Speaker 1: All right, so welcome back in guys. We are going
Speaker 1: to dive into where the market stands today.
Speaker 2: A lot is happening. We're recording this here.
Speaker 1: In Vegas at the XRP Vegas event, and of course
Speaker 1: joining me is mister Evan.
Speaker 2: Although great to be with you here always here we
Speaker 2: are in person.
Speaker 1: We're hanging out with all these great people, and what
Speaker 1: an amazing show. We got Brad gerling House, David Schwartz
Speaker 1: on stage just now amazing in general. But at the
Speaker 1: same time we've got the FED chair changeover occurring.
Speaker 2: So you look at this right here, you've got the
Speaker 2: FED chair near turned. The US inflation. This is what
Speaker 2: the new FED is going to be facing.
Speaker 1: So near term US inflation expectations now have risen. You
Speaker 1: also have the situation of the PC inflation going up
Speaker 1: to three and a half percent. You're also dealing with
Speaker 1: the Middle East situation. You've got clarity brewing. And then
Speaker 1: you've got the situation now brew with what could be
Speaker 1: a job reduction around like collars.
Speaker 2: So these are the two factors that the FED hits. Yep,
Speaker 2: Kevin Warsh, welcome aboard. What do you think about that?
Speaker 3: I think you know it aligns with some people hate
Speaker 3: on this, but it aligns with the typical kind of
Speaker 3: sell and may go away that kind of thing. But
Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be that bad. I
Speaker 3: think we just need things to come down just a
Speaker 3: little bit, Nasdad to come down maybe five percent or something,
Speaker 3: Bitcoin to maybe come back to the mid sixties. That's enough, fear,
Speaker 3: That's enough to get these numbers down, and then hopefully
Speaker 3: we recover into quarter three, quarter four and we see
Speaker 3: one or two rate cuts potentially. So I'm more optimistic,
Speaker 3: but I think we do you think do you.
Speaker 1: Think Howell is going to ruin Trump's parade on rate
Speaker 1: cuts if he says I'm staying around for a little
Speaker 1: bit longer, which takes away one of the governors, that
Speaker 1: would be a Trump loaded fed.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 3: I don't know. If it's enough, you have a very
Speaker 3: divided FED right now. I think they will kind of
Speaker 3: adhere more towards rate cuts, even Powell. I mean, that's
Speaker 3: just one vote, So I don't think it's gonna be
Speaker 3: you know, one vote that's gonna If it does, Trump's
Speaker 3: gonna be a very angry. But I don't think one
Speaker 3: vote's gonna matter here.
Speaker 2: Well, here's the thing right now.
Speaker 1: If you've got a left lean FED or a right
Speaker 1: leaning FED, and Trump gets his way with what's happening
Speaker 1: right now, which is continued price increase on the pump,
Speaker 1: you've got situations right now in the Middle East continue.
Speaker 2: To put the FED really at bay, at least with
Speaker 2: Kevin Worsh going in.
Speaker 1: I think the real question is is do you think
Speaker 1: we'll get a FED rate cut when worsh comes in?
Speaker 3: Not right away, definitely, not right away. I think we
Speaker 3: need oil to come down. I think we're gonna see
Speaker 3: some deflation, Paul, That's what I think we're gonna see.
Speaker 3: I think we're gona see everything come down just a
Speaker 3: little bit, Get a little bit of deflation and inflation
Speaker 3: going down. Then towards end of summer, let's say September
Speaker 3: into quarter four, maybe just in time for midterms August, September, October,
Speaker 3: you get one or two rate cuts, and you've got
Speaker 3: potential to keep the Senate if you're Trump.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to this right here, because you've got
Speaker 1: the Senate Banking Committee voted thirteen to eleven advancing the
Speaker 1: nomination for Warsh. Yeah, this is in that means it's
Speaker 1: out of the way. Next up is Clarity, so we
Speaker 1: hope yep. So the likelihood of Clarity pushing price right
Speaker 1: now on bitcoin after a dipping three days here at
Speaker 1: the Bitcoin conference, Yeah.
Speaker 2: What do you think is next here? Mike, get Clarity
Speaker 2: goes through it. Let's go, Clarity goes through it. Clarity,
Speaker 2: I think you know.
Speaker 3: I don't follow with that clostly, but my view is
Speaker 3: that it would be very strategic if I were Trump,
Speaker 3: if I were the Republican September October, if we can
Speaker 3: get that just before midterms so people still remember when
Speaker 3: they're in the voting booth.
Speaker 2: If you pass it right now, people need to forget.
Speaker 2: Do you want to Yeah?
Speaker 1: But if it goes that late, though, Evan, don't you
Speaker 1: run the risk of losing that vote.
Speaker 2: I mean, it could go either way. They just don't
Speaker 2: get it to the floor.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it could go either way. It's hard to say.
Speaker 3: I would remain optimistic. I think we need a few
Speaker 3: months though.
Speaker 2: I think you're.
Speaker 3: Gonna see things come down. Then you're gonna see more
Speaker 3: clarity on the Clarity towards the end of this summer.
Speaker 1: All right, So you got Brent Crude now breaking one
Speaker 1: twenty a barrel.
Speaker 2: This is happening right now.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: If you go to your chart on oil and you
Speaker 1: look at this whipsaw that we've been playing back and forth.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about the bitcoin price here in a second,
Speaker 1: we will get to the XRP price as well of
Speaker 1: where it's playing out.
Speaker 2: We're gonna cover eth as well. But back to oil, brick.
Speaker 1: Crude right now, one twenty barrel, first time since June
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2: What does this do right now for risk assets?
Speaker 3: When you look at oil, I think we're I think
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna come down. You're hitting a major,
Speaker 3: major trend line, as you can see right here, this area,
Speaker 3: this area back.
Speaker 2: Here, you feel oil is coming down, I think it will.
Speaker 2: So it's gonna bounce off this one twenty.
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna reject. Yeah, I think it's gonna
Speaker 3: reject from this general area that we're hitting right here.
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna come down with everything else. I
Speaker 3: think s P five hundred is gonna come down a
Speaker 3: little bit, your Nasdaq Bitcoin, just a little bit oil
Speaker 3: comes down, then that's enough of a reason to potentially
Speaker 3: at one or two ray huts you know later this summer.
Speaker 1: But you know you you compare that and you look
Speaker 1: at this right here. Let me share my screen with
Speaker 1: you guys, so you guys can see it. And that
Speaker 1: is right here. Here's the uh, this is all happening
Speaker 1: right now. Okay, the brink crew at one twenty thirty
Speaker 1: year olds thirty year yields at five percent them you're
Speaker 1: sitting on ten year guilt yields at five percent, and
Speaker 1: the yen at one sixty.
Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, it's this looks at a little.
Speaker 1: Dicey right now. When you see these kinds of market numbers.
Speaker 1: Compare that to the bitcoin chart where bitcoin is right now.
Speaker 1: Even though we're recording us at the XRP event, Bitcoin
Speaker 1: happened right before this. While the Bitcoin event was going on,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin was dropping here. We are trading right now literally
Speaker 1: as we record, let's find out we're at seventy six,
Speaker 1: so we're back up a little bit. Where do you
Speaker 1: think bitcoin goes from here?
Speaker 3: So when we look at our bitcoin chart right now,
Speaker 3: you see these gap t R size here, that's a
Speaker 3: pretty bearish sign. Again, I don't think it's going to
Speaker 3: be that catastrophic. I think we're gonna come down to
Speaker 3: seventy two K, and then eventually in the summer, maybe
Speaker 3: June somewhere like that, sixty five k. That's the big
Speaker 3: thing there, just a major point. It's an elongated accumulation phase,
Speaker 3: elongated crab market. And what generally always happens here if
Speaker 3: we look at our weekly we didn't quite hit our
Speaker 3: two hundred weekly SMA just yet, but I would kind
Speaker 3: of fathom here that we may hit it right around,
Speaker 3: you know, a couple more months here, maybe June, maybe
Speaker 3: July sixty three k for a higher low.
Speaker 2: Okay, higher low, Okay, yeah, I see where.
Speaker 3: That's what I think is going to ask.
Speaker 2: All right, And you think the timing here is late summer.
Speaker 3: It could be quicker, you know, June, anywhere between June
Speaker 3: and August. I think, yeah, how clarity plays, how quickly
Speaker 3: things happen. And I think that your oil is going
Speaker 3: to come down to I think your yields are going
Speaker 3: to come down to and everything's going to come down
Speaker 3: just a little bit, just all right.
Speaker 1: Okay, So let's look at ethereum from there, because this
Speaker 1: is the other indicator right now. Ethereum is going to
Speaker 1: benefit from if clarity goes through. It also could hit
Speaker 1: a little bit of a wall if we don't get clarity.
Speaker 2: So what would be your window for an entry right
Speaker 2: now on eth?
Speaker 3: I think that eth, you know, you're hitting a huge
Speaker 3: point is you can see right here in your weekly
Speaker 3: just a huge, huge point when we zoom out even more.
Speaker 3: Is just a major trend line for years, and I
Speaker 3: think you're going to retest it if Bitcoin retests the
Speaker 3: mid to those sixties. Yeah, this is right at you know,
Speaker 3: you guessed a two thousand huge psychological area and I
Speaker 3: think as long as you hold that, that's going to
Speaker 3: be pretty good right here. So in terms of eth,
Speaker 3: next couple months potentially bearish, but huge area at two thousand,
Speaker 3: and then if you look at Eth versus Bitcoin, this
Speaker 3: is a huge area that we want to hold. My
Speaker 3: base case is that you will hold this area these
Speaker 3: lows from February and March, and then you could jump
Speaker 3: from there, especially with clarity, with other good things happening,
Speaker 3: and then into the end of the year.
Speaker 1: Jumping up all right, Evan, So when you look at
Speaker 1: the bitcoin ETH chart right now, yep, the rejection that
Speaker 1: we could see coming off of Bitcoin, we play this
Speaker 1: into because I'm worried about clarity having a big impact
Speaker 1: on ETH in the short term because I think I
Speaker 1: know your long term position on eight. Where would you
Speaker 1: play this right now Bitcoin versus eight for a summer.
Speaker 3: By Yeah, I think that. You know, if I had
Speaker 3: to choose right now, I still would lean more towards Eth.
Speaker 3: But there are there's a minor concern. I think we're
Speaker 3: gonna make a higher low here if you look at
Speaker 3: Eth versus Bitcoin, and as long as we hold these
Speaker 3: lows from February March, I think there's a strong case
Speaker 3: to be made. But I would potentially bail on that
Speaker 3: if this does lose these lows.
Speaker 2: Where would it need to lose for you to dump
Speaker 2: out of that?
Speaker 3: I would say the lows. If you lose the lows
Speaker 3: from February, as you can see the lows right right
Speaker 3: here from February, it's the day February fifteenth.
Speaker 2: If you lose that, that would be concerning it. Yeah,
Speaker 2: what about eight price prediction end of year? End of
Speaker 2: the year.
Speaker 3: So when we look at the EATH chart, I think
Speaker 3: you're going to retest this and then if Bitcoin goes
Speaker 3: up to my price fiction for bitcoin, friend of yours
Speaker 3: around ninety k Eth, I mean it could be twenty
Speaker 3: seven hundred. Man, you know it could be by end
Speaker 3: a year later. This at twenty seven hundred, sometimes quarter four,
Speaker 3: that'd be.
Speaker 2: Up quite a bit.
Speaker 1: I mean, you look at it sitting at twenty two
Speaker 1: right now, as we're recording opportunity right now, where is
Speaker 1: the best opportunity for a portfolio. If we look at
Speaker 1: the star wars right now, the top five, let's go
Speaker 1: with Solana, XRP, Ethereum, Bitcoin, I need to buy three of.
Speaker 3: Those right now, I would go. I would say Eth
Speaker 3: would be the number one most attractive. Number two is
Speaker 3: definitely XRP. I'm really been looking at XRP. XRPS hitting
Speaker 3: a big air against Bitcoin, as you can see right here.
Speaker 3: So if we can get some momentum, I would be
Speaker 3: really bullish and XRP. If you look at XRP versus Eth,
Speaker 3: you know we're trying to compare on what's better. It
Speaker 3: can bounce here. This is a big point. I may
Speaker 3: give it a week or two. I just want to
Speaker 3: see if you can hold this major area. I want
Speaker 3: a little bit more momentum. But XRP out of all those,
Speaker 3: is very very attractive, right now interesting. I just want
Speaker 3: some candles to confirm first.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, and I think the key thing as we
Speaker 1: are here at the x RP of Vegas event, one
Speaker 1: of the things that continues to strike home with me
Speaker 1: is the strength of this community. Yeah, and maybe that's
Speaker 1: why we're seeing it hold up in these charts where
Speaker 1: we've seen a lot of a lot of crypto in general,
Speaker 1: we have some struggle points.
Speaker 2: So anyway, we're gonna get into all that and more. Guys.
Speaker 2: Make sure, of course, you guys know what to do.
Speaker 1: If you're not following Evan although over on YouTube, make
Speaker 1: sure and hit Evan Aldough out there and we will
Speaker 1: catch you guys later.
Speaker 2: Take out
Speaker 3: No no nod.