WEBVTT 1 00:00:03.439 --> 00:00:03.799 Taxi. 2 00:00:04.040 --> 00:00:10.080 I'm this is the seventy seven WABC Mini Cast. 3 00:00:11.240 --> 00:00:14.240 And we're delighted to bring back to the show one 4 00:00:14.240 --> 00:00:21.399 of the great experts on Europe and other international foreign 5 00:00:21.440 --> 00:00:24.519 policy topics, Peter Ruff, who's a senior Fellow at the 6 00:00:24.559 --> 00:00:29.199 Hudson Institute. He's the director of the Center on Europe 7 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:34.520 and Eurasia. Also previously served in the White House, and 8 00:00:34.600 --> 00:00:38.200 a noted commentator and an essayist himself. So let me 9 00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:41.759 let me just start giving you my thoughts on on 10 00:00:41.880 --> 00:00:44.079 this and I'll turn it over to Eric and Jesse 11 00:00:44.200 --> 00:00:47.479 and at this time I'll pick up Peter. I'm very 12 00:00:47.520 --> 00:00:53.359 concerned about the Russian war against Ukraine, and this all 13 00:00:53.399 --> 00:00:57.159 started because nobody challenged Russia when they made the move 14 00:00:57.520 --> 00:01:01.000 previously against Georgia or previously I don't mean george like 15 00:01:01.000 --> 00:01:05.400 in Atlanta Georgia. I mean Georgia and in Europe the 16 00:01:05.480 --> 00:01:09.840 move against Georgia and the piece and say, well, yeah, 17 00:01:10.200 --> 00:01:11.719 what do I know. That's why we have Peter on 18 00:01:12.200 --> 00:01:15.319 and they pick that up, and they pick up a 19 00:01:15.359 --> 00:01:19.959 piece of the Ukraine. Now, my view about world affears 20 00:01:20.079 --> 00:01:23.439 is you cannot reward aggression. You should not be in 21 00:01:23.480 --> 00:01:26.280 the business of appeasing aggression. This war has not going 22 00:01:26.359 --> 00:01:29.319 on for years and years and years. The body counts 23 00:01:29.359 --> 00:01:32.799 on both sides are enormously high. This is a war 24 00:01:32.840 --> 00:01:36.599 that never should have been fought. People underestimated the pathology 25 00:01:37.359 --> 00:01:40.719 of mister Putin, and it leads me to the concern 26 00:01:41.200 --> 00:01:43.799 how does this end? Because I keep rereading that the 27 00:01:43.879 --> 00:01:46.799 Ukraine is running out of defensive equipment to stop the 28 00:01:46.920 --> 00:01:50.719 barrage of the attacks against them. And is there a 29 00:01:50.840 --> 00:01:54.280 view inside of Russia that enough is enough and try 30 00:01:54.319 --> 00:01:59.760 to push Putin into place to stop this? So those 31 00:01:59.760 --> 00:02:04.000 are but now think about those questions and I'll turn 32 00:02:04.040 --> 00:02:04.920 it over to Eric now. 33 00:02:05.480 --> 00:02:07.760 So Peter, thanks for joining us. It's always great to 34 00:02:07.760 --> 00:02:08.759 hear your perspective. 35 00:02:09.759 --> 00:02:10.759 I think you'd be helpful. 36 00:02:10.759 --> 00:02:14.520 It's good to be on with such republican royalty. 37 00:02:15.080 --> 00:02:15.960 So thank you. 38 00:02:16.520 --> 00:02:18.400 And by the way, I'm the House Democrat with shock. 39 00:02:18.280 --> 00:02:23.360 And you're the most conservative one on the call. Anyway, 40 00:02:23.520 --> 00:02:26.199 So a lot of focus has been on Iran. We've 41 00:02:26.240 --> 00:02:28.479 been talking a lot about Iran everywhere we go in 42 00:02:28.520 --> 00:02:31.439 the you read the paper, on the radio, and news. 43 00:02:31.639 --> 00:02:35.120 Iran the war that seems to have been forgotten, which 44 00:02:35.159 --> 00:02:37.080 is of equal importance in my view, is the one 45 00:02:37.120 --> 00:02:40.360 in Ukraine, because it's actually all part of one war. 46 00:02:40.400 --> 00:02:42.159 You have the issue of the concerns in Taiwan, but 47 00:02:42.599 --> 00:02:45.719 Ukraine and Iran can't be separated because China, Russia and 48 00:02:45.759 --> 00:02:48.879 Iran can't be separated. But can you kind of give 49 00:02:48.919 --> 00:02:53.319 the audience, our listeners a update as to exactly where 50 00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:57.000 we are, what's transpired in the last year or so, 51 00:02:57.199 --> 00:02:59.599 and kind of what you have seen looking forward in 52 00:02:59.599 --> 00:03:00.000 the future. 53 00:03:01.280 --> 00:03:05.360 Sure, and I couldn't resist that oxymoron of Republican royalty 54 00:03:05.680 --> 00:03:09.080 given any consistent with one another. But to return to 55 00:03:09.120 --> 00:03:12.000 the issue at play, the war in Ukraine right now, 56 00:03:12.039 --> 00:03:14.360 I think we're really seeing what amounts to two battles 57 00:03:14.400 --> 00:03:17.439 taking place in a broader war. The first battle is 58 00:03:17.879 --> 00:03:20.919 what we can basically describe as the land war in 59 00:03:20.960 --> 00:03:24.080 the eastern part of Ukraine. This is what some of 60 00:03:24.080 --> 00:03:27.240 your listeners might have heard on TV or radio or 61 00:03:27.560 --> 00:03:30.560 read of the newspapers as a so called Dombas region 62 00:03:30.960 --> 00:03:35.599 of eastern Ukraine. It's a short form for the Donsque Basin, 63 00:03:35.639 --> 00:03:38.240 a blend of the river Donets and the word basin. 64 00:03:38.560 --> 00:03:40.879 This is a full rich area which powered Russia. Is 65 00:03:40.879 --> 00:03:45.639 industrialization the nineteenth century, and Vladimir Putin has formerly annexed 66 00:03:46.039 --> 00:03:48.639 the two states and Ukrainian, you would say, the old 67 00:03:48.680 --> 00:03:53.159 loss of Donetsk and lu Hansk that make up the Dombas, 68 00:03:53.599 --> 00:03:58.759 and the Russians have since intervening slowly surptitiously in twenty 69 00:03:58.759 --> 00:04:02.039 fourteen and then there very aggressively in twenty twenty two 70 00:04:02.159 --> 00:04:06.000 twenty twenty three, taken all of one of those two states, Luhansk, 71 00:04:06.479 --> 00:04:10.759 but the second, the state of Dunask, still is significantly 72 00:04:10.759 --> 00:04:13.840 controlled by the Ukrainians. Not just that, but they have 73 00:04:14.000 --> 00:04:17.800 their fortress belts established in that state because they've seen 74 00:04:17.800 --> 00:04:20.519 this coming since twenty fourteen. And other parts of Ukraine 75 00:04:20.560 --> 00:04:23.399 the defenses who are a little bit more ramshackle and improvised. 76 00:04:23.480 --> 00:04:27.319 But here there are cities that some of your listeners 77 00:04:27.399 --> 00:04:30.199 might also have heard of, like Slodyansko, Kramatrsk and any 78 00:04:30.240 --> 00:04:33.879 of that. Those are very heavily fortified defensive positions and 79 00:04:34.279 --> 00:04:36.560 the Russians are trying to ram their way forward and 80 00:04:36.600 --> 00:04:40.800 it's basically stalemated, which shouldn't confuse anyone. The operational tempo 81 00:04:40.879 --> 00:04:43.360 is still very very high, hundreds of engagements each day, 82 00:04:43.800 --> 00:04:47.079 and the Russians are losing based on public accounts and 83 00:04:47.160 --> 00:04:50.120 what our Director of CIA has testified and said publicly 84 00:04:50.800 --> 00:04:54.199 tens of thousands of troops per month trying to push forward. 85 00:04:54.240 --> 00:04:57.879 But because of the advances and drone warfare and other 86 00:04:57.959 --> 00:05:00.759 innovations on the battlefield, the Ukrainians put up a pretty 87 00:05:00.759 --> 00:05:03.879 formidable defense. And what everyone seems to be an agreement 88 00:05:03.879 --> 00:05:05.800 on is that the Russians are really going to struggle 89 00:05:06.319 --> 00:05:08.519 the remainder of this calendar year to make progress and 90 00:05:08.600 --> 00:05:11.079 to break their way through. But the second battle is 91 00:05:11.079 --> 00:05:14.000 the battle of the air war. And here again what 92 00:05:14.040 --> 00:05:15.959 some of your listeners might have seen on social media 93 00:05:16.000 --> 00:05:20.519 and elsewhere are these spectacular dueling strike campaigns. So on 94 00:05:20.560 --> 00:05:24.519 the one hand, the Ukrainians have innovative new forms of 95 00:05:24.560 --> 00:05:28.240 mid range strike where they're taking drones and firing them 96 00:05:28.279 --> 00:05:31.480 deep into the Russian Federation. They're also working on cruise 97 00:05:31.600 --> 00:05:35.040 missiles and now even blistic missile systems. The ballistic missiles 98 00:05:35.040 --> 00:05:37.759 aren't fielded, but they do have cruise missiles and they're 99 00:05:37.800 --> 00:05:43.240 striking deep into Russia, really downgrading Russian refinery capacity. They've 100 00:05:43.279 --> 00:05:47.040 also gone after kind of clever targets like what is 101 00:05:47.079 --> 00:05:51.079 the equivalent of Russia's amazon A delivery system, warehouses, and 102 00:05:51.160 --> 00:05:53.680 so the average Russia is beginning to feel that, and 103 00:05:53.720 --> 00:05:57.040 so they've really put a crimp into the Russian economy. 104 00:05:57.120 --> 00:05:59.480 There have been smoked at times, not often, but at 105 00:05:59.519 --> 00:06:02.120 times build lilying outside of Saint Petersburg and Moscow. So 106 00:06:02.160 --> 00:06:05.720 it's undeniable that this war is being brought home to 107 00:06:05.800 --> 00:06:08.639 roost a bit to the Russian people. But the counter 108 00:06:08.680 --> 00:06:10.959 to that is the Russians have kept up their rate 109 00:06:11.000 --> 00:06:15.000 of production of ballistic missiles, their own drone and Pruise 110 00:06:15.079 --> 00:06:18.920 missile swarms, and they are hammering Ukraine, and in particular 111 00:06:19.000 --> 00:06:23.560 the hammering Ukraine's big cities, and the Ukrainians have gotten 112 00:06:23.560 --> 00:06:27.040 pretty adept at taking out Russian drones. But the Ruvio 113 00:06:27.160 --> 00:06:29.839 is only one answer right now in the world to 114 00:06:30.079 --> 00:06:35.240 aeroblistic missile attacks, and those are Patriot interceptors which the 115 00:06:35.319 --> 00:06:38.639 United States produces. And as you just said, Eric, we're 116 00:06:38.639 --> 00:06:41.079 in the midst of the confrontation with the Uranians, which 117 00:06:41.279 --> 00:06:46.040 at times has run very hot, tilted into full scale war. 118 00:06:46.120 --> 00:06:48.240 At other times it's been a sort of a dance. 119 00:06:48.319 --> 00:06:50.839 But we've run down some of our own magazine levels 120 00:06:50.920 --> 00:06:53.279 for that. We also have an Indo pay Coom or 121 00:06:53.319 --> 00:06:56.079 a Payton Command so in charge of the Pacific theater 122 00:06:56.199 --> 00:06:58.120 that has to plan for contingencies. So we have to 123 00:06:58.160 --> 00:07:00.759 keep some patriots in reserve there who knows where they're 124 00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:02.879 on conflict is heading in the coming weeks and months, 125 00:07:02.879 --> 00:07:06.639 and so we really not pulled back. I think this 126 00:07:06.720 --> 00:07:09.519 was somewhat foreseeable. But we haven't been able to deliver 127 00:07:09.600 --> 00:07:12.759 large numbers of patriot interceptors to the Ukrainians, and so 128 00:07:13.079 --> 00:07:16.959 last night, for example, there was a devastating attack on Kiev, 129 00:07:17.040 --> 00:07:20.800 and the Ukrainians basically aren't intercepting with stick missiles anymore. 130 00:07:20.920 --> 00:07:23.720 So the Russian campaign, or I think the Russian calculation 131 00:07:23.920 --> 00:07:26.480 is we might not be able to plow our way 132 00:07:26.519 --> 00:07:29.519 through these defensive formations that Ukraine has in the east, 133 00:07:29.959 --> 00:07:32.639 but winter is just around the corner. The famous General 134 00:07:32.680 --> 00:07:36.360 Winter Russia's best and most able commander. And if they 135 00:07:36.360 --> 00:07:40.480 can get to winter and in the winter then really 136 00:07:40.519 --> 00:07:42.839 go after the critical infrastructure, then they can have a 137 00:07:42.879 --> 00:07:46.000 replay of last winter, one of the coldest in recent 138 00:07:46.079 --> 00:07:50.040 history in Ukraine, where they can take out Ukrainian heating 139 00:07:50.439 --> 00:07:53.199 and basically freeze out the civilian population and forced them 140 00:07:53.240 --> 00:07:57.079 into a one sided so called peace. Now Ukraine started 141 00:07:57.120 --> 00:08:01.600 to really distribute generators. They've you know, invested in solar paneling, 142 00:08:01.879 --> 00:08:04.160 They've tried to decentralized their grid and get ready for this. 143 00:08:04.319 --> 00:08:06.600 But it's a big concern. And so those are the 144 00:08:06.600 --> 00:08:09.639 two battles that are being waged. And because neither side, 145 00:08:10.319 --> 00:08:13.079 both sides have a theory of victory and both sides 146 00:08:13.079 --> 00:08:17.959 see a dynamic battlefield, Kiev and isn't prepared to give 147 00:08:18.000 --> 00:08:20.800 the sort of concessions that Moscow demands, and the Russians 148 00:08:20.800 --> 00:08:24.399 are still asking incredible things of Ukraine. The White House, 149 00:08:25.439 --> 00:08:27.240 I think, is in broad agreement that what the Russians 150 00:08:27.279 --> 00:08:29.480 are asking for they haven't even accomplished on the battlefield 151 00:08:29.519 --> 00:08:31.000 and shouldn't get right now. 152 00:08:31.959 --> 00:08:32.840 So how does this end? 153 00:08:33.000 --> 00:08:37.879 I mean, it sounds like you're describing an intractable problem. 154 00:08:39.080 --> 00:08:42.440 The bottom line for each of the countries is miles 155 00:08:42.480 --> 00:08:48.000 and miles apart. Basically, Putin wants Ukraine to surrender, and 156 00:08:48.720 --> 00:08:51.039 Ukraine is demanding that Russia withdraw and they're not going 157 00:08:51.039 --> 00:08:53.639 to give up territory. Oh, that remains to be seen. 158 00:08:55.080 --> 00:09:01.879 So the Ukrainians survived last winter, notwithstanding the Russian advantage 159 00:09:01.879 --> 00:09:02.960 in ballistic missiles. 160 00:09:03.159 --> 00:09:06.799 So where do we go from here, Well, I'd say 161 00:09:06.799 --> 00:09:10.639 the Ukrainian play. The Ukrainian calculation is that they can 162 00:09:10.679 --> 00:09:13.480 begin to put such absorbit and economic costs on Russia 163 00:09:13.679 --> 00:09:16.279 that the Russians will go for a line of contact agreement, 164 00:09:16.720 --> 00:09:20.120 which Ukraine is prepared to sign up for. So that means, 165 00:09:20.919 --> 00:09:26.120 you know, Russian bond auctions are struggling, their economies weakening, 166 00:09:26.240 --> 00:09:30.200 they have inflationary problems, there's now open infighting between the 167 00:09:30.320 --> 00:09:35.000 Kremlin and the Central Bank, and there may be manpower issues, 168 00:09:35.039 --> 00:09:36.360 or at least the Russians will have to go to 169 00:09:36.399 --> 00:09:39.480 some sort of surreptitious mobilization after the State Duma elections 170 00:09:39.519 --> 00:09:42.279 that's the Russian parliament next month. And last time the 171 00:09:42.360 --> 00:09:45.679 Russians went to a mobilization that it really led to 172 00:09:45.679 --> 00:09:49.720 an exodus of able bodied men into for example, Central Asia. 173 00:09:49.799 --> 00:09:53.039 So basically, the Ukrainians want to put enough pressure on 174 00:09:53.039 --> 00:09:55.960 the Russians or the Russians prepared to engage in what 175 00:09:56.039 --> 00:10:00.120 the Ukrainians would say is a fair and reasonable negotia. 176 00:10:00.320 --> 00:10:02.240 They're not delusional, they don't think that they're going to 177 00:10:02.320 --> 00:10:04.240 get Mary Opal or some of these cities that the 178 00:10:04.320 --> 00:10:07.120 Russians have taken far behind the front lines back anytime soon, 179 00:10:07.600 --> 00:10:09.840 but they at least want a line of contact. And 180 00:10:10.399 --> 00:10:13.200 the Russians, meanwhile, thinks that they can put more pressure 181 00:10:13.399 --> 00:10:18.159 on the Ukrainians and force the Ukrainians to hand over 182 00:10:18.279 --> 00:10:20.720 areas that are very important for their defenses and guard 183 00:10:20.799 --> 00:10:23.639 some of their best cities and some of the defenses 184 00:10:23.679 --> 00:10:26.759 which are really the key to defending across the open 185 00:10:26.759 --> 00:10:29.759 plains of Ukraine all the way to Kiev. And so, 186 00:10:30.320 --> 00:10:34.320 because neither side really is prepared to give into the 187 00:10:34.360 --> 00:10:38.720 other yet we don't have a horizon, or it really 188 00:10:38.759 --> 00:10:40.759 isn't right for negotiations, is how I would put it. 189 00:10:40.799 --> 00:10:44.559 You need either one an absolute scalemate where neither side 190 00:10:44.600 --> 00:10:48.840 sees any dynamism, any potential for progress, or you need 191 00:10:49.480 --> 00:10:53.039 a one sided situation where there's a breakthrough and you 192 00:10:53.080 --> 00:10:56.519 basically have terms being dictated. Those are traditionally classicated conditions 193 00:10:56.519 --> 00:10:59.600 for successful negotiations, and I don't think that's what the 194 00:10:59.679 --> 00:11:00.159 present yea. 195 00:11:00.559 --> 00:11:03.039 Let me ask you this question, what is it significance 196 00:11:04.559 --> 00:11:06.919 of the fact that Russia seems to have some sort 197 00:11:06.919 --> 00:11:10.519 of dependency on the North Koreans in terms of manpower 198 00:11:10.879 --> 00:11:15.519 and technical support. What does it mean to Putin's regime? 199 00:11:15.919 --> 00:11:19.519 What does it mean to Europe that you have this 200 00:11:19.600 --> 00:11:21.559 infiltration of the North Koreans. 201 00:11:21.600 --> 00:11:26.759 There Well, one difference between Ukraine's partners and allies and 202 00:11:26.919 --> 00:11:30.840 Russia's partners and allies is that the Europeans are prepared 203 00:11:30.840 --> 00:11:33.200 to be rather generous and they're support of Ukraine. They 204 00:11:33.279 --> 00:11:37.639 just put together a ninety billion euro so basically one 205 00:11:37.720 --> 00:11:41.399 hundred billion dollar loan package which is unlikely to be 206 00:11:41.440 --> 00:11:44.320 repaid anytime soon to Ukraine. They've emptied out some of 207 00:11:44.360 --> 00:11:47.519 their own ammunition stores and creating their own vulnerabilities to 208 00:11:47.519 --> 00:11:49.879 support Ukraine. But they're not prepared to go fight and 209 00:11:49.919 --> 00:11:54.320 die against Russia and Ukraine, whereas the North Koreans are 210 00:11:54.320 --> 00:11:59.000 prepared to actively deploy troops into Russia during an earlier 211 00:11:59.120 --> 00:12:03.159 round of combat. Now they're setting up a ballistic missile 212 00:12:03.519 --> 00:12:07.320 unit together with the Russians that will fire into into 213 00:12:07.440 --> 00:12:10.720 key Ukrainian positions. And so the North Koreans have died 214 00:12:10.759 --> 00:12:13.919 on the battlefield, and I think that's a pretty demonstrable 215 00:12:14.120 --> 00:12:17.480 and significant difference. Moreover, it has implications for the United 216 00:12:17.519 --> 00:12:22.320 States because in the early moments of North Korea's first intervention, 217 00:12:22.559 --> 00:12:24.960 its first round of support for Ukraine. These were like 218 00:12:25.000 --> 00:12:27.639 North Korean troops running across the open fields and just 219 00:12:27.679 --> 00:12:29.919 being taken out by drones one by one. They were 220 00:12:29.960 --> 00:12:33.720 not really ready for warfare of today. They looked much 221 00:12:33.759 --> 00:12:36.360 more like a North Korean army of the nineteen fifties 222 00:12:36.679 --> 00:12:40.080 fighting General MacArthur and the United Nations forces on the 223 00:12:40.159 --> 00:12:43.480 Korean peninsula. But they're learning, and I think this poses 224 00:12:43.480 --> 00:12:47.519 a real conundrum that raises concerns for South Koreans. It 225 00:12:47.600 --> 00:12:50.879 raises concern for our defense on the Korean peninsula, and 226 00:12:51.399 --> 00:12:53.360 it is in the one way street. I mean, the 227 00:12:53.440 --> 00:12:56.039 North Koreans in return have gotten hard currency, They've gotten 228 00:12:56.039 --> 00:13:01.759 hard cash, They've probably got gotten upgrades areas of military power. 229 00:13:01.840 --> 00:13:05.720 So they had a few satellite tests fail, which are 230 00:13:06.240 --> 00:13:08.960 probably considered to be cover for polistic BISTO program. Then 231 00:13:09.000 --> 00:13:11.279 after the first round of support for the Russian suddenly 232 00:13:11.320 --> 00:13:13.679 they had more success than that program. So the assumption 233 00:13:13.759 --> 00:13:16.399 is that Russian is lending some of its technical expertise 234 00:13:16.799 --> 00:13:19.679 to the North Koreans. So this is a this is 235 00:13:19.720 --> 00:13:22.480 a real concern, and I think it speaks to this 236 00:13:22.559 --> 00:13:27.440 tightening axis of anti American powers in the world, Iran, 237 00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:31.159 North Korea, Russia and China, and an open wound and battlefield. 238 00:13:31.200 --> 00:13:35.559 There is the war in Ukraine. 239 00:13:36.159 --> 00:13:40.120 So one of the I think it was Dwight Eisenhower. 240 00:13:40.159 --> 00:13:43.519 One of his great admonitions was if things aren't going well, 241 00:13:44.399 --> 00:13:47.840 expand the expan the war. So there's been a lot 242 00:13:47.840 --> 00:13:50.200 of talk, at least I've been reading about. It's a 243 00:13:50.200 --> 00:13:53.720 lot of speculation that Putin is contemplating expanding the war 244 00:13:53.759 --> 00:13:56.840 and attacking a NATO nation, either Estonia or Latia seems 245 00:13:56.840 --> 00:13:58.879 to be at the top of the list to see them. 246 00:13:58.960 --> 00:14:01.480 Seem if he could break NATO, see if the Americans 247 00:14:01.519 --> 00:14:05.519 will respond to their Article five obligations or the Europeans 248 00:14:05.519 --> 00:14:09.200 will respond to an Article five obligations and sent troops 249 00:14:09.240 --> 00:14:12.360 and confront Russia. Failing that, that's the end of NATO. 250 00:14:13.919 --> 00:14:16.600 What is your sensus to the likelihood that Putin will 251 00:14:16.600 --> 00:14:18.960 look to expand the war and draw in NATO. 252 00:14:19.960 --> 00:14:23.039 Well, my basic assessment has been for several years now 253 00:14:23.120 --> 00:14:27.159 that the Russian strategic goal is to isolate Ukraine in 254 00:14:27.159 --> 00:14:29.679 a one to one matchup, where Russia's superior size can 255 00:14:29.720 --> 00:14:33.240 grind down the Ukrainians and eventually dictate terms. And so 256 00:14:33.679 --> 00:14:36.080 the saber rattling that we've seen from the Russians at 257 00:14:36.080 --> 00:14:39.360 the nuclear level where they basically inverted the nuclear paradigm. 258 00:14:39.360 --> 00:14:41.080 You know, we think of nuclear weapons as the ultimate 259 00:14:41.080 --> 00:14:43.519 defensive weapon. They've used it to try to coerce the 260 00:14:43.559 --> 00:14:46.919 Europeans away. They've used hybrid measures. Last night there was 261 00:14:46.960 --> 00:14:51.039 an action in the Black Sea where the Romanians and 262 00:14:51.200 --> 00:14:54.600 S sixteen took out a Russian naval drone that was 263 00:14:54.639 --> 00:14:57.200 getting near the next to a major gas field in 264 00:14:57.240 --> 00:15:00.000 the Black Sea that the Romanians are keen on developed 265 00:15:00.120 --> 00:15:03.519 thing that's a hybrid measure as Orislow Funnel, and the 266 00:15:03.519 --> 00:15:07.440 European Commissioned President turned into a hybrid active hybrid warfare 267 00:15:07.480 --> 00:15:09.759 that the Russians are conducting. So at the high end nuclear, 268 00:15:09.799 --> 00:15:12.200 at the low end hybrid. The middle tier, the conventional 269 00:15:12.200 --> 00:15:14.759 powers is stuck in the Ukraine, but he's trying to 270 00:15:14.799 --> 00:15:18.960 push the Europeans and the Americans away by coercing, threatening, 271 00:15:19.080 --> 00:15:22.799 compelling them to leave Ukraine out to dry so it 272 00:15:22.840 --> 00:15:25.159 can be defeated one on one. But there has been 273 00:15:25.159 --> 00:15:28.039 a change. I think that's been broadly. I think the 274 00:15:28.080 --> 00:15:32.360 conventional wisdom which i've mostly shared. I think you're referring 275 00:15:32.399 --> 00:15:34.360 to was a pretty prominent piece in the Wall Street 276 00:15:34.399 --> 00:15:38.159 Journal saying that American intelligence agencies may now be shifting 277 00:15:38.279 --> 00:15:40.519 to say and the Russians could be interested in doing so. 278 00:15:40.600 --> 00:15:43.080 And really, I think it comes down to a couple 279 00:15:43.120 --> 00:15:46.320 of pieces. One is, we've drawn down our interceptors for 280 00:15:46.360 --> 00:15:48.240 the war in Iran. So you could interpret that Wall 281 00:15:48.240 --> 00:15:52.399 Street Journal piece as our intelligence agencies leaking reports to 282 00:15:52.440 --> 00:15:54.799 the press so as to continue the drum breed of 283 00:15:55.399 --> 00:15:59.919 anti Trump news on Operation Epic Fury. But clearly, if 284 00:16:00.000 --> 00:16:02.519 the Russians calculate that we don't have the munition's magazine 285 00:16:02.519 --> 00:16:05.759 depth to engage in a major combat operation outside of 286 00:16:05.759 --> 00:16:07.559 the Middle East at this point, then they might be 287 00:16:07.559 --> 00:16:12.399 more tempted. Secondly, you know, Putin is paying enormous costs 288 00:16:12.480 --> 00:16:16.879 for this relatively slender, small sliver of land in eastern Ukraine, 289 00:16:16.919 --> 00:16:19.240 and he has to justify to his population the cost 290 00:16:19.279 --> 00:16:21.559 of thirty to forty thousand killed are wounded each month, 291 00:16:21.960 --> 00:16:25.000 and basically the destruction of the modern Russian economy. He's 292 00:16:25.000 --> 00:16:26.759 doing that by saying that he's fighting a broader war 293 00:16:26.799 --> 00:16:29.639 against the West, and so how better to make that 294 00:16:29.720 --> 00:16:32.080 kind of scene than to take a shot at a 295 00:16:32.159 --> 00:16:34.960 NATO ally. Third element would be whether or not the 296 00:16:35.039 --> 00:16:37.679 US is resolved to respond, So it depends on the 297 00:16:37.720 --> 00:16:41.320 Cumben's calculations there. And then fourth, and this is less discussed. 298 00:16:41.720 --> 00:16:45.039 Europe is in a dramatic period of rearmament, and you 299 00:16:45.039 --> 00:16:47.279 know the seasons being too slow and flooding, and they 300 00:16:47.279 --> 00:16:49.519 have their issues with procurement and all the rest. But 301 00:16:50.120 --> 00:16:52.639 to put it simply that the Germans are now going 302 00:16:52.679 --> 00:16:54.960 to be spending more than the French and British combined. 303 00:16:55.600 --> 00:16:57.960 Chancellor Mertz, the leader of Germany, has said that he 304 00:16:58.000 --> 00:17:01.120 wants to build the most powerful conventional arm in Europe, 305 00:17:01.240 --> 00:17:03.559 and so the Russians might calculate that in a sort 306 00:17:03.559 --> 00:17:06.359 of net assessment. Now is a window and it will 307 00:17:06.359 --> 00:17:08.720 never get any better, because once all that European defense 308 00:17:08.759 --> 00:17:12.200 spending comes online, the opportunity to exercise sort of a 309 00:17:12.240 --> 00:17:14.720 raventious play the Baltic states which used to be part 310 00:17:14.720 --> 00:17:17.960 of the Soviet Union, will be done. My own personal 311 00:17:17.960 --> 00:17:21.039 opinion is that the Russians like to probe and test, 312 00:17:21.240 --> 00:17:24.440 observe and then react, and so this isn't like a 313 00:17:24.559 --> 00:17:28.079 set Russian calculation or a set Russian game plan. It's 314 00:17:28.119 --> 00:17:32.039 really going to be observing how the West responds and 315 00:17:32.079 --> 00:17:35.640 then acting in an opportunity way thereafter. And quite frankly, 316 00:17:35.640 --> 00:17:37.359 we saw that in Ukraine in the summer of twenty 317 00:17:37.400 --> 00:17:40.440 twenty one. The Russians deployed huge numbers of forces to 318 00:17:40.480 --> 00:17:44.119 the Ukrainian border, then left their kit there, but the 319 00:17:44.200 --> 00:17:47.359 troops themselves withdrew and they observed kind of how the 320 00:17:47.400 --> 00:17:50.799 West responds to that. Putin calculated that the Biden administration 321 00:17:50.839 --> 00:17:53.599 of the Europeans weren't serious enough, and then that ultimately, 322 00:17:53.680 --> 00:17:56.359 I think probably tipped him, along with the disastrous AFGHANICSDAN 323 00:17:56.440 --> 00:18:00.519 withdrawal and other factors, into going full bore dynamics. 324 00:18:00.559 --> 00:18:00.720 Read. 325 00:18:00.759 --> 00:18:03.119 It's a dynamic situation and it really depends also on 326 00:18:03.160 --> 00:18:04.559 the West as much as it does on what's going 327 00:18:04.559 --> 00:18:05.240 on in the Kremlin. 328 00:18:05.960 --> 00:18:10.039 Jesse Peter, thank you for joining us again. It's a 329 00:18:10.079 --> 00:18:12.960 pleasure to hear you and get that update. I was 330 00:18:12.960 --> 00:18:18.319 wondering speaking about Europe and the Russian economy that you 331 00:18:18.640 --> 00:18:19.319 had touched upon. 332 00:18:20.200 --> 00:18:22.440 Where are we on the update. 333 00:18:22.119 --> 00:18:25.559 Where there were some elements of the President was actually 334 00:18:25.640 --> 00:18:29.480 very specifically, very upset about the fact that European countries 335 00:18:29.480 --> 00:18:33.480 were still actually almost funding the war machine, the Russian 336 00:18:33.480 --> 00:18:41.440 war machine against Ukraine by still acquiring gasoline, natural gas 337 00:18:41.480 --> 00:18:42.200 from Russia. 338 00:18:42.240 --> 00:18:43.279 And that's still going on. 339 00:18:43.440 --> 00:18:46.799 Or is that purbed as Europe as Europe has been, 340 00:18:46.960 --> 00:18:49.599 you know, basically going through this era of rearming. 341 00:18:51.240 --> 00:18:54.119 Well it's a great question. It's supposed to being curbed, 342 00:18:54.200 --> 00:18:58.440 and it's ongoing in the sense that the Europeans at 343 00:18:58.480 --> 00:19:01.880 the EU level, So the EU twenty seven countries of 344 00:19:01.920 --> 00:19:06.440 the European Union made a determination that beginning January one, 345 00:19:06.519 --> 00:19:09.279 twenty twenty seven, there will be no longer term contracts 346 00:19:09.519 --> 00:19:13.480 anymore being issued for Russian natural gas, and that's really 347 00:19:13.680 --> 00:19:17.000 LNG that's coming in through say Belajioum, and in France. 348 00:19:17.759 --> 00:19:20.559 The Germans claim that they don't draw any more Russian gas, 349 00:19:20.559 --> 00:19:22.559 but of course some of that LNG's ben tRNS shipped 350 00:19:22.759 --> 00:19:26.039 through the Batalist countries to the German economy, but it's 351 00:19:26.119 --> 00:19:31.640 dramatically reduced. The Hungarians were an exception, as were the Slovaks, 352 00:19:31.759 --> 00:19:35.079 both on oil, which the Europeans no longer take aside 353 00:19:35.079 --> 00:19:39.519 from those exceptions and on gas. But by large, the 354 00:19:39.559 --> 00:19:42.599 consensus the major economies is that they need to move 355 00:19:42.599 --> 00:19:45.119 away from this, I think it's probably acknowledged that, for example, 356 00:19:45.200 --> 00:19:48.839 the famous North Stream two in North Stream pipeline systems 357 00:19:48.880 --> 00:19:53.519 which brought gas from Russia to Germany the a Baltic 358 00:19:53.559 --> 00:19:56.440 Sea pipeline, that that was a mistake, and it's just 359 00:19:56.519 --> 00:20:00.559 a matter of being able to pivot with out so 360 00:20:00.799 --> 00:20:05.440 upending the European economies that they basically de industrialize altogether. 361 00:20:05.759 --> 00:20:08.480 The new major provider of natural gas, in addition to 362 00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:11.880 the Norwegians in Europe and then a few other like 363 00:20:11.880 --> 00:20:14.079 the Qataris and the Algerians and others, is really the 364 00:20:14.160 --> 00:20:16.799 United States. So we've really jumped into the fray. It's 365 00:20:16.839 --> 00:20:18.880 been good for American export business and it's good for 366 00:20:18.880 --> 00:20:21.759 the Europeans. It's forges the title link across the Atlantic. 367 00:20:22.039 --> 00:20:25.799 But basically the calculation is Russian gas. Russian natural gas 368 00:20:25.920 --> 00:20:29.000 is a problem, and it's being wound down, but we're 369 00:20:29.000 --> 00:20:31.559 not there altogether, and given the size of the European economy, 370 00:20:31.599 --> 00:20:34.000 the numbers are still significant. The other thing that I 371 00:20:34.000 --> 00:20:38.640 would point to that's also problematic is Russian's ability to 372 00:20:38.720 --> 00:20:45.240 still source Western components for its weapon systems through exporting 373 00:20:45.319 --> 00:20:49.079 Asian or third country transhipment. And so you have you know, 374 00:20:49.200 --> 00:20:51.480 the Russian which have a manufacturing base, but not a 375 00:20:51.519 --> 00:20:53.839 lot of high technology industries being able to get things 376 00:20:53.880 --> 00:20:56.839 like you know, key components for weapons systems that are 377 00:20:56.920 --> 00:20:59.839 you know, US or European based companies. 378 00:21:00.200 --> 00:21:04.119 Well, Peter on behalf of Jesse and Eric and myself. 379 00:21:04.119 --> 00:21:05.400 I want to thank you very very much. 380 00:21:05.519 --> 00:21:06.599 I wish we had more time. 381 00:21:07.440 --> 00:21:11.920 Absolutely, we'll have to you know, apparently no, of course 382 00:21:11.960 --> 00:21:14.000 you have to come back because apparently Putin is not 383 00:21:14.079 --> 00:21:15.799 giving up and this. 384 00:21:15.880 --> 00:21:18.519 Is right, and so the odds are high you're coming back. 385 00:21:18.359 --> 00:21:21.920 Perhaps absolutely listen, listen, but we bring you back for 386 00:21:22.039 --> 00:21:25.519 coffee and donuts. You know, after war came came to 387 00:21:25.559 --> 00:21:27.160 a conclusion. But it looks like we're going to have 388 00:21:27.160 --> 00:21:29.680 to bring you back to talk about this is ongoing 389 00:21:29.799 --> 00:21:35.079 war of agression by this pathological dictator who doesn't know 390 00:21:36.319 --> 00:21:38.680 that enough is enough. And you have to hand it 391 00:21:38.720 --> 00:21:41.359 to the Olynskin, the Ukrainians. Everybody thought they were going 392 00:21:41.400 --> 00:21:45.200 to be rolled and rolled quickly, including especially the Russians, 393 00:21:45.640 --> 00:21:47.920 and they were not rolled, and they weren't rolled quickly, 394 00:21:48.240 --> 00:21:49.799 and they're still in this. And you have to give 395 00:21:49.839 --> 00:21:54.000 the Ukrainians credit and their advances in military technology is 396 00:21:54.039 --> 00:21:58.039 absolutely extraordinary. In many ways, the revolutionary is the nature 397 00:21:58.079 --> 00:22:00.279 of warfare. So we're going to have you back and 398 00:22:00.319 --> 00:22:04.359 we deeply appreciate it. Thanks for joining us again, and gentlemen, 399 00:22:04.680 --> 00:22:07.160 thank you, thank you, Peter. This has left the record, 400 00:22:07.160 --> 00:22:10.599 show Chairman Jessica see the Republican Party noted attorney, comet 401 00:22:10.839 --> 00:22:14.559