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<v Speaker 1>All right, so welcome back in guys. We are going

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<v Speaker 1>to dive into where the market stands today.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot is happening. We're recording this here.

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<v Speaker 1>In Vegas at the XRP Vegas event, and of course

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<v Speaker 1>joining me is mister Evan.

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<v Speaker 2>Although great to be with you here always here we

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<v Speaker 2>are in person.

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<v Speaker 1>We're hanging out with all these great people, and what

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<v Speaker 1>an amazing show. We got Brad gerling House, David Schwartz

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<v Speaker 1>on stage just now amazing in general. But at the

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<v Speaker 1>same time we've got the FED chair changeover occurring.

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<v Speaker 2>So you look at this right here, you've got the

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<v Speaker 2>FED chair near turned. The US inflation. This is what

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<v Speaker 2>the new FED is going to be facing.

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<v Speaker 1>So near term US inflation expectations now have risen. You

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<v Speaker 1>also have the situation of the PC inflation going up

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<v Speaker 1>to three and a half percent. You're also dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East situation. You've got clarity brewing. And then

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<v Speaker 1>you've got the situation now brew with what could be

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<v Speaker 1>a job reduction around like collars.

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<v Speaker 2>So these are the two factors that the FED hits. Yep,

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<v Speaker 2>Kevin Warsh, welcome aboard. What do you think about that?

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<v Speaker 3>I think you know it aligns with some people hate

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<v Speaker 3>on this, but it aligns with the typical kind of

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<v Speaker 3>sell and may go away that kind of thing. But

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think it's going to be that bad. I

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<v Speaker 3>think we just need things to come down just a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit, Nasdad to come down maybe five percent or something,

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<v Speaker 3>Bitcoin to maybe come back to the mid sixties. That's enough, fear,

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<v Speaker 3>That's enough to get these numbers down, and then hopefully

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<v Speaker 3>we recover into quarter three, quarter four and we see

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<v Speaker 3>one or two rate cuts potentially. So I'm more optimistic,

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<v Speaker 3>but I think we do you think do you.

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<v Speaker 1>Think Howell is going to ruin Trump's parade on rate

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<v Speaker 1>cuts if he says I'm staying around for a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit longer, which takes away one of the governors, that

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<v Speaker 1>would be a Trump loaded fed.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you think?

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know. If it's enough, you have a very

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<v Speaker 3>divided FED right now. I think they will kind of

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<v Speaker 3>adhere more towards rate cuts, even Powell. I mean, that's

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<v Speaker 3>just one vote, So I don't think it's gonna be

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<v Speaker 3>you know, one vote that's gonna If it does, Trump's

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<v Speaker 3>gonna be a very angry. But I don't think one

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<v Speaker 3>vote's gonna matter here.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, here's the thing right now.

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<v Speaker 1>If you've got a left lean FED or a right

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<v Speaker 1>leaning FED, and Trump gets his way with what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>right now, which is continued price increase on the pump,

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<v Speaker 1>you've got situations right now in the Middle East continue.

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<v Speaker 2>To put the FED really at bay, at least with

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<v Speaker 2>Kevin Worsh going in.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the real question is is do you think

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<v Speaker 1>we'll get a FED rate cut when worsh comes in?

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<v Speaker 3>Not right away, definitely, not right away. I think we

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<v Speaker 3>need oil to come down. I think we're gonna see

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<v Speaker 3>some deflation, Paul, That's what I think we're gonna see.

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<v Speaker 3>I think we're gona see everything come down just a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit, Get a little bit of deflation and inflation

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<v Speaker 3>going down. Then towards end of summer, let's say September

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<v Speaker 3>into quarter four, maybe just in time for midterms August, September, October,

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<v Speaker 3>you get one or two rate cuts, and you've got

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<v Speaker 3>potential to keep the Senate if you're Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, let's go to this right here, because you've got

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<v Speaker 1>the Senate Banking Committee voted thirteen to eleven advancing the

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<v Speaker 1>nomination for Warsh. Yeah, this is in that means it's

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<v Speaker 1>out of the way. Next up is Clarity, so we

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<v Speaker 1>hope yep. So the likelihood of Clarity pushing price right

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<v Speaker 1>now on bitcoin after a dipping three days here at

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<v Speaker 1>the Bitcoin conference, Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you think is next here? Mike, get Clarity

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<v Speaker 2>goes through it. Let's go, Clarity goes through it. Clarity,

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<v Speaker 2>I think you know.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't follow with that clostly, but my view is

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<v Speaker 3>that it would be very strategic if I were Trump,

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<v Speaker 3>if I were the Republican September October, if we can

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<v Speaker 3>get that just before midterms so people still remember when

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<v Speaker 3>they're in the voting booth.

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<v Speaker 2>If you pass it right now, people need to forget.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you want to Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>But if it goes that late, though, Evan, don't you

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<v Speaker 1>run the risk of losing that vote.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, it could go either way. They just don't

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<v Speaker 2>get it to the floor.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it could go either way. It's hard to say.

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<v Speaker 3>I would remain optimistic. I think we need a few

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<v Speaker 3>months though.

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<v Speaker 2>I think you're.

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<v Speaker 3>Gonna see things come down. Then you're gonna see more

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<v Speaker 3>clarity on the Clarity towards the end of this summer.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, So you got Brent Crude now breaking one

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<v Speaker 1>twenty a barrel.

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<v Speaker 2>This is happening right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Yep.

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<v Speaker 2>All right.

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<v Speaker 1>If you go to your chart on oil and you

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<v Speaker 1>look at this whipsaw that we've been playing back and forth.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll talk about the bitcoin price here in a second,

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<v Speaker 1>we will get to the XRP price as well of

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<v Speaker 1>where it's playing out.

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<v Speaker 2>We're gonna cover eth as well. But back to oil, brick.

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<v Speaker 1>Crude right now, one twenty barrel, first time since June

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<v Speaker 1>of twenty twenty two.

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<v Speaker 2>What does this do right now for risk assets?

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<v Speaker 3>When you look at oil, I think we're I think

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's gonna come down. You're hitting a major,

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<v Speaker 3>major trend line, as you can see right here, this area,

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<v Speaker 3>this area back.

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<v Speaker 2>Here, you feel oil is coming down, I think it will.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's gonna bounce off this one twenty.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's gonna reject. Yeah, I think it's gonna

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<v Speaker 3>reject from this general area that we're hitting right here.

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<v Speaker 3>I think we're gonna come down with everything else. I

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<v Speaker 3>think s P five hundred is gonna come down a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit, your Nasdaq Bitcoin, just a little bit oil

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<v Speaker 3>comes down, then that's enough of a reason to potentially

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<v Speaker 3>at one or two ray huts you know later this summer.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know you you compare that and you look

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<v Speaker 1>at this right here. Let me share my screen with

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<v Speaker 1>you guys, so you guys can see it. And that

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<v Speaker 1>is right here. Here's the uh, this is all happening

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<v Speaker 1>right now. Okay, the brink crew at one twenty thirty

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<v Speaker 1>year olds thirty year yields at five percent them you're

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<v Speaker 1>sitting on ten year guilt yields at five percent, and

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<v Speaker 1>the yen at one sixty.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Yeah, it's this looks at a little.

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<v Speaker 1>Dicey right now. When you see these kinds of market numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>Compare that to the bitcoin chart where bitcoin is right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Even though we're recording us at the XRP event, Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>happened right before this. While the Bitcoin event was going on,

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin was dropping here. We are trading right now literally

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<v Speaker 1>as we record, let's find out we're at seventy six,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're back up a little bit. Where do you

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<v Speaker 1>think bitcoin goes from here?

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<v Speaker 3>So when we look at our bitcoin chart right now,

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<v Speaker 3>you see these gap t R size here, that's a

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<v Speaker 3>pretty bearish sign. Again, I don't think it's going to

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<v Speaker 3>be that catastrophic. I think we're gonna come down to

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<v Speaker 3>seventy two K, and then eventually in the summer, maybe

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<v Speaker 3>June somewhere like that, sixty five k. That's the big

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<v Speaker 3>thing there, just a major point. It's an elongated accumulation phase,

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<v Speaker 3>elongated crab market. And what generally always happens here if

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<v Speaker 3>we look at our weekly we didn't quite hit our

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<v Speaker 3>two hundred weekly SMA just yet, but I would kind

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<v Speaker 3>of fathom here that we may hit it right around,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, a couple more months here, maybe June, maybe

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<v Speaker 3>July sixty three k for a higher low.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, higher low, Okay, yeah, I see where.

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<v Speaker 3>That's what I think is going to ask.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, And you think the timing here is late summer.

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<v Speaker 3>It could be quicker, you know, June, anywhere between June

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<v Speaker 3>and August. I think, yeah, how clarity plays, how quickly

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<v Speaker 3>things happen. And I think that your oil is going

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<v Speaker 3>to come down to I think your yields are going

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<v Speaker 3>to come down to and everything's going to come down

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<v Speaker 3>just a little bit, just all right.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So let's look at ethereum from there, because this

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<v Speaker 1>is the other indicator right now. Ethereum is going to

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<v Speaker 1>benefit from if clarity goes through. It also could hit

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a wall if we don't get clarity.

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<v Speaker 2>So what would be your window for an entry right

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<v Speaker 2>now on eth?

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<v Speaker 3>I think that eth, you know, you're hitting a huge

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<v Speaker 3>point is you can see right here in your weekly

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<v Speaker 3>just a huge, huge point when we zoom out even more.

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<v Speaker 3>Is just a major trend line for years, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think you're going to retest it if Bitcoin retests the

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<v Speaker 3>mid to those sixties. Yeah, this is right at you know,

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<v Speaker 3>you guessed a two thousand huge psychological area and I

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<v Speaker 3>think as long as you hold that, that's going to

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<v Speaker 3>be pretty good right here. So in terms of eth,

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<v Speaker 3>next couple months potentially bearish, but huge area at two thousand,

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<v Speaker 3>and then if you look at Eth versus Bitcoin, this

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<v Speaker 3>is a huge area that we want to hold. My

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<v Speaker 3>base case is that you will hold this area these

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<v Speaker 3>lows from February and March, and then you could jump

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<v Speaker 3>from there, especially with clarity, with other good things happening,

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<v Speaker 3>and then into the end of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Jumping up all right, Evan, So when you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the bitcoin ETH chart right now, yep, the rejection that

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<v Speaker 1>we could see coming off of Bitcoin, we play this

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<v Speaker 1>into because I'm worried about clarity having a big impact

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<v Speaker 1>on ETH in the short term because I think I

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<v Speaker 1>know your long term position on eight. Where would you

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<v Speaker 1>play this right now Bitcoin versus eight for a summer.

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<v Speaker 3>By Yeah, I think that. You know, if I had

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<v Speaker 3>to choose right now, I still would lean more towards Eth.

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<v Speaker 3>But there are there's a minor concern. I think we're

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<v Speaker 3>gonna make a higher low here if you look at

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<v Speaker 3>Eth versus Bitcoin, and as long as we hold these

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<v Speaker 3>lows from February March, I think there's a strong case

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<v Speaker 3>to be made. But I would potentially bail on that

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<v Speaker 3>if this does lose these lows.

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<v Speaker 2>Where would it need to lose for you to dump

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<v Speaker 2>out of that?

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<v Speaker 3>I would say the lows. If you lose the lows

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<v Speaker 3>from February, as you can see the lows right right

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<v Speaker 3>here from February, it's the day February fifteenth.

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<v Speaker 2>If you lose that, that would be concerning it. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>what about eight price prediction end of year? End of

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<v Speaker 2>the year.

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<v Speaker 3>So when we look at the EATH chart, I think

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<v Speaker 3>you're going to retest this and then if Bitcoin goes

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<v Speaker 3>up to my price fiction for bitcoin, friend of yours

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<v Speaker 3>around ninety k Eth, I mean it could be twenty

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<v Speaker 3>seven hundred. Man, you know it could be by end

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<v Speaker 3>a year later. This at twenty seven hundred, sometimes quarter four,

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<v Speaker 3>that'd be.

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<v Speaker 2>Up quite a bit.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you look at it sitting at twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>right now, as we're recording opportunity right now, where is

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<v Speaker 1>the best opportunity for a portfolio. If we look at

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<v Speaker 1>the star wars right now, the top five, let's go

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<v Speaker 1>with Solana, XRP, Ethereum, Bitcoin, I need to buy three of.

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<v Speaker 3>Those right now, I would go. I would say Eth

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<v Speaker 3>would be the number one most attractive. Number two is

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<v Speaker 3>definitely XRP. I'm really been looking at XRP. XRPS hitting

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<v Speaker 3>a big air against Bitcoin, as you can see right here.

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<v Speaker 3>So if we can get some momentum, I would be

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<v Speaker 3>really bullish and XRP. If you look at XRP versus Eth,

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<v Speaker 3>you know we're trying to compare on what's better. It

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<v Speaker 3>can bounce here. This is a big point. I may

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<v Speaker 3>give it a week or two. I just want to

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<v Speaker 3>see if you can hold this major area. I want

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit more momentum. But XRP out of all those,

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<v Speaker 3>is very very attractive, right now interesting. I just want

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<v Speaker 3>some candles to confirm first.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, absolutely, and I think the key thing as we

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<v Speaker 1>are here at the x RP of Vegas event, one

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<v Speaker 1>of the things that continues to strike home with me

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<v Speaker 1>is the strength of this community. Yeah, and maybe that's

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<v Speaker 1>why we're seeing it hold up in these charts where

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen a lot of a lot of crypto in general,

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<v Speaker 1>we have some struggle points.

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<v Speaker 2>So anyway, we're gonna get into all that and more. Guys.

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<v Speaker 2>Make sure, of course, you guys know what to do.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're not following Evan although over on YouTube, make

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<v Speaker 1>sure and hit Evan Aldough out there and we will

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<v Speaker 1>catch you guys later.

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<v Speaker 2>Take out

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<v Speaker 3>No no nod.