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Speaker 1: And hello, Hello, Hello, Hello, How are you welcome to

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the Big Podcast on this Tuesday. The day is the

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fifth day of May, Year of Our Lord, twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: My name is Tom Sullivan. So we have we have

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a summary of a bunch of different states that are

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involved in primaries. In California, there's going to be a

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big governor's debate out there tonight. We'll give you a

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little insight into some of that oil and gas prices.

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I mean, it's just it's I wish I could I

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could do some sort of happy, go lucky report about that.

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But all these people that I'm following are saying that

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they're probably going to go higher, especially the longer this

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whole conflict in Iran last. But let's start with Let's

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start with the war. We'll get you up to date

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on the very latest of what's going on, because it's

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it's starting to look like the President is doing everything

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he can not to restart combat. He wants to get negotiations,

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but he's been putting. He gave them two to three days,

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and he gave him three to five days, and he

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gave them. It just keeps getting extended and extended extended

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to the point where I don't think Iran is not

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only not serious about entering into any sort of negotiations

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for a peace agreement, but I also think that they're

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breaking the cease fire agreement and they're just pushing to

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see how far they can push the president. The people

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in charge in Iran, not the politicians, not the Ayatola,

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the Sun, not the It's the IRGC and the people

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that run that are supposed to be the most hardline people.

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Ever they're illogical or delusional. I don't think there's any

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other way around this until we get back to a

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military action to take control of the country. Once we

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do that, then we can move forward. But I don't

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think otherwise. I think we're just going in circles. I'll

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start with the guy we use a lot on this podcast,

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General Jack Keane.

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Speaker 3: Yes, well, this is a major priority here that's taking place,

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and President Trump's done, in my judgment, exactly the right thing.

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And we just go back in time. We know what happened.

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Irani is closed down the straits of a moose, and

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we began negotiations because it appeared like something tangible could

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come of the ceasefire, and negotiations well after three plus weeks,

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it's pretty apparent to the administration that Iran is not

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going to present anything to the Administration that's acceptable, and

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certainly one of the things on the table was to

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open up the straits of a mouse. In the meantime,

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during those three weeks, we put down a blockade, obviously

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to shut down all of Iran's exports, and that has

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been very, very successful. Exports, certainly by sea trans land experts.

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Exports are still going out, but the overwhelming majority is

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shut down. And President Trump recognized full well that they're

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not going to voluntarily open up the straits of a moose.

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So we're doing it by force. And it's a major

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comprehensive operation, as you just indicated, involved in hundreds of airplanes,

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scores of ships involved in this layered defense that goes

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deep into Iran to detect any incoming missile, incoming drone,

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and then at the terminal defense right in the straits

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of a moose's take of a dome being placed over

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ships that are passing through the straits of a moose

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to defeat fast boats which have been defeated, drones that

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fly in that area, or anything that penetrates through the

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layered defense itself. Even a shoulder fired weapon from Iran's

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land is a factor here and has to be defeated.

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The lane that's been opened, their minds have been cleared,

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is very close to Aman in terms of its land base,

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right there at the straits of a Moose, so it

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we're not near the Iranian side, but it's only twenty

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miles away, so most drones and missiles obviously can reach

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it in any event. So what has happened here, Six

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ships have gotten through. That's just they're dropping a bucket

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in terms of the hundreds that are sitting in the

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Persian Gulf. The reason we're doing this is because those

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ships are sitting there and they need food, they need

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to get out of there. I mean, they're being held

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back by the Iranians. So that's the decision the President

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has made here, and I think it's the right decision.

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There are two things that will likely force us to

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go back into combat operations in addition to this priority mission.

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Fire on US warships that has happened, and also fire

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on our allies and partners in the region of US

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spaces and that has happened as well. So it's likely

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that we will go back into combat operations, but the

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priority will be opening up the straits of a Moves

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and getting the traffic to flow. And the amount of

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resources we have involved in this thing is really quite significant,

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and you outlay some of it and I've just filled

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in some of the blanks here. More to follow on

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this operation as we go through the days in front

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of us.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so he said there are two things that will

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get combat operations up and running again. One of them

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is firing on our ships. The second one is firing

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on our allies. He said, both have happened, and it's true.

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Let's see, looking down my list of things that happened

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since yesterday. Iran has fired on ships nine times since

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the ceasefire went into effect, and they have taken they

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have seized two container ships. They've attacked US forces ten times.

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But apparently all of this is below the threshold of

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restarting combat now. General Dan Caine gave at the Pentagon

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the Gate this morning, gave a briefing and said they

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asked him about, well, what is the what's the threshold?

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I mean, what more do you need? And he said,

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that's not my call, that is for the president. So

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we have sank six of their fast boats since they

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were approaching our ships. And Pete hag Sith, the Secretary

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of Defense, said today in his opening comments at the Pentagon,

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the ceasefire is not over. And I'm going, what do

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you mean the ceasefire isn't over. We've they're firing on

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our ships, they're firing on our allies. It sure seems

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like a ceasefire is over. But so anyway, they've got

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a couple of ships that have gone through. But the

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normal traffic that goes through the Strait of Hormuz is

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approximately one hundred to one hundred and twenty ships each

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and every day. David Roady, who is a NBC reporter,

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he covers national security in the Pentagon. This is his assessment.

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Speaker 4: You can get very messy, and Congression officials called me

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right when this broke. There was a call that Admiral

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Cooper did the commander in the theater. It was an

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excellent briefing, to be honest, and I'm biased to sort

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of a reporter, but very fact based, lots of details,

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and it was very clear this was a major American

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attack on US Navy ships. The US Navy was able

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to shoot downs the drones and cruise missiles. These small

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boats aren't that big of a threat. The American helicopters

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took them out. But at any time, Iran has these

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missile capabilities, drones and ballistic missiles. They hit a refinery

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yesterday in the UAE. So again, if the US is

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going to somehow walk away and some European force is

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going to take over all this, I just don't understand

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how it's going to work up. And then, last of all,

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an administration and i'll say a defense secretary in particular

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and a president who talk about toughness, staring down the

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enemy and never you know, reflecting strength. This was a

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direct attack on American forces. This put US sailors in danger.

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We shot down those weapons, but there's no question these

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congressional offishers who got you know, separate information on it,

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this was a significant attack on US forces. The resident

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is making the decision to not say that the violation

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that the ceasefire has been violated.

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Speaker 2: That's a political decision.

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Speaker 4: General Caine himself said it's not my decision, but clearly

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this is a violation the ceasefire. And so the administration

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is going to just keeps trying to say everything's going well.

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Ceasfire is going to continue, but the core problem is

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not solved here, and I think it's going to take

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American forces staying there for months, if not years, to

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reopen a straight to that po.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's he said, years, Yes he did. You heard

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that right, But I mean again, the ceasefire. I mean

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this guy like like I am, I'm going to ceasefire

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has been violated. But Pete Haegsas says no, the ceasefire

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is still in effect. Meantime, General Dan Cain, the Chairman

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of the Joint Chiefs at the Pentagon briefing this morning.

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Speaker 5: We low harassing fire right now. It feels like Ron

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is grasping its straws to try to do something across

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the southern flank. To your question, David, their command and

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control structure remains very fractured, and I think they're struggling

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to maintain control down echelon at the edge. But we're

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still it's still pretty low level kinetics at this point

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in time.

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Speaker 2: They're doing everything to ignore the elephant in the room.

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The kinetics are kinetics. They are attacking our ships. So

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again it goes back to the question of is the

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Foreign Minister in charge, is the Iatola in charge? Is

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the IRGC in charge? General General Keane makes it very clear.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think we know who's in power. It's certainly

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not the president he's been sidelined some time ago. It's

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certainly not the foreign minister who's been sidelined some time ago.

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The IRGC is in charge. There's there's no doubt about it.

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They've got the guns and they have the access to

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the Supreme Leada. Obviously Moltaba comin A, who's the son

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of the Ayatola, he doesn't have the power that his

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father had, and is the power that came here being

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filled by the IRGC leadership and they are calling the shots.

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I don't think we should pay much attention to what

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the foreign minister says, or frankly, to what the President

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of Iran said. The guys in charger as I'm meant,

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and the principal person in charges I'm in Vehiti and

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he and his cohorts, they are as hard line as

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anybody that has been in control of Iran. And we've

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got to understand that no thought of monerits here. These

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are hardline leaders and from where they're concerned, you only

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have one objective here, that is to survive. They believe

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if they survived, they eventually will recover. So even our

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blockade and it's economic peril it's imposing on the country

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and the people, they're willing to absorb that suffering. You

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have to understand how diabolical these people truly are. They

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don't care about the suffering of their people. That's just

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the reality of who we're dealing with here. And that's

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why military force is being applied here because they are

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certainly not going to voluntarily open up the straits of

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Moves themselves. We've got the force that to happen.

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Speaker 2: I think you can tell General teene A he's a

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military man, but b I mean, he's just he's trying

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to be politically nice, but he's calling the shots and

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he's going this is going to take a military action

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in order to get this solved.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think it's inevitable that we're going to return

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to combat operations here with full throttle Israeli combat operations.

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They're not involved in the straits of a Moos. We are.

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The priority for us will continue to be opening up

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the straits of a Moves. We likely can do some

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selective targeting of some very critical targets. As Iran continues

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to violate the ceasefire, understand that, so our audience gets this,

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we did not violate a ceasefire. All we did is

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move ships through the straits of a move and we're

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in a completely defensive crouch to protect the ships going

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through there. It is Iran who broke the cease fire

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by firing at the shop, by firing at UAE and

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Oman and Seleny fire at US warships to include the

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merchant vessels. They violated the ceasefire and were completely justified

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in responding to that.

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Speaker 2: Well, another military man, retired admiral, he was a former

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NATO commander for the US Navy, Admiral stav Ritez, and

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he's usually pretty laid back, but he's looking at the

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ships and the sailors that are on duty trying to

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bring ships through the strait of ourmuz as incredibly brave.

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Speaker 6: Those are very brave merchant captains who made that decision.

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Considering we don't have a good picture of the mind situation.

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Are their minds and are there a lot of minds

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we don't know. Certainly, the attacks by the Iranians have

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continued the threat is certainly still there because of the drone.

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So my hats off to the merchant captains who made

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that decision to go evidently unescorted through the strait. That's

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a pretty risky proposition for those big merchants loaded up

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with oil. What needs to happen is if we're going

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to undertake an escort program like this, got to get organized,

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got to get them in convoys, got to put guided

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missile frigates and destroyers with them, got to sweep for minds,

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a lot of work to do before that strait is

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actually fully open. Let's begin with this kind of tail

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of two blockades. You've shown one there, and it's not

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as simple for the Iranians as getting out of green

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sharpie or a red sharpie and drawing the line. In

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order to really enforce that, they're going to have to

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have a lot of not only mines, they're going to

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use small boats, they're going to use drones. So they've

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got capability and capacity, but it's a challenge. The US

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Navy blockade, which is one thousand miles of Iranian coastline,

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continues to pace, and the whole is that that will

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put economic pressure on the Iranians and get them back

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to the table. In terms of escort or guide, to me,

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those aren't technical military terms, but to me, an escort

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would be think basketball. It would be pretty close to

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a man demand kind of defense. You'd put probably five

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merchants together, put a guided missile cruiser with them, and

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you'd drive through the strait together to give them protection.

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Think of that as escort. In terms of guide them,

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you might think zone defense. You'd kind of put up

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a few guided missile ships and then the merchants would go,

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if you will, from safe spot to safe spot going through.

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We should not underestimate the effort it will take to

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open the straight and keep it open. Think one aircraft carrier,

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two dozen guided missile destroyers, half a dozen frigates, three

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hundred air force aircraft, fifty arms. I'm not trying to

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drag you into military porn here, but it would take

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a lot of capacity to keep that straight open.

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Speaker 2: Well, the numbers are staggering as far as the personnel,

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the ships and everything else that we need, and we

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how long are we going to keep them around? This

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isn't something we're going to do for a couple of days.

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If we're going to keep that open, and we're not

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going to come to a ceasefire agreement or a peace agreement,

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and the IRGC is still in charge of everything going on,

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and ran this could go on forever until we do

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a military attack. And then one more question for the

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admirals and see was the NATO commander, what about the

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announcement that we're going to pull five thousand American troops

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out of Germany.

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Speaker 6: Let's do the numbers. There are one hundred thousand US

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troops in Europe, so five thousand is five percent. It's

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hardly a death blow to NATO or the US forces Europe.

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On the other hand, it has high symbolic content, and

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our largest concentration of troops, about thirty thousand, are in Germany.

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And it also kind of rattles fears in other places

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where we have troops, such as northern Italy, Spain. We

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have a large concentration of guided missile destroyers, and all

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of these European countries derive benefit from those troops. There's

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a huge economic impact on their economy. So I think

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this is symbolic, it's a sign of displeasure on the

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part of the president. Final thought, I am hopeful that

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the Europeans will in fact participate in a mission to

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open this strait. This may provide some impetus to get

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that to happen.

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Speaker 2: So let's move back to the United States. Like I

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said when we started today, we've got a lot of

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state primaries today. The big one and the most controversial

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one is in Indiana. This goes back to the Republican dominate.

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Indiana is a very state and the Republicans dominate the

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scorecard there. There are believe it's seven Republicans and two Democrats,

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and the President wanted the legislature in Indiana to redraw

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the map to get rid of the two Democrats, and

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the Republicans in the state Senate said no. So the

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President has set up a whole bunch of people to

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primary the Republican state senators and that is what they're

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voting on. Part of what they're voting on today. Former

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spokesman for the Indiana Republican Party Pete's seat kind of

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lays out what the situation is there.

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Speaker 7: Well, the expectation game is in full swing this morning.

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Supporters of the incumbents have set there over under at

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four and a half. They think that anything less than

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five incumbents falling is a sign that they were right

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all along about that districting vote, and that the president

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and his team his allies wasted a lot of time, energy, effort,

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and dollars that could have been spent elsewhere like in Virginia.

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Then you talk to supporters of the challengers and they're

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over under is two and a half. They think three

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or more challengers prevailing is a great success for their

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side and proof that they were right to take on

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these campaigns. But what's been so interesting to me is

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how little redistricting has been talked about on the campaign trail.

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Voters weren't focused on redrawing the maps. They were in

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fact calling their senators and saying, don't do it. We

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oppose this, we do maps the right way in Indiana.

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So it was the catalyst. It got President Trump involved,

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It got these challengers to sign up and run. But

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even these challengers will tell you they set it on

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the record to other media outlets when they're.

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Speaker 2: Going door to door.

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Speaker 7: Voters are not bringing up redistricting organically. It's just not

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a topic of conversation. Instead, they have widened the aperture.

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They're using the tried and true primary messaging of Hey,

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these incumbents are insufficiently conservative, they're out of step with

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the President's agenda, and you need to turn them away,

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all right.

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Speaker 2: So if the challengers that Donald Trump is supporting, if

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they lose, well the Republicans in the indian the Legislature

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thumb their nose basically at the President. No, I don't

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see it that way.

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Speaker 7: I don't see who's your Republicans thumbing their nose at

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the president or telling him to take a hike, as

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it were. Rather, I would see them if that happens.

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If a significant number of these incumbents are successful today,

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I see them saying, mister President, respectfully, we appreciate your endorsement,

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but we know these state senators better than you know them,

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and we want to return them to the Indianapolis State

336
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House for another four years. I don't really think that

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this is about Trump in that sense. This is about

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affirming the votes that those state senators cast opposing redistricting.

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On the other hand, if the president is successful, if

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challengers are successful, that one hundred percent is because of

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the Trump endorsement. In most cases, these challengers were little known,

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they've never run for office before. A couple of them

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are in city or county office, but they don't have

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a state Senate district sized base of support.

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Speaker 2: The President's name, the money coming in from out of state,

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the grassroots support that has been flown here to knock

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on doors, that will make the difference for them if

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they So, this is a real test of the president's

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political ability to get things done the way that he

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wants them done, even in the state of Indiana. If

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that's not the only place that's looking at redrawing maps

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or not Florida, that they are going to be able

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to redraw their map, and it may add four more

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Republican seats. Ron DeSantis has performed some magic, and well

355
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here's Carl Rove to talk about what's going on in

356
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not only Florida but elsewhere. Well, four seats may not

357
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sound like much, but that could be the difference between

358
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a Republican majority and a Republican minority. What's interesting to

359
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me is Florida has a law that says you cannot

360
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do you cannot draw lines to benefit at a party

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or an incumbent. And so you'll notice during this whole

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discussion there was muted comments by the legislature and virtually

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nothing out of the governor's office. They didn't want to

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create a paper trail, if you will, for the court

365
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cases that are sure to follow where people would say, well,

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you violated the state's ban on partisan jerry mandering. So

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they were quiet about what the purpose of this was

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and who was going to benefit and who wasn't going

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to be in it. So meantime, the Democrats are not

370
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sitting on their hands. HAKEM. Jeffries is apparently trying to

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do everything in his power to try to stop the

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State of Florida from redrawing their maps. Right, well, he

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too has challenges from the court. So the state of

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New York and a referendum passed an anti jerry mandarin

375
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constitutional amendment. So I don't think he's going to have

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the capacity to do this this year. He was sort

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of foreshadowing that he might do something next year. But look,

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this is all politics. He's got the left wing of

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his party standing up saying, what are you going to

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do to counter what the Republicans have been doing. So

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he's going through the motions here looking like he's doing something.

382
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But I think it's unlikely that New York, given its

383
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constitutional requirements and the approaching primaries and so forth is

384
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going to be able to get this all done. But

385
00:24:03,599 --> 00:24:06,200
back to you, you mentioned something. The Democrats are now

386
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:10,839
targeting forty House Republican seats. They just added I think

387
00:24:10,839 --> 00:24:14,720
it was eight to their list. Now, I think that's

388
00:24:14,759 --> 00:24:18,079
a stretch. Every party going into an election has more

389
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targets than it actually has real good opportunities. They are

390
00:24:20,799 --> 00:24:24,440
hoping that something swings their way, and it could swing

391
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the Democratics way the Democratic Party's way, But I think

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the jerrymandering that we've got and the solidity between the

393
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two parties, Remember we have this odd circumstance where President

394
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Trump is unpopular but the Democratic Party is unpopular. Take

395
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the new Harris survey, the generic ballot is fifty Republican

396
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,240
fifty Democrat, which would mean that we would have a

397
00:24:43,279 --> 00:24:48,119
relatively small number of changes in the districts. Basically, would

398
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,079
would really be at risk were Democrat seats that were

399
00:24:51,079 --> 00:24:53,680
carried by Donald Trump and Republican seats that were carried

400
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,680
by Kamala Harris. And that's much smaller than forty seats,

401
00:24:57,799 --> 00:25:00,240
is probably less than twenty seats. Well, we're about six

402
00:25:00,279 --> 00:25:01,920
months away from all of that, so it's a little

403
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:06,640
bit early, but still things are looking rather split. I

404
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,839
mean this is that Karl talked about one survey, the

405
00:25:08,839 --> 00:25:12,279
hair survey. I've seen a number of them where you

406
00:25:12,799 --> 00:25:17,240
would think that the Republicans are toast because they keep

407
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:22,079
repeating over and over again how Donald Trump's favorable ratings

408
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,319
have dropped like a rock. But then when they ask

409
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the question, well what about Republicans versus Democrats? Do you

410
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,599
like the Republicans? And a big no. And then they say,

411
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well what about Democrats? Do you like the Democrats? And

412
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:42,880
an equal number of knows. Nobody likes the politicians for

413
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:47,720
good reason. So let's move out to California because tonight

414
00:25:48,799 --> 00:25:53,720
there will be a televised debate from the state for

415
00:25:54,079 --> 00:25:58,960
their governor's race, and there are going to be CNN

416
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is hosting this. It's going to be at nine o'clock

417
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:06,279
Eastern six o'clock Pacific time tonight. I'm going to tune

418
00:26:06,279 --> 00:26:08,920
into sea just exactly what they've got going out there,

419
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to see if they have anybody that has any sort

420
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of strong lead. Harry Enton was talking today though about

421
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gas prices in California, just one of the many things

422
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,480
that you look at. Gavin Newsom's pretending like everything's perfect

423
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in California. Just the gas prices alone made Harry Enton

424
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:37,319
do a special report about how Californians are getting absolutely

425
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robbed at their gas stations.

426
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Speaker 8: Big Oh my goodness, gracious. I mean, just take a

427
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look at the price of gasoline for a gallon gas.

428
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The national average right now it's four forty eight. But

429
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,200
you think that's been go out to the left coast

430
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top in the United States six dollars and thirteen cents.

431
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There's even a gas station out there where the cost

432
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is about ten dollars per gallon. And of course, if

433
00:27:02,039 --> 00:27:04,400
you've ever been out there, you always know that the

434
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prices in California for a gallon of gas are just

435
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:13,039
simply put absolutely outrageous, running well ahead of the national average.

436
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The folks in California really getting hurt by this increasing

437
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gas prices.

438
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Speaker 2: And it's a former Californian. It's gotten a lot worse.

439
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,359
It used to be that gas taxes were the big

440
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,960
complaint because they were about eleven cents. Listen to this.

441
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:35,960
They are much worse. They've expanded gas taxes exponentially since

442
00:27:36,519 --> 00:27:38,720
I moved to the East coast. Let's go back to

443
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hear it.

444
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Speaker 8: That's exactly right. One of the big reasons why you

445
00:27:42,279 --> 00:27:45,000
see this big difference right here is, in fact, the

446
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,039
gas tax out in California, and our partners at USA

447
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,640
Facts helped provide this data for us. Take a look

448
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,200
here the state gas tax and fees per gallon. You know,

449
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,480
in the average state, it's thirty three cents. California again

450
00:27:56,599 --> 00:27:59,400
the top in the nation, more than double that, it's

451
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seventy one. Now, Johnny b the quick math here is

452
00:28:02,559 --> 00:28:05,279
what a difference of thirty thirty eight cent.

453
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Speaker 2: That's a tough one. That's a tough one to do

454
00:28:06,799 --> 00:28:07,160
in your head.

455
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 8: Yes, yes, it's thirty eight I know it's it's very,

456
00:28:09,759 --> 00:28:11,720
very difficult my math lessons. You're trying to work this

457
00:28:11,759 --> 00:28:14,000
one thirty eight cents. You know, a decade ago the

458
00:28:14,039 --> 00:28:17,079
difference here was just eleven cents. So what you're essentially

459
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,480
seeing here is that Californians are feeling the pain more

460
00:28:20,599 --> 00:28:23,200
and more over the last decade when it comes to

461
00:28:23,279 --> 00:28:25,920
the gas pump. Because one of the big reasons why

462
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,039
is the state gas tax and feest per gallon have

463
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:29,279
been climbing ever.

464
00:28:29,279 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 2: High did he say seventy three cents seventy three cent

465
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:38,680
tax on every gallon. So before you pay the oil

466
00:28:38,759 --> 00:28:42,160
companies anything, you were already paying seventy three cents a

467
00:28:42,319 --> 00:28:45,519
gallon in California. It's crazy.

468
00:28:46,119 --> 00:28:49,599
Speaker 8: Okay, see this thirty eight cent difference here?

469
00:28:49,799 --> 00:28:51,519
Speaker 2: You see this? What is this?

470
00:28:51,599 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 8: You know, nearly two dollars difference here and not much

471
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,319
of a surprise here. California standards for energy and gas

472
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not worth the added gas costs. Look at this. Among voters,

473
00:29:00,599 --> 00:29:03,880
fifty seven percent say it's not worth it. Among independents

474
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it's sixty one percent. It's going to be very interesting

475
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,000
to see if there's a question night when it comes

476
00:29:08,039 --> 00:29:10,960
to those gas costs, because Californians are clearly feeling the pain,

477
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,440
and many of them at this point say, you know it,

478
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,240
it's just simply put not worth it.

479
00:29:15,359 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, the debate is tonight, and I mean, I'm sorry,

480
00:29:18,519 --> 00:29:22,799
that would be pure malpractice on the part of the

481
00:29:22,839 --> 00:29:25,480
people from CNN that will be hosting and questioning the

482
00:29:26,279 --> 00:29:30,400
people in running for governor tonight. So overall gas prices

483
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,880
today the average triple a four dollars forty eight cents.

484
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:38,799
That's up three cents from yesterday. Diesel average across the

485
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:43,559
nation five dollars sixty six cents. You heard Harry talking

486
00:29:43,559 --> 00:29:46,920
about California, the average for the cheap stuff six dollars

487
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:52,960
and thirteen cents. It's over seven dollars average for your

488
00:29:53,039 --> 00:29:57,759
cheap stuff in some of the counties of California. So

489
00:29:57,839 --> 00:30:02,079
speaking of oil and gas, Matt Smith he is with Kepler.

490
00:30:02,119 --> 00:30:04,920
Kepler keeps track of the marine traffic in and out

491
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,200
of the Strait of Hormuz, but they also are a

492
00:30:08,279 --> 00:30:12,440
global consulting firm that keeps track of oil production, use

493
00:30:12,559 --> 00:30:16,400
and production around the world. And Matt weighed in on

494
00:30:16,519 --> 00:30:19,200
where oil prices and gas prices are going.

495
00:30:20,119 --> 00:30:22,839
Speaker 9: Just in the last couple of weeks, we've seen twelve

496
00:30:22,839 --> 00:30:26,160
thousand flights being canceled. That's two million seats. That is

497
00:30:26,319 --> 00:30:30,160
just for maye yes exactly. In terms of jet fuel

498
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,720
exports on a global basis, we see about two million

499
00:30:32,759 --> 00:30:35,920
barrels a day being exported normally. Last month we saw

500
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,319
one point three million barrels a day. So it's not

501
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,480
just the fact that you're not getting jet fuel out

502
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,720
of the Middle East, because they are the large exporters

503
00:30:42,759 --> 00:30:45,440
of the stuff, but it's the fact that Asia is

504
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,519
not getting the Crewe that it needs to refine into

505
00:30:48,559 --> 00:30:50,640
the jet fuel, and so they're trying to meet their

506
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,640
domestic needs and they're struggling to meet the export needs

507
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,200
as well. And so it is a series of dominoes

508
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,279
that are falling here, and so jet is the first

509
00:30:58,279 --> 00:31:01,039
one to go. Asia is the first region, but it's

510
00:31:01,039 --> 00:31:03,400
going to spread across the globe, and it's also going

511
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:04,359
to spread.

512
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:05,319
Speaker 2: Across the products as well.

513
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 9: So you know, the national average here for gasoline is

514
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,240
approaching four dollars fifty a gallon. You know, as oil

515
00:31:11,279 --> 00:31:14,359
prices tick higher five bucks ten bucks higher, that's going

516
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,079
to be reflected through into incremental increases at the pump.

517
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 2: That's right, he said, it is probably going to go higher.

518
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,759
And jet fuel that the shortages of jet fuel are

519
00:31:23,799 --> 00:31:27,039
going to spread around the globe. And according to Matt,

520
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:28,720
it's going to spread.

521
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 9: Here absolutely, yeah, it really is, and it's going to

522
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,200
go across the various different regions as well. So even

523
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,799
when we look at the US, we're extremely well supplied

524
00:31:36,799 --> 00:31:39,839
because we refined sixteen seventeen million barrels a day here,

525
00:31:40,319 --> 00:31:43,000
but we are seeing jet fuel exports out of the

526
00:31:43,079 --> 00:31:46,319
US increasing. They are being pulled into Europe because Europe

527
00:31:46,359 --> 00:31:48,920
cannot get jet fuel from the Middle East. It's the

528
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,880
same on the diesel side of things. We are seeing

529
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,640
more diesel going into Africa, into Australia from the US

530
00:31:54,839 --> 00:31:57,039
because they are struggling to get it in the same

531
00:31:57,079 --> 00:31:59,799
as kind of like Knapp the blending components who seeing

532
00:31:59,799 --> 00:32:02,279
that ultuasier as well because they can't get it from

533
00:32:02,279 --> 00:32:04,440
the Middle East. And so while the US is well

534
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,440
supplied here, it is also getting all of its barrels

535
00:32:07,519 --> 00:32:10,559
being pulled out. Record US crewed exports were seen across

536
00:32:10,559 --> 00:32:11,000
the barrel.

537
00:32:11,279 --> 00:32:14,559
Speaker 2: So if we are exporting a lot of our oil

538
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:18,119
and gas and fuel and jet fuel, is that going

539
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,720
to leave us dry? And what he's implying is yes,

540
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,480
it will affect us. I can't imagine the President is

541
00:32:25,519 --> 00:32:29,160
going to allow that to continue to happen. But the

542
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,279
demand around the world and the price they're willing to

543
00:32:32,319 --> 00:32:35,440
pay will put a lot of pressure on the US

544
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:36,359
to keep exporting.

545
00:32:36,559 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 9: It is just simply that they will pay up for

546
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,559
these products because they can't get them from elsewhere, and

547
00:32:42,599 --> 00:32:45,480
so that just means that domestic prices in the US

548
00:32:45,519 --> 00:32:48,400
are going to be going higher here. So it's problematic

549
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:49,200
across the border.

550
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 2: So at what point does Matt think that we will

551
00:32:52,759 --> 00:32:57,559
get demand destruction that the price gets so high that

552
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,440
people just keep Well, they're already starting to cut back,

553
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,640
but even more so in the future.

554
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 9: The whole dynamics of all prices have changed over the

555
00:33:06,559 --> 00:33:08,839
last two months. Here, you know, the forward curve is

556
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,359
still very undervalued because what was going to happen once

557
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,920
if as and when this gets resolved this issue, right,

558
00:33:15,079 --> 00:33:17,079
you're going to see certain countries that are going to

559
00:33:17,119 --> 00:33:20,119
be building inventories whereas they didn't have them before, so

560
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,839
they never get caught short again. So that means they're

561
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,400
going to see incredmental demand after this is all finished.

562
00:33:25,559 --> 00:33:28,759
But in terms of the demand side destruction a demand

563
00:33:28,839 --> 00:33:31,880
side of things, you know, it's because these refineries simply

564
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,119
cannot get those products to be able to produce them.

565
00:33:34,519 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: So before the anchors finished asking him questions about oil

566
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,039
and gas, one of them wanted to know about he

567
00:33:41,079 --> 00:33:45,240
has a trip planned this summer to Europe and asked,

568
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:49,759
what are the chances of me being able to travel.

569
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 9: But for June or for August?

570
00:33:50,759 --> 00:33:53,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, what do you think I'd be a little concerned?

571
00:33:53,359 --> 00:33:55,359
Speaker 9: Yeah, if you were saying Asia I'd be more worried.

572
00:33:55,359 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 2: But you think the airlines are going to cancel it

573
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,519
out right? I think we're going to get to that point.

574
00:33:59,599 --> 00:34:00,759
Speaker 9: Yeah?

575
00:34:00,799 --> 00:34:06,279
Speaker 2: Wow, yeah wow? Is the offered a word? Wow? What

576
00:34:06,359 --> 00:34:10,159
can you say? So if you have this guy had

577
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,079
had travel plans somewhere between June and what do you say,

578
00:34:13,159 --> 00:34:16,880
June in August and Matt Smith says there's a good

579
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:21,960
chance your flight will be canceled. All right, let's Wall

580
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:26,360
Street wasn't canceled today. Let's see what the traders did.

581
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:28,719
And they don't seem to be too worried about all

582
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:33,119
this because they just keep pushing the markets higher. The

583
00:34:33,159 --> 00:34:37,119
Dow Jones industrials up three hundred and fifty six to

584
00:34:37,199 --> 00:34:40,320
close at forty nine thousand, two ninety eight, the S

585
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,679
and P five hundred, a new record, up fifty eight points,

586
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:47,480
the Nasdaq a new record, up two hundred and fifty

587
00:34:47,519 --> 00:34:51,159
eight points, the price of gold up thirty two dollars

588
00:34:51,159 --> 00:34:54,920
to four thousand and five sixty five, and oil. A

589
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:58,360
lot of that bullishness on stocks was because oil prices

590
00:34:59,119 --> 00:35:03,159
went lower on the Commodities Exchange today. West Texas Intermediate

591
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:07,119
down four dollars a barrel down to one hundred and

592
00:35:07,119 --> 00:35:11,280
two dollars for one of those oily barrels. That's it

593
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:14,320
for today. Thank you for coming by. We will be

594
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,599
back again tomorrow and I hope to see you then