Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in Adam trigger here. It is Monday.
It's time for Total Bases. I got on screen and
Brian's like, are you at the Strip club right now?
And I was like, no, this is the sports book.
You can kind of see it behind me. This is
where I'll be tonight, So quick promo if you are
in town or feel like driving to town. Turning Stone
Resort Casino for Verona, New York. It's central New York,
very easy to get to from just about anywhere in
the Northeast. And I will be here at a Bills
watch party.
Speaker 2: But we also it's Bills.
Speaker 1: We have two Monday night football games tonight, so you're
gonna have the Bills game, which will be the feature
the Commander's Bears, and then we've got two baseball games,
which we are going to talk about. So the baseball
starts at six and our five I'm sorry, five PM,
and I will be here all night, so come down.
Speaker 2: I'll buy you a drink.
Speaker 1: It is the screen that you see right now really
doesn't know justice. It's incredible in here. It really does
feel like you're more to nightclub than a sportsbook. But
there it's.
Speaker 2: Three hundred and sixty degrees.
Speaker 1: There is a million TVs and there's gonna be some
good specials tonight and I'm here, so come hang out
with me if you are in the area.
Speaker 2: But we have some so man, we have we have
two games to talk about today. But I want to go.
Speaker 1: To you guys for some takeaways from the weekend because
I think it's a good lead into the show. I've
got one, but I'll start. I'll let Brian start and
then we'll go to Tokyo. Brandon, any takeaway from the
weekend that you're gonna bring into the ALCS NLCS round.
Speaker 3: For you guys, I'm gonna pull a TV yeah, and
I'm gonna have a little bit of a bitch session.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 3: And it has nothing to do with any of us,
any of our listeners. Has to do with Kelly. Kelly
put out a tweet the other day she goes, I
tried to watch one of these baseball games. I can't
get into it. Baseball sucks. How can after watching these
playoff games? How can any say that baseball sucks? This
has been tremendous games. Whether it's high scoring games, low
scoring games, whatever you want, it's been. You're on the
edge of your seat. It's like going to a hockey game.
If anybody's ever gone to a hockey game in person,
you're on the edge of your seat the entire game.
Baseball is that way. She could take her NFL or
whatever she likes. I don't know, but come on, Kelly,
you're doing it for stubbornness. At this point. There's no
way you can not like baseball. Love Kelly, but this
is a bad decision on her part, and I need
to take her to a game one day and I'll
just fly out take her wherever she wants to go.
I let her sit there and watch a game. That's
actually important.
Speaker 4: If we took the baseball cappers at Wager Tuck versus
the football cappers at Wager Talk, we would destroy them.
Baseball is by far the best sport to bet in
sports betting and win money. Football is almost impossible to
win money. I'm sorry, but baseball is a much better
sport to bet, So I'm going to counter Kelly on
that point. So when you're sports betting, you have to
separate entertainment from making a profit.
Speaker 2: TB.
Speaker 1: We we lost you there. I think we lost your
mic I here, Yeah, you're back.
Speaker 3: Now you're gone, you buy some American equipment on.
Speaker 1: Your first of all, I would say Japanese equipment. I got,
so while TV fixes his Mike, I'm just gonna jump in.
Speaker 2: I knew so.
Speaker 1: Kelly was in Detroit at the home office and she
went to a Tiger's Red Sox game that went like
twelve innings and I think Hobby Bias had a walk
off home run, and I was just like, if that
can't get you into baseball, I don't.
Speaker 2: I don't know what will.
Speaker 1: But Brian, you teed up the point I wanted to
make exactly, and then we'll go to TV on once
as Mike is fixed, I said at the beginning when
we started doing the playoff total basis shows, I said,
you know, I used to I used to not be
as inclined to bet the playoffs because I think it's
I always thought it was harder to win in the playoffs,
and we had kind of talked about that for years,
and it used to and I think it used to be.
But this weekend was a perfect example. I'm sitting there
Friday night, I'm watching Tigers Mariners go fifteen games, fifteen innings,
and I'm watching a bunch of people tweet on social
media that I know haven't really watched baseball all season,
and they're I'm seeing memes of like the Blue Jays
being excited that this game is going fifteen innings, and
it's like there's one meme that's like, you know, you've
got two guys boxing and the Blue Jays are just
sitting over in the corner, chilling, waiting for the game
to be over. And then the betting lines come out
for Game one, and I was like, oh wow, Like
the average person betting the playoffs thinks that that's a
big deal, right, thinks that playing a game after an
off day, that that fifteen innings was a big deal.
Speaker 2: And I'm sitting there thinking like.
Speaker 1: That that's just it, that that's wrong, right, Like we
see games go extra innings all the time. During one
hundred and sixty two game season. These two teams, these
teams come out the next day and play no problem.
I'm over here, like did they make him walk from
Seattle to Toronto? I don't understand why that they The
thought process was that the Mariners were not going to
be ready for Game one, and then the line comes
out and the Blue Jays are getting up like this game,
like the Mariners are going to have no chance. I'm
actually kicking myself that I didn't make that a five
percent play yesterday I made Mariners plus one and a
half a four percent play, and in a hindsight, it
should have been a five. That was the best spot
of the whole playoffs to jump in and oppose this
like like going back to your point, this this very
all of a sudden. You're getting some public money, you're
getting uninformed money in the market, and the playoffs might
be the best time to make money in Major League Baseball.
So that it's my little mini rant TV. Do we
have volume back on your microphone yet we still don't
have I will say, go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: I had to put I had to put something for
baseball out for my clients, So I put out a
free play and I said the line was too high.
I said, but do I really want to bet a
team that just went fifteen innings and it wasn't your
normal fifteen innings strike I will slightly disagree with This
isn't regular season fifteen innings. This was every pitch was
was so key. It's a stressful fifteen innings. I said,
you know, like they talk about him bringing in relievers.
I go, yeah, he had a stressful you know, fifteen
pitchers yesterday as opposed to a non stressful twenty five
or whatever.
Speaker 1: Don't you think, Brian that the day off negates a
lot of that though it wouldn't have been different if
it was twenty four hours later.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it would, but because of the situation and they
didn't even leave their city until later on, there was
there were some problems with her with the aircraft or whatever.
So yeah, it's but I use I used the favorite
as a free player story. I didn't want anything to
do with the game for clients, But yeah, I was
very oppressed by the way Seattle come out and play
that game. I think it was more Seattle didn't look good.
Toronto looked bad. Toronto should have been more prepared for
that game.
Speaker 2: Oh he's back, Go ahead, TV.
Speaker 4: Hey, what's up? Baseball, by far is a better sport
to bet if you're trying to make money rather than football.
Football is very difficult to make money, So for entertainment,
football is great, but for winning money, baseball is better.
So tell Kelly that.
Speaker 3: College football is easier to win on the NFL anymore.
Speaker 2: I don't know how anymore.
Speaker 1: Okay, I think if I think, if you're betting the FCS,
it is FBS is basically pro.
Speaker 4: I have a small I'm getting tired of managers pulling
starting pitchers at sixty pitches when they're not in trouble
yet when you leave When you leave a pitcher in
for ninety pitches regularly in the regular season, and then
all of a sudden in the postseason you pull him
at sixty pitches, it makes absolutely no sense. There's no
reason to do that, no reason. I think. I think
Gaussman was pulled way too early yesterday. I realized there
was a guy on first and second with no outs,
but you pulled him too early, and as soon as
you pulled him out, boom, there goes the game. So
I mean, I'm getting tired of managers making stupid decisions.
It's really annoying me. Actually, when you leave a guy
in for ninety pitches every start in the regular season,
why would you pull him at sixty in the playoffs?
It just makes no sense. It boggles my mind. Honestly,
I would disagree a little bit lost So obviously I'm
right because they lost the game.
Speaker 3: Well, you're not right. That was one one spot on
your stats. I will say that in the playoffs, every
every every bat means more. So if you've got a
guy who goes through two, he can go through two.
Uh look at just look at his his numbers the
third time through the order. If he was about to
face somebody the third time, that's when you want to
pull him. I would not let anybody unless it's your
elite pitchers in baseball, and as good as Gosman is,
I wouldn't consider him elite pitcher. But that's just fine.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but yeah, look at the teams that are winning,
and look how long they leave their pictures in. That's
all I'm gonna say.
Speaker 1: That's a good point TV, and I'm going to go
to Brian here and it'll be our segue into our
first game. So I will say just one quick comment
because I've got to, I guess take take a little
bit of an l here. I have been highly complimentary
or a J. Hinch saying that he's the best manager.
I think he did too much in that.
Speaker 4: Big mistake, big mistake mistakes, mistakes.
Speaker 2: I think he overman. I think it was the reason
the Tigers lost. I gotta sayt let.
Speaker 4: Your players win the game. You can't insert yourself in
the game. You just can't do it. Let the players
run it.
Speaker 2: As good as anyone though.
Speaker 1: But he I do think that I do think there
was a couple of spots that he would like to
have back. I'll go to We'll go to Brian, and
we'll start this game. So first game today is Game
two Mariner's Blue Jays. Now the J's are down one
nothing in the series. One thing I will credit Dan
Wilson with, and this kind of goes You've got to
be a complimentary of this TV is the fact that
he seems to stick to his guns in terms of
like managing the games like he manages the regular season,
maybe more so than anyone like he he's pretty much
letting his starting pitcher navigate trouble. It's their start, and
then he'll go to the bullpen the same way he
would in a game in August. Now, Brian Leonard is
that because he's got probably as established of a rotation,
Mariners probably have more starting pitching than just about anyone.
Speaker 2: So maybe that's it.
Speaker 1: But that's something thing I've noticed with Wilson today you've
got Logan Gilbert. You're probably gonna see that again. He's
probably gonna go deep again here. How how are you
looking at Mariners Gates?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a lot helpful when you've got the
best pitchers in baseball on your team. It didn't work
for the Mets. The Mets have a really good rotation too,
But Brian wu is now on the roster, and he
threw uh through some pictures just through in the bullpen.
He's now on the roster, so he gives them another
starter just as good, if not better than the ones
that they've been using. I would expect this to possibly
be You'd have to think this may be a slight
letdown spot for Seattle. You know, it's it's like traveling
with the with the the long distances in the flight,
you know, the flight, they're affecting you, that kind of thing.
So it may be the second day that it happens.
But still you've got Logan Gilbert and you're getting them
as a nice hunderdog here against Savage. We're getting Toronto
in the one thirty five range, and you're looking at
a seven and a half to the over or an
eight to the under. I do want to start off
we're talking about Tregy Savage because his numbers look great.
He's got a three point two on you're a four
point zero six expected. The whip is high at one
point four to three, and we've talked about how dominant
he can be. But when you take a look at
granted he's only pitch fourteen innings in the majors, Uh,
there is some things that I'm a little bit worried about.
But if you take a look at his exact pitches,
he basically throws three pitches, the four seemer at the
slider and the split finger. The split finger has been
by far his most effective. His expected WOLBA is two
hundred on a split finger, four oh nine on the slider,
three point fifty four on the four seemer, and he
throws that split finger against lefties forty seven pitches in
the playoffs since he's since he's been been with the
with the team, forty seven split fingers versus lefties, sixteen
versus righties. So the first thing you have to do
is take a look at who Toronto is going to
throw up there as their lefty batters, and right now
they're normal lefties are Lucas Barger, Jim Andez and var Show.
Now that would mean the chances are hundred, Palaffa and
David Schneider will be in this game. I think that's
a step back. Lucas is a really good hitter. Barger,
although he's not playing as well now as he did
earlier in the season. He's a downgrade there. But taking
him out unfortunately him and As hasn't done much and
they rarely take him out, So we'll see what happens.
But that would leave Varshow And I don't think they
take Varshow out of the lineup. But those are some
bats that that's gonna hurt Toronto a little bit by
making that change. But still, Yasavae has been a guy
who has had a lot of success. But a lot
of people thinking he is the way about this game.
I'm not sure he is the way. The Seattle team's
playing with Gilbert. You know Gilbert the last two seasons.
Despite the ra's a three point two to three yes
last year, in three point four to four this year,
he's got a fifteen and eighteen record. It's it's it's
the it's the many, the many schemes for Pittsburgh, but
he's been terrific. Comes in with a three point h
two expected DRA, three point four to four ERA and
a one point oh three whip. But this average ex
VELOSSI and he's in the tenth percentile barrel rate forty
five percent ale harder rate forty So you got two
guys that can actually be hit a little bit here
now the line, As I said, seven and a half
to the over, I kind of think there's gonna be
some runs in this game. You've got really good hitters
Toronto and Seattle. Both teams have played very well. It's
been great on the road for they're hitting Toronto and
Hall has been very good. And we're getting that total
at seven and a half to the twenty. That's the
way I would play this. I would the game over
if I had to play it, And yeah, we'll see
what you guys have to say about that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, for the most part, I would agree with that.
Let me point out something to actually back that up
at first glance. I told you in the last show,
like when I'm doing my capping, what I do is
I look at the matchups. I kind of get an
image in my head of what I think the line
should be and where I think it everything will fall in,
maybe project a score in my head, and then I
go into the numbers and see if the numbers back
up my original instinct. I looked at these numbers and
I thought, you know, you've got a trusted veteran in
Gilbert against a rookie, and you savage who has very
little experience in a high whip. Like Brian said, I thought, wow,
Seattle should be favored in this one. And then I
look and it's the Jays minus one thirty or one twenty.
That kind of surprised me. But then I dug a
little deeper, and I understand why. Now if you look
at Gilbert, this is one of his best seasons ever,
He's he's I think he's pitching a little over his
head this season, and his numbers against these batters not
real good. He's got nine a three h nine batting
average against in ninety four at bats and an eight
eighty six OPS. And I've always said seven to fifty
is around the Mendoza line. Who's getting to him? Gladdie
six for fifteen, Kinner for Fala or however he says
his name five for fifteen Kirk the little caveman midget
guy four for twelve. I mean, there's a lot of
guys on this team that can get to him. And
I think Toronto we're going to see some runs here.
I agree with Brian. I think we'll see some runs
from Toronto. There is something to be said between being
a veteran and being a younger guy, because the younger guys,
the pressure does get to them. Sometimes they're not used
to high pressure situations, where a guy like Gilbert might
be a little more used to a pressure situation. And however,
I think I've seen this many times and I can't
really put I can't really think of a concrete formula
to express this. But you know, when you expect a
team to be tired, sometimes they come out in game
one and just explode and then the the what's the
word I'm looking for, the tiredness, what's the word I'm
looking for? Fatigue? The fatigue. The fatigue comes out, I
think in Japanese something the fatigue comes out in game two,
and I think we might see a little fatigue here
from Seattle. They've played what twenty four innings in four days,
So if the fatigue is going to come out it
didn't come out yesterday, but I think it's going to
show up eventually and this could be the game. That's
just how I see.
Speaker 2: It, TB.
Speaker 1: Before I get into my breakdown, do you also think
that not only fatigue, but maybe is there an exhale
that's possible here? Not only are they a little bit tired,
but they went, they had to go. They're saying, hey,
if we can get one more in business, they get
the first one.
Speaker 2: Would you be worried about that?
Speaker 1: Like maybe it's like now we get to exhale finally
from Friday night.
Speaker 4: Sometimes when especially if you're gonna play two games on
the road and you take the first one, you know
you've got to split already. Uh, they're gonna play three
though here, aren't they? Or are they playing two?
Speaker 2: So two three?
Speaker 4: Yeah? If it's two, yeah, it's two three two I believe?
Is that right, Brian? Well, check odd Logic page only
the NBA went.
Speaker 2: To that two to one one deal.
Speaker 4: Okay, So David's staying in the comments. Our commentors are
are are the smartest audience in all of wager talk,
and they're saying three two three, So, uh, they've got
to split already on the road. So yeah, I do believe.
Speaker 1: In the next hill, I had to get my I
had to try, I had to like get my thought
back to this. Last night, I'm in a discord trying
to explain the KBO playoffs to someone and it's like
I'm realizing I'm typing out a whole paragraph because they
like a.
Speaker 4: Pyramid, right, and you beat him, you go up, you
beat him, you go up in every time, every time
the top team has a one to nothing advantage before
it starts.
Speaker 2: No, I think it's a great format.
Speaker 1: And then your best team, your winner, goes straight to
their version of the World Series. I think that's great.
Back to this game. So a couple thoughts here I'm
going to kind of throw out. So first thought was
when I saw the line, this game's priced like yesterday's
game should have been priced.
Speaker 2: In my opinion, I think the books have corrected the
overstatement from the first game. Now I do agree with Brian.
Speaker 1: I still think even at this number, there's still a
little Mariner's value in there, but it's not so pronounced
in my opinion like yesterday, where I'm likely to play it. Now,
A couple things that caught my eye Logan Gilbert's outs
prop most places is like fifteen or fourteen and a half.
I think some of the sites that have it up
right now are juiced fourteen and a half, which says
that they don't think he's gonna go five innings, which
if you get if he goes five and you have
the over fourteen and a half, you've hit your bet.
I would disagree with that, And I'm just gonna go
back to how Dan Wilson has managed his whole playoffs.
He's putting his starter out there and it's their start. Now,
I understand he came in through thirty four pitches and they,
whereas Brian was pointing out, they weren't your typical It's
not the same as throwing thirty four pitches in the
side session on your throw day, right like he was
in throwing thirty four high leverage pitches in Game five
of the Alds. But I don't I still don't think
it's gonna have it's going to deter Dan Wilson.
Speaker 2: From keeping Logan Gilbert in this game.
Speaker 1: If he's throwing the ball, well, now, maybe maybe he
doesn't go seven innings, but I certainly think five is
the target. Like if you're Dan Wilson, you're looking at
this game. I think five from Gilbert would be like
almost like the minimum that he would like. The only
way he's coming out before that is if he gets
into so much trouble that they feel like they have
to take him out, whereas if he doesn't have it.
But some of these guys too, Like I don't think
the short rest is you know, super like, Like we
saw Bryce Miller on a day a short rest, and
he looked as good as he's looked all season, So
I wouldn't read too much into that. I think the
books have made a little bit of an over adjustment
there to think that you should be like they're basically saying, Okay,
Gilbert goes five and you cash.
Speaker 2: He doesn't go five and you don't cash.
Speaker 1: I gotta like the over fourteen and a half outs
for Gilbert because it's still your ace, Logan, Gilbert, He's
still your ace.
Speaker 2: One.
Speaker 1: Two, I don't know how much you can really count
on Brian Wu. I think you might see him out
of the bullpen. I don't know if you're going to
see him start a game in this series. And three,
I'm just watching how Dan Wilson manages games and saying
he's only going to his pen if he's in trouble.
So I think that over fourteen and a half outs
is a good bet as far as the Savage is
concerned here, I actually don't mind this matchup for him
because the Mariners, they still are a team that I
think sort of waits for the long ball a little bit.
Speaker 2: They don't really string hits together. I'm not saying that.
Speaker 1: They can't have patient at that's what if you If
you Savage a wild, they'll draw a walk or two.
But it's it's unlikely that they're just gonna be taking
him deep left and right.
Speaker 2: And I agree with you, Tokyo Brandon. That split finger.
Speaker 1: It is as unhittable of a pitch as there is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, nasty.
Speaker 1: And to go to David David Edgington in the in
the chat, that's I kind of answered this question. I
meant to pull it up on the screen. I I
think it's his it's his start. I think it's his
normal start. Most of Gilbert's starts, he's gone five six innings,
and even though he's been maybe not as economical with
his pitches, he's running a lot accounts like full lately,
he seems to make the pitch, doesn't really walk many guys.
He'll get into three to two and then he'll throw
something that you can't lay off of and and the
Jays will swing the bat.
Speaker 2: I mean they can.
Speaker 1: They will come out and swing a little bit, and
I think they could be inclined to swing a little
bit more after really doing nothing offensively last night after
the Sprinter home run. So that would be my play
for this game. I'll go I'll go Gilbert over fourteen
and a half outs. It's currently minus won forty a
lot of places. I think that is a good right.
Speaker 4: If I may check in the first inning if he's
locating that split change, because if he's locating it, he
could go easily go five innings here. I don't see
why they would pull him out. He's a young guy,
and like Adam said in previous shows, in the minor leagues,
he was going like six seven innings regularly, right, So
he can be he can be a he can take
the weight on his shoulders if he's locating that pitch.
If you see him walking guys in the first inning
and he's not in his commands, not there, look for
an early hook, because I don't think they're gonna wait
for him to explode.
Speaker 3: I do think, if I remember correctly, Gilbert has gone
like six or eight starts walking more than one guy
in the game. Do they have his walk prop up
there right now?
Speaker 1: Well, Brian, I'll let TV look for it. He's good
at finding the walk props. I'm gonna let him look
for that. That's interesting because he is he has gotten
himself into an incredible number of three to two counts
without walking guys. So do you think, with the magnitude
of this game, and the fact that it's the Blue
Jays a very good line of one to nine, that
maybe the walks over it is it? Would it be
walks over you look at because so many of those
counts are three two? Are you thinking his command is
just that good? I mean when logan gilberts On, he
is an ace. I mean he would be in the
Cy Young conversation if he didn't get it, if he
wasn't injured earlier this year.
Speaker 2: So I'm curious to see how you're looking at that.
Speaker 3: No, I would look towards the walks under it was one, two, three, four, five, Yeah,
Six out of his last eight games, he's averaging one walk.
He did walk two batters against Cleaveland. Tim and Dust
take a lot of pitches. So yeah, I would look
forward to go under because he's gonna stay in this
game as long as he possibly can, and he's got
the stuff. I mean, it's if you take a look
at his chase rights seventy six percentile, he can strike
you out. Walk right doesn't walk any better. So he's
the guy that can go out of there. There's some
of these other guys that they have to come into
the strike zone. I don't trust him in that situation.
But with the with the chase right that he has
and strikeout rates, I'm not concerned if he has to
go throw one right down the middle. And there was
actually an article put out the other day that throwing
the ball right down the middle is the best way
to get people out because nobody's ever expecting it.
Speaker 1: So I see his So his walks prop right now
is a juiced under one and a half. And that
tells me the books do not think he's going to
be in this game for his full allotment of pitches,
which I actually disagree with. So that's that's really interesting
because if you if you subscribe to the theory that
Gilbert pitched two winnings on Friday, maybe he's not going
as deep as he typically would. Then I think your
walks prop he has some legs, right, because if he's
only in there for three four innings, I don't think
he's I think he's gonna go at least five. But
if he's only in there for three four innings, you
have to like having a walk.
Speaker 2: To work with.
Speaker 3: What's what's the jeers on that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, like one fifty.
Speaker 4: It looks like you're right, Brian, one, two, three, four, five, six,
seven starts he's walked one or less.
Speaker 2: And b Rad, I know what site you're looking at,
and there is a minus one ninety five out there.
Speaker 1: But I do think you could probably did these props.
You gotta shop around. I think you can probably do
better than that. All right, good discussion on that one.
Let's head to the National League. The Brewers end up
end up getting it done in Game five and we
get the series that I don't know, I feel like
this is the series that most thought it would be,
at least going into the NLDS round. I don't think
there's a surprise here. Dodgers, I think have been the
best team in the playoffs thus far. Brewers are the
best team this season. Tokyo Brandon will be invited to
the parade in Milwaukee when they win.
Speaker 2: He turned in their season.
Speaker 1: Around with one comment, turn their season around. We're headed
to Milwaukee here, it's Dodgers Brewers Game one. Kick us off,
Ryan Leonard, how you looking at this series?
Speaker 4: Okay?
Speaker 3: Do we know who's going to start from Milwaukee?
Speaker 4: I heard yea.
Speaker 3: At this point, they're gonna it's gonna be more of
a bullpen game anyway.
Speaker 4: It's gonna be either priest or.
Speaker 3: The veteran. The veteran yeahh no, no, no.
Speaker 4: Name.
Speaker 3: I think Watana comes out here. He's better.
Speaker 2: So so I'm just just quickly.
Speaker 1: One of the beat writers for the for the Brewers said,
you're you're probably looking at an opener. Quintana and Priester
as like the the plan for the first six to
seven innings of the game.
Speaker 2: So do what you will with that.
Speaker 3: Okay, I think that's a pretty good combination. All right,
We're looking at Smell right here, the lefty. That's the
basically the Malwaukee Brewers entire team. We've got the Dodgers
about a one forty eight favorite here seven and a
half to the total, and I'm with you, TV, I
wanted Milwaukee to make it. I'm a bag for Cleveland.
I've always been an underdog kind of guy. I'm very
happy with whoever comes out of the American League. Seattle
in Toronto haven't been there in a while, and Milwaukee
is a team that's a lot of fun to watch.
But that said, if you go back to before the
playoffs started, both TV and I agree or excuse me,
trigger and I agree that the Dodgers were the team
to beat and I still think they are. Snell's on
the mounse. Smell's the guy that he will walk a
few betters, but he walks them when they don't need
to be walked, or he needs to just get him
out of the way and go to the next guy.
It's been very good in that in that regard, and
if you take a look at what the Dodgers have
done in this with Snell on the mound, he's been
very impressive this year. He's had he's had injury problems
the last few years, which really hurts you only had
eleven starts this year after only twenty last year, but
they've been good starts two point three five year, a
one point twenty six whip he's expected to ra three
point two to oh. Everything is clearly in the red
on his stackass page, except for, like I said, the
walk percentage eighteen percent. He throws the four samer forty
four percent of the time. Being a lefty, he's two
miles an hour better than a traditional lefty in that regard,
throws four pitches. Can't dislike Blake Snell and the way
this bullpen is playing right now. This is something that
it's going to be tough to beat, regardless of who
pitches for Milwaukee. I like that setup if they bring
in the guy to go the first inning and then
come in with the veteran and then priest who's having
a terrific year that I believe finally suffered a loss,
you know, in one of his starts. So, but they've
been very good all season long. Do I want to
play under seven and a half? Here? If I take
a look at the park factors today, we're looking at
Toronto's basically minus three percent of the runs and in
here Milwaukee minus eight percent of the runs. I would
look to the Audre. I think it's going to be
a really good pitching matchup here. And while I like
the over in the first game, I kind of like
the under in this one.
Speaker 4: I can't really argue with that. If you look at
Snell's numbers against the Brewers. I know it's a small
sample size, only thirty three at bats, but wow, a
one fifty two average against in a four to seventy
five OPS pretty amazing stuff. The problem is, like Brian said,
he does walk guys. He's got five walks he's averaging.
That comes out to maybe about three walks per start,
So you can expect him to walk maybe two guys here,
maybe three guys. But he has gotten out of trouble
when he's putting guys on base, especially against these guys.
He's dominated them. So on other stat that kind of
contradicts that is Snell on the road has like a
four to seven ERA, So which is which? Which comes
up bigger here? I always like the head to head matchups.
I think it matters how he goes against these guys
because I look at baseball as kind of a one
on one matchup pitcher against batter. In most cases, obviously
you have fielding and errors and all kinds of stuff
like that. Ask the New York Yankees. But I think
the under would be a way to go here, or
take whoever the underdog is and give them plus runs here,
because I think I think we're looking at a tight
game the Brewers. You know, the Dodgers hit almost one
hundred more home runs than the Brewers, but the Brewers
have more hits than the Dodgers. So it means the
Brewers manufacture their runs and the Dodgers crank their runs out.
Hard to take an under with this Dodgers lineup, but
if there's any way to go, I think that's the
way to go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta say I think the I think the
books got the pricing right on these two games, which
is which is not going to be uncommon in the playoffs.
I think we've kind of talked about that the entire
time with the playoffs here, very rarely are you going
to see a scenario like Game one, where, at least
for me, I thought that that number was way off,
and I thought it was because Game one of the
Mariners Blue Jays, which I thought was because of how
the betting public was betting at these two are much
more in line with where I would have priced the game,
so I'm not I'm not really seeing any like number value,
line value in the full game, side or total. I
do think, like I do think the Dodgers should be
favored here. I'll go back to what Brian was saying.
I think they're the best team, and getting Will Smith
back in the playoffs is huge. I think they're going
to be the team to beat now. The Brewers certainly
could do it. I think if I was going to
bet the Brewers here, I think I would look at
the first five. The reason for that is I think
if you're going to get Snell, you typically have to
get him early. The only real issue I have with Snell, ever,
is maybe he'll maybe walk a guy or two, and
it seems like if he's gonna give up a big hit,
it's typically early in the game before he settles. In
almost anytime I've watched Blake Snell pitch this year, once
you allow him to sort of find his groove, he's
very tough to break through on. So right now you
can get bruised plus a half run, minus one fifteen
or minus one twenty A lot of places for the
first five. I'm with Brian, I don't mind the setup
early in this game for Milwaukee if you're gonna get
potentially I would have to think they'd like to use
Ashby or like one of those openers, you know, to
try to go after Freeman Otani at the top. A
lot of teams like to use that left the opener
against the Dodgers because it just gives him a better
chance to get Otani and Freeman out that first time
through the order. So if I'm Pat Murphy, I think
I'm gonna have Ashby open this game, and then I'll
probably go Priester, and then I'll probably have Quintana in
my back pocket for if a spot comes up where
I feel like I need to go and have another
lefty come into the game. Again, I'm not saying that's
definitely how it's gonna go.
Speaker 2: He could go. He very well could go Quintana to
start here.
Speaker 1: Because he's a veteran guy, and you know he'll he'll
still get the matchup that he wants. Maybe he lets
Kintana go three or four, goes to a bullpen guy,
goes to Priester, and then uses Ashby later in the game.
I'm really not sure. I don't think anyone is sure
what he's gonna do. But the point is, I think
there's ways for the Brewers to mix and match to
even this up early. And then if the Brewer is
a team that is scrappy, that can draw their walks
and stuff that can steal bases, that's the other thing, Snell,
you can get him with a walker too.
Speaker 2: Early. Milwaukee's got a ton of team speed, and I wouldn't.
Speaker 1: Be surprised if they tried to maybe scrape one across
early Manufacturer when steal a base, steal third, terranguves to
try to steal third if he can get the chance
to do it. And then if you're sitting there and
one nothing and it's a tight game, I think you've
got a pretty good bet with that. Brewers first five.
Speaker 2: I think that the most mettable thing in this is
probably Brewis first five. I like the half run. I'll
go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: To me, the biggest key that not a lot of
people have talked about in this is the Brewers liked
to around. The Brewers have a lot of speed. Who
is the catcher for the doggies? Smith? You don't run
on Smith? Smith is John. That's going to change the
entire trajectory of this series. Now Smith happens to be
d H and Milwaukee will run like crazy. So pay
attention to when line who's going to be in the cutcher.
Speaker 4: Their last game, Smith Smith picked off a guy at
second man. He threw it right on.
Speaker 3: It was a laser laser.
Speaker 4: He's got a great arm, yeah, amazing. One thing about Otani,
he's one I think one for thirteen or maybe even worse. Now.
He's ice cold in the playoffs, so he's doing his
best A Rod impression in the playoffs. We'll see. I
can't say Judge and anymore because Judge just cranked the
ball this year in the playoffs for his first time
in his career. But uh, Otani's ice cold, so he's
going to break out here or not. I kind of
think he's not. But then again, when I bad mouthed people,
look where the Brewers are now. So we'll see. But
someone in the comments said that Otani's hits runs RBI's
prop was two and a half. I don't see him
getting three hits runs RBIs, But I mean that might
be a good under for that one. If we're thinking
that the whole game is going to be an under
and Otani's ice cold right now.
Speaker 1: Don Dixon, he says Milwaukee went three and over sol
A this year. They actually went six and oh Dodgers
all six times. And it was it was within the
span of a week or so. It was that stretch
before the All Star break and then coming out of
the All Star break where the Dodgers looked very uninterested.
And now I would say that they're interested. So go
back around the horn, Brian. Do you put any stock
into those six regular season meetings?
Speaker 4: Oh, you have to.
Speaker 3: I don't not because of the Dodgers. The Dodgers, as
we've said all the year long, they win the games
they come in to play for, and they're so good
they could set games out a lot of times. It
does have some meaning in this one. I totally know
there is no meaning. In Milwaukee. Was the team playing
the champions they wanted to. They're the team that was
having the season where they wanted to show the show
me season. It was much more important for them during
the regular season. Now the Dodgers know that if they lose,
they're out of the playoffs. It's a fully different ballgame.
Speaker 4: On the one hand, it shows me that they're capable
of beating this team number one. On the other hand,
the Dodgers did not have Sasaki pitching closing games, and
they didn't have Will Smith at the time either, or
did they. I think he was out at that time,
So a couple couple factors there. But if you can
beat a team six games in a row, I don't
think you can ignore that. So I think it shows
that they're capable of winning. So mentally it will give
him a little bit of a little bit of a
confidence I think, maybe, but maybe not. Maybe no factor
on the outcome, but.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think that. Why would the Brewers
feel like they're not capable of winning. They were the
bank basically the best team in the National League all
year one and then two. Someone in the chat says,
Will Smith's been listen. Will Smith's going to start. That's
a guarantee. The only thing we're talking about is whether
he's going to start at DH or behind the plate,
because coming off injury, they're not going to start him
every single game behind the plate. And of course this
would be where you'd have to maybe make a decision
because they got to play tomorrow.
Speaker 2: As well. I'm with you, Brian.
Speaker 1: If if Will Smith is at the DH spot and
he's not behind the plate, that is a huge, huge
advantage for Milwaukee because they can definitely run on vit
or whoever would be. I don't know who they're going
to have back there, but it would be much much
more likely they can run, and that might be the
path to scraping a run across off snows. So we'll
be interesting to see who they how the Dodgers line
up in this game. But Smith will definitely be in
the lineup.
Speaker 4: And Milwaukee is a small ball team and they have
one elite base dealer and they have several decent ones,
but they're masters at manufacturing runs. So Will Smith would
be a huge, huge difference. On his defense. That man,
he's got a laser arm. That was amazing that throw
he made.
Speaker 1: David said Milwaukee look vulnerable against the Cubs, Like I
feel like we're not giving the Cubs enough credit. I mean,
the Cubs were very, very good team this year. Those
are two division rivals.
Speaker 4: Like the series wins than the Dodgers, more wins than
the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: I don't know why anyone would be surprised that that
was a competitive series that that really like went both ways.
So again, maybe maybe the Brewers are a little undervalue.
Just in general, I think the Brewers are a really
good baseball team. Like I'm with you on this, on
the thought process that the Dodgers are probably the best
team of the four that are still left. But let's
not sleep on the Brewers here. This is a very
capable team, arguably as complete of an offense as you're
going to find. Where they'll hit the ball at the ballpark,
they'll they'll steal bases, they'll play small ball. It should
be a very it should be a very competitive game, right,
I don't it's kind of tough. I think you can
make a very good case for both sides here.
Speaker 4: The Dodgers are not overrated. By the way, now.
Speaker 3: The Dodgers one favorite to win the series, even though
Milwaukee has the home advantage, tells who the Dodgers are
the best team here? Uh TB did not do any
promotions when we started, so I want to do a promotion.
I don't know. I think today's a special day in Canada.
I don't know. I don't remember what it is that.
Speaker 2: They're Thanksgiving is.
Speaker 3: Because they have some holidays. We don't have any United
States so I don't know much about it. But Canada
is hockey and there are hockey games starting in less
than three hours going all day long. If you're a
hockey fan, great day to be watching hockey. I put
out a five percent play in the NHL today, my
first five percent of the season and number one all
time in NHL net profit in hockey. Over at ways
you talk and great card. I've got two plays up
right now for clients. I'll be doing a little bit more.
If I do put anything up in baseball, it's probably
going to be the over in that Seattle Toronto game.
So save yourself some money. You don't need to buy
that from me, and if you are interested in it,
five percents there. In hockey, also, we talked a little
bit about college football. They do have that weekend Warriors package.
Last weekend was very successful for me. I'm an eleven
and three run in college football, so once they put
that up, you can get nice savings on the weekend.
If they do do that again this week, it's early.
I don't know what their promotion are. Keep in mind
well that I always try to do something for the
weekend for football fans.
Speaker 4: I have a couple of Major League Baseball plays up today,
and I have a EuroLeague play up. Wager talk allows
us to price our Major League Baseball plays at nine
dollars aside from any five percent plays. Five percent plays
a regular price, but you can get a four percent
play if one of us puts it out for nine bucks.
That's a normally twenty five dollars. So just take a
look at our page at wager talk dot com, and
we usually put free plays out too, so click the
free plays link at wager talk dot com and you
can see twenty cappers free plays all free play Bonanza.
Originally I wanted to name this show Baseball Bonanza, but
Adam came up with the name Total Bases, So Total Bases.
Speaker 2: It was less. It's less of amouthful.
Speaker 4: I don't know why.
Speaker 2: I just like it.
Speaker 3: Act was, why the hell am I doing this at
six o'clock in the morning.
Speaker 4: When I was in America?
Speaker 1: I felt that way too, Yeah, yeah, it's it's it's
earlier for you guys. I nine nine am Eastern is
like the perfect time for the show. I probably have
a hard time if I was doing this on on
Vegas time as well.
Speaker 2: That that's tough.
Speaker 1: I always anytime I'm out visiting out there, it always,
it always messes me up. Being that early book of
chewing the chat he's he does a lot of streaming.
To appreciate him, stop and buy uh and if again,
I'll i'll I don't have a play up yet for tonight,
I will say this, I hit a I cast my
five percent play yesterday with the Arizona Cardinals in the NFL.
I'm on a really good NFL run, and with two
NFL games tonight, I may run it back with another
five percenter.
Speaker 2: So keep an eye out on that.
Speaker 1: I I don't know if I think if I have
any MLB action tonight, I'll probably just post it on
my page for free. So make sure that you are
always checking the wager talk website. We have a free
picks tab that list everyone that puts a free pick up.
It's it's right there all in order. We try to
do it as many times a week as possible, so
so check out the free picks tab at wager Talk.
And if you are in the area, if you are
in any sort of proximity to Central New York, We've
got a great watch party at Turningstone Resort Casino tonight, Verona,
New York. Very easy to get to. Uh, it's in
the middle of We're in the middle of nowhere out here,
so there's plenty of parking. It's it's it's really it's
not in a city or anything. It's it's easy in,
easy out, a bunch of places to stay. But I'll
be down here tonight from probably the start of the
Jay's game till the end of the football game, so
pretty much all night. I'll buy you a drink. They
have some great specials and we're just going to be
hanging out. So I know we have some guys in
the I know we have some guys in the chat
that are in Central New York.
Speaker 4: You know what.
Speaker 1: Actually, we have a bunch of guys that watch the
show that are from Canada, and a bunch of them
came down when we did one during March Madness, so
that that's a great way to spend your Canadian Thanksgiving.
Come on down here watch watch the Bills. Uh was
here for the Yankees watch party last week.
Speaker 2: It was great.
Speaker 1: Central New York is very much Bill's Mafia country, so
we'll have a great crowd in attendance tonight and yeah
happy do people like?
Speaker 4: Like?
Speaker 1: Do does pres like say happy Thanksgiving the people and
then cook a turkey?
Speaker 2: Is that not how it goes?
Speaker 4: I need to know this.
Speaker 1: We need to ask our mind pres. Are they having
like turkey and like stuffing and stuff today? I know
there's a CFL football game on it one, so they
do the football thing. It's probably hockey all day.
Speaker 4: I gotta they probably drink maple syrup and have some
Moosehead beer and watch hockey or something.
Speaker 3: We'll check in with so we have they're gonna be
on the most wanted list when you go to Canada.
Speaker 1: We got quite a few people at wager Talk that
that are from Canada, so we'll need to get I'll
need to get a We got ask President and Andrew
and Carmi how they spend Canadian Thanksgiving, which I'm sure
we'll be watching hockey. So if you're gonna watch hockey
all day, check out Brian Leonards five percent plays absolutely absolutely.
Speaker 4: Brian doesn't put out a lot of five percenters, and
when he does, he usually wins them. Can I mention
one thing that Ralph put in our post sport here
he said that home favorites awful loss since twenty sixteen
are twenty and twenty six in game two, with an
average line of minus one forty two. The home favorites
after losing game one, they generally will lose game two.
If they're favorite in game two too. That's not good
news for the Toronto Blue Jays anyways.
Speaker 3: That's just as the American stats though, right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Canadians, yeah they do.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they have Canadian teams in this far in the
playoffs are not lost in like how many years now.
Speaker 4: They drink maple so and they do it by the
metric system.
Speaker 3: World about the metric system, it's the United States is
screwed it all up.
Speaker 4: I learned the metric system living out here.
Speaker 3: They taught us the metric system one year when I
was in school, and that was it.
Speaker 4: I think it was seventy.
Speaker 3: It's too hard. It goes on basis of ten.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, we'd rather do ounces and leaders or whatever
they do.
Speaker 1: Ethan Bainbridge says, flying in New York City, it's his
first time in New York.
Speaker 2: Where I am in New York.
Speaker 1: Could not be more different there. It is like a
different country here than New York City. To get to
hear from New York City, you'd have to hop another
flight and come to Syracuse. But it is, uh, we're
out in the country. Central New York is very rural,
so that is it's very But enjoy New York City
because that is that is an experience I can't imagine.
I've been so many times at this point, I can't
imagine like going for the first time. But it's it's
got to be a that'll be a shock and in
a good way. It's it's very cool city. Yeah, ts
Fox as New York City is in other world.
Speaker 2: That is that is very, very true.
Speaker 1: Anyone have anything to any more closing thoughts, We've done
our promos. We've broke down both games as as thoroughly
as we possibly can.
Speaker 2: Anything else.
Speaker 4: I'm not bashing Canada, you guys. I love Canada. I've
never been there, but everyone from Canada is much nicer
than everyone from America from my experience, So.
Speaker 3: Cross that's a Canadian. I hope he has ever his
bands from the United States, so Canada to keep them.
That makes me a favorite of Canada's right there. Just
for keeping the press.
Speaker 4: I think Carmine's kindness. Trump's Pres is awkwardness.
Speaker 3: Andrew Trump, not Trump.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 4: Pres Pres is actually a nice guy, but he doesn't
want people to know it.
Speaker 2: Oh he's the best, He's the best.
Speaker 1: He he to go to a Grateful Dead concert with
him and it got canceled, but he was still in
Saratoga Springs and we we hit me Mallory, Prez and
and Vivian went out for the night.
Speaker 2: Had it at absolute last. He's he's he's a great time.
So shout shout out to Press.
Speaker 1: But I do want to I do want to hit
the Canadians up and see I'm curious if their Thanksgiving
is like ours. So we'll have to We'll have to
a good topic for end Zone Live this week. Hey Press,
how is how is Canadian Thanksgiving? Since we have four
hours to fill while we watch football games, we'll uh, well, well,
maybe we'll ask him on that show.
Speaker 4: Basically four hours of Pres complaining about.
Speaker 3: His Yes, pretty much, Yeah, a sixty year old guy
complaining about his bad TV.
Speaker 4: He's looking to him.
Speaker 1: He has been lighting it up on that show with
in game bats. Shout out his in game bets on
that show. Have got to be hitting out like a
seventy percent. Well, that's one thing if you tune on it,
we do. We do a football stream on Sundays. It's
called end Zone Live, give out a lot of in
play stuff. Pres has been deadly on that show with
his in play NFL bet So promo for for end
Zone Live. That's every Sunday on wager Talk TV at
one o'clock. We're gonna wrap it up. We've got two
baseball games tonight. We will be back tomorrow morning to
talk Brewers Dodgers Game two. If you can make it
the Central New York come hang with me tonight at
Turning Storm Resort Casino. The sports book is called New
York Wreck and Social Club. That's where we'll be for
the Bills game and the baseball games. Thank you, guys,
to all you do. Continue to tune into this show
as we get to the end of the season. It
is far exceeded our expectations. We very much appreciate it.
Like subscribe, drop a comment if you if you if
you're on the replay, it helps the show tremendously and
we'll see you guys in the morning tomorrow nine am
for more total basis.
Speaker 2: Have a great day, everyone,