WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.439 --> 00:00:03.720 Yes, you are connected, and thank you for coming by. 2 00:00:03.839 --> 00:00:06.839 Welcome to the Big Radio Show. It is Wednesday, the 3 00:00:06.960 --> 00:00:11.599 twenty eighth day of May twenty twenty five. My name 4 00:00:11.640 --> 00:00:17.920 is Tom Sullivan. So got some tariff. Keep kicking the 5 00:00:17.960 --> 00:00:21.559 tariffs around. You know, we'll see what We'll see how 6 00:00:21.600 --> 00:00:24.839 it works. I mean a lot of people I've told 7 00:00:24.839 --> 00:00:28.199 you historically it's not a good thing. That's why I 8 00:00:28.399 --> 00:00:34.000 in general am opposed to them. But could it could 9 00:00:34.000 --> 00:00:36.880 be much to do about nothing. I mean, it goes back. 10 00:00:36.920 --> 00:00:39.439 Did you Oh, by the way, did you hear. 11 00:00:42.920 --> 00:00:43.359 The name? 12 00:00:43.439 --> 00:00:48.520 It's it's actually become a trade on the trading desk 13 00:00:49.039 --> 00:00:53.759 here in New York, and it's the taco trade. And 14 00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:58.200 the taco trade is at Wall Street. First of all, 15 00:00:58.200 --> 00:01:02.320 they love acronyms. They love love acronyms, and so now 16 00:01:02.479 --> 00:01:05.959 they've got this thing called the taco trade. I told you, 17 00:01:06.640 --> 00:01:10.760 without using the term, that it is so predictable. The 18 00:01:10.760 --> 00:01:13.560 president announces that he's going to slap some big, huge 19 00:01:13.599 --> 00:01:18.079 tiff on some country, and uh wham, obamo, down goes 20 00:01:18.159 --> 00:01:18.640 the market. 21 00:01:19.560 --> 00:01:20.760 I mean liberation. 22 00:01:21.000 --> 00:01:23.599 What we lose two thousand points for a couple days 23 00:01:23.599 --> 00:01:27.079 in a row, is that what it was I know 24 00:01:27.159 --> 00:01:30.200 we had the I know we had the kazoo player 25 00:01:30.280 --> 00:01:33.560 for two or three days in any case, So down 26 00:01:33.560 --> 00:01:37.239 it goes. And then later on the President comes out 27 00:01:37.280 --> 00:01:42.319 and says, well, maybe we'll delay that, or we'll put 28 00:01:42.359 --> 00:01:47.400 that on a naughty day delay. Then he went after 29 00:01:47.480 --> 00:01:50.560 the European Union on Friday. We finished the show on 30 00:01:50.680 --> 00:01:54.760 Friday with oh my gosh, he's going after the European 31 00:01:54.840 --> 00:01:57.040 Union with fifty percent tariffs. 32 00:01:59.799 --> 00:02:01.599 We didn't even get the weekend over. 33 00:02:01.719 --> 00:02:08.240 By Monday night, Memorial Day, he's on the tarmac at 34 00:02:08.360 --> 00:02:14.080 Morristown Airport flying back to DC and he said, yeah, 35 00:02:14.199 --> 00:02:16.159 actually I had a good call with the head of 36 00:02:16.199 --> 00:02:18.719 the EU and so we're going to put that on 37 00:02:18.759 --> 00:02:21.680 a delay until July ninth. And I knew what would happen. 38 00:02:22.039 --> 00:02:25.639 Sure enough, Mark, it came roaring back. So it goes 39 00:02:25.759 --> 00:02:29.719 down on the announcement and comes back on the pause 40 00:02:31.199 --> 00:02:33.680 and they, I mean, it's to the point where I 41 00:02:33.719 --> 00:02:36.719 told you last week, I said, my gosh, you could 42 00:02:36.759 --> 00:02:39.360 trade this. I just wait, wait for the stocks to 43 00:02:39.400 --> 00:02:43.120 be pummeled on the announcement of tariffs, buy a bunch 44 00:02:43.159 --> 00:02:46.280 of the ones that got beat up the worst, and 45 00:02:46.319 --> 00:02:48.759 then just wait a few days and the minute he 46 00:02:48.800 --> 00:02:51.599 announces okay, maybe we're not going to be doing that 47 00:02:51.680 --> 00:02:54.120 right now, the stock will come roaring back and then 48 00:02:54.120 --> 00:02:56.360 you sell it and you make a nice profit. Well 49 00:02:56.479 --> 00:02:59.599 I wasn't the only one thinking about that, because they 50 00:02:59.639 --> 00:03:03.599 call it the taco trade. Taco you know, like in 51 00:03:03.879 --> 00:03:11.199 the food taco. What it stands for is ta ceo. 52 00:03:12.039 --> 00:03:18.280 Trump always chickens out. It is literally a thing. I'm 53 00:03:18.280 --> 00:03:22.360 not making this up. A reporter for CNBC was in 54 00:03:22.439 --> 00:03:27.400 the Oval office with the other reporters today. Janine Piro 55 00:03:27.599 --> 00:03:30.479 is being sworn in as the US attorney for DC, 56 00:03:31.360 --> 00:03:33.840 and so he had the media there and the CNBC 57 00:03:34.000 --> 00:03:39.479 report said, sir, do you know about the taco trade? 58 00:03:40.840 --> 00:03:45.319 And it stands for Trump always chickens out? And she 59 00:03:46.280 --> 00:03:54.360 asked them and he said, it's called negotiations. That's what 60 00:03:54.479 --> 00:03:57.759 it is. That's the way I negotiate. And I'm not 61 00:03:57.960 --> 00:04:01.039 going to give away the way I negotiate, so you 62 00:04:01.240 --> 00:04:04.919 believe what you want. But it is, it's become a 63 00:04:04.960 --> 00:04:09.280 thing on Wall Street for to buy on the on 64 00:04:09.360 --> 00:04:12.599 the the announcement of a tariff and to sell. 65 00:04:12.400 --> 00:04:17.600 When he when he. 66 00:04:15.319 --> 00:04:21.879 Backs off, pauses whatever it is. So yeah, he says, 67 00:04:21.959 --> 00:04:26.600 it's called negotiations. And I'm not going to argue with him, 68 00:04:27.279 --> 00:04:31.560 but he that's his style, that's what he does. My 69 00:04:31.720 --> 00:04:37.199 only point is it causes havoc chaos in the economy. 70 00:04:37.439 --> 00:04:43.480 So the reporter said, uh, you know, this is what 71 00:04:43.519 --> 00:04:49.519 it stands for. And the President said, after all, after 72 00:04:49.680 --> 00:04:51.800 I did what I did, they said, we'll meet you 73 00:04:51.920 --> 00:04:56.600 any time you want. You call that chickening out. It's 74 00:04:56.639 --> 00:05:00.800 called negotiation. And then he said the question was nasty. 75 00:05:02.160 --> 00:05:05.480 Well it may have been, but it's it's the real thing. 76 00:05:05.560 --> 00:05:09.800 It's going on, call up your broker and ask for 77 00:05:10.800 --> 00:05:14.600 can we do some taco trades? See if they know 78 00:05:15.480 --> 00:05:20.040 that's a New York thing. Well else we got here. Oh, 79 00:05:20.040 --> 00:05:27.519 as far as the companies, these companies say that they're 80 00:05:27.519 --> 00:05:31.639 going to raise prices because of the tariffs. Walmart they 81 00:05:31.680 --> 00:05:34.600 announced that they will increase their prices because the tariffs 82 00:05:34.639 --> 00:05:38.600 are too high, particularly because of the fact that they 83 00:05:38.639 --> 00:05:41.759 get a lot of their products from China. So they've 84 00:05:41.800 --> 00:05:49.560 got a thirty tariff on most Chinese goods. There's a 85 00:05:49.600 --> 00:05:54.600 ten baseline teriff for most imports. Then on top of 86 00:05:54.639 --> 00:05:57.879 that you've got steel and aluminum face far higher rates, 87 00:05:58.319 --> 00:06:02.120 so Walmart said they would increase their prices because the 88 00:06:02.199 --> 00:06:07.959 tariffs are too high, particularly the products from China. Doug McMillan, 89 00:06:07.959 --> 00:06:10.360 who's the CEO of Walmart, said, we will do our 90 00:06:10.360 --> 00:06:12.959 best to keep our prices as low as possible, but 91 00:06:13.079 --> 00:06:15.639 given the magnitude of the tariffs, even at the reduced 92 00:06:15.720 --> 00:06:19.199 levels announced this week, we are not able to absorb 93 00:06:19.439 --> 00:06:24.639 all the pressure given the reality of the narrow retail margins. 94 00:06:25.120 --> 00:06:28.600 In other words, they don't make a huge profit. They 95 00:06:28.680 --> 00:06:33.560 got a very narrow profit line. So he says changes 96 00:06:34.000 --> 00:06:37.399 prices at Walmart will take effect by the end of 97 00:06:37.480 --> 00:06:43.160 May that would be Friday, and will increase much more 98 00:06:43.759 --> 00:06:51.360 in June. According to the chief financial officer over there, Mattel. 99 00:06:52.959 --> 00:06:54.959 Said it would raise prices due to tariff. 100 00:06:55.000 --> 00:06:59.720 Chief executives told investors under the current scenarios we are considering, 101 00:07:00.439 --> 00:07:03.639 he expects forty to fifty percent of its products to 102 00:07:03.720 --> 00:07:09.040 remain priced at twenty dollars or less. He advocated for 103 00:07:09.160 --> 00:07:16.319 zero tariffs on toys and games around the world. President 104 00:07:16.319 --> 00:07:18.720 Trump threatened Mattel, saying he would put a one hundred 105 00:07:18.720 --> 00:07:21.600 percent tariff on his toys and he won't sell one 106 00:07:21.680 --> 00:07:24.120 toy in the United States and that's the biggest market. 107 00:07:24.519 --> 00:07:26.680 So I don't know he's threatening. Nobody hasn't done anything 108 00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:35.199 about it. Best Buy. They warned that vendors across our 109 00:07:35.399 --> 00:07:38.600 entire assortment will pass along the levels some level of 110 00:07:38.680 --> 00:07:44.519 tariff cost to retailers, making price increases for consumers highly likely. 111 00:07:46.079 --> 00:07:50.720 Some electronic components and devices are temporarily exempt, but that 112 00:07:50.800 --> 00:07:57.480 won't last forever. Nintendo they have a new product out 113 00:07:57.519 --> 00:08:01.920 called the switch To, and like everything the Tender does, 114 00:08:01.959 --> 00:08:04.680 there's a waiting list and you've got to order a 115 00:08:04.759 --> 00:08:09.560 pre order online thing, and they have delayed allowing people 116 00:08:09.600 --> 00:08:13.439 to sign up for the pre order because of concerns. 117 00:08:13.480 --> 00:08:15.519 They don't know what they're going to have to cost. 118 00:08:15.839 --> 00:08:21.319 What the price will be Company laters at pricing won't 119 00:08:21.439 --> 00:08:26.279 change from the initial four hundred and fifty dollars, but 120 00:08:26.399 --> 00:08:33.360 the accessories will experience price adjustments, so whatever the accessories 121 00:08:33.360 --> 00:08:36.679 are for a switch To will cost more. They're going 122 00:08:36.720 --> 00:08:38.799 to try to keep the price at four to fifty 123 00:08:38.879 --> 00:08:44.399 four hundred and fifty dollars for a Nintendo. 124 00:08:42.960 --> 00:08:46.639 Shine and t Move. Chinese retailers. 125 00:08:47.600 --> 00:08:53.080 They were exempt because they always sold cheap products. It 126 00:08:53.159 --> 00:08:57.480 was called the deminimus exemption for anything worth less than 127 00:08:57.480 --> 00:09:00.519 eight hundred dollars. There was no tariff that has been 128 00:09:00.519 --> 00:09:06.399 done away with, So who's this TEAMU came out and said, 129 00:09:06.440 --> 00:09:09.200 due to recent changes in global trade rules and tariffs, 130 00:09:09.600 --> 00:09:12.200 our operating expenses have gone up. To keep offering the 131 00:09:12.200 --> 00:09:16.519 products you love without compromising on quality, we will be 132 00:09:16.559 --> 00:09:20.679 making price adjustments starting April twenty fifth. So that's already 133 00:09:20.720 --> 00:09:26.519 a month old. Ford in Subaru hit with twenty five 134 00:09:26.559 --> 00:09:32.360 percent tariffs. Most autoparts face a similar duty. Ford's chief 135 00:09:32.399 --> 00:09:35.840 financial officers that it expects to raise prices by as 136 00:09:35.919 --> 00:09:39.360 much as one and a half percent in the second 137 00:09:39.399 --> 00:09:41.200 half of this year due to tariffs. 138 00:09:43.200 --> 00:09:43.399 Huh. 139 00:09:43.679 --> 00:09:48.759 Subru, which is a Japanese car maker, if he didn't 140 00:09:48.759 --> 00:09:52.159 already know, said it will increase US prices to offset 141 00:09:52.240 --> 00:09:55.960 increase costs. Did not specify how much the price will 142 00:09:56.000 --> 00:10:01.399 go up. Procter and Gamble, Stanley and and Black and Stanley, 143 00:10:01.399 --> 00:10:06.639 Black and Decker. They own brands, believe it or not, 144 00:10:06.799 --> 00:10:08.240 Procter and Gamble. 145 00:10:10.759 --> 00:10:10.960 Man. 146 00:10:11.000 --> 00:10:14.600 I've owned Procter and Gamble forever. They own every they own, Pamps, 147 00:10:15.159 --> 00:10:21.200 Tied Charman. They said they're considering raising prices in some 148 00:10:21.840 --> 00:10:27.679 categories that there will likely be price increases because of tariffs. 149 00:10:29.159 --> 00:10:31.960 So this is going to depends upon what you're shopping for. 150 00:10:32.960 --> 00:10:37.080 Adidas said higher costs are likely for products in the 151 00:10:37.200 --> 00:10:42.320 US given the uncertainty around the negotiations between the US 152 00:10:42.320 --> 00:10:47.039 and differing exporting countries. We do not know what the 153 00:10:47.080 --> 00:10:50.840 final tariffs will be, according to Adidas. So there's some 154 00:10:50.960 --> 00:10:55.600 of the companies that are raising their prices and there's 155 00:10:55.679 --> 00:10:58.000 others out To dig the list out for you and 156 00:10:58.080 --> 00:11:00.919 add that to the show here today, but it is 157 00:11:01.320 --> 00:11:04.879 I think you're going to find some stores and some 158 00:11:04.960 --> 00:11:08.639 product lines you're going to notice are going up and 159 00:11:08.759 --> 00:11:12.159 others are not. So it may change the way that 160 00:11:12.240 --> 00:11:16.320 you go about your shopping. And trust me, if you 161 00:11:16.360 --> 00:11:21.240 start buying somebody else's product but not Company A, you 162 00:11:21.320 --> 00:11:24.080 buy Company B, Company A is going to pay attention 163 00:11:24.159 --> 00:11:28.039 to that, and they will if they can change their prices. 164 00:11:31.080 --> 00:11:39.399 So that's what's going on with tariffs. We've got still 165 00:11:39.440 --> 00:11:43.600 want to find about the Democrats. Looking for the Liberal 166 00:11:45.759 --> 00:11:55.200 Liberal podcast guy Joe Rogan. He was a liberal, he 167 00:11:55.480 --> 00:11:59.639 was a Bernie Sanders supporter. They lost him and the 168 00:11:59.679 --> 00:12:02.799 Democra after trying to figure out why So it does 169 00:12:02.879 --> 00:12:05.440 remind me of Air America and all that. What they tried, 170 00:12:05.679 --> 00:12:08.600 they tried, it wasn't that long ago, and it did 171 00:12:08.639 --> 00:12:12.799 not work. They think they got it this time. Phone 172 00:12:12.879 --> 00:12:18.200 number here eight five five two nine five sixty six hundred. 173 00:12:18.679 --> 00:12:21.639 You can find the phone numbers and the links to everything, 174 00:12:21.720 --> 00:12:26.480 including my podcast, by just going to my website, which 175 00:12:26.559 --> 00:12:27.600 is simply my name. 176 00:12:27.639 --> 00:12:32.240 It's Tom Sullivan dot com. We'll be right back. Hey, Hi, Tom, 177 00:12:32.440 --> 00:12:36.919 listen almost twenty years and have never once called her emails? Well, 178 00:12:37.919 --> 00:12:40.879 what took you so long? You're with Tom Sullivan. 179 00:12:41.879 --> 00:12:45.080 So we get back to Ukraine and Russia, and Russia 180 00:12:45.159 --> 00:12:49.840 obviously is Trump's getting a lot of heat about that too, 181 00:12:49.919 --> 00:12:52.799 going you're you're the last man on earth to believe 182 00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:57.639 Vladimir Putin. And so they asked them today again in 183 00:12:57.759 --> 00:13:01.000 the Oval office. They said, so, when are you going 184 00:13:01.039 --> 00:13:04.120 to know if Putin is going to be wanting to 185 00:13:04.120 --> 00:13:07.720 sit down and in this war? And he said in 186 00:13:07.799 --> 00:13:11.720 two weeks. In two weeks, I will know, because the 187 00:13:11.840 --> 00:13:16.039 question is is that, why aren't you putting like horrible, 188 00:13:16.240 --> 00:13:19.200 terrible sanctions? And now you know how I feel about sanctions. 189 00:13:19.200 --> 00:13:22.519 I don't think they work. People violate them all the time, 190 00:13:23.360 --> 00:13:27.200 but you could put something. At least you could try 191 00:13:27.679 --> 00:13:29.879 to do more than we're doing now, which is next 192 00:13:29.919 --> 00:13:33.679 to nothing. Russia's having a great time. They're not being 193 00:13:34.120 --> 00:13:37.840 held back by our sanctions in any way, shape or form. 194 00:13:38.840 --> 00:13:42.720 I remember when Biden put them on after the Ukraine 195 00:13:42.799 --> 00:13:46.879 War started, and they were a joke then. So there's 196 00:13:46.919 --> 00:13:50.799 plenty of room for Donald Trump to lay some severe 197 00:13:50.960 --> 00:13:54.039 sanctions on and see if they work. And if they don't, 198 00:13:54.080 --> 00:13:57.039 lay some, make them as severe as you possibly can 199 00:13:57.480 --> 00:13:58.279 right out of the gate. 200 00:13:58.279 --> 00:13:59.320 Don't play that game. 201 00:14:00.840 --> 00:14:05.720 So we've got He says that it'll be two weeks 202 00:14:05.759 --> 00:14:09.000 and he will know if Vladimir Putin is serious or not, 203 00:14:09.039 --> 00:14:12.840 because he's been talking about Putin. He said, Putin's crazy, 204 00:14:13.639 --> 00:14:18.080 and the Russians are writing back, well, we love Donald Trump. 205 00:14:18.120 --> 00:14:20.639 We think he's a wonderful, you know, praising him and 206 00:14:20.679 --> 00:14:25.639 doing all that. But we think that he's emotionally overloaded. 207 00:14:26.440 --> 00:14:31.039 So they're calling him emotionally overloaded. He's calling Putin crazy. 208 00:14:31.360 --> 00:14:34.080 He told the reporters in the Oval office today. In 209 00:14:34.200 --> 00:14:38.399 two weeks, I will know whether Putin is going to 210 00:14:38.440 --> 00:14:41.159 sit down and at the peace table and come up 211 00:14:41.159 --> 00:14:46.919 with the end of this war. Russian meantimes, they said, oh, 212 00:14:46.960 --> 00:14:51.159 why don't we have talks next week? And they're there. 213 00:14:51.200 --> 00:14:54.879 They really are. They're not that good at it, because 214 00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:58.480 it's very obvious what they're doing. They're they're stalling. They're 215 00:14:58.480 --> 00:15:01.960 doing everything they can to stall. The meantime, they're ramping 216 00:15:02.080 --> 00:15:07.480 up their attacks on TV and all of Ukraine. I 217 00:15:07.519 --> 00:15:11.679 mean they are bombarding those places. They're trying to get 218 00:15:11.720 --> 00:15:15.240 as much as they can right now. I don't think 219 00:15:15.440 --> 00:15:19.320 from what the way you observe what's going on, Russia 220 00:15:19.360 --> 00:15:21.519 certainly doesn't want to stop. They think they have the 221 00:15:21.600 --> 00:15:27.799 upper hand. And now Germany got involved again in the 222 00:15:27.879 --> 00:15:31.639 last twenty four hours and they said, all right, fine, 223 00:15:32.320 --> 00:15:34.080 nobody else is going to do this, We're going to 224 00:15:34.120 --> 00:15:37.159 step up. So they're going to be working with Ukraine 225 00:15:37.440 --> 00:15:44.000 on missiles and all kinds of military hardware. Germany wants 226 00:15:44.039 --> 00:15:47.720 to ramp things up, but Germany also has done a 227 00:15:47.759 --> 00:15:49.000 lot of business with Russia. 228 00:15:49.679 --> 00:15:51.480 So I mean it's. 229 00:15:53.519 --> 00:15:56.519 Putin wants NATO to say they will never ever ever 230 00:15:56.679 --> 00:16:00.519 allow Ukraine in and I'm going so fun I do 231 00:16:00.559 --> 00:16:03.960 it just sign the I don't think they have any 232 00:16:04.000 --> 00:16:04.919 business in NATO. 233 00:16:05.000 --> 00:16:06.399 But that's my two cents. 234 00:16:07.919 --> 00:16:11.639 Brett McGirk, national security guy under a bunch of administrations, 235 00:16:12.679 --> 00:16:18.120 says the sanctions look like they're getting bipartisan support. 236 00:16:18.399 --> 00:16:20.399 I think what we'll likely to see is back to 237 00:16:20.519 --> 00:16:22.840 Russia's maximalis sayings because they do not want to cease fire. 238 00:16:23.039 --> 00:16:25.120 I spoke with you the morning before that Trump call, 239 00:16:25.159 --> 00:16:27.600 and we said we will know after this call. Is 240 00:16:27.639 --> 00:16:29.720 this all diplomacy, Is this all just motion or is 241 00:16:29.720 --> 00:16:32.840 there actually movement towards the goal of a ceasefire? And 242 00:16:32.879 --> 00:16:35.639 I think we have the answer. There's movement backwards because 243 00:16:35.720 --> 00:16:39.240 days after that call, Russia launched the largest aerial attacks 244 00:16:39.279 --> 00:16:43.080 against Ukraine since the war started, three hundred missiles and 245 00:16:43.159 --> 00:16:46.120 drones two nights in a row, mostly Iranian drones. Also 246 00:16:46.840 --> 00:16:49.600 dovetail here with Iranian diplomacy, kind of a wave of 247 00:16:49.600 --> 00:16:52.440 the future, no pun intended. These massive drone and missile 248 00:16:52.440 --> 00:16:56.480 strikes very reminds me of the attacks against Israel that 249 00:16:57.039 --> 00:17:00.320 US military helped stop. So look, bottom line, I want 250 00:17:00.320 --> 00:17:03.080 to cease fire. Okay, I think this diplomacy is hitting 251 00:17:03.080 --> 00:17:05.119 a bit of a dead end. So President Trump has 252 00:17:05.119 --> 00:17:07.160 two choices. He can back off as he kind of 253 00:17:07.200 --> 00:17:09.720 suggested after that call, which I think is exactly what 254 00:17:09.759 --> 00:17:12.279 Putin wants. Or he can stand up and support Ukraine 255 00:17:12.319 --> 00:17:14.200 a little. But there there's an option here that's interesting 256 00:17:14.359 --> 00:17:16.079 is in the center right now there is a bill 257 00:17:16.240 --> 00:17:19.079 by Senator Graham and Blumenthal with eighty two co sponsors. 258 00:17:19.119 --> 00:17:23.400 When does that ever happens, like bipartisan basically imposing the 259 00:17:23.440 --> 00:17:26.160 sanctions that Trump is threatened. So President Trump can go 260 00:17:26.240 --> 00:17:27.920 back to Putin or Steeve Wick coughing, go back to 261 00:17:27.920 --> 00:17:29.480 the Russian and say, look, you know more at a 262 00:17:29.519 --> 00:17:33.799 sorrow than angrily given your actions no movement towards the ceasefire. 263 00:17:34.000 --> 00:17:36.000 These sanctions are coming, so we really have to get 264 00:17:36.039 --> 00:17:38.240 something moving here. The second thing, though, Kate, is the 265 00:17:38.279 --> 00:17:41.480 military supplies for Ukraine. They're starting to run out this summer. 266 00:17:42.039 --> 00:17:45.920 Trump has not authorized any more military is basically ammunition 267 00:17:46.039 --> 00:17:48.680 stuff Ukraine needs to defend itself, and I think that 268 00:17:48.720 --> 00:17:51.359 should also be turned back on. So long as Putin 269 00:17:51.440 --> 00:17:54.200 is showing no indications of getting to a ceasefire. 270 00:17:54.640 --> 00:17:57.599 Yeah, some are worried that we're going to get into 271 00:17:58.079 --> 00:18:00.000 a big problem with Russia. 272 00:18:00.079 --> 00:18:02.440 Believe that it actually wants to. 273 00:18:03.079 --> 00:18:04.839 I can't tell you that but I'll let you know 274 00:18:04.920 --> 00:18:07.160 in about two weeks. Within two weeks, we're going to 275 00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:10.839 find out very soon, we're going to find out whether 276 00:18:10.920 --> 00:18:13.960 or not he's tapping us along or not. And if 277 00:18:13.960 --> 00:18:16.839 he is, we'll respond a little bit differently. I can 278 00:18:16.920 --> 00:18:21.839 say this. I can say this that I'm very disappointed 279 00:18:21.839 --> 00:18:25.799 at what happened a couple of nights now where people 280 00:18:25.839 --> 00:18:28.400 were killed in the middle of what you would call 281 00:18:28.440 --> 00:18:29.240 a negotiation. 282 00:18:29.400 --> 00:18:30.799 I'm very disappointed by that. 283 00:18:31.519 --> 00:18:34.839 Yeah, so he's he what does what does? What's you 284 00:18:34.920 --> 00:18:37.519 going to do? What is Donald Trump going to do? 285 00:18:37.640 --> 00:18:41.279 This is the anti war president, and yet he's getting 286 00:18:41.319 --> 00:18:45.240 pushed by Putin And there's a lot of stories about 287 00:18:45.960 --> 00:18:50.119 is this going to be World War three? Because it's 288 00:18:50.200 --> 00:18:59.000 ramping up between us and them? I what one more 289 00:18:59.039 --> 00:19:03.359 from Well, let's get Arett mcgerkin here again, talking about 290 00:19:03.359 --> 00:19:05.359 the fact that Trump knows he has to maintain a 291 00:19:05.440 --> 00:19:06.559 relationship with Putin. 292 00:19:06.880 --> 00:19:09.920 When you're negotiating, even with a counterparty who's an adversary, 293 00:19:09.960 --> 00:19:12.240 you have to have a bit of a rapport and relationship. 294 00:19:12.279 --> 00:19:14.799 I think that's something Trump says, It's something I think 295 00:19:14.799 --> 00:19:17.559 Steve Wicoff understands. But you also have to have some leverage. 296 00:19:17.559 --> 00:19:20.319 You know, diplomacy is not all just arguments at the table. 297 00:19:20.680 --> 00:19:23.519 It is actually interests and leverage. And that's where the 298 00:19:23.519 --> 00:19:25.920 Senate bill is really interesting. I think if the White 299 00:19:25.960 --> 00:19:28.000 House was seen to be working with the Senate towards 300 00:19:28.039 --> 00:19:30.599 imposing those sanctions, it might it might mix things up 301 00:19:30.599 --> 00:19:31.240 a little bit here. 302 00:19:31.559 --> 00:19:33.319 Yeah, so, Eiler, what do you how far do you 303 00:19:33.319 --> 00:19:36.359 think Donald Trump will go? At the very least, He's 304 00:19:36.359 --> 00:19:39.839 got to lay some sanctions down if Putin doesn't come 305 00:19:39.880 --> 00:19:41.480 to the table, and I doubt that he's going to 306 00:19:41.559 --> 00:19:46.359 come to the table and actually agree to anything. Dan Hoffman, 307 00:19:46.480 --> 00:19:54.519 former station chief for the CIA in Moscow, said war 308 00:19:54.640 --> 00:19:57.480 might not end until Putin is no longer the head 309 00:19:57.480 --> 00:19:58.119 of Russia. 310 00:19:58.319 --> 00:20:00.480 I think it's important not only to see the world 311 00:20:00.559 --> 00:20:03.759 through the twisted KGB eyes of Vladimir Putin, but also 312 00:20:03.839 --> 00:20:06.720 to see ourselves through Putin eyes, because Putin is a 313 00:20:06.920 --> 00:20:10.279 KGB guy who's sizing up the president and his administration. 314 00:20:10.720 --> 00:20:13.319 Putin knows that President Trump promised to end the war 315 00:20:13.359 --> 00:20:15.400 within a day when he was on the campaign trail. 316 00:20:16.039 --> 00:20:18.240 He knows that the United States would like to expand 317 00:20:18.240 --> 00:20:21.160 our commercial relationship with Russia and he's certainly well aware 318 00:20:21.160 --> 00:20:25.680 of the contentious relationship between President Trump and President Selenski. 319 00:20:26.359 --> 00:20:28.799 Putin probably thinks he has some leverage right now to 320 00:20:28.880 --> 00:20:32.039 carry on this war. The question, the penultimate question that 321 00:20:32.119 --> 00:20:34.640 I think President Trump might want to be asking Director 322 00:20:34.680 --> 00:20:39.079 of CIA Radcliffe, is would Putin even be interested ever 323 00:20:39.960 --> 00:20:42.960 in stopping the war? This is Putin's war. He's spilled 324 00:20:43.480 --> 00:20:46.599 massive amounts of blood and treasure to topple the government 325 00:20:46.640 --> 00:20:49.599 of Ukraine, and so far he's failed. I'm not so 326 00:20:49.720 --> 00:20:52.200 sure that the war is going to end until Putin 327 00:20:52.279 --> 00:20:54.160 is no longer in the Kremlin. I think that's the 328 00:20:54.240 --> 00:20:57.640 question we need to be asking. And then a follow up, 329 00:20:57.759 --> 00:21:00.799 what can we do to test? So we may not 330 00:21:00.920 --> 00:21:04.440 know the answer. We haven't really used all the leverage 331 00:21:04.440 --> 00:21:07.000 we have. We've got secondary sanctions warmed up in the 332 00:21:07.000 --> 00:21:10.720 bullpen thanks to Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrats who have 333 00:21:10.759 --> 00:21:15.119 supported that proposal as well. And then we've got arms 334 00:21:15.160 --> 00:21:19.599 that we can provide Ukraine, patriot air defense and offensive munition. 335 00:21:19.680 --> 00:21:21.160 So there's a lot more that we can do to 336 00:21:21.240 --> 00:21:23.480 test that hypothesis. 337 00:21:23.880 --> 00:21:27.839 Yeah, and Donald Trump really has him. Joe Biden was 338 00:21:27.880 --> 00:21:29.759 the one who held them back. And said, you can't 339 00:21:30.359 --> 00:21:33.400 use our weapons for anything outside of you can't shoot 340 00:21:33.440 --> 00:21:39.000 them into Russia. The German leader today said, not only 341 00:21:39.000 --> 00:21:41.480 are we going to work with the Ukraine, We're gonna 342 00:21:41.599 --> 00:21:44.519 work with you on provider to use more missiles, but 343 00:21:44.559 --> 00:21:47.119 we're also not going to hold back on you can 344 00:21:47.279 --> 00:21:50.720 use our German made ar towery and everything else anywhere 345 00:21:50.759 --> 00:21:53.799 you want. You can fire it right into Moscow. We 346 00:21:53.839 --> 00:21:59.279 don't have a problem with it. So the military aid 347 00:21:59.720 --> 00:22:03.039 Dan Hoffman thinks is pretty darn important. 348 00:22:03.519 --> 00:22:05.799 You know, you're getting to putin a little bit when 349 00:22:05.839 --> 00:22:09.359 you hear the nuclear rhetorical brainkmanship. When the Biden administration 350 00:22:09.519 --> 00:22:14.279 was talking about giving Ukraine the weapons they needed when 351 00:22:14.319 --> 00:22:17.960 they needed them, that's when Putin's stalking horse, Dmitri Medvedev, 352 00:22:18.039 --> 00:22:22.319 the Deputy National Security Advisor, was threatening nuclear war and 353 00:22:22.359 --> 00:22:24.640 that really got to Joe Biden, and I think it 354 00:22:25.079 --> 00:22:29.119 really induced the Biden administration not to give Ukraine Javelin 355 00:22:29.160 --> 00:22:32.160 anti tank weapons and aircraft and other things that Ukraine 356 00:22:32.200 --> 00:22:35.519 needed when they needed it. But look, Putin's strategic objective 357 00:22:35.519 --> 00:22:37.799 has never changed. He wants to topple the government of 358 00:22:37.920 --> 00:22:40.799 Ukraine and install a puppet regime what we need to 359 00:22:40.799 --> 00:22:43.480 do is make it clear that's just not possible. And 360 00:22:43.519 --> 00:22:45.240 where the rubber is going to meet the road is 361 00:22:45.240 --> 00:22:48.559 whether Putin will ever accept that. And I don't know 362 00:22:48.599 --> 00:22:50.720 the answer to that question, Bill, and I don't know 363 00:22:50.759 --> 00:22:53.920 whether we can know until we really take serious action 364 00:22:54.000 --> 00:22:57.359 against Russia in the form of economic pressure that we 365 00:22:57.440 --> 00:23:00.839 haven't taken so far, as well as military support Ukraine. 366 00:23:00.839 --> 00:23:03.839 Now President Selenski's in Germany right now and the Germans 367 00:23:03.880 --> 00:23:07.759 are talking about giving Ukraine the Taurus long range ballistic missile. 368 00:23:07.799 --> 00:23:10.559 That would be a good thing for Ukraine to have 369 00:23:10.680 --> 00:23:11.480 in their arsenal. 370 00:23:13.759 --> 00:23:18.119 So Donald Trump, I don't want any wars. A guy 371 00:23:18.400 --> 00:23:24.599 is now faced with what to do. Major Generals James 372 00:23:24.640 --> 00:23:29.400 Spider Marx said Putin his whole thing is he doesn't 373 00:23:29.400 --> 00:23:31.200 want NATO to be anywhere near him. 374 00:23:31.680 --> 00:23:32.880 Clearly Putin wants that. 375 00:23:32.920 --> 00:23:35.240 I mean, he has stated all along he's looking for 376 00:23:35.319 --> 00:23:38.799 some type of a protection from a near abroad. He 377 00:23:38.880 --> 00:23:42.240 wants a buffer between NATO and Russia, and he essentially 378 00:23:42.319 --> 00:23:45.240 has it with Belarus. And his intent for the invasion 379 00:23:45.279 --> 00:23:47.920 three years ago was to achieve that with Ukraine. He 380 00:23:47.920 --> 00:23:50.000 failed in Ukraine, but he achieved a bit of it 381 00:23:50.079 --> 00:23:52.920 right from Karkiv all the way down to the Crimea. 382 00:23:53.799 --> 00:23:56.799 So I think in his mind this is essential and 383 00:23:56.960 --> 00:23:59.920 through his perspective, you got to put this in his perspective. 384 00:24:00.599 --> 00:24:03.599 NATO stated early after the collapse of the Soviet Union, 385 00:24:03.720 --> 00:24:06.000 the United States stated in a concert with NATO that 386 00:24:06.279 --> 00:24:09.559 we would not expand it inch eastward. Well, we did 387 00:24:09.599 --> 00:24:13.200 that over the course of the intervening years. We chalked 388 00:24:13.240 --> 00:24:15.400 up a number of NATO partners, and we went right 389 00:24:15.440 --> 00:24:18.920 up to his doorsteps. So from his perspective, we're lying bastards. 390 00:24:19.000 --> 00:24:20.400 We don't do what we say we're going to do. 391 00:24:21.160 --> 00:24:24.200 So we have to be able to understand this from 392 00:24:24.200 --> 00:24:27.839 his perspective. But to assume that he's going to embrace 393 00:24:28.000 --> 00:24:31.480 a written accord or a statement from anybody and be 394 00:24:31.519 --> 00:24:34.240 a signatory to that is foolish, A hard part. 395 00:24:35.000 --> 00:24:39.119 No, Yeah, so we told him that we would not 396 00:24:39.200 --> 00:24:42.680 do certain things that we did it. Anyway, back to 397 00:24:42.759 --> 00:24:45.480 General Mark, she talks about what a peace agreement could 398 00:24:45.480 --> 00:24:45.920 look like. 399 00:24:46.160 --> 00:24:50.119 President Trump especially called President Zelenski a jerk in the 400 00:24:50.119 --> 00:24:54.759 White House, and I know they noticed that Russia noticed that. 401 00:24:55.359 --> 00:24:58.319