WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.439 --> 00:00:06.440 It's Nightside with Dan Ray. I'm Deli Fleas Boston Video. 2 00:00:08.000 --> 00:00:11.480 Welcome back everyone as we head into our ten o'clock 3 00:00:11.519 --> 00:00:15.800 hour here on Tuesday night, the twenty ninth of October. 4 00:00:15.839 --> 00:00:18.760 My name is Dan Ray. As we move our way towards. 5 00:00:19.120 --> 00:00:24.239 Midnight, I'm delighted to welcome back a very important figure 6 00:00:24.280 --> 00:00:26.679 at this time of the year every quadrennial, but he's 7 00:00:26.719 --> 00:00:29.320 an important figure throughout all the time as far as 8 00:00:29.399 --> 00:00:35.200 I'm concerned, Suffolk University poster Spencer Kimball, who's developed really 9 00:00:35.280 --> 00:00:37.240 quite a reputation. 10 00:00:36.880 --> 00:00:41.799 For Suffolk University with the polls that he does for 11 00:00:42.359 --> 00:00:46.880 so many clients. Spencer Kimball, welcome back to Nightside, Dan. 12 00:00:47.000 --> 00:00:50.799 And thanks again for having me as always absolutely so. 13 00:00:50.880 --> 00:00:54.359 Tell us how many different You don't have to give 14 00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:57.039 me the names of all the clients, but Suffolk you 15 00:00:57.439 --> 00:01:00.359 do a lot of polling, not only for Suffolk but 16 00:01:00.439 --> 00:01:04.159 also for other institutions and corporations. 17 00:01:04.159 --> 00:01:08.480 Correct, well, Dan, you got me backwards. Remember I went 18 00:01:08.519 --> 00:01:11.799 to Suffolk, studied with Dave and now I'm over at Emerson. 19 00:01:12.239 --> 00:01:12.920 But we run. 20 00:01:13.599 --> 00:01:14.959 Yeah, you know, I apologie. 21 00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:18.239 First of all, I totally apologize. I totally apologize. I 22 00:01:18.280 --> 00:01:21.719 was doing a couple of things. It's Emerson College. My mistake, 23 00:01:21.840 --> 00:01:25.840 that is, that's a mortal sin here to mix you up. 24 00:01:25.840 --> 00:01:28.400 Now there on the other side of a common we're friends. 25 00:01:28.519 --> 00:01:31.120 No, no, no, no, no, I totally get so tell 26 00:01:31.200 --> 00:01:33.480 us about Emerson, because what I meant is that that 27 00:01:33.680 --> 00:01:36.680 I see all the national polls, and there's a couple 28 00:01:36.760 --> 00:01:39.319 of other universities around the country. But both Dave Pale 29 00:01:39.439 --> 00:01:41.680 Loogus at Suffolk and you at Emerson, and thank you 30 00:01:41.719 --> 00:01:44.799 for being a very gentle correction. You should have yelled 31 00:01:44.799 --> 00:01:47.799 at me because I totally blanked out, and I apologize 32 00:01:47.799 --> 00:01:50.079 for that. I'm there trying to do three or four 33 00:01:50.120 --> 00:01:53.400 things simultaneously here and I sometimes have a tough time 34 00:01:53.400 --> 00:01:56.120 doing one one thing, well, signed one thing. 35 00:01:56.159 --> 00:01:58.239 Well, so who else? I mean? Why? 36 00:01:58.319 --> 00:02:03.159 How has Suffolk gotten How has Emerson gotten such a 37 00:02:03.719 --> 00:02:06.519 really great reputation amongst the polling community. 38 00:02:07.959 --> 00:02:12.599 Well, first, you know, it's great to hear that reputation 39 00:02:12.759 --> 00:02:16.479 exists within your space, and that's what we try to 40 00:02:16.520 --> 00:02:21.759 work to achieve. What essentially helped us create the space 41 00:02:22.159 --> 00:02:26.800 is innovation in data collection. And it's not the most 42 00:02:27.000 --> 00:02:29.520 exciting thing to talk about. But if we just think 43 00:02:29.560 --> 00:02:33.479 about the ways we communicate today the way we communicated 44 00:02:33.639 --> 00:02:39.159 forty years ago. It's really leaps and bounds in lifestyle 45 00:02:39.280 --> 00:02:45.960 differences and in communication. So what we've done at Emerson 46 00:02:46.159 --> 00:02:49.840 is we study communication and we look at, well, what's 47 00:02:49.879 --> 00:02:53.599 the way people are communicating. In about ten twelve years ago, 48 00:02:53.919 --> 00:02:59.120 we kind of restarted the survey and polling program and 49 00:02:59.400 --> 00:03:03.319 used new ways of data collection to kind of test 50 00:03:03.319 --> 00:03:07.960 it out in the academic world. So it's happening in industry, 51 00:03:08.439 --> 00:03:12.360 but in the universities and colleges, we were generally collecting 52 00:03:12.439 --> 00:03:16.400 data using live operators and we'd call people up and 53 00:03:16.599 --> 00:03:21.159 ask them their questions. But as technology has evolved, what 54 00:03:21.199 --> 00:03:25.680 we're doing today is text messaging people. We're sending out emails. 55 00:03:26.680 --> 00:03:29.840 We use automated phone calls where people don't have to 56 00:03:29.919 --> 00:03:33.319 they can use their keypads to answer surveys, and they 57 00:03:33.319 --> 00:03:36.759 can even enter into panels. And these innovations is kind 58 00:03:36.800 --> 00:03:41.639 of leading the forefront of the survey industry, and that's 59 00:03:41.680 --> 00:03:45.639 what gives us these opportunities. And the pre election polling 60 00:03:46.560 --> 00:03:48.919 for us is the canary and the coal mine. We 61 00:03:49.000 --> 00:03:52.400 get to test out these different methodologies. You know, is 62 00:03:52.400 --> 00:03:54.800 there a difference between a text message poll and an 63 00:03:54.879 --> 00:03:59.039 online poll, or what about a survey that has people 64 00:03:59.120 --> 00:04:02.319 opt in to participate in it. You know, anybody can 65 00:04:02.319 --> 00:04:05.039 come take this survey at some of these groups, how 66 00:04:05.080 --> 00:04:09.000 do those work? And the elections give us a chance 67 00:04:09.080 --> 00:04:12.240 to kind of test out what methods are better, and 68 00:04:12.280 --> 00:04:16.079 then we use that information to do other survey work, 69 00:04:16.120 --> 00:04:18.360 which is a much larger industry. And I think that's 70 00:04:18.399 --> 00:04:21.439 what you're alluding to with some of those other clients, 71 00:04:22.000 --> 00:04:26.079 and that can range from the San Francisco Police Department, 72 00:04:26.519 --> 00:04:29.160 who we currently are just finishing a study for, to 73 00:04:29.639 --> 00:04:35.240 Common Good Index, to different associations. We do a holiday 74 00:04:35.279 --> 00:04:38.920 study on footwear. We do a lot of health communication 75 00:04:39.160 --> 00:04:47.000 on vaccines and bird flu and other areas that traditionally 76 00:04:47.079 --> 00:04:51.360 may have been very expensive to conduct this type of research. 77 00:04:51.480 --> 00:04:54.600 But because technology has evolved and we don't have to 78 00:04:54.639 --> 00:04:58.959 pay operators to call people, we are able to bring 79 00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:01.720 down the cost of some of the data collection, which 80 00:05:01.759 --> 00:05:06.480 gives us really valuable information. And in some areas, obviously, 81 00:05:06.519 --> 00:05:09.800 election polls have value, but some of the areas in 82 00:05:09.879 --> 00:05:15.680 health communication and other market research also has value as well. 83 00:05:16.759 --> 00:05:19.759 So let me ask you this question, Okay, In the 84 00:05:19.800 --> 00:05:24.759 old days you would rely upon and maybe these were 85 00:05:24.839 --> 00:05:28.600 days even before when you were involved. In the old days, 86 00:05:28.639 --> 00:05:32.639 posters rely upon the white pages in the phone book 87 00:05:33.319 --> 00:05:35.920 and they would they would, that's how they would find 88 00:05:35.959 --> 00:05:41.600 people's numbers. Now, how do you find people's cell phone numbers? 89 00:05:41.319 --> 00:05:44.279 There's no I'm sure there's somewhere that my cell phone 90 00:05:44.360 --> 00:05:47.480 number is listed, but it's not available to you as 91 00:05:47.519 --> 00:05:48.920 a polster, or maybe it is. 92 00:05:50.759 --> 00:05:55.800 Well, Dan, that too has evolved over so telephones become 93 00:05:56.160 --> 00:05:59.920 the major mode of data collection starting in the nineteen seventies. 94 00:06:00.279 --> 00:06:02.160 And you know at and t let your fingers do 95 00:06:02.279 --> 00:06:07.279 the you know talking, well anyways, the walking, let your 96 00:06:07.279 --> 00:06:11.519 fingers do the walking, and so, uh, you can see, 97 00:06:11.680 --> 00:06:15.360 telephones are there, and polsters were using something called random 98 00:06:15.399 --> 00:06:19.079 digit dialing where they would create root numbers based on 99 00:06:19.240 --> 00:06:22.240 area codes and then you'd have roots and then a 100 00:06:22.319 --> 00:06:25.920 random number. And what happens in random digit dialing is 101 00:06:25.959 --> 00:06:28.959 everybody could be included. So if you're a doctor and 102 00:06:29.000 --> 00:06:32.360 you had an unlisted number, well, random digit dialing would. 103 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:33.079 Find that number. 104 00:06:34.600 --> 00:06:39.079 Now, in the era of landlines, and now you got 105 00:06:39.079 --> 00:06:42.399 to remember, you also were calling libraries and hospitals and 106 00:06:42.800 --> 00:06:45.920 other random numbers that you have to be very careful about, 107 00:06:46.000 --> 00:06:50.000 you know, calling and soliciting that process became expensive, so 108 00:06:50.040 --> 00:06:55.839 they moved to using registered voter lists or registered based 109 00:06:56.720 --> 00:06:59.839 sampling back in like the nineteen nineties and into the 110 00:07:00.199 --> 00:07:04.319 the beginning of this of this century, where I know 111 00:07:04.439 --> 00:07:07.920 you think that like you know, you register to vote 112 00:07:08.399 --> 00:07:11.639 and there's your name and your address, but there's a 113 00:07:11.639 --> 00:07:15.839 lot of companies out there that append the data back 114 00:07:15.959 --> 00:07:20.639 to you. So we do have a database of you know, 115 00:07:21.560 --> 00:07:26.000 I think it's well over two hundred and seventy million 116 00:07:27.360 --> 00:07:29.560 points of contact with I think about one hundred and 117 00:07:29.639 --> 00:07:33.319 forty million cell phones, one hundred and thirty million cell phones. 118 00:07:34.519 --> 00:07:38.000 So we've got a large database to pull from. And 119 00:07:38.000 --> 00:07:38.639 that's where so. 120 00:07:39.680 --> 00:07:42.480 I'm not doing when you're going for cell phone because 121 00:07:42.560 --> 00:07:44.680 more people, more and more people every year have got 122 00:07:44.720 --> 00:07:47.199 rid of the landline and now we're cell phone dependent. 123 00:07:47.720 --> 00:07:53.079 And you're saying that when you want to call someone 124 00:07:53.120 --> 00:07:57.920 that fits my profile, you you you're not random dialing 125 00:07:57.959 --> 00:08:00.120 and saying to the person, well, how old are you, 126 00:08:00.160 --> 00:08:04.160 what's your ethnicity? Are you a Democrat, Republican, unenrolled, et cetera. 127 00:08:04.319 --> 00:08:09.439 You have an idea when you when that number dials, Uh, 128 00:08:10.040 --> 00:08:11.160 who that person is? 129 00:08:11.199 --> 00:08:12.800 Who's going to pick up that phone? 130 00:08:14.040 --> 00:08:14.240 Yeah. 131 00:08:14.240 --> 00:08:16.680 In fact, when you get these texts, when you get 132 00:08:16.720 --> 00:08:19.120 the text message, it's going to say, hi Dan, will 133 00:08:19.160 --> 00:08:23.920 you take the survey? It's personalized and that's how that's 134 00:08:23.920 --> 00:08:27.079 how much we know who's taking it now. To me, 135 00:08:27.160 --> 00:08:30.519 there's an issue with personalizing it too much because there's 136 00:08:30.519 --> 00:08:33.279 you want to be anonymous and confidential. There's the reason 137 00:08:33.320 --> 00:08:36.200 why we have a secret ballot in this country. And 138 00:08:37.200 --> 00:08:41.600 you know, the survey is intended to be anonymous, and 139 00:08:41.679 --> 00:08:46.840 so we sometimes yeah, and to help keep people honest, 140 00:08:46.879 --> 00:08:50.960 and you know, we think about are you comfortable if 141 00:08:50.960 --> 00:08:53.519 somebody calls you up and says, you know, hi Dan? 142 00:08:54.080 --> 00:08:57.279 You know the suspense and you're like, who's Spence? And 143 00:08:57.759 --> 00:09:00.480 how do you know my name? So as to if 144 00:09:00.480 --> 00:09:03.120 you get a text message from Emerson College that says, hey, 145 00:09:03.120 --> 00:09:06.320 you want to take an Emerson College poll. As you mentioned, 146 00:09:06.360 --> 00:09:08.200 a lot of people have heard of the Emerson College 147 00:09:08.200 --> 00:09:12.600 poll and they might be willing to participate and share 148 00:09:12.639 --> 00:09:14.879 their opinions with us for us to be able to 149 00:09:14.960 --> 00:09:16.440 represent public opinion. 150 00:09:17.679 --> 00:09:19.240 My guest is Spencer Kimball. 151 00:09:19.600 --> 00:09:24.159 He is the polling guru if you will, for Emerson 152 00:09:24.279 --> 00:09:27.600 College has done a great job this. I've never really 153 00:09:27.639 --> 00:09:29.799 had a chance to drill down and understand this, so 154 00:09:30.240 --> 00:09:32.840 I'm learning something. I hope some of you are as well. 155 00:09:33.240 --> 00:09:37.879 When I get back, I'm going to tell you an 156 00:09:37.919 --> 00:09:40.919 anonymous text that I got tonight. I don't think it 157 00:09:40.960 --> 00:09:43.320 was directed at me, but you're going to break it 158 00:09:43.399 --> 00:09:45.200 down for me when I explain to see I think 159 00:09:45.240 --> 00:09:47.320 you'll get a kick out of it, and then we 160 00:09:47.399 --> 00:09:50.000 will talk, assuming that you're willing to talk about what 161 00:09:50.039 --> 00:09:52.960 you're seeing in the polls, in your polls and other polls. 162 00:09:53.000 --> 00:09:55.960 As we are now really less than a week away 163 00:09:56.039 --> 00:09:58.720 from November fifth, something that many of us have had 164 00:09:58.879 --> 00:10:02.200 marked on our calendar for years, and now it is. 165 00:10:03.360 --> 00:10:06.960 It's almost here. So I'm excited about it. I want 166 00:10:07.000 --> 00:10:10.240 to talk with Spencer about it, and I hope some 167 00:10:10.279 --> 00:10:12.120 of you might want to call and ask Spencer a 168 00:10:12.200 --> 00:10:13.279 question if you'd like. 169 00:10:13.440 --> 00:10:14.039 Feel free. 170 00:10:14.879 --> 00:10:16.639 The number that we give out it's not my cell 171 00:10:16.639 --> 00:10:19.639 phone number, it's the WBC call line six one seven, 172 00:10:19.799 --> 00:10:22.519 two five four ten thirty six one seven nine three 173 00:10:22.600 --> 00:10:25.480 one ten thirty Spencer. I could talk with you about 174 00:10:25.480 --> 00:10:27.440 this stuff all night. I don't want to have used 175 00:10:27.440 --> 00:10:31.000 your time. Just tell my producer what your time living is. 176 00:10:31.039 --> 00:10:33.159 If if I if we're done at ten thirty and 177 00:10:33.200 --> 00:10:34.720 you've got something you got to do in the. 178 00:10:34.639 --> 00:10:36.879 Morning, please I'll uh if you can. 179 00:10:36.759 --> 00:10:38.360 Stay a little later. I'd love to have you stay 180 00:10:38.399 --> 00:10:40.639 a little later. But that's your call, and just talk 181 00:10:40.679 --> 00:10:43.240 to my producer. The other Dan on the board tonight, 182 00:10:43.320 --> 00:10:46.879 Rob is off, So Dan is our other producer tonight, 183 00:10:47.200 --> 00:10:50.159 be back with your phone calls along with Spencer Kimball, 184 00:10:50.679 --> 00:10:56.000 Emerson University pollster based here in Boston, Massachusetts, but with 185 00:10:56.120 --> 00:10:59.200 a very long reach around the country. Back on Nightside 186 00:10:59.279 --> 00:10:59.639 after this. 187 00:11:01.000 --> 00:11:04.200 Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World 188 00:11:04.279 --> 00:11:07.440 night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio. 189 00:11:08.720 --> 00:11:12.679 I'm talking with my friend Spencer Kimball. He is a pollster. 190 00:11:13.399 --> 00:11:16.240 He and Dave Paleo Logus and John Zogby, I think 191 00:11:16.279 --> 00:11:18.360 are the three best posters in the country. 192 00:11:18.360 --> 00:11:20.879 We'll have Dave with us tomorrow night. We had Spencer 193 00:11:20.919 --> 00:11:23.480 with us a week ago. Dave was with us as well. 194 00:11:25.120 --> 00:11:29.480 Spencer's I get this text tonight, okay, and I want 195 00:11:29.519 --> 00:11:30.960 you to interpret. 196 00:11:31.000 --> 00:11:32.519 I think you're gonna get get it. Get a kick 197 00:11:32.559 --> 00:11:33.440 out of this here ready. 198 00:11:34.759 --> 00:11:37.919 No, No one should know my cell phone number except 199 00:11:37.960 --> 00:11:41.360 people like you, friends of mine, or family members, et cetera. 200 00:11:41.440 --> 00:11:45.919 Okay, so I get a text earlier this evening. 201 00:11:46.360 --> 00:11:52.440 Hi Stephen. My name is not Stephen. Okay, my middle 202 00:11:52.559 --> 00:11:56.960 name is not Stephen. Hi Stephen. I'm Matt, a volunteer 203 00:11:57.000 --> 00:12:01.720 with Swing Left. Our call oween phone Bank to call 204 00:12:01.799 --> 00:12:09.600 voters in Wisconsin with special guests including Katherine Hahn, Natasha Rothwell, 205 00:12:10.240 --> 00:12:14.519 Busy Phillips, and Moore will be on Wednesday, October thirtieth 206 00:12:14.559 --> 00:12:18.840 at seven pm Eastern time. We'd love to see you there. 207 00:12:19.200 --> 00:12:20.159 Will you join us? 208 00:12:21.360 --> 00:12:21.639 Now? 209 00:12:24.399 --> 00:12:27.279 You're you're more hip than I am, Spencer, but I 210 00:12:27.279 --> 00:12:30.440 have no idea. Who's Katherine Hahn? Do you have an idea? 211 00:12:32.080 --> 00:12:35.159 No? Unless they're running for office? Not my department. I 212 00:12:35.200 --> 00:12:36.159 have people I work with. 213 00:12:37.799 --> 00:12:39.600 An actress, Dan telling me? 214 00:12:40.159 --> 00:12:40.279 Is it? 215 00:12:40.399 --> 00:12:44.720 Dan's telling me an actress? Okay? Dan? What about Natasha Rothwell? 216 00:12:46.720 --> 00:12:51.600 That one? He doesn't know? What about Busy Phillips? Okay? 217 00:12:51.639 --> 00:12:54.320 So we got Dan the producers one out of three? 218 00:12:54.600 --> 00:12:58.600 So will you join us at rapid recruit dot Org. 219 00:12:58.720 --> 00:13:00.799 I have no idea what that is, but I assume 220 00:13:01.039 --> 00:13:04.720 since it's entitled Swing Left. It's probably not my cup 221 00:13:04.759 --> 00:13:08.240 of tea politically, but here's how I answered this. Okay, 222 00:13:09.240 --> 00:13:12.480 I hope I haven't broken any federal law here, but 223 00:13:13.279 --> 00:13:16.679 your confession is good for the soul. I responded, I'll 224 00:13:16.679 --> 00:13:19.639 go to Wisconsin to help. I have lots of cash 225 00:13:19.679 --> 00:13:20.559 to bring with me. 226 00:13:24.080 --> 00:13:25.200 Out to the Badger State. 227 00:13:27.919 --> 00:13:28.480 I hope they. 228 00:13:28.440 --> 00:13:31.879 Don't get too excited or something that Steven is going 229 00:13:31.960 --> 00:13:35.440 to actually go there. But I thought to myself, I'm 230 00:13:35.480 --> 00:13:37.919 receiving this is from area Coach six 't eighty one, 231 00:13:37.919 --> 00:13:40.879 which I checked out, which is actually West Virginia. So 232 00:13:41.360 --> 00:13:45.000 there's a phone bank in West Virginia that's called Swing 233 00:13:45.120 --> 00:13:49.840 Left that's going to be calling people in Wisconsin. It's 234 00:13:49.879 --> 00:13:52.480 just the way we communicate these days is fascinating. 235 00:13:52.600 --> 00:13:54.879 So the question, then, and the reason I told you 236 00:13:54.919 --> 00:13:58.240 this story, is if this had been. 237 00:13:58.080 --> 00:14:04.759 As survey, it said, Hi, Steven, you know, somehow, some 238 00:14:04.840 --> 00:14:07.600 way this my number is associated with with someone named 239 00:14:07.600 --> 00:14:09.440 Stephen I have known, and by the way, I've had 240 00:14:09.440 --> 00:14:13.559 this phone for a long time. So if this was 241 00:14:13.600 --> 00:14:15.840 a poll, I could answer anything. I could tell them 242 00:14:15.879 --> 00:14:19.480 that I wanted, you know, Trotsky or Lemon or Lenin 243 00:14:19.559 --> 00:14:25.399 to be president, it wouldn't matter. But how tough is 244 00:14:25.440 --> 00:14:30.080 it as a polster whose reputation depends on the accuracy 245 00:14:30.080 --> 00:14:35.399 of the polls you conduct to make sure you know 246 00:14:35.480 --> 00:14:37.720 who you're talking to and that you have some idea 247 00:14:37.759 --> 00:14:39.200 about what their background is. 248 00:14:40.879 --> 00:14:44.759 Well, you know, that's the challenge and why some folks 249 00:14:45.519 --> 00:14:49.679 question not using live operators, because with a live operator, 250 00:14:49.879 --> 00:14:53.440 you know that you're talking to somebody. You know it's 251 00:14:53.480 --> 00:14:56.200 not a child. You know, you could ask them their 252 00:14:56.320 --> 00:14:59.799 name to verify it, and some posters do that in 253 00:15:00.080 --> 00:15:03.080 these news systems. And where the future is going to 254 00:15:03.159 --> 00:15:06.399 go is within these panels where people have opted in 255 00:15:07.120 --> 00:15:10.600 and they're getting rewarded to take the surveys. We're already 256 00:15:10.639 --> 00:15:13.799 seeing it to some degree today, but in you know 257 00:15:13.879 --> 00:15:16.919 the next three to five years, it'll be even bigger 258 00:15:17.080 --> 00:15:22.360 business in these panels. And in those cases, those folks 259 00:15:22.480 --> 00:15:27.879 you'll already have that demographic data on them. Obviously, they 260 00:15:27.879 --> 00:15:31.120 can still not tell you the truth about their opinions, 261 00:15:31.200 --> 00:15:34.200 or their opinions can also change. You know, you can 262 00:15:34.360 --> 00:15:37.159 wake up happy and you know how things going great, 263 00:15:37.240 --> 00:15:42.039 and by four o'clock you're like, was the tough day? 264 00:15:42.480 --> 00:15:47.840 The opinions change and but with that, we do have 265 00:15:47.919 --> 00:15:51.919 a few ways of testing within the survey of if 266 00:15:51.960 --> 00:15:55.559 somebody is just like flicking through it and not pressing 267 00:15:55.679 --> 00:16:00.960 or randomly you know, answering questions or UH has to make. 268 00:16:00.799 --> 00:16:02.679 Sure, okay, speczer. 269 00:16:02.720 --> 00:16:06.559 Do you over sample so that if you're looking to 270 00:16:06.600 --> 00:16:09.480 get a poll, let's say a national poll of one 271 00:16:09.519 --> 00:16:14.519 thousand legitimate voters, which are a portion between fifty states 272 00:16:14.559 --> 00:16:18.679 and balance between men and women, Republicans, Democrats, independence and 273 00:16:18.720 --> 00:16:22.159 all of that, do you over sample so you'll have 274 00:16:22.240 --> 00:16:25.000 fifteen hundred or you'll have five thousand, and you can 275 00:16:25.559 --> 00:16:27.480 you can sort of prone out the ones that you 276 00:16:27.519 --> 00:16:30.240 think are responsive and. 277 00:16:32.480 --> 00:16:36.080 Legitimate or or can you not do that at this point? 278 00:16:36.759 --> 00:16:40.879 No, you certainly, you certainly go through that process. You know, 279 00:16:40.960 --> 00:16:43.039 for example, you can see how long it took the 280 00:16:43.080 --> 00:16:46.759 person to take the survey, somebody who took it within 281 00:16:46.879 --> 00:16:54.279 thirty seconds. It raises an eyebrow. Those there's some mechanics 282 00:16:54.279 --> 00:16:57.759 that we can see, you know, behind the curtain that 283 00:16:57.840 --> 00:17:02.320 allows us to know where they are are and other 284 00:17:02.399 --> 00:17:06.400 bits of information there. So there are things. But yes, 285 00:17:06.599 --> 00:17:10.359 because of the way we collect the data, the cost 286 00:17:10.440 --> 00:17:15.519 per collection is fairly low compared to live operator data collection. 287 00:17:16.119 --> 00:17:19.720 So for live operators, hard to throw away data that's 288 00:17:19.799 --> 00:17:24.119 costing maybe thirty five to forty dollars a complete. In 289 00:17:24.160 --> 00:17:28.559 my world that's costing maybe fixed to eight dollars a complete. 290 00:17:28.839 --> 00:17:30.720 So you know, still it hard to throw that away. 291 00:17:31.039 --> 00:17:34.559 But we have a little bit more room. And so 292 00:17:34.640 --> 00:17:39.599 to your point, we do scrub out. Not everybody who 293 00:17:39.640 --> 00:17:42.920 takes the survey has the best of intentions, and we 294 00:17:42.960 --> 00:17:49.519 have those those catches throughout the honey pots throughout the 295 00:17:49.559 --> 00:17:51.880 survey to try to catch those folks. 296 00:17:53.799 --> 00:18:01.079 Do you think that polls today are more accurate, less accurate, 297 00:18:01.759 --> 00:18:07.160 or similar in terms of their accuracy to prior elections? Obviously, 298 00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:10.200 as the technology changes, you'd like to think that the 299 00:18:10.720 --> 00:18:16.000 technology creates more accurate polls. I mean, that's what the 300 00:18:16.039 --> 00:18:17.119 goal is. Obviously. 301 00:18:17.799 --> 00:18:23.759 Do you feel better as these newer, you know, procedures 302 00:18:23.960 --> 00:18:28.240 are now being implemented, adopted and become really you know 303 00:18:28.319 --> 00:18:29.519 part of the equation? 304 00:18:31.160 --> 00:18:33.920 Oh, yes, right, The bottom line is yes, polling is 305 00:18:33.960 --> 00:18:36.599 getting better. You've got to remember that a survey is 306 00:18:36.640 --> 00:18:39.720 a range of scores. It's not an exact score, and 307 00:18:39.799 --> 00:18:42.279 so the key is using a large enough sample, like 308 00:18:42.319 --> 00:18:45.000 a sample of a thousand people that has a margin 309 00:18:45.039 --> 00:18:50.680 enviuyer of three, which is like a six point spread. Now, historically, yeah, 310 00:18:50.720 --> 00:18:52.720 either you know, three points on either side tow it's 311 00:18:52.720 --> 00:18:55.519 a six point so but historically, like if you go 312 00:18:55.599 --> 00:18:59.039 back to the famous nineteen thirty six George Gallup poll 313 00:18:59.400 --> 00:19:04.799 and literary digest having alf land In beating FDR and 314 00:19:05.000 --> 00:19:08.880 this emerged George Gallup, who had FDR winning that poll 315 00:19:08.960 --> 00:19:12.559 actually falls outside their margin of error. They had the winner, 316 00:19:12.880 --> 00:19:16.680 but they didn't have FDR winning by enough. And nineteen 317 00:19:16.759 --> 00:19:21.839 forty Gallup gets the poll wrong. They actually have Wilkie 318 00:19:21.880 --> 00:19:28.920 I think winning that election. So the polls aren't you 319 00:19:29.000 --> 00:19:32.039 know historically nineteen forty eight. You know, they talk about 320 00:19:32.079 --> 00:19:34.839 the twenty sixteen election and those were some bad polls 321 00:19:35.319 --> 00:19:38.119 they but in forty eight, we're talking about being off 322 00:19:38.160 --> 00:19:41.720 by like seventeen points in some states thirty points. Like 323 00:19:41.799 --> 00:19:46.000 the polling disasters of forty eight were are truly let 324 00:19:46.119 --> 00:19:51.079 all over. Like just imagine that being off across many 325 00:19:51.119 --> 00:19:54.400 many states because there was only two or three polsters 326 00:19:54.440 --> 00:19:57.720 at the time, four polsters. Now there's literally over four 327 00:19:57.839 --> 00:20:00.839 hundred polsters and it's hard to and to make sense 328 00:20:01.160 --> 00:20:05.720 of all of that. But the technology improves and the industry. 329 00:20:05.960 --> 00:20:09.599 Remember we're we're market you know, survey research, market research. 330 00:20:09.839 --> 00:20:13.720 We do polling as uh, you know, kind of an 331 00:20:13.720 --> 00:20:18.799 offshoot to the bigger part of the discipline. So and 332 00:20:18.880 --> 00:20:21.799 it also informs us, as I mentioned earlier, about what 333 00:20:21.920 --> 00:20:24.960 methods and you know work best in the survey field. 334 00:20:24.960 --> 00:20:28.799 By having an election, well. 335 00:20:28.640 --> 00:20:31.960 It's great because you you can look back on, hopefully, 336 00:20:32.119 --> 00:20:36.319 if not November fifth, November sixth, or November seventh, maybe 337 00:20:36.400 --> 00:20:40.480 over the latest and say, okay, here's what we projected, 338 00:20:40.720 --> 00:20:43.559 here's what it worked out to be. And so look 339 00:20:43.720 --> 00:20:45.920 what I want to do. We've talked theory a lot. 340 00:20:46.119 --> 00:20:48.519 I want to get to the to the big races 341 00:20:48.519 --> 00:20:48.960 at hand. 342 00:20:49.559 --> 00:20:51.119 Uh and right. 343 00:20:51.079 --> 00:20:54.079 Time, Dann, we're gonna put our audience to sleep talking theory. 344 00:20:54.119 --> 00:20:55.720 They're gonna be not at all. 345 00:20:55.839 --> 00:20:58.359 No, I gotta tell you something. I'm fascinated by it. 346 00:20:58.400 --> 00:21:00.400 And I get people who call all the time. 347 00:21:00.440 --> 00:21:01.920 I've never been called by a pollster. 348 00:21:02.599 --> 00:21:06.359 I don't to mean this is fascinating, Okay, yeah, because 349 00:21:06.480 --> 00:21:09.359 it's great. Well, I really mean that seriously, It's something 350 00:21:09.400 --> 00:21:12.359 that I read the polls, uh, And I'm always trying 351 00:21:12.359 --> 00:21:15.519 to see what can I see? What? What little thing 352 00:21:15.599 --> 00:21:19.319 can I see? I call it a vector? You know what? 353 00:21:19.319 --> 00:21:21.759 What what way is the wind blowing that I can 354 00:21:21.799 --> 00:21:25.079 see ahead of time? Uh? And and that's I'm I'm 355 00:21:25.160 --> 00:21:27.400 sure you know what I'm what I'm referring to when 356 00:21:27.400 --> 00:21:30.079 I when I speak like that. So, uh, if if 357 00:21:30.160 --> 00:21:32.759 folks want to call and ask a question about polling 358 00:21:32.839 --> 00:21:36.480 generally or about the race at hand, uh, they got 359 00:21:36.519 --> 00:21:38.440 to light it up. Six one, seven, two, five, four, 360 00:21:38.519 --> 00:21:41.119 ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty, 361 00:21:41.160 --> 00:21:44.079 triple eight nine two nine, ten thirty. This again is 362 00:21:44.079 --> 00:21:47.519 your opportunity to talk to a real, live, legitimate pollster. 363 00:21:48.119 --> 00:21:51.960 These poles, by the way, folks, have tremendous impact within 364 00:21:52.079 --> 00:21:58.200 campaigns and within the media at large, because when Emerson 365 00:21:58.279 --> 00:22:02.759 College puts out a poll, it's red. Believe me, it's red. 366 00:22:02.839 --> 00:22:05.519 And when Suffolk puts out a poll, it's red. And 367 00:22:05.559 --> 00:22:07.759 believe me it's red, and it's carried. And there are 368 00:22:07.759 --> 00:22:09.799 a couple of others around the country that are that 369 00:22:09.839 --> 00:22:13.599 are that are important as well. But uh, five point 370 00:22:13.599 --> 00:22:16.880 thirty eight is one that has been very interesting as well. 371 00:22:17.359 --> 00:22:22.839 Uh I I well, we have much to discuss to discuss. 372 00:22:22.880 --> 00:22:25.640 We'll be right back on Nightside with Spencer Kimball. If 373 00:22:25.680 --> 00:22:28.519 you've never been polled, this is your opportunity to actually, 374 00:22:28.920 --> 00:22:32.200 if not Pole, you can even troll a pollster here. Okay, 375 00:22:32.359 --> 00:22:35.000 Spencer Kimball of Emerson, I don't want you to do that. 376 00:22:35.319 --> 00:22:37.960 Back on Nightside right after these few messages and the 377 00:22:37.960 --> 00:22:39.400 news at the bottom of the hour. 378 00:22:40.559 --> 00:22:45.920 Night Side with Dan Ray, I'MBZ Boston's News Radio. 379 00:22:47.400 --> 00:22:51.839 My guest is Spencer Kimball, Emerson college pollster who has 380 00:22:51.880 --> 00:22:56.519 a national reach. At this point, Emerson is recognized, along 381 00:22:56.519 --> 00:23:00.640 with Dave Paleo Logus's group at Suffolk, as a significant, 382 00:23:01.160 --> 00:23:07.960 significant poster on presidential elections and on Senate races. So again, Spencer, 383 00:23:08.039 --> 00:23:11.079 no one's expecting you to call the election. But what 384 00:23:11.160 --> 00:23:14.200 are you seeing in the last few weeks? Do you 385 00:23:14.240 --> 00:23:16.279 think that this election is going to be as close 386 00:23:16.319 --> 00:23:19.680 as everyone would seem to suggest it is. Do you 387 00:23:19.720 --> 00:23:21.440 see any movement to. 388 00:23:21.359 --> 00:23:25.119 Speak of either the vice president or former President Trump? 389 00:23:26.880 --> 00:23:31.480 Well, yes, that's the exciting week. Next week, this time 390 00:23:31.799 --> 00:23:34.400 we'll be looking at returns and we will have a 391 00:23:34.440 --> 00:23:38.559 much better sense obviously what's going on. But when we 392 00:23:38.599 --> 00:23:40.559 look at you know around the country if we want 393 00:23:40.599 --> 00:23:42.559 to kind of talk around the horn, if we go 394 00:23:42.640 --> 00:23:48.359 out west, we see Arizona leaning more Republican. We'll just 395 00:23:48.359 --> 00:23:52.400 talk presidential politics, but happy to jump into any Senate 396 00:23:53.160 --> 00:23:57.960 But in the presidential level, Arizona there are eleven electoral votes. 397 00:23:58.000 --> 00:24:00.839 There's a state that Biden stood to me. What you're 398 00:24:00.839 --> 00:24:02.640 looking at is like you got to flip a state. 399 00:24:02.680 --> 00:24:04.400 It's like in basketball, you got to win on the 400 00:24:04.400 --> 00:24:07.119 other team's home court before the play. You know, it 401 00:24:07.359 --> 00:24:11.599