Speaker 1: It's Nightside with Dan Ray. I'm Deli Fleas Boston Video.
Speaker 2: Welcome back everyone as we head into our ten o'clock
Speaker 2: hour here on Tuesday night, the twenty ninth of October.
Speaker 3: My name is Dan Ray. As we move our way towards.
Speaker 2: Midnight, I'm delighted to welcome back a very important figure
Speaker 2: at this time of the year every quadrennial, but he's
Speaker 2: an important figure throughout all the time as far as
Speaker 2: I'm concerned, Suffolk University poster Spencer Kimball, who's developed really
Speaker 2: quite a reputation.
Speaker 3: For Suffolk University with the polls that he does for
Speaker 3: so many clients. Spencer Kimball, welcome back to Nightside, Dan.
Speaker 4: And thanks again for having me as always absolutely so.
Speaker 2: Tell us how many different You don't have to give
Speaker 2: me the names of all the clients, but Suffolk you
Speaker 2: do a lot of polling, not only for Suffolk but
Speaker 2: also for other institutions and corporations.
Speaker 4: Correct, well, Dan, you got me backwards. Remember I went
Speaker 4: to Suffolk, studied with Dave and now I'm over at Emerson.
Speaker 5: But we run.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I apologie.
Speaker 2: First of all, I totally apologize. I totally apologize. I
Speaker 2: was doing a couple of things. It's Emerson College. My mistake,
Speaker 2: that is, that's a mortal sin here to mix you up.
Speaker 4: Now there on the other side of a common we're friends.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, no, I totally get so tell
Speaker 2: us about Emerson, because what I meant is that that
Speaker 2: I see all the national polls, and there's a couple
Speaker 2: of other universities around the country. But both Dave Pale
Speaker 2: Loogus at Suffolk and you at Emerson, and thank you
Speaker 2: for being a very gentle correction. You should have yelled
Speaker 2: at me because I totally blanked out, and I apologize
Speaker 2: for that. I'm there trying to do three or four
Speaker 2: things simultaneously here and I sometimes have a tough time
Speaker 2: doing one one thing, well, signed one thing.
Speaker 3: Well, so who else? I mean? Why?
Speaker 2: How has Suffolk gotten How has Emerson gotten such a
Speaker 2: really great reputation amongst the polling community.
Speaker 4: Well, first, you know, it's great to hear that reputation
Speaker 4: exists within your space, and that's what we try to
Speaker 4: work to achieve. What essentially helped us create the space
Speaker 4: is innovation in data collection. And it's not the most
Speaker 4: exciting thing to talk about. But if we just think
Speaker 4: about the ways we communicate today the way we communicated
Speaker 4: forty years ago. It's really leaps and bounds in lifestyle
Speaker 4: differences and in communication. So what we've done at Emerson
Speaker 4: is we study communication and we look at, well, what's
Speaker 4: the way people are communicating. In about ten twelve years ago,
Speaker 4: we kind of restarted the survey and polling program and
Speaker 4: used new ways of data collection to kind of test
Speaker 4: it out in the academic world. So it's happening in industry,
Speaker 4: but in the universities and colleges, we were generally collecting
Speaker 4: data using live operators and we'd call people up and
Speaker 4: ask them their questions. But as technology has evolved, what
Speaker 4: we're doing today is text messaging people. We're sending out emails.
Speaker 4: We use automated phone calls where people don't have to
Speaker 4: they can use their keypads to answer surveys, and they
Speaker 4: can even enter into panels. And these innovations is kind
Speaker 4: of leading the forefront of the survey industry, and that's
Speaker 4: what gives us these opportunities. And the pre election polling
Speaker 4: for us is the canary and the coal mine. We
Speaker 4: get to test out these different methodologies. You know, is
Speaker 4: there a difference between a text message poll and an
Speaker 4: online poll, or what about a survey that has people
Speaker 4: opt in to participate in it. You know, anybody can
Speaker 4: come take this survey at some of these groups, how
Speaker 4: do those work? And the elections give us a chance
Speaker 4: to kind of test out what methods are better, and
Speaker 4: then we use that information to do other survey work,
Speaker 4: which is a much larger industry. And I think that's
Speaker 4: what you're alluding to with some of those other clients,
Speaker 4: and that can range from the San Francisco Police Department,
Speaker 4: who we currently are just finishing a study for, to
Speaker 4: Common Good Index, to different associations. We do a holiday
Speaker 4: study on footwear. We do a lot of health communication
Speaker 4: on vaccines and bird flu and other areas that traditionally
Speaker 4: may have been very expensive to conduct this type of research.
Speaker 4: But because technology has evolved and we don't have to
Speaker 4: pay operators to call people, we are able to bring
Speaker 4: down the cost of some of the data collection, which
Speaker 4: gives us really valuable information. And in some areas, obviously,
Speaker 4: election polls have value, but some of the areas in
Speaker 4: health communication and other market research also has value as well.
Speaker 2: So let me ask you this question, Okay, In the
Speaker 2: old days you would rely upon and maybe these were
Speaker 2: days even before when you were involved. In the old days,
Speaker 2: posters rely upon the white pages in the phone book
Speaker 2: and they would they would, that's how they would find
Speaker 2: people's numbers. Now, how do you find people's cell phone numbers?
Speaker 2: There's no I'm sure there's somewhere that my cell phone
Speaker 2: number is listed, but it's not available to you as
Speaker 2: a polster, or maybe it is.
Speaker 4: Well, Dan, that too has evolved over so telephones become
Speaker 4: the major mode of data collection starting in the nineteen seventies.
Speaker 4: And you know at and t let your fingers do
Speaker 4: the you know talking, well anyways, the walking, let your
Speaker 4: fingers do the walking, and so, uh, you can see,
Speaker 4: telephones are there, and polsters were using something called random
Speaker 4: digit dialing where they would create root numbers based on
Speaker 4: area codes and then you'd have roots and then a
Speaker 4: random number. And what happens in random digit dialing is
Speaker 4: everybody could be included. So if you're a doctor and
Speaker 4: you had an unlisted number, well, random digit dialing would.
Speaker 3: Find that number.
Speaker 4: Now, in the era of landlines, and now you got
Speaker 4: to remember, you also were calling libraries and hospitals and
Speaker 4: other random numbers that you have to be very careful about,
Speaker 4: you know, calling and soliciting that process became expensive, so
Speaker 4: they moved to using registered voter lists or registered based
Speaker 4: sampling back in like the nineteen nineties and into the
Speaker 4: the beginning of this of this century, where I know
Speaker 4: you think that like you know, you register to vote
Speaker 4: and there's your name and your address, but there's a
Speaker 4: lot of companies out there that append the data back
Speaker 4: to you. So we do have a database of you know,
Speaker 4: I think it's well over two hundred and seventy million
Speaker 4: points of contact with I think about one hundred and
Speaker 4: forty million cell phones, one hundred and thirty million cell phones.
Speaker 4: So we've got a large database to pull from. And
Speaker 4: that's where so.
Speaker 2: I'm not doing when you're going for cell phone because
Speaker 2: more people, more and more people every year have got
Speaker 2: rid of the landline and now we're cell phone dependent.
Speaker 2: And you're saying that when you want to call someone
Speaker 2: that fits my profile, you you you're not random dialing
Speaker 2: and saying to the person, well, how old are you,
Speaker 2: what's your ethnicity? Are you a Democrat, Republican, unenrolled, et cetera.
Speaker 2: You have an idea when you when that number dials, Uh,
Speaker 2: who that person is?
Speaker 3: Who's going to pick up that phone?
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: In fact, when you get these texts, when you get
Speaker 4: the text message, it's going to say, hi Dan, will
Speaker 4: you take the survey? It's personalized and that's how that's
Speaker 4: how much we know who's taking it now. To me,
Speaker 4: there's an issue with personalizing it too much because there's
Speaker 4: you want to be anonymous and confidential. There's the reason
Speaker 4: why we have a secret ballot in this country. And
Speaker 4: you know, the survey is intended to be anonymous, and
Speaker 4: so we sometimes yeah, and to help keep people honest,
Speaker 4: and you know, we think about are you comfortable if
Speaker 4: somebody calls you up and says, you know, hi Dan?
Speaker 4: You know the suspense and you're like, who's Spence? And
Speaker 4: how do you know my name? So as to if
Speaker 4: you get a text message from Emerson College that says, hey,
Speaker 4: you want to take an Emerson College poll. As you mentioned,
Speaker 4: a lot of people have heard of the Emerson College
Speaker 4: poll and they might be willing to participate and share
Speaker 4: their opinions with us for us to be able to
Speaker 4: represent public opinion.
Speaker 3: My guest is Spencer Kimball.
Speaker 2: He is the polling guru if you will, for Emerson
Speaker 2: College has done a great job this. I've never really
Speaker 2: had a chance to drill down and understand this, so
Speaker 2: I'm learning something. I hope some of you are as well.
Speaker 2: When I get back, I'm going to tell you an
Speaker 2: anonymous text that I got tonight. I don't think it
Speaker 2: was directed at me, but you're going to break it
Speaker 2: down for me when I explain to see I think
Speaker 2: you'll get a kick out of it, and then we
Speaker 2: will talk, assuming that you're willing to talk about what
Speaker 2: you're seeing in the polls, in your polls and other polls.
Speaker 2: As we are now really less than a week away
Speaker 2: from November fifth, something that many of us have had
Speaker 2: marked on our calendar for years, and now it is.
Speaker 2: It's almost here. So I'm excited about it. I want
Speaker 2: to talk with Spencer about it, and I hope some
Speaker 2: of you might want to call and ask Spencer a
Speaker 2: question if you'd like.
Speaker 3: Feel free.
Speaker 2: The number that we give out it's not my cell
Speaker 2: phone number, it's the WBC call line six one seven,
Speaker 2: two five four ten thirty six one seven nine three
Speaker 2: one ten thirty Spencer. I could talk with you about
Speaker 2: this stuff all night. I don't want to have used
Speaker 2: your time. Just tell my producer what your time living is.
Speaker 2: If if I if we're done at ten thirty and
Speaker 2: you've got something you got to do in the.
Speaker 3: Morning, please I'll uh if you can.
Speaker 2: Stay a little later. I'd love to have you stay
Speaker 2: a little later. But that's your call, and just talk
Speaker 2: to my producer. The other Dan on the board tonight,
Speaker 2: Rob is off, So Dan is our other producer tonight,
Speaker 2: be back with your phone calls along with Spencer Kimball,
Speaker 2: Emerson University pollster based here in Boston, Massachusetts, but with
Speaker 2: a very long reach around the country. Back on Nightside
Speaker 2: after this.
Speaker 1: Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
Speaker 1: night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 3: I'm talking with my friend Spencer Kimball. He is a pollster.
Speaker 2: He and Dave Paleo Logus and John Zogby, I think
Speaker 2: are the three best posters in the country.
Speaker 3: We'll have Dave with us tomorrow night. We had Spencer
Speaker 3: with us a week ago. Dave was with us as well.
Speaker 2: Spencer's I get this text tonight, okay, and I want
Speaker 2: you to interpret.
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna get get it. Get a kick
Speaker 3: out of this here ready.
Speaker 2: No, No one should know my cell phone number except
Speaker 2: people like you, friends of mine, or family members, et cetera.
Speaker 3: Okay, so I get a text earlier this evening.
Speaker 2: Hi Stephen. My name is not Stephen. Okay, my middle
Speaker 2: name is not Stephen. Hi Stephen. I'm Matt, a volunteer
Speaker 2: with Swing Left. Our call oween phone Bank to call
Speaker 2: voters in Wisconsin with special guests including Katherine Hahn, Natasha Rothwell,
Speaker 2: Busy Phillips, and Moore will be on Wednesday, October thirtieth
Speaker 2: at seven pm Eastern time. We'd love to see you there.
Speaker 2: Will you join us?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 2: You're you're more hip than I am, Spencer, but I
Speaker 2: have no idea. Who's Katherine Hahn? Do you have an idea?
Speaker 4: No? Unless they're running for office? Not my department. I
Speaker 4: have people I work with.
Speaker 3: An actress, Dan telling me?
Speaker 4: Is it?
Speaker 3: Dan's telling me an actress? Okay? Dan? What about Natasha Rothwell?
Speaker 3: That one? He doesn't know? What about Busy Phillips? Okay?
Speaker 2: So we got Dan the producers one out of three?
Speaker 2: So will you join us at rapid recruit dot Org.
Speaker 2: I have no idea what that is, but I assume
Speaker 2: since it's entitled Swing Left. It's probably not my cup
Speaker 2: of tea politically, but here's how I answered this. Okay,
Speaker 2: I hope I haven't broken any federal law here, but
Speaker 2: your confession is good for the soul. I responded, I'll
Speaker 2: go to Wisconsin to help. I have lots of cash
Speaker 2: to bring with me.
Speaker 4: Out to the Badger State.
Speaker 3: I hope they.
Speaker 2: Don't get too excited or something that Steven is going
Speaker 2: to actually go there. But I thought to myself, I'm
Speaker 2: receiving this is from area Coach six 't eighty one,
Speaker 2: which I checked out, which is actually West Virginia. So
Speaker 2: there's a phone bank in West Virginia that's called Swing
Speaker 2: Left that's going to be calling people in Wisconsin. It's
Speaker 2: just the way we communicate these days is fascinating.
Speaker 3: So the question, then, and the reason I told you
Speaker 3: this story, is if this had been.
Speaker 2: As survey, it said, Hi, Steven, you know, somehow, some
Speaker 2: way this my number is associated with with someone named
Speaker 2: Stephen I have known, and by the way, I've had
Speaker 2: this phone for a long time. So if this was
Speaker 2: a poll, I could answer anything. I could tell them
Speaker 2: that I wanted, you know, Trotsky or Lemon or Lenin
Speaker 2: to be president, it wouldn't matter. But how tough is
Speaker 2: it as a polster whose reputation depends on the accuracy
Speaker 2: of the polls you conduct to make sure you know
Speaker 2: who you're talking to and that you have some idea
Speaker 2: about what their background is.
Speaker 4: Well, you know, that's the challenge and why some folks
Speaker 4: question not using live operators, because with a live operator,
Speaker 4: you know that you're talking to somebody. You know it's
Speaker 4: not a child. You know, you could ask them their
Speaker 4: name to verify it, and some posters do that in
Speaker 4: these news systems. And where the future is going to
Speaker 4: go is within these panels where people have opted in
Speaker 4: and they're getting rewarded to take the surveys. We're already
Speaker 4: seeing it to some degree today, but in you know
Speaker 4: the next three to five years, it'll be even bigger
Speaker 4: business in these panels. And in those cases, those folks
Speaker 4: you'll already have that demographic data on them. Obviously, they
Speaker 4: can still not tell you the truth about their opinions,
Speaker 4: or their opinions can also change. You know, you can
Speaker 4: wake up happy and you know how things going great,
Speaker 4: and by four o'clock you're like, was the tough day?
Speaker 4: The opinions change and but with that, we do have
Speaker 4: a few ways of testing within the survey of if
Speaker 4: somebody is just like flicking through it and not pressing
Speaker 4: or randomly you know, answering questions or UH has to make.
Speaker 3: Sure, okay, speczer.
Speaker 2: Do you over sample so that if you're looking to
Speaker 2: get a poll, let's say a national poll of one
Speaker 2: thousand legitimate voters, which are a portion between fifty states
Speaker 2: and balance between men and women, Republicans, Democrats, independence and
Speaker 2: all of that, do you over sample so you'll have
Speaker 2: fifteen hundred or you'll have five thousand, and you can
Speaker 2: you can sort of prone out the ones that you
Speaker 2: think are responsive and.
Speaker 3: Legitimate or or can you not do that at this point?
Speaker 4: No, you certainly, you certainly go through that process. You know,
Speaker 4: for example, you can see how long it took the
Speaker 4: person to take the survey, somebody who took it within
Speaker 4: thirty seconds. It raises an eyebrow. Those there's some mechanics
Speaker 4: that we can see, you know, behind the curtain that
Speaker 4: allows us to know where they are are and other
Speaker 4: bits of information there. So there are things. But yes,
Speaker 4: because of the way we collect the data, the cost
Speaker 4: per collection is fairly low compared to live operator data collection.
Speaker 4: So for live operators, hard to throw away data that's
Speaker 4: costing maybe thirty five to forty dollars a complete. In
Speaker 4: my world that's costing maybe fixed to eight dollars a complete.
Speaker 4: So you know, still it hard to throw that away.
Speaker 4: But we have a little bit more room. And so
Speaker 4: to your point, we do scrub out. Not everybody who
Speaker 4: takes the survey has the best of intentions, and we
Speaker 4: have those those catches throughout the honey pots throughout the
Speaker 4: survey to try to catch those folks.
Speaker 3: Do you think that polls today are more accurate, less accurate,
Speaker 3: or similar in terms of their accuracy to prior elections? Obviously,
Speaker 3: as the technology changes, you'd like to think that the
Speaker 3: technology creates more accurate polls. I mean, that's what the
Speaker 3: goal is. Obviously.
Speaker 2: Do you feel better as these newer, you know, procedures
Speaker 2: are now being implemented, adopted and become really you know
Speaker 2: part of the equation?
Speaker 4: Oh, yes, right, The bottom line is yes, polling is
Speaker 4: getting better. You've got to remember that a survey is
Speaker 4: a range of scores. It's not an exact score, and
Speaker 4: so the key is using a large enough sample, like
Speaker 4: a sample of a thousand people that has a margin
Speaker 4: enviuyer of three, which is like a six point spread. Now, historically, yeah,
Speaker 4: either you know, three points on either side tow it's
Speaker 4: a six point so but historically, like if you go
Speaker 4: back to the famous nineteen thirty six George Gallup poll
Speaker 4: and literary digest having alf land In beating FDR and
Speaker 4: this emerged George Gallup, who had FDR winning that poll
Speaker 4: actually falls outside their margin of error. They had the winner,
Speaker 4: but they didn't have FDR winning by enough. And nineteen
Speaker 4: forty Gallup gets the poll wrong. They actually have Wilkie
Speaker 4: I think winning that election. So the polls aren't you
Speaker 4: know historically nineteen forty eight. You know, they talk about
Speaker 4: the twenty sixteen election and those were some bad polls
Speaker 4: they but in forty eight, we're talking about being off
Speaker 4: by like seventeen points in some states thirty points. Like
Speaker 4: the polling disasters of forty eight were are truly let
Speaker 4: all over. Like just imagine that being off across many
Speaker 4: many states because there was only two or three polsters
Speaker 4: at the time, four polsters. Now there's literally over four
Speaker 4: hundred polsters and it's hard to and to make sense
Speaker 4: of all of that. But the technology improves and the industry.
Speaker 4: Remember we're we're market you know, survey research, market research.
Speaker 4: We do polling as uh, you know, kind of an
Speaker 4: offshoot to the bigger part of the discipline. So and
Speaker 4: it also informs us, as I mentioned earlier, about what
Speaker 4: methods and you know work best in the survey field.
Speaker 4: By having an election, well.
Speaker 2: It's great because you you can look back on, hopefully,
Speaker 2: if not November fifth, November sixth, or November seventh, maybe
Speaker 2: over the latest and say, okay, here's what we projected,
Speaker 2: here's what it worked out to be. And so look
Speaker 2: what I want to do. We've talked theory a lot.
Speaker 2: I want to get to the to the big races
Speaker 2: at hand.
Speaker 5: Uh and right.
Speaker 4: Time, Dann, we're gonna put our audience to sleep talking theory.
Speaker 4: They're gonna be not at all.
Speaker 2: No, I gotta tell you something. I'm fascinated by it.
Speaker 2: And I get people who call all the time.
Speaker 3: I've never been called by a pollster.
Speaker 2: I don't to mean this is fascinating, Okay, yeah, because
Speaker 2: it's great. Well, I really mean that seriously, It's something
Speaker 2: that I read the polls, uh, And I'm always trying
Speaker 2: to see what can I see? What? What little thing
Speaker 2: can I see? I call it a vector? You know what?
Speaker 2: What what way is the wind blowing that I can
Speaker 2: see ahead of time? Uh? And and that's I'm I'm
Speaker 2: sure you know what I'm what I'm referring to when
Speaker 2: I when I speak like that. So, uh, if if
Speaker 2: folks want to call and ask a question about polling
Speaker 2: generally or about the race at hand, uh, they got
Speaker 2: to light it up. Six one, seven, two, five, four,
Speaker 2: ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty,
Speaker 2: triple eight nine two nine, ten thirty. This again is
Speaker 2: your opportunity to talk to a real, live, legitimate pollster.
Speaker 2: These poles, by the way, folks, have tremendous impact within
Speaker 2: campaigns and within the media at large, because when Emerson
Speaker 2: College puts out a poll, it's red. Believe me, it's red.
Speaker 2: And when Suffolk puts out a poll, it's red. And
Speaker 2: believe me it's red, and it's carried. And there are
Speaker 2: a couple of others around the country that are that
Speaker 2: are that are important as well. But uh, five point
Speaker 2: thirty eight is one that has been very interesting as well.
Speaker 2: Uh I I well, we have much to discuss to discuss.
Speaker 2: We'll be right back on Nightside with Spencer Kimball. If
Speaker 2: you've never been polled, this is your opportunity to actually,
Speaker 2: if not Pole, you can even troll a pollster here. Okay,
Speaker 2: Spencer Kimball of Emerson, I don't want you to do that.
Speaker 2: Back on Nightside right after these few messages and the
Speaker 2: news at the bottom of the hour.
Speaker 1: Night Side with Dan Ray, I'MBZ Boston's News Radio.
Speaker 2: My guest is Spencer Kimball, Emerson college pollster who has
Speaker 2: a national reach. At this point, Emerson is recognized, along
Speaker 2: with Dave Paleo Logus's group at Suffolk, as a significant,
Speaker 2: significant poster on presidential elections and on Senate races. So again, Spencer,
Speaker 2: no one's expecting you to call the election. But what
Speaker 2: are you seeing in the last few weeks? Do you
Speaker 2: think that this election is going to be as close
Speaker 2: as everyone would seem to suggest it is. Do you
Speaker 2: see any movement to.
Speaker 3: Speak of either the vice president or former President Trump?
Speaker 4: Well, yes, that's the exciting week. Next week, this time
Speaker 4: we'll be looking at returns and we will have a
Speaker 4: much better sense obviously what's going on. But when we
Speaker 4: look at you know around the country if we want
Speaker 4: to kind of talk around the horn, if we go
Speaker 4: out west, we see Arizona leaning more Republican. We'll just
Speaker 4: talk presidential politics, but happy to jump into any Senate
Speaker 4: But in the presidential level, Arizona there are eleven electoral votes.
Speaker 4: There's a state that Biden stood to me. What you're
Speaker 4: looking at is like you got to flip a state.
Speaker 4: It's like in basketball, you got to win on the
Speaker 4: other team's home court before the play. You know, it
Speaker 4: becomes a series. So here, Arizona would be a state
Speaker 4: where it looks to be a state Trump's can be
Speaker 4: able to bring back that was part of his coalition
Speaker 4: of twenty sixteen, lost it in twenty twenty by less
Speaker 4: than about three tenths of a point. And out there
Speaker 4: their major issue is immigration. It's like thirty percent. They're
Speaker 4: the only state, really Texas a little high with immigration.
Speaker 4: But yeah, so there's a state there that for Trump.
Speaker 4: Georgia would be another one for Trump that Biden was
Speaker 4: able to take back in twenty twenty by again about
Speaker 4: two to three tenths of a point. We'll see if
Speaker 4: by if Trump is able to hold that one. He
Speaker 4: seems to be getting along well with Governor Kemp, and
Speaker 4: we'll see what the ground game looks like in Georgia.
Speaker 4: And then North Carolina would be a state for Harris
Speaker 4: to take and that would open up a potential Southern
Speaker 4: strategy if the Midwest Wall was to collapse and you know,
Speaker 4: or if a state or two was to drop, particularly
Speaker 4: if you go out to like Wisconsin. The polling is
Speaker 4: generally trending towards Trump out there. Harris had a three
Speaker 4: to four point lead. Historically, Wisconsin's been the toughest state
Speaker 4: out of the seven for the Polsters. We were off
Speaker 4: the most in Wisconsin over the last two cycles and
Speaker 4: not really great at improvement. I wish we have done better.
Speaker 4: Hopefully this cycle we do and right now we have
Speaker 4: it tied leaning towards Trump, so that would be a
Speaker 4: pickup state as well. And then you got your Pennsylvania
Speaker 4: and Michigan vote looking close. But the general takeaway is
Speaker 4: Trump is doing better with men in Harris is generally
Speaker 4: doing about the same with women as Biden did with women,
Speaker 4: and that kind of will cut across race and ethnicity,
Speaker 4: and she does do better than Biden with younger voters,
Speaker 4: but we have not seen those folks come to the polls.
Speaker 4: So in this early voting, you'll notice that some of
Speaker 4: the sites that monitor it, most of the early vote
Speaker 4: is older vote. It's very disproportionate towards those over fifty.
Speaker 4: And so we'll see if the Democrat young vote comes
Speaker 4: out on election day and is able to put her
Speaker 4: over the top in some of these key swing states.
Speaker 4: But to remember some of these points that I'm talking about,
Speaker 4: you know, it's like one eighty thousand votes in Pennsylvania
Speaker 4: as a point, so you got to you got to
Speaker 4: convince eighty thousand people to shift over if you're up
Speaker 4: a point there. So those are you know, points aren't
Speaker 4: always the same based on the population of each state.
Speaker 2: So this is not twenty twenty, but it is. Trump
Speaker 2: has to Trump won those three states the Blue Wall Wisconsin, Michigan,
Speaker 2: and Pennsylvania. That's what elected him in twenty sixteen. So
Speaker 2: he has to really accomplish, if not all of those states,
Speaker 2: at least one of them at a minimum, and maybe
Speaker 2: a couple. Because it's every every year is a little different.
Speaker 2: I mean, people understand the middle of the country's red,
Speaker 2: the coast tend to be blue. We get that, but
Speaker 2: This is truly still close a call. Either one of
Speaker 2: these candidates could win, okay, by a narrow margin. Does
Speaker 2: either have the potential of winning by a decisive margin.
Speaker 4: Well, first year earlier point, Trump could lose that blue
Speaker 4: wall of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, take back Georgia, Arizona, and
Speaker 4: then flip Nevada in New Hampshire and he wins the presidency.
Speaker 4: So there's different pathways with polls that are within the
Speaker 4: poll's margin of error. Now it looked like there's a
Speaker 4: better chance for Trump to have a blowout than for
Speaker 4: Harris to have a blowout. And I say that based
Speaker 4: on the popular vote. Generally, the conventional wisdom is if
Speaker 4: the Republicans, if you know, the Republicans win the popular
Speaker 4: vote like bushed it in two thousand and four, the
Speaker 4: last Republican to do that. Since I think eighty eight,
Speaker 4: the Republicans will win. And it looks on the popular
Speaker 4: vote that it could go in either direction. But this
Speaker 4: selection is a little bit different in that Harris hasn't
Speaker 4: had a full year year and a half campaigning. It's
Speaker 4: really only been a couple of months, and so she's
Speaker 4: kind of doing okay. Like in our Massachusetts fault. She's
Speaker 4: up by twenty three points, which is a solid lead,
Speaker 4: but Biden won the state by about thirty three thirty
Speaker 4: four points, so there is some melt that we're seeing
Speaker 4: same thing in New York. And then we see a
Speaker 4: little bit of a gains for Trump in Florida and Texas.
Speaker 4: So we're seeing this rising tide, you know, in some
Speaker 4: places for Trump and he's a little dropping, but in
Speaker 4: the swing states, those are holding more steady because that's
Speaker 4: where the money's being spent and the campaigns are being organized.
Speaker 6: Yeah, ironically, Harris has much more money available right now.
Speaker 6: I mean, she's she's swimming in the money. Trump is
Speaker 6: not swimming in the money, at least in the political money.
Speaker 6: What about Minnesota. I know that there's been some slippage
Speaker 6: in Minnesota for the Democrats, even though Waltz is in
Speaker 6: the ballot.
Speaker 4: Yeah, to me, that would be hard to imagine Minnesota
Speaker 4: being in play with Walls on the ballot. It was
Speaker 4: kind of like Tim Kane being in Virginia, and you
Speaker 4: know that state got more competitive in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 5: We'll see if.
Speaker 4: To me, Walls needs to give you Wisconsin if you're
Speaker 4: the Democrat because that's your neighboring state. He's the governor
Speaker 4: of Minnesota. He should be able to give you Wisconsin.
Speaker 4: So Wisconsin's really a toss up, probably leaning towards Trump.
Speaker 4: But Minnesota, if that's even in play now, the Democrats
Speaker 4: have a real problem because those should in Minnesota, Virginia,
Speaker 4: New Hampshire. Some folks think New Mexico those should not be.
Speaker 4: But New Mexico I don't think is really swinging at all.
Speaker 7: But the other I thought, I thought, I thought I
Speaker 7: said some pole that said that Minnesota, uh, at some
Speaker 7: point recently was a lot tighter than anyone would have expected,
Speaker 7: which caused me.
Speaker 4: To say whether yesterday three points.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and and whether or not that is evidence that
Speaker 2: that maybe Harris made a mistake in not picking the
Speaker 2: government of Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4: Well right before we get, you know, too far ahead
Speaker 4: of the obituary.
Speaker 3: No, no, I'm not, I'm not trying to get to
Speaker 3: the obituary. I'm just saying, yeah.
Speaker 4: Go ahead, she's uh, you know, Walls, you know, we'll
Speaker 4: see how it plays out. But Walls did provide some
Speaker 4: impact at the at the start of the race. I
Speaker 4: would say, I think the biggest criticism of him has
Speaker 4: been his debate performance, for better or worse, because it
Speaker 4: wasn't able to keep the Republicans on defense from where
Speaker 4: Trump was even know, if you look at the polling
Speaker 4: between what September the first debate September tenth, and then
Speaker 4: prior to that October.
Speaker 3: October VP, Yeah, it was October first.
Speaker 4: Percent said that Harris won the debate. But as you
Speaker 4: look at the ballot test question over those three and
Speaker 4: a half weeks, three weeks, Trump actually gained ground. So
Speaker 4: it was a very strange ish, you know, situation where
Speaker 4: was turning it. Yes, all right, I got it.
Speaker 3: I gotta grab a commercial.
Speaker 2: I got a couple of calls you want to get to,
Speaker 2: and I think you've given me a sense of where
Speaker 2: we are a week out. That doesn't mean that's where
Speaker 2: we will be a week from now. But I'm looking
Speaker 2: at a lot of polls and I'm seeing some of
Speaker 2: the same trends that that you're seeing, which in the
Speaker 2: end might not make a huge difference, or in the
Speaker 2: end they might be the proverbial care canaries in the
Speaker 2: coal mine. We'll be back on Night Side with Spencer Kimball.
Speaker 2: Emerson College. Emerson College poster coming right back on Nightside.
Speaker 1: Now back to Dan Way live from the Window World
Speaker 1: Nice Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2: With me Is Emerson, Poster, Spencer, Kimball, Spencer, let's get
Speaker 2: a couple of callers in here. We'll talk to the
Speaker 2: real people. Let me go to Glenn in Brighton. Glenn,
Speaker 2: you were next on Nice Side with Spencer. Kimball had
Speaker 2: a question or comment for Spencer.
Speaker 5: Glenn, Well, kind of both. I told you to producer
Speaker 5: that I'd be a nice person because this sticks in
Speaker 5: my c I wish that they neither band postering or
Speaker 5: at least have what do not posted me with because
Speaker 5: at the end of the day, I don't think it's
Speaker 5: anybody's business or I vote for unless you, my friend,
Speaker 5: you have.
Speaker 3: To answer the polls. Glenn. You know you don't have
Speaker 3: to answer me.
Speaker 5: I know, and when I do, I lie.
Speaker 3: Okay, Well, fine, say how to Glenn, Spencer.
Speaker 5: I'm Glenn.
Speaker 4: We did we appreciate you know, I mean, you're sharing
Speaker 4: whatever opinions, but you know we're not looking to to
Speaker 4: influence elections. You know, we're not looking to influence. We're
Speaker 4: looking just to represent and be able to share with
Speaker 4: public opinion. Not just on elections, but on the issues
Speaker 4: of the day, in some of the policies that people
Speaker 4: are talking about. So it's important that you know, you
Speaker 4: take if you have the opportunity to participate in a
Speaker 4: legitimate poll or survey, that you do share your opinion
Speaker 4: if you want that opinion to be represented in in
Speaker 4: these surveys, because they do have an impact on policy,
Speaker 4: they have an impact on to work on, and that's
Speaker 4: where you know, it's affording to participate.
Speaker 5: That way. Oh, I'm sorry. I don't want to be
Speaker 5: influenced by the Boss to go over the Boss and
Speaker 5: the Herald or how we would or Taylor Swift or
Speaker 5: any of them.
Speaker 3: You know what I mean, Glenn, You don't have.
Speaker 5: To be I think for myself. That's just me.
Speaker 3: That's that you do that, Glenn.
Speaker 4: So congratulations, you know, I mean one Glenn, I asked
Speaker 4: you what's your most important issue? And I get that
Speaker 4: opinion from a thousand people. It lets us know, like
Speaker 4: housing affordability is a really important issue for voters.
Speaker 5: Mooted.
Speaker 4: We know that, but you know that's for you know,
Speaker 4: that's what that's what we try to learn and then
Speaker 4: hopefully resolve, you know, solve some of the problems that
Speaker 4: we have in mind.
Speaker 5: Mine's who week immigration.
Speaker 2: All right, great, Glenn, I'm gonna let you go because
Speaker 2: I think that probably we've that never the Twains, you'll
Speaker 2: meet here.
Speaker 3: Thanks Glenn.
Speaker 5: I just wanted to say some click go ahead, be quick.
Speaker 5: All right? Yeah, No, I did get a woman post
Speaker 5: her and I could tell that she was actually her
Speaker 5: boss called me the next day and apologized. She said,
Speaker 5: you know, she started out, are you white? I should
Speaker 5: get are you other? Are you? And I said, all right,
Speaker 5: I'll tell you the truth. I'm a white, angle sex
Speaker 5: and Protestant male. I'm a Trump supporter, and you know
Speaker 5: I don't a poet. I want I want my country back.
Speaker 5: And she goes, that's on you, and I said, well,
Speaker 5: this is on you, and I hung up on her.
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, Solen, appreciate the experience.
Speaker 2: I can understand. Uh, I know you pretty well. And again,
Speaker 2: you don't have to participate with these folks. It's as
Speaker 2: simple as that. As I told you tonight, I sent
Speaker 2: the text back to someone said I'll see in Wisconsin.
Speaker 3: I'll bring the cash.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 2: I was having fun, all right, Thanks, Thanks Glenn. Jack
Speaker 2: down to the Kpayjack. Next to a nice eye was
Speaker 2: Spencer Kimball of Emerson University.
Speaker 8: Go ahead, Jack, Thanks guys. I called a couple of
Speaker 8: weeks ago and I said that the politics of today
Speaker 8: is the ultimate high tech Brendon circus. Who you know
Speaker 8: these candidates, this is Bretton's circus. On's who's really running
Speaker 8: the show is deep under the deep state. They're underground anyway.
Speaker 8: But I want to talk about polling. You know, it
Speaker 8: seems to me, you know, you're pulling a person, an event,
Speaker 8: a person. What about the depth of the poll. In
Speaker 8: other words, you present a pole, but the depth of
Speaker 8: the pole, it's really are It's actually a three dimensional
Speaker 8: matrix of age and this is what you look at age, sex, location,
Speaker 8: all all the dynamic data that goes into into what
Speaker 8: with a pole? And uh, how do we how can
Speaker 8: we more present the dimensional aspects of a poll rather
Speaker 8: than just coming out with the statement.
Speaker 3: Spencer's going to answer your question right now? Go ahead, Spencer.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, so the horse phrase is where it gets.
Speaker 4: Everybody's a tent and they want the ballot test question
Speaker 4: and that's what drives the media. But it's that underlying
Speaker 4: data and when we look at this race for examples,
Speaker 4: what it's.
Speaker 3: Called the cross tabs, correct Spencer.
Speaker 4: Yes, the cross tabs, the cross tabs, and so what.
Speaker 3: You explained to Jack what you mean by that? Please?
Speaker 4: And yeah, so Jack, it's a great question. I know
Speaker 4: you're familiar, but for the rest of the audience out
Speaker 4: there who might not be as familiar, we have different
Speaker 4: variables like gender, or age, or education, and we want
Speaker 4: to know how some of those different variables demographics impact
Speaker 4: who they're going to vote for or what issues are
Speaker 4: most important to them. And what we do is we
Speaker 4: can take a look by comparing instead of the whole
Speaker 4: sample of a thousand people, we're looking at a subset
Speaker 4: of let's say five hundred men or five hundred women,
Speaker 4: and from that we can learn, for example, that Donald
Speaker 4: Trump is doing better with men this cycle than he
Speaker 4: did in twenty twenty, and women are about the same
Speaker 4: with Harris than they were with Biden. And that difference
Speaker 4: is what's driving the polls and why you're seeing a
Speaker 4: three to four point tightening from what we saw in
Speaker 4: twenty twenty. And that's all because we have the cross
Speaker 4: stabs to look at that data and better understand what's
Speaker 4: driving these changes in attitude and what groups are driving it.
Speaker 4: And now we like to kind of pull back curtain,
Speaker 4: be open from what normal people don't see because we
Speaker 4: use this in market research to help sell candy bars
Speaker 4: and cars and other products and services by better understanding
Speaker 4: our audience ahead of time and then using that information
Speaker 4: for persuasion. But here we're just trying to gauge public
Speaker 4: opinion on those issues of policy or candidates.
Speaker 2: Gentlemen, I gotta jump in, Jack. We're flat out a
Speaker 2: time boy. I wish you called early. It was a
Speaker 2: great question, and Spencer, that's a great thanks Jack, Spencer,
Speaker 2: that's a great answer. Spencer, Thanks so much for your time.
Speaker 2: I know it's the busy season. I can't tell you
Speaker 2: how much I value your friendship and your work. And
Speaker 2: we will be watching very closely between now and Tuesday,
Speaker 2: and if you see anything that's interesting that you want
Speaker 2: to share with us any night, you got the private numbers, Okay.
Speaker 4: We'll send out a text. Thanks Dan, Thanks.
Speaker 2: So much, Thanks so much, Spencer, Kimball. Let's continue to
Speaker 2: talk about polls. We may agree or disagree on this,
Speaker 2: but i'd like to know your thoughts on polls. I
Speaker 2: think they're invaluable. And I tell you why I think
Speaker 2: they're going to be invaluable this time. Back on Night's side,
Speaker 2: right after the eleven o'clock news