Speaker 1: What is up, fella, Siko's I Am Dana Valley coming
at you with a very special and returning guest, mister
Keith Smith of I'm Gonna fuck this up again Keith
spot track.
Speaker 2: We got it this time.
Speaker 1: We also host the NBA Front Office Show with Trevor Lane.
They talk about a lot of stuff over there, so
go check them out. The links to Keith stuff will
be in the podcast YouTube description. As always, Keith, how
the heck are you doing?
Speaker 3: I'm doing well, man. It's a great time in the
basketball calendar. We got March Madness cranking up. NBA playoffs
are only a few weeks away. That means that the
off season is coming around, which is a big thing
in my world. So all good man, I'm super excited
for all of it's.
Speaker 1: Come I'm gonna ask you a lot about off season things,
but I want to ask you one sort of current
events stuff.
Speaker 2: How do you when we get into.
Speaker 1: Like sort of the post All Star break where we
see these breakouts or these trends, like I get hyped
up about some of them, like a Quentin Grimes or
is ichnology, But how much value do you ascribe to
performances in the NBA, they're like kind of happening right now,
Like do you take it with a measure of skepticism.
Speaker 3: A little bit? I make note of it. So a
good example Jake Laavia last year, Memphis is in the
middle of a loss season. They're done, they stink, But
he put up a string of really good games in
a row, like game after game after game was really solid.
They put the ball in his hands a lot. And
I just made a note of it to see, all right,
when we get into next year and things are more
normal and they're playing a win again, what does that
look like? And then some of that did carry over,
Like you could see he's playing more confidence. He was
a little bit more comfortable doing things off the dribble,
attack and closeouts, stuff like that. So little things like that,
I try to make a note of it. But yeah,
if a guy is like scoring thirty points per game
on thirty three percent shooting, I'm a little like, yeah,
all right, somebody has to take all those shots for
these bad teams. And he's the guy.
Speaker 1: That you just gave Sixers fans a lot of hope,
then that maybe Quentin Grimes will carry over into what
he's doing right now. Next season, So Keith and I
will get two teams that we think are really going
to define and shape the offseason. But I want to
ask about a lot of the sort of the CBA
fallout that we've seen over the past year or so
first before we get there, which can in turn shape
that discussion.
Speaker 2: I want to start here.
Speaker 1: When you saw like the and you really dove into
and you were on the podcast talking about it, like
the CBA when it was first agreed upon, and even
as the changes started to be implemented, what did you
think were the primary intentions behind the way the CBA
was structured And do you think that those primary tensions
have now played out or are accurately.
Speaker 2: Playing out the way that the league intended.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there were there was two ends. The
one that got all the attention was very high profile,
was taking the very high spending teams and bringing them down,
bringing them back more to the pack, so the Warriors,
the Clippers, where the nets were headed. That's what they
wanted to do. But the other side, it didn't get
as talked about quite as much, was to bring the
teams that were down here and bring them up a
little bit and bring everybody closer to the middle, bring
everybody more to the same, so everybody knows, right, you
can't have these super duper expensive teams, or if you can,
there's all these restrictions that's going to make life really
hard on you. Phoenix Suns, for example, what people I
think missed a little was before the new CBA, you
had the Spurs and the Pacers going into the season
with thirty forty million dollars in cap space just sitting unused.
And what the NBA really wanted to do was introduce
more money being used. So it sounds crazy to say it,
but the less less you bring teams down, or the
less you allow teams to spend, the more players they
can actually pay. Because they're not spending it all on
five guys, they're able then to sign other guys and
use exceptions and all that. And you're getting, you know,
in range of instead of one hundred guys make make
all the money and three hundred make you know, very
little money, you now have maybe fifty make all the money,
or eventually we'll get there and then you're gonna have
even less, even more guys making you know, a whole
bunch of money. And that's that's where they wanted to go.
They wanted to introduce spending for those teams that were
content to sit under the cap. And I think largely
it's played out. Okay, you had kind of the phase
in years which the Celtics and Bucks and Suns used
to be fuck their rosters and add guys that they
could no longer add if this was starting right now.
So they're just in a spot where once those teams
kind of play themselves out and that'll come over the
next you know, so many years, probably sooner for Phoenix
than than the other teams. But but as that comes
then then I think we're gonna see it much more.
Even playing field never be truly even, because not every
ownership group has the same kind of spending power or
ability or your ability to go get the right people
collecting talent. But but I do think we're gonna see uh,
the bounce out a lot more.
Speaker 1: There's always the everyone talks about unintended consequences of not
just new cbas, but when there's new rule changes. So
far there's probably still developments to come. What do you
view as the primary unintended consequence that's really bore out
so far?
Speaker 2: As a result of the new rules.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think a lot got made over no one's
going to be able to make trades and all that stuff,
and then we saw this wild blockbuster trade deadline with
you know, tons of big name superstars moving around and
all kinds of stuff. Teams will always find a way,
you know, one of my favorite movies is Jurassic Park.
Life finds a way. NBA team will away, right, so
they will figure it out, you know. With that, I
think I think one thing that was definitely unintended was
the amount of teams that sat on their non tax
payer EML to then use it as a trade traded
player exception, because that's a new change, that's something that's
that's newer, and you saw very few teams use that
as a spending tool to sign players to contracts. Most
of them sat on that exception and then used it
as a trade exception during the course of the year,
which that's not really what the league wanted. The league
still want those being spent because if you think about it, right,
if I trade, if I have that twelve million dollar
exception and I trade for a twelve million dollar player,
there's no new money being introduced into the system. There,
that's just twelve million dollar players being moved around for
a twelve into a twelve million dollar exception. If I
signed it, signed a player for twelve million, and then
traded a twelve million player for a twelve million player,
at least I've introduced twelve million new dollars and into
the system. And that's one where I think that that
was just a little bit of a miss, And that's
teams being conservative and saying, hey, we don't really like
the guys who are available right now in July, so
let's hold and see if something better comes our way
for a better use of that later. So that's I
think one of the more unintended things that happened.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was something you and I had talked about
last year as to how many teams would hold it
to try to use it as a traded player exception.
The one that I don't know that I saw coming,
And this is just anecdotally, and it feels maybe you
knew it was coming because it feels sort of obvious
in retrospect. The number of deals that just need to
be three or more teams now feels like that's just
it's through the roof, and that it's going to become
the standard, like, because these teams are going to need
to figure out a way to make the money work.
When you look at teams that either they can't take
back more money than they receive or they don't want
to take back more money than they received because of
the ape like being hard tapped. Did you see that
one coming out? We were gonna have this influx of
three and like four and more team deals.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Not that I'm like patting myself on the back,
burning stroke a genius here, but I kind of knew
it was gonna have to be that way only because
of the restrictions around if you take back more than
one hundred percent, you're hard capped at the first Apron.
If you are a second Apron team and still over
this and Apron, you can't aggregate contracts going out. I knew,
all right, we're gonna need this to turn into being
a multi team trade to get money going, you know,
moving around the way it needs to. I was wondering
how teams were gonna pull it off because you didn't
have teams sitting on you know, twenty thirty million dollars
in caps. We should the Pistons sitting on about fourteen
or so, and that's that's about where we'll be. I think,
you know, that's you know, roughly ten percent of the
cap is what any team can carry in now to
the season because if you're not over the luxury tax
line by the time the season starts, they do or
the luxury tax line the salary cap line. By the
time the season starts, they're gonna put a cap hold
on your books, which brings you up to the ninety
percent marker, which is the salary floor. And then what
happens is you can you still have that wigger room there,
and that's ten percent of the cap. You have that
wiggle room to use in trades if you want to
sit on cap space. But the rest, but the bigger
penalty is you don't share in the luxury attacks check
if you if you don't meet at least the salary floor.
So everybody's from now moving forward, everyone's going to meet
the salary floor because no team is going to say, yeah,
we can four go twelve to fifteen million dollars for
nothing at the end of the season, like that's not
going to be a thing. So so that's I think
where we get to be a little bit of a
challenge with that.
Speaker 1: I think this is an intended consequence, but I underestimated
it of how many teams would be actively either afraid
or trying to avoid being in the second apron And
so I'm kind of wondering that. You know, I don't
matt Ishbiah for the Suns that just said he's going
to continue to spend whatever it takes. But they're just
a bad example because they're bad. And so I look
at a team like Boston that has the ability to
be sustainably great, do you think they'll be a good
lit miss test, especially because they they're not barren completely
of draft picks moving forward, for the stomach that these
teams have to stay in the second rapeens where we're
not just talking about your pick seven years out being frozen,
but potentially getting moved to the end of the first round,
or they not even a good case study because they
have like the whole ownership change potentially immin it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if we take the ownership change out, because who
knows what that will bring, right, You're always hopeful that'll
bring somebody who says, spend even more. Right, let's go crazy,
because if you're a sports fan. The only time you
should ever root for ownership is a sports fan is
when they're writing massive checks for your team. Like other
than that, like who cares? Like let the money go
to the to the players and the coaches and the
front office people who actually do the real work instead
of a billionaire for his toy and his hobby. So
I always kind of say, you know, right, the role
of a sports owner is how good people get out
of the way and write really big checks. Like that's
what you should do. With that said, if the Celtics,
let's say ownership is just say, they're basically the same, right, like,
like it's same attitude towards spending and all that. I
think what you'll see with them is and I think
that that this will be the kind of approach for
any other team that finds themselves in a similar position
to Boston will be as long as you're competing for
the title, and by that I mean you're at least
in a competitive conference finals, will feel good about continuing
to spend that the level we're at. I don't think
you're gonna see like, let's say they go back to back,
I don't think you're gonna see them say well, you know,
we're just too expensive. Time to trade Christaps Porzingis or
move Jalen Brown or whatever it is, because one you're
gonna have to take money back anyway. So I think
I think it's as long as we're competitive and we're
right there, it'll be very hard to break up those
teams because fans just won't stand for it, especially you know,
very loud fan base like the Celtics have. So but
the minute they're slippage there, let's say they let's say
they lose before the conference finals. Let's say the Cavs
blow their doors off in the conference finals. Then I
think you're gonna see, all right, hey, we need to
make some changes. One, because that's the natural inclination is
we didn't succeed, so let's make some changes. But two
it'll be we didn't succeed and we're wildly expensive. We
need we need to do something different and that.
Speaker 1: So, if anything, it feels like it might prompt teams
to be more reactive to coming up short, like in
the playoffs, where it's I think, if so, if you
went to the conference finals of the Celtics after winning
the title, let's say you lose in five games. Yeah,
there might be a natural inclination in general to want
to make changes, but if you weren't facing the second
apron restrictions, maybe be like, well, it's the conference finals,
we just want a title.
Speaker 2: Let's give it another year.
Speaker 1: But it seems like there'll be more instances of sort
of like even with Minnesota, kind of the way they've
like remade their roster where it's if you fail, and
by fail me not winning the title. Teams will just
be quicker to make wholesale reactions to that failure.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we may see that for sure. I
think there's gonna be much shorter windows given. Like, no,
I don't want to continue to make everything about Celtics.
I mean I will happily, but I'm not going to.
But with them, that kind of core group got to
bang their head against the wall for how many times
right before they finally broke through and they were able
to get through, I don't think you're gonna necessarily see that.
Like say the Wolves make a nice run this year
and then next year they're in the conference finals again,
then it's an NBA Finals. I don't think you're going
to see them Just let's keep plow the money into
this group and get there. I think it'll be all right.
We didn't break through. Time to retool. I don't think
it'll be let's tear it all the way down. They'll
certainly always be those situations that will happen, but I
think it'll be more of all right, this is not
the right mix. Let's see where we go. Like the
Calves might be a really good example. They don't get
through this year. I don't know that they come back
exactly the same or mostly the same. I think you
might see then say, all right, let's make a couple changes.
What worked, what didn't work? What should we look to move? Change,
switch out, and go in a slightly different direction, because
that pressure is just going to be so much to
be one. If we don't do it sooner rather than later,
we may get stuck with this group a little bit
and then all of a sudden, it is all right.
Now where we've turned what could have been a let's
retool on the fly, Then maybe we end up rebuilding
into a all right, we're just kind of stuck around
the fifth, sixth, seventh best team in the conference for
years and years and years because we can't get out
of this now because we just get kind of stuck
in it.
Speaker 1: I'm also interested to see if there's the not these
aren't necessarily I guess the Houston's an up and coming team.
But where you have Houston and OKAC specifically, where it's
you have a players, multiple players on their rookie scales
who can turn into max or near max players, like
we've seen Houston with Jalen Green and Shangun already, They're
probably been more fascinating than OKAC just because shan Gun
Jalen Green. Of all, you have Aman Thompson and Tari Easton,
and then Jabari and Easner extension as well.
Speaker 2: This summer.
Speaker 1: I'm curious if we see more players being moved, well,
maybe they're still on their rookie deals. If you have
enough and you're worried about having yeah, we call them
the fun Maxes or Brian Windhorst the fun Maxes or
the fun extensions. But if you have, if you built
your team through a rebuilding, you have all these higher
profile draft picks, you might command a lot of money.
We've yet to see it, of course, I'm wondering if
that becomes an offshoot of the way that the CBA
set up right now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it certainly could. I always say it
sounds awesome to have seventy eighty nine to ten extra
draft picks in like a five year window or whatever
it is, until they all kind of hit and then
you're gonna pay everybody. And there's no team in the
league that could do that. So that's where I think
what you may see good example with Houston. Right, So
let's say Houston has a nice little run here, they
make a little noise in the playoffs, but not a
real contender. I think what you see is, well, rather
than pay both Jabari Smith and Tario Easton, and I
have Thompson's extension looming, and we've got, you know, to
do something with Fred van Vliet and all that, I
think what you'll see them do is let's take two
or three of those guys consolidate them into I'm gonna
use Kevin Durant as the example. Even though a million
people have gone there and they Houston has said a
million times over, no, like we're not doing that. But
you know, okay, I believe yeah exactly. Yeah, they're always
very upfront in their negotiations, especially through the media. But
I think what but that type of move where it
is right, we'll go get the guy who can maybe
push us over the top, and then we can play
a little more year to year with that guy going forward.
I think those are the kind of things you're gonna
see teams, do you know, over the next let's call
it probably three four years until things kind of renormalize again,
because that's what what happens with the new CBA is
first few years are always we're figuring it out. We're
kind of learning how to live under this new world.
We're figuring out how all right, who else who's making
mistakes that we can take advantage of. I'm under this
new world where can we kind of pick off talent
or pickoff assets because they're they're stuck this way? And
then what you see as everything starts to renormalize when
we get into a spall where about four to five
years into it, and then of course it's let's renegotiated
again and change all these rules all over again and
after we relearn it. But those are kind of the
windows we live.
Speaker 2: In with this.
Speaker 1: You can correct me if you disagree here, but I
feel like we are in a golden age of minimally
bad contracts in the league where just the combination of
you know, cap growth outpacing raises, and then the.
Speaker 2: Deals are just because of the extensions being signed.
Speaker 1: A lot of times they're just shorter where it's okay,
like this player's under contract for four total years instead
of five. With that said, I feel like maybe the
past two seasons specifically, and I don't know if this
is maybe part of the renormalization where teams don't know
what they're dealing with in the let's call it the
apron era, so that's why they're viewed this way. But
like zach Lavine and Jeremy Grant specifically, are two contracts
where you know, the Jeremy Grant won no one celebrated
in real time. They found it curious, mostly because of
Portland's direction, but the way that the view of that
contract has aged, and then even the way that like
zach Lavine's contract has aged and then what he was
I know it's the bulls, but like what they ultimately
got for him for a player who's still really good,
and for a contract that at this point there's only
two more guaranteed years left on and it's not like
it's the end of the world. Are we going to
now pivot back into where it'll be easier to spot
like quote unquote bad deals or do you think that
this is just maybe a short term by product of
teams figuring out the aprons.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we're in a spot where there are
less bad ones. I used to write annul aired write
up a contra list of the ten worse contracts in
the NBA, and this year we didn't do it because
it was just by the end it was gonna be like,
a we'll put this one on there, but it's really
not that bad. Let me now explain why it's really
not that bad. And that's kind of at that point,
it's like, there, what are we doing the list for?
Are there some bad ones? Of course are There's always
gonna be a handful where it's like, oh no, you
know what happened there. But Zach Levine's a great example.
I had said, and you know this from private chats
and stuff we've had, I don't think Zach Colvine's a
bad contract. From the standpoint of that was mostly about health.
If he was healthy, super productive, pretty efficient guy, pretty
plug him play in that he can play with a
lot of different players, because he could play on ball,
he could play off ball, he could do a lot
of different things. So that's where it felt like we
kind of in this rush to declare everything good or bad.
We were like, oh, that's horrible, what a trrendous contract. Yeah,
if he continue to have knee issues and foot issues
and everything else he had going on, that was gonna
be a bad contract because you just weren't gonna say
him on the floor. But once he was proven this
year of the he's pretty much pass all that stuff. Yeah,
it doesn't look that bad. Now, on the flip side,
you have one like Bradley Beal, which is a Max
deal with a no trade. So I think what's happened
is teams have gotten smarter. They've also gotten a little
more conservative, and players have played into it in a
sense of they don't have the patience to necessarily stay
in a place long enough to earn a major, large,
bad contract. Where now it is I want to move
somewhere else. Then if it's you move, sometimes it takes
away the supermax. Like Luca didn't ask for a trade,
but Luca can't. Even if Luca does turn out to
be five hundred pounds next year, and can barely walk
like it's never gonna be a super Max deal because
he can't get one anymore. So I think that's where
his players have pushed for more movement and things like that.
Barely anybody ever qualifies for no trade clause. That's why
they're so so rare. And then you're gonna see teams,
I think, be extremely sting you with them anyway, because
it's gonna be Yeah, we can't have this turn into
a Bradley Beal situation where you can kind of hold
the whole organization hosts the cha way.
Speaker 1: Do you think that we could see teams also start
to I don't even I wouldn't call this a criticism.
I think it's just the way the system works. Teams
should squeeze their own free agents more when it doesn't
seem like there's a market and I restricted free agencies.
The example I keep going back to because I'm pretty
sure the last offer sheet from a rival team was
when the Jazz gave Paul Reid one in the summer
of twenty twenty three. It's like, we don't see these offers,
like teams don't want to tie up I guess money
and players they're probably not gonna get and yet despite
what is a clear lack of market elsewhere, we see
like the Obie cop top In contract not one of
the worst deals in the league, but like who was
giving him four and sixty or even a manual.
Speaker 2: Quickly in Toronto, who I think is a really good player.
Speaker 1: Do you think that we're gonna start to see teams
like kind of squeeze there, like when you're looking Quentin
Grimes in Philly or maybe cam Thomas and Brooklyn this year,
or do you think there's always gonna be that level
of one? Maybe teams view this as we always need
tradable mid end salary, which fine, but when you're going
four and five years like that's where I'm like, okay,
then what are we doing here? Are there always gonna
be that element of teams just paying their own players
even though they don't have a ton of leverage, or
could you see teams trying to exert that leverage more
moving forward?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's levels to it. I think, like
you mentioned the fun max idea, those are still going
to happen because those are more about it's of course,
it's about the money. I don't want to pretend that
these hundreds of millions of dollars contracts aren't about the money,
but a lot of that is also about respect of
I am a MAX guy, and I think teams are
going to be more willing to say, yeah, you're a
MAX guy. At twenty five percent or thirty percent, we
can live.
Speaker 2: With that, fine, okay.
Speaker 3: I think what we're going to see is it's gonna
be that continuous squeezing of I don't want to say
the middle class, but it's like that like upper middle class,
if you will, where it's gonna be like the Obi
Toppins of the world, where it'll be, yeah, fifteen million
for him, a bit rich. And I think what teams
are gonna do is the really smart teams are gonna
sit down with their players. They're gonna have a conversation where, hey,
if we give all of you three to five million
more than what we probably should, we will not be
able to go get player seven, player eight on our
roster because we're gonna be so capped out we up
against the aprons. It's gonna be a problem. I think
what what will also happen, which is unfortunate, it is
they're really cheap ownership groups are gonna use that same strategy,
but then they're never they never have the intention of
getting player seven and eight right. It'll just be we
just don't want to pay you right. It's just gonna
be where we want to live right at the right
at the cap, because everybody basically gets to the cap
in the end, but we want to live right at
the cap. We don't want to be very far over
it where we're not gonna come in under it. We
want to be right there. And that's where I they
think you'll see some of that happen. But I do
think teams are going to be more cautious with the
longer term, slightly bigger than they should be contracts where
what I think will be really smart businesses. Like I
used Grant Williams as an example for this a couple
of years ago when he was a free agent with
the Celtics. I would not have had a problem if
they gave him like a two year deal where they
gave him like even eighteen million a year, because the
idea would have been, now that's eighteen million a tradable
salary that we're gonna need because we don't have tradable
salary elsewhere. On the roster without touching a core rotation guy.
So I think that's where you could see teams still
play some of those games, but you're gonna have to
play him on very short term contracts where you feel
really good about, all right, we can still control this
and move this guy, versus the idea of yeah, let's
just give out four year, twenty million dollar a year
contracts to everybody just because it's you know, not really
gonna kill us. It's rare. Yeah, some of the max
deals that turn sour kill you. But it's more when
you are piled up on these mid range ones and
it sounds good to have three or four of them
for trade purposes until you actually have to trade them,
and then it's like, well, nobody wants them, and that's
where you gets stuck.
Speaker 1: Do you think that there could be I know, you
mentioned like mostly it'll be the for lack of a
better phrasing, like the middle class type of players that
you could see squeezes happening. And I don't think that
actual MAX stars will necessarily be squeezed. But do you
see do you see a scenario which we could see
more situations play out where teams are making the call
to move on from these guys maybe earlier than you
would expect. Luca is like the mother of all anomalies.
But the fact that the Mavericks were a purpotly that
concern about paying him, it did open my eyes to that.
And we also have kind of seen it with you know,
James Harden just not having like a market available outside
Feeling and he's making sub max now and even George
he found Max money in Philly, but like La not
really willing to go to that level for him where
I think, you know, a few years ago, like put
Paul George, same age, same injury history in that market. No,
like that's probably not as hard of a decision. Do
you think that this like new CBA's influenced that at
all or is this just like a product of teams?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 1: I guess the Aging Stars is one thing where it's
like we don't want to necessarily review them as reflexive
Max contract guys. But even the regardless of where you
land on well who initiated stuff with the Aaron Fox
and Sacramento that at least felt more like Sacramento driven
than it normally.
Speaker 2: Would have been.
Speaker 1: So like, could that be a potential just effect of
how the CBA is set up right now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think let's take Luca and put him way
over here off screen because that's its own thing, right,
Like that was.
Speaker 1: And they didn't get like like if you're talking about
paying ad so like, yeah, that's a bad example too,
where it's like they didn't necessarily get cheaper that. So
it just it was weird to see someone at his age,
even if you were learned about his stamina, you're worried
about paying him money when even if the bar for
max contracts is going to be higher moving forward, Luca
is like if you're not gonna pay Luca, like, who's
the NBA player You're okay paying.
Speaker 3: One hundred percent?
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I So just if we sit that one all the
way off to its own whatever reasons they did that,
we I'm sure you've had the discussion one hundred times
like I have. There's nothing really more to be said there.
Either you're on board and you're Nico Harrison or you're
everyone else on the planet and you disagree. But anyway,
I think what you're gonna see, Paul George being a
really good example, I think you're gonna see teams really
draw a line in the sand with no bolder player.
We're not gonna automax you anymore. That's not gonna be
a thing like we We are gonna really say if
there's injury history or you're bumping into the over thirty
eight rule like by the end of your contract or whatever,
we're not gonna do it like. We're gonna be very
firm and staunch with this. Will some guys get there,
of course they will, like Lebron probably will be on
a MAX near MAX for the rest of his career
if he wants to be, and and I know he
left some money on the table, but that was his decision.
I think where we're gonna it's going to be interesting
to see is the next level guy who comes in,
who is a they're going into that thirty five max,
they're a borderline all star. Maybe they make it, maybe
they don't do. Teams hold firm there and say it's
either not gonna be the max or we will will
either give you years or we'll give you dollars, but
you're not getting both. I think Rudy Gobert was a
little instructive with that with the Timberwolves, where was we'll
give you the years, but we're not gonna give you
all the money, like you're gonna have to take less money.
And that's probably how it should work, where I think
there is a sense of yeah, once the guy's passed
that ten years of service. There's some guys are fine
right because they're ten years of service and they're not
even thirty years old yet, so it's like, yeah, they're thirty,
they're gonna be fine for another four or five years.
But it's when it's like turning into contract number four
or contract number five for a guy. They don't all
need to be four years five years in length, knowing
totally with your year's left plus extension or whatever. Like
Damian Lillard. I think now if this was coming around
in today's world, I think I think the Bucks, the Trailblazers,
whoever was had his rights at the time, would pause
and say, do we really need to go full length
max on this or can we hold back a little bit.
And again, I think part of that conversation is going
to be, Hey, when you're thirty six years old, is
it really that important to you to be making seventy
million a year or would you rather have us use
some of that money to help you try to win,
because it's gonna be really hard to do both. And
that's where I think think that'll be the give and
take will be with those players.
Speaker 1: I didn't include this in the outline I sent you,
But is there what would be the pathway to free
agency becoming cool again?
Speaker 2: Or does it really still not exist.
Speaker 1: I've seen some people say that because of the aprons
that will somehow bring back the appeal and mestique of
free agency, But I'm just like, maybe we're just too
far removes from like the Halcyondes a free agency for
me to envision it. But I don't see how the
current setup necessarily invites. You know, for certain players like
Kobe White, the one hundred and forty percent extension rules
not enough and Ogananobe this pass offseason, but what did
he do? He resigned with the team that he was
on right away. So is there a path to like
free agency becoming cool again?
Speaker 3: There is? I think all this stuff goes in cycles.
I think what you'll see is when they continued cap growth,
and if teams are a little more conservative, you'll see
probably twenty six, maybe twenty seven, definitely by twenty twenty eight,
you're gonna see seven eight teams hit the summer with
cap space. When that happens, that's when you'll see free
agents will say, Okay, I'll time it up to maybe
be a free agent there because like last year is
like Darin am I going to Philly? Like okay, Like
if I'm not Paul Georgian going to Philly, then what
why do I need to you know, why shouldn't I
extend this summer? It's the Nets, and the Nets are
clearly in a rebuild. They're not gonna pull off the
Katie Kyrie summer again. So I think a lot of
guys are like, yeah, like I'd rather extend. And that's
where I think what you'll see is it's the Kobe
Whites of the world. Those are the guys who are
more likely to hit free agency because what will happen
is the Max guys, the Jason Tatums, the Lucas, those guys,
they're always gonna take the Max extension until somebody doesn't,
which is then when I always say, if you're a
fan of that team, that's the time to you know,
throw up the red warning lights and everything else and
probably trade the guy because you're probably in a spot
where they don't want to be there anymore. Because no
one turns down that max extension, it just doesn't happen.
So I think that's where you're gonna see, you know,
some stuff like that, where it'll be a little bit
more of it'll come back around in cycles. And then
I think what will also happen is you're gonna see
teams will probably get even more aggressive with the let's
just call it what it is, the tampering part of it,
where it is, you know, a couple of years out,
it'll be, hey, we know this guy really wants to
play here. How do we start lining things up and
where the cap is going As if you start dropping
contracts off, you're not talking creating twenty thirty million in space.
CAP's going to be pushing two hundred million pretty soon.
So where the cap starts pushing that much, you're gonna
see contracts dropping off, and then it'll be hey, we're
no longer capped out. We have one hundred and fifty
million dollars in cap space to go spend. Now, a
max contract by that point will be seventy million dollars,
and that'll be a slightly different thing because you'll be
in a spot where it'll be alright, well we can
get one or two guys and that that's what That's
where one of the things we've done on spot track,
all of our salary pages have percent of cap next
to the salary number because we want people to think
in those terms, right, because I say that, you know,
guys are gonna be making seventy million dollars on a
max steel and people are like, this is crazy, this
is nuts, like same percent of the cap that it was,
you know, ten years ago. It's just everything's grown. It's
just as everything grows, it becomes a much bigger number.
But that'll be be where I think you will see
kind of free agency come back into play.
Speaker 1: I was wondering if it would almost have the opposite effect,
whereas teams have cap space and if you have more
of a blank slate, maybe it doesn't matter. But like
the Jared Jackson Junior is a potential example. Maybe a
bad example because he's probably gonna make all MBA, but like,
could we see an increase in renegotiating ext dens to
where you're giving players bumps you don't have to in
exchange for like in those out years, you're saving a
few million dollars or whatever, like sort of what we
saw with Larry market In whereas they gave him a
bunch of money now, which seems like they were buying
his silence basically for the for the tank and it's
but they didn't have to give him like the actual
max money that that they were going to.
Speaker 2: I guess we're just still too young.
Speaker 1: And again, Jaron Jackson, you would only be the second
example of that happening recently.
Speaker 3: Yeah, good example though, Miles Turner h did did kind
of what you were saying when the Pacers a few
years ago did the renegotiation and an extension where they
gave him a whole bunch of money in that first
year and then the next two years were really probably
a little undermarket or for what he is as a player,
but that's because he got it almost as a quote
unquote bonus in that first year. The problem is getting
to those positions to have all that cap space to
be able to do that that That can be a
very challenging thing to be able to pull off. So
I think teams will much prefer the standard extent. But yeah,
I say this all the time. Sounds awesome when you
get the guy on a contract where you're like, man,
that's a really good number for him. Jared Jackson Jr.
You mentioned Kobe White earlier in the show. Really great
contracts until it's time for the next one, and it
is we can't really extend them off this number. They're
gonna hit free agency. Then that's when you're really hoping,
ir Well, let's hope the bird rights trump ball, we
can get him a free agency and all those things.
But you just enter entering a bit of unknown that
you'd rather have as a controllable there versus variable that
that you you don't really know how it will go
and if it'll go your way. But you'll see renegotiation
and extension come up. It's funny. They kind of come
in waves. Well, we'll have like four or five of them,
then we won't have any for a number of years.
Then we're like four or five. But again that's cap
space comes in waves as well, where it'll be we
capped out. We stayed capped out for about a four
or five year window. Now we have some cap space,
let's let's do some stuff. This is kind of coincidentally
where I think and I don't know if this on
your list, so APO, just if I'm stepping on it.
But the draft is going to become even more important
for teams because one you get them on those rookie
scale deals which are almost automatically team friendly, and if
you can nail draft picks, it just gives you a
four year window where it's like you're kind of playing
almost with free money a little bit there. Like people
know nothing is better than a rookie quarterback in the
NFL because they make like nothing and it's the most
important position on the field. Like San Antonio Spurs, they
still have two more years of Wembin Yama making pigments
compared to what he should be making, and that just
makes everything that much easier. But you have to take
advantage when you have those guys.
Speaker 2: That's yeah, the draft stuff for sure. And I was
actually surprised.
Speaker 1: We did a Rule change podcast where we responded to
subscribers propose all these rules submissions, and I was actually
surprised at how many people want to abolish the draft
as part of that, because I don't I understand like
in theory giving players freedom of choice, it's like that
would be cool and is important, and it's like, yes,
us in what we do, we do have freedom of choice,
of course, it's I just feel like it's different when
you're talking about millions of dollars versus the every person.
Speaker 2: But like, where do you land on that?
Speaker 1: Like, I just feel like the draft is way too
important to like giving even a relatively fair playing field
like for teams to build from the ground up. That
I can't even And first of all, it's its own
industry now, right like the NBA Draft, it's covered, the
NBA pumps it up. I just I'm still surprised, like
I said, how many people would be in favor of
like making it like a free agency driven like for rookies,
because I feel like that'd be from a competitive landscape,
I feel like it would be a disaster.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is where I always kind of go back
to the like idea of don't compare our real lives
to the lives of professional sports and athletes, because people
will say things like, oh, load management is so ridiculous.
Can you imagine if I told my boss I just
wasn't going to come in today and wasn't going to
come to work, And I'm like, in my first real
answer somebody worked in corporate America for twenty plus years
is usually you never took a sick day just to
hang out, Like, come on, of course you did, right,
We all do that, was you?
Speaker 2: You want to know if you're listening, I've never once
done that.
Speaker 3: Well I don't do that anymore, but there's I do now.
But but like you know, it's like, come on now,
like we've all done that. So this is where when
they're like, could you imagine if we, you know, went
to you know, all right college graduates. Happening now all
the top engineering companies draft all the top engineers instead
of just paying them, you know, more than the next place.
And I'm like, yeah, but the top engineering companies are
trying to put each other out of business. NBA teams
are trying to beat each other. But the Lakers need
the Clippers, they need the Jazz, right otherwise there's no league.
And that's where I worry is you start doing stuff
like get rid of the draft. Well, everybody's just gonna
sign with New York and LA and one of those teams,
because why not, Like you're I can make a ton
more in endorsements if I'm in one of those markets
now don't need to really worry about it. So of
course I'm gonna go there and take a whole bunch
of money that way, because yeah, it's still a salary
cap league, and I can't make you know, just free
you know, money off of whatever. But I'll make it
up off the court. Now that's where. Then then what
happens to Orlando and Indiana and all those teams? Like
where do they go?
Speaker 1: Is there anything that you think is flying under the
radar about the new CBA climber or that you wish
that when you're going on in these shows someone would
ask you about that's not receiving enough attention.
Speaker 3: I can I flip the question?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like, I really hope the trade deadline taught
us like it's okay, Like teams are really smart, They're
gonna find ways to make moves.
Speaker 3: I'm still hearing people be like, well, you know, there's
not gonna be really a whole lot that happens this summer.
It's like you just saw like a whole crapload of
stuff happened. And I go back to I had the
real pleasure to be a judge in Arizona State University
Law School, does a mock trade deadline competition where they
bring in all these law students and they have to
follow the real trade rules and all that stuff. In
a six hour window, they made like forty three trades
involving all thirty teams. Some of them none of them
were like crazy, Like like, let me tell you this,
There wasn't a Luca trade in there, so, like truth
is always stranger than fiction. But like I was like, yeah,
if a bunch of college kids who are doing this
kind of for fun but also to build a resume
and show off for NBA people, because there was a
ton of NBA executives there, like there, if they can
pull it off, NBA teams can pull it off. So
that's where I'll flip the question and say something I
would like to hear less of is like, oh, it's
so restrictive and no one can do anything. We saw
all kinds of crazy stuff happen. We're gonna see it
again this summer. Teams just have to get really creative
and it's gonna be more three and four multi team
trades and all kinds of stuff. The nets, I mean,
Sean Marks if he doesn't want to play the restricted
free agent offer sheet game. He's got to be licking
his chop saying, hey, got fifty million in cap space,
like third team men, third team men, like who needs help?
You know, who needs me to eat a deal? Right?
Because it's that's where he should be and he should
be collecting, you know, a ton of assets for doing
that as it goes along. And then I would say
one thing that is going maybe a little bit under
the radar is I am curious to see where the
frozen draft picks and draft picks being moved to the
back of the round, how that's going to impact teams,
especially if it is we're close to going over the
second apron and we could acquire player RECs who would
really probably put us over the top to be in
a contender. But is that gonna screw us several years
from now? Where are we gonna go with that? And
that's where I think that's something that I think we
need to pay a little bit more attention to because
that's one of the phased in rules that wasn't around
for the first couple of years in the new CBA.
It's now all coming into play now. So that's something
I'm very much curious to see how that plays out.
Speaker 1: Could that potentially have the effect of teams extending their
window because if they know that, like they don't have
that out down the line, that it's gonna be number three,
so it's not even just frozen. They can't move, it's
gonna be number thirty. That's we might as well just
we're gonna pay and if this team is still good,
like we'll deal with that. And I guess the other
thing is I have not given this an iota of
thought before you just mentioned that. Can you only have
one draft pick like frozen and moved at a time
like this?
Speaker 2: Is is it cyclical?
Speaker 1: Where it's like if you're still in there now, your
twenty thirty three first round pick is also frozen and
that's in danger and you could have multiple picks like wow, okay,
that's interesting.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah it is that ladder way. Yeah where And
I'm just nodding like an idiot because that's really good radio.
Speaker 2: But yeah, it will appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So but yeah, absolutely that is where it is. Yeah,
you could continue it just rolls, you know, seven years out,
seven years out, seven years out, it just keeps rolling
over And then there are mechanisms where if you get
out from underneath, it becomes unfrozen and you can do things.
Because the idea is, who's probably really gonna still be
your second apron team in year one? Are you really
probably gonna be one in year five? Probably not? And
that's where I think they're hopeful that could be punitive
enough to say, get yourself out of there so you
can free that up and do things. But I think
to your point, I do think you are going to
see teams where if you feel like, again, I'm gonna
make it about the Celtics, but if you feel like, hey,
Tatum and Brown and almost whoever else we throw around them,
We'll just keep rolling over the salary slots and the
new guys. We keep this going. You you may see
them push that where it's like, all right, you know what,
we're probably gonna pick twenty eighth anyway, who cares if
it's thirtieth, what difference does make. We're not looking to
trade that pick, so it doesn't matter anyway. So that's
where where I do think you will see a little
bit of that come into play as well.
Speaker 1: All right, are you ready to get into some teams
that will define the offseason? Our little draft year I
love it as the guest you get to go first.
Who's the who's the first team you're looking at?
Speaker 3: All, Right, I'm gonna do the very easy one off
the board, Phoenix Suns, because Kevin Durant's gonna get traded
and whatever happens there, that's gonna be seismic. Right, it's KD.
I realize it's this version of KD, but he's still KD.
He's still awesome. That's gonna set up a lot further
rest of the league.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's like there, it's I'm trying to
think that whole lead up to the trade deadline where
they were shopping him without telling him, and then it
just you knew it was real when Brian Windhors comes
out in advance of something rather than after the fact
and says, yeah, he's gone. And I'm just like tryings
like we've gotten to a point where like it's so
faint to complete that it feels awkward, where like you
can always forecast when KD might be traded or leave,
but the fact that it's just a foregone conclusion, it's
it's giving like that final year of the Warriors vibes,
but even more inevitable. I'm so curious to see what
he fetches as just like we've seen their you know,
reported asking price. But just given his age, only a
year left on his contract, which I don't think matters
too much because if you're getting him, he probably have
insight whether he.
Speaker 2: Wants to stay.
Speaker 1: But do you think that people will be surprised at
how much he gets or surprised at how little he gets,
Like which sort of end of the spectrum you skew towards.
Speaker 3: Think it's probably gonna be the second one. I don't
think they're going to return a massive value for him
because I think what's gonna happen is the Suns are
just did not take whatever you can get. But I
think it's gonna be we cannot run this back. This
is not good for anybody involved, and it's gonna be
let's just move on so we could do whatever else
we're going to do. I'm moving forward, and I think
it is gonna be a little bit less than what
people really think.
Speaker 1: Do you have like a favorite dark horse team for him?
Like if we know all that kind of the usual
suspects there, but do you have like a team that's
not really mentioned or only tangentially mentioned, that would be
interesting to see him land off.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would love to see, Like what if san
Antonio jumped in it was like, let's go, like we
were getting one be back, We've got de Aaron Fox,
now we could get KD. Why can't we be a
top you know four team in the conference and it
just you know, push in and try to make something
happen like that. That would be one bringing back to
Texas where we went to school, right and just kind
of you know, bring him back there. I always wonder
what it would be like if Washington said, all right,
it's time. He's got so many years left, you know.
And I think if you're the Wizards, you almost look
at it as let's do it because we're probably getting
off one of the contracts, so we don't really want
anyway like Middleton or Smart or something in that trade.
And if it doesn't work out, fine, will either retrade
him ourselves. Guess what, we're bad, We'll still be bad,
or we'll it'll work out great and we'll be you know,
back to be in the you know, playing Wizards again,
and you know, but at least with some young guys
around them. I always kind of wonder about that.
Speaker 1: The Spurs are fun and they're one of the teams
like another one would be maybe the Pelicans just because
they have Zion where it's no, they wouldn't do it.
But if you end up winning the draft lottery and
then so we have Cooper flag talent that can win
immediately and so we're gonna go out and get KD
would be like a fun scenario or see something like
that happen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that would be a blast. I wouldn't mind that.
Speaker 1: I would like Memphis for him. Uh, their salary Mack
gets weird. If you don't want to give up Desmond Baine,
like it probably becomes impossible at that point. But seeing
him play next to John Jaron Jackson Junior would be
loads of fun. And we've wanted them to have I
know they have Joen Wells and Vince Williams, but we've
wanted them to have like a premier wing for what
since Rudy Gay basically.
Speaker 3: Easily Yeah, for sure, somebody who can hit shots too.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: My team is another obvious team, but I made a
note it's the Brooklyn Nets. But I made a note
of this when they were going through one when they
acted early on the trade market because they were too
good and traded Denis Shrewder. But I made note in
the back of my head that they didn't take back
any long term money in that deal. Then they went
around and did the same thing with Dorry and Phinney Smith.
And so cap space can be used.
Speaker 2: For a bunch of different things, and I.
Speaker 1: Would be pretty surprised if they went and tried to
spend it on free agents. But I also looked at
it and said, it feels like they are actively prioritizing
that cap space now, and so it makes it as
a third party team or I don't know where they
land in the lottery, but are they going to want
to make like if there's a star that they just
think is young enough to go after. They're a team
that just as a facilitator in these bigger moves or
maybe being able to make bigger moves moves in free
agency or on the trade market of their own. I
found it fascinating that they prioritized cap space to the
extent that they did while they were making mid season trades.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think what they realized is the market to
eat contracts at the trade deadline was not going to
be that great to get great assets. But the market
to eat contracts this summer to get assets is going
to be huge. Like, for example, if Minnesota wants in
on KD, they're gonna have to trade Julish Randall. I'm
sure maybe the Suns could do something there, but because
of the apron concerns from both teams, it's probably gonna
take a third team. I'm the Nets. Hey, hand up,
We'll take Julis Randall's last year of his contract. You'll
just send over. You'll pick with it, or send you know,
one of your kids or something you know that that
makes it worth our while to do so. And I
think that's the kind of thing you're gonna see them do.
I am very curious. CE two, do they play it
all in the restricted free agent market again? Jonathan kaminga
Josh Giddy like they trump Marcus is done now. If
you don't get them, let's not turn around and trade
for all of them a year later like you did
last time around with Kyler Johnson and Alan crab and
eventually kind of funny, I think they did get Auto
Porter Junior, but way down the line, but like, yeah,
let's be I wouldn't be be surprised at all if
it's there, because I think what you could do if
here the Nats is, hey, we go get one of
those guys with our draft pick, with a couple of
the younger players we have on the roster, a couple
of the guys who are on a longer term deal.
Why can't we be right back in the mix with
Orlando and Atlanta at the bottom of the conference. Why
can't we take a Pistons like jump if we get
the right guys. I'd rather see let's be patient and
build it out. But but I am very curious to
see how that goes.
Speaker 2: Who would be your next team?
Speaker 3: This one's gonna sound a little strange, but it's more
of a what is the long term play here? And
it is the Oklahoma City Thunder? And why I say
that is one. If they fall short, do they start
to make changes? Do you start to cash in and
some of the picks and some of the players and
do some of the stuff. Where it is, let's let's
go do do something right, Let's really try to beef up.
But let's say things go well, you know, they're in
the conference finals or in the NBA finals, maybe they
won the title whatever, What do the extensions look like
for Cheded Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Are they just two
here's two Max steels and off we go and then
knowing Sga is gonna get a Max steal coming up
pretty soon too, or is it going to be let's
let's try to like we talked about basically the show,
let's try to squeeze a little bit and not just
hand out max steals. I'm very curious to see how
they played this.
Speaker 1: Yeah that I'm with Chat specifically, I just wonder if
will there be any injury protection baked in which even
except that, uh, there are a team that operates pretty conservatively,
so I feel like one of those extensions might have
either come in less than the max or may just
have like certain for chets specifically, like weird language in it.
Speaker 2: And I'm also wondering with them too.
Speaker 1: It feels like kind of a like a case of well,
how much do the playoffs define what they offer them?
Where if they get to the playoffs and they lose
in the second round again and the offense struggles even
with Shay on the court, Like, what does that mean
for the value of Jaylen Williams and chet Holmgren moving
forward to them specifically.
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, Yeah, that's that's what I wonder. Do we
get to a point where it becomes, let's look, we
need to do something a little bit different, right, we
need to add different kind of players or wherever it goes.
So very very curious, and we all know they've got still,
you know, countless draft picks to go that they could
put in the trades if they want to get involved
in all kinds of stuff.
Speaker 2: They end up with that Philly pick too, at number seven.
My god, right, yeah, my next team.
Speaker 1: It's a team I would never bet on, but it's
also a team that I just can't quit. They have
one of the highest net ratings against top ten teams
in the league, the Minnesota Timberwolves. So they don't have
tradable picks, but they're about thirteen million dollars away from
the second apron if nas Reed and Julius Randall pick
up their player options, and that's not including a new
deal from Nikkeile Alexander Walker. I'm open to the idea
that maybe Julius Randall's back at a lower number. I
would not guess that Nikkeile Alexander Walker and Naz Reed
are going to be back at lower numbers, and so
I'm very curious to see what their stomach is for
floating this core moving forward, which again that will be
determined to some extent by the playoffs. The fact that
they were linked to Kevin Durant though, I just I
have my eye on that. And then just in general,
because it's Julius RANDALLD could maybe beat his big exp
like he's another player where it's I don't know who's
paying Julius Randall, and if he went out and took
the non tax payer mid level exception, it takes it
more than two full seasons to make up what he
was going to make. So will they look at moving him?
What is the like could they potentially move on from
like NOAs red. I just it feels like their team
is gonna look materially different, for better or worse, And
I don't know what direction it's like, like even if
Julius Randall, it feels like if he ops in might
be the cleanest scenario for them, but you still might
have to pay nas Read and if he ops out, like,
is there a team coming in at more than sixteen million?
A year, like close to the non taxpayer mid level
when there's finite cap space. So we're looking at sign
in trades. Is he just leaving like a team like
Detroit decides to create cap space, or he might be
a good fit on the nets. They're just they have
very little flexibility, and yet they're gonna be so fascinating
to make.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think if you're nas read, you're kind
of hitting the midpoint of your career or you like
I would like to start, you know, and see like
is that something he looks for along with your money
and all that stuff. But but yeah, I'm with you
for all the same reasons you laid out. It's gonna
be a fascinating uh somewhere for the for the Timberwolves,
just because you're close, right, and you have Anthony Edwards
and the last thing you want to do is, man,
we have aunt while he's still young and pre prime, Like,
let's really try to get after this. And really that's
how you extend these windows. And instead of it being
a four year window, it turns into an eight year
window because we put the right guys around him. So yeah,
I'm with you in the KD stuff is a cap
nerd endlessly fascinating, because how the heck are we pulling
this off? Right? Yeah? Right? Two second apron teams like, yo,
what's this gonna look like? Yo? Ho? How do we
get there? And that's again, they'll get there if they
really want to, but how that's gonna be really fun
to track?
Speaker 1: I've also wondered, I don't know what his market would be,
but if you want to keep Nasrit and you think
that he can be kind of your starting big and
maybe you believe in being able to approximate backups, you
could you have Leonard Millard there?
Speaker 2: They seem pretty high on him.
Speaker 1: Could Rudy go Bear just be traded and he would
look at the Suns are looking to be competitive post
KD like he would probably make some sense in whatever
permutation they work up. But I don't know what that
permutation looks like, Keith, because it's okay, so it's Rudy
Gobert and Julius Randall and you're bringing in other teams, like,
are the Sons gonna accept that? And if you're the Wolves,
would you give up Rudy and j Mack like in
that type of a deal. It's just I don't know what,
I don't know how big of a threat they really
are for k D, but if they ended up with him,
I would I would kill to know what that deal
looks like in it man.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, yeah, that's that's even when they said it
was starting, we talked about and I tried and couldn't
get any real clear answers, like how deep into this
did you get with these conversations, because like he's just
so complicated like that. That's that's gonna be a lot
of fun track if it happens.
Speaker 1: I have a bonus question on the timber Wolves, because
it wasn't clear based on the reporting.
Speaker 2: I'm curious if you know anymore. Did they understand when
the Mavericks came calling for Anthony Edwards that Luca Dantis
was on the table or was that kept a secret?
Speaker 3: I have no idea, like they have to Lucas stuff.
I'm like, really like you were just randomly calling on
all these other team stars and they were like, because
my answer would have been, sure, are you're trading us Luca?
Like that? That's how they said, could we trade for
Anthony Edwards? My response would have been, sure, trade us Luca?
And is that what they were looking for. And then
it was like, okay, like them, wait what really? Like
I just I don't know, it's so weird.
Speaker 1: But it's weird too, is that if that happened? Though,
how did it not really get out until it happened
unless it was like the night of that they had
this discussion with with Minnesota. So I just found that
reporting fascinating. Yeah, who would be here next to you?
Speaker 3: All right? I'll say Utah. Only because one obviously the
league was like knock it off, like, no more of
this sitting everybody's stuff. There is the market and stuff
out there. Of like you said, they kind of paid
for a silence, but there was an understanding of this
is not gonna be like a four year thing. This
is gonna be only a couple of years. They've got
all kinds of draft picks coming up, a lot of
flexibility with their cap. You know where did they yell
that that that's team I've got an eye on?
Speaker 2: Yeah? There?
Speaker 1: And then it's also just like is Larry marketing available?
And you see an asset even after the season that
he's having and they're another team where it's sort of
like it feels and and they've been in their rebuild.
This is year three and they don't really have like
a blue chip cornerstone to show for it.
Speaker 2: So that's the importance of this draft baking in.
Speaker 1: But is there any like angst around the organization to hey,
like we actually need to take like more of an
immediate win lost step forward rather than kind of tearing
it down even further because they they were too I
know people criticized them for this, but we all had them,
like in the Doul drums immediately after they traded Gobert
and Mitchell. This was just two consecutive years of being
better than I think internally and externally they were ever
expected to be. And it's it's oddly almost set them back.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the challenge, right, And that's where like I
get when Raptors fans and Nets fans are like, we're
winning too many games, Like it's much is it feels
bad to root for losses the way the NBA is
set up, I mean really almost any of our professional sports.
Really it's the NBA and NFL, or it's two big ones.
With the draft, you root for losses because you know
the wins will come if you do the right thing
in the draft and that's where it just gets gets
really tricky. But yeah, I think thank you tadd I
also would I don't know that Danny Aingel is in
this for like a five year rebuild. Like something tells
me he, you know, didn't sign on there to do
this until he's ninety, so I think there is a
chance like he's gonna be like, hey, let's push a
little bit more and try try to be better a
little sooner out of them.
Speaker 1: Later they would be really because I love when random
teams come out of the woodwork where it's the next
player who's like in their twenties that's a star becomes
available and the jazz are like, you know what, we're
gonna take our top five pick, and we're also and
we're gonna try to rebuild around them, and like if
it's a Devin Booker type deal, they were like, no,
we're gonna go and get Devin Booker even though maybe
we're not on his preferred list.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I always tell people with Utah Tou, it becomes
this whole it's not a free agent destination and players
don't want to play there and all this stuff until
they play there, and then every single guy you talk
to will tell you I loved it in Utah because
one is when they're home, they just want to be
left alone and like no one bothers them there. And
then when they want to go out, it's like a
thirty minute trip to Las Vegas, like via the air.
So like guys are like I can pop over to
Vegas if we have two consecutive days off, party one night,
come home the next night, and be ready to get
back to work. Like I've talked to so many players
that they are like, you know, I didn't really want
to go there at first, but once I got there,
I loved it. And that's where I think they kind
of know, hey, we can get guys, and once we
get them here, they're happy to be here like that
they're not, you know, so like, oh man, I'm just
stuck inside all the time. There's nothing to do. So
that's something I always kind of keep in my back
pocket of you know, you have they make any kind
of surprising move, it's like, yeah, well they probably feel
pretty good about they're gonna win the guy over.
Speaker 2: My next team is the Houston Rockets.
Speaker 1: I think everyone has them ticketed for a consolidation trade,
and I would agree but I don't know if it's
coming this offseason. Again, it's a case of the playoffs
will determine a lot. I don't believe in their half
court offense. It's bottom five in the league, very dependent
on Fred van Fleet. I think they need somebody who's
more consistent than Jalen Green at a better playmaker than
both Van Fleet and Jalen Green in there on the
like to work from the outside in specifically, but I
don't like when you look at what they've accomplished this season,
contending for a number two spot in the West. If
you win a playoff series or take a good team
like the Warriors to seven games or something, and you
don't have to Okay, Shangun and Jalen Green, their deals
are gonna kick in. Easton and Jabari Smith Junior are
just extension eligibility. You can let it ride out to RFA.
You could extend them and then figure it out next summer.
I think that and especially the answer to it. I
believe the answer to everything they need is actually on
the roster. That's how high I am on reach Shepherd. Still,
I'm interested to see whether they take that slant, depending
on what happens in the postseason, and if they do,
if you're a team that ends up being a seller,
that's removing like a pretty big potential suitor from the equation,
and then I would be curious see how that impacts
the overarching trade market.
Speaker 3: I think this is where it's really really hard to
be an NBA GM because the Rockets are a perfect
example of if you go too early, maybe you never
get there. If you go too late, maybe you never
get there. Meaning like, if you cash in right now,
then you're younger guys that you need to like, the
ones who are still left that you need to be
really good aren't quite ready. If you wait a little
too long, then what ends up happening is you you
never get there right now all of a sudden. It's man,
we had all these nice young players, but they're not
really all that interesting, is trade chips? Right? It's People
ask me all the time, like why why did teams
want draft picks so bad? Because the draft pick can
be anything, right, It could be you know, it could
be it could be the next All Star. Once a
guy is kind of on the floor and you've kind
of seen him, you're a little like, all right, he's okay,
but he's not really there. And that's where I think
what's really interesting with the Rocket says, do you get
there you know? Or do you just keep pushing them
with the guys you have? Because I'm with you. I
love the young core, I love the way they've put
this team together. But if they don't all come together perfectly,
you're never gonna actually take that next step. And then
that may be where now we kind of missed our
trade would now.
Speaker 1: And there's like the element of after this season, there's
just going to be expectations caked in if you finish
third or whatever. In the West, it's that's the bar
fair or not. We know progress isn't linear, but that's
the bar to which you're going to be held, not
just moving forward, but for next season specifically.
Speaker 3: Yeah, without a doubt, Yeah, if you're if you're not,
you're not. Like this year, I think everybody kind of you.
You're kind of almost playing with us money right now
a little bit where it's like, just get into the playoffs,
don't embarrass yourself, even if you lose in the first round.
As long as it's competitive, I think everybody will live
with it. But next year it's it has to be better, right,
You can't. You can't keep running that same thing back.
And that's where we've seen teams sometimes they just they
run into it and then it's like it never actually
gets better, and then it's like, man, we kind of
missed our window because now it's guys are on that
second contract or there the shines off them as prospects
or whatever it may be. But yeah, I'm with you
on Houston. I love that young core. I'm I'm okay
if they want to grow it together a little bit more,
maybe make a tweak around the edges a little bit here.
But but I'm alright if they don't want to cash
in for like Kevin Durant or whoever it is right now,
because I don't know that that's gonna be better for
them two three, four years.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actively advocate against the Kevin Durant fit unless
he's just so cheap that it's like money and a
pick or two. Is there anything about the fred Van
Fleet team option that will signal maybe that like, if
they pick up the Fred Van Fleet team option, does
that seem to make it more likely that be making
a bigger move, Because in my head it was why
wouldn't you decline it and try and bring him back
at like a lower number if you actually wanted to
keep him around.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think if you just pick it up, I
think there's a better chance to buy the trade deadline.
You're thinking, we may want to put him into a
deal and you'll really do something big. If you don't
pick it up, then I think you're in a spot
where it becomes all right, let's try to you know,
take that forty five million dollars eas oede and let's
break that up into you know, three year sixty million
or something like that. You know, well, we're just rebalances
a little bit better. I'm moving forward. So yeah, I'm
that'll give us a little bit of a signal on
which direction they're headed.
Speaker 2: Did you have any other teams left on your list
to watch?
Speaker 3: No, you you hit the big ones and in the
ones I gave you, those are the teams I'm kind
of keeping my eye on the.
Speaker 2: I will say, I do have one more if you
have the time for it.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The Portland Trailblazers.
Speaker 1: I've seen a lot of their fans being disappointed that
like their draft picks not going to be higher, and
I would I sympathize and I would normally agree if
they weren't like finding success with the players who should
be playing for the most part, And I'm very curious
to see how, if at all, they react to their
mid season success over the offseasons where Okay, they're not
going to have cap space, but you have a bunch
of players, whether it's Jeremy Grant and Frey Simon's going
into a contract year eight AND's expiring, Robert Williams the
third that you could justify moving the veterans. But if
you do move any of those guys, I don't know
what the market for Grant is. Are you looking for
draft picks and prospects in return or are you Because
it feels like they're a team where they're rebuild feels
like it actually started earlier than it did because of
how pointless the latter Damian Lillard years ultimately were. Are
they going to be in a position to where it's, Oh,
they looked at the progress Scoot made, what Tamati Kamar
is doing, Donovan Klington, what he's been able to do
this year, the moments from Shade and Sharp. Are they
gonna look at and having Dennyava are they gonna look
at it and say, we're gonna like try and like
consolidate here, like ultimately try to get better rather than
m continue this phase of our rebuild.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you. They're like a sneaky team where
I could see them take a couple of the veteran
guys that aren't necessarily really big parts of the future.
It turned them into somebody who can really try to
lift them next next season. Because I think they've done
the rebuilt thing now for a few years. I think
there's some level of impatience there of let's try to
be better sooner rather than later. Let's not get caught
because some of these teams in the West just so,
they're not going away anytime soon, so we don't want
to get Cobb or we're perpetually somewhere between eighth and
twelve in the conference. So I do think you may
see them try to push forward sooner athan later.
Speaker 1: I do also really quickly just have my eye on
Milwaukee because brook Lopez is a free agent and if
for some reason, I mean, like what if they lose
tes right now, they could lose to the Pacers in
Round one, and with brook Lopez being a free agent
and older.
Speaker 2: What does that do?
Speaker 1: Like date, everyone talks about what will Giannis has drop?
Like if Damian Lillard doesn't make a deep playoff run
with this team in his first two years, what happens
with him? And then what kind of trickle down effect
does that have for Giannis? They feel like sort of
the the wild card team of like, oh, they could
really like dictate the biggest offseason sweepstakes this summer.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you. There's certainly going to be if
they fall well shored of their goals, which I think,
you know, it's gonna have to be a conference finals
run for them to feel anything good about where they're at.
I think you're going to see them definitely make some
changes and then yeah, we'll see. With brook Lopez, I mean,
he's still clearly getting it done. But brook Lopez has
always seemed like one of those guys who when he's done,
like he's just gonna be I'm done. They just walk
away and you know, hang out at this world and
be be you know, happy doing that, versus you know,
just I don't know that he's gonna play forever just
to keep playing like It's never really felt that way
with him. And that's not a criticism by any means,
because we've all seen, you know, guys are stuck around,
you know, several years too long. I've just never gotten
that sense that he's gonna be that guy.
Speaker 1: Keith, this was great as always. You were super generous
with your time. Your insight remains beyond compare. Are you
able just to tell our listeners and subs where they
can find you in all the fantastic work that you're doing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can find my written work over at spa
track dot com as well as the Basketball Bulletin. Most
days I do a NBA Game Notes, which is just
notes from the games I watch, plays that stood out
to me. I don't do a lot of commenting on
like oh, you know, you know Luca had fifty last
night because you probably saw that, you know, it might
be more like, you know, Dorian Fidney Smith had seven
assists and did some mom ball playmaking like those are
kind of things that that that h you know. I
try to highlight there and catch things like go a
little bit under the radar and then if you're interested
in more offseason talk, transaction talk, roster type stuff, CBA things,
NBA front Officer with Trevor Lady and I will find
that anywhere you listen to podcast A.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: As always, Keith rest assured I will be pestering you
again in the future, and once more, thank you so
much for your time and I'll talk to you too.
Speaker 3: I appreciate it. Thanks so much for having me