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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is Monday time for

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total bases. The trade deadline has passed, the teams have

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settled in, We've seen their new guys start to play

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over the weekend, and now we're here to to just

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forge ahead the dog days as they call it. It's

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August August fourth, and got about two months ago the

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rest of the regular season. So I'm here with Brian

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Leonard and Tokyo Brandon and we are going to start.

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I didn't even know this was a thing until earlier today.

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Apparently we have a super chat which I've now somehow

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managed to lose, and the super chat comment how I

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lost it? That's just Monday morning, right there, Brian Leonard,

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I've lost the comment somehow, even though it was starred

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there it is hot.

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Speaker 2: Where are the comments? Tokyo click start that's right there. Yeah, anyway,

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TV's on it.

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Speaker 1: We want to know about the Orioles, and the Orioles

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are going to take on the Phillies who late, well

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not really late. Felt like it was late for me

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because I got some sun yesterday, so I was very tired.

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But last night closed out a two nothing win over

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the Tigers to take two of three from Detroit this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Now they take on the Orioles Brian Leonard.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's hit this one for dal G DLG in

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the comics, Phillies Orioles Philly is a pretty big favorite.

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Speaker 2: How are you seeing this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we appreciate the the request and and obviously the money.

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Appreciate it. Thank you, Baltimore, Philadelphia. Povich coming back a

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couple of lefties publishing Lozardo Jesus or Jesus if you're

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Tokyo Brandon uh one ninety three is looking Yeah, something

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like that, maybe one ninety five for Philadelphia. Total of

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eight and a half to the over of twenty five,

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eight and a half to the over twenty five. Polvich

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two of five on the season five point one five,

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six point three three expected one point five to zero whip.

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It's been a while since he's pitched. Let's take a

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look at the game logs. He has not gone since

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June fifteenth. He faced the Angels, actually pitched pretty well,

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but they sent him down to the minors and he's back,

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and he's a guy that we were excited about going

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into twenty twenty four. He's not a guy who's gonna

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blow you away with his stuff. But he is a

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guy that's supposed to be had very good, pretty good control,

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and was going to be at least one of the

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future starters for the Orioles. Hasn't worked out that way

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in two seasons. Five point one eighty RA one point

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four to six whip. You take a look at his

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stack cast page, just basically all blue, terrible numbers when

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it comes to expected dra first percentile expected batting, the average, fifth,

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average eggs, velosity third, chase raight eighth, bearrel right second,

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hard hit rate first. So if this is the same

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cade Povi, it's coming back here for Baltimore, I don't

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want a part of him. But he did get a

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lot of height before he started up here in the pros.

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He looked pretty good in in the minors. He does

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throw five pitches mostly is four seamer at thirty seven percent,

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but it's about one mile an hour less than the

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average left hander. Also, his rus Lozardo a guy who's

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really struggled a little bit at times this year. Other

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times he's been great. He's got nine wins on the season,

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but he had a four point three to one ERA

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one point three seven whip expected. The are much better, well,

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I guess not much better, but three point sixty three

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something more you would expect out of this Philadelphia starting staff.

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No extension, he's only six foot seventh percentality and the extension.

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But he's got a lot of red on his his

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stat cast chart. He's got five pitches. He does throw

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the four seamer more often, but it's a pretty good

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four seamer ninety six point four, which is three point

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three percent three miles an hour better than a normal

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left handed pitcher. The line here looks to be a

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little high if you ask me. Baltimore's hitting very well

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lately over the last fourteen days. Baltimore's second right behind

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the Browers and WRC plus. So you got a good

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hitting Baltimore team. I think we've seen the worst of

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kde Polovich. He would probably be somebody I'd like to

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see him come out and pitch a decent game here

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so we can get like a by signal on him.

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But the way Baltimore's hitting Philadelphia had that LA game

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last night, I see a little bit of value here

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on Baltimore.

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Speaker 4: So Philadelphia is just a really good team and they

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have such a good rotation here. I like to look

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at how pitchers have fared against the batters they're facing today,

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but not no real sample size to look at here

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for these two teams, So the only thing to do

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is is kind of compare everything else. Don't bet against Jesus,

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but today you might bet against Jesus because he's only

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ranked sixteen out of thirty on a curve of thirty.

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I don't have kid Povic ranked because he doesn't have

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enough innings logged in the last thirty days. Neither bullpen's

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performing well. I have them both ranked twenty one twenty

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two ish out of thirty. But Baltimore has been cranking

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the ball a little better than Philadelphia has. I thought

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Lozarto would be really good coming over from a bad

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team to a good team. He started out pretty good,

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kind of tailed off a little bit, but I would

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agree with Brian if I were to play this, maybe

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the Orioles would be a decent chance here, even though

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they're not playing for anything and Philly's playing for everything.

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But man, Baltimore sure is hitting better than Philadelphia right now,

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so I might want to take a flyer on them.

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I might not, though, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I like how the Orioles have played the last week

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or two. You know, you talk about not playing for anything,

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and you're probably right. I think they're eight and a

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half games out of a wild card spot. Crazier things

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have happened, but they would take a pretty big surge

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to get them back in the mix. That being said,

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they've played arguably their best ball of the season the

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last sort of week or two. You know, something I

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talked about last week and it totally burned me was

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Orioles against left handed pitching. I went against them twice

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in a double header where they were opposing left handed starters,

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and they played great. And they've actually done well a

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couple of times now, so they're sort of putting that

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to bed. You know, if you look at their full

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season numbers on the road and against left handed pitching

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hasn't been great, but recently they've been better, and it's

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just you know, maybe it's getting healthier, maybe it's you know,

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sort of switching the roster up a little bit. They

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called up a guy named Jeremiah Jackson that's been awesome

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at Triple in the miners, Double A, Triple A this year.

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He got the call. He was in the lineup yesterday.

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So I'm I like the way the Orioles have played.

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And I'll talk about Povich for a minute, because he's actually,

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you know, he's been hurt, but he's had quite a

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law an extended rehab, so he's been They've really.

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Speaker 2: Given him like the full sort of. I think it

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has something.

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Speaker 1: To do with not really having a spot for him slash,

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not wanting to run up his innings because going back

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to Tokyo Brandon's point, they are a little bit, you know,

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out of it, sort of on the fringes right now.

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So he's been rehabbing for a month in the minors,

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one start an a ball for Aberdeen, three starts for Norfolk.

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His numbers in July in his rehab stints and the

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Miners are three point three eight e er. But more

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importantly a two oh seven batting average against and a

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zero point nine to four whipth Those are very good

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numbers for a starting pitcher. The Phillies, I've said this

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a million times, great hitting team, great team all around,

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but where you can maybe expose them a tiny bit

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is against the left handed pitcher and maybe one that

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throws some junk that keeps the ball off speed.

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Speaker 2: That's really what Povich does.

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Speaker 1: That's that's where he's gonna make his money in this

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league if he does, which I think we're you know,

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I think we're in agreement that he's probably gonna be

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in the league for a while. He's not like he

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should be a starter in Major League Baseball for a

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few years. Like that is his kind of upside. He

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was very highly rated if you go back to last year.

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He's gonna keep hitters off balance. He's a south paw,

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he's gonna get lefties out, and he's gonna kind of

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throw that you know, that off speed stuff in there.

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And we've seen left handed pitchers make careers out of

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this ten fifteen years of doing that in this league.

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So I'm higher on Povich than the market. I'm starting

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to come around on the Orioles. The only thing that

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even keeps me off of this a little bit is

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the fact that they're going against a lefty, because they

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have struggled against lefties this year a little bit. But

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I'd rather take my I think I'm willing to take

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my chances that they can trum up some offense.

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Speaker 2: I like the plus one and a half, so I'm

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gonna put this in the parlay.

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Speaker 1: Orioles plus one and a half, Brian Leonard, what do

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we have there for a you surprise me there?

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Speaker 3: Then early here with the parlay, let's take a look

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the spread football and were okay, we're looking at plus

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one and a half minus one twenty basically across the board.

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Speaker 2: That's great, I'll take that.

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Speaker 1: You got the you know, you do have the you

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do have a team coming off Sunday night baseball, which

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is not a huge deal. But I'm less concerned with

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the fact that they played Sunday night baseball and more

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concerned with, like the way that game played out. It

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was just a tight game and then it went down

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to the wire and they sort of get the big win,

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use Duran for the save. Now they have to turn

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around and play again. I think that's you know, it's

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just not the easiest setup, regardless of what night of

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the week it is.

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Speaker 2: So again, a.

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Speaker 1: Lot of reasons to like the Orioles here, and you're

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getting the run with the road team. I think that's

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really good. That might even be a client play for me,

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but for now it will go in the parlay. So great,

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great question right there. It led to a good discussion,

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and that might even be a client play for me,

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so we will. We will see Jose Perez. Good morning.

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We appreciate you guys tuning in. It's Monday morning. You're

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with us, so we really appreciate that. Like subscribe, jump

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in the comments, and let's let's have a great week

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this week. Ethan Ethan Bainbridge, He's always here. We appreciate him.

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He wants to back the Giants in this spot, but

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doesn't want to back lander. I think that's the handicap

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Brian Leonard I've had. That's exactly how I looked at

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the game. I think it's a good spot for the Giants,

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but I don't necessarily want to back lander. Tell you what,

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I don't really want to back Jove on video either.

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Didn't know he was still in the league. So what

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do you see in there? Giants Pirates.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we're looking at Lander Oviedo Verlanders. Money's come in

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a little bit on the dog in this one. We're

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looking at some sersis go about one twenty two, maybe

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eight and a half to the over last. It was

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the last time out that he pitched. Better hold on

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this second here, let me look at the game blogs

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last two starts for Verlander had been better. He played

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the Pirates last time out, and normally if you play

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a team back to back, I am looking to go opposite.

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Whatever happened the first time. First time out was the

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twenty ninth of June. Last time five innings, one in

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a run, six hits seven to one, struck out minus

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walk ratio. Before that he played the Braves. He did

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go five shutout innings and gave up one hit, but

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he did walk five and only struck out three. He

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had two starts in a row in which he won

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before that against Toronto, which he walked more than he

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actually struck out. Verlander on the season, he got his

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first win and last time out four point five three

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ERA four point eight zero expected a one point four

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to nine whip. His whip is really what's gotten to

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him in the last couple of years, one point three

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eight and one point four to nine despite having a

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one point one to three whip in his career of

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twenty seasons. He had a tremendous career, future Hall of Famer,

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but he doesn't really have any red on his stat

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cast page. It's all either middling or blue. Is ground

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ball rate in the fourteenth percent teleo means he gives

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up a lot of fly balls. He has got five

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pitches he throws for seamer mostly. He still got decent

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for seamer, but it's below league average at ninety four

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point one and he throws at forty seven percent of

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the time. That's the thing. He's got to get away

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from throwing that and be more of a pitcher and

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less of a thrower. And he's done that a little bit,

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but still he's his numbers are not that impressive. Oviedo.

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He hasn't pitched in two years. He was a mainstay

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in twenty twenty three through thirty two starts and this

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year he hasn't done anything. The last two years, hasn't

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been in the majors. His extension is great. He's six

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foot six, ninety third percentile. That's small velocity eightieth percentile.

246
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So his fastball is ninety five point eight percent or

247
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ninety five point eight mosbor hour, which is about more

248
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than a half better than the league average. But that's

249
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his two pitches he works on mostly as the slider

250
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and the forrest seimer. He also is a curve, sacred

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and change. I think he's got a chance to have

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a pretty successful day here against San Francisco, a team

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that is still struggling to find their offense. And the

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granted they their home games are in really good pitcher's park.

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This is also a pitcher's park, so I'm not sure

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they're going to find it in Pittsburgh here, but we're

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looking at Pittsburgh as the home dog. Pittsburgh's plains is

258
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pretty good baseball, but they're seven and three their last

259
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ten out. San Francisco is still not playing well. I

260
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kind of look at Pittsburgh is in this game a

261
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little bit. I guess I would trust a guy his

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first day back in three years. Obviously, he could do

263
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a lot of things differently than what he has done

264
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three years ago, so he may surprise what San Francisco

265
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expects out of him here. We'll see how that goes

266
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slightly in Pittsburgh. But I agree I I San Francisco

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I think is the better team. In fact, I'm pretty

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sure they're the better Tam. But till Ferlander puts it

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all together, I'm not going to be betting into them.

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Speaker 4: Everyone do us a huge favor and go to our

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pages and see what we have to offer. I have

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a five percent play today in MLB. You can grab

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that at my page. Brian will put something out, Adam

274
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will put something out if they haven't already, and we

275
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always almost always put free plays up as well. Take

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00:14:46,799 --> 00:14:49,679
the ten seconds and go to our pages and see

277
00:14:49,679 --> 00:14:54,320
what we have up today. Regarding this one, the Pirates,

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this is another one where you got to cover the

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logo and just go with the data here. You know,

280
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the Pirates, they're not a very good team, but they're

281
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thirty one and twenty five at home and ranking wise,

282
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I have them hitting better than the Giants, and I

283
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have their bullpen better than the Giants a lot better.

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I have them ranked eight in hitting right now, and

285
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I have the Giants ranked twenty bullpen. I have Giant

286
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the Giants ranked nineteen, while I have the Pirates ranked ten.

287
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So Pirates have every advantage here that I can see.

288
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You know, it's hard to looking at a Pirate logo,

289
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it's hard to put money on it. But if you

290
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cover the logo and just look at the numbers, Pirates

291
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are playing a lot better than the Giants are right now.

292
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And Verry Lander is one in eight. So yeah, he

293
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did get his last win. I think it was his

294
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last start where he finally picked up a win, So

295
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maybe he's turning things around. He's a grizzled vet and

296
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his wife is hot, but besides that, he doesn't have

297
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much going for him. I would say the Pirates have

298
00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:03,679
a really good shot of winning this one. I haven't

299
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bet it, but man, number of numbers wise, the Pirates

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00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:09,639
look a lot better to me.

301
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Speaker 2: So here's a tough, tough part about this one.

302
00:16:14,039 --> 00:16:16,480
Speaker 1: Is like, yeah, the well tough to tough to say

303
00:16:16,639 --> 00:16:18,960
much about the Pirates bullpen because they did trade some

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of those guys away last week.

305
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Speaker 2: So you know, I don't know if I so.

306
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,080
Speaker 3: Did so of the other playing today.

307
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Speaker 2: Yeah they did, yeh they did. I still I guess.

308
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So here's what I'll.

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Speaker 1: Be looking for from the from the Pirates, because I

310
00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,399
actually don't hate what they did. I know some Pirates

311
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fans felt like they should have gotten like a Hall

312
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,159
for David Bednar, but like, remember David Bednar was was

313
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sent back down to Triple A a few months ago, Like,

314
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so we need to slow our role and think that

315
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that they we should get a Mason Miller like return

316
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for David Bednar. That's what I saw the Pirates fans

317
00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,519
sort of like complaining about I actually thought the Pirates

318
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,919
quietly had a very productive trade deadline. The problem is

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they put these guys at Triple A, which doesn't make

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a whole lot of sense, Like why is Cam Devane

321
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at Triple A? Why, you know, maybe the guy that

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00:17:02,799 --> 00:17:05,559
they got back from the Yankees, the catcher, I could

323
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see him being at Triple A for a little while,

324
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but like you would think, like, these are guys that

325
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I think would help them at the big league level

326
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right now.

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Speaker 2: So what I'll be looking forward with this game since

328
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it's Monday.

329
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,279
Speaker 1: Monday tends to be the day where the Triple A

330
00:17:17,319 --> 00:17:19,400
doesn't play at all, so the miners are not. It's

331
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,559
like a league wide off day for minor league baseball,

332
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and you see a lot of like the roster moves

333
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:28,519
happen on Monday. It's almost like become universal. Guys are

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00:17:28,519 --> 00:17:31,759
gonna they're the front offices, like come in and then

335
00:17:31,799 --> 00:17:34,599
they'll make like three four roster moves on a Monday morning.

336
00:17:34,839 --> 00:17:36,960
So that's what I'll be looking forward the Pirates just

337
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to see if, like are we gonna bring Devaney up.

338
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They've got Nick Solak down there that I think can

339
00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,640
help them at the big league level. And then the

340
00:17:44,039 --> 00:17:46,920
catcher I think was at Flores from the Yankees organization.

341
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,119
He might I could see him down at Triple A

342
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,000
for a little while longer. So, but any of those

343
00:17:52,079 --> 00:17:55,200
moves would make me like the Pirates more. Now, Oh,

344
00:17:55,279 --> 00:17:58,680
video the interesting thing with him, he's another guy that's

345
00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,799
had a long, long rehab Tommy John surgery in twenty

346
00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,880
twenty four I think twenty four, maybe didn't pitch at

347
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:08,480
all twenty three into twenty four, so he missed over

348
00:18:08,519 --> 00:18:10,480
a year with Tommy John. And he's been working his

349
00:18:10,559 --> 00:18:13,519
way back from it this year. In July, so two

350
00:18:13,599 --> 00:18:15,720
starts at a ball, two at Double A, and then

351
00:18:15,759 --> 00:18:19,759
he had one start at Triple A last week on

352
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,720
one to eighty three batting average against zero point nine

353
00:18:22,799 --> 00:18:26,000
zero FIP and a two point one six ERA. So

354
00:18:26,039 --> 00:18:28,200
he's looked very good. And this isn't like one or

355
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,599
two starts. This is over a month because they had

356
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,480
him in the complex in June. So he's thrown at

357
00:18:33,519 --> 00:18:36,039
the complex in June, and then he threw five live

358
00:18:36,079 --> 00:18:39,359
games in July and he's looked very good. So I

359
00:18:40,039 --> 00:18:41,880
may have to admit being a little bit wrong on

360
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,519
the Giants. They seem to be going in the wrong direction.

361
00:18:44,599 --> 00:18:46,160
I know they kind of got to win yesterday, but

362
00:18:47,319 --> 00:18:49,240
it's a tough one. I don't know if I can

363
00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:50,640
get to the window with this one, but I see

364
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,559
why you guys like the Pirates a little bit. I

365
00:18:52,599 --> 00:18:55,599
guess I'll just I'm just gonna like really stay neutral

366
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,559
there and not give much out after the move though

367
00:18:58,799 --> 00:19:00,720
maybe a little value toward the Pirates. I'm seeing like

368
00:19:00,759 --> 00:19:03,640
plus one fifteen plus one twenty, Is that right, Brian?

369
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:05,880
Is that move that far at this point?

370
00:19:06,519 --> 00:19:11,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're looking right now. Bed Online's got plus one

371
00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:14,279
oh four. That's the lowe. Well, actually bet the MGM's

372
00:19:14,319 --> 00:19:17,880
down to even money. Still money coming out in Pittsburgh.

373
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:22,480
I mean, it's the best number out there staying, but uh,

374
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,599
anywhere from one fourteen on the dog.

375
00:19:26,039 --> 00:19:28,079
Speaker 1: So I think there was a little fake that just

376
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:31,680
happened right there, because there was this was like right

377
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,039
when we got on the show, San Francisco got hit.

378
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,680
I saw like plus one fifteen's out for the Pirates

379
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,200
after they were like a slight favorite this morning. So

380
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,519
I wonder if this started to then get bet back

381
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:43,680
down toward even That's that's interesting.

382
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:44,559
Speaker 2: Movement right there.

383
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:46,519
Speaker 3: A lot of times I can get a reference. So

384
00:19:46,599 --> 00:19:49,119
Nikotts trying to battle it out a little bit early

385
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:50,200
in the morning too as well.

386
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,440
Speaker 1: For sure, it's a good, good discussion. That's a that's

387
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,279
a very interesting game one. I'll certainly have my eye on.

388
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,920
City by the Bay wants to know. I know he's

389
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,359
a Giants fan, so we just talked about his team,

390
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:02,160
but he wants to know.

391
00:20:02,039 --> 00:20:04,759
Speaker 2: Have you changed your opinion on the Astros.

392
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let Brian Leonard go first and talk about

393
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:10,359
If he wants to chime in on that, he can,

394
00:20:11,079 --> 00:20:15,720
but let's talk Astros Marlins because we had some we

395
00:20:15,759 --> 00:20:18,559
had some developments over the weekend with these two teams.

396
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,960
The Astros go to Fenway Park and get swept, and

397
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,279
the Marlins, which you heard about right here about three

398
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,039
months ago that this team might be pretty good, are

399
00:20:27,079 --> 00:20:28,680
now one of the hottest teams in the league and

400
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,559
they sweep the New York Yankee. So, Brian Leonard, what's

401
00:20:31,599 --> 00:20:33,200
your opinion on the Astros and do you have a

402
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:33,960
play in this game?

403
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:34,599
Speaker 4: Yeah?

404
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 3: I think he's mostly looking for yours because you were

405
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,880
the one that's been paiding on. But it's been good

406
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:43,880
to pay on lately, they haven't played well. Science's Jason

407
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,400
Alexander on the on the Mountain today for Houston against

408
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:52,519
al Kintara Alkatar spitch a lot better lately. Miami is

409
00:20:53,839 --> 00:20:56,720
basically a one twenty five favorite. It was it was lower.

410
00:20:56,759 --> 00:20:59,720
In fact, overnight, Houston was a one to fifteen favorite,

411
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,599
And as soon as we started the show, I was

412
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:07,000
all set to use Miami here as my part of

413
00:21:07,039 --> 00:21:11,319
this parlay, but they took a lot of money now,

414
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,880
so now I'm getting a lesser number here on Miami.

415
00:21:15,279 --> 00:21:17,319
But we're looking at about a one twenty five favorite

416
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,200
now out of Miami an eight and a half. And

417
00:21:19,759 --> 00:21:22,720
you know, believe it or not, the Miami Marlins are

418
00:21:22,759 --> 00:21:25,359
a five hundred ball club. They've fought their way all

419
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,599
the way back, and this is a team right now

420
00:21:28,759 --> 00:21:32,079
that got a lot of confidence. They swept the Yankees,

421
00:21:32,559 --> 00:21:35,160
which is something you know, I know, we get a

422
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,480
lot of people either love or hate the Yankees. We've

423
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,240
said a lot this year that the Yankees are getting

424
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,799
swept and you don't usually say that this is not

425
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,599
the same team. And obviously they don't have their best

426
00:21:46,599 --> 00:21:50,400
player right now. But one minute the Yankees. They're a

427
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,640
team playing good ball. Next minute they're not. And here

428
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:57,359
they are, and they're not again. Jason Alexander's two seasons

429
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,240
in the majors, let's just go with that. Twenty six games,

430
00:22:01,319 --> 00:22:05,559
fourteen starts, five point nine to two ERA, and his

431
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,359
expected array is about five point twenty five overall, one

432
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:14,759
point sixty seven whip nothing really strong on his uh

433
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,640
stat cast page, fastball velocity in the twelve percent el

434
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,359
so he doesn't have much of a fastball. In fact,

435
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,599
he knows that, which is why only throws a ten

436
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,279
percent of the time. Good for him, it's at ninety

437
00:22:27,279 --> 00:22:30,640
two point four. He's got the sinker change, sweeper forcing,

438
00:22:30,839 --> 00:22:36,599
and the cutter. Basically he's a sinker change guy. And

439
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,240
thirty two percent not somebody I'm usually going out there

440
00:22:40,279 --> 00:22:44,119
trying to bet into. And we'll see how long he

441
00:22:44,279 --> 00:22:49,359
goes in this game. Sandy Alcaterra, they take a look

442
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:53,359
at his game logs as of late, he would go

443
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,359
his last two times out. He played the Cardinals five

444
00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:04,519
innings nowhere runs three hits. He played the Royals, excuse

445
00:23:04,519 --> 00:23:07,480
me off the Royals the Padres seven innings to shut

446
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,839
out Baseball four hits no walks, so he's starting to

447
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,599
turn it around. You could tell a lot by the walks,

448
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,920
and because we talked about that before the season started.

449
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,759
Coming back from major surgery or Timmy Johns that kind

450
00:23:22,799 --> 00:23:25,480
of thing. The control is the last thing you get.

451
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,960
In fact, if you look at what he had done

452
00:23:28,759 --> 00:23:35,200
originally four walks zero four two two five that was

453
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:40,279
his beginnings. Now he's for walks three zero two two

454
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,920
one zero. So he's been much better control as of late,

455
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:48,720
and that is really helping him. Sandiel Cara in the

456
00:23:48,759 --> 00:23:52,680
season six point three six. The ra obviously poor, but

457
00:23:53,319 --> 00:23:57,400
his expected era is five point oh three one point

458
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,000
four to two whip, but that was mostly from early

459
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,759
in the season. Fastball velocity, that's he's very good fastball

460
00:24:03,839 --> 00:24:07,119
ninety four percentile. He only throws as four steamer twenty

461
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,000
two percent of the time, so he's got a very

462
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,680
good fasketball when he needs it. His sinker change and

463
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,119
a four steamer and slider and his curve he uses

464
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,799
all of them from sixteen to twenty four percent. I

465
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,839
love that this is a guy I'm looking to play on.

466
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,839
I like Miami here. I'm hoping we can get a

467
00:24:23,839 --> 00:24:26,039
little bit of a buyback here on Houston, but I

468
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,319
still might end up using Miami. That's my leader right

469
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:33,119
now for the parlay. I like him, but I would

470
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,200
have preferred the one to fifteen or whatever that was

471
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:36,240
there a little bit earlier.

472
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 4: Guys, do it's a huge favor. Go to the replay

473
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,359
of this and leave a comment and the like, and

474
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:47,039
let WAA talk know that you like our show. Because

475
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,759
maybe they think baseball is inferior to football, but we

476
00:24:50,839 --> 00:24:53,799
certainly don't. So let them know you like our show

477
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:58,839
and the baseball rules. So here we go, Astros versus Miami.

478
00:25:00,599 --> 00:25:03,240
This is one where just straight up numbers are not

479
00:25:03,319 --> 00:25:05,799
going to tell you the exact story. Because the straight

480
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,519
up numbers, I have the Astros ranked higher than Miami

481
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,200
at everything, but just a little bit higher. I actually

482
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:17,240
have Jason Alexander ranked a little bit higher than Sandy Alcantara,

483
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:21,599
which I don't actually think he's a better picture. But

484
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:28,720
his prediction numbers, or his predictors, I guess we should

485
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,279
say his expected numbers, that's the word I was looking for,

486
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:36,079
are really good actually, even though his actual stats are bad.

487
00:25:36,599 --> 00:25:40,200
He's got a seven plus ERA and really bad. But

488
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,920
al Candera has a six plus RA. Neither one of

489
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,319
these pictures have great numbers, but Jason Alexander does have

490
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:52,559
the better expected numbers. Both bullpens pretty good and pretty equal,

491
00:25:53,279 --> 00:25:57,039
and Houston's actually hitting a little bit better than Miami

492
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,920
right now. So those are the numbers side now the

493
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,559
eye test. Miami is just on a roll. Not only

494
00:26:04,559 --> 00:26:06,440
did they sweep the Yankees, but they won two in

495
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,440
a row against the Cardinals. Right before that, They've won

496
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,039
five in a row, maybe more than five in a row.

497
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:15,440
They're just on a roll right now, feeling good about themselves.

498
00:26:15,519 --> 00:26:17,799
I don't know if they're thinking about making the playoffs

499
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:22,119
or not, but you know, these guys aren't thinking that

500
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,240
deep when they're out there. They're thinking about hitting a

501
00:26:24,319 --> 00:26:26,680
ninety mile an hour fastball. They're not thinking if they're

502
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,960
going to the playoffs or not. They're playing for contracts.

503
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,480
They're playing four next year, some of these guys. And

504
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,839
you know, I think I would agree with Brian Miami.

505
00:26:38,079 --> 00:26:40,359
I think would have the advantage, even though all of

506
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,039
my numbers point the other way. So because of all

507
00:26:43,079 --> 00:26:46,640
these contradicting factors, I'm not going to play the game.

508
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 1: So I'll go back to the original question and address

509
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,720
that first, Have you changed your opinion on the Astros

510
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:57,480
trig No, I still think they're I still think they

511
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,400
finished third in this division, and I'll I'll tell you

512
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,599
what like, so, I think the question is being phrased

513
00:27:03,599 --> 00:27:06,079
because they made a lot of moves at the trade deadline.

514
00:27:06,559 --> 00:27:09,920
I tend to not like these teams that go out

515
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,480
and sort of like remake their team at the deadline,

516
00:27:12,559 --> 00:27:15,400
Like I much prefer a team that goes out and

517
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,680
gets like the maybe the one or two guys that

518
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,839
that really fit that that are like the needs, whereas

519
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,720
like the Astros felt like they just went out and

520
00:27:24,759 --> 00:27:29,319
got a new lineup, right, like just who is available? Okay,

521
00:27:29,559 --> 00:27:33,319
Korea bringing back great Sanchez for Miami Great, Like we've

522
00:27:33,319 --> 00:27:34,200
got Jeremy.

523
00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:34,599
Speaker 2: Paynea coming back.

524
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,799
Speaker 1: Suddenly you've got a very you know, it's like a

525
00:27:36,799 --> 00:27:39,240
different lineup than they've had the last couple of months

526
00:27:39,559 --> 00:27:42,920
and like this, But this is still like a team

527
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,160
that I look at and say, they've really overachieved this point,

528
00:27:46,559 --> 00:27:48,160
and I just don't think they're better than some of

529
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,960
the other top options in the American League.

530
00:27:51,319 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 2: So no, I don't. My opinion hasn't changed on them.

531
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 1: Now I played him yesterday, which I'm upset with myself

532
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,440
for doing so. I really just want to go against

533
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,000
Giulito in that spot. But no, my opinion has not

534
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,440
changed about the Astros at all. They are still long

535
00:28:06,519 --> 00:28:09,319
term a fade for me. Now. Stephen Fallon says, who

536
00:28:09,319 --> 00:28:11,799
would have thought the Marlins a five hundred team? Well me,

537
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,039
because I've been talking about them for three months that

538
00:28:15,079 --> 00:28:18,079
they're like way better than their their record, And to

539
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,920
go back to Tokyo Brandon's point, they don't know any better.

540
00:28:21,039 --> 00:28:24,640
These are kids, like they don't know what what like playoffs,

541
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,799
they don't These are our young kids for the most

542
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,440
part that are either in their first or second year.

543
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 2: It's like their first taste of big league baseball.

544
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 1: So in my opinion, they're very, very dangerous in terms

545
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,440
of like they're there's zero expectations with them, No one's

546
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:40,640
expecting anything from them.

547
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,319
Speaker 2: And you know you've got guys like Kyle Stowers.

548
00:28:44,839 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: I'm just going off the top of my head, like

549
00:28:46,279 --> 00:28:51,759
Pauli's been grand Pauli was recently called up. Edwards was

550
00:28:51,759 --> 00:28:53,599
called up toward the end of last year. Right, These

551
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,839
these are guys in like their first or maybe second

552
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:59,519
big league season in a lot of cases, Augustin Ramirez

553
00:28:59,759 --> 00:29:01,559
for full season at the big league level.

554
00:29:02,119 --> 00:29:04,519
Speaker 2: They just don't know any better. They're out just playing ball.

555
00:29:04,559 --> 00:29:05,359
They're having fun.

556
00:29:05,799 --> 00:29:08,319
Speaker 1: They clearly are having like a good time. If you

557
00:29:08,359 --> 00:29:10,680
watch Marlins games, like there's there seems to be a

558
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,839
great vibe in that clubhouse. I think it goes a

559
00:29:13,839 --> 00:29:16,039
lot from like what they're doing at the lower levels

560
00:29:16,079 --> 00:29:20,640
in their organization and they Brian Brian Leonard brought this

561
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:26,000
up in April. They really like overhauled their organizational, like

562
00:29:26,119 --> 00:29:29,440
a lot of the coaching staff, and they're developing pitchers.

563
00:29:29,599 --> 00:29:32,119
And what it seems like they've done is develop a

564
00:29:32,119 --> 00:29:34,400
bunch of guys that can go out and throw three innings.

565
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,920
Like they don't have a great rotation, and alcon Terra

566
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,480
hasn't been great this year either, but from Triple from

567
00:29:41,519 --> 00:29:43,440
from the majors to Triple A, they have a bunch

568
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:44,880
of guys that can go out and throw two or

569
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,480
three innings. It's why that over the last forty five

570
00:29:47,559 --> 00:29:49,880
to sixty days they've had one of the top five

571
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,720
bullpens in baseball. And and so this is a team

572
00:29:52,759 --> 00:29:55,079
that I have zero interest in betting against I could

573
00:29:55,079 --> 00:29:57,640
only bet the Marlins here, and that'll likely be the

574
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,720
case for me until they go the other way, as

575
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,920
we have seen young teams do. At some point, they're

576
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:04,640
gonna go the other way, probably lose a few in

577
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,160
a row and maybe play themselves out of this race.

578
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,559
But for right now, you just got to ride the wave.

579
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:15,839
Marlins are passed for me here, Okay, Tom, Tom Roper,

580
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:20,160
new member. Appreciate that. Kelly and Vegas told me we

581
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,039
got to get those subscriptions. You know, we have the city.

582
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,319
It's great that the same people are watching the show

583
00:30:26,359 --> 00:30:28,559
every time, but we need those subscriptions. So if you're

584
00:30:28,559 --> 00:30:33,039
not subscribed, do me a favor so Kelly's not breathing

585
00:30:33,119 --> 00:30:36,039
down my neck, and subscribe to the channel if you

586
00:30:36,079 --> 00:30:40,359
haven't done so already, because apparently we need those subscriptions

587
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,759
to keep this thing going. And we appreciate Tom. I

588
00:30:43,799 --> 00:30:46,440
believe it's free. You just have to hit subscribe on

589
00:30:46,559 --> 00:30:50,200
the YouTube channel. Very much appreciated, or wherever you're watching.

590
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:51,839
I think there's like a new platform.

591
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:52,279
Speaker 2: I don't know.

592
00:30:52,359 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: I'm not up on like the technology stuff. I just

593
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,039
come in here and talk about baseball for an hour

594
00:30:59,319 --> 00:31:01,119
and then go whow baseball the rest of the day

595
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:02,759
and then come back and do it again the next day.

596
00:31:02,799 --> 00:31:08,000
So Jose Prez is what platform is that, Jose dropping

597
00:31:08,079 --> 00:31:09,960
the chat what you're watching on? I think that's like

598
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:11,519
one of the new ones. They don't know what logo

599
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:15,119
that is. But anyway, we appreciate having Jose here every day.

600
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,200
He wants to point out, Yeah, the Red Sox are rolling.

601
00:31:18,359 --> 00:31:20,400
That was impressive this weekend. I got burned.

602
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 2: I thought I had this.

603
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 1: Great spot with bramber Valdez yesterday Brian Leonard. I ended

604
00:31:24,759 --> 00:31:27,599
up getting a good number on the Astros and the

605
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:31,000
Red Sox just pour it up as they have been

606
00:31:31,039 --> 00:31:34,359
all weekend. Now they come in, they're still home, they're

607
00:31:34,359 --> 00:31:37,759
still at Fenway Park. Do the vibes carry on into

608
00:31:37,759 --> 00:31:38,839
this series with the Royals?

609
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 2: What do you think?

610
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,519
Speaker 3: Well, wet Bailey Fulter coming over his first start in

611
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,559
Kansas City. I do like what Kansas City did with

612
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,000
the trade deadline. They're playing some pretty good ball right now.

613
00:31:49,039 --> 00:31:53,039
He's a lefty going against Bryan Bao. Bao at home

614
00:31:53,319 --> 00:31:55,640
is about a one fifty five favorite just about everywhere

615
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,440
up to one sixty, but one fifty five for the

616
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,720
most part a total of nine to the over or

617
00:32:01,839 --> 00:32:04,960
nine and a half to the under, so we're getting

618
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:09,359
I For the most part, I like pitchers who are

619
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:13,079
taken from a team that is not going to the

620
00:32:13,119 --> 00:32:15,440
playoffs to a team that is at least in the

621
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,920
playoff race, and that's Kansas City. Now that they're a

622
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,480
five hundred ball club, and I think it tells the

623
00:32:21,519 --> 00:32:24,119
pitcher that you were wanted and you can get out

624
00:32:24,119 --> 00:32:28,359
of a situation where your team was not playing well. Now,

625
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:32,200
that's the good thing about Bailey Falter. His extension is

626
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:36,759
ninety six percentile, which is excellent, but everything else is

627
00:32:36,799 --> 00:32:40,079
in the blue, which is bad. Chase right fifth percentile

628
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,319
with right fourth strike out right fifth, throws five pitches

629
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,720
as fourth semer the most. In fact, he throws a

630
00:32:46,759 --> 00:32:48,440
forty five percent of the time, and it's not very

631
00:32:48,519 --> 00:32:52,480
good ninety two point two. That's a concern. I'm hopefully

632
00:32:52,519 --> 00:32:56,480
hopefully coming over to Kansas City, they will make some

633
00:32:56,599 --> 00:32:59,319
changes in that and he'll throw his fourth seamer a

634
00:32:59,359 --> 00:33:02,839
little bit less and that would help him out here.

635
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,400
But he's got he's got some lousy numbers. Overall, his

636
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:08,920
ra is three point seventy three, but is expected as

637
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,920
four point five to five one point one eight whip.

638
00:33:12,079 --> 00:33:14,640
That's a pretty good whip for him this season, so

639
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,799
he's doing some things right. Hopefully Ken said he can

640
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,240
get the best out of it. Brian Bao comes in

641
00:33:21,279 --> 00:33:24,480
three point one ninety ray four point four to six expected.

642
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,000
Pretty lucky so far this year one point two eight whip.

643
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,359
Round ball rate eighty fifth percentile, and he's only six

644
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:34,279
foot one, so that's really good for him. Average exs

645
00:33:34,319 --> 00:33:38,279
velocity seventy third percentile, hard hit rates seventy fifth. He's

646
00:33:38,279 --> 00:33:41,000
not going to blow you away with the strikeouts nineteenth percentile,

647
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,599
with rate fourteenth. Does throw six pitches if he counts

648
00:33:44,599 --> 00:33:47,599
the slider, which is only one percent, So basically five

649
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,960
pitches from ten to thirty six percent is four seemers

650
00:33:51,039 --> 00:33:54,759
league average. He throws a seventeen percent like that. Most

651
00:33:54,839 --> 00:33:58,200
these Boston pitchers are getting away from throwing the fastball,

652
00:33:58,559 --> 00:34:00,480
and I think that's why they had so so much

653
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:04,640
success in that regard. So the line on this, as

654
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,640
I mentioned about it, one fifty five for Boston here,

655
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,800
I like the way Kansas City's plan. I would prefer

656
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,960
Kansas City, but I don't want to bet on Falter

657
00:34:16,199 --> 00:34:19,519
on the road here until I see that he's changing

658
00:34:19,599 --> 00:34:22,679
up what he throws. If I see this game he

659
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,760
gets away from throwing the fastball a little bit more,

660
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,480
they'll give us some value on the future for him.

661
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:29,800
But as of right now, I'll probably be passing on this.

662
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:37,039
Speaker 4: So I've never been fan. But this Seri's playing pretty well.

663
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,480
He's odd because his away stats are a little bit

664
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,840
better than his home stats. But I'd like to vack

665
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,559
him here. But when I dig a little deeper, I

666
00:34:47,599 --> 00:34:52,280
mean I've got him ranked higher than Falter by quite

667
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:56,320
a bit. Actually, I've got Brian Bayo like a top

668
00:34:57,199 --> 00:35:02,760
a top one third. Hang on a second, I've got

669
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:06,000
Bao like a top one third pitcher in the league,

670
00:35:06,039 --> 00:35:08,679
where I've got Falter a bottom one third pitcher in

671
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:13,960
the league. I like Boston's bullpen a little bit better,

672
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:17,239
just a little bit. Neither neither bullpen is very is

673
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,920
very good right now, but both lineups are hitting quite well,

674
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,440
and neither pitcher really walks too many guys. They're both

675
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:31,599
in the acceptable range. I don't know. I like Boston's

676
00:35:31,599 --> 00:35:34,880
team total over perhaps here. I like to look at

677
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,400
home and away stats here, But you know, Falter is

678
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,639
a guy who just got traded, so you know, even

679
00:35:40,679 --> 00:35:43,960
his home stadium is technically away because he never pitches there.

680
00:35:44,079 --> 00:35:50,320
So yeah, I would lean towards Boston either that or

681
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,239
Boston's team total. But you know, when I dig deeper,

682
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:59,639
Beo's stats against these batters not very good. Yeah, everything's

683
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:03,039
kind of red locked and contradicting. So I'll probably staff

684
00:36:03,079 --> 00:36:03,559
this game.

685
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't imagine I end up with a play here.

686
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,400
I think someone asked about the total.

687
00:36:10,159 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 2: In the chat.

688
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: I kind of made it right on that number of

689
00:36:13,079 --> 00:36:15,880
nine and a half, so I don't really see much

690
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,760
value there either way. I think my you know, like

691
00:36:20,159 --> 00:36:22,679
I guess human nature for me would be to want

692
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,880
to fade the Red Sox because I played against them

693
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:26,679
yesterday and I had my reasons to do so, but

694
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:28,719
a lot of that was based on the fact that

695
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,840
the Red Sox had some bullpen usage going into yesterday

696
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,320
and also Lucas shi Alito, and neither of those things

697
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,480
are affecting this game. Because they were able to win

698
00:36:37,599 --> 00:36:40,639
yesterday without burning their top bullpen arms, obviously, it's a

699
00:36:40,639 --> 00:36:44,599
different starter. So so I can't really go that route either.

700
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,480
I do think this could be a competitive game. So

701
00:36:48,519 --> 00:36:51,519
again that would lead me to think, okay, underdog, maybe

702
00:36:51,519 --> 00:36:53,320
take some plus money, maybe look at the plus one

703
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:53,639
and a half.

704
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:56,559
Speaker 2: But I really do think it's priced correctly.

705
00:36:56,639 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 1: So this is just one that I don't have a

706
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,920
ton to offer, but we got to go to the chat.

707
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:05,079
Jabbroni says important question, cats or dogs. I know Adam

708
00:37:05,159 --> 00:37:09,119
is a cat A cat guy, completely wrong. I have

709
00:37:09,159 --> 00:37:13,079
two dogs. My fiance is on the board of a

710
00:37:13,199 --> 00:37:15,440
dog rescue place here in central New York.

711
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 2: So we've got two.

712
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 1: We've got two pities like pit bulls, and if it

713
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:22,639
was up to her, we'd have ten. But I told

714
00:37:22,679 --> 00:37:25,400
her we can't too. We just got this guy back

715
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,199
in November. So there is my you can see him

716
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,159
right there. He's on my couch or he's not supposed

717
00:37:31,159 --> 00:37:36,039
to be, but dog person and that is very much

718
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,519
Mallory's doing. Like I said, if it was up to her,

719
00:37:38,559 --> 00:37:40,000
we'd have we'd.

720
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 2: Take them all home. So anyway, I want to answer

721
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:43,920
that question.

722
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:48,559
Speaker 1: Not much to offer the Royals Royal's Red Sox handicap,

723
00:37:48,639 --> 00:37:52,079
but I wanted to let you know that slick Vic

724
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,800
my guy, if you can still get plus four seventy

725
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:58,679
on the Yankees to miss the playoffs after this weekend,

726
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,599
you got to take that right now? Is can we

727
00:38:01,639 --> 00:38:04,280
get the chat going here? Can you guys look like,

728
00:38:04,519 --> 00:38:06,840
what is that right now? Because it did get as

729
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,400
high as plus six hundred last week, which I could

730
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,800
not believe. I think I got five to one someone

731
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,039
on the show. Guys in the chat were saying they

732
00:38:15,039 --> 00:38:17,599
got plus five fifty when we talked about Yankees Tom

733
00:38:17,599 --> 00:38:20,440
missed the playoffs last week. If you can still get

734
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,159
plus four seventy on that and you haven't bet it yet.

735
00:38:23,119 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 5: Take that right now, take that right now. They just

736
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,400
got swept by the They just got swept by the Marlins.

737
00:38:28,599 --> 00:38:31,360
There should be a much bigger price correction there, in

738
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:35,440
my opinion, after getting slapped around all weekend by a

739
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,559
five hundred team from the National League. Now the Yankees

740
00:38:38,599 --> 00:38:40,079
have a chance to redeem themselves.

741
00:38:40,079 --> 00:38:42,159
Speaker 1: But Brian Leonard, I'm not quite sure that they're going

742
00:38:42,199 --> 00:38:43,960
to Mark Kinsen wants.

743
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,199
Speaker 2: To know, Yankees Rangers, how are you seeing that?

744
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 1: And do you think that plus four seventy is still

745
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:49,920
a crazy price on that?

746
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 2: Bet?

747
00:38:52,599 --> 00:38:54,760
Speaker 3: Well there right now they've fallen to third of the

748
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:59,519
division and Seattle is coming up there on Houston. They're

749
00:38:59,559 --> 00:39:07,280
only got zero zero five win percentage better than Seattle

750
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:11,800
right now. So yes, I am a little bit concerned

751
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,280
for the Mets, or excuse me, for the Yankees making

752
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:19,119
the playoffs, but I like the most they made over

753
00:39:19,159 --> 00:39:21,079
the All Star breaks. So I'm gonna set it out

754
00:39:21,159 --> 00:39:25,519
right now. We're talking the Yankees in Texas. A couple

755
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:29,960
of lefties, Freed and Corbon. Freed the road favorite. Basically,

756
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,360
I wont forty favorite looks like seven and a half

757
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,880
slightly to the over. This is a really good pitchers

758
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:40,239
park this season. It helps the Texas has got some

759
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:45,840
of the best starting pitching in Major League Baseball. Yankees

760
00:39:47,039 --> 00:39:50,719
Max Freed. He's had some blister problems lately, but he

761
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,599
seems to be able to make a start today. Two

762
00:39:53,679 --> 00:39:55,960
point six to two ERA on the season, three point

763
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:59,679
three eight expected, one point three whip, very good numbers

764
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,639
as you would expect. He's not getting much of a

765
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,760
chase rate thirty third percentile stench is nothing great considering

766
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:10,320
him being six foot four, but his walk rate has

767
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,119
been very good five point nine percent this year. Last

768
00:40:13,159 --> 00:40:15,119
year was an off year four and from the walks,

769
00:40:15,159 --> 00:40:18,000
but as of right now. He's got a seventeen point

770
00:40:18,039 --> 00:40:22,440
two stricout minus walk ratio, which is not great, but

771
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:27,960
it's up there where we look for it. Like Max

772
00:40:28,039 --> 00:40:30,719
Freed throws a lot of pitches. He's got seven different

773
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:35,639
pitches he throws and his and his. He throws a

774
00:40:35,639 --> 00:40:38,280
lot of off speed pitches, which I really like. So

775
00:40:38,559 --> 00:40:40,679
he's a he's a guy I like going up against

776
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:45,159
this Texas team who's loss of problems offensively this year. Obviously,

777
00:40:45,199 --> 00:40:47,320
as I mentioned, they playing more of a pitcher spark

778
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,800
this season than in the past seasons and that has

779
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,679
an effect on him. But Patrick Corbyn three point seven

780
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,880
eighty IRA four point one seven whip or excuse me,

781
00:40:55,960 --> 00:41:00,440
you are expected one point two to seven whip fastball

782
00:41:00,519 --> 00:41:04,320
velocities only in the twelfth percentile, and he only throws

783
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,239
his four seamer three percent of the time. That's why

784
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:10,719
he's having a lot more success here. He knows he's

785
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,280
getting older and he doesn't blow people away with that.

786
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,360
He's smart enough to keep it away. Slider, sink or

787
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,519
cutter basically is what you get out of him, and

788
00:41:19,599 --> 00:41:23,840
I think he can have some success doing so. When

789
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:25,920
it took take a look at the line here. As

790
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:31,800
I mentioned the way the Yankees are playing, I don't

791
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:33,800
know if I want him here in this price range.

792
00:41:34,159 --> 00:41:36,599
I would prefer Texas obviously. I Freed's a better pitcher

793
00:41:36,639 --> 00:41:40,880
than Corbin. You got to give him that. The bullpen

794
00:41:41,119 --> 00:41:45,199
for the Yankees eventually, once everybody finds their spot, will

795
00:41:45,199 --> 00:41:47,039
work out very well. And I think they'll be better

796
00:41:47,559 --> 00:41:49,840
come playoff time if they get there. But right now,

797
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,400
slight lean with the home dog, but likely not going

798
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:54,519
to be involved in this one.

799
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 4: So, guys, I have a five percent play up today.

800
00:41:59,079 --> 00:42:01,639
I'm sure and Brian are going to put plays out.

801
00:42:01,679 --> 00:42:03,960
I have a free play up too. I'm sure both

802
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:06,239
of my guys here are going to have free plays up.

803
00:42:06,519 --> 00:42:08,920
Go visit our page and check out what we got.

804
00:42:09,039 --> 00:42:11,960
Takes a couple of seconds, Hit the like and subscribe

805
00:42:12,159 --> 00:42:17,840
as well. Yankees are just a mediocre team. And if

806
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,840
you took the uniforms off of this same roster and

807
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,719
put Kansas City Royal uniforms on this team, would you

808
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:28,719
be talking about them this much? Absolutely not Max Freed.

809
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:35,679
Is there one really good player minus Aaron Judge. This

810
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,360
team's just mediocre. I mean they're not good. I mean

811
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:39,719
they have a bad rotation.

812
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:41,199
Speaker 2: Max.

813
00:42:41,519 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 4: Besides Max Freed, are there any pitchers that you would

814
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:46,719
that you would have to have on your team. No,

815
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,760
Their bullpen is mediocre, they're hitting his mediocre. They do

816
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:56,159
have the best pure hitter in all of Major League Baseball.

817
00:42:56,159 --> 00:42:58,360
But he's injured right now. I heard he's coming back

818
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:02,320
on Tuesday. Not sure if that's true or not. But

819
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:06,159
this team put a different uniform on him and they suck. Sorry,

820
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:10,920
but today I have the Rangers and the Yankees basically

821
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,800
even at almost everything. I mean, I have a line

822
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:17,679
of statistics lined up here, and there's tons of variation,

823
00:43:18,079 --> 00:43:21,920
and these teams are less than one point apart in everything.

824
00:43:22,199 --> 00:43:26,559
That's how close these two teams are. Max Freed is

825
00:43:26,599 --> 00:43:29,519
a really good picture, and he's got great numbers against

826
00:43:29,519 --> 00:43:33,039
these batters that he's facing today in his history. He's

827
00:43:33,079 --> 00:43:38,760
a good home pitcher as well. The thing is, oh,

828
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:41,840
I'm sorry, he's a decent road pitcher as well. But

829
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:45,800
the thing is, what does that mean? I mean, even

830
00:43:46,079 --> 00:43:48,960
though he's that good, I still have these teams less

831
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:53,360
than one point apart, which is crazy. Patrick Corbyn's got

832
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,840
that stigma of being a terrible picture and coming into

833
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,519
the season. Everyone except at him probably thought he was

834
00:43:59,519 --> 00:44:01,840
gonna have a two terrible season. I know I did.

835
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:08,760
But he's a very solid innings eater. He's on a

836
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:12,960
curve of thirty. I have him ranked fourteen, so above average.

837
00:44:13,039 --> 00:44:16,079
I got Freed ranked twelve, so he's only two points

838
00:44:16,119 --> 00:44:21,480
lower than Nax Freed. That's crazy. So yeah, I think

839
00:44:21,519 --> 00:44:23,519
the Yankees will win the game. But there's no way

840
00:44:23,559 --> 00:44:26,960
I would put minus one fifty on them after trashing

841
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,719
the Yankees. Now I'm going to say I would take them.

842
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:33,440
So after I trash them, watch them just win the division.

843
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:35,639
Now that'd be funny. Anyways, I'm not going to play

844
00:44:35,639 --> 00:44:36,920
the Yankees, but they'll probably win.

845
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 2: I'm now figuring out.

846
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 1: I'm now seeing what happened in regards to the Yankees

847
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,800
to make the playoffs pricing. When we talked about them

848
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,159
last week, and I said it was a great bet.

849
00:44:49,199 --> 00:44:51,800
It was pre all the moves they made at the

850
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:56,239
trade deadline. So the Bucks actually liked the deadline they had.

851
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,000
They thought they improved their team because I think the

852
00:44:59,039 --> 00:45:03,440
market price up to that five fifties almost seven to

853
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:06,519
one range to miss the playoffs after their trade deadlinean

854
00:45:06,559 --> 00:45:08,599
what did the Yankees do. They turned around and got

855
00:45:08,639 --> 00:45:12,119
slapped by the by the Marlins all weekend, and so

856
00:45:12,199 --> 00:45:15,039
that's why it's starting to trend down. So actually, I

857
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:17,800
now I see like some people in the comments, like

858
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,239
we have one right here said he grabbed five ninety

859
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,239
yesterday and someone else said they had six fifty, you know,

860
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:25,480
on Friday over the weekend.

861
00:45:25,519 --> 00:45:26,320
Speaker 2: So that's what happened.

862
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,119
Speaker 1: In regards to that, I will I will double down

863
00:45:29,199 --> 00:45:31,119
right here because I think this is the best bet

864
00:45:31,119 --> 00:45:33,519
I can give regarding these two teams right now. I

865
00:45:33,519 --> 00:45:36,679
would bet that now even at plus five fifty plus

866
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,599
five to one, I think there is a great chance

867
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,639
the Yankees missed the playoffs, a lot of which you

868
00:45:42,679 --> 00:45:44,719
know was talked about by the other two guys here.

869
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:47,719
And as far as this game's concerned, I think the

870
00:45:48,159 --> 00:45:50,760
numbers about right. I would have loved to have a

871
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,559
scenario where the books miss priced this to the point

872
00:45:53,559 --> 00:45:55,239
where I could have got Rangers plus one and a

873
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:57,280
half at a good number. Not going to get that

874
00:45:57,400 --> 00:45:59,960
at this point, so I think the price is about right.

875
00:46:00,159 --> 00:46:03,119
But listen, the Rangers were a little bit unlucky this weekend.

876
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:05,800
I thought they played pretty good ball, and they ended

877
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:09,239
up dropping two of I'm sorry, dropping three of four

878
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:13,320
to the Mariners in what really was like a pretty

879
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:17,199
competitive series. You know, they lose three to four on Friday.

880
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,719
They lose five to four yesterday with a couple of

881
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,280
plays that just went against them. In the ninth inning,

882
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,880
I think Boji lost a challenge on one play and

883
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:28,360
then the Mariners maybe want to challenge on a different

884
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,280
play end up losing five to four. So you know

885
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,719
that the weekend could have gone very different from them

886
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:36,039
for them if the ball bounced their way. And yet

887
00:46:36,039 --> 00:46:38,559
here they are still in a huge game at home.

888
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,000
I think they're like two back of the Yankees right now.

889
00:46:41,159 --> 00:46:44,679
Corvin's had a very solid season. He's a veteran, keeps

890
00:46:44,679 --> 00:46:46,679
his team in the game, and he's just one of

891
00:46:46,679 --> 00:46:48,960
those lefties that you know, I think could could potentially

892
00:46:49,039 --> 00:46:51,719
keep the Yankees off balance. The one thing I like

893
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:53,760
about the Rangers that I think really is going to

894
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:56,760
start to matter. They have all of these solid depth

895
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,199
arms in their bullpen, so they don't need to push

896
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:00,960
a guy like Corbyn into the sixth inning if they

897
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,920
don't want to. Because even though they lacked the big

898
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:07,000
time closer, they didn't go out and get the Johan Duran.

899
00:47:07,079 --> 00:47:08,639
Speaker 2: They don't have that guy on the roster.

900
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 1: They've got a lot of guys that can can come

901
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,559
in in the fifth and the sixth and throw an

902
00:47:13,599 --> 00:47:16,000
inning or two shut it down. And I think the

903
00:47:16,079 --> 00:47:18,440
Rangers are gonna be in a lot of games because

904
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:21,360
of that, So slightly into the Rangers here for me,

905
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:24,719
probably won't bet it, but uh again, I'll keep I'll

906
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:26,920
keep saying it. I think Rangers and the Mariners are

907
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,079
finishing one to two in the West. I think the

908
00:47:29,119 --> 00:47:31,760
Astros will be third, So I'm still high on them

909
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,800
and I would still look to play play them here

910
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:40,280
if anything. All right, we were rolling along, I've already

911
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,039
locked I kicked the show off, locked the parlay leg

912
00:47:43,159 --> 00:47:43,880
in the first game.

913
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 2: We still have two more to lock in.

914
00:47:46,039 --> 00:47:47,599
Speaker 1: Do either of you guys want to throw out a

915
00:47:47,639 --> 00:47:51,960
game that we haven't talked about yet, or or do

916
00:47:52,039 --> 00:47:53,920
you know, like Brian, are you sitting there, like, do

917
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:55,239
I do it with the Marlins?

918
00:47:55,639 --> 00:47:57,199
Speaker 2: Where's your head at right there?

919
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:00,760
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think it's gonna end up being here with

920
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:05,360
the Marlins. You're getting in at about one twenty five.

921
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:11,039
We'll go on twenty five here fading Houston. I'll play

922
00:48:11,079 --> 00:48:15,559
that Miami minus one twenty five. And one of the

923
00:48:15,559 --> 00:48:20,400
reasons I still like it, there's a lot of people

924
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:22,960
in the chat saying we're fools for playing Miami is

925
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:27,920
the favorite. So usually when everybody disagrees with me, that's

926
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:30,480
a pretty good bet. So I'll play Miami here minus

927
00:48:30,519 --> 00:48:32,320
the want twenty five. And yes I am the foal

928
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:33,320
that is playing Miami.

929
00:48:34,679 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 1: I very much agree with you, and we'll let TV

930
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:39,960
close the show with his We still have ten minutes left,

931
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:41,760
so I want to go to this game first. Because

932
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:44,280
there's like three people that have asked about this. Colin

933
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:47,159
Gregory says, Guardians met. Who better to talk about the

934
00:48:47,159 --> 00:48:52,239
Guardians than Brian Leonard. The Guardians are, they're hanging around.

935
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:54,559
There are only a few games back about last wild

936
00:48:54,559 --> 00:48:57,000
Card Spot. How are you feeling about them going into

937
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:57,719
this series?

938
00:48:58,119 --> 00:49:00,400
Speaker 3: Before I get to the breakdown of the game, And yes,

939
00:49:00,519 --> 00:49:02,480
I have not put my plays up. I usually don't

940
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:04,599
put him up ahead of time, but there is a

941
00:49:04,639 --> 00:49:06,400
game I love. It's either going to be a four

942
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:10,199
or five. I'm still working on that in my head.

943
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:13,639
But in the next hour I will have a strong,

944
00:49:13,679 --> 00:49:19,719
really strong play in major League Baseball. Yes, Chaconi against Manea,

945
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:24,519
Cleveland at the Mets. We're looking at right now about

946
00:49:24,559 --> 00:49:27,400
a one to eighty favorite four of the Mets, eight

947
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,239
and a half to the under, eight to the over

948
00:49:31,119 --> 00:49:38,880
between these two clubs. Cleveland Checkoni's he looks. He seems

949
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:41,760
to look better when I see him when I watch

950
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:45,079
the games, and I watch just about every Cleveland game.

951
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:49,199
He looks better on TV than his results are showing.

952
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:52,000
He does have that three point seven seven the RA,

953
00:49:52,159 --> 00:49:54,760
but his expected the RAY is four point ninety nine.

954
00:49:56,039 --> 00:49:59,079
Not much of a strikeout pitcher, one twenty two whip.

955
00:50:00,119 --> 00:50:02,400
The best thing he does is his walk right, which

956
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:06,880
is only it's seven percent, which is only one point

957
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:11,280
four percent worse or better than the league average barrel

958
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:14,800
rate eighth percentile heart hit rate eighth average Eckson, we

959
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:19,440
lost the eighth Chase tenth the Mets. If the Mets

960
00:50:19,519 --> 00:50:22,039
play to their talent, they can get to him, and

961
00:50:22,079 --> 00:50:26,840
I think they may do. So. We're looking at minea

962
00:50:27,039 --> 00:50:31,119
going for the Mets two point eighty eight, two point

963
00:50:31,159 --> 00:50:34,480
eighty eight expected zero point eight seven whip. He's been

964
00:50:34,599 --> 00:50:37,960
very good since he has come back from injury. It

965
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:40,440
has not taken him a lot of time to get

966
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:42,599
his control. In fact, his control has been better than

967
00:50:42,639 --> 00:50:46,360
it's been the last two years. Extension eighty six percentile

968
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,079
and he's six point five, so that ball gets on

969
00:50:49,199 --> 00:50:54,400
in a hurry. His fastball velocity unfortunately only in the

970
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:58,440
thirteenth percentle not a big fastball out of him ninety

971
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:00,559
one point six and he does throw a sixty six

972
00:51:00,639 --> 00:51:03,920
percent of the time. That is my concern. So we've

973
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:07,400
got two teams here going against each other, and I

974
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:11,079
think may have some offensive success in this one. And

975
00:51:11,119 --> 00:51:14,800
as I mentioned, the total is anywhere from eight to

976
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:18,480
eight and a half, kind of like the over a

977
00:51:18,519 --> 00:51:21,679
little bit here, a little bit I picked. Both teams

978
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:26,000
will five success. And Cleveland has faced as I mentioned

979
00:51:26,519 --> 00:51:29,280
just the other day, they face some really bad pitching staffs.

980
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:32,559
We'll see if that continues here. The Mets are not

981
00:51:32,639 --> 00:51:35,079
a bad pitching staff. That might put us slow it

982
00:51:35,119 --> 00:51:37,880
down a little bit. But yeah, just take a look

983
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,400
at that and just just an opinion on the over.

984
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 4: Guys, go to the replay and leave a comment and

985
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:46,920
a like and let wayja talk know that you'd like

986
00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:49,880
what we're doing. It helps us out a lot more

987
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:52,719
than you know. Actually, because Weyju Talk reads all your

988
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:56,519
comments and if they're really good, then we get lots

989
00:51:56,519 --> 00:51:56,920
of praise.

990
00:51:57,039 --> 00:51:57,840
Speaker 2: So help us out.

991
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,159
Speaker 4: I got a five percent. These two guys are going

992
00:52:01,199 --> 00:52:03,360
to put stuff out too, so go to our pages

993
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:07,599
and check out what we've got. When you sports bet

994
00:52:07,639 --> 00:52:10,840
for a long long time, you get these alibatrosses that

995
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,920
you stay away from that always get you. And Slade

996
00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:15,920
Checny is that one of them.

997
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 2: For me.

998
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:20,400
Speaker 4: I fade him. He pitches seven innings, shut out ball,

999
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:23,320
and I back him and he gives up seven runs

1000
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:27,199
and two innings. So I always stay away from Sladecni

1001
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,880
ever since he was a diamondback. I stay away from him, far,

1002
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:34,159
far far away. But I'll give you my thoughts on

1003
00:52:34,199 --> 00:52:35,800
the game, even though I'm not going to bet it.

1004
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:40,800
The Guardians are cranking the ball right now. They rank

1005
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:43,280
seven in all of MLB and run production, where the

1006
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:49,480
Mets rank eighteen, So check for Cleveland in that category. Bullpen.

1007
00:52:50,679 --> 00:52:54,280
Their bullpen was trash before the All Star break, but

1008
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:57,480
man have they turned it around. I got them top three,

1009
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:01,559
but I got the Mets top ten. So that's current form,

1010
00:53:01,559 --> 00:53:03,960
though it doesn't mean that's that's what they are. It

1011
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:06,800
means that's how they've been performing since the All Star break.

1012
00:53:07,639 --> 00:53:11,599
But man Sean and I, he's got great numbers against

1013
00:53:11,639 --> 00:53:14,239
his team in his career, and there's no way I

1014
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:19,280
would be able to fade him here where it is. Yeah,

1015
00:53:19,639 --> 00:53:22,320
two fifty average against in the six sixty three ops

1016
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:26,840
against in his career against these guys, he's got great

1017
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:33,760
numbers recently. And also he's got good numbers. Let's see,

1018
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:36,840
is this a home game for them? He's home, right, Yeah,

1019
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:38,960
and he's a great he's a great home pitcher as well,

1020
00:53:39,079 --> 00:53:43,280
So can't I don't want to back the Mets because

1021
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:47,159
they're hitting and bullpen are subpar compared to Cleveland, but

1022
00:53:48,599 --> 00:53:51,320
starting pitcher, I give them the advantage. So I'm gridlocked here,

1023
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,920
so I'm not going to take it. And I can't

1024
00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:57,320
stand betting Sledge Chaconi games, so won't be doing it.

1025
00:53:59,199 --> 00:54:01,400
Speaker 1: I mean, and that's the bullpen in baseball if you

1026
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:04,239
ask me, or at least like one. They're like top three.

1027
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:07,480
I mean, they went out like they kind of quietly.

1028
00:54:07,599 --> 00:54:11,039
I feel like they were the team that kind of

1029
00:54:11,119 --> 00:54:13,440
quietly made the best moves over the deadline. So like,

1030
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,079
I'm not saying that they had the most impactful trade

1031
00:54:16,079 --> 00:54:18,159
deadline in comparison to some of these other teams. But

1032
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:21,599
you know, obviously the Padres, I mean, they made a

1033
00:54:21,599 --> 00:54:25,159
lot of noise. They they mortgaged the future essentially to

1034
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:27,719
get a lot of these guys. The Mets just kind

1035
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:31,719
of quietly went out got another, you know too high

1036
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:34,119
light two or three high leverage relievers that are all

1037
00:54:34,559 --> 00:54:37,320
very solid that I think, you know, bolster the bullpen.

1038
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,880
They went out and got another outfield or it wasn't

1039
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:43,119
like anything crazy, But I truly beleate listen, that Dodgers

1040
00:54:43,159 --> 00:54:46,159
are deserving of being the favorite in the National League.

1041
00:54:46,159 --> 00:54:48,440
I don't think anyone's going to argue with that. If

1042
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:50,880
I had to put one team, if you said, treg,

1043
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:53,400
you could put one team up against the Dodgers, get

1044
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:56,039
you can pick one National League team to sort of

1045
00:54:56,599 --> 00:54:58,800
like rival the Dodgers, as like who should be the

1046
00:54:58,840 --> 00:54:59,480
co favorite?

1047
00:55:00,079 --> 00:55:02,280
Speaker 2: Should be the number two? For me, it's the Mets.

1048
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:05,559
Speaker 1: And it's not even like a question like I think

1049
00:55:05,639 --> 00:55:08,800
that this team from a like a collection the collection

1050
00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:11,360
of pitchers they have is as strong as any and

1051
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:14,800
their starters are not such that like you know that

1052
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:18,679
I don't think management or the managers and what stuff,

1053
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,400
the ones making the decision on the bench.

1054
00:55:21,119 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 2: And sort of putting the game plan together.

1055
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:25,400
Speaker 1: I feel like they have to push any of these

1056
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:27,000
starters super deep into games.

1057
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 2: It's gonna let.

1058
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:31,639
Speaker 1: Them really really use the full compliment of pitchers in

1059
00:55:31,679 --> 00:55:34,280
that bullpen, which is as deep as any other team

1060
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:37,760
in the league right now, especially when you're looking at

1061
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,760
leverage arms after what they grabbed at the deadline. And

1062
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:42,920
then you talk about like, I don't even think we've

1063
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:44,519
seen the full impact.

1064
00:55:44,079 --> 00:55:45,119
Speaker 2: Of Juan Soto yet.

1065
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:47,119
Speaker 1: I mean, I just think that, like if you if

1066
00:55:47,119 --> 00:55:48,960
you look at what he's done throughout his career and

1067
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:51,280
what he did last year as the season went on

1068
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:54,280
for the Yankees, I think he's even hasn't even hit

1069
00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:57,039
his ceiling to this point, like he could be that

1070
00:55:57,199 --> 00:55:59,719
much better. And then you talk about guys like Lindor

1071
00:56:00,199 --> 00:56:03,360
and Pete Alonzo, who we know have been able to

1072
00:56:04,159 --> 00:56:07,159
like perform at the highest level. I just I still

1073
00:56:07,199 --> 00:56:09,559
think there's so much room for the Mets to as

1074
00:56:09,639 --> 00:56:12,480
insane as that sounds, there's actually room.

1075
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:14,320
Speaker 2: For this team to get a lot better. And yet

1076
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:15,440
they're still sitting here.

1077
00:56:16,119 --> 00:56:19,320
Speaker 1: You know, basically even with the Phillies and like second

1078
00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:22,039
or third best record in the National League. So I'm

1079
00:56:22,199 --> 00:56:25,679
very very high in the Mets, the Guardians. I don't

1080
00:56:25,679 --> 00:56:27,239
think the bullpen's good. I don't think this team is

1081
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:29,440
good at all. I know that they banged around the

1082
00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:32,039
Twins a little bit this weekend. I fully expect them

1083
00:56:32,039 --> 00:56:34,000
to play their way out of the race, and I'll

1084
00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:36,119
be looking for spots to just ride the Mets this

1085
00:56:36,159 --> 00:56:39,480
whole series starting here so strongly into the Mets for

1086
00:56:39,519 --> 00:56:42,480
me here, I really think they're just a very very.

1087
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:44,559
Speaker 2: Good, good ball club.

1088
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:48,559
Speaker 1: Okay, seven Tokyo, Brandon, do you know what you're going

1089
00:56:48,599 --> 00:56:49,840
to close this parlay out with?

1090
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:53,199
Speaker 4: I do, And unfortunately it's going to be a little

1091
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:56,920
anti climactic, but I'm going to take the Tigers on

1092
00:56:56,960 --> 00:57:00,880
the money line today against Minnesota. I'm surprised Min's even out.

1093
00:57:01,159 --> 00:57:03,480
I'm seeing one minus one sixty five. Not sure what

1094
00:57:03,559 --> 00:57:06,960
Brian has is it around one sixty five?

1095
00:57:07,519 --> 00:57:11,679
Speaker 3: Um anywhere from one sixty to one seventy five. Minnesota

1096
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:15,039
hasn't released their pitcher yet, right, yeah.

1097
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:18,239
Speaker 4: Exactly, which is why I say it's a little anti climactic.

1098
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:23,719
But out of all starters versus batters stats today, Casey

1099
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:26,400
miz has the best stats of any starter against the

1100
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:29,119
team he's facing today. He's got a one to eighty

1101
00:57:29,159 --> 00:57:32,039
two average against in a five hundred ops against. As

1102
00:57:32,039 --> 00:57:35,199
I've said previously, I look at seven fifty ops as

1103
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:39,559
kind of the over under whether you dominate them or not,

1104
00:57:39,639 --> 00:57:43,519
and he's one hundred and fifty points under. Great stats.

1105
00:57:43,559 --> 00:57:48,519
He's a good home pitcher and Minnesota. Here's an interesting stat.

1106
00:57:48,559 --> 00:57:51,599
At the trade deadline, Minnesota traded forty percent of their

1107
00:57:51,679 --> 00:57:56,679
roster away, So, man, do they have some holes right now?

1108
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:59,199
And do they have a lack of momentum. I was

1109
00:57:59,199 --> 00:58:01,880
actually surprised they took Game three against the Guardians, but

1110
00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:09,119
they did so Minnesota doesn't have a starter listed here.

1111
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:15,280
Casey Mice has great stats against these guys. But maybe

1112
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:17,800
it'll be an opener for Minnesota. And if it is,

1113
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:20,400
that's great because their bullpen ranks twenty six out of

1114
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:23,559
thirty according to my numbers. So if it's an opener, great,

1115
00:58:24,159 --> 00:58:26,480
that'll give the number six lineup in all of Major

1116
00:58:26,559 --> 00:58:29,639
League Baseball plenty of chances to tee off on a

1117
00:58:29,679 --> 00:58:34,159
horrible bullpen. Minnesota's hitting twenty fifth out of thirty right now.

1118
00:58:34,199 --> 00:58:37,320
So they're the only team, the only team that I

1119
00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:42,159
have ranked twenty five or lower in bullpen and batting.

1120
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:45,679
So yeah, I think the Tigers are going to handle business.

1121
00:58:45,719 --> 00:58:48,599
The great home team and they just got clobbered, so

1122
00:58:49,119 --> 00:58:51,559
they're going to be a little bit angry. Give me

1123
00:58:51,599 --> 00:58:53,360
the Tigers here for my parlay.

1124
00:58:53,079 --> 00:58:55,519
Speaker 3: Leg got them about one sixty five.

1125
00:58:56,920 --> 00:59:00,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I'm seeing too, Ryan, what do you

1126
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:01,239
think about that game?

1127
00:59:01,280 --> 00:59:02,960
Speaker 1: We have a minute or two left, so we might

1128
00:59:03,039 --> 00:59:05,840
as well just finish the breakdown of Twins Tigers here.

1129
00:59:06,199 --> 00:59:10,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, I watched that entire series from Minnesota. They've got

1130
00:59:10,679 --> 00:59:14,440
a weak lineup in the bullpen. The major concern I

1131
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:16,880
have for Minnesota right now is they traded away their

1132
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:20,440
three best arms in the bullpen. That's a major concern.

1133
00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:23,960
They played pretty well against Cleveland, but like I said,

1134
00:59:24,039 --> 00:59:27,880
Cleveland is playing a lot of bad pitching staffs in

1135
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:31,039
Minnesota is the same way. So yeah, I would definitely

1136
00:59:31,039 --> 00:59:35,000
play Detroit here. I'm not a Casey Mais fan, and

1137
00:59:35,199 --> 00:59:38,559
the line is not crazy. Although I wish to try

1138
00:59:38,679 --> 00:59:39,880
was playing better ball right now.

1139
00:59:41,599 --> 00:59:44,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was surprised to see Mick Abel starting at

1140
00:59:44,679 --> 00:59:47,840
Triple A yesterday. I would have fully expected him to

1141
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:50,639
just join the Twins rotation after, you know, kind.

1142
00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 2: Of making that move.

1143
00:59:51,440 --> 00:59:55,079
Speaker 1: Maybe they maybe he will this coming weekend when they're home.

1144
00:59:55,159 --> 00:59:59,199
But that was surprising to me that he was put

1145
00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:02,440
back the trip because I just felt like, you're trading

1146
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,000
for him, he's already been to the big leagues. Like

1147
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:07,920
it's it's an odd thing the Twins are doing right

1148
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:10,400
now because even after making those trades, there are only

1149
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:13,400
about six games out, but it certainly feels like they've

1150
01:00:13,639 --> 01:00:15,800
This is a team that really feels like they've waved

1151
01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:18,800
the white flag on this season, like it is it

1152
01:00:18,840 --> 01:00:21,599
is that I don't think that this team's going to

1153
01:00:21,679 --> 01:00:22,320
come back from that.

1154
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:22,599
Speaker 2: Now.

1155
01:00:22,599 --> 01:00:25,599
Speaker 1: There are some interesting pieces at Triple A. Come give

1156
01:00:25,599 --> 01:00:28,159
it three weeks and then like come September, when some

1157
01:00:28,199 --> 01:00:32,199
of these guys get up the when Keshel is back,

1158
01:00:32,519 --> 01:00:35,559
or they bring up the couple of guys from Double

1159
01:00:35,599 --> 01:00:38,840
A that just got to Triple A, Gonzales and Fedco

1160
01:00:39,039 --> 01:00:41,559
like some of those guys, they could be an interesting

1161
01:00:41,639 --> 01:00:45,400
team in September when like the value is completely.

1162
01:00:45,079 --> 01:00:46,119
Speaker 2: Swung in the other direction.

1163
01:00:46,239 --> 01:00:48,559
Speaker 1: But right now, I still feel like they get a

1164
01:00:48,559 --> 01:00:51,639
little love from the books for being the Twins, and

1165
01:00:51,679 --> 01:00:54,639
this is like a developmental team right now, Like I

1166
01:00:55,119 --> 01:00:57,280
think you got to kind of just continue to fade them.

1167
01:00:57,719 --> 01:01:00,480
And you're talking about a Tiger's team that's gonna be

1168
01:01:00,480 --> 01:01:02,360
a little pissed off. They just dropped two of three

1169
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:05,400
from the Phillies in what was a series that they

1170
01:01:05,400 --> 01:01:06,679
could have won all three of those games.

1171
01:01:06,679 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 2: I mean they played.

1172
01:01:07,559 --> 01:01:09,880
Speaker 1: I thought the Tigers played very good ball this weekend

1173
01:01:10,199 --> 01:01:14,400
and probably deserved better than losing two of those three games.

1174
01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:17,440
But they were playing against an elite opponent. Now they

1175
01:01:17,440 --> 01:01:20,519
get the Twins, I think, yeah again. I'm with you, Brian.

1176
01:01:20,559 --> 01:01:22,960
I'm not a huge miz guy, but I also really

1177
01:01:22,960 --> 01:01:25,239
don't care for anything the Twins are doing right now,

1178
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,119
so I would have to be on with Tokyo Brandon

1179
01:01:28,199 --> 01:01:31,480
with you, I think it's Tigers or Pass.

1180
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:34,039
Speaker 2: We've hit ten o'clock. Let's run it back.

1181
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:40,000
Speaker 1: The parlay today plus four thirty. We are plus seven

1182
01:01:40,039 --> 01:01:42,440
point four units on the parlay this season. That means

1183
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:44,599
for every one dollar if you were to play them

1184
01:01:44,639 --> 01:01:48,480
all equally, every one dollar risk has returned seven dollars

1185
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:49,119
and forty cents.

1186
01:01:49,119 --> 01:01:50,920
Speaker 2: Listen, we're in August.

1187
01:01:51,079 --> 01:01:53,239
Speaker 1: That's pretty good that we're still ahead on these and

1188
01:01:53,519 --> 01:01:57,519
we're trying to stay that way. So today's parlay plus

1189
01:01:57,519 --> 01:02:01,400
four thirty odds. We have three full sides, so make

1190
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:03,719
it nice and easy for you guys. It's Orioles plus

1191
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:08,400
one and a half, Marlin's money line, Tigers money line

1192
01:02:08,400 --> 01:02:11,119
plus four thirty. We've got Orioles plus one and a half.

1193
01:02:11,559 --> 01:02:14,280
Marlin's on the money line, Tiger's on the money line.

1194
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:18,559
That's the three teamer Appreciate you guys tuning in. Almost

1195
01:02:18,599 --> 01:02:20,519
a thousand of you in here live today, which we

1196
01:02:20,599 --> 01:02:24,320
really appreciate if you did join late. Remember we're always

1197
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:27,199
on demand over on the wager Talk YouTube channel. Head

1198
01:02:27,239 --> 01:02:29,159
over there, give us a like, drop us a comment,

1199
01:02:29,239 --> 01:02:32,039
it does help, and we'll see you guys in the morning.

1200
01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 2: More total basis tomorrow, nine am Eastern. See you then,