, though, is what kind of annoys me. It's
Speaker 6: because like when Israel pops off and gets everybody upset,
Speaker 6: we have to move carrier groups, We have to bring
Speaker 6: in thirty, you know, fifty fighters to knock down missiles
Speaker 6: that are gonna be shooting at it, like they know.
Speaker 6: It's just I know, it's kind of frustrating as an
Speaker 6: American because like, I'm not exactly pro Israel on this
Speaker 6: specifically net Yao.
Speaker 3: I'm not a net Yao guy at.
Speaker 6: All, because I think he's doing this for political survival.
Speaker 3: It just goes so much more deep.
Speaker 6: And that's what I'm saying, as I'm not an intelligence guy,
Speaker 6: but I would think, like, if you have an adversary
Speaker 6: completely infiltrated, isn't it worth more in the long term
Speaker 6: rather than just burning that.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 5: I think someone in Israel, someone meaning some group of
Speaker 5: people sat down and thought about that and said that
Speaker 5: it was worth you know, the juice was worth the
Speaker 5: squeeze in this case because of just what you said. Okay, yeah,
Speaker 5: we're going to piss some people off with this, and
Speaker 5: maybe we're popping off a little early, but we're also
Speaker 5: going to get probably another character group out of this.
Speaker 5: So we're also going to get political support from many
Speaker 5: in the US in Western governments, So they were thinking
Speaker 5: that the juice was probably worth the squeeze in this case. Yeah,
Speaker 5: you know, and it might also cause pause in Hamas itself.
Speaker 2: Some people are probably saying, whoa WHOA hold on?
Speaker 5: I was supposed to go to Iran next month, you know,
Speaker 5: can you guys actually protect me?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 5: And also on the other side of that, there are
Speaker 5: someone Iran are probably saying, do we really want to
Speaker 5: bring these people here? If they're going to be we're
Speaker 5: going to get bombs dropped on us. It might get
Speaker 5: some of our people killed. So I think someone sat
Speaker 5: down and thought about all that internal strife that could
Speaker 5: be caused is worth the gain on the back end.
Speaker 5: And Mick, if I'm wrong, please let me know.
Speaker 4: I don't think either of you guys are wrong. I
Speaker 4: think this is all part of the discussion, right and
Speaker 4: the calculates going in here. So there's plenty of people,
Speaker 4: as you know, Prime Minister in Naho is not that popular,
Speaker 4: it is wrang right, There's plenty of people, including I
Speaker 4: think President Biden's even mentioned. Is I think he wants
Speaker 4: to extend the war because he realizes when the war's over,
Speaker 4: the far right part of his coalition is going to
Speaker 4: say we don't need you. Right, then he's got all
Speaker 4: sorts of legal issues he's got to go against. That's
Speaker 4: his political issues, right or wrong. That's what some people think.
Speaker 4: There's also a part of the IDF, even with its risk,
Speaker 4: that thinks this is inevitable, Like they think fighting at
Speaker 4: Hezmola is inevitable. Not that they want to, they've got
Speaker 4: enough on their on their shoulders, so to speak. But
Speaker 4: there's a lot of Israelis. It's like, look, we got
Speaker 4: what fifty thousand displaced Israelis sitting in hotels in Tel Aviv.
Speaker 4: They can't go back to their homes around the northern border, right,
Speaker 4: so they think it I don't think they want to
Speaker 4: see this war, but they think it's inevitable. So in
Speaker 4: some cases you could say why not just get this
Speaker 4: over winter? And then of course there's other factor which
Speaker 4: hasn't got a lot of talk. Is according to news reports,
Speaker 4: Aron's only like a week away from getting enough visile
Speaker 4: material so uranium and rich to a certain level where
Speaker 4: it can make a nuclear weapon. Right, So there's a
Speaker 4: lot of bad stuff that could be happening. And from
Speaker 4: the US perspective, you know, yes, there's obviously an issue
Speaker 4: between the current US administration and the current is early
Speaker 4: than this person. We are longtime security partners country to country,
Speaker 4: so we are going to defend them. We're not going
Speaker 4: to let them fail. So that's an issue they know, right,
Speaker 4: So if we're if we start thinking as they're thinking,
Speaker 4: they realize that this is inevitable and they're going to
Speaker 4: have to do something to mitigate a nuclear armed era.
Speaker 4: They know that we're going to be there. So again
Speaker 4: I think, I think all your ports are valid, and
Speaker 4: this is something we've got to consider because it's we've
Speaker 4: got to look at it from their perspective other whether
Speaker 4: it's Satan Yah, who's you know, from his political survival,
Speaker 4: or the country of Israel, including the security services in
Speaker 4: the idea thinking that a lot of this stuff is
Speaker 4: going to happen and they might as well get it
Speaker 4: over with.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's definitely a you know, it's definitely part of
Speaker 2: a plan intended to bring things to a head. You know,
Speaker 2: and you look down and look across the board, you've
Speaker 2: got this assassination of one of the chief negotiators, you know,
Speaker 2: after a period where Israelis have been you know, I'm
Speaker 2: just making a comment. I mean, the negotiations, frankly have
Speaker 2: been a huge humiliation for the Israelis, and seeing someone
Speaker 2: with the power of life and death of two hundred
Speaker 2: or so innocent people and kind of milking it out,
Speaker 2: that's the perception the Israelis have of this guy. So
Speaker 2: there was a revenge quote hint inn for sure, in
Speaker 2: a way to appeal to that very kind of basic instinct.
Speaker 2: But of course, you know, the families of the hostages
Speaker 2: are not happy because they see net cutting yet another
Speaker 2: kind of lifeline to getting you know, any survivors out
Speaker 2: of that. But at the same time, yeah, I'm sorry,
Speaker 2: go ahead.
Speaker 4: Oh, I was going to point out many they I mean,
Speaker 4: what are the aspects of the intelligence services? Has really
Speaker 4: come to lighten this? I mean it's always been there,
Speaker 4: There's always been this this kind of cloak room diplomacy. Right,
Speaker 4: So if there's if it's sensitive and you wouldn't really
Speaker 4: want your secretary of state out there meeting with people
Speaker 4: I come as, right, or any terrorist organization or unsavory
Speaker 4: characters oftentimes you use not just a CEI director that's
Speaker 4: actually unusual, but other people down the ranks right that
Speaker 4: do this sensitive diplomacy. And it's always been there, but
Speaker 4: this is really highlighted it. And in some ways, even
Speaker 4: though it does work pretty effectively, it hasn't worked that
Speaker 4: well here, not for lack of effort. But this is
Speaker 4: going to set that back because a lot of people
Speaker 4: are going to say, wait a minute. So the whole
Speaker 4: time they've been negotiating, it's been all the intelligence services.
Speaker 4: Then the other guy's negotiator gets swacked like I don't
Speaker 4: think it was I certainly don't think it was from
Speaker 4: our side. But people can step back and say this was,
Speaker 4: like this whole thing was right when you got the
Speaker 4: chief of Masad Massade looking across the table at the
Speaker 4: same time he's trying to negotiate at the same time,
Speaker 4: he knows what's going to happen in this whole right.
Speaker 2: So and now an interesting development, the head of Mossad,
Speaker 2: the shouinn't Bet and Mossade cheats have apparently landed in
Speaker 2: Egypt today for talks on hostage release. And so that's
Speaker 2: unusual when that previously net who had sent lower level
Speaker 2: guys from you know, from both organizations. But now you've
Speaker 2: got both cheats landing in Egypt, all right to to
Speaker 2: to continue negotiations, which suggests that I don't know what
Speaker 2: it suggests. I don't know, but it's yet another piece
Speaker 2: of the puzzle. Right, why would they do that? Why
Speaker 2: would they send them most important guys to Egypt to
Speaker 2: meet with uh? You know that the head Egyptian, the
Speaker 2: intelligence chief, a boss Kamal that of course you know
Speaker 2: they I wouldn't say that, friends, but they know him, wouldn't.
Speaker 2: Something's going on here.
Speaker 4: So there is a line of thought, and this could
Speaker 4: go straight to your point of bringing that up, that
Speaker 4: Hynia was the problem. He's obviously not under the director, right.
Speaker 4: I guess he was actually, but he didn't think so.
Speaker 4: Whereas the Hamas commanders in Gaza, when they got pressured,
Speaker 4: that's when they started saying, okay, maybe we don't need
Speaker 4: a permanency. Okay, you know, like they you could see
Speaker 4: the ship where at first it was a moss that
Speaker 4: was the problem, and then you know, then Israel started
Speaker 4: moving the goal post. There is a belief that Haynia
Speaker 4: was what kept holding up an actual ceasefire. Ultimately he's
Speaker 4: sitting in guitar Doha at you know, a parent's five
Speaker 4: star hotel. He had under the same pressure. At least
Speaker 4: he didn't think he was. So that could be to
Speaker 4: your if they are down there and this actually starts
Speaker 4: moving forward. But the people that thought that, I think
Speaker 4: would have some validity.
Speaker 2: Very interesting, a very interesting take, right. You know, despite
Speaker 2: all of our talk about, hey, this was intended to
Speaker 2: push this through a crescendo, maybe it wasn't. Maybe it
Speaker 2: was intended to aid negotiations. And if that is the
Speaker 2: government Israeli government's claim, then sending two of the two
Speaker 2: intelligence cheats to Egypt and the immediate optim off of
Speaker 2: the assassination does kind of you know, it's it's meant
Speaker 2: at least I think, to get that perception. It's because
Speaker 2: they could have kept that visit absolutely secret. I mean,
Speaker 2: they could have they know how to do that. So
Speaker 2: the fact that the press knows about that visit again,
Speaker 2: it's all part of this. I mean, it's interesting. Jack
Speaker 2: will not appreciate this as an investigative journalist, but a
Speaker 2: lot of times investigative journalists are following in trace of
Speaker 2: government breadcrumbs, right, we're not here in the States. I'm
Speaker 2: not sure we're that's smart, just too New York times
Speaker 2: with too much of the democracy. I mean, democracy is messy.
Speaker 2: We can't make all these things happen, and thank goodness
Speaker 2: we can't. But it's really yeah, it's another layer. Listen, Mick.
Speaker 2: I know we've only got you for another twenty one
Speaker 2: minutes and ten seconds. Not that I'm you know, not
Speaker 2: that I'm counting every second with you with such value,
Speaker 2: but I of course I do. So what do you
Speaker 2: want to talk about? What else do you have going
Speaker 2: on in your life?
Speaker 4: So? I mean we've been working on the Humanitarian Court
Speaker 4: or with Humanity Serenade in the Gaza, and obviously the
Speaker 4: decision was made to pull the jay Loots.
Speaker 2: Yeah, can you can you talk a little bit about that? Well,
Speaker 2: I mean because we all know, we all but I
Speaker 2: for one, kind of grew up since you know, the
Speaker 2: twenty ten twenty eleven in the planning community, thinking logisticians
Speaker 2: had it, you know, I mean, this jay Loots thing
Speaker 2: was awesome, and doesn't you know it seems to so
Speaker 2: there may be some issues with the constant.
Speaker 4: Yes, yes, and you know what I could start with
Speaker 4: it was an incredible effort on the part of a
Speaker 4: central command, particularly the army conformer.
Speaker 2: It was.
Speaker 4: I mean you could just look at the manual and
Speaker 4: see that it was going to be a challenge. The
Speaker 4: jail lots does work in relatively calm seas or a lake,
Speaker 4: and that's not what they got right. The Eastern Mediterranean
Speaker 4: this time of year was not those things. And most
Speaker 4: of the time it was above the capacity to I
Speaker 4: was standing. So the criticism to use it, I think,
Speaker 4: you know, it's fair one way or the other. But
Speaker 4: I can say it brought in a lot of food
Speaker 4: even the short time it was up that it brought
Speaker 4: in a lot of food into Gaza that was desperately
Speaker 4: needed by the people of Gaza. They wouldn't have gotten
Speaker 4: And at the end of the day, and we were
Speaker 4: proud to be our small part to support it. Uh.
Speaker 4: It was actually got to more people without being looted
Speaker 4: than other parts of.
Speaker 2: So fill a critically need at a critical time.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I would like to see it continue right
Speaker 4: our you know, Sam moundy uh and and I need
Speaker 4: to group. And it came up with a plan, I
Speaker 4: kind of we came up at the plan that didn't
Speaker 4: require the jay Louts, right, So we'd like to see
Speaker 4: it go back to that where it would be a
Speaker 4: h a port facility, temporary that needs to meet the
Speaker 4: standards of the Israelies that could withstand every sea state
Speaker 4: in the eastern Metaterrane, right, so we'd have to be moved. Yeah,
Speaker 4: we'd be temporary there. We'd like to see that, but
Speaker 4: that's those that's not up to us. Obviously are already
Speaker 4: be happening. But we built we the US government, well,
Speaker 4: we built the beach landing zone, the aide delivery zone,
Speaker 4: it's already there, right, the Cypriot government and everybody set
Speaker 4: up the system in Cyprus that's already there, you know,
Speaker 4: with the screeners and all that stuff that had to
Speaker 4: go into play, and now there's no so hopefully, you know,
Speaker 4: the government, the powers that be decided it needs to happen.
Speaker 4: It's not us, by needs to be somebody else. That
Speaker 4: doesn't mean they shouldn't have the ground quarters or up.
Speaker 4: They should be opened up. But let's face it, the
Speaker 4: desperate problem there needs to have every available needs to
Speaker 4: get food, clean water, medicine in there. And eventually, when
Speaker 4: this war is over, how are they going to do
Speaker 4: reconstruction when eighty percent of the buildings have been significantly
Speaker 4: damaged to the point of living without you know, access
Speaker 4: to the seat. Right, you can see how many problems
Speaker 4: there are just bringing forty to fifty trucks in a day,
Speaker 4: how are you going to move that many, that much
Speaker 4: rubble out and that much stuck in. So this is
Speaker 4: a much bigger issue that I think once this war
Speaker 4: is over, the international community the rest. But we're still
Speaker 4: working there. We're doing what we can inside, working with
Speaker 4: the un working with the NGOs that we've been supporting
Speaker 4: the entire time, and obviously look for you.
Speaker 2: Know, think about this and and all you know, great
Speaker 2: points make it. It's very it's it's very easy of
Speaker 2: course to you know, jump on as as almost every
Speaker 2: newspaper did and attack, not attack, but just kind of
Speaker 2: ridicule the j Lot's effort. But you know, if a
Speaker 2: historical reminder, remember the Mulberry Harbor was smashed, was smashed
Speaker 2: up in the immediate optim off of the you know,
Speaker 2: the D Day landings by not a higher c state
Speaker 2: than expected. It is something they thought they prepared for,
Speaker 2: but it was decimated and they put it together again
Speaker 2: and learn from it. And built up an enormously robust
Speaker 2: logist over the short logistics system based on the lessons. So,
Speaker 2: you know, we forget apparentlying kind of the I suppose
Speaker 2: the jingoistic drum here that you know, we one of
Speaker 2: our greatest strengths as Americans is our ability to innovate, Yeah,
Speaker 2: and learn from and learn from what has happened, and
Speaker 2: that is that's really the question going ahead isn't so
Speaker 2: much what happened, why is what do we do now?
Speaker 2: How do we develop it? How do we learn from
Speaker 2: the lessons? And you're right very quickly. I mean you
Speaker 2: mentioned fifty trucks. I mean you think about it. One
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty trucks was kind of sustainment level throughout
Speaker 2: this crisis. But as you point out, when you get
Speaker 2: to reconstruction, it's going to be many times there. We've
Speaker 2: got absolutely neat eat over the shoan, the ability to
Speaker 2: deliver a material over the shoan. Otherwise it's just not
Speaker 2: going to happen.
Speaker 6: So for the permanent peer, what's what's holding it back?
Speaker 6: Like what's the rub really money? Or is it like
Speaker 6: political will?
Speaker 4: Like there's funding actually as funding, it's it's approval by
Speaker 4: is and it's it's the agreement by the United Nations
Speaker 4: and the NGOs to keep using the system. So part
Speaker 4: of it's like a chicken and egg thing. To be fair,
Speaker 4: It's like, well, why am I going to send my
Speaker 4: stuff to Cypress if there's no maritime corner? And then
Speaker 4: israelis like, well there's no maritime corner. What am I approving?
Speaker 4: So and obviously a little bit of the advisory group
Speaker 4: like US can't make this happen. Well, happened to talk
Speaker 4: to anybody, but it's going to have to take, you know,
Speaker 4: leadership to you and leadership in the United States and
Speaker 4: an EU right because the Almafia plan coming out of
Speaker 4: Cyprus is really a new you thing. It's a Cypriot
Speaker 4: lead thing, but it's the the youthing. We're just going
Speaker 4: to keep doing what we're doing inside and helping as
Speaker 4: many people as you can until hopefully that gets resolved
Speaker 4: and we can we can start right now, and the
Speaker 4: funding is already there so we can. It's a it's
Speaker 4: a temporary facility and the I mean, I don't want
Speaker 4: to get too dirty on you, but you like, oh okay, cool.
Speaker 4: We dredge out a slot that the barge can come
Speaker 4: straight into the beach and it's a nest so it's secured.
Speaker 4: And then there's a sea break, if you will, a
Speaker 4: temporary one that depletes the wave issues right. And then
Speaker 4: there's a platform with a crane on it that can
Speaker 4: take containers off and put it straight on the trucks
Speaker 4: so you avoid the okay, put on a floating pier,
Speaker 4: and then it has to be put on smaller craft
Speaker 4: to bring it into the causeway and then down the
Speaker 4: causeway to the tried in pier and then it's on
Speaker 4: that was the jails. Ours is just barge comes straight
Speaker 4: to the beach. And you know, the group that we've
Speaker 4: been working with, the engineering group, the shippers and the logistics,
Speaker 4: they've already done these. So it isn't a we can
Speaker 4: they can. We could show that it worked, So it's
Speaker 4: not it's thought, yeah, it's not theoretical.
Speaker 5: Why didn't they do that?
Speaker 3: Why didn't they do that instead of the jaylots?
Speaker 4: Uh? I don't know. We came up to the this
Speaker 4: plan that's referred to as the blue Beach plan basically
Speaker 4: because the first beach we looked at was a blue
Speaker 4: beach and then we had to move it. But we
Speaker 4: couldn't chase a name because everybody, you know this movie,
Speaker 4: but you're.
Speaker 2: Gonna have a blue beach. It's gonna be a blue beach,
Speaker 2: the red beach.
Speaker 4: Wise, Yeah, in December of twenty three, so this is
Speaker 4: way before. But you know, that is what it is.
Speaker 4: What I would say to those that, I mean, I
Speaker 4: get the criticism of the Jaylots, but the christm of
Speaker 4: the United States is you know, everybody else is talking about,
Speaker 4: you know, what a christ as it is? What do
Speaker 4: you do something about it? YadA, YadA, YadA, And we
Speaker 4: heard it all and all of a sudden it was
Speaker 4: only the US. It pushed up here from Virginia to guy. So,
Speaker 4: you know, I get the criticism, but it's like, hey man,
Speaker 4: you know it's it's not the critic accounts, it's you know,
Speaker 4: as Steady would say, it's Savana the arena. At least
Speaker 4: these these women were in the arena and a lot
Speaker 4: of other people were just holding you know, big fancy
Speaker 4: conferences about what should be done.
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I mean I couldn't. I couldn't agree more
Speaker 2: with that sentiment. Make it's that that's kind of a
Speaker 2: sub motto of our podcast here, right, If we could
Speaker 2: figure out how to make it in one sentence, you know,
Speaker 2: without sending so apliched And also, you know, the fact is,
Speaker 2: and this is a reminder, I think for the US
Speaker 2: and as we come to an election and regardless of
Speaker 2: which party wins, and we start looking at you know,
Speaker 2: there's a very uring thought that is that that has
Speaker 2: has taken hold perhaps both sides of the aisle, that
Speaker 2: we can kind of retreat into ourselves and stop, you know,
Speaker 2: helping the world and just focus on our Appalachian problems
Speaker 2: or whatever it may be. But but the fact is
Speaker 2: that we depend on you know, we depend for our standing,
Speaker 2: on our worster and the things that we want to
Speaker 2: do because we have that obligation. And it's the aftermath
Speaker 2: is seven October, the phone didn't ring in Moscow or
Speaker 2: in Beijing. It was everyone looked to the United States
Speaker 2: for leadership and was highly critical when you know, the
Speaker 2: perceptions were that the United States had dropped the ball.
Speaker 2: But but no other country was there, and no other
Speaker 2: country was willing to do this. And and so I'm
Speaker 2: you know, I'm with you, Meg. I mean, I'm a
Speaker 2: I'm a logical patriot in that sense.
Speaker 4: I just just want to give you guys the heads up.
Speaker 4: They usually call me.
Speaker 3: Now Stephanopolis to wait bro.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah that's right.
Speaker 3: Yeah. One last yeah, one last thing I want to
Speaker 3: ask about.
Speaker 6: This is a little bit out of leftfield, is uh
Speaker 6: the whole deal with KSAM that was now rescinded. I
Speaker 6: was going to I mean, that's crazy. I'm a New Yorker, right,
Speaker 6: like the guy playing nine to eleven. I'm going to
Speaker 6: be a little crass with this. The last twenty years
Speaker 6: we've smoked a lot of people. Let's just let him
Speaker 6: out and put a couple of slugs in the back
Speaker 6: of his head and let him go. No deals, no,
Speaker 6: no lawyers.
Speaker 2: Let's just do we have an editor of policy.
Speaker 6: That's my editor. That's my opinion on that. I couldn't
Speaker 6: believe it when I saw it. It was it was wild.
Speaker 4: I know, thank you. I think you know answers are
Speaker 4: I don't know that. You know, lawyers are working this deal,
Speaker 4: working this deal. Apparently weren't in formative shade of command right,
Speaker 4: because there's like zero percent chance they're going to say,
Speaker 4: you can top a flea. You killed three thousand Americans
Speaker 4: and we're not. We're going to take the death penalty
Speaker 4: off on the table, right. I imagine that thing went
Speaker 4: onto his desk, dreaded, thrown back out of his door.
Speaker 4: But the fact that it didn't even know hit the media.
Speaker 2: It hit the media before. I mean it just again,
Speaker 2: it just kind of looks a little bit like a.
Speaker 4: Yes, that was I don't think that. Maybe maybe the
Speaker 4: lawyers tried to leak it so they because they thought
Speaker 4: maybe they put them in a position where they couldn't. Yeah,
Speaker 4: I mean, Lard was.
Speaker 2: Like, nope, maybe we can get General Austin on eyes on.
Speaker 3: All right, we could try make help us out.
Speaker 2: Talk about this and Afghanistan and other We.
Speaker 5: Went under surgery and didn't tell anybody. Why can't have
Speaker 5: on here?
Speaker 3: Right? Yeah?
Speaker 2: You know, I know what I know in his personal assistant,
Speaker 2: one of his personal assistants, and he swears he wrote
Speaker 2: it sticky put it on back that store. But it's
Speaker 2: just you know how it is.
Speaker 4: Hey man, what forty five almost fifty years of service?
Speaker 2: You gotta right, that's right? You know, Honestly, I thought
Speaker 2: that was a huge deal about nothing, you know, I mean,
Speaker 2: we're all about not the person but continuity. Anyway, All right,
Speaker 2: make over to you for wrap up comments before you
Speaker 2: go on to your lesser station. What is it ABC?
Speaker 4: Yes, yeah, yeah, Alys, Okay, what.
Speaker 2: You're gonna take a You're gonna take a giant jump
Speaker 2: down in circulation. So you had this massive audience before
Speaker 2: it's yours.
Speaker 4: Well, it's great talking to you guys again. As always,
Speaker 4: I'm Pard here and heading into Israel as soon as
Speaker 4: they let the planes fly right, and then we'll be
Speaker 4: there for a while doing what we do. Look walk
Speaker 4: forward to talking to you guys again. Thanks, hopefully on
Speaker 4: the other side of armageddon.
Speaker 3: Right, Thanks Megan. Guys.
Speaker 6: Don't forget to check out don't forget to check out
Speaker 6: the Lobo Institute.
Speaker 3: The links will be in the description.
Speaker 6: Andy Milburn, his substack, his book, everything will be in
Speaker 6: the description. Patreon dot com, slash Teamhouse Keep our Lights on.
Speaker 6: Mick is not cheap, so it's not it's worth every Yeah,
Speaker 6: thank you guys,