WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.160 --> 00:00:05.839 Meaning a live man like this man letting butterfly, flatting 2 00:00:05.879 --> 00:00:07.960 and wing big down in the forest. Man, it gonna 3 00:00:07.960 --> 00:00:10.880 cause a tree fall, letting five thousand miles away. 4 00:00:10.919 --> 00:00:18.559 Man, nobody see nobody else. See you don't need no 5 00:00:18.879 --> 00:00:22.679 man like you followed another story and you got directed 6 00:00:22.719 --> 00:00:25.679 for like that. That's when man don't eat and dag 7 00:00:25.760 --> 00:00:36.520 on the panel. Man matter? Man? All right? 8 00:00:37.119 --> 00:00:42.320 Ron Dodson, back from my court mandated U weekly discussion 9 00:00:42.359 --> 00:00:43.119 on the Iran War. 10 00:00:43.159 --> 00:00:45.640 How are you doing, man, I'm doing pretty good all 11 00:00:45.679 --> 00:00:46.359 things consider. 12 00:00:47.840 --> 00:00:51.920 Yeah, I obviously, just to speak at a sort of 13 00:00:51.920 --> 00:00:56.840 a broader level, big picture, I understand both sides with 14 00:00:56.880 --> 00:01:00.960 regards to discussions of Iran, between people on one side 15 00:01:00.960 --> 00:01:04.439 who say, this is clearly, you know, a massive pressing issue. 16 00:01:04.519 --> 00:01:07.159 It is the news and has been for five weeks. 17 00:01:07.719 --> 00:01:10.120 And alternately, I understand why people are sick of it. 18 00:01:10.519 --> 00:01:12.760 I myself, to a certain degree, I am sick of it, 19 00:01:13.200 --> 00:01:18.760 and so obviously I'm having rawn on to discuss a 20 00:01:18.799 --> 00:01:22.400 particular piece of that. This is perhaps a more broad 21 00:01:22.640 --> 00:01:26.200 topic relevant to this war and our ongoing relations with Iran. 22 00:01:26.439 --> 00:01:29.239 But I sort of joked when we started, I'm not 23 00:01:29.239 --> 00:01:31.319 going to go overboard. I think about one show a 24 00:01:31.319 --> 00:01:33.799 week at least for the duration of this war is 25 00:01:33.840 --> 00:01:38.799 probably warranted. But ron with all that said, great to 26 00:01:38.840 --> 00:01:40.599 have you back on. And what are we going to 27 00:01:40.680 --> 00:01:41.200 launch into. 28 00:01:42.519 --> 00:01:46.959 Well, I want to talk today about the the what 29 00:01:47.079 --> 00:01:53.640 I call the nuclear developmental ladder and nuclear proliferation more broadly. 30 00:01:54.560 --> 00:01:58.879 The purpose of that being so that not so that 31 00:01:59.079 --> 00:02:02.719 suddenly we can all be a bunch of experts in 32 00:02:03.719 --> 00:02:06.959 a very technical area, but so that we can have 33 00:02:07.760 --> 00:02:12.879 we can know when we're being manipulated by the heralds 34 00:02:12.919 --> 00:02:16.000 of the day, so to speak. Uh. And so there's 35 00:02:16.360 --> 00:02:20.039 there's some I think this is a pretty balanced message. 36 00:02:20.039 --> 00:02:25.280 Actually there's hopefully at the end we'll see Okay, maybe 37 00:02:25.280 --> 00:02:28.680 there's some reason here. But also there's a whole lot 38 00:02:28.719 --> 00:02:35.319 of misconceptions about nuclear development cycles that just need to 39 00:02:35.319 --> 00:02:39.400 be dealt with and in a way that that we 40 00:02:39.439 --> 00:02:42.400 can all just get a firm grasp of when are 41 00:02:42.400 --> 00:02:46.280 we being when are we being led carrot and stick? 42 00:02:46.800 --> 00:02:51.000 Because that's not that doesn't make for good voters, good 43 00:02:51.879 --> 00:02:56.159 Twitter posters, for folks having a just maybe an informed 44 00:02:56.199 --> 00:02:59.000 conversation with your wife and kids or the guy that 45 00:02:59.039 --> 00:03:02.000 you work with. So that's kind of the point today 46 00:03:02.039 --> 00:03:08.159 is let's try to demystify and de mythify some of 47 00:03:08.199 --> 00:03:11.120 these this nuclear weapons thing. 48 00:03:13.439 --> 00:03:17.919 Yeah, so just today or yesterday, I'm not entirely sure. 49 00:03:17.919 --> 00:03:21.560 When the video dropped, Marco Rubio put out a brief 50 00:03:21.639 --> 00:03:26.400 two minute video explaining, which you know, it's sort of astounding, 51 00:03:26.439 --> 00:03:29.639 we've gotten five weeks and this is only now happening. 52 00:03:30.439 --> 00:03:33.680 Why we are at war with i ran The stated purpose, 53 00:03:33.719 --> 00:03:37.960 we'll say, which is, effectively, we don't want Iran to 54 00:03:39.080 --> 00:03:43.520 have a large enough conventional armory that they can shield 55 00:03:43.599 --> 00:03:47.960 themselves long enough to construct a nuclear one. And therefore 56 00:03:48.120 --> 00:03:50.759 that is why we are at war with a rant 57 00:03:51.120 --> 00:03:55.439 to prevent them from becoming a sort of middle eastern 58 00:03:55.680 --> 00:04:01.080 North Korea. Now, there are several things there. One, it 59 00:04:01.199 --> 00:04:07.479 assumes that we we could do such a thing, right, 60 00:04:07.520 --> 00:04:10.759 we'll set that aside. But also it assumes that the 61 00:04:10.800 --> 00:04:16.600 Iranians have for a long time been pushing for nuclear weapons, 62 00:04:16.879 --> 00:04:20.759 and as you know, Vamp said, nuclear weapons that could 63 00:04:20.759 --> 00:04:22.839 be miniaturized to such a degree that they could be 64 00:04:22.920 --> 00:04:26.920 smuggled into the US, detonated as a suicide bomb, or alternately, 65 00:04:27.279 --> 00:04:30.800 you know, fire rained down from the sky, right, intercontinists, 66 00:04:30.959 --> 00:04:37.560 intercontinental nuclear ballistic missiles, the really scary stuff. So obviously, 67 00:04:37.600 --> 00:04:40.920 the Iranian nuclear program has been in the news for 68 00:04:41.000 --> 00:04:44.199 much longer than that, certainly going back to the Obama era. 69 00:04:44.360 --> 00:04:48.240 But let's be honest, we destroyed or were told that 70 00:04:48.279 --> 00:04:51.319 we destroyed Iran's nuclear sites less than a year ago. 71 00:04:52.199 --> 00:04:56.720 So ron for the thinking man, where do we start 72 00:04:56.759 --> 00:04:57.000 with this? 73 00:04:57.439 --> 00:04:57.600 Right? 74 00:04:57.639 --> 00:04:59.720 What are you know? The facts as we as we 75 00:04:59.759 --> 00:05:01.040 can sort of verify it. 76 00:05:01.439 --> 00:05:04.879 Well, let's let's just take it from Let's just go 77 00:05:04.959 --> 00:05:06.920 through kind of the chain. And for first of all, 78 00:05:07.279 --> 00:05:09.720 I think you can admit, and a guy on the 79 00:05:09.800 --> 00:05:14.279 right can admit, yes, a crude nuclear device maybe within 80 00:05:14.319 --> 00:05:17.720 the reach of a state like i Ran, but a reliable, 81 00:05:18.360 --> 00:05:22.439 deliverable nuclear weapon is a product of a really a 82 00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:30.120 far more demanding chain of engineering, testing and integration than most, 83 00:05:30.160 --> 00:05:34.600 if not all, the public discussion acknowledges. So that's kind 84 00:05:34.680 --> 00:05:39.959 of so what does that mean? Well, so you really 85 00:05:40.000 --> 00:05:44.680 have to go from or to deliverable weapon, and what 86 00:05:44.720 --> 00:05:48.600 does that require? And what happens is in the in 87 00:05:48.680 --> 00:05:54.680 the in the in the popular level, you know discussion, 88 00:05:54.759 --> 00:05:58.560 the Fox News discussion, we equate those two things and 89 00:05:58.600 --> 00:06:05.199 there's a huge difference between or yellow cake and a 90 00:06:05.399 --> 00:06:08.199 W eighty seven or W eighty eight. Those are our 91 00:06:08.879 --> 00:06:13.240 kind of our thermonuclear there's a it's from here to 92 00:06:13.279 --> 00:06:16.759 the moon from there, So what does that mean? So 93 00:06:18.120 --> 00:06:21.480 the the claim that you hear on TV is nuclear 94 00:06:21.519 --> 00:06:25.279 weapons are a flip a switch that you flip, and 95 00:06:25.319 --> 00:06:28.519 that's not true. It's a ladder that you climb, and 96 00:06:28.959 --> 00:06:37.160 it's it's it's like the concave climbing wall. Every every 97 00:06:37.160 --> 00:06:42.120 next handhold gets exponentially harder as one who is a 98 00:06:42.160 --> 00:06:47.319 horrific climber. This is why I picked that. Uh, you know, 99 00:06:47.600 --> 00:06:49.199 I I can kind of do the ones that are 100 00:06:49.360 --> 00:06:52.240 kind of slope the way I like, you know, I'm 101 00:06:52.519 --> 00:06:56.079 i'm I'm. I'm shocked at the spider monkeys that can 102 00:06:56.360 --> 00:06:59.839 climb that. And the question is Iran a spider monkey? 103 00:07:00.279 --> 00:07:03.720 And no, the answer is no. So what are the 104 00:07:04.480 --> 00:07:07.240 What are the stages? So you can think of it 105 00:07:07.439 --> 00:07:11.439 kind of in five broad stages, and there's some intermediate steps. 106 00:07:11.480 --> 00:07:13.560 But again, our job here is not to make us 107 00:07:13.600 --> 00:07:16.519 all experts. Our job here is to get informed. So 108 00:07:16.560 --> 00:07:20.839 Stage one is resource acquisition uranium. Iran's great with that, 109 00:07:20.959 --> 00:07:24.079 they've got three or four sites. Uranium is not a 110 00:07:24.279 --> 00:07:29.759 rare earth element, it is it is relatively plentiful in 111 00:07:29.800 --> 00:07:32.439 the Earth's crust. You just got to go dig and 112 00:07:32.600 --> 00:07:38.480 process it. And they they have and and so they've 113 00:07:38.519 --> 00:07:42.600 got plenty of uranium domestically and that's not going to change. 114 00:07:42.839 --> 00:07:47.720 And honestly, that's not a huge deal. Now we get 115 00:07:47.759 --> 00:07:50.920 to the real stuff, conversion and enrichment. So what does 116 00:07:50.959 --> 00:07:54.720 conversion mean. Conversion means you've taken it from or into 117 00:07:54.800 --> 00:08:01.639 a form. You combine uranium with fluoride and so it 118 00:08:01.720 --> 00:08:09.519 becomes this this new molecule that is easily turned into 119 00:08:09.600 --> 00:08:13.519 a gas. So at about fifty degrees celsius, you can 120 00:08:14.120 --> 00:08:20.519 that that uh, that combination of uranium and fluoride becomes 121 00:08:20.560 --> 00:08:24.600 a gas. And now you can enrich it via centerfuge. 122 00:08:25.160 --> 00:08:30.120 So how does we'll get into the indo because that's 123 00:08:30.160 --> 00:08:32.320 where a lot of the talk comes in, is in 124 00:08:32.360 --> 00:08:34.600 this centerfuge deal. And we'll explain that a little bit 125 00:08:34.639 --> 00:08:37.279 again without getting too technical and without a bunch of 126 00:08:37.320 --> 00:08:40.360 pictures and all that kind of thing. We'll describe that. 127 00:08:40.480 --> 00:08:44.919 So that's stage two conversion enrichment. Stage three is weaponization. 128 00:08:45.200 --> 00:08:48.559 So that's where you develop a what's called the physics package. 129 00:08:49.039 --> 00:08:52.159 And that's not just the pit or the part that explodes, 130 00:08:52.200 --> 00:08:55.039 but all the stuff that goes around it that helps 131 00:08:55.080 --> 00:08:58.120 it explode. And then you have stage four, which is 132 00:08:58.159 --> 00:09:02.360 testing in validation, and then STAY five delivery system integration. 133 00:09:03.600 --> 00:09:08.159 Iran is at stage two. Okay, So those other three 134 00:09:08.200 --> 00:09:13.399 stages are orders of magnitude harder beyond a certain kind 135 00:09:13.440 --> 00:09:17.440 of first elementary step, and we'll talk about that. Okay, 136 00:09:17.519 --> 00:09:23.039 So stage one uranium. It's necessary, but it's trivial for 137 00:09:23.159 --> 00:09:28.240 iran because uranium's not rare mining and milling that these 138 00:09:28.240 --> 00:09:32.919 are industrial processes. It's not exotic and yellow cake and 139 00:09:33.039 --> 00:09:36.639 yellow cake. It's it's yellow to our eyes and powdery. 140 00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:39.159 You've seen pictures. You can go google it right now 141 00:09:39.159 --> 00:09:42.360 and see what it looks like. That's try let me 142 00:09:42.360 --> 00:09:47.559 see if I can remember this. Try uranium octo oxide. 143 00:09:49.399 --> 00:09:54.039 It's it's eight oxygen atoms and three uranium app or 144 00:09:54.200 --> 00:09:58.440 uranium atoms, and so you're oxidizing uranium to make this 145 00:09:58.559 --> 00:10:01.000 yellow cake, and that's just makes it stable. And then 146 00:10:01.039 --> 00:10:06.480 that's not a weapons material. And so in the Earth, uranium, 147 00:10:06.519 --> 00:10:14.000 which again is plentiful but ninety ninety nine point three 148 00:10:14.159 --> 00:10:18.600 percent of it is uranium two thirty eight and only 149 00:10:18.720 --> 00:10:23.320 a point seven percent of it naturally occurring in the 150 00:10:23.320 --> 00:10:26.039 ores called pitch blend. Maybe you've heard of that before 151 00:10:26.279 --> 00:10:30.879 in your high school, uh, you know your high school 152 00:10:30.919 --> 00:10:35.159 science class. Only seven percent of that is uranium two 153 00:10:35.200 --> 00:10:38.759 thirty five and uranium two thirty five. These different versions 154 00:10:38.799 --> 00:10:42.440 of the same element are called isotopes. Uranium two thirty 155 00:10:42.480 --> 00:10:46.799 five is the one that is able to sustain a 156 00:10:48.000 --> 00:10:51.240 nuclear reaction. So you have to end That's why you 157 00:10:51.240 --> 00:10:55.360 have to enrich. Okay, so you have to get that 158 00:10:55.679 --> 00:10:58.360 and you have to get that natural two thirty five 159 00:10:58.519 --> 00:11:03.519 point seven up to eighty between eighty and ninety five percent, 160 00:11:03.559 --> 00:11:07.399 and in order for it to be weapons grade. And 161 00:11:07.480 --> 00:11:12.360 so right now, Iran has I think the latest numbers 162 00:11:12.360 --> 00:11:15.279 are about four hundred and fifty kilograms. We don't know 163 00:11:15.320 --> 00:11:18.399 how much of this is accessible. About four hundred and 164 00:11:18.440 --> 00:11:23.240 fifty kilograms that's enriched to the sixty percent mark, so 165 00:11:23.360 --> 00:11:27.840 not weapons grade. But to be fair, that distance between 166 00:11:27.879 --> 00:11:33.720 sixty and eighty to ninety percent is doable in the 167 00:11:34.279 --> 00:11:38.120 in the not long term. If they have in this 168 00:11:38.240 --> 00:11:42.919 why well we'll talk about how that happens. So having uranium, 169 00:11:42.919 --> 00:11:45.000 here's what you need to think of. Here's your big picture. 170 00:11:45.080 --> 00:11:48.320 Having uranium is like having crude oil. It tells you 171 00:11:48.399 --> 00:11:51.360 nothing about whether or not you can build a Ferrari, 172 00:11:51.759 --> 00:11:55.320 you know, a V eight engine, much less a jet engine. Okay, 173 00:11:55.399 --> 00:11:58.799 you might be able to build a very simple two 174 00:11:58.840 --> 00:12:01.960 stroke engine. And that's kind of where Iran is. And 175 00:12:02.000 --> 00:12:05.879 we'll talk about what that analog device is. And stop 176 00:12:05.919 --> 00:12:07.799 me at any point if you have any questions, Jay, 177 00:12:07.840 --> 00:12:08.919 because this is. 178 00:12:10.759 --> 00:12:10.879 Uh. 179 00:12:11.600 --> 00:12:13.799 I don't want to. I don't want to, you know, 180 00:12:14.039 --> 00:12:17.440 just completely overload listeners without any breaks. 181 00:12:17.679 --> 00:12:21.159 But so forgive me if this is too far outside 182 00:12:21.200 --> 00:12:23.559 the scope of what you want to talk about. But 183 00:12:23.639 --> 00:12:29.080 I think it's important to understand, well, why is Iran 184 00:12:30.000 --> 00:12:31.120 enriching uranium? 185 00:12:31.480 --> 00:12:31.639 Right? 186 00:12:31.639 --> 00:12:33.679 Are they only doing it so they can usher in 187 00:12:33.720 --> 00:12:36.440 an apocalypse so that they can, you know, turn Los 188 00:12:36.440 --> 00:12:38.840 Angeles into a smoking crater or is there a legitimate 189 00:12:38.879 --> 00:12:39.759 reason to go about that. 190 00:12:40.440 --> 00:12:45.919 Well, there's kind of a legitimate reason. So number one, 191 00:12:46.360 --> 00:12:52.399 Iran with the help of the Russians, And that sounds scary, 192 00:12:52.919 --> 00:12:57.320 but it's really not. The Russians don't want nuclear proliferation 193 00:12:57.559 --> 00:13:01.840 anymore than we do. So. But Iran wanted the ability 194 00:13:01.919 --> 00:13:09.200 to power their country via cleanly with with with nuclear plants, 195 00:13:09.639 --> 00:13:14.519 so Russia helped them, uh fuel fuel their plants. But 196 00:13:14.600 --> 00:13:17.320 other than other than that one plant, and they have 197 00:13:17.440 --> 00:13:20.840 several uh or have I don't know what the state 198 00:13:20.960 --> 00:13:24.440 status of them is right now, you know, uh, real 199 00:13:24.519 --> 00:13:28.200 quick sidebar. Traditionally, when we've gone to war, we've had 200 00:13:28.559 --> 00:13:33.799 press embedded in you know, Vietnam, World War two, uh, 201 00:13:33.919 --> 00:13:38.639 the Iraq War one and two, we had press embedded 202 00:13:38.639 --> 00:13:41.679 in the and and that's kind of a normal thing. 203 00:13:41.759 --> 00:13:44.919 We've got nothing now. Part of that is it's hard 204 00:13:44.960 --> 00:13:47.840 to do you embed in in on the you know, 205 00:13:48.000 --> 00:13:51.879 on an aircraft carrier at the bases and stuff. You know. 206 00:13:52.759 --> 00:13:55.200 But the fact that we don't have any on site 207 00:13:55.279 --> 00:13:58.240 press coverage, we're having to rely on a bunch of 208 00:13:58.360 --> 00:14:05.879 uh uh you know, ocent feeds is a little bit 209 00:14:05.960 --> 00:14:10.360 problematic to me. But anyway, so they do have So 210 00:14:10.879 --> 00:14:12.759 you do need to enrich in order to get to 211 00:14:12.960 --> 00:14:18.639 medical uranium. That's twenty about twenty percent. And you do 212 00:14:18.720 --> 00:14:22.559 need to enrich to get to a nuclear fuel in 213 00:14:22.600 --> 00:14:25.200 the sense for a power plant, but that's about five 214 00:14:25.279 --> 00:14:30.720 to seven percent depending on the design. Older designs require 215 00:14:30.759 --> 00:14:34.519 a higher like the the graphite reactors. As I understand it, 216 00:14:34.559 --> 00:14:38.360 the Russian designs needed a higher level of enrichment in 217 00:14:38.440 --> 00:14:45.919 order to maintain a chain reaction. So anyway, the reason 218 00:14:45.960 --> 00:14:48.639 they've enriched to sixty percent is so that they can 219 00:14:48.759 --> 00:14:52.320 have and this is the and I consider this kind 220 00:14:52.360 --> 00:14:55.360 of legitimate, is so that they can have a bargaining 221 00:14:55.480 --> 00:14:58.440 chip in order to get out of the sanctions regime. 222 00:14:58.799 --> 00:15:02.799 And they have offered repeatedly. They're they're now deceased Supreme 223 00:15:02.919 --> 00:15:09.000 Leader Patata Fatwah against nuclear weapons development. Uh. And it 224 00:15:09.039 --> 00:15:12.080 has long been the Iranian position that they would submit 225 00:15:12.279 --> 00:15:17.279 to I a e A inspections upon removal of sanctions. 226 00:15:17.960 --> 00:15:20.799 This seems like a complex. A no brainer to me 227 00:15:21.519 --> 00:15:25.240 is why why would we not want a pro if 228 00:15:25.440 --> 00:15:29.039 and even for the neocons. Honestly, let's take the neocon position. 229 00:15:30.480 --> 00:15:37.120 The neocon position, you know, says prosperity equals democracy equals 230 00:15:37.320 --> 00:15:40.679 let's get along with our neighbors, you know, prosperity in trade, 231 00:15:41.320 --> 00:15:46.679 you know, forget the cosmopolitan byproducts of that. But but 232 00:15:47.200 --> 00:15:51.000 it seems to me for the longest time, and Obama 233 00:15:51.039 --> 00:15:54.240 this swhere. You know, we make fun of Obama's palettes 234 00:15:54.240 --> 00:15:58.759 of cash, but uh, I think Obama. You could make 235 00:15:58.759 --> 00:16:02.840 the argument Obama hand the Iranians pretty well. They didn't 236 00:16:02.879 --> 00:16:06.039 cause any problems. They kept in their lane, they didn't 237 00:16:06.080 --> 00:16:08.840 cause any issues with it. They weren't threatening to send 238 00:16:08.919 --> 00:16:12.840 missiles all this stuff. So, you know, far be it 239 00:16:12.879 --> 00:16:16.240 for me to praise one of the worst presidents we've 240 00:16:16.240 --> 00:16:20.600 ever had, Barack Hassean Obama. But uh, I think he 241 00:16:20.720 --> 00:16:23.519 handled the Iranians in a you know, at least you 242 00:16:23.559 --> 00:16:26.799 can argue a rational way. But it's always been their position. 243 00:16:26.879 --> 00:16:29.000 We don't want nuclear weapons, but we do want out 244 00:16:29.000 --> 00:16:33.559 of this long term. We're a Shia nation. You need 245 00:16:33.600 --> 00:16:35.559 to get over it. That's what we are. We self 246 00:16:35.559 --> 00:16:40.039 identify as that uh you know, and until you quit, 247 00:16:40.519 --> 00:16:43.360 get us off the sanctioned regime. UH, We're going to 248 00:16:43.480 --> 00:16:50.159 keep this enrichment capability. The problem with the Iranians has 249 00:16:50.200 --> 00:16:53.559 been uh and to jump ahead a little bit, is 250 00:16:54.000 --> 00:16:58.480 that they have used their oil proceeds to fund uh 251 00:16:58.639 --> 00:17:05.759 you know, uh hamas uh uh uh some terrorism that 252 00:17:05.759 --> 00:17:10.839 that uh that tends to uh harass our most beloved 253 00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:16.160 and trusted ally in the Middle East. So and we 254 00:17:16.319 --> 00:17:21.119 have long there's a sense in which, you know, the 255 00:17:21.119 --> 00:17:25.000 the realist or the classical realists says, is it good 256 00:17:25.079 --> 00:17:28.759 in a balance of power situation to have one actor 257 00:17:28.920 --> 00:17:31.519 have that much control over one of the world's most 258 00:17:31.599 --> 00:17:35.640 valuable choke points? What are you going to do about it? Though? 259 00:17:35.680 --> 00:17:38.039 That's the question, And that's a little bit beyond the 260 00:17:38.039 --> 00:17:40.400 scope of what I want to talk about, because we 261 00:17:40.400 --> 00:17:42.720 were told that one of the main reasons we were 262 00:17:42.720 --> 00:17:46.400 going to war is because they had two weeks towards 263 00:17:46.440 --> 00:17:49.759 reigning down hell fire on the world. And that's what 264 00:17:49.839 --> 00:17:52.240 I want to mainly deal with. And if you want 265 00:17:52.279 --> 00:17:54.119 to talk about some of that other stuff, that's fine too. 266 00:17:55.799 --> 00:18:00.759 So does that sorry even answer answer were but sorry 267 00:18:00.759 --> 00:18:02.680 I interrupted you. We were moving up. 268 00:18:03.519 --> 00:18:06.400 So moving up to change, so, so just real quick, 269 00:18:06.440 --> 00:18:10.640 so remember Iran is not dependent upon an external uranium supply, 270 00:18:10.839 --> 00:18:15.519 So no level of sanctions, no level of anything other 271 00:18:15.599 --> 00:18:19.920 than literally taking the country over, is going to change that. 272 00:18:20.319 --> 00:18:25.000 They are always going to have access to uranium. Uh, 273 00:18:25.440 --> 00:18:30.359 so they can internalize the entire fuel cycle. This is 274 00:18:30.400 --> 00:18:34.519 why enrichment exists, existed to the in the first place, 275 00:18:34.960 --> 00:18:38.160 and that's why, uh, you're not going to be able 276 00:18:38.200 --> 00:18:43.240 to completely ever do away with that. So I don't 277 00:18:43.279 --> 00:18:48.440 know if y'all are concerned with the how the uranium 278 00:18:48.559 --> 00:18:51.440 enrichment process works, I'm going to be very very brief. 279 00:18:51.799 --> 00:18:57.000 You convert the this uranium oxid oxidation, you know, the 280 00:18:57.119 --> 00:19:00.920 U three eight, You convert that to a process to 281 00:19:02.039 --> 00:19:08.359 this uranium hexafluoride. That's that's the enrichment stuff. You use 282 00:19:08.480 --> 00:19:11.920 gas centerfuge. You heat it up so that it sublimates, 283 00:19:12.200 --> 00:19:16.039 it becomes a gas, and then you have a series 284 00:19:16.279 --> 00:19:18.960 of these gas centrifuges, and all they are is you 285 00:19:19.039 --> 00:19:24.119 put the gas in this long cylinder that has basically 286 00:19:24.200 --> 00:19:27.000 kind of a weather van kind of thing inside that 287 00:19:27.240 --> 00:19:31.880 spins it up really really fast. And because two thirty 288 00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:36.000 eight the isotope, that doesn't do much for us for 289 00:19:36.400 --> 00:19:41.279 enrichment because it's just a tiny bit heavier, it moves 290 00:19:41.319 --> 00:19:44.839 to the outside in the two thirty five generally because 291 00:19:44.839 --> 00:19:49.519 it's lighter, stays in the middle. So you you you 292 00:19:49.559 --> 00:19:54.480 try to remove the center part of the centerfuge process 293 00:19:54.559 --> 00:19:58.039 while it's spinning. You remove that you tube thirty five, 294 00:19:58.160 --> 00:20:00.920 and each stage just is a to nine amount more 295 00:20:00.960 --> 00:20:04.759 pure and it's a cascade. So you'll have two hundred 296 00:20:04.799 --> 00:20:07.640 of these centrifuges in a row row, kind of like 297 00:20:08.000 --> 00:20:13.039 daisy chained hot water heaters, but skinnier. And so as 298 00:20:13.079 --> 00:20:17.039 it's taking out that you're putting it into a new centerfuge, 299 00:20:17.039 --> 00:20:20.279 and it's spinning it up. In every stage you get 300 00:20:20.279 --> 00:20:23.200 a little bit more of the two thirty five versus 301 00:20:23.240 --> 00:20:26.640 the two thirty eight. So that's how centrifuges work. This 302 00:20:26.720 --> 00:20:32.079 is what was destroyed by a work of the CIA 303 00:20:32.160 --> 00:20:37.079 and Masade when the stucks Net program was put in. 304 00:20:37.119 --> 00:20:40.480 And these are the the older versions of the centrifuges 305 00:20:40.519 --> 00:20:45.279 were Semens run by Siemens controllers. Semens is a German 306 00:20:45.279 --> 00:20:52.680 electronics giant, and uh so these these centrifuges had Semens controllers. 307 00:20:53.119 --> 00:20:56.559 Stuck's Net was a program that infected the Semens controllers 308 00:20:56.880 --> 00:20:59.640 to while they were spinning to stop and start them, 309 00:20:59.680 --> 00:21:04.200 which would like a dryer that has way too many 310 00:21:04.240 --> 00:21:07.880 towels on one side, they would get unbalanced and tear 311 00:21:07.920 --> 00:21:13.000 themselves apart. Amazingly effective. Uh and uh kind of a 312 00:21:13.039 --> 00:21:16.759 brilliant look. You got to give those the the Israelis. 313 00:21:16.799 --> 00:21:19.079 We know the Israelis were behind part of it because 314 00:21:19.400 --> 00:21:23.720 that stuck'snet code but was actually released. People found it. 315 00:21:23.759 --> 00:21:30.039 The way it propagated was through through broad propagation, and 316 00:21:29.680 --> 00:21:34.880 the source code had Miritis in it. Miritus is uh. 317 00:21:34.920 --> 00:21:37.839 If you go back to your Book of Esther, Esther 318 00:21:38.359 --> 00:21:43.400 is myrtle Latin for esther is is miritis. And so anyway, 319 00:21:43.880 --> 00:21:47.720 the Book of Esther takes place in Persia. So that's 320 00:21:47.759 --> 00:21:53.200 how we knew Masad was in on the game. Anyway. Okay, 321 00:21:53.200 --> 00:21:59.240 so you've got enrichment. What happens after enrichment, well, uh, 322 00:22:00.079 --> 00:22:06.000 you you so to close that loop? Uh, Iran has 323 00:22:06.519 --> 00:22:10.640 the capability at varying enriched, varying enrichment levels. But we 324 00:22:10.759 --> 00:22:15.519 don't know what is left of these of these centrifuge 325 00:22:15.680 --> 00:22:19.400 enrichment cascades. We don't We did bomb their system. These 326 00:22:19.440 --> 00:22:24.039 are not super robust. I mean, they're not like, you know, 327 00:22:24.960 --> 00:22:28.799 super fragile. But if if you you know, you can 328 00:22:28.920 --> 00:22:34.440 damage them or take them offline. If it does, it's 329 00:22:34.680 --> 00:22:38.039 that's not hard. If it's just a matter of getting 330 00:22:38.039 --> 00:22:40.720 to them because you you know, Iran's placed them in 331 00:22:40.880 --> 00:22:46.079 very secured areas. So that and again that leap from 332 00:22:46.119 --> 00:22:49.200 sixty percent enrichment to ninety percent in enrichment is smaller 333 00:22:49.200 --> 00:22:54.880 in effort, but it's it requires massive, massive cascade coordination. 334 00:22:55.319 --> 00:22:59.559 So anyway, so enrichment is where it's a way to 335 00:22:59.559 --> 00:23:04.799 think about that is enrichment is where physics meets industrial discipline. 336 00:23:04.839 --> 00:23:12.240 It's not brilliant or conceptually complicated. It just takes sustained competence. 337 00:23:12.799 --> 00:23:17.759 And so you know that's where again, that's where Iran is. 338 00:23:18.799 --> 00:23:21.279 Let's I'm going to skip ahead in my presentation because 339 00:23:21.279 --> 00:23:25.000 you don't I don't you know. There's there's the Basher. 340 00:23:25.119 --> 00:23:28.839 I'm just gonna mention there's the Basher power reactor that's 341 00:23:28.920 --> 00:23:31.680 low proliferation. That's the one the Russians built. That's the 342 00:23:31.720 --> 00:23:36.079 one that the Russians fuel and supply and maintain and 343 00:23:36.119 --> 00:23:38.519 remove the fuel. And they did that because they didn't 344 00:23:38.559 --> 00:23:41.920 want They said, look, we'll fuel this and we'll remove 345 00:23:41.960 --> 00:23:44.480 the fuel because we don't want you having plutonium because 346 00:23:44.519 --> 00:23:48.079 plutonium you can use if you enrich and then using 347 00:23:48.240 --> 00:23:51.680 rich fuel in a reactor, one of the byproducts can 348 00:23:51.799 --> 00:23:54.720 be plutonium. We don't want you having that, so we'll 349 00:23:54.720 --> 00:23:58.279 remove the fuel. Iran said, that's great. We get basically 350 00:23:58.359 --> 00:24:03.799 we get you're coming and we've got a service contract 351 00:24:03.799 --> 00:24:08.319 with you. Awesome, So that's not a viable path. The 352 00:24:08.359 --> 00:24:13.839 Tran Research reactor uses twenty percent enriched uranium that basically 353 00:24:13.880 --> 00:24:18.200 produces medical isotopes, which provides the justification to twenty percent. 354 00:24:18.839 --> 00:24:23.440 Can they use that twenty percent to jump start their chain? Yeah, 355 00:24:24.039 --> 00:24:29.720 but we've got twenty percent enrichment isotopes all over the US, 356 00:24:30.279 --> 00:24:35.079 you know, But that's is it an issue? Well? I 357 00:24:35.079 --> 00:24:42.519 mean yeah, but inspection fixes all this, right. So Obama 358 00:24:42.599 --> 00:24:46.119 tried to deal with this because the well and then 359 00:24:46.160 --> 00:24:50.519 you have the Iraq a raq A r Ak heavy 360 00:24:50.559 --> 00:24:53.519 water reactor and this is this one's kind of the 361 00:24:53.559 --> 00:24:57.960 problem because that's designed for natural uranium and heavy water 362 00:24:58.319 --> 00:25:03.240 and that's where you get plutonium. So that one's an issue. 363 00:25:03.359 --> 00:25:07.079 That's an issue. Neokon not neokan. This needs to be 364 00:25:07.359 --> 00:25:09.400 I think this this is the one you need to 365 00:25:09.440 --> 00:25:13.119 deal with. And Obama dealt with that under the JCPOA, 366 00:25:13.279 --> 00:25:18.319 the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that was the twenty 367 00:25:18.400 --> 00:25:23.920 fifteen agreement between Iran and the USA, UK, France, China, 368 00:25:24.240 --> 00:25:28.319 Russia and Germany, and that restricts their nuclear program in 369 00:25:28.359 --> 00:25:31.839 exchange for some sanctions relief. That's kind of in a 370 00:25:32.839 --> 00:25:39.000 This war has thrown that into a complete that's out 371 00:25:39.039 --> 00:25:43.119 the door right now. So you know, if you're gonna 372 00:25:43.119 --> 00:25:46.359 bomb us, we're not gonna. But so anyway, that was 373 00:25:46.400 --> 00:25:50.920 the one area where they submitted to IAEA inspections. So 374 00:25:51.839 --> 00:25:56.480 Iran in that case chose showed their good faith. Look, 375 00:25:56.720 --> 00:26:02.039 will you're worried about this reactor. We're subject to these 376 00:26:02.440 --> 00:26:05.920 uh i a e A inspection the i a e 377 00:26:06.039 --> 00:26:11.279 A Inspection regime here, So they showed good faith not 378 00:26:11.799 --> 00:26:15.160 to the You notice there's one nation that didn't sign 379 00:26:15.799 --> 00:26:22.400 that Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. So all right, so 380 00:26:22.720 --> 00:26:26.400 weapon weaponization. So now we've got we know how we enrich, 381 00:26:27.200 --> 00:26:29.279 we know how we mine, we know how we enrich. 382 00:26:29.880 --> 00:26:33.319 What do we do now? We want to create a weapon. 383 00:26:33.359 --> 00:26:38.920 This is where everybody said, this is where they are, Well, okay, 384 00:26:39.920 --> 00:26:43.440 could they there's there's there's two paths you take to 385 00:26:43.519 --> 00:26:47.079 making a nuclear weapon, well three paths, but but we'll 386 00:26:47.079 --> 00:26:49.359 put the third one aside for a bit. The first 387 00:26:49.440 --> 00:26:53.200 is a gun type of device, and this is one 388 00:26:53.279 --> 00:26:58.160 that if given the materials, you me and three or 389 00:26:58.200 --> 00:27:03.559 four guys and a really good machine shop, and if 390 00:27:03.599 --> 00:27:09.039 we had enough uranium, could possibly build one of these. Okay, 391 00:27:09.119 --> 00:27:13.440 this is not a complex it's a very complex from 392 00:27:12.680 --> 00:27:19.640 an engineering standpoint, it's not complex from a nuclear science standpoint. 393 00:27:19.960 --> 00:27:23.799 So what's the concept. Well, this is the bomb that 394 00:27:23.880 --> 00:27:27.480 was dropped on Hiroshima. Didn't need any testing. It was 395 00:27:27.640 --> 00:27:31.440 just a gun type of device. This was a Little Boy. 396 00:27:31.720 --> 00:27:36.960 And all you're doing is firing one subcritical mass into another. 397 00:27:38.119 --> 00:27:41.559 When you get enough uranium two thirty five together in 398 00:27:41.599 --> 00:27:46.000 a close mass that reaches what's called critical mass, and 399 00:27:46.079 --> 00:27:54.079 you get a sustained you get a sustained nuclear chain reaction, 400 00:27:54.519 --> 00:28:00.000 and if it's super critical, you get an explosive critical reaction. 401 00:28:00.880 --> 00:28:03.519