1
00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:04,839
Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in Adam trigger here. It is Monday.

2
00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:09,640
It's time for Total Bases. I got on screen and

3
00:00:09,679 --> 00:00:11,480
Brian's like, are you at the Strip club right now?

4
00:00:11,759 --> 00:00:13,960
And I was like, no, this is the sports book.

5
00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:15,599
You can kind of see it behind me. This is

6
00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:19,039
where I'll be tonight, So quick promo if you are

7
00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:22,519
in town or feel like driving to town. Turning Stone

8
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,559
Resort Casino for Verona, New York. It's central New York,

9
00:00:25,719 --> 00:00:27,679
very easy to get to from just about anywhere in

10
00:00:27,719 --> 00:00:31,800
the Northeast. And I will be here at a Bills

11
00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:33,359
watch party.

12
00:00:34,359 --> 00:00:35,920
Speaker 2: But we also it's Bills.

13
00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:37,799
Speaker 1: We have two Monday night football games tonight, so you're

14
00:00:37,799 --> 00:00:39,479
gonna have the Bills game, which will be the feature

15
00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,439
the Commander's Bears, and then we've got two baseball games,

16
00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,479
which we are going to talk about. So the baseball

17
00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,479
starts at six and our five I'm sorry, five PM,

18
00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,359
and I will be here all night, so come down.

19
00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:52,359
Speaker 2: I'll buy you a drink.

20
00:00:52,439 --> 00:00:55,719
Speaker 1: It is the screen that you see right now really

21
00:00:55,759 --> 00:00:59,240
doesn't know justice. It's incredible in here. It really does

22
00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,479
feel like you're more to nightclub than a sportsbook. But

23
00:01:02,039 --> 00:01:02,759
there it's.

24
00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:03,799
Speaker 2: Three hundred and sixty degrees.

25
00:01:04,079 --> 00:01:06,959
Speaker 1: There is a million TVs and there's gonna be some

26
00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,719
good specials tonight and I'm here, so come hang out

27
00:01:09,719 --> 00:01:12,000
with me if you are in the area.

28
00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:16,480
Speaker 2: But we have some so man, we have we have

29
00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,760
two games to talk about today. But I want to go.

30
00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:22,920
Speaker 1: To you guys for some takeaways from the weekend because

31
00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,040
I think it's a good lead into the show. I've

32
00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:26,840
got one, but I'll start. I'll let Brian start and

33
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,680
then we'll go to Tokyo. Brandon, any takeaway from the

34
00:01:29,719 --> 00:01:33,640
weekend that you're gonna bring into the ALCS NLCS round.

35
00:01:35,079 --> 00:01:38,439
Speaker 3: For you guys, I'm gonna pull a TV yeah, and

36
00:01:38,439 --> 00:01:40,400
I'm gonna have a little bit of a bitch session.

37
00:01:41,159 --> 00:01:41,359
Speaker 4: Uh.

38
00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,200
Speaker 3: And it has nothing to do with any of us,

39
00:01:44,239 --> 00:01:48,640
any of our listeners. Has to do with Kelly. Kelly

40
00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,159
put out a tweet the other day she goes, I

41
00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,159
tried to watch one of these baseball games. I can't

42
00:01:53,159 --> 00:01:57,599
get into it. Baseball sucks. How can after watching these

43
00:01:57,599 --> 00:02:02,840
playoff games? How can any say that baseball sucks? This

44
00:02:02,879 --> 00:02:06,719
has been tremendous games. Whether it's high scoring games, low

45
00:02:06,799 --> 00:02:10,560
scoring games, whatever you want, it's been. You're on the

46
00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:12,680
edge of your seat. It's like going to a hockey game.

47
00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,080
If anybody's ever gone to a hockey game in person,

48
00:02:15,439 --> 00:02:17,840
you're on the edge of your seat the entire game.

49
00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,560
Baseball is that way. She could take her NFL or

50
00:02:22,599 --> 00:02:26,120
whatever she likes. I don't know, but come on, Kelly,

51
00:02:26,719 --> 00:02:29,960
you're doing it for stubbornness. At this point. There's no

52
00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,360
way you can not like baseball. Love Kelly, but this

53
00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,120
is a bad decision on her part, and I need

54
00:02:36,159 --> 00:02:38,039
to take her to a game one day and I'll

55
00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:39,840
just fly out take her wherever she wants to go.

56
00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:41,800
I let her sit there and watch a game. That's

57
00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:46,360
actually important.

58
00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:50,159
Speaker 4: If we took the baseball cappers at Wager Tuck versus

59
00:02:50,199 --> 00:02:54,000
the football cappers at Wager Talk, we would destroy them.

60
00:02:54,319 --> 00:02:57,960
Baseball is by far the best sport to bet in

61
00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,479
sports betting and win money. Football is almost impossible to

62
00:03:02,479 --> 00:03:05,120
win money. I'm sorry, but baseball is a much better

63
00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,759
sport to bet, So I'm going to counter Kelly on

64
00:03:07,759 --> 00:03:10,719
that point. So when you're sports betting, you have to

65
00:03:10,759 --> 00:03:13,840
separate entertainment from making a profit.

66
00:03:17,039 --> 00:03:17,400
Speaker 2: TB.

67
00:03:17,439 --> 00:03:19,680
Speaker 1: We we lost you there. I think we lost your

68
00:03:19,719 --> 00:03:22,719
mic I here, Yeah, you're back.

69
00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:28,840
Speaker 3: Now you're gone, you buy some American equipment on.

70
00:03:28,759 --> 00:03:35,439
Speaker 1: Your first of all, I would say Japanese equipment. I got,

71
00:03:40,439 --> 00:03:43,280
so while TV fixes his Mike, I'm just gonna jump in.

72
00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:44,280
Speaker 2: I knew so.

73
00:03:45,039 --> 00:03:48,639
Speaker 1: Kelly was in Detroit at the home office and she

74
00:03:48,759 --> 00:03:52,039
went to a Tiger's Red Sox game that went like

75
00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,479
twelve innings and I think Hobby Bias had a walk

76
00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,599
off home run, and I was just like, if that

77
00:03:56,759 --> 00:03:59,120
can't get you into baseball, I don't.

78
00:03:59,159 --> 00:04:00,159
Speaker 2: I don't know what will.

79
00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,520
Speaker 1: But Brian, you teed up the point I wanted to

80
00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:05,560
make exactly, and then we'll go to TV on once

81
00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,680
as Mike is fixed, I said at the beginning when

82
00:04:08,719 --> 00:04:11,479
we started doing the playoff total basis shows, I said,

83
00:04:12,319 --> 00:04:16,199
you know, I used to I used to not be

84
00:04:16,319 --> 00:04:19,360
as inclined to bet the playoffs because I think it's

85
00:04:19,439 --> 00:04:21,839
I always thought it was harder to win in the playoffs,

86
00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:23,319
and we had kind of talked about that for years,

87
00:04:23,399 --> 00:04:25,040
and it used to and I think it used to be.

88
00:04:25,639 --> 00:04:29,560
But this weekend was a perfect example. I'm sitting there

89
00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,439
Friday night, I'm watching Tigers Mariners go fifteen games, fifteen innings,

90
00:04:33,879 --> 00:04:36,959
and I'm watching a bunch of people tweet on social

91
00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,560
media that I know haven't really watched baseball all season,

92
00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:42,839
and they're I'm seeing memes of like the Blue Jays

93
00:04:42,879 --> 00:04:45,360
being excited that this game is going fifteen innings, and

94
00:04:45,399 --> 00:04:48,079
it's like there's one meme that's like, you know, you've

95
00:04:48,079 --> 00:04:51,040
got two guys boxing and the Blue Jays are just

96
00:04:51,079 --> 00:04:54,000
sitting over in the corner, chilling, waiting for the game

97
00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,639
to be over. And then the betting lines come out

98
00:04:56,639 --> 00:04:58,879
for Game one, and I was like, oh wow, Like

99
00:04:58,959 --> 00:05:03,560
the average person betting the playoffs thinks that that's a

100
00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,959
big deal, right, thinks that playing a game after an

101
00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,240
off day, that that fifteen innings was a big deal.

102
00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:10,480
Speaker 2: And I'm sitting there thinking like.

103
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,360
Speaker 1: That that's just it, that that's wrong, right, Like we

104
00:05:15,399 --> 00:05:17,800
see games go extra innings all the time. During one

105
00:05:17,879 --> 00:05:19,800
hundred and sixty two game season. These two teams, these

106
00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:21,759
teams come out the next day and play no problem.

107
00:05:22,199 --> 00:05:24,120
I'm over here, like did they make him walk from

108
00:05:24,199 --> 00:05:26,879
Seattle to Toronto? I don't understand why that they The

109
00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,360
thought process was that the Mariners were not going to

110
00:05:29,399 --> 00:05:31,879
be ready for Game one, and then the line comes

111
00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:34,519
out and the Blue Jays are getting up like this game,

112
00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:37,839
like the Mariners are going to have no chance. I'm

113
00:05:37,879 --> 00:05:39,720
actually kicking myself that I didn't make that a five

114
00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:41,720
percent play yesterday I made Mariners plus one and a

115
00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:43,720
half a four percent play, and in a hindsight, it

116
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:45,519
should have been a five. That was the best spot

117
00:05:45,519 --> 00:05:49,040
of the whole playoffs to jump in and oppose this

118
00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,199
like like going back to your point, this this very

119
00:05:52,639 --> 00:05:54,639
all of a sudden. You're getting some public money, you're

120
00:05:54,639 --> 00:05:57,360
getting uninformed money in the market, and the playoffs might

121
00:05:57,399 --> 00:05:59,759
be the best time to make money in Major League Baseball.

122
00:05:59,759 --> 00:06:01,959
So that it's my little mini rant TV. Do we

123
00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:08,759
have volume back on your microphone yet we still don't

124
00:06:08,759 --> 00:06:10,879
have I will say, go ahead, Brian.

125
00:06:11,319 --> 00:06:13,279
Speaker 3: I had to put I had to put something for

126
00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:17,240
baseball out for my clients, So I put out a

127
00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,879
free play and I said the line was too high.

128
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,040
I said, but do I really want to bet a

129
00:06:24,439 --> 00:06:27,600
team that just went fifteen innings and it wasn't your

130
00:06:27,639 --> 00:06:30,600
normal fifteen innings strike I will slightly disagree with This

131
00:06:31,079 --> 00:06:36,160
isn't regular season fifteen innings. This was every pitch was

132
00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,519
was so key. It's a stressful fifteen innings. I said,

133
00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:42,160
you know, like they talk about him bringing in relievers.

134
00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:45,360
I go, yeah, he had a stressful you know, fifteen

135
00:06:45,399 --> 00:06:48,720
pitchers yesterday as opposed to a non stressful twenty five

136
00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:49,240
or whatever.

137
00:06:49,879 --> 00:06:52,839
Speaker 1: Don't you think, Brian that the day off negates a

138
00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:55,319
lot of that though it wouldn't have been different if

139
00:06:55,319 --> 00:06:56,680
it was twenty four hours later.

140
00:06:59,079 --> 00:07:02,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, it would, but because of the situation and they

141
00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:07,040
didn't even leave their city until later on, there was

142
00:07:07,079 --> 00:07:09,879
there were some problems with her with the aircraft or whatever.

143
00:07:10,439 --> 00:07:13,800
So yeah, it's but I use I used the favorite

144
00:07:13,839 --> 00:07:15,560
as a free player story. I didn't want anything to

145
00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,920
do with the game for clients, But yeah, I was

146
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,199
very oppressed by the way Seattle come out and play

147
00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,360
that game. I think it was more Seattle didn't look good.

148
00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,920
Toronto looked bad. Toronto should have been more prepared for

149
00:07:27,959 --> 00:07:28,360
that game.

150
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:32,000
Speaker 2: Oh he's back, Go ahead, TV.

151
00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,639
Speaker 4: Hey, what's up? Baseball, by far is a better sport

152
00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:38,399
to bet if you're trying to make money rather than football.

153
00:07:38,439 --> 00:07:42,560
Football is very difficult to make money, So for entertainment,

154
00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,399
football is great, but for winning money, baseball is better.

155
00:07:45,439 --> 00:07:46,639
So tell Kelly that.

156
00:07:48,439 --> 00:07:51,800
Speaker 3: College football is easier to win on the NFL anymore.

157
00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:53,199
Speaker 2: I don't know how anymore.

158
00:07:53,279 --> 00:07:55,800
Speaker 1: Okay, I think if I think, if you're betting the FCS,

159
00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:57,800
it is FBS is basically pro.

160
00:07:59,079 --> 00:08:02,519
Speaker 4: I have a small I'm getting tired of managers pulling

161
00:08:03,079 --> 00:08:06,240
starting pitchers at sixty pitches when they're not in trouble

162
00:08:06,319 --> 00:08:09,240
yet when you leave When you leave a pitcher in

163
00:08:09,279 --> 00:08:12,639
for ninety pitches regularly in the regular season, and then

164
00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,360
all of a sudden in the postseason you pull him

165
00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,600
at sixty pitches, it makes absolutely no sense. There's no

166
00:08:18,639 --> 00:08:23,079
reason to do that, no reason. I think. I think

167
00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:26,040
Gaussman was pulled way too early yesterday. I realized there

168
00:08:26,079 --> 00:08:27,800
was a guy on first and second with no outs,

169
00:08:27,839 --> 00:08:31,519
but you pulled him too early, and as soon as

170
00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:33,840
you pulled him out, boom, there goes the game. So

171
00:08:34,759 --> 00:08:39,159
I mean, I'm getting tired of managers making stupid decisions.

172
00:08:39,399 --> 00:08:43,039
It's really annoying me. Actually, when you leave a guy

173
00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,840
in for ninety pitches every start in the regular season,

174
00:08:45,919 --> 00:08:48,159
why would you pull him at sixty in the playoffs?

175
00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:52,000
It just makes no sense. It boggles my mind. Honestly,

176
00:08:52,279 --> 00:08:57,639
I would disagree a little bit lost So obviously I'm

177
00:08:57,720 --> 00:08:59,200
right because they lost the game.

178
00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,600
Speaker 3: Well, you're not right. That was one one spot on

179
00:09:02,639 --> 00:09:06,440
your stats. I will say that in the playoffs, every

180
00:09:06,519 --> 00:09:09,679
every every bat means more. So if you've got a

181
00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,759
guy who goes through two, he can go through two.

182
00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,279
Uh look at just look at his his numbers the

183
00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,240
third time through the order. If he was about to

184
00:09:18,279 --> 00:09:20,679
face somebody the third time, that's when you want to

185
00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,159
pull him. I would not let anybody unless it's your

186
00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:26,320
elite pitchers in baseball, and as good as Gosman is,

187
00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:29,840
I wouldn't consider him elite pitcher. But that's just fine.

188
00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:34,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, but yeah, look at the teams that are winning,

189
00:09:34,799 --> 00:09:36,639
and look how long they leave their pictures in. That's

190
00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:37,399
all I'm gonna say.

191
00:09:37,919 --> 00:09:39,519
Speaker 1: That's a good point TV, and I'm going to go

192
00:09:39,519 --> 00:09:41,759
to Brian here and it'll be our segue into our

193
00:09:41,799 --> 00:09:44,559
first game. So I will say just one quick comment

194
00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:46,679
because I've got to, I guess take take a little

195
00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,879
bit of an l here. I have been highly complimentary

196
00:09:49,919 --> 00:09:52,399
or a J. Hinch saying that he's the best manager.

197
00:09:52,519 --> 00:09:54,240
I think he did too much in that.

198
00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:58,440
Speaker 4: Big mistake, big mistake mistakes, mistakes.

199
00:09:58,919 --> 00:10:01,159
Speaker 2: I think he overman. I think it was the reason

200
00:10:01,159 --> 00:10:04,240
the Tigers lost. I gotta sayt let.

201
00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:06,519
Speaker 4: Your players win the game. You can't insert yourself in

202
00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,600
the game. You just can't do it. Let the players

203
00:10:09,919 --> 00:10:10,279
run it.

204
00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:11,360
Speaker 2: As good as anyone though.

205
00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,919
Speaker 1: But he I do think that I do think there

206
00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:16,320
was a couple of spots that he would like to

207
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,200
have back. I'll go to We'll go to Brian, and

208
00:10:19,639 --> 00:10:22,360
we'll start this game. So first game today is Game

209
00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,279
two Mariner's Blue Jays. Now the J's are down one

210
00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,000
nothing in the series. One thing I will credit Dan

211
00:10:28,039 --> 00:10:30,200
Wilson with, and this kind of goes You've got to

212
00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,799
be a complimentary of this TV is the fact that

213
00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,279
he seems to stick to his guns in terms of

214
00:10:36,399 --> 00:10:39,200
like managing the games like he manages the regular season,

215
00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,600
maybe more so than anyone like he he's pretty much

216
00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:46,600
letting his starting pitcher navigate trouble. It's their start, and

217
00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:48,240
then he'll go to the bullpen the same way he

218
00:10:48,279 --> 00:10:50,960
would in a game in August. Now, Brian Leonard is

219
00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:54,600
that because he's got probably as established of a rotation,

220
00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,519
Mariners probably have more starting pitching than just about anyone.

221
00:10:58,679 --> 00:10:59,519
Speaker 2: So maybe that's it.

222
00:10:59,519 --> 00:11:01,960
Speaker 1: But that's something thing I've noticed with Wilson today you've

223
00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:05,360
got Logan Gilbert. You're probably gonna see that again. He's

224
00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:07,360
probably gonna go deep again here. How how are you

225
00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,120
looking at Mariners Gates?

226
00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a lot helpful when you've got the

227
00:11:12,879 --> 00:11:15,840
best pitchers in baseball on your team. It didn't work

228
00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,080
for the Mets. The Mets have a really good rotation too,

229
00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:22,080
But Brian wu is now on the roster, and he

230
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:25,559
threw uh through some pictures just through in the bullpen.

231
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:27,960
He's now on the roster, so he gives them another

232
00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,039
starter just as good, if not better than the ones

233
00:11:32,039 --> 00:11:35,960
that they've been using. I would expect this to possibly

234
00:11:36,039 --> 00:11:38,919
be You'd have to think this may be a slight

235
00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:42,679
letdown spot for Seattle. You know, it's it's like traveling

236
00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:47,000
with the with the the long distances in the flight,

237
00:11:47,159 --> 00:11:49,000
you know, the flight, they're affecting you, that kind of thing.

238
00:11:49,639 --> 00:11:51,519
So it may be the second day that it happens.

239
00:11:51,519 --> 00:11:54,399
But still you've got Logan Gilbert and you're getting them

240
00:11:54,519 --> 00:11:59,399
as a nice hunderdog here against Savage. We're getting Toronto

241
00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,799
in the one thirty five range, and you're looking at

242
00:12:02,799 --> 00:12:04,639
a seven and a half to the over or an

243
00:12:04,639 --> 00:12:07,159
eight to the under. I do want to start off

244
00:12:07,159 --> 00:12:11,200
we're talking about Tregy Savage because his numbers look great.

245
00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:12,919
He's got a three point two on you're a four

246
00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,720
point zero six expected. The whip is high at one

247
00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,240
point four to three, and we've talked about how dominant

248
00:12:19,279 --> 00:12:22,200
he can be. But when you take a look at

249
00:12:22,279 --> 00:12:25,279
granted he's only pitch fourteen innings in the majors, Uh,

250
00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,559
there is some things that I'm a little bit worried about.

251
00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:30,960
But if you take a look at his exact pitches,

252
00:12:31,399 --> 00:12:33,679
he basically throws three pitches, the four seemer at the

253
00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:37,080
slider and the split finger. The split finger has been

254
00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,519
by far his most effective. His expected WOLBA is two

255
00:12:40,639 --> 00:12:44,679
hundred on a split finger, four oh nine on the slider,

256
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,559
three point fifty four on the four seemer, and he

257
00:12:48,799 --> 00:12:54,159
throws that split finger against lefties forty seven pitches in

258
00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:58,440
the playoffs since he's since he's been been with the

259
00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:03,559
with the team, forty seven split fingers versus lefties, sixteen

260
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,080
versus righties. So the first thing you have to do

261
00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:08,840
is take a look at who Toronto is going to

262
00:13:08,879 --> 00:13:14,200
throw up there as their lefty batters, and right now

263
00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:19,320
they're normal lefties are Lucas Barger, Jim Andez and var Show.

264
00:13:20,159 --> 00:13:24,960
Now that would mean the chances are hundred, Palaffa and

265
00:13:25,039 --> 00:13:28,039
David Schneider will be in this game. I think that's

266
00:13:28,039 --> 00:13:31,159
a step back. Lucas is a really good hitter. Barger,

267
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:33,519
although he's not playing as well now as he did

268
00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,600
earlier in the season. He's a downgrade there. But taking

269
00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:40,679
him out unfortunately him and As hasn't done much and

270
00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,480
they rarely take him out, So we'll see what happens.

271
00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,519
But that would leave Varshow And I don't think they

272
00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,000
take Varshow out of the lineup. But those are some

273
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,879
bats that that's gonna hurt Toronto a little bit by

274
00:13:51,919 --> 00:13:55,519
making that change. But still, Yasavae has been a guy

275
00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:59,559
who has had a lot of success. But a lot

276
00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,320
of people thinking he is the way about this game.

277
00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,279
I'm not sure he is the way. The Seattle team's

278
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,720
playing with Gilbert. You know Gilbert the last two seasons.

279
00:14:08,759 --> 00:14:10,960
Despite the ra's a three point two to three yes

280
00:14:11,039 --> 00:14:12,960
last year, in three point four to four this year,

281
00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,799
he's got a fifteen and eighteen record. It's it's it's

282
00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,399
the it's the many, the many schemes for Pittsburgh, but

283
00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,279
he's been terrific. Comes in with a three point h

284
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:26,000
two expected DRA, three point four to four ERA and

285
00:14:26,039 --> 00:14:29,200
a one point oh three whip. But this average ex

286
00:14:29,279 --> 00:14:32,600
VELOSSI and he's in the tenth percentile barrel rate forty

287
00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:35,200
five percent ale harder rate forty So you got two

288
00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,480
guys that can actually be hit a little bit here

289
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,639
now the line, As I said, seven and a half

290
00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,440
to the over, I kind of think there's gonna be

291
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:48,159
some runs in this game. You've got really good hitters

292
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:52,159
Toronto and Seattle. Both teams have played very well. It's

293
00:14:52,159 --> 00:14:54,240
been great on the road for they're hitting Toronto and

294
00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,279
Hall has been very good. And we're getting that total

295
00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,799
at seven and a half to the twenty. That's the

296
00:14:58,799 --> 00:15:00,799
way I would play this. I would the game over

297
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,879
if I had to play it, And yeah, we'll see

298
00:15:04,879 --> 00:15:05,960
what you guys have to say about that.

299
00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, for the most part, I would agree with that.

300
00:15:10,039 --> 00:15:12,440
Let me point out something to actually back that up

301
00:15:13,399 --> 00:15:15,559
at first glance. I told you in the last show,

302
00:15:15,639 --> 00:15:17,919
like when I'm doing my capping, what I do is

303
00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,600
I look at the matchups. I kind of get an

304
00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:21,519
image in my head of what I think the line

305
00:15:21,559 --> 00:15:25,360
should be and where I think it everything will fall in,

306
00:15:26,759 --> 00:15:29,120
maybe project a score in my head, and then I

307
00:15:29,159 --> 00:15:31,200
go into the numbers and see if the numbers back

308
00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:34,399
up my original instinct. I looked at these numbers and

309
00:15:34,399 --> 00:15:36,840
I thought, you know, you've got a trusted veteran in

310
00:15:36,879 --> 00:15:39,440
Gilbert against a rookie, and you savage who has very

311
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:43,200
little experience in a high whip. Like Brian said, I thought, wow,

312
00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,000
Seattle should be favored in this one. And then I

313
00:15:46,039 --> 00:15:49,399
look and it's the Jays minus one thirty or one twenty.

314
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,159
That kind of surprised me. But then I dug a

315
00:15:53,159 --> 00:15:56,000
little deeper, and I understand why. Now if you look

316
00:15:56,039 --> 00:15:58,480
at Gilbert, this is one of his best seasons ever,

317
00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:01,320
He's he's I think he's pitching a little over his

318
00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:05,480
head this season, and his numbers against these batters not

319
00:16:05,519 --> 00:16:08,519
real good. He's got nine a three h nine batting

320
00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,720
average against in ninety four at bats and an eight

321
00:16:11,799 --> 00:16:14,480
eighty six OPS. And I've always said seven to fifty

322
00:16:14,559 --> 00:16:18,480
is around the Mendoza line. Who's getting to him? Gladdie

323
00:16:19,679 --> 00:16:24,039
six for fifteen, Kinner for Fala or however he says

324
00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:30,039
his name five for fifteen Kirk the little caveman midget

325
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:34,759
guy four for twelve. I mean, there's a lot of

326
00:16:34,759 --> 00:16:38,279
guys on this team that can get to him. And

327
00:16:38,759 --> 00:16:40,559
I think Toronto we're going to see some runs here.

328
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,720
I agree with Brian. I think we'll see some runs

329
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:47,600
from Toronto. There is something to be said between being

330
00:16:47,679 --> 00:16:51,200
a veteran and being a younger guy, because the younger guys,

331
00:16:51,639 --> 00:16:54,679
the pressure does get to them. Sometimes they're not used

332
00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:58,000
to high pressure situations, where a guy like Gilbert might

333
00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,159
be a little more used to a pressure situation. And however,

334
00:17:01,759 --> 00:17:05,039
I think I've seen this many times and I can't

335
00:17:05,039 --> 00:17:09,519
really put I can't really think of a concrete formula

336
00:17:09,599 --> 00:17:15,960
to express this. But you know, when you expect a

337
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,119
team to be tired, sometimes they come out in game

338
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:23,319
one and just explode and then the the what's the

339
00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:26,480
word I'm looking for, the tiredness, what's the word I'm

340
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:30,799
looking for? Fatigue? The fatigue. The fatigue comes out, I

341
00:17:30,799 --> 00:17:33,559
think in Japanese something the fatigue comes out in game two,

342
00:17:33,839 --> 00:17:35,759
and I think we might see a little fatigue here

343
00:17:35,759 --> 00:17:40,079
from Seattle. They've played what twenty four innings in four days,

344
00:17:40,599 --> 00:17:42,119
So if the fatigue is going to come out it

345
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,480
didn't come out yesterday, but I think it's going to

346
00:17:44,519 --> 00:17:47,279
show up eventually and this could be the game. That's

347
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:48,160
just how I see.

348
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:49,039
Speaker 2: It, TB.

349
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,880
Speaker 1: Before I get into my breakdown, do you also think

350
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,359
that not only fatigue, but maybe is there an exhale

351
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,720
that's possible here? Not only are they a little bit tired,

352
00:17:57,759 --> 00:18:00,799
but they went, they had to go. They're saying, hey,

353
00:18:00,839 --> 00:18:02,720
if we can get one more in business, they get

354
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:03,359
the first one.

355
00:18:03,599 --> 00:18:04,799
Speaker 2: Would you be worried about that?

356
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,440
Speaker 1: Like maybe it's like now we get to exhale finally

357
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:08,240
from Friday night.

358
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,000
Speaker 4: Sometimes when especially if you're gonna play two games on

359
00:18:12,039 --> 00:18:14,079
the road and you take the first one, you know

360
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,240
you've got to split already. Uh, they're gonna play three

361
00:18:17,319 --> 00:18:19,160
though here, aren't they? Or are they playing two?

362
00:18:19,559 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 2: So two three?

363
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,880
Speaker 4: Yeah? If it's two, yeah, it's two three two I believe?

364
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:31,559
Is that right, Brian? Well, check odd Logic page only

365
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:32,759
the NBA went.

366
00:18:32,599 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 2: To that two to one one deal.

367
00:18:35,559 --> 00:18:38,559
Speaker 4: Okay, So David's staying in the comments. Our commentors are

368
00:18:38,559 --> 00:18:41,759
are are the smartest audience in all of wager talk,

369
00:18:41,799 --> 00:18:44,359
and they're saying three two three, So, uh, they've got

370
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,680
to split already on the road. So yeah, I do believe.

371
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,279
Speaker 1: In the next hill, I had to get my I

372
00:18:51,319 --> 00:18:53,000
had to try, I had to like get my thought

373
00:18:53,079 --> 00:18:55,119
back to this. Last night, I'm in a discord trying

374
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,880
to explain the KBO playoffs to someone and it's like

375
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,759
I'm realizing I'm typing out a whole paragraph because they

376
00:19:02,839 --> 00:19:03,240
like a.

377
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,839
Speaker 4: Pyramid, right, and you beat him, you go up, you

378
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,880
beat him, you go up in every time, every time

379
00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,319
the top team has a one to nothing advantage before

380
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:13,599
it starts.

381
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 2: No, I think it's a great format.

382
00:19:16,039 --> 00:19:19,319
Speaker 1: And then your best team, your winner, goes straight to

383
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,200
their version of the World Series. I think that's great.

384
00:19:21,759 --> 00:19:24,079
Back to this game. So a couple thoughts here I'm

385
00:19:24,079 --> 00:19:26,960
going to kind of throw out. So first thought was

386
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,240
when I saw the line, this game's priced like yesterday's

387
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:31,359
game should have been priced.

388
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,519
Speaker 2: In my opinion, I think the books have corrected the

389
00:19:34,599 --> 00:19:37,920
overstatement from the first game. Now I do agree with Brian.

390
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,440
Speaker 1: I still think even at this number, there's still a

391
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,960
little Mariner's value in there, but it's not so pronounced

392
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:48,039
in my opinion like yesterday, where I'm likely to play it. Now,

393
00:19:48,039 --> 00:19:50,400
A couple things that caught my eye Logan Gilbert's outs

394
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,480
prop most places is like fifteen or fourteen and a half.

395
00:19:54,519 --> 00:19:57,079
I think some of the sites that have it up

396
00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,640
right now are juiced fourteen and a half, which says

397
00:20:00,039 --> 00:20:02,680
that they don't think he's gonna go five innings, which

398
00:20:02,799 --> 00:20:05,519
if you get if he goes five and you have

399
00:20:05,559 --> 00:20:07,559
the over fourteen and a half, you've hit your bet.

400
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,559
I would disagree with that, And I'm just gonna go

401
00:20:10,599 --> 00:20:13,000
back to how Dan Wilson has managed his whole playoffs.

402
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,119
He's putting his starter out there and it's their start. Now,

403
00:20:16,319 --> 00:20:19,000
I understand he came in through thirty four pitches and they,

404
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,640
whereas Brian was pointing out, they weren't your typical It's

405
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:24,880
not the same as throwing thirty four pitches in the

406
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,480
side session on your throw day, right like he was

407
00:20:27,519 --> 00:20:30,480
in throwing thirty four high leverage pitches in Game five

408
00:20:30,519 --> 00:20:33,599
of the Alds. But I don't I still don't think

409
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:38,160
it's gonna have it's going to deter Dan Wilson.

410
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:39,839
Speaker 2: From keeping Logan Gilbert in this game.

411
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,079
Speaker 1: If he's throwing the ball, well, now, maybe maybe he

412
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,079
doesn't go seven innings, but I certainly think five is

413
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,680
the target. Like if you're Dan Wilson, you're looking at

414
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,680
this game. I think five from Gilbert would be like

415
00:20:50,799 --> 00:20:53,400
almost like the minimum that he would like. The only

416
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,079
way he's coming out before that is if he gets

417
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,920
into so much trouble that they feel like they have

418
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,000
to take him out, whereas if he doesn't have it.

419
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,440
But some of these guys too, Like I don't think

420
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:07,319
the short rest is you know, super like, Like we

421
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,400
saw Bryce Miller on a day a short rest, and

422
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,640
he looked as good as he's looked all season, So

423
00:21:12,319 --> 00:21:14,079
I wouldn't read too much into that. I think the

424
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,319
books have made a little bit of an over adjustment

425
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:21,440
there to think that you should be like they're basically saying, Okay,

426
00:21:21,559 --> 00:21:23,160
Gilbert goes five and you cash.

427
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:24,799
Speaker 2: He doesn't go five and you don't cash.

428
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:26,880
Speaker 1: I gotta like the over fourteen and a half outs

429
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,640
for Gilbert because it's still your ace, Logan, Gilbert, He's

430
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:31,279
still your ace.

431
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 2: One.

432
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 1: Two, I don't know how much you can really count

433
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,680
on Brian Wu. I think you might see him out

434
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:37,839
of the bullpen. I don't know if you're going to

435
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,440
see him start a game in this series. And three,

436
00:21:40,799 --> 00:21:44,240
I'm just watching how Dan Wilson manages games and saying

437
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,400
he's only going to his pen if he's in trouble.

438
00:21:46,599 --> 00:21:48,640
So I think that over fourteen and a half outs

439
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,359
is a good bet as far as the Savage is

440
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,240
concerned here, I actually don't mind this matchup for him

441
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,319
because the Mariners, they still are a team that I

442
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,160
think sort of waits for the long ball a little bit.

443
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 2: They don't really string hits together. I'm not saying that.

444
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 1: They can't have patient at that's what if you If

445
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,279
you Savage a wild, they'll draw a walk or two.

446
00:22:06,759 --> 00:22:09,720
But it's it's unlikely that they're just gonna be taking

447
00:22:09,759 --> 00:22:10,759
him deep left and right.

448
00:22:10,759 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 2: And I agree with you, Tokyo Brandon. That split finger.

449
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:17,319
Speaker 1: It is as unhittable of a pitch as there is.

450
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, nasty.

451
00:22:22,759 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 1: And to go to David David Edgington in the in

452
00:22:25,039 --> 00:22:27,200
the chat, that's I kind of answered this question. I

453
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,880
meant to pull it up on the screen. I I

454
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:31,799
think it's his it's his start. I think it's his

455
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:36,519
normal start. Most of Gilbert's starts, he's gone five six innings,

456
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,759
and even though he's been maybe not as economical with

457
00:22:40,799 --> 00:22:43,640
his pitches, he's running a lot accounts like full lately,

458
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,799
he seems to make the pitch, doesn't really walk many guys.

459
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:48,680
He'll get into three to two and then he'll throw

460
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,720
something that you can't lay off of and and the

461
00:22:50,839 --> 00:22:51,960
Jays will swing the bat.

462
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 2: I mean they can.

463
00:22:53,039 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 1: They will come out and swing a little bit, and

464
00:22:55,559 --> 00:22:57,799
I think they could be inclined to swing a little

465
00:22:57,799 --> 00:23:01,279
bit more after really doing nothing offensively last night after

466
00:23:01,319 --> 00:23:03,480
the Sprinter home run. So that would be my play

467
00:23:03,519 --> 00:23:05,720
for this game. I'll go I'll go Gilbert over fourteen

468
00:23:05,759 --> 00:23:07,880
and a half outs. It's currently minus won forty a

469
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,119
lot of places. I think that is a good right.

470
00:23:13,559 --> 00:23:16,559
Speaker 4: If I may check in the first inning if he's

471
00:23:16,599 --> 00:23:19,839
locating that split change, because if he's locating it, he

472
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,880
could go easily go five innings here. I don't see

473
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,519
why they would pull him out. He's a young guy,

474
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,880
and like Adam said in previous shows, in the minor leagues,

475
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,799
he was going like six seven innings regularly, right, So

476
00:23:34,319 --> 00:23:36,599
he can be he can be a he can take

477
00:23:36,599 --> 00:23:39,359
the weight on his shoulders if he's locating that pitch.

478
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,079
If you see him walking guys in the first inning

479
00:23:42,079 --> 00:23:44,599
and he's not in his commands, not there, look for

480
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,200
an early hook, because I don't think they're gonna wait

481
00:23:47,279 --> 00:23:48,680
for him to explode.

482
00:23:50,799 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 3: I do think, if I remember correctly, Gilbert has gone

483
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,839
like six or eight starts walking more than one guy

484
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,920
in the game. Do they have his walk prop up

485
00:23:58,960 --> 00:23:59,559
there right now?

486
00:24:00,559 --> 00:24:03,079
Speaker 1: Well, Brian, I'll let TV look for it. He's good

487
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,119
at finding the walk props. I'm gonna let him look

488
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,319
for that. That's interesting because he is he has gotten

489
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:13,319
himself into an incredible number of three to two counts

490
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,440
without walking guys. So do you think, with the magnitude

491
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:19,039
of this game, and the fact that it's the Blue

492
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,519
Jays a very good line of one to nine, that

493
00:24:21,759 --> 00:24:23,920
maybe the walks over it is it? Would it be

494
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,000
walks over you look at because so many of those

495
00:24:26,039 --> 00:24:28,640
counts are three two? Are you thinking his command is

496
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:30,799
just that good? I mean when logan gilberts On, he

497
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,079
is an ace. I mean he would be in the

498
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,599
Cy Young conversation if he didn't get it, if he

499
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:35,920
wasn't injured earlier this year.

500
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:37,839
Speaker 2: So I'm curious to see how you're looking at that.

501
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:45,880
Speaker 3: No, I would look towards the walks under it was one, two, three, four, five, Yeah,

502
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:50,279
Six out of his last eight games, he's averaging one walk.

503
00:24:50,319 --> 00:24:54,160
He did walk two batters against Cleaveland. Tim and Dust

504
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,279
take a lot of pitches. So yeah, I would look

505
00:24:57,279 --> 00:25:00,480
forward to go under because he's gonna stay in this

506
00:25:00,519 --> 00:25:03,240
game as long as he possibly can, and he's got

507
00:25:03,279 --> 00:25:05,160
the stuff. I mean, it's if you take a look

508
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:09,880
at his chase rights seventy six percentile, he can strike

509
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,720
you out. Walk right doesn't walk any better. So he's

510
00:25:12,759 --> 00:25:14,160
the guy that can go out of there. There's some

511
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,640
of these other guys that they have to come into

512
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,559
the strike zone. I don't trust him in that situation.

513
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,000
But with the with the chase right that he has

514
00:25:23,079 --> 00:25:26,119
and strikeout rates, I'm not concerned if he has to

515
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,839
go throw one right down the middle. And there was

516
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,880
actually an article put out the other day that throwing

517
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:33,799
the ball right down the middle is the best way

518
00:25:33,799 --> 00:25:35,839
to get people out because nobody's ever expecting it.

519
00:25:36,319 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 1: So I see his So his walks prop right now

520
00:25:39,559 --> 00:25:42,440
is a juiced under one and a half. And that

521
00:25:42,559 --> 00:25:44,400
tells me the books do not think he's going to

522
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,559
be in this game for his full allotment of pitches,

523
00:25:47,559 --> 00:25:50,319
which I actually disagree with. So that's that's really interesting

524
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,240
because if you if you subscribe to the theory that

525
00:25:53,279 --> 00:25:56,160
Gilbert pitched two winnings on Friday, maybe he's not going

526
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,079
as deep as he typically would. Then I think your

527
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,119
walks prop he has some legs, right, because if he's

528
00:26:02,599 --> 00:26:05,160
only in there for three four innings, I don't think

529
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:06,839
he's I think he's gonna go at least five. But

530
00:26:06,839 --> 00:26:08,599
if he's only in there for three four innings, you

531
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,319
have to like having a walk.

532
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 2: To work with.

533
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 3: What's what's the jeers on that?

534
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, like one fifty.

535
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,759
Speaker 4: It looks like you're right, Brian, one, two, three, four, five, six,

536
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,559
seven starts he's walked one or less.

537
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,319
Speaker 2: And b Rad, I know what site you're looking at,

538
00:26:25,319 --> 00:26:27,599
and there is a minus one ninety five out there.

539
00:26:27,599 --> 00:26:29,799
Speaker 1: But I do think you could probably did these props.

540
00:26:29,799 --> 00:26:31,440
You gotta shop around. I think you can probably do

541
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,400
better than that. All right, good discussion on that one.

542
00:26:36,279 --> 00:26:38,680
Let's head to the National League. The Brewers end up

543
00:26:38,799 --> 00:26:40,839
end up getting it done in Game five and we

544
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,319
get the series that I don't know, I feel like

545
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,880
this is the series that most thought it would be,

546
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:49,400
at least going into the NLDS round. I don't think

547
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,720
there's a surprise here. Dodgers, I think have been the

548
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,200
best team in the playoffs thus far. Brewers are the

549
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,039
best team this season. Tokyo Brandon will be invited to

550
00:26:57,079 --> 00:26:59,359
the parade in Milwaukee when they win.

551
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 2: He turned in their season.

552
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,559
Speaker 1: Around with one comment, turn their season around. We're headed

553
00:27:04,599 --> 00:27:07,880
to Milwaukee here, it's Dodgers Brewers Game one. Kick us off,

554
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:09,480
Ryan Leonard, how you looking at this series?

555
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:10,079
Speaker 4: Okay?

556
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 3: Do we know who's going to start from Milwaukee?

557
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 4: I heard yea.

558
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,599
Speaker 3: At this point, they're gonna it's gonna be more of

559
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:22,720
a bullpen game anyway.

560
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,079
Speaker 4: It's gonna be either priest or.

561
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 3: The veteran. The veteran yeahh no, no, no.

562
00:27:35,559 --> 00:27:35,759
Speaker 4: Name.

563
00:27:36,799 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 3: I think Watana comes out here. He's better.

564
00:27:39,559 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: So so I'm just just quickly.

565
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,839
Speaker 1: One of the beat writers for the for the Brewers said,

566
00:27:44,079 --> 00:27:48,200
you're you're probably looking at an opener. Quintana and Priester

567
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,559
as like the the plan for the first six to

568
00:27:51,599 --> 00:27:52,519
seven innings of the game.

569
00:27:53,599 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 2: So do what you will with that.

570
00:27:55,279 --> 00:27:57,759
Speaker 3: Okay, I think that's a pretty good combination. All right,

571
00:27:57,799 --> 00:28:00,480
We're looking at Smell right here, the lefty. That's the

572
00:28:01,039 --> 00:28:04,720
basically the Malwaukee Brewers entire team. We've got the Dodgers

573
00:28:05,079 --> 00:28:07,440
about a one forty eight favorite here seven and a

574
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,880
half to the total, and I'm with you, TV, I

575
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,839
wanted Milwaukee to make it. I'm a bag for Cleveland.

576
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,839
I've always been an underdog kind of guy. I'm very

577
00:28:16,839 --> 00:28:19,359
happy with whoever comes out of the American League. Seattle

578
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,000
in Toronto haven't been there in a while, and Milwaukee

579
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:24,839
is a team that's a lot of fun to watch.

580
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,119
But that said, if you go back to before the

581
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:32,119
playoffs started, both TV and I agree or excuse me,

582
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,200
trigger and I agree that the Dodgers were the team

583
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,640
to beat and I still think they are. Snell's on

584
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,319
the mounse. Smell's the guy that he will walk a

585
00:28:40,319 --> 00:28:43,920
few betters, but he walks them when they don't need

586
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,039
to be walked, or he needs to just get him

587
00:28:46,039 --> 00:28:47,279
out of the way and go to the next guy.

588
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,880
It's been very good in that in that regard, and

589
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,279
if you take a look at what the Dodgers have

590
00:28:54,359 --> 00:28:58,559
done in this with Snell on the mound, he's been

591
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,920
very impressive this year. He's had he's had injury problems

592
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,079
the last few years, which really hurts you only had

593
00:29:04,079 --> 00:29:06,480
eleven starts this year after only twenty last year, but

594
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,200
they've been good starts two point three five year, a

595
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,839
one point twenty six whip he's expected to ra three

596
00:29:12,839 --> 00:29:16,000
point two to oh. Everything is clearly in the red

597
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,400
on his stackass page, except for, like I said, the

598
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,799
walk percentage eighteen percent. He throws the four samer forty

599
00:29:21,839 --> 00:29:24,359
four percent of the time. Being a lefty, he's two

600
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,960
miles an hour better than a traditional lefty in that regard,

601
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,240
throws four pitches. Can't dislike Blake Snell and the way

602
00:29:31,279 --> 00:29:35,079
this bullpen is playing right now. This is something that

603
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,319
it's going to be tough to beat, regardless of who

604
00:29:38,359 --> 00:29:41,880
pitches for Milwaukee. I like that setup if they bring

605
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,519
in the guy to go the first inning and then

606
00:29:44,559 --> 00:29:46,720
come in with the veteran and then priest who's having

607
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,000
a terrific year that I believe finally suffered a loss,

608
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,440
you know, in one of his starts. So, but they've

609
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:57,119
been very good all season long. Do I want to

610
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,559
play under seven and a half? Here? If I take

611
00:30:00,599 --> 00:30:03,880
a look at the park factors today, we're looking at

612
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:08,039
Toronto's basically minus three percent of the runs and in

613
00:30:08,119 --> 00:30:10,759
here Milwaukee minus eight percent of the runs. I would

614
00:30:10,799 --> 00:30:12,400
look to the Audre. I think it's going to be

615
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:17,160
a really good pitching matchup here. And while I like

616
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,079
the over in the first game, I kind of like

617
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:19,960
the under in this one.

618
00:30:21,759 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 4: I can't really argue with that. If you look at

619
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,559
Snell's numbers against the Brewers. I know it's a small

620
00:30:27,559 --> 00:30:31,000
sample size, only thirty three at bats, but wow, a

621
00:30:31,079 --> 00:30:33,559
one fifty two average against in a four to seventy

622
00:30:33,599 --> 00:30:37,880
five OPS pretty amazing stuff. The problem is, like Brian said,

623
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,920
he does walk guys. He's got five walks he's averaging.

624
00:30:42,359 --> 00:30:46,200
That comes out to maybe about three walks per start,

625
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,279
So you can expect him to walk maybe two guys here,

626
00:30:49,319 --> 00:30:52,720
maybe three guys. But he has gotten out of trouble

627
00:30:52,759 --> 00:30:56,359
when he's putting guys on base, especially against these guys.

628
00:30:57,359 --> 00:31:00,920
He's dominated them. So on other stat that kind of

629
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,880
contradicts that is Snell on the road has like a

630
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,559
four to seven ERA, So which is which? Which comes

631
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,319
up bigger here? I always like the head to head matchups.

632
00:31:11,359 --> 00:31:14,880
I think it matters how he goes against these guys

633
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,759
because I look at baseball as kind of a one

634
00:31:16,799 --> 00:31:20,640
on one matchup pitcher against batter. In most cases, obviously

635
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,920
you have fielding and errors and all kinds of stuff

636
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:27,599
like that. Ask the New York Yankees. But I think

637
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,400
the under would be a way to go here, or

638
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:34,519
take whoever the underdog is and give them plus runs here,

639
00:31:34,559 --> 00:31:36,640
because I think I think we're looking at a tight

640
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:41,240
game the Brewers. You know, the Dodgers hit almost one

641
00:31:41,279 --> 00:31:43,440
hundred more home runs than the Brewers, but the Brewers

642
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:47,599
have more hits than the Dodgers. So it means the

643
00:31:47,599 --> 00:31:51,599
Brewers manufacture their runs and the Dodgers crank their runs out.

644
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,039
Hard to take an under with this Dodgers lineup, but

645
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,640
if there's any way to go, I think that's the

646
00:31:58,680 --> 00:31:59,160
way to go.

647
00:32:00,759 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta say I think the I think the

648
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,880
books got the pricing right on these two games, which

649
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,000
is which is not going to be uncommon in the playoffs.

650
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:10,880
I think we've kind of talked about that the entire

651
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,599
time with the playoffs here, very rarely are you going

652
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,599
to see a scenario like Game one, where, at least

653
00:32:16,599 --> 00:32:18,559
for me, I thought that that number was way off,

654
00:32:18,599 --> 00:32:20,359
and I thought it was because Game one of the

655
00:32:20,359 --> 00:32:23,119
Mariners Blue Jays, which I thought was because of how

656
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,359
the betting public was betting at these two are much

657
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,359
more in line with where I would have priced the game,

658
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,839
so I'm not I'm not really seeing any like number value,

659
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:36,720
line value in the full game, side or total. I

660
00:32:36,759 --> 00:32:38,880
do think, like I do think the Dodgers should be

661
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,200
favored here. I'll go back to what Brian was saying.

662
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,680
I think they're the best team, and getting Will Smith

663
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,680
back in the playoffs is huge. I think they're going

664
00:32:45,759 --> 00:32:48,319
to be the team to beat now. The Brewers certainly

665
00:32:48,319 --> 00:32:50,319
could do it. I think if I was going to

666
00:32:50,359 --> 00:32:52,359
bet the Brewers here, I think I would look at

667
00:32:52,359 --> 00:32:55,079
the first five. The reason for that is I think

668
00:32:55,079 --> 00:32:57,440
if you're going to get Snell, you typically have to

669
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:01,319
get him early. The only real issue I have with Snell, ever,

670
00:33:02,039 --> 00:33:06,039
is maybe he'll maybe walk a guy or two, and

671
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,519
it seems like if he's gonna give up a big hit,

672
00:33:08,559 --> 00:33:11,400
it's typically early in the game before he settles. In

673
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:16,039
almost anytime I've watched Blake Snell pitch this year, once

674
00:33:16,079 --> 00:33:18,319
you allow him to sort of find his groove, he's

675
00:33:18,559 --> 00:33:21,920
very tough to break through on. So right now you

676
00:33:22,359 --> 00:33:25,079
can get bruised plus a half run, minus one fifteen

677
00:33:25,119 --> 00:33:26,920
or minus one twenty A lot of places for the

678
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,759
first five. I'm with Brian, I don't mind the setup

679
00:33:30,799 --> 00:33:33,559
early in this game for Milwaukee if you're gonna get

680
00:33:33,599 --> 00:33:36,240
potentially I would have to think they'd like to use

681
00:33:36,279 --> 00:33:38,880
Ashby or like one of those openers, you know, to

682
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,799
try to go after Freeman Otani at the top. A

683
00:33:41,839 --> 00:33:44,000
lot of teams like to use that left the opener

684
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:48,279
against the Dodgers because it just gives him a better

685
00:33:48,359 --> 00:33:51,200
chance to get Otani and Freeman out that first time

686
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,720
through the order. So if I'm Pat Murphy, I think

687
00:33:53,759 --> 00:33:56,759
I'm gonna have Ashby open this game, and then I'll

688
00:33:56,799 --> 00:34:00,240
probably go Priester, and then I'll probably have Quintana in

689
00:34:00,279 --> 00:34:04,000
my back pocket for if a spot comes up where

690
00:34:04,359 --> 00:34:07,160
I feel like I need to go and have another

691
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,000
lefty come into the game. Again, I'm not saying that's

692
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:10,920
definitely how it's gonna go.

693
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,679
Speaker 2: He could go. He very well could go Quintana to

694
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:14,440
start here.

695
00:34:14,599 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 1: Because he's a veteran guy, and you know he'll he'll

696
00:34:17,039 --> 00:34:19,159
still get the matchup that he wants. Maybe he lets

697
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,440
Kintana go three or four, goes to a bullpen guy,

698
00:34:22,519 --> 00:34:24,760
goes to Priester, and then uses Ashby later in the game.

699
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,000
I'm really not sure. I don't think anyone is sure

700
00:34:27,159 --> 00:34:30,000
what he's gonna do. But the point is, I think

701
00:34:30,039 --> 00:34:32,039
there's ways for the Brewers to mix and match to

702
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,760
even this up early. And then if the Brewer is

703
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,480
a team that is scrappy, that can draw their walks

704
00:34:37,519 --> 00:34:40,960
and stuff that can steal bases, that's the other thing, Snell,

705
00:34:41,039 --> 00:34:42,320
you can get him with a walker too.

706
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 2: Early. Milwaukee's got a ton of team speed, and I wouldn't.

707
00:34:46,079 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 1: Be surprised if they tried to maybe scrape one across

708
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:52,000
early Manufacturer when steal a base, steal third, terranguves to

709
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:53,599
try to steal third if he can get the chance

710
00:34:53,639 --> 00:34:55,760
to do it. And then if you're sitting there and

711
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,599
one nothing and it's a tight game, I think you've

712
00:34:57,639 --> 00:34:59,800
got a pretty good bet with that. Brewers first five.

713
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 2: I think that the most mettable thing in this is

714
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,679
probably Brewis first five. I like the half run. I'll

715
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:07,360
go ahead, Brian.

716
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 3: To me, the biggest key that not a lot of

717
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:13,800
people have talked about in this is the Brewers liked

718
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,320
to around. The Brewers have a lot of speed. Who

719
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,920
is the catcher for the doggies? Smith? You don't run

720
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:23,599
on Smith? Smith is John. That's going to change the

721
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:28,039
entire trajectory of this series. Now Smith happens to be

722
00:35:28,079 --> 00:35:32,280
d H and Milwaukee will run like crazy. So pay

723
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,039
attention to when line who's going to be in the cutcher.

724
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 4: Their last game, Smith Smith picked off a guy at

725
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,039
second man. He threw it right on.

726
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,760
Speaker 3: It was a laser laser.

727
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 4: He's got a great arm, yeah, amazing. One thing about Otani,

728
00:35:49,599 --> 00:35:53,519
he's one I think one for thirteen or maybe even worse. Now.

729
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:56,079
He's ice cold in the playoffs, so he's doing his

730
00:35:56,119 --> 00:35:59,119
best A Rod impression in the playoffs. We'll see. I

731
00:35:59,159 --> 00:36:02,039
can't say Judge and anymore because Judge just cranked the

732
00:36:02,079 --> 00:36:04,559
ball this year in the playoffs for his first time

733
00:36:04,559 --> 00:36:07,840
in his career. But uh, Otani's ice cold, so he's

734
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,199
going to break out here or not. I kind of

735
00:36:11,199 --> 00:36:14,559
think he's not. But then again, when I bad mouthed people,

736
00:36:14,599 --> 00:36:16,599
look where the Brewers are now. So we'll see. But

737
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,800
someone in the comments said that Otani's hits runs RBI's

738
00:36:21,519 --> 00:36:25,480
prop was two and a half. I don't see him

739
00:36:25,519 --> 00:36:28,880
getting three hits runs RBIs, But I mean that might

740
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,840
be a good under for that one. If we're thinking

741
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:33,440
that the whole game is going to be an under

742
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:34,920
and Otani's ice cold right now.

743
00:36:36,559 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 1: Don Dixon, he says Milwaukee went three and over sol

744
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:42,079
A this year. They actually went six and oh Dodgers

745
00:36:42,159 --> 00:36:44,639
all six times. And it was it was within the

746
00:36:44,679 --> 00:36:48,039
span of a week or so. It was that stretch

747
00:36:48,119 --> 00:36:49,880
before the All Star break and then coming out of

748
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:53,000
the All Star break where the Dodgers looked very uninterested.

749
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:55,920
And now I would say that they're interested. So go

750
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,360
back around the horn, Brian. Do you put any stock

751
00:36:58,360 --> 00:36:59,960
into those six regular season meetings?

752
00:37:00,039 --> 00:37:00,760
Speaker 4: Oh, you have to.

753
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 3: I don't not because of the Dodgers. The Dodgers, as

754
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:07,920
we've said all the year long, they win the games

755
00:37:08,039 --> 00:37:11,159
they come in to play for, and they're so good

756
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:14,360
they could set games out a lot of times. It

757
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,239
does have some meaning in this one. I totally know

758
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,119
there is no meaning. In Milwaukee. Was the team playing

759
00:37:20,199 --> 00:37:23,480
the champions they wanted to. They're the team that was

760
00:37:23,519 --> 00:37:26,519
having the season where they wanted to show the show

761
00:37:26,599 --> 00:37:29,360
me season. It was much more important for them during

762
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,880
the regular season. Now the Dodgers know that if they lose,

763
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:36,199
they're out of the playoffs. It's a fully different ballgame.

764
00:37:36,639 --> 00:37:39,559
Speaker 4: On the one hand, it shows me that they're capable

765
00:37:39,559 --> 00:37:43,599
of beating this team number one. On the other hand,

766
00:37:44,559 --> 00:37:49,360
the Dodgers did not have Sasaki pitching closing games, and

767
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,079
they didn't have Will Smith at the time either, or

768
00:37:52,119 --> 00:37:54,360
did they. I think he was out at that time,

769
00:37:55,199 --> 00:37:58,880
So a couple couple factors there. But if you can

770
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:02,480
beat a team six games in a row, I don't

771
00:38:02,519 --> 00:38:05,440
think you can ignore that. So I think it shows

772
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:09,400
that they're capable of winning. So mentally it will give

773
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:11,639
him a little bit of a little bit of a

774
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:15,840
confidence I think, maybe, but maybe not. Maybe no factor

775
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:16,639
on the outcome, but.

776
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think that. Why would the Brewers

777
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,000
feel like they're not capable of winning. They were the

778
00:38:22,039 --> 00:38:24,599
bank basically the best team in the National League all

779
00:38:24,639 --> 00:38:27,079
year one and then two. Someone in the chat says,

780
00:38:27,079 --> 00:38:30,280
Will Smith's been listen. Will Smith's going to start. That's

781
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:32,760
a guarantee. The only thing we're talking about is whether

782
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,159
he's going to start at DH or behind the plate,

783
00:38:35,199 --> 00:38:37,639
because coming off injury, they're not going to start him

784
00:38:37,679 --> 00:38:40,639
every single game behind the plate. And of course this

785
00:38:40,679 --> 00:38:42,679
would be where you'd have to maybe make a decision

786
00:38:42,679 --> 00:38:43,800
because they got to play tomorrow.

787
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 2: As well. I'm with you, Brian.

788
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,760
Speaker 1: If if Will Smith is at the DH spot and

789
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:52,800
he's not behind the plate, that is a huge, huge

790
00:38:53,119 --> 00:38:56,880
advantage for Milwaukee because they can definitely run on vit

791
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:58,559
or whoever would be. I don't know who they're going

792
00:38:58,599 --> 00:39:00,719
to have back there, but it would be much much

793
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,320
more likely they can run, and that might be the

794
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:07,079
path to scraping a run across off snows. So we'll

795
00:39:07,119 --> 00:39:10,280
be interesting to see who they how the Dodgers line

796
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,599
up in this game. But Smith will definitely be in

797
00:39:12,599 --> 00:39:13,119
the lineup.

798
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:16,760
Speaker 4: And Milwaukee is a small ball team and they have

799
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:22,519
one elite base dealer and they have several decent ones,

800
00:39:22,559 --> 00:39:26,880
but they're masters at manufacturing runs. So Will Smith would

801
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:31,000
be a huge, huge difference. On his defense. That man,

802
00:39:31,039 --> 00:39:33,360
he's got a laser arm. That was amazing that throw

803
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:33,719
he made.

804
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:39,119
Speaker 1: David said Milwaukee look vulnerable against the Cubs, Like I

805
00:39:39,159 --> 00:39:41,519
feel like we're not giving the Cubs enough credit. I mean,

806
00:39:41,559 --> 00:39:43,760
the Cubs were very, very good team this year. Those

807
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:45,039
are two division rivals.

808
00:39:45,039 --> 00:39:48,119
Speaker 4: Like the series wins than the Dodgers, more wins than

809
00:39:48,159 --> 00:39:48,719
the Dodgers.

810
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:51,280
Speaker 1: I don't know why anyone would be surprised that that

811
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:55,519
was a competitive series that that really like went both ways.

812
00:39:55,559 --> 00:39:59,320
So again, maybe maybe the Brewers are a little undervalue.

813
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,679
Just in general, I think the Brewers are a really

814
00:40:01,679 --> 00:40:04,360
good baseball team. Like I'm with you on this, on

815
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,679
the thought process that the Dodgers are probably the best

816
00:40:06,679 --> 00:40:09,519
team of the four that are still left. But let's

817
00:40:09,519 --> 00:40:11,719
not sleep on the Brewers here. This is a very

818
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:15,880
capable team, arguably as complete of an offense as you're

819
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,199
going to find. Where they'll hit the ball at the ballpark,

820
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:22,840
they'll they'll steal bases, they'll play small ball. It should

821
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:25,320
be a very it should be a very competitive game, right,

822
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,599
I don't it's kind of tough. I think you can

823
00:40:27,639 --> 00:40:29,440
make a very good case for both sides here.

824
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 4: The Dodgers are not overrated. By the way, now.

825
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:36,639
Speaker 3: The Dodgers one favorite to win the series, even though

826
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,039
Milwaukee has the home advantage, tells who the Dodgers are

827
00:40:40,039 --> 00:40:43,559
the best team here? Uh TB did not do any

828
00:40:43,559 --> 00:40:46,239
promotions when we started, so I want to do a promotion.

829
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,480
I don't know. I think today's a special day in Canada.

830
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:53,880
I don't know. I don't remember what it is that.

831
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,199
Speaker 2: They're Thanksgiving is.

832
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,199
Speaker 3: Because they have some holidays. We don't have any United

833
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,320
States so I don't know much about it. But Canada

834
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:07,760
is hockey and there are hockey games starting in less

835
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:09,920
than three hours going all day long. If you're a

836
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:14,239
hockey fan, great day to be watching hockey. I put

837
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,000
out a five percent play in the NHL today, my

838
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:20,320
first five percent of the season and number one all

839
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:24,000
time in NHL net profit in hockey. Over at ways

840
00:41:24,039 --> 00:41:27,280
you talk and great card. I've got two plays up

841
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,519
right now for clients. I'll be doing a little bit more.

842
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,039
If I do put anything up in baseball, it's probably

843
00:41:32,039 --> 00:41:34,000
going to be the over in that Seattle Toronto game.

844
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:36,480
So save yourself some money. You don't need to buy

845
00:41:36,519 --> 00:41:39,679
that from me, and if you are interested in it,

846
00:41:40,039 --> 00:41:43,000
five percents there. In hockey, also, we talked a little

847
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,400
bit about college football. They do have that weekend Warriors package.

848
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,960
Last weekend was very successful for me. I'm an eleven

849
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,159
and three run in college football, so once they put

850
00:41:53,159 --> 00:41:56,519
that up, you can get nice savings on the weekend.

851
00:41:56,559 --> 00:41:58,880
If they do do that again this week, it's early.

852
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,480
I don't know what their promotion are. Keep in mind

853
00:42:01,559 --> 00:42:03,199
well that I always try to do something for the

854
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:05,440
weekend for football fans.

855
00:42:06,679 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 4: I have a couple of Major League Baseball plays up today,

856
00:42:10,559 --> 00:42:13,519
and I have a EuroLeague play up. Wager talk allows

857
00:42:13,599 --> 00:42:17,159
us to price our Major League Baseball plays at nine

858
00:42:17,199 --> 00:42:20,559
dollars aside from any five percent plays. Five percent plays

859
00:42:20,559 --> 00:42:22,840
a regular price, but you can get a four percent

860
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,840
play if one of us puts it out for nine bucks.

861
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:29,360
That's a normally twenty five dollars. So just take a

862
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,320
look at our page at wager talk dot com, and

863
00:42:31,599 --> 00:42:33,920
we usually put free plays out too, so click the

864
00:42:34,039 --> 00:42:37,199
free plays link at wager talk dot com and you

865
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:42,719
can see twenty cappers free plays all free play Bonanza.

866
00:42:43,599 --> 00:42:46,519
Originally I wanted to name this show Baseball Bonanza, but

867
00:42:46,639 --> 00:42:50,320
Adam came up with the name Total Bases, So Total Bases.

868
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,519
Speaker 2: It was less. It's less of amouthful.

869
00:42:56,519 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 4: I don't know why.

870
00:42:58,320 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 2: I just like it.

871
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:01,519
Speaker 3: Act was, why the hell am I doing this at

872
00:43:01,559 --> 00:43:02,800
six o'clock in the morning.

873
00:43:04,639 --> 00:43:05,639
Speaker 4: When I was in America?

874
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:10,199
Speaker 1: I felt that way too, Yeah, yeah, it's it's it's

875
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:13,599
earlier for you guys. I nine nine am Eastern is

876
00:43:13,639 --> 00:43:15,559
like the perfect time for the show. I probably have

877
00:43:15,599 --> 00:43:17,320
a hard time if I was doing this on on

878
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:18,920
Vegas time as well.

879
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:20,559
Speaker 2: That that's tough.

880
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 1: I always anytime I'm out visiting out there, it always,

881
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,079
it always messes me up. Being that early book of

882
00:43:26,199 --> 00:43:28,280
chewing the chat he's he does a lot of streaming.

883
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:32,400
To appreciate him, stop and buy uh and if again,

884
00:43:32,519 --> 00:43:34,480
I'll i'll I don't have a play up yet for tonight,

885
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:35,920
I will say this, I hit a I cast my

886
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:39,280
five percent play yesterday with the Arizona Cardinals in the NFL.

887
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:41,719
I'm on a really good NFL run, and with two

888
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:45,440
NFL games tonight, I may run it back with another

889
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:46,400
five percenter.

890
00:43:46,119 --> 00:43:47,039
Speaker 2: So keep an eye out on that.

891
00:43:47,679 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 1: I I don't know if I think if I have

892
00:43:49,599 --> 00:43:52,239
any MLB action tonight, I'll probably just post it on

893
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,599
my page for free. So make sure that you are

894
00:43:55,039 --> 00:43:57,920
always checking the wager talk website. We have a free

895
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,840
picks tab that list everyone that puts a free pick up.

896
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,480
It's it's right there all in order. We try to

897
00:44:03,519 --> 00:44:05,960
do it as many times a week as possible, so

898
00:44:06,159 --> 00:44:08,079
so check out the free picks tab at wager Talk.

899
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,199
And if you are in the area, if you are

900
00:44:10,639 --> 00:44:14,360
in any sort of proximity to Central New York, We've

901
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,760
got a great watch party at Turningstone Resort Casino tonight, Verona,

902
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,639
New York. Very easy to get to. Uh, it's in

903
00:44:20,679 --> 00:44:22,440
the middle of We're in the middle of nowhere out here,

904
00:44:22,679 --> 00:44:25,440
so there's plenty of parking. It's it's it's really it's

905
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,360
not in a city or anything. It's it's easy in,

906
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,559
easy out, a bunch of places to stay. But I'll

907
00:44:30,639 --> 00:44:33,400
be down here tonight from probably the start of the

908
00:44:33,559 --> 00:44:36,880
Jay's game till the end of the football game, so

909
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,599
pretty much all night. I'll buy you a drink. They

910
00:44:39,639 --> 00:44:41,480
have some great specials and we're just going to be

911
00:44:41,519 --> 00:44:43,920
hanging out. So I know we have some guys in

912
00:44:44,079 --> 00:44:45,559
the I know we have some guys in the chat

913
00:44:45,639 --> 00:44:47,000
that are in Central New York.

914
00:44:47,159 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 4: You know what.

915
00:44:47,599 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 1: Actually, we have a bunch of guys that watch the

916
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:52,480
show that are from Canada, and a bunch of them

917
00:44:52,599 --> 00:44:55,519
came down when we did one during March Madness, so

918
00:44:56,119 --> 00:44:58,440
that that's a great way to spend your Canadian Thanksgiving.

919
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:02,280
Come on down here watch watch the Bills. Uh was

920
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:04,639
here for the Yankees watch party last week.

921
00:45:04,679 --> 00:45:05,199
Speaker 2: It was great.

922
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:10,039
Speaker 1: Central New York is very much Bill's Mafia country, so

923
00:45:10,599 --> 00:45:13,840
we'll have a great crowd in attendance tonight and yeah

924
00:45:14,079 --> 00:45:15,960
happy do people like?

925
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:16,280
Speaker 4: Like?

926
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:19,039
Speaker 1: Do does pres like say happy Thanksgiving the people and

927
00:45:19,079 --> 00:45:19,800
then cook a turkey?

928
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 2: Is that not how it goes?

929
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:21,559
Speaker 4: I need to know this.

930
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 1: We need to ask our mind pres. Are they having

931
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:28,440
like turkey and like stuffing and stuff today? I know

932
00:45:28,559 --> 00:45:30,760
there's a CFL football game on it one, so they

933
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,800
do the football thing. It's probably hockey all day.

934
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:38,519
Speaker 4: I gotta they probably drink maple syrup and have some

935
00:45:38,639 --> 00:45:41,639
Moosehead beer and watch hockey or something.

936
00:45:43,599 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 3: We'll check in with so we have they're gonna be

937
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,480
on the most wanted list when you go to Canada.

938
00:45:53,639 --> 00:45:56,199
Speaker 1: We got quite a few people at wager Talk that

939
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,480
that are from Canada, so we'll need to get I'll

940
00:45:58,519 --> 00:46:01,960
need to get a We got ask President and Andrew

941
00:46:02,039 --> 00:46:05,480
and Carmi how they spend Canadian Thanksgiving, which I'm sure

942
00:46:05,559 --> 00:46:08,119
we'll be watching hockey. So if you're gonna watch hockey

943
00:46:08,159 --> 00:46:14,039
all day, check out Brian Leonards five percent plays absolutely absolutely.

944
00:46:14,079 --> 00:46:16,079
Speaker 4: Brian doesn't put out a lot of five percenters, and

945
00:46:16,119 --> 00:46:18,239
when he does, he usually wins them. Can I mention

946
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,559
one thing that Ralph put in our post sport here

947
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:27,960
he said that home favorites awful loss since twenty sixteen

948
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:31,400
are twenty and twenty six in game two, with an

949
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:35,159
average line of minus one forty two. The home favorites

950
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:37,880
after losing game one, they generally will lose game two.

951
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,239
If they're favorite in game two too. That's not good

952
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:45,840
news for the Toronto Blue Jays anyways.

953
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 3: That's just as the American stats though, right.

954
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:53,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Canadians, yeah they do.

955
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, they have Canadian teams in this far in the

956
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,400
playoffs are not lost in like how many years now.

957
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,119
Speaker 4: They drink maple so and they do it by the

958
00:47:01,199 --> 00:47:01,960
metric system.

959
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,760
Speaker 3: World about the metric system, it's the United States is

960
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:07,559
screwed it all up.

961
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 4: I learned the metric system living out here.

962
00:47:11,559 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 3: They taught us the metric system one year when I

963
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:15,719
was in school, and that was it.

964
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:17,159
Speaker 4: I think it was seventy.

965
00:47:18,559 --> 00:47:20,159
Speaker 3: It's too hard. It goes on basis of ten.

966
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, we'd rather do ounces and leaders or whatever

967
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:25,719
they do.

968
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,800
Speaker 1: Ethan Bainbridge says, flying in New York City, it's his

969
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:30,840
first time in New York.

970
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:32,320
Speaker 2: Where I am in New York.

971
00:47:32,159 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 1: Could not be more different there. It is like a

972
00:47:35,119 --> 00:47:38,840
different country here than New York City. To get to

973
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:40,719
hear from New York City, you'd have to hop another

974
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:44,039
flight and come to Syracuse. But it is, uh, we're

975
00:47:44,039 --> 00:47:46,599
out in the country. Central New York is very rural,

976
00:47:47,559 --> 00:47:49,880
so that is it's very But enjoy New York City

977
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:52,679
because that is that is an experience I can't imagine.

978
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:54,880
I've been so many times at this point, I can't

979
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:58,039
imagine like going for the first time. But it's it's

980
00:47:58,079 --> 00:48:00,199
got to be a that'll be a shock and in

981
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:03,639
a good way. It's it's very cool city. Yeah, ts

982
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:05,320
Fox as New York City is in other world.

983
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 2: That is that is very, very true.

984
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 1: Anyone have anything to any more closing thoughts, We've done

985
00:48:13,039 --> 00:48:16,119
our promos. We've broke down both games as as thoroughly

986
00:48:16,199 --> 00:48:17,159
as we possibly can.

987
00:48:18,519 --> 00:48:19,159
Speaker 2: Anything else.

988
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 4: I'm not bashing Canada, you guys. I love Canada. I've

989
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:27,199
never been there, but everyone from Canada is much nicer

990
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,480
than everyone from America from my experience, So.

991
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:35,639
Speaker 3: Cross that's a Canadian. I hope he has ever his

992
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:39,000
bands from the United States, so Canada to keep them.

993
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:41,639
That makes me a favorite of Canada's right there. Just

994
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:42,760
for keeping the press.

995
00:48:44,159 --> 00:48:49,079
Speaker 4: I think Carmine's kindness. Trump's Pres is awkwardness.

996
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 3: Andrew Trump, not Trump.

997
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:55,039
Speaker 2: Uh.

998
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 4: Pres Pres is actually a nice guy, but he doesn't

999
00:48:58,480 --> 00:48:59,320
want people to know it.

1000
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 2: Oh he's the best, He's the best.

1001
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 1: He he to go to a Grateful Dead concert with

1002
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,280
him and it got canceled, but he was still in

1003
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:11,880
Saratoga Springs and we we hit me Mallory, Prez and

1004
00:49:12,039 --> 00:49:13,400
and Vivian went out for the night.

1005
00:49:13,559 --> 00:49:17,360
Speaker 2: Had it at absolute last. He's he's he's a great time.

1006
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:19,039
So shout shout out to Press.

1007
00:49:19,079 --> 00:49:20,599
Speaker 1: But I do want to I do want to hit

1008
00:49:20,639 --> 00:49:23,719
the Canadians up and see I'm curious if their Thanksgiving

1009
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,440
is like ours. So we'll have to We'll have to

1010
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:30,079
a good topic for end Zone Live this week. Hey Press,

1011
00:49:30,119 --> 00:49:32,880
how is how is Canadian Thanksgiving? Since we have four

1012
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:36,440
hours to fill while we watch football games, we'll uh, well, well,

1013
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:37,800
maybe we'll ask him on that show.

1014
00:49:38,159 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 4: Basically four hours of Pres complaining about.

1015
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 3: His Yes, pretty much, Yeah, a sixty year old guy

1016
00:49:45,519 --> 00:49:47,679
complaining about his bad TV.

1017
00:49:48,599 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 4: He's looking to him.

1018
00:49:52,119 --> 00:49:54,199
Speaker 1: He has been lighting it up on that show with

1019
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:57,599
in game bats. Shout out his in game bets on

1020
00:49:57,679 --> 00:49:59,280
that show. Have got to be hitting out like a

1021
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:02,039
seventy percent. Well, that's one thing if you tune on it,

1022
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:04,760
we do. We do a football stream on Sundays. It's

1023
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:06,800
called end Zone Live, give out a lot of in

1024
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:10,280
play stuff. Pres has been deadly on that show with

1025
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,360
his in play NFL bet So promo for for end

1026
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:16,559
Zone Live. That's every Sunday on wager Talk TV at

1027
00:50:16,599 --> 00:50:19,159
one o'clock. We're gonna wrap it up. We've got two

1028
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:22,280
baseball games tonight. We will be back tomorrow morning to

1029
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,760
talk Brewers Dodgers Game two. If you can make it

1030
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:28,119
the Central New York come hang with me tonight at

1031
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:30,760
Turning Storm Resort Casino. The sports book is called New

1032
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:33,360
York Wreck and Social Club. That's where we'll be for

1033
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:36,559
the Bills game and the baseball games. Thank you, guys,

1034
00:50:36,639 --> 00:50:39,000
to all you do. Continue to tune into this show

1035
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:40,679
as we get to the end of the season. It

1036
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:44,039
is far exceeded our expectations. We very much appreciate it.

1037
00:50:45,199 --> 00:50:48,440
Like subscribe, drop a comment if you if you if

1038
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:51,880
you're on the replay, it helps the show tremendously and

1039
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:55,119
we'll see you guys in the morning tomorrow nine am

1040
00:50:55,199 --> 00:50:56,039
for more total basis.

1041
00:50:56,079 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 2: Have a great day, everyone,