Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for full court press.
We missed you guys a couple days off. Rob Bino's
back with us. We haven't seen Rob in a couple
of weeks, I think like a week and a half.
So Rob, how's it going. How is your time out
in Vegas? I saw you, saw some of the wager
Talk crew. And how has the tournament treated you to
this point?
Speaker 2: Yeah? First off, for a little vacation, felt like I
was on tour. For those who don't know, my son
is a drummer in a band. They opened tour in
Las Vegas. That's why I was there, followed them to
Los Angeles. Good time. Got to see a lot of
folks that we work with Adam, a lot of colleagues,
a lot of friends. Was a good time. Speaking of
good time, Sunday was a great time. Plus ten units
three and zero in the College hoop had to do
team total over sixty nine and a half in that game,
Adam and forty four. At halftime, I thought, well, this
is a cake walking, and all of a sudden it
wasn't a cakewalk. It got there, but it wasn't the
easiest win of all the other game I did have
the Michigan side in the first half. They absolutely annihilated
Tennessee from about the ten minute mark on and I
also had the Michigan team total over So it was
a very nice day. It was a little bit needed
because Friday Saturday were sporadic, sort of fifty to fifty,
but Sunday pushed it through. So again, it's been a
great college basketball season and hopefully we close on a
strong note as well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the goal here.
Speaker 1: You know, I had such a good run through the
conference tournaments that you know, I listen betting the NCAA tournament.
Once you get to the college basketball postseason, it's like
if you can make a few bucks, like that's great.
It's just you know, it used to be rob and
I'll use this kind of the lead into what we're
about to talk about. Used to be easier because you
almost used to be able to, like, I mean, you
had this huge betting menu of games for postseason where
it was like you had the NCAA Tournament, you could
pick your spots there. You had the nit where it
was like for the most part, except the only teams
that you ever had to really worry about, not caring
were those teams that like got their heart ripped out
on Selection Sunday that just like just totally gutted by
like the selection committee leaving them out. And then you'd
have like, for the most part, the CBI the field,
the teams that were there would care. You had the
College Insider Tournament that was mostly mid majors that would care.
And now it's like you have the NCAA Tournament the NIT.
You know, it's it's good, it's a solid tournament in
my opinion, but you still those early rounds have to
gauge who's in the portal and whatnot, and then you
come to the tournament we're gonna talk about today, the
main topic of today's show, the Crown, and it's like
you've got teams that haven't played in a couple of weeks,
guys entering the transfer portal, and ultimately you really have
to gauge like whether they want to be there or not.
I think that makes the postseason extremely challenging. So for me,
I'm you know, I had such a good start to
March that like I'm pretty content from a basketball standpoint
with how the month worked out. But yeah, like the
goal is like listen, We've got thirteen games left. We've
got thirteen games left in the college basketball season, three
in the NIT, three Final four championship game in the
NCAA Tournament, and then I believe a total of seven
in the crown.
Speaker 3: Let's find some winners. That's the goal of this show.
Speaker 1: But just talk to me a little bit about how
challenging that is for you, because I find that to
be a huge challenge that that's really come about more
in recent years.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think another thing that adds a little
bit to that, Adam, is the teams that defer not
to go to the NIT anymore. Like the list of
teams that shows not to play in that thing, then
you have to go back to the bottom of the
barrel and add teams in. And you'd rather have the teams.
A lot of the teams that decline this year, you'd
rather have them. You would think incentive or non incentive
is easier to handicap than the ones that are put
in their place. That makes the n T a little
bit rougher. This particular tournament that we're going to talk
about today, in some respects good for betters, in some
respects bad because lines will hop simply based on transfer
portal issues that we'll talk about here for some of
these teams. So it does become it's not I think
earlier in the season I said that I break the
NCAA basketball season into four separate ways of handicapping preseason,
non conference, conference tournament, and then postseason tournament. And I'll
stick to that. Postseason tournament is just a different handicap
and in some regards absolutely a little more difficult to handicap.
Then you don't get the steadiness which you found during
conference season, right, you found a rhythm of steadiness to it.
Things were what they were here, They're not always what
they should be in this postseason tournament stuff. So it's
a little bit more challenging, always fun. We love college basketball.
We'll see if we can't again close on a winning
note here, the two of us for this season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, there's still games to bet. We're still trying
to find ways to make money, and ultimately I think
if you are tuned in and selective that you can
do that. I actually think if you're talking about the
rest of the way, I think this Crown Tournament is
going to be your sort of like best chance to
make some money. So we're going to talk about all
four games of the Crown today before we get into it.
I'm going a little bit longer on the intro because
I want to make sure people know what they're getting
themselves into, what they're actually betting. So the Crown is
in its second year. Last year was the first year
of it. It was a mess. They didn't get the
appropriate licenses to offer lines on it. So like the
first day we showed up for Day one of the Crown,
the sixteen team field, everyone excited to bet on it,
and every legal book pulled the lines so you could
only bet it basically offshore or at your local book.
So it seems as though they've fixed that. I see
all of the legals for the most part, are offering
this tournament, and they've cut the field down from sixteen
to eight. So what that I feel like means, Robin,
I'll let you sort of weigh in here before we
go game by game.
Speaker 3: They cut the field down from sixteen to eight.
Speaker 1: I think for the most part, you have eight teams
that are interested in here, and then I would say
maybe probably six teams that like have their team. We'll
talk about the ones that maybe don't, but I do
like the fact.
Speaker 3: Listen, they should have.
Speaker 1: A big game feel. Every game is on Fox or
Fox Sports One. They're all nationally televised. They're either going
to be played at the MGM Guarden Arena, I believe
is where the quarterfinals are, and then the semis and
the finals are at TEA Mobile. I feel like this
should be a great sort of like, hey, we're running
out of basketball, but we have a brand new eight
team tournament starting. But there's the elephant in the room here, Robin.
Speaker 3: I'll let you comment on all of that.
Speaker 1: These teams have not played a competitive basketball game now
in over two weeks, and so how do you you
know what is your approach just in general before we
go game by game going into the field.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a personal guessing game, right, Adam. I mean
I may think one way, another guy may think another way.
It's hard because because again, when you have such a
lengthy layoff, it's all twenty twenty hindsight. You could say
you knew what was going to happen after the game
is finished, but prior to the start of it, you
don't know. Different rims. You heard Gino Oriema talk about
the women's game, brand new basketball's bounce too high, new
hoops every single day, a different practice times. Not necessarily
the case for the Crown, but you get the general
idea that it's a little bit out of rhythm for
college basketball teams to not play for this extended period
of time. So will they just continue on the way
they left off the season? Will somebody come from left
field and have a great tournament? That stuff is really
really hard to project. I think you read as much
as you can, you dive into it as much as
you can make your own personal opinion. I think there's
a couple of solid ones here in this crowd, as
you mentioned, I think it might be the best way
to make money the remainder of the college basketball season.
But you're right, it's the unpredictable, it's the unknown, and
nobody ever knows the answers to these questions. Whether a
team will have restore rust always the great question, right,
restore rust when it's over? We know before it starts,
you know. Sometimes you better said you end up kicking
yourself in game is helpful in these situations. In game
betting is very very helpful. So we'll give it a
go here. I do. Like I say, I think I
have a couple of solid opinions here, and I know
you do too, so we'll see if we can catch
them tickets.
Speaker 1: All right, The first game we're going in order, this
is tonight eight PMS Quarterfinal number one at the MGM
Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Oklahoma, taking on Colorado,
And I'll loop collins comment into sort of the way
I'm gonna set this game up.
Speaker 3: So he said, so first half unders.
Speaker 1: Now, if you go back to last year, no one
played any defense in those first round games. But you
have to remember that they brought sixteen teams to this
tournament last year and there was a lot of teams
that didn't have their full roster that.
Speaker 3: Like I remember, Boise State.
Speaker 1: Was like, we haven't touched a ball in two weeks
coming into the tournament last year. Like I think Degenhart
joked to the media before, He's like, we haven't practiced
at all, we haven't played any basketball. So we'll just
we're just here to roll the balls out and see
how it goes. Mark Lambert says he's on Colorado plus
eight and a half. So the thing I think you
really need to know here The one team that is
coming to this tournament very very shorthanded is the Colorado Buffaloes.
They are probably without three starters. I think four of
their top guys are now in the portal and will
not play in this tournament. But and here's where I'm
gonna let Rob sort of kick this off that has
now been reflected very much into the line. I think
if you want, you know, Oklahoma minus five and a
half was the fair price for this, assuming everyone was healthy,
you're looking at nine and a half circa Caesar.
Speaker 2: Some of these.
Speaker 1: Plays are up as high as ten. So now it
goes back to the mentality, Rob. You know, five point
move is probably appropriate for who Colorado is not gonna
have here. But do you trust Oklahoma taking it serious
enough to go out and beat whoever Colorado has on
the court by ten or more points? That's sort of
the I guess the where we start here for Game
one Colorado Oklahoma.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's take the Colorado side first, Adam, the
losses to the Portal are devastating the entire front line.
You know, Dak is gone, the freshman sensation guard Isaiah
Johnson gone, their leading score. What it leaves in the
wake of these portal departures for Colorado is you're probably
gonna see five freshmen on the floor quite a bit
tonight for Colorado. Tad Boyles quote in typical Tad Boile fashion,
they're moving on. So are we simple to the point
kind of abrupt. But it is what it is, and
it's more or less an audition for next season than
it is excitement to go out and win a tournament. Now,
there's money involved here, which we didn't mention in the crown.
First round winners get fifty thousand towards nil. Second round
winners get one hundred thousand towards nil. The champion gets
two hundred thousand. So the kids aren't playing. The seniors
on the way out aren't playing for maybe personal raises
to their contract at the university. But guys were sticking
around our for Oklahoma Adam. They closed the season so well.
You almost wish they had made the NCAAA tournament because
I think they could have been troublesome for a lot
of people inside that tournament. You also wish that they
didn't have a two week layoff because sometimes momentum gets disrupted. However,
led by Nigel Pack and company. I really feel like
they do want to win this thing. I think their
season was so discouraging isn't even a strong enough word. Actually,
to the way Oklahoma lost games early on that would
have made a difference in their resume, that would have
put them in the NCAA tournament. They suffered some painful losses,
but then they turned it around. Credit to this team
that they hung in there and turned it around. It
came on strong at the end of the SEC season.
I kind of feel like that attitude, that mentality sticks
with them. So I'm gonna give them a kind of
an arrow up in this tournament. Thinking that led by
pack who's on his way out, I guess to the
NBA or at least f ENBA tryouts, I think they'll
come to play. I think Colorado could be a little
bit disrupted when you don't have your point guard, when
you don't have your front line, they'll probably get crushed
on the boards here. Oklahoma could pressure them and force
them into mistakes. One thing about Colorado, and I saw
the comment on so first half unders from Colin Gregory.
I'm not going to talk about the total here, but
I will talk about the massive Probably a bad word multiple,
multiple first half disasters that Colorado had on the road
this year. You look at their first halves on the road,
and there were plenty of games where they're down twenty
at half. It was something they couldn't shake all season long.
This is a neutral, but still it's not in Boulder,
where Colorado is usually better. Put all those freshmen on
the floor a lot of an experience against a team
that may want I think Oklahoma is the right side here.
More than that, Oklahoma's predicated on offense and scoring. I
looked at the total last night. I saw an eighty
six and a half. I think eighty six and a
half was an absolutely good bet to take them over
in this case. Colorado's a bad defensive team to start with,
and now I see in at some outlets it's up
to eighty eight and a half. Eighty seven and a
half seems to be more of a common number. But
I still think Oklahoma will find their way even if
the game starts. I saw off a little bit cold
shooting because of the venue. I think Oklahoma's going to
get so many opportunities at the rim that it would
be hard to go cold. It's not going to be
a perimeter, a full perimeter jump shooting game for them.
So to me, I think they Oklahoma team total is
probably right if you play it over and I still think,
you know, because Colorado has been disastrous first halves on
the road, I wouldn't be opposed to playing Oklahoma minus
the points in this game either.
Speaker 1: Yeah, here's so, I got a couple of ways to
look at this, but ultimately, like, let's put it this way.
If this game was two weeks ago and you were
just saying Oklahoma against Colorado, break it down, I would
have loved Oklahoma in that matchup, the way they were playing,
the way that they should be able to score. And
then if you were to say, Okay, also Colorado is
going to be without this guy, this guy, this guy,
and this guy, it would be Oklahoma would have been
a no brainer under those circumstances. So for me, at
that minus five and a half, that opening number, like
Oklahoma no brainer, I would say, because that was gone
very like I don't think many people had had a
real crack at betting minus five and a half there,
because I think that kind of quickly moved as it
started to populate most places. I would almost say, like
even seven and a half or eight with Oklahoma as
like a pretty solid bet on the spread. Now, when
you get up to ten, yeah, that that you're getting
into bad number territory. But in game, if you can
you know, or if like you were saying, Oklahoma first half,
if it doesn't work out, come over the top on
the second half, I don't mind that either.
Speaker 3: A couple things I'll say about Colorado. So Colorado came
to this tournament last year.
Speaker 1: They were the only they're the only repeat team in
the field. They got destroyed by Villanova in the first round.
But and this is a little bit of a pro
Colorado take rob they decided to come to this tournament.
Like so, the way that this field is populated, the
Big Twelve, the Big Ten, and the Big East each
get two automatic bids, and then there's two at large
bids to fill out the eighteen field. However, the Big
East only utilized one of their auto bids because, like
I think Seaton Haul declined and maybe someone else declined.
So Creighton is the only team from the Big East.
The Big Twelve's auto bids were West Virginia and Baylor,
and then the auto bids from the other conference, the
Big Ten were the Big ten teams, so Colorado had
to accept this sort of offer as an at large,
which tells me that, like like Tad Boyle, he's if
he doesn't want to be there, if the team doesn't
want to be there, he's not going to accept the
at large to this quote unquote tournament now.
Speaker 3: There.
Speaker 1: I think he wants to be there because I think
he wants to play some of his guys that are
reserves that haven't gotten the time to play, and just
to get them sort of some exposure see what he's
got and some guys because I kind of think that's
what he did last year and they got run out
by Villanova I think by twenty. So even though Colorado
may take this seriously, I just think unless Oklahoma doesn't rob,
I think you've got to like the Sooners. And I
think that's the million dollar question when you get into
a tournament like this. If we knew, we'd bey on Oklahoma,
but because we don't, it's then for me almost impossible
to then take ten nine and a half.
Speaker 3: That's a big time premium number.
Speaker 1: I'm just not confident enough to punch back because I
think Oklahoma's the right side.
Speaker 2: You know. I think that's why I kind of shade
myself to the team total Adam in the case of Colorado,
the absences for those who don't know what those guys
were worth to the team. And again I like your
point because I fully believe that point about Tad Boyle
coming to this tournament to check into what he has
for next season. It's more of an experimentation than it
is a want to win type of deal, much like
it was last year for Colorado. Somebody's got to take shots, right,
I mean, Hargrest is going to take his because he's
been around, but the rest of these freshmen. So the
way the shots were distributed amongst this team this year,
forty six percent of those field goal attempts are gone.
That's nearly half. So somebody's got to take shots, and
who knows who's going to take those shots. And more
than that, forty seven and a half percent of the
three point shots that they took are gone into the portals.
So it definitely is in my estimation, experimentation, evaluation process
for Tad Boyle here Oklahoma. And the reason why I
would probably if I had to, I would lay it
is because it's a standalone tournament, all eyes on us tonight,
whoever's gonna watch, And with guys like Nigel Pack leading
the way, I feel like they do want to go
out on a good note and they'll play hard. So
if you get that effort from upperclassmen that have been
around that we're hot at the end of the year,
I think you probably get Oklahoma. But I do agree
with you the numbers climbing climbing, climbing, which puts me
toward team total. I think that's a little a little
softer landing spot to just bank on isolate and say
Oklahoma's going to get their They'll probably get ninety against
this team, which will blow defensive assignments likely all over
the floor because they're not used to playing with one another.
That's another thing always to consider. Guys. I'm talking a
little bit long here, but we only have four games,
so why not when you have these losses, everybody looks
to the offensive end first, you got to consider the
defensive end. Where defense is played as team defense, and
when you have five guys on the floor, then play
team defense together in actual game at game speed. It's
a little bit difficult. You do get a lot of
blown assignments. So for me, I think Oklahoma team total
is the right way.
Speaker 1: All right, let's head to quarterfinal number two, the second
game on the slate today. So they've broken this around
into into two days, two quarterfinals today, two quarterfinals tomorrow.
I see, I see some people like Slick Vic and
a couple other folks in the Chatsa's got to see
who's playing in these games.
Speaker 3: I think that's why we're here.
Speaker 1: I think Rob and I are going to do our
best to outline this, and again, I just want to
make it clear, like as far as you know, I'm
you know what, we will talk about that in each game.
The one team that really is like has wholesale guys
out is Colorado and we just outlined that. We just
spent ten minutes outlining that and what it means to
that team. For the most part, the other teams seem
to have their team. Now you have done, you know
what exactly does that mean? So let's go into Baylor Minnesota.
Speaker 3: This is going to be.
Speaker 1: Semi final number or a quarterfinal number two. This will
be ten thirty tonight at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
Now I've got I've got my you know, My buddy
ct Is is a Baylor alum tuned into the Baylor program.
He has told me that, like as you know, as
far as they know, so you know, it's always touch
and go with the portal, especially at these bigger schools.
But they are anticipating having everyone available. So that is
so I can tell you right now that I'm on
good you know, I'm pretty confident in saying Baylor will
have everyone there unless something has happened in the next
day or two that everyone has been in practice and
the practices have been encouraging from what I've heard, and
they are going out to compete. They want to compete,
and everyone will be there now. Minnesota, someone just asked
about Crocker Johnson. I don't believe he's playing, but that's
not because he's like opting out or anything.
Speaker 3: That's just because he's still hurt.
Speaker 1: As far as I know, so that would be Jalen
Crocker Johnson has not played since February eighth, and I
heard nothing about him being available here, so I'm operating
under the assumption that he is not available. Minnesota at
the end of the season had six guys. Okay, so
you have to ask yourself. So here's the what we
have to figure out. And I'm going to bring Rob
Vino in to help me figure this out. Right now,
Minnesota played six guys in their loss in the Big
Ten Tournament to Rutgers, so and that was pretty much
their rotation at the end of the year, was their starters,
and then they'd bring like, you know, like the guy
that played in the in that game, kaya Chinholster off
the bench.
Speaker 3: I mean he only played like ten minutes.
Speaker 1: So the question here is does Minnesota just roll up,
you know, Sienna s Rob with five guys for the
whole forty minutes, or does Nico med Been say, you
know what, I want to see what I have on
my roster, and I want to go like down the
bench and get some guys minutes that don't that don't
really get the minutes that often.
Speaker 3: I like the way Nedved prepares.
Speaker 1: But if this is suddenly like Minnesota's bench guys in
this game, I don't think that's a good look for
the Gophers.
Speaker 2: Here. Yeah, and here's the way. And let me just
comment on Crocker Johnson really quick. Everything I read is
he won't play. There's no reason to risk a foot
injury for this However, we talked a little bit earlier
about the Oklahoma Colorado dynamic. Who wants to be there,
who doesn't want to be there, what's the coach's mentality
towards this game, etc. Both of these teams. You roll
through some of the quotes here from head coaches, and
everybody wants to play. Scott Drew, I'll just give you
a few words from him. Every postseason experience is a blessing.
What I mean by that is not many people get
a chance to play this time of year. There will
be a lot of eyes, a lot of attention, a
lot of scouts, and a lot of opportunities for our guys.
That's basically what I was talking about with Nigel Pack
and some of the leadership for Oklahoma saying true for Baylor,
they seem to be of that mindset. Nico medbeed a
little bit different, but say attitude and he said, I
asked the guys what they wanted to do, and they
wanted to play. They said Vegas, Baby, let's go. So
you've got that team that wants to be there as well.
Now the point about being shorthanded, six guys, etc. This
is an interesting game because the contrast is real. Baylor
will want to get out and go a little bit.
I know that their overall season tempo numbers don't indicate
that they're high tempo, but they have played. Baylor's kind
of the team that will play to its opponent, and
hopefully tonight Scott Drew, if you bet Baylor, you don't
really want them to play to their opponents liking because
what Minnesota did to close the season, what Minnesota will
do here is they will take their short handedness and
they will turn that into let's shorten the game, sixty
two possessions, sixty three possessions. Let's see if we can
make this a sixty two to fifty nine game. And
in that instance, if it comes down to it, it's
it could be a toss up, it could be a
Kay Tyson is good enough to make a shot at
the end of the game to win. Kate Tyson is
good enough to carry Minnesota in a low scoring game.
For Baylor, I think they want to push tempo a
little bit. They've got more numbers, obviously. The quote from
Drew indicating that he's got a lot of guys who
want the eyes on them and are looking for opportunistic
or opportunities in this game. I kind of lean Baylor here, Adam. Honestly,
I think that the depth actually wins out, and I
think that foul trouble could cost Minnesota in any instance
no matter who, because you don't want to limit. But
I have seen this year more times than one because
Minnesota has been shorten handed a lot. Remember Kay Tyson
was out for an extended period as well, and Nico
Medved in more than one game somehow kept his team
in it. There were some blowouts in there, don't get
me wrong, but there were times where he kept his
team in it against teams that he shouldn't have been
in it against, and they kept it low scoring. So
to me, the contrast is what you're debating here. Do
you think Baylor's gonna get some cheap points, which they
should obviously look for, They should look for defensive rebound
and go because Minnesota doesn't want that and they can't
keep up with that. So to me, I would lean Baylor.
It's hard for me to project total here simply because
to honestly, to me, one forty eight and a half
looks way too high. I'd be honest with that. I
just don't see Minnesota getting involved in and up and
down unless another great unknown, unless Nico Medved plans on
next season becoming a little bit more of a tempo
team and practicing that here tonight with his team. Hey guys,
we're gonna run a little more next year. Let's put that.
Let's plement that year and see what it looks like.
So that's the stuff you're up against handicapping these games.
And like I say, I would have slightly Baylor. I
just think too many numbers, a little more talent and
hope if you bet Baylor, you're hoping that they don't
get slowed down to a halt by Minnesota.
Speaker 3: To me, yeah, like I wore my Baylor zip up.
Speaker 1: I wanna I want to really like Baylor just in
this hole, in this whole tournament here. Well, I think
that the you know, again, the million dollar question here
with Medved and and you know, just going into this
game is you know, he is an elite schemer, game planner,
like that this is not the guy that you want
to want to be, Like like he can out X
X and O Scott Drew in his sleep, probably right,
But like it's really gonna come down to how he's
how he's approaching this from like a roster utilization standpoint. Now,
if he's a total psycho and he's been putting together
a game plan for two weeks and is like, I'm
only playing these five guys and this is what we're
gonna do to beat Baylor, well, then Minnesota's gonna have
a pretty good chance in that regard. But if he's
going into this where it's like, all right, we got
to make sure, you know we were going five to
six man rotation toward the end of the year, We're
gonna go more like ten here because we got to
get some guys that haven't played some playing time. Then
I think they get killed because the thing is Minnesota
can't rebound. They're gonna get crushed on the glass by Baylor,
and Baylor has a legitimate eight nine man rotation where
there's not gonna be much drop off, And so if
Baylor shows up and everyone's there and they're engaged, it's
hard to see them not covering this number. It would
take like an elite game plan in my opinion for Medved,
where like you said, the under probably makes a lot
of sense if he were if he were to go
five guys play some zone, really try to slow the
game down and like try to try to eliminate Baylor's
like physicality and rebound. Then you're probably gonna get it under.
But my gut says, that's not what he's gonna do.
Like gut says, this is probably Hey, like we're gonna
prepare for this game. We're gonna probably play six through
ten on the bench, get him, get him a look,
get him a few minutes, and then if we're in
it at the end, obviously we'll go to our five
starters try to win the game. But by that point
it might be too late. You're not getting any second chance.
Baylor's gonna clean up the glass. That's probably another way
it goes under. I kind of think Baylor could blow
them out. That's what my gut says here.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And Crocker Johnson, I mean we we threw his
name around a little bit there, but the value to
this team of Crocker Johnson is immense. We talked about
Colorado having you know, probably gonna have difficulty rebounding, Like
Crocker Johnson is their guy. I mean, he's really kad Tyson, Jalen.
Crocker Johnson it's those two guys on this team and
the rest kind of fill in. They are smallish without him,
they are I'm the glass boy. They are deprived, so
to speak, on the glass tonight against Baylor. So numbers wise,
talent wise, Baylor probably is the right side. And the
great question is how will Nico Medbed coach this? This
is an audition for twenty twenty six season or is
this Let's go win and get some nil money because
at Minnesota we don't have enough nil money to go
around here.
Speaker 1: All right, let's head to tomorrow quarterfinal number three. Keep
wanting to call them semi finals because there's only two,
but again we're breaking a quarterfinal round into two days.
So tomorrow, same location, MGM, Grand Garden Arena. This is
the most interesting game to me of the four Stanford
West Virginia. It opens West Virginia pick from a like
this looks like it could go one of like ten ways.
I think there's really sort of like some good matchup
type stuff for both of these teams. And I again
I think this is another Well this one for me,
Rob is you know, how serious is West Virginia taking this?
Because if they are and they roll up with one
of the elite defensive game plans that they've made their
hallmark under Ross Hodge and that they've had all season.
I think they probably give Stanford a hard time. But
if they don't, Stanford's got a guy that might be
able to just torch and by themselves by himself in
Cory So Stanford West Virginia, I think it rightfully open pick.
I'm right around there as well. Talk to me about
this one side er totally. Are you gonna find a
way in to Stanford West Virginia tomorrow night?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd like to find my way into West Virginia
because I just feel like this is a game where
extended layoff time could help West Virginia in the context.
And here's my thought process is, when you play Stanford,
you have to cut the head off the snake. Two
weeks to prepare a defensive game plan. If I give
that to Ross Hodge, who's a defensive, slower paced head
coach anyway, we talked about him a lot this season,
his pedigree coming from North Texas, et cetera, et cetera.
Give him two weeks to figure out some sort of
game plan to not shut down. Because I don't think
you shut down o'cory, he's that good. But to contain
o'cory and let the rest of these Stanford kids try
to beat you. I think that when I use that mindset,
which is where I started this handicap from, I kind
of like West Virginia. I think the talent level in
the Big Twelve obviously was better than what Stanford faced
inside the inside the ACC, Stanford a little more travel
tested because they had to do what you have to
do if you're a West Coast member of the ACC,
back and forth and back and forth, and this in
Las Vegas is a little closer to their home. Will
West Virginia travel, they really do as a program travel
and Las Vegas is a nice destination for those who
have gone through the winter in West Virginia. But we'll
see how many people they bring out it and see
attendance figures or ticket sales for this. But Stanford probably
has a little bit of a of a edge fan
wise here. All that aside, I really think that for
me it boils down to that one thing, is West
Virginia capable of containing o Corey? And I do feel
like with two weeks and the head coach that can
defensive game plan. I think they can make life rough
for o Corey in this game, and instead of getting
you know, twenty five points, let's say he gets fourteen
in this game and has a rough night shooting because
they're hounding him and forcing other guys if other guys
step up for Stanford. That's one thing. West Virginia is
not the greatest offensive team on the face of the earth,
but let's in honesty, they've had to contend with players
like go Corey inside the Big Twelve all season long,
from Darren Peterson on down, you've had to Devance. You've
had to contend with these guys all year, So it
shouldn't be anything new for West Virginia. For that reason,
I kind of like that side, Adam. I haven't bet
them yet, but I do think, and I'll add to this,
Stanford is not anywhere near the defensive quality of eighty
percent of the Big Twelve, and so for that reason,
it might be a little easier for West Virginia to
score here. They might not find it as difficult against
this defense. We will see, but I sort of lean
toward West Virginia, and I probably I will say this
in all likelihood I'll get there with West Virginia in
this game, but I haven't yet.
Speaker 1: Well, the books are certainly tempting you to do that.
Stanford's taking money right now. They're up to minus one
and a half, so you can actually some of these places,
you can grab yourself a point and a half with
West Virginia, which I actually that that's about playable for me.
I made this West Virginia minus one and a half,
So I actually I made West Virginia, you know, opening pick,
I made them the slight favorite.
Speaker 3: They've now moved to a slight underdog.
Speaker 1: Uh. It's also a day before the game. I wouldn't
be at all surprised to see that slammed back into
the other direction at some point. So might might not
be the worst time if you want to grab West
Virginia to grab that point in half. I so the
way I'm looking at it very similar in the respect that, like,
I just think the defense is gonna win out here
for West Virginia. I think you could make a case
for the under because Stanford's played a lot of zone
down the stretch, but it's also because they're not good defensively,
Like let's make let's make that clear the reason Kyle
Smith has gone to zone is out of just sheer
desperation for his team sucking. Like there this is not
a good team, Like I didn't think they were a
great team all year. It's not a great defensive team.
They lost their biggest post presence, Chishomock Para. He so
if you want to if you want the report of
who's playing who's not, uh Okpara has been out for
a while, Like he's been out I think since January.
Speaker 3: I don't think anyone else of note is out.
Speaker 1: But the reason I'm bringing him up is because they
their defense started to take a dive without him to
the point where like they kind of just have gone
zone and hope teams or.
Speaker 3: Just can't shoot.
Speaker 1: Now, that's not the worst thing to do against West
Virginia because this is not a prolific offensive team, But
like West Virginia has also struggled, Like a lot of
their issues rob have been have revolved around struggling to
put the ball in the basket. And it's like Stanford
just doesn't do enough defensively to make me think that
they can't find a way to put the ball in
the basket. A little bit, right, like, I just don't
think there's any scenario where Stanford comes in with this
like wipeout defensive game play.
Speaker 3: So if you think West.
Speaker 1: Virginia can do something, and you think that they can
maybe stop a Courey from like going for forty here,
you gotta like the Mountaineers.
Speaker 2: I would say, yeah, I'm with you there, Like I say,
the level of competition that westfide and they beat some
of these teams. Adam, they beat BYU. I granted it
was in Morgantown, Okay, but you're really not supposed to
beat BYU if you're West Virginia. They beat a high
scoring team in UCF down the stretch. BYU got them
in a revenge game in the tournament. But again, when
you're playing Cincinnati, when you're playing Texas Tech, when you're
playing Kansas, when you're playing BYU, when you're playing Arizona,
these are teams that come at you in waves defense.
I don't think I said it, you reiterated it. Stanford
is just not good defensively. This is gonna be a
step down in class. I found the defensive side for
the West Virginia offense two weeks off. Who knows they
didn't shoot well to start with, but I have a
little bit of trust in Honor Huffett point guard to
direct the ship pretty well against this team. And one
more time. You know, Okory is a great player. But
if you make your focus and you have tunnel vision on,
let's just get after this guy. I could see Stanford
going a little bit cold offensively in West Virginia pulling
this one out. So I leaned that way, and like
I said, I will likely get there with West Virginia.
Speaker 1: Listen, I have no intel if this would be the
case or not, but Stamford is right around the corner
to Vegas.
Speaker 3: It's a quick trip.
Speaker 1: There is a world where this is like just kind
of a vacation for Stanford. Like, hey, it was a
tough season, you know, let's let's get a little team
building here. It was a tough season. Let's go blow
off some steam in Vegas and it's a quick trip.
Let's just roll the balls out and see what happens
to go play a game. If that is the case,
they will get destroyed in this game, because I don't
think West Virginia is flying across the country and knowing
Ross Hodge and the way he coaches like, it'd be
really surprising if that there, If that's their mindset. I
have a feeling that West Virginia is gonna have a
good defensive game plan, and if if Stanford's just like, eh,
you know whatever, We're just gonna just just go and
wing it and see what happens. I think they they
probably score fifty points in the game. So yeah, I'm
with you there, thinking West Virginia is the lean in
that one. All right, let's go to the final game
tomorrow night, ten thirty Eastern time, MGM Grand Garden Arena,
the final quarterfinal and what could be the final game
in a a illustrious career for Greg McDermott Creighton bringing
his team to this tournament.
Speaker 3: Rob, I'll start it right there.
Speaker 1: How is he can't possibly just like lose this game
his coaching career?
Speaker 3: He hangs it up.
Speaker 1: I feel like he's got to almost go out winning
this tournament. Why else would show up? Why else would
he come?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 3: Maybe you know, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think at the very least his players have to
play hard for him for that reason. Now Rutgers, on
the other hand, they're bringing everyone. They tweeted out their roster.
They said, we're they have the whole roster. They put
it in a tweet, they said, we are all traveling
to Vegas.
Speaker 3: We're ready to go.
Speaker 1: So talk to me about Creighton Rutgers, the motivation factor
and you know, if you have a way into this
final quarterfinal.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is probably the one game where I would
make a definitive case for the over. Rutgers has been
so miserable defensively all season long, it's hard to think
that they're just you know, they could bring the whole
whole team, they could bring everybody, bring the guy who
waves the tiles, bring them all. It's not going to
change their defensive ability. They can't play defense. So Creighton,
in that respect, I think, who have had a very
up and down season. Games where they've wound up in
the nineties, games where they've wound up in the high fifties,
low sixties. It's been that type of up and down
with this particular group who isn't as offensive minded as
past elite editions have been, but they're good enough against
this Defenseive my estimation to the Greg McDermott issue, I mean,
if you're the Crown, let's get referees who are gonna
blow whistles anti Rutgers and push this guy through. I mean,
you can't allow I won't say it that way. I'll
say it this way. The players, I think, will give
one maximum effort for their head coach. He's a likable guy.
Every group he's ever had, and what's been a the
longevity of this career has been such to where the
players will play for him. I don't think we're gonna
doubt that. If they didn't, I would be very, very surprised. That.
Being said, you know, Creighton will We talked earlier about Rutgers.
Let me start there when they had to change their ways, right.
Pichael had the two freshmen last year, Ace Bailey Dylan Harper.
We're gonna play fast. We're gonna let these two guys
take all the shots. They had to make. Some changes
on the fly really affected their defense this year. He
is generally a defensive mind. The coach haven be a
good on the defensive side. But they did play pretty
good offense down the stretch against Big ten competition, So
I think they'll score on Creighton. I'm gonna build my
case for the over now. And on the other side,
I've mentioned two or three times now that I don't
think Rutgers is a very good defensive team, and Creighton
should be able to score on them. The two week
layoff again, we'll bring that up. That's the great equalizer here,
and my guess is that eventually there'll be enough opportunities
for scoring in this game for both sides. I don't
particularly care for the Creighton defense either, so Rutgers probably
will get their share. Like I say, they did it
against Big ten competition for the most part. Down the stretch.
They were involved in some games where they get gave
up a bunch, but they're able against teams in that
league out and to get you know, seventy points, I
think they probably find the mid seventies here. If Creighton wins,
this game goes over pretty easily. That's kind of the
way I'm using my mathematics here to get to this total.
We'll see if it goes up from this number. Right,
we have a day left here to see which way
they bet it. So far it's been bet pretty solidly.
One forty eight and a half two one fifty one
and a half. I'm not willing to go much further.
I'll set a parameter for folks right now, I don't
think I would want to be beyond one fifty two
and a half. I think one fifty three is a
real key number here in this game. Somewhere in the
vicinity of you know, at one fifty three it's a
it's a you want to win with a seventy nine
to seventy four type game. I think you can find
that here. So for me, it's going to be over.
And I do think Creighton will win. Looking at the
numbers now current as we speak, opener of three up
to four four and a half, Rutger's gonna bring some emotion.
Creighton will as well. I think I'd isolate just play
this game over.
Speaker 1: So one guy that's not gonna be giving his all
for Greg McDermott is Austin Schwartz. It pretty much McDermott
came out and ruled him out without like officially saying it,
said he's he's working through an injury. That is what
working through an injury is code for, he's not playing.
Like there's no way that working through an injury is
gonna mean like out there in the first game of
this tournament now based on the severity of it, like
do we see him. Remember, you're gonna have some days off.
The title game isn't until Sunday. Could we see him
at some point? It sounds like he traveled with the team,
so maybe, but that was not encouraging. Now you know
he yeah, ten point nine point six per game. He's
one of four Creighton Blue Jays that was in double
figures this year. Does that totally like deter me from
liking Creighton here? No, I still think And I'll go
back to kind of a point you made, Rob right, Rutgers,
bring anyone you want, right, as long as it's not
Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, as long as you can
put them back on the roster, doesn't matter if you
have your whole team. Your whole team wasn't very good
now though I can't say that, and then not at
least point out maybe the what this tournament means to them. Listen, Rutgers.
At the end of the year, they went on the
road and beat Maryland. They took Michigan State to overtime
in a game they probably should have won the Breslin Center,
and then they closed the year out and blew out
Penn State. Then they went to the Big Ten tournament
and beat Minnesota and then eventually bowed out against UCLA.
This team played those final couple weeks of the season,
Rutgers played their best basketball the year, like, not even close.
They played far better than they did the almost all
of Big Ten play. So I guess the way into
for Rutgers here and if you if you just want
to offer an opposing viewpoint, is like this could this
is a theoretically could be a stepping stone for next
year for a team that finished year at the bottom
of the Big Ten. Like, gotta think pikel is gonna
have a lot of these guys back because I can't
imagine that many are are garnering much interest, right I
don't know that people are lining up to to raid
this Rutgers roster for players, So he's probably got most
of these guys back, So this could be like a
you know, I do think that Rutgers takes this very seriously,
and they tweeted out.
Speaker 3: That everyone's in, that everyone's playing.
Speaker 1: The question you have to ask yourself is is Rutgers
best effort good enough to beat Creighton? If Creighton is
also engaged in this game, that's tough.
Speaker 3: I think.
Speaker 1: I think talent wise, even without Swartz, I'm still on
the crighton side numbers probably right.
Speaker 3: I made it. I tried to make the number the
best I could.
Speaker 2: I made it.
Speaker 3: Creighton my is four point six.
Speaker 1: The opener of three was appealing, I suppose, But now
in the four four and a half range, I don't
know if I could get there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting with Rutgers if you wanted to justify
or make an anti case to those wins. The close
call with Michigan State was three days before Michigan State's
rematch with Michigan. Maybe Michigan overlooked them. And then the
trio of you know, Maryland, Minnesota and Penn State. You know,
you could arguably say they're three of the worst teams
in that league this year. So, but that doesn't deny
the fact, you know, Creighton is no world beater, and
so it doesn't deny the fact that Rookers did play
good and won games down the stretch. And I think
they can score here, Adam, honestly. And one more thing
to Schwartz, which is ir Schwartz, which is a loss,
no question, He's their best three point shooter. But if
Creighton was gonna suffer a personnel loss in this game,
that's probably the best position to suffer it at because
Graves can handle the point. The kid from Iowa, Josh Dix,
can shoot threes. They've got a couple of guys that
shoot at least thirty five percent, So I think in
in Creighton's in Creighton's world, if they were gonna have
a I'd rather have that than have missing a front
line guy where I think they're shorter or thinner. Be
a good game. And again, what we want is both
teams to be focused to right, and these two definitely
should be focused for this game.
Speaker 1: Mark maybe makes the point of the show. Yeah, Rutgers
needs the money badly. Rutgers needs the money bad Like
I would say that they probably they are. They are
in debt that that program, so they probably need the
money more than anyone. I don't know if that means
they win, but that might be the motivating factor here.
Billy Humphrey says, yeah, fifty grand for the win would help.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Uh, they may be showing up to play for that
pri money parlay time.
Speaker 1: We'll we'll fire off the last couple of the year,
see if we can run it up in this final week.
We're still out operating at a deficit for the season,
but hey, maybe we can hit a couple and get
closer to even This will be from the Crown, so
tomorrow we can we can circle back on a couple
of these games that haven't happened. But tomorrow's show will
be mostly devoted to the n i T semi finals,
and then we'll have time to talk some other stuff,
and then Friday will be the Final four show, and
then we'll also talk Final four. Friday show is going
to be Final four n i T Championship game, and
then I think Tomorrow will probably do one of the
Crown semis and then Friday will do the other. So
that's what you're looking for at and then Rob and
I'll come on with an abbreviated show on Monday morning
just to sign off for the year and talk the
National Championship game. So that is the schedule for this week.
And Rob, I'm gonna let you kick it off. What
is your what is your best bet for the Crown?
What is your parlay leg here for the Crown.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I'm going with tonight's games, I'm going to
use the Oklahoma team total over in fairness to the audience.
I did get eighty six and a half last night.
I did release it to clients at eighty six and
a half. Now it's eighty seven and a half. In
most venues you will see a couple of places that
you know up straight to eighty eight and a half.
But eighty seven and a half I'll use for the
show purposes. If you want to buy down, we do
this all the time, Adam right, if you want to
buy down to eighty six and a half and pay
the higher big then you know obviously I'm behind that
as well. But I'm going to use Oklahoma team total
over tonight for purposes of this show. I think we'll
use eighty seven and a half. That seems to be fair.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's I know, I agree with that.
Speaker 1: I think it's a way to play Oklahoma, which is
which is how I would want to get involved in
that game. So I'll go ahead and keep my parlay
lake to tonight. That way we will know if we win,
and then tomorrow we can you know, I guess the
Tomorrow's Crown games are fair game for the parlay as
well that we start, you know, tomorrow, So I'll go
to the like.
Speaker 3: Go to the later game. I'm just gonna lay the
three and a half with Baylor.
Speaker 1: I am not saying this anywhere else, but if you've
made it this far, and since you guys are the
loyal viewers, that is my client play, so you know,
there's no need to buy it. If if you've made
it this far, if you want to buy something, I've
got some baseball up for sale and we've got some
great specials there. But we're late enough in the season
where I'm just gonna you know, if you're still watching
the college basketball shows at this point, props to you.
Speaker 3: We appreciate you.
Speaker 1: And so I did go four percent on Baylor minus
three and a half. Laid out the reasoning earlier, and
again I just think hearing that they're engaged and that
they are, you know, taking this seriously, which is I've
got that on on good intel from my buddy ct
bets Baylor Alon who's tuned into the program there. I
just don't see how they don't overwhelm Minnesota over the
course of forty minutes, big rebounding edge and if medved,
even if this is even a little bit of a
let's tinker and see what we got here. I think
by the time you see what you got, Baylor could
be up fifteen or twenty. I just think that they're like,
not only are they superior if these two teams were
at full strength, but you know, obviously Crocker Johnson's been out.
Even if even if Minnesota had this great game plan
with five guys, I still think they kind of get
out physicaled here by Baylor. So three and a half
minus won ten is what I got for clients right now.
You can get three and a half minus one fifteen,
and so that will be my leg for the parlay.
Baylor minus three and a half minus one fifteen, which
gives us a two team or today that are both
the Wednesday night games.
Speaker 3: So Rob is gonna go with Oklahoma team total over.
Speaker 1: Eighty it and a half, and then I'm gonna go
with Baylor minus three and a half minus one fifteen.
Rob and I will be back same time tomorrow, except
I'll be pretty close to Indy by that point because
I'll be at the NIT games tomorrow night that we're
gonna talk about right here on this show, and I'm
gonna be in Indy for a while. So if you're
at the final four, I know, we had a couple
of viewers earlier in the week say they're going hit
me up, would love to meet out you out. I'm
gonna kind of be around all week and I'm gonna
see if I can, you know, see if I can
weasel my way into the games on Saturday. Definitely gonna
go to the Sunday n T Final and then I'll
probably go to the If I don't go Saturday, I'll
certainly go Monday, so to the final at Lucas Oil Stadium.
So I'll be around all weekend. Come say hi, shoot
me a DM. We'd love to meet up and meet
as many of you as possible, and again one more
time our parlay.
Speaker 3: I think Andy Lang be with me tomorrow night. That
might be the bigger draw.
Speaker 1: I'm dragging him to Hinklefield House, Robino, so you know
we'll have we'll have Andy lives in Indy, so yeah,
we'll be uh, we'll be out and about and yeah,
Oklahoma team total over eighty seven and a half for
rob Baylor minus three and a half for me. That's
our show. That's our parlay today. We'll see you back
ten am Eastern tomorrow to talk the n T thirteen
games left. Let's make the best of it and have
a great day.
Speaker 2: Everybody